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Rishi still betting favourite to succeed Boris but Keir not far behind – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Roger said:
    It's quite a good background piece but the BBC are still tiptoeing around this whole sorry saga. It will be interesting to see if today's evidence changes that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    Maybe. It may be that we gave early warning to the rest of Europe that the Kent variant meant that lockdown regulations had to be materially stepped up and they were able to do that fast enough to stop it getting such a grip. But its curious.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Smithers said:

    The vaccine clusterfuck is not the first example of the myth of German efficiency.

    If you want to know what a shambles the country has become in recent years then dig a little deeper into the sheer fiasco surrounding Berlin’s Brandenberg airport. This podcast “How to Fuck Up an Airport” will serve as a good guide:

    https://www.radiospaetkauf.com/ber/

    Brandenberg airport is going to be a case study in engineering and architectural screwups for decades to come, as well as being a poster child for the failure of public and private sectors to work efficiently together.

    It would have been cheaper and faster - if politically embarrassing - to have knocked the whole damn thing down in 2011, and started again from a hole in the ground.
    True, but at least they built something eventually, unlike us, who haven't built a new runway in or near London for decades (except the small City Airport).
    How long before you think we need a new runway, post-pandemic?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Fishing said:

    I know there is an argument that 'now is not the time' but I really want Sunak to be radical here and show he is taking the finances seriously.

    Increase corporation tax to 23%. Still the lowest in Europe so the arguments about putting off overseas investment really shouldn't hold water.
    Increase Capital Gains tax on unearned income. 10% is way too low compared to earned income tax.
    Remove the age limit on NI contributions. If you are still working after retirement age then you should continue to pay NI just like everyone else.

    Look at converting all the current road/fuel taxes to a pay per mile which will be applicable to all cars whatever their motive system. It has to happen soon anyway otherwise the loss of tax income from electric cars will be crippling.

    Set up an independent commission to look at tax reform including merging NI and Income tax. And perhaps equalising capital gains tax and other taxes all at the same rate as the new combined tax. At the same time the commission should look at the overall tax burden and where reductions can and should be made.

    Personally I think now IS the time. He has an excuse for radical changes and should not let things slip back to 'business as usual'.

    The irish standard corporation tax rate is 12.5%, and Dublin is exactly where lots of business would head if we raised it much here.

    Removing the incentive on people to switch to electric cars wouldn't go down well with Carrie.

    Why do we need an independent commission to look at merging tax and NI? There are plenty of tax experts in government - they should be more than able to produce a list of pros and cons.
    Now the UK has gone you gotta wonder how long the EU will tolerate parasitical tax regimes like Ireland’s.

    Not long, I reckon. 5 years max
    But it's not just Ireland.

    Corporation tax rates In the EU:

    Hungary is 9%, Bulgaria 10%, Ireland 12.5%, Cyprus 12.5%, Lithuania 15%, and then you about seven or eight countries about where the UK is is (i.e. 18-22%) - Poland, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Latvia, Finland, Estonia, Slovakia, Portugal, Norway, and Denmark.

    In the old days it was Ireland on 12.5% and everyone else on 30+%. Competition between nations worked and drove down rates everywhere.
    I think for them that's the crime.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Smithers said:

    The vaccine clusterfuck is not the first example of the myth of German efficiency.

    If you want to know what a shambles the country has become in recent years then dig a little deeper into the sheer fiasco surrounding Berlin’s Brandenberg airport. This podcast “How to Fuck Up an Airport” will serve as a good guide:

    https://www.radiospaetkauf.com/ber/

    Brandenberg airport is going to be a case study in engineering and architectural screwups for decades to come, as well as being a poster child for the failure of public and private sectors to work efficiently together.

    It would have been cheaper and faster - if politically embarrassing - to have knocked the whole damn thing down in 2011, and started again from a hole in the ground.
    True, but at least they built something eventually, unlike us, who haven't built a new runway in or near London for decades (except the small City Airport).
    How long before you think we need a new runway, post-pandemic?
    Given that LHR needed another runway 20 years ago, if they start digging tomorrow it won’t be too soon.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    I'd see it as too liberal at Christmas + the Kent variant.

    France is now up to more than half of cases being the Kent variant.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    Their case for the South China Sea appears to be "It's got China in the name. Stands to reason it's got to be ours...."
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Interesting:

    https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1365107279427760128

    It may be that if you had Long Covid and get vaccinated, your symptoms MAY go away at last.

    Crotty is genuinely one of the leaders in the field of covid immunology research.

    It would make sense - it appears that "Long Covid" covers four syndromes:

    - Post-intensive care syndrome
    - Long-term organ damage from severe covid
    - Post-viral fatigue (from extensive cytokines)
    - Retention of live covid reservoirs deep inside for prolonged periods even when you appear to have recovered.

    This would only affect the fourth of those, but that could be one of the most common sources of Long Covid (especially in those who had mild cases which turned into Long Covid).

    It needs far more research, but as Long Covid will become a more prominent part of our public health concerns going forwards (when acute covid, mercifully, becomes less and less of an issue), it's very encouraging to see possible insights appearing this soon.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    edited February 2021
    Roger said:
    Yes, quite a useful, neutral summary. It will be ironic that Salmond kills off Scottish independence by discrediting the government.

    Both lays.

    I agree. On the Labour side I am backing Angela, Lisa and Rosena, on the Tory side Liz and Priti. All good value imo.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    moonshine said:

    Fishing said:

    Personally I think Starmer and Sunak are both heavily overrated, but in different ways. I don't think Sunak is very competent, but he has good electoral appeal at the moment. But I don't think that SKS has the electoral appeal that Labour's members thought he had. That was why many on the left held their noses and voted for him over more ideologically sympathetic opponents. So I'd personally bet against both favourites at these odds.

    It depends upon your view of the next election. If you think that there's a reasonable chance that Boris Johnson (a) fights it and (b) wins any kind of majority, then one can presumably rule out Starmer and any of the senior players on either side of the Brexit campaign, because under those circumstances it'll surely be time to move on to the next generation by the time Johnson retires.

    At a guess, and already leading Labour 2-0 on promoting female Prime Ministers, the Tories might be minded to go for a non-white leader next time, although if anyone from the 2019 intake defending a Red Wall seat really stands out then they could also be attractive. There are some candidates already in Government, of course, but the next Prime Minister could very well still be on the backbenches.
    It seems a long time ago now that that there were all those exclusives on Boris being glum because he couldn’t afford a nanny, his friends leaking he was going to call it a day in the spring, lots of sad violin music about him having the shortest premiership in X decades etc...

    Perhaps he still will step down but there’s not a whisper of it anymore is there? Hard to see beyond a second (reduced) majority for him right now. 12-18 months of wobbly markets and employment stats ahead, before a new boom starts to kick in maybe late 2022 and in full swing by May 2024. He might even choose another pre Christmas election in 2023.

    Next PM market looks a total punt in this context.
    I admire your optimism regarding this boom.

    If we are back up and running pre-Covid levels in 18 months Sunak and Johnson are indeed the cash-spaffing, world-economy-saving, geniuses their supporters claim.

    I believe we will still be paying for Covid on so many levels in 18 years,let alone this notion that it will all be a bad memory in 18 months.

    By the way I hope you are right.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    Maybe. It may be that we gave early warning to the rest of Europe that the Kent variant meant that lockdown regulations had to be materially stepped up and they were able to do that fast enough to stop it getting such a grip. But its curious.
    The biggest question I have over the Kent variant is that Greenwich (very close to the epicenter of this spread) was adamant that Schools needed to be closed on December 14th yet the Government only reacted a few days later and then didn't fully respond until January 4th.

    It's very surprising that things weren't picked up earlier given what we now know was known at the time..
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,753
    edited February 2021
    Tin ears, part of an ongoing series.

    As the tweeter suggests, doesn’t multilateral disarmament, the policy to which various UK governments have at least paid lip service, precisely involve negotiation?

    https://twitter.com/tom_gann/status/1365076108622893059?s=21
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Smithers said:

    The vaccine clusterfuck is not the first example of the myth of German efficiency.

    If you want to know what a shambles the country has become in recent years then dig a little deeper into the sheer fiasco surrounding Berlin’s Brandenberg airport. This podcast “How to Fuck Up an Airport” will serve as a good guide:

    https://www.radiospaetkauf.com/ber/

    Brandenberg airport is going to be a case study in engineering and architectural screwups for decades to come, as well as being a poster child for the failure of public and private sectors to work efficiently together.

    It would have been cheaper and faster - if politically embarrassing - to have knocked the whole damn thing down in 2011, and started again from a hole in the ground.
    True, but at least they built something eventually, unlike us, who haven't built a new runway in or near London for decades (except the small City Airport).
    How long before you think we need a new runway, post-pandemic?
    Given that LHR needed another runway 20 years ago, if they start digging tomorrow it won’t be too soon.
    It's LHR though, why would you be rushing to fly there.
  • felix said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    In Germany the policy is to have a dose already in storage for every dose administered, so there is a guarantee that when you have a first dose that there is a second dose with your name on it in a fridge or freezer in your Bundesland (or even more locally). It is, in my opinion, a stupid policy. But it means for the first 3 weeks of a vaccine (and AZ only started here less than 3 weeks ago) the absolute maximum % of doses administered can be 50%.

    Of course it's going to be a lot less than that because there's a lag between doses being delivered to a Bundesland and actually getting into someone's arm. Probably going to be significantly longer in Germany because a doctor has to be involved in every vaccination, and there are forms to fill in. And because the health system is so fragmented here.

    This is made worse by the decision not recommend one vaccine for over 65s, when this is the group that has first priority. There seems to be a lack of coordination to redirect the AZ doses to younger priority groups, also partly due to the fragmented systems here, but also the incredible lack of any national leadership (which has been a problem with this pandemic in Germany for over a year now).

    There's also an additional reporting lag between jabs happening and getting counted nationally. These lags obviously make a much bigger difference in percentage terms at the start.

    No doubt there is also greater hesitancy about the AZ (which already started in December with the reports that it had lower efficacy AND the confusion about the trials and accidentally giving people half a dose and so on, which made people already somewhat hesitant about any vaccine, much more hesitant about this one).

    But the reporting of this - "only 13% of doses in Germany administered because people don't trust the vaccine" - is in itself totally irresponsible, people are going to be reasonably thinking "if the vast majority of people are refusing it, then I should too" and the problem will get even worse.

    What is the German for 'clusterfuck'?
    DieimpfbeschaffungskatastrophederEuropäischenUnion
  • Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Wet hand-wringers over the West's past are China's useful idiots for its 21st Century foreign policy, and will be richly exploited to further its own ends - with a funding, dark ops, state hacking and social media platform manipulation to egg it on.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    In Germany the policy is to have a dose already in storage for every dose administered, so there is a guarantee that when you have a first dose that there is a second dose with your name on it in a fridge or freezer in your Bundesland (or even more locally). It is, in my opinion, a stupid policy. But it means for the first 3 weeks of a vaccine (and AZ only started here less than 3 weeks ago) the absolute maximum % of doses administered can be 50%.

    Of course it's going to be a lot less than that because there's a lag between doses being delivered to a Bundesland and actually getting into someone's arm. Probably going to be significantly longer in Germany because a doctor has to be involved in every vaccination, and there are forms to fill in. And because the health system is so fragmented here.

    This is made worse by the decision not recommend one vaccine for over 65s, when this is the group that has first priority. There seems to be a lack of coordination to redirect the AZ doses to younger priority groups, also partly due to the fragmented systems here, but also the incredible lack of any national leadership (which has been a problem with this pandemic in Germany for over a year now).

    There's also an additional reporting lag between jabs happening and getting counted nationally. These lags obviously make a much bigger difference in percentage terms at the start.

    No doubt there is also greater hesitancy about the AZ (which already started in December with the reports that it had lower efficacy AND the confusion about the trials and accidentally giving people half a dose and so on, which made people already somewhat hesitant about any vaccine, much more hesitant about this one).

    But the reporting of this - "only 13% of doses in Germany administered because people don't trust the vaccine" - is in itself totally irresponsible, people are going to be reasonably thinking "if the vast majority of people are refusing it, then I should too" and the problem will get even worse.

    What is the German for 'clusterfuck'?
    I believe it is "Die AstraZeneca"
    Vorsprung durch fucknik
    POTD!!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    I'd see it as too liberal at Christmas + the Kent variant.

    France is now up to more than half of cases being the Kent variant.
    It looks from here as if France is in a world of trouble, and may already be too late to do anything about it, even if there was the political will to act seriously (which it looks as if there isn't). We've learnt (well i hope we have) the hard way. Twice.

    And compounded even further by their vaccine programme (if it can even be called a programme).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093
    edited February 2021
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    Maybe. It may be that we gave early warning to the rest of Europe that the Kent variant meant that lockdown regulations had to be materially stepped up and they were able to do that fast enough to stop it getting such a grip. But its curious.
    Although Krazy Kent Kovid is clearly more transmissible, thank goodness that the difference is less than it could have been- my memory is genuine fears in January that even the UK's January lockdown wouldn't be enough, but infections have fallen away with a 2 week half-life, pretty much like in the Spring 2020 lockdown.

    So then we come back to the other things that 2020 showed, which follow pretty easily from germ theory and maths. First, the restrictions to hold everything flat are much less burdensome than those needed to squash a peak, especially if you can have the windows open. (Hopefully, some of the upticks or slowing downticks we're seeing are from the cold snap- was that really only a fortnight ago?). Second, anticipation is the name of the game- don't wait for a spike before tightening up. And boy, England botched that in December.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Tin ears, part of an ongoing series.

    As the tweeter suggests, doesn’t multilateral disarmament, the policy to which various UK governments have at least paid lip service, precisely involve negotiation?

    https://twitter.com/tom_gann/status/1365076108622893059?s=21

    Depressing that Labour leaders think they have to become Tories to gain power. In Starmer's case if only he knew it not being Corbyn would have been enough.

    ....And think how much he could have saved on flags.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    They perhaps remember the pre opium wars geography. China was bigger then.

    I think though that it would be more effective once control of the Seas is established to get better support from diaspora Chinese. Much of the SE Asian economy is run by this community.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:
    Yes, quite a useful, neutral summary. It will be ironic that Salmond kills off Scottish independence by discrediting the government.
    There are I think those who see Independence as the only realistic route to breaking SNP dominance and returning to a competitive political system that focusses on the things that matter.

  • On topic, these measures will only raise an extra £4-5 billion (and that's before he starts giveaways elsewhere) so given we're probably 40-50 billion shy of where we need to be with tax receipts to fund current spending plans, long term, I presume this is just to signal intent to the bond market.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    Maybe. It may be that we gave early warning to the rest of Europe that the Kent variant meant that lockdown regulations had to be materially stepped up and they were able to do that fast enough to stop it getting such a grip. But its curious.
    The biggest question I have over the Kent variant is that Greenwich (very close to the epicenter of this spread) was adamant that Schools needed to be closed on December 14th yet the Government only reacted a few days later and then didn't fully respond until January 4th.

    It's very surprising that things weren't picked up earlier given what we now know was known at the time..
    Well I think that is reasonably well explained by the fact that Gavin Williamson is a complete idiot.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited February 2021
    alex_ said:



    It looks from here as if France is in a world of trouble, and may already be too late to do anything about it, even if there was the political will to act seriously (which it looks as if there isn't). We've learnt (well i hope we have) the hard way. Twice.

    And compounded even further by their vaccine programme (if it can even be called a programme).

    France is running at 20,000+ cases a day except on Sundays why 80% of the country seems to have the day off since January. What's surprising is that the case numbers aren't going down nor significantly increasing.

    Meanwhile a lot of Europe seems to be at the beginning of another upward trend.
  • Roger said:

    Tin ears, part of an ongoing series.

    As the tweeter suggests, doesn’t multilateral disarmament, the policy to which various UK governments have at least paid lip service, precisely involve negotiation?

    https://twitter.com/tom_gann/status/1365076108622893059?s=21

    Depressing that Labour leaders think they have to become Tories to gain power. In Starmer's case if only he knew it not being Corbyn would have been enough.

    ....And think how much he could have saved on flags.
    Look up the last Labour administration's policy on this - at all of the three general elections it won, and under both of its Prime Minister's.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,462

    kjh said:

    BBC News - Mr Potato Head to lose "Mr" title in gender-neutral rebrand
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56200811

    I thought covid pandemic was supposed to put an end to this nonsense?

    Surely the manufacturer is driven by profit not political correctness. I don't give a toss whether they have the title Mr or not, but if in their judgement it makes the product more marketable then it is the correct decision. They might be wrong, but it is surely a good Conservative principle and not wokeness.
    Should all the Mr Men charcters now lose the Mr ?
    Nope. But not my decision. Entirely up to the author.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    eek said:

    alex_ said:



    It looks from here as if France is in a world of trouble, and may already be too late to do anything about it, even if there was the political will to act seriously (which it looks as if there isn't). We've learnt (well i hope we have) the hard way. Twice.

    And compounded even further by their vaccine programme (if it can even be called a programme).

    France is running at 20,000+ cases a day except on Sundays why 80% of the country seems to have the day off since January. What's surprising is that the case numbers aren't going down nor significantly increasing.
    I suspect a combination of testing capacity and substitution (UK variant for other variant). But they are starting to rise now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    Maybe. It may be that we gave early warning to the rest of Europe that the Kent variant meant that lockdown regulations had to be materially stepped up and they were able to do that fast enough to stop it getting such a grip. But its curious.
    Although Krazy Kent Kovid is clearly more transmissible, thank goodness that the difference is less than it could have been- my memory is genuine fears in January that even the UK's January lockdown wouldn't be enough, but infections have fallen away with a 2 week half-life, pretty much like in the Spring 2020 lockdown.

    So then we come back to the other things that 2020 showed, which follow pretty easily from germ theory and maths. First, the restrictions to hold everything flat are much less burdensome than those needed to squash a peak, especially if you can have the windows open. (Hopefully, some of the upticks or slowing downticks we're seeing are from the cold snap- was that really only a fortnight ago?). Second, anticipation is the name of the game- don't wait for a spike before tightening up. And boy, England botched that in December.
    We did but in fairness this is mainly in hindsight. We were deep into December before it was understood that the rules of the game had materially changed and we only picked that up because of the genome work and the test and tracing efforts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Smithers said:

    The vaccine clusterfuck is not the first example of the myth of German efficiency.

    If you want to know what a shambles the country has become in recent years then dig a little deeper into the sheer fiasco surrounding Berlin’s Brandenberg airport. This podcast “How to Fuck Up an Airport” will serve as a good guide:

    https://www.radiospaetkauf.com/ber/

    Brandenberg airport is going to be a case study in engineering and architectural screwups for decades to come, as well as being a poster child for the failure of public and private sectors to work efficiently together.

    It would have been cheaper and faster - if politically embarrassing - to have knocked the whole damn thing down in 2011, and started again from a hole in the ground.
    True, but at least they built something eventually, unlike us, who haven't built a new runway in or near London for decades (except the small City Airport).
    How long before you think we need a new runway, post-pandemic?
    Given that LHR needed another runway 20 years ago, if they start digging tomorrow it won’t be too soon.
    It's LHR though, why would you be rushing to fly there.
    Would you rather everyone went to LBA, with its high elevation and badly orientated runways? Because the pilots really love landing sideways in fog!

    They’re all rubbish, but LHR is the best of a bad bunch. It’s rather refreshing not to have been on a plane in over a year to be honest, don’t miss all the hassle of travelling.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    alex_ said:



    It looks from here as if France is in a world of trouble, and may already be too late to do anything about it, even if there was the political will to act seriously (which it looks as if there isn't). We've learnt (well i hope we have) the hard way. Twice.

    And compounded even further by their vaccine programme (if it can even be called a programme).

    I've characterised the English response to Covid as good start, woeful middle, strong finish. (With a bit of devolved twatting around the edges by Scotland, Wales, NI when a single UK response would have been far simpler and stronger.)

    I'd characterise the EU response as strong start, good middle, woeful finish. That finish now may well be months delayed. With a tranche of the most vulnerable - the over 65s - left unvaccinated for a spiteful bit of politics that will haunt the EU when this is all over. In the form of the ghosts of thousands of unnecessary dead.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    They perhaps remember the pre opium wars geography. China was bigger then.

    I think though that it would be more effective once control of the Seas is established to get better support from diaspora Chinese. Much of the SE Asian economy is run by this community.
    I am not sure that their policies towards Hong Kong have been optimal in that respect.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    edited February 2021
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    Maybe. It may be that we gave early warning to the rest of Europe that the Kent variant meant that lockdown regulations had to be materially stepped up and they were able to do that fast enough to stop it getting such a grip. But its curious.
    The biggest question I have over the Kent variant is that Greenwich (very close to the epicenter of this spread) was adamant that Schools needed to be closed on December 14th yet the Government only reacted a few days later and then didn't fully respond until January 4th.

    It's very surprising that things weren't picked up earlier given what we now know was known at the time..
    Remember France instantly closing the border? A correct decision in most respects.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    Roger said:

    Tin ears, part of an ongoing series.

    As the tweeter suggests, doesn’t multilateral disarmament, the policy to which various UK governments have at least paid lip service, precisely involve negotiation?

    https://twitter.com/tom_gann/status/1365076108622893059?s=21

    Depressing that Labour leaders think they have to become Tories to gain power. In Starmer's case if only he knew it not being Corbyn would have been enough.

    ....And think how much he could have saved on flags.
    I think this is the sort of bollocks that boosts the Green vote. Trident is part of an obsolete cold war that ended 30 years ago and should be scrapped.

    Reasons to turn out for Labour get fewer every week.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,676
    Roger said:
    My arse, the fake state propaganda unit story.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    Still believe they are entitled to all under heaven, just being a bit more formal about it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    So how come it used to be a lot smaller?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Roger said:

    Tin ears, part of an ongoing series.

    As the tweeter suggests, doesn’t multilateral disarmament, the policy to which various UK governments have at least paid lip service, precisely involve negotiation?

    https://twitter.com/tom_gann/status/1365076108622893059?s=21

    Depressing that Labour leaders think they have to become Tories to gain power. In Starmer's case if only he knew it not being Corbyn would have been enough.

    ....And think how much he could have saved on flags.
    I'm not sure how many folk will notice this today. The only political event today starts at 12.30 pm....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Tin ears, part of an ongoing series.

    As the tweeter suggests, doesn’t multilateral disarmament, the policy to which various UK governments have at least paid lip service, precisely involve negotiation?

    https://twitter.com/tom_gann/status/1365076108622893059?s=21

    Depressing that Labour leaders think they have to become Tories to gain power. In Starmer's case if only he knew it not being Corbyn would have been enough.

    ....And think how much he could have saved on flags.
    I think this is the sort of bollocks that boosts the Green vote. Trident is part of an obsolete cold war that ended 30 years ago and should be scrapped.

    Reasons to turn out for Labour get fewer every week.
    Out of curiosity, would you be comfortable with the USA and France getting rid of their nukes as well?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,676
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:
    Yes, quite a useful, neutral summary. It will be ironic that Salmond kills off Scottish independence by discrediting the government.

    Both lays.

    I agree. On the Labour side I am backing Angela, Lisa and Rosena, on the Tory side Liz and Priti. All good value imo.
    It will not kill independence, the SNP are not the YES votes. They will need to clear out the wrong un's , sort themselves out and get back to their real purpose or they will be in the bin.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    Maybe. It may be that we gave early warning to the rest of Europe that the Kent variant meant that lockdown regulations had to be materially stepped up and they were able to do that fast enough to stop it getting such a grip. But its curious.
    Although Krazy Kent Kovid is clearly more transmissible, thank goodness that the difference is less than it could have been- my memory is genuine fears in January that even the UK's January lockdown wouldn't be enough, but infections have fallen away with a 2 week half-life, pretty much like in the Spring 2020 lockdown.

    So then we come back to the other things that 2020 showed, which follow pretty easily from germ theory and maths. First, the restrictions to hold everything flat are much less burdensome than those needed to squash a peak, especially if you can have the windows open. (Hopefully, some of the upticks or slowing downticks we're seeing are from the cold snap- was that really only a fortnight ago?). Second, anticipation is the name of the game- don't wait for a spike before tightening up. And boy, England botched that in December.
    The real drop of started around the same time as the initial vaccines becoming effective, I'm sure there is a correlation between vaccine numbers going up and cases coming down in the UK as well as lockdown.

    On the road not taken with a poor vaccine rollout I do wonder whether our NPIs would have been enough for a 2 week halving period (which is actually slower than the 8-10 days we had in the first wave) or would it gave been 3-4 weeks as many feared.

    The latter seems to be where France is at now, surge of the Kent variant, lack of government intervention with lockdown but no rapid vaccination programme. I have no doubt that there will be a lockdown in France in the next couple of weeks, hopefully they will do enough to be able to bring cases down rapidly as we have but without needing the extra boost of a wide vaccine programme.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,765
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    Maybe. It may be that we gave early warning to the rest of Europe that the Kent variant meant that lockdown regulations had to be materially stepped up and they were able to do that fast enough to stop it getting such a grip. But its curious.
    The biggest question I have over the Kent variant is that Greenwich (very close to the epicenter of this spread) was adamant that Schools needed to be closed on December 14th yet the Government only reacted a few days later and then didn't fully respond until January 4th.

    It's very surprising that things weren't picked up earlier given what we now know was known at the time..
    Because the DfE care about being in charge, not about doing what’s sensible. Even if they know what’s sensible, which is a bit doubtful.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,765
    edited February 2021
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    Maybe. It may be that we gave early warning to the rest of Europe that the Kent variant meant that lockdown regulations had to be materially stepped up and they were able to do that fast enough to stop it getting such a grip. But its curious.
    The biggest question I have over the Kent variant is that Greenwich (very close to the epicenter of this spread) was adamant that Schools needed to be closed on December 14th yet the Government only reacted a few days later and then didn't fully respond until January 4th.

    It's very surprising that things weren't picked up earlier given what we now know was known at the time..
    Well I think that is reasonably well explained by the fact that Gavin Williamson is a complete idiot.
    That too.

    Although he’s better than Nick Gibb.

    Edit - you’re probably our best informed Scottish poster, certainly on education matters. I gather there was a survey carried on the impact of mask wearing in Scottish schools. Do you know if it was ever completed or published?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:
    Yes, quite a useful, neutral summary. It will be ironic that Salmond kills off Scottish independence by discrediting the government .
    If only.
  • tlg86 said:

    Here's what I don't get about Tories and public spending. We used to have this thing called "capitalism". This is a fairly simple thing - in order to sell your product or service you need to have willing punters who both desire your product or service and have the cash to pay for it.

    Its in everyone's interests for punters to have free cash to consume with, yet increasingly over the last 20 years Tories have seen the idea of poor people being in anything other than poverty as being akin to encouraging their degenerate behaviour.

    Sunak could start with two basic principles:
    1. Social Security (drop "benefits" FFS) is there as a safety net for our economy. In ensuring a minimum standard of living for everyone it ensures the continuation of our way of life as a nation driven by commerce.
    2. Investment - especially long term investment - is golden. By borrowing money to invest in key infrastructure the government enables the better functioning of the economy and delivers a return on that investment. Drop "subsidy" FFS - it should be investment.

    Do these two things and reframe the entire narrative. Its no longer about scroungers getting benefits, its consumers being enabled to keep you in your job buying things. Its not "how can we afford it", its "how can we afford not to". In cities like Manchester the corporation installed things like the pneumatic network enabling industry to move in and power machines. The market could never provide the infrastructure, so local government had to.

    It is the same with fibre broadband, with roads, with railway electrification, with major renewable energy projects etc etc. Flip the debate, make investment the goal. Too many Tories respond to almost every public investment project with "how will we pay for this". Tike that changed.

    Hang on, weren't you saying the other day that large parts of our economy were ecologically unsustainable? All those delivery drivers polluting the atmosphere etc.?
    Absolutely! Not sure its a "large" part but it needs to be made sustainable and quickly to stop it becoming a real problem. I am not arguing for unfettered "fuck the planet for profits" capitalism.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    They perhaps remember the pre opium wars geography. China was bigger then.

    I think though that it would be more effective once control of the Seas is established to get better support from diaspora Chinese. Much of the SE Asian economy is run by this community.
    I am not sure that their policies towards Hong Kong have been optimal in that respect.
    I agree, they did much better with the softly softly approach of 5 years ago. There is no need to be quite so Totalitarian, indeed it shows declining self confidence in their system.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited February 2021
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Smithers said:

    The vaccine clusterfuck is not the first example of the myth of German efficiency.

    If you want to know what a shambles the country has become in recent years then dig a little deeper into the sheer fiasco surrounding Berlin’s Brandenberg airport. This podcast “How to Fuck Up an Airport” will serve as a good guide:

    https://www.radiospaetkauf.com/ber/

    Brandenberg airport is going to be a case study in engineering and architectural screwups for decades to come, as well as being a poster child for the failure of public and private sectors to work efficiently together.

    It would have been cheaper and faster - if politically embarrassing - to have knocked the whole damn thing down in 2011, and started again from a hole in the ground.
    True, but at least they built something eventually, unlike us, who haven't built a new runway in or near London for decades (except the small City Airport).
    How long before you think we need a new runway, post-pandemic?
    Given that LHR needed another runway 20 years ago, if they start digging tomorrow it won’t be too soon.
    It's LHR though, why would you be rushing to fly there.
    Would you rather everyone went to LBA, with its high elevation and badly orientated runways? Because the pilots really love landing sideways in fog!

    They’re all rubbish, but LHR is the best of a bad bunch. It’s rather refreshing not to have been on a plane in over a year to be honest, don’t miss all the hassle of travelling.
    I do rather let it wash over me - but I actually don't mind it.

    MME - AMS followed by wherever is far easier than most other options simply because Schiphol doesn't add any complexity to it - you land, you walk, you arrive at the appropriate other gate (usually after 1/2 a bottle of Cava).

    I've discovered other the years that it's not the journey length that makes things difficult it's the number of steps.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    Maybe. It may be that we gave early warning to the rest of Europe that the Kent variant meant that lockdown regulations had to be materially stepped up and they were able to do that fast enough to stop it getting such a grip. But its curious.
    Although Krazy Kent Kovid is clearly more transmissible, thank goodness that the difference is less than it could have been- my memory is genuine fears in January that even the UK's January lockdown wouldn't be enough, but infections have fallen away with a 2 week half-life, pretty much like in the Spring 2020 lockdown.

    So then we come back to the other things that 2020 showed, which follow pretty easily from germ theory and maths. First, the restrictions to hold everything flat are much less burdensome than those needed to squash a peak, especially if you can have the windows open. (Hopefully, some of the upticks or slowing downticks we're seeing are from the cold snap- was that really only a fortnight ago?). Second, anticipation is the name of the game- don't wait for a spike before tightening up. And boy, England botched that in December.
    We did but in fairness this is mainly in hindsight. We were deep into December before it was understood that the rules of the game had materially changed and we only picked that up because of the genome work and the test and tracing efforts.
    I'm not so sure. The local data in the South East weren't behaving themselves in the second half of the November lockdown. Even if the dots had not been joined up with the genomics, the prudence principle dictated a much more gentle release than happened- hence the scramble back up the tiers in December.

    But the worst mistake of all was Twixtmas. When the Christmas plans were first mooted, it was obvious that even limited extra mixing would have to be paid for by a subsequent hard lockdown straight afterwards. The other bits of the British Isles managed that, and their January spikes were much lower than England's. In much of England, nothing happened until primary schools had gone back for a day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,765
    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    So how come it used to be a lot smaller?
    The Chinese themselves dispute that.

    You may find this article of interest:

    http://www.martinjacques.com/articles/civilization-state-versus-nation-state-2/
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    Yep.

    Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).

    Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.

    And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.





    That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.

    Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.

    It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
    Agree with all of that.
    I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
    Maybe. It may be that we gave early warning to the rest of Europe that the Kent variant meant that lockdown regulations had to be materially stepped up and they were able to do that fast enough to stop it getting such a grip. But its curious.
    The biggest question I have over the Kent variant is that Greenwich (very close to the epicenter of this spread) was adamant that Schools needed to be closed on December 14th yet the Government only reacted a few days later and then didn't fully respond until January 4th.

    It's very surprising that things weren't picked up earlier given what we now know was known at the time..
    Actually, the government reacted very quickly to Greenwich's desire to close its schools on 14/12: Gavin Williamson sent them a letter threatening legal action if they went ahead. Only to have to backtrack a week later. What a hero he is, so astute.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    They perhaps remember the pre opium wars geography. China was bigger then.

    I think though that it would be more effective once control of the Seas is established to get better support from diaspora Chinese. Much of the SE Asian economy is run by this community.
    I am not sure that their policies towards Hong Kong have been optimal in that respect.
    I agree, they did much better with the softly softly approach of 5 years ago. There is no need to be quite so Totalitarian, indeed it shows declining self confidence in their system.
    On Hong Kong it has worked, more or less, but seems to have been done out of panic. The regime actually believed its own nonsense propaganda about support there and was surprised at the parish elections. They had to act, and Covid gave them time by pushing back the legislative elections.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Smithers said:

    The vaccine clusterfuck is not the first example of the myth of German efficiency.

    If you want to know what a shambles the country has become in recent years then dig a little deeper into the sheer fiasco surrounding Berlin’s Brandenberg airport. This podcast “How to Fuck Up an Airport” will serve as a good guide:

    https://www.radiospaetkauf.com/ber/

    Brandenberg airport is going to be a case study in engineering and architectural screwups for decades to come, as well as being a poster child for the failure of public and private sectors to work efficiently together.

    It would have been cheaper and faster - if politically embarrassing - to have knocked the whole damn thing down in 2011, and started again from a hole in the ground.
    True, but at least they built something eventually, unlike us, who haven't built a new runway in or near London for decades (except the small City Airport).
    How long before you think we need a new runway, post-pandemic?
    There hasn't been a new runway built in the UK since WW2. This won't change in my lifetime.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    edited February 2021
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    So how come it used to be a lot smaller?
    The Chinese themselves dispute that.

    You may find this article of interest:

    http://www.martinjacques.com/articles/civilization-state-versus-nation-state-2/
    Bring back the Angevin Empire :-) .

    I watched a really interesting 6-part Youtube series about the Opium Wars by Mark Fenton recently. It was after my history tuition at school stopped.

    Historia enough to be comprehensible. Opinionated enough to be thought-provoking.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4heo4SObOM
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited February 2021
    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:
    Yes, quite a useful, neutral summary. It will be ironic that Salmond kills off Scottish independence by discrediting the government.

    Both lays.

    I agree. On the Labour side I am backing Angela, Lisa and Rosena, on the Tory side Liz and Priti. All good value imo.
    It will not kill independence, the SNP are not the YES votes. They will need to clear out the wrong un's , sort themselves out and get back to their real purpose or they will be in the bin.
    Good morning Malc.

    I have not been a fan of Salmond but the more this goes on with cover ups and Sturgeon and her husband seemingly in cohorts the more I am beginning to sympathise with him

    This whole story is very murky and not a good look
  • Roger said:
    With so many of these conspiracies there is either a smoking gun or a smoking turd - either way it is wise to do the sniff test.

    I can believe many things in politics. But the fundamental accusation is that 9 women perjured themselves to lie in court motivated by a conspiracy to bring down one of their own politicians.

    I smell poo rather than cordite.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,765
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    So how come it used to be a lot smaller?
    The Chinese themselves dispute that.

    You may find this article of interest:

    http://www.martinjacques.com/articles/civilization-state-versus-nation-state-2/
    Bring back the Angevin Empire :-) .
    Angevin? The Danish Empire waves hello.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    edited February 2021
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Smithers said:

    The vaccine clusterfuck is not the first example of the myth of German efficiency.

    If you want to know what a shambles the country has become in recent years then dig a little deeper into the sheer fiasco surrounding Berlin’s Brandenberg airport. This podcast “How to Fuck Up an Airport” will serve as a good guide:

    https://www.radiospaetkauf.com/ber/

    Brandenberg airport is going to be a case study in engineering and architectural screwups for decades to come, as well as being a poster child for the failure of public and private sectors to work efficiently together.

    It would have been cheaper and faster - if politically embarrassing - to have knocked the whole damn thing down in 2011, and started again from a hole in the ground.
    True, but at least they built something eventually, unlike us, who haven't built a new runway in or near London for decades (except the small City Airport).
    How long before you think we need a new runway, post-pandemic?
    Given that LHR needed another runway 20 years ago, if they start digging tomorrow it won’t be too soon.
    It's LHR though, why would you be rushing to fly there.
    Would you rather everyone went to LBA, with its high elevation and badly orientated runways? Because the pilots really love landing sideways in fog!

    They’re all rubbish, but LHR is the best of a bad bunch. It’s rather refreshing not to have been on a plane in over a year to be honest, don’t miss all the hassle of travelling.
    I do rather let it wash over me - but I actually don't mind it.

    MME - AMS followed by wherever is far easier than most other options simply because Schiphol doesn't add any complexity to it - you land, you walk, you arrive at the appropriate other gate (usually after 1/2 a bottle of Cava).

    I've discovered other the years that it's not the journey length that makes things difficult it's the number of steps.
    I'd probably go for LBRUM.

    That's where I flew from last time - into Brum to pick up the £2 a day hire-Brompton, and back to the urport for a flight to Istanbul.
  • MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    So how come it used to be a lot smaller?
    The Chinese themselves dispute that.

    You may find this article of interest:

    http://www.martinjacques.com/articles/civilization-state-versus-nation-state-2/
    Bring back the Angevin Empire :-) .

    I watched a really interesting 6-part Youtube series about the Opium Wars by Mark Fenton recently. It was after my history tuition at school stopped.

    Historia enough to be comprehensible. Opinionated enough to be thought-provoking.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4heo4SObOM
    The Opium Wars were the real HIGH of the British Empire.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Roger said:
    With so many of these conspiracies there is either a smoking gun or a smoking turd - either way it is wise to do the sniff test.

    I can believe many things in politics. But the fundamental accusation is that 9 women perjured themselves to lie in court motivated by a conspiracy to bring down one of their own politicians.

    I smell poo rather than cordite.
    Could be a middle ground? That they didn't perjury themselves but political figures manipulated them and the system to try to take him down?

    IDK, it does require a lot, and how to prove that? Dates of what heard when being inconsistent isn't likely to sway masses on it's own.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:
    Yes, quite a useful, neutral summary. It will be ironic that Salmond kills off Scottish independence by discrediting the government.

    Both lays.

    I agree. On the Labour side I am backing Angela, Lisa and Rosena, on the Tory side Liz and Priti. All good value imo.
    It will not kill independence, the SNP are not the YES votes. They will need to clear out the wrong un's , sort themselves out and get back to their real purpose or they will be in the bin.
    Morning, malcy. Good to see you back. Trust you and the good Lady are both fine?

    For what it's worth, I see parallels between Sturgeon's brass neck in toughing it out when (on any objective assessment) she has been caught out lying such that she has to resign, and the SNP's brass neck in refusing to admit that there were big holes in the case for independence that needed addressing before you win over the required majority for Yes.

  • theProle said:

    The problem with paying the "poor" ever increasing amounts of benefits to be "poor" is that it makes it ever harder for employers to complete with benefits sufficiently to attract some of these people into work.

    And the problem with government "investment" is that very often it is nothing of the sort, at least in financial terms - a lot of the things governments are pressured to "invest" in either generate no return at-all (e. g. shiny new school buildings), or less return than other more normal things (e.g. railway electrification has a payback time of decades if ever).

    Decades is the timescale we need to be focused on. It is a simple observable reality that the UK has fallen significantly behind competitor countries on infrastructure. We are overly reliant on foreign energy (and a foreign high-dubious government to build a nuclear solution), have ludicrously low-capacity roads in large parts of the country, have a railway system that is both slow and desperately trying to dodge the electrification bullet, have too many old and crumbling schools and hospitals where we spend £lots yet see little on the front line thanks to marketisation.

    As for "benefits" the first thing we do id go back to the 80s and call it social security. It isn't a "benefit" that people are "entitled" to. It is security from the 5 ills. And never mind the outrageous abuses of people not in work by UC, look at the outrageous abuses of people in work.

    Some employers and the political class led by the Tories want an underclass they can exploit - the jobbing economy of people who will never be comfortable no matter how hard they work. Moving back to a Rowntree / Level / Ford model must be the goal. A radical concept where employees have sufficient wages and protections as to enable them to afford to consume the stuff their produce.

    This used to be called capitalism. We let it die and replaced it with bankism where instead of paying people wages enabling them to consume, you instead make money giving them Ocean Finance / Wonga style credit. Very profitable for the brief period before it collapses, utterly unsustainable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Floater said:
    Biden's first airstrike then about a month into his Presidency
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    Brains Trust.

    Does anyone have an inkling how well the Digital Services Tax is working? (2% levy on UK turnover of large online businesses).

    Amounts raised are small, but we are flying nearly alone on this one internationally.

    Presumably we get some information in the budget docs.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    The EU is suddenly afraid of deteriorating relations with the UK.
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1365184523923820544?s=21
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited February 2021
    Dura_Ace said:

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Smithers said:

    The vaccine clusterfuck is not the first example of the myth of German efficiency.

    If you want to know what a shambles the country has become in recent years then dig a little deeper into the sheer fiasco surrounding Berlin’s Brandenberg airport. This podcast “How to Fuck Up an Airport” will serve as a good guide:

    https://www.radiospaetkauf.com/ber/

    Brandenberg airport is going to be a case study in engineering and architectural screwups for decades to come, as well as being a poster child for the failure of public and private sectors to work efficiently together.

    It would have been cheaper and faster - if politically embarrassing - to have knocked the whole damn thing down in 2011, and started again from a hole in the ground.
    True, but at least they built something eventually, unlike us, who haven't built a new runway in or near London for decades (except the small City Airport).
    How long before you think we need a new runway, post-pandemic?
    There hasn't been a new runway built in the UK since WW2. This won't change in my lifetime.
    Although your "lifetime" is an elastic point, depending on whether your other half has hidden your bike keys....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,765
    edited February 2021
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:
    With so many of these conspiracies there is either a smoking gun or a smoking turd - either way it is wise to do the sniff test.

    I can believe many things in politics. But the fundamental accusation is that 9 women perjured themselves to lie in court motivated by a conspiracy to bring down one of their own politicians.

    I smell poo rather than cordite.
    Could be a middle ground? That they didn't perjury themselves but political figures manipulated them and the system to try to take him down?

    IDK, it does require a lot, and how to prove that? Dates of what heard when being inconsistent isn't likely to sway masses on it's own.
    Actually, the middle ground is that the women were telling the truth, albeit that the conduct complained of was judged to be boorish rather than criminal, and that Sturgeon had up until that point been manipulating events to try and hush it up either because she didn’t believe the women out of fear it would damage the SNP.

    Which would explain both why she is so furious with Salmond now, and why she seems to have suffered mysterious memory loss about key events.

    Teaching beckons. Have a good morning.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    The EU is suddenly afraid of deteriorating relations with the UK.
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1365184523923820544?s=21

    It is ambiguous though. Could equally mean they think they are being too nice
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    The issue with the next PM betting is that Sunak is only likely to take over if the polling shows we are heading for a Labour victory in 2024 and the Tories need to replace Boris with Sunak to see off Starmer. Much as Major replaced Thatcher in 1990 after Kinnock took a clear poll lead after the poll tax.

    For Starmer to be the next PM, the likeliest route is for Labour and the Tories to be neck and neck in the polls and for him to win enough seats to form a minority government in 2024 in a hung parliament but not poll so well that the Tories look to replace Boris as party leader and PM.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Pagan2 said:

    The EU is suddenly afraid of deteriorating relations with the UK.
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1365184523923820544?s=21

    It is ambiguous though. Could equally mean they think they are being too nice
    There’s a whole thread.
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1365184526335569925?s=21
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    edited February 2021

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    So how come it used to be a lot smaller?
    The Chinese themselves dispute that.

    You may find this article of interest:

    http://www.martinjacques.com/articles/civilization-state-versus-nation-state-2/
    Bring back the Angevin Empire :-) .

    I watched a really interesting 6-part Youtube series about the Opium Wars by Mark Fenton recently. It was after my history tuition at school stopped.

    Historia enough to be comprehensible. Opinionated enough to be thought-provoking.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4heo4SObOM
    The Opium Wars were the real HIGH of the British Empire.
    Exactly the point. UK Government behaving like Pablo Escobar because they can.

    I'm no modern historian so have never really studied the period in detail.
  • kle4 said:

    Roger said:
    With so many of these conspiracies there is either a smoking gun or a smoking turd - either way it is wise to do the sniff test.

    I can believe many things in politics. But the fundamental accusation is that 9 women perjured themselves to lie in court motivated by a conspiracy to bring down one of their own politicians.

    I smell poo rather than cordite.
    Could be a middle ground? That they didn't perjury themselves but political figures manipulated them and the system to try to take him down?

    IDK, it does require a lot, and how to prove that? Dates of what heard when being inconsistent isn't likely to sway masses on it's own.
    Is there a middle ground? These women either told the truth on the stand or they lied. Whether or not the jury believed them isn't the question. For the central plank of the Salmond allegations to be true, the SNP conspired to bring down its previous leader and was willing to commit serious criminal offences en masse to do so.

    Really? The other noise about redacting and ministerial code is just that - noise. The heart of this is was there a conspiracy to frame ex SNP leader Salmond by the SNP for the purposes of political jockeying? And for what purpose? He had resigned as leader back in 2014, so it wasn't to oust him.
  • kjh said:

    kjh said:

    BBC News - Mr Potato Head to lose "Mr" title in gender-neutral rebrand
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56200811

    I thought covid pandemic was supposed to put an end to this nonsense?

    Surely the manufacturer is driven by profit not political correctness. I don't give a toss whether they have the title Mr or not, but if in their judgement it makes the product more marketable then it is the correct decision. They might be wrong, but it is surely a good Conservative principle and not wokeness.
    Should all the Mr Men charcters now lose the Mr ?
    Nope. But not my decision. Entirely up to the author.
    Wait till the gammons find out that that Hasbro took away Mr Potato Head's cock and balls right from the get go.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    Dura_Ace said:

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Smithers said:

    The vaccine clusterfuck is not the first example of the myth of German efficiency.

    If you want to know what a shambles the country has become in recent years then dig a little deeper into the sheer fiasco surrounding Berlin’s Brandenberg airport. This podcast “How to Fuck Up an Airport” will serve as a good guide:

    https://www.radiospaetkauf.com/ber/

    Brandenberg airport is going to be a case study in engineering and architectural screwups for decades to come, as well as being a poster child for the failure of public and private sectors to work efficiently together.

    It would have been cheaper and faster - if politically embarrassing - to have knocked the whole damn thing down in 2011, and started again from a hole in the ground.
    True, but at least they built something eventually, unlike us, who haven't built a new runway in or near London for decades (except the small City Airport).
    How long before you think we need a new runway, post-pandemic?
    There hasn't been a new runway built in the UK since WW2. This won't change in my lifetime.
    Although your "lifetime" is an elastic point, depending on whether your other half has hidden your bike keys....
    What!? Apologies if I'm misunderstanding, but a second runway was built at Manchester Airport in the 90s, for one.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Tin ears, part of an ongoing series.

    As the tweeter suggests, doesn’t multilateral disarmament, the policy to which various UK governments have at least paid lip service, precisely involve negotiation?

    https://twitter.com/tom_gann/status/1365076108622893059?s=21

    Depressing that Labour leaders think they have to become Tories to gain power. In Starmer's case if only he knew it not being Corbyn would have been enough.

    ....And think how much he could have saved on flags.
    I think this is the sort of bollocks that boosts the Green vote. Trident is part of an obsolete cold war that ended 30 years ago and should be scrapped.

    Reasons to turn out for Labour get fewer every week.
    Out of curiosity, would you be comfortable with the USA and France getting rid of their nukes as well?
    I think it's a paradox that warfare was actually far bloodier when armies fought with edged and pointed weapons, than once they started usuing Weapons of Mass Destruction.

    An Lushan, Genghis Khan and his successors, Timur, all killed quite significant percentages of the world's population, using such weapons, along with the deadliest of all - mass starvation.
  • ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:
    With so many of these conspiracies there is either a smoking gun or a smoking turd - either way it is wise to do the sniff test.

    I can believe many things in politics. But the fundamental accusation is that 9 women perjured themselves to lie in court motivated by a conspiracy to bring down one of their own politicians.

    I smell poo rather than cordite.
    Could be a middle ground? That they didn't perjury themselves but political figures manipulated them and the system to try to take him down?

    IDK, it does require a lot, and how to prove that? Dates of what heard when being inconsistent isn't likely to sway masses on it's own.
    Actually, the middle ground is that the women were telling the truth, albeit that the conduct complained of was judged to be boorish rather than criminal, and that Sturgeon had up until that point been manipulating events to try and hush it up either because she didn’t believe the women out of fear it would damage the SNP.

    Which would explain both why she is so furious with Salmond now, and why she seems to have suffered mysterious memory loss about key events.

    Teaching beckons. Have a good morning.
    In that scenario, Salmond is peddling a baseless conspiracy about a plot to jail him...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    edited February 2021

    The EU is suddenly afraid of deteriorating relations with the UK.
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1365184523923820544?s=21

    Are you assuming it will be positive? I'd love to think so but after the vaccine debacle....

    EDIT: After reading the article it could go either way.
  • felix said:

    The EU is suddenly afraid of deteriorating relations with the UK.
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1365184523923820544?s=21

    Are you assuming it will be positive? I'd love to think so but after the vaccine debacle....
    Probably the other tweets in that thread!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Pagan2 said:

    The EU is suddenly afraid of deteriorating relations with the UK.
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1365184523923820544?s=21

    It is ambiguous though. Could equally mean they think they are being too nice
    There’s a whole thread.
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1365184526335569925?s=21
    It seems like only a couple of months ago, the Remainers were saying the UK would have to crawl back to the EU, begging to be taken back into its warm embrace....

    Oh, it was only a couple of months ago?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883

    Dura_Ace said:

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Smithers said:

    The vaccine clusterfuck is not the first example of the myth of German efficiency.

    If you want to know what a shambles the country has become in recent years then dig a little deeper into the sheer fiasco surrounding Berlin’s Brandenberg airport. This podcast “How to Fuck Up an Airport” will serve as a good guide:

    https://www.radiospaetkauf.com/ber/

    Brandenberg airport is going to be a case study in engineering and architectural screwups for decades to come, as well as being a poster child for the failure of public and private sectors to work efficiently together.

    It would have been cheaper and faster - if politically embarrassing - to have knocked the whole damn thing down in 2011, and started again from a hole in the ground.
    True, but at least they built something eventually, unlike us, who haven't built a new runway in or near London for decades (except the small City Airport).
    How long before you think we need a new runway, post-pandemic?
    There hasn't been a new runway built in the UK since WW2. This won't change in my lifetime.
    Although your "lifetime" is an elastic point, depending on whether your other half has hidden your bike keys....
    Weather is too fucked for the precious RR-R SP.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    Interesting:

    https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1365107279427760128

    It may be that if you had Long Covid and get vaccinated, your symptoms MAY go away at last.

    Crotty is genuinely one of the leaders in the field of covid immunology research.

    It would make sense - it appears that "Long Covid" covers four syndromes:

    - Post-intensive care syndrome
    - Long-term organ damage from severe covid
    - Post-viral fatigue (from extensive cytokines)
    - Retention of live covid reservoirs deep inside for prolonged periods even when you appear to have recovered.

    This would only affect the fourth of those, but that could be one of the most common sources of Long Covid (especially in those who had mild cases which turned into Long Covid).

    It needs far more research, but as Long Covid will become a more prominent part of our public health concerns going forwards (when acute covid, mercifully, becomes less and less of an issue), it's very encouraging to see possible insights appearing this soon.

    Should also include the similarity to chronic fatigue syndrome for some (may not be many). There will be some with no physical damage, that still will suffer.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Because Taiwan is semiconductor island.


    Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.

    The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.

    The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
    Why PNG?
    Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
    A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.

    Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
    Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
    Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
    They perhaps remember the pre opium wars geography. China was bigger then.

    I think though that it would be more effective once control of the Seas is established to get better support from diaspora Chinese. Much of the SE Asian economy is run by this community.
    I am not sure that their policies towards Hong Kong have been optimal in that respect.
    I agree, they did much better with the softly softly approach of 5 years ago. There is no need to be quite so Totalitarian, indeed it shows declining self confidence in their system.
    I think it's underappreciated how different things are in China now, under Xi, than in the period before.

    Before Xi, China had a system that worked relatively independently of the individuals involved. The system, and institutions, were more important than the individuals who were running it at any one time. They were able to peacefully transfer power from one set of leaders to another. For a totalitarian dictatorship this seems quite unusual. The transfers of power between one President and another seemed to be much smoother than in the USSR, or China in earlier periods.

    Now we have the personal rule of Xi alone. I think this necessarily leads to a more paranoid governing style and the lack of self-confidence you identify.
    I expect too that despite China's economic success, and growing military power, there's an undercurrent of fear about the impact of a declining population on both. I think that great powers are often at their most dangerous when they fear for the future. There can be a willingness to strike before they lose the opportunity to strike.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Password, I concur. Xi ended the informal agreement not to go after anyone over corruption (to stop internal party bloodletting) and purged the corrupt (who may also not necessarily have been his supporters). By not going along with the usual 10 year stint then anointed successor takes over model he's made his position now stronger but in the future there could be a huge fight over both who succeeds him, and perhaps to oust him in the first place.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    BBC News - Mr Potato Head to lose "Mr" title in gender-neutral rebrand
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56200811

    I thought covid pandemic was supposed to put an end to this nonsense?

    Surely the manufacturer is driven by profit not political correctness. I don't give a toss whether they have the title Mr or not, but if in their judgement it makes the product more marketable then it is the correct decision. They might be wrong, but it is surely a good Conservative principle and not wokeness.
    Should all the Mr Men charcters now lose the Mr ?
    Nope. But not my decision. Entirely up to the author.
    Wait till the gammons find out that that Hasbro took away Mr Potato Head's cock and balls right from the get go.
    Find it a bit odd that Mr Potato Head has attracted the ire of the Wokeists, when he had such a fine Freddy Mercury-style gay moustache...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    Morning all, on topic:

    It makes me laugh - to see the Sunak price
    All he cares about is looking nice
    Which he does - check out his instagram
    But there's no way he's the next PM
    Good lay sunak
    Good lay sunak
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    I don't think there's any middle ground when it comes to an allegation of attempted rape.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).

    France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.

    In Germany the policy is to have a dose already in storage for every dose administered, so there is a guarantee that when you have a first dose that there is a second dose with your name on it in a fridge or freezer in your Bundesland (or even more locally). It is, in my opinion, a stupid policy. But it means for the first 3 weeks of a vaccine (and AZ only started here less than 3 weeks ago) the absolute maximum % of doses administered can be 50%.

    Of course it's going to be a lot less than that because there's a lag between doses being delivered to a Bundesland and actually getting into someone's arm. Probably going to be significantly longer in Germany because a doctor has to be involved in every vaccination, and there are forms to fill in. And because the health system is so fragmented here.

    This is made worse by the decision not recommend one vaccine for over 65s, when this is the group that has first priority. There seems to be a lack of coordination to redirect the AZ doses to younger priority groups, also partly due to the fragmented systems here, but also the incredible lack of any national leadership (which has been a problem with this pandemic in Germany for over a year now).

    There's also an additional reporting lag between jabs happening and getting counted nationally. These lags obviously make a much bigger difference in percentage terms at the start.

    No doubt there is also greater hesitancy about the AZ (which already started in December with the reports that it had lower efficacy AND the confusion about the trials and accidentally giving people half a dose and so on, which made people already somewhat hesitant about any vaccine, much more hesitant about this one).

    But the reporting of this - "only 13% of doses in Germany administered because people don't trust the vaccine" - is in itself totally irresponsible, people are going to be reasonably thinking "if the vast majority of people are refusing it, then I should too" and the problem will get even worse.

    What is the German for 'clusterfuck'?
    DieimpfbeschaffungskatastrophederEuropäischenUnion
    Actually, it's still "der Borisjohnson"
  • Mr. Divvie, surely we can all agree that time-travelling nanopatticles are a serious threat?

    Next you'll be saying we shouldn't worry about transmogrifying potato people.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    MaxPB said:

    The EU is suddenly afraid of deteriorating relations with the UK.
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1365184523923820544?s=21

    I think it has dawned on the EU that the UK is now looking towards APAC and outside of the EU the UK has fallen back on old alliances that threaten to turn the UK into a gigantic regional competitor for them.

    Worse still is that the UK-EU relationship loses value over time. The way the EU have insisted on it being structured means that it's value is diluted by every divergence in a pretty manageable way for UK companies. In their desire to try and keep the UK as close as possible they handed the UK government a mechanism to slowly diverge with little to no consequence. Every tariff that is added devalues the overall deal and without services or easy agricultural trade there are already questions about whether it's truly worth the hassle.

    I think the major worry in Brussels is that by the time 2026 rolls around, the Tories will still be in power, EU trade will have fallen significantly as a portion of UK exports to ca. 20% and there will be calls for the UK to renegotiate the existing deal to either include long term mutual recognition on services and food standards or to junk the whole thing and move to some kind of barebones trade only deal and pull out of everything else.

    I'm a lowly analyst and I can see it already. The EU needs to act now to keep the UK happy or the 2026 review could end up seeing further deterioration in the Treaty based relationship matching the real world deterioration since the start of this year.
    Basically, they have realised you do not mete out punishment beatings to the British Lion.

    Vaccines have been an extraordinary eye-opener for the EU that the UK is still a serious player. They were idiots to have thought otherwise.
  • tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Tin ears, part of an ongoing series.

    As the tweeter suggests, doesn’t multilateral disarmament, the policy to which various UK governments have at least paid lip service, precisely involve negotiation?

    https://twitter.com/tom_gann/status/1365076108622893059?s=21

    Depressing that Labour leaders think they have to become Tories to gain power. In Starmer's case if only he knew it not being Corbyn would have been enough.

    ....And think how much he could have saved on flags.
    I think this is the sort of bollocks that boosts the Green vote. Trident is part of an obsolete cold war that ended 30 years ago and should be scrapped.

    Reasons to turn out for Labour get fewer every week.
    Out of curiosity, would you be comfortable with the USA and France getting rid of their nukes as well?
    The French being nuclear armed is of course the main reason we must have them. 2000 years of history demonstrates that we should never trust the perfidious French.
  • felix said:
    He says he will back Trump if he wins the nomination.

    Which, barring health crisis for Trump, means McConnell will be backing Trump.

    Grim news.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Do we have any proof that Naomi isn't constructed of nanobot patticles? To plumb the depths of Artificial Stupidity?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    MaxPB said:

    The EU is suddenly afraid of deteriorating relations with the UK.
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1365184523923820544?s=21

    I think it has dawned on the EU that the UK is now looking towards APAC and outside of the EU the UK has fallen back on old alliances that threaten to turn the UK into a gigantic regional competitor for them.

    Worse still is that the UK-EU relationship loses value over time. The way the EU have insisted on it being structured means that it's value is diluted by every divergence in a pretty manageable way for UK companies. In their desire to try and keep the UK as close as possible they handed the UK government a mechanism to slowly diverge with little to no consequence. Every tariff that is added devalues the overall deal and without services or easy agricultural trade there are already questions about whether it's truly worth the hassle.

    I think the major worry in Brussels is that by the time 2026 rolls around, the Tories will still be in power, EU trade will have fallen significantly as a portion of UK exports to ca. 20% and there will be calls for the UK to renegotiate the existing deal to either include long term mutual recognition on services and food standards or to junk the whole thing and move to some kind of barebones trade only deal and pull out of everything else.

    I'm a lowly analyst and I can see it already. The EU needs to act now to keep the UK happy or the 2026 review could end up seeing further deterioration in the Treaty based relationship matching the real world deterioration since the start of this year.
    The biggest fear will be if the EU no longer looks like the future.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    tlg86 said:

    I don't think there's any middle ground when it comes to an allegation of attempted rape.

    Although, just to be clear, the not guilty verdict does not imply guilt on the accuser. But Sturgeon's comments the other day were completely out of order.
This discussion has been closed.