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Silencing Us – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 15 in General
imageSilencing Us – politicalbetting.com

Picture BBC

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Comments

  • TazTaz Posts: 52
    Am I first ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 52
    I was. Not bad for a stuck at work refugee from Facebook politics
  • IPSOS has Labour polling quite well, just the Tories are polling even better!!!!

    38% is historically good for Labour, it's just unfortunate the Tories are currently so far ahead
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,035

    IPSOS has Labour polling quite well, just the Tories are polling even better!!!!

    38% is historically good for Labour, it's just unfortunate the Tories are currently so far ahead

    Unfortunate? :)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,691
    RobD said:

    IPSOS has Labour polling quite well, just the Tories are polling even better!!!!

    38% is historically good for Labour, it's just unfortunate the Tories are currently so far ahead

    Unfortunate? :)
    It all depends on your perspective. For me its unfortunate that almost every other club in League 1 has more points than the mighty Swindon...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,914
    edited March 15
    On topic. Yeah, seems over the top. If this is about stopping ***** like XR from shutting down London, I'm sure existing legislation gives enough scope to move them on. And if not, any new legislation needs to be specific about what problems it wants to solve (e.g. ensuring that ambulances can get to hospitals - e.g. St Thomas's).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020
    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    Some excellent points, as ever - but again, written at such length it loses impact. A shame.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    Not that they needed the excuse, but I wonder if various times rushing through legislation during the Brexit entanglements, to prevent and enact, has made the government get a little used to normalising minimising scrutiny.

    They never liked it, but it's becoming a habit. Mps are bad enough at it as they get no political reward for the skill.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,595
    Leon said:

    Some excellent points, as ever - but again, written at such length it loses impact. A shame.

    Have we ever seen you and @Mysticrose in the same (chat)room?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,595
    kle4 said:

    Not that they needed the excuse, but I wonder if various times rushing through legislation during the Brexit entanglements, to prevent and enact, has made the government get a little used to normalising minimising scrutiny.

    They never liked it, but it's becoming a habit. Mps are bad enough at it as they get no political reward for the skill.

    Bingo.

    The story of the Pandemic-era legislation is a very unedifying one for our democracy and yet seems to get huge approval in the various polls conducted.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,691
    Leon said:
    Like sheep, they are following each other. Monumental folly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    Police always want more powers. Politicians are tempted to provide it to show they are 'serious', but need to consider if they are necessary or proportionate. When they stop assessing that they have been in office too long.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 1,240
    edited March 15
    Point of order: experts "once they move beyond their expertise" are not experts. This is, unfortunately, something that the media and - by extension - the general public fail to understand.

    Edit: Which, of course, is Cyclefree's point. So I'll shut up now!
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108
    kle4 said:

    Not that they needed the excuse, but I wonder if various times rushing through legislation during the Brexit entanglements, to prevent and enact, has made the government get a little used to normalising minimising scrutiny.

    They never liked it, but it's becoming a habit. Mps are bad enough at it as they get no political reward for the skill.

    Isn’t it more that we’ve all forgotten what it looks like when there’s a big majority in place? As had been said many times, when the Government has a majority we live in an elected dictatorship.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020
    We have made way, way too many laws recently. We could do worse than starting from the principle that everything law created in the last 18 months should be rescinded. If there are any decent ones in there we can have a public debate about retaining them.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,176
    Last year saw an orgy of far-left violence and vandalism smashing up our city centres; this year brings action to prevent a repeat performance.

    If people are expecting public opinion to be against the government on this, then they are sorely mistaken...
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,273
    Selebian said:

    Point of order: experts "once they move beyond their expertise" are not experts. This is, unfortunately, something that the media and - by extension - the general public fail to understand.

    Edit: Which, of course, is Cyclefree's point. So I'll shut up now!

    I would say comedians commenting on politics is a case in point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142

    kle4 said:

    Not that they needed the excuse, but I wonder if various times rushing through legislation during the Brexit entanglements, to prevent and enact, has made the government get a little used to normalising minimising scrutiny.

    They never liked it, but it's becoming a habit. Mps are bad enough at it as they get no political reward for the skill.

    Isn’t it more that we’ve all forgotten what it looks like when there’s a big majority in place? As had been said many times, when the Government has a majority we live in an elected dictatorship.
    Its part that, but not entirely. Even when a big majority exists it doesn't follow that said government will just bulldoze through process to avoid debate and scrutiny.

    The temptation is there, they will curtail things to a degree, but smart governments know taking time and going through proper debate and scrutiny helps them develop better legislation, alongside political distraction.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727

    Leon said:
    Like sheep, they are following each other. Monumental folly.
    I confess, I thought of all the countries that might do this, the last on the list was sensible, Teutonic Germany, governed by a Chancellor with a career in science behind her.

    There is no evidence to justify this extreme reaction, which endangers life. What is more remarkable, is that, even if these few cases of "thrombosis" ARE eventually linked to OxfordAZ, then it still, clearly, makes sense to continue using the vax, as catching Covid gives you a 1% chance of dying and a 5% chance of life-altering ICU treatment, whereas taking OXAZ gives you (if it is ever proved) a 0.0016% chance of a dangerous thrombosis.

    And yet, the Germans have succumbed to this nonsense.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,860
    In other news: Russia has concluded an agreement to produce the Sputnik vaccine in Germany

    https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/coronavirus-ticker-alle-news-vom-15-bis-21-maerz,SRi4FOR
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108
    If the USA wants to troll them, this would be the prefect week to announce the approval of AZ.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,280
    Welcome to PB, Mr/Ms. Taz.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    MaxPB said:

    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.

    I don't think there's any need to worry. The cavalry is just over the hill, in about 20 days we're going to get deliveries of Novavax and Moderna, the former will dwarf our Pfizer deliveries very quickly as we have bought 100% of domestic capacity until all 60m doses are delivered and Novavax are a specialist vaccine company unlike AZ who had little to no expertise in the field when they got the Oxford deal. It's a bit like Gandalf arriving with the Rohirrim after 5 days in the battle of Helm's Deep, we know he's on the way and ultimately will lead us to victory.
    If we do 20 days at ~400,000 (or more) a day (which seems very plausible on he rumours) we will do another 8-10m adults, on top of the 24m done already. 50% of the country will be vaxxed, at least. Another surge after that means herd immunity by May?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 679
    Leon said:

    Leon said:
    Like sheep, they are following each other. Monumental folly.
    I confess, I thought of all the countries that might do this, the last on the list was sensible, Teutonic Germany, governed by a Chancellor with a career in science behind her.

    There is no evidence to justify this extreme reaction, which endangers life. What is more remarkable, is that, even if these few cases of "thrombosis" ARE eventually linked to OxfordAZ, then it still, clearly, makes sense to continue using the vax, as catching Covid gives you a 1% chance of dying and a 5% chance of life-altering ICU treatment, whereas taking OXAZ gives you (if it is ever proved) a 0.0016% chance of a dangerous thrombosis.

    And yet, the Germans have succumbed to this nonsense.
    Absolute ASTONISHING STUPIDITY in Europe re this - will lead to 10,000s more deaths.

    Let's hope Boris and Hancock stand firm here - the AZN vaccine is perfectly safe and the UK vaccine programme must continue full speed ahead!

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,244
    Leon said:

    Some excellent points, as ever - but again, written at such length it loses impact. A shame.

    I see you haven't entirely escaped the malign influence of Twitter.
    In this case on your attention span.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    Some well made points again, Cyclefree. I think the lack of scrutiny in this time is not just the government's fault. The opposition and media hold more of the blame IMO, they've been too happy focusing on process stories and gotcha moments rather than actually holding the government to account on some of the really big decisions they've failed on. Personally I think the biggest failure of the last year is the £38bn spent on test, trace and don't bother to isolate system. Not only is it our taxes being pissed away, it has also added months onto our year of lockdown.

    I also agree that the restrictions on protests are egregious, finally Labour seems to have grown some kind of backbone and begun to actually oppose the government. Any government which puts the right to free protest under these kinds of measures is simply unfit for purpose. Giving the police ultimate say over what can and can't go ahead is moving us in the direction of a police state which given our Home Secretary is unsurprising. If only the liberal wing of the Tory party had reconciled itself to brexit in 2016 all of this could have been avoided and we'd actually have a liberal voice within the government.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,850
    edited March 15

    RobD said:

    IPSOS has Labour polling quite well, just the Tories are polling even better!!!!

    38% is historically good for Labour, it's just unfortunate the Tories are currently so far ahead

    Unfortunate? :)
    It all depends on your perspective. For me its unfortunate that almost every other club in League 1 has more points than the mighty Swindon...
    My favourite anecdote from Swindon is still about Kevin McCloud's Triangle development, where a review was having a nimby whine-fest in the comments,

    Old house owner: "These new houses are reflecting noise in my direction."
    New house owner: "I can't hear it through the triple glazing."

    (I may have slightly misreported that.)
  • glwglw Posts: 7,199
    Leon said:

    Leon said:
    Like sheep, they are following each other. Monumental folly.
    I confess, I thought of all the countries that might do this, the last on the list was sensible, Teutonic Germany, governed by a Chancellor with a career in science behind her.

    There is no evidence to justify this extreme reaction, which endangers life. What is more remarkable, is that, even if these few cases of "thrombosis" ARE eventually linked to OxfordAZ, then it still, clearly, makes sense to continue using the vax, as catching Covid gives you a 1% chance of dying and a 5% chance of life-altering ICU treatment, whereas taking OXAZ gives you (if it is ever proved) a 0.0016% chance of a dangerous thrombosis.

    And yet, the Germans have succumbed to this nonsense.
    Really? The German response to Fukushima was to abandon all nuclear power, that wasn't any more rational than what's going on now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Some excellent points, as ever - but again, written at such length it loses impact. A shame.

    I see you haven't entirely escaped the malign influence of Twitter.
    In this case on your attention span.
    Possibly some truth in that. In fact I believe this is scientifically proven: human attention spans have shortened with the advent of the Net.

    On the other hand lockdown has got me back reading long books, day in day out, a good habit I had lost.

    I just don't want to read long books on PB.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,092
    MaxPB said:

    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.

    I don't think there's any need to worry. The cavalry is just over the hill, in about 20 days we're going to get deliveries of Novavax and Moderna, the former will dwarf our Pfizer deliveries very quickly as we have bought 100% of domestic capacity until all 60m doses are delivered and Novavax are a specialist vaccine company unlike AZ who had little to no expertise in the field when they got the Oxford deal. It's a bit like Gandalf arriving with the Rohirrim after 5 days in the battle of Helm's Deep, we know he's on the way and ultimately will lead us to victory.
    I'm fascinated as to which one I'll be getting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,381
    Blimey, you are on a roll @Cyclefree

    Another excellent header, even for the slow of reading.

    One tiny quibble. The fact that the government wins the vast majority of JRs is rather a point in the government's favour. What I see through my friends is that many cases seem to be arguing points that have been argued and then determined by superior courts repeatedly. Immigration appeals tend to be whether or not the facts of the particular case in some way make it different from the clear principles set out in decided cases. The answer is usually no.

    The government's concern is that there is a very considerable cost in running these cases for which they are usually paying all 3 sides, the petitioner, the respondent and of course the court with zero opportunity for recovery. There are also a lot of incidental costs, so, for example, a plane stopper will mean in excess of £10k of costs written off for the immigrant and his or her escort.

    It also means the system remains clogged up with cases that are not determined because so much time passes new applications in changed circumstances can start the circus all over again.

    This is a recent decision in a case run by a friend of mine. https://scotcourts.gov.uk/docs/default-source/cos-general-docs/pdf-docs-for-opinions/2021csoh010.pdf?sfvrsn=0

    He won and the decision of the Upper Tribunal was quashed and will have to be reconsidered. Well done Stephen.

    What I find disturbing is that this applicant applied for asylum on 21st June 2013. I mean, what the hell? How can this still be before the courts (and now requiring another hearing) nearly 8 years later? We do need to stop this. If this person is entitled to asylum he should have had it about 7 years ago. If he's not he should have been extradited at least 6 years ago.

    Having a legal system that is so bogged down that it just doesn't work really isn't fair on anyone; the applicants or the British taxpayer.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,860
    Leon said:
    How many German politicians have shares in BioNTech?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Some excellent points, as ever - but again, written at such length it loses impact. A shame.

    I see you haven't entirely escaped the malign influence of Twitter.
    In this case on your attention span.
    I like a long piece, but even long pieces can be trimmed.

    But I wouldn't wish to adjust someones idiosyncratic style too much.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020
    edited March 15

    Last year saw an orgy of far-left violence and vandalism smashing up our city centres; this year brings action to prevent a repeat performance.

    If people are expecting public opinion to be against the government on this, then they are sorely mistaken...

    Who is talking about public opinion? Public opinion is an ass much of the time. I believe the public are in favour of hanging, or at least were until quite recently. I dare say much of the public were in favour of locking up gays in the 1970s.

    The tyranny of the majority is still tyranny.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.

    I don't think there's any need to worry. The cavalry is just over the hill, in about 20 days we're going to get deliveries of Novavax and Moderna, the former will dwarf our Pfizer deliveries very quickly as we have bought 100% of domestic capacity until all 60m doses are delivered and Novavax are a specialist vaccine company unlike AZ who had little to no expertise in the field when they got the Oxford deal. It's a bit like Gandalf arriving with the Rohirrim after 5 days in the battle of Helm's Deep, we know he's on the way and ultimately will lead us to victory.
    If we do 20 days at ~400,000 (or more) a day (which seems very plausible on he rumours) we will do another 8-10m adults, on top of the 24m done already. 50% of the country will be vaxxed, at least. Another surge after that means herd immunity by May?
    I think we're geared up for 3m first and 3m second doses per week at peak capacity right now, we should hit that rate late this week and into the next 3-5 weeks from what I understand. Both Pfizer and AZ claim to have resolved most of the manufacturing issues that plagued them through February and the early part of this month. It takes time from that to actually certifying the doses and getting them into people's arms and that's where we are at the moment.

    When you add in that Moderna will commence deliveries in the first week of April and there is a very large initial delivery of Novavax due the day it receives approval and then ongoing exclusive domestic supply we know April is going to be an absolutely huge month. We're genuinely just around the corner from victory, I haven't been this hopeful in just under a year since the start of the first lockdown.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,927
    Leon said:

    Leon said:
    Like sheep, they are following each other. Monumental folly.
    I confess, I thought of all the countries that might do this, the last on the list was sensible, Teutonic Germany, governed by a Chancellor with a career in science behind her.

    There is no evidence to justify this extreme reaction, which endangers life. What is more remarkable, is that, even if these few cases of "thrombosis" ARE eventually linked to OxfordAZ, then it still, clearly, makes sense to continue using the vax, as catching Covid gives you a 1% chance of dying and a 5% chance of life-altering ICU treatment, whereas taking OXAZ gives you (if it is ever proved) a 0.0016% chance of a dangerous thrombosis.

    And yet, the Germans have succumbed to this nonsense.
    All these countries are ruled by myopic fearties in a misapplication of the precautionary principle.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    DavidL said:

    Blimey, you are on a roll @Cyclefree

    Another excellent header, even for the slow of reading.

    One tiny quibble. The fact that the government wins the vast majority of JRs is rather a point in the government's favour. What I see through my friends is that many cases seem to be arguing points that have been argued and then determined by superior courts repeatedly. Immigration appeals tend to be whether or not the facts of the particular case in some way make it different from the clear principles set out in decided cases. The answer is usually no.

    The government's concern is that there is a very considerable cost in running these cases for which they are usually paying all 3 sides, the petitioner, the respondent and of course the court with zero opportunity for recovery. There are also a lot of incidental costs, so, for example, a plane stopper will mean in excess of £10k of costs written off for the immigrant and his or her escort.

    It also means the system remains clogged up with cases that are not determined because so much time passes new applications in changed circumstances can start the circus all over again.

    This is a recent decision in a case run by a friend of mine. https://scotcourts.gov.uk/docs/default-source/cos-general-docs/pdf-docs-for-opinions/2021csoh010.pdf?sfvrsn=0

    He won and the decision of the Upper Tribunal was quashed and will have to be reconsidered. Well done Stephen.

    What I find disturbing is that this applicant applied for asylum on 21st June 2013. I mean, what the hell? How can this still be before the courts (and now requiring another hearing) nearly 8 years later? We do need to stop this. If this person is entitled to asylum he should have had it about 7 years ago. If he's not he should have been extradited at least 6 years ago.

    Having a legal system that is so bogged down that it just doesn't work really isn't fair on anyone; the applicants or the British taxpayer.

    Not that the gov helps with the bogging it down. But funded and faster helps everyone, including them.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,317
    Struggling to care about this one, and failing miserably.

    Throughout my lifetime, I cannot remember a single protest that accomplished anything other than to irritate everyone who couldn't get out of its way. They aren't some magical hugely important central plank of our democracy; they're an escape valve for people who can't accept that they lost the argument at the last election. They're a blight to the rest of us and the police are far too indulgent of them.

    A million or thereabouts marched for foxhunting, against the Iraq War, against Brexit, against austerity, etc. Other than minor second order impacts to London's economy, there was no discernible effect, nor did I ever seriously expect there to be. So why should I care if those rights are impeded?

    The poll tax was overturned because people started rioting, not orderly protesting. And if the government ever does go full-on fascist and start cancelling elections, do I really think even ten million people chanting and waving placards is going to make the slightest bit of difference? No. So, why do I care?
  • alednamalednam Posts: 122
    I didn't agree with Sumption about how a pandemic should be managed. But he got it right when he pointed out that what we saw on Saturday (leading to some calls for Cressida Dick’s resignation) was the consequence of the police’s having a duty to apply the law in a context in which the government had managed to legislate to ensure that no political protests were legitimate so long as coronavirus restrictions stood. Coronoavirus restrictions will be removed before long (presumably). And the government is now finding news way to legislate to curb political protests. I hope many MPs will stand opposed to some of these ways as Sumption finds himself opposed.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,012
    Germany is suspending its use of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over fresh reports of dangerous blood clots in connection with the shot.

    The country's Health Ministry said the decision was taken as a "precaution" and on the advice of Germany's national vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation of the cases.

    In a statement, the ministry said the European Medicines Agency would decide "whether and how the new information will affect the authorisation of the vaccine."

    This stinks now
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.

    I don't think there's any need to worry. The cavalry is just over the hill, in about 20 days we're going to get deliveries of Novavax and Moderna, the former will dwarf our Pfizer deliveries very quickly as we have bought 100% of domestic capacity until all 60m doses are delivered and Novavax are a specialist vaccine company unlike AZ who had little to no expertise in the field when they got the Oxford deal. It's a bit like Gandalf arriving with the Rohirrim after 5 days in the battle of Helm's Deep, we know he's on the way and ultimately will lead us to victory.
    If we do 20 days at ~400,000 (or more) a day (which seems very plausible on he rumours) we will do another 8-10m adults, on top of the 24m done already. 50% of the country will be vaxxed, at least. Another surge after that means herd immunity by May?
    If we get there, and your numbers seem sensible to me, then the government will be under huge pressure to accelerate the roadmap. I suspect it will get around it by declaring scores of events to be 'test events' – Royal Ascot, England vs Scotland at the Euros, etc etc.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,914
    Floater said:

    Germany is suspending its use of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over fresh reports of dangerous blood clots in connection with the shot.

    The country's Health Ministry said the decision was taken as a "precaution" and on the advice of Germany's national vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation of the cases.

    In a statement, the ministry said the European Medicines Agency would decide "whether and how the new information will affect the authorisation of the vaccine."

    This stinks now

    So that's actually scientists making the call? Or are they doing so with guns pointed at their heads?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.

    I don't think there's any need to worry. The cavalry is just over the hill, in about 20 days we're going to get deliveries of Novavax and Moderna, the former will dwarf our Pfizer deliveries very quickly as we have bought 100% of domestic capacity until all 60m doses are delivered and Novavax are a specialist vaccine company unlike AZ who had little to no expertise in the field when they got the Oxford deal. It's a bit like Gandalf arriving with the Rohirrim after 5 days in the battle of Helm's Deep, we know he's on the way and ultimately will lead us to victory.
    If we do 20 days at ~400,000 (or more) a day (which seems very plausible on he rumours) we will do another 8-10m adults, on top of the 24m done already. 50% of the country will be vaxxed, at least. Another surge after that means herd immunity by May?
    I think we're geared up for 3m first and 3m second doses per week at peak capacity right now, we should hit that rate late this week and into the next 3-5 weeks from what I understand. Both Pfizer and AZ claim to have resolved most of the manufacturing issues that plagued them through February and the early part of this month. It takes time from that to actually certifying the doses and getting them into people's arms and that's where we are at the moment.

    When you add in that Moderna will commence deliveries in the first week of April and there is a very large initial delivery of Novavax due the day it receives approval and then ongoing exclusive domestic supply we know April is going to be an absolutely huge month. We're genuinely just around the corner from victory, I haven't been this hopeful in just under a year since the start of the first lockdown.
    Great news. And thanks for keeping us updated

    Going back to the mad news from Germany, it occurs to me that there must be millions of sensible Germans, non anti-vaxxers, who were eagerly anticipating their jab (even the "quasi ineffective" AZ), and now they won't get it, as arranged. They must be livid. Like this person:



    https://twitter.com/philleehh/status/1371474862099865601?s=20

    I know how much I was looking forward to my jab, after this dreadful year. It was hope and light in the dark. Now I am eagerly awaiting my immunity, in 2-3 weeks, when I can start to live again. The days tick by slowly, but they are ticking by.

    If the UK government had made a crass, illogical decision like this, preventing me having that jab on invisible scientific evidence, I would have been incandescent with anger. It would have been enough to make me vote for anyone but the govt.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,035
    Floater said:

    Germany is suspending its use of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over fresh reports of dangerous blood clots in connection with the shot.

    The country's Health Ministry said the decision was taken as a "precaution" and on the advice of Germany's national vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation of the cases.

    In a statement, the ministry said the European Medicines Agency would decide "whether and how the new information will affect the authorisation of the vaccine."

    This stinks now

    The EMA has already decided?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695
    Floater said:

    Germany is suspending its use of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over fresh reports of dangerous blood clots in connection with the shot.

    The country's Health Ministry said the decision was taken as a "precaution" and on the advice of Germany's national vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation of the cases.

    In a statement, the ministry said the European Medicines Agency would decide "whether and how the new information will affect the authorisation of the vaccine."

    This stinks now

    At some point, the European press IS going to wake up to just how many extra deaths this is causing.

    "Oops - we just killed Oma. Still, better safe than sorry, eh?"
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020
    Floater said:

    Germany is suspending its use of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over fresh reports of dangerous blood clots in connection with the shot.

    The country's Health Ministry said the decision was taken as a "precaution" and on the advice of Germany's national vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation of the cases.

    In a statement, the ministry said the European Medicines Agency would decide "whether and how the new information will affect the authorisation of the vaccine."

    This stinks now

    Stinks in what respect? Yes the innumerate stupidity and herd mentality stinks. Is that what you mean? Or something else?
  • alednamalednam Posts: 122
    CycleFree is right to say that this government has sought at all stages to avoid scrutiny and challenge. He omits to say that Downing Street has appointed a Press Secretary apparently willing to go to the lengths of a Trumpian Press Secretary to ensure that the Prime Minister himself avoids scrutiny or challenge.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,280
    Mr. Mark, aye. This 'precautionary principle' nonsense is akin to banning cars a a precaution against traffic accidents.

    Bizarre behaviour from nearby countries.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,137
    DavidL said:

    Blimey, you are on a roll @Cyclefree

    Another excellent header, even for the slow of reading.

    One tiny quibble. The fact that the government wins the vast majority of JRs is rather a point in the government's favour. What I see through my friends is that many cases seem to be arguing points that have been argued and then determined by superior courts repeatedly. Immigration appeals tend to be whether or not the facts of the particular case in some way make it different from the clear principles set out in decided cases. The answer is usually no.

    The government's concern is that there is a very considerable cost in running these cases for which they are usually paying all 3 sides, the petitioner, the respondent and of course the court with zero opportunity for recovery. There are also a lot of incidental costs, so, for example, a plane stopper will mean in excess of £10k of costs written off for the immigrant and his or her escort.

    It also means the system remains clogged up with cases that are not determined because so much time passes new applications in changed circumstances can start the circus all over again.

    This is a recent decision in a case run by a friend of mine. https://scotcourts.gov.uk/docs/default-source/cos-general-docs/pdf-docs-for-opinions/2021csoh010.pdf?sfvrsn=0

    He won and the decision of the Upper Tribunal was quashed and will have to be reconsidered. Well done Stephen.

    What I find disturbing is that this applicant applied for asylum on 21st June 2013. I mean, what the hell? How can this still be before the courts (and now requiring another hearing) nearly 8 years later? We do need to stop this. If this person is entitled to asylum he should have had it about 7 years ago. If he's not he should have been extradited at least 6 years ago.

    Having a legal system that is so bogged down that it just doesn't work really isn't fair on anyone; the applicants or the British taxpayer.

    The problem with asylum is that is the policy - refuse applications despite the merits of the case, set absurdly difficult to reach standards of evidence and paperwork, and only grant asylum (or leave to remain) at the end of a lengthy appeals process.

    The government, all the way back to the Blair years at least, do not want to risk anything that might look like providing a safe haven to refugees. We'd stick out like a sore thumb as a beacon of hope in that case. Couldn't be risking it.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,669

    Floater said:

    Germany is suspending its use of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over fresh reports of dangerous blood clots in connection with the shot.

    The country's Health Ministry said the decision was taken as a "precaution" and on the advice of Germany's national vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation of the cases.

    In a statement, the ministry said the European Medicines Agency would decide "whether and how the new information will affect the authorisation of the vaccine."

    This stinks now

    Stinks in what respect? Yes the innumerate stupidity and herd mentality stinks. Is that what you mean? Or something else?
    I thought Germany had a lot of form in stupid decision making as elections approached and other parties seemed to be doing well.

    Germany's lack of a sane energy policy having banned Nuclear following Fukushima 10 years ago is a great example of over reacting to solve a political issue.

    Opening up their borders is a second one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,437
    Hard to disagree with any of the header.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695

    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.

    These are Saturday's numbers, when we were still at the weekend tail-end of limited supplies. Don't expect tomorrow to be much better. By Wednesday/Thursday though, we should be "going gangbusters".
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.

    I don't think there's any need to worry. The cavalry is just over the hill, in about 20 days we're going to get deliveries of Novavax and Moderna, the former will dwarf our Pfizer deliveries very quickly as we have bought 100% of domestic capacity until all 60m doses are delivered and Novavax are a specialist vaccine company unlike AZ who had little to no expertise in the field when they got the Oxford deal. It's a bit like Gandalf arriving with the Rohirrim after 5 days in the battle of Helm's Deep, we know he's on the way and ultimately will lead us to victory.
    If we do 20 days at ~400,000 (or more) a day (which seems very plausible on he rumours) we will do another 8-10m adults, on top of the 24m done already. 50% of the country will be vaxxed, at least. Another surge after that means herd immunity by May?
    I think we're geared up for 3m first and 3m second doses per week at peak capacity right now, we should hit that rate late this week and into the next 3-5 weeks from what I understand. Both Pfizer and AZ claim to have resolved most of the manufacturing issues that plagued them through February and the early part of this month. It takes time from that to actually certifying the doses and getting them into people's arms and that's where we are at the moment.

    When you add in that Moderna will commence deliveries in the first week of April and there is a very large initial delivery of Novavax due the day it receives approval and then ongoing exclusive domestic supply we know April is going to be an absolutely huge month. We're genuinely just around the corner from victory, I haven't been this hopeful in just under a year since the start of the first lockdown.
    If there is a large delivery of Novavax awaiting approval why is it taking so long to approve? It seems the Pfizer jab took less time than this to approve.

    Or is it in that waiting period between manufacture and being certified to use anyway, so even if approved it couldn't be used yet?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,474
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.

    I don't think there's any need to worry. The cavalry is just over the hill, in about 20 days we're going to get deliveries of Novavax and Moderna, the former will dwarf our Pfizer deliveries very quickly as we have bought 100% of domestic capacity until all 60m doses are delivered and Novavax are a specialist vaccine company unlike AZ who had little to no expertise in the field when they got the Oxford deal. It's a bit like Gandalf arriving with the Rohirrim after 5 days in the battle of Helm's Deep, we know he's on the way and ultimately will lead us to victory.
    I'm fascinated as to which one I'll be getting.
    I'm crossing my fingers for getting the Novavax as it's highly effective and being manufactured very close to home indeed. #Teesside. I'm of the age where I'll likely get it beginning of May, so seems like a real possibility.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    tlg86 said:

    Floater said:

    Germany is suspending its use of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over fresh reports of dangerous blood clots in connection with the shot.

    The country's Health Ministry said the decision was taken as a "precaution" and on the advice of Germany's national vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation of the cases.

    In a statement, the ministry said the European Medicines Agency would decide "whether and how the new information will affect the authorisation of the vaccine."

    This stinks now

    So that's actually scientists making the call? Or are they doing so with guns pointed at their heads?
    It may well be scientists but given 10m doses in the UK what data could they possibly have better than that speaking to safety?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,381
    Endillion said:

    Struggling to care about this one, and failing miserably.

    Throughout my lifetime, I cannot remember a single protest that accomplished anything other than to irritate everyone who couldn't get out of its way. They aren't some magical hugely important central plank of our democracy; they're an escape valve for people who can't accept that they lost the argument at the last election. They're a blight to the rest of us and the police are far too indulgent of them.

    A million or thereabouts marched for foxhunting, against the Iraq War, against Brexit, against austerity, etc. Other than minor second order impacts to London's economy, there was no discernible effect, nor did I ever seriously expect there to be. So why should I care if those rights are impeded?

    The poll tax was overturned because people started rioting, not orderly protesting. And if the government ever does go full-on fascist and start cancelling elections, do I really think even ten million people chanting and waving placards is going to make the slightest bit of difference? No. So, why do I care?

    I really don't agree. I have very rarely ever taken part in protests but it would be absurd to argue that they do not change the conversation and way people think about things.

    If you think about the protected characteristics in the Equality Act, gender, race, disability, sexual orientation the general public's views have changed massively over my lifetime and this has largely happened due to protest. Even views on sexual reassignment are changing in part as a result of protest.

    Topics such as global warming and the environment have largely been kept in the news by protest. This is how democracy works. And this is a good thing that should not be overly restricted as it would be by this bill even if it can be annoying.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    alednam said:

    CycleFree is right to say that this government has sought at all stages to avoid scrutiny and challenge. He omits to say that Downing Street has appointed a Press Secretary apparently willing to go to the lengths of a Trumpian Press Secretary to ensure that the Prime Minister himself avoids scrutiny or challenge.

    You do realise he's done the opposite right? Having an on-camera Press Secretary is something all Presidents have done but Trump tried to diminish the role and went periods without a Press Secretary, which other Presidents didn't do.

    This notion that on-camera scrutiny is "Trumpian" just shows some people are so ignorant they can't connect further than "America = Trump" in their critiques.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,927
    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    Germany is suspending its use of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over fresh reports of dangerous blood clots in connection with the shot.

    The country's Health Ministry said the decision was taken as a "precaution" and on the advice of Germany's national vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation of the cases.

    In a statement, the ministry said the European Medicines Agency would decide "whether and how the new information will affect the authorisation of the vaccine."

    This stinks now

    The EMA has already decided?
    As williamglenn pointed out yesterday, one unnoticed byproduct of the AstraZeneca clusterficken is that European medicines regulation is now in a state of anarchy. The EMA is either ignored or bullied. Meanwhile individual EU countries are splitting off to do private deals for vaccines, some of them unapproved by the EMA, like Sputnik. They are already using them.

    At the same time countries like Italy are impounding legally contracted vaccines, under new EU medicine laws, yet suspending the use of the same vaccines in Italy.

    "Farce" doesn't really cut it, as a description.
    C'est l'Europe farcie.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,914
    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    Germany is suspending its use of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over fresh reports of dangerous blood clots in connection with the shot.

    The country's Health Ministry said the decision was taken as a "precaution" and on the advice of Germany's national vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation of the cases.

    In a statement, the ministry said the European Medicines Agency would decide "whether and how the new information will affect the authorisation of the vaccine."

    This stinks now

    The EMA has already decided?
    As williamglenn pointed out yesterday, one unnoticed byproduct of the AstraZeneca clusterficken is that European medicines regulation is now in a state of anarchy. The EMA is either ignored or bullied. Meanwhile individual EU countries are splitting off to do private deals for vaccines, some of them unapproved by the EMA, like Sputnik. They are already using them.

    At the same time countries like Italy are impounding legally contracted vaccines, under new EU medicine laws, yet suspending the use of the same vaccines in Italy.

    "Farce" doesn't really cut it, as a description.
    Dare I say, more Europe would actually be better in this scenario.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,437

    Leon said:
    Like sheep, they are following each other. Monumental folly.
    The problem is that there's a domino effect.

    Norway suspends Astra-Zeneca. People worry more.

    Each country that suspends it, makes other countries more likely to stop using it. There's this feedback loop that gets started.

    And it's very hard to stop, especially in countries where vaccine scepticism is already high.

    It will - of course - cause hundreds of additional deaths and tens of billions of lost earnings.

    In a decade's time, people will be staggered and wonder what all the fuss was about. But for now, the voices of unreason are the loudest.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,065

    IPSOS has Labour polling quite well, just the Tories are polling even better!!!!

    38% is historically good for Labour, it's just unfortunate the Tories are currently so far ahead

    IPSOS has Labour polling quite well, just the Tories are polling even better!!!!

    38% is historically good for Labour, it's just unfortunate the Tories are currently so far ahead

    38% is not a bad vote share for Labour - particularly in the context of Scotland having knocked circa 2% of the party's GB vote share relative to pre-2015.This is a higher level than achieved at elections by Callaghan,Foot, Kinnock, Millband, and Brown. Moreover, Blair only managed 36% in 2005 whilst Wilson matched 38% in Feb 1974.
    45% is good for the Tories - but likely to be flattered by the pandemic vaccination bounce.
    This poll implies 23 Labour gains from the Tories on the basis of UNS.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,087
    edited March 15
    Incidentally today might prove to be the day when fewer than 100 people die from COVID. Morbid to celebrate, but more morbid not to.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,012

    Floater said:

    Germany is suspending its use of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over fresh reports of dangerous blood clots in connection with the shot.

    The country's Health Ministry said the decision was taken as a "precaution" and on the advice of Germany's national vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation of the cases.

    In a statement, the ministry said the European Medicines Agency would decide "whether and how the new information will affect the authorisation of the vaccine."

    This stinks now

    Stinks in what respect? Yes the innumerate stupidity and herd mentality stinks. Is that what you mean? Or something else?
    It seems co - ordinated

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    Germany is suspending its use of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over fresh reports of dangerous blood clots in connection with the shot.

    The country's Health Ministry said the decision was taken as a "precaution" and on the advice of Germany's national vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation of the cases.

    In a statement, the ministry said the European Medicines Agency would decide "whether and how the new information will affect the authorisation of the vaccine."

    This stinks now

    The EMA has already decided?
    Indeed, they released a statement on it recently saying that it's not an issue. I honestly think these countries have got real, deep seated issues with medical science that we don't seem to have. I don't understand how any scientist can look at the available data and make these decisions. It's been a few years since I was a chemistry student but we also worked on the basis of statistical significance and none of the data we've been presented with suggests a causal link between the AZ vaccine and blood clots.

    Honestly, I'm shocked as to the standards of science being applied across Europe at the moment.
    The bit that doesn't make sense is that this happens al the time with medicines - report of a reaction etc. So the first thing you do is check the incidence rate vs the rest of the population.

    What they seem to be doing is:

    - I've heard there may be an issue
    - So we are halting the vaccinations
    - Left a message for the Norwegians to call me back when they have a moment
    - Lunch
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.

    I don't think there's any need to worry. The cavalry is just over the hill, in about 20 days we're going to get deliveries of Novavax and Moderna, the former will dwarf our Pfizer deliveries very quickly as we have bought 100% of domestic capacity until all 60m doses are delivered and Novavax are a specialist vaccine company unlike AZ who had little to no expertise in the field when they got the Oxford deal. It's a bit like Gandalf arriving with the Rohirrim after 5 days in the battle of Helm's Deep, we know he's on the way and ultimately will lead us to victory.
    If we do 20 days at ~400,000 (or more) a day (which seems very plausible on he rumours) we will do another 8-10m adults, on top of the 24m done already. 50% of the country will be vaxxed, at least. Another surge after that means herd immunity by May?
    I think we're geared up for 3m first and 3m second doses per week at peak capacity right now, we should hit that rate late this week and into the next 3-5 weeks from what I understand. Both Pfizer and AZ claim to have resolved most of the manufacturing issues that plagued them through February and the early part of this month. It takes time from that to actually certifying the doses and getting them into people's arms and that's where we are at the moment.

    When you add in that Moderna will commence deliveries in the first week of April and there is a very large initial delivery of Novavax due the day it receives approval and then ongoing exclusive domestic supply we know April is going to be an absolutely huge month. We're genuinely just around the corner from victory, I haven't been this hopeful in just under a year since the start of the first lockdown.
    If there is a large delivery of Novavax awaiting approval why is it taking so long to approve? It seems the Pfizer jab took less time than this to approve.

    Or is it in that waiting period between manufacture and being certified to use anyway, so even if approved it couldn't be used yet?
    It's in a rolling review process with the MHRA just as the Pfizer vaccine was. Novavax made their final submission last week, the preliminary read out wasn't enough data to get emergency approval, it was more a statement for shareholders that they had a viable vaccine. From the final submission to approval took about 2 weeks for Pfizer iirc, I think it will be about 2-3 weeks for Novavax as the data isn't as clear cut wrt variants and stuff which might need a bit more work that Pfizer didn't need given the lack of variants at the time.

    AIUI approval will come in the final week of March and first deliveries in the second week of April.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    Every antivaxxer in the EU now will for years now be saying that it is smart for people not to be vaccinated.

    Due to the precautionary principle.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,914
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:
    Like sheep, they are following each other. Monumental folly.
    The problem is that there's a domino effect.

    Norway suspends Astra-Zeneca. People worry more.

    Each country that suspends it, makes other countries more likely to stop using it. There's this feedback loop that gets started.

    And it's very hard to stop, especially in countries where vaccine scepticism is already high.

    It will - of course - cause hundreds of additional deaths and tens of billions of lost earnings.

    In a decade's time, people will be staggered and wonder what all the fuss was about. But for now, the voices of unreason are the loudest.
    And yet, not for one moment are we expecting our government to follow suit.

    Is that purely because it's viewed as being our vaccine?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 6,630
    OT the Gambling Commission is looking for a new boss.

    Neil McArthur, Chief Executive of the Gambling Commission, has announced that he will be leaving the organisation after nearly 15 years. He joined the Commission in 2006 and was General Counsel before rising to the role of Chief Executive in 2018.
    https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/news-action-and-statistics/news/2021/Gambling-Commission-CEO-announces-departure.aspx

    Let us hope the next chief knows something about betting and is not obsessed by age checks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.

    I don't think there's any need to worry. The cavalry is just over the hill, in about 20 days we're going to get deliveries of Novavax and Moderna, the former will dwarf our Pfizer deliveries very quickly as we have bought 100% of domestic capacity until all 60m doses are delivered and Novavax are a specialist vaccine company unlike AZ who had little to no expertise in the field when they got the Oxford deal. It's a bit like Gandalf arriving with the Rohirrim after 5 days in the battle of Helm's Deep, we know he's on the way and ultimately will lead us to victory.
    If we do 20 days at ~400,000 (or more) a day (which seems very plausible on he rumours) we will do another 8-10m adults, on top of the 24m done already. 50% of the country will be vaxxed, at least. Another surge after that means herd immunity by May?
    I think we're geared up for 3m first and 3m second doses per week at peak capacity right now, we should hit that rate late this week and into the next 3-5 weeks from what I understand. Both Pfizer and AZ claim to have resolved most of the manufacturing issues that plagued them through February and the early part of this month. It takes time from that to actually certifying the doses and getting them into people's arms and that's where we are at the moment.

    When you add in that Moderna will commence deliveries in the first week of April and there is a very large initial delivery of Novavax due the day it receives approval and then ongoing exclusive domestic supply we know April is going to be an absolutely huge month. We're genuinely just around the corner from victory, I haven't been this hopeful in just under a year since the start of the first lockdown.
    If there is a large delivery of Novavax awaiting approval why is it taking so long to approve? It seems the Pfizer jab took less time than this to approve.

    Or is it in that waiting period between manufacture and being certified to use anyway, so even if approved it couldn't be used yet?
    It's in a rolling review process with the MHRA just as the Pfizer vaccine was. Novavax made their final submission last week, the preliminary read out wasn't enough data to get emergency approval, it was more a statement for shareholders that they had a viable vaccine. From the final submission to approval took about 2 weeks for Pfizer iirc, I think it will be about 2-3 weeks for Novavax as the data isn't as clear cut wrt variants and stuff which might need a bit more work that Pfizer didn't need given the lack of variants at the time.

    AIUI approval will come in the final week of March and first deliveries in the second week of April.
    Makes sense. So submission came a long time after the press conference.

    Thanks for the update.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,927

    Every antivaxxer in the EU now will for years now be saying that it is smart for people not to be vaccinated.

    Due to the precautionary principle.
    If only Tom Lehrer knew about the precautionary principle.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,437
    edited March 15

    Leon said:
    How many German politicians have shares in BioNTech?
    Oh come on @williamglenn.

    Other than us, how many developed countries - outside of the EU - are actually using AstraZeneca today?

    I can think of one: Canada.

    Who else?

    Is everyone in BioNTech's pocket?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.

    I don't think there's any need to worry. The cavalry is just over the hill, in about 20 days we're going to get deliveries of Novavax and Moderna, the former will dwarf our Pfizer deliveries very quickly as we have bought 100% of domestic capacity until all 60m doses are delivered and Novavax are a specialist vaccine company unlike AZ who had little to no expertise in the field when they got the Oxford deal. It's a bit like Gandalf arriving with the Rohirrim after 5 days in the battle of Helm's Deep, we know he's on the way and ultimately will lead us to victory.
    I'm fascinated as to which one I'll be getting.
    If you're under 50 then I think they will use Moderna or Novavax on a six week dosing gap that will eventually go down to the recommended 2-4 week gap for those who get it right at the end. I think the government will want to avoid AZ for younger cohorts because of the long 12 week wait for the second dose leading to missed appointments after the June final unlockdown.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,137

    Incidentally today might prove to be the day when fewer than 100 people die from COVID. Morbid to celebrate, but more morbid not to.

    Daily Covid deaths were last below 100 on 9th October 2020. A long five and a bit months ago.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,381
    geoffw said:

    Every antivaxxer in the EU now will for years now be saying that it is smart for people not to be vaccinated.

    Due to the precautionary principle.
    If only Tom Lehrer knew about the precautionary principle.

    First we got the bomb and that was good,
    Because we love peace and motherhood...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,437
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:
    Like sheep, they are following each other. Monumental folly.
    The problem is that there's a domino effect.

    Norway suspends Astra-Zeneca. People worry more.

    Each country that suspends it, makes other countries more likely to stop using it. There's this feedback loop that gets started.

    And it's very hard to stop, especially in countries where vaccine scepticism is already high.

    It will - of course - cause hundreds of additional deaths and tens of billions of lost earnings.

    In a decade's time, people will be staggered and wonder what all the fuss was about. But for now, the voices of unreason are the loudest.
    And yet, not for one moment are we expecting our government to follow suit.

    Is that purely because it's viewed as being our vaccine?
    (1) The UK doesn't have quite the same crazy anti-vax thing as some other places. E.g., not a single CV19 vaccine has positive public approval in France.

    (2) There's a "dangerous dogs bite" thing here. Because there's a story about people dying of blood clots after AZ, doctors are on the look out for blood clots. And if you look for them, you will see them.

    (3) AZ has been dogged by miserable publicity from the start.

    (4) And, sure, AZ being British probably helps with acceptance in the UK.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,927
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    Every antivaxxer in the EU now will for years now be saying that it is smart for people not to be vaccinated.

    Due to the precautionary principle.
    If only Tom Lehrer knew about the precautionary principle.

    First we got the bomb and that was good,
    Because we love peace and motherhood...
    He's still with us, happily

  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 427
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I’ll admit to being slightly underwhelmed by today’s vax numbers. I’d hoped to be well north of 350k today, paving the way for a 650k later in the week. We’ve got a lot of catching up to do after a very slow early March.

    I don't think there's any need to worry. The cavalry is just over the hill, in about 20 days we're going to get deliveries of Novavax and Moderna, the former will dwarf our Pfizer deliveries very quickly as we have bought 100% of domestic capacity until all 60m doses are delivered and Novavax are a specialist vaccine company unlike AZ who had little to no expertise in the field when they got the Oxford deal. It's a bit like Gandalf arriving with the Rohirrim after 5 days in the battle of Helm's Deep, we know he's on the way and ultimately will lead us to victory.
    If we do 20 days at ~400,000 (or more) a day (which seems very plausible on he rumours) we will do another 8-10m adults, on top of the 24m done already. 50% of the country will be vaxxed, at least. Another surge after that means herd immunity by May?
    I think we're geared up for 3m first and 3m second doses per week at peak capacity right now, we should hit that rate late this week and into the next 3-5 weeks from what I understand. Both Pfizer and AZ claim to have resolved most of the manufacturing issues that plagued them through February and the early part of this month. It takes time from that to actually certifying the doses and getting them into people's arms and that's where we are at the moment.

    When you add in that Moderna will commence deliveries in the first week of April and there is a very large initial delivery of Novavax due the day it receives approval and then ongoing exclusive domestic supply we know April is going to be an absolutely huge month. We're genuinely just around the corner from victory, I haven't been this hopeful in just under a year since the start of the first lockdown.
    Great news. And thanks for keeping us updated

    Going back to the mad news from Germany, it occurs to me that there must be millions of sensible Germans, non anti-vaxxers, who were eagerly anticipating their jab (even the "quasi ineffective" AZ), and now they won't get it, as arranged. They must be livid. Like this person:



    https://twitter.com/philleehh/status/1371474862099865601?s=20

    I know how much I was looking forward to my jab, after this dreadful year. It was hope and light in the dark. Now I am eagerly awaiting my immunity, in 2-3 weeks, when I can start to live again. The days tick by slowly, but they are ticking by.

    If the UK government had made a crass, illogical decision like this, preventing me having that jab on invisible scientific evidence, I would have been incandescent with anger. It would have been enough to make me vote for anyone but the govt.

    When the Irish did it yesterday I saw someone tweet that their AZ vaccine appointment got cancelled 5 minutes after it was due to happen, while in the queue. Madness, and I'd be outraged.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    Germany is suspending its use of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over fresh reports of dangerous blood clots in connection with the shot.

    The country's Health Ministry said the decision was taken as a "precaution" and on the advice of Germany's national vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation of the cases.

    In a statement, the ministry said the European Medicines Agency would decide "whether and how the new information will affect the authorisation of the vaccine."

    This stinks now

    The EMA has already decided?
    Indeed, they released a statement on it recently saying that it's not an issue. I honestly think these countries have got real, deep seated issues with medical science that we don't seem to have. I don't understand how any scientist can look at the available data and make these decisions. It's been a few years since I was a chemistry student but we also worked on the basis of statistical significance and none of the data we've been presented with suggests a causal link between the AZ vaccine and blood clots.

    Honestly, I'm shocked as to the standards of science being applied across Europe at the moment.
    Science is third, behind politics and religion.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,437
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:
    How many German politicians have shares in BioNTech?
    Oh come on @williamglenn.

    Other than us, how many developed countries - outside of the EU - are actually using AstraZeneca today?

    I can think of one: Canada.

    Who else?

    Is everyone in BioNTech's pocket?
    By the way, the second story in Canada right now is a different story slagging off the AstraZeneca vaccine: https://globalnews.ca/tag/coronavirus/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    Floater said:
    Fascinating. Tallies with my very rough back-of-envelope figures for Ireland yesterday. If Ireland pauses AZ for just a week, maybe 6-10 people will die, 30-50 go into ICU, who would otherwise be fine - and many more will get Long Covid. Tiny numbers, but Ireland is a tiny country. And these are completely avoidable tragedies. And that is just one week.

    Switch it around for the UK. We've vaxxed 10m with AZ in 3 months. That has surely saved thousands of lives and many thousands of hospitalisations. To justify stopping that, we would need to see carnage from side effects. We are not.







  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560
    Probably what's happening - bureaucrats back covering, politicians dithering:

    https://twitter.com/BergAslak/status/1371480143089258496?s=20
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577

    We have made way, way too many laws recently. We could do worse than starting from the principle that everything law created in the last 18 months should be rescinded. If there are any decent ones in there we can have a public debate about retaining them.

    Those of us who care about liberty, need to make sure the government is not using the pandemic as an excuse to keep draconian legislation on the books afterwards, to be used in other situations.

    I can accept that war and pandemic are genuine reasons for authoritarianism, for the sake of the country, but it needs to be made very clear to those in charge that such powers are only ever for exceptional circumstances.

    It’s to the government’s credit that they didn’t invoke any measures under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, an overarching piece of legislation that’s never been fit for purpose and is ripe for repeal.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,850
    Good piece, and I agree with nearly all of it.

    This bill has the feel of some of the more unpleasant / authoritarian stuff that we saw under New Labour and Theresa May. I think in the coalition the LDs were a protection in some measure. It looks like a further corrosion of policing by consent.

    In "relevant impact", relevant is also lethal, as a chameleon word. Impact on whom? "Serious impact", properly scoped, would be more reasonable. I am reminded of the justification by Extinction Rebellion that there cause was so important that people being blocked from their cancer treatment appointments was acceptable.

    And "causing offence" has no place whatsover in a legal test here. Did we not just get shot of that in one of the public protection laws from the Major era?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:
    How many German politicians have shares in BioNTech?
    Oh come on @williamglenn.

    Other than us, how many developed countries - outside of the EU - are actually using AstraZeneca today?

    I can think of one: Canada.

    Who else?

    Is everyone in BioNTech's pocket?
    Obviously that isn't the case, however, there does seem to be a convenient overabundance of caution in Europe over the AZ vaccine that isn't being applied to Pfizer despite having an identical rate of side effects and identical rate of post vaccination blood clots (which is, unsurprisingly.

    It really does seem as though the countries of the EU have decided to "suffocate" AZ as Mario Draghi put it so eloquently a couple of weeks ago. They're getting their revenge by purposefully muddying the waters for the AZ vaccine and trying to tarnish AZ's reputation. It's really the only explanation that makes sense right now.

    Australia is rolling out AZ btw, successfully too.
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