I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
I am expecting a united Ireland too.
An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.
United Ireland is actually less likely than Indy Scotland (which is itself highly unlikely for a decade).
When the covid tsunami drains away, Ulster will realise it is in really quite a good position, in the UK AND the EU single markets. Allow them to lower their corp tax rates, and it will boom
I might be wrong but I think that is their highest daily death rate so far, a year after they began. Awful. Awful.
What is going on? New variants?
Remarkably, by proportion I think Hungary is still increasing by more per day. We had what was hopefully our last tremendously awful wave in January, but tragically others are still in the thick of theirs.
A grinning protester photographed giving a two-fingered salute while sprawled across the front of a torched police van at the height of the Bristol anarchy is the son of a senior civil servant working for the courts service, MailOnline can reveal.
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
I am expecting a united Ireland too.
An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.
Unionist parties continue to win more votes combined than Nationalist parties, so there will not be a United Ireland anytime soon and the Unionist majority in Antrim would certainly never accept direct rule from Dublin which would be as resented as direct rule from Westminster was by the Nationalists on the Irish border before the GFA enshrined powersharing at Stormont
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
I am expecting a united Ireland too.
An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.
It hasn't dawned on quite a lot of people that King Edward I (who was essentially French anyway) died seven centuries ago, and that England doesn't really go in for the empire building thing much nowadays.
The great, great grandson of the last witchfinder general. Nothing else makes sense.
It’s ludicrous contrast of “you can’t export it but we don’t want it” isn’t it? It’s just offensive.
Maybe the plan is to justify banning the export of AZ/Ox to the UK because it is so dangerous all stocks must be impounded and await UN bio weapons inspectors?
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
I am expecting a united Ireland too.
An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.
Unionist parties continue to win more votes combined than Nationalist parties, so there will not be a United Ireland anytime soon and the Unionist majority in Antrim would certainly never accept direct rule from Dublin which would be as resented as direct rule from Westminster was by the Nationalists on the Irish border before the GFA enshrined powersharing at Stormont
But the number of Unionist MPs is in freefall. Only 8 (out of 18 seats) in 2019.
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
As long as Drakeford remains in charge, Wales is actually 'sleepwalking' from Labour to the Tories on the latest Welsh polls today. The pro independence Plaid remain a distant third.
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.
Scotland will not be going anywhere soon while we continue to have a PM committed to respect the once in a generation 2014 vote and with the SNP no longer even sure of a Holyrood majority.
Scotland also voted to stay in the EU so has an alternative to the UK even if it did eventually leave the Union, Wales voted to Leave the EU, so if it left the UK too it would be completely alone, hence Plaid remains a poor third in Wales
#
Scottish independence isn't going to happen in any predictable scenario in the foreseeable future. It's all a stunt now, keeping politicians in a job. There are 10 major obstacles, each one weighty:
1) It's a Westminster issue 2) Once in a generation 3) Scottish support wavers around just over/under 50%. it needs 60+ 4) SNP's capacity to eat itself 5) The hard issues: currency, borders, debt, funding, Bank of last resort, EU, nuclear, economic capacity 6) Getting enough support in May election etc 7) Boris 8) No PM plans it to happen on their watch 9) Labour can't win in E and W if they allow it so they won't 10) Actually winning a referendum if it happened
It's time for America to step up. America is sitting on millions of unused vaccines, with hundreds of millions coming.
This is the one thing which America could do which would re-establish its pre-eminence in the Americas. The Monroe doctrine, but turned into healthcare, not Manifest Destiny.
Fly those jabs south, Joe Biden. Help the Brazilians. This would do more for America - and Brazil - and the West - and the world - than any amount of speechifying and lamenting. It would also prevent South America becoming a living disaster, increasing migratory pressure on the Mexican border
The great, great grandson of the last witchfinder general. Nothing else makes sense.
It’s ludicrous contrast of “you can’t export it but we don’t want it” isn’t it? It’s just offensive.
Maybe the plan is to justify banning the export of AZ/Ox to the UK because it is so dangerous all stocks must be impounded and await UN bio weapons inspectors?
That being the case, perhaps we can offer to dispose of it all via our CBRNE expertise? I think we can quite quickly dispose of about 30m doses.
France is having more data issues. They say that the results of 200,000 tests haven't been able to be integrated with their dataset, so they are unable to publish a figure for the number of positives today.
France has overtaken the UK today in terms of recorded cases despite doing approximately half the level of testing we have. And yet it has 34k fewer recorded deaths. That seems quite remarkable to me.
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
That would be an interesting test, because it has to be said there\s never previously been a period of calm co-existence. Prior to the Union there was obviously the perpetual tension between England and Scotland, English domination of Wales, and reaching even further back, areas such as the West Country maintained a certain ambiguous, Saxon/Brythonic borderland status even quite late on.
I might be wrong but I think that is their highest daily death rate so far, a year after they began. Awful. Awful.
What is going on? New variants?
Blame Bolsonaro.
I suspect he won't be reelected, even if Lula doesnt come back. Apparently they are on their 4th Minister of Health. The new one is actually a Doctor, though since according to the BBC just 2 days ago Bolsonaro was saying the government had done all it could and it was time to reopen the economy, nto sure if that will help.
(someone will point out the death rate on worldometre has their total better than many other places, but even if that is totally accurate, things are clearly changing)
What's a Royal Navy for if it isn't there to get a walrus back to Spitzbergen or somewhere? Call it a NATO exercise. There's a million animal lover votes in this.
France is having more data issues. They say that the results of 200,000 tests haven't been able to be integrated with their dataset, so they are unable to publish a figure for the number of positives today.
France has overtaken the UK today in terms of recorded cases despite doing approximately half the level of testing we have. And yet it has 34k fewer recorded deaths. That seems quite remarkable to me.
They seem to generally have had fewer deaths than Italy even when cases are about the same, which assuming figures are good is positive for them at least.
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
I am expecting a united Ireland too.
An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.
Unionist parties continue to win more votes combined than Nationalist parties, so there will not be a United Ireland anytime soon and the Unionist majority in Antrim would certainly never accept direct rule from Dublin which would be as resented as direct rule from Westminster was by the Nationalists on the Irish border before the GFA enshrined powersharing at Stormont
But the number of Unionist MPs is in freefall. Only 8 (out of 18 seats) in 2019.
Only as North Down went from Unionist Lady Hermon to Alliance (most Alliance voters are soft Unionists there) and in Fermanagh and South Tyrone SF only beat the UUP by just 57 votes.
Overall 43% of NI voters voted DUP and UUP to 38% who voted SF and SDLP in 2019
France is having more data issues. They say that the results of 200,000 tests haven't been able to be integrated with their dataset, so they are unable to publish a figure for the number of positives today.
France has overtaken the UK today in terms of recorded cases despite doing approximately half the level of testing we have. And yet it has 34k fewer recorded deaths. That seems quite remarkable to me.
Possible reasons:
1) More obese slobbery in the UK 2) French healthcare is better 3) France is undercounting (or the UK is overcounting)
What's a Royal Navy for if it isn't there to get a walrus back to Spitzbergen or somewhere? Call it a NATO exercise. There's a million animal lover votes in this.
Some years ago we went on a cruise to the Artic and Spitzbergen and got within 3 miles of Walrus Island, before the ice prevented further progress.
Mind you we were rewarded by sighting a polar bear in its natural habitat on the trip
France is having more data issues. They say that the results of 200,000 tests haven't been able to be integrated with their dataset, so they are unable to publish a figure for the number of positives today.
France has overtaken the UK today in terms of recorded cases despite doing approximately half the level of testing we have. And yet it has 34k fewer recorded deaths. That seems quite remarkable to me.
Possible reasons:
1) More obese slobbery in the UK 2) French healthcare is better 3) France is undercounting (or the UK is overcounting)
My hunch is that Brazil is underreporting due to their health system being close to collapse. It is 122nd in the world so far as tests/million go for instance.
This looks like a poster for the Asquith liberals. The fun starts when the Kill the Bill post-Asquith liberals join in the fun and games. There is no general plan, even from our North Korean style Home Secretary, to prevent ordinary people assembling to complain nicely about something, except you can't do when a plague is killing people, for the same reason that you can't go to a croquet match.
France is having more data issues. They say that the results of 200,000 tests haven't been able to be integrated with their dataset, so they are unable to publish a figure for the number of positives today.
France has overtaken the UK today in terms of recorded cases despite doing approximately half the level of testing we have. And yet it has 34k fewer recorded deaths. That seems quite remarkable to me.
Possible reasons:
1) More obese slobbery in the UK 2) French healthcare is better 3) France is undercounting (or the UK is overcounting)
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
As long as Drakeford remains in charge, Wales is actually 'sleepwalking' from Labour to the Tories on the latest Welsh polls today. The pro independence Plaid remain a distant third.
It would be good to see a non-Yougov poll in Wales - given that their last two GB polls showed evidence of a pro-Tory skew with leads of 13% and 9%.
You said the same in the run up to GE2019 and yet YouGov overestimated the Labour lead in their final two polls.
To be honest I do not recall , but it seems a trifle strange that Yougov are projecting a lower Labour Westminster vote in Wales when pollsters generally show a rise - some substantially so - in their GB vote. From memory, I think Yougov slightly understated the party for the 2016 Assembly election.
France is having more data issues. They say that the results of 200,000 tests haven't been able to be integrated with their dataset, so they are unable to publish a figure for the number of positives today.
France has overtaken the UK today in terms of recorded cases despite doing approximately half the level of testing we have. And yet it has 34k fewer recorded deaths. That seems quite remarkable to me.
Possible reasons:
1) More obese slobbery in the UK 2) French healthcare is better 3) France is undercounting (or the UK is overcounting)
The first two are probably true - though I wouldn't call it obese slobbery, I'd call it WAY better quality of food (for the many) over there. There's no getting away from it, most there eat a lot better, have done for many many years. That makes a huge difference to health.
France is having more data issues. They say that the results of 200,000 tests haven't been able to be integrated with their dataset, so they are unable to publish a figure for the number of positives today.
France has overtaken the UK today in terms of recorded cases despite doing approximately half the level of testing we have. And yet it has 34k fewer recorded deaths. That seems quite remarkable to me.
Possible reasons:
1) More obese slobbery in the UK 2) French healthcare is better 3) France is undercounting (or the UK is overcounting)
I might be wrong but I think that is their highest daily death rate so far, a year after they began. Awful. Awful.
What is going on? New variants?
You seem susceptible to the big numbers fallacy.
That's about 26k cases and 1k deaths pro rata for the UK.
If you want awful numbers take a look at Eastern Europe.
But
1. This has been going on relentlessly in Brazil, it never ebbs, yet now it worsens?
2. We know there is an issue with Brazilian variants, is it happening again?
3. The world should be flying Covax vaccines to Brazil, to prevent more mutation
4. The sheer numbers. The scale of suffering
Their overall death rate is well below ours and indeed that of the US itself. Their death rate would have to remain at their current rate for at least 4 more months to catch up. Hopefully that will not happen.
A grinning protester photographed giving a two-fingered salute while sprawled across the front of a torched police van at the height of the Bristol anarchy is the son of a senior civil servant working for the courts service, MailOnline can reveal.
There’s a recurring idea that we somehow continue to “owe” some sort of duty to EU solidarity; as opposed to us and them choosing to help each other as allies and friends.
That's all this is about, the export ban measures aren't to help the EU, it's to prevent the UK's continued success. Even if we supplied the EU with some vaccines it would be maybe 5m per month, it would make no real difference to the EU programme anyway. They need a 40-50m per month capacity bump. If they'd invested in January it would be coming online now for AZ. The EU chose not to that so we are where we are.
Because, of course, the Germans never "exploited" their early, lower death rate, as a symptom of German sensibleness and clever logicality
FFS
Almost every western country has boasted, at various stages, of their relative success in handling this. All of them have looked foolish, in the end. Very much including Britain, when we thought our pre-pandemic flu plan was the best, then had one of the worst outbreaks in the world.
I hope those who gloat about our "UK vaccine success" learn from this. It could still come back to bite us on the arse. Badly.
The only countries allowed to boast about their success are east Asian. And even then it may be just their lack of obesity, pre-knowledge of SARS, and the fact Chinese boffins in Wuhan obviously designed the virus to hit the West more than the East.
I might be wrong but I think that is their highest daily death rate so far, a year after they began. Awful. Awful.
What is going on? New variants?
You seem susceptible to the big numbers fallacy.
That's about 26k cases and 1k deaths pro rata for the UK.
If you want awful numbers take a look at Eastern Europe.
But
1. This has been going on relentlessly in Brazil, it never ebbs, yet now it worsens?
2. We know there is an issue with Brazilian variants, is it happening again?
3. The world should be flying Covax vaccines to Brazil, to prevent more mutation
4. The sheer numbers. The scale of suffering
Their overall death rate is well below ours and indeed that of the US itself. Their death rate would have to remain at their current rate for at least 4 more months to catch up. Hopefully that will not happen.
I might be wrong but I think that is their highest daily death rate so far, a year after they began. Awful. Awful.
What is going on? New variants?
You seem susceptible to the big numbers fallacy.
That's about 26k cases and 1k deaths pro rata for the UK.
If you want awful numbers take a look at Eastern Europe.
But
1. This has been going on relentlessly in Brazil, it never ebbs, yet now it worsens?
2. We know there is an issue with Brazilian variants, is it happening again?
3. The world should be flying Covax vaccines to Brazil, to prevent more mutation
4. The sheer numbers. The scale of suffering
Their overall death rate is well below ours and indeed that of the US itself. Their death rate would have to remain at their current rate for at least 4 more months to catch up. Hopefully that will not happen.
Given the mass rise in cases and the lagging effect, as well as their persistently high rate even during 'low' periods - it appears the 7 day average has not been below 300 a day since April 2020 - I fear that it very much will. And that assuming good counting.
It does show just hor horrendous our very high rate, and even higher in parts of Eastern Europe, must be.
Bolsonaro is one of the worst leaders at the worst possible time. One foot in the 1970s Junta, one foot in the amazon-burning agribusiness that is harming the entire planet, and one foot in entirely superficial Trumpian culture-war politics.
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
As long as Drakeford remains in charge, Wales is actually 'sleepwalking' from Labour to the Tories on the latest Welsh polls today. The pro independence Plaid remain a distant third.
It would be good to see a non-Yougov poll in Wales - given that their last two GB polls showed evidence of a pro-Tory skew with leads of 13% and 9%.
You said the same in the run up to GE2019 and yet YouGov overestimated the Labour lead in their final two polls.
To be honest I do not recall , but it seems a trifle strange that Yougov are projecting a lower Labour Westminster vote in Wales when pollsters generally show a rise - some substantially so - in their GB vote. From memory, I think Yougov slightly understated the party for the 2016 Assembly election.
The Labour administration are being blamed for the extended lockdown (since mid-December) here in Wales. There is no vaccination bonus for Llafur.
The part about not sharing has already been explained to death - it's not the UK's fault that the EU was slow to invest in capacity, and nor is it the UK's fault that Pfizer decided to go for a smaller number of regional manufacturing sites.
The rest of it is wounded feelings and incomprehension about the fact that not everything about Brexit was a disaster. Which is a great shame, because it's so unnecessary. Why some people in the EU can't just let the UK go off to do its own thing in peace I don't know.
Bolsonaro is one of the worst leaders at the worst possible time. One foot in the 1970s Junta, one foot in the amazon-burning agribusiness that is harming the entire planet, and one foot in entirely superficial Trumpian culture-war politics.
That's not a third foot, it's because he's an enormous cock.
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
I am expecting a united Ireland too.
An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.
It hasn't dawned on quite a lot of people that King Edward I (who was essentially French anyway) died seven centuries ago, and that England doesn't really go in for the empire building thing much nowadays.
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
That would be an interesting test, because it has to be said there\s never previously been a period of calm co-existence. Prior to the Union there was obviously the perpetual tension between England and Scotland, English domination of Wales, and reaching even further back, areas such as the West Country maintained a certain ambiguous, Saxon/Brythonic borderland status even quite late on.
Exactly this - I wonder how we’ll coexist on this relatively small island of ours.
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
As long as Drakeford remains in charge, Wales is actually 'sleepwalking' from Labour to the Tories on the latest Welsh polls today. The pro independence Plaid remain a distant third.
It would be good to see a non-Yougov poll in Wales - given that their last two GB polls showed evidence of a pro-Tory skew with leads of 13% and 9%.
You said the same in the run up to GE2019 and yet YouGov overestimated the Labour lead in their final two polls.
To be honest I do not recall , but it seems a trifle strange that Yougov are projecting a lower Labour Westminster vote in Wales when pollsters generally show a rise - some substantially so - in their GB vote. From memory, I think Yougov slightly understated the party for the 2016 Assembly election.
The Labour administration are being blamed for the extended lockdown (since mid-December) here in Wales. There is no vaccination bonus for Llafur.
I would not expect that to be reflected in a Westminster election - maybe for the Assembly. A 35% share for Westminster when Labour managed nearly 41% in Wales in 2019 - compared with 33% across GB - seems unlikely. On the Vote UK ,doubts have been expressed as to whether the poll passes the 'smell' test.
Ze, not he. Its sex is difficult to ascertain, so I was informed by R4 this morning.
Misgendering an arctic walrus! Whatever next?
The Walrus and the Carpenter Lewis Carroll
The sun was shining on the sea, Shining with all his might: He did his very best to make The billows smooth and bright— And this was odd, because it was The middle of the night. . . . .
The Walrus and the Carpenter Were walking close at hand: They wept like anything to see Such quantities of sand: "If this were only cleared away," They said, "it would be grand!" . . . .
"O Oysters, come and walk with us!" The Walrus did beseech. "A pleasant walk, a pleasant talk, Along the briny beach: We cannot do with more than four, To give a hand to each." . . . .
"The time has come," the Walrus said, "To talk of many things: Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax— Of cabbages—and kings— And why the sea is boiling hot— And whether pigs have wings." . . . .
"A loaf of bread," the Walrus said, "Is what we chiefly need: Pepper and vinegar besides Are very good indeed— Now, if you're ready, Oysters dear, We can begin to feed." . . . . "I weep for you," the Walrus said: "I deeply sympathize." With sobs and tears he sorted out Those of the largest size, Holding his pocket-handkerchief Before his streaming eyes.
"O Oysters," said the Carpenter, "You've had a pleasant run! Shall we be trotting home again?" But answer came there none— And this was scarcely odd, because They'd eaten every one.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
I think the Tories are good value at evens, and have backed them on BFx.
As well as your points, I notice strong support on Corbynite Twitter for the Northern Independence Party. They won't win, but they will reduce the Labour vote.
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.
Scotland will not be going anywhere soon while we continue to have a PM committed to respect the once in a generation 2014 vote and with the SNP no longer even sure of a Holyrood majority.
Scotland also voted to stay in the EU so has an alternative to the UK even if it did eventually leave the Union, Wales voted to Leave the EU, so if it left the UK too it would be completely alone, hence Plaid remains a poor third in Wales
#
Scottish independence isn't going to happen in any predictable scenario in the foreseeable future. It's all a stunt now, keeping politicians in a job. There are 10 major obstacles, each one weighty:
1) It's a Westminster issue 2) Once in a generation 3) Scottish support wavers around just over/under 50%. it needs 60+ 4) SNP's capacity to eat itself 5) The hard issues: currency, borders, debt, funding, Bank of last resort, EU, nuclear, economic capacity 6) Getting enough support in May election etc 7) Boris 8) No PM plans it to happen on their watch 9) Labour can't win in E and W if they allow it so they won't 10) Actually winning a referendum if it happened
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
I think the Tories are good value at evens, and have backed them on BFx.
As well as your points, I notice strong support on Corbynite Twitter for the Northern Independence Party. They won't win, but they will reduce the Labour vote.
Yes I'm also on the Cons at evens. I'm seeing this one as telling us a lot about Labour's chances next time.
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
I am expecting a united Ireland too.
An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.
It hasn't dawned on quite a lot of people that King Edward I (who was essentially French anyway) died seven centuries ago, and that England doesn't really go in for the empire building thing much nowadays.
I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
That would be an interesting test, because it has to be said there\s never previously been a period of calm co-existence. Prior to the Union there was obviously the perpetual tension between England and Scotland, English domination of Wales, and reaching even further back, areas such as the West Country maintained a certain ambiguous, Saxon/Brythonic borderland status even quite late on.
Exactly this - I wonder how we’ll coexist on this relatively small island of ours.
Grr. Great Britain is the 8th biggest island in the world. It is not in any way a small island. I take your point that we are a lot of people withun a relatively small area of land. But we are not on a 'small' island.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Is it right to assume Tice's vote will collapse if he stands again?
Comments
When the covid tsunami drains away, Ulster will realise it is in really quite a good position, in the UK AND the EU single markets. Allow them to lower their corp tax rates, and it will boom
"Staff at a local garage where Richard takes his Ford Focus for servicing were astonished to learn of his role in the Bristol protests."
That's about 26k cases and 1k deaths pro rata for the UK.
If you want awful numbers take a look at Eastern Europe.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0320/1205199-kerry-arctic-walrus-wales/
https://twitter.com/MaryLouMcDonald/status/1373734096711651328
Scottish independence isn't going to happen in any predictable scenario in the foreseeable future. It's all a stunt now, keeping politicians in a job. There are 10 major obstacles, each one weighty:
1) It's a Westminster issue
2) Once in a generation
3) Scottish support wavers around just over/under 50%. it needs 60+
4) SNP's capacity to eat itself
5) The hard issues: currency, borders, debt, funding, Bank of last resort, EU, nuclear, economic capacity
6) Getting enough support in May election etc
7) Boris
8) No PM plans it to happen on their watch
9) Labour can't win in E and W if they allow it so they won't
10) Actually winning a referendum if it happened
This is the one thing which America could do which would re-establish its pre-eminence in the Americas. The Monroe doctrine, but turned into healthcare, not Manifest Destiny.
Fly those jabs south, Joe Biden. Help the Brazilians. This would do more for America - and Brazil - and the West - and the world - than any amount of speechifying and lamenting. It would also prevent South America becoming a living disaster, increasing migratory pressure on the Mexican border
Go, Joe!
Different places, different effects.
The state of the Lib Dems in Wales? Less so
(someone will point out the death rate on worldometre has their total better than many other places, but even if that is totally accurate, things are clearly changing)
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1374467361198075915/photo/1
1. This has been going on relentlessly in Brazil, it never ebbs, yet now it worsens?
2. We know there is an issue with Brazilian variants, is it happening again?
3. The world should be flying Covax vaccines to Brazil, to prevent more mutation
4. The sheer numbers. The scale of suffering
Overall 43% of NI voters voted DUP and UUP to 38% who voted SF and SDLP in 2019
1) More obese slobbery in the UK
2) French healthcare is better
3) France is undercounting (or the UK is overcounting)
Mind you we were rewarded by sighting a polar bear in its natural habitat on the trip
https://twitter.com/cuMeyer/status/1374315948333793280
The situation is Brazil is indeed horrific and Bolsanaro is a Trumpian disaster.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1374465213911638017
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
Compare
Brazil
Covid deaths 190k, excess deaths 217k
Peru
Covid deaths 46k, excess deaths 116k
Mexico
Covid deaths 128k, excess deaths 307k
Ecuador
Covid deaths 14k, excess deaths 41k
Bolivia
Covid deaths 4k, excess deaths 23k
Data is a bit old but you see the pattern.
FFS
Almost every western country has boasted, at various stages, of their relative success in handling this. All of them have looked foolish, in the end. Very much including Britain, when we thought our pre-pandemic flu plan was the best, then had one of the worst outbreaks in the world.
I hope those who gloat about our "UK vaccine success" learn from this. It could still come back to bite us on the arse. Badly.
The only countries allowed to boast about their success are east Asian. And even then it may be just their lack of obesity, pre-knowledge of SARS, and the fact Chinese boffins in Wuhan obviously designed the virus to hit the West more than the East.
It does show just hor horrendous our very high rate, and even higher in parts of Eastern Europe, must be.
The rest of it is wounded feelings and incomprehension about the fact that not everything about Brexit was a disaster. Which is a great shame, because it's so unnecessary. Why some people in the EU can't just let the UK go off to do its own thing in peace I don't know.
Whatever next?
They are utter Pascal Gaüzères.
NEW THREAD
Lewis Carroll
The sun was shining on the sea,
Shining with all his might:
He did his very best to make
The billows smooth and bright—
And this was odd, because it was
The middle of the night.
. . . .
The Walrus and the Carpenter
Were walking close at hand:
They wept like anything to see
Such quantities of sand:
"If this were only cleared away,"
They said, "it would be grand!"
. . . .
"O Oysters, come and walk with us!"
The Walrus did beseech.
"A pleasant walk, a pleasant talk,
Along the briny beach:
We cannot do with more than four,
To give a hand to each."
. . . .
"The time has come," the Walrus said,
"To talk of many things:
Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
Of cabbages—and kings—
And why the sea is boiling hot—
And whether pigs have wings."
. . . .
"A loaf of bread," the Walrus said,
"Is what we chiefly need:
Pepper and vinegar besides
Are very good indeed—
Now, if you're ready, Oysters dear,
We can begin to feed."
. . . .
"I weep for you," the Walrus said:
"I deeply sympathize."
With sobs and tears he sorted out
Those of the largest size,
Holding his pocket-handkerchief
Before his streaming eyes.
"O Oysters," said the Carpenter,
"You've had a pleasant run!
Shall we be trotting home again?"
But answer came there none—
And this was scarcely odd, because
They'd eaten every one.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
As well as your points, I notice strong support on Corbynite Twitter for the Northern Independence Party. They won't win, but they will reduce the Labour vote.
Great Britain is the 8th biggest island in the world. It is not in any way a small island.
I take your point that we are a lot of people withun a relatively small area of land. But we are not on a 'small' island.
https://twitter.com/nchrysoloras/status/1375091713425965064