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What makes an effective protest – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 23 in General
imageWhat makes an effective protest – politicalbetting.com

One which changes a government’s intended actions or leads it to do something it might not otherwise have done?

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,538
    edited March 23
    First
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 4,537
    edited March 23
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199
    edited March 23
    In the UK, as soon as a protest / protest movement gets the reputation as using violence they are done for in terms of public support*. Where as the French, I believe their dictionary definition includes the condition that it can't be defined as one, unless rocks are being thrown, fires are burning and having a good fight with the plod.

    * Yes there are exceptions in history, but not in recent past. Student protests, anti-cuts, anti-globalization, anti-statue toppling, even BLM, as soon as got violent down the tubes.
  • TimT said:

    Yay!! Just heard that I will be getting my appointment for my first Moderna shot. Just waiting on the second email.

    Hooray!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    TimT said:

    Yay!! Just heard that I will be getting my appointment for my first Moderna shot. Just waiting on the second email.

    Interesting. I don't think anyone else on PB has had Moderna shot yet. You can report back.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199
    edited March 23

    TimT said:

    Yay!! Just heard that I will be getting my appointment for my first Moderna shot. Just waiting on the second email.

    Interesting. I don't think anyone else on PB has had Moderna shot yet. You can report back.
    I thought Robert Smithson did?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,092

    In the UK, as soon as a protest / protest movement gets the reputation as using violence they are done for in terms of public support. Where as the French, I believe their dictionary definition includes the condition that it can't be defined as one, unless rocks are being thrown, fires are burning and having a good fight with the plod.

    The Bristol mob need to have a size 10 jackboot across their throats
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,448

    TimT said:

    Yay!! Just heard that I will be getting my appointment for my first Moderna shot. Just waiting on the second email.

    Interesting. I don't think anyone else on PB has had Moderna shot yet. You can report back.
    @TimT - do you live in the UK?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199
    edited March 23
    Leon said:
    Its full tin foil hat stuff / they didn't understand what they agreed to with AZN, where as for once it seems like the British government vaccine team did....perhaps we should have had the vaccine team do the Brexit negotiations.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,244
    Leon said:
    It ignores the fact that AZN had a large shortfall before a single EU dose was due for delivery.
    The simple fact is that they were unable to ramp up production as fast as they had planned - which was always a risk with a novel vaccine.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,381
    Surely the most important thing about a protest is to make the protestors feel good about themselves and to convince them of the rightness of their cause. So you are surrounded by like minded folk who seem perfectly decent and reasonable and, well, like me really. The second most important thing is to persuade. The point of the protest is not to change things in themselves but show the strength of feeling and make others think about it. This is an important public good. Without protest issues that are still fixable and which genuinely need to be addressed tend to get ignored.
    So I agree with @Cyclefree that protest is not really about protest at all. Its about persuasion. You want to make the rest of the country listen. Setting fire to police vans or hurting cops or damaging property is not persuasive, it pisses people off. If you want a successful protest don't do it. QED
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1374399376282382341

    Note the Zoe figure though. Hope a blip.
  • I've only ever taken part in one protest.

    The Justice for the 96 protest during the start of the Arsenal match in January 2007.

    It did work, eventually.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,402
    On topic, on very recent evidence a vonc must be about the shittest.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,317
    All very sensible stuff. It just strikes me how much easier it is to recall unsuccessful protests than successful ones. Are there some good recent examples of how following these principles can "change a government’s intended actions or leads it to do something it might not otherwise have done"?

    I can think of, off the top of my head, Joanna Lumley and justice for Ghurkas, and (arguably) the fuel tax protests. Maybe a select few of the strike actions, like the firefighters' one.

    Foxhunting, the Iraq War, anti-Brexit - I would say all of those had huge support and followed all those rules, more-or-less. All failed totally.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,012
    edited March 23
    Thich Quang Duc was a successful protestor.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thích_Quảng_Đức
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 4,537

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1374399376282382341

    Note the Zoe figure though. Hope a blip.

    What does a blip matter?

    Now you have had your vaccine, you can expect freedom. Its the quickest way to freedom, right? getting the vaccine?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,035

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1374399376282382341

    Note the Zoe figure though. Hope a blip.

    What does a blip matter?

    Now you have had your vaccine, you can expect freedom. Its the quickest way to freedom, right? getting the vaccine?

    One person gets vaccinated and we open up?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 4,537
    Judging by Chris Whitty's comments today. all we can expect from today's press conference is another giant dollop of gloom.

    I hope you are bracing yourselves.
  • https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1374399376282382341

    Note the Zoe figure though. Hope a blip.

    What does a blip matter?

    Now you have had your vaccine, you can expect freedom. Its the quickest way to freedom, right? getting the vaccine?

    Yes, one a sufficient portion of the population is (fully) vaccinated then we get freedom.

    If a sufficient number Idiots refuse to get vaccinated when it is their time then there will be a hold up.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058

    Leon said:
    Its full tin foil hat stuff / they didn't understand what they agreed to with AZN, where as for once it seems like the British government vaccine team did....perhaps we should have had the vaccine team do the Brexit negotiations.
    Kate Bingham to renegotiate Brexit? Brilliant idea.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,291
    Cookie said:

    TimT said:

    Yay!! Just heard that I will be getting my appointment for my first Moderna shot. Just waiting on the second email.

    Interesting. I don't think anyone else on PB has had Moderna shot yet. You can report back.
    @TimT - do you live in the UK?
    This is Montgomery County, MD. Home to the NIH and Navy/Walter Reid. And Novavax
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,439
    Excellent article:

    "This is perhaps the most uncomfortable aspect of the new legislation: that the government isn’t just trying to control who comes into the country, but extending its control over who goes out. If other countries are accepting of visitors, for any variety of reasons, it seems a much deeper infringement on personal liberty that the UK government would stop people from leaving."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,381
    So Halix.

    AIUI is not a large facility at all. This is it: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9391335/Factory-heart-EU-row-supplied-us.html
    It produced stuff which was needed when AZ was being tested. It is not approved for the manufacture of vaccine by either the EU or indeed the UK. We have apparently received some vaccine from there but its use is not yet approved in the UK either.

    Which seems on the face of it to make this all rather ridiculous. The EU cannot "steal" our vaccine because it is not authorised for use. Given the lack of authorisation it is not obvious how we can use it to meet our forthcoming shortfall either. Its also a vaccine on which the EU are not very keen and of which they seem to have fairly significant stocks. All very odd.

    What the EU are doing is destroying their reputation as a rules based organisation for no obvious benefit whatsoever. It is truly bizarre. Are there no adults left in the room at all?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,137
    Endillion said:

    All very sensible stuff. It just strikes me how much easier it is to recall unsuccessful protests than successful ones. Are there some good recent examples of how following these principles can "change a government’s intended actions or leads it to do something it might not otherwise have done"?

    I can think of, off the top of my head, Joanna Lumley and justice for Ghurkas, and (arguably) the fuel tax protests. Maybe a select few of the strike actions, like the firefighters' one.

    Foxhunting, the Iraq War, anti-Brexit - I would say all of those had huge support and followed all those rules, more-or-less. All failed totally.

    I remember cycling past an anti-EU protest at the local council offices circa mid-noughties. What that achieved was a sense of collective action for those involved, they knew they weren't alone, and it kept the issue visible.

    And now we're out of the EU. At the time I think they were only concerned with keeping the UK out of the Euro. Bit of an overachievement.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,402
    dixiedean said:

    Thich Quang Duc was a successful protestor.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thích_Quảng_Đức

    I'm ashamed to say I couldn't remember exactly why he made his protest.

    I suppose he and Palach have attained immortality regardless of the success or otherwise of their protests. The Tunisian who burned himself to death certainly started a chain of events..
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,316
    "BBC announces coverage plans for upcoming elections in Wales and Scotland, alongside local and mayoral elections in England

    The BBC has announced its plans for the upcoming elections in Wales, Scotland and the local and mayoral elections in England. Its comprehensive coverage will include televised leaders’ debates, extensive online information, and in-depth results coverage"

    https://www.bbc.com/mediacentre/2021/elections/
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,935
    edited March 23
    Endillion said:

    All very sensible stuff. It just strikes me how much easier it is to recall unsuccessful protests than successful ones. Are there some good recent examples of how following these principles can "change a government’s intended actions or leads it to do something it might not otherwise have done"?

    I can think of, off the top of my head, Joanna Lumley and justice for Ghurkas, and (arguably) the fuel tax protests. Maybe a select few of the strike actions, like the firefighters' one.

    Foxhunting, the Iraq War, anti-Brexit - I would say all of those had huge support and followed all those rules, more-or-less. All failed totally.

    There were two and two only big demonstrations I can remember where people I know went on them of the sort who (like me) 'never go on demonstrations'. They were the second Iraq war and the Countryside Alliance over hunting.

    Both causes (IMHO) were and are absolutely right, one mostly supported on the centre right, and one mostly on the centre liberal/left, and mass protest achieved nothing.

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,176
    edited March 23
    Stocky said:

    Excellent article:

    "This is perhaps the most uncomfortable aspect of the new legislation: that the government isn’t just trying to control who comes into the country, but extending its control over who goes out. If other countries are accepting of visitors, for any variety of reasons, it seems a much deeper infringement on personal liberty that the UK government would stop people from leaving."
    And if the people we allow out return with variants that delay our unlocking, you'll be OK with that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    Get the law abiding on side - important, and shouldn't be as hard as some politicians make it seem. The obsessive perennial protestors get too much attention, and make it easier for the government to ignore the actual issue being protested about. They are among the most ineffective protestors out there. Pick your battles, be focused, and don't allow the hijackers to appear representative.

    Win the fairness battle - I think the end point is a better way of putting it. Make government supporters uneasy, don't reinforce their views. Don't do the government's job for it.

    Reach out for allies - interesting one, since as noted in the piece the piggy backers are not the ones you want to ally with but they make themselves your allies. Not sure how to make this work then - not being pure opens up your coalition, but increases the chance of hijacking.

    Get real - Agree 100%. Evidence to the contrary, people are not stupid, and they might really dislike things but they know things are not as terrible as the perennials insist. It doesn't mean you have to water down your radical proposals, just put them in the actual context and people might still like it.

    Behave as if you want Britain to be as good as it can be - basically a corrollary to the above. It's much harder than falling back on cliched revolutionary sloganeering, but it is much more effective. Sure, appealing to your opponents that they are letting themselves down usually won't work, but there will be an audience there, and more among the public. If nothing else, acknowledging we might have good points but need to improve is something people believe can be achieved, whereas if we are utterly bereft and corrupt what's the bloody point?

    Have a genuine grievance - Nothing to add rally. Sure, hard to decide which protests merit what level of fervour, but when viewed on the news they all look the same, so save the intense stuff for when it matters, if you can.

    Don't appropriate others' concerns for your own ends - the original sin of a lot of protests.

    Do the unexpected/use some imagination - hard to plan for really. Some catchy image or gimmick that appears spontaneous might work, but that's hardly easy and most such plans will look naff.

    Silence and non-violence - As you note, it can be hard, but others manage it. And ultimately, is this about you releasing your rage and looking cool, or do you want to aid the cause?

    One for the government - yes they should, and people doing the above will make it harder to not at least try to listen, as they'll look like cocks.

  • eekeek Posts: 11,669
    DavidL said:

    So Halix.

    AIUI is not a large facility at all. This is it: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9391335/Factory-heart-EU-row-supplied-us.html
    It produced stuff which was needed when AZ was being tested. It is not approved for the manufacture of vaccine by either the EU or indeed the UK. We have apparently received some vaccine from there but its use is not yet approved in the UK either.

    Which seems on the face of it to make this all rather ridiculous. The EU cannot "steal" our vaccine because it is not authorised for use. Given the lack of authorisation it is not obvious how we can use it to meet our forthcoming shortfall either. Its also a vaccine on which the EU are not very keen and of which they seem to have fairly significant stocks. All very odd.

    What the EU are doing is destroying their reputation as a rules based organisation for no obvious benefit whatsoever. It is truly bizarre. Are there no adults left in the room at all?

    There are destroying their reputation as a rules based organisation as the other option is to admit that the EU has screwed up the purchasing of vaccines so as the UK starts to return to normal vast parts of the EU are going to implementing their third (or even fourth) lockdown.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,316
    Does anyone know what this is all about?

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1374400918548934667
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    Leon said:
    Unless they have proof to back up their suspicions, leaking such rumours is dangerous and incredibly twattish behaviour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142

    Judging by Chris Whitty's comments today. all we can expect from today's press conference is another giant dollop of gloom.

    I hope you are bracing yourselves.

    I'm permanently braced.

    It's hell on the back muscles, I can tell you.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,012
    " Why would others listen to people who appear to hate the country and people in it?"

    Sounds familiar.....
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone know what this is all about?

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1374400918548934667

    If they target the US or US companies they have gone mad.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 4,537
    Stocky said:

    Excellent article:

    "This is perhaps the most uncomfortable aspect of the new legislation: that the government isn’t just trying to control who comes into the country, but extending its control over who goes out. If other countries are accepting of visitors, for any variety of reasons, it seems a much deeper infringement on personal liberty that the UK government would stop people from leaving."
    Not having had the vaccine, I am not expecting to be allowed abroad, or in pubs or restaurants, or football matches, or even my place of work as a result.

    That's my fault. I may or may not be a stupid idiot for acting like that. And at some juncture it may well occur to me I am a stupid idiot, and I will get the vaccine.

    But the rest of you should be effing furious. You locked down. You got the vaccine when asked. You played ball. YO You are still in prison.

    And relying on the people who put you in prison, to get you out of prison. After they reneged on a bucket of other promises.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 2,908
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone know what this is all about?

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1374400918548934667

    Well the EU have won the war with the UK so comprehensively that they're planning on unleashing their masterplan on the US.

    That or the lunatics are running the asylum.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,012
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1374390257483796491

    Insanity appears to be descending on the mainland
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,935
    edited March 23
    For a number of less than adequate people the point of protest (including violence in some cases) is protest itself. The actual change demanded is only marginally relevant because if it were achieved the same people would move on to the next thing.

    A few decades ago the plan to increase the number of nuclear warheads would have dominated the protest industry. The threat from nuclear weapons is absolutely identical to the threat when CND etc commanded millions on the streets. The effects of them being used is unchanged. Hardly a squeak by comparison. Our single issue friends have moved on.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,798
    Good afternoon everyone.

    Did I read that Labour abstained on the Sturgeon vote? SLAB obviously taking its lead from Starmer.
    A bloody relief if true. There's no point in opening travel corridors until the destination countries are in a similar position w.r.t. vaccination and viral suppression as we are, and it looks like that may take a goodly while in most cases.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    Endillion said:

    All very sensible stuff. It just strikes me how much easier it is to recall unsuccessful protests than successful ones. Are there some good recent examples of how following these principles can "change a government’s intended actions or leads it to do something it might not otherwise have done"?

    I can think of, off the top of my head, Joanna Lumley and justice for Ghurkas, and (arguably) the fuel tax protests. Maybe a select few of the strike actions, like the firefighters' one.

    Foxhunting, the Iraq War, anti-Brexit - I would say all of those had huge support and followed all those rules, more-or-less. All failed totally.

    Thing is, merely having large amounts of support isn't enough. The issue itself matters. Things like war and Brexit are either dependent on things quite distinct from public opinion or have masses of support of their own. Protesting them is not meaningless, but they just weren't simple enough to change just because many people disliked them.
  • TazTaz Posts: 52
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Unless they have proof to back up their suspicions, leaking such rumours is dangerous and incredibly twattish behaviour.
    But not out of character.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1374390257483796491

    Insanity appears to be descending on the mainland

    And they've got lots of vaccines coming anyway! It's been slower than everyone wanted, but won't be an issue for too much longer.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 4,537

    Stocky said:

    Excellent article:

    "This is perhaps the most uncomfortable aspect of the new legislation: that the government isn’t just trying to control who comes into the country, but extending its control over who goes out. If other countries are accepting of visitors, for any variety of reasons, it seems a much deeper infringement on personal liberty that the UK government would stop people from leaving."
    And if the people we allow out return with variants that delay our unlocking, you'll be OK with that?
    Can you honestly envisage a time when viruses won't mutate? ever? Why would they break the habit of billions of years?

    This isn't a viable policy without an eternal ban on coming in and going out of Britain. Its just the logical conclusion of an utterly failed and catastrophic policy.
  • TazTaz Posts: 52
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone know what this is all about?

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1374400918548934667

    What the EU seems to believe is a commitment, in the case of the AZ contract, isn’t anything more than a statement of intent given it’s a best endeavours contract.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,935
    Chameleon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone know what this is all about?

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1374400918548934667

    Well the EU have won the war with the UK so comprehensively that they're planning on unleashing their masterplan on the US.

    That or the lunatics are running the asylum.
    Looking ahead, one possible effect of the incomprehensible mess the EU appear to be in over both getting vaccination done and using bullying sounding threats, is that the UK debate will move to a different level. Maybe we can move on from Brexit - right or wrong? to Brexit - what do we do about being the UK in the actual world. EU supporters/defenders etc in the UK seem to have gone a bit quiet.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,176

    Stocky said:

    Excellent article:

    "This is perhaps the most uncomfortable aspect of the new legislation: that the government isn’t just trying to control who comes into the country, but extending its control over who goes out. If other countries are accepting of visitors, for any variety of reasons, it seems a much deeper infringement on personal liberty that the UK government would stop people from leaving."
    And if the people we allow out return with variants that delay our unlocking, you'll be OK with that?
    Can you honestly envisage a time when viruses won't mutate? ever? Why would they break the habit of billions of years?

    This isn't a viable policy without an eternal ban on coming in and going out of Britain. Its just the logical conclusion of an utterly failed and catastrophic policy.
    You may rest assured that I will always fight for your right to leave the country...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,599
    A 'successful' protest needs to be one calling for something the big players (media, Government, multinationals) wanted to do anyway. The protest adds legitimacy, and accordingly, it will be given warm coverage.

    A protest against something those organisations want, is not going to be 'successful' - its ugliest face will be front page news.

    Obviously it's not always that simple - sometimes two powerful actors want different things. Sometimes the coverage won't all be slanted, where there's more media freedom etc.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020
    Stocky said:

    Excellent article:

    "This is perhaps the most uncomfortable aspect of the new legislation: that the government isn’t just trying to control who comes into the country, but extending its control over who goes out. If other countries are accepting of visitors, for any variety of reasons, it seems a much deeper infringement on personal liberty that the UK government would stop people from leaving."
    Yes, I must admit it's not clear to me the rationale for stopping people leaving. Surely you stop them arriving (or at least quarantine at their own cost)?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,458
    edited March 23
    There has been a Hartlepool poll and its terrible reading for Labour.

    Luckily for them its only on the Hartlepool United football forum.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,669
    Brom said:

    There has been a Hartlepool poll and its terrible reading for Labour.

    Luckily for them its only on the Hartlepool United football forum.

    It really wouldn't surprise me if it's accurate though
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020

    Stocky said:

    Excellent article:

    "This is perhaps the most uncomfortable aspect of the new legislation: that the government isn’t just trying to control who comes into the country, but extending its control over who goes out. If other countries are accepting of visitors, for any variety of reasons, it seems a much deeper infringement on personal liberty that the UK government would stop people from leaving."
    Not having had the vaccine, I am not expecting to be allowed abroad, or in pubs or restaurants, or football matches, or even my place of work as a result.

    That's my fault. I may or may not be a stupid idiot for acting like that. And at some juncture it may well occur to me I am a stupid idiot, and I will get the vaccine.

    But the rest of you should be effing furious. You locked down. You got the vaccine when asked. You played ball. YO You are still in prison.

    And relying on the people who put you in prison, to get you out of prison. After they reneged on a bucket of other promises.
    I still don't understand why you didn't get the vaccine when offered it? It makes no sense whatsoever.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,316
    Brom said:

    There has been a Hartlepool poll and its terrible reading for Labour.

    Luckily for them its only on the Hartlepool United football forum.

    What are the figures?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100k population

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK local R

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376

    Stocky said:

    Excellent article:

    "This is perhaps the most uncomfortable aspect of the new legislation: that the government isn’t just trying to control who comes into the country, but extending its control over who goes out. If other countries are accepting of visitors, for any variety of reasons, it seems a much deeper infringement on personal liberty that the UK government would stop people from leaving."
    Not having had the vaccine, I am not expecting to be allowed abroad, or in pubs or restaurants, or football matches, or even my place of work as a result.

    That's my fault. I may or may not be a stupid idiot for acting like that. And at some juncture it may well occur to me I am a stupid idiot, and I will get the vaccine.

    But the rest of you should be effing furious. You locked down. You got the vaccine when asked. You played ball. YO You are still in prison.

    And relying on the people who put you in prison, to get you out of prison. After they reneged on a bucket of other promises.
    I still don't understand why you didn't get the vaccine when offered it? It makes no sense whatsoever.
    You’re expecting sense from someone who proudly identifies as a contrarian?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK cases summary

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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,402

    Good afternoon everyone.

    Did I read that Labour abstained on the Sturgeon vote? SLAB obviously taking its lead from Starmer.

    Don't think so, Starmer was shooting his mouth off about how Sturgeon should resign even if she had unknowingly broken the ministerial code just a few days ago.
    Sarwar has wisely decided that with the SCons being the petty, vindictive small people consumed with hatred of the EssEnnPee in the room, he might as well gain some credibility by showing a hint of pragmatic principle (or more cynically that he realised that the whole 'get Nippy' thing had turned into a clown car crash). I'm sticking with my prediction of SLab ousting the SCons as second party in May.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK hospitals

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,240
    Flabbergasting. The DSMB committee that have oversight of the Astrazeneca trial in the US apparently told AZ to state a 69%-74% efficacy figure for the vaccine based on the most up-to-date trial data. AZ went ahead with a 79% efficacy rate in their press release based on old data, without any indication that this wasn't official data.


    https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1374389013356769287
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 2,908
    Andy_JS said:

    Brom said:

    There has been a Hartlepool poll and its terrible reading for Labour.

    Luckily for them its only on the Hartlepool United football forum.

    What are the figures?
    20 Con, 8 Lab, 1 Tice
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK deaths

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  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,052
    A rather patronising header. It all depends what the objective of the protest is. According to your analysis the 1,000,000 plus who demonstated against the Iraq invasion should have been one of the most successful ever. In fact it achieved nothing. Historically the more havoc the protesters wreak the more successful the action. Protest works when the authorities are goaded into violent counter measures.
  • Stocky said:

    Excellent article:

    "This is perhaps the most uncomfortable aspect of the new legislation: that the government isn’t just trying to control who comes into the country, but extending its control over who goes out. If other countries are accepting of visitors, for any variety of reasons, it seems a much deeper infringement on personal liberty that the UK government would stop people from leaving."
    Not having had the vaccine, I am not expecting to be allowed abroad, or in pubs or restaurants, or football matches, or even my place of work as a result.

    That's my fault. I may or may not be a stupid idiot for acting like that. And at some juncture it may well occur to me I am a stupid idiot, and I will get the vaccine.

    But the rest of you should be effing furious. You locked down. You got the vaccine when asked. You played ball. YO You are still in prison.

    And relying on the people who put you in prison, to get you out of prison. After they reneged on a bucket of other promises.
    I still don't understand why you didn't get the vaccine when offered it? It makes no sense whatsoever.
    He's like one of those homophobic televangelists that condemns homosexaulity but likes getting felated by guys in airport toilets.

    Secretly he loves what he hates.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK R

    By cases data

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    By hospitalisations

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,599
    I don't think the US are going to be able to stop this pipeline.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Age related data

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020
    All of this could be solved with one phone call between Biden, Kamala, Boris and Angela. It must be sorted, and it will be. I think intellectual paralysis has afflicted our continental friends, but it will pass.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695
    Brom said:

    There has been a Hartlepool poll and its terrible reading for Labour.

    Luckily for them its only on the Hartlepool United football forum.

    Is there a better sounding board?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Age related data - scaled to 100k population per age group

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020
    Andy_JS said:

    Well surely this is better than the reverse: borders open and the UK in lockdown, which was the bizarre policy last March.
    Fair point.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,599

    Good afternoon everyone.

    Did I read that Labour abstained on the Sturgeon vote? SLAB obviously taking its lead from Starmer.

    Don't think so, Starmer was shooting his mouth off about how Sturgeon should resign even if she had unknowingly broken the ministerial code just a few days ago.
    Sarwar has wisely decided that with the SCons being the petty, vindictive small people consumed with hatred of the EssEnnPee in the room, he might as well gain some credibility by showing a hint of pragmatic principle (or more cynically that he realised that the whole 'get Nippy' thing had turned into a clown car crash). I'm sticking with my prediction of SLab ousting the SCons as second party in May.
    Presumably you felt it was 'petty, vindictive and small' when the SNP called for (and got) the resignations of two other FMs for comparatively microscopic transgressions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376

    Brom said:

    There has been a Hartlepool poll and its terrible reading for Labour.

    Luckily for them its only on the Hartlepool United football forum.

    Is there a better sounding board?
    Well, they’re known for being on the ball.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK vaccinations

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    England CFR

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 39,928

    Good afternoon everyone.

    Did I read that Labour abstained on the Sturgeon vote? SLAB obviously taking its lead from Starmer.

    Don't think so, Starmer was shooting his mouth off about how Sturgeon should resign even if she had unknowingly broken the ministerial code just a few days ago.
    Sarwar has wisely decided that with the SCons being the petty, vindictive small people consumed with hatred of the EssEnnPee in the room, he might as well gain some credibility by showing a hint of pragmatic principle (or more cynically that he realised that the whole 'get Nippy' thing had turned into a clown car crash). I'm sticking with my prediction of SLab ousting the SCons as second party in May.
    Presumably you felt it was 'petty, vindictive and small' when the SNP called for (and got) the resignations of two other FMs for comparatively microscopic transgressions.
    I listened to the debate and it was one that should shame everyone, with bitterness, hate, intolerance and accusations coming from all sides, highly partisan and did not show Scotland in a good light

    I expect the leaders debates will not improve on what is a bitterly divided Country
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,012
    ydoethur said:

    Brom said:

    There has been a Hartlepool poll and its terrible reading for Labour.

    Luckily for them its only on the Hartlepool United football forum.

    Is there a better sounding board?
    Well, they’re known for being on the ball.
    It's Hartlepool United.
    That probably isn't what they are known for.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    Brom said:

    There has been a Hartlepool poll and its terrible reading for Labour.

    Luckily for them its only on the Hartlepool United football forum.

    Is there a better sounding board?
    Well, they’re known for being on the ball.
    It's Hartlepool United.
    That probably isn't what they are known for.
    If they prefer a balls up, no wonder they plan to vote for the Tories.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    Quelle surprise.

    I'm sure theyre super keen on that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,316

    All of this could be solved with one phone call between Biden, Kamala, Boris and Angela. It must be sorted, and it will be. I think intellectual paralysis has afflicted our continental friends, but it will pass.

    Let's hope so, because China and Russia must be laughing at the West's dysfunctionality atm.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,381
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    So Halix.

    AIUI is not a large facility at all. This is it: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9391335/Factory-heart-EU-row-supplied-us.html
    It produced stuff which was needed when AZ was being tested. It is not approved for the manufacture of vaccine by either the EU or indeed the UK. We have apparently received some vaccine from there but its use is not yet approved in the UK either.

    Which seems on the face of it to make this all rather ridiculous. The EU cannot "steal" our vaccine because it is not authorised for use. Given the lack of authorisation it is not obvious how we can use it to meet our forthcoming shortfall either. Its also a vaccine on which the EU are not very keen and of which they seem to have fairly significant stocks. All very odd.

    What the EU are doing is destroying their reputation as a rules based organisation for no obvious benefit whatsoever. It is truly bizarre. Are there no adults left in the room at all?

    There are destroying their reputation as a rules based organisation as the other option is to admit that the EU has screwed up the purchasing of vaccines so as the UK starts to return to normal vast parts of the EU are going to implementing their third (or even fourth) lockdown.
    But that is really my point. I don't see how vaccine from an unauthorised source not being available is going to either slow us down or speed them up. Its just pointless.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,562
    FF43 said:

    Flabbergasting. The DSMB committee that have oversight of the Astrazeneca trial in the US apparently told AZ to state a 69%-74% efficacy figure for the vaccine based on the most up-to-date trial data. AZ went ahead with a 79% efficacy rate in their press release based on old data, without any indication that this wasn't official data.


    https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1374389013356769287

    Do explain to us the difference between "the interim data" and the "trial data" ?

    What we can immediately see from the 69-74 % efficacy figure is that the statistical error in any point estimate is substantial. If these are 1 sigma error bounds, then what is the probability that a test on one set of data gives 79 % and on another set of data gives 74 % ?

    From the site that you are quoting :"Releasing the 79% figure — while knowing it was out-of-date — was like telling your mother you got an A in a course when really you got an A on one test, but a C overall. OUCH!"

    That statement is clearly a much bigger misrepresentation than anything AZ have done or have not done.

    The site is shit-stirring, and so are you.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,860
    I wonder if Biden will raise Nord Stream 2.

    https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1374409791955636224?s=21
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,850
    edited March 23
    End the War on Cash !!!

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  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,439
    Andy_JS said:

    It's been amazing for me to learn that there are apparently a non-trivial number of people who would actually prefer a policy of UK locked down + open borders. These must be people who live in a luxury apartment in Canary Wharf and whose normal travel plans involve going to one of the London airports and flying to another country. They don't usually visit anywhere else in the UK, so this policy would be the one that suits them, and annoys them to have it replaced by no UK lockdown + closed borders, which would be preferred by the overwhelming majority of people.

    False dichotomy. Locking down is a choice. Abandoning our very system of living and junking the civil liberties that go with it can only be justified in exceptional circumstances and for a short period of time, i.e. when there is a clear and present danger resulting in health services being under imminent risk of being overwhelmed. If a new virus emerges (which always could have happened and always will be a risk) then we deal with it in this limited manner as-and-when. Not by imagining what might happen. We have to start getting out of this risk-averse unprincipled mindset and giving proper weight to liberty and economic matters.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,669
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    So Halix.

    AIUI is not a large facility at all. This is it: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9391335/Factory-heart-EU-row-supplied-us.html
    It produced stuff which was needed when AZ was being tested. It is not approved for the manufacture of vaccine by either the EU or indeed the UK. We have apparently received some vaccine from there but its use is not yet approved in the UK either.

    Which seems on the face of it to make this all rather ridiculous. The EU cannot "steal" our vaccine because it is not authorised for use. Given the lack of authorisation it is not obvious how we can use it to meet our forthcoming shortfall either. Its also a vaccine on which the EU are not very keen and of which they seem to have fairly significant stocks. All very odd.

    What the EU are doing is destroying their reputation as a rules based organisation for no obvious benefit whatsoever. It is truly bizarre. Are there no adults left in the room at all?

    There are destroying their reputation as a rules based organisation as the other option is to admit that the EU has screwed up the purchasing of vaccines so as the UK starts to return to normal vast parts of the EU are going to implementing their third (or even fourth) lockdown.
    But that is really my point. I don't see how vaccine from an unauthorised source not being available is going to either slow us down or speed them up. Its just pointless.
    It's not pointless if the other option is copping the blame for screwing up the purchase of vaccines to the extent that the large parts of the EU are under lockdown for another 3 months.

    Given the option of saying - oops we screwed up or blaming AZ and the UK for not providing vaccines that were "promised" what else would you expect a politician to do beyond.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    edited March 23

    All of this could be solved with one phone call between Biden, Kamala, Boris and Angela. It must be sorted, and it will be. I think intellectual paralysis has afflicted our continental friends, but it will pass.

    I think the idea it could be solved with a phone call is flawed, because it isn't a personality issue that is causing this, nor is it one solved with a quick decision those personalities could resolve. The pressure on the EU side is broader than that, pushing on all the leaders, so Merkel cannot simply fix it. Indeed, she seems to have been a big part of letting things get to this point, by action or inaction.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,291
    edited March 23
    Endillion said:

    All very sensible stuff. It just strikes me how much easier it is to recall unsuccessful protests than successful ones. Are there some good recent examples of how following these principles can "change a government’s intended actions or leads it to do something it might not otherwise have done"?

    I can think of, off the top of my head, Joanna Lumley and justice for Ghurkas, and (arguably) the fuel tax protests. Maybe a select few of the strike actions, like the firefighters' one.

    Foxhunting, the Iraq War, anti-Brexit - I would say all of those had huge support and followed all those rules, more-or-less. All failed totally.

    Your reference to Joanna Lumley and the Ghurkas suggests another item for Cyclefree's list - a cause which is not selfish, but is for either the greater good, or for the good of someone other than the protester - a group that is unable to represent itself fairly. Protests on behalf of children, or the mentally handicapped, etc... would fall into this category too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861
    edited March 23
    On topic. I'd say that to maximize its chances of achieving change a protest movement here in Britain needs to cause serious disruption to the status quo over a prolonged period, yet at the same time not forfeit popular sympathy and bolster support for the authorities by tipping into gratuitous violence. XR were doing ok, imo, pre pandemic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    MattW said:

    End the War on Cash !!!

    image

    The government probably could compensate all those injured or killed by the 'vaccine', given how few people have adverse reactions.
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