Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
We get one of those nearly every day. Sometimes more than one.
The whole point of Millenials and younger staying at home for the past year was to protect those older than us who were at risk. Not to protect ourselves.
If our elders are vaccinated, if pubs and restaurants are open, then there's no justification to tell us its illegal to go out without a vaccine we can't get. If its legal to go out, I'm going out and I'll be damned if anyone tells me otherwise if its legal. Same with anyone else my age I'm sure. Why the hell should we rot at home for a day more than we need to once that's no longer the law?
If pubs and restaurants are open, they're open. I'm prepared to take my chances, I stayed at home to protect those older than me that were at risk not for myself.
Totally agree. This idea of "vaccine passports" for access to hospitality and leisure is a non-starter. It shouldn't happen and it will not be happening.
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Toby Young.
The vaccine "makes you a different person."
Hmm.
How did Toby Young ever get accepted into the University of Oxford?
Bit of 'Dad'll fix it', is what I heard.
Still, I'm sure he would have thrived at Exeter.
To think that, but for the intervention of a nepotistic Labour peer, we might never have heard of Toby Young...
Well there is no-one - no-one - with more impeccable credentials than me for pointing out the damage done to our society by allowing affluent, well-connected parents to nail down superior opportunities for their offspring.
Ah, but this case illustrates to perfection how universal and irrepressible the will to pass down such superior opportunities is. Michael Young wrote the 1945 Labour manifesto and literally coined the term 'meritocracy', but when it came down to his son and his place at Oxford, merit and social justice and egalitarianism could all go hang. He is the prince and avatar of all lefty hypocrites.
Young's book on meritocracy was written as a warning.
Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
He could probably have sorted out your Amazon Prime renewal for you too while you were on the line.
Looking ahead a few weeks, I don't see how it is going to be sustainable for the government to prohibit a group of friends of relatives, all of whom have been fully vaccinated, from meeting up outdoors or indoors. It seems to be that the government is blundering into a major misstep because it doesn't want to acknowledge that it is not rational to impose the same restrictions on the vaxxed and the unvaxxed. Quite apart from anything else, it's not helpful to the goal of encouraging take-up of the vaccines.
Yes. Either the vaccine is our route out or it is not.
But as I noted earlier, this means 20-30yr olds stuck at home while the oldies go out to party.
Either that or accept that the risk to 20-30yr olds is far lower than for the oldies and let them party anyway. But that would bring us back to the segmentation theory we discussed here on PB many moons ago.
Meanwhile we hear all the time about this sports star or athlete testing positive for Covid. I was idly wondering how many athletes had died as a result of Covid. Perhaps someone could help me.
In a way, saying that vaccines are the way out is an admission that lockdown was never going to be a sustainable long term solution.
Ffs, no one ever has said lockdown is the long term solution!
Which makes the turning up of vaccines, normally years in development, all the more wonderful.
Without them, the government would have faced an eternal lockdown until a kind of social and economic collapse took place.
If vaccine development was expected to take 10 years we would have needed a different approach with less lockdown measures, and accepted more deaths. Expectation was 1-2 years and it came in just under 1 year, of course thats wonderful but if it had been 2 years the lockdown policy would still have been broadly the right one.
I will turn into a lockdown sceptic myself sometime in March, it is not necessary once the threat to the health service is removed.
There were three possibilities that buying time bought you:
- Rapid Vaccine development (achieved) - Reliable and successful treatments (still working on it) - Rapid and reliable ubiquitous testing (may be rolled out soon in order to accelerate unlocking anyway)
It would be political suicide to admit it, but I do think that the current state of play does indicate that the government anticipates a controlled spread of the virus accross the country. There was a quote from a SAGE member in the FT the other week suggesting that discussion around a "big wave" of infections was about to happen- ("There will be a massive debate about whether we should allow a big wave of infection once we've vaccinated all the over 50s...Are we going to aim for low prevalence or accept high prevalence for a period?") The roadmap suggests that controlling infection and keeping R below 1 isn't everything anymore - such rates are only a problem if they risk a surge in hospital admissions. No-one is ever, ever, going to come out and say it but it does seem that, to an extent, that the Herd Immunity strategy that Imperial shot down last 16 March may be back in a more controlled way. And given we are over a third of the way to their predicted deaths without NPI's anyway...
The whole point of Millenials and younger staying at home for the past year was to protect those older than us who were at risk. Not to protect ourselves.
If our elders are vaccinated, if pubs and restaurants are open, then there's no justification to tell us its illegal to go out without a vaccine we can't get. If its legal to go out, I'm going out and I'll be damned if anyone tells me otherwise if its legal. Same with anyone else my age I'm sure. Why the hell should we rot at home for a day more than we need to once that's no longer the law?
If pubs and restaurants are open, they're open. I'm prepared to take my chances, I stayed at home to protect those older than me that were at risk not for myself.
Philip I agree with you 100%. It's just that the government has not distinguished itself with such decisions. We have had government by Chief Medical Officer, for better or worse, for the past year. Do you think the CMO will be happy to let unvaccinated people go and mix with everyone else?
And if you have a scintilla of concern that he may not, dare I say welcome to the world of for example @contrarian and, to a lesser degree, of me.
I sincerely hope they follow your well-reasoned logic.
I don't give a damn what the CMO thinks. Telling young people lockdown has lifted but not for them will never work. It won't be respected.
Currently and for the past year I've respected the law but try this nonsense and that is over. No chance. Which is why it won't be tried.
Good luck getting teenagers to respect the Police telling them Lockdown is over but they can't party! 😂
Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
We get one of those nearly every day. Sometimes more than one.
So infuriating aren't they. My record is 12 minutes. He went through all the steps and I still said I couldn't quite understand what he meant, as my Mac wasn't playing up at all.
Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
We get one of those nearly every day. Sometimes more than one.
Is it me, or have these things gotten worse recently? Thankfully my parents are well trained and as soon as they suspect anything they slam the phone down!
The aircraft industry seems to be experiencing more problems over the last 5 years than in the previous 40 put together. I wonder why. Well, we know overconfidence in software systems is one of the reasons with regard to the 737 Max.
Not just overconfidence, but deliberate messing around with safety, via not requiring training in the new software systems primarily as making such training mandatory would have slowed sales.
"Britain should follow Australia in requiring Facebook to pay for news content it hosts, Matt Hancock signalled as the government confirmed it was considering legislation to crack down on the social media giant.
Hancock, the health secretary, said that Oliver Dowden, the digital, culture, media and sport secretary, was looking “very closely” at how the UK could make Facebook compensate media outlets for content on its sites."
Because Germany has completely fucked up the publicity around the Oxford-AZ vaccine, by smearing it as useless, via absurdly fake news stories sourced from embarrassed politicians, they are now having to do an official news campaign to persuade Germans that, no, honestly, it is really safe and effective, after all.
What's the theory then?
That they didn't think the smear campaign would work - and now it has they are trying to undo it?
There is no theory. It's just a series of grave missteps which they are now desperately trying to amend.
The theory I'm seeing - and am in the process of evaluating - is that a plan was hatched in the upper echelons of Brussels, Paris and Berlin, to smear the AZ vaccine with the objective of rendering it next to useless in the eyes of their vulnerable, locked down populations.
That's a MASSIVE allegation.
Well, there is evidence for that
"Early results from AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine appear to show it is ineffective for people over 65 years of age, French President Emmanuel Macron has said.
Macron said there was "very little information" available for the vaccine developed by the British-Swedish company and Oxford University.
"Today we think that it is quasi-ineffective for people over 65," he told the reporters, his office confirmed to AFP.
"What I can tell you officially today is that the early results we have are not encouraging for 60 to 65-year-old people concerning AstraZeneca," he said.
The 2 biggest screwups of this pandemic by our government are moving people into care homes and allowing unrestricted international travel for most of the last 14 months. Both undoubtedly caused thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of unnecessary deaths.
On the first I would say this. This decision was made at the time that we were seeking to set up the Nightingale hospitals, where the media were full of pictures of the disaster in northern Italy and the many, many unnecessary deaths suffered there because their health system was overwhelmed. The expectation of the government at the time was that the NHS would be similarly overwhelmed in early course. I think SAGE and other advisors from the NHS were seriously close to panic, and rightly so.
In that environment some pretty tough decisions were made. A lot of hospital beds were filled with what we have traditionally called bed blockers, people who didn't really need to be in hospital but were because our care system is crap and a suitable plan had not been put together. I suspect instructions were given to move these people out whether they had a full care plan or not so that the beds were available for those for whom they might do more good. So they were punted to care homes with minimal plans and, critically, no checks as to whether they had themselves been infected.
As it turns out the Nightingale hospitals were barely used, although the NHS was stretched severely it did not fall over and things did not turn out as bad as had entirely reasonably been feared. That makes the decision to move people out to care homes where inadequately trained and provisioned staff failed to prevent the spread of the disease amongst many of our most vulnerable look very wrong. And it was wrong, but only in hindsight.
I am not saying this is right, I simply say that there is a plausible explanation for what happened and that explanation is consistent with the same thing happening in England, Scotland, Wales and NI, apparently independently. I think it is possible that this decision might be justifiable at the time it was made.
Our policies on air travel throughout the pandemic, however, I simply find beyond rational explanation.
Good post. Not to say that it would have changed things - perhaps it wouldn't have - but its attempt to "keep the UK open", and thereby continue with international air travel, might have been a (large?) factor in the government going all in and early on the vaccines.
Hmm, from reading what's available the original vaccine drive started in around February with a group of UK biotech companies getting together independently to support the development of the Oxford vaccine. I'm not sure how much of a factor air travel was. I think the government has always seen vaccines as the endgame state so would have done it regardless.
What's interesting is that the UK suffers from almost no vaccine hesitancy and that is in part due to the horrific death rates over the last year and the government linking unlockdown to vaccination. In a perverse way the high death toll may end up meaning a much faster and higher take up of vaccines by the general public. In SK there is much higher vaccine hesitancy, a lot of that is surely because they've not had the alternative of people dying in their thousands and hospitals being overwhelmed leading to indefinite lockdowns.
I think there might be some truth in that. I'm certainly surprised by the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy in most of the Germans I know around here in Cologne.
But also look at the past record of vaccination - the UK normally vaccinates more than twice as many over 65s against flu as Germany does. And contributed far more to GAVI than other European countries already 10 years ago, so there's a whole bunch of factors probably.
While the EU vaccine procurement scheme has been crap, it doesn't seem to have been significantly worse than other continental western European countries (ie Switzerland and Norway). And not everything is seen through the lens of Brexit on the continent (I think it's probably true to say that nothing is except Brexit itself, which has barely made the news at all for about 3 years and was over a long time ago so far as most people are concerned), unlike on PB.com. In my entirely anecdotal experience, people are more likely to compare the slow vaccine rollout in Germany with the speed of Israel than with the UK.
Which is an odd one because Germany's second wave has been pretty horrific and I thought the lockdown had just been extended as well. One would hope that people see vaccines as the way out of this, lockdowns aren't an end state. I have to say the German media has had a really poor time of it on the AZ vaccine, it could lead to a prolonged lockdown because people are stupidly not taking it despite it being a really great vaccine. I really, really hope that the UK data coming out over the next few days will convince people to just get it done.
Yes, I can't think of any justification for using "anonymous sources" for claims that a vaccine doesn't work, those 2 newspapers should come clean and say who was spreading such rubbish, or apologise. The German vaccine agency hasn't helped by recommending AZ vaccine only for under 65s - maybe that will change now that more data is available.
The lockdown has just been relaxed, in the sense that in most states schools reopened today, with small groups, no mixing, and masks on all the time. And the second wave has been worse than the first, but still not as bad as many other places, and hospitals have never been close to being overwhelmed - Germany is still treating small numbers of patients from neighbours (as well as sending some equipment and doctors to Portugal).
But, yes lots of "hesitant" people are looking at what happens in Israel and the UK before being keen to take a vaccine. I know a few proper anti-vaxxers too - I don't think they will ever be convinced, on certain topics they are impervious to any contact with reality, though otherwise lovely people - but they are much smaller numbers.
I have no idea if this is true, but I read that the nonsense Handelsblatt report came from a source in the German Health Ministry, and possibly the Health Minister himself: which would explain why journalists were willing to take it at face value.
Surely such a senior politician would not lie about such an important point? Well, yes, he might, if he and his government were really embarrassed by the slow-roll out of the EU vaccine programme in Germany, and they wanted to divert attention.
Tut, tut, tut
In the UK those journos would have been fired a few days later.
What is your source that it was Spahn? (I would be very surprised)
Well he responded to the stories by saying that mRNA vaccines have higher effectiveness and not recommending AZ for over-65s.
That article quotes him as saying something like "mRNA vaccines are probably even more effective", which doesn't seem controversial - isn't that what most people thought due to the data from AZ compared to Pfizer and Moderna, so I can't see how that is in any sense whatsoever a source for the claim that Spahn was the source.
Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
We get one of those nearly every day. Sometimes more than one.
Is it me, or have these things gotten worse recently? Thankfully my parents are well trained and as soon as they suspect anything they slam the phone down!
If my landline phone goes it is either a scammer, my elderly step-mother (who will then try my mobile: one day I'll get her to do phone that one first) or BT trying to send me a text. I now always let it go to the answerphone.
Back when I used to answer it my best effort was claiming not to own a phone...
The whole point of Millenials and younger staying at home for the past year was to protect those older than us who were at risk. Not to protect ourselves.
If our elders are vaccinated, if pubs and restaurants are open, then there's no justification to tell us its illegal to go out without a vaccine we can't get. If its legal to go out, I'm going out and I'll be damned if anyone tells me otherwise if its legal. Same with anyone else my age I'm sure. Why the hell should we rot at home for a day more than we need to once that's no longer the law?
If pubs and restaurants are open, they're open. I'm prepared to take my chances, I stayed at home to protect those older than me that were at risk not for myself.
Philip I agree with you 100%. It's just that the government has not distinguished itself with such decisions. We have had government by Chief Medical Officer, for better or worse, for the past year. Do you think the CMO will be happy to let unvaccinated people go and mix with everyone else?
And if you have a scintilla of concern that he may not, dare I say welcome to the world of for example @contrarian and, to a lesser degree, of me.
I sincerely hope they follow your well-reasoned logic.
I don't give a damn what the CMO thinks. Telling young people lockdown has lifted but not for them will never work. It won't be respected.
Currently and for the past year I've respected the law but try this nonsense and that is over. No chance. Which is why it won't be tried.
Good luck getting teenagers to respect the Police telling them Lockdown is over but they can't party! 😂
As I said, welcome to our world. The police have been telling teenagers for the past year not to party so they are at least used to it.
This just goes to show. All the restrictions, all the CMO-dictated measures are absolutely fine and anyone who voices any, er, contrary voices is ridiculed. Until peoples' own red line is crossed. Then it's an outrage.
Because Germany has completely fucked up the publicity around the Oxford-AZ vaccine, by smearing it as useless, via absurdly fake news stories sourced from embarrassed politicians, they are now having to do an official news campaign to persuade Germans that, no, honestly, it is really safe and effective, after all.
What's the theory then?
That they didn't think the smear campaign would work - and now it has they are trying to undo it?
They didn't think.
They lashed out trying to get the vaccine as they were desperate to get it.
When that failed they were humiliated and lashed out discrediting it so it didn't seem such a big deal they didn't have it.
Once in a hole, stop digging.
You need to be careful on the language front. It's just about ok here, and you're helped by having a point, but it's on the verge of tipping into quite open and visceral europhobia.
Also I can't quite recall - did you purchase the integrity needed for making these charges against the EU by retro condemning Johnson for his lives-costing mishandling of the lives-costing Cummings scandal?
If you did, fine. But I can't remember.
Its not Europhobia, its specific to the politicians concerned. That's Macron, Merkel and a few others especially. They're not all tainted by the same brush.
I've praised Ireland. The Irish response was "the best vaccine is the one available to you today". That was very well put and should have been the response other countries had. Blaming people isn't blaming the institution - this was not an institutional failure it was a personal one by the people who screwed up.
The Cummings "scandal" didn't cost lives. So no, it was much ado about nothing and remotely comparing it with fuelling antivax conspiracies is patent codswallop.
So you didn't reclaim your integrity then and do not wish to do so now. Fair enough. Free country. But this means all your posts attacking the EU on vaccines are fish & chip paper. What a shame. There have been so many too and they weren't all devoid of merit.
Let me know if you change your mind.
On the europhobia, as I say, it's just on the right side of the line atm but it is in the danger zone. I sense "frogs" and "krauts" are not far away. But of course it would be unfair to condemn something before you've done it. I am, though, preparing to condemn. Which is in itself a serious thing.
You made a sarcastic remark about the "upper echelons of Brussels, Berlin and Paris conspiring to smear the Astra Zeneca vaccine", as if such a thing were clearly impossible.
I have shown you direct evidence that the President of France - the very definition of an "upper echelon" - made a frankly desperate, laughably bizarre attempt to smear the Astra Zeneca vaccine.
Oddly, you ignore it.
I do not know if there was any conspiracy. I do know, as we have concrete proof, that at the highest levels in France - Macron - and at very high levels in Germany - the Health Ministry via Handelsblatt - they were trying to smear the AZ vaccine back in January.
I probably wouldn't say "conspiring to smear". I would say "a concerted effort to smear".
Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
We get one of those nearly every day. Sometimes more than one.
Is it me, or have these things gotten worse recently? Thankfully my parents are well trained and as soon as they suspect anything they slam the phone down!
Definitely higher frequency.
Its my shop phone so still 10:1 real to scam calls ratio. But it used to be 30:1
"Britain should follow Australia in requiring Facebook to pay for news content it hosts, Matt Hancock signalled as the government confirmed it was considering legislation to crack down on the social media giant.
Hancock, the health secretary, said that Oliver Dowden, the digital, culture, media and sport secretary, was looking “very closely” at how the UK could make Facebook compensate media outlets for content on its sites."
It would be political suicide to admit it, but I do think that the current state of play does indicate that the government anticipates a controlled spread of the virus accross the country. There was a quote from a SAGE member in the FT the other week suggesting that discussion around a "big wave" of infections was about to happen- ("There will be a massive debate about whether we should allow a big wave of infection once we've vaccinated all the over 50s...Are we going to aim for low prevalence or accept high prevalence for a period?") The roadmap suggests that controlling infection and keeping R below 1 isn't everything anymore - such rates are only a problem if they risk a surge in hospital admissions. No-one is ever, ever, going to come out and say it but it does seem that, to an extent, that the Herd Immunity strategy that Imperial shot down last 16 March may be back in a more controlled way. And given we are over a third of the way to their predicted deaths without NPI's anyway...
If permitted: Downsides include A. Some more deaths and hospitalisations (probably fairly predictable) B. Increased risk of homegrown virus mutations that could evade vaccines (as more virus replication happening across the population, more chance of getting troublesome mutations Benefits include C. Short term* (at least) economic benefits D. Other short term* benefits from lifting lockdown (mental health etc)
Probably, on any normal health economics basis, C easily outweighs A, particularly with additional health benefits from D.
The interesting one is B, particularly if it necessitated a later lockdown before new vaccines were developed. Probably hard to estimate the risk of that. Also will be a smaller risk than mutations happening elsewhere in the large unvaccinated population of the world and getting imported.
So, tends to point towards opening up early, but that could be politically risky if seen to be too early by later events (e.g. another later lockdown). If UK is still one of the first to open up (due to vaccination success) then there may not be that much political capital in opening up early compared to waiting a little/opening more cautiously.
*by short term I mean that we're probably talking about a few months either way. The benefits may of course have long term effects - save big business X, stop knock on effects of mental health in y people.
Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
We get one of those nearly every day. Sometimes more than one.
Is it me, or have these things gotten worse recently? Thankfully my parents are well trained and as soon as they suspect anything they slam the phone down!
Definitely higher frequency.
Its my shop phone so still 10:1 real to scam calls ratio. But it used to be 30:1
I always message shops and restaurants on Facebook, Whatsapp, or Twitter these days rather than calling them.
Looking ahead a few weeks, I don't see how it is going to be sustainable for the government to prohibit a group of friends of relatives, all of whom have been fully vaccinated, from meeting up outdoors or indoors. It seems to be that the government is blundering into a major misstep because it doesn't want to acknowledge that it is not rational to impose the same restrictions on the vaxxed and the unvaxxed. Quite apart from anything else, it's not helpful to the goal of encouraging take-up of the vaccines.
Yes. Either the vaccine is our route out or it is not.
But as I noted earlier, this means 20-30yr olds stuck at home while the oldies go out to party.
Either that or accept that the risk to 20-30yr olds is far lower than for the oldies and let them party anyway. But that would bring us back to the segmentation theory we discussed here on PB many moons ago.
Meanwhile we hear all the time about this sports star or athlete testing positive for Covid. I was idly wondering how many athletes had died as a result of Covid. Perhaps someone could help me.
In a way, saying that vaccines are the way out is an admission that lockdown was never going to be a sustainable long term solution.
Ffs, no one ever has said lockdown is the long term solution!
Watering one's garden in high summer is an admission that gazing into endless blue skies in the hope of rain is not a long-term solution.
Or that you are one of those people who thought to fit a water-butt or five.
Talking of which, I have such plans afoot. I want a good sized water-butt that I can draw water from easily for the plans, ideally under such pressure that it will drive a hose. Do such products even exist? Do the PB Gardeners have any recommendations?
You need to think a bit first. There are loads of options around.
I have a drip watering system that feeds off a pair of water butts with about 2ft of head pressure. I have a Klaber system. I leave it on for several hours at a time.
The water butts are the big ones from Wickes.
Alternatively you can get an underground tank (use a bottle profile sceptic tank) and a pump.
The aircraft industry seems to be experiencing more problems over the last 5 years than in the previous 40 put together. I wonder why. Well, we know overconfidence in software systems is one of the reasons with regard to the 737 Max.
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Toby Young.
The vaccine "makes you a different person."
Hmm.
How did Toby Young ever get accepted into the University of Oxford?
Bit of 'Dad'll fix it', is what I heard.
Still, I'm sure he would have thrived at Exeter.
To think that, but for the intervention of a nepotistic Labour peer, we might never have heard of Toby Young...
Well there is no-one - no-one - with more impeccable credentials than me for pointing out the damage done to our society by allowing affluent, well-connected parents to nail down superior opportunities for their offspring.
Ah, but this case illustrates to perfection how universal and irrepressible the will to pass down such superior opportunities is. Michael Young wrote the 1945 Labour manifesto and literally coined the term 'meritocracy', but when it came down to his son and his place at Oxford, merit and social justice and egalitarianism could all go hang. He is the prince and avatar of all lefty hypocrites.
Young's book on meritocracy was written as a warning.
Yes, he was afraid that a true meritocracy (i.e. not making every school a bog-standard, unselective comprehensive) would impede socialism. But when it came to his dear Tobes he decided to do away with both of those concepts and rely on hereditary privilege instead
I doubt anyone’s going to be flying one of those old P&W engines any time soon. That looked like a fan blade fatigue failure, which is tested for as part of the certification process.
Would have made one hell of a bang when it happened, although the cowlings departing made it look a lot worse than it was.
The important thing was that the high-energy parts appeared to have been contained within the engine structure.
Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
We get one of those nearly every day. Sometimes more than one.
I love winding them up. Wasting their time (I have plenty of my own to waste during lockdown)
You have to act dumb to start with, then slowly build the absurdity of your story: for true entertainment value
eg the insurance scammer. You were in a car accident and we can help you claim blah blah
Start off all nervy and hesitant. Then slowly admit Yes, you were in an accident. Recently. Quite bad. You got injured. Yes. Hospital yes. You lost a lot of blood. Yes. It was scary. Yes. Well, you were doing 110 mph. Drunk. On Oxford Street. And you lost an eye. Two legs. Penis. You ran over 49 boy scouts. Killed hundreds. How much can I claim?
Really drag it out and you can get a mildly diverting 20 minutes and you've made their stupid day a bit worse.
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Any opponent of lockdown would be very silly to get caught up with anti vaxxers. The two are very different issues with very different arguments. Apart from the anti-vaxxers. Who have no arguments.
Different but quite an overlap on participants. Speaking of lockdown skeptics, what's your view on Nige's decision to go big into the anti-Chinese space? To me, it looks like a rare misstep from the arch populist. His USP is he has both golf club and dog track appeal and I reckon this just plays to the first. Will the Red Wallies be in a spin about the Chinese muscling in on Eton? I wouldn't have thought so.
There is some overlap with regard to lockdown skeptics and anti vaxxers to be sure. They both come from libertarian "wild west thinking" - keep the state out of my life and we`ll battle nature in our own way thank you. Extreme libertarians will also instinctively oppose state-sponsored things such as compulsory wearing of seat belts and fluoridation of water. They seek maximum negative liberty and self-reliance.
This libertarian mindset is not present in most people, like me, who argue that issues around liberty are not fully priced into government policy. But we get placed in the same box unfortunately.
Not by me, you don't. And the 3rd strand is covid denialism. Either that it's a hoax or it's a little sniffle. This is present to a significant degree in both the other 2 groups.
If being against compulsory seat belts and fluouridisation of water is an extreme libertarian position, call me an extreme libertarian. I had no idea this position was extreme.
I do find it inconvenient that covid denialists (it doesn't exist) get lumped together with lockdown sceptics (the disease exists, but the cure is worse or doesn't work or both).
I am an enthusiastic vaxxer though. Though I get very uncomfortable with compulsory vaccination or any sort of removal of liberty for those who haven't been vaccinated.
It would be political suicide to admit it, but I do think that the current state of play does indicate that the government anticipates a controlled spread of the virus accross the country. There was a quote from a SAGE member in the FT the other week suggesting that discussion around a "big wave" of infections was about to happen- ("There will be a massive debate about whether we should allow a big wave of infection once we've vaccinated all the over 50s...Are we going to aim for low prevalence or accept high prevalence for a period?") The roadmap suggests that controlling infection and keeping R below 1 isn't everything anymore - such rates are only a problem if they risk a surge in hospital admissions. No-one is ever, ever, going to come out and say it but it does seem that, to an extent, that the Herd Immunity strategy that Imperial shot down last 16 March may be back in a more controlled way. And given we are over a third of the way to their predicted deaths without NPI's anyway...
If permitted: Downsides include A. Some more deaths and hospitalisations (probably fairly predictable) B. Increased risk of homegrown virus mutations that could evade vaccines (as more virus replication happening across the population, more chance of getting troublesome mutations Benefits include C. Short term* (at least) economic benefits D. Other short term* benefits from lifting lockdown (mental health etc)
Probably, on any normal health economics basis, C easily outweighs A, particularly with additional health benefits from D.
The interesting one is B, particularly if it necessitated a later lockdown before new vaccines were developed. Probably hard to estimate the risk of that. Also will be a smaller risk than mutations happening elsewhere in the large unvaccinated population of the world and getting imported.
So, tends to point towards opening up early, but that could be politically risky if seen to be too early by later events (e.g. another later lockdown). If UK is still one of the first to open up (due to vaccination success) then there may not be that much political capital in opening up early compared to waiting a little/opening more cautiously.
*by short term I mean that we're probably talking about a few months either way. The benefits may of course have long term effects - save big business X, stop knock on effects of mental health in y people.
I think the vaccine rollout is likely to be quicker than the cautious proposals imply, and that they are deliberately taking care not to over-promise.
It would be political suicide to admit it, but I do think that the current state of play does indicate that the government anticipates a controlled spread of the virus accross the country. There was a quote from a SAGE member in the FT the other week suggesting that discussion around a "big wave" of infections was about to happen- ("There will be a massive debate about whether we should allow a big wave of infection once we've vaccinated all the over 50s...Are we going to aim for low prevalence or accept high prevalence for a period?") The roadmap suggests that controlling infection and keeping R below 1 isn't everything anymore - such rates are only a problem if they risk a surge in hospital admissions. No-one is ever, ever, going to come out and say it but it does seem that, to an extent, that the Herd Immunity strategy that Imperial shot down last 16 March may be back in a more controlled way. And given we are over a third of the way to their predicted deaths without NPI's anyway...
If permitted: Downsides include A. Some more deaths and hospitalisations (probably fairly predictable) B. Increased risk of homegrown virus mutations that could evade vaccines (as more virus replication happening across the population, more chance of getting troublesome mutations Benefits include C. Short term* (at least) economic benefits D. Other short term* benefits from lifting lockdown (mental health etc)
Probably, on any normal health economics basis, C easily outweighs A, particularly with additional health benefits from D.
The interesting one is B, particularly if it necessitated a later lockdown before new vaccines were developed. Probably hard to estimate the risk of that. Also will be a smaller risk than mutations happening elsewhere in the large unvaccinated population of the world and getting imported.
So, tends to point towards opening up early, but that could be politically risky if seen to be too early by later events (e.g. another later lockdown). If UK is still one of the first to open up (due to vaccination success) then there may not be that much political capital in opening up early compared to waiting a little/opening more cautiously.
*by short term I mean that we're probably talking about a few months either way. The benefits may of course have long term effects - save big business X, stop knock on effects of mental health in y people.
There was an essay I linked to yesterday by a viral biologist who said it was very unlikely that a new mutation would arise that rendered the current vaccines completely ineffective, even if there was reduced efficacy. He made the point that Coronavirus are actually more stable and less susceptible to mutation than, say, measles.
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Toby Young.
The vaccine "makes you a different person."
Hmm.
How did Toby Young ever get accepted into the University of Oxford?
Bit of 'Dad'll fix it', is what I heard.
Still, I'm sure he would have thrived at Exeter.
To think that, but for the intervention of a nepotistic Labour peer, we might never have heard of Toby Young...
Well there is no-one - no-one - with more impeccable credentials than me for pointing out the damage done to our society by allowing affluent, well-connected parents to nail down superior opportunities for their offspring.
Ah, but this case illustrates to perfection how universal and irrepressible the will to pass down such superior opportunities is. Michael Young wrote the 1945 Labour manifesto and literally coined the term 'meritocracy', but when it came down to his son and his place at Oxford, merit and social justice and egalitarianism could all go hang. He is the prince and avatar of all lefty hypocrites.
Young's book on meritocracy was written as a warning.
Yes, he was afraid that a true meritocracy (i.e. not making every school a bog-standard, unselective comprehensive) would impede socialism. But when it came to his dear Tobes he decided to do away with both of those concepts and rely on hereditary privilege instead
But think how dull our national life would be if Young Mister Toby had only made into Dankbridge Technical college to do golf management.
The aircraft industry seems to be experiencing more problems over the last 5 years than in the previous 40 put together. I wonder why. Well, we know overconfidence in software systems is one of the reasons with regard to the 737 Max.
I was reading a discussion on a pro pilots’ forum the other day, where they were all discussing how out of practice they were! Automation dependency has been a feature in an increasing number of accidents in the past decade, even as the total number of serious accidents has continued its long term falling trend.
The 737 Max issue was a regulatory oversight with certification problem, the FAA were far too close to Boeing and let them get away with a bodge that shouldn’t have been allowed, but allowed Max customers to save on training.
Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
We get one of those nearly every day. Sometimes more than one.
Is it me, or have these things gotten worse recently? Thankfully my parents are well trained and as soon as they suspect anything they slam the phone down!
Definitely higher frequency.
Its my shop phone so still 10:1 real to scam calls ratio. But it used to be 30:1
I always message shops and restaurants on Facebook, Whatsapp, or Twitter these days rather than calling them.
Quite hard to order an expensive book that way, mind....
The Warwick Academic from SPI-M that was interviewed on UnHerd last week was very good on this....Zero COVID is nonsense and that we need to fight for getting back to normal, not a new normal....was much better than his crap firebreak model.
Another anecdote from a work colleague, friend of his ironman triathlete completely floored by the virus and still not right after it.
Elite athletes are generally more susceptible to illnesses not less. I'd imagine its the same for an ironman competitor at any level, that much stress on the body is not good for your immune system even if it makes you very fit.
The very fittest in my running club both got off very lightly, both sub 20 5kers. I wonder if the optimal recipe is to be very fit but not push it too much till you are T+21 days after vaccination... Bit annoying for the 95+% less genetically gifted mind.
There is a difference between a good club runner, running sub 20 for 5K (actually not that quick - my clubs best are sub 18 on a hilly course), but the point stands, and someone who is running 100+ miles a week. Its quite well documented that immune systems can be deleteriously affected by over exercise. The happy medium would probably be exercising 4-5 times a week, and definitely getting in proper rest days.
Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
We get one of those nearly every day. Sometimes more than one.
Is it me, or have these things gotten worse recently? Thankfully my parents are well trained and as soon as they suspect anything they slam the phone down!
If my landline phone goes it is either a scammer, my elderly step-mother (who will then try my mobile: one day I'll get her to do phone that one first) or BT trying to send me a text. I now always let it go to the answerphone.
Back when I used to answer it my best effort was claiming not to own a phone...
I always miss hear them and talk graphically about how wonderful a hot date would be / was with them. Works with both Female and Male callers. Just have to pretend I know what I'm talking about with male callers.
I doubt anyone’s going to be flying one of those old P&W engines any time soon. That looked like a fan blade fatigue failure, which is tested for as part of the certification process.
Would have made one hell of a bang when it happened, although the cowlings departing made it look a lot worse than it was.
The important thing was that the high-energy parts appeared to have been contained within the engine structure.
No - it was an uncontained failure and also damaged the hull.
5 weeks between each step? That is wayyyyy tooo sloowwww
If you want to see what effect each step has then it's the bare minimum. Two weeks plus to start picking up infections reliably, 3-4 weeks to have any idea of effects on hospitalisations (which is the important thing).
If you don't want to see the effects of the steps, then you might as well go big bang end lockdown, or at least much bigger steps (there's an argument for bigger steps and bigger gaps).
This is a very responsible and well balanced pathway towards a better future
It is sensible and balanced but it's not exactly very hopeful or positive. It sounds like there's a big possibility of delays so I cannot get excited about any "summer".
I don't think there's any other option though, really.
Because Germany has completely fucked up the publicity around the Oxford-AZ vaccine, by smearing it as useless, via absurdly fake news stories sourced from embarrassed politicians, they are now having to do an official news campaign to persuade Germans that, no, honestly, it is really safe and effective, after all.
What's the theory then?
That they didn't think the smear campaign would work - and now it has they are trying to undo it?
They didn't think.
They lashed out trying to get the vaccine as they were desperate to get it.
When that failed they were humiliated and lashed out discrediting it so it didn't seem such a big deal they didn't have it.
Once in a hole, stop digging.
You need to be careful on the language front. It's just about ok here, and you're helped by having a point, but it's on the verge of tipping into quite open and visceral europhobia.
Also I can't quite recall - did you purchase the integrity needed for making these charges against the EU by retro condemning Johnson for his lives-costing mishandling of the lives-costing Cummings scandal?
If you did, fine. But I can't remember.
Its not Europhobia, its specific to the politicians concerned. That's Macron, Merkel and a few others especially. They're not all tainted by the same brush.
I've praised Ireland. The Irish response was "the best vaccine is the one available to you today". That was very well put and should have been the response other countries had. Blaming people isn't blaming the institution - this was not an institutional failure it was a personal one by the people who screwed up.
The Cummings "scandal" didn't cost lives. So no, it was much ado about nothing and remotely comparing it with fuelling antivax conspiracies is patent codswallop.
So you didn't reclaim your integrity then and do not wish to do so now. Fair enough. Free country. But this means all your posts attacking the EU on vaccines are fish & chip paper. What a shame. There have been so many too and they weren't all devoid of merit.
Let me know if you change your mind.
On the europhobia, as I say, it's just on the right side of the line atm but it is in the danger zone. I sense "frogs" and "krauts" are not far away. But of course it would be unfair to condemn something before you've done it. I am, though, preparing to condemn. Which is in itself a serious thing.
You made a sarcastic remark about the "upper echelons of Brussels, Berlin and Paris conspiring to smear the Astra Zeneca vaccine", as if such a thing were clearly impossible.
I have shown you direct evidence that the President of France - the very definition of an "upper echelon" - made a frankly desperate, laughably bizarre attempt to smear the Astra Zeneca vaccine.
Oddly, you ignore it.
I do not know if there was any conspiracy. I do know, as we have concrete proof, that at the highest levels in France - Macron - and at very high levels in Germany - the Health Ministry via Handelsblatt - they were trying to smear the AZ vaccine back in January.
I probably wouldn't say "conspiring to smear". I would say "a concerted effort to smear".
And Jeez, now it has royally backfired. Eejits.
I didn't ignore the "Macron remarks" evidence. I specifically noted receipt and posed a question about it. Ad hoc and stupid? Or cunning and calculated? I also have the "German newspaper" submission. Is there more big stuff or is that it? If so, I will retire and deliberate.
BTW, why shy away from "conspiring to smear"? Is this to avoid it being called a Conspiracy Theory?
Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
We get one of those nearly every day. Sometimes more than one.
Is it me, or have these things gotten worse recently? Thankfully my parents are well trained and as soon as they suspect anything they slam the phone down!
Definitely higher frequency.
Its my shop phone so still 10:1 real to scam calls ratio. But it used to be 30:1
I always message shops and restaurants on Facebook, Whatsapp, or Twitter these days rather than calling them.
Quite hard to order an expensive book that way, mind....
Another anecdote from a work colleague, friend of his ironman triathlete completely floored by the virus and still not right after it.
Elite athletes are generally more susceptible to illnesses not less. I'd imagine its the same for an ironman competitor at any level, that much stress on the body is not good for your immune system even if it makes you very fit.
The very fittest in my running club both got off very lightly, both sub 20 5kers. I wonder if the optimal recipe is to be very fit but not push it too much till you are T+21 days after vaccination... Bit annoying for the 95+% less genetically gifted mind.
There is a difference between a good club runner, running sub 20 for 5K (actually not that quick - my clubs best are sub 18 on a hilly course), but the point stands, and someone who is running 100+ miles a week. Its quite well documented that immune systems can be deleteriously affected by over exercise. The happy medium would probably be exercising 4-5 times a week, and definitely getting in proper rest days.
Good to see Boris tell the zero-COVID and lockdown ultras to get lost. Sanity, it seems, has prevailed. Now we just need to be on the lookout for backsliding.
While the 5 weeks between reviews is a long time, as long as they stick to it and we get relaxations in those steps it gives me some idea of when we'll finally be rid of this half life.
No unlocking - well that would just be unthinkable, people would unlock anyway. Too fast and the NHS has a heap of long covid to deal with in future years. Slow and steady unlocking wins the Covid race in my opinion.
The dissent from non-legislative official Clarence Thomas is mildly amusing. Surely decisions about the authority of non-legislative officials at state level is largely a matter for individual states ? Is there any reason at all that the Supreme Court should be setting such constraints in advance ?
Supreme Court won't hear GOP's Pennsylvania election challenge https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/22/supreme-court-gop-pennsylvania-election-dispute-470827 ...That decision to rewrite the rules seems to have affected too few ballots to change the outcome of any federal election. But that may not be the case in the future,” Thomas wrote. “These cases provide us with an ideal opportunity to address just what authority nonlegislative officials have to set election rules, and to do so well before the next election cycle. The refusal to do so is inexplicable.”..
I doubt anyone’s going to be flying one of those old P&W engines any time soon. That looked like a fan blade fatigue failure, which is tested for as part of the certification process.
Would have made one hell of a bang when it happened, although the cowlings departing made it look a lot worse than it was.
The important thing was that the high-energy parts appeared to have been contained within the engine structure.
No - it was an uncontained failure and also damaged the hull.
Hmm, does look like something damaged the root on the way off, so you might well be right there.
Containment structure looks intact though. Blade failure is quite clear.
Good to see Boris tell the zero-COVID and lockdown ultras to get lost. Sanity, it seems, has prevailed. Now we just need to be on the lookout for backsliding.
While the 5 weeks between reviews is a long time, as long as they stick to it and we get relaxations in those steps it gives me some idea of when we'll finally be rid of this half life.
The 5 week gaps seem long but are actually sensible. It sets out a prudent timetable which gives the Government good time to assess the impact of changes, and also is more realistic than setting out a timetable to change say every 3 weeks which would be more likely to be delayed.
People would rather have a longer timetable if there is greater confidence that the timetable will be met.
The aircraft industry seems to be experiencing more problems over the last 5 years than in the previous 40 put together. I wonder why. Well, we know overconfidence in software systems is one of the reasons with regard to the 737 Max.
I was reading a discussion on a pro pilots’ forum the other day, where they were all discussing how out of practice they were! Automation dependency has been a feature in an increasing number of accidents in the past decade, even as the total number of serious accidents has continued its long term falling trend.
The 737 Max issue was a regulatory oversight with certification problem, the FAA were far too close to Boeing and let them get away with a bodge that shouldn’t have been allowed, but allowed Max customers to save on training.
I think I read the same thread. It's quite scary. Pilots are basically expected to just sit there and watch the autopilot most of the time, but be ready at a moment's notice when the autopilot decides that it can no longer handle a difficult situation. They might be professionals, but they're still human, so of course their attention is going to wander, and they're going to struggle when handed control in a time-critical emergency.
(It's much the same problem with the current Tesla autopilot system, only there the drivers aren't professionals and there's even less time to regain situational awareness before crashing.)
This is a very responsible and well balanced pathway towards a better future
It is sensible and balanced but it's not exactly very hopeful or positive. It sounds like there's a big possibility of delays so I cannot get excited about any "summer".
I don't think there's any other option though, really.
The NHS wasn`t overwhelmed - and Covid patients in hospital is roughly at 50% of the peak on 18 January, and is continuing to fall steadily.
Because Germany has completely fucked up the publicity around the Oxford-AZ vaccine, by smearing it as useless, via absurdly fake news stories sourced from embarrassed politicians, they are now having to do an official news campaign to persuade Germans that, no, honestly, it is really safe and effective, after all.
What's the theory then?
That they didn't think the smear campaign would work - and now it has they are trying to undo it?
They didn't think.
They lashed out trying to get the vaccine as they were desperate to get it.
When that failed they were humiliated and lashed out discrediting it so it didn't seem such a big deal they didn't have it.
Once in a hole, stop digging.
You need to be careful on the language front. It's just about ok here, and you're helped by having a point, but it's on the verge of tipping into quite open and visceral europhobia.
Also I can't quite recall - did you purchase the integrity needed for making these charges against the EU by retro condemning Johnson for his lives-costing mishandling of the lives-costing Cummings scandal?
If you did, fine. But I can't remember.
Its not Europhobia, its specific to the politicians concerned. That's Macron, Merkel and a few others especially. They're not all tainted by the same brush.
I've praised Ireland. The Irish response was "the best vaccine is the one available to you today". That was very well put and should have been the response other countries had. Blaming people isn't blaming the institution - this was not an institutional failure it was a personal one by the people who screwed up.
The Cummings "scandal" didn't cost lives. So no, it was much ado about nothing and remotely comparing it with fuelling antivax conspiracies is patent codswallop.
So you didn't reclaim your integrity then and do not wish to do so now. Fair enough. Free country. But this means all your posts attacking the EU on vaccines are fish & chip paper. What a shame. There have been so many too and they weren't all devoid of merit.
Let me know if you change your mind.
On the europhobia, as I say, it's just on the right side of the line atm but it is in the danger zone. I sense "frogs" and "krauts" are not far away. But of course it would be unfair to condemn something before you've done it. I am, though, preparing to condemn. Which is in itself a serious thing.
You made a sarcastic remark about the "upper echelons of Brussels, Berlin and Paris conspiring to smear the Astra Zeneca vaccine", as if such a thing were clearly impossible.
I have shown you direct evidence that the President of France - the very definition of an "upper echelon" - made a frankly desperate, laughably bizarre attempt to smear the Astra Zeneca vaccine.
Oddly, you ignore it.
I do not know if there was any conspiracy. I do know, as we have concrete proof, that at the highest levels in France - Macron - and at very high levels in Germany - the Health Ministry via Handelsblatt - they were trying to smear the AZ vaccine back in January.
I probably wouldn't say "conspiring to smear". I would say "a concerted effort to smear".
And Jeez, now it has royally backfired. Eejits.
I didn't ignore the "Macron remarks" evidence. I specifically noted receipt and posed a question about it. Ad hoc and stupid? Or cunning and calculated? I also have the "German newspaper" submission. Is there more big stuff or is that it? If so, I will retire and deliberate.
BTW, why shy away from "conspiring to smear"? Is this to avoid it being called a Conspiracy Theory?
Well, yes.
Anyway, you want more evidence? How about the French European Affairs Minister
"Clément Beaune, the French European minister, even called AstraZeneca useless. "
No mention of higher education. I assume that's going to be remote for the whole year now. To be honest I'm not that bothered but it would be nice to get a small tuition fee rebate.
No mention of higher education. I assume that's going to be remote for the whole year now. To be honest I'm not that bothered but it would be nice to get a small tuition fee rebate.
Just managed to keep one of the 'BT Technican' scammers busy on my line for 7 minutes without giving him any information, simply by playing dumb and for time. A sort of public service I guess!
We get one of those nearly every day. Sometimes more than one.
Is it me, or have these things gotten worse recently? Thankfully my parents are well trained and as soon as they suspect anything they slam the phone down!
Definitely higher frequency.
Its my shop phone so still 10:1 real to scam calls ratio. But it used to be 30:1
I always message shops and restaurants on Facebook, Whatsapp, or Twitter these days rather than calling them.
Quite hard to order an expensive book that way, mind....
Why?
The conversation tends to go something like this:
Customer: Hi Mortimer, I am interested in buying one of your books please? Mortimer: Of course, which were you after? Customer: Book No.12346 Mortimer: Let me just get that off the shelf. Customer: Can I just check that the dustwrapper isn't priceclipped, and that there are no inscriptions in the book. I want to give it as a christening present? Mortimer: That's right, its a lovely copy. Customer: Ok, can you please send it to me at.... Mortimer: Of course; how would you like to pay? Card? Bank transfer? Customer: Card please Mortimer: That is £3250, please. Customer: Might you give me a small discount? Mortimer: Yes, I can do it for £3000.
No mention of higher education. I assume that's going to be remote for the whole year now. To be honest I'm not that bothered but it would be nice to get a small tuition fee rebate.
I thought he said to return 8 May same as schools?
No mention of higher education. I assume that's going to be remote for the whole year now. To be honest I'm not that bothered but it would be nice to get a small tuition fee rebate.
This is a very responsible and well balanced pathway towards a better future
It is sensible and balanced but it's not exactly very hopeful or positive. It sounds like there's a big possibility of delays so I cannot get excited about any "summer".
I don't think there's any other option though, really.
The NHS wasn`t overwhelmed - and Covid patients in hospital is roughly at 50% of the peak on 18 January, and is continuing to fall steadily.
This is too slow. Slower than I was expecting.
It is very slow, to my mind, but at least it offers a frame for optimism, however distant.
One question not asked, or answered, is: what if the data gets dramatically and unexpectedly better? This is possible, as we vaccinate (hopefully faster than today).
Hospitalisations may fall away entirely by April. Waiting til June, to open up fully, in that situation, seems daft and pointless. Is HMG gonna stick to this framework whatever?
Comments
- Rapid Vaccine development (achieved)
- Reliable and successful treatments (still working on it)
- Rapid and reliable ubiquitous testing (may be rolled out soon in order to accelerate unlocking anyway)
Currently and for the past year I've respected the law but try this nonsense and that is over. No chance. Which is why it won't be tried.
Good luck getting teenagers to respect the Police telling them Lockdown is over but they can't party! 😂
He got quite angry....
Hancock, the health secretary, said that Oliver Dowden, the digital, culture, media and sport secretary, was looking “very closely” at how the UK could make Facebook compensate media outlets for content on its sites."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/facebook-should-have-to-pay-publishers-suggests-matt-hancock-p55xtlzhb
Back when I used to answer it my best effort was claiming not to own a phone...
This just goes to show. All the restrictions, all the CMO-dictated measures are absolutely fine and anyone who voices any, er, contrary voices is ridiculed. Until peoples' own red line is crossed. Then it's an outrage.
I have shown you direct evidence that the President of France - the very definition of an "upper echelon" - made a frankly desperate, laughably bizarre attempt to smear the Astra Zeneca vaccine.
Oddly, you ignore it.
I do not know if there was any conspiracy. I do know, as we have concrete proof, that at the highest levels in France - Macron - and at very high levels in Germany - the Health Ministry via Handelsblatt - they were trying to smear the AZ vaccine back in January.
I probably wouldn't say "conspiring to smear". I would say "a concerted effort to smear".
And Jeez, now it has royally backfired. Eejits.
Its my shop phone so still 10:1 real to scam calls ratio. But it used to be 30:1
If permitted:
Downsides include
A. Some more deaths and hospitalisations (probably fairly predictable)
B. Increased risk of homegrown virus mutations that could evade vaccines (as more virus replication happening across the population, more chance of getting troublesome mutations
Benefits include
C. Short term* (at least) economic benefits
D. Other short term* benefits from lifting lockdown (mental health etc)
Probably, on any normal health economics basis, C easily outweighs A, particularly with additional health benefits from D.
The interesting one is B, particularly if it necessitated a later lockdown before new vaccines were developed. Probably hard to estimate the risk of that. Also will be a smaller risk than mutations happening elsewhere in the large unvaccinated population of the world and getting imported.
So, tends to point towards opening up early, but that could be politically risky if seen to be too early by later events (e.g. another later lockdown). If UK is still one of the first to open up (due to vaccination success) then there may not be that much political capital in opening up early compared to waiting a little/opening more cautiously.
*by short term I mean that we're probably talking about a few months either way. The benefits may of course have long term effects - save big business X, stop knock on effects of mental health in y people.
I have a drip watering system that feeds off a pair of water butts with about 2ft of head pressure. I have a Klaber system. I leave it on for several hours at a time.
The water butts are the big ones from Wickes.
Alternatively you can get an underground tank (use a bottle profile sceptic tank) and a pump.
Lots of threads over at Buildhub. eg https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/topic/14350-outdoor-tapstandpipe/
https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1363873981997211648?s=20
Would have made one hell of a bang when it happened, although the cowlings departing made it look a lot worse than it was.
The important thing was that the high-energy parts appeared to have been contained within the engine structure.
You have to act dumb to start with, then slowly build the absurdity of your story: for true entertainment value
eg the insurance scammer. You were in a car accident and we can help you claim blah blah
Start off all nervy and hesitant. Then slowly admit Yes, you were in an accident. Recently. Quite bad. You got injured. Yes. Hospital yes. You lost a lot of blood. Yes. It was scary. Yes. Well, you were doing 110 mph. Drunk. On Oxford Street. And you lost an eye. Two legs. Penis. You ran over 49 boy scouts. Killed hundreds. How much can I claim?
Really drag it out and you can get a mildly diverting 20 minutes and you've made their stupid day a bit worse.
It also feels like Spring today on Tyneside
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9287141/Moment-police-confront-disgruntled-guests-Heathrow-quarantine-hotel.html
The 737 Max issue was a regulatory oversight with certification problem, the FAA were far too close to Boeing and let them get away with a bodge that shouldn’t have been allowed, but allowed Max customers to save on training.
Hurrah. Good sense has prevailed at the top.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3TV1OZgWmM
https://twitter.com/PaulOnPolitics/status/1363876469777330179
Well done!
If you don't want to see the effects of the steps, then you might as well go big bang end lockdown, or at least much bigger steps (there's an argument for bigger steps and bigger gaps).
Maybe it's part of BoJo's plan to morph from frivolous youngster to respected statesman.
Better late than never, I suppose.
I don't think there's any other option though, really.
BTW, why shy away from "conspiring to smear"? Is this to avoid it being called a Conspiracy Theory?
While the 5 weeks between reviews is a long time, as long as they stick to it and we get relaxations in those steps it gives me some idea of when we'll finally be rid of this half life.
Slow and steady unlocking wins the Covid race in my opinion.
Surely decisions about the authority of non-legislative officials at state level is largely a matter for individual states ?
Is there any reason at all that the Supreme Court should be setting such constraints in advance ?
Supreme Court won't hear GOP's Pennsylvania election challenge
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/22/supreme-court-gop-pennsylvania-election-dispute-470827
...That decision to rewrite the rules seems to have affected too few ballots to change the outcome of any federal election. But that may not be the case in the future,” Thomas wrote. “These cases provide us with an ideal opportunity to address just what authority nonlegislative officials have to set election rules, and to do so well before the next election cycle. The refusal to do so is inexplicable.”..
Containment structure looks intact though. Blade failure is quite clear.
ETOPS pulled in 3,2,1...
People would rather have a longer timetable if there is greater confidence that the timetable will be met.
(It's much the same problem with the current Tesla autopilot system, only there the drivers aren't professionals and there's even less time to regain situational awareness before crashing.)
This is too slow. Slower than I was expecting.
Anyway, you want more evidence? How about the French European Affairs Minister
"Clément Beaune, the French European minister, even called AstraZeneca useless. "
https://www.eurointelligence.com/column/vaccine-elitism
Now you can retire and deliberate
Doesn't that imply unis as well?
Genuine dunno
Customer: Hi Mortimer, I am interested in buying one of your books please?
Mortimer: Of course, which were you after?
Customer: Book No.12346
Mortimer: Let me just get that off the shelf.
Customer: Can I just check that the dustwrapper isn't priceclipped, and that there are no inscriptions in the book. I want to give it as a christening present?
Mortimer: That's right, its a lovely copy.
Customer: Ok, can you please send it to me at....
Mortimer: Of course; how would you like to pay? Card? Bank transfer?
Customer: Card please
Mortimer: That is £3250, please.
Customer: Might you give me a small discount?
Mortimer: Yes, I can do it for £3000.
etc
etc
This suggests only "practical" courses which as far as I'm aware are still face-to-face in any case.
Might the 21 June date for no restrictions at sports events be brought forward by 10 days?
One question not asked, or answered, is: what if the data gets dramatically and unexpectedly better? This is possible, as we vaccinate (hopefully faster than today).
Hospitalisations may fall away entirely by April. Waiting til June, to open up fully, in that situation, seems daft and pointless. Is HMG gonna stick to this framework whatever?