On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Ah, yes, good point. I should have used a better word than 'typical'. ''Stereotypical', perhaps, or 'Idealised'. Which as you point out is very different from 'typical'. (It's interesting to speculate the reasons for this. Do more intense weathers - long hot summers, cold, snowy winters - stick in the memory more? I'm certainly struggling to recall any dreary weather from childhood British holidays, though there must have been some. Or is it the fact that we more often choose to go out in dry, pleasant weather - so a disproportionate number of our memories are that the weather is nice? Indoor memories tend not to have weather.)
What we are currently seeing is actually typical Spring weather - just several weeks too early!
Not hugely happy with the 75-84yr old cohort, that said...what's going on there?
If the number of deaths is going down in one category, and the numbers are percentages of the total, then the other categories will increase their share....
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
I wonder whether that's because of the vaccine induced neutralising antibodies getting rid of dead viral cells that could be driving an auto-immune response that seems to be associated with the condition.
My own theory for some (and this will be controversial) is that for some it will be a psychological condition. I read a fascinating book last year by a psychologist who treated many patients who exhibit symptoms such as paralysis, weakness, fatigue etc with no detectable physical evidence. In some cases getting the right discussions helped the patients massively. Note - I am not attacking anyone who suffers from ME or similar conditions, nor am I suggesting 'its all in the mind'. For some or indeed many of the long covid patients their is almost certainly physical damage leading to the issues (e.g. scarring on the lungs, heart damage). I just have a suspicion that this year has been so traumatic that for some, long covid will be done to other issues than just physical.
Edit - missed my point, which is this - for someone who is having a psychological issue (without realising it), having the vaccine may well help, but not in the medical sense. The book had a story of a young lady who received an injection designed to help her perceived condition. It worked. Within minutes. Only problem was it couldn't have taken effect for at least a week...
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
Trump-De Santis 2024?
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.
I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.
Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.
If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.
We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)
All that tells us is that Dem voters were more likely to take Covid seriously and, therefore, much more inclined to vote by post than in person in 2020. Presuming that we’re back to normal in 2024, the propensity of postal votes to be Dem won’t be apparent any longer.
If the surge in postal voting was purely to do with people (mostly dems) electing to vote by post rather than by polling station due to safety concerns (as you say) then the total turnout wouldn`t have been so exceptionally high.
There was some of that for sure but there were undoubtedly more votes cast in 2020 because of the rule change in some states to allow postal voting where it wouldn`t previously have been allowed, and these votes would not have materialised in a normal election.
Or it rose because there was a highly divisive partisan candidate driving both sides to the polls?
It was the same in the UK when British Trump led the Labour Party - the two highest turnout General Elections of this century were 2017 and 2019. Both much higher turnout than many of the prior elections without any change in rules required.
How many variants are the lockdown lunatics going to throw at Boris and Co. between now and June?
Ah. "It's all made up" "There's not really any variants."
Bloody impressive the way they prepared the ground, really. Not only did they go and kill a bunch of people in Brazil, they got all these other countries to say that this thing exists as well.
All to further the deep plot to keep us all locked down for [reasons]
Got to say that this does make the job of presenting genuine criticism of lockdowns and restrictions harder and harder for anyone who wants to do it.
If a side effect of C-19 is an effective vaccine against malaria then the net effect across the globe will be to have saved lives in the long run I think.
How many variants are the lockdown lunatics going to throw at Boris and Co. between now and June?
Ah. "It's all made up" "There's not really any variants."
Bloody impressive the way they prepared the ground, really. Not only did they go and kill a bunch of people in Brazil, they got all these other countries to say that this thing exists as well.
All to further the deep plot to keep us all locked down for [reasons]
Got to say that this does make the job of presenting genuine criticism of lockdowns and restrictions harder and harder for anyone who wants to do it.
there is going to be variants though . There always is. We need to get out of lockdown fast -
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
It is today. We're officially in Spring.
Looking forward to March 28th when, according to my Economist Diary, UK and EU Official Summer Time begins.
One of the greatest difficulties of parenthood is explaining, every three months or so, the difference between meteorological summer, astronomical summer, British Summer Time, and just a nice day.
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
It is today. We're officially in Spring.
Looking forward to March 28th when, according to my Economist Diary, UK and EU Official Summer Time begins.
One of the greatest difficulties of parenthood is explaining, every three months or so, the difference between meteorological summer, astronomical summer, British Summer Time, and just a nice day.
I often think that in the UK the variation between consecutive days can be greater than the average variation between the seasons.
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
It is today. We're officially in Spring.
Looking forward to March 28th when, according to my Economist Diary, UK and EU Official Summer Time begins.
One of the greatest difficulties of parenthood is explaining, every three months or so, the difference between meteorological summer, astronomical summer, British Summer Time, and just a nice day.
And, presumably, why bedtime does not depend on how light or dark it is outside.
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
Trump-De Santis 2024?
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.
I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.
Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.
If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.
We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)
All that tells us is that Dem voters were more likely to take Covid seriously and, therefore, much more inclined to vote by post than in person in 2020. Presuming that we’re back to normal in 2024, the propensity of postal votes to be Dem won’t be apparent any longer.
If the surge in postal voting was purely to do with people (mostly dems) electing to vote by post rather than by polling station due to safety concerns (as you say) then the total turnout wouldn`t have been so exceptionally high.
There was some of that for sure but there were undoubtedly more votes cast in 2020 because of the rule change in some states to allow postal voting where it wouldn`t previously have been allowed, and these votes would not have materialised in a normal election.
Or it rose because there was a highly divisive partisan candidate driving both sides to the polls?
It was the same in the UK when British Trump led the Labour Party - the two highest turnout General Elections of this century were 2017 and 2019. Both much higher turnout than many of the prior elections without any change in rules required.
British Trump leads the Tory Party. It is understandable you have confused Boris with Jeremy Corbyn because they both ran against Cameron and May's Conservatives.
If a side effect of C-19 is an effective vaccine against malaria then the net effect across the globe will be to have saved lives in the long run I think.
If, and in the long run. Right now coronavirus has taken away so many resources from other vaccine programs that it will take a few years just to catch up with where we would have been...
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Ah, yes, good point. I should have used a better word than 'typical'. ''Stereotypical', perhaps, or 'Idealised'. Which as you point out is very different from 'typical'. (It's interesting to speculate the reasons for this. Do more intense weathers - long hot summers, cold, snowy winters - stick in the memory more? I'm certainly struggling to recall any dreary weather from childhood British holidays, though there must have been some. Or is it the fact that we more often choose to go out in dry, pleasant weather - so a disproportionate number of our memories are that the weather is nice? Indoor memories tend not to have weather.)
What we are currently seeing is actually typical Spring weather - just several weeks too early!
Idealised is a good fit. Or movie weather, as I think of it.
How often do you have a film with persistent light drizzle, as opposed to a torrential downpour, for example?
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
It is today. We're officially in Spring.
Looking forward to March 28th when, according to my Economist Diary, UK and EU Official Summer Time begins.
One of the greatest difficulties of parenthood is explaining, every three months or so, the difference between meteorological summer, astronomical summer, British Summer Time, and just a nice day.
And, presumably, why bedtime does not depend on how light or dark it is outside.
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
It is today. We're officially in Spring.
Looking forward to March 28th when, according to my Economist Diary, UK and EU Official Summer Time begins.
One of the greatest difficulties of parenthood is explaining, every three months or so, the difference between meteorological summer, astronomical summer, British Summer Time, and just a nice day.
I often think that in the UK the variation between consecutive days can be greater than the average variation between the seasons.
Didn't someone say that, statistically, the best predictor of tomorrow's weather is today's weather?
If the Scottish Government can ignore a vote of the Scottish Parliament then it makes it much easier for the UK government to do the same (not that that they need an excuse).
Here's an interesting outline of what has been going on in Manaus, which has been the subject of recent discussion. Mortality rates exploded in a vertical line in late 2020 but have been declining, albeit more slowly, ever since.
If a side effect of C-19 is an effective vaccine against malaria then the net effect across the globe will be to have saved lives in the long run I think.
COVID is speeding up this process, rather than creating it entirely, so it is the extra lives saved by getting there sooner that is the metric. Even so, it is potentially huge.
If you haven't, one of the most interesting sections is the part about Silicon Valley technology companies, starting at 1 hour 3 minutes on the final programme, episode 6:
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
Trump-De Santis 2024?
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.
I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.
Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.
If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.
We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)
All that tells us is that Dem voters were more likely to take Covid seriously and, therefore, much more inclined to vote by post than in person in 2020. Presuming that we’re back to normal in 2024, the propensity of postal votes to be Dem won’t be apparent any longer.
If the surge in postal voting was purely to do with people (mostly dems) electing to vote by post rather than by polling station due to safety concerns (as you say) then the total turnout wouldn`t have been so exceptionally high.
There was some of that for sure but there were undoubtedly more votes cast in 2020 because of the rule change in some states to allow postal voting where it wouldn`t previously have been allowed, and these votes would not have materialised in a normal election.
Or it rose because there was a highly divisive partisan candidate driving both sides to the polls?
It was the same in the UK when British Trump led the Labour Party - the two highest turnout General Elections of this century were 2017 and 2019. Both much higher turnout than many of the prior elections without any change in rules required.
British Trump leads the Tory Party. It is understandable you have confused Boris with Jeremy Corbyn because they both ran against Cameron and May's Conservatives.
If a side effect of C-19 is an effective vaccine against malaria then the net effect across the globe will be to have saved lives in the long run I think.
COVID is speeding up this process, rather than creating it entirely, so it is the extra lives saved by getting there sooner that is the metric. Even so, it is potentially huge.
Are any other high-profile pathogens potential candidates for this approach?
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
It is today. We're officially in Spring.
Looking forward to March 28th when, according to my Economist Diary, UK and EU Official Summer Time begins.
One of the greatest difficulties of parenthood is explaining, every three months or so, the difference between meteorological summer, astronomical summer, British Summer Time, and just a nice day.
Wait, you mean you omit thermal summer? (10 June - 10 September)
If you haven't, one of the most interesting sections is the part about Silicon Valley technology companies, starting at 1 hour 3 minutes on the final programme, episode 6:
Are the French and Germans* going to mess this up for the rest of us? Covid won't be over until most overseas travel happens to countries which are themselves safe.
*Possibly the Spanish too, but their numbers are dodgy so difficult to tell.
The percentage slowdown is accelerating. Potentially 90 next Monday?
Covid is disappearing from the UK very quickly
The vaccine is working. 👍
But its OK as Europe faces another wave they don't need to worry as UvdL insists the EU have caught up with the UK and won't learn any lessons from our rollout.
If you haven't, one of the most interesting sections is the part about Silicon Valley technology companies, starting at 1 hour 3 minutes on the final programme, episode 6:
In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...
Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
Trump-De Santis 2024?
DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.
I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.
Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.
If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.
We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)
All that tells us is that Dem voters were more likely to take Covid seriously and, therefore, much more inclined to vote by post than in person in 2020. Presuming that we’re back to normal in 2024, the propensity of postal votes to be Dem won’t be apparent any longer.
If the surge in postal voting was purely to do with people (mostly dems) electing to vote by post rather than by polling station due to safety concerns (as you say) then the total turnout wouldn`t have been so exceptionally high.
There was some of that for sure but there were undoubtedly more votes cast in 2020 because of the rule change in some states to allow postal voting where it wouldn`t previously have been allowed, and these votes would not have materialised in a normal election.
Or it rose because there was a highly divisive partisan candidate driving both sides to the polls?
It was the same in the UK when British Trump led the Labour Party - the two highest turnout General Elections of this century were 2017 and 2019. Both much higher turnout than many of the prior elections without any change in rules required.
British Trump leads the Tory Party. It is understandable you have confused Boris with Jeremy Corbyn because they both ran against Cameron and May's Conservatives.
If you take time to read that header, paragraph by paragraph, you'd see it applies even more to Boris (eta: who at the time it was written was a mere backbencher).
Lock her up, and throw away the keys. All of them.
CPAC showed us conservatives who dealt with covid the way conservatives always should have.
In Noem's speech She claimed Fauci said her strategy would lead to 10,000 SD hospitalisations. They topped out at a little over six hundred.
I suppose Noem forgot to mention the fact that South Dakota has one of the highest death rates from Covid in the United States?
Anyway, this whole 'dealing with Covid the way conservatives always should have' seems to have really charmed the US public: the way they handed control of the House, Senate, and the Presidency to the Democrats was a real victory for conservatism, or something.
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
It is today. We're officially in Spring.
Looking forward to March 28th when, according to my Economist Diary, UK and EU Official Summer Time begins.
One of the greatest difficulties of parenthood is explaining, every three months or so, the difference between meteorological summer, astronomical summer, British Summer Time, and just a nice day.
I often think that in the UK the variation between consecutive days can be greater than the average variation between the seasons.
Didn't someone say that, statistically, the best predictor of tomorrow's weather is today's weather?
Yes, I suspect this is true. The UK has very seasonal seasons as a rule. What does change markedly year on year is the potency of the winter and the potency of the summers. This can happen in both directions: e.g. the two winters prior to this one were mild and lacking in snow, yet this one was cold and snowy. The 1980s had lots of snowy winters, but the 1970s had only one snowy one – although that year (1978) was among the snowiest winters on record.
The percentage slowdown is accelerating. Potentially 90 next Monday?
Covid is disappearing from the UK very quickly
And another nearly four months of restrictions. Better safe than sorry, etc but that is still quite a long time if everything is cratering.
If deaths continue to plummet towards double digits per day even with school kids going back, I think the government will struggle to keep restrictions in place for that long...
We shouldn't have them if they're not needed. I guess we'll see what happens with the vaccination, R, and hospitalisation rates.
The percentage slowdown is accelerating. Potentially 90 next Monday?
Covid is disappearing from the UK very quickly
Strictly I think that I'd say that the *impact* of COVID (hospitalisations and deaths) is disappearing very quickly, whereas COVID itself is merely disappearing quickly. Very good all the same.
The percentage slowdown is accelerating. Potentially 90 next Monday?
Covid is disappearing from the UK very quickly
And another nearly four months of restrictions. Better safe than sorry, etc but that is still quite a long time if everything is cratering.
I think the science behind the cautious approach is solid and it is backed by public opinion. If we can have fans in stadiums this summer it will be a fantastic ad for the country.
Yes, they absolutely should. I would in a heartbeat. On the same basis my son, softy Labour type, is voting for the Tories in Angus. If they have any chance at all I will vote Labour in Dundee West at the next election. Some things are just more important.
The percentage slowdown is accelerating. Potentially 90 next Monday?
Covid is disappearing from the UK very quickly
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The best way of looking at it is that we are in a much better place than we were this time last year when there were no vaccines, no-one really knew what they were facing, and there were at best questionable decisions made on the part of the Government.
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
It is today. We're officially in Spring.
Looking forward to March 28th when, according to my Economist Diary, UK and EU Official Summer Time begins.
One of the greatest difficulties of parenthood is explaining, every three months or so, the difference between meteorological summer, astronomical summer, British Summer Time, and just a nice day.
Wait, you mean you omit thermal summer? (10 June - 10 September)
And don't forget the short interval mercifully untainted by football, known ironically by some as the "off" season.
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
It is today. We're officially in Spring.
Looking forward to March 28th when, according to my Economist Diary, UK and EU Official Summer Time begins.
One of the greatest difficulties of parenthood is explaining, every three months or so, the difference between meteorological summer, astronomical summer, British Summer Time, and just a nice day.
I often think that in the UK the variation between consecutive days can be greater than the average variation between the seasons.
Didn't someone say that, statistically, the best predictor of tomorrow's weather is today's weather?
Yes, I suspect this is true. The UK has very seasonal seasons as a rule. What does change markedly year on year is the potency of the winter and the potency of the summers. This can happen in both directions: e.g. the two winters prior to this one were mild and lacking in snow, yet this one was cold and snowy. The 1980s had lots of snowy winters, but the 1970s had only one snowy one – although that year (1978) was among the snowiest winters on record.
Certainly the case until fairly recently, but weather forecasting has improved hugely in the last 20 years. Accuracy now out to 4-5 days, far surpasses what would have been for 2-3 days 20 years ago.
We still think that the forecasts are poor because most people don't understand (a) forecasting and (b) percentage probabilities. It might be different on pb, but I'm not convinced. A 10% chance of rain does not mean it won't rain, but that's the message the public takes away. Weather apps don't help - they just pump raw numerical weather prediction output into your phone, change it very 6 hours, and seem to be able to predict the weather 14 days ahead...
If a side effect of C-19 is an effective vaccine against malaria then the net effect across the globe will be to have saved lives in the long run I think.
COVID is speeding up this process, rather than creating it entirely, so it is the extra lives saved by getting there sooner that is the metric. Even so, it is potentially huge.
Are any other high-profile pathogens potential candidates for this approach?
Pretty much any infectious disease to which the body can mount a good adaptive immunological response. And the tech is just in its early days. I don't see why it should not be adapted not just to target the viral proteins that cause infection, but also those that cause the pathological symptoms or indeed those that help shield the virus from the immune system's response.
And it can be used not just against pathogens but also types of cancers.
The biological revolution that is coming, with the convergence of Big Data, the -omics (genomics, transciptomics, proteinomics, metabolomics), computational biology, and synthetic biology is something the likes of which we have never seen. Including the information revolution.
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
It is today. We're officially in Spring.
Looking forward to March 28th when, according to my Economist Diary, UK and EU Official Summer Time begins.
One of the greatest difficulties of parenthood is explaining, every three months or so, the difference between meteorological summer, astronomical summer, British Summer Time, and just a nice day.
I often think that in the UK the variation between consecutive days can be greater than the average variation between the seasons.
As we've just seen. Three weeks ago, it was snowing. One week ago, it was shirtsleeves. It may have been Fake Spring, but it was an incredible swing.
Yes, they absolutely should. I would in a heartbeat. On the same basis my son, softy Labour type, is voting for the Tories in Angus. If they have any chance at all I will vote Labour in Dundee West at the next election. Some things are just more important.
On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.
Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.
Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
It is today. We're officially in Spring.
Looking forward to March 28th when, according to my Economist Diary, UK and EU Official Summer Time begins.
One of the greatest difficulties of parenthood is explaining, every three months or so, the difference between meteorological summer, astronomical summer, British Summer Time, and just a nice day.
I often think that in the UK the variation between consecutive days can be greater than the average variation between the seasons.
Didn't someone say that, statistically, the best predictor of tomorrow's weather is today's weather?
That was true until surprisingly recently, but computer forecasts do now beat that method.
It's the changes in weather that are most important to forecast, of course, even if the weather only changes noticeably one day in five or so.
The percentage slowdown is accelerating. Potentially 90 next Monday?
Covid is disappearing from the UK very quickly
And another nearly four months of restrictions. Better safe than sorry, etc but that is still quite a long time if everything is cratering.
If deaths continue to plummet towards double digits per day even with school kids going back, I think the government will struggle to keep restrictions in place for that long...
We shouldn't have them if they're not needed. I guess we'll see what happens with the vaccination, R, and hospitalisation rates.
Judging by this weekend I think some people were adopting the rule of six outside one month early. I'd say traffic and footfall outside was double or triple two weeks ago.
I think for those with parents who've been vaccinated weeks ago they just don't see the point.
Of course, any effect won't show up in the numbers for another couple of weeks, which will be interesting to see for the week just before schools restarted.
Yes, they absolutely should. I would in a heartbeat. On the same basis my son, softy Labour type, is voting for the Tories in Angus. If they have any chance at all I will vote Labour in Dundee West at the next election. Some things are just more important.
That reminds me of one of John Harris' videos from 2015 when the nationalist surge was underway. He was standing outside a polling station as a torrent of new SNP voters flowed past. At long last, he met someone with a different voting intention, a big bluff chap with a bald head.
Harris: 'Thank God, you're the first person I've met today who says he's actually going to vote Labour. So go on, please give us your reasons for why you're willing to support the Labour Party in this election.'
If a side effect of C-19 is an effective vaccine against malaria then the net effect across the globe will be to have saved lives in the long run I think.
COVID is speeding up this process, rather than creating it entirely, so it is the extra lives saved by getting there sooner that is the metric. Even so, it is potentially huge.
Are any other high-profile pathogens potential candidates for this approach?
Pretty much any infectious disease to which the body can mount a good adaptive immunological response. And the tech is just in its early days. I don't see why it should not be adapted not just to target the viral proteins that cause infection, but also those that cause the pathological symptoms or indeed those that help shield the virus from the immune system's response.
And it can be used not just against pathogens but also types of cancers.
The biological revolution that is coming, with the convergence of Big Data, the -omics (genomics, transciptomics, proteinomics, metabolomics), computational biology, and synthetic biology is something the likes of which we have never seen. Including the information revolution.
How close are we do you think to Aubrey de Grey’s goal, of pushing out adult life expectancy faster than time can pass, thus forging a path to biological immortality?
Don't forget the "Oh, I wonder how many of those covid deaths were actually caused by, say, a hundred thousand people suddenly falling down stairs coincidentally just after receiving a positive result in a test. That's possible, isn't it?"
(For some reason, whenever they ask "so, how many of those people died of something else in that 28 day period?" they don't care about the answer ("Probably about 2500 or so. While about 2000-3000 died from covid in the 28 day-60 day period but weren't recorded in those figures. Does that help?")
On current trends we could have single digit daily deaths by the end of May. That's with continuing 30% WoW falls.
Impossible to see restrictions lasting until 21/6 if that happens. Especially if everyone is vaccinated sooner which looks plausible.
Of course debating whether to lift lockdown sooner is a better problem to have than debating whether to impose new restrictions.
I couldn't take another lockdown.
I'd rather go slow and ensure everyone is vaccinated first.
Yes, and having a long dated unlocking allows us to react to events if things go better than expected. If we went for quick unlock strategy that got delayed then it would be awful having to live through the prolongation.
Are the French and Germans* going to mess this up for the rest of us? Covid won't be over until most overseas travel happens to countries which are themselves safe.
*Possibly the Spanish too, but their numbers are dodgy so difficult to tell.
Our decent figures lately have been pushed along by a massive wave of natural immunity infection in our second/third wave that had a less desirable side effect of more than doubling our mortality rate. That "luck" is not something I would want to wish on anyone.
If a side effect of C-19 is an effective vaccine against malaria then the net effect across the globe will be to have saved lives in the long run I think.
COVID is speeding up this process, rather than creating it entirely, so it is the extra lives saved by getting there sooner that is the metric. Even so, it is potentially huge.
Are any other high-profile pathogens potential candidates for this approach?
Pretty much any infectious disease to which the body can mount a good adaptive immunological response. And the tech is just in its early days. I don't see why it should not be adapted not just to target the viral proteins that cause infection, but also those that cause the pathological symptoms or indeed those that help shield the virus from the immune system's response.
And it can be used not just against pathogens but also types of cancers.
The biological revolution that is coming, with the convergence of Big Data, the -omics (genomics, transciptomics, proteinomics, metabolomics), computational biology, and synthetic biology is something the likes of which we have never seen. Including the information revolution.
How close are we do you think to Aubrey de Grey’s goal, of pushing out adult life expectancy faster than time can pass, thus forging a path to biological immortality?
If a side effect of C-19 is an effective vaccine against malaria then the net effect across the globe will be to have saved lives in the long run I think.
COVID is speeding up this process, rather than creating it entirely, so it is the extra lives saved by getting there sooner that is the metric. Even so, it is potentially huge.
Are any other high-profile pathogens potential candidates for this approach?
Pretty much any infectious disease to which the body can mount a good adaptive immunological response. And the tech is just in its early days. I don't see why it should not be adapted not just to target the viral proteins that cause infection, but also those that cause the pathological symptoms or indeed those that help shield the virus from the immune system's response.
And it can be used not just against pathogens but also types of cancers.
The biological revolution that is coming, with the convergence of Big Data, the -omics (genomics, transciptomics, proteinomics, metabolomics), computational biology, and synthetic biology is something the likes of which we have never seen. Including the information revolution.
How close are we do you think to Aubrey de Grey’s goal, of pushing out adult life expectancy faster than time can pass, thus forging a path to biological immortality?
Not my field, but I seriously hope we are generations away. The aging process, as far as I understand, has something to do with telomeres, but I don't think you can simply reverse the effects of aging by lengthening the telomeres.
I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.
I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)
He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.
How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.
I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.
Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:
"Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."
I knew an elderly lady who reached her 100th birthday in fine mental form (if physically tired), opened her card from the Queen with her family, had a couple of glasses of bucks fizz, retired for her usual nap, and simply never woke up.
That is the way to go.
For no apparent reason, my family decided to do some attic-clearing one Saturday. We discovered all kinds of stuff, mementoes, memorabilia, etc. We went downstairs and that afternoon looked through it all with my father, aged 75 who although ill and tired, was very lively, active, and certainly compos mentis.
We laughed all afternoon (my father it turns out, for example, had a Communist Party of GB membership card - required for a just post-WWII demob choir performance in some venue or other, apparently) and quaffed champagne throughout before we all headed off to our homes. And at 2am that night my mother phoned me to say my father had died in his sleep.
Sad as it was (you can "prepare" yourself for as long as you like but it's always still a shock) on reflection - this was many years ago - I am so pleased that he didn't die hooked up to tubes, or in pain, or having forgotten who he and we all were.
There's an interesting philosophical question about how different life would be absent the terror of death and all that comes around it - if we all knew that death, when it comes, will take us painlessly and unawares at a moment we are content and at peace. Always comforting to hear such stories in a way.
If a side effect of C-19 is an effective vaccine against malaria then the net effect across the globe will be to have saved lives in the long run I think.
COVID is speeding up this process, rather than creating it entirely, so it is the extra lives saved by getting there sooner that is the metric. Even so, it is potentially huge.
Are any other high-profile pathogens potential candidates for this approach?
Pretty much any infectious disease to which the body can mount a good adaptive immunological response. And the tech is just in its early days. I don't see why it should not be adapted not just to target the viral proteins that cause infection, but also those that cause the pathological symptoms or indeed those that help shield the virus from the immune system's response.
And it can be used not just against pathogens but also types of cancers.
The biological revolution that is coming, with the convergence of Big Data, the -omics (genomics, transciptomics, proteinomics, metabolomics), computational biology, and synthetic biology is something the likes of which we have never seen. Including the information revolution.
How close are we do you think to Aubrey de Grey’s goal, of pushing out adult life expectancy faster than time can pass, thus forging a path to biological immortality?
On current trends we could have single digit daily deaths by the end of May. That's with continuing 30% WoW falls.
Impossible to see restrictions lasting until 21/6 if that happens. Especially if everyone is vaccinated sooner which looks plausible.
Of course debating whether to lift lockdown sooner is a better problem to have than debating whether to impose new restrictions.
I couldn't take another lockdown.
I'd rather go slow and ensure everyone is vaccinated first.
Yes, and having a long dated unlocking allows us to react to events if things go better than expected. If we went for quick unlock strategy that got delayed then it would be awful having to live through the prolongation.
There was a lot of talk about 24/7 vaccine roll-out in January from Boris.
I'm not sure what's happened to that, or if the limiting factor is vaccine supply, staffing or demand?
From my point of view I'd take a middle of the night slot any day of the week.
On current trends we could have single digit daily deaths by the end of May. That's with continuing 30% WoW falls.
Impossible to see restrictions lasting until 21/6 if that happens. Especially if everyone is vaccinated sooner which looks plausible.
Of course debating whether to lift lockdown sooner is a better problem to have than debating whether to impose new restrictions.
Earlier than that IMO because the drop off in deaths is accelerating.
Indeed. I didn't want to plot for that though assuming that 30% WoW was ambitious enough and the final deaths may be the hardest to eliminate.
Very positive sign though. We are very near to the end of this in this country.
As long as the Bastard Brazilian Bug doesn't Bugger Everything Up.
That's my only significant worry now, but it is a biggie. A new variant, like this.
*prays*
That is why it is in everyone's interest to vaccinate the entire planet asap - to avoid any such outcome.
However, even with a slower paced global vaccination programme, I am a little sanguine about our outlook. Vaccine escape if and when it happens is unlikely to be 100% escape from protections against infection, disease, or mortality; and the time to produce new versions of the vaccine will be in the order of months, not a year.
On current trends we could have single digit daily deaths by the end of May. That's with continuing 30% WoW falls.
Impossible to see restrictions lasting until 21/6 if that happens. Especially if everyone is vaccinated sooner which looks plausible.
Of course debating whether to lift lockdown sooner is a better problem to have than debating whether to impose new restrictions.
I couldn't take another lockdown.
I'd rather go slow and ensure everyone is vaccinated first.
Yes, and having a long dated unlocking allows us to react to events if things go better than expected. If we went for quick unlock strategy that got delayed then it would be awful having to live through the prolongation.
There was a lot of talk about 24/7 vaccine roll-out in January from Boris.
I'm not sure what's happened to that, or if the limiting factor is vaccine supply, staffing or demand?
From my point of view I'd take a middle of the night slot any day of the week.
Supply related and probably no demand in the current age groups. Aiui there's already capacity of 1m+ slots per day with the 8am-8pm strategy, I doubt we'd need more than that.
If a side effect of C-19 is an effective vaccine against malaria then the net effect across the globe will be to have saved lives in the long run I think.
COVID is speeding up this process, rather than creating it entirely, so it is the extra lives saved by getting there sooner that is the metric. Even so, it is potentially huge.
Are any other high-profile pathogens potential candidates for this approach?
Pretty much any infectious disease to which the body can mount a good adaptive immunological response. And the tech is just in its early days. I don't see why it should not be adapted not just to target the viral proteins that cause infection, but also those that cause the pathological symptoms or indeed those that help shield the virus from the immune system's response.
And it can be used not just against pathogens but also types of cancers.
The biological revolution that is coming, with the convergence of Big Data, the -omics (genomics, transciptomics, proteinomics, metabolomics), computational biology, and synthetic biology is something the likes of which we have never seen. Including the information revolution.
How close are we do you think to Aubrey de Grey’s goal, of pushing out adult life expectancy faster than time can pass, thus forging a path to biological immortality?
Not my field, but I seriously hope we are generations away. The aging process, as far as I understand, has something to do with telomeres, but I don't think you can simply reverse the effects of aging by lengthening the telomeres.
From everything I read yesterday, in my GPT3 Frenzy, we are not that far off the moment when we can upload human brains into a computer. Which would be a kind of immortality. Not very nice, perhaps
I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.
I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)
He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.
How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.
I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.
Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:
"Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."
I knew an elderly lady who reached her 100th birthday in fine mental form (if physically tired), opened her card from the Queen with her family, had a couple of glasses of bucks fizz, retired for her usual nap, and simply never woke up.
That is the way to go.
For no apparent reason, my family decided to do some attic-clearing one Saturday. We discovered all kinds of stuff, mementoes, memorabilia, etc. We went downstairs and that afternoon looked through it all with my father, aged 75 who although ill and tired, was very lively, active, and certainly compos mentis.
We laughed all afternoon (my father it turns out, for example, had a Communist Party of GB membership card - required for a just post-WWII demob choir performance in some venue or other, apparently) and quaffed champagne throughout before we all headed off to our homes. And at 2am that night my mother phoned me to say my father had died in his sleep.
Sad as it was (you can "prepare" yourself for as long as you like but it's always still a shock) on reflection - this was many years ago - I am so pleased that he didn't die hooked up to tubes, or in pain, or having forgotten who he and we all were.
There's an interesting philosophical question about how different life would be absent the terror of death and all that comes around it - if we all knew that death, when it comes, will take us painlessly and unawares at a moment we are content and at peace. Always comforting to hear such stories in a way.
I think that's true. We don't want the last bit. I saw the documentary about Dignitas and two things struck me about the filming of the older guy with MND, truly a horrible condition, who had chosen to go there.
First, they said that he was leaving a well-stocked wine cellar, which made me think get yourself the fuck home and drink some of it then come back after a few weeks; and secondly, the very final few seconds, after he drank the solution, were evidently very distressing and uncomfortable, with him gasping and grasping. Why wouldn't (you choose for it to be) just be like a general anaesthetic from which you drift off, never to reawaken
On current trends we could have single digit daily deaths by the end of May. That's with continuing 30% WoW falls.
Impossible to see restrictions lasting until 21/6 if that happens. Especially if everyone is vaccinated sooner which looks plausible.
Of course debating whether to lift lockdown sooner is a better problem to have than debating whether to impose new restrictions.
I suspect that we will end up not formally lifting restrictions faster, but increasingly turn a blind eye to those who are breaking them without totally taking the piss. (ie Rule of six outside - police will ignore; warehouse rave of 200 - police will still act). The problem with any other approach is that businesses all say (reasonably) 'we want notice of changes' so pulling changes forward on retail, pubs etc. is much harder than on the personal social interactions which people are starting to do again already.
Just generated this meme. The EU trying to decide how to learn lessons from Britain's vaccine rollout.
What do you think? Apologies if its not original text.
The thing is, this isn't as much about the EU any more. They're now receiving 2.5-3 million doses a day between AZ and Pfizer. Now, that's a lot less (proportionately) than the UK, but it's a very similar number to the US.
There is nothing, really, more for the EU Commission to do. Increasing numbers of vaccines will arrive. They will be later than the UK, but they're coming.
It's now about the French and German governments.
Their rubbishing of AZ (combined with a stupid "save a dose policy") means while they have received close to 60m doses of vaccines, they have only gotten 30m in peoples' arms.
Can Macron say "I was wrong, it's safe and efficacious?" He should. Can Merkel say "Given the optimal dosing strategy for AZ is twelve weeks, it makes no sense to hold back doses"? She should.
That isn't anything to do with the EU. That's national politics all the way through.
Yes, they absolutely should. I would in a heartbeat. On the same basis my son, softy Labour type, is voting for the Tories in Angus. If they have any chance at all I will vote Labour in Dundee West at the next election. Some things are just more important.
I would too but I think the strategy fails because Labour and the LDs are normally unwilling to return the favour.
Politics: I note Sturgeon wants to move Scotland back to 'levels' on 26th April, with leisure facilities, gyms, and pubs open barely 10 days before the Scottish parliamentary elections. Johnson wants to do "Step 3" on indoors mixing by 17th May, which overshoots.
If he's lucky I think Johnson will want to try and shave a fortnight off that, because he'll get a bounce going into the locals and mayoralties.
He can then fight the toss with Sturgeon for what the UK's performance overall means for Scotland in the last 48 hours before the vote, which could be a very important two days.
I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.
I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)
He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.
How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.
I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.
Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:
"Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."
I knew an elderly lady who reached her 100th birthday in fine mental form (if physically tired), opened her card from the Queen with her family, had a couple of glasses of bucks fizz, retired for her usual nap, and simply never woke up.
That is the way to go.
For no apparent reason, my family decided to do some attic-clearing one Saturday. We discovered all kinds of stuff, mementoes, memorabilia, etc. We went downstairs and that afternoon looked through it all with my father, aged 75 who although ill and tired, was very lively, active, and certainly compos mentis.
We laughed all afternoon (my father it turns out, for example, had a Communist Party of GB membership card - required for a just post-WWII demob choir performance in some venue or other, apparently) and quaffed champagne throughout before we all headed off to our homes. And at 2am that night my mother phoned me to say my father had died in his sleep.
Sad as it was (you can "prepare" yourself for as long as you like but it's always still a shock) on reflection - this was many years ago - I am so pleased that he didn't die hooked up to tubes, or in pain, or having forgotten who he and we all were.
There's an interesting philosophical question about how different life would be absent the terror of death and all that comes around it - if we all knew that death, when it comes, will take us painlessly and unawares at a moment we are content and at peace. Always comforting to hear such stories in a way.
I think that's true. We don't want the last bit. I saw the documentary about Dignitas and two things struck me about the filming of the older guy with MND, truly a horrible condition, who had chosen to go there.
First, they said that he was leaving a well-stocked wine cellar, which made me think get yourself the fuck home and drink some of it then come back after a few weeks; and secondly, the very final few seconds, after he drank the solution, were evidently very distressing and uncomfortable, with him gasping and grasping. Why wouldn't (you choose for it to be) just be like a general anaesthetic from which you drift off, never to reawaken
I cannot understand that. AFAIK you can be painlessly sent to sleep, then finished off with morphine. They did it to my stepmum (in a hospice). That's distressing just to READ
The percentage slowdown is accelerating. Potentially 90 next Monday?
Covid is disappearing from the UK very quickly
And another nearly four months of restrictions. Better safe than sorry, etc but that is still quite a long time if everything is cratering.
I think the science behind the cautious approach is solid and it is backed by public opinion. If we can have fans in stadiums this summer it will be a fantastic ad for the country.
There's wiggle room via the so-called test events – the government can classify the likes of Royal Ascot, England vs Scotland at Euro 2021 and perhaps a few other early Euro 2021 matches as test events that are allowed full houses.
I think some music events might also get this status, although almost all the major festivals are within (astronomical!) summer and hence should be free from restrictions anyway.
Yes, they absolutely should. I would in a heartbeat. On the same basis my son, softy Labour type, is voting for the Tories in Angus. If they have any chance at all I will vote Labour in Dundee West at the next election. Some things are just more important.
I would too but I think the strategy fails because Labour and the LDs are normally unwilling to return the favour.
As long as the Conservatives hold their constituency seats in May, the key to denying the SNP a majority could well be Tory tactical votes for Labour in their target seats
Comments
What we are currently seeing is actually typical Spring weather - just several weeks too early!
Or save it for boosters/variant boosters later in the year?
Or possibly given the trials save it for children etc?
Note - I am not attacking anyone who suffers from ME or similar conditions, nor am I suggesting 'its all in the mind'. For some or indeed many of the long covid patients their is almost certainly physical damage leading to the issues (e.g. scarring on the lungs, heart damage). I just have a suspicion that this year has been so traumatic that for some, long covid will be done to other issues than just physical.
Edit - missed my point, which is this - for someone who is having a psychological issue (without realising it), having the vaccine may well help, but not in the medical sense. The book had a story of a young lady who received an injection designed to help her perceived condition. It worked. Within minutes. Only problem was it couldn't have taken effect for at least a week...
It was the same in the UK when British Trump led the Labour Party - the two highest turnout General Elections of this century were 2017 and 2019. Both much higher turnout than many of the prior elections without any change in rules required.
"It's all made up"
"There's not really any variants."
Bloody impressive the way they prepared the ground, really.
Not only did they go and kill a bunch of people in Brazil, they got all these other countries to say that this thing exists as well.
All to further the deep plot to keep us all locked down for [reasons]
Got to say that this does make the job of presenting genuine criticism of lockdowns and restrictions harder and harder for anyone who wants to do it.
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1366402708123574272?s=20
How often do you have a film with persistent light drizzle, as opposed to a torrential downpour, for example?
https://twitter.com/B_Nelson_Manaus/status/1365683860202258445
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p093wp6h/cant-get-you-out-of-my-head
If you haven't, one of the most interesting sections is the part about Silicon Valley technology companies, starting at 1 hour 3 minutes on the final programme, episode 6:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p093x1c1/cant-get-you-out-of-my-head-series-1-6-part-six-are-we-pigeon-or-are-we-dancer
WRRROONNGGGG
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/04/the-british-trump-the-similarities-between-the-president-and-the-leader-of-the-opposition/
*Possibly the Spanish too, but their numbers are dodgy so difficult to tell.
But its OK as Europe faces another wave they don't need to worry as UvdL insists the EU have caught up with the UK and won't learn any lessons from our rollout.
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1366405502205374474?s=20
Anyway, this whole 'dealing with Covid the way conservatives always should have' seems to have really charmed the US public: the way they handed control of the House, Senate, and the Presidency to the Democrats was a real victory for conservatism, or something.
We shouldn't have them if they're not needed. I guess we'll see what happens with the vaccination, R, and hospitalisation rates.
What do you think? Apologies if its not original text.
We still think that the forecasts are poor because most people don't understand (a) forecasting and (b) percentage probabilities. It might be different on pb, but I'm not convinced. A 10% chance of rain does not mean it won't rain, but that's the message the public takes away. Weather apps don't help - they just pump raw numerical weather prediction output into your phone, change it very 6 hours, and seem to be able to predict the weather 14 days ahead...
And it can be used not just against pathogens but also types of cancers.
The biological revolution that is coming, with the convergence of Big Data, the -omics (genomics, transciptomics, proteinomics, metabolomics), computational biology, and synthetic biology is something the likes of which we have never seen. Including the information revolution.
It's the changes in weather that are most important to forecast, of course, even if the weather only changes noticeably one day in five or so.
I think for those with parents who've been vaccinated weeks ago they just don't see the point.
Of course, any effect won't show up in the numbers for another couple of weeks, which will be interesting to see for the week just before schools restarted.
Harris: 'Thank God, you're the first person I've met today who says he's actually going to vote Labour. So go on, please give us your reasons for why you're willing to support the Labour Party in this election.'
Bluff bloke: 'Because I'm a Conservative!'
Harris: <
Impossible to see restrictions lasting until 21/6 if that happens. Especially if everyone is vaccinated sooner which looks plausible.
Of course debating whether to lift lockdown sooner is a better problem to have than debating whether to impose new restrictions.
And I'm assuming you posted this tweet ironically.
Very positive sign though. We are very near to the end of this in this country.
I'd rather go slow and ensure everyone is vaccinated first.
Blimey.
(For some reason, whenever they ask "so, how many of those people died of something else in that 28 day period?" they don't care about the answer ("Probably about 2500 or so. While about 2000-3000 died from covid in the 28 day-60 day period but weren't recorded in those figures. Does that help?")
Not that anyone will trumpet it yet.
That's my only significant worry now, but it is a biggie. A new variant, like this.
*prays*
You'd expect it to be falling quite rapidly in the UK now.
I'm not sure what's happened to that, or if the limiting factor is vaccine supply, staffing or demand?
From my point of view I'd take a middle of the night slot any day of the week.
However, even with a slower paced global vaccination programme, I am a little sanguine about our outlook. Vaccine escape if and when it happens is unlikely to be 100% escape from protections against infection, disease, or mortality; and the time to produce new versions of the vaccine will be in the order of months, not a year.
First, they said that he was leaving a well-stocked wine cellar, which made me think get yourself the fuck home and drink some of it then come back after a few weeks; and secondly, the very final few seconds, after he drank the solution, were evidently very distressing and uncomfortable, with him gasping and grasping. Why wouldn't (you choose for it to be) just be like a general anaesthetic from which you drift off, never to reawaken
It’s nothing like last March/April.
back to normal, folks.
Significantly more traffic on the road, people in the supermarket etc. In my blocks of ~60 flats there are many more non residents coming & going.
I think boris’s announcement of the timetable was the trigger.
There is nothing, really, more for the EU Commission to do. Increasing numbers of vaccines will arrive. They will be later than the UK, but they're coming.
It's now about the French and German governments.
Their rubbishing of AZ (combined with a stupid "save a dose policy") means while they have received close to 60m doses of vaccines, they have only gotten 30m in peoples' arms.
Can Macron say "I was wrong, it's safe and efficacious?" He should. Can Merkel say "Given the optimal dosing strategy for AZ is twelve weeks, it makes no sense to hold back doses"? She should.
That isn't anything to do with the EU. That's national politics all the way through.
You've been an asset through this entire crisis, Max. Real insider info. V helpful!
pubs open barely 10 days before the Scottish parliamentary elections. Johnson wants to do "Step 3" on indoors mixing by 17th May, which overshoots.
If he's lucky I think Johnson will want to try and shave a fortnight off that, because he'll get a bounce going into the locals and mayoralties.
He can then fight the toss with Sturgeon for what the UK's performance overall means for Scotland in the last 48 hours before the vote, which could be a very important two days.
I think some music events might also get this status, although almost all the major festivals are within (astronomical!) summer and hence should be free from restrictions anyway.