Oh my effing god, this vax hysteria in continental Europe is actually unbelievable. It's like someone has made the whole thing up as a global exercise in fake news.
Yet it appears to be true.
I've yet to understand what they think is happening in the UK, with over 10m having had the AZ jab, and why that is irrelevant to their judging of the risk.
The UK is the country that must not be named. There was a soul-searching article in one of the German papers this weekend comparing the success of the US on vaccines with the EU, with not a mention of Britain.
Yes, even the original Spiegel article lamenting EU vaccine procurement compared it to the US and the UK just got a passing mention, that was before all of this as well.
I fear that over the next few weeks as the UK programme really speeds up the bitterness and acrimony is going to increase.
It has the potential to get very ugly. Italy has slid back into lockdown, the German emergency doctors have started demanding it, and the French curfew may only be slowing their case rate growth down. I suspect that much of Europe is basically going through various stages of which happened to us between November and January.
It's now entirely possible that some EU countries will still be in lockdown in May when most of the restrictions in the UK are scheduled to be binned. I wonder what else apart from Northern Ireland they'll find to pick fresh fights over?
The TCA hasn't been officially ratified on the EU side...
Oh my effing god, this vax hysteria in continental Europe is actually unbelievable. It's like someone has made the whole thing up as a global exercise in fake news.
Yet it appears to be true.
I've yet to understand what they think is happening in the UK, with over 10m having had the AZ jab, and why that is irrelevant to their judging of the risk.
Separate supply chain, remember? I'm not saying that is what has happened (my hope and expectation is that it's a false alarm) but an issue in one factory is a plausible mechanism for problems in one place but not another.
But they have the evidence from their own supply chain, as well. I believe the EU has now done 7m AZ jabs. So they too would be seeing a huge surge in deaths-by-blood-clot, if this is a real issue. Instead they've got about half a dozen or whatever. Tiny numbers.
Meanwhile, the precautionary principle says they should keep injecting AZ as fast as possible, as we KNOW that vaccine saves lives, protects hospitals, and prevents transmission.
There is no logic to what they are doing. Absolutely none at all. It is all bad politics and foolish emotions.
Jedward, bless em, seem to have joined the brigade of blue ticks posting nonsense for likes and retweets. Mind you, as Irishmen, they have no reason to like Churchill.
Regarding things that 'have no place in our society' I fear they may be projecting.
I am sorry to say I had never heard of Jedward, but to a lot of Tory voters, however unfairly, Jedward comes across as the sorts of people (are there two of them in the picture?) who might at a pinch support Labour. Perhaps someone can tell me who they are.
Well. For a start they are Irish m'lud.
They possibly blame Churchill for the death of Roger Casement, and one or two other Fenian bits and pieces. But it would have been nice if their Irish forebears had done their little bit against fascism when Churchill was on the go....
Oh my effing god, this vax hysteria in continental Europe is actually unbelievable. It's like someone has made the whole thing up as a global exercise in fake news.
Yet it appears to be true.
I've yet to understand what they think is happening in the UK, with over 10m having had the AZ jab, and why that is irrelevant to their judging of the risk.
Separate supply chain, remember? I'm not saying that is what has happened (my hope and expectation is that it's a false alarm) but an issue in one factory is a plausible mechanism for problems in one place but not another.
Theoretically possible, but unlikely. Quite besides the fact that the number of reported cases is exceedingly small relative to the number of vaccinations administered, has anyone yet proposed any plausible biological mechanism by which an injection of minuscule viral particles could cause an embolism?
Sigh. My wife has been having a problem with a kidney stone. She has just been told to come into hospital tonight so they can operate tomorrow. She was due to finally get her vaccination on Thursday. Roughly 2/3 of all Scottish infections have come through hospitals.
At 60 she really should have been vaccinated weeks ago so that she would have some protection. I am not happy. Not at all.
I'm in Scotland. I turned 60 last week and get my 1st jab on Thursday.
My wife turned 60 last September. She was Thursday too. Its one of the reasons I have been a bit grumpy about how far Scotland is behind everyone else.
Some excellent points, as ever - but again, written at such length it loses impact. A shame.
I see you haven't entirely escaped the malign influence of Twitter. In this case on your attention span.
Possibly some truth in that. In fact I believe this is scientifically proven: human attention spans have shortened with the advent of the Net.
On the other hand lockdown has got me back reading long books, day in day out, a good habit I had lost.
I just don't want to read long books on PB.
Long books? Try "Underworld" by Don DeLillo. Post-war USA in the form of an 800-page novel. Nearly finished it, and will feel bereft when I have. Utterly compelling. Starts with an extraordinary evocation of the 1951 baseball match when Bobby Thomson hit the "shot that was heard round the world." Tremendous vignettes featuring the likes of J Edgar Hoover and Lenny Bruce. Reading it is the best thing I've done since lockdown commenced - along with discovering Miles Davis (and me a confirmed jazz-hater, or so I thought).
The edition of Underworld I was reading in 2001 had on the cover a monocrome picture of the the World Trade Centre towering over the St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Church on Cedar Street. I was in the middle of reading it when 9/11 happened. It is still on my bookshelf, the Waterstones receipt marking where I stopped reading it at the end of my Tube journed on the morning of 9/11 nearly 20 years ago. I have not been able to pick it up since
Lockdown long books: Abulafia: The Boundless Sea. Middlemarch. Bleak House. Last Chronicle of Barset (but read the other 5 first). Dance to the Music of Time.
I was idly wondering if that pool of dead voters in NI maintained by both sides have also retained their NHS number? If so, there's going to be a good bit of cross-border jabbing too...
Mostly gone now.
A wonderful piece of bravery - a few years back, one the of checks of the voter rolls caused a huge number of nationalist voters to vanish. The Shinners did their "we aren't calling for violence, but...." thing.
The head the election commission in NI gave a press conference and asked anyone who had been disenfranchised to call his office number. Which he gave out...
Britons are continuing to have the AZ jab regardless of events in Europe, and should continue to do so, as there is no evidence that it causes blood clots, the head of the Royal College of GPs told the Guardian.
“Over 24 million people in the UK have now been vaccinated, many of whom have successfully received the AstraZeneca drug with no side-effects. Where patients have reported side-effects such as flu-like symptoms and muscle aches, these have been minor and transient.
“The public should be reassured that whilst these new vaccines were developed and approved at speed, no corners were cut and patient safety has been, and remains, paramount”, said Prof Martin Marshall, the chair of the RCGP.
“The MHRA [Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency] has been unable to confirm that the reports of blood clots were caused by the vaccine and is advising people to get their vaccine when asked to do so.
“The message we are hearing back from our GP members is that patients are following this advice, and GPs are continuing with the vaccination effort to ensure that as many people as possible are protected, as quickly as possible”, added Marshall, who is a family doctor in London.
In a statement, the European Medicines Agency said:
EMA currently remains of the view that the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine in preventing Covid-19, with its associated risk of hospitalisation and death, outweigh the risks of side effects.
It said it was working closely with AstraZeneca and national health regulators, including the UK’s MHRA, to analyse all available data and establish whether the vaccine might have contributed to the incidences, the Guardian’s Jon Henley adds.
The EMA’s safety committee will meet on Tuesday and the regulator will announce a decision on any further action on Thursday, it said, adding that it “currently remains of the view that the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine in preventing Covid-19, with its associated risk of hospitalisation and death, outweigh the risks of side effects.
Jedward, bless em, seem to have joined the brigade of blue ticks posting nonsense for likes and retweets. Mind you, as Irishmen, they have no reason to like Churchill.
Regarding things that 'have no place in our society' I fear they may be projecting.
I am sorry to say I had never heard of Jedward, but to a lot of Tory voters, however unfairly, Jedward comes across as the sorts of people (are there two of them in the picture?) who might at a pinch support Labour. Perhaps someone can tell me who they are.
Well. For a start they are Irish m'lud.
They possibly blame Churchill for the death of Roger Casement, and one or two other Fenian bits and pieces. But it would have been nice if their Irish forebears had done their little bit against fascism when Churchill was on the go....
There was a certain amount of 'feeling' about the British Government, for totally understandable reasons.
Jedward, bless em, seem to have joined the brigade of blue ticks posting nonsense for likes and retweets. Mind you, as Irishmen, they have no reason to like Churchill.
Regarding things that 'have no place in our society' I fear they may be projecting.
I am sorry to say I had never heard of Jedward, but to a lot of Tory voters, however unfairly, Jedward comes across as the sorts of people (are there two of them in the picture?) who might at a pinch support Labour. Perhaps someone can tell me who they are.
Well. For a start they are Irish m'lud.
They possibly blame Churchill for the death of Roger Casement, and one or two other Fenian bits and pieces. But it would have been nice if their Irish forebears had done their little bit against fascism when Churchill was on the go....
IF you check out the detailed history, you might find out that the did do their bit, for example Irish recruits for the British Army.
Churchill's bull-in-a-China-shop approach to Ireland in WW2, was almost as counterproductive as his similar strategy re: India.
As for Roger Casement, doubt that WSC was much involved, as at the time of the Easter Rising he was out of the government and (I believe) serving with the Army in France.
Churchill DID have a major role in orchestrating Lloyd George's terror campaign in Ireland ("murder by the throat") after WW1, in particular the Cairo Gang murder squad. A strategy that backfired spectacularly, thanks to Michael Collins.
Which was one reason anyway, why Collins was just about the only Irishman for whom WSC had any real respect.
Jedward, bless em, seem to have joined the brigade of blue ticks posting nonsense for likes and retweets. Mind you, as Irishmen, they have no reason to like Churchill.
Regarding things that 'have no place in our society' I fear they may be projecting.
I am sorry to say I had never heard of Jedward, but to a lot of Tory voters, however unfairly, Jedward comes across as the sorts of people (are there two of them in the picture?) who might at a pinch support Labour. Perhaps someone can tell me who they are.
Well. For a start they are Irish m'lud.
They possibly blame Churchill for the death of Roger Casement, and one or two other Fenian bits and pieces. But it would have been nice if their Irish forebears had done their little bit against fascism when Churchill was on the go....
From memory I believe around 70000 did..
....And got brutally treated by the Irish state afterwards.
Interestingly, the Irish Army encouraged enlistment in the UK army, tacitly.
In a statement, the European Medicines Agency said:
EMA currently remains of the view that the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine in preventing Covid-19, with its associated risk of hospitalisation and death, outweigh the risks of side effects.
It said it was working closely with AstraZeneca and national health regulators, including the UK’s MHRA, to analyse all available data and establish whether the vaccine might have contributed to the incidences, the Guardian’s Jon Henley adds.
The EMA’s safety committee will meet on Tuesday and the regulator will announce a decision on any further action on Thursday, it said, adding that it “currently remains of the view that the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine in preventing Covid-19, with its associated risk of hospitalisation and death, outweigh the risks of side effects.
Let's hope the EMA doesn't come under pressure to cover the arses of their political leaders, and trot out some BS doubts.
As someone else noted, it will be quite awkward if the EMA does greenlight AZ, because the EMA's board is made up of scientists from national regulators, which have now suspended AZ. How do they square that circle and explain it to skeptical Europeans?
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
The announcement of confirmed re-opening dates and the provision of booking arrangements on the websites for pubs local to me improves my mood, however.
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
Absolutely the same here. It's like a time dilation effect - some kind of psychic relativity - the closer we get to the black hole of unlockdown, the slower time passes. Hours drag like days. Two days is a week. I can't believe we've only just reached the middle of March.
I have so few things to do. Work, and sleep. Work, and sleep. An occasional biscuit. Tick.... tock.
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
That is a very common feeling. June 21 is approximately 226 million years away.
There's no point in thinking that much about May or June. The first thing to look forward to is the Easter long weekend, which starts in about two-and-a-half weeks' time and will be a welcome break for most of us who work (even if there's not much else to do by then, unless you're looking forward to sport getting going outdoors again.)
Once we get to Easter then April 12th is only one week on from Easter Monday. Now, if that round of unlocking can go ahead on schedule and the weather decides to play nice, then I think it'll start to feel a lot more like the end is in sight.
So they are simultaneously blocking exports and going cap in hand to the US to borrow some of their vaccines, while banning the use of the vaccine for two weeks. Utter madness.
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
Absolutely the same here. It's like a time dilation effect - some kind of psychic relativity - the closer we get to the black hole of unlockdown, the slower time passes. Hours drag like days. Two days is a week. I can't believe we've only just reached the middle of March.
I have so few things to do. Work, and sleep. Work, and sleep. An occasional biscuit. Tick.... tock.
Still, the deep satisfaction of beautifully fashioned dildos to leaven the routine.
Schools testing. It's still too early for any detected case change to be driven by schools return, but it's definitely driven by an extra 800k tests a day being carried out.
What is the shelf life of AZ? Is there a serious risk that this madness might end up wasting some of the vaccine?
Happily quite long so hopefully it won't lead to too much waste. Obviously if approval is rescinded then I'm sure AZ will ship the existing doses to other clients.
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
Absolutely the same here. It's like a time dilation effect - some kind of psychic relativity - the closer we get to the black hole of unlockdown, the slower time passes. Hours drag like days. Two days is a week. I can't believe we've only just reached the middle of March.
I have so few things to do. Work, and sleep. Work, and sleep. An occasional biscuit. Tick.... tock.
Yes, we've been having that feeling too. One of the things we've done is indulge in a box of Ferrero Rocher and we're having one each per day. It's been a nice treat.
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
Only you would take this line. Deluded doesn't even start to cover it. Your constant EU ball licking was funny for a while, now it's just sad.
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
There is no evidence of any link. In the UK the same rate was seen amongst recipients of the Pfizer vaccine, and it was a rate similar to, or lower than, the background rate. The MHRA agree, and so do the EMA. It's the politicians that are cancelling things left right and center.
Schools testing. It's still too early for any detected case change to be driven by schools return, but it's definitely driven by an extra 800k tests a day being carried out.
In addition, the entire rise is in the 0-14 age cohort.
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
Absolutely the same here. It's like a time dilation effect - some kind of psychic relativity - the closer we get to the black hole of unlockdown, the slower time passes. Hours drag like days. Two days is a week. I can't believe we've only just reached the middle of March.
I have so few things to do. Work, and sleep. Work, and sleep. An occasional biscuit. Tick.... tock.
Well, there's always that spreadsheet of your various friends sexual partners counts that you are working on, if you get really bored
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
That is a very common feeling. June 21 is approximately 226 million years away.
There's no point in thinking that much about May or June. The first thing to look forward to is the Easter long weekend, which starts in about two-and-a-half weeks' time and will be a welcome break for most of us who work (even if there's not much else to do by then, unless you're looking forward to sport getting going outdoors again.)
Once we get to Easter then April 12th is only one week on from Easter Monday. Now, if that round of unlocking can go ahead on schedule and the weather decides to play nice, then I think it'll start to feel a lot more like the end is in sight.
It’s a shame they didn’t use the Easter weekend to open outdoor pubs. I’d forecast 2 April and was out by 10 days, but that 10 days means the pubs remain closed over Easter which seems daft.
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
Absolutely the same here. It's like a time dilation effect - some kind of psychic relativity - the closer we get to the black hole of unlockdown, the slower time passes. Hours drag like days. Two days is a week. I can't believe we've only just reached the middle of March.
I have so few things to do. Work, and sleep. Work, and sleep. An occasional biscuit. Tick.... tock.
Well, there's always that spreadsheet of your various friends sexual partners counts that you are working on, if you get really bored
Like with PHE, he might hit the row limit in Excel.
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
Again, this might make sense if WE WEREN'T IN A PANDEMIC. 2.6m people have died of Covid, which is prevented by AZ. 74,000 have died in Germany, and they are still dying daily.
The Germans are treating AZ like an experimental new drug for a rare disease in a time of normality. This does not apply here.
The precautionary principle, the balance of risks and benefits, says proceed with the vaccinations - because we KNOW they save lives - while at the same time investigating any weird side effect, which they admit are "very rare".
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
My reading of our stats is that we've recorded a grand total of 4 of the specific type of sinus thrombosis events they are concerned about.
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
Absolutely the same here. It's like a time dilation effect - some kind of psychic relativity - the closer we get to the black hole of unlockdown, the slower time passes. Hours drag like days. Two days is a week. I can't believe we've only just reached the middle of March.
I have so few things to do. Work, and sleep. Work, and sleep. An occasional biscuit. Tick.... tock.
Well, there's always that spreadsheet of your various friends sexual partners counts that you are working on, if you get really bored
Like with PHE, he might hit the row limit in Excel.
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
There is no evidence of any link. In the UK the same rate was seen amongst recipients of the Pfizer vaccine, and it was a rate similar to, or lower than, the background rate. The MHRA agree, and so do the EMA. It's the politicians that are cancelling things left right and center.
Data up to the 28th Feb for each vaccine in the UK.
"As of 28 Feb, an estimated 10.7 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 9.7 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine had been administered, and around 0.8 million second doses, mostly the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, had been administered."
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
What a bizarre line to take. There is no evidence of any link, and delaying has massive consequences for public confidence. Your posts these last few weeks are increasingly bizarre. You seem determined to find the worst in any situation.
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
That is a very common feeling. June 21 is approximately 226 million years away.
There's no point in thinking that much about May or June. The first thing to look forward to is the Easter long weekend, which starts in about two-and-a-half weeks' time and will be a welcome break for most of us who work (even if there's not much else to do by then, unless you're looking forward to sport getting going outdoors again.)
Once we get to Easter then April 12th is only one week on from Easter Monday. Now, if that round of unlocking can go ahead on schedule and the weather decides to play nice, then I think it'll start to feel a lot more like the end is in sight.
It’s a shame they didn’t use the Easter weekend to open outdoor pubs. I’d forecast 2 April and was out by 10 days, but that 10 days means the pubs remain closed over Easter which seems daft.
I think it was deliberate. Reopen on a quiet Monday, not Good Friday for a 4-day Bank Holiday weekend
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
What a bizarre line to take. There is no evidence of any link, and delaying has massive consequences for public confidence. Your posts these last few weeks are increasingly bizarre. You seem determined to find the worst in any situation.
Think about what each side represents in this and how dedicated FF43 is to the EU. That's where this is coming from, not any real concern. Anyone who looks at the data can see it's not an issue.
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
That is a very common feeling. June 21 is approximately 226 million years away.
There's no point in thinking that much about May or June. The first thing to look forward to is the Easter long weekend, which starts in about two-and-a-half weeks' time and will be a welcome break for most of us who work (even if there's not much else to do by then, unless you're looking forward to sport getting going outdoors again.)
Once we get to Easter then April 12th is only one week on from Easter Monday. Now, if that round of unlocking can go ahead on schedule and the weather decides to play nice, then I think it'll start to feel a lot more like the end is in sight.
It’s a shame they didn’t use the Easter weekend to open outdoor pubs. I’d forecast 2 April and was out by 10 days, but that 10 days means the pubs remain closed over Easter which seems daft.
I think it was deliberate. Reopen on a quiet Monday, not Good Friday for a 4-day Bank Holiday weekend
It’s a shame though, and not clear it would make much difference. You still get a weekend in a few days. They could have opened 29 March, if they wanted to start on a Monday.
My father has asked a question, anyone have an answer?
What is going to happen to the EU citizens due their second AZN vaccine?
These people are going to be in limbo and terrified for all the wrong reasons.
I'm a little worried my second Pfizer jab is gonna be export banned or some other bullsh*t.
Mrs Foxy was due her second dose on Thursday. Cancelled due to lack of supply, as were the rest of her team.
There’s a horrible typo in that post which I’ve fixed.
The vax numbers today were underwhelming, suggesting that the much vaunted surge might be a few days in coming.
Hope she gets fixed up soon.
I thought the figures were really good given the day of the week?
Nope. They were the best since early Feb, but they need to be far, far better than that if we are to roll this over by June. It might come, it should come, but no evidence in the data today,
Why 15 days? What if the EMA comes out on Thursday (or whenever it is) and says AZ is safe?
Again, the logic escapes me, if there is any.
Demand reduction?
Buck passing - "Its all the EVUL Brits and their EVUL companies fault."
There is so much of this delusional shit on here, what is the matter with you?
I bet you one euro in two weeks this German hysteria will prove to be a load of hairy bollocks and you'll be back to using AZ, only with a more reluctant population
Other than us, how many developed countries - outside of the EU - are actually using AstraZeneca today?
I can think of one: Canada.
Who else?
Is everyone in BioNTech's pocket?
They do have super, duper, humungously deep pockets.
Also, excluding the UK and EU from "developed" countries doesn't leave all that many. It's really just the US, Australia, NZ, Japan and S Korea who aren't. The latter three don't have anything like as much of a pressing need as most of the EU - and the US has lots of home grown options.
And yet the real world data from the UK is absolutely first rate, the issue here is absolutely a political one rather than medical. Politicians of Europe have decided that AZ delivering to Brexit Britain as a priority and not the EU is beyond the pale and are now trying to "suffocate" AZ and it's business. Obviously it's not going to work because there isn't anything wrong with the vaccine and all they're really doing is harming their own people and economies. Still, it's about what I've come to expect from them.
If all they were doing was harming their own, it wouldn’t be quite so bad.
They’re also badly undermining Covax and the global effort to get the world vaccinated, thus prolonging the pandemic everywhere by months if not years, at a cost of millions of lives and trillions of dollars.
I don't know if it will have any real effect. So far there doesn't seem to be any uptick in vaccine hesitancy outside of Europe. One thing about the majority of European media not being in English is that the stories don't spread as quickly or widely in Africa and Asia, it's an inbuilt firewall against this stuff. I also think having the Oxford University name attached to it as well as continued unquestioning support from the WHO will ultimately be worth more than what's happening in Europe.
I think most people look at the shitfest in Europe and recognise it as something isolated to the EU.
I'm slightly worried that it might somehow spill over and affect the COVAX rollout. The EU has been desperately trying to claim the credit for it, with their diplomats even suggesting that AZ vaccines delivered from South Korea had come from the EU. It's scandalous.
Honestly, I just find it all a bit sad. This all stems from the EU continuing to act like a jilted ex. As I said yesterday, a few weeks ago I heard rumours that the EU had effectively threatened to cut off trade talks with Australia if the UK joined the CPTPP, I didn't believe it at the time as it just seemed ridiculous. Now I'm inclined to believe it. All of their actions are driven by their absolute refusal to accept the the UK has left and is now acting completely independently of them. The unnecessary border pedantry, the inability to accept that the UK contract with AZ is written better than the EU one, the threats over financial equivalence despite the UK having stronger financial regulations than what is required under equivalence rules.
I'd now say it's odds on that the EU is taking their grievances against the UK outside of Europe and giving countries a "them or us" choice.
I think the EU would rather bend over backwards for the devil than try and accommodate the UK.
Indeed. One of the reasons I've reversed my position on this is because one of our guys who deals with EU based investment and has got very, very good political sources in Europe said that the people he knows are shocked that the UK isn't co-ordinating anything except the TCA with the EU and is instead acting completely independently of them. They expected the UK to continue to co-operate with the EU for external trade and to side with the EU at the WTO, UN and other international organisations automatically. That we haven't done those things has been a really, really big shock to the system for them and he says it's ramped up their jilted ex feelings more than before.
And, we will - where our interests align.
The UK has a special relationship with the USA, very much as the junior partner. But, that isn't built on total obedience and, if it was, we wouldn't have a special relationship.
We really only have a special relationship in the minds of some British politicians who use it as an excuse to suck up to Washington. The USA has a close relationship with us on security matters, but then it also does with a small number of key allies, but it always has been "America first" long before the Trump era. Our "special relationship" means jackshit when it comes to most matters. Genuine patriots should be embarrassed by how UK politicians desperately want to be seen as "bestest friend" with a foreign power.
Our security, defence and foreign policy co-operation with the USA is unprecedented, and our influence understated - I could list examples with Thatcher and Reagan in the Cold War, Thatcher over Bush over Iraq, Blair over Clinton in Kosovo, Blair and W Bush in Iraq, and Cameron over Obama in Libya. Boris is now pushing the D10 idea with Biden.
The days of America being able to successfully act solo in the world are gone.
It always amuses me when people here pretend the Special Relationship isn't real.
America will put their own interests first when push comes to shove - and the average American may not care that much - but the Oval Office typically really does care about it.
Heck the Special Relationship is so real that Ed Miliband was able to prevent an American military campaign (!)
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
Again, this might make sense if WE WEREN'T IN A PANDEMIC. 2.6m people have died of Covid, which is prevented by AZ. 74,000 have died in Germany, and they are still dying daily.
The Germans are treating AZ like an experimental new drug for a rare disease in a time of normality. This does not apply here.
The precautionary principle, the balance of risks and benefits, says proceed with the vaccinations - because we KNOW they save lives - while at the same time investigating any weird side effect, which they admit are "very rare".
It is an extremely poor decision.
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
On topic: ” A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes – will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.”
Mill's class isn't he. I'd love to hear Ed Davey quote him ...
My father has asked a question, anyone have an answer?
What is going to happen to the EU citizens due their second AZN vaccine?
These people are going to be in limbo and terrified for all the wrong reasons.
I'm a little worried my second Pfizer jab is gonna be export banned or some other bullsh*t.
Mrs Foxy was due her second dose on Thursday. Cancelled due to lack of supply, as were the rest of her team.
There’s a horrible typo in that post which I’ve fixed.
The vax numbers today were underwhelming, suggesting that the much vaunted surge might be a few days in coming.
Hope she gets fixed up soon.
I thought the figures were really good given the day of the week?
Nope. They were the best since early Feb, but they need to be far, far better than that if we are to roll this over by June. It might come, it should come, but no evidence in the data today,
The direction of travel is clear, any difference today will be the difference between 95% and 98% complete come June.
Why 15 days? What if the EMA comes out on Thursday (or whenever it is) and says AZ is safe?
Again, the logic escapes me, if there is any.
Demand reduction?
Buck passing - "Its all the EVUL Brits and their EVUL companies fault."
There is so much of this delusional shit on here, what is the matter with you?
It's how politicians work - first thing is deflecting the blame on to anything else. The UK is convenient for this at the moment.
The Italian government, in particular has form for this. After the Yugoslav Wars, there was a problem with liver cancer noticed among Italian soldiers who had served there. The Italian government was all fired up to blame the US for depleted uranium. Until a Professor of chemistry did an investigation and discovered that the soldiers in question had been given a mix of toluene and benzene to remove floor polish. By the Italian Army... With no PPE....
The response was to try and get the Professor fired.
A mix of toluene and benzene is so efficient at creating liver cancer, that they used to use it to create liver cancer in mice for study.....
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
Again, this might make sense if WE WEREN'T IN A PANDEMIC. 2.6m people have died of Covid, which is prevented by AZ. 74,000 have died in Germany, and they are still dying daily.
The Germans are treating AZ like an experimental new drug for a rare disease in a time of normality. This does not apply here.
The precautionary principle, the balance of risks and benefits, says proceed with the vaccinations - because we KNOW they save lives - while at the same time investigating any weird side effect, which they admit are "very rare".
It is an extremely poor decision.
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
Yes, statistical significance is bread and butter for anyone who has a scientific or mathematical background. It's not very difficult to work out either.
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
Again, this might make sense if WE WEREN'T IN A PANDEMIC. 2.6m people have died of Covid, which is prevented by AZ. 74,000 have died in Germany, and they are still dying daily.
The Germans are treating AZ like an experimental new drug for a rare disease in a time of normality. This does not apply here.
The precautionary principle, the balance of risks and benefits, says proceed with the vaccinations - because we KNOW they save lives - while at the same time investigating any weird side effect, which they admit are "very rare".
It is an extremely poor decision.
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
My father has asked a question, anyone have an answer?
What is going to happen to the EU citizens due their second AZN vaccine?
These people are going to be in limbo and terrified for all the wrong reasons.
I'm a little worried my second Pfizer jab is gonna be export banned or some other bullsh*t.
Mrs Foxy was due her second dose on Thursday. Cancelled due to lack of supply, as were the rest of her team.
There’s a horrible typo in that post which I’ve fixed.
The vax numbers today were underwhelming, suggesting that the much vaunted surge might be a few days in coming.
Hope she gets fixed up soon.
I thought the figures were really good given the day of the week?
Nope. They were the best since early Feb, but they need to be far, far better than that if we are to roll this over by June. It might come, it should come, but no evidence in the data today,
The direction of travel is clear, any difference today will be the difference between 95% and 98% complete come June.
Anyway, today's jab figures are for Sunday. The time for serious doubt about the long-awaited surge is if we get to Wednesday or Thursday and a big jump still hasn't happened, I would've thought.
First impressions of the new briefing room - S'OK. I feel it's a bit of a missed opportunity. They have tried to let some oak panelling show through, but it's still quite anonymous.
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
It's not Merkel, it's the independent Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I think it's more an error caused by a, how shall I put it, rather Teutonic application of the precautionary principle.
My father has asked a question, anyone have an answer?
What is going to happen to the EU citizens due their second AZN vaccine?
These people are going to be in limbo and terrified for all the wrong reasons.
I'm a little worried my second Pfizer jab is gonna be export banned or some other bullsh*t.
Mrs Foxy was due her second dose on Thursday. Cancelled due to lack of supply, as were the rest of her team.
There’s a horrible typo in that post which I’ve fixed.
The vax numbers today were underwhelming, suggesting that the much vaunted surge might be a few days in coming.
Hope she gets fixed up soon.
I thought the figures were really good given the day of the week?
Nope. They were the best since early Feb, but they need to be far, far better than that if we are to roll this over by June. It might come, it should come, but no evidence in the data today,
The direction of travel is clear, any difference today will be the difference between 95% and 98% complete come June.
Anyway, today's jab figures are for Sunday. The time for serious doubt about the long-awaited surge is if we get to Wednesday or Thursday and a big jump still hasn't happened, I would've thought.
Almost certainly Saturday - the guesstimate is that the numbers have a 2 day lag.
Perhaps the EU countries are hoping that two weeks of vaccine starvation followed by the all clear will do a lot for vaccine hesitancy. Bit of reverse psychology.
My fear with the AZ issue, is not that it has no basis, but that it does have a basis. It's a risk I identified back last summer when PB had a thread on vaccine risks. Because the vaccines are being administered in very large numbers very quickly, it is possible for a serious adverse effect to be missed in trials, to only affect a tiny proportion of those inoculated, but to accumulate to a still small but significant number of people in total.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
Again, this might make sense if WE WEREN'T IN A PANDEMIC. 2.6m people have died of Covid, which is prevented by AZ. 74,000 have died in Germany, and they are still dying daily.
The Germans are treating AZ like an experimental new drug for a rare disease in a time of normality. This does not apply here.
The precautionary principle, the balance of risks and benefits, says proceed with the vaccinations - because we KNOW they save lives - while at the same time investigating any weird side effect, which they admit are "very rare".
It is an extremely poor decision.
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
Yes, statistical significance is bread and butter for anyone who has a scientific or mathematical background. It's not very difficult to work out either.
Mind you, remember the Nuclear power decision. Very similar thinking.
Other than us, how many developed countries - outside of the EU - are actually using AstraZeneca today?
I can think of one: Canada.
Who else?
Is everyone in BioNTech's pocket?
They do have super, duper, humungously deep pockets.
Also, excluding the UK and EU from "developed" countries doesn't leave all that many. It's really just the US, Australia, NZ, Japan and S Korea who aren't. The latter three don't have anything like as much of a pressing need as most of the EU - and the US has lots of home grown options.
And yet the real world data from the UK is absolutely first rate, the issue here is absolutely a political one rather than medical. Politicians of Europe have decided that AZ delivering to Brexit Britain as a priority and not the EU is beyond the pale and are now trying to "suffocate" AZ and it's business. Obviously it's not going to work because there isn't anything wrong with the vaccine and all they're really doing is harming their own people and economies. Still, it's about what I've come to expect from them.
If all they were doing was harming their own, it wouldn’t be quite so bad.
They’re also badly undermining Covax and the global effort to get the world vaccinated, thus prolonging the pandemic everywhere by months if not years, at a cost of millions of lives and trillions of dollars.
I don't know if it will have any real effect. So far there doesn't seem to be any uptick in vaccine hesitancy outside of Europe. One thing about the majority of European media not being in English is that the stories don't spread as quickly or widely in Africa and Asia, it's an inbuilt firewall against this stuff. I also think having the Oxford University name attached to it as well as continued unquestioning support from the WHO will ultimately be worth more than what's happening in Europe.
I think most people look at the shitfest in Europe and recognise it as something isolated to the EU.
I'm slightly worried that it might somehow spill over and affect the COVAX rollout. The EU has been desperately trying to claim the credit for it, with their diplomats even suggesting that AZ vaccines delivered from South Korea had come from the EU. It's scandalous.
Honestly, I just find it all a bit sad. This all stems from the EU continuing to act like a jilted ex. As I said yesterday, a few weeks ago I heard rumours that the EU had effectively threatened to cut off trade talks with Australia if the UK joined the CPTPP, I didn't believe it at the time as it just seemed ridiculous. Now I'm inclined to believe it. All of their actions are driven by their absolute refusal to accept the the UK has left and is now acting completely independently of them. The unnecessary border pedantry, the inability to accept that the UK contract with AZ is written better than the EU one, the threats over financial equivalence despite the UK having stronger financial regulations than what is required under equivalence rules.
I'd now say it's odds on that the EU is taking their grievances against the UK outside of Europe and giving countries a "them or us" choice.
I think the EU would rather bend over backwards for the devil than try and accommodate the UK.
Indeed. One of the reasons I've reversed my position on this is because one of our guys who deals with EU based investment and has got very, very good political sources in Europe said that the people he knows are shocked that the UK isn't co-ordinating anything except the TCA with the EU and is instead acting completely independently of them. They expected the UK to continue to co-operate with the EU for external trade and to side with the EU at the WTO, UN and other international organisations automatically. That we haven't done those things has been a really, really big shock to the system for them and he says it's ramped up their jilted ex feelings more than before.
And, we will - where our interests align.
The UK has a special relationship with the USA, very much as the junior partner. But, that isn't built on total obedience and, if it was, we wouldn't have a special relationship.
We really only have a special relationship in the minds of some British politicians who use it as an excuse to suck up to Washington. The USA has a close relationship with us on security matters, but then it also does with a small number of key allies, but it always has been "America first" long before the Trump era. Our "special relationship" means jackshit when it comes to most matters. Genuine patriots should be embarrassed by how UK politicians desperately want to be seen as "bestest friend" with a foreign power.
Our security, defence and foreign policy co-operation with the USA is unprecedented, and our influence understated - I could list examples with Thatcher and Reagan in the Cold War, Thatcher over Bush over Iraq, Blair over Clinton in Kosovo, Blair and W Bush in Iraq, and Cameron over Obama in Libya. Boris is now pushing the D10 idea with Biden.
The days of America being able to successfully act solo in the world are gone.
It always amuses me when people here pretend the Special Relationship isn't real.
America will put their own interests first when push comes to shove - and the average American may not care that much - but the Oval Office typically really does care about it.
Heck the Special Relationship is so real that Ed Miliband was able to prevent an American military campaign (!)
My assumption is that generally all out allies see us as trustworthy. This is in sharp contrast to (say) the French, who have backstabbed their allies consistently - for example the goings on in the Levant in WW2. However I'm basing this on what I suspect may be a far from complete picture. I'd be quite interested in examples of British perfidy!
From the US point of view we represent no risk, and a lot of gain in terms of just having fingers in all the pies.
The Atlantic is a nice big ocean to have between us.
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
That is a very common feeling. June 21 is approximately 226 million years away.
There's no point in thinking that much about May or June. The first thing to look forward to is the Easter long weekend, which starts in about two-and-a-half weeks' time and will be a welcome break for most of us who work (even if there's not much else to do by then, unless you're looking forward to sport getting going outdoors again.)
Once we get to Easter then April 12th is only one week on from Easter Monday. Now, if that round of unlocking can go ahead on schedule and the weather decides to play nice, then I think it'll start to feel a lot more like the end is in sight.
Once the stay at home messaging is dropped then we should at least be able to meet up with friends outside that otherwise would have been too far away to meet, which will be at least some sort of a step forward.
My father has asked a question, anyone have an answer?
What is going to happen to the EU citizens due their second AZN vaccine?
These people are going to be in limbo and terrified for all the wrong reasons.
I'm a little worried my second Pfizer jab is gonna be export banned or some other bullsh*t.
Mrs Foxy was due her second dose on Thursday. Cancelled due to lack of supply, as were the rest of her team.
There’s a horrible typo in that post which I’ve fixed.
The vax numbers today were underwhelming, suggesting that the much vaunted surge might be a few days in coming.
Hope she gets fixed up soon.
I thought the figures were really good given the day of the week?
Nope. They were the best since early Feb, but they need to be far, far better than that if we are to roll this over by June. It might come, it should come, but no evidence in the data today,
The direction of travel is clear, any difference today will be the difference between 95% and 98% complete come June.
Anyway, today's jab figures are for Sunday. The time for serious doubt about the long-awaited surge is if we get to Wednesday or Thursday and a big jump still hasn't happened, I would've thought.
These aren’t surge numbers, when controlling for the day of the week. It might come, it should come, it probably will come. But it certainly hasn’t come yet. And we have a lot of catching up to do. March so far has been poor.
My father has asked a question, anyone have an answer?
What is going to happen to the EU citizens due their second AZN vaccine?
These people are going to be in limbo and terrified for all the wrong reasons.
I'm a little worried my second Pfizer jab is gonna be export banned or some other bullsh*t.
Mrs Foxy was due her second dose on Thursday. Cancelled due to lack of supply, as were the rest of her team.
There’s a horrible typo in that post which I’ve fixed.
The vax numbers today were underwhelming, suggesting that the much vaunted surge might be a few days in coming.
Hope she gets fixed up soon.
I thought the figures were really good given the day of the week?
Nope. They were the best since early Feb, but they need to be far, far better than that if we are to roll this over by June. It might come, it should come, but no evidence in the data today,
The direction of travel is clear, any difference today will be the difference between 95% and 98% complete come June.
Anyway, today's jab figures are for Sunday. The time for serious doubt about the long-awaited surge is if we get to Wednesday or Thursday and a big jump still hasn't happened, I would've thought.
These aren’t surge numbers, when controlling for the day of the week. It might come, it should come, it probably will come. But it certainly hasn’t come yet. And we have a lot of catching up to do. March so far has been poor.
Oh my effing god, this vax hysteria in continental Europe is actually unbelievable. It's like someone has made the whole thing up as a global exercise in fake news.
Yet it appears to be true.
I've yet to understand what they think is happening in the UK, with over 10m having had the AZ jab, and why that is irrelevant to their judging of the risk.
The UK is the country that must not be named. There was a soul-searching article in one of the German papers this weekend comparing the success of the US on vaccines with the EU, with not a mention of Britain.
Yes, even the original Spiegel article lamenting EU vaccine procurement compared it to the US and the UK just got a passing mention, that was before all of this as well.
I fear that over the next few weeks as the UK programme really speeds up the bitterness and acrimony is going to increase.
It has the potential to get very ugly. Italy has slid back into lockdown, the German emergency doctors have started demanding it, and the French curfew may only be slowing their case rate growth down. I suspect that much of Europe is basically going through various stages of which happened to us between November and January.
It's now entirely possible that some EU countries will still be in lockdown in May when most of the restrictions in the UK are scheduled to be binned. I wonder what else apart from Northern Ireland they'll find to pick fresh fights over?
The TCA hasn't been officially ratified on the EU side...
I know someone in Europe who wants the European Parliament to scrap the TCA now on the basis supposedly of the UK being in breach of the Protocol.
No idea how common that viewpoint is, but the vaccines will be egging that on.
Other than us, how many developed countries - outside of the EU - are actually using AstraZeneca today?
I can think of one: Canada.
Who else?
Is everyone in BioNTech's pocket?
They do have super, duper, humungously deep pockets.
Also, excluding the UK and EU from "developed" countries doesn't leave all that many. It's really just the US, Australia, NZ, Japan and S Korea who aren't. The latter three don't have anything like as much of a pressing need as most of the EU - and the US has lots of home grown options.
And yet the real world data from the UK is absolutely first rate, the issue here is absolutely a political one rather than medical. Politicians of Europe have decided that AZ delivering to Brexit Britain as a priority and not the EU is beyond the pale and are now trying to "suffocate" AZ and it's business. Obviously it's not going to work because there isn't anything wrong with the vaccine and all they're really doing is harming their own people and economies. Still, it's about what I've come to expect from them.
If all they were doing was harming their own, it wouldn’t be quite so bad.
They’re also badly undermining Covax and the global effort to get the world vaccinated, thus prolonging the pandemic everywhere by months if not years, at a cost of millions of lives and trillions of dollars.
I don't know if it will have any real effect. So far there doesn't seem to be any uptick in vaccine hesitancy outside of Europe. One thing about the majority of European media not being in English is that the stories don't spread as quickly or widely in Africa and Asia, it's an inbuilt firewall against this stuff. I also think having the Oxford University name attached to it as well as continued unquestioning support from the WHO will ultimately be worth more than what's happening in Europe.
I think most people look at the shitfest in Europe and recognise it as something isolated to the EU.
I'm slightly worried that it might somehow spill over and affect the COVAX rollout. The EU has been desperately trying to claim the credit for it, with their diplomats even suggesting that AZ vaccines delivered from South Korea had come from the EU. It's scandalous.
Honestly, I just find it all a bit sad. This all stems from the EU continuing to act like a jilted ex. As I said yesterday, a few weeks ago I heard rumours that the EU had effectively threatened to cut off trade talks with Australia if the UK joined the CPTPP, I didn't believe it at the time as it just seemed ridiculous. Now I'm inclined to believe it. All of their actions are driven by their absolute refusal to accept the the UK has left and is now acting completely independently of them. The unnecessary border pedantry, the inability to accept that the UK contract with AZ is written better than the EU one, the threats over financial equivalence despite the UK having stronger financial regulations than what is required under equivalence rules.
I'd now say it's odds on that the EU is taking their grievances against the UK outside of Europe and giving countries a "them or us" choice.
I think the EU would rather bend over backwards for the devil than try and accommodate the UK.
Indeed. One of the reasons I've reversed my position on this is because one of our guys who deals with EU based investment and has got very, very good political sources in Europe said that the people he knows are shocked that the UK isn't co-ordinating anything except the TCA with the EU and is instead acting completely independently of them. They expected the UK to continue to co-operate with the EU for external trade and to side with the EU at the WTO, UN and other international organisations automatically. That we haven't done those things has been a really, really big shock to the system for them and he says it's ramped up their jilted ex feelings more than before.
And, we will - where our interests align.
The UK has a special relationship with the USA, very much as the junior partner. But, that isn't built on total obedience and, if it was, we wouldn't have a special relationship.
We really only have a special relationship in the minds of some British politicians who use it as an excuse to suck up to Washington. The USA has a close relationship with us on security matters, but then it also does with a small number of key allies, but it always has been "America first" long before the Trump era. Our "special relationship" means jackshit when it comes to most matters. Genuine patriots should be embarrassed by how UK politicians desperately want to be seen as "bestest friend" with a foreign power.
Our security, defence and foreign policy co-operation with the USA is unprecedented, and our influence understated - I could list examples with Thatcher and Reagan in the Cold War, Thatcher over Bush over Iraq, Blair over Clinton in Kosovo, Blair and W Bush in Iraq, and Cameron over Obama in Libya. Boris is now pushing the D10 idea with Biden.
The days of America being able to successfully act solo in the world are gone.
It always amuses me when people here pretend the Special Relationship isn't real.
America will put their own interests first when push comes to shove - and the average American may not care that much - but the Oval Office typically really does care about it.
Heck the Special Relationship is so real that Ed Miliband was able to prevent an American military campaign (!)
My assumption is that generally all out allies see us as trustworthy. This is in sharp contrast to (say) the French, who have backstabbed their allies consistently - for example the goings on in the Levant in WW2. However I'm basing this on what I suspect may be a far from complete picture. I'd be quite interested in examples of British perfidy!
From the US point of view we represent no risk, and a lot of gain in terms of just having fingers in all the pies.
The Atlantic is a nice big ocean to have between us.
A lot of countries 'sell their friends and buy their enemies' - and I think it would be fair to say we've done that a lot in the past.
My father has asked a question, anyone have an answer?
What is going to happen to the EU citizens due their second AZN vaccine?
These people are going to be in limbo and terrified for all the wrong reasons.
I'm a little worried my second Pfizer jab is gonna be export banned or some other bullsh*t.
Mrs Foxy was due her second dose on Thursday. Cancelled due to lack of supply, as were the rest of her team.
There’s a horrible typo in that post which I’ve fixed.
The vax numbers today were underwhelming, suggesting that the much vaunted surge might be a few days in coming.
Hope she gets fixed up soon.
I thought the figures were really good given the day of the week?
Nope. They were the best since early Feb, but they need to be far, far better than that if we are to roll this over by June. It might come, it should come, but no evidence in the data today,
The direction of travel is clear, any difference today will be the difference between 95% and 98% complete come June.
Anyway, today's jab figures are for Sunday. The time for serious doubt about the long-awaited surge is if we get to Wednesday or Thursday and a big jump still hasn't happened, I would've thought.
These aren’t surge numbers, when controlling for the day of the week. It might come, it should come, it probably will come. But it certainly hasn’t come yet. And we have a lot of catching up to do. March so far has been poor.
My father has asked a question, anyone have an answer?
What is going to happen to the EU citizens due their second AZN vaccine?
These people are going to be in limbo and terrified for all the wrong reasons.
I'm a little worried my second Pfizer jab is gonna be export banned or some other bullsh*t.
Mrs Foxy was due her second dose on Thursday. Cancelled due to lack of supply, as were the rest of her team.
There’s a horrible typo in that post which I’ve fixed.
The vax numbers today were underwhelming, suggesting that the much vaunted surge might be a few days in coming.
Hope she gets fixed up soon.
I thought the figures were really good given the day of the week?
Nope. They were the best since early Feb, but they need to be far, far better than that if we are to roll this over by June. It might come, it should come, but no evidence in the data today,
The direction of travel is clear, any difference today will be the difference between 95% and 98% complete come June.
Anyway, today's jab figures are for Sunday. The time for serious doubt about the long-awaited surge is if we get to Wednesday or Thursday and a big jump still hasn't happened, I would've thought.
These aren’t surge numbers, when controlling for the day of the week. It might come, it should come, it probably will come. But it certainly hasn’t come yet. And we have a lot of catching up to do. March so far has been poor.
March 13th was the second best reporting day of the whole exercise, and March 14th was at least substantially better than March 7th. It looks like they're getting there.
On topic: ” A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes – will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.”
Mill's class isn't he. I'd love to hear Ed Davey quote him ...
It would be good if Davey was replaced by an actual liberal.
But then I remember Davey probably is the most liberal Liberal Democrat.
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
Absolutely the same here. It's like a time dilation effect - some kind of psychic relativity - the closer we get to the black hole of unlockdown, the slower time passes. Hours drag like days. Two days is a week. I can't believe we've only just reached the middle of March.
I have so few things to do. Work, and sleep. Work, and sleep. An occasional biscuit. Tick.... tock.
Yes, we've been having that feeling too. One of the things we've done is indulge in a box of Ferrero Rocher and we're having one each per day. It's been a nice treat.
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
It's not Merkel, it's the independent Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I think it's more an error caused by a, how shall I put it, rather Teutonic application of the precautionary principle.
The Times Berlin correspondent here, crunching the Paul Ehrlich numbers. He's not anti-German and he is trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. So...
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
I find time moves at a snail's pace during lockdown. Even 12 April seems an eternity away. I hate the feeling of a grey, sluggish existence.
Absolutely the same here. It's like a time dilation effect - some kind of psychic relativity - the closer we get to the black hole of unlockdown, the slower time passes. Hours drag like days. Two days is a week. I can't believe we've only just reached the middle of March.
I have so few things to do. Work, and sleep. Work, and sleep. An occasional biscuit. Tick.... tock.
Yes, we've been having that feeling too. One of the things we've done is indulge in a box of Ferrero Rocher and we're having one each per day. It's been a nice treat.
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
It's not Merkel, it's the independent Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I think it's more an error caused by a, how shall I put it, rather Teutonic application of the precautionary principle.
The Times Berlin correspondent here, crunching the Paul Ehrlich numbers. He's not anti-German and he is trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. So...
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
It's not Merkel, it's the independent Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I think it's more an error caused by a, how shall I put it, rather Teutonic application of the precautionary principle.
The Times Berlin correspondent here, crunching the Paul Ehrlich numbers. He's not anti-German and he is trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. So...
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
It's not Merkel, it's the independent Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I think it's more an error caused by a, how shall I put it, rather Teutonic application of the precautionary principle.
The Times Berlin correspondent here, crunching the Paul Ehrlich numbers. He's not anti-German and he is trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. So...
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
Is that incidence rate calculated across the same demographics as those receiving the vaccine? I think the UK figures were controlled for that.
A cynical German lady has quite rightly pointed out that German women are expected to tolerate a vastly higher risk of thrombosis when they take the contraceptive pill - 1 in 1000 rather than 1 in 100,000
My father has asked a question, anyone have an answer?
What is going to happen to the EU citizens due their second AZN vaccine?
These people are going to be in limbo and terrified for all the wrong reasons.
I'm a little worried my second Pfizer jab is gonna be export banned or some other bullsh*t.
Mrs Foxy was due her second dose on Thursday. Cancelled due to lack of supply, as were the rest of her team.
There’s a horrible typo in that post which I’ve fixed.
The vax numbers today were underwhelming, suggesting that the much vaunted surge might be a few days in coming.
Hope she gets fixed up soon.
I thought the figures were really good given the day of the week?
Nope. They were the best since early Feb, but they need to be far, far better than that if we are to roll this over by June. It might come, it should come, but no evidence in the data today,
The direction of travel is clear, any difference today will be the difference between 95% and 98% complete come June.
Anyway, today's jab figures are for Sunday. The time for serious doubt about the long-awaited surge is if we get to Wednesday or Thursday and a big jump still hasn't happened, I would've thought.
These aren’t surge numbers, when controlling for the day of the week. It might come, it should come, it probably will come. But it certainly hasn’t come yet. And we have a lot of catching up to do. March so far has been poor.
My guess is that the government wants groups 1-9 complete by next Monday so that when we unlock on 12/4 all of them have some level of immunity. I think there are around 3-4m left to do.
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
It's not Merkel, it's the independent Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I think it's more an error caused by a, how shall I put it, rather Teutonic application of the precautionary principle.
The Times Berlin correspondent here, crunching the Paul Ehrlich numbers. He's not anti-German and he is trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. So...
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
It's irrational and innumerate. I would have expected better of Merkle tbh. She is absolutely crap at sorting out the EU's problems but this is something that should be second nature to her.
It's not Merkel, it's the independent Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I think it's more an error caused by a, how shall I put it, rather Teutonic application of the precautionary principle.
The Times Berlin correspondent here, crunching the Paul Ehrlich numbers. He's not anti-German and he is trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. So...
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
"The prognosis of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis is generally favourable"
So they've stopped distributing a life saving vaccine during a plague because.... there's a 1 in 100,000 chance you will suffer a headache-like complaint which is generally non-fatal.
Comments
Meanwhile, the precautionary principle says they should keep injecting AZ as fast as possible, as we KNOW that vaccine saves lives, protects hospitals, and prevents transmission.
There is no logic to what they are doing. Absolutely none at all. It is all bad politics and foolish emotions.
Again, the logic escapes me, if there is any.
A wonderful piece of bravery - a few years back, one the of checks of the voter rolls caused a huge number of nationalist voters to vanish. The Shinners did their "we aren't calling for violence, but...." thing.
The head the election commission in NI gave a press conference and asked anyone who had been disenfranchised to call his office number. Which he gave out...
Crickets... Crickets....
Britons are continuing to have the AZ jab regardless of events in Europe, and should continue to do so, as there is no evidence that it causes blood clots, the head of the Royal College of GPs told the Guardian.
“Over 24 million people in the UK have now been vaccinated, many of whom have successfully received the AstraZeneca drug with no side-effects. Where patients have reported side-effects such as flu-like symptoms and muscle aches, these have been minor and transient.
“The public should be reassured that whilst these new vaccines were developed and approved at speed, no corners were cut and patient safety has been, and remains, paramount”, said Prof Martin Marshall, the chair of the RCGP.
“The MHRA [Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency] has been unable to confirm that the reports of blood clots were caused by the vaccine and is advising people to get their vaccine when asked to do so.
“The message we are hearing back from our GP members is that patients are following this advice, and GPs are continuing with the vaccination effort to ensure that as many people as possible are protected, as quickly as possible”, added Marshall, who is a family doctor in London.
EMA currently remains of the view that the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine in preventing Covid-19, with its associated risk of hospitalisation and death, outweigh the risks of side effects.
It said it was working closely with AstraZeneca and national health regulators, including the UK’s MHRA, to analyse all available data and establish whether the vaccine might have contributed to the incidences, the Guardian’s Jon Henley adds.
The EMA’s safety committee will meet on Tuesday and the regulator will announce a decision on any further action on Thursday, it said, adding that it “currently remains of the view that the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine in preventing Covid-19, with its associated risk of hospitalisation and death, outweigh the risks of side effects.
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1371513491887112195?s=20
Churchill's bull-in-a-China-shop approach to Ireland in WW2, was almost as counterproductive as his similar strategy re: India.
As for Roger Casement, doubt that WSC was much involved, as at the time of the Easter Rising he was out of the government and (I believe) serving with the Army in France.
Churchill DID have a major role in orchestrating Lloyd George's terror campaign in Ireland ("murder by the throat") after WW1, in particular the Cairo Gang murder squad. A strategy that backfired spectacularly, thanks to Michael Collins.
Which was one reason anyway, why Collins was just about the only Irishman for whom WSC had any real respect.
Interestingly, the Irish Army encouraged enlistment in the UK army, tacitly.
As someone else noted, it will be quite awkward if the EMA does greenlight AZ, because the EMA's board is made up of scientists from national regulators, which have now suspended AZ. How do they square that circle and explain it to skeptical Europeans?
https://twitter.com/ATabarrok/status/1371510557153456130?s=20
https://twitter.com/ATabarrok/status/1371514301752643592?s=20
https://twitter.com/PCagnan/status/1371501475575259138
I have so few things to do. Work, and sleep. Work, and sleep. An occasional biscuit. Tick.... tock.
Once we get to Easter then April 12th is only one week on from Easter Monday. Now, if that round of unlocking can go ahead on schedule and the weather decides to play nice, then I think it'll start to feel a lot more like the end is in sight.
Does this matter? It does. Reputationally and in practice you can only get away with a small number of serious adverse effects on patients, unless they are very ill already.
This is the press release from the German Paul Ehrlich Institut (which is general has been supportive of the AZ vaccine) on why they recommend a pause. The newly identified issue is the nature of the blood clots, not the number.
The Germans are treating AZ like an experimental new drug for a rare disease in a time of normality. This does not apply here.
The precautionary principle, the balance of risks and benefits, says proceed with the vaccinations - because we KNOW they save lives - while at the same time investigating any weird side effect, which they admit are "very rare".
It is an extremely poor decision.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/968414/COVID-19_AstraZeneca_Vaccine_Analysis_Print.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/968413/COVID-19_mRNA_Pfizer-_BioNTech_Vaccine_Analysis_Print__2_.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/968414/COVID-19_AstraZeneca_Vaccine_Analysis_Print.pdf
"As of 28 Feb, an estimated 10.7 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 9.7 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine had been administered, and around 0.8 million second doses, mostly the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, had been administered."
The vax numbers today were underwhelming, suggesting that the much vaunted surge might be a few days in coming.
Hope she gets fixed up soon.
I understand that the government actually relied on an act from the 80s in the HIV era.
"Lockdown and the quarantine rules and most of the other regulations have been made under the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984"
See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_(Control_of_Disease)_Act_1984
America will put their own interests first when push comes to shove - and the average American may not care that much - but the Oval Office typically really does care about it.
Heck the Special Relationship is so real that Ed Miliband was able to prevent an American military campaign (!)
Mill's class isn't he. I'd love to hear Ed Davey quote him ...
The Italian government, in particular has form for this. After the Yugoslav Wars, there was a problem with liver cancer noticed among Italian soldiers who had served there. The Italian government was all fired up to blame the US for depleted uranium. Until a Professor of chemistry did an investigation and discovered that the soldiers in question had been given a mix of toluene and benzene to remove floor polish. By the Italian Army... With no PPE....
The response was to try and get the Professor fired.
A mix of toluene and benzene is so efficient at creating liver cancer, that they used to use it to create liver cancer in mice for study.....
From the US point of view we represent no risk, and a lot of gain in terms of just having fingers in all the pies.
The Atlantic is a nice big ocean to have between us.
No idea how common that viewpoint is, but the vaccines will be egging that on.
But then I remember Davey probably is the most liberal Liberal Democrat.
The Germans have noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in people given AZ.
The "striking accumulation" turns out to be 7 cases out of 1.6m Germans given AZ. This is maybe 8 times the rate you'd expect in a normal population (though of course some or all of these 7 people may have Covid which is CAUSING this rise, we know Covid is implicated in thromboses). We also don't know if the 7 cases were fatal
So the Germans have suspended the use of a life saving vaccine in a desperate pandemic because of some exceptionally rare events that are still exceptionally rare, just less so.
This is not a sensible application of the precautionary principle. See the whole thread
https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1371526706733981700?s=20
https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1371525925976862722?s=20
Which concludes
https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1371528163411509251?s=20
https://twitter.com/derspiegel/status/1371499289566908417
Indeed its symptoms are often fairly nonspecific, with headache etc. It is quite possibly under recognised, at least initially.
https://pmj.bmj.com/content/76/891/12
Any application of the precautionary principle where data is available with which to make relative cost benefit analyses is inappropriate in my view.
"The prognosis of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis is generally favourable"
So they've stopped distributing a life saving vaccine during a plague because.... there's a 1 in 100,000 chance you will suffer a headache-like complaint which is generally non-fatal.
Genius