Anecdotal - have never seen the park as busy as it was today. Ever.
Lockdown is breaking for sure. My dad's friend became a grandfather for the first time last month and he had his daughter and family (including her mother-in-law who has come down from Wrexham to stay with them!) over for lunch today.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
Genuine question - isn't it exactly what India did the other week?
I believe not. I think the Indian contract had clauses which allowed them to delay.
Besides, India is vast and poor, and does not have an insane government telling its people this British vaccine is shit, oh no its good, oh no its lethal, oh wait its excellent, which is why nobody wants it, and we have 10 million unused doses
Everything the EU and its member states do, when it comes to vaccines, just makes things worse.
In that light, we can fully expect them to ban exports of vax to the UK and it will be a disaster for everyone
It’s come to something when somebody can, with a straight face and (for once) a certain amount of reason on their side can say UVDL and Macron are madder than Narendra Modi.
If the EU spent as much time and effort sorting their vaccine rollout as they did trying to f##k up ours, they might not be in so much trouble in the first place.
I had a friend who cheated at all his exams, from GCSE on. Stealing papers etc. By the end - law school - his cheating was so brilliantly elaborate - eg sewing tiny computer screens, fed with data, into his pants (no kidding) - it took him months of fiendish planning.
If he'd spent half the time actually reading law he'd have passed easily, in the end his final cheat failed, and he flunked
The EU is a bit like that.
But always remember, kids, it's a RULES BASED ORGANISATION
Tiny computer screens in his trousers? You are having a laugh, surely?
No, 100% true. He did some amazing stuff. Like he broke into his university and camped in a loft for several days, unseen, so he could then break into an office at night to get the exam papers two days early - very nearly got caught
Anecdotal - have never seen the park as busy as it was today. Ever.
Lockdown is breaking for sure. My dad's friend became a grandfather for the first time last month and he had his daughter and family (including her mother-in-law who has come down from Wrexham to stay with them!) over for lunch today.
The thing I'm finding is just how many people are going into self isolation so they can meet up with family/close friends.
We started without our 4 best players. And when they came on (minus the unavailable Rashford) nothing much changed. This is a team seriously out of steam. Leicester deserved winners.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
Genuine question - isn't it exactly what India did the other week?
I believe not. I think the Indian contract had clauses which allowed them to delay.
Besides, India is vast and poor, and does not have an insane government telling its people this British vaccine is shit, oh no its good, oh no its lethal, oh wait its excellent, which is why nobody wants it, and we have 10 million unused doses
Everything the EU and its member states do, when it comes to vaccines, just makes things worse.
In that light, we can fully expect them to ban exports of vax to the UK and it will be a disaster for everyone
It’s come to something when somebody can, with a straight face and (for once) a certain amount of reason on their side can say UVDL and Macron are madder than Narendra Modi.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
Genuine question - isn't it exactly what India did the other week?
I believe not. I think the Indian contract had clauses which allowed them to delay.
Besides, India is vast and poor, and does not have an insane government telling its people this British vaccine is shit, oh no its good, oh no its lethal, oh wait its excellent, which is why nobody wants it, and we have 10 million unused doses
Everything the EU and its member states do, when it comes to vaccines, just makes things worse.
In that light, we can fully expect them to ban exports of vax to the UK and it will be a disaster for everyone
It’s come to something when somebody can, with a straight face and (for once) a certain amount of reason on their side can say UVDL and Macron are madder than Narendra Modi.
And madder than Trump. And Erdogan. And Putin.
You could add Duterte to that list.
But however bad she is UvdL is not as bad as Nicholas Maduro.
The thing about any Pfizer export bans (and why it sort of feels unlikely, and we are talking theoreticals/hypotheticals) is that Pfizer are on track with their EU delivery schedules. Even if exports were banned, the EU would therefore presumably have no contractual right to the supplies being exported. Pfizer could i guess leave them sitting in storage somewhere?
And given the complexities involved in Pfizer distribution, could the EU actually do anything with a significant increase in Pfizer supplies anyway?
What they seem to be talking about is blocking export of *Pfizer* until the EU gets what it wants in terms of *AZN*.
Are they actually talking about that - or is this UK press speculation on the hypothetical damage they can do. They also seem to be grossly overestimating the potential supply of AZ to the EU from the UK, even if they got the lot? Which of course runs into the point about a delay of 2 months in the UK being a speeding up of a week in the EU.
The AZN plants in the EU haven't been exporting to the UK. This is publicly known, since they invented their export registration scheme as little while ago.
1) So they could impose a ban on the the thing that isn't happening - export of AZN to the UK. Which would just hit countries like Australia. 2) Or they could try and ban Pfizer export.
Given the confusing messaging coming out of various bits of the EU, it is hard to say.
When I was at the ONS I went on some team building courses, one of which was a prisoner's dilemma set up. I can't remember the details, but I was in the group that was getting screwed over by the other lot. Anyway, the set up meant we could screw them over in a retaliation and we did precisely that. Sure enough, the trainer asked us why we had felt the need to do that.
If the EU do play silly buggers, I'd like us to rise above it. But I'd also very much be up for Boris addressing the nation and calling the EU out for what they are. If Starmer wants to use his right to reply, that would be up to him...
We started without our 4 best players. And when they came on (minus the unavailable Rashford) nothing much changed. This is a team seriously out of steam. Leicester deserved winners.
As one my Manchester United supporting friends put it recently, if Fernandes has a long term injury like Van Dijk then United are getting relegated.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
Genuine question - isn't it exactly what India did the other week?
I believe not. I think the Indian contract had clauses which allowed them to delay.
Besides, India is vast and poor, and does not have an insane government telling its people this British vaccine is shit, oh no its good, oh no its lethal, oh wait its excellent, which is why nobody wants it, and we have 10 million unused doses
Everything the EU and its member states do, when it comes to vaccines, just makes things worse.
In that light, we can fully expect them to ban exports of vax to the UK and it will be a disaster for everyone
It’s come to something when somebody can, with a straight face and (for once) a certain amount of reason on their side can say UVDL and Macron are madder than Narendra Modi.
And madder than Trump. And Erdogan. And Putin.
You could add Duterte to that list.
But however bad she is UvdL is not as bad as Nicholas Maduro.
It occurs to me that if Putin ever did something similar to what the EU is - allegedly - contemplating, we would have no hesitation calling it an act of war. We might not go to war, because Realpolitik, but we would call it that.
An unlawful attack which causes our economy major damage and kills Britons. What else is it?
He may be correct but he’s not a “senior EU advisor”. He a senior adviser for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
Genuine question - isn't it exactly what India did the other week?
I believe not. I think the Indian contract had clauses which allowed them to delay.
Besides, India is vast and poor, and does not have an insane government telling its people this British vaccine is shit, oh no its good, oh no its lethal, oh wait its excellent, which is why nobody wants it, and we have 10 million unused doses
Everything the EU and its member states do, when it comes to vaccines, just makes things worse.
In that light, we can fully expect them to ban exports of vax to the UK and it will be a disaster for everyone
It’s come to something when somebody can, with a straight face and (for once) a certain amount of reason on their side can say UVDL and Macron are madder than Narendra Modi.
And madder than Trump. And Erdogan. And Putin.
And Boris.
For all the supposed European sophistication and social advancement, the continent is being run by the love child of Frau Farbissina and Barry Chuckle. And still the national leaders are managing to outdo her in incompetence and petulance.
When I was at the ONS I went on some team building courses, one of which was a prisoner's dilemma set up. I can't remember the details, but I was in the group that was getting screwed over by the other lot. Anyway, the set up meant we could screw them over in a retaliation and we did precisely that. Sure enough, the trainer asked us why we had felt the need to do that.
If the EU do play silly buggers, I'd like us to rise above it. But I'd also very much be up for Boris addressing the nation and calling the EU out for what they are. If Starmer wants to use his right to reply, that would be up to him...
I think what we should do is ensure we send no vaccines to the EU but send them to really poor countries of the world.
I do wonder why so many people love uvdl in the guardian, she owes her position mainly to coming from a wealthy aristocratic family that made their money in cotton during the slavery days. Is the reason she hasnt been pulled down and thrown in a harbour?
If the EU spent as much time and effort sorting their vaccine rollout as they did trying to f##k up ours, they might not be in so much trouble in the first place.
I had a friend who cheated at all his exams, from GCSE on. Stealing papers etc. By the end - law school - his cheating was so brilliantly elaborate - eg sewing tiny computer screens, fed with data, into his pants (no kidding) - it took him months of fiendish planning.
If he'd spent half the time actually reading law he'd have passed easily, in the end his final cheat failed, and he flunked
The EU is a bit like that.
But always remember, kids, it's a RULES BASED ORGANISATION
Tiny computer screens in his trousers? You are having a laugh, surely?
No, 100% true. He did some amazing stuff. Like he broke into his university and camped in a loft for several days, unseen, so he could then break into an office at night to get the exam papers two days early - very nearly got caught
Are you sure he wasn't a character from a thriller? If not he would certainly make a good inspiration for one.
Does anyone actually know the respective figures of AZ supply to the EU to date, and the AZ supply to the UK? Not per capita or anything like that. Just raw numbers.
UVDL's current numbers say 30 million AZ to EU in Q1.
If the EU spent as much time and effort sorting their vaccine rollout as they did trying to f##k up ours, they might not be in so much trouble in the first place.
I had a friend who cheated at all his exams, from GCSE on. Stealing papers etc. By the end - law school - his cheating was so brilliantly elaborate - eg sewing tiny computer screens, fed with data, into his pants (no kidding) - it took him months of fiendish planning.
If he'd spent half the time actually reading law he'd have passed easily, in the end his final cheat failed, and he flunked
The EU is a bit like that.
But always remember, kids, it's a RULES BASED ORGANISATION
Tiny computer screens in his trousers? You are having a laugh, surely?
No, 100% true. He did some amazing stuff. Like he broke into his university and camped in a loft for several days, unseen, so he could then break into an office at night to get the exam papers two days early - very nearly got caught
Are you sure he wasn't a character from a thriller? If not he would certainly make a good inspiration for one.
He's definitely real. Is now semi-retired in Worcestershire, where he smokes and drinks heavily.
A few years ago his doctor called him and said "Derek [not his real name] if you don't stop smoking and drinking so much you will be dead within five years".... so he decided to cash in his pension, and he carried on smoking and drinking
We started without our 4 best players. And when they came on (minus the unavailable Rashford) nothing much changed. This is a team seriously out of steam. Leicester deserved winners.
As one my Manchester United supporting friends put it recently, if Fernandes has a long term injury like Van Dijk then United are getting relegated.
He's found carrying the team too hard for the last couple of months. He is nothing like he was up to now. Martial surely needs to be moved on. Quite pointless. Cavani as well. Either Greenwood is our next 9 or we get someone else.
He may be correct but he’s not a “senior EU advisor”. He a senior adviser for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London.
If the EU spent as much time and effort sorting their vaccine rollout as they did trying to f##k up ours, they might not be in so much trouble in the first place.
I had a friend who cheated at all his exams, from GCSE on. Stealing papers etc. By the end - law school - his cheating was so brilliantly elaborate - eg sewing tiny computer screens, fed with data, into his pants (no kidding) - it took him months of fiendish planning.
If he'd spent half the time actually reading law he'd have passed easily, in the end his final cheat failed, and he flunked
The EU is a bit like that.
But always remember, kids, it's a RULES BASED ORGANISATION
Tiny computer screens in his trousers? You are having a laugh, surely?
No, 100% true. He did some amazing stuff. Like he broke into his university and camped in a loft for several days, unseen, so he could then break into an office at night to get the exam papers two days early - very nearly got caught
Are you sure he wasn't a character from a thriller? If not he would certainly make a good inspiration for one.
Gavin Maxwell did something similar - there’s quite an exciting account of it in, I think, Raven Seek Thy Brother.
CNN) The Australian government has declared a natural disaster in large swaths of New South Wales (NSW) as heavy rains batter the state and force thousands to evacuate.
Rains have been inundating communities since Thursday, but parts of the east coast tipped into crisis on Saturday as a major dam overflowed, adding to swollen rivers and causing flash flooding.
The NSW and federal government have signed 16 natural disaster declarations in areas spanning the central and mid-north coast, from Hunter Valley near Sydney to Coff's Harbour, said NSW Emergency Services Minister David Elliott in a news conference on Sunday.
"This is nothing like we've seen since the 1960s," State Premier Berejiklian said. In parts of the state that have been hit harder, this is a once-a-century event; in other regions like the Hawkesbury area, it's a "one-in-50-years" event, she said.
If the EU spent as much time and effort sorting their vaccine rollout as they did trying to f##k up ours, they might not be in so much trouble in the first place.
I had a friend who cheated at all his exams, from GCSE on. Stealing papers etc. By the end - law school - his cheating was so brilliantly elaborate - eg sewing tiny computer screens, fed with data, into his pants (no kidding) - it took him months of fiendish planning.
If he'd spent half the time actually reading law he'd have passed easily, in the end his final cheat failed, and he flunked
The EU is a bit like that.
But always remember, kids, it's a RULES BASED ORGANISATION
Tiny computer screens in his trousers? You are having a laugh, surely?
No, 100% true. He did some amazing stuff. Like he broke into his university and camped in a loft for several days, unseen, so he could then break into an office at night to get the exam papers two days early - very nearly got caught
Are you sure he wasn't a character from a thriller? If not he would certainly make a good inspiration for one.
Gavin Maxwell did something similar - there’s quite an exciting account of it in, I think, Raven Seek Thy Brother.
Bizarrely, the behaviour of several of my friends has often reminded me of Gavin Maxwell. True story. The insane risk taking.
The biography by Douglas Botting is superb.
Since reading it, I have heard further gossip from people who knew Maxwell personally. Not a nice man (unlike my friends, who are nice, just a bit mad)
I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon
Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
FWIW I reckon they will step back from the brink. But it is no longer impossible
How do we react? The pressure on Boris to block the export of lipids from Croda will be intense. I guess, sensibly, he should resist, but will he be able? The media and public will be screaming for a retaliation in kind. With some reason
And the chaos it will cause in global supply chains? Why should American pharma companies (the source of most expected new vaccines) regard the EU as a reliable actor, if they rip up Pfizer contracts and seize doses? It's Venezuela-type shit.
We started without our 4 best players. And when they came on (minus the unavailable Rashford) nothing much changed. This is a team seriously out of steam. Leicester deserved winners.
Ndidi and Tielemans are a great midfield pairing, and 'Nacho is on fire, feeding off Vardy. We should finish the season strongly with several players back after the international break.
I would have loved to be in that stadium at the whistle. It is a year since Iast went to a match, and Leicester playing as well as I have seen.
I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon
Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
We won't.
I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.
Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.
Makes perfect sense.
You say we won't. What do you propose we do. I agree a war is not the answer but anything we do will have the remainers crying. You I believe are a remainer so what do you propose we should do?
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
Genuine question - isn't it exactly what India did the other week?
I believe not. I think the Indian contract had clauses which allowed them to delay.
Besides, India is vast and poor, and does not have an insane government telling its people this British vaccine is shit, oh no its good, oh no its lethal, oh wait its excellent, which is why nobody wants it, and we have 10 million unused doses
Everything the EU and its member states do, when it comes to vaccines, just makes things worse.
In that light, we can fully expect them to ban exports of vax to the UK and it will be a disaster for everyone
It’s come to something when somebody can, with a straight face and (for once) a certain amount of reason on their side can say UVDL and Macron are madder than Narendra Modi.
I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon
Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
We won't.
I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.
Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.
Makes perfect sense.
You say we won't. What do you propose we do. I agree a war is not the answer but anything we do will have the remainers crying. You I believe are a remainer so what do you propose we should do?
I said we won't be quiescent and accept it.
I'm just saying it won't be a military response as Leon hopes.
We started without our 4 best players. And when they came on (minus the unavailable Rashford) nothing much changed. This is a team seriously out of steam. Leicester deserved winners.
Ndidi and Tielemans are a great midfield pairing, and 'Nacho is on fire, feeding off Vardy. We should finish the season strongly with several players back after the international break.
I would have loved to be in that stadium at the whistle. It is a year since Iast went to a match, and Leicester playing as well as I have seen.
Their midfield was excellent as was their defence. Well deserved winners, the score was actually closer than the game.
I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon
Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
We won't.
I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.
Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.
Makes perfect sense.
You say we won't. What do you propose we do. I agree a war is not the answer but anything we do will have the remainers crying. You I believe are a remainer so what do you propose we should do?
I said we won't be quiescent and accept it.
I'm just saying it won't be a military response as Leon hopes.
So you suggest we do what?
If for example we cut off the pfizer precursors in response......how does that play out in europe are they going to be all "hmm maybe we didn't want to do that" or are they going to be "Perfidious albion....double down" I suspect the latter
I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon
Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
We won't.
I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.
Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.
Makes perfect sense.
You say we won't. What do you propose we do. I agree a war is not the answer but anything we do will have the remainers crying. You I believe are a remainer so what do you propose we should do?
I said we won't be quiescent and accept it.
I'm just saying it won't be a military response as Leon hopes.
"hopes"?!
Don't be RIDIC
I don't hope we GO TO WAR with the EU. For a start they'd probably win, unless we do a first strike on Paris. And the Force de Frappe. OK, its do-able. But we SHOULDN'T.
What I'm saying is, if the EU does this crazy thing, we will be obliged by public opinion to strike back, somehow.
I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon
Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
We won't.
I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.
Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.
Makes perfect sense.
You say we won't. What do you propose we do. I agree a war is not the answer but anything we do will have the remainers crying. You I believe are a remainer so what do you propose we should do?
I said we won't be quiescent and accept it.
I'm just saying it won't be a military response as Leon hopes.
So you suggest we do what?
If for example we cut off the pfizer precursors in response......how does that play out in europe are they going to be all "hmm maybe we didn't want to do that" or are they going to be "Perfidious albion....double down" I suspect the latter
The EU would probably like us to cut off the supply of the ingredients as they could just blame us for their failings.
He may be correct but he’s not a “senior EU advisor”. He a senior adviser for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London.
He used to be the Director of IISS when I was there. Ah, upon checking, he still is.
However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further
I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon
Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
We won't.
I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.
Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.
Makes perfect sense.
You say we won't. What do you propose we do. I agree a war is not the answer but anything we do will have the remainers crying. You I believe are a remainer so what do you propose we should do?
I said we won't be quiescent and accept it.
I'm just saying it won't be a military response as Leon hopes.
So you suggest we do what?
If for example we cut off the pfizer precursors in response......how does that play out in europe are they going to be all "hmm maybe we didn't want to do that" or are they going to be "Perfidious albion....double down" I suspect the latter
Rise above it and look to expand our vaccine production facilities and make ourselves the number one location in Europe for pharma.
However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further
That sounds as though it is the vaccine substance, to be finished off in the Welsh plant, not the final vaccine doses.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
Are you sure? Based on more than 46 years of daily observations, I have yet to record a single incidence of my death. At some point - perhaps after just a few hundred more observations - we will be forced to conclude that I'm simply not going to die.
Care for a wager?
--AS
Sure. You pay me £1 for every day I'm alive, and then - should I die in the future - I will pay you £1,000 in the (unlikely) event of my death.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
I'm inclined to call bullshit on the numbers in this model. Unless I see the model itself.
His number of the vaccinations already given is off by nearly 2 million for a start.
And the daily rate it uses in practice if a "ban" happens is under 200k per day.
First rule of reading the Guardian: if the article has numbers in it and is not fully referenced, 90% of the time there is a significant proportion of bovine excrement involved.
However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further
That sounds as though it is the vaccine substance, to be finished off in the Welsh plant, not the final vaccine doses.
Blocking vaccine ingredients really would be desperation though. Blocking doses raises the prospects of using them for themselves. So at least generates a corresponding EU gain for the action taken. But how does blocking ingredients do anything except reduce the overall supply? Are they suggesting that the shortages on the EU supply line are down to shortages of ingredients? That sounds unlikely.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further
That sounds as though it is the vaccine substance, to be finished off in the Welsh plant, not the final vaccine doses.
Yes, which makes more sense
That makes it even more problematic. If the EU strikes at us by seizing a key vaccine ingredient, then of course we will, logically, do the exact same in return, unless we are incredibly noble. Are we?? The logic of war says No. Someone hits you, you hit back, just as hard, maybe in the same place
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
Yes, possibly. In which case we should calmly stare them down
I despise them all, now, so they've already poisoned relations WITH ME. I hope they're happy
Are you sure? Based on more than 46 years of daily observations, I have yet to record a single incidence of my death. At some point - perhaps after just a few hundred more observations - we will be forced to conclude that I'm simply not going to die.
Care for a wager?
--AS
Sure. You pay me £1 for every day I'm alive, and then - should I die in the future - I will pay you £1,000 in the (unlikely) event of my death.
What're you offering in the other side of that spread?
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
I don't think we would or should retaliate.
I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further
That sounds as though it is the vaccine substance, to be finished off in the Welsh plant, not the final vaccine doses.
Yes, which makes more sense
That makes it even more problematic. If the EU strikes at us by seizing a key vaccine ingredient, then of course we will, logically, do the exact same in return, unless we are incredibly noble. Are we?? The logic of war says No. Someone hits you, you hit back, just as hard, maybe in the same place
This is Guns of August stuff
Not sure we would - that would make things worse. For us (as well as everyone else) If we are expecting 30m Pfizer doses then cutting off Pfizer supply does nothing to help us, if the EU is not threatening to block Pfizer exports.
It would be different if we were receiving no Pfizer doses, or Pfizer exports were being blocked.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
But there's absolutely no way the UK government will voluntarily give up vaccines its procured. They'd have to keep it a secret because if it ever became public knowledge...
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
I don't think we would or should retaliate.
I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
We would definitely retaliate. Their act would cause a further drop in UK GDP of about 3-5% (rough guess) and kill maybe 5-10,000 Brits. The idea we'd just sit there and take it is fantastically naive
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
Well I'm of the opinion that they won't, they really won't want to piss off pharma and the fact pharma makes more than just Covid-19 vaccines.
But they are desperate, remember our current Home Secretary threatened Ireland's food supply in the hopes of getting a good Brexit deal, so who knows.
According to MaxPB we arent getting vaccines from the eu anymore . Now maybe he is incorrect or maybe not. I he isnt not going to delay us at all
We have no - as far as I'm aware - domestic Pfizer-BioNTech production capability, although we do produce the lipids used it its manufacture.
The Moderna vaccines we're getting are made in Switzerland, but are filled and finished in Spain. In theory, Spain could block export, but if they did that, Moderna would simply change where they were getting phials filled - it's not high value work, frankly, they could move the fill to the UK with little impact on supply chains.
However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further
That sounds as though it is the vaccine substance, to be finished off in the Welsh plant, not the final vaccine doses.
Yes, which makes more sense
That makes it even more problematic. If the EU strikes at us by seizing a key vaccine ingredient, then of course we will, logically, do the exact same in return, unless we are incredibly noble. Are we?? The logic of war says No. Someone hits you, you hit back, just as hard, maybe in the same place
This is Guns of August stuff
Not sure we would - that would make things worse. For us (as well as everyone else) If we are expecting 30m Pfizer doses then cutting off Pfizer supply does nothing to help us, if the EU is not threatening to block Pfizer exports.
It would be different if we were receiving no Pfizer doses, or Pfizer exports were being blocked.
But it sounds as though they are threatening to ban the export of the ingredient necessary for AZN, which would significantly affect production.
The thing about any Pfizer export bans (and why it sort of feels unlikely, and we are talking theoreticals/hypotheticals) is that Pfizer are on track with their EU delivery schedules. Even if exports were banned, the EU would therefore presumably have no contractual right to the supplies being exported. Pfizer could i guess leave them sitting in storage somewhere?
And given the complexities involved in Pfizer distribution, could the EU actually do anything with a significant increase in Pfizer supplies anyway?
What they seem to be talking about is blocking export of *Pfizer* until the EU gets what it wants in terms of *AZN*.
Are they actually talking about that - or is this UK press speculation on the hypothetical damage they can do. They also seem to be grossly overestimating the potential supply of AZ to the EU from the UK, even if they got the lot? Which of course runs into the point about a delay of 2 months in the UK being a speeding up of a week in the EU.
The AZN plants in the EU haven't been exporting to the UK. This is publicly known, since they invented their export registration scheme as little while ago.
1) So they could impose a ban on the the thing that isn't happening - export of AZN to the UK. Which would just hit countries like Australia. 2) Or they could try and ban Pfizer export.
Given the confusing messaging coming out of various bits of the EU, it is hard to say.
Suppose somehow the EU got what it seems to want and the UK handed over the AZ vaccine produced in the UK.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
Yes, possibly. In which case we should calmly stare them down
I despise them all, now, so they've already poisoned relations WITH ME. I hope they're happy
What concessions are they proposing the UK makes? The UK aren't blocking exports. They are just holding AZ to their contract.
And even if we relinquished the entire AZ supply to the EU (or more "equitably" - the equivalent supply of AZ that we received from the EU plants early on in January) it would make an almost insignificant dent on the EU shortfall.
Some of the EU rhetoric seems to be obscuring the vastly different size of the EU and UK in vaccine supply. The EU has 450 million people. The UK 60m. The EU shortfall from AZ in Q1 alone is greater than the entire UK population, let alone what AZ supply to us.
The thing about any Pfizer export bans (and why it sort of feels unlikely, and we are talking theoreticals/hypotheticals) is that Pfizer are on track with their EU delivery schedules. Even if exports were banned, the EU would therefore presumably have no contractual right to the supplies being exported. Pfizer could i guess leave them sitting in storage somewhere?
And given the complexities involved in Pfizer distribution, could the EU actually do anything with a significant increase in Pfizer supplies anyway?
What they seem to be talking about is blocking export of *Pfizer* until the EU gets what it wants in terms of *AZN*.
Are they actually talking about that - or is this UK press speculation on the hypothetical damage they can do. They also seem to be grossly overestimating the potential supply of AZ to the EU from the UK, even if they got the lot? Which of course runs into the point about a delay of 2 months in the UK being a speeding up of a week in the EU.
The AZN plants in the EU haven't been exporting to the UK. This is publicly known, since they invented their export registration scheme as little while ago.
1) So they could impose a ban on the the thing that isn't happening - export of AZN to the UK. Which would just hit countries like Australia. 2) Or they could try and ban Pfizer export.
Given the confusing messaging coming out of various bits of the EU, it is hard to say.
Suppose somehow the EU got what it seems to want and the UK handed over the AZ vaccine produced in the UK.
What would the EU do with it?
What's the point having all those fridges if you aren't going to fill them?
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
I don't think we would or should retaliate.
I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
I must say, I am beginning to wonder if there is something fishy going on at the Halix plant in NL, and cause for legitimate EU griping. Have AZN deliberately withheld the application for EU approval so that it can use the vaccine substance produced there to meet its UK contractual obligations?
Something odd is going on in that whole saga, and that seems to make the most sense of the facts.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
Yes, possibly. In which case we should calmly stare them down
I despise them all, now, so they've already poisoned relations WITH ME. I hope they're happy
What concessions are they proposing the UK makes? The UK aren't blocking exports. They are just holding AZ to their contract.
And even if we relinquished the entire AZ supply to the EU (or more "equitably" - the equivalent supply of AZ that we received from the EU plants early on in January) it would make an almost insignificant dent on the EU shortfall.
It's pure Mafia tactics. Give us what we want, or else. They can't even dress it up as keeping EU vaccines in the EU, it's seizing a crucial ingredient so the UK vaccine drive falters.
That is: IF the FT is correct. Given that the article seems quite confused as to what is potentially being "seized" - vaccines or ingredients - who knows.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
But there's absolutely no way the UK government will voluntarily give up vaccines its procured. They'd have to keep it a secret because if it ever became public knowledge...
For some of the deliveries due in May and June, though, after life in the UK has returned to normal... well, we could sell them to the EU. Or we could accept lower priority on deliveries.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
So they're going for the Richard Nixon madman approach?
However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further
That sounds as though it is the vaccine substance, to be finished off in the Welsh plant, not the final vaccine doses.
Yes, which makes more sense
That makes it even more problematic. If the EU strikes at us by seizing a key vaccine ingredient, then of course we will, logically, do the exact same in return, unless we are incredibly noble. Are we?? The logic of war says No. Someone hits you, you hit back, just as hard, maybe in the same place
This is Guns of August stuff
Not sure we would - that would make things worse. For us (as well as everyone else) If we are expecting 30m Pfizer doses then cutting off Pfizer supply does nothing to help us, if the EU is not threatening to block Pfizer exports.
It would be different if we were receiving no Pfizer doses, or Pfizer exports were being blocked.
But it sounds as though they are threatening to ban the export of the ingredient necessary for AZN, which would significantly affect production.
Yes it would. But blocking Pfizer ingredients in response would just compound our shortfall. We are expecting 30m doses in the next few months. If we blocked Pfizer ingredients that figure would reduce to zero.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
I don't think we would or should retaliate.
The way to avoid it being an issue is to make it absolutely clear that we would retaliate immediately and proportionately.
With the defence review coming up I have been discussing the latest pre-announcement announcements with a friend who is a former RAF strategic planner and intelligence officer. He recommended the following link to give some insight into the thinking within the MOD at the moment.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
If they went low, I'd be inclined to go high. Wonder if the Magnitsky provisions might come in handy; I'm sure someone could spin up an argument for denying shipment of contracted items during a pandemic as a human rights abuse.
Are you sure? Based on more than 46 years of daily observations, I have yet to record a single incidence of my death. At some point - perhaps after just a few hundred more observations - we will be forced to conclude that I'm simply not going to die.
Care for a wager?
--AS
Sure. You pay me £1 for every day I'm alive, and then - should I die in the future - I will pay you £1,000 in the (unlikely) event of my death.
I think if one side of the wager is per day then the other should also be.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
I don't think we would or should retaliate.
I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
The obvious option: Naval blockades of cargo ships bound for EU ports at Jutland, Gibraltar and the Channel.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
If they went low, I'd be inclined to go high. Wonder if the Magnitsky provisions might come in handy; I'm sure someone could spin up an argument for denying shipment of contracted items during a pandemic as a human rights abuse.
"The right to health is the economic, social, and cultural right to a universal minimum standard of health to which all individuals are entitled. The concept of a right to health has been enumerated in international agreements which include the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, and the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities."
Not sure why some are so strongly anti-Census. We've been doing this every 10 years since 1801 (maybe not 1941). The point is the information obtained is incredibly useful for planning things like schools, homes, hospitals, transport - small things like that.
Some of the questions that infuriate most are voluntary such as religion and sexual orientation.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
If they went low, I'd be inclined to go high. Wonder if the Magnitsky provisions might come in handy; I'm sure someone could spin up an argument for denying shipment of contracted items during a pandemic as a human rights abuse.
Well there was that time last year when the French confiscated our entire order of PPE that was expected to supply the NHS comfortably. Which led directly to the disastrous scramble on PPE that followed. Because we assumed our supplies were secure and didn't develop alternative supply lines until it was too late.
One to remember everytime the EU/EU countries try to argue that they've taken the high ground throughout the course of the pandemic.
Comments
This is an apparently senior EU advisor, with 17k followers
He thinks the EU has three bad options, and a UK ban is one of them. So it is being considered
https://twitter.com/FHeisbourg/status/1373704172621725697?s=20
Clearly the poll doesn't show that, she's not even in the top two.
But however bad she is UvdL is not as bad as Nicholas Maduro.
And as she was third your comment is ridiculous too.
1) So they could impose a ban on the the thing that isn't happening - export of AZN to the UK. Which would just hit countries like Australia.
2) Or they could try and ban Pfizer export.
Given the confusing messaging coming out of various bits of the EU, it is hard to say.
If the EU do play silly buggers, I'd like us to rise above it. But I'd also very much be up for Boris addressing the nation and calling the EU out for what they are. If Starmer wants to use his right to reply, that would be up to him...
An unlawful attack which causes our economy major damage and kills Britons. What else is it?
For all the supposed European sophistication and social advancement, the continent is being run by the love child of Frau Farbissina and Barry Chuckle. And still the national leaders are managing to outdo her in incompetence and petulance.
A few years ago his doctor called him and said "Derek [not his real name] if you don't stop smoking and drinking so much you will be dead within five years".... so he decided to cash in his pension, and he carried on smoking and drinking
(OK for Palace it was in the same season, but for Southampton it was the previous season, but it is close enough.)
Rains have been inundating communities since Thursday, but parts of the east coast tipped into crisis on Saturday as a major dam overflowed, adding to swollen rivers and causing flash flooding.
The NSW and federal government have signed 16 natural disaster declarations in areas spanning the central and mid-north coast, from Hunter Valley near Sydney to Coff's Harbour, said NSW Emergency Services Minister David Elliott in a news conference on Sunday.
"This is nothing like we've seen since the 1960s," State Premier Berejiklian said. In parts of the state that have been hit harder, this is a once-a-century event; in other regions like the Hawkesbury area, it's a "one-in-50-years" event, she said.
The biography by Douglas Botting is superb.
Since reading it, I have heard further gossip from people who knew Maxwell personally. Not a nice man (unlike my friends, who are nice, just a bit mad)
I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.
Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.
Makes perfect sense.
How do we react? The pressure on Boris to block the export of lipids from Croda will be intense. I guess, sensibly, he should resist, but will he be able? The media and public will be screaming for a retaliation in kind. With some reason
And the chaos it will cause in global supply chains? Why should American pharma companies (the source of most expected new vaccines) regard the EU as a reliable actor, if they rip up Pfizer contracts and seize doses? It's Venezuela-type shit.
Fully deserved from a Man Utd supporter since 1954
I would have loved to be in that stadium at the whistle. It is a year since Iast went to a match, and Leicester playing as well as I have seen.
I'm just saying it won't be a military response as Leon hopes.
On the downside we may need to check for implanted chips....
If for example we cut off the pfizer precursors in response......how does that play out in europe are they going to be all "hmm maybe we didn't want to do that" or are they going to be "Perfidious albion....double down" I suspect the latter
Don't be RIDIC
I don't hope we GO TO WAR with the EU. For a start they'd probably win, unless we do a first strike on Paris. And the Force de Frappe. OK, its do-able. But we SHOULDN'T.
What I'm saying is, if the EU does this crazy thing, we will be obliged by public opinion to strike back, somehow.
https://www.ft.com/content/254fc733-1568-4ea7-9fdf-069285c7f9c1
However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further
Be careful whose tweets you publish.
One might add be careful who you raise to the Lords, but I expect no better of the scum Johnson.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
His number of the vaccinations already given is off by nearly 2 million for a start.
And the daily rate it uses in practice if a "ban" happens is under 200k per day.
First rule of reading the Guardian: if the article has numbers in it and is not fully referenced, 90% of the time there is a significant proportion of bovine excrement involved.
That makes it even more problematic. If the EU strikes at us by seizing a key vaccine ingredient, then of course we will, logically, do the exact same in return, unless we are incredibly noble. Are we?? The logic of war says No. Someone hits you, you hit back, just as hard, maybe in the same place
This is Guns of August stuff
I despise them all, now, so they've already poisoned relations WITH ME. I hope they're happy
It would be different if we were receiving no Pfizer doses, or Pfizer exports were being blocked.
The Moderna vaccines we're getting are made in Switzerland, but are filled and finished in Spain. In theory, Spain could block export, but if they did that, Moderna would simply change where they were getting phials filled - it's not high value work, frankly, they could move the fill to the UK with little impact on supply chains.
What would the EU do with it?
And even if we relinquished the entire AZ supply to the EU (or more "equitably" - the equivalent supply of AZ that we received from the EU plants early on in January) it would make an almost insignificant dent on the EU shortfall.
Some of the EU rhetoric seems to be obscuring the vastly different size of the EU and UK in vaccine supply. The EU has 450 million people. The UK 60m. The EU shortfall from AZ in Q1 alone is greater than the entire UK population, let alone what AZ supply to us.
Something odd is going on in that whole saga, and that seems to make the most sense of the facts.
Which proves Monarchy=Socialism...
That is: IF the FT is correct. Given that the article seems quite confused as to what is potentially being "seized" - vaccines or ingredients - who knows.
https://thinpinstripedline.blogspot.com/2021/03/into-grey-zone-uk-military-operations.html
--AS
Not sure why some are so strongly anti-Census. We've been doing this every 10 years since 1801 (maybe not 1941). The point is the information obtained is incredibly useful for planning things like schools, homes, hospitals, transport - small things like that.
Some of the questions that infuriate most are voluntary such as religion and sexual orientation.
One to remember everytime the EU/EU countries try to argue that they've taken the high ground throughout the course of the pandemic.