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Although Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge this is not in places where it matters – polit
Although Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge this is not in places where it matters – politicalbetting.com
One of the things that is rarely done in polling analysis is to look at geographical breakdowns breakdown like in the chart above based on the latest Opinium poll.
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The London numbers are all the more remarkable when you consider Boris was a reasonably well regarded Mayor of London who won two terms there. Looks like Starmer would have been a good candidate for that job himself. But PM? He's looking like the Labour IDS - a leader who won't get to fight an election.
And uninspiring.
John Smith was also thoroughly Scottish so he had a massive advantage over Starmer there: he could attract Labour support where it was needed.
I can’t see Labour winning a General Election or even (to pick up one of Mr Smithson’s previous posts) preventing an outright Conservative win.
What on earth do Labour do about this? They have leader who seems decent but who is electorally unattractive and uninspiring.
Labour's own pustule is now disfiguring their Party. That of bat-shit crazy election-losing Corbynism. Which will outlive the man, because it essentially involves putting front and centre a body of causes which are of no interest to those swing maybe-Labour voters that Blair could hoover up. And at its core is the notion that the Tories need to spend far, far more money. A notion that will become patently absurd on Wednesday when the Tory Chancellor will demonstrate just how tight the fiscal position will be for many years to come, whoever the PM.
However you rate Boris's handling of the pandemic, its wider implication for domestic politics is that it has shot Labour's fox. The Labour Party will have to go away and ditch most of his cherished spending wish-list. And when it does that, many of its activists will wonder "What's the point? We might as well go and join the bloody Tories if that is all we can do in power..."
Since he and Carrie showed Cummings, Cain and Oliver the door, Boris has become markedly better. He has grown in stature: ending the petulant internal anarchism which was such an Opposition mindset and is now displaying gravitas and sangfroid. He is looking like a genuinely great Prime Minister. And he has parked his bus right on top of Labour’s lawn.
I just can’t see what Labour can do about this. I suspect they will be out of power for at least another decade.
My takeaway from the header is that the data seem to tally up with Labour's remaining bases of strength: principally core cities, university towns, the very poorest areas (South Wales valleys, the Durham coast,) and towns with large concentrations of voters of South Asian descent. I think Starmer probably does reasonably well versus Johnson amongst Remain leaning, urban exile trendies in the commuter belt as well, but they're too evenly spread to make a difference in most places, even where they are more concentrated then what's left of the Liberal Democrats are often in a better position to challenge, and the large majority of Tory seats in the South are safe in any event.
Now, it's probably going to be more than two years until the country next goes to the polls, a lot can happen in the meantime, and (especially if things go badly with the economic recovery) it's not at all inconceivable that the Conservatives could see their majority wiped out. But the likelihood of Labour winning outright appears remote in the extreme, and in that case Labour's weakness as a minority Government and its choice of coalition/confidence partners gives the Tories a valuable line of attack come the next election campaign.
But I wonder what the figures would be for gross favourable lead rather than net favourable lead which seems historically more reliable?
Would someone be able to do a chart of region split for gross favourable lead?
What I expect that we will see in the budget, despite soaring deficits, is a generous package to see people out of lockdown and to kick start the recovery with a particular emphasis on spending in the north and midlands. We will see funds being set aside to kick start other industries in the way that the government did with the vaccines to create the jobs of tomorrow. The Hammond wing of the Tories, in so far as it still exists, are likely to be quietly appalled just as the Labour left were appalled by so much that Blair did but Boris won't care.
SKS will be left looking for small groups that have been overlooked or picking at the edges in a way that seems to endorse the broad thrust of government policy. It is not a good look and repeats the flawed approach he has taken to lockdown and the virus.
Quite possible.
Especially the final paragraph.
The problem is, he remains incapable of proper strategic thought, unable to understand complex issues, and a shocking judge of character.
And while those are not needed for leadership, they are needed for good governance.
Since he will never develop those - you have them, or you don’t - he needs to appoint a capable deputy in the cabinet who does have them. But unfortunately, nobody is available who is willing to work with him.
So although he is doing well at the moment, there is ample reason to assume that will change.
Equally, nobody has ever got rich betting on Boris Johnson imploding. Almost every single mistake he has made would be career ending for another politician, yet he keeps bouncing back.
The loss of London has been more than made up by gains from the other regions though.
Well, plenty. Significant parts of our economy have been shattered by the virus and the lockdowns. Many, many restaurants, bars, cafes and clubs are not coming back. Many, many small entrepreneurs will have had their dreams destroyed. The High street has seen 10-15 years of gradual decline accelerated into 15 months and there will be a lot of empty shops and the loss of over a million low skilled jobs. Boris needs a rapid bounce back from Covid and that will not be easy.
Tories of Thatcher's generation vehemently opposed the government picking winners because the record showed that it was crap at it. We are about to learn that lesson again from Rishi's recovery funds and many Tories will hate it. Internal dissension will weaken the government as will mutterings about sleaze, cronies etc.
Labour are now offering a vaguely credible if not terribly exciting alternative. If the wheels come off or the government's reputation becomes too tarnished there is a choice.
To enhance that choice Labour need to start to fizz with ideas, to make the government look tired and cautious and blundering. They need to start to lead the conversation rather than sniping from the sidelines. The weakness of the shadow cabinet makes that a real challenge but it is not impossible.
The best you can say is that we haven’t had an obvious gaffe for a week or two, so perhaps he is exercising a little more restraint? I notice listening to his recent ‘crocus’ speech that he came close to going full ISIHAC with double analogy, then suddenly swerved into a less comical sentence. Dead Ringers has had it right for some time; his credibility relies on keeping ‘real Boris’ locked up.
A Tory doesn't twice win Labour London, lead the Brexit campaign all the odds were against and then lead what had been a deeply divided party into an 80 seat majority without being able to be capable of "proper strategic thought" or an "ability to understand complex issues". As for a judge of character, while he's got some weaknesses in his Cabinet (the sooner Williamson goes the better) its far better than the one he inherited.
One thing Boris seems to do well is strategy. In fact he regularly gets lambasted here by those who claim his backing of Brexit was all part of a strategy to get himself into Downing Street in which case his strategic thought seems to be working.
And he is always going to be remembered more fondly than the current incumbent London Mayor. Khan has proved to be a blank page - without any crayons.
Hope you are feeling no worse this morning.
Edit - sorry, that came across as lukewarm. I meant that as it’s unlikely given the timeframes that you will be feeling better so soon,that your condition isn’t deteriorating. Obviously it would be great if you were feeling much better!
I agree that Khan is deeply unimpressive, even though he has mostly tried to focus on the day job.
The issue is that generation of Londoners have retired, many have moved away from London - and those who now live in London can't afford to buy their own home.
Later that day l thought of this some more. If I were 20 years younger I would consider an investment into hospitality because of the hollowing out of supply, the increase in gearing on those who have survived and the increase in demand. Why should I (who would be exploiting the situation) benefit in addition by the reduced vat rate boosting my margin?
Would it not be better to help existing businesses another way, eg regarding the loans they have taken out.
When it comes to his time as PM so far, the scales are still weighted in favour of this view.
I know most here hate him, but Dominic Cummings was unquestionably a masterclass of an appointment, when judged against the PM’s goal of breaking parliamentary deadlock by uniting the parliamentary Tory party and gaining a majority to deliver Brexit. While many will quibble on the finer detail, Lord Frost managed to deliver a satisfactory trade agreement with the EU. And Kate Bingham of course has come up trumps with the vaccines, though track and trace is something of a failure.
The real test will be what the Cabinet looks like after the reshuffle. The current one was composed for two purposes: ensuring a unified position on Brexit, and as retrospective reward for getting Boris the job in the first place. While we may all think Williamson over his head at Education, his competence at running it was not why he was appointed.
After the reshuffle, we’ll find out what sort of Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to be remembered and where his true priorities lie.
If you invest seeking to "exploit the situation" then that is fixing a hole in the economy and in a couple of years time (since I suggested keeping VAT down for 2 years) you would be paying the Exchequer significant taxes by then. If you survived that long of course, its a notoriously difficult sector to make a profit in.
The owner is however dodgy and I don't expect them to survive for that long...
I would be more impressed if I were sure that the “profound” bits were the norm, rather than being cherry picked by an actual human from a large amount of dross.
Perhaps a more interesting test would be to feed the output from one AI to another and see if it could sort out the good stuff; that might be a step too far though as I know plenty of humans who would struggle to sort the truly deep statements from the banal.
He seems to be copying the style of the big US city mayors and not in a good way. Shy away from tough decisions, go for the photo op and hint at discrimination if people oppose him.
The Financial Services package is supposed to be agreed this month. We need to remove the barriers, in both directions, to foodstocks being moved and to increase trusted trader schemes. Given we are dealing with the EU who, in fairness, have rather a lot on their plate right now there is the room for further drift but the sooner this is done the sooner the B word will stop defining Boris's premiership. If he can achieve that even London might give him a second look.
https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-information-office/m09.pdf
It's yet another completely avoidable disaster. Never mind our inability to quarantine people flying in, we have never had the ability to take passenger locator information.
Being able to fly in and not submit data is hardly new. It's been happening since last summer. It could have been fixed, but the government have no interest in doing so.
Maybe the pandemic is so different that you can't apply the same model to other sectors, but it doesn't seem impossible on the face of it.
It might still turn out to be nothing very much.
Ironically if anything does it might be a side-effect of Covid - the reported ~700k who have left London. If London's population drops and isn't restored then that could ease pressures on the overcrowded housing market, making life more affordable for Londoners, allowing more Londoners to get their own home and become good Tories.
If you want to have an example of how Labour is likely to be screwed, look at the Deep South in the States. Democrat for decades, once the Civil Rights Act came in, they switched to the Republicans and have been the bedrock of that party since.
It's a similar dynamic (if not for the same reasons here). Labour is seen by many as the party of destroying the family and traditional values, cancelling people and allowing mass immigration. I'm not saying that is true but that is the perception for many voters.
Like Tony Blair before him, there’s almost no substance. A vague centrist social mush and that’s it. It’s to his brilliant advantage that he doesn’t believe in anything. He did the one thing required of him by the people who mattered: he delivered Brexit. They will remember that until they die and also that Starmer was pro EU and tried to get us to remain.
For sure Boris is both insecure and narcissistic but he has a great fiancee who is politically astute. She has shown a deft hand in getting rid of the malign influence of Cummings who utterly dragged down the Government. Cummings is an Opposition man never for government. He’s a reactionary and the last thing you need is one of those in power. He did his job and then, at last, was shown the door. Ever since then Boris and the Conservatives have been cut free from the chain and they are flying high.
Boris has a moral compass that doesn’t point true north but then since when did that matter in a PM? We are electing a politician. Not a vicar.
Three are in the North East of Scotland and no doubt Sturgeon will respond in their case
The sixth has not yet been traced, and did not complete the passenger locater form, and in England urgent attention is being given to this passenger
All 6 arrived in the UK before the recent increased quarantine restrictions including those in Scotland
https://play.aidungeon.io/main/landing
Not tried it myself yet, but here's the background:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_Dungeon
Which should mean potential for surge testing if the variant is found anywhere.
Well, it was bollocks. I wonder how much the EU is now prepared to cast that aside in the search for a more pragmatic, long term settlement with the lion it has discovered it has as a neighbour?
As a newcomer though I would be getting a competitive advantage (that I hadn't earned because of Covid) over the existing suppliers because I wouldn't be burdened by the increase in loans and depleted cash balances, so wouldn't it be better to level out that playing field as much as possible. There is still an incentive for me to invest because of reduced supply and increase in demand.
I used the term exploiting the situation deliberately to be emotive and of course we need people to do that. It was emphasize the point that I was less deserving of the generous suggestion you make than existing suppliers and wondered if there was a fairer way of achieving your aim.
Delighted to have got through to 1st March which in my mind is start of Spring. I've never been so glad to see the back of a winter.
Hoping to be sat in a pub watching England football by June without even a thought of covid.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/covid-has-taken-wind-out-of-dutch-politics-analysts-say-as-elections-loom
I think Lost Password was being naughty, because electing another Londoner Labour leader will confine Labour to becoming a regional party like the LibDems.
Labour need a Brexit northerner but I fear, regardless, that they’re out of power for another decade.
Maybe they will never return? If the Conservatives stay in the centre and get the economy booming Singapore style post-Brexit and post-Covid then what’s the point of voting for anything else?!
'Does Boris Johnson stir up team conflict to help make up his mind?"
A quote: 'Those who worked closely with him say Johnson encourages rows and tensions over policies as he considers all sides of the argument and figures out what he will do next.'
Anyone betting would be doing so on the outcome, not the optimal outcome.
You may lack the burdens of the Covid year for bringing the business through the recession, on the other hand if you're buying an existing business you could be taking on its debts and liabilities in which case you are still burdened. Or you might buy somewhere shuttered which lacks the debts butt then also lacks goodwill etc that is valuable to a business.
Finally a temporary VAT cut is good because it ties support to trade going forwards; being ruthless if existing businesses or new ones like yourself survive and thrive in the next two years doing this then they will be healthy businesses at the end of it to pay taxes into the future. If instead the government wipes out some debts of a failing business that still goes on to fail leaving behind a shuttered premise then who does that help?
You obvs can’t pin every global pandemic death on Boris. And you know fulll well that some of the blame is on you. Yes you. The British public who constantly break the rules.
Anyway, we have the best vaccine rollout in the world and that is frankly all that matters.
There are a few embittered Labourites who would rather mass death of British citizens to Boris success. They won’t say so publicly too often but it’s sadly, and disgracefully, true.
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366308603511078912?s=20
The thing about the US split was that it was, in large part, along racial lines, which meant that the split persisted and persists for decades.
The UK split is much more along generational lines, with a breakpoint roughly between those who thought that the 60's personal revolution went quite far enough, thank you, and those who didn't. The blue wall happened in large part because of people who had retired in places where people are retired. Same for the other thing that begins with B.
Channelling my inner Cummings, I can see two ways this plays out. One is that the Conservatives continue to adapt, taking on the social mores of the older person in year X. That will mean running quite fast to stay still. They also stay in office but not in power- they delay change, but don't stop it.
The other is that they dig in with this set of values. I know people get more right-wing as they get older, but I don't think that works as well for values as economics. In that case, they could find themselves on the wrong side of the balance quite quickly.
Boris has considerable charm as well as a ruthless streak, and the combination has got him where he is, but he is rarely interesting in the sense of having any particular ideas on what needs to be done. I agree that he's a pragmatist in the sense you describe, and that he's doing pretty well at the moment, but I'm not convinced that level of pragmatism is a durable asset. We shall see.
It would be fourth in a row, surely. Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer, then Khan.
Because Miliband was born & brought up in London, & apart from 3 years of PPE at Oxford & 1 year at Harvard, worked all his life in London where he has his family home.
Until he accidentally discovered a vacant safe seat in the North.
Ed Miliband is as much a Doncastrian as I am.
I'm glad that vaccine calculator ended up being nonsense.
It isn't bollocks. We have clearly screwed up many industries. It just so happens we actually have something more important to deal with currently otherwise the news would be wall to wall Brexit screw ups (fishing, fashion, entertainment, delivery costs, delivery delays, etc, etc).
Of course the UK doing an excellent job on vaccinations and the EU royally cocking it up also changes the perspective somewhat.