We should respond by blocking in kind. We have sufficient doses for our over 50s that want it (And the first dose is by far the most important), it's annoying I'll have to wait but they'll suffer more than we will with retaliatory measures.
The problem with an escalating trade war, in the vein as described by @DavidL especially, is that we'll suffer more ourselves. There's a reason why we're not inspecting goods through Dover yet...
I'm not saying we shouldn't respond but we shouldn't shoot ourselves in the foot to make a point.
They'll have more deaths than us in the near future with a tit for tat vaccine war though.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
I don't think we would or should retaliate.
I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
The obvious option: Naval blockades of cargo ships bound for EU ports at Jutland, Gibraltar and the Channel.
All exports relevant to the production of vaccines ceased immediately. Call in favours to make sure others do the same. Withdrawal from the crappy trade deal with immediate effect. Punitive tariffs on all EU imports. Take days to examine each and every lorry or cargo container coming from the continent.
Fuck em.
Might fuck us at least as much! As we are so dependent on imports.
We just have to substitute from elsewhere. Get used to your Californian red.
Nah, it was a gift. I like my reds from Beaujolais or the Rhone, and North Italy. I am not a fan of New World reds, though New Zealand does a few good uns.
Try Argentina (Malbecs), Chile (pinots) and South Africa (pinotage if you want an entirely new experience) for reds
Pinotage is garbage. I have never had a decent one. Argentinian Malbec is not up to much either, though Chile does make some drinkable stuff.
Pinotage is marmite, people love it or hate it. For Argentinian malbecs, I'd have to disagree. Sure there is a lot of mediocre struff out there, but the good ones are really good.
The good ones are world class. No question. Anyone who argues otherwise is talking from ignorance. This is why wine makers from France, Italy, the USA (etc) have been investing heavily in Argie wine
Argentina probably makes the best value fine red wine in the world, right now.
In Argentina itself you can walk into a wine shop in a small town and get what drinks like a £50 wine for under a tenner. It's a very odd feeling. Sadly the food (steaks apart) does not match the vino.
When I am buying, I definitely favour Europe for reds, though NZ does good Pinot Noir, and New Zealand and Oz for whites. I have s soft spot for Australian Reisling, but cannot understand why anyone drinks Australian Shiraz. Ghastly stuff.
In South Africa, I stick to the beer, though better still is Windhoek from Namibia, and Malawi Gin, which is very good indeed.
Saying Australian shiraz is ghastly is like saying Tuscan reds are awful. There is intense variety and you can get everything from average, Jacobs Creeky stuff to glorious, complex wines, like this one
The problem with great Aussie shiraz is that it is now overpriced, as it is so in demand. This is an example. It is superb, but £500 a bottle???!! So if you want brilliant red wines at value, go Argentina!
Ye Gods the Loons are truly out in force tonight. You clowns have only been out of the EU for a few weeks and you are now clamoring for military intervention. What are you going to be like in six months time when the UK is facing the first wave of Brexit bankruptcies with 15% unemployment and rising?
How would you react to British troops being withdrawn from the Baltics?
Why would we do that? Our presence in Estonia relates to our membership of NATO.
Are you proposing we withdraw from NATO or that the non-EU countries secede and form an alternative defence arrangement?
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
I don't think we would or should retaliate.
I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
The obvious option: Naval blockades of cargo ships bound for EU ports at Jutland, Gibraltar and the Channel.
All exports relevant to the production of vaccines ceased immediately. Call in favours to make sure others do the same. Withdrawal from the crappy trade deal with immediate effect. Punitive tariffs on all EU imports. Take days to examine each and every lorry or cargo container coming from the continent.
Fuck em.
DavidL sides with the Loons
Always thought he was a sensible human being
The loons appear to be on the other side of the channel
They are; we should not emulate them.
It is beholden on all EU supporters here in the UK to condemn the EU in no uncertain terms
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
I don't think we would or should retaliate.
I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
The obvious option: Naval blockades of cargo ships bound for EU ports at Jutland, Gibraltar and the Channel.
All exports relevant to the production of vaccines ceased immediately. Call in favours to make sure others do the same. Withdrawal from the crappy trade deal with immediate effect. Punitive tariffs on all EU imports. Take days to examine each and every lorry or cargo container coming from the continent.
Fuck em.
Might fuck us at least as much! As we are so dependent on imports.
We just have to substitute from elsewhere. Get used to your Californian red.
Nah, it was a gift. I like my reds from Beaujolais or the Rhone, and North Italy. I am not a fan of New World reds, though New Zealand does a few good uns.
Try Argentina (Malbecs), Chile (pinots) and South Africa (pinotage if you want an entirely new experience) for reds
Pinotage is garbage. I have never had a decent one. Argentinian Malbec is not up to much either, though Chile does make some drinkable stuff.
Pinotage is marmite, people love it or hate it. For Argentinian malbecs, I'd have to disagree. Sure there is a lot of mediocre struff out there, but the good ones are really good.
The good ones are world class. No question. Anyone who argues otherwise is talking from ignorance. This is why wine makers from France, Italy, the USA (etc) have been investing heavily in Argie wine
Argentina probably makes the best value fine red wine in the world, right now.
In Argentina itself you can walk into a wine shop in a small town and get what drinks like a £50 wine for under a tenner. It's a very odd feeling. Sadly the food (steaks apart) does not match the vino.
When I am buying, I definitely favour Europe for reds, though NZ does good Pinot Noir, and New Zealand and Oz for whites. I have s soft spot for Australian Reisling, but cannot understand why anyone drinks Australian Shiraz. Ghastly stuff....
Quite simply, palates differ.
The most obvious example is that of coriander, which is a tasty herb to some, and like a mouthful of soap to others (including me). And many people simply can’t distinguish between what oenophiles call great wines, and cheap plonk. It’s not a matter of an educated palate; just genetics.
With you on the coriander. I like most wines but cannot stand most Spanish reds. My wife who worked in the wine business for many years says, based on what I describe to her, this is because I dislike the specific Tempranillo grape variety. To me it tastes of burnt jam.
We should respond by blocking in kind. We have sufficient doses for our over 50s that want it (And the first dose is by far the most important), it's annoying I'll have to wait but they'll suffer more than we will with retaliatory measures.
The problem with an escalating trade war, in the vein as described by @DavidL especially, is that we'll suffer more ourselves. There's a reason why we're not inspecting goods through Dover yet...
I'm not saying we shouldn't respond but we shouldn't shoot ourselves in the foot to make a point.
They'll have more deaths than us in the near future with a tit for tat vaccine war though.
This is absolutely not a "game" we want to play. Why should EU citizens die for EU leadership incompetence? I would hope nobody would want that.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
That, together with Moderna and J&J. If they illegally blocked all of those, then the maximum damage to us is around two months. And would benefit them by a week or so at best.
The AZN thing is theatre, and won’t do much to us - but will do some further, potentially serious damage to their reputation. For now we should play it cool and retain the high ground.
OK this looks increasingly believable, and I am more minded to believe it, but we need more proof
I am still thinking about what that EU expert at the IISS said. The EU has no good choices. It is under intense pressure from voters (domestically, see Merkel in Germany), it is entering a 3rd wave, thousands are dying, at the same time it is "exporting vaccines" even as its own poor vaccine drive falters. Meanwhile it can now see from the UK and Israel that bigtime vaccination WORKS, this is especially galling when it is Brexit Britain doing it, a country which consciously opted out of EU vax procurement
What are its choices?
1. Slap a vaccine export ban on the UK (very risky, damaging long term, but probably popular short term) 2. Buy Sputnik or Chinese jabs? Yes, but this will take too much time 3. Accept the disaster and do nothing. Keep exporting. Hugely angering for voters
So I can see why they go for 1. This is a massive moral failure and probably a strategic calamity, but it buys time with the European people
And, also, the EU has proven it makes consistently the wrong choice on vaccines, every time
Option 4: Talk to COVAX, like Canada.
But they won't - because an EU dogma is that it is God's gift to the world.
Have pity. Somewhere in southern England, right now, esteemed philosopher A C Grayling is writhing in moral agony
OK this looks increasingly believable, and I am more minded to believe it, but we need more proof
I am still thinking about what that EU expert at the IISS said. The EU has no good choices. It is under intense pressure from voters (domestically, see Merkel in Germany), it is entering a 3rd wave, thousands are dying, at the same time it is "exporting vaccines" even as its own poor vaccine drive falters. Meanwhile it can now see from the UK and Israel that bigtime vaccination WORKS, this is especially galling when it is Brexit Britain doing it, a country which consciously opted out of EU vax procurement
What are its choices?
1. Slap a vaccine export ban on the UK (very risky, damaging long term, but probably popular short term) 2. Buy Sputnik or Chinese jabs? Yes, but this will take too much time 3. Accept the disaster and do nothing. Keep exporting. Hugely angering for voters
So I can see why they go for 1. This is a massive moral failure and probably a strategic calamity, but it buys time with the European people
And, also, the EU has proven it makes consistently the wrong choice on vaccines, every time
But where is the anger from european people? All we have seen so far is masses of them not wanting to take the vaccine they have got.
We should respond by blocking in kind. We have sufficient doses for our over 50s that want it (And the first dose is by far the most important), it's annoying I'll have to wait but they'll suffer more than we will with retaliatory measures.
The problem with an escalating trade war, in the vein as described by @DavidL especially, is that we'll suffer more ourselves. There's a reason why we're not inspecting goods through Dover yet...
I'm not saying we shouldn't respond but we shouldn't shoot ourselves in the foot to make a point.
They'll have more deaths than us in the near future with a tit for tat vaccine war though.
I mean, if I thought killing a few of their oldies might save some of ours, then I'd go for it. But I'm not sure it would. I don't think the EU gives a fuck about their people.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
You seem very sure of this - there seems to be conflicting reports about the ingredients for AZ vaccines. I understand the vaccines themselves aren't being imported, but what about the ingredients?
Put it another way - if it really does have no impact then the EU will look even more ridiculous.
Imagine they announce a ban on AZ exports to the EU, but AZ makes a public statement saying it will have zero impact on their UK distribution. But in the meantime they will take the EU to court and consider whether they want to continue with their current contract given the EU breach.
I am amazed at the restraint shown by AZN to this point. Surely at some point they must launch legal action against the EU.
We should respond by blocking in kind. We have sufficient doses for our over 50s that want it (And the first dose is by far the most important), it's annoying I'll have to wait but they'll suffer more than we will with retaliatory measures.
The problem with an escalating trade war, in the vein as described by @DavidL especially, is that we'll suffer more ourselves. There's a reason why we're not inspecting goods through Dover yet...
I'm not saying we shouldn't respond but we shouldn't shoot ourselves in the foot to make a point.
They'll have more deaths than us in the near future with a tit for tat vaccine war though.
But in the end people on both sides will die. Surely that has to be unacceptable. Tit for tat is the easy, lazy answer to this and it is beholden on any grown up Government to do all they can to avoid it.
We showed very well how to be the adult in the room the first time the EU tried this idiocy. We need to do the same again.
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
I don't think we would or should retaliate.
I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
The obvious option: Naval blockades of cargo ships bound for EU ports at Jutland, Gibraltar and the Channel.
All exports relevant to the production of vaccines ceased immediately. Call in favours to make sure others do the same. Withdrawal from the crappy trade deal with immediate effect. Punitive tariffs on all EU imports. Take days to examine each and every lorry or cargo container coming from the continent.
Fuck em.
DavidL sides with the Loons
Always thought he was a sensible human being
Well thanks, I think.
I don't want this. Its crazy and self defeating and will cause unnecessary death on both sides of the channel. But we cannot fail to respond to such an insanely hostile act.
Your suggested measures will impact UK more than anyone wont they? ie Withdrawal from the crappy trade deal with immediate effect. Punitive tariffs on all EU imports. Take days to examine each and every lorry or cargo container coming from the continent.
And as for "Fuck em"
You are now 5/1 3rd Favourite to be the first poster to say Bomb the Bastards! Instead of 1000/1 outsider.
OK this looks increasingly believable, and I am more minded to believe it, but we need more proof
I am still thinking about what that EU expert at the IISS said. The EU has no good choices. It is under intense pressure from voters (domestically, see Merkel in Germany), it is entering a 3rd wave, thousands are dying, at the same time it is "exporting vaccines" even as its own poor vaccine drive falters. Meanwhile it can now see from the UK and Israel that bigtime vaccination WORKS, this is especially galling when it is Brexit Britain doing it, a country which consciously opted out of EU vax procurement
What are its choices?
1. Slap a vaccine export ban on the UK (very risky, damaging long term, but probably popular short term) 2. Buy Sputnik or Chinese jabs? Yes, but this will take too much time 3. Accept the disaster and do nothing. Keep exporting. Hugely angering for voters
So I can see why they go for 1. This is a massive moral failure and probably a strategic calamity, but it buys time with the European people
And, also, the EU has proven it makes consistently the wrong choice on vaccines, every time
But where is the anger from european people? All we have seen so far is masses of them not wanting to take the vaccine they have got.
See the recent vote in Germany, where Merkel's party crashed, historically. That's the pressure point
And remember, Macron has an election coming up, and Le Pen snaps at his heels
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
That, together with Moderna and J&J. If they illegally blocked all of those, then the maximum damage to us is around two months. And would benefit them by a week or so at best.
The AZN thing is theatre, and won’t do much to us - but will do some further, potentially serious damage to their reputation. For now we should play it cool and retain the high ground.
Yes absolutely, we shouldn't overreact to this and block Pfizer component exports it would start a chain reaction where nobody wins. Let's take the high road and let them destroy their reputation.
Ye Gods the Loons are truly out in force tonight. You clowns have only been out of the EU for a few weeks and you are now clamoring for military intervention. What are you going to be like in six months time when the UK is facing the first wave of Brexit bankruptcies with 15% unemployment and rising?
How would you react to British troops being withdrawn from the Baltics?
Why would we do that? Our presence in Estonia relates to our membership of NATO.
Are you proposing we withdraw from NATO or that the non-EU countries secede and form an alternative defence arrangement?
The latter becomes increasingly appealing. Why should British soldiers die to defend France, or Germany, if they are willing to kill British grannies, just to provide cover for their ineptitude?
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
OK this looks increasingly believable, and I am more minded to believe it, but we need more proof
I am still thinking about what that EU expert at the IISS said. The EU has no good choices. It is under intense pressure from voters (domestically, see Merkel in Germany), it is entering a 3rd wave, thousands are dying, at the same time it is "exporting vaccines" even as its own poor vaccine drive falters. Meanwhile it can now see from the UK and Israel that bigtime vaccination WORKS, this is especially galling when it is Brexit Britain doing it, a country which consciously opted out of EU vax procurement
What are its choices?
1. Slap a vaccine export ban on the UK (very risky, damaging long term, but probably popular short term) 2. Buy Sputnik or Chinese jabs? Yes, but this will take too much time 3. Accept the disaster and do nothing. Keep exporting. Hugely angering for voters
So I can see why they go for 1. This is a massive moral failure and probably a strategic calamity, but it buys time with the European people
And, also, the EU has proven it makes consistently the wrong choice on vaccines, every time
But where is the anger from european people? All we have seen so far is masses of them not wanting to take the vaccine they have got.
See the recent vote in Germany, where Merkel's party crashed, historically. That's the pressure point
And remember, Macron has an election coming up, and Le Pen snaps at his heels
The EU is morphing into something so hideously alien. Not only vaccines, the weird cosying up to China and Russia as well
Ye Gods the Loons are truly out in force tonight. You clowns have only been out of the EU for a few weeks and you are now clamoring for military intervention. What are you going to be like in six months time when the UK is facing the first wave of Brexit bankruptcies with 15% unemployment and rising?
How would you react to British troops being withdrawn from the Baltics?
Why would we do that? Our presence in Estonia relates to our membership of NATO.
Are you proposing we withdraw from NATO or that the non-EU countries secede and form an alternative defence arrangement?
The latter becomes increasingly appealing. Why should British soldiers die to defend France, or Germany, if they are willing to kill British grannies, just to provide cover for their ineptitude?
I have long said that NATO should be disbanded as an obsolete Cold War relic.
OK this looks increasingly believable, and I am more minded to believe it, but we need more proof
I am still thinking about what that EU expert at the IISS said. The EU has no good choices. It is under intense pressure from voters (domestically, see Merkel in Germany), it is entering a 3rd wave, thousands are dying, at the same time it is "exporting vaccines" even as its own poor vaccine drive falters. Meanwhile it can now see from the UK and Israel that bigtime vaccination WORKS, this is especially galling when it is Brexit Britain doing it, a country which consciously opted out of EU vax procurement
What are its choices?
1. Slap a vaccine export ban on the UK (very risky, damaging long term, but probably popular short term) 2. Buy Sputnik or Chinese jabs? Yes, but this will take too much time 3. Accept the disaster and do nothing. Keep exporting. Hugely angering for voters
So I can see why they go for 1. This is a massive moral failure and probably a strategic calamity, but it buys time with the European people
And, also, the EU has proven it makes consistently the wrong choice on vaccines, every time
Option 4: Talk to COVAX, like Canada.
But they won't - because an EU dogma is that it is God's gift to the world.
Have pity. Somewhere in southern England, right now, esteemed philosopher A C Grayling is writhing in moral agony
Has anyone ever seen Scott P and Grayling in same room?
Is it possible that AZ have been deliberately secretive about vaccines exported from Helix to try and prompt the EU to do something silly. Possibly giving the impression that the vaccines there are far greater than reality. Then the EU go overboard and ban the export, only for AZ to take them to court. Whilst revealing that actually there's only about a few hundred thousand there?
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
This is just one of the reasons why I won't believe that we're actually moving further out of this mess until it happens.
HOWEVER - based both on media reports and on what appears to be quite a lot of informed opinion on PB, I'm not too worried yet. Export bans can, apparently, only be agreed by individual member states and not imposed by the Commission or Council of Ministers. Germany and France might be both reckless and desperate enough to push the button; the likes of Ireland, the Netherlands and (crucially) Belgium are reportedly much more reluctant. They know that if they screw up the pharma companies' ability to fulfil their contracts then said companies may no longer view the EU as a safe place to invest and build capacity. Those states therefore have a big incentive not to do anything silly.
That said, if it does go that far and the member states all fall into line, then the one thing that the UK Government must not do is force companies based here to break their contractual obligations as well, by cutting off the supply of crucial products to EU production plants. That wouldn't get us what we want and would only surrender the moral and legal high ground, whilst reducing production of vaccines for everyone else.
There are alternative responses available. The most obvious is to close the UK mission to the EU in Brussels and expel their team from London. The UK could consider withdrawing the troops currently stationed in Estonia as part of a NATO mission (in crude terms, we're not dying for you lot if you set out to kill us.) It's also possible that a quick word with the Americans and with Pfizer could see UK production of vaccine precursors diverted from the Belgian to American plants, so that UK firms' contracts with Pfizer could be upheld and UK orders fulfilled from US plants.
But we're still a long way from having to rely solely on our own (limited) production resources just yet, so let's just wait and see.
I would be very surprised if they haven’t already made plans to divert the precursors to Pfizer’s US plants in return for Pfizer delivering from there to the UK
Are you some kind of Russian trolls? This is total bollocks. This site seems to have been invaded by f%ckwits with the IQ of furniture. Go away the lot of you. You are out of your tiny minds. You are even more deranged if you think the Yanks would support any of this. Grow the f%ck up or f%ck the f%ck off.
The government will have multiple contingency plans to ensure security of supply
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
Very speculative, but I think part of what might be driving EU thought on this is the UK's inability to respond proportionately (in terms of global opinion). If the EU follows through on the proposed export ban, it might kill thousands of British citizens indirectly, but it's much harder for the UK to justify a severe response to discourage further action when those deaths aren't direct (in contrast, you might consider the attack on the Twin Towers and the immediate thousands of deaths, which enabled the US to justify grossly excessive action).
If the EU does ban vaccine exports, what do we do?
If we ban the export of vaccine ingredients such as lipid - we're sinking to the level of the EU, makes us look just as bad.
If we try to pull troops out of Eastern Europe in spite of our NATO commitments - we'll be smeared as overreacting.
If we downplay the entire affair and say we'll keep exporting lipids and keep spending lives and money to defend Europe - the EU will conclude that threats are effective against the UK and they can just keep doing this every time there's a crisis.
Long term, we definitely need to start developing proper leverage against the EU, because clearly we can't trust them to not threaten us in situations like this.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
That, together with Moderna and J&J. If they illegally blocked all of those, then the maximum damage to us is around two months. And would benefit them by a week or so at best.
The AZN thing is theatre, and won’t do much to us - but will do some further, potentially serious damage to their reputation. For now we should play it cool and retain the high ground.
I think you are assuming that the model in the Guardian piece is credible.
OK this looks increasingly believable, and I am more minded to believe it, but we need more proof
I am still thinking about what that EU expert at the IISS said. The EU has no good choices. It is under intense pressure from voters (domestically, see Merkel in Germany), it is entering a 3rd wave, thousands are dying, at the same time it is "exporting vaccines" even as its own poor vaccine drive falters. Meanwhile it can now see from the UK and Israel that bigtime vaccination WORKS, this is especially galling when it is Brexit Britain doing it, a country which consciously opted out of EU vax procurement
What are its choices?
1. Slap a vaccine export ban on the UK (very risky, damaging long term, but probably popular short term) 2. Buy Sputnik or Chinese jabs? Yes, but this will take too much time 3. Accept the disaster and do nothing. Keep exporting. Hugely angering for voters
So I can see why they go for 1. This is a massive moral failure and probably a strategic calamity, but it buys time with the European people
And, also, the EU has proven it makes consistently the wrong choice on vaccines, every time
Option 4: Talk to COVAX, like Canada.
But they won't - because an EU dogma is that it is God's gift to the world.
Have pity. Somewhere in southern England, right now, esteemed philosopher A C Grayling is writhing in moral agony
No, he will be like NP exMP, blame on both sides....
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.
A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.
It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.
The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.
They would further fuck up our economy, and condemn lots of Britons to disease and death, because THEY screwed up their procurement? It would be the act of an outright enemy. Beyond anything China might do, or indeed Russia.
It is a nuclear option. How could we not retaliate? Madness
We would retaliate, because we'd have no choice. It would be close to an act of war.
The EU has to know this. And therefore, one has to think that an actual export ban is probably off the table.
More likely, they are playing a game of brinskmanship with the UK: Yeah, we're mad enough to fuck ourselves and you over, so let's see some concessions so we won't be forced to do something awful to both of us.
Which is, of course, the same strategy that it was advocated that the UK used during the Brexit negotiations.
I don't think we would or should retaliate.
I completely disagree. The question is not whether we retaliate but whether we can keep the retaliation within some sensible bounds. Not responding is not an option.
The obvious option: Naval blockades of cargo ships bound for EU ports at Jutland, Gibraltar and the Channel.
All exports relevant to the production of vaccines ceased immediately. Call in favours to make sure others do the same. Withdrawal from the crappy trade deal with immediate effect. Punitive tariffs on all EU imports. Take days to examine each and every lorry or cargo container coming from the continent.
Fuck em.
DavidL sides with the Loons
Always thought he was a sensible human being
Well thanks, I think.
I don't want this. Its crazy and self defeating and will cause unnecessary death on both sides of the channel. But we cannot fail to respond to such an insanely hostile act.
I'm not quite sure why you are proposing a series of retaliatory actions which would massively harm the UK? How do we help a shortfall of AZ vaccines, by abolishing our supply of Pfizer vaccines. And if we targeted Pfizer then we would be adding a UK-Pfizer dispute to the existing EU-AZ one. When the EU taking this sort of action will massively harm them in the long term as a place to do business.
Remember large chunks of our population are already vaccinated. Currently the health risk of a reduction in global vaccine supply is all on their side.
Keep it a dispute between the EU and massive global companies and let them reap the negative consequences in the future.
My understanding, and I am happy to be corrected, is that we had an initial entitlement to the pfizer vaccine more than half of which has been delivered. If the EU stops the other half from being delivered then we have a problem and more deaths than would otherwise be the case. The Pfizer vaccine for Europe is produced in Belgium, who our government has been speaking to in a friendly way. If we can persuade Belgium not to play that that might solve the problem. If not my understanding is that the vaccine needs lipids which are produced in the UK so we could inhibit their production in retaliation.
My further understanding is that we are not importing AZ any more but still need to import some raw ingredients which is what the EU is threatening. My understanding is that they are doing this because the AZ vaccine made in this country is being used in this country and not exported for the very good reason we contracted to buy it first. If they are trying to blackmail us into agreeing to divert vaccine that we need to the EU we do need to respond.
Belgium is probably the best hope of this being resolved in a sane way. They have not gone along with any of the AZ nonsense and have a considerable vested interest in having an internationally trusted pharma industry. The UK government has been absolutely right to be speaking to them at the highest level and need to keep this up.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
OK this looks increasingly believable, and I am more minded to believe it, but we need more proof
I am still thinking about what that EU expert at the IISS said. The EU has no good choices. It is under intense pressure from voters (domestically, see Merkel in Germany), it is entering a 3rd wave, thousands are dying, at the same time it is "exporting vaccines" even as its own poor vaccine drive falters. Meanwhile it can now see from the UK and Israel that bigtime vaccination WORKS, this is especially galling when it is Brexit Britain doing it, a country which consciously opted out of EU vax procurement
What are its choices?
1. Slap a vaccine export ban on the UK (very risky, damaging long term, but probably popular short term) 2. Buy Sputnik or Chinese jabs? Yes, but this will take too much time 3. Accept the disaster and do nothing. Keep exporting. Hugely angering for voters
So I can see why they go for 1. This is a massive moral failure and probably a strategic calamity, but it buys time with the European people
And, also, the EU has proven it makes consistently the wrong choice on vaccines, every time
Option 4: Talk to COVAX, like Canada.
But they won't - because an EU dogma is that it is God's gift to the world.
Have pity. Somewhere in southern England, right now, esteemed philosopher A C Grayling is writhing in moral agony
I think of him ranting away from his fake peacock throne.
OK this looks increasingly believable, and I am more minded to believe it, but we need more proof
I am still thinking about what that EU expert at the IISS said. The EU has no good choices. It is under intense pressure from voters (domestically, see Merkel in Germany), it is entering a 3rd wave, thousands are dying, at the same time it is "exporting vaccines" even as its own poor vaccine drive falters. Meanwhile it can now see from the UK and Israel that bigtime vaccination WORKS, this is especially galling when it is Brexit Britain doing it, a country which consciously opted out of EU vax procurement
What are its choices?
1. Slap a vaccine export ban on the UK (very risky, damaging long term, but probably popular short term) 2. Buy Sputnik or Chinese jabs? Yes, but this will take too much time 3. Accept the disaster and do nothing. Keep exporting. Hugely angering for voters
So I can see why they go for 1. This is a massive moral failure and probably a strategic calamity, but it buys time with the European people
And, also, the EU has proven it makes consistently the wrong choice on vaccines, every time
Option 4: Talk to COVAX, like Canada.
But they won't - because an EU dogma is that it is God's gift to the world.
Have pity. Somewhere in southern England, right now, esteemed philosopher A C Grayling is writhing in moral agony
I think of him ranting away from his fake peacock throne.
Very speculative, but I think part of what might be driving EU thought on this is the UK's inability to respond proportionately (in terms of global opinion). If the EU follows through on the proposed export ban, it might kill thousands of British citizens indirectly, but it's much harder for the UK to justify a severe response to discourage further action when those deaths aren't direct (in contrast, you might consider the attack on the Twin Towers and the immediate thousands of deaths, which enabled the US to justify grossly excessive action).
If the EU does ban vaccine exports, what do we do?
If we ban the export of vaccine ingredients such as lipid - we're sinking to the level of the EU, makes us look just as bad.
If we try to pull troops out of Eastern Europe in spite of our NATO commitments - we'll be smeared as overreacting.
If we downplay the entire affair and say we'll keep exporting lipids and keep spending lives and money to defend Europe - the EU will conclude that threats are effective against the UK and they can just keep doing this every time there's a crisis.
Long term, we definitely need to start developing proper leverage against the EU, because clearly we can't trust them to not threaten us in situations like this.
I don't think we should block any exports, but one thing I would do is have the PM write a letter to the European Commission that Britain will never forget what they have done. We can then respond at the time and place of our choosing.
With Allies like the EU, who needs enemies. I hope our diplomats are very clearly explaining to the former Soviet nations that the further they drift from us, the more interested we will be in withdrawing our tripwires.
Very speculative, but I think part of what might be driving EU thought on this is the UK's inability to respond proportionately (in terms of global opinion). If the EU follows through on the proposed export ban, it might kill thousands of British citizens indirectly, but it's much harder for the UK to justify a severe response to discourage further action when those deaths aren't direct (in contrast, you might consider the attack on the Twin Towers and the immediate thousands of deaths, which enabled the US to justify grossly excessive action).
If the EU does ban vaccine exports, what do we do?
If we ban the export of vaccine ingredients such as lipid - we're sinking to the level of the EU, makes us look just as bad.
If we try to pull troops out of Eastern Europe in spite of our NATO commitments - we'll be smeared as overreacting.
If we downplay the entire affair and say we'll keep exporting lipids and keep spending lives and money to defend Europe - the EU will conclude that threats are effective against the UK and they can just keep doing this every time there's a crisis.
Long term, we definitely need to start developing proper leverage against the EU, because clearly we can't trust them to not threaten us in situations like this.
I don't think we should block any exports, but one thing I would do is have the PM write a letter to the European Commission that Britain will never forget what they have done. We can then respond at the time and place of our choosing.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
Yes but presumably they know therefore that block az export is pure show on their part and you would expect that people in europe might start going "hang on if we blocked all those exports why aren't we getting more vaccine?"
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
Doesn't @CarlottaVance mean that they send us materials used at the Welsh manufacturing plant to produce the vaccine here?
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
That, together with Moderna and J&J. If they illegally blocked all of those, then the maximum damage to us is around two months. And would benefit them by a week or so at best.
The AZN thing is theatre, and won’t do much to us - but will do some further, potentially serious damage to their reputation. For now we should play it cool and retain the high ground.
Yes absolutely, we shouldn't overreact to this and block Pfizer component exports it would start a chain reaction where nobody wins. Let's take the high road and let them destroy their reputation.
You're probably right. But the UK government faces public, voter pressure just as much as Merkel and Macron.
The Mail will be screaming for retaliation in kind. It will become quite hard to resist if it turns out this is true, they do it, AND it really impacts our vaccine drive. Indeed I think it will be impossible to resist
This is, it it happens, such a tragic mistake by the EU. Miserably poor politics. Putin will be overjoyed. Let's hope that they pull back
Meanwhile spare a thought for Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP's campaign to get Scotland back in the EU "coz they love us"
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
That, together with Moderna and J&J. If they illegally blocked all of those, then the maximum damage to us is around two months. And would benefit them by a week or so at best.
The AZN thing is theatre, and won’t do much to us - but will do some further, potentially serious damage to their reputation. For now we should play it cool and retain the high ground.
Yes absolutely, we shouldn't overreact to this and block Pfizer component exports it would start a chain reaction where nobody wins. Let's take the high road and let them destroy their reputation.
You're probably right. But the UK government faces public, voter pressure just as much as Merkel and Macron.
The Mail will be screaming for retaliation in kind. It will become quite hard to resist if it turns out this is true, they do it, AND it really impacts our vaccine drive. Indeed I think it will be impossible to resist
This is, it it happens, such a tragic mistake by the EU. Miserably poor politics. Putin will be overjoyed. Let's hope that they pull back
Meanwhile spare a thought for Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP's campaign to get Scotland back in the EU "coz they love us"
Even without the mail I don't see how we don't respond if they ban more than AZ. If a bully punches you and you accept it without retaliation they are just going to punch again another time
I think you may misunderstand me, I'm not saying do nothing. I'm saying make clear that there will be a price to pay, but we will choose when, where, and how that price is paid in order to suit us, which stopping exports would not do.
Very speculative, but I think part of what might be driving EU thought on this is the UK's inability to respond proportionately (in terms of global opinion). If the EU follows through on the proposed export ban, it might kill thousands of British citizens indirectly, but it's much harder for the UK to justify a severe response to discourage further action when those deaths aren't direct (in contrast, you might consider the attack on the Twin Towers and the immediate thousands of deaths, which enabled the US to justify grossly excessive action).
If the EU does ban vaccine exports, what do we do?
If we ban the export of vaccine ingredients such as lipid - we're sinking to the level of the EU, makes us look just as bad.
If we try to pull troops out of Eastern Europe in spite of our NATO commitments - we'll be smeared as overreacting.
If we downplay the entire affair and say we'll keep exporting lipids and keep spending lives and money to defend Europe - the EU will conclude that threats are effective against the UK and they can just keep doing this every time there's a crisis.
Long term, we definitely need to start developing proper leverage against the EU, because clearly we can't trust them to not threaten us in situations like this.
I don't think we should block any exports, but one thing I would do is have the PM write a letter to the European Commission that Britain will never forget what they have done. We can then respond at the time and place of our choosing.
That seems like the most rational response, but sadly I'm not sure it's one the PM will choose.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
That, together with Moderna and J&J. If they illegally blocked all of those, then the maximum damage to us is around two months. And would benefit them by a week or so at best.
The AZN thing is theatre, and won’t do much to us - but will do some further, potentially serious damage to their reputation. For now we should play it cool and retain the high ground.
Yes absolutely, we shouldn't overreact to this and block Pfizer component exports it would start a chain reaction where nobody wins. Let's take the high road and let them destroy their reputation.
You're probably right. But the UK government faces public, voter pressure just as much as Merkel and Macron.
The Mail will be screaming for retaliation in kind. It will become quite hard to resist if it turns out this is true, they do it, AND it really impacts our vaccine drive. Indeed I think it will be impossible to resist
This is, it it happens, such a tragic mistake by the EU. Miserably poor politics. Putin will be overjoyed. Let's hope that they pull back
Meanwhile spare a thought for Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP's campaign to get Scotland back in the EU "coz they love us"
With a Euro € crisis likely within months as well. Which currency will you be using Nicola?
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There's lots of things that just don't add up about this story, if what you say is true. The EU will look utterly ridiculous if they make a big thing of banning AZ exports to the UK, and AZ respond by saying that it will have zero impact on their supply to the UK. They will have made a massive song and dance, risked legal action from AZ (and potentially their own supply) and not even gained a few additional vaccines out of it.
I don't buy the "political theatre" argument - if it just makes the EU look stupid.
The only outside possibility is that the EU are completely mistaken about production at the Helix plant and genuinely, but mistakenly, think there is a big vaccine gain from them by appropriating whatever there is there.
Ye Gods the Loons are truly out in force tonight. You clowns have only been out of the EU for a few weeks and you are now clamoring for military intervention. What are you going to be like in six months time when the UK is facing the first wave of Brexit bankruptcies with 15% unemployment and rising?
How would you react to British troops being withdrawn from the Baltics?
Why would we do that? Our presence in Estonia relates to our membership of NATO.
Are you proposing we withdraw from NATO or that the non-EU countries secede and form an alternative defence arrangement?
A number of people here have suggested it (I think it’s a daft idea). But @Cicero lives in Estonia I believe do thought he would have a relevant perspective
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
It might be that AZ have been stockpiling some doses at the Halix site which were meant to come to the UK, but they haven't tried to actually export them since the EU got all uppity about things.
As we are looking like having a slow down in April, perhaps the government has now asked for them to be exported.
I expect the site was part of the original UK contract but AZ have been quite rightly quiet about this as is not really anyone else's business.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I put both British and English too.
Nope I put just English. The question does not ask about legality it asks about your own perception.
With Allies like the EU, who needs enemies. I hope our diplomats are very clearly explaining to the former Soviet nations that the further they drift from us, the more interested we will be in withdrawing our tripwires.
I suspect our diplomats have rarely worked the phones as hard as they are doing this weekend.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
You seem very sure of this - there seems to be conflicting reports about the ingredients for AZ vaccines. I understand the vaccines themselves aren't being imported, but what about the ingredients?
Put it another way - if it really does have no impact then the EU will look even more ridiculous.
Imagine they announce a ban on AZ exports to the EU, but AZ makes a public statement saying it will have zero impact on their UK distribution. But in the meantime they will take the EU to court and consider whether they want to continue with their current contract given the EU breach.
I am amazed at the restraint shown by AZN to this point. Surely at some point they must launch legal action against the EU.
Rule 1 in the Pharma industry is never sue your regulator / payor
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I put both British and English too.
Nope I put just English. The question does not ask about legality it asks about your own perception.
Are you resigned to Scotland becoming independent?
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There's lots of things that just don't add up about this story, if what you say is true. The EU will look utterly ridiculous if they make a big thing of banning AZ exports to the UK, and AZ respond by saying that it will have zero impact on their supply to the UK. They will have made a massive song and dance, risked legal action from AZ (and potentially their own supply) and not even gained a few additional vaccines out of it.
I don't buy the "political theatre" argument - if it just makes the EU look stupid.
The only outside possibility is that the EU are completely mistaken about production at the Helix plant and genuinely, but mistakenly, think there is a big vaccine gain from them by appropriating whatever there is there.
You obviously missed the whole we are publishing this contract and it will show AZN are breaking it...only to show the EU didn't know what they agreed.....or the trashing of the AZN vaccine, then find people don't want it and they are now having a 3rd wave...
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
Yes but presumably they know therefore that block az export is pure show on their part and you would expect that people in europe might start going "hang on if we blocked all those exports why aren't we getting more vaccine?"
The AZN ban makes most sense if there is a large stockpile of vaccine substance at Halix which, if the plant is approved next week, will be available to be filled in Italy towards the EU contract.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
Fear not, no one in the SNP gives a flying one about the collective decision of the JS household. You might just as well have been honest.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
You seem very sure of this - there seems to be conflicting reports about the ingredients for AZ vaccines. I understand the vaccines themselves aren't being imported, but what about the ingredients?
Put it another way - if it really does have no impact then the EU will look even more ridiculous.
Imagine they announce a ban on AZ exports to the EU, but AZ makes a public statement saying it will have zero impact on their UK distribution. But in the meantime they will take the EU to court and consider whether they want to continue with their current contract given the EU breach.
I am amazed at the restraint shown by AZN to this point. Surely at some point they must launch legal action against the EU.
Rule 1 in the Pharma industry is never sue your regulator / payor
I thought rule 1 was make sure your meds don't kill anyone or cause major health issues.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I put both British and English too.
Nope I put just English. The question does not ask about legality it asks about your own perception.
Are you resigned to Scotland becoming independent?
It would have significant economic costs, but I think a UK government negotiating with suitable force against the people choosing to leave has it in their power to make sure they bear all those costs - there's plenty of financial services sitting in Scotland which would have to move South very quickly. If the Scots really want to try being 20% poorer, I don't see why we should stop them.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I put both British and English too.
Nope I put just English. The question does not ask about legality it asks about your own perception.
Are you resigned to Scotland becoming independent?
It would have significant economic costs, but I think a UK government negotiating with suitable force against the people choosing to leave has it in their power to make sure they bear all those costs - there's plenty of financial services sitting in Scotland which would have to move South very quickly. If the Scots really want to try being 20% poorer, I don't see why we should stop them.
I'd agree with that, it's their choice. Same decision Ireland made in 1921/2
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There is a stockpile of precursor sitting at Halix. AZ wants to send to the UK. The EU is saying no
E.g., if the Hartlepool by-election takes place against a febrile background of "the EU nabbed our jabs", then Labour's remainer candidate is going to lose.
I think you may misunderstand me, I'm not saying do nothing. I'm saying make clear that there will be a price to pay, but we will choose when, where, and how that price is paid in order to suit us, which stopping exports would not do.
Fair enough - I did indeed not understand you clearly
Well if that's what the Telegraph is reporting, then it is promising for those of us who think the UK should play the long game and not escalate this precipitously.
The FT article makes it sound like the UK's nervousnous relates to Pfizer and other non-Az vaccines which is good if the EU are obsessed with the AZ issue.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
You seem very sure of this - there seems to be conflicting reports about the ingredients for AZ vaccines. I understand the vaccines themselves aren't being imported, but what about the ingredients?
Put it another way - if it really does have no impact then the EU will look even more ridiculous.
Imagine they announce a ban on AZ exports to the EU, but AZ makes a public statement saying it will have zero impact on their UK distribution. But in the meantime they will take the EU to court and consider whether they want to continue with their current contract given the EU breach.
I am amazed at the restraint shown by AZN to this point. Surely at some point they must launch legal action against the EU.
Rule 1 in the Pharma industry is never sue your regulator / payor
I thought rule 1 was make sure your meds don't kill anyone or cause major health issues.
E.g., if the Hartlepool by-election takes place against a febrile background of "the EU nabbed our jabs", then Labour's remainer candidate is going to lose.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There is a stockpile of precursor sitting at Halix. AZ wants to send to the UK. The EU is saying no
We have you saying one thing and MaxPB saying another perhaps put your heads together and work out what the situation is?
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
You seem very sure of this - there seems to be conflicting reports about the ingredients for AZ vaccines. I understand the vaccines themselves aren't being imported, but what about the ingredients?
Put it another way - if it really does have no impact then the EU will look even more ridiculous.
Imagine they announce a ban on AZ exports to the EU, but AZ makes a public statement saying it will have zero impact on their UK distribution. But in the meantime they will take the EU to court and consider whether they want to continue with their current contract given the EU breach.
I am amazed at the restraint shown by AZN to this point. Surely at some point they must launch legal action against the EU.
Rule 1 in the Pharma industry is never sue your regulator / payor
I thought rule 1 was make sure your meds don't kill anyone or cause major health issues.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I put both British and English too.
Nope I put just English. The question does not ask about legality it asks about your own perception.
Are you resigned to Scotland becoming independent?
Resigned? I campaigned for it last time as I was working in Aberdeen at the time. I find it utterly baffling that anyone could support Brexit and not support giving the Scots the same opportunity. I would like to see England not only allowing the vote but doing everything possible to make it a success so we have two friendly, successful nations.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
Yes but presumably they know therefore that block az export is pure show on their part and you would expect that people in europe might start going "hang on if we blocked all those exports why aren't we getting more vaccine?"
The AZN ban makes most sense if there is a large stockpile of vaccine substance at Halix which, if the plant is approved next week, will be available to be filled in Italy towards the EU contract.
AZ hasn’t applied for EU approval for Halix yet... apparently their dog ate the application
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
You seem very sure of this - there seems to be conflicting reports about the ingredients for AZ vaccines. I understand the vaccines themselves aren't being imported, but what about the ingredients?
Put it another way - if it really does have no impact then the EU will look even more ridiculous.
Imagine they announce a ban on AZ exports to the EU, but AZ makes a public statement saying it will have zero impact on their UK distribution. But in the meantime they will take the EU to court and consider whether they want to continue with their current contract given the EU breach.
I am amazed at the restraint shown by AZN to this point. Surely at some point they must launch legal action against the EU.
Rule 1 in the Pharma industry is never sue your regulator / payor
I thought rule 1 was make sure your meds don't kill anyone or cause major health issues.
I thought it was make sure you have a watertight denial that your meds killed anyone or caused major health issues.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
Yes but presumably they know therefore that block az export is pure show on their part and you would expect that people in europe might start going "hang on if we blocked all those exports why aren't we getting more vaccine?"
The AZN ban makes most sense if there is a large stockpile of vaccine substance at Halix which, if the plant is approved next week, will be available to be filled in Italy towards the EU contract.
AZ hasn’t applied for EU approval for Halix yet... apparently their dog ate the application
Report above said approval is set for March 25th.
Who knows, maybe all this is some high level co-ordination that the EU have cooked up with AZ (and the UK Govt?!). Do some sabre rattling and "appropriate" a load of vaccine substance allegedly destined for the UK. Makes it look like the EU have had a triumph from playing hardball, and meanwhile it doesn't effect supplies to the UK at all. Because actually the substance was never intended for the UK in the first place.
Very speculative, but I think part of what might be driving EU thought on this is the UK's inability to respond proportionately (in terms of global opinion). If the EU follows through on the proposed export ban, it might kill thousands of British citizens indirectly, but it's much harder for the UK to justify a severe response to discourage further action when those deaths aren't direct (in contrast, you might consider the attack on the Twin Towers and the immediate thousands of deaths, which enabled the US to justify grossly excessive action).
If the EU does ban vaccine exports, what do we do?
If we ban the export of vaccine ingredients such as lipid - we're sinking to the level of the EU, makes us look just as bad.
If we try to pull troops out of Eastern Europe in spite of our NATO commitments - we'll be smeared as overreacting.
If we downplay the entire affair and say we'll keep exporting lipids and keep spending lives and money to defend Europe - the EU will conclude that threats are effective against the UK and they can just keep doing this every time there's a crisis.
Long term, we definitely need to start developing proper leverage against the EU, because clearly we can't trust them to not threaten us in situations like this.
I don't think we should block any exports, but one thing I would do is have the PM write a letter to the European Commission that Britain will never forget what they have done. We can then respond at the time and place of our choosing.
That seems like the most rational response, but sadly I'm not sure it's one the PM will choose.
I'm sorry, but as British pensioners start dropping dead at bus-stops because the smelly Krauts and Frogs have stolen our jabs, I don't think the UK public will be content with the Prime Minister just "writing a stiff letter"
We are a warrior nation. Insular, pragmatic, sometimes silly - but also quite punchy. Slow to anger, but a bad enemy when riled. This will rile EVERYONE
E.g., if the Hartlepool by-election takes place against a febrile background of "the EU nabbed our jabs", then Labour's remainer candidate is going to lose.
Of course, he could he argue that had we remained the EU would be in no position to issue trade blocks on us.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I put both British and English too.
Nope I put just English. The question does not ask about legality it asks about your own perception.
Are you resigned to Scotland becoming independent?
Resigned? I campaigned for it last time as I was working in Aberdeen at the time. I find it utterly baffling that anyone could support Brexit and not support giving the Scots the same opportunity. I would like to see England not only allowing the vote but doing everything possible to make it a success so we have two friendly, successful nations.
I agree anyone who supported Brexit logically should support the Scots having the same opportunity, but do not agree that this automatically translates into supporting Scottish independence. I, for one, believe the Scots should be the ones to set the timescale for their referenda on independence, but would hope that they would chose to remain in the UK.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
Fear not, no one in the SNP gives a flying one about the collective decision of the JS household. You might just as well have been honest.
He didn't say he wasn't honest. Whether you like it or not, many of us were brought up British, with English a long way into the background. You don't seem to be able to assimilate this fact - this must all be a veneer to disguise our red-fanged English nationalism. It's really quite odd.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There is a stockpile of precursor sitting at Halix. AZ wants to send to the UK. The EU is saying no
We have you saying one thing and MaxPB saying another perhaps put your heads together and work out what the situation is?
Max is saying there have been no vaccines exported which is true. There is a stockpile of precursor which is what this fight is about
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There's lots of things that just don't add up about this story, if what you say is true. The EU will look utterly ridiculous if they make a big thing of banning AZ exports to the UK, and AZ respond by saying that it will have zero impact on their supply to the UK. They will have made a massive song and dance, risked legal action from AZ (and potentially their own supply) and not even gained a few additional vaccines out of it.
I don't buy the "political theatre" argument - if it just makes the EU look stupid.
The only outside possibility is that the EU are completely mistaken about production at the Helix plant and genuinely, but mistakenly, think there is a big vaccine gain from them by appropriating whatever there is there.
You obviously missed the whole we are publishing this contract and it will show AZN are breaking it...only to show the EU didn't know what they agreed.....or the trashing of the AZN vaccine, then find people don't want it and they are now having a 3rd wave...
One thing that has not been mentioned on here but probably is playing a major part in all this is the personality / reputation of Ursula von der Leyen. She is notorious for very happily chucking people under the bus whenever there is a difficult situation. So it shouldn't come as a surprise that she is stirring up this row but it also suggests she won't back down until she has some sort of (symbolic) victory. The slight problem she faces, though, is that, unlike Germany, she doesn't have too many friends in the European capitals.
One other thing as well re the faltering vaccine rollout. As we have seen today from the comments of Ben Wallace, it is looking increasingly unlikely that British tourists will be allowed to go to Europe this summer. That is going to be a body blow for the likes of Spain, Portugal and Italy, as well as Greece (depending what happens).
E.g., if the Hartlepool by-election takes place against a febrile background of "the EU nabbed our jabs", then Labour's remainer candidate is going to lose.
Of course, he could he argue that had we remained the EU would be in no position to issue trade blocks on us.
No, the vaccines would just be redistributed, in the name of unity.
Well if that's what the Telegraph is reporting, then it is promising for those of us who think the UK should play the long game and not escalate this precipitously.
The FT article makes it sound like the UK's nervousnous relates to Pfizer and other non-Az vaccines which is good if the EU are obsessed with the AZ issue.
It would be very hard for the EU to go after the Pfizer jabs, as that is an American company. Uncle Joe would not be happy.
If the AZ move is pure gesture (should it happen) it looks like the EU might secure the worst case scenario (again) - maximum reputational damage to the EU, for no obvious gain whatsoever.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
There is a stockpile of precursor sitting at Halix. AZ wants to send to the UK. The EU is saying no
We have you saying one thing and MaxPB saying another perhaps put your heads together and work out what the situation is?
Not sure they are actually saying different things. Max is saying that Halix has not sent anything to the UK since January and that the UK supply is not dependent on Halix. I do not think I have seen him say that there are no stockpiles at Halix, nor have I seen him address the question of whether the UK has asked for access to that stockpile or not.
E.g., if the Hartlepool by-election takes place against a febrile background of "the EU nabbed our jabs", then Labour's remainer candidate is going to lose.
Of course, he could he argue that had we remained the EU would be in no position to issue trade blocks on us.
I am not sure I would want to be the one making that argument to unvaccinated forty-somethings in Leaver Central in Hartlepool Maybe we can send Meeks to do it?
Very speculative, but I think part of what might be driving EU thought on this is the UK's inability to respond proportionately (in terms of global opinion). If the EU follows through on the proposed export ban, it might kill thousands of British citizens indirectly, but it's much harder for the UK to justify a severe response to discourage further action when those deaths aren't direct (in contrast, you might consider the attack on the Twin Towers and the immediate thousands of deaths, which enabled the US to justify grossly excessive action).
If the EU does ban vaccine exports, what do we do?
If we ban the export of vaccine ingredients such as lipid - we're sinking to the level of the EU, makes us look just as bad.
If we try to pull troops out of Eastern Europe in spite of our NATO commitments - we'll be smeared as overreacting.
If we downplay the entire affair and say we'll keep exporting lipids and keep spending lives and money to defend Europe - the EU will conclude that threats are effective against the UK and they can just keep doing this every time there's a crisis.
Long term, we definitely need to start developing proper leverage against the EU, because clearly we can't trust them to not threaten us in situations like this.
I don't think we should block any exports, but one thing I would do is have the PM write a letter to the European Commission that Britain will never forget what they have done. We can then respond at the time and place of our choosing.
That seems like the most rational response, but sadly I'm not sure it's one the PM will choose.
I'm sorry, but as British pensioners start dropping dead at bus-stops because the smelly Krauts and Frogs have stolen our jabs, I don't think the UK public will be content with the Prime Minister just "writing a stiff letter"
We are a warrior nation. Insular, pragmatic, sometimes silly - but also quite punchy. Slow to anger, but a bad enemy when riled. This will rile EVERYONE
E.g., if the Hartlepool by-election takes place against a febrile background of "the EU nabbed our jabs", then Labour's remainer candidate is going to lose.
Of course, he could he argue that had we remained the EU would be in no position to issue trade blocks on us.
And would be following the EU's vaccine programme.
Everyone in my household ticked the British and English boxes. Choosing just English is the sort of silliness that encourages the SNP and Plaid in my view.
I put both British and English too.
Nope I put just English. The question does not ask about legality it asks about your own perception.
Are you resigned to Scotland becoming independent?
Resigned? I campaigned for it last time as I was working in Aberdeen at the time. I find it utterly baffling that anyone could support Brexit and not support giving the Scots the same opportunity. I would like to see England not only allowing the vote but doing everything possible to make it a success so we have two friendly, successful nations.
On the other hand you might have heard this old saying... "once bitten, twice shy".
A tight Sindy yes vote could make Brexit look like a picnic.
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
You seem very sure of this - there seems to be conflicting reports about the ingredients for AZ vaccines. I understand the vaccines themselves aren't being imported, but what about the ingredients?
Put it another way - if it really does have no impact then the EU will look even more ridiculous.
Imagine they announce a ban on AZ exports to the EU, but AZ makes a public statement saying it will have zero impact on their UK distribution. But in the meantime they will take the EU to court and consider whether they want to continue with their current contract given the EU breach.
I am amazed at the restraint shown by AZN to this point. Surely at some point they must launch legal action against the EU.
Rule 1 in the Pharma industry is never sue your regulator / payor
I thought rule 1 was make sure your meds don't kill anyone or cause major health issues.
Oh! You’re so sweet sometimes
Well, arguably not causing a health crisis should be rule 1, out of self interest - the Sacklers say high!
I still don't think this makes a huge difference. It's all for show because the UK supply chain for AZ is almost all domestic, I'm not sure any of it relies on EU imports.
It's also interesting to note that Pfizer hasn't been blocked which is really what could hurt us.
Reuters reports that we get supplies of AZ from the Netherlands.
We did at the beginning, I think we got around 10m doses in January, since then we haven't. It's a matter of record within the EU's own export recording mechanism. No AZ vaccine has been exported to the UK since that has been in operation and our domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn't rely on them.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
Yes but presumably they know therefore that block az export is pure show on their part and you would expect that people in europe might start going "hang on if we blocked all those exports why aren't we getting more vaccine?"
The AZN ban makes most sense if there is a large stockpile of vaccine substance at Halix which, if the plant is approved next week, will be available to be filled in Italy towards the EU contract.
AZ hasn’t applied for EU approval for Halix yet... apparently their dog ate the application
Report above said approval is set for March 25th.
Who knows, maybe all this is some high level co-ordination that the EU have cooked up with AZ (and the UK Govt?!). Do some sabre rattling and "appropriate" a load of vaccine substance allegedly destined for the UK. Makes it look like the EU have had a triumph from playing hardball, and meanwhile it doesn't effect supplies to the UK at all. Because actually the substance was never intended for the UK in the first place.
It's a dangerous game though if so.
There was an article in RTE based on an analysis which assumed March 25 approval.
Comments
https://www.bbr.com/products-20158125875-2015-henschke-hill-of-grace-shiraz-eden-valley-australia
The problem with great Aussie shiraz is that it is now overpriced, as it is so in demand. This is an example. It is superb, but £500 a bottle???!! So if you want brilliant red wines at value, go Argentina!
Clearly failing and are looking for a way to divert attention
Are you proposing we withdraw from NATO or that the non-EU countries secede and form an alternative defence arrangement?
If they illegally blocked all of those, then the maximum damage to us is around two months. And would benefit them by a week or so at best.
The AZN thing is theatre, and won’t do much to us - but will do some further, potentially serious damage to their reputation. For now we should play it cool and retain the high ground.
https://twitter.com/pritipatel/status/1373744012302151685
Though I wonder what The Home Secretary has said to Avon and Somerset Police.
We showed very well how to be the adult in the room the first time the EU tried this idiocy. We need to do the same again.
It would be a hostile act. From an organisation that is so terribly insecure.
And as for "Fuck em"
You are now 5/1 3rd Favourite to be the first poster to say Bomb the Bastards! Instead of 1000/1 outsider.
Oh shit that markets just settled!!
And remember, Macron has an election coming up, and Le Pen snaps at his heels
Conspiracy stuff...
If the EU does ban vaccine exports, what do we do?
If we ban the export of vaccine ingredients such as lipid - we're sinking to the level of the EU, makes us look just as bad.
If we try to pull troops out of Eastern Europe in spite of our NATO commitments - we'll be smeared as overreacting.
If we downplay the entire affair and say we'll keep exporting lipids and keep spending lives and money to defend Europe - the EU will conclude that threats are effective against the UK and they can just keep doing this every time there's a crisis.
Long term, we definitely need to start developing proper leverage against the EU, because clearly we can't trust them to not threaten us in situations like this.
I doubt that.
My further understanding is that we are not importing AZ any more but still need to import some raw ingredients which is what the EU is threatening. My understanding is that they are doing this because the AZ vaccine made in this country is being used in this country and not exported for the very good reason we contracted to buy it first. If they are trying to blackmail us into agreeing to divert vaccine that we need to the EU we do need to respond.
Belgium is probably the best hope of this being resolved in a sane way. They have not gone along with any of the AZ nonsense and have a considerable vested interest in having an internationally trusted pharma industry. The UK government has been absolutely right to be speaking to them at the highest level and need to keep this up.
This is all political theatre and we would do well to publicly lament their actions but take no retaliation unless they block Pfizer or Moderna.
The Mail will be screaming for retaliation in kind. It will become quite hard to resist if it turns out this is true, they do it, AND it really impacts our vaccine drive. Indeed I think it will be impossible to resist
This is, it it happens, such a tragic mistake by the EU. Miserably poor politics. Putin will be overjoyed. Let's hope that they pull back
Meanwhile spare a thought for Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP's campaign to get Scotland back in the EU "coz they love us"
If a bully punches you and you accept it without retaliation they are just going to punch again another time
I don't buy the "political theatre" argument - if it just makes the EU look stupid.
The only outside possibility is that the EU are completely mistaken about production at the Helix plant and genuinely, but mistakenly, think there is a big vaccine gain from them by appropriating whatever there is there.
As we are looking like having a slow down in April, perhaps the government has now asked for them to be exported.
I expect the site was part of the original UK contract but AZ have been quite rightly quiet about this as is not really anyone else's business.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1373741605417586697
This surely has betting implications for May.
E.g., if the Hartlepool by-election takes place against a febrile background of "the EU nabbed our jabs", then Labour's remainer candidate is going to lose.
The FT article makes it sound like the UK's nervousnous relates to Pfizer and other non-Az vaccines which is good if the EU are obsessed with the AZ issue.
Who knows, maybe all this is some high level co-ordination that the EU have cooked up with AZ (and the UK Govt?!). Do some sabre rattling and "appropriate" a load of vaccine substance allegedly destined for the UK. Makes it look like the EU have had a triumph from playing hardball, and meanwhile it doesn't effect supplies to the UK at all. Because actually the substance was never intended for the UK in the first place.
It's a dangerous game though if so.
We are a warrior nation. Insular, pragmatic, sometimes silly - but also quite punchy. Slow to anger, but a bad enemy when riled. This will rile EVERYONE
One other thing as well re the faltering vaccine rollout. As we have seen today from the comments of Ben Wallace, it is looking increasingly unlikely that British tourists will be allowed to go to Europe this summer. That is going to be a body blow for the likes of Spain, Portugal and Italy, as well as Greece (depending what happens).
If the AZ move is pure gesture (should it happen) it looks like the EU might secure the worst case scenario (again) - maximum reputational damage to the EU, for no obvious gain whatsoever.
Drink taken?
A tight Sindy yes vote could make Brexit look like a picnic.
This article says no application made
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/eu-rebuffs-uk-calls-to-ship-astrazeneca-covid-vaccines-from-europe/wcm/61deabb8-d44a-47a5-a5a3-bbcd282a1467/amp/