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Just 7% would vote for The Queen to be our Head of State – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    This is the kind of thing that makes me think they might do it.

    This is an apparently senior EU advisor, with 17k followers

    He thinks the EU has three bad options, and a UK ban is one of them. So it is being considered

    https://twitter.com/FHeisbourg/status/1373704172621725697?s=20
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    edited March 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Anecdotal - have never seen the park as busy as it was today. Ever.

    Lockdown is breaking for sure. My dad's friend became a grandfather for the first time last month and he had his daughter and family (including her mother-in-law who has come down from Wrexham to stay with them!) over for lunch today.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    Omnium said:

    This has to be the daftest header ever foisted upon PB. Replace the Queen with the Queen?

    Clearly you cannot read.
    I'm reasonably sure I can. Do feel free to expand upon your view though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Leon said:

    Sforzando said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    Genuine question - isn't it exactly what India did the other week?
    I believe not. I think the Indian contract had clauses which allowed them to delay.

    Besides, India is vast and poor, and does not have an insane government telling its people this British vaccine is shit, oh no its good, oh no its lethal, oh wait its excellent, which is why nobody wants it, and we have 10 million unused doses

    Everything the EU and its member states do, when it comes to vaccines, just makes things worse.

    In that light, we can fully expect them to ban exports of vax to the UK and it will be a disaster for everyone
    It’s come to something when somebody can, with a straight face and (for once) a certain amount of reason on their side can say UVDL and Macron are madder than Narendra Modi.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    If the EU spent as much time and effort sorting their vaccine rollout as they did trying to f##k up ours, they might not be in so much trouble in the first place.

    I had a friend who cheated at all his exams, from GCSE on. Stealing papers etc. By the end - law school - his cheating was so brilliantly elaborate - eg sewing tiny computer screens, fed with data, into his pants (no kidding) - it took him months of fiendish planning.

    If he'd spent half the time actually reading law he'd have passed easily, in the end his final cheat failed, and he flunked

    The EU is a bit like that.

    But always remember, kids, it's a RULES BASED ORGANISATION
    Tiny computer screens in his trousers? You are having a laugh, surely?
    No, 100% true. He did some amazing stuff. Like he broke into his university and camped in a loft for several days, unseen, so he could then break into an office at night to get the exam papers two days early - very nearly got caught
  • tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anecdotal - have never seen the park as busy as it was today. Ever.

    Lockdown is breaking for sure. My dad's friend became a grandfather for the first time last month and he had his daughter and family (including her mother-in-law who has come down from Wrexham to stay with them!) over for lunch today.
    The thing I'm finding is just how many people are going into self isolation so they can meet up with family/close friends.
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    This has to be the daftest header ever foisted upon PB. Replace the Queen with the Queen?

    Clearly you cannot read.
    I'm reasonably sure I can. Do feel free to expand upon your view though.
    You said 'Replace the Queen with the Queen?'

    Clearly the poll doesn't show that, she's not even in the top two.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    OGS is showing why he relegated Cardiff.

    We started without our 4 best players. And when they came on (minus the unavailable Rashford) nothing much changed. This is a team seriously out of steam. Leicester deserved winners.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sforzando said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    Genuine question - isn't it exactly what India did the other week?
    I believe not. I think the Indian contract had clauses which allowed them to delay.

    Besides, India is vast and poor, and does not have an insane government telling its people this British vaccine is shit, oh no its good, oh no its lethal, oh wait its excellent, which is why nobody wants it, and we have 10 million unused doses

    Everything the EU and its member states do, when it comes to vaccines, just makes things worse.

    In that light, we can fully expect them to ban exports of vax to the UK and it will be a disaster for everyone
    It’s come to something when somebody can, with a straight face and (for once) a certain amount of reason on their side can say UVDL and Macron are madder than Narendra Modi.
    And madder than Trump. And Erdogan. And Putin.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sforzando said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    Genuine question - isn't it exactly what India did the other week?
    I believe not. I think the Indian contract had clauses which allowed them to delay.

    Besides, India is vast and poor, and does not have an insane government telling its people this British vaccine is shit, oh no its good, oh no its lethal, oh wait its excellent, which is why nobody wants it, and we have 10 million unused doses

    Everything the EU and its member states do, when it comes to vaccines, just makes things worse.

    In that light, we can fully expect them to ban exports of vax to the UK and it will be a disaster for everyone
    It’s come to something when somebody can, with a straight face and (for once) a certain amount of reason on their side can say UVDL and Macron are madder than Narendra Modi.
    And madder than Trump. And Erdogan. And Putin.
    You could add Duterte to that list.

    But however bad she is UvdL is not as bad as Nicholas Maduro.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    edited March 2021

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    This has to be the daftest header ever foisted upon PB. Replace the Queen with the Queen?

    Clearly you cannot read.
    I'm reasonably sure I can. Do feel free to expand upon your view though.
    You said 'Replace the Queen with the Queen?'

    Clearly the poll doesn't show that, she's not even in the top two.
    Nonetheless she did feature in the list.

    And as she was third your comment is ridiculous too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    This has to be the daftest header ever foisted upon PB. Replace the Queen with the Queen?

    Clearly you cannot read.
    I'm reasonably sure I can. Do feel free to expand upon your view though.
    You said 'Replace the Queen with the Queen?'

    Clearly the poll doesn't show that, she's not even in the top two.
    People who don’t like Charles votes for William to skip a generation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    The thing about any Pfizer export bans (and why it sort of feels unlikely, and we are talking theoreticals/hypotheticals) is that Pfizer are on track with their EU delivery schedules. Even if exports were banned, the EU would therefore presumably have no contractual right to the supplies being exported. Pfizer could i guess leave them sitting in storage somewhere?

    And given the complexities involved in Pfizer distribution, could the EU actually do anything with a significant increase in Pfizer supplies anyway?

    What they seem to be talking about is blocking export of *Pfizer* until the EU gets what it wants in terms of *AZN*.
    Are they actually talking about that - or is this UK press speculation on the hypothetical damage they can do. They also seem to be grossly overestimating the potential supply of AZ to the EU from the UK, even if they got the lot? Which of course runs into the point about a delay of 2 months in the UK being a speeding up of a week in the EU.
    The AZN plants in the EU haven't been exporting to the UK. This is publicly known, since they invented their export registration scheme as little while ago.

    1) So they could impose a ban on the the thing that isn't happening - export of AZN to the UK. Which would just hit countries like Australia.
    2) Or they could try and ban Pfizer export.

    Given the confusing messaging coming out of various bits of the EU, it is hard to say.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    When I was at the ONS I went on some team building courses, one of which was a prisoner's dilemma set up. I can't remember the details, but I was in the group that was getting screwed over by the other lot. Anyway, the set up meant we could screw them over in a retaliation and we did precisely that. Sure enough, the trainer asked us why we had felt the need to do that.

    If the EU do play silly buggers, I'd like us to rise above it. But I'd also very much be up for Boris addressing the nation and calling the EU out for what they are. If Starmer wants to use his right to reply, that would be up to him...
  • DavidL said:

    OGS is showing why he relegated Cardiff.

    We started without our 4 best players. And when they came on (minus the unavailable Rashford) nothing much changed. This is a team seriously out of steam. Leicester deserved winners.
    As one my Manchester United supporting friends put it recently, if Fernandes has a long term injury like Van Dijk then United are getting relegated.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sforzando said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    Genuine question - isn't it exactly what India did the other week?
    I believe not. I think the Indian contract had clauses which allowed them to delay.

    Besides, India is vast and poor, and does not have an insane government telling its people this British vaccine is shit, oh no its good, oh no its lethal, oh wait its excellent, which is why nobody wants it, and we have 10 million unused doses

    Everything the EU and its member states do, when it comes to vaccines, just makes things worse.

    In that light, we can fully expect them to ban exports of vax to the UK and it will be a disaster for everyone
    It’s come to something when somebody can, with a straight face and (for once) a certain amount of reason on their side can say UVDL and Macron are madder than Narendra Modi.
    And madder than Trump. And Erdogan. And Putin.
    You could add Duterte to that list.

    But however bad she is UvdL is not as bad as Nicholas Maduro.
    It occurs to me that if Putin ever did something similar to what the EU is - allegedly - contemplating, we would have no hesitation calling it an act of war. We might not go to war, because Realpolitik, but we would call it that.

    An unlawful attack which causes our economy major damage and kills Britons. What else is it?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    R
    Leon said:

    This is the kind of thing that makes me think they might do it.

    This is an apparently senior EU advisor, with 17k followers

    He thinks the EU has three bad options, and a UK ban is one of them. So it is being considered

    https://twitter.com/FHeisbourg/status/1373704172621725697?s=20

    He may be correct but he’s not a “senior EU advisor”. He a senior adviser for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    ydoethur said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    Block all exports of money from the City of London to the EU then.
    If only it was that easy.
    Block all exports of money to Russian oligarchs? That might have a sudden and surprising effect on the Frau Dr von der Leyen’s attitude...
    We could also invite Putin for a state visit. Include an invitation to visit the wonderful Salisbury Cathedral to ensure he refuses.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sforzando said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    Genuine question - isn't it exactly what India did the other week?
    I believe not. I think the Indian contract had clauses which allowed them to delay.

    Besides, India is vast and poor, and does not have an insane government telling its people this British vaccine is shit, oh no its good, oh no its lethal, oh wait its excellent, which is why nobody wants it, and we have 10 million unused doses

    Everything the EU and its member states do, when it comes to vaccines, just makes things worse.

    In that light, we can fully expect them to ban exports of vax to the UK and it will be a disaster for everyone
    It’s come to something when somebody can, with a straight face and (for once) a certain amount of reason on their side can say UVDL and Macron are madder than Narendra Modi.
    And madder than Trump. And Erdogan. And Putin.
    And Boris.

    For all the supposed European sophistication and social advancement, the continent is being run by the love child of Frau Farbissina and Barry Chuckle. And still the national leaders are managing to outdo her in incompetence and petulance.
  • tlg86 said:

    When I was at the ONS I went on some team building courses, one of which was a prisoner's dilemma set up. I can't remember the details, but I was in the group that was getting screwed over by the other lot. Anyway, the set up meant we could screw them over in a retaliation and we did precisely that. Sure enough, the trainer asked us why we had felt the need to do that.

    If the EU do play silly buggers, I'd like us to rise above it. But I'd also very much be up for Boris addressing the nation and calling the EU out for what they are. If Starmer wants to use his right to reply, that would be up to him...

    I think what we should do is ensure we send no vaccines to the EU but send them to really poor countries of the world.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848
    I do wonder why so many people love uvdl in the guardian, she owes her position mainly to coming from a wealthy aristocratic family that made their money in cotton during the slavery days. Is the reason she hasnt been pulled down and thrown in a harbour?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    If the EU spent as much time and effort sorting their vaccine rollout as they did trying to f##k up ours, they might not be in so much trouble in the first place.

    I had a friend who cheated at all his exams, from GCSE on. Stealing papers etc. By the end - law school - his cheating was so brilliantly elaborate - eg sewing tiny computer screens, fed with data, into his pants (no kidding) - it took him months of fiendish planning.

    If he'd spent half the time actually reading law he'd have passed easily, in the end his final cheat failed, and he flunked

    The EU is a bit like that.

    But always remember, kids, it's a RULES BASED ORGANISATION
    Tiny computer screens in his trousers? You are having a laugh, surely?
    No, 100% true. He did some amazing stuff. Like he broke into his university and camped in a loft for several days, unseen, so he could then break into an office at night to get the exam papers two days early - very nearly got caught
    Are you sure he wasn't a character from a thriller? If not he would certainly make a good inspiration for one.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited March 2021
    alex_ said:

    Does anyone actually know the respective figures of AZ supply to the EU to date, and the AZ supply to the UK? Not per capita or anything like that. Just raw numbers.

    UVDL's current numbers say 30 million AZ to EU in Q1.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    edited March 2021

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    If the EU spent as much time and effort sorting their vaccine rollout as they did trying to f##k up ours, they might not be in so much trouble in the first place.

    I had a friend who cheated at all his exams, from GCSE on. Stealing papers etc. By the end - law school - his cheating was so brilliantly elaborate - eg sewing tiny computer screens, fed with data, into his pants (no kidding) - it took him months of fiendish planning.

    If he'd spent half the time actually reading law he'd have passed easily, in the end his final cheat failed, and he flunked

    The EU is a bit like that.

    But always remember, kids, it's a RULES BASED ORGANISATION
    Tiny computer screens in his trousers? You are having a laugh, surely?
    No, 100% true. He did some amazing stuff. Like he broke into his university and camped in a loft for several days, unseen, so he could then break into an office at night to get the exam papers two days early - very nearly got caught
    Are you sure he wasn't a character from a thriller? If not he would certainly make a good inspiration for one.
    He's definitely real. Is now semi-retired in Worcestershire, where he smokes and drinks heavily.

    A few years ago his doctor called him and said "Derek [not his real name] if you don't stop smoking and drinking so much you will be dead within five years".... so he decided to cash in his pension, and he carried on smoking and drinking
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    OGS is showing why he relegated Cardiff.

    We started without our 4 best players. And when they came on (minus the unavailable Rashford) nothing much changed. This is a team seriously out of steam. Leicester deserved winners.
    As one my Manchester United supporting friends put it recently, if Fernandes has a long term injury like Van Dijk then United are getting relegated.
    He's found carrying the team too hard for the last couple of months. He is nothing like he was up to now. Martial surely needs to be moved on. Quite pointless. Cavani as well. Either Greenwood is our next 9 or we get someone else.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    DougSeal said:

    R

    Leon said:

    This is the kind of thing that makes me think they might do it.

    This is an apparently senior EU advisor, with 17k followers

    He thinks the EU has three bad options, and a UK ban is one of them. So it is being considered

    https://twitter.com/FHeisbourg/status/1373704172621725697?s=20

    He may be correct but he’s not a “senior EU advisor”. He a senior adviser for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London.
    Fair enough. Misread
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    If the EU spent as much time and effort sorting their vaccine rollout as they did trying to f##k up ours, they might not be in so much trouble in the first place.

    I had a friend who cheated at all his exams, from GCSE on. Stealing papers etc. By the end - law school - his cheating was so brilliantly elaborate - eg sewing tiny computer screens, fed with data, into his pants (no kidding) - it took him months of fiendish planning.

    If he'd spent half the time actually reading law he'd have passed easily, in the end his final cheat failed, and he flunked

    The EU is a bit like that.

    But always remember, kids, it's a RULES BASED ORGANISATION
    Tiny computer screens in his trousers? You are having a laugh, surely?
    No, 100% true. He did some amazing stuff. Like he broke into his university and camped in a loft for several days, unseen, so he could then break into an office at night to get the exam papers two days early - very nearly got caught
    Are you sure he wasn't a character from a thriller? If not he would certainly make a good inspiration for one.
    Gavin Maxwell did something similar - there’s quite an exciting account of it in, I think, Raven Seek Thy Brother.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited March 2021
    So are Southampton going to do a Crystal Palace and in a FA Cup semi final knock out a team who beat them 9 nil?

    (OK for Palace it was in the same season, but for Southampton it was the previous season, but it is close enough.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    I rather think it's the EU which is frotting itself into a quite absurd frenzy, here. Not I
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    CNN) The Australian government has declared a natural disaster in large swaths of New South Wales (NSW) as heavy rains batter the state and force thousands to evacuate.

    Rains have been inundating communities since Thursday, but parts of the east coast tipped into crisis on Saturday as a major dam overflowed, adding to swollen rivers and causing flash flooding.

    The NSW and federal government have signed 16 natural disaster declarations in areas spanning the central and mid-north coast, from Hunter Valley near Sydney to Coff's Harbour, said NSW Emergency Services Minister David Elliott in a news conference on Sunday.

    "This is nothing like we've seen since the 1960s," State Premier Berejiklian said. In parts of the state that have been hit harder, this is a once-a-century event; in other regions like the Hawkesbury area, it's a "one-in-50-years" event, she said.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Leon said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    I rather think it's the EU which is frotting itself into a quite absurd frenzy, here. Not I
    Maybe a growth market for you to export to?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    So are Leicester going to do a Crystal Palace and in a FA Cup semi final knock out a team who beat them 9 nil?

    (OK for Palace it was in the same season, but for Southampton it was the previous season, but it is close enough.)

    Leicester lost 9-0 to Southampton?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    If the EU spent as much time and effort sorting their vaccine rollout as they did trying to f##k up ours, they might not be in so much trouble in the first place.

    I had a friend who cheated at all his exams, from GCSE on. Stealing papers etc. By the end - law school - his cheating was so brilliantly elaborate - eg sewing tiny computer screens, fed with data, into his pants (no kidding) - it took him months of fiendish planning.

    If he'd spent half the time actually reading law he'd have passed easily, in the end his final cheat failed, and he flunked

    The EU is a bit like that.

    But always remember, kids, it's a RULES BASED ORGANISATION
    Tiny computer screens in his trousers? You are having a laugh, surely?
    No, 100% true. He did some amazing stuff. Like he broke into his university and camped in a loft for several days, unseen, so he could then break into an office at night to get the exam papers two days early - very nearly got caught
    Are you sure he wasn't a character from a thriller? If not he would certainly make a good inspiration for one.
    Gavin Maxwell did something similar - there’s quite an exciting account of it in, I think, Raven Seek Thy Brother.
    Bizarrely, the behaviour of several of my friends has often reminded me of Gavin Maxwell. True story. The insane risk taking.

    The biography by Douglas Botting is superb.

    Since reading it, I have heard further gossip from people who knew Maxwell personally. Not a nice man (unlike my friends, who are nice, just a bit mad)
  • alex_ said:

    So are Leicester going to do a Crystal Palace and in a FA Cup semi final knock out a team who beat them 9 nil?

    (OK for Palace it was in the same season, but for Southampton it was the previous season, but it is close enough.)

    Leicester lost 9-0 to Southampton?
    Oops, typo.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    edited March 2021

    Leon said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    I rather think it's the EU which is frotting itself into a quite absurd frenzy, here. Not I
    Maybe a growth market for you to export to?
    I don't believe they need any help from me, in Brussels, Berlin and Paris, to royally fuck themselves. They are doing just fine right now
  • I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
  • Pagan2 said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
    We won't.

    I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.

    Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.

    Makes perfect sense.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    Pagan2 said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
    FWIW I reckon they will step back from the brink. But it is no longer impossible

    How do we react? The pressure on Boris to block the export of lipids from Croda will be intense. I guess, sensibly, he should resist, but will he be able? The media and public will be screaming for a retaliation in kind. With some reason

    And the chaos it will cause in global supply chains? Why should American pharma companies (the source of most expected new vaccines) regard the EU as a reliable actor, if they rip up Pfizer contracts and seize doses? It's Venezuela-type shit.
  • Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    This has to be the daftest header ever foisted upon PB. Replace the Queen with the Queen?

    Marcus Rashford for me...
    Too young - and well played today by the way.

    Fully deserved from a Man Utd supporter since 1954
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Pagan2 said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
    We won't.

    I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.

    Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.

    Makes perfect sense.
    Are you saying this a conspiracy not a cock up?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    DavidL said:

    OGS is showing why he relegated Cardiff.

    We started without our 4 best players. And when they came on (minus the unavailable Rashford) nothing much changed. This is a team seriously out of steam. Leicester deserved winners.
    Ndidi and Tielemans are a great midfield pairing, and 'Nacho is on fire, feeding off Vardy. We should finish the season strongly with several players back after the international break.

    I would have loved to be in that stadium at the whistle. It is a year since Iast went to a match, and Leicester playing as well as I have seen.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848

    Pagan2 said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
    We won't.

    I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.

    Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.

    Makes perfect sense.
    You say we won't. What do you propose we do. I agree a war is not the answer but anything we do will have the remainers crying. You I believe are a remainer so what do you propose we should do?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    Is the sexual orientation question voluntary?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sforzando said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    Genuine question - isn't it exactly what India did the other week?
    I believe not. I think the Indian contract had clauses which allowed them to delay.

    Besides, India is vast and poor, and does not have an insane government telling its people this British vaccine is shit, oh no its good, oh no its lethal, oh wait its excellent, which is why nobody wants it, and we have 10 million unused doses

    Everything the EU and its member states do, when it comes to vaccines, just makes things worse.

    In that light, we can fully expect them to ban exports of vax to the UK and it will be a disaster for everyone
    It’s come to something when somebody can, with a straight face and (for once) a certain amount of reason on their side can say UVDL and Macron are madder than Narendra Modi.
    But fortunately not yet as mad as Bolsonaro
  • Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
    We won't.

    I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.

    Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.

    Makes perfect sense.
    You say we won't. What do you propose we do. I agree a war is not the answer but anything we do will have the remainers crying. You I believe are a remainer so what do you propose we should do?
    I said we won't be quiescent and accept it.

    I'm just saying it won't be a military response as Leon hopes.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Is the sexual orientation question voluntary?

    Yes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    OGS is showing why he relegated Cardiff.

    We started without our 4 best players. And when they came on (minus the unavailable Rashford) nothing much changed. This is a team seriously out of steam. Leicester deserved winners.
    Ndidi and Tielemans are a great midfield pairing, and 'Nacho is on fire, feeding off Vardy. We should finish the season strongly with several players back after the international break.

    I would have loved to be in that stadium at the whistle. It is a year since Iast went to a match, and Leicester playing as well as I have seen.
    Their midfield was excellent as was their defence. Well deserved winners, the score was actually closer than the game.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Andy_JS said:

    Is the sexual orientation question voluntary?

    Yes IIRC, but I saw no particular reason not to answer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    ydoethur said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    That would at least give us ample numbers of soldiers.
    A hit squad already skilled at remaining under cover, at least.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    Andy_JS said:

    Is the sexual orientation question voluntary?

    Does that mean face-to-face vs from behind? Or on top versus on bottom?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Andy_JS said:

    Is the sexual orientation question voluntary?

    Yes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    ydoethur said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    That would at least give us ample numbers of soldiers.
    On the upside that is an army of 10 million

    image

    On the downside we may need to check for implanted chips....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Andy_JS said:

    Is the sexual orientation question voluntary?

    Yes IIRC, but I saw no particular reason not to answer.
    I thought it was something to do with sex outside. Or is that orienteering?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
    We won't.

    I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.

    Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.

    Makes perfect sense.
    You say we won't. What do you propose we do. I agree a war is not the answer but anything we do will have the remainers crying. You I believe are a remainer so what do you propose we should do?
    I said we won't be quiescent and accept it.

    I'm just saying it won't be a military response as Leon hopes.
    So you suggest we do what?

    If for example we cut off the pfizer precursors in response......how does that play out in europe are they going to be all "hmm maybe we didn't want to do that" or are they going to be "Perfidious albion....double down" I suspect the latter
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
    We won't.

    I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.

    Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.

    Makes perfect sense.
    You say we won't. What do you propose we do. I agree a war is not the answer but anything we do will have the remainers crying. You I believe are a remainer so what do you propose we should do?
    I said we won't be quiescent and accept it.

    I'm just saying it won't be a military response as Leon hopes.
    "hopes"?!

    Don't be RIDIC

    I don't hope we GO TO WAR with the EU. For a start they'd probably win, unless we do a first strike on Paris. And the Force de Frappe. OK, its do-able. But we SHOULDN'T.

    What I'm saying is, if the EU does this crazy thing, we will be obliged by public opinion to strike back, somehow.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    TimT said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is the sexual orientation question voluntary?

    Does that mean face-to-face vs from behind? Or on top versus on bottom?
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is the sexual orientation question voluntary?

    Yes IIRC, but I saw no particular reason not to answer.
    I thought it was something to do with sex outside. Or is that orienteering?
    Oh behave you two...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    ydoethur said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    That would at least give us ample numbers of soldiers.
    Might need to equip him with Italian tanks: one forward gear and four in reverse...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
    We won't.

    I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.

    Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.

    Makes perfect sense.
    You say we won't. What do you propose we do. I agree a war is not the answer but anything we do will have the remainers crying. You I believe are a remainer so what do you propose we should do?
    I said we won't be quiescent and accept it.

    I'm just saying it won't be a military response as Leon hopes.
    So you suggest we do what?

    If for example we cut off the pfizer precursors in response......how does that play out in europe are they going to be all "hmm maybe we didn't want to do that" or are they going to be "Perfidious albion....double down" I suspect the latter
    The EU would probably like us to cut off the supply of the ingredients as they could just blame us for their failings.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    DougSeal said:

    R

    Leon said:

    This is the kind of thing that makes me think they might do it.

    This is an apparently senior EU advisor, with 17k followers

    He thinks the EU has three bad options, and a UK ban is one of them. So it is being considered

    https://twitter.com/FHeisbourg/status/1373704172621725697?s=20

    He may be correct but he’s not a “senior EU advisor”. He a senior adviser for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London.
    He used to be the Director of IISS when I was there. Ah, upon checking, he still is.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    The FT has the same story, so it is credible

    https://www.ft.com/content/254fc733-1568-4ea7-9fdf-069285c7f9c1

    However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further
  • Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I see @Leon is having his weekly "hot war with the EU" masturbate-a-thon

    Well we all know Leon will enlist in this war.
    If the eu blocked pfizer doses from being exported I have to say I dont see how we can just be quiescent and accept it
    We won't.

    I just find it amusing the hawks are up for war but aren't prepared to sign up and fight.

    Oh I've just realised, because Leon's heard Pfizer blockade and he thinks it means he might not get his viagra.

    Makes perfect sense.
    You say we won't. What do you propose we do. I agree a war is not the answer but anything we do will have the remainers crying. You I believe are a remainer so what do you propose we should do?
    I said we won't be quiescent and accept it.

    I'm just saying it won't be a military response as Leon hopes.
    So you suggest we do what?

    If for example we cut off the pfizer precursors in response......how does that play out in europe are they going to be all "hmm maybe we didn't want to do that" or are they going to be "Perfidious albion....double down" I suspect the latter
    Rise above it and look to expand our vaccine production facilities and make ourselves the number one location in Europe for pharma.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,017
    Other things that demoralise the public: rounding up all males aged 14 to 75 and then massacring them in the forest outside town.

    Be careful whose tweets you publish.

    One might add be careful who you raise to the Lords, but I expect no better of the scum Johnson.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    Leon said:

    The FT has the same story, so it is credible

    https://www.ft.com/content/254fc733-1568-4ea7-9fdf-069285c7f9c1

    However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further

    That sounds as though it is the vaccine substance, to be finished off in the Welsh plant, not the final vaccine doses.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,922
    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,922

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DougSeal said:
    Are we all going to die ?
    Absolutely. Eventually.

    --AS
    Are you sure? Based on more than 46 years of daily observations, I have yet to record a single incidence of my death. At some point - perhaps after just a few hundred more observations - we will be forced to conclude that I'm simply not going to die.
    Care for a wager?

    --AS
    Sure. You pay me £1 for every day I'm alive, and then - should I die in the future - I will pay you £1,000 in the (unlikely) event of my death.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited March 2021

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    I'm inclined to call bullshit on the numbers in this model. Unless I see the model itself.

    His number of the vaccinations already given is off by nearly 2 million for a start.

    And the daily rate it uses in practice if a "ban" happens is under 200k per day.

    First rule of reading the Guardian: if the article has numbers in it and is not fully referenced, 90% of the time there is a significant proportion of bovine excrement involved.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited March 2021
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    The FT has the same story, so it is credible

    https://www.ft.com/content/254fc733-1568-4ea7-9fdf-069285c7f9c1

    However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further

    That sounds as though it is the vaccine substance, to be finished off in the Welsh plant, not the final vaccine doses.
    Blocking vaccine ingredients really would be desperation though. Blocking doses raises the prospects of using them for themselves. So at least generates a corresponding EU gain for the action taken. But how does blocking ingredients do anything except reduce the overall supply? Are they suggesting that the shortages on the EU supply line are down to shortages of ingredients? That sounds unlikely.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    I don't think we would or should retaliate.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    The FT has the same story, so it is credible

    https://www.ft.com/content/254fc733-1568-4ea7-9fdf-069285c7f9c1

    However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further

    That sounds as though it is the vaccine substance, to be finished off in the Welsh plant, not the final vaccine doses.
    Yes, which makes more sense

    That makes it even more problematic. If the EU strikes at us by seizing a key vaccine ingredient, then of course we will, logically, do the exact same in return, unless we are incredibly noble. Are we?? The logic of war says No. Someone hits you, you hit back, just as hard, maybe in the same place

    This is Guns of August stuff
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851
    What a ridiculous thread!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    Yes, possibly. In which case we should calmly stare them down

    I despise them all, now, so they've already poisoned relations WITH ME. I hope they're happy
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DougSeal said:
    Are we all going to die ?
    Absolutely. Eventually.

    --AS
    Are you sure? Based on more than 46 years of daily observations, I have yet to record a single incidence of my death. At some point - perhaps after just a few hundred more observations - we will be forced to conclude that I'm simply not going to die.
    Care for a wager?

    --AS
    Sure. You pay me £1 for every day I'm alive, and then - should I die in the future - I will pay you £1,000 in the (unlikely) event of my death.
    What're you offering in the other side of that spread?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    I don't think we would or should retaliate.
    I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    The FT has the same story, so it is credible

    https://www.ft.com/content/254fc733-1568-4ea7-9fdf-069285c7f9c1

    However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further

    That sounds as though it is the vaccine substance, to be finished off in the Welsh plant, not the final vaccine doses.
    Yes, which makes more sense

    That makes it even more problematic. If the EU strikes at us by seizing a key vaccine ingredient, then of course we will, logically, do the exact same in return, unless we are incredibly noble. Are we?? The logic of war says No. Someone hits you, you hit back, just as hard, maybe in the same place

    This is Guns of August stuff
    Not sure we would - that would make things worse. For us (as well as everyone else) If we are expecting 30m Pfizer doses then cutting off Pfizer supply does nothing to help us, if the EU is not threatening to block Pfizer exports.

    It would be different if we were receiving no Pfizer doses, or Pfizer exports were being blocked.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    But there's absolutely no way the UK government will voluntarily give up vaccines its procured. They'd have to keep it a secret because if it ever became public knowledge...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    I don't think we would or should retaliate.
    I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
    We would definitely retaliate. Their act would cause a further drop in UK GDP of about 3-5% (rough guess) and kill maybe 5-10,000 Brits. The idea we'd just sit there and take it is fantastically naive
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,922
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They wouldn't, would they?
    Well I'm of the opinion that they won't, they really won't want to piss off pharma and the fact pharma makes more than just Covid-19 vaccines.

    But they are desperate, remember our current Home Secretary threatened Ireland's food supply in the hopes of getting a good Brexit deal, so who knows.
    According to MaxPB we arent getting vaccines from the eu anymore . Now maybe he is incorrect or maybe not. I he isnt not going to delay us at all
    We have no - as far as I'm aware - domestic Pfizer-BioNTech production capability, although we do produce the lipids used it its manufacture.

    The Moderna vaccines we're getting are made in Switzerland, but are filled and finished in Spain. In theory, Spain could block export, but if they did that, Moderna would simply change where they were getting phials filled - it's not high value work, frankly, they could move the fill to the UK with little impact on supply chains.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    The FT has the same story, so it is credible

    https://www.ft.com/content/254fc733-1568-4ea7-9fdf-069285c7f9c1

    However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further

    That sounds as though it is the vaccine substance, to be finished off in the Welsh plant, not the final vaccine doses.
    Yes, which makes more sense

    That makes it even more problematic. If the EU strikes at us by seizing a key vaccine ingredient, then of course we will, logically, do the exact same in return, unless we are incredibly noble. Are we?? The logic of war says No. Someone hits you, you hit back, just as hard, maybe in the same place

    This is Guns of August stuff
    Not sure we would - that would make things worse. For us (as well as everyone else) If we are expecting 30m Pfizer doses then cutting off Pfizer supply does nothing to help us, if the EU is not threatening to block Pfizer exports.

    It would be different if we were receiving no Pfizer doses, or Pfizer exports were being blocked.
    But it sounds as though they are threatening to ban the export of the ingredient necessary for AZN, which would significantly affect production.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,055

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    The thing about any Pfizer export bans (and why it sort of feels unlikely, and we are talking theoreticals/hypotheticals) is that Pfizer are on track with their EU delivery schedules. Even if exports were banned, the EU would therefore presumably have no contractual right to the supplies being exported. Pfizer could i guess leave them sitting in storage somewhere?

    And given the complexities involved in Pfizer distribution, could the EU actually do anything with a significant increase in Pfizer supplies anyway?

    What they seem to be talking about is blocking export of *Pfizer* until the EU gets what it wants in terms of *AZN*.
    Are they actually talking about that - or is this UK press speculation on the hypothetical damage they can do. They also seem to be grossly overestimating the potential supply of AZ to the EU from the UK, even if they got the lot? Which of course runs into the point about a delay of 2 months in the UK being a speeding up of a week in the EU.
    The AZN plants in the EU haven't been exporting to the UK. This is publicly known, since they invented their export registration scheme as little while ago.

    1) So they could impose a ban on the the thing that isn't happening - export of AZN to the UK. Which would just hit countries like Australia.
    2) Or they could try and ban Pfizer export.

    Given the confusing messaging coming out of various bits of the EU, it is hard to say.
    Suppose somehow the EU got what it seems to want and the UK handed over the AZ vaccine produced in the UK.

    What would the EU do with it?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    Yes, possibly. In which case we should calmly stare them down

    I despise them all, now, so they've already poisoned relations WITH ME. I hope they're happy
    What concessions are they proposing the UK makes? The UK aren't blocking exports. They are just holding AZ to their contract.

    And even if we relinquished the entire AZ supply to the EU (or more "equitably" - the equivalent supply of AZ that we received from the EU plants early on in January) it would make an almost insignificant dent on the EU shortfall.

    Some of the EU rhetoric seems to be obscuring the vastly different size of the EU and UK in vaccine supply. The EU has 450 million people. The UK 60m. The EU shortfall from AZ in Q1 alone is greater than the entire UK population, let alone what AZ supply to us.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    AnneJGP said:

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    The thing about any Pfizer export bans (and why it sort of feels unlikely, and we are talking theoreticals/hypotheticals) is that Pfizer are on track with their EU delivery schedules. Even if exports were banned, the EU would therefore presumably have no contractual right to the supplies being exported. Pfizer could i guess leave them sitting in storage somewhere?

    And given the complexities involved in Pfizer distribution, could the EU actually do anything with a significant increase in Pfizer supplies anyway?

    What they seem to be talking about is blocking export of *Pfizer* until the EU gets what it wants in terms of *AZN*.
    Are they actually talking about that - or is this UK press speculation on the hypothetical damage they can do. They also seem to be grossly overestimating the potential supply of AZ to the EU from the UK, even if they got the lot? Which of course runs into the point about a delay of 2 months in the UK being a speeding up of a week in the EU.
    The AZN plants in the EU haven't been exporting to the UK. This is publicly known, since they invented their export registration scheme as little while ago.

    1) So they could impose a ban on the the thing that isn't happening - export of AZN to the UK. Which would just hit countries like Australia.
    2) Or they could try and ban Pfizer export.

    Given the confusing messaging coming out of various bits of the EU, it is hard to say.
    Suppose somehow the EU got what it seems to want and the UK handed over the AZ vaccine produced in the UK.

    What would the EU do with it?
    What's the point having all those fridges if you aren't going to fill them?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    What a ridiculous thread!

    I know, Monarchy is ridiculous in this day and age!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    I don't think we would or should retaliate.
    I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
    I'd just reiterate what I said.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    I must say, I am beginning to wonder if there is something fishy going on at the Halix plant in NL, and cause for legitimate EU griping. Have AZN deliberately withheld the application for EU approval so that it can use the vaccine substance produced there to meet its UK contractual obligations?

    Something odd is going on in that whole saga, and that seems to make the most sense of the facts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    What a ridiculous thread!

    I know, Monarchy is ridiculous in this day and age!
    So is Socialism, of course.

    Which proves Monarchy=Socialism...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    Yes, possibly. In which case we should calmly stare them down

    I despise them all, now, so they've already poisoned relations WITH ME. I hope they're happy
    What concessions are they proposing the UK makes? The UK aren't blocking exports. They are just holding AZ to their contract.

    And even if we relinquished the entire AZ supply to the EU (or more "equitably" - the equivalent supply of AZ that we received from the EU plants early on in January) it would make an almost insignificant dent on the EU shortfall.
    It's pure Mafia tactics. Give us what we want, or else. They can't even dress it up as keeping EU vaccines in the EU, it's seizing a crucial ingredient so the UK vaccine drive falters.

    That is: IF the FT is correct. Given that the article seems quite confused as to what is potentially being "seized" - vaccines or ingredients - who knows.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,922
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    But there's absolutely no way the UK government will voluntarily give up vaccines its procured. They'd have to keep it a secret because if it ever became public knowledge...
    For some of the deliveries due in May and June, though, after life in the UK has returned to normal... well, we could sell them to the EU. Or we could accept lower priority on deliveries.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    So they're going for the Richard Nixon madman approach?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    RobD said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    The FT has the same story, so it is credible

    https://www.ft.com/content/254fc733-1568-4ea7-9fdf-069285c7f9c1

    However there is massive confusion in the first para, where it claims the UK is seeking tons of stored AZ vax in Netherlands, which I believe is untrue (on the basis of what Max has told us). Later on this vax turns into crucial "ingredients", not the vax itself, which muddies the water further

    That sounds as though it is the vaccine substance, to be finished off in the Welsh plant, not the final vaccine doses.
    Yes, which makes more sense

    That makes it even more problematic. If the EU strikes at us by seizing a key vaccine ingredient, then of course we will, logically, do the exact same in return, unless we are incredibly noble. Are we?? The logic of war says No. Someone hits you, you hit back, just as hard, maybe in the same place

    This is Guns of August stuff
    Not sure we would - that would make things worse. For us (as well as everyone else) If we are expecting 30m Pfizer doses then cutting off Pfizer supply does nothing to help us, if the EU is not threatening to block Pfizer exports.

    It would be different if we were receiving no Pfizer doses, or Pfizer exports were being blocked.
    But it sounds as though they are threatening to ban the export of the ingredient necessary for AZN, which would significantly affect production.
    Yes it would. But blocking Pfizer ingredients in response would just compound our shortfall. We are expecting 30m doses in the next few months. If we blocked Pfizer ingredients that figure would reduce to zero.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    With the defence review coming up I have been discussing the latest pre-announcement announcements with a friend who is a former RAF strategic planner and intelligence officer. He recommended the following link to give some insight into the thinking within the MOD at the moment.

    https://thinpinstripedline.blogspot.com/2021/03/into-grey-zone-uk-military-operations.html
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    edited March 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    If they went low, I'd be inclined to go high. Wonder if the Magnitsky provisions might come in handy; I'm sure someone could spin up an argument for denying shipment of contracted items during a pandemic as a human rights abuse.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DougSeal said:
    Are we all going to die ?
    Absolutely. Eventually.

    --AS
    Are you sure? Based on more than 46 years of daily observations, I have yet to record a single incidence of my death. At some point - perhaps after just a few hundred more observations - we will be forced to conclude that I'm simply not going to die.
    Care for a wager?

    --AS
    Sure. You pay me £1 for every day I'm alive, and then - should I die in the future - I will pay you £1,000 in the (unlikely) event of my death.
    I think if one side of the wager is per day then the other should also be.

    --AS
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    I don't think we would or should retaliate.
    I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
    The obvious option: Naval blockades of cargo ships bound for EU ports at Jutland, Gibraltar and the Channel. :D
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    If they went low, I'd be inclined to go high. Wonder if the Magnitsky provisions might come in handy; I'm sure someone could spin up an argument for denying shipment of contracted items during a pandemic as a human rights abuse.
    "The right to health is the economic, social, and cultural right to a universal minimum standard of health to which all individuals are entitled. The concept of a right to health has been enumerated in international agreements which include the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, and the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities."
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    Evening all :)

    Not sure why some are so strongly anti-Census. We've been doing this every 10 years since 1801 (maybe not 1941). The point is the information obtained is incredibly useful for planning things like schools, homes, hospitals, transport - small things like that.

    Some of the questions that infuriate most are voluntary such as religion and sexual orientation.

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

    A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

    It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

    The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/eu-export-ban-would-delay-uk-covid-vaccine-drive-by-two-months

    They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.

    It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
    We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.

    The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.

    More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.

    Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
    If they went low, I'd be inclined to go high. Wonder if the Magnitsky provisions might come in handy; I'm sure someone could spin up an argument for denying shipment of contracted items during a pandemic as a human rights abuse.
    Well there was that time last year when the French confiscated our entire order of PPE that was expected to supply the NHS comfortably. Which led directly to the disastrous scramble on PPE that followed. Because we assumed our supplies were secure and didn't develop alternative supply lines until it was too late.

    One to remember everytime the EU/EU countries try to argue that they've taken the high ground throughout the course of the pandemic.
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