Still, at least one person was clear-headed about Brexit back in 2016:
So all these arrangements would leave the UK with less access to the single market than before. Would this be outweighed by freedom to negotiate our own trading arrangements with other countries? A simple bit of maths shows the answer is no. The EU already has FTAs covering nearly 60% of the UK’s trade, including the EU itself. If TTIP and the EU/Japan FTA can be negotiated soon, that figure goes up to 80%. It can’t possibly make sense to have less good arrangements with the 60% or 80% in return for slightly better arrangements with the 20%.
Or alternatively, look at the orders of magnitude. The single market is plausibly worth 5% of GDP. The Commission says an ambitious EU deal with the US will boost GDP by 0.5% in ten years’ time. With Japan by a bit more, 0.8%. With India about 0.1%. The orders of magnitude are different and it simply isn’t worth jeopardising access to the single market for the sake of global trade.
That’s all the more true when one considers the negotiating realities. After leaving, the UK will have to renegotiate trading arrangements simultaneously with many major countries, including the EU, in a two-year window. There may not be goodwill. Britain will be demandeur and so it will be Britain that has to make the concessions to get the deal. True, other countries will want deals too, but they won’t be under anything like the same time pressure and can afford to make us sweat. ... In reality therefore what we can negotiate will fall short of the theoretical ideal. Our FTAs are bound to leave tariffs on some sensitive goods, even if we get tariff-free access for most. We are bound to have imperfect arrangements for services access, our real competitive strength, and this would be particularly risky in financial services given the ease with which firms could decamp to (say) Dublin.
In short, even the best-case outcome can’t be as good as what we have now; and we won’t be able to negotiate the best-case outcome anyway, because in real life you never can.
Written by one David Frost, of whom you might have heard.
You release none of us wanted to leave because we thought we’d improve our trade access to the EU right*? We voted to leave because we wanted to bin all the rest of it. We’d be richer in the EU, or as the 51st US State, or as a province of China; but some things are more important than money. It’s been nearly five years and still people don’t understand the motivations.
*Well no one sensible. Farage or David Davis might have.
Is it possible to understand an irrational concept?
Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.
The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.
The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
No.
If they are planning to defend Taiwan - or indeed if Taiwan is determined about defending its independence, which it almost certainly is - most scenarios would involve significant disruption to semiconductor production.
I don't think you can make assumptions either way - and Biden's State appointments are China pragmatists, not doves.
he biggest stick the US has is that if Taiwan is invaded, they declare war. Not to actually fight, but the first step is to seize all the "enemy" property. So all the Chinese owned US government debt evaporates....
Invading across 80 - 200 miles of sea, in the face of a numerous and determined enemy, and the US Pacific fleet, would seem like a recipe for disaster to me.
Hence why they haven't done it. Yet.
If they think the US won't engage....
The other fallout from Taiwan falling would be every single country in the world that doesn't have nuclear weapons acquiring them.
The Japanese would have them in days. I think that around the world *everyone* would suddenly find that nuclear power plants of a certain type were a great investment against global warming...
Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.
The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.
The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
Why PNG?
Because it's a corrupt and impoverished shit hole that can be easily manipulated and it's a stepping stone toward Australia which is full of wheat, iron ore and coal.
A friend of mine was sent to PNG by his company in the early nineties, and later moved to Joburg, where he felt safer.
Australians over the last century were obsessed with the "Yellow Peril" threat to Australia. Seems somethings never change.
Good job China is such a good neighbour and not expansionist at all................
Generally speaking China is not particularly expansionist. Its just that their definition of China is slightly bigger than anyone else's.
After that, they were constrained by the new Western colonial powers, so saying that they weren't expansionist doesn't really mean all that much.
And when in their previous history did they establish overseas military naval bases ? They are cautious and gradualist, rather than 'not particularly expansionist'.
I'm totally down with this, in general. The time spent identifying, validating (if self identifying) and organising contact with specific groups is far better spent putting needles in arms (yes, I know different people would be doing those things, but there's a risk the needlers would be waiting on the paper shufflers). By the time you get it all sorted, you could have vaccinated half the people anyway.
I can see valid exceptions in some limited easy to do groups - e.g. teachers where it's easy enough to get a list (still logistics/efficiency loss of either going in to each school, with a long tail of very small schools or contacting teachers to go and attend somewhere else, but at least we know who they are). Similar arguments to healthcare workers who we have been doing. But how well do we know who other key workers are? Supermarket staffing is e.g quite fluid and you can't just rock up a a supermarket and do all their staff in one go.
Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.
The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.
The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
No.
If they are planning to defend Taiwan - or indeed if Taiwan is determined about defending its independence, which it almost certainly is - most scenarios would involve significant disruption to semiconductor production.
I don't think you can make assumptions either way - and Biden's State appointments are China pragmatists, not doves.
Taiwan does not currently have the defence capability to defend against Chinese invasion. Selling them that capability is seen as the trigger that would start the conflict. But it's probably right to try and get them it somehow.
It has the capacity to make any military invasion very expensive indeed. That, and the possibility of US intervention, might be sufficient.
I'm totally down with this, in general. The time spent identifying, validating (if self identifying) and organising contact with specific groups is far better spent putting needles in arms (yes, I know different people would be doing those things, but there's a risk the needlers would be waiting on the paper shufflers). By the time you get it all sorted, you could have vaccinated half the people anyway.
I can see valid exceptions in some limited easy to do groups - e.g. teachers where it's easy enough to get a list (still logistics/efficiency loss of either going in to each school, with a long tail of very small schools or contacting teachers to go and attend somewhere else, but at least we know who they are). Similar arguments to healthcare workers who we have been doing. But how well do we know who other key workers are? Supermarket staffing is e.g quite fluid and you can't just rock up a a supermarket and do all their staff in one go.
What choice has he got? Trump is going to be the 2024 candidate no matter what Cecil Turtle says so he might as well get on board with it.
I’m not sure he’s got the attention span to still be interested in three years has he? And being President is a lot of work. I still think Trump TV is more likely.
He fucking loved being President as it combined three of greatest pleasures in life: getting as high as fuck on pills, license to grope women and having music play whenever he entered a room,
I wouldn't be surprised if he announced his 2024 bid at this CPAC wankathon at the weekend.
All this just proves the point that the best thing for America would've been to create a Truman Show-style alternative reality for the mad old bastard. Plus it would combine his other love of reality TV with great ratings, albeit he wouldn't know it.
I don't think he'll run, though. He'll probably tease all the way to the line, as his influence depends on the fear he'll go again. But he was very personally hurt by defeat and ego preservation means he probably won't risk in the end - if a proxy or other GOPer loses then that's great for him, as he gets to say "of course, I'd have won".
There was a telling clip in the current series Trump Takes on the World. In a presser during what ever Sino squabble Trump was then in, he ended by saying 'we're winning, we always win'. The internet is littered with quotes from him about winning. For him to run again there would have to be some acknowledgment of him having legitimately lost in 2020, else why jump into the whole rigged procession again? Dunno if he's psychologically capable of that.
I come to the contrary conclusion. The whole point of running again in 2024 is that he cannot accept that he lost in 2020. So he runs again to right the wrong of the election being stolen from him - presumably after four years of fighting to put Trump loyalists in charge in as many States as possible, and in as many Congressional Districts as possible.
If the Trump cancer continues to spread then it's by no means impossible that a strong set of mid-term elections would give him a majority for not certifying the votes of States that go against him.
PARIS — Alain Fischer, the head of France’s vaccine strategy orientation council, said on Thursday that recent findings suggest the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine "is efficient in people aged over 65," and said the country's health authority would look again into its recommendations for the jab.
I'm totally down with this, in general. The time spent identifying, validating (if self identifying) and organising contact with specific groups is far better spent putting needles in arms (yes, I know different people would be doing those things, but there's a risk the needlers would be waiting on the paper shufflers). By the time you get it all sorted, you could have vaccinated half the people anyway.
I can see valid exceptions in some limited easy to do groups - e.g. teachers where it's easy enough to get a list (still logistics/efficiency loss of either going in to each school, with a long tail of very small schools or contacting teachers to go and attend somewhere else, but at least we know who they are). Similar arguments to healthcare workers who we have been doing. But how well do we know who other key workers are? Supermarket staffing is e.g quite fluid and you can't just rock up a a supermarket and do all their staff in one go.
Yup, don't add bureaucracy just do it faster.
In contrast Germany wants to impose draconian fines for jumping the queue.
This is very welcome news, if true. Nothing else to say other than that. Very welcome.
As my profile picture shows I want constructive win-win relations between the UK and EU, long-term, that respect the position of each party, with neither trying to dick the other for political reasons.
Let's wait and see what it is first. It's probably just going to be a repackaging of the LPF that we completely rejected. I actually think that's why Frost was brought in to handle all of this so the fifth columnists in the civil service don't try and sign us up to everything we've already rejected.
I'd agree to LPF on SPS standards, to be honest, to get around the dickheadery of vet inspections on all our meat and fish for agricultural export and import.
Fishing 🍣 was a distraction to keep the 🤣 French 🇹🇫 and Barnier preoccupied while the 🤣 Brits got everything else. On almost every major issue ⚠️ outstanding in the 🤣 end 🔚 like 😻 LPF we 👩👩👦👦 got more ➕ what 😦 we 🌿 wanted while we 👩👩👦👦 gave some ground ⛱️ on fishing. 🐟 The 🤣 fishing 🍣🐠 industry 🏭 will need to adjust to the 🤘 new 🇳🇨 reality but 😥 the 🤣 fact the 🤘 most vocal objections come from 😤 the 🤘 Scottish 🏴 lobbyists funded by the 🤣 Scottish 🏴 government smells 👃 a bit fishy.
On fashion 👙 the 🤘 fashion 🤵♀️👡 industry 🏭 will have 🈶 to get 🉐 used to it. Just because they're complaining doesn't mean 😏 its the 🤘 end 🔚 of the 🤣 world. 🌍 People 🫂👨👨👦 in fashion 👔👔👔 regularly work 🏢 in both New 🌚 York and Paris without 😶 them being the 🤘 same country 🇴🇲 or area. Que sera sera.
As for 🔰 setting up PO Box 🥡 branch 🎋 offices 📃 its not 🈶 such a big 😃 deal. Businesses are 👉 setting up paper 📔 offices 👩💼 then moving 📦 on - and we're out 😵 of the 🤘 market, out 😵 of their regulations and most importantly regulate the 🤘 City 🇻🇦 of London by ourselves and not 🈶🈶🈶 have 🈶 Brussels regulating the 🤣 City. 🇻🇦
If the 🤣 choice is between having 🈶 Brussels regulating the 🤘 City 🌃 post-Brexit 🏤 with us having 🈶 not ⏳ veto, or London regulates the 🤘🤘🤘 City 🇻🇦 and businesses set up PO Box 🥡 paper 🖨️ branch 🎋 offices 🧑💼 then I 😀 choose the 🤣 PO Box 🧃 paper 📒 branch 🎋 office 📃 every time. 🕦 The 🤘 City 🇻🇦 is too important to be regulated by Brussels and not ⏳ London.
Top tip: if you emojify PT's posts then read them while listening to Verdi's Coro di Zingari they are much more enjoyable.
Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.
The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.
The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
No.
If they are planning to defend Taiwan - or indeed if Taiwan is determined about defending its independence, which it almost certainly is - most scenarios would involve significant disruption to semiconductor production.
I don't think you can make assumptions either way - and Biden's State appointments are China pragmatists, not doves.
he biggest stick the US has is that if Taiwan is invaded, they declare war. Not to actually fight, but the first step is to seize all the "enemy" property. So all the Chinese owned US government debt evaporates....
Invading across 80 - 200 miles of sea, in the face of a numerous and determined enemy, and the US Pacific fleet, would seem like a recipe for disaster to me.
It's a gamble on who's willing to fight, and for how hard and how long.
A guerrilla war could last years in the mountains of Taiwan but, I'm not sure how up for it Taiwan is, and I think their plan is to defend it before the shoreline.
Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.
The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.
The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
No.
If they are planning to defend Taiwan - or indeed if Taiwan is determined about defending its independence, which it almost certainly is - most scenarios would involve significant disruption to semiconductor production.
I don't think you can make assumptions either way - and Biden's State appointments are China pragmatists, not doves.
Taiwan does not currently have the defence capability to defend against Chinese invasion. Selling them that capability is seen as the trigger that would start the conflict. But it's probably right to try and get them it somehow.
It has the capacity to make any military invasion very expensive indeed. That, and the possibility of US intervention, might be sufficient.
Another way to stop invasion might be to build Taiwanese processor plants in easy-to-helilift units - get the whole of their productive capacity away and onto US vessels within 24 hours.
Just the capability to do it should be enough of a deterrent.
And yet thousands of EU based institutions are opening up UK branch offices to ensure they don't lose access to London's markets should the EU decide against equivalence. I'm not sure how much value the rest actually has and the special pleading from certain industries that have always been anti-brexit isn't a huge surprise. Fishing is a really big who gives a shit 0.01% of GDP industry. I've not read the complaints from fashion, would be interested to see what the complaints are if you have any links.
Of course fishing is tiny, but it's the Brexiteers who decided it was a key objective to protect it, and instead have absolutely kiboshed it. And of course each of those sectors hit is individually small as a proportion of GDP, but taken together they add up to a lot of jobs and a lot of added value.
And yes of course EU based institutions are setting up UK branch offices. They have to now, it's an extra cost of doing business in London. That's bad news, not good news, and the corollary is of course that banks from all over the world can no longer rely on London-based branches to service the EU27, so are setting up branch offices within the EU. Putting up trade frictions in our most important industry - one of the very few sectors in which we have a world-class competitive advantage - is just mind-blowingly stupid. Thanks to Boris and David Frost, we've managed to sign up to a thin deal which protects EU exports to the UK and clobbers UK exports to the EU. It barely mentions services. How dumb was that?
And yes of course EU based institutions are setting up UK branch offices. They have to now, it's an extra cost of doing business in London. That's bad news, not good news
I don't get how anti-EU rampers don't understand this rather basic point. We have significantly - in some cases massively - increased the cost of doing day to day business. "We now have the same rules as everywhere else and business trades there so shut up remoaning" is the usual retort. Which misses that the reason why UK companies were so heavily trading with the EU and not ROW was a combination of distance and cost.
As for the deal, its a well-evidenced hypothesis that the "fuck business" government didn't understand how businesses actually trade, didn't ask them, and ignored them when they provided evidence. The political mission of delivering a narrow form of Brexit overrode all other considerations. That the narrow form was one they had propagandised as the only true form of Brexit is even more tragic - they could have spun Norway+ the same, delivered Brexit and not torpedoed our own economy.
What choice has he got? Trump is going to be the 2024 candidate no matter what Cecil Turtle says so he might as well get on board with it.
I’m not sure he’s got the attention span to still be interested in three years has he? And being President is a lot of work. I still think Trump TV is more likely.
He fucking loved being President as it combined three of greatest pleasures in life: getting as high as fuck on pills, license to grope women and having music play whenever he entered a room,
I wouldn't be surprised if he announced his 2024 bid at this CPAC wankathon at the weekend.
All this just proves the point that the best thing for America would've been to create a Truman Show-style alternative reality for the mad old bastard. Plus it would combine his other love of reality TV with great ratings, albeit he wouldn't know it.
I don't think he'll run, though. He'll probably tease all the way to the line, as his influence depends on the fear he'll go again. But he was very personally hurt by defeat and ego preservation means he probably won't risk in the end - if a proxy or other GOPer loses then that's great for him, as he gets to say "of course, I'd have won".
We’re back to Trump TV. Each Republican candidate competes for his support in a series of TV specials borrowing the set dressing from the Apprentice.
God forbid they be given a series of practical tasks though.
As for "trucks going back empty" - trucks have always gone back empty. In case you haven't noticed it we won a mammoth trade deficit with the Continent and long have done, that's why the trucks are empty it isn't new.
A literal rewriting of the facts and the established economics of logistics by the PB Expert in
As an aside, if all the EU doses received were actually in peoples' arms, then around 12% of EU adults would have received one dose, and the EU would only be a smidgen behind the US (14% of adults with at least one dose).
France and Germany have taken an EU vaccine procurement disaster, and actually made it worse.
Yep.
Unless more supplies appear, the max aspiration for EU by the end of March (ignoring time for distribution) is somewhere between 12% and 24% depending on the one / two dose mix (whole population numbers).
Listening to the session in the EuroParl yesterday with heads of Pharma companies, there is considerable delusion around still. Plenty of MEPs quoting conspiracy theories from the first attacks on AZ.
And this. Cases have turned up on EU average rate. That says hospitalisations in 2-3 weeks, and deaths in 3-6. Strong lockdowns will have to be retained, and some are doing this already.
That January peak for the UK is something else as is the horrendous death toll that came with it. I suspect we will find that January was the closest we came in the whole pandemic to just being overwhelmed. We have had the best part of 2 months of severe lockdown plus a rapid vaccination program and we are only just getting to the point that our deaths are once again somewhere in line with Spain, France, Italy and Germany.
Most of this seems to have been caused by the Kent variant with its significantly enhanced infectivity but it is a bit strange that we have been hit so much harder by this variant than anyone else, particularly that it seems to have become much more dominant here than it did elsewhere.
It is really this sting in the tail that means that we are going to be one of the hardest hit countries in terms of deaths. Hopefully the EU and other countries don't go through anything similar.
Agree with all of that.
I wonder if the reason we had problems in January is because the Kent variant had a 6-8 week head start here than elsewhere in europe (as it was here in numbers first) which explains why Finland and elsewhere are now seeing the problem after 6-8 weeks of compounded growth by a more infectious variant that started spreading in the UK in November but only appeared within Europe in December / January.
Maybe. It may be that we gave early warning to the rest of Europe that the Kent variant meant that lockdown regulations had to be materially stepped up and they were able to do that fast enough to stop it getting such a grip. But its curious.
The biggest question I have over the Kent variant is that Greenwich (very close to the epicenter of this spread) was adamant that Schools needed to be closed on December 14th yet the Government only reacted a few days later and then didn't fully respond until January 4th.
It's very surprising that things weren't picked up earlier given what we now know was known at the time..
Actually, the government reacted very quickly to Greenwich's desire to close its schools on 14/12: Gavin Williamson sent them a letter threatening legal action if they went ahead. Only to have to backtrack a week later. What a hero he is, so astute.
I agree. On the Labour side I am backing Angela, Lisa and Rosena, on the Tory side Liz and Priti. All good value imo.
It will not kill independence, the SNP are not the YES votes. They will need to clear out the wrong un's , sort themselves out and get back to their real purpose or they will be in the bin.
Morning, malcy. Good to see you back. Trust you and the good Lady are both fine?
For what it's worth, I see parallels between Sturgeon's brass neck in toughing it out when (on any objective assessment) she has been caught out lying such that she has to resign, and the SNP's brass neck in refusing to admit that there were big holes in the case for independence that needed addressing before you win over the required majority for Yes.
What big holes?
Oh you know....currency, jobs, relocation of HQs, head of state, funding North Sea oil and gas abandonment costs, EU membership, rUK-Scottish border. No biggies....
Also does the Begum ruling and Dom being kicked out pave the way for Sajid Javid to return to the Cabinet? It should do.
Already been rumours. Maybe education. Maybe health with Hancock off to education.
For a glorious moment there, I forgot who the current Education Secretary was.
Then I woke up.
I thought there could be no one worse than Gavin Williamson as Education Secretary then I heard Labour's Kate Green speak at the dispatch box and to be honest, she made Williamson look OK which of course he is not and nor should he be in any cabinet
I can understand fishermen being upset with the new bureaucracy and hurdles, but I don't get the total dismissal of the significant uplift in their quotas by 25% overall, which we put the whole trade deal on the line for on their behalf.
It seems some of them genuinely thought they'd get 100% of the fish in all our waters and free rein to sell it on to the EU with no extra hassle whatsoever.
You release none of us wanted to leave because we thought we’d improve our trade access to the EU right*? We voted to leave because we wanted to bin all the rest of it. We’d be richer in the EU, or as the 51st US State, or as a province of China; but some things are more important than money. It’s been nearly five years and still people don’t understand the motivations.
*Well no one sensible. Farage or David Davis might have.
Absolutely. "I want to be poorer" was definitely the reason why the red wall voted for Brexit and how clever of you to point this out.
This worries me, we know there are significant groups of people who have rejected vaccines that account for around 10% of the population. That points to a data gathering error by the ONS rather than the known statistics about BAME uptake being incorrect.
Regarding the UK version of DARPA which is currently in the works, has anyone read this article on 'why DARPA works' ? https://benjaminreinhardt.com/wddw
For anyone interested in the topic, I'd strongly recommend it, as it's a brilliant summary. AFAICS, the only things we're definitely duplicating are the opacity and lack of external oversight. While necessary to the way such an organisation works, without the other elements, they are a recipe for disaster.
I'm totally down with this, in general. The time spent identifying, validating (if self identifying) and organising contact with specific groups is far better spent putting needles in arms (yes, I know different people would be doing those things, but there's a risk the needlers would be waiting on the paper shufflers). By the time you get it all sorted, you could have vaccinated half the people anyway.
I can see valid exceptions in some limited easy to do groups - e.g. teachers where it's easy enough to get a list (still logistics/efficiency loss of either going in to each school, with a long tail of very small schools or contacting teachers to go and attend somewhere else, but at least we know who they are). Similar arguments to healthcare workers who we have been doing. But how well do we know who other key workers are? Supermarket staffing is e.g quite fluid and you can't just rock up a a supermarket and do all their staff in one go.
Yup, don't add bureaucracy just do it faster.
In contrast Germany wants to impose draconian fines for jumping the queue.
A classic example of focussing on entirely the wrong problem:
Sunak's chances will be better if there is an early Conservative leadership contest before rather than after he has brought in the inevitable tax rises to come. If that is predictably accompanied by a reversal of the temporary largesse of the past year, his stock amongst the public will have unwound quickly. And then Conservative MPs, always motivated by self interest, and already annoyed by the tax increases, won't see any obvious reason to back Sunak on grounds of furthering their own prospects.
I'm totally down with this, in general. The time spent identifying, validating (if self identifying) and organising contact with specific groups is far better spent putting needles in arms (yes, I know different people would be doing those things, but there's a risk the needlers would be waiting on the paper shufflers). By the time you get it all sorted, you could have vaccinated half the people anyway.
I can see valid exceptions in some limited easy to do groups - e.g. teachers where it's easy enough to get a list (still logistics/efficiency loss of either going in to each school, with a long tail of very small schools or contacting teachers to go and attend somewhere else, but at least we know who they are). Similar arguments to healthcare workers who we have been doing. But how well do we know who other key workers are? Supermarket staffing is e.g quite fluid and you can't just rock up a a supermarket and do all their staff in one go.
Yup, don't add bureaucracy just do it faster.
Also, we are vaccinating at such a rate it isn't like we are New Zealand that got a total of a few 100k doses now, but won't get the bulk until Autumn, so have to careful decide how to get best bang for buck.
Here, it is more a matter of just a few weeks away for everybody at any significant risk. Once we are onto the sub 40 year olds, we are talking very low risk.
PARIS — Alain Fischer, the head of France’s vaccine strategy orientation council, said on Thursday that recent findings suggest the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine "is efficient in people aged over 65," and said the country's health authority would look again into its recommendations for the jab.
If only 60% of the population has the vaccine then even with a good 90% efficacy then they cannot reach herd immunity through vaccination.
I find it mind-boggling how short sighted leaders in the EU have been in trying to score political points. I try and imagine what the UK reaction would be if the situation had been reversed. I don't really believe that we would have or that if we had that opposition parties would have let it go. I don't see (many) opposition politicians in the EU lining up the criticize what they did.
What choice has he got? Trump is going to be the 2024 candidate no matter what Cecil Turtle says so he might as well get on board with it.
I’m not sure he’s got the attention span to still be interested in three years has he? And being President is a lot of work. I still think Trump TV is more likely.
He fucking loved being President as it combined three of greatest pleasures in life: getting as high as fuck on pills, license to grope women and having music play whenever he entered a room,
I wouldn't be surprised if he announced his 2024 bid at this CPAC wankathon at the weekend.
All this just proves the point that the best thing for America would've been to create a Truman Show-style alternative reality for the mad old bastard. Plus it would combine his other love of reality TV with great ratings, albeit he wouldn't know it.
I don't think he'll run, though. He'll probably tease all the way to the line, as his influence depends on the fear he'll go again. But he was very personally hurt by defeat and ego preservation means he probably won't risk in the end - if a proxy or other GOPer loses then that's great for him, as he gets to say "of course, I'd have won".
There was a telling clip in the current series Trump Takes on the World. In a presser during what ever Sino squabble Trump was then in, he ended by saying 'we're winning, we always win'. The internet is littered with quotes from him about winning. For him to run again there would have to be some acknowledgment of him having legitimately lost in 2020, else why jump into the whole rigged procession again? Dunno if he's psychologically capable of that.
I come to the contrary conclusion. The whole point of running again in 2024 is that he cannot accept that he lost in 2020. So he runs again to right the wrong of the election being stolen from him - presumably after four years of fighting to put Trump loyalists in charge in as many States as possible, and in as many Congressional Districts as possible.
If the Trump cancer continues to spread then it's by no means impossible that a strong set of mid-term elections would give him a majority for not certifying the votes of States that go against him.
Not saying that isn't possible, but is a presidential campaign starting off on a basis of 'our democracy is rigged against me, vote for me' sustainable?
When will they shift to 24/7 vaccinations, if at all?
I can (and) would take a 3am slot a week on Friday, as opposed to a 2pm slot on a Wednesday in 2 months time.
When under the under 50s programme starts I guess.
I rather doubt that. 24-hour operation doesn't make sense unless the physical premises are the limiting factor, which surely isn't the case. It's not as though we're trying to make maximum use of expensive or hard-to-get equipment. The rate is limited by supply, distribution, and the physical hours that the jabbers can work (and work safely).
This worries me, we know there are significant groups of people who have rejected vaccines that account for around 10% of the population. That points to a data gathering error by the ONS rather than the known statistics about BAME uptake being incorrect.
35% failure of uptake amongst healthcare workers/carers?
Another way to stop invasion might be to build Taiwanese processor plants in easy-to-helilift units - get the whole of their productive capacity away and onto US vessels within 24 hours.
Not even remotely possible, alas. Semiconductor fabs have two unfortunate attributes; they're very, very large and filled with equipment that is hugely expensive and so exquisitely fragile that even specks of dust can cause them to produce lumps of dead silicon rather than working chips.
Which is part of the problem with Taiwan. A couple of bombs dropped in the right place could take a big chunk of the world's semiconductor capacity off-line for possibly years.
You release none of us wanted to leave because we thought we’d improve our trade access to the EU right*? We voted to leave because we wanted to bin all the rest of it. We’d be richer in the EU, or as the 51st US State, or as a province of China; but some things are more important than money. It’s been nearly five years and still people don’t understand the motivations.
*Well no one sensible. Farage or David Davis might have.
Absolutely. "I want to be poorer" was definitely the reason why the red wall voted for Brexit and how clever of you to point this out.
The Red Wall was promised that if outside the EU things will improve.
I suspect that might actually be the case in a few places (where the communication links exist) but I struggle to see how it will work across the entire country.
Shamina Begum denied right of return to the UK by the Supreme Court. Huge victory for the government.
Fantastic news, I must admit I'm surprised by that one. Well done.
Yep, a quite stunning outbreak of common sense from the Supreme Court. What a departure from the Lady Hale years!
https://twitter.com/TelegraphNews/status/1365240831301541894 Lord Reed: 'The Court of Appeal also appears to have overlooked the limitations to its competence, both institutional and constitutional, to decide questions of national security, as explained in Rehman, A, and Lord Carlile’s case.'
Isn't the notion that the US are trying to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity a tacit acknowledgement that they aren't going to fight China for Taiwan.
The west did absolutely fuck all of any moment when China turned Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef (in the Spratlys) into massive military bases. The west will almost certainly do fuck all when they take the next step of occupying Taiping then Dongsha.
The west needs to think about the post Taiwan future because that battle is almost certainly already lost. The Philippines, Vietnam and PNG are where the effort and focus needs to be.
No.
If they are planning to defend Taiwan - or indeed if Taiwan is determined about defending its independence, which it almost certainly is - most scenarios would involve significant disruption to semiconductor production.
I don't think you can make assumptions either way - and Biden's State appointments are China pragmatists, not doves.
Taiwan does not currently have the defence capability to defend against Chinese invasion. Selling them that capability is seen as the trigger that would start the conflict. But it's probably right to try and get them it somehow.
It has the capacity to make any military invasion very expensive indeed. That, and the possibility of US intervention, might be sufficient.
Another way to stop invasion might be to build Taiwanese processor plants in easy-to-helilift units - get the whole of their productive capacity away and onto US vessels within 24 hours.
Just the capability to do it should be enough of a deterrent.
Not even vaguely possible. But TSMC having production capacity elsewhere would make the deterrent of salt-earthing their domestic production considerably more credible.
Shamina Begum denied right of return to the UK by the Supreme Court. Huge victory for the government.
Fantastic news, I must admit I'm surprised by that one. Well done.
Yep, a quite stunning outbreak of common sense from the Supreme Court. What a departure from the Lady Hale years!
https://twitter.com/TelegraphNews/status/1365240831301541894 Lord Reed: 'The Court of Appeal also appears to have overlooked the limitations to its competence, both institutional and constitutional, to decide questions of national security, as explained in Rehman, A, and Lord Carlile’s case.'
Unlike the BBC...who report her only as "having lived under IS rule", a present but not involved claim...when the government position is she was far from just present.
PARIS — Alain Fischer, the head of France’s vaccine strategy orientation council, said on Thursday that recent findings suggest the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine "is efficient in people aged over 65," and said the country's health authority would look again into its recommendations for the jab.
If only 60% of the population has the vaccine then even with a good 90% efficacy then they cannot reach herd immunity through vaccination.
I find it mind-boggling how short sighted leaders in the EU have been in trying to score political points. I try and imagine what the UK reaction would be if the situation had been reversed. I don't really believe that we would have or that if we had that opposition parties would have let it go. I don't see (many) opposition politicians in the EU lining up the criticize what they did.
I wonder how doing the younger age groups will be affected by their much lower association with their GP's. When I was professionally involved with these matters it was, quite frankly, astounding at which the number of prescriptions per head increased shortly after age 65. IIRC it was something 2-3 per person per year in the 'around 40's' rising to something like 10 pa in the over 65's. In other words, cooler people are likely to have regular contact with GP surgeries, and for their registrations to be up-t-date an accurate. That doesn't by any means apply lower down the age ranges. Our system of registration with a GP also means that contact with patients is much easier.
Naomi Wolf was a Rhodes Scholar at New College, Oxford, nuff said.
I do have a friend who is convinced Apple engages in mind control, it started via the iPod which sent waves to your brain to buy even more expensive stuff from Apple.
Although Kate Beckinsale was there I can forgive New a lot
Mr. Pioneers, hasn't some polling shown Truss to be rated very highly among Conservatives? I have vague memories of having seen that.
I think you are correct. My point was to query why, and its revealing about the intelligence of Tory MPs.
Truss has signed a load of trade deals. These deals aren't new deals, they are continuation deals allowing us to continue to enjoy the benefits of the previous 3rd country - EU deals. The "triumph" of signing these deals is what makes her popular yet the deals she is signing is the deal the EU negotiated...
And that’s the right strategy. Grab them quickly and the. Renegotiate and improve over time
What choice has he got? Trump is going to be the 2024 candidate no matter what Cecil Turtle says so he might as well get on board with it.
I’m not sure he’s got the attention span to still be interested in three years has he? And being President is a lot of work. I still think Trump TV is more likely.
He fucking loved being President as it combined three of greatest pleasures in life: getting as high as fuck on pills, license to grope women and having music play whenever he entered a room,
I wouldn't be surprised if he announced his 2024 bid at this CPAC wankathon at the weekend.
All this just proves the point that the best thing for America would've been to create a Truman Show-style alternative reality for the mad old bastard. Plus it would combine his other love of reality TV with great ratings, albeit he wouldn't know it.
I don't think he'll run, though. He'll probably tease all the way to the line, as his influence depends on the fear he'll go again. But he was very personally hurt by defeat and ego preservation means he probably won't risk in the end - if a proxy or other GOPer loses then that's great for him, as he gets to say "of course, I'd have won".
There was a telling clip in the current series Trump Takes on the World. In a presser during what ever Sino squabble Trump was then in, he ended by saying 'we're winning, we always win'. The internet is littered with quotes from him about winning. For him to run again there would have to be some acknowledgment of him having legitimately lost in 2020, else why jump into the whole rigged procession again? Dunno if he's psychologically capable of that.
I come to the contrary conclusion. The whole point of running again in 2024 is that he cannot accept that he lost in 2020. So he runs again to right the wrong of the election being stolen from him - presumably after four years of fighting to put Trump loyalists in charge in as many States as possible, and in as many Congressional Districts as possible.
If the Trump cancer continues to spread then it's by no means impossible that a strong set of mid-term elections would give him a majority for not certifying the votes of States that go against him.
Agreed. It's quite possible for a combination of a bad economy and Democratic missteps to put Trump within touching distance of power again. And the majority of the Republican party seems to be on board with completely abandoning the shared constitutional assumptions which have underpinned US democracy.
Quite pleased the ISIS member has been refused the right to return.
Of course, she's still alive. Unlike the children crucified by the group she travelled a thousand miles to join. Or that Jordanian pilot (I forget if he was burned alive or dissolved in acid). And a great many Yazidis.
Another way to stop invasion might be to build Taiwanese processor plants in easy-to-helilift units - get the whole of their productive capacity away and onto US vessels within 24 hours.
Not even remotely possible, alas. Semiconductor fabs have two unfortunate attributes; they're very, very large and filled with equipment that is hugely expensive and so exquisitely fragile that even specks of dust can cause them to produce lumps of dead silicon rather than working chips.
Which is part of the problem with Taiwan. A couple of bombs dropped in the right place could take a big chunk of the world's semiconductor capacity off-line for possibly years.
Now I've got a vision of someone juggling with chlorine trifluoride in a shipping container :-)
What choice has he got? Trump is going to be the 2024 candidate no matter what Cecil Turtle says so he might as well get on board with it.
I’m not sure he’s got the attention span to still be interested in three years has he? And being President is a lot of work. I still think Trump TV is more likely.
He fucking loved being President as it combined three of greatest pleasures in life: getting as high as fuck on pills, license to grope women and having music play whenever he entered a room,
I wouldn't be surprised if he announced his 2024 bid at this CPAC wankathon at the weekend.
All this just proves the point that the best thing for America would've been to create a Truman Show-style alternative reality for the mad old bastard. Plus it would combine his other love of reality TV with great ratings, albeit he wouldn't know it.
I don't think he'll run, though. He'll probably tease all the way to the line, as his influence depends on the fear he'll go again. But he was very personally hurt by defeat and ego preservation means he probably won't risk in the end - if a proxy or other GOPer loses then that's great for him, as he gets to say "of course, I'd have won".
There was a telling clip in the current series Trump Takes on the World. In a presser during what ever Sino squabble Trump was then in, he ended by saying 'we're winning, we always win'. The internet is littered with quotes from him about winning. For him to run again there would have to be some acknowledgment of him having legitimately lost in 2020, else why jump into the whole rigged procession again? Dunno if he's psychologically capable of that.
I come to the contrary conclusion. The whole point of running again in 2024 is that he cannot accept that he lost in 2020. So he runs again to right the wrong of the election being stolen from him - presumably after four years of fighting to put Trump loyalists in charge in as many States as possible, and in as many Congressional Districts as possible.
If the Trump cancer continues to spread then it's by no means impossible that a strong set of mid-term elections would give him a majority for not certifying the votes of States that go against him.
Not saying that isn't possible, but is a presidential campaign starting off on a basis of 'our democracy is rigged against me, vote for me' sustainable?
Accepting logical contradictions is baked into the current incarnation of the Republican party, so yes.
As for "trucks going back empty" - trucks have always gone back empty. In case you haven't noticed it we won a mammoth trade deficit with the Continent and long have done, that's why the trucks are empty it isn't new.
A literal rewriting of the facts and the established economics of logistics by the PB Expert in
You're saying trucks never went back empty previously? 🤔
Quite pleased the ISIS member has been refused the right to return.
Of course, she's still alive. Unlike the children crucified by the group she travelled a thousand miles to join. Or that Jordanian pilot (I forget if he was burned alive or dissolved in acid). And a great many Yazidis.
The interviews with her were interesting. Apparently she is quite sorry. For herself. There was no appreciation that the people she was personally involved in victimising might just have been victims as well.
PARIS — Alain Fischer, the head of France’s vaccine strategy orientation council, said on Thursday that recent findings suggest the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine "is efficient in people aged over 65," and said the country's health authority would look again into its recommendations for the jab.
If only 60% of the population has the vaccine then even with a good 90% efficacy then they cannot reach herd immunity through vaccination.
I find it mind-boggling how short sighted leaders in the EU have been in trying to score political points. I try and imagine what the UK reaction would be if the situation had been reversed. I don't really believe that we would have or that if we had that opposition parties would have let it go. I don't see (many) opposition politicians in the EU lining up the criticize what they did.
I wonder how doing the younger age groups will be affected by their much lower association with their GP's. When I was professionally involved with these matters it was, quite frankly, astounding at which the number of prescriptions per head increased shortly after age 65. IIRC it was something 2-3 per person per year in the 'around 40's' rising to something like 10 pa in the over 65's. In other words, cooler people are likely to have regular contact with GP surgeries, and for their registrations to be up-t-date an accurate. That doesn't by any means apply lower down the age ranges. Our system of registration with a GP also means that contact with patients is much easier.
One group who do have a good association with their GPs are asthmatics. It wouldn’t have been an undue complication to say that those receiving the winter flu jab who haven’t yet been vaccinated should be once phase 1 is completed. That would be non-severe asthma sufferers under the age of 50. The GPs have this data and it would give relief to those who may have been particularly anxious.
I can understand fishermen being upset with the new bureaucracy and hurdles, but I don't get the total dismissal of the significant uplift in their quotas by 25% overall, which we put the whole trade deal on the line for on their behalf.
It seems some of them genuinely thought they'd get 100% of the fish in all our waters and free rein to sell it on to the EU with no extra hassle whatsoever.
That was never realistic.
Lol. Many fishermen have had a cut in their quota. Of the ones with an increase in their quota they now find themselves unable to export the extra fish they can now catch. Which makes catching them uneconomical.
Do you actually understand how things work in the real world? You see those seas surrounding the UK? Most of the little fishies are types that British people do not eat. They are fish that foreign types like to eat. So we export most of our catch to them, and import the fishies we do like eating which mainly swim in forrin waters.
Being able to catch more mackrel is fucking useless to a fisherman if he can't sell them for a profit. Nor will Shagger's "eat British fish" campaign persuade us to have Mackrel and Chips.
When will they shift to 24/7 vaccinations, if at all?
I can (and) would take a 3am slot a week on Friday, as opposed to a 2pm slot on a Wednesday in 2 months time.
When under the under 50s programme starts I guess.
I rather doubt that. 24-hour operation doesn't make sense unless the physical premises are the limiting factor, which surely isn't the case. It's not as though we're trying to make maximum use of expensive or hard-to-get equipment. The rate is limited by supply, distribution, and the physical hours that the jabbers can work (and work safely).
It always was a f***ing stupid idea but it filled empty space and newspaper columns.
Shamina Begum denied right of return to the UK by the Supreme Court. Huge victory for the government.
They declared her a national security risk to secure the desired verdict. She's now caught in Kafka limbo. Cannot enter the UK so cannot fight her exile from the UK. By all means cheer the outcome but it's no great vindication of the government.
Quite pleased the ISIS member has been refused the right to return.
Of course, she's still alive. Unlike the children crucified by the group she travelled a thousand miles to join. Or that Jordanian pilot (I forget if he was burned alive or dissolved in acid). And a great many Yazidis.
And her three kids have died as a bonus. The war on woke gets better every day.
As for "trucks going back empty" - trucks have always gone back empty. In case you haven't noticed it we won a mammoth trade deficit with the Continent and long have done, that's why the trucks are empty it isn't new.
A literal rewriting of the facts and the established economics of logistics by the PB Expert in
You're saying trucks never went back empty previously? 🤔
Are you sure about that? 100? 🤔
Classic Philip strawman goodness. It is the *quantity* of trucks now going back empty which is the very real crisis for the logistics industry. Telling them that nothing has changed just makes you sound about as clued up as Theresa May at a campaign stop in an empty warehouse.
I can understand fishermen being upset with the new bureaucracy and hurdles, but I don't get the total dismissal of the significant uplift in their quotas by 25% overall, which we put the whole trade deal on the line for on their behalf.
It seems some of them genuinely thought they'd get 100% of the fish in all our waters and free rein to sell it on to the EU with no extra hassle whatsoever.
That was never realistic.
We gave then 25% more catch and removed the market they sell it to. Their extra 25% now simply rots in transit. The 25% is useless if you cannot sell it, so now they are going out of business because they have no customers.
Quite pleased the ISIS member has been refused the right to return.
Of course, she's still alive. Unlike the children crucified by the group she travelled a thousand miles to join. Or that Jordanian pilot (I forget if he was burned alive or dissolved in acid). And a great many Yazidis.
Question. This principle that the Home Secretary has the absolute right to remove citizenship from anyone they like. You would have been happy for Diane Abbott to have those powers, yes...?
Shamina Begum denied right of return to the UK by the Supreme Court. Huge victory for the government.
They declared her a national security risk to secure the desired verdict. She's now caught in Kafka limbo. Cannot enter the UK so cannot fight her exile from the UK. By all means cheer the outcome but it's no great vindication of the government.
I find it hard to sympathise with someone whose apparent regret was her personal circumstances. Rather than the enslaved women she helped enslave, for example.
Her interviews reminded me of Ezra Pound - whining that it was really unfair that he was treated like a person who had done something wrong.
PARIS — Alain Fischer, the head of France’s vaccine strategy orientation council, said on Thursday that recent findings suggest the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine "is efficient in people aged over 65," and said the country's health authority would look again into its recommendations for the jab.
You release none of us wanted to leave because we thought we’d improve our trade access to the EU right*? We voted to leave because we wanted to bin all the rest of it. We’d be richer in the EU, or as the 51st US State, or as a province of China; but some things are more important than money. It’s been nearly five years and still people don’t understand the motivations.
*Well no one sensible. Farage or David Davis might have.
Absolutely. "I want to be poorer" was definitely the reason why the red wall voted for Brexit and how clever of you to point this out.
I am breaking my rule about posting more than once per day on PB, but ".... Well no one sensible. Farage or David Davis might have"
Shamina Begum denied right of return to the UK by the Supreme Court. Huge victory for the government.
They declared her a national security risk to secure the desired verdict. She's now caught in Kafka limbo. Cannot enter the UK so cannot fight her exile from the UK. By all means cheer the outcome but it's no great vindication of the government.
She was declared a national security risk, because she appears to.be one...
she played a much more active role in the organisation’s reign of terror as a member of the “hisba” – which metes out punishment to those found flouting Isis laws on how to dress and behave.
One activist quoted by the newspaper said Begum had been seen holding an automatic weapon and shouting at Syrian women in the city of Raqqa for wearing brightly coloured shoes.
There were separate allegations that Begum stitched suicide bombers into explosive vests, so they could not be removed without detonating
The Mail on Sunday reported that the prime minister and home secretary had been briefed on intelligence received by the CIA and Dutch military intelligence.
The question of whether pregnant women should have the vaccine is going to become rather significant as we get down the age bands. The advice at the moment is rather vague.
I think they truly expected the UK to show some kind of deference to EU regulatory and foreign policy. They believe it is the rational thing to do in Europe as they think EU=Europe. .. .
Of course they did. No-one in the EU, or indeed anywhere else in the world, expected the UK to be so utterly irrational as to impose economic sanctions on itself, severely damaging multiple industries and even driving business away from its world-beating financial service sector, or to insist on maximum regulatory divergence between one part of the UK and another.
The scale of the disastrous course Boris has taken is breath-taking, even if at the moment it's hidden under the pandemic.
Honestly, you've got probably the worst case of Stockholm syndrome other than Philip Hammond.
I'm just looking the facts. Fishing industry - completed stuffed. Any small business importing or exporting - massively damaged. Musicians, theatre touring, fashion industry, au-pair agencies - torpedoed out of sheer ideological spite, for absolutely no rational reason whatsoever. Euro-denominated trading - leaching out of the City. Daffodil producers - clobbered. The border in the Irish Sea - catastrophic. Lamb exporters - massive extra costs and hassle. Computer systems: not written yet. Trucks going back empty because the hassle and cost of the paperwork is disproportionate. The list is endless, and there's much more to come (we haven't even started customs checks our end, and the grace periods on the EU side will come to end).
The mental gymnastics Brexiteers go through to persuade themselves that this is what Vote Leave promised, and what they expected back in 2016, is a wonder to behold. The most hilarious bit of it is the bizarre claim that putting up massive trade barriers (even within its own borders!) shows that the UK is a champion of free trade. Was there ever a greater cognitive dissonance?
And yet thousands of EU based institutions are opening up UK branch offices to ensure they don't lose access to London's markets should the EU decide against equivalence. I'm not sure how much value the rest actually has and the special pleading from certain industries that have always been anti-brexit isn't a huge surprise. Fishing is a really big who gives a shit 0.01% of GDP industry. I've not read the complaints from fashion, would be interested to see what the complaints are if you have any links.
Of course fishing is tiny, but it's the Brexiteers who decided it was a key objective to protect it, and instead have absolutely kiboshed it. And of course each of those sectors hit is individually small as a proportion of GDP, but taken together they add up to a lot of jobs and a lot of added value.
And yes of course EU based institutions are setting up UK branch offices. They have to now, it's an extra cost of doing business in London. That's bad news, not good news, and the corollary is of course that banks from all over the world can no longer rely on London-based branches to service the EU27, so are setting up branch offices within the EU. Putting up trade frictions in our most important industry - one of the very few sectors in which we have a world-class competitive advantage - is just mind-blowingly stupid. Thanks to Boris and David Frost, we've managed to sign up to a thin deal which protects EU exports to the UK and clobbers UK exports to the EU. It barely mentions services. How dumb was that?
Fishing was a distraction to keep the French and Barnier preoccupied while the Brits got everything else. On almost every major issue outstanding in the end like LPF we got more what we wanted while we gave some ground on fishing. The fishing industry will need to adjust to the new reality but the fact the most vocal objections come from the Scottish lobbyists funded by the Scottish government smells a bit fishy.
On fashion the fashion industry will have to get used to it. Just because they're complaining doesn't mean its the end of the world. People in fashion regularly work in both New York and Paris without them being the same country or area. Que sera sera.
As for setting up PO Box branch offices its not such a big deal. Businesses are setting up paper offices then moving on - and we're out of the market, out of their regulations and most importantly regulate the City of London by ourselves and not have Brussels regulating the City.
If the choice is between having Brussels regulating the City post-Brexit with us having not veto, or London regulates the City and businesses set up PO Box paper branch offices then I choose the PO Box paper branch office every time. The City is too important to be regulated by Brussels and not London.
Shamina Begum denied right of return to the UK by the Supreme Court. Huge victory for the government.
They declared her a national security risk to secure the desired verdict. She's now caught in Kafka limbo. Cannot enter the UK so cannot fight her exile from the UK. By all means cheer the outcome but it's no great vindication of the government.
I find it hard to sympathise with someone whose apparent regret was her personal circumstances. Rather than the enslaved women she helped enslave, for example.
Her interviews reminded me of Ezra Pound - whining that it was really unfair that he was treated like a person who had done something wrong.
Was the whining Ezra Pound a 21 year old girl who had lost 3 young children?
Shamina Begum denied right of return to the UK by the Supreme Court. Huge victory for the government.
They declared her a national security risk to secure the desired verdict. She's now caught in Kafka limbo. Cannot enter the UK so cannot fight her exile from the UK. By all means cheer the outcome but it's no great vindication of the government.
Many things are legal without feeling great. There are powers the gov has on these issues which some think it should not have but thats immaterial as to whether they do. From the brief write up seems like the court recognised that the issues here can lead to difficulties, but that in the circumstances of this particular person the approach holds up for now. Either way, she has destroyed her own life.
Another way to stop invasion might be to build Taiwanese processor plants in easy-to-helilift units - get the whole of their productive capacity away and onto US vessels within 24 hours.
Not even remotely possible, alas. Semiconductor fabs have two unfortunate attributes; they're very, very large and filled with equipment that is hugely expensive and so exquisitely fragile that even specks of dust can cause them to produce lumps of dead silicon rather than working chips.
Which is part of the problem with Taiwan. A couple of bombs dropped in the right place could take a big chunk of the world's semiconductor capacity off-line for possibly years.
Shamina Begum denied right of return to the UK by the Supreme Court. Huge victory for the government.
They declared her a national security risk to secure the desired verdict. She's now caught in Kafka limbo. Cannot enter the UK so cannot fight her exile from the UK. By all means cheer the outcome but it's no great vindication of the government.
It's a huge judgment and sets the basis that any individual right can't override public safety issues with terrorism where there is specific evidence that a person will be a risk to public safety.
It's a huge win for the government and the nation. That you're upset about it is probably a fairly good sign that it's the right decision. All we need now is for the fox killing lawyer to pipe up about how awful it is and we'll know for sure.
Not really. The bond markets have been bouyant because investors have had nowhere else to park their money, if yields are rising it means that money is being unlocked for real investment in the economy. Rising yields in this kind of manner is a sign of rising investor confidence for the near future.
Shamina Begum denied right of return to the UK by the Supreme Court. Huge victory for the government.
They declared her a national security risk to secure the desired verdict. She's now caught in Kafka limbo. Cannot enter the UK so cannot fight her exile from the UK. By all means cheer the outcome but it's no great vindication of the government.
Maybe she shouldn't have been a national security risk who joined with terrorists who decapitate people? Just a thought?
So she was a ISIS recruiter, part of the ISIS mortality police handing out Draconian punishes and maker of suicide vests that couldn't be removed, high ranking / well known enough that multiple.intelligence agencies had intel on her....or just a simple housewife.
As likely to be present but not involved as Piers Corbyn at a anti-COVID demo.
Shamina Begum denied right of return to the UK by the Supreme Court. Huge victory for the government.
They declared her a national security risk to secure the desired verdict. She's now caught in Kafka limbo. Cannot enter the UK so cannot fight her exile from the UK. By all means cheer the outcome but it's no great vindication of the government.
It's a huge judgment and sets the basis that any individual right can't override public safety issues with terrorism where there is specific evidence that a person will be a risk to public safety.
It's a huge win for the government and the nation. That you're upset about it is probably a fairly good sign that it's the right decision. All we need now is for the fox killing lawyer to pipe up about how awful it is and we'll know for sure.
Spot on. Actions - like joining a death cult and waging war on the world - have consequences. Frankly, the more dire they are, the better to deter others from following in her footsteps.
Not even remotely possible, alas. Semiconductor fabs have two unfortunate attributes; they're very, very large and filled with equipment that is hugely expensive and so exquisitely fragile that even specks of dust can cause them to produce lumps of dead silicon rather than working chips.
Which is part of the problem with Taiwan. A couple of bombs dropped in the right place could take a big chunk of the world's semiconductor capacity off-line for possibly years.
The day we visited the Edinburgh University Fab Lab the million dollar wafer stepper was offline.
What choice has he got? Trump is going to be the 2024 candidate no matter what Cecil Turtle says so he might as well get on board with it.
I’m not sure he’s got the attention span to still be interested in three years has he? And being President is a lot of work. I still think Trump TV is more likely.
He fucking loved being President as it combined three of greatest pleasures in life: getting as high as fuck on pills, license to grope women and having music play whenever he entered a room,
I wouldn't be surprised if he announced his 2024 bid at this CPAC wankathon at the weekend.
All this just proves the point that the best thing for America would've been to create a Truman Show-style alternative reality for the mad old bastard. Plus it would combine his other love of reality TV with great ratings, albeit he wouldn't know it.
I don't think he'll run, though. He'll probably tease all the way to the line, as his influence depends on the fear he'll go again. But he was very personally hurt by defeat and ego preservation means he probably won't risk in the end - if a proxy or other GOPer loses then that's great for him, as he gets to say "of course, I'd have won".
There was a telling clip in the current series Trump Takes on the World. In a presser during what ever Sino squabble Trump was then in, he ended by saying 'we're winning, we always win'. The internet is littered with quotes from him about winning. For him to run again there would have to be some acknowledgment of him having legitimately lost in 2020, else why jump into the whole rigged procession again? Dunno if he's psychologically capable of that.
I come to the contrary conclusion. The whole point of running again in 2024 is that he cannot accept that he lost in 2020. So he runs again to right the wrong of the election being stolen from him - presumably after four years of fighting to put Trump loyalists in charge in as many States as possible, and in as many Congressional Districts as possible.
If the Trump cancer continues to spread then it's by no means impossible that a strong set of mid-term elections would give him a majority for not certifying the votes of States that go against him.
Not saying that isn't possible, but is a presidential campaign starting off on a basis of 'our democracy is rigged against me, vote for me' sustainable?
The question of whether pregnant women should have the vaccine is going to become rather significant as we get down the age bands. The advice at the moment is rather vague.
My sister (she's pregnant) has been advised by her GP that she should wait until after she's had the baby. She asked one of the faculty members at her workplace and basically the NHS are (fairly) taking a safety first approach with pregnant women while the trial is completed in the US for safety.
Shamina Begum denied right of return to the UK by the Supreme Court. Huge victory for the government.
They declared her a national security risk to secure the desired verdict. She's now caught in Kafka limbo. Cannot enter the UK so cannot fight her exile from the UK. By all means cheer the outcome but it's no great vindication of the government.
I find it hard to sympathise with someone whose apparent regret was her personal circumstances. Rather than the enslaved women she helped enslave, for example.
Her interviews reminded me of Ezra Pound - whining that it was really unfair that he was treated like a person who had done something wrong.
Was the whining Ezra Pound a 21 year old girl who had lost 3 young children?
They are both adults who have/had moral agency. Or are you being sexist and ageist?
What choice has he got? Trump is going to be the 2024 candidate no matter what Cecil Turtle says so he might as well get on board with it.
I’m not sure he’s got the attention span to still be interested in three years has he? And being President is a lot of work. I still think Trump TV is more likely.
He fucking loved being President as it combined three of greatest pleasures in life: getting as high as fuck on pills, license to grope women and having music play whenever he entered a room,
I wouldn't be surprised if he announced his 2024 bid at this CPAC wankathon at the weekend.
All this just proves the point that the best thing for America would've been to create a Truman Show-style alternative reality for the mad old bastard. Plus it would combine his other love of reality TV with great ratings, albeit he wouldn't know it.
I don't think he'll run, though. He'll probably tease all the way to the line, as his influence depends on the fear he'll go again. But he was very personally hurt by defeat and ego preservation means he probably won't risk in the end - if a proxy or other GOPer loses then that's great for him, as he gets to say "of course, I'd have won".
There was a telling clip in the current series Trump Takes on the World. In a presser during what ever Sino squabble Trump was then in, he ended by saying 'we're winning, we always win'. The internet is littered with quotes from him about winning. For him to run again there would have to be some acknowledgment of him having legitimately lost in 2020, else why jump into the whole rigged procession again? Dunno if he's psychologically capable of that.
I come to the contrary conclusion. The whole point of running again in 2024 is that he cannot accept that he lost in 2020. So he runs again to right the wrong of the election being stolen from him - presumably after four years of fighting to put Trump loyalists in charge in as many States as possible, and in as many Congressional Districts as possible.
If the Trump cancer continues to spread then it's by no means impossible that a strong set of mid-term elections would give him a majority for not certifying the votes of States that go against him.
Not saying that isn't possible, but is a presidential campaign starting off on a basis of 'our democracy is rigged against me, vote for me' sustainable?
It almost worked last time.
And he doesn't have to win - just get close enough to have another go at what he tried last time around.
Quite pleased the ISIS member has been refused the right to return.
Of course, she's still alive. Unlike the children crucified by the group she travelled a thousand miles to join. Or that Jordanian pilot (I forget if he was burned alive or dissolved in acid). And a great many Yazidis.
And her three kids have died as a bonus. The war on woke gets better every day.
If she gave a damn about her kids she could have stayed in a country with a National Health Service that would look after them rather than abandoning that to go to a third world warzone to join up with barbaric medieval retrogrades that prefer decapitating people and stitching people into suicide vests rather than looking after the best interests of children?
Zero sympathy. There's billions of people around the globe many of which struggle to look after their children. I'd rather give asylum to one of them, potentially one victimised by her, than see her back.
Comments
If they think the US won't engage....
The other fallout from Taiwan falling would be every single country in the world that doesn't have nuclear weapons acquiring them.
The Japanese would have them in days. I think that around the world *everyone* would suddenly find that nuclear power plants of a certain type were a great investment against global warming...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ming_treasure_voyages
After that, they were constrained by the new Western colonial powers, so saying that they weren't expansionist doesn't really mean all that much.
And when in their previous history did they establish overseas military naval bases ?
They are cautious and gradualist, rather than 'not particularly expansionist'.
I can see valid exceptions in some limited easy to do groups - e.g. teachers where it's easy enough to get a list (still logistics/efficiency loss of either going in to each school, with a long tail of very small schools or contacting teachers to go and attend somewhere else, but at least we know who they are). Similar arguments to healthcare workers who we have been doing. But how well do we know who other key workers are? Supermarket staffing is e.g quite fluid and you can't just rock up a a supermarket and do all their staff in one go.
That, and the possibility of US intervention, might be sufficient.
6% of the UK are actually French?
If the Trump cancer continues to spread then it's by no means impossible that a strong set of mid-term elections would give him a majority for not certifying the votes of States that go against him.
PARIS — Alain Fischer, the head of France’s vaccine strategy orientation council, said on Thursday that recent findings suggest the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine "is efficient in people aged over 65," and said the country's health authority would look again into its recommendations for the jab.
https://www.politico.eu/article/french-government-opens-door-to-astrazeneca-vaccine-for-the-elderly/
Not anything else.
A guerrilla war could last years in the mountains of Taiwan but, I'm not sure how up for it Taiwan is, and I think their plan is to defend it before the shoreline.
Just the capability to do it should be enough of a deterrent.
Then I woke up.
I don't get how anti-EU rampers don't understand this rather basic point. We have significantly - in some cases massively - increased the cost of doing day to day business. "We now have the same rules as everywhere else and business trades there so shut up remoaning" is the usual retort. Which misses that the reason why UK companies were so heavily trading with the EU and not ROW was a combination of distance and cost.
As for the deal, its a well-evidenced hypothesis that the "fuck business" government didn't understand how businesses actually trade, didn't ask them, and ignored them when they provided evidence. The political mission of delivering a narrow form of Brexit overrode all other considerations. That the narrow form was one they had propagandised as the only true form of Brexit is even more tragic - they could have spun Norway+ the same, delivered Brexit and not torpedoed our own economy.
BUT even if the true number were 90%, it would be quite literally a world-leading uptake rate, for any vaccine or similar public health measure, ever.
Greenwich was proposing to break the law.
Williamson is a fuckwit who made another bad call
I can (and) would take a 3am slot a week on Friday, as opposed to a 2pm slot on a Wednesday in 2 months time.
It seems some of them genuinely thought they'd get 100% of the fish in all our waters and free rein to sell it on to the EU with no extra hassle whatsoever.
That was never realistic.
https://benjaminreinhardt.com/wddw
For anyone interested in the topic, I'd strongly recommend it, as it's a brilliant summary.
AFAICS, the only things we're definitely duplicating are the opacity and lack of external oversight. While necessary to the way such an organisation works, without the other elements, they are a recipe for disaster.
https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1364887816568770565
Sunak's chances will be better if there is an early Conservative leadership contest before rather than after he has brought in the inevitable tax rises to come. If that is predictably accompanied by a reversal of the temporary largesse of the past year, his stock amongst the public will have unwound quickly. And then Conservative MPs, always motivated by self interest, and already annoyed by the tax increases, won't see any obvious reason to back Sunak on grounds of furthering their own prospects.
Here, it is more a matter of just a few weeks away for everybody at any significant risk. Once we are onto the sub 40 year olds, we are talking very low risk.
If only 60% of the population has the vaccine then even with a good 90% efficacy then they cannot reach herd immunity through vaccination.
I find it mind-boggling how short sighted leaders in the EU have been in trying to score political points. I try and imagine what the UK reaction would be if the situation had been reversed. I don't really believe that we would have or that if we had that opposition parties would have let it go. I don't see (many) opposition politicians in the EU lining up the criticize what they did.
Which is part of the problem with Taiwan. A couple of bombs dropped in the right place could take a big chunk of the world's semiconductor capacity off-line for possibly years.
I suspect that might actually be the case in a few places (where the communication links exist) but I struggle to see how it will work across the entire country.
https://twitter.com/TelegraphNews/status/1365240831301541894
Lord Reed: 'The Court of Appeal also appears to have overlooked the limitations to its competence, both institutional and constitutional, to decide questions of national security, as explained in Rehman, A, and Lord Carlile’s case.'
But TSMC having production capacity elsewhere would make the deterrent of salt-earthing their domestic production considerably more credible.
BBC News - Shamima Begum cannot return to UK, Supreme Court rules
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56209007
In other words, cooler people are likely to have regular contact with GP surgeries, and for their registrations to be up-t-date an accurate. That doesn't by any means apply lower down the age ranges.
Our system of registration with a GP also means that contact with patients is much easier.
Sounds a bit like "Gulag"
It's quite possible for a combination of a bad economy and Democratic missteps to put Trump within touching distance of power again. And the majority of the Republican party seems to be on board with completely abandoning the shared constitutional assumptions which have underpinned US democracy.
Of course, she's still alive. Unlike the children crucified by the group she travelled a thousand miles to join. Or that Jordanian pilot (I forget if he was burned alive or dissolved in acid). And a great many Yazidis.
What century are they living in?
He will never come out.
Are you sure about that? 100? 🤔
Her regret about the genocidal child-murderers she joined, who delighted in industrial scale rape, was that they were defeated.
I pity her child.
Do you actually understand how things work in the real world? You see those seas surrounding the UK? Most of the little fishies are types that British people do not eat. They are fish that foreign types like to eat. So we export most of our catch to them, and import the fishies we do like eating which mainly swim in forrin waters.
Being able to catch more mackrel is fucking useless to a fisherman if he can't sell them for a profit. Nor will Shagger's "eat British fish" campaign persuade us to have Mackrel and Chips.
Pathetic.
It is not really all that hard to grasp...
Her interviews reminded me of Ezra Pound - whining that it was really unfair that he was treated like a person who had done something wrong.
This place is becoming ConHome Lite...
Trouble ahead...
https://www.scottishparliament.tv/channel/committee-room-1
Due to start in 15 minutes
she played a much more active role in the organisation’s reign of terror as a member of the “hisba” – which metes out punishment to those found flouting Isis laws on how to dress and behave.
One activist quoted by the newspaper said Begum had been seen holding an automatic weapon and shouting at Syrian women in the city of Raqqa for wearing brightly coloured shoes.
There were separate allegations that Begum stitched suicide bombers into explosive vests, so they could not be removed without detonating
The Mail on Sunday reported that the prime minister and home secretary had been briefed on intelligence received by the CIA and Dutch military intelligence.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/shamima-begum-isis-syria-morality-police-suicide-belts-a8869016.html?amp
She didn't commit an act of jaywalking, and ISIS' murderous antics were not a secret.
I believe that the citizenship of Omar Bakri Mohammed was revoked when he was overseas, in a similar sort of way.
It's a huge win for the government and the nation. That you're upset about it is probably a fairly good sign that it's the right decision. All we need now is for the fox killing lawyer to pipe up about how awful it is and we'll know for sure.
Actions have consequences you know.
https://www.businessinsider.com/isis-bride-shamima-begum-allegedly-enforcer-in-morality-police-2019-4
So she was a ISIS recruiter, part of the ISIS mortality police handing out Draconian punishes and maker of suicide vests that couldn't be removed, high ranking / well known enough that multiple.intelligence agencies had intel on her....or just a simple housewife.
As likely to be present but not involved as Piers Corbyn at a anti-COVID demo.
The rubber band was broken...
Unprecedented numbers of students have disappeared during the pandemic. Schools are working harder than ever to find them.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/pandemic-schools-students-missing/2021/02/25/f0b27262-5ce8-11eb-a976-bad6431e03e2_story.html
Zero sympathy. There's billions of people around the globe many of which struggle to look after their children. I'd rather give asylum to one of them, potentially one victimised by her, than see her back.