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Rishi still betting favourite to succeed Boris but Keir not far behind – politicalbetting.com
Rishi still betting favourite to succeed Boris but Keir not far behind – politicalbetting.com
The chart from BetData.io shows the 6-month trend on Betfair’s next prime minister market. Sunak and Starmer remain the top two but they are no longer as strong as they were.
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Oh, Rishi Sunak
He makes me happy
On Budget Day
Cos Keir Starmer's
A real charmer
But he might take
My ISAs
Away.
But it'll evaporate just as quickly when he starts to claw some of it back.
And A YEAR after the start of the pandemic, three million people still aren't covered by his hugely expensive schemes.
France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.
Great figures from Lincolnshire this evening on Look North.
91% of over 65s in the country have now had their first jab. That's not been offered, but actually had. In addition 15% of those aged 16 to 64 have had the jab.
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1365059654523498507
Next year, all else being equal, he'll improve his years:points ratio very slightly. Remind me again why dividing random numbers by each other is meaningful?
Increase corporation tax to 23%. Still the lowest in Europe so the arguments about putting off overseas investment really shouldn't hold water.
Increase Capital Gains tax on unearned income. 10% is way too low compared to earned income tax.
Remove the age limit on NI contributions. If you are still working after retirement age then you should continue to pay NI just like everyone else.
Look at converting all the current road/fuel taxes to a pay per mile which will be applicable to all cars whatever their motive system. It has to happen soon anyway otherwise the loss of tax income from electric cars will be crippling.
Set up an independent commission to look at tax reform including merging NI and Income tax. And perhaps equalising capital gains tax and other taxes all at the same rate as the new combined tax. At the same time the commission should look at the overall tax burden and where reductions can and should be made.
Personally I think now IS the time. He has an excuse for radical changes and should not let things slip back to 'business as usual'.
Plenty of people have said that bribing them with their own money is.
Removing the incentive on people to switch to electric cars wouldn't go down well with Carrie.
Why do we need an independent commission to look at merging tax and NI? There are plenty of tax experts in government - they should be more than able to produce a list of pros and cons.
Now is the time for tax cuts not tax rises, a fiscal stimulus. Simply removing furlough will seem like enough of a tax rise relative to the current position, a stimulus of tax cuts to help the sectors damaged by the pandemic will help ensure there's a successful tax base to get revenues from in future years.
If Sunak chooses to raise taxes during a recession he doesn't deserve to be Tory leader or PM.
She’s also right. Being vaccinated is an act of public selflessness not just personal interest. Frau Merkel would do well to listen
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/25/queen-says-her-covid-jab-didnt-hurt-at-all?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Not long, I reckon. 5 years max
They’re a tax shelter that previously sheltered behind the UK’s quasi-veto in the EU
It’s not a question of morality, just realpolitik. We saw how quick Brussels was, to throw Dublin under a tram on the vaccine issue. When the plague is over France and Germany will come for the little nations that have got fat from tax farming. Ditto Luxembourg
In a video call, Queen encouraged those with doubts to 'think about other people rather than themselves'
The 94-year-old monarch said her jab last month 'didn't hurt at all' and had made her 'feel protected'
Her Majesty said it was remarkable how quickly the inoculation programme had been put into action
NHS vaccine chief hailed monarch's remarks an 'incredibly important vote of confidence' in the programme"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9301373/Queen-intervenes-vaccine-rollout-encourage-Britons-jabbed.html
Corporation tax rates In the EU:
Hungary is 9%, Bulgaria 10%, Ireland 12.5%, Cyprus 12.5%, Lithuania 15%, and then you about seven or eight countries about where the UK is is (i.e. 18-22%) - Poland, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Latvia, Finland, Estonia, Slovakia, Portugal, Norway, and Denmark.
In the old days it was Ireland on 12.5% and everyone else on 30+%. Competition between nations worked and drove down rates everywhere.
The EU is intent on fiscal unity. Because the euro fails otherwise. I don’t see how that can be squared with wildly varying tax rates, esp Corp tax. That’s what Franco-Germany will go for first. Nations outside the euro might be fine, for now (Bulgaria, Hungary). Ireland is in the euro
So far, I've been right.
Now, the world could change. But it seems that with Brexit, the EU Commission's leverage over Ireland has become less rather than more.
Right now Ireland is like, say, Scotland in the UK: if Scotland benefited from using sterling, free trading in the UK, relying on London to protect it in disputes, but also simultaneously having a corporation tax rate of 10% and saying ‘please headquarter your company in Edinburgh not London, and pay tax to Scots, so we can be richer than everyone else in the UK’
How long would the English tolerate that? Not long, and we are all Brits united on one island.
I don’t see Ireland’s position as sustainable within the eurozone, IF the eurozone is intent on proper fiscal harmony. And I think it is. They have no choice now
And what's the pitch: change your tax rates, or we'll kick you out? I think Ireland would probably say "cheerio", especially if the UK was thriving outside the EU.
“I’m aware that Radiohead have never had a fucking bad review. I reckon if Thom Yorke fucking shit into a light bulb and started blowing it like an empty beer bottle it’d probably get 9 out of 10 in fucking Mojo. I’m aware of that.”
Research found that the masks contained nanoparticles of silver and titanium oxide."
https://www.politico.eu/article/free-masks-distributed-by-belgian-government-contain-toxic-particles/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56200811
I thought covid pandemic was supposed to put an end to this nonsense?
https://twitter.com/rob_yong_/status/1365037969397145608?s=19
Supposedly 56k deaths by end of December, excess deaths of 350k by end of December. That's more than double our excess deaths per capita.
Logically the EU should have a single corporation tax rate - for eurozone countries collected by the ECB, but probably not going to happen.
Only two US State do not have their own Corporation (or Gross Receipts) tax:
- Wyoming
- South Dakota
The rest do.
A signal of intent from the Chancellor at the Budget, would be to drop this to 12% or even 10%.
Of course it's going to be a lot less than that because there's a lag between doses being delivered to a Bundesland and actually getting into someone's arm. Probably going to be significantly longer in Germany because a doctor has to be involved in every vaccination, and there are forms to fill in. And because the health system is so fragmented here.
This is made worse by the decision not recommend one vaccine for over 65s, when this is the group that has first priority. There seems to be a lack of coordination to redirect the AZ doses to younger priority groups, also partly due to the fragmented systems here, but also the incredible lack of any national leadership (which has been a problem with this pandemic in Germany for over a year now).
There's also an additional reporting lag between jabs happening and getting counted nationally. These lags obviously make a much bigger difference in percentage terms at the start.
No doubt there is also greater hesitancy about the AZ (which already started in December with the reports that it had lower efficacy AND the confusion about the trials and accidentally giving people half a dose and so on, which made people already somewhat hesitant about any vaccine, much more hesitant about this one).
But the reporting of this - "only 13% of doses in Germany administered because people don't trust the vaccine" - is in itself totally irresponsible, people are going to be reasonably thinking "if the vast majority of people are refusing it, then I should too" and the problem will get even worse.
The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.
The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
At a guess, and already leading Labour 2-0 on promoting female Prime Ministers, the Tories might be minded to go for a non-white leader next time, although if anyone from the 2019 intake defending a Red Wall seat really stands out then they could also be attractive. There are some candidates already in Government, of course, but the next Prime Minister could very well still be on the backbenches.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/25/asia/india-vaccine-trials-covid-ethics-intl-dst-hnk/index.html
Perhaps he still will step down but there’s not a whisper of it anymore is there? Hard to see beyond a second (reduced) majority for him right now. 12-18 months of wobbly markets and employment stats ahead, before a new boom starts to kick in maybe late 2022 and in full swing by May 2024. He might even choose another pre Christmas election in 2023.
Next PM market looks a total punt in this context.
If you want to know what a shambles the country has become in recent years then dig a little deeper into the sheer fiasco surrounding Berlin’s Brandenberg airport. This podcast “How to Fuck Up an Airport” will serve as a good guide:
https://www.radiospaetkauf.com/ber/
He has the Covid enquiry to weather and if that is positive (big if) he may feel he has done enough while also realising being PM is too much like hard work.
I agree with him. Not only because Boris is now doing a good job and seems to have his appetite back but because without the malevolent trio of Cummings, Cain and Lewis the Government now feels and acts like a Government, rather than a bunch of Alt-R anarchists intent on destruction from within.
And then there’s Carrie. A lady who is young, ambitious, brilliant and full of zest with a proven track record of handling political power. No way will she want to give up the reins of power yet.
Boris will definitely fight at least one more General Election.
It would have been cheaper and faster - if politically embarrassing - to have knocked the whole damn thing down in 2011, and started again from a hole in the ground.
Its in everyone's interests for punters to have free cash to consume with, yet increasingly over the last 20 years Tories have seen the idea of poor people being in anything other than poverty as being akin to encouraging their degenerate behaviour.
Sunak could start with two basic principles:
1. Social Security (drop "benefits" FFS) is there as a safety net for our economy. In ensuring a minimum standard of living for everyone it ensures the continuation of our way of life as a nation driven by commerce.
2. Investment - especially long term investment - is golden. By borrowing money to invest in key infrastructure the government enables the better functioning of the economy and delivers a return on that investment. Drop "subsidy" FFS - it should be investment.
Do these two things and reframe the entire narrative. Its no longer about scroungers getting benefits, its consumers being enabled to keep you in your job buying things. Its not "how can we afford it", its "how can we afford not to". In cities like Manchester the corporation installed things like the pneumatic network enabling industry to move in and power machines. The market could never provide the infrastructure, so local government had to.
It is the same with fibre broadband, with roads, with railway electrification, with major renewable energy projects etc etc. Flip the debate, make investment the goal. Too many Tories respond to almost every public investment project with "how will we pay for this". Tike that changed.
Company tax cuts, while councils and other services go bankrupt is what the Brexiteer elite wanted, but I cannot see that the Purple wall will be so keen.
I’m not criticising Boris for this. He’s displaying what all great leaders need in order to gain and hold onto the reins of power: ruthless pragmatism.
There needs to be an international solution (possibly through tthe G20) to taxing multinationals, especially as so many of them now trade intangibles freely across borders. Until then, everyone needs to be as competitive as possible to attract investment and encourage location.
Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).
Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.
And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.
I don't actually know if the relationship is linear, and nor does anyone else, though it may be. But there is almost certainly a relationship between a popular Chancellor and splashing cash around. We'll see if the relationship holds when he needs to tax rather than spend.
Whereas there is no obvious relationship between SKS's age and his popularity.
And focus on how that investment can be made and where (what incentives do companies need, what can the Government do to help).
otherwise I am told "Riesenkatastrophe".
Or possible "SeanT ist im Urlaub" if you are observing activities in a car park in Leipzig.
"Mr Romney said: "I look at the polls, and the polls show...if you put President Trump in there among Republicans, he wins [the nomination] in a landslide." "
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/25/analysis-window-already-narrowing-republican-challenge-donald/
https://twitter.com/LizHcks/status/1364360868364910592?s=19
Generally positive mentions of the UK too albeit clear that we had done everything badly up to that point.
I never heard the outcome.
Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.
It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
Ireland appealed, as they didn’t want the money and didn’t believe they’d done anything wrong, and won.
Now the EU are appealing that, and trying to use technicalities to make Apple pay the money to someone who doesn’t want it.
https://www.theregister.com/2021/02/01/european_commission_outlines_its_appeal/
And the problem with government "investment" is that very often it is nothing of the sort, at least in financial terms - a lot of the things governments are pressured to "invest" in either generate no return at-all (e. g. shiny new school buildings), or less return than other more normal things (e.g. railway electrification has a payback time of decades if ever).