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AOC-2024? Yes, the Democrats really could go from their oldest nominee to their youngest – political
AOC-2024? Yes, the Democrats really could go from their oldest nominee to their youngest – politicalbetting.com
Joe Biden is 5/2 against to be the Democrats’ nominee for president in 2024. There has surely never been such long odds for a first-term elected president. Frankly, I think that’s huge value despite his age. Political leaders do not give up lightly and only got where they are because of tenacity and a considerable belief in themselves.
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Couldn’t they think up with something bother than “the new Obama”?
History sometimes moves on with a big heave, rather than by small steps.
See Biden trip? He's probably not going to be the candidate in three and a half years time.
5/2 is a 40% chance. That seems too much for a 78 year old, who seems to already be struggling.
So, who to replace him?
AOC? No appeal beyond New York, San Francisco and... and... some other place I can't think of.
Buttigieg? I think he needs to be elected to something bigger than Mayor of South Bend first.
Harris is a terrible campaigner, but gets first dibs. If the next three and a half years is sunshine and honey for the US, then she is the nominee.
Otherwise, I think you need to look a bit further. What about Krysten Sisnema? Or Tammy Baldwin? Or Rahm Emmanuel? Or perhaps Amy Klobuchar?
I think I'd be selling AOC, Biden and Buttigieg.
2 months into his term, 46 more to go. 46 gruelling, get-me-outta-here months. (Although I expect it to be Acting President Kamala Harris under the 25th at some point within those 46...)
Betting PostF1: this isn't my type of bet (low odds, longish time frame). But Ladbrokes has a best rookie market Yuki Tsunoda (AlphaTauri) is 1.08. Schumacher and Mazepin are 10 and 15 respectively.
Tsunoda is almost certain to win this, barring serious injury that stops him racing. Haas have already said they aren't developing their car this year. The AlphaTauri was significantly faster last year anyway.
So, if a low odds but very likely bet is your thing, give this a look.
On-topic: entirely possible they'll go for her. Not inclined to back it given the time scale and relatively short odds, though.
However I thought Meghan Markle has started her campaign for the nomination?!
https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-meghan-markle-president-2024
Her suicidal comments, whilst treated sensitively by a lot of people, might come back to bite her. I'm painfully aware of the blight of mental ill-health but someone who might take their own life at the first hint of things not going their way is not a qualification for POTUS. That's not my take. It would be the opposition party's and, boy, would they ensure it was stirred. Not entirely unreasonably as it happens. If 'the Firm' can get to her that much then she's not strong enough to be President. Period. She thinks they're bad. Try Putin. Try China. Try any number of pressures that come the way of the President of the United States.
There's Schumer (no), Klobuchar (maybe), Warren (probably not) and... Catherine Cortez Mastro. Hispanic. Thinks better on her feet than Harris. Ambitious. And from a swing state.
She might be worth a small flutter if you can get triple digit odds for 2024.
I'm inclined to agree.
Not to mention foreign leaders wouldn't want their private conversations aired as part of a Winfrey interview.
"I just couldn't believe the Germans wanted me to drop tariffs in exchange for them doing likewise. It was so... transactional. So uncaring. Like, the world is made of numbers. But I'm a person. Not a number. That's my truth."
I'd sell AOC, Biden and Buttigieg. (Numbers two, three and four in the betting.)
Obama is very careful with his endorsements. He can't go throwing around endorsements to losers - that's burning political capital. He might give some modest encouragement but he's not going to weigh in until it's fairly clear how the wind is blowing.
https://capx.co/is-this-the-moment-the-snp-starts-to-lose-its-grip/
Covering the Alex Salmond/Nicola Sturgeon scandal feels like being a reporter tasked with covering a match between two teams for whom one has little sympathy in a slow-moving, slightly arcane sport for which one is not an enthusiast.
If the left are looking for a young standard bearer a more realistic one, not mentioned here, would be Jon Ossoff. He has more campaigning experience than Buttigieg, more appeal than Harris and certainly he’s demonstrated his ability to reach out to voters to win against the odds.
But my instinct is it will be Harris, quite possibly as a one-year incumbent.
But they were wrong. Biden won the Presidency, and tended to outperform radical congressional candidates in doing so. So, for the time being, the electability debate has been won. Now that could change if 2022 is very bad for Democrats - they are likely to lose the House, but if they lost it badly plus the Senate in spite of a good map, that creates an argument for radicals. At the moment, though, the moderate wing is in a strong position.
Said AOC.
He doesn't need to prove his campaigning credentials - his 2020 campaign is unarguably the one that beat expectations more than any other. He does need to prove he can perform in high office... but he has that chance as Transportation Secretary, which is a much bigger deal and more high profile position than that of a standard Congressman or Senator.
I don't think he'll stand in 2024 - he's got loads of time, demographic change makes his sexuality less electorally difficult over time, and he'll probably do a good deal with the current VP. But he doesn't require higher elected office.
Saw, on Ladbrokes, Williams at 3.2 to be bottom of the constructors and a special to be 9th or better at 1.8 (so you could back both and be guaranteed a profit). The latter has been suspended.
I don't mind bookies realising that sort of thing but leaving the market up only for a bet to not go through and only then appear suspended is irksome.
Including this:
"“The efficacy rate of domestic vaccines in preventing severe cases in China is more than 90%, and the overall protection rate is more than 70%,” said Zeng, adding that coronavirus treatment hospitals are high-risk areas where vaccinated medical staff cannot rule out the possibility of infection."
So what am i missing? If there have been no locally transmitted cases (let alone serious ones) since February, and you take at face value their numbers from before that, how do you come up with the efficacy rates in Chinaof vaccines in preventing serious or non-serious cases?
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1373151805450940416
I cannot see her picking up the redneck vote, but she has ambition and would get a lot of support from activists.
It's too early for me to bet on the next race, but AOC has a star quality that is very rare in politics.
https://capx.co/the-rout-of-the-covid-conspiracy-theorists/
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/biden-administration-should-end-war-on-drugs-by-cesar-gaviria-2021-03
https://capx.co/mishandling-of-foi-requests-is-a-threat-to-democracy/
https://thecritic.co.uk/lockdown-has-fostered-a-shadow-pandemic-of-violence-against-women/
Ultimately the Dems will have to go with whomever is best placed to beat Trump. Unless the economy is completely fucked that's probably Harris.
Sure we had heard of Biden in 2016, and Sanders, Warren too, but who had heard of Buttigeig, O'Rorke, Harris or Klobuchar?
It isn't quite true that there are no second acts in American lives, but second chances are rare.
Telegraph interview.
Addressing the VP as President seems such a minor infringement of sanity when his predecessor was earnestly advising Americans to introvenously self-medicate against Covid using domestic cleaning products.
Admittedly, when Britain declared it would try that many, including many on here and including me, were sceptical, but practical experience has seen the government totally vindicated.
No other nation - and certainly not the EU - has any excuse for going down another route given the data we now have.
What's @Chris referring to below - has he told us yet?
We know that for some vaccines young people react more due to their stronger immune systems. And that vaccinating those most likely to die must have been prioritised.
And it may be that for lower risk groups the reaction consequences may outweigh the benefits of a vaccine.
I see no necessary problem.
BTW Good interview with Kate Bingham
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/work/kate-bingham-exclusive-interview-eu-leaders-undermining-vaccine/
We really need to start looking at that quite carefully. The evidence seems to be accumulating that the vaccines do not completely prevent you catching Covid but they prevent you from getting ill of it. Some seem to have enough Covid to infect others which is a problem until we are all vaccinated. Once we are this virus will hopefully become a background nuisance for those already seriously ill.
Of course with the very frail with multiple conditions even a 99.99% vaccine may not be enough?
I didn't know about the Lord of the Rings TV series. I will look out for it.
She's short because she has a high profile on social media and makes memorable speeches and interventions. A lucid and charismatic RLB. That doesn't a winner make, even if the base love it.
Clear lay.
Why, therefore, they would pay any attention to the vaccine rollout anywhere else (and especially in perfidious Albion,) let alone try to draw any lessons from it, is quite beyond me.
And BAME people on the "good" side.
I don't say that to defend Trump. It's just the truth is mad enough not to require embellishment.
It’s AOBs socialism that actually cost Dems a bigger win in 2020.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxDKW75ueIU
Anyway, hopefully it will pass for you.
I look forward to feeling just as rough on Tuesday.
It will be impossible to reach zero deaths on the official measure, because many elderly hosts will die of something else.
Wee Krankie is safe as houses. She’ll just tough it out blaming bias opposition in hysterical election mode.
There are a lot of secular Puritans now, particularly but not exclusively on the Left and Greens.
It is a contrasting strand of English tradition to the aristocratic cavaliers. Different labels now but the same tradition. One of my favourite Cromwell quotes on the subject:
"I had rather have a plain, russet-coated Captain, that knows what he fights for, and loves what he knows, than that which you call a Gentle-man and is nothing else."
And that is how he won...
The tweet of PM went out yesterday evening, so I reckon he'll start to feel shit sometime in the 2nd half of the rugby.
Note how the PM was jabbed on a Friday evening. So weekend to recover at Chequers?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1373202563202486273
It struck me that this might mean fewer deaths from flu in future, as more people are likely to take the new double jab after all we have been through in last year.
She'll survive the week and the election. But the tide within her party does appear to have turned against her. She's lost the sheen of competence and invincibility, and it does appear to be when rather than if. I'm reminded of Blair in 2005 - a fairly comfortable election win but clearly heading to the exit door.
And if you previously had COVID you can feel even worse after a jab?
Is the continents third wave coming here?
I’m not sure where you get the contempt for democracy thing ? Or indeed the Trump comparison.
I don’t share her politics, but she’s the smartest socialist I’ve seen for a long time.
For anyone wanting to keep track of how things are going to go in Mainland Europe, I'd suggest these two.
People most vulnerable to COVID is people who have not had a single dose, and also to some extent people who have not had the condition.
Either way, a lot of people will be dying soon, especially in the absence of pretty vicious lockdowns until perhaps May when another three or four times as many people have had a dose. A lot of people dying are locked in already by high case numbers, as we know from UK experience over Dec-Feb.
A one-third chance that he doesn't stand again is still very high by historical standards, but lower than the current odds.
If he doesn't stand again then I think there are two main factors that will have a bearing. Firstly, how tough the next few years are, and secondly, what is Trump doing?
The harder the next few years are the stronger will be the challenge from the Left.
If Trump, or his anointed successor, remains a credible threat, then that reduces the chances of a left challenge being successful.
I expect that the next few years will be hard, that the 2024 contest will be the first re-run since 1956, and I only hope that Biden will manage to defeat Trump again.
If Biden runs to be Democratic candidate, he's VERY hard to beat. If Trump stands to be Republican candidate, he's VERY hard to beat.
There are reasons they may well not stand. Indeed, on balance I think neither will. But those aren't that they'd be flawed candidates - they are principally that they'd choose not to do it. One reason they might not stand is because they recognise their weaknesses, but people in their position aren't known for being shrinking violets.