E.g., if the Hartlepool by-election takes place against a febrile background of "the EU nabbed our jabs", then Labour's remainer candidate is going to lose.
Of course, he could he argue that had we remained the EU would be in no position to issue trade blocks on us.
Well they wouldn't need to as we had enough euphiles in parliament till the 2019 election to make sure we were in the eu vaccination program and the 2019 election wouldn't have been needed. We would be in a similarly bad boat but better to fail together in solidarity
Well if that's what the Telegraph is reporting, then it is promising for those of us who think the UK should play the long game and not escalate this precipitously.
The FT article makes it sound like the UK's nervousnous relates to Pfizer and other non-Az vaccines which is good if the EU are obsessed with the AZ issue.
It would be very hard for the EU to go after the Pfizer jabs, as that is an American company. Uncle Joe would not be happy.
If the AZ move is pure gesture (should it happen) it looks like the EU might secure the worst case scenario (again) - maximum reputational damage to the EU, for no obvious gain whatsoever.
And you were sending in the Aircraft Carriers this morning in your General Galtieri moment
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
So they're threatening to block the export of a vaccine that wasn't going to be exported anyway?
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There is a stockpile of precursor sitting at Halix. AZ wants to send to the UK. The EU is saying no
We have you saying one thing and MaxPB saying another perhaps put your heads together and work out what the situation is?
Not sure they are actually saying different things. Max is saying that Halix has not sent anything to the UK since January and that the UK supply is not dependent on Halix. I do not think I have seen him say that there are no stockpiles at Halix, nor have I seen him address the question of whether the UK has asked for access to that stockpile or not.
From what I read the Halix site was the original one set up with the Oxford team when they were expecting to give the contract to Merck, and AZ inherited that when the contract was changed.
Is that in any way accurate? Would explain a lot of things - such as why the entire AZ supply isn't UK based.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There's lots of things that just don't add up about this story, if what you say is true. The EU will look utterly ridiculous if they make a big thing of banning AZ exports to the UK, and AZ respond by saying that it will have zero impact on their supply to the UK. They will have made a massive song and dance, risked legal action from AZ (and potentially their own supply) and not even gained a few additional vaccines out of it.
I don't buy the "political theatre" argument - if it just makes the EU look stupid.
The only outside possibility is that the EU are completely mistaken about production at the Helix plant and genuinely, but mistakenly, think there is a big vaccine gain from them by appropriating whatever there is there.
You obviously missed the whole we are publishing this contract and it will show AZN are breaking it...only to show the EU didn't know what they agreed.....or the trashing of the AZN vaccine, then find people don't want it and they are now having a 3rd wave...
One thing that has not been mentioned on here but probably is playing a major part in all this is the personality / reputation of Ursula von der Leyen. She is notorious for very happily chucking people under the bus whenever there is a difficult situation. So it shouldn't come as a surprise that she is stirring up this row but it also suggests she won't back down until she has some sort of (symbolic) victory. The slight problem she faces, though, is that, unlike Germany, she doesn't have too many friends in the European capitals.
One other thing as well re the faltering vaccine rollout. As we have seen today from the comments of Ben Wallace, it is looking increasingly unlikely that British tourists will be allowed to go to Europe this summer. That is going to be a body blow for the likes of Spain, Portugal and Italy, as well as Greece (depending what happens).
And when those southern economies buckle even further this summer the euro/ECB/debt infrastructure will come under intense pressure.
Very speculative, but I think part of what might be driving EU thought on this is the UK's inability to respond proportionately (in terms of global opinion). If the EU follows through on the proposed export ban, it might kill thousands of British citizens indirectly, but it's much harder for the UK to justify a severe response to discourage further action when those deaths aren't direct (in contrast, you might consider the attack on the Twin Towers and the immediate thousands of deaths, which enabled the US to justify grossly excessive action).
If the EU does ban vaccine exports, what do we do?
If we ban the export of vaccine ingredients such as lipid - we're sinking to the level of the EU, makes us look just as bad.
If we try to pull troops out of Eastern Europe in spite of our NATO commitments - we'll be smeared as overreacting.
If we downplay the entire affair and say we'll keep exporting lipids and keep spending lives and money to defend Europe - the EU will conclude that threats are effective against the UK and they can just keep doing this every time there's a crisis.
Long term, we definitely need to start developing proper leverage against the EU, because clearly we can't trust them to not threaten us in situations like this.
I don't think we should block any exports, but one thing I would do is have the PM write a letter to the European Commission that Britain will never forget what they have done. We can then respond at the time and place of our choosing.
That seems like the most rational response, but sadly I'm not sure it's one the PM will choose.
I'm sorry, but as British pensioners start dropping dead at bus-stops because the smelly Krauts and Frogs have stolen our jabs, I don't think the UK public will be content with the Prime Minister just "writing a stiff letter"
We are a warrior nation. Insular, pragmatic, sometimes silly - but also quite punchy. Slow to anger, but a bad enemy when riled. This will rile EVERYONE
You do know we're vaccinating 50+ year olds these days? If these people are pensioners then the claims about pension insecurity are seriously overblown!
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There's lots of things that just don't add up about this story, if what you say is true. The EU will look utterly ridiculous if they make a big thing of banning AZ exports to the UK, and AZ respond by saying that it will have zero impact on their supply to the UK. They will have made a massive song and dance, risked legal action from AZ (and potentially their own supply) and not even gained a few additional vaccines out of it.
I don't buy the "political theatre" argument - if it just makes the EU look stupid.
The only outside possibility is that the EU are completely mistaken about production at the Helix plant and genuinely, but mistakenly, think there is a big vaccine gain from them by appropriating whatever there is there.
I just don't think they're thinking about anything past tomorrow's headlines. This works for tomorrow's headlines, what it does past that is for the next crisis. It's the new method of kicking the can down the road. The worry is that this may end in the EU asking Belgium to block Pfizer exports and that would be explosive for us and the EU as well as for the US as it's a US company having their business shat on.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
Several people asked about a 7 day average of the CFR numbers... so....
I would feel happier with a methodology review of what I have done - very much a home baked thing... Anyone interested?
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I put both British and English too.
Nope I put just English. The question does not ask about legality it asks about your own perception.
Are you resigned to Scotland becoming independent?
Resigned? I campaigned for it last time as I was working in Aberdeen at the time. I find it utterly baffling that anyone could support Brexit and not support giving the Scots the same opportunity. I would like to see England not only allowing the vote but doing everything possible to make it a success so we have two friendly, successful nations.
I find your bafflement uncharacteristically illogical. One can support the French revolution but not the Russian revolution. One can like oranges but still not be fond of bananas. So one can support Indy but not Brexit and vice versa. Leaving the EU is totally different to splitting the UK, both in the particulars and the severity of the fallout.
Very speculative, but I think part of what might be driving EU thought on this is the UK's inability to respond proportionately (in terms of global opinion). If the EU follows through on the proposed export ban, it might kill thousands of British citizens indirectly, but it's much harder for the UK to justify a severe response to discourage further action when those deaths aren't direct (in contrast, you might consider the attack on the Twin Towers and the immediate thousands of deaths, which enabled the US to justify grossly excessive action).
If the EU does ban vaccine exports, what do we do?
If we ban the export of vaccine ingredients such as lipid - we're sinking to the level of the EU, makes us look just as bad.
If we try to pull troops out of Eastern Europe in spite of our NATO commitments - we'll be smeared as overreacting.
If we downplay the entire affair and say we'll keep exporting lipids and keep spending lives and money to defend Europe - the EU will conclude that threats are effective against the UK and they can just keep doing this every time there's a crisis.
Long term, we definitely need to start developing proper leverage against the EU, because clearly we can't trust them to not threaten us in situations like this.
I don't think we should block any exports, but one thing I would do is have the PM write a letter to the European Commission that Britain will never forget what they have done. We can then respond at the time and place of our choosing.
Team America scene: Kim Jong Il: Hans Brix? Oh no! Oh, herro. Great to see you again, Hans!
Hans Blix: Mr. Il, I was supposed to be allowed to inspect your palace today, but your guards won't let me enter certain areas.
Kim Jong Il: Hans, Hans, Hans! We've been frew this a dozen times. I don't have any weapons of mass destwuction, OK Hans?
Hans Blix: Then let me look around, so I can ease the UN's collective mind.
Kim Jong Il: Hans, you're breakin' my barrs here, Hans, you're breakin' my barrs!
Hans Blix: I'm sorry, but the UN must be firm with you. Let me in, or else.
Kim Jong Il: Or else what?
Hans Blix: Or else we will be very angry with you... and we will write you a letter, telling you how angry we are.
Kim Jong Il: OK, Hans. I'll show you. Stand to your reft.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There's lots of things that just don't add up about this story, if what you say is true. The EU will look utterly ridiculous if they make a big thing of banning AZ exports to the UK, and AZ respond by saying that it will have zero impact on their supply to the UK. They will have made a massive song and dance, risked legal action from AZ (and potentially their own supply) and not even gained a few additional vaccines out of it.
I don't buy the "political theatre" argument - if it just makes the EU look stupid.
The only outside possibility is that the EU are completely mistaken about production at the Helix plant and genuinely, but mistakenly, think there is a big vaccine gain from them by appropriating whatever there is there.
You obviously missed the whole we are publishing this contract and it will show AZN are breaking it...only to show the EU didn't know what they agreed.....or the trashing of the AZN vaccine, then find people don't want it and they are now having a 3rd wave...
One thing that has not been mentioned on here but probably is playing a major part in all this is the personality / reputation of Ursula von der Leyen. She is notorious for very happily chucking people under the bus whenever there is a difficult situation. So it shouldn't come as a surprise that she is stirring up this row but it also suggests she won't back down until she has some sort of (symbolic) victory. The slight problem she faces, though, is that, unlike Germany, she doesn't have too many friends in the European capitals.
One other thing as well re the faltering vaccine rollout. As we have seen today from the comments of Ben Wallace, it is looking increasingly unlikely that British tourists will be allowed to go to Europe this summer. That is going to be a body blow for the likes of Spain, Portugal and Italy, as well as Greece (depending what happens).
And when those southern economies buckle even further this summer the euro/ECB/debt infrastructure will come under intense pressure.
Hold onto your seatbelts.
It is not going to be pretty at all. They were counting on a reopening. And the ECB has not got much left.
A German President of the Commission backed by Angela Merkel...I can see Italy and Greece dusting off the old claims for WW2 reparations to wipe off their debts to German banks....
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There's lots of things that just don't add up about this story, if what you say is true. The EU will look utterly ridiculous if they make a big thing of banning AZ exports to the UK, and AZ respond by saying that it will have zero impact on their supply to the UK. They will have made a massive song and dance, risked legal action from AZ (and potentially their own supply) and not even gained a few additional vaccines out of it.
I don't buy the "political theatre" argument - if it just makes the EU look stupid.
The only outside possibility is that the EU are completely mistaken about production at the Helix plant and genuinely, but mistakenly, think there is a big vaccine gain from them by appropriating whatever there is there.
I just don't think they're thinking about anything past tomorrow's headlines. This works for tomorrow's headlines, what it does past that is for the next crisis. It's the new method of kicking the can down the road. The worry is that this may end in the EU asking Belgium to block Pfizer exports and that would be explosive for us and the EU as well as for the US as it's a US company having their business shat on.
The warning sign for that will probably when the eu tries to make blocking vaccines a qmv issue for the block
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There is a stockpile of precursor sitting at Halix. AZ wants to send to the UK. The EU is saying no
We have you saying one thing and MaxPB saying another perhaps put your heads together and work out what the situation is?
Not sure they are actually saying different things. Max is saying that Halix has not sent anything to the UK since January and that the UK supply is not dependent on Halix. I do not think I have seen him say that there are no stockpiles at Halix, nor have I seen him address the question of whether the UK has asked for access to that stockpile or not.
From what I read the Halix site was the original one set up with the Oxford team when they were expecting to give the contract to Merck, and AZ inherited that when the contract was changed.
Is that in any way accurate? Would explain a lot of things - such as why the entire AZ supply isn't UK based.
I've not really been following the company specifics of production, rather the science and medicine of the virus and our responses to it.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
Fear not, no one in the SNP gives a flying one about the collective decision of the JS household. You might just as well have been honest.
He didn't say he wasn't honest. Whether you like it or not, many of us were brought up British, with English a long way into the background. You don't seem to be able to assimilate this fact - this must all be a veneer to disguise our red-fanged English nationalism. It's really quite odd.
Ah, I get it, he was just stating that other people should be dishonest and not choose just English, otherwise they’d be encouraging the SNP and Plaid. Very good, carry on.
This reported export ban, and given how long they been floating it just shows how fucking slow the EU are, has no sensible point or purpose. They have shat on the AZN vaccine yet demand it.
Therefore we are left with dogma and/or embarassment as motivations. The UK should stand firm and if the EU do something materially impactful, should retaliate with some heft and retaliate quickly.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
You seem very sure of this - there seems to be conflicting reports about the ingredients for AZ vaccines. I understand the vaccines themselves aren't being imported, but what about the ingredients?
Put it another way - if it really does have no impact then the EU will look even more ridiculous.
Imagine they announce a ban on AZ exports to the EU, but AZ makes a public statement saying it will have zero impact on their UK distribution. But in the meantime they will take the EU to court and consider whether they want to continue with their current contract given the EU breach.
I am amazed at the restraint shown by AZN to this point. Surely at some point they must launch legal action against the EU.
Rule 1 in the Pharma industry is never sue your regulator / payor
I thought rule 1 was make sure your meds don't kill anyone or cause major health issues.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There is a stockpile of precursor sitting at Halix. AZ wants to send to the UK. The EU is saying no
We have you saying one thing and MaxPB saying another perhaps put your heads together and work out what the situation is?
Not sure they are actually saying different things. Max is saying that Halix has not sent anything to the UK since January and that the UK supply is not dependent on Halix. I do not think I have seen him say that there are no stockpiles at Halix, nor have I seen him address the question of whether the UK has asked for access to that stockpile or not.
I couldn't say on the latter as that's something no one outside of the government or AZ will know right now. It's plausible that the UK government has asked for AZ to use their global supply chain to fulfil the Indian shortfall of 5m and the Halix site has enough doses to cover it so are prepared to use the Halix substance exports to be filled and finished in Wales.
Ultimately, I don't think there is any mileage in the government raising the stakes by putting up the same export blocks which destroys the Pfizer manufacturing supply chain for the whole world. Unless the EU succeeds in blocking Pfizer exports to the UK then this retaliation should be avoided. I do, however, think it's time for contingency planning to be done and for us to speak to Biden's people about a rapid scale up of US manufacturing of Pfizer vaccine doses to supply the UK and all the others who will be affected by our ceasing supply to Puurs.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I put both British and English too.
Nope I put just English. The question does not ask about legality it asks about your own perception.
Are you resigned to Scotland becoming independent?
Resigned? I campaigned for it last time as I was working in Aberdeen at the time. I find it utterly baffling that anyone could support Brexit and not support giving the Scots the same opportunity. I would like to see England not only allowing the vote but doing everything possible to make it a success so we have two friendly, successful nations.
I agree anyone who supported Brexit logically should support the Scots having the same opportunity, but do not agree that this automatically translates into supporting Scottish independence. I, for one, believe the Scots should be the ones to set the timescale for their referenda on independence, but would hope that they would chose to remain in the UK.
Scotland was given an opportunity to vote on whether to remain in the UK in 2014. Happily, Scotland voted to remain in the UK. In 2016, the UK then happily voted to leave the European Union.
I'm in favour of both referendums, both delivered the result I wanted/expected, and now that both the UK and Scotland have spoken, I think it's undemocratic to force a second vote within a generation of the first.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I put both British and English too.
Nope I put just English. The question does not ask about legality it asks about your own perception.
Are you resigned to Scotland becoming independent?
Richard has been a vocal supporter of Scottish independence for as long as I have been on PB.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I put both British and English too.
Nope I put just English. The question does not ask about legality it asks about your own perception.
Are you resigned to Scotland becoming independent?
Resigned? I campaigned for it last time as I was working in Aberdeen at the time. I find it utterly baffling that anyone could support Brexit and not support giving the Scots the same opportunity. I would like to see England not only allowing the vote but doing everything possible to make it a success so we have two friendly, successful nations.
I find your bafflement uncharacteristically illogical. One can support the French revolution but not the Russian revolution. One can like oranges but still not be fond of bananas. So one can support Indy but not Brexit and vice versa. Leaving the EU is totally different to splitting the UK, both in the particulars and the severity of the fallout.
I disagree. The underlying principles are identical - the right to self determination as an independent nation. That was my underlying reason for campaigning for Brexit and it should apply to other countries if they so desire.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
So they're threatening to block the export of a vaccine that wasn't going to be exported anyway?
At the moment that's my reading of it, this is intended for the domestic European audience to look like doing something without actually doing anything.
Very speculative, but I think part of what might be driving EU thought on this is the UK's inability to respond proportionately (in terms of global opinion). If the EU follows through on the proposed export ban, it might kill thousands of British citizens indirectly, but it's much harder for the UK to justify a severe response to discourage further action when those deaths aren't direct (in contrast, you might consider the attack on the Twin Towers and the immediate thousands of deaths, which enabled the US to justify grossly excessive action).
If the EU does ban vaccine exports, what do we do?
If we ban the export of vaccine ingredients such as lipid - we're sinking to the level of the EU, makes us look just as bad.
If we try to pull troops out of Eastern Europe in spite of our NATO commitments - we'll be smeared as overreacting.
If we downplay the entire affair and say we'll keep exporting lipids and keep spending lives and money to defend Europe - the EU will conclude that threats are effective against the UK and they can just keep doing this every time there's a crisis.
Long term, we definitely need to start developing proper leverage against the EU, because clearly we can't trust them to not threaten us in situations like this.
I don't think we should block any exports, but one thing I would do is have the PM write a letter to the European Commission that Britain will never forget what they have done. We can then respond at the time and place of our choosing.
Team America scene: Kim Jong Il: Hans Brix? Oh no! Oh, herro. Great to see you again, Hans!
Hans Blix: Mr. Il, I was supposed to be allowed to inspect your palace today, but your guards won't let me enter certain areas.
Kim Jong Il: Hans, Hans, Hans! We've been frew this a dozen times. I don't have any weapons of mass destwuction, OK Hans?
Hans Blix: Then let me look around, so I can ease the UN's collective mind.
Kim Jong Il: Hans, you're breakin' my barrs here, Hans, you're breakin' my barrs!
Hans Blix: I'm sorry, but the UN must be firm with you. Let me in, or else.
Kim Jong Il: Or else what?
Hans Blix: Or else we will be very angry with you... and we will write you a letter, telling you how angry we are.
Kim Jong Il: OK, Hans. I'll show you. Stand to your reft.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
Fear not, no one in the SNP gives a flying one about the collective decision of the JS household. You might just as well have been honest.
He didn't say he wasn't honest. Whether you like it or not, many of us were brought up British, with English a long way into the background. You don't seem to be able to assimilate this fact - this must all be a veneer to disguise our red-fanged English nationalism. It's really quite odd.
Ah, I get it, he was just stating that other people should be dishonest and not choose just English, otherwise they’d be encouraging the SNP and Plaid. Very good, carry on.
I think he was recommending that people be thoughtful, and consider about which layers of nationality they truly value, not use the survey to offer an annoyed riposte to the perceived rise in anti-English feeling elsewhere. He didn't recommend anyone being dishonest.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
Several people asked about a 7 day average of the CFR numbers... so....
I would feel happier with a methodology review of what I have done - very much a home baked thing... Anyone interested?
Sure. Would be interested to see how you deal with current infections not yet resolved.
Parler basically - if the people making it are savvy enough to keep it from being banned, Trump is certainly not a bad figurehead to get it off the ground.
"We left the UK for Portland expecting a liberal dream. That wasn’t the reality Five years ago, Candice Pires and her family moved to the ‘liberal, laid-back’ US city of Portland. Would the shockwaves of 2020 spell the end of their lives there?"
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There's lots of things that just don't add up about this story, if what you say is true. The EU will look utterly ridiculous if they make a big thing of banning AZ exports to the UK, and AZ respond by saying that it will have zero impact on their supply to the UK. They will have made a massive song and dance, risked legal action from AZ (and potentially their own supply) and not even gained a few additional vaccines out of it.
I don't buy the "political theatre" argument - if it just makes the EU look stupid.
The only outside possibility is that the EU are completely mistaken about production at the Helix plant and genuinely, but mistakenly, think there is a big vaccine gain from them by appropriating whatever there is there.
I just don't think they're thinking about anything past tomorrow's headlines. This works for tomorrow's headlines, what it does past that is for the next crisis. It's the new method of kicking the can down the road. The worry is that this may end in the EU asking Belgium to block Pfizer exports and that would be explosive for us and the EU as well as for the US as it's a US company having their business shat on.
The warning sign for that will probably when the eu tries to make blocking vaccines a qmv issue for the block
That's true but would be tough to do under existing treaty rules as using the existing expropriation measures needs unanimity and there's probably at least 10 countries including major power brokers like like the Netherlands and Belgium who would block such a move and others like Poland who look to their own border and worry that pissing the UK off will weaken the western alliance.
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
Fear not, no one in the SNP gives a flying one about the collective decision of the JS household. You might just as well have been honest.
He didn't say he wasn't honest. Whether you like it or not, many of us were brought up British, with English a long way into the background. You don't seem to be able to assimilate this fact - this must all be a veneer to disguise our red-fanged English nationalism. It's really quite odd.
Ah, I get it, he was just stating that other people should be dishonest and not choose just English, otherwise they’d be encouraging the SNP and Plaid. Very good, carry on.
I think he was recommending that people be thoughtful, and consider about which layers of nationality they truly value, not use the survey to offer an annoyed riposte to the perceived rise in anti-English feeling elsewhere. He didn't recommend anyone being dishonest.
Since you’re in a Luckyguysplaining mood, do you agree that identifying as solely English is ‘silliness’?
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Maybe. Or it just makes the Guardian look stupid for splashing on the "wrong" story.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I put both British and English too.
Nope I put just English. The question does not ask about legality it asks about your own perception.
Are you resigned to Scotland becoming independent?
Resigned? I campaigned for it last time as I was working in Aberdeen at the time. I find it utterly baffling that anyone could support Brexit and not support giving the Scots the same opportunity. I would like to see England not only allowing the vote but doing everything possible to make it a success so we have two friendly, successful nations.
I find your bafflement uncharacteristically illogical. One can support the French revolution but not the Russian revolution. One can like oranges but still not be fond of bananas. So one can support Indy but not Brexit and vice versa. Leaving the EU is totally different to splitting the UK, both in the particulars and the severity of the fallout.
I disagree. The underlying principles are identical - the right to self determination as an independent nation. That was my underlying reason for campaigning for Brexit and it should apply to other countries if they so desire.
Well, disagreeing is your right, but I'm afraid you're confusing the right to choose (which Scotland has had, and undoubtedly will have again in the short to medium term) with the rightness of your preferred outcome.
It is quite acceptable to believe that Scotland should remain in the UK, but that the UK should leave the EU, or (as many SNP supporters believe) the opposite, that Scotland should leave the UK, but shouldn't have left the EU. Or that both should leave both, or that nobody should leave anything. There are valid (and non-valid) reasons for all these positions.
Bristol police are some of the wokiest in the country.
The city threatens to become the British Portland.
If that dipshit policeman who complained about 'some right wing people' asking him to do his job when the Colston statue was vandalised, he needs to be out of one sharpish.
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Maybe. Or it just makes the Guardian look stupid for splashing on the "wrong" story.
Probably find their later editions change.
Do we know for sure the proposal is AZN only? I thought they were proposing a ban on any exports to countries that were producers of vaccine, hadn't exported, and were too far ahead of the EU in terms of vaccination (only one country meets all these criteria).
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
You seem very sure of this - there seems to be conflicting reports about the ingredients for AZ vaccines. I understand the vaccines themselves aren't being imported, but what about the ingredients?
Put it another way - if it really does have no impact then the EU will look even more ridiculous.
Imagine they announce a ban on AZ exports to the EU, but AZ makes a public statement saying it will have zero impact on their UK distribution. But in the meantime they will take the EU to court and consider whether they want to continue with their current contract given the EU breach.
I am amazed at the restraint shown by AZN to this point. Surely at some point they must launch legal action against the EU.
Rule 1 in the Pharma industry is never sue your regulator / payor
I thought rule 1 was make sure your meds don't kill anyone or cause major health issues.
"We left the UK for Portland expecting a liberal dream. That wasn’t the reality Five years ago, Candice Pires and her family moved to the ‘liberal, laid-back’ US city of Portland. Would the shockwaves of 2020 spell the end of their lives there?"
The second article is funny...its a great place, the riots, they only a couple of blocks, never targetting Portlanders... nothing to see....but we are moving.
Its also bollocks, loads of local businesses have been smashed up and the riots have spread to residental neighborhoods.
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Maybe. Or it just makes the Guardian look stupid for splashing on the "wrong" story.
Probably find their later editions change.
This is definitely not the "wrong" story. This will be headline news tomorrow on TV. Guardian and FT just got there first; fair play to them for good journalism
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
Several people asked about a 7 day average of the CFR numbers... so....
I would feel happier with a methodology review of what I have done - very much a home baked thing... Anyone interested?
Sure. Would be interested to see how you deal with current infections not yet resolved.
--AS
OK
Well, what I am doing is
1) using a LogNormal distribution to create an expected profile for case -> death. see https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-declining-case-fatality-ratio-in-england/ and https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.02090 2) For each days cases, going forward a day at a time, multiply the density for that day (from (1) ) by the number of cases for the original day. So if we have 23 cases on day 0, we have a value of 23 * density(x) on day x 3) So from each day, we have a curve moving forward representing the probability of deaths from initial days cases. 3) This is the bit where it gets crude = add all these overlapping curves together. So for each day, we have the *sum* of all the intersections of the curves for that day. So if we had 23 cases on day 0, and 12 on day 1, we would have on day 10, 23*density(10), + 12*density(9) etc etc 4) I work out CFR = Actual Deaths that day / Sum from (3)
The weakness, I think is mixing together differing CFR values.
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Maybe. Or it just makes the Guardian look stupid for splashing on the "wrong" story.
Probably find their later editions change.
Do we know for sure the proposal is AZN only? I thought they were proposing a ban on any exports to countries that were producers of vaccine, hadn't exported, and were too far ahead of the EU in terms of vaccination (only one country meets all these criteria).
When they first mooted "permissions to export" many people including leavers said its just for domestic consumption they won't actually block exports. The worry here is that the eu now have form for overstepping the bounds of sanity
Yeah, "everyone calm down" as the EU seriously considers, on Thursday, whether it will take illegal measures that will kill thousands of Brits and gravely damage our economy
Also, please calm down about that Hitler guy, it's just Poland.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
You seem very sure of this - there seems to be conflicting reports about the ingredients for AZ vaccines. I understand the vaccines themselves aren't being imported, but what about the ingredients?
Put it another way - if it really does have no impact then the EU will look even more ridiculous.
Imagine they announce a ban on AZ exports to the EU, but AZ makes a public statement saying it will have zero impact on their UK distribution. But in the meantime they will take the EU to court and consider whether they want to continue with their current contract given the EU breach.
I am amazed at the restraint shown by AZN to this point. Surely at some point they must launch legal action against the EU.
Rule 1 in the Pharma industry is never sue your regulator / payor
I thought rule 1 was make sure your meds don't kill anyone or cause major health issues.
Oh! You’re so sweet sometimes
Well, arguably not causing a health crisis should be rule 1, out of self interest - the Sacklers say high!
Bristol is classic Guardianista....the rich live there very separate lives in the enclave of Clifton, with London house prices and restaurant prices to match, and it is very white and they never having anything to do with neighborhoods like St Pauls...but they will bore your ear off about inequality and injustice of the world, while sending their kids to the expensive private schools (there are I think 3 or 4 all within about a mile) and the only time they go near a working class area is on a trip to Ikea.
And the middle class are now busy involved in gentrification of a couple of other areas. Again, while very quick to bore you about how terrible globalisation is.
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Maybe. Or it just makes the Guardian look stupid for splashing on the "wrong" story.
Probably find their later editions change.
Do we know for sure the proposal is AZN only? I thought they were proposing a ban on any exports to countries that were producers of vaccine, hadn't exported, and were too far ahead of the EU in terms of vaccination (only one country meets all these criteria).
The Guardian story looks like extremely bad news. The last thing we want is a vaccine trade war. We are within an ace of double dosing the cohorts that comprise 99% of all deaths.
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Maybe. Or it just makes the Guardian look stupid for splashing on the "wrong" story.
Probably find their later editions change.
This is definitely not the "wrong" story. This will be headline news tomorrow on TV. Guardian and FT just got there first; fair play to them for good journalism
The story in the Guardian is about banning Pfizer exports, and a crippling blow to the UK vaccine rollout. The actual story and proposal is about blocking AZ exports (and there are strong doubts expressed whether this will have any impact on the rollout (i'm attracted by the theory that this is UK attempting to replace thh 5m doses from the Indian setback) and about whether the latter amounts to anything other than tokenism).
Unless something changes, it's clearly the 'wrong' story, both in facts about what the EU is proposing and consequences for the UK.
Yeah, "everyone calm down" as the EU seriously considers, on Thursday, whether it will take illegal measures that will kill thousands of Brits and gravely damage our economy
Also, please calm down about that Hitler guy, it's just Poland.
Classic EU, they can't even make that decision quickly....if it really was so pressing, you would think they would meet immediately and decision.
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Maybe. Or it just makes the Guardian look stupid for splashing on the "wrong" story.
Probably find their later editions change.
This is definitely not the "wrong" story. This will be headline news tomorrow on TV. Guardian and FT just got there first; fair play to them for good journalism
The story in the Guardian is about banning Pfizer exports, and a crippling blow to the UK vaccine rollout. The actual story and proposal is about blocking AZ exports (and there are strong doubts expressed whether this will have any impact on the rollout (i'm attracted by the theory that this is UK attempting to replace thh 5m doses from the Indian setback) and about whether the latter amounts to anything other than tokenism).
Unless something changes, it's clearly the 'wrong' story, both in facts about what the EU is proposing and consequences for the UK.
No, we just don't know, The EU has already explicitly threatened to block "vaccine exports" to the UK, Given that this must mean Pfizer (only AZ ingredients, if anything, go EU>UK) we need to be concerned. Very concerned.
Today the EU is obviously briefing British journalists that they might just go for precursors, OR they might do the whole Pfizer thing. Is it brinkmanship? The Nixon strategy? What?
This is not the wrong story. This is THE story. It threatens to blow up the UK/EU relationship for a decade or two. It is monumental.
Arguably, just by putting this story out there, the EU has fucked its reputation in the UK, even with many Remainers, for a loooooong time. Because it comes after all their other insanities. It can't be dismissed as a one-off
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Maybe. Or it just makes the Guardian look stupid for splashing on the "wrong" story.
Probably find their later editions change.
This is definitely not the "wrong" story. This will be headline news tomorrow on TV. Guardian and FT just got there first; fair play to them for good journalism
The story in the Guardian is about banning Pfizer exports, and a crippling blow to the UK vaccine rollout. The actual story and proposal is about blocking AZ exports (and there are strong doubts expressed whether this will have any impact on the rollout (i'm attracted by the theory that this is UK attempting to replace thh 5m doses from the Indian setback) and about whether the latter amounts to anything other than tokenism).
Unless something changes, it's clearly the 'wrong' story, both in facts about what the EU is proposing and consequences for the UK.
No, we just don't know, The EU has already explicitly threatened to block "vaccine exports" to the UK, Given that this must mean Pfizer (only AZ ingredients, if anything, go EU>UK) we need to be concerned. Very concerned.
Today the EU is obviously briefing British journalists that they might just go for precursors, OR they might do the whole Pfizer thing. Is it brinkmanship? The Nixon strategy? What?
This is not the wrong story. This is THE story. It threatens to blow up the UK/EU relationship for a decade or two. It is monumental.
Arguably, just by putting this story out there, the EU has fucked its reputation in the UK, even with many Remainers, for a loooooong time. Because it comes after all their other insanities. It can't be dismissed as a one-off
What I don’t understand it that the EU keeps ramping the rhetoric up.
It really doesn’t care. All that matters is the project.
Your undying and unclouded love for Sturgeon is something to behold.
Can she do no wrong?
Remember, the EU is leaving a light on for her
Maybe that's the same room where they will make this decision whether to ban vaccine exports to the UK on Thursday?
The SNP's ardour for the EU is in danger of looking a bit masochistic, to say the least. "Ach. They really do love us but aye, they will kill yer nanna in Cumbernauld, nae bother"
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Maybe. Or it just makes the Guardian look stupid for splashing on the "wrong" story.
Probably find their later editions change.
This is definitely not the "wrong" story. This will be headline news tomorrow on TV. Guardian and FT just got there first; fair play to them for good journalism
The story in the Guardian is about banning Pfizer exports, and a crippling blow to the UK vaccine rollout. The actual story and proposal is about blocking AZ exports (and there are strong doubts expressed whether this will have any impact on the rollout (i'm attracted by the theory that this is UK attempting to replace thh 5m doses from the Indian setback) and about whether the latter amounts to anything other than tokenism).
Unless something changes, it's clearly the 'wrong' story, both in facts about what the EU is proposing and consequences for the UK.
No, we just don't know, The EU has already explicitly threatened to block "vaccine exports" to the UK, Given that this must mean Pfizer (only AZ ingredients, if anything, go EU>UK) we need to be concerned. Very concerned.
Today the EU is obviously briefing British journalists that they might just go for precursors, OR they might do the whole Pfizer thing. Is it brinkmanship? The Nixon strategy? What?
This is not the wrong story. This is THE story. It threatens to blow up the UK/EU relationship for a decade or two. It is monumental.
Arguably, just by putting this story out there, the EU has fucked its reputation in the UK, even with many Remainers, for a loooooong time. Because it comes after all their other insanities. It can't be dismissed as a one-off
What do you mean - "the EU is clearly briefing that they might go for banning Pfizer". There is no such briefing at all as far as i can tell. The Guardian story doesn't claim such briefing. It is a hypothetical projection of what would happen if they did, but there is no indication (as confirmed by all the subsequent stories) that they will.
The FT story is that Johnson has been ringing around certain EU capitals to check that a Pfizer block isn't going to happen. He seems to have been reassured on that point.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
Fear not, no one in the SNP gives a flying one about the collective decision of the JS household. You might just as well have been honest.
He didn't say he wasn't honest. Whether you like it or not, many of us were brought up British, with English a long way into the background. You don't seem to be able to assimilate this fact - this must all be a veneer to disguise our red-fanged English nationalism. It's really quite odd.
Ah, I get it, he was just stating that other people should be dishonest and not choose just English, otherwise they’d be encouraging the SNP and Plaid. Very good, carry on.
I think he was recommending that people be thoughtful, and consider about which layers of nationality they truly value, not use the survey to offer an annoyed riposte to the perceived rise in anti-English feeling elsewhere. He didn't recommend anyone being dishonest.
Since you’re in a Luckyguysplaining mood, do you agree that identifying as solely English is ‘silliness’?
Oh sorry, am I 'splaining'? Thought we were having a debate between adults.
When you hear that someone you don't know and have never met doesn't particularly like you, your first response is usually 'F** off then'. That's grist to the mill of the very same nationalists whose words provoked the response.
If someone doesn't feel any identification for Britain and doesn't consider themselves as British, but English, of course they should put just that. If someone has always considered themselves British, but is annoyed by Ian Blackford, they should consider whether they're being trolled before they answer.
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Maybe. Or it just makes the Guardian look stupid for splashing on the "wrong" story.
Probably find their later editions change.
This is definitely not the "wrong" story. This will be headline news tomorrow on TV. Guardian and FT just got there first; fair play to them for good journalism
The story in the Guardian is about banning Pfizer exports, and a crippling blow to the UK vaccine rollout. The actual story and proposal is about blocking AZ exports (and there are strong doubts expressed whether this will have any impact on the rollout (i'm attracted by the theory that this is UK attempting to replace thh 5m doses from the Indian setback) and about whether the latter amounts to anything other than tokenism).
Unless something changes, it's clearly the 'wrong' story, both in facts about what the EU is proposing and consequences for the UK.
No, we just don't know, The EU has already explicitly threatened to block "vaccine exports" to the UK, Given that this must mean Pfizer (only AZ ingredients, if anything, go EU>UK) we need to be concerned. Very concerned.
Today the EU is obviously briefing British journalists that they might just go for precursors, OR they might do the whole Pfizer thing. Is it brinkmanship? The Nixon strategy? What?
This is not the wrong story. This is THE story. It threatens to blow up the UK/EU relationship for a decade or two. It is monumental.
Arguably, just by putting this story out there, the EU has fucked its reputation in the UK, even with many Remainers, for a loooooong time. Because it comes after all their other insanities. It can't be dismissed as a one-off
What do you mean - "the EU is clearly briefing that they might go for banning Pfizer". There is no such briefing at all as far as i can tell. The Guardian story doesn't claim such briefing. It is a hypothetical projection of what would happen if they did, but there is no indication (as confirmed by all the subsequent stories) that they will.
The FT story is that Johnson has been ringing around certain EU capitals to check that a Pfizer block isn't going to happen. He seems to have been reassured on that point.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
Several people asked about a 7 day average of the CFR numbers... so....
I would feel happier with a methodology review of what I have done - very much a home baked thing... Anyone interested?
Sure. Would be interested to see how you deal with current infections not yet resolved.
--AS
OK
Well, what I am doing is
1) using a LogNormal distribution to create an expected profile for case -> death. see https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-declining-case-fatality-ratio-in-england/ and https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.02090 2) For each days cases, going forward a day at a time, multiply the density for that day (from (1) ) by the number of cases for the original day. So if we have 23 cases on day 0, we have a value of 23 * density(x) on day x 3) So from each day, we have a curve moving forward representing the probability of deaths from initial days cases. 3) This is the bit where it gets crude = add all these overlapping curves together. So for each day, we have the *sum* of all the intersections of the curves for that day. So if we had 23 cases on day 0, and 12 on day 1, we would have on day 10, 23*density(10), + 12*density(9) etc etc 4) I work out CFR = Actual Deaths that day / Sum from (3)
The weakness, I think is mixing together differing CFR values.
Bearing in mind that I'm still woozy, that seems okay. You're implicitly assuming that reduction in mortality does not change the distribution of the delay between case & death, which seems a reasonable approximation if unlikely to hold strictly true. I don't see a problem with adding the curves in 3, if we assume P(death on day x)=(some time-varying function of x)*#(eligible cases that could die on day x), as the latter events are correctly partitioned by date of case.
However the truth is that the time-varying function should be dependent on the date of case, not the date of death. More difficult to deconvolve that, though, and probably not worth the hassle.
For 7-day smoothing it might be better to average both the numerator and the denominator (of 4), rather than averaging the resulting fractions (if that's what you're doing), since it implicitly weights the data correctly.
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Maybe. Or it just makes the Guardian look stupid for splashing on the "wrong" story.
Probably find their later editions change.
This is definitely not the "wrong" story. This will be headline news tomorrow on TV. Guardian and FT just got there first; fair play to them for good journalism
The story in the Guardian is about banning Pfizer exports, and a crippling blow to the UK vaccine rollout. The actual story and proposal is about blocking AZ exports (and there are strong doubts expressed whether this will have any impact on the rollout (i'm attracted by the theory that this is UK attempting to replace thh 5m doses from the Indian setback) and about whether the latter amounts to anything other than tokenism).
Unless something changes, it's clearly the 'wrong' story, both in facts about what the EU is proposing and consequences for the UK.
No, we just don't know, The EU has already explicitly threatened to block "vaccine exports" to the UK, Given that this must mean Pfizer (only AZ ingredients, if anything, go EU>UK) we need to be concerned. Very concerned.
Today the EU is obviously briefing British journalists that they might just go for precursors, OR they might do the whole Pfizer thing. Is it brinkmanship? The Nixon strategy? What?
This is not the wrong story. This is THE story. It threatens to blow up the UK/EU relationship for a decade or two. It is monumental.
Arguably, just by putting this story out there, the EU has fucked its reputation in the UK, even with many Remainers, for a loooooong time. Because it comes after all their other insanities. It can't be dismissed as a one-off
What do you mean - "the EU is clearly briefing that they might go for banning Pfizer". There is no such briefing at all as far as i can tell. The Guardian story doesn't claim such briefing. It is a hypothetical projection of what would happen if they did, but there is no indication (as confirmed by all the subsequent stories) that they will.
The FT story is that Johnson has been ringing around certain EU capitals to check that a Pfizer block isn't going to happen. He seems to have been reassured on that point.
FFS Ursula said it in a presser. Do catch up
She said that yesterday or the day before. It isn't suddenly a story now. Banning Pfizer exports, as far as we can tell, isn't on the agenda for this meeting on Thursday.
Your undying and unclouded love for Sturgeon is something to behold.
Can she do no wrong?
Remember, the EU is leaving a light on for her
Weird that you see a concise description of the two most recent lines of attack on Sturgeon are an expression of undying and unclouded love, a certain amount of projection of the strength of feeling that she inspires in people like you I feel. Distance lends obsessiveness obviously.
The Guardian front page is what we were talking about earlier. It is a hypothetical based on the EU blocking non AZ exports. All the reports this evening have restricted the suggestion to blocking AZ (only) exports of undetermined nature.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
I know. I wasn't arguing about the facts of the "EU ban". I was just pointing out that this is going to be huge news.
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Maybe. Or it just makes the Guardian look stupid for splashing on the "wrong" story.
Probably find their later editions change.
This is definitely not the "wrong" story. This will be headline news tomorrow on TV. Guardian and FT just got there first; fair play to them for good journalism
The story in the Guardian is about banning Pfizer exports, and a crippling blow to the UK vaccine rollout. The actual story and proposal is about blocking AZ exports (and there are strong doubts expressed whether this will have any impact on the rollout (i'm attracted by the theory that this is UK attempting to replace thh 5m doses from the Indian setback) and about whether the latter amounts to anything other than tokenism).
Unless something changes, it's clearly the 'wrong' story, both in facts about what the EU is proposing and consequences for the UK.
No, we just don't know, The EU has already explicitly threatened to block "vaccine exports" to the UK, Given that this must mean Pfizer (only AZ ingredients, if anything, go EU>UK) we need to be concerned. Very concerned.
Today the EU is obviously briefing British journalists that they might just go for precursors, OR they might do the whole Pfizer thing. Is it brinkmanship? The Nixon strategy? What?
This is not the wrong story. This is THE story. It threatens to blow up the UK/EU relationship for a decade or two. It is monumental.
Arguably, just by putting this story out there, the EU has fucked its reputation in the UK, even with many Remainers, for a loooooong time. Because it comes after all their other insanities. It can't be dismissed as a one-off
What do you mean - "the EU is clearly briefing that they might go for banning Pfizer". There is no such briefing at all as far as i can tell. The Guardian story doesn't claim such briefing. It is a hypothetical projection of what would happen if they did, but there is no indication (as confirmed by all the subsequent stories) that they will.
The FT story is that Johnson has been ringing around certain EU capitals to check that a Pfizer block isn't going to happen. He seems to have been reassured on that point.
When this kicked off a few days ago the talk was about a blanket ban on vaccine exports.
Comments
Is that in any way accurate? Would explain a lot of things - such as why the entire AZ supply isn't UK based.
Hold onto your seatbelts.
I would feel happier with a methodology review of what I have done - very much a home baked thing... Anyone interested?
Kim Jong Il: Hans Brix? Oh no! Oh, herro. Great to see you again, Hans!
Hans Blix: Mr. Il, I was supposed to be allowed to inspect your palace today, but your guards won't let me enter certain areas.
Kim Jong Il: Hans, Hans, Hans! We've been frew this a dozen times. I don't have any weapons of mass destwuction, OK Hans?
Hans Blix: Then let me look around, so I can ease the UN's collective mind.
Kim Jong Il: Hans, you're breakin' my barrs here, Hans, you're breakin' my barrs!
Hans Blix: I'm sorry, but the UN must be firm with you. Let me in, or else.
Kim Jong Il: Or else what?
Hans Blix: Or else we will be very angry with you... and we will write you a letter, telling you how angry we are.
Kim Jong Il: OK, Hans. I'll show you. Stand to your reft.
Hans Blix: [Moves to his left]
Kim Jong Il: A rittle more.
Hans Blix: [Moves to his left again]
Kim Jong Il: Good.
[Opens up trap, Hans falls in]
A German President of the Commission backed by Angela Merkel...I can see Italy and Greece dusting off the old claims for WW2 reparations to wipe off their debts to German banks....
Therefore we are left with dogma and/or embarassment as motivations. The UK should stand firm and if the EU do something materially impactful, should retaliate with some heft and retaliate quickly.
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1373723975927394310
Ultimately, I don't think there is any mileage in the government raising the stakes by putting up the same export blocks which destroys the Pfizer manufacturing supply chain for the whole world. Unless the EU succeeds in blocking Pfizer exports to the UK then this retaliation should be avoided. I do, however, think it's time for contingency planning to be done and for us to speak to Biden's people about a rapid scale up of US manufacturing of Pfizer vaccine doses to supply the UK and all the others who will be affected by our ceasing supply to Puurs.
I'm in favour of both referendums, both delivered the result I wanted/expected, and now that both the UK and Scotland have spoken, I think it's undemocratic to force a second vote within a generation of the first.
https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/1373565380078149636
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEaKX9YYHiQ
https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1373756516084375562?s=20
Certainly the main story for tomorrow. Brace
--AS
written by Michael J. Totten"
https://quillette.com/2021/03/14/leaving-portland/
"We left the UK for Portland expecting a liberal dream. That wasn’t the reality
Five years ago, Candice Pires and her family moved to the ‘liberal, laid-back’ US city of Portland. Would the shockwaves of 2020 spell the end of their lives there?"
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/oct/31/we-left-the-uk-for-portland-expecting-a-liberal-dream-that-wasnt-the-reality
The city threatens to become the British Portland.
This is entirely consistent with the EU complaining consisently about AZ not meeting their delivery targets (and them claiming that they are in breach of contract for doing so). They have no logical grounds (given where they have pitched their tent) to pivot this to targeting companies, such as Pfizer, which are hitting their delivery targets.
Whip round?
The EU has got a big splash in UK media, and that will spread.
Probably find their later editions change.
It is quite acceptable to believe that Scotland should remain in the UK, but that the UK should leave the EU, or (as many SNP supporters believe) the opposite, that Scotland should leave the UK, but shouldn't have left the EU. Or that both should leave both, or that nobody should leave anything. There are valid (and non-valid) reasons for all these positions.
Smashing police stations is a no-no.
Its also bollocks, loads of local businesses have been smashed up and the riots have spread to residental neighborhoods.
Well, what I am doing is
1) using a LogNormal distribution to create an expected profile for case -> death. see https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-declining-case-fatality-ratio-in-england/ and https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.02090
2) For each days cases, going forward a day at a time, multiply the density for that day (from (1) ) by the number of cases for the original day. So if we have 23 cases on day 0, we have a value of 23 * density(x) on day x
3) So from each day, we have a curve moving forward representing the probability of deaths from initial days cases.
3) This is the bit where it gets crude = add all these overlapping curves together. So for each day, we have the *sum* of all the intersections of the curves for that day. So if we had 23 cases on day 0, and 12 on day 1, we would have on day 10, 23*density(10), + 12*density(9) etc etc
4) I work out CFR = Actual Deaths that day / Sum from (3)
The weakness, I think is mixing together differing CFR values.
Yeah, "everyone calm down" as the EU seriously considers, on Thursday, whether it will take illegal measures that will kill thousands of Brits and gravely damage our economy
Also, please calm down about that Hitler guy, it's just Poland.
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1373757948539899906?s=21
And the middle class are now busy involved in gentrification of a couple of other areas. Again, while very quick to bore you about how terrible globalisation is.
Unless something changes, it's clearly the 'wrong' story, both in facts about what the EU is proposing and consequences for the UK.
Can she do no wrong?
Remember, the EU is leaving a light on for her
Today the EU is obviously briefing British journalists that they might just go for precursors, OR they might do the whole Pfizer thing. Is it brinkmanship? The Nixon strategy? What?
This is not the wrong story. This is THE story. It threatens to blow up the UK/EU relationship for a decade or two. It is monumental.
Arguably, just by putting this story out there, the EU has fucked its reputation in the UK, even with many Remainers, for a loooooong time. Because it comes after all their other insanities. It can't be dismissed as a one-off
It really doesn’t care. All that matters is the project.
The FT story is that Johnson has been ringing around certain EU capitals to check that a Pfizer block isn't going to happen. He seems to have been reassured on that point.
When you hear that someone you don't know and have never met doesn't particularly like you, your first response is usually 'F** off then'. That's grist to the mill of the very same nationalists whose words provoked the response.
If someone doesn't feel any identification for Britain and doesn't consider themselves as British, but English, of course they should put just that. If someone has always considered themselves British, but is annoyed by Ian Blackford, they should consider whether they're being trolled before they answer.
NEW THREAD
However the truth is that the time-varying function should be dependent on the date of case, not the date of death. More difficult to deconvolve that, though, and probably not worth the hassle.
For 7-day smoothing it might be better to average both the numerator and the denominator (of 4), rather than averaging the resulting fractions (if that's what you're doing), since it implicitly weights the data correctly.
--AS
https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-coronavirus-vaccine-exports-eu-fair-share/