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Although Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge this is not in places where it matters – polit

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,108

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:
    Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jail
    Sarkozy then Macron
    Unlikely I think.

    The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:
    Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jail
    Sarkozy then Macron
    Unlikely I think.

    The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
    You think Macron is scandal free ?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,213
    edited March 2021
    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    I'm sure it's not.. unconnected. :smile:
    But I think it's also a not inaccurate indication of who's next in line if Trump doesn't run.
    Of course the whole MAGA thing could blow up between now and 2024, but that seems unlikely, even if Trump were to be jailed or have a coronary.

    And Florida is the Trump base now, so it's not just any large state.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,108

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:
    Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jail
    Sarkozy then Macron
    Unlikely I think.

    The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
    You think Macron is scandal free ?

    The French establishment is unlikely to convict him even if he was as he is the only person stopping a Le Pen presidency
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,822
    On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.

    Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,108

    HYUFD said:
    An extra year of lockdown for Sarkozy... (might be at the same time as the rest of the nation, unless their vaccine roll-out speads up!
    Stuck at home for a year with Carla Bruni, I can think of worse sentences.
    Yeah if your Carla Bruni youre stuck at home with Sarko for a year,
    Perhaps she can compare notes with Melania who is stuck with Trump at Mar a lago
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:
    Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jail
    Sarkozy then Macron
    Unlikely I think.

    The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
    Le Pen is not "of the right" and if Macron falls it would open the way for someone else, potentially somebody not even named currently, to step forward instead.

    Options are not restricted to the ones currently leading opinion polls.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.

    I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)

    He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
    I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.
    How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.
    I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.

    Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:

    "Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.

    I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)

    He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
    I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.
    How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.
    Manny Shilwell?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,108
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:
    Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jail
    Sarkozy then Macron
    Unlikely I think.

    The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
    You think Macron is scandal free ?

    The French establishment is unlikely to convict him even if he was as he is the only person stopping a Le Pen presidency
    If we get a Le Pen presidency I dont fancy his chances.

    The french establishment is currently too distracted with incest and paedo scandals to pay much attention
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:
    Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jail
    Sarkozy then Macron
    Unlikely I think.

    The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
    You think Macron is scandal free ?

    French Presidents have immunity from prosecution, don't they?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    Win the nomination or win the election?

    The former is much, much, much more likely than the latter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,108
    edited March 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:
    Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jail
    Sarkozy then Macron
    Unlikely I think.

    The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
    You think Macron is scandal free ?

    The French establishment is unlikely to convict him even if he was as he is the only person stopping a Le Pen presidency
    If we get a Le Pen presidency I dont fancy his chances.

    The french establishment is currently too distracted with incest and paedo scandals to pay much attention
    If we got a Le Pen presidency then yes Macron could join Sarkozy in jail as she sweeps away the old French establishment
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,213
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    Jail or mortality might intervene, of course.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    It would be useful if the EU actually had people vaccinated to qualify for one....
  • Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Both DeSantis and Noem are fairly credible GOP contenders. Interesting that Noem was on 11% (and DeSantis 43%) in a hypothetical "Trump doesn't run" scenario. That is ahead of Don Jnr (8%) and Cruz (7%). Both pass the loyalty test and are away from DC which is an advantage in terms of avoiding some of the Trump fallout.

    I remain of a view Trump won't run in the end. He has to say rattle that sabre to retain influence, but has legal and financial issues to consider, has lost his social media presence, will be 78, and will fear losing again.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:
    Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jail
    Sarkozy then Macron
    Unlikely I think.

    The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
    You think Macron is scandal free ?

    French Presidents have immunity from prosecution, don't they?
    until they stop being president - see Sarkozy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,108

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:
    Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jail
    Sarkozy then Macron
    Unlikely I think.

    The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
    Le Pen is not "of the right" and if Macron falls it would open the way for someone else, potentially somebody not even named currently, to step forward instead.

    Options are not restricted to the ones currently leading opinion polls.
    Le Pen is of the right, just the nationalist, populist right.

    In France the leader of the opposition to the liberal Macron is effectively Le Pen's party now given the collapse of the centre right.

    If Macron was convicted that would be the liberal left contaminated by corruption just as the centre right has been, opening the way for Le Pen
  • eekeek Posts: 28,397
    Cookie said:

    This government really does hate children.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1366367835669360640

    I don't think sending kids to school is 'hating children' is it? What would you prefer - endlessly keeping them home on the off chance that one of them might get a sniffle?
    Well the ones in South Gloucestershire don't appear to be a priority for the government.

    But for the hard of understanding, children don't appear to get sick from Covid-19 but they have a tendency to spread it to their parents and carers, which is sub optimal for the kids.
    But why does that mean the government 'hates children'? I'd get it if you thought it was a risk to the population of South Gloucs, but you didn't say that.
    It was shorthand.

    As I said upthread, Gavin Williamson made this decision, just like the decision to open the schools for just one day in January despite the overwhelming evidence, there's an unfortunate pattern with this government when it comes to schools.
    I take the opposite view - the government is far too ready to close schools, despite the clear evidence of the long-term harm it does them, especially the most disadvantaged. I expect it's because they hate children.

    Or possibly it's because there are people in DfT and elsewhere in government trying to come to an overall view taking competing interests ad pressures into account who happen to have come to the opposite conclusion to me.

    Schools add 0.3-0.5 to the value of R (exact value unknown but it's significant).

    For numbers to be reduced R needs to be less than 1 and with schools closed the number is 0.6 to 0.9. With schools open that figure is going to be between 0.9 and 1.4 so lets hope that the figures reduce further before next week.

    The simple fact is that the Christmas peak meant there was no choice but to close schools.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    I doubt he's going to run. He's just keeping the possibility open mainly because

    1) it allows him to make enormous amounts of money, which he's going to need for all his legal bills
    2) it allows him to paint legal action against him as politically motivated

  • I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.

    I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)

    He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
    I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.
    How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.
    I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.

    Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:

    "Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."
    Very good. He wasn't actually a member of the House of Lords when he reached 100, I think, as he was a phased out hereditary. But clearly he was a peer, as was Manny Shilwell as DixieDean says.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:
    Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jail
    Sarkozy then Macron
    Unlikely I think.

    The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
    Le Pen is not "of the right" and if Macron falls it would open the way for someone else, potentially somebody not even named currently, to step forward instead.

    Options are not restricted to the ones currently leading opinion polls.
    Le Pen is of the right, just the nationalist, populist right.

    In France the leader of the opposition to the liberal Macron is effectively Le Pen's party now given the collapse of the centre right.

    If Macron was convicted that would be the liberal left contaminated by corruption just as the centre right has been, opening the way for Le Pen
    No it would lead a void and someone would step into that void. It wouldn't just eliminate an entire chunk of people.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    J&J have received approval for a trial in babies, kids, pregnant women and people not usually eligible for a vaccine due to health issues. The regulator must be supremely confident in the safety and efficacy.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,822
    dixiedean said:

    I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.

    I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)

    He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
    I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.
    How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.
    Manny Shilwell?
    It really is very unlikely for any of us to get to 100. The demographic stats on this are quite amazing. Getting to 90 nowadays is utterly unremarkable - over half of us will make it. But that final ten years to 100 defeats almost everyone. Even if you make 99, it's no more than 50/50 you'll get to your hundredth birthday.

    Best of luck to the Duke though.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,438
    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    This government really does hate children.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1366367835669360640

    I don't think sending kids to school is 'hating children' is it? What would you prefer - endlessly keeping them home on the off chance that one of them might get a sniffle?
    Well the ones in South Gloucestershire don't appear to be a priority for the government.

    But for the hard of understanding, children don't appear to get sick from Covid-19 but they have a tendency to spread it to their parents and carers, which is sub optimal for the kids.
    But why does that mean the government 'hates children'? I'd get it if you thought it was a risk to the population of South Gloucs, but you didn't say that.
    It was shorthand.

    As I said upthread, Gavin Williamson made this decision, just like the decision to open the schools for just one day in January despite the overwhelming evidence, there's an unfortunate pattern with this government when it comes to schools.
    I take the opposite view - the government is far too ready to close schools, despite the clear evidence of the long-term harm it does them, especially the most disadvantaged. I expect it's because they hate children.

    Or possibly it's because there are people in DfT and elsewhere in government trying to come to an overall view taking competing interests ad pressures into account who happen to have come to the opposite conclusion to me.

    Schools add 0.3-0.5 to the value of R (exact value unknown but it's significant).

    For numbers to be reduced R needs to be less than 1 and with schools closed the number is 0.6 to 0.9. With schools open that figure is going to be between 0.9 and 1.4 so lets hope that the figures reduce further before next week.

    The simple fact is that the Christmas peak meant there was no choice but to close schools.
    The kerfuffle around the Kent variant's effect on R is significant here. Adding 0.7 to R was bandied around, but it was never going to be that simple. Same with schools. Undoubtedly there will be an increase, but the behaviour round me suggests it might not be as big as expected, simply because so much mixing is already going on. I think we are seeing the vaccine effect dropping R slightly at the same time that mixing is pushing it up, so it appears to be stable (between 0.6 to 0.9).
    Maybe I'm just too optimistic.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Nigelb said:
    These guys are just 15 minutes down I270. I should go visit once life returns a little more to normal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,108
    edited March 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:
    Sarkozy then Trump? Sarkozy's PM already in jail
    Sarkozy then Macron
    Unlikely I think.

    The French centre right has already collapsed because of these scandals and been overtaken by Le Pen's party as the main party of the right, if Macron was also convicted of corruption it could open the way for Le Pen to move to the Elysee
    Le Pen is not "of the right" and if Macron falls it would open the way for someone else, potentially somebody not even named currently, to step forward instead.

    Options are not restricted to the ones currently leading opinion polls.
    Le Pen is of the right, just the nationalist, populist right.

    In France the leader of the opposition to the liberal Macron is effectively Le Pen's party now given the collapse of the centre right.

    If Macron was convicted that would be the liberal left contaminated by corruption just as the centre right has been, opening the way for Le Pen
    No it would lead a void and someone would step into that void. It wouldn't just eliminate an entire chunk of people.
    Well there would be establishment candidates but with the entire French establishment contaminated by corruption and the leading figures of the liberal left and centre right in jail the way would be open for Le Pen
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,263

    I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.

    I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)

    He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
    I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.
    How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.
    I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.

    Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:

    "Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."
    Very good. He wasn't actually a member of the House of Lords when he reached 100, I think, as he was a phased out hereditary. But clearly he was a peer, as was Manny Shilwell as DixieDean says.
    As a peer of first creation I assume DoE is still formally a member of the Lords?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MaxPB said:

    J&J have received approval for a trial in babies, kids, pregnant women and people not usually eligible for a vaccine due to health issues. The regulator must be supremely confident in the safety and efficacy.

    Isn't that the whole point of a trial? To determine safety (and efficacy). I don't think trials are as simple as giving somebody a full dose and seeing if they drop dead.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Cookie said:

    On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.

    Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.

    Indeed, the seasons have certainly been seasonal!

    I'm not familiar with the book (?) however –– what transpires? It is that South Oxon in under some sort of spell where its weather is always perfectly seasonal?
  • On ebay, be wary of the fake ones though....that are so super old GPU that has had firmware hacked to make it read out that it is a much more recent model.

    It's quite a lot harder to pull that off with AMD cards than NVidia ones, and fairly easy to spot - google the card model and check the sockets on the I/O plate match. Old cards will lack a displayport socket.
  • I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.

    I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)

    He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
    I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.
    How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.
    I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.

    Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:

    "Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."
    I knew an elderly lady who reached her 100th birthday in fine mental form (if physically tired), opened her card from the Queen with her family, had a couple of glasses of bucks fizz, retired for her usual nap, and simply never woke up.

    That is the way to go.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    J&J have received approval for a trial in babies, kids, pregnant women and people not usually eligible for a vaccine due to health issues. The regulator must be supremely confident in the safety and efficacy.

    Isn't that the whole point of a trial? To determine safety (and efficacy). I don't think trials are as simple as giving somebody a full dose and seeing if they drop dead.
    Yes, though for the groups mentioned there is a much higher bar for trial approval, the pharma must already have evidence of no serious adverse reactions and of likely efficacy to make the risk worthwhile.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    I note that the very same Trumptons who ramped him last time are doing so again. Take your perverted fantasies to MrEd.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
    As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    HYUFD said:
    An extra year of lockdown for Sarkozy... (might be at the same time as the rest of the nation, unless their vaccine roll-out speads up!
    Stuck at home for a year with Carla Bruni, I can think of worse sentences.
    Yeah if your Carla Bruni youre stuck at home with Sarko for a year,
    She has the option of going on a world tour (travel restrictions and UK visa issues permitting).
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    I don't think Prince Philip is in very good condition....transferred to St Barts.

    I do hope he makes it to the 10th of June this year (and beyond!)

    He'd get a telegram from his wife on the 10th of June.
    I believe members of the House of Lords get a personal call of congratulations from the Monarch. I'm sure she could run to that. For a Duke.
    How many members of the House of Lords have made 100? I know several have got close - Baroness Trumpington died at 96, Lord Healey at 98, and Lord Carrington at 99. But I am unsure if the convention to which you refer has been tested all that often.
    I can't recall who it was - they were on the radio discussing it.

    Did find this though, suggesting it is not just a call:

    "Baron Oranmore and Browne died aged 100, and was unimpressed with his card from the Queen, which he thought had too large a photo of her on the front. “Horrible,” he remarked, putting it back in the envelope."
    Very good. He wasn't actually a member of the House of Lords when he reached 100, I think, as he was a phased out hereditary. But clearly he was a peer, as was Manny Shilwell as DixieDean says.
    As a peer of first creation I assume DoE is still formally a member of the Lords?
    Apparently not.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    OT Shaun Bailey's London Mayor leaflet has arrived.

    Made to look like a magazine titled London Life, with eight A5-sized colour, glossy pages. The cover photo has Shaun's multi-racial family on its way to the park. The centre spread is a two-page interview by Karren Brady. Page 2 has a photo of Shaun with Rishi; page 3 his experience working for David Cameron; oh, and some geezer called Boris commends him in a paragraph on page 7. Page 6 is given over to Ellie Bailey, who unsurprisingly backs her husband.

    The back page is given over to "9 questions with Shaun Bailey" where he lays out his political philosophy and policies. Only joking! He likes Greggs doughnuts, Flash Gordon and can do a standing backflip. Vote Shaun!!

    To be fair, there is some policy chat with Karren Brady. There's at least one typo and no URL that I can see, thought there is a QR code and various social media handles.

    A standing backflip counts for something, surely?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,213
    There appear to be competent German political cartoonists.
    https://twitter.com/viewer112/status/1366305031981584384
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Also to must add that AZ have got active trials in the same groups as J&J and Pfizer are doing trials for 13-17 year olds too. Hopefully the AZ vaccine gets approved for use in 5+ year olds before the end of June so that a vaccine programme can be initiated for them before the start of the school year.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited March 2021
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    J&J have received approval for a trial in babies, kids, pregnant women and people not usually eligible for a vaccine due to health issues. The regulator must be supremely confident in the safety and efficacy.

    Isn't that the whole point of a trial? To determine safety (and efficacy). I don't think trials are as simple as giving somebody a full dose and seeing if they drop dead.
    Adenoviruses are a well-developed vehicle for introduction of target viral genetic material, and have been used in other vaccines before COVID. One of the advantages is their known safety, and the fact that the virus' DNA does not integrate with the human cell genome, so cannot result in mutagenesis.

    My guess is that J&J and the FDA have looked at the safety data for adenovirus vaccines against other diseases and deemed the safety results in those specific groups to those other vaccines to be sufficiently good to warrant confirmatory safety testing with the COVID version of the vaccine.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
    As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.
    I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,236
    edited March 2021
    Belgium:

    The sudden decrease in the share of the 85+ in the total number of deaths can be explained by the vaccination effect. And that is very good news!

    https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/1366321487540588546
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,822

    Cookie said:

    On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.

    Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.

    Indeed, the seasons have certainly been seasonal!

    I'm not familiar with the book (?) however –– what transpires? It is that South Oxon in under some sort of spell where its weather is always perfectly seasonal?
    Pretty much, yes. It turns out that the spawn of the devil lives there. Though the child in question doesn't realise e is the spawn of the devil. He's just able through sheer force of will to make things turn out how he thinks they ought to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,108

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
    As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.
    I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.
    Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.

    If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
  • Will Gavin Williamson's Free Speech Champion be looking at the silencing and cancelling of Greenslade, I wonder? Does Greenslade's decision to fall on his sword represent a 'silencing of voices and a chilling effect of censorship on campus'? (Quote G. Williamson).

    Probably not.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Prince Phillip 'responding to treatment' and 'remains comfortable'... Why do I suspect that is far from the truth?

    There is quite a lot that doesn't say. In particular, it doesn't say "improving".

    Prince Phillip 'responding to treatment' and 'remains comfortable'... Why do I suspect that is far from the truth?

    There is quite a lot that doesn't say. In particular, it doesn't say "improving".
    Sadly.
    Nearly 100. 13 days in hospital. And needing to be moved.
    That doesn't add up to a positive prognosis to me.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Norman Lamont’s ‘red box’ is but a distant memory ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,213
    Interesting suggestion that the vaccines might be effective in ameliorating 'long Covid'.

    https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1366067849480048643
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited March 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
    As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.
    I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.
    Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.

    If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
    It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.

    We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    dixiedean said:

    Prince Phillip 'responding to treatment' and 'remains comfortable'... Why do I suspect that is far from the truth?

    There is quite a lot that doesn't say. In particular, it doesn't say "improving".

    Prince Phillip 'responding to treatment' and 'remains comfortable'... Why do I suspect that is far from the truth?

    There is quite a lot that doesn't say. In particular, it doesn't say "improving".
    Sadly.
    Nearly 100. 13 days in hospital. And needing to be moved.
    That doesn't add up to a positive prognosis to me.
    OTOH, it is the Monarch's spouse. They are going to be where they get THE best specialist care. Which might mean moving them as their condition is fully ascertained.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting suggestion that the vaccines might be effective in ameliorating 'long Covid'.

    https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1366067849480048643

    I wonder whether that's because of the vaccine induced neutralising antibodies getting rid of dead viral cells that could be driving an auto-immune response that seems to be associated with the condition.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited March 2021

    twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1366388631267590146?s=20

    If I was Boris, I would be worried about how long it is until I get the shove....Superficially, not only better than Boris, but comes across much better than Gordon Starmer.

    While Starmer is trying to redo Blair 1997 playbook, Dishy Rishi is doing 2020 slicker updated modern version.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,213
    This, and Naomi Wolf's recent mad tweet, provide further evidence for my assertion that analogies rarely illuminate, and often do quite the opposite.

    https://twitter.com/Garnet_Smuczer/status/1365879949031333894
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    MattW said:

    Belgium:

    The sudden decrease in the share of the 85+ in the total number of deaths can be explained by the vaccination effect. And that is very good news!

    https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/1366321487540588546

    "En dat is heel goed nieuws!"

    That isn't a proper foreign language, that is just Johnny Dutchman taking the piss out of English!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Not wearing a tie. Finally he looks like a normal person wearing a crew neck jumper over a shirt. The whole hoodie over the shirt and tie combo was just so awful.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    MattW said:

    Belgium:

    The sudden decrease in the share of the 85+ in the total number of deaths can be explained by the vaccination effect. And that is very good news!

    https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/1366321487540588546

    Not hugely happy with the 75-84yr old cohort, that said...what's going on there?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    Belgium:

    The sudden decrease in the share of the 85+ in the total number of deaths can be explained by the vaccination effect. And that is very good news!

    https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/1366321487540588546

    Not hugely happy with the 75-84yr old cohort, that said...what's going on there?
    It is shares of deaths. So if one comes down, others have to go up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited March 2021
    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20

    Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    Belgium:

    The sudden decrease in the share of the 85+ in the total number of deaths can be explained by the vaccination effect. And that is very good news!

    https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/1366321487540588546

    Not hugely happy with the 75-84yr old cohort, that said...what's going on there?
    A percentage of 100 - as the Crumblies fall out, the others rise to replace them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    TimT said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    Belgium:

    The sudden decrease in the share of the 85+ in the total number of deaths can be explained by the vaccination effect. And that is very good news!

    https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/1366321487540588546

    Not hugely happy with the 75-84yr old cohort, that said...what's going on there?
    It is shares of deaths. So if one comes down, others have to go up.
    Ah yes sorry I didn't look properly. Thought it might be.. And @MarqueeMark also thanks.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20

    Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.

    Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2021
    I am sad, and slightly hurt, that Mike is still using net figures rather than my new fangled way of Gross Positives with a turnout tweak (TM)!

    Unless leader ratings are filtered by likelihood to vote, and I don't know if they are or not, then 30% of respondents, for the most part the "don't knows", are irrelevant, it seems to me, and the number that matters, crudely, is Gross Positives/70
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20

    Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.

    It's an improvement on last Monday at least!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,108
    edited March 2021

    twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1366388631267590146?s=20

    If I was Boris, I would be worried about how long it is until I get the shove....Superficially, not only better than Boris, but comes across much better than Gordon Starmer.

    While Starmer is trying to redo Blair 1997 playbook, Dishy Rishi is doing 2020 slicker updated modern version.
    If Boris became unpopular Sunak would hope to be Major to his post poll tax Thatcher and Starmer's Kinnock.

    At the moment though Boris is sensible enough to avoid any poll tax style disasters
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,236
    edited March 2021

    twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1366388631267590146?s=20

    If I was Boris, I would be worried about how long it is until I get the shove....Superficially, not only better than Boris, but comes across much better than Gordon Starmer.

    While Starmer is trying to redo Blair 1997 playbook, Dishy Rishi is doing 2020 slicker updated modern version.
    You need to migrate Gordon to F.

    Foggy (LOTSW), then nominative determinism would kick in.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,213
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting suggestion that the vaccines might be effective in ameliorating 'long Covid'.

    https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1366067849480048643

    I wonder whether that's because of the vaccine induced neutralising antibodies getting rid of dead viral cells that could be driving an auto-immune response that seems to be associated with the condition.
    The professor's tweet thread suggests several possible mechanisms, of which that is indeed one.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,236
    Does anyone know the timeline for the J&J vaccine in the UK?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20

    Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.

    Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?
    Weekend numbers.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421
    Cookie said:

    On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.

    Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.

    People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.

    Quite remarkable.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,108
    edited March 2021
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
    As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.
    I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.
    Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.

    If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
    It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.

    We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)
    Trump lost because his approval rating was not good enough ie it was significantly under 50%, extra postal voting as you say merely boosted turnout overall, not only for Biden but for Trump too.

    If Biden's approval rating also falls well under 50% by 2024 then Trump will fancy his chances, postal voting or not
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    MattW said:

    Does anyone know the timeline for the J&J vaccine in the UK?

    Late May at the earliest. June is most likely. We'll get Moderna and Novavax before then and probably be done with the whole programme.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
    As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.
    I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.
    Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.

    If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
    It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.

    We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)
    All that tells us is that Dem voters were more likely to take Covid seriously and, therefore, much more inclined to vote by post than in person in 2020. Presuming that we’re back to normal in 2024, the propensity of postal votes to be Dem won’t be apparent any longer.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited March 2021
    MaxPB said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20

    Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.

    Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?
    Weekend numbers.
    You'd think Saturday and Sunday would be the busiest days considering a lot of people are not at work...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,922
    Stocky said:

    OT Shaun Bailey's London Mayor leaflet has arrived.

    Made to look like a magazine titled London Life, with eight A5-sized colour, glossy pages. The cover photo has Shaun's multi-racial family on its way to the park. The centre spread is a two-page interview by Karren Brady. Page 2 has a photo of Shaun with Rishi; page 3 his experience working for David Cameron; oh, and some geezer called Boris commends him in a paragraph on page 7. Page 6 is given over to Ellie Bailey, who unsurprisingly backs her husband.

    The back page is given over to "9 questions with Shaun Bailey" where he lays out his political philosophy and policies. Only joking! He likes Greggs doughnuts, Flash Gordon and can do a standing backflip. Vote Shaun!!

    To be fair, there is some policy chat with Karren Brady. There's at least one typo and no URL that I can see, thought there is a QR code and various social media handles.

    A standing backflip counts for something, surely?
    Good for second place at least, I'd say. Never underestimate the gymnastics vote.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited March 2021

    MaxPB said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20

    Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.

    Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?
    Weekend numbers.
    You'd think Saturday and Sunday would be the busiest days considering a lot of people are not at work...
    And haven't we had some of the biggest days over the weekend?

    But it is obvious, from every govt announcement, that we're going to see some huge numbers in the days and weeks of March ahead.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
    As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.
    I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.
    Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.

    If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
    It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.

    We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)
    Trump lost because his approval rating was not good enough ie it was significantly under 50%, extra postal voting as you say merely boosted turnout overall, not only for Biden but for Trump too.

    If Biden's approval rating also falls well under 50% by 2024 then Trump will fancy his chances, postal voting or not
    And if Trump's approval rating gets to 75%, he'll probably win too.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    MaxPB said:

    Not wearing a tie. Finally he looks like a normal person wearing a crew neck jumper over a shirt. The whole hoodie over the shirt and tie combo was just so awful.
    As a conservative Rishi Sunak said he's in favour of low taxes. He likes low taxes so much he raising taxes from the highest in decades to the highest in even more decades.

    He's like the sort of Fox who is very much in favour of chicken welfare.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2021
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    MaxPB said:

    Not wearing a tie. Finally he looks like a normal person wearing a crew neck jumper over a shirt. The whole hoodie over the shirt and tie combo was just so awful.
    As a conservative Rishi Sunak said he's in favour of low taxes. He likes low taxes so much he raising taxes from the highest in decades to the highest in even more decades.

    He's like the sort of Fox who is very much in favour of chicken welfare.
    The healthier your chickens, the more there is to eat.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20

    Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.

    Tomorrow's will be poor too surely. Wednesday good.
  • SforzandoSforzando Posts: 18

    Cookie said:

    On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.

    Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.

    People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.

    Quite remarkable.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif
    Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MaxPB said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20

    Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.

    Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?
    Weekend numbers.
    Do we know if that's a reflection on activity or of reporting?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,804
    F1: this is certainly an extreme angle on the difficult choice of spending resources in the short versus long term.

    But it may be right for Haas.

    https://twitter.com/Motorsport/status/1366337353850245125
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20

    Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.

    Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?
    I suspect they are still keeping some in reserve for 2nd doses. Given the numbers always increase from Wednesday I would expect then is when we are going to see some really big numbers coming out. I can't imagine this won't happen given the briefing around a bumper March.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    How many variants are the lockdown lunatics going to throw at Boris and Co. between now and June?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    Sforzando said:

    Cookie said:

    On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.

    Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.

    People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.

    Quite remarkable.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif
    Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
    The Beast from the East 2018 and the follow up snowy bout a fortnight later were both in March.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,213
    HYUFD said:
    Lock her up, and throw away the keys.
    All of them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sforzando said:

    Cookie said:

    On a cheerier note, it really is a very lovely day indeed. Again. Warmth, blossom, birdsong. Not a cloud in the sky.

    Is anyone familiar with 'Good Omens'? I keep thinking back to the bit where the witchfinder's assistant realises that that particular village in South Oxfordshire ALWAYS has weather very typical for the time of year - glorious hot summers, blustery Autumns, frozen and snowy winters, beautiful warm springtimes. It feels like that has been happening to the UK ever since LD1 last March.

    People's expectations around the weather are endlessly fascinating. We had a day near the end of February that came very close to breaking the Central England Temperature record for that day (back to 1772), and yet it fits into expectations of typical weather for the season.

    Quite remarkable.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif
    Yes, beautiful and most welcome the recent weather certainly has been, but seasonal it ain't.
    It is today. We're officially in Spring.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump mini-me De Santis definitely having a moment with the Trump faithful.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/540909-trump-wins-cpac-straw-poll-with-55-percent
    ...Former President Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll on Sunday, with 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.

    In the straw poll that demonstrated Trump's hold on the GOP, 21 percent said they’d vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and 4 percent said they’d go with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R)...

    Isn't this largely because a huge proportion of the attendees were from, er, Florida?
    Trump-De Santis 2024?
    DeSantis is no dummy and is ruthlessly ambitious. He might be too hard for Trump to control. I think Trump will pick Ivanka just because of the media firestorm it would cause. He's definitely going to run and he's probably going to win.
    Trump will only run again though if the Biden and Harris administration is unpopular and he thinks he can win, if he thinks he will lose he will play kingmaker instead for whoever gets the nomination
    As to whether Trump can win - it all depends on the postal voting. If the 2020 Covid changes to the voting mechanism reverts to normal in 2024 then Trump will win whether or not Biden/Harris are popular IMO.
    I don't buy that. Postal voting generally helps right wing parties more than leftist ones and his attack on it was Trump's means of finding an excuse.
    Yes, if Trump was popular he would have won even with the extra postal voting.

    If Biden and Harris are unpopular in 2024 then Trump could win by contrast whether there is high postal voting or not, unless the Democrats find a younger, more appealing candidate
    It`s not about the extent to which Trump is popular - it`s to do with the total vote count and the change this makes to differentials. Clearly Mike disagrees but I`m as sure as can be that Trump would have won in 2020 if it wasn`t for postal voting.

    We can see by the number of votes that Trump and Biden broke records. This is because many many many people voted this time (obvs) who wouldn`t actually have done so in a normal election. Those additional votes broke massively in Biden`s favour and I can`t see how anyone can deny that. (Note that I`m not for a moment agreeing with Trumps claims of corruption. These were of course legitimate votes.)
    All that tells us is that Dem voters were more likely to take Covid seriously and, therefore, much more inclined to vote by post than in person in 2020. Presuming that we’re back to normal in 2024, the propensity of postal votes to be Dem won’t be apparent any longer.
    If the surge in postal voting was purely to do with people (mostly dems) electing to vote by post rather than by polling station due to safety concerns (as you say) then the total turnout wouldn`t have been so exceptionally high.

    There was some of that for sure but there were undoubtedly more votes cast in 2020 because of the rule change in some states to allow postal voting where it wouldn`t previously have been allowed, and these votes would not have materialised in a normal election.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,356

    MaxPB said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1366388333941846016?s=20

    Hopefully this is the last of the terrible days and we can start to look forward to 700-800-900k a day numbers.

    Urrg. Why so low? Is it supply or crappy GPs being slow to contact Group 6ers?
    Weekend numbers.
    Do we know if that's a reflection on activity or of reporting?
    The current theory is that this is actually Saturdays numbers. We will get Sundays tomorrow....
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    Lock her up, and throw away the keys.
    All of them.
    CPAC showed us conservatives who dealt with covid the way conservatives always should have.

    In Noem's speech She claimed Fauci said her strategy would lead to 10,000 SD hospitalisations. They topped out at a little over six hundred.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,236
    edited March 2021
    ..
This discussion has been closed.