Is there any particular reason this is regarded as such a bad idea? I mean we have a tunnel from England to France...
I think it's a super idea myself, though this is the first time I've seen the Manx Interchange plan. Seems a bit of a weird one, as you have to go well out of your way to get from Scotland to NI and vice versa (though I assume it must still be quicker than the ferry).
The water between NI and Scotland is full of munitions. This route doesn't seem to be.
Though I'm curious why Stanraer for Scotland. I'd have thought a more Eastern point in Scotland would have made more sense given the IOM middle point - but I'm not too au fait with Scottish geography or if there's a good reason for it to be Stanraer.
Looking at a map of Scotland I'd have thought somewhere like Kirkcudbright on the way to Dumfries and still on the A75 would make more sense?
There are muntions to the NW of the IoM. Luce Bay on the "Stranraer Route" was a military practice range for years. The routes going east to England go through the oil and gas fields...
I did remind Philip of Johnson's record with water crossings yesterday. He countered by explaining that the £63m invisible Garden Bridge over the Thames was an excellent idea scuppered by a reckless Khan.
So Beverly you should be looking to blame the future administration that inevitably pulls the plug on this demonstration of Johnson's foresight and ambition.
I never said it was an excellent idea, I simply said it was cancelled by Khan.
Many new administrations cancel their predecessors projects that haven't begun yet - doesn't mean the predecessors projects were a bad idea.
If you want to argue it was bad do so on its own merits, the fact its "invisible" isn't one, since it wasn't him who made it that.
If Johnson is in charge as I hope and expect until 2027/2028 then if these tunnels are approved then the tunnelling should be well underway by then. If the tunnelling isn't underway yet then so be it if its cancelled.
Governments have been talking about new runways for Heathrow for over fifty years haven't they? Its not just Johnson that has form in this arena.
Best keep Johnson off Heathrow expansion too.
Wasn't he prepared to die on the runway to reject the plan? Needless to say he took the relatively safer option of a visit to Afghanistan on the day of the vote.
P.S. Tunnelling should be well underway by 2027/28? LOL
Why LOL?
Tunnelling for the Chunnel was underway 3 years after the decision was made to proceed. Creating the plans took place in those 3 years too.
If its not going to happen its not going to happen, so be it. But if it is then tunnelling could begin by 2027/28.
Imagine complaining incessantly about covid and lockdown and then turning down the one thing that can make them go away. Christ...
I'm not sure we know their views on covid and lockdown. They could be worried about side effects or something.
My comment was intended to be general. Although I imagine @contrarian would also refuse the vaccine if offered. Happy for him to correct me though.
OK, it seemed as though you were referring to contrarian's family members, who (as far as I know) don't post here, so we don't know what their views are.
They don;'t but I am probably the moderate in all this.
Lets just say Bill Gates is not on wifey's christmas card list.
He probably should be.
The amount he's invested into vaccine deployment etc around the third world probably means he's done more than anyone else in preventing the need for future lockdowns.
That's what really puzzles me about people like you. Anyone genuinely opposed to lockdowns should be most in favour of vaccines.
I am not against vaccines. I think they are great for the vulnerable and anyone who wants them. What I am opposed to is compulsion, and the turning of those who don;t want vaccinations into second class citizens.
Imagine complaining incessantly about covid and lockdown and then turning down the one thing that can make them go away. Christ...
I'm not sure we know their views on covid and lockdown. They could be worried about side effects or something.
My comment was intended to be general. Although I imagine @contrarian would also refuse the vaccine if offered. Happy for him to correct me though.
OK, it seemed as though you were referring to contrarian's family members, who (as far as I know) don't post here, so we don't know what their views are.
They don;'t but I am probably the moderate in all this.
Lets just say Bill Gates is not on wifey's christmas card list.
He probably should be.
The amount he's invested into vaccine deployment etc around the third world probably means he's done more than anyone else in preventing the need for future lockdowns.
That's what really puzzles me about people like you. Anyone genuinely opposed to lockdowns should be most in favour of vaccines.
Something something hidden magic microchips?
Other than mRNA vaccines, the other big technology win out of this pandemic will be the big strides in undetectable but trackable low power chip technology
I retrofitted my house with a Faraday cage. Checkmate, Gates.
The wording is interesting - "down the age scale". So could be a suggestion of 30% of $lowerriskagegroup refuse. The polling suggests 30% overall is unlikely.
Sorry but once everyone is vaccinated this is over.
Yes ~10% of those vaccinated may die, that's sad, but everyone dies eventually. We'll have done our best to protect them.
As for the refuseniks? Fuck them. If they die, they die. Their fault.
We don't have lockdowns to prevent smokers from getting cancer. Anyone who can't be arsed to get vaccinated and catches it once the vaccine is freely available is their own damned fool fault.
Paragraph 2 demonstrates the beating heart of a caring Conservative Party. Thankyou for your kindness Philip.
Ten French players now tested positive. The Six Nations game isn't going to happen, is it?
I can't believe that Wales let their players return to their clubs and play the past weekend. That is #1 rule of COVID, you maintain a bio-secure bubble. Its why the cricket has worked. If you want to leave and see family, you have to come back and start the process again.
Perhaps the roundabout under the Isle of Man would be a perfect location for the customs and standards checkpoints required to move stuff through these tunnels. The IoM government could make a killing in offering to run them as an impartial 3rd party. And have big duty free stores as well.
Also no speed limit so it would be a great drift spot. *welds up diff*
I once attempted to drift a Morris Marina estate on a motorway exit cloverleaf. Can't recommend it, as I ended up sideswiping a lamppost on the verge.
(Statute of limitations long since expired.)
Good effort. Even the 1.8 O series motor wouldn't pull the cock off a chocolare mouse.
It was the 1.8 version. Got it nicely sideways, but probably about 20mph too fast entering the manoeuvre. Bit of a miracle I didn't roll it (or just a well placed lamppost).
Because that data is historical, relatively meaningless and notoriously inaccurate.
The UK is actually counting deaths and testing for them properly. Most other countries are underreporting, some quite dramatically.
So why would you be posting that? Its the vaccines that matter. They're the route out, they're the "endgame", they're the way to prevent future deaths.
Excess deaths is also a shitshow though
Counting those wrong like March 8th is 3 weeks after mid April
Excess deaths is wrong? How?
That literally shows who is alive and who is dead. It shows fewer excess deaths than total deaths in the UK which makes sense, while almost every other nation is the other way around. So your "per million" chart is meaningless garbage and you know it.
What matters, the only thing that matters really now, is vaccinations.
Deaths don't matter
At least you are honest
On a long enough time line I'm afraid to inform you that the mortality rate for all humans is 100%.
Context gets lost in this debate. Covid is not the be all and end all.
Over 600k Brits die every single year normally.
The overwhelming majority of Care Home residents die within 12 months of entering the Care Home.
There will be more Care Home residents that have died of natural causes having lost all contact with their families in the final months of their life than there will be who have died from Covid.
There will be over half a million elderly people who've died of natural causes (and millions more who do not have much longer naturally left) who've essentially lost a very valuable year of life.
There's tragedies all around us in this mess and the idea that its possible to halt death is preposterous nonsense. The only thing that's possible to do is halt the pandemic - and that's vaccines. Vaccines matter more than everything else combined.
Any chance you might stop saying "and that's vaccines"?
QTWAIN.
Not until people like @bigjohnowls stop downplaying vaccines and try to big up other metrics instead.
Oh, I see. It's a retaliation play, is it? Well I think he has stopped now, so let's have an end to it.
I still haven't found what I'm looking for btw. In the archive. The work goes on.
What are you looking for? Some smoking gun of me praising May and saying how great she was between Tory Conference 2015 and 2017? Not going to happen.
Though certainly she was a million miles better than Corbyn.
Imagine complaining incessantly about covid and lockdown and then turning down the one thing that can make them go away. Christ...
I'm not sure we know their views on covid and lockdown. They could be worried about side effects or something.
My comment was intended to be general. Although I imagine @contrarian would also refuse the vaccine if offered. Happy for him to correct me though.
OK, it seemed as though you were referring to contrarian's family members, who (as far as I know) don't post here, so we don't know what their views are.
They don;'t but I am probably the moderate in all this.
Lets just say Bill Gates is not on wifey's christmas card list.
He probably should be.
The amount he's invested into vaccine deployment etc around the third world probably means he's done more than anyone else in preventing the need for future lockdowns.
That's what really puzzles me about people like you. Anyone genuinely opposed to lockdowns should be most in favour of vaccines.
I am not against vaccines. I think they are great for the vulnerable and anyone who wants them. What I am opposed to is compulsion, and the turning of those who don;t want vaccinations into second class citizens.
Compulsion is there because you need enough people to have immunity for them to be effective. Smallpox is a great example of this.
Sorry but once everyone is vaccinated this is over.
Yes ~10% of those vaccinated may die, that's sad, but everyone dies eventually. We'll have done our best to protect them.
As for the refuseniks? Fuck them. If they die, they die. Their fault.
We don't have lockdowns to prevent smokers from getting cancer. Anyone who can't be arsed to get vaccinated and catches it once the vaccine is freely available is their own damned fool fault.
No, it's not 10%, it reduces the death rate by ~90%, so currently the IFR is about 0.5-1%, the effect of one vaccine dose brings the IFR down to 0.05-0.1%. With two doses we should be at something like 99% reduction in hospitalisation and death mirroring the trials so the IFR will be 0.005-0.01%. For a million unvaccinated people who get infected around 5-10k will die, for single dose vaccinated around 500-1000 people will die and for fully vaccinated people around 50-100 people will die and with the two other figures the numbers will be heavily skewed towards 80+ year olds, even more so than now.
In any case, if Newton-Dunn is right about the Public Health England report, the 90% protection against illness is superb news and will be a rabbit from a hat tonight.
It would be in line with the Scottish report that was released this morning.
Sorry but once everyone is vaccinated this is over.
Yes ~10% of those vaccinated may die, that's sad, but everyone dies eventually. We'll have done our best to protect them.
As for the refuseniks? Fuck them. If they die, they die. Their fault.
We don't have lockdowns to prevent smokers from getting cancer. Anyone who can't be arsed to get vaccinated and catches it once the vaccine is freely available is their own damned fool fault.
No, it's not 10%, it reduces the death rate by ~90%, so currently the IFR is about 0.5-1%, the effect of one vaccine dose brings the IFR down to 0.05-0.1%. With two doses we should be at something like 99% reduction in hospitalisation and death mirroring the trials so the IFR will be 0.005-0.01%. For a million unvaccinated people who get infected around 5-10k will die, for single dose vaccinated around 500-1000 people will die and for fully vaccinated people around 50-100 people will die and with the two other figures the numbers will be heavily skewed towards 80+ year olds, even more so than now.
Sorry yes I completely misphrased that, you were right to pick it up!
Rog will be along to tell us it is all Paul Staines or Sun's fault, or something.
The vaccine procurement and smear stories, it is even bigger balls up than opening up for summer holidays or failure of many EU countries to properly lockdown for 2nd wave, believing they had this COVID lark cracked after doing ok in the first wave.
No, everyone knows Oxford's a complete dump.
You have mentioned this viewpoint in the past. You also mentioned in the Autumn that you were concerned average Joe Brit would turn down Pfizer for the "English One". Something a bit like that has happened...
My father has vaccinated a few hundred people in the last week, people are very interested the vaccine they are getting but mostly curious to when they are getting their second jab.
But those who have raised objections are the ones who have heard bad things about the AZN one thanks to Macron and the Germans.
WhatsApp, Facebook, and Twitter are a menace during a pandemic.
Good on your father for volunteering to help out.
By the way, there’s three superfluous words at the very end of your post.
Ha - beat me to it!
I had never really investigated Twitter much before the pandemic. Almost any serious subject is too complex for a 140 character(?) summation. But it turns out there are some interesting people with some interesting fact-based information on there. And also thousands and thousands of utter nutters, which the Twitter AI seems anxious to hook you up with. Wondering whether we should impose a lockdown sooner? Here, meet all these people who genuinely think the government are murderers! Think lockdown might not be the best tool for the job? Here, meet lots of people who don't believe covid is real? And that is just one split - on any given subject you are only two clicks away from the most single-mindedly furious, insane and deranged views at both extremes of the spectrum. Not to mention the constant background hubbub of culture wars which no-one asked for. All this while we are denied the moderating influence of real world interactions with real people who haven't been selected by AI. It's no wonder the world has gone a bit odd.
The 2 biggest screwups of this pandemic by our government are moving people into care homes and allowing unrestricted international travel for most of the last 14 months. Both undoubtedly caused thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of unnecessary deaths.
On the first I would say this. This decision was made at the time that we were seeking to set up the Nightingale hospitals, where the media were full of pictures of the disaster in northern Italy and the many, many unnecessary deaths suffered there because their health system was overwhelmed. The expectation of the government at the time was that the NHS would be similarly overwhelmed in early course. I think SAGE and other advisors from the NHS were seriously close to panic, and rightly so.
In that environment some pretty tough decisions were made. A lot of hospital beds were filled with what we have traditionally called bed blockers, people who didn't really need to be in hospital but were because our care system is crap and a suitable plan had not been put together. I suspect instructions were given to move these people out whether they had a full care plan or not so that the beds were available for those for whom they might do more good. So they were punted to care homes with minimal plans and, critically, no checks as to whether they had themselves been infected.
As it turns out the Nightingale hospitals were barely used, although the NHS was stretched severely it did not fall over and things did not turn out as bad as had entirely reasonably been feared. That makes the decision to move people out to care homes where inadequately trained and provisioned staff failed to prevent the spread of the disease amongst many of our most vulnerable look very wrong. And it was wrong, but only in hindsight.
I am not saying this is right, I simply say that there is a plausible explanation for what happened and that explanation is consistent with the same thing happening in England, Scotland, Wales and NI, apparently independently. I think it is possible that this decision might be justifiable at the time it was made.
Our policies on air travel throughout the pandemic, however, I simply find beyond rational explanation.
Good post. Not to say that it would have changed things - perhaps it wouldn't have - but its attempt to "keep the UK open", and thereby continue with international air travel, might have been a (large?) factor in the government going all in and early on the vaccines.
Hmm, from reading what's available the original vaccine drive started in around February with a group of UK biotech companies getting together independently to support the development of the Oxford vaccine. I'm not sure how much of a factor air travel was. I think the government has always seen vaccines as the endgame state so would have done it regardless.
What's interesting is that the UK suffers from almost no vaccine hesitancy and that is in part due to the horrific death rates over the last year and the government linking unlockdown to vaccination. In a perverse way the high death toll may end up meaning a much faster and higher take up of vaccines by the general public. In SK there is much higher vaccine hesitancy, a lot of that is surely because they've not had the alternative of people dying in their thousands and hospitals being overwhelmed leading to indefinite lockdowns.
I think there might be some truth in that. I'm certainly surprised by the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy in most of the Germans I know around here in Cologne.
But also look at the past record of vaccination - the UK normally vaccinates more than twice as many over 65s against flu as Germany does. And contributed far more to GAVI than other European countries already 10 years ago, so there's a whole bunch of factors probably.
While the EU vaccine procurement scheme has been crap, it doesn't seem to have been significantly worse than other continental western European countries (ie Switzerland and Norway). And not everything is seen through the lens of Brexit on the continent (I think it's probably true to say that nothing is except Brexit itself, which has barely made the news at all for about 3 years and was over a long time ago so far as most people are concerned), unlike on PB.com. In my entirely anecdotal experience, people are more likely to compare the slow vaccine rollout in Germany with the speed of Israel than with the UK.
Which is an odd one because Germany's second wave has been pretty horrific and I thought the lockdown had just been extended as well. One would hope that people see vaccines as the way out of this, lockdowns aren't an end state. I have to say the German media has had a really poor time of it on the AZ vaccine, it could lead to a prolonged lockdown because people are stupidly not taking it despite it being a really great vaccine. I really, really hope that the UK data coming out over the next few days will convince people to just get it done.
Yes, I can't think of any justification for using "anonymous sources" for claims that a vaccine doesn't work, those 2 newspapers should come clean and say who was spreading such rubbish, or apologise. The German vaccine agency hasn't helped by recommending AZ vaccine only for under 65s - maybe that will change now that more data is available.
The lockdown has just been relaxed, in the sense that in most states schools reopened today, with small groups, no mixing, and masks on all the time. And the second wave has been worse than the first, but still not as bad as many other places, and hospitals have never been close to being overwhelmed - Germany is still treating small numbers of patients from neighbours (as well as sending some equipment and doctors to Portugal).
But, yes lots of "hesitant" people are looking at what happens in Israel and the UK before being keen to take a vaccine. I know a few proper anti-vaxxers too - I don't think they will ever be convinced, on certain topics they are impervious to any contact with reality, though otherwise lovely people - but they are much smaller numbers.
Shout out to the 'no one wants this to go on forever crew'
They might not explicitly will the end, but they certainly will the means.
Not sure this tweet is helpful, people will see it and ask themselves why bother ? Vaccination IS the way out of this, hopefully we've got enough takers in the UK to produce herd immunity.
Ten French players now tested positive. The Six Nations game isn't going to happen, is it?
I can't believe that Wales let their players return to their clubs and play the past weekend. That is #1 rule of COVID, you maintain a bio-secure bubble. Its why the cricket has worked. If you want to leave and see family, you have to come back and start the process again.
Could it be that the WRU are run by a committee of fools?
Sorry but once everyone is vaccinated this is over.
Yes ~10% of those vaccinated may die, that's sad, but everyone dies eventually. We'll have done our best to protect them.
As for the refuseniks? Fuck them. If they die, they die. Their fault.
We don't have lockdowns to prevent smokers from getting cancer. Anyone who can't be arsed to get vaccinated and catches it once the vaccine is freely available is their own damned fool fault.
Paragraph 2 demonstrates the beating heart of a caring Conservative Party. Thankyou for your kindness Philip.
What do you propose after vaccinations are completed then?
Sorry but once everyone is vaccinated this is over.
Yes ~10% of those vaccinated may die, that's sad, but everyone dies eventually. We'll have done our best to protect them.
As for the refuseniks? Fuck them. If they die, they die. Their fault.
We don't have lockdowns to prevent smokers from getting cancer. Anyone who can't be arsed to get vaccinated and catches it once the vaccine is freely available is their own damned fool fault.
Paragraph 2 demonstrates the beating heart of a caring Conservative Party. Thankyou for your kindness Philip.
What do you want or expect?
Do you expect nobody to ever die ever again?
I hate to break it to you but everybody dies eventually.
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Any opponent of lockdown would be very silly to get caught up with anti vaxxers. The two are very different issues with very different arguments. Apart from the anti-vaxxers. Who have no arguments.
Different but quite an overlap on participants. Speaking of lockdown skeptics, what's your view on Nige's decision to go big into the anti-Chinese space? To me, it looks like a rare misstep from the arch populist. His USP is he has both golf club and dog track appeal and I reckon this just plays to the first. Will the Red Wallies be in a spin about the Chinese muscling in on Eton? I wouldn't have thought so.
In any case, if Newton-Dunn is right about the Public Health England report, the 90% protection against illness is superb news and will be a rabbit from a hat tonight.
It would be in line with the Scottish report that was released this morning.
Very interesting!
Macron will be crying into his cornflakes tomorrow.
The wording is interesting - "down the age scale". So could be a suggestion of 30% of $lowerriskagegroup refuse. The polling suggests 30% overall is unlikely.
Yes, that makes much more sense. Thanks.
Of course, younger, fitter people do have some protection against covid: simple biology! If you are young and healthy, it's unlikely to do you much harm.
The 2 biggest screwups of this pandemic by our government are moving people into care homes and allowing unrestricted international travel for most of the last 14 months. Both undoubtedly caused thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of unnecessary deaths.
On the first I would say this. This decision was made at the time that we were seeking to set up the Nightingale hospitals, where the media were full of pictures of the disaster in northern Italy and the many, many unnecessary deaths suffered there because their health system was overwhelmed. The expectation of the government at the time was that the NHS would be similarly overwhelmed in early course. I think SAGE and other advisors from the NHS were seriously close to panic, and rightly so.
In that environment some pretty tough decisions were made. A lot of hospital beds were filled with what we have traditionally called bed blockers, people who didn't really need to be in hospital but were because our care system is crap and a suitable plan had not been put together. I suspect instructions were given to move these people out whether they had a full care plan or not so that the beds were available for those for whom they might do more good. So they were punted to care homes with minimal plans and, critically, no checks as to whether they had themselves been infected.
As it turns out the Nightingale hospitals were barely used, although the NHS was stretched severely it did not fall over and things did not turn out as bad as had entirely reasonably been feared. That makes the decision to move people out to care homes where inadequately trained and provisioned staff failed to prevent the spread of the disease amongst many of our most vulnerable look very wrong. And it was wrong, but only in hindsight.
I am not saying this is right, I simply say that there is a plausible explanation for what happened and that explanation is consistent with the same thing happening in England, Scotland, Wales and NI, apparently independently. I think it is possible that this decision might be justifiable at the time it was made.
Our policies on air travel throughout the pandemic, however, I simply find beyond rational explanation.
Good post. Not to say that it would have changed things - perhaps it wouldn't have - but its attempt to "keep the UK open", and thereby continue with international air travel, might have been a (large?) factor in the government going all in and early on the vaccines.
Hmm, from reading what's available the original vaccine drive started in around February with a group of UK biotech companies getting together independently to support the development of the Oxford vaccine. I'm not sure how much of a factor air travel was. I think the government has always seen vaccines as the endgame state so would have done it regardless.
What's interesting is that the UK suffers from almost no vaccine hesitancy and that is in part due to the horrific death rates over the last year and the government linking unlockdown to vaccination. In a perverse way the high death toll may end up meaning a much faster and higher take up of vaccines by the general public. In SK there is much higher vaccine hesitancy, a lot of that is surely because they've not had the alternative of people dying in their thousands and hospitals being overwhelmed leading to indefinite lockdowns.
I think there might be some truth in that. I'm certainly surprised by the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy in most of the Germans I know around here in Cologne.
But also look at the past record of vaccination - the UK normally vaccinates more than twice as many over 65s against flu as Germany does. And contributed far more to GAVI than other European countries already 10 years ago, so there's a whole bunch of factors probably.
While the EU vaccine procurement scheme has been crap, it doesn't seem to have been significantly worse than other continental western European countries (ie Switzerland and Norway). And not everything is seen through the lens of Brexit on the continent (I think it's probably true to say that nothing is except Brexit itself, which has barely made the news at all for about 3 years and was over a long time ago so far as most people are concerned), unlike on PB.com. In my entirely anecdotal experience, people are more likely to compare the slow vaccine rollout in Germany with the speed of Israel than with the UK.
Which is an odd one because Germany's second wave has been pretty horrific and I thought the lockdown had just been extended as well. One would hope that people see vaccines as the way out of this, lockdowns aren't an end state. I have to say the German media has had a really poor time of it on the AZ vaccine, it could lead to a prolonged lockdown because people are stupidly not taking it despite it being a really great vaccine. I really, really hope that the UK data coming out over the next few days will convince people to just get it done.
Yes, I can't think of any justification for using "anonymous sources" for claims that a vaccine doesn't work, those 2 newspapers should come clean and say who was spreading such rubbish, or apologise. The German vaccine agency hasn't helped by recommending AZ vaccine only for under 65s - maybe that will change now that more data is available.
The lockdown has just been relaxed, in the sense that in most states schools reopened today, with small groups, no mixing, and masks on all the time. And the second wave has been worse than the first, but still not as bad as many other places, and hospitals have never been close to being overwhelmed - Germany is still treating small numbers of patients from neighbours (as well as sending some equipment and doctors to Portugal).
But, yes lots of "hesitant" people are looking at what happens in Israel and the UK before being keen to take a vaccine. I know a few proper anti-vaxxers too - I don't think they will ever be convinced, on certain topics they are impervious to any contact with reality, though otherwise lovely people - but they are much smaller numbers.
I have no idea if this is true, but I read that the nonsense Handelsblatt report came from a source in the German Health Ministry, and possibly the Health Minister himself: which would explain why journalists were willing to take it at face value.
Surely such a senior politician would not lie about such an important point? Well, yes, he might, if he and his government were really embarrassed by the slow-roll out of the EU vaccine programme in Germany, and they wanted to divert attention.
Tut, tut, tut
In the UK those journos would have been fired a few days later.
The wording is interesting - "down the age scale". So could be a suggestion of 30% of $lowerriskagegroup refuse. The polling suggests 30% overall is unlikely.
Yes, that makes much more sense. Thanks.
Of course, younger, fitter people do have some protection against covid: simple biology! If you are young and healthy, it's unlikely to do you much harm.
There's probably a fair amount of immunity in younger cohorts too.
The wording is interesting - "down the age scale". So could be a suggestion of 30% of $lowerriskagegroup refuse. The polling suggests 30% overall is unlikely.
Yes, that makes much more sense. Thanks.
Of course, younger, fitter people do have some protection against covid: simple biology! If you are young and healthy, it's unlikely to do you much harm.
It is an attractive proposition, to just let it spread freely because most won't have serious symptoms. Trouble is that gives it a huge opportunity to mutate, perhaps into something that the vaccines can avoid. Best as many people are vaccinated as possible.
Sorry but once everyone is vaccinated this is over.
Yes ~10% of those vaccinated may die, that's sad, but everyone dies eventually. We'll have done our best to protect them.
As for the refuseniks? Fuck them. If they die, they die. Their fault.
We don't have lockdowns to prevent smokers from getting cancer. Anyone who can't be arsed to get vaccinated and catches it once the vaccine is freely available is their own damned fool fault.
No, it's not 10%, it reduces the death rate by ~90%, so currently the IFR is about 0.5-1%, the effect of one vaccine dose brings the IFR down to 0.05-0.1%. With two doses we should be at something like 99% reduction in hospitalisation and death mirroring the trials so the IFR will be 0.005-0.01%. For a million unvaccinated people who get infected around 5-10k will die, for single dose vaccinated around 500-1000 people will die and for fully vaccinated people around 50-100 people will die and with the two other figures the numbers will be heavily skewed towards 80+ year olds, even more so than now.
Was just about to say similarly, although you did the working much quicker than I could!
In any case, if Newton-Dunn is right about the Public Health England report, the 90% protection against illness is superb news and will be a rabbit from a hat tonight.
It would be in line with the Scottish report that was released this morning.
Very interesting!
Macron will be crying into his cornflakes tomorrow.
Sorry but once everyone is vaccinated this is over.
Yes ~10% of those vaccinated may die, that's sad, but everyone dies eventually. We'll have done our best to protect them.
As for the refuseniks? Fuck them. If they die, they die. Their fault.
We don't have lockdowns to prevent smokers from getting cancer. Anyone who can't be arsed to get vaccinated and catches it once the vaccine is freely available is their own damned fool fault.
Paragraph 2 demonstrates the beating heart of a caring Conservative Party. Thankyou for your kindness Philip.
What do you propose after vaccinations are completed then?
It was the casual inevitability of "everyone dies eventually" that brought a tear to my eye. My interpretation was to quote BSM Williams (Windsor Davies) "Oh dear, never mind!"
Sorry but once everyone is vaccinated this is over.
Yes ~10% of those vaccinated may die, that's sad, but everyone dies eventually. We'll have done our best to protect them.
As for the refuseniks? Fuck them. If they die, they die. Their fault.
We don't have lockdowns to prevent smokers from getting cancer. Anyone who can't be arsed to get vaccinated and catches it once the vaccine is freely available is their own damned fool fault.
Paragraph 2 demonstrates the beating heart of a caring Conservative Party. Thankyou for your kindness Philip.
What do you propose after vaccinations are completed then?
It was the casual inevitability of "everyone dies eventually" that brought a tear to my eye. My interpretation was to quote BSM Williams (Windsor Davies) "Oh dear, never mind!"
Imagine complaining incessantly about covid and lockdown and then turning down the one thing that can make them go away. Christ...
I'm not sure we know their views on covid and lockdown. They could be worried about side effects or something.
My comment was intended to be general. Although I imagine @contrarian would also refuse the vaccine if offered. Happy for him to correct me though.
OK, it seemed as though you were referring to contrarian's family members, who (as far as I know) don't post here, so we don't know what their views are.
They don;'t but I am probably the moderate in all this.
Lets just say Bill Gates is not on wifey's christmas card list.
He probably should be.
The amount he's invested into vaccine deployment etc around the third world probably means he's done more than anyone else in preventing the need for future lockdowns.
That's what really puzzles me about people like you. Anyone genuinely opposed to lockdowns should be most in favour of vaccines.
I am not against vaccines. I think they are great for the vulnerable and anyone who wants them. What I am opposed to is compulsion, and the turning of those who don;t want vaccinations into second class citizens.
I am not against blackout regulations. I think they are great for those who aren't immune to falling German bombs, and anyone who wants them. What I am opposed to is compulsion, and the turning of those who like being able to see out their windows at night into second class citizens.
The wording is interesting - "down the age scale". So could be a suggestion of 30% of $lowerriskagegroup refuse. The polling suggests 30% overall is unlikely.
Yes, that makes much more sense. Thanks.
Of course, younger, fitter people do have some protection against covid: simple biology! If you are young and healthy, it's unlikely to do you much harm.
You're also more likely to get a good immune reaction to any vaccine. Being young, healthy and vaccinated is the triple crown of defenses against any virus.
Yes - the people who have put themselves in charge of our lives have decided that they need to stay in charge because the vaccine is ONLY 90% effective. It's total lunacy. If a 63% drop on hospital admissions and massive reduction in spread amongst the vaccine hold out mongs was genuinely not enough, then it would become pretty clear that the lesser civil liberty restriction would be compulstory vaccination rather than compulsory house arrest. Either way you absolutely can vaccinate your way out of this and it is terrifying that people in charge are claiming otherwise.
Yes it is total lunacy. Compulsory near house arrest on everyone just because the Government won't face down the refuseniks. They don't even need to make vaccination compulsory. They just need to continue to enforce the tightest restrictions possible on those who refuse vaccinations while relaxing them for everyone else. Then those selfish refuseniks would be beating down the door of vaccination centres and rates would quickly reach 100%.
Based on an IFR of 0.75% then I calculate that just over 17 million people in the UK have been infected with Covid. Roughly the same number have been vaccinated. I would love to be able to find a way to figure out what the overlap is because, if there is none, then about half the UK population may have antibodies.
Sorry but once everyone is vaccinated this is over.
Yes ~10% of those vaccinated may die, that's sad, but everyone dies eventually. We'll have done our best to protect them.
As for the refuseniks? Fuck them. If they die, they die. Their fault.
We don't have lockdowns to prevent smokers from getting cancer. Anyone who can't be arsed to get vaccinated and catches it once the vaccine is freely available is their own damned fool fault.
Paragraph 2 demonstrates the beating heart of a caring Conservative Party. Thankyou for your kindness Philip.
What do you propose after vaccinations are completed then?
It was the casual inevitability of "everyone dies eventually" that brought a tear to my eye. My interpretation was to quote BSM Williams (Windsor Davies) "Oh dear, never mind!"
What do you want?
Do you want to deny that? Do you want to prevent it? That's tilting at windmills and counterproductive, we need to accept death and taxes as unpleasant facts of life that do occur.
We can do our best at postponing death by vaccinating anyone. What we can never do is prevent it.
The 2 biggest screwups of this pandemic by our government are moving people into care homes and allowing unrestricted international travel for most of the last 14 months. Both undoubtedly caused thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of unnecessary deaths.
On the first I would say this. This decision was made at the time that we were seeking to set up the Nightingale hospitals, where the media were full of pictures of the disaster in northern Italy and the many, many unnecessary deaths suffered there because their health system was overwhelmed. The expectation of the government at the time was that the NHS would be similarly overwhelmed in early course. I think SAGE and other advisors from the NHS were seriously close to panic, and rightly so.
In that environment some pretty tough decisions were made. A lot of hospital beds were filled with what we have traditionally called bed blockers, people who didn't really need to be in hospital but were because our care system is crap and a suitable plan had not been put together. I suspect instructions were given to move these people out whether they had a full care plan or not so that the beds were available for those for whom they might do more good. So they were punted to care homes with minimal plans and, critically, no checks as to whether they had themselves been infected.
As it turns out the Nightingale hospitals were barely used, although the NHS was stretched severely it did not fall over and things did not turn out as bad as had entirely reasonably been feared. That makes the decision to move people out to care homes where inadequately trained and provisioned staff failed to prevent the spread of the disease amongst many of our most vulnerable look very wrong. And it was wrong, but only in hindsight.
I am not saying this is right, I simply say that there is a plausible explanation for what happened and that explanation is consistent with the same thing happening in England, Scotland, Wales and NI, apparently independently. I think it is possible that this decision might be justifiable at the time it was made.
Our policies on air travel throughout the pandemic, however, I simply find beyond rational explanation.
Good post. Not to say that it would have changed things - perhaps it wouldn't have - but its attempt to "keep the UK open", and thereby continue with international air travel, might have been a (large?) factor in the government going all in and early on the vaccines.
Hmm, from reading what's available the original vaccine drive started in around February with a group of UK biotech companies getting together independently to support the development of the Oxford vaccine. I'm not sure how much of a factor air travel was. I think the government has always seen vaccines as the endgame state so would have done it regardless.
What's interesting is that the UK suffers from almost no vaccine hesitancy and that is in part due to the horrific death rates over the last year and the government linking unlockdown to vaccination. In a perverse way the high death toll may end up meaning a much faster and higher take up of vaccines by the general public. In SK there is much higher vaccine hesitancy, a lot of that is surely because they've not had the alternative of people dying in their thousands and hospitals being overwhelmed leading to indefinite lockdowns.
I think there might be some truth in that. I'm certainly surprised by the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy in most of the Germans I know around here in Cologne.
But also look at the past record of vaccination - the UK normally vaccinates more than twice as many over 65s against flu as Germany does. And contributed far more to GAVI than other European countries already 10 years ago, so there's a whole bunch of factors probably.
While the EU vaccine procurement scheme has been crap, it doesn't seem to have been significantly worse than other continental western European countries (ie Switzerland and Norway). And not everything is seen through the lens of Brexit on the continent (I think it's probably true to say that nothing is except Brexit itself, which has barely made the news at all for about 3 years and was over a long time ago so far as most people are concerned), unlike on PB.com. In my entirely anecdotal experience, people are more likely to compare the slow vaccine rollout in Germany with the speed of Israel than with the UK.
Which is an odd one because Germany's second wave has been pretty horrific and I thought the lockdown had just been extended as well. One would hope that people see vaccines as the way out of this, lockdowns aren't an end state. I have to say the German media has had a really poor time of it on the AZ vaccine, it could lead to a prolonged lockdown because people are stupidly not taking it despite it being a really great vaccine. I really, really hope that the UK data coming out over the next few days will convince people to just get it done.
Yes, I can't think of any justification for using "anonymous sources" for claims that a vaccine doesn't work, those 2 newspapers should come clean and say who was spreading such rubbish, or apologise. The German vaccine agency hasn't helped by recommending AZ vaccine only for under 65s - maybe that will change now that more data is available.
The lockdown has just been relaxed, in the sense that in most states schools reopened today, with small groups, no mixing, and masks on all the time. And the second wave has been worse than the first, but still not as bad as many other places, and hospitals have never been close to being overwhelmed - Germany is still treating small numbers of patients from neighbours (as well as sending some equipment and doctors to Portugal).
But, yes lots of "hesitant" people are looking at what happens in Israel and the UK before being keen to take a vaccine. I know a few proper anti-vaxxers too - I don't think they will ever be convinced, on certain topics they are impervious to any contact with reality, though otherwise lovely people - but they are much smaller numbers.
I have no idea if this is true, but I read that the nonsense Handelsblatt report came from a source in the German Health Ministry, and possibly the Health Minister himself: which would explain why journalists were willing to take it at face value.
Surely such a senior politician would not lie about such an important point? Well, yes, he might, if he and his government were really embarrassed by the slow-roll out of the EU vaccine programme in Germany, and they wanted to divert attention.
Tut, tut, tut
In the UK those journos would have been fired a few days later.
What is your source that it was Spahn? (I would be very surprised)
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Any opponent of lockdown would be very silly to get caught up with anti vaxxers. The two are very different issues with very different arguments. Apart from the anti-vaxxers. Who have no arguments.
Different but quite an overlap on participants. Speaking of lockdown skeptics, what's your view on Nige's decision to go big into the anti-Chinese space? To me, it looks like a rare misstep from the arch populist. His USP is he has both golf club and dog track appeal and I reckon this just plays to the first. Will the Red Wallies be in a spin about the Chinese muscling in on Eton? I wouldn't have thought so.
You may have a point. Away from the European question, Farage is much less sure footed in politics. The man to watch in Reform is Richard Tice.
In any case, if Newton-Dunn is right about the Public Health England report, the 90% protection against illness is superb news and will be a rabbit from a hat tonight.
It would be in line with the Scottish report that was released this morning.
Very interesting!
Macron will be crying into his cornflakes tomorrow.
In all seriousness, what will he do if that is the finding? The Germans have simply reverse ferreted, will Macron do similarly?
The wording is interesting - "down the age scale". So could be a suggestion of 30% of $lowerriskagegroup refuse. The polling suggests 30% overall is unlikely.
Yes, that makes much more sense. Thanks.
Of course, younger, fitter people do have some protection against covid: simple biology! If you are young and healthy, it's unlikely to do you much harm.
You're also more likely to get a good immune reaction to any vaccine. Being young, healthy and vaccinated is the triple crown of defenses against any virus.
This is perhaps another of the government's missteps over the course of the pandemic. There were arguably far more effective measures that weren't taken at various times. https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1362375286994702336
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Any opponent of lockdown would be very silly to get caught up with anti vaxxers. The two are very different issues with very different arguments. Apart from the anti-vaxxers. Who have no arguments.
Different but quite an overlap on participants. Speaking of lockdown skeptics, what's your view on Nige's decision to go big into the anti-Chinese space? To me, it looks like a rare misstep from the arch populist. His USP is he has both golf club and dog track appeal and I reckon this just plays to the first. Will the Red Wallies be in a spin about the Chinese muscling in on Eton? I wouldn't have thought so.
There is some overlap with regard to lockdown skeptics and anti vaxxers to be sure. They both come from libertarian "wild west thinking" - keep the state out of my life and we`ll battle nature in our own way thank you. Extreme libertarians will also instinctively oppose state-sponsored things such as compulsory wearing of seat belts and fluoridation of water. They seek maximum negative liberty and self-reliance.
This libertarian mindset is not present in most people, like me, who argue that issues around liberty are not fully priced into government policy. But we get placed in the same box unfortunately.
The wording is interesting - "down the age scale". So could be a suggestion of 30% of $lowerriskagegroup refuse. The polling suggests 30% overall is unlikely.
Yes, that makes much more sense. Thanks.
Of course, younger, fitter people do have some protection against covid: simple biology! If you are young and healthy, it's unlikely to do you much harm.
You're also more likely to get a good immune reaction to any vaccine. Being young, healthy and vaccinated is the triple crown of defenses against any virus.
Imagine complaining incessantly about covid and lockdown and then turning down the one thing that can make them go away. Christ...
I'm not sure we know their views on covid and lockdown. They could be worried about side effects or something.
My comment was intended to be general. Although I imagine @contrarian would also refuse the vaccine if offered. Happy for him to correct me though.
OK, it seemed as though you were referring to contrarian's family members, who (as far as I know) don't post here, so we don't know what their views are.
They don;'t but I am probably the moderate in all this.
Lets just say Bill Gates is not on wifey's christmas card list.
He probably should be.
The amount he's invested into vaccine deployment etc around the third world probably means he's done more than anyone else in preventing the need for future lockdowns.
That's what really puzzles me about people like you. Anyone genuinely opposed to lockdowns should be most in favour of vaccines.
Something something hidden magic microchips?
Other than mRNA vaccines, the other big technology win out of this pandemic will be the big strides in undetectable but trackable low power chip technology
I know, it's brilliant. We can use the perpetual motion technology for electric cars (never need charging up ever again), and the antennas-that-don't-even-need-a-fraction-of-a-wavelength can be used in all sorts of applications indistinguishable from magic.
The young like to travel. When they realise this won't happen unless they get the jab - no trips to Ibiza, no sunny holidays in Greece, no weekends in Paris or stag parties in Prague - no chance to go anywhere abroad AT ALL - they will get accept the needle.
I reckon permanent refuseniks will be about 10% of the population, in the end. And, eventually, Darwin will sort them out.
The young like to travel. When they realise this won't happen unless they get the jab - no trips to Ibiza, no sunny holidays in Greece, no weekends in Paris or stag parties in Prague - no chance to go anywhere abroad AT ALL - they will get accept the needle.
I reckon permanent refuseniks will be about 10% of the population, in the end. And, eventually, Darwin will sort them out.
Fox Jr claimed last night that Israel is giving a free beer with vaccinations. He was up for it. A cheap date is my lad...
The wording is interesting - "down the age scale". So could be a suggestion of 30% of $lowerriskagegroup refuse. The polling suggests 30% overall is unlikely.
Yes, that makes much more sense. Thanks.
Of course, younger, fitter people do have some protection against covid: simple biology! If you are young and healthy, it's unlikely to do you much harm.
It is an attractive proposition, to just let it spread freely because most won't have serious symptoms. Trouble is that gives it a huge opportunity to mutate, perhaps into something that the vaccines can avoid. Best as many people are vaccinated as possible.
Oh yes, I agree completely. I'm not defending or advocating the behaviour of the antivaxxers. Simply critiquing Newton-Dunn's rather imprecise language.
The 2 biggest screwups of this pandemic by our government are moving people into care homes and allowing unrestricted international travel for most of the last 14 months. Both undoubtedly caused thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of unnecessary deaths.
On the first I would say this. This decision was made at the time that we were seeking to set up the Nightingale hospitals, where the media were full of pictures of the disaster in northern Italy and the many, many unnecessary deaths suffered there because their health system was overwhelmed. The expectation of the government at the time was that the NHS would be similarly overwhelmed in early course. I think SAGE and other advisors from the NHS were seriously close to panic, and rightly so.
In that environment some pretty tough decisions were made. A lot of hospital beds were filled with what we have traditionally called bed blockers, people who didn't really need to be in hospital but were because our care system is crap and a suitable plan had not been put together. I suspect instructions were given to move these people out whether they had a full care plan or not so that the beds were available for those for whom they might do more good. So they were punted to care homes with minimal plans and, critically, no checks as to whether they had themselves been infected.
As it turns out the Nightingale hospitals were barely used, although the NHS was stretched severely it did not fall over and things did not turn out as bad as had entirely reasonably been feared. That makes the decision to move people out to care homes where inadequately trained and provisioned staff failed to prevent the spread of the disease amongst many of our most vulnerable look very wrong. And it was wrong, but only in hindsight.
I am not saying this is right, I simply say that there is a plausible explanation for what happened and that explanation is consistent with the same thing happening in England, Scotland, Wales and NI, apparently independently. I think it is possible that this decision might be justifiable at the time it was made.
Our policies on air travel throughout the pandemic, however, I simply find beyond rational explanation.
Good post. Not to say that it would have changed things - perhaps it wouldn't have - but its attempt to "keep the UK open", and thereby continue with international air travel, might have been a (large?) factor in the government going all in and early on the vaccines.
Hmm, from reading what's available the original vaccine drive started in around February with a group of UK biotech companies getting together independently to support the development of the Oxford vaccine. I'm not sure how much of a factor air travel was. I think the government has always seen vaccines as the endgame state so would have done it regardless.
What's interesting is that the UK suffers from almost no vaccine hesitancy and that is in part due to the horrific death rates over the last year and the government linking unlockdown to vaccination. In a perverse way the high death toll may end up meaning a much faster and higher take up of vaccines by the general public. In SK there is much higher vaccine hesitancy, a lot of that is surely because they've not had the alternative of people dying in their thousands and hospitals being overwhelmed leading to indefinite lockdowns.
I think there might be some truth in that. I'm certainly surprised by the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy in most of the Germans I know around here in Cologne.
But also look at the past record of vaccination - the UK normally vaccinates more than twice as many over 65s against flu as Germany does. And contributed far more to GAVI than other European countries already 10 years ago, so there's a whole bunch of factors probably.
While the EU vaccine procurement scheme has been crap, it doesn't seem to have been significantly worse than other continental western European countries (ie Switzerland and Norway). And not everything is seen through the lens of Brexit on the continent (I think it's probably true to say that nothing is except Brexit itself, which has barely made the news at all for about 3 years and was over a long time ago so far as most people are concerned), unlike on PB.com. In my entirely anecdotal experience, people are more likely to compare the slow vaccine rollout in Germany with the speed of Israel than with the UK.
Which is an odd one because Germany's second wave has been pretty horrific and I thought the lockdown had just been extended as well. One would hope that people see vaccines as the way out of this, lockdowns aren't an end state. I have to say the German media has had a really poor time of it on the AZ vaccine, it could lead to a prolonged lockdown because people are stupidly not taking it despite it being a really great vaccine. I really, really hope that the UK data coming out over the next few days will convince people to just get it done.
Yes, I can't think of any justification for using "anonymous sources" for claims that a vaccine doesn't work, those 2 newspapers should come clean and say who was spreading such rubbish, or apologise. The German vaccine agency hasn't helped by recommending AZ vaccine only for under 65s - maybe that will change now that more data is available.
The lockdown has just been relaxed, in the sense that in most states schools reopened today, with small groups, no mixing, and masks on all the time. And the second wave has been worse than the first, but still not as bad as many other places, and hospitals have never been close to being overwhelmed - Germany is still treating small numbers of patients from neighbours (as well as sending some equipment and doctors to Portugal).
But, yes lots of "hesitant" people are looking at what happens in Israel and the UK before being keen to take a vaccine. I know a few proper anti-vaxxers too - I don't think they will ever be convinced, on certain topics they are impervious to any contact with reality, though otherwise lovely people - but they are much smaller numbers.
I have no idea if this is true, but I read that the nonsense Handelsblatt report came from a source in the German Health Ministry, and possibly the Health Minister himself: which would explain why journalists were willing to take it at face value.
Surely such a senior politician would not lie about such an important point? Well, yes, he might, if he and his government were really embarrassed by the slow-roll out of the EU vaccine programme in Germany, and they wanted to divert attention.
Tut, tut, tut
In the UK those journos would have been fired a few days later.
What is your source that it was Spahn? (I would be very surprised)
Well he responded to the stories by saying that mRNA vaccines have higher effectiveness and not recommending AZ for over-65s.
The wording is interesting - "down the age scale". So could be a suggestion of 30% of $lowerriskagegroup refuse. The polling suggests 30% overall is unlikely.
Yes, that makes much more sense. Thanks.
Of course, younger, fitter people do have some protection against covid: simple biology! If you are young and healthy, it's unlikely to do you much harm.
You're also more likely to get a good immune reaction to any vaccine. Being young, healthy and vaccinated is the triple crown of defenses against any virus.
True, but we are discussing young antivaxxers.
One of my friends, surprisingly to me didn't bother to get the vaccine (Shes JCVI6) the first time she was offered but is now taking up the offer. I think the Gov't is trying to persuade refusers with honey and reassurance* at the moment, many as the Panorama program showed are hesitant. The hardcore Icke/Piers-Corbynite/anti Bill Gates refusers can have the screw turned on them at a later date. Edit: Or even free beer as Foxy mentions in Israel !
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Yes - the people who have put themselves in charge of our lives have decided that they need to stay in charge because the vaccine is ONLY 90% effective. It's total lunacy. If a 63% drop on hospital admissions and massive reduction in spread amongst the vaccine hold out mongs was genuinely not enough, then it would become pretty clear that the lesser civil liberty restriction would be compulstory vaccination rather than compulsory house arrest. Either way you absolutely can vaccinate your way out of this and it is terrifying that people in charge are claiming otherwise.
Yes it is total lunacy. Compulsory near house arrest on everyone just because the Government won't face down the refuseniks. They don't even need to make vaccination compulsory. They just need to continue to enforce the tightest restrictions possible on those who refuse vaccinations while relaxing them for everyone else. Then those selfish refuseniks would be beating down the door of vaccination centres and rates would quickly reach 100%.
This is true. I'm not keen on vaccine passports, but as long it remains legal for private businesses to request evidence of vaccination, it will readily become the norm.
Based on an IFR of 0.75% then I calculate that just over 17 million people in the UK have been infected with Covid. Roughly the same number have been vaccinated. I would love to be able to find a way to figure out what the overlap is because, if there is none, then about half the UK population may have antibodies.
There is almost certainly a fairly big overlap though?
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
I don't have a particular interest in this, but on the evidence presented, there is no legal action (merely a letter from a firm of solicitors that asks for actions to be taken and leaves the door open to legal action if those actions are not taken).
Bollocks.
A letter from lawyers was sent demanding actions and demanding payment of £2,500. That's legal action.
It may not be courts, but getting lawyers to demand £2,500 off someone is legal action. What else would you call it? An invoice for services rendered?
Personally I would call it bullying. And those holding elected office should not do it. Period.
Simple ambiguity. Action in ordinary English means any deed, movement etc, 'action' to lawyers some of the time means a legal step involving a court. (Often, curiously, following a 'letter before action' beginning: Dear Sir, We act for....) which nicely embraces the ambiguity.
Its not an ambiguity which should confuse an experienced and capable QC such as Ms Cherry. What she did here, and has allegedly done before, is try to silence someone who has criticised her using legal threats from a solicitor and the possibility of court proceedings.
Based on an IFR of 0.75% then I calculate that just over 17 million people in the UK have been infected with Covid. Roughly the same number have been vaccinated. I would love to be able to find a way to figure out what the overlap is because, if there is none, then about half the UK population may have antibodies.
The default assumption should be that they're independent variables. Assume 26% of the 26% are overlapping. This would give 45% (from three weeks from now. As of right now, and assuming we work on dose+21 days, we'd be looking at 37%)
That 37% could indeed explain some of the depression in R (partial population immunity). After all, herd immunity isn't a binary thing. To suppress spread with partial immunity of 0% takes more in the way of NPIs than to suppress it at 37%.
To be honest, that 37% could be what's making the difference with the new variant being more transmissible but we're still able to hold it down - they mutually cancel.
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Toby Young.
The vaccine "makes you a different person."
Hmm.
How did Toby Young ever get accepted into the University of Oxford?
Because Germany has completely fucked up the publicity around the Oxford-AZ vaccine, by smearing it as useless, via absurdly fake news stories sourced from embarrassed politicians, they are now having to do an official news campaign to persuade Germans that, no, honestly, it is really safe and effective, after all.
What's the theory then?
That they didn't think the smear campaign would work - and now it has they are trying to undo it?
If a vaccine is 98% effective against illness and then 98% effective against serious illness and death - are the cumulative. So out of 100000 people 2000 would get it and of them 40 would get seriously ill and Die?
The 2 biggest screwups of this pandemic by our government are moving people into care homes and allowing unrestricted international travel for most of the last 14 months. Both undoubtedly caused thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of unnecessary deaths.
On the first I would say this. This decision was made at the time that we were seeking to set up the Nightingale hospitals, where the media were full of pictures of the disaster in northern Italy and the many, many unnecessary deaths suffered there because their health system was overwhelmed. The expectation of the government at the time was that the NHS would be similarly overwhelmed in early course. I think SAGE and other advisors from the NHS were seriously close to panic, and rightly so.
In that environment some pretty tough decisions were made. A lot of hospital beds were filled with what we have traditionally called bed blockers, people who didn't really need to be in hospital but were because our care system is crap and a suitable plan had not been put together. I suspect instructions were given to move these people out whether they had a full care plan or not so that the beds were available for those for whom they might do more good. So they were punted to care homes with minimal plans and, critically, no checks as to whether they had themselves been infected.
As it turns out the Nightingale hospitals were barely used, although the NHS was stretched severely it did not fall over and things did not turn out as bad as had entirely reasonably been feared. That makes the decision to move people out to care homes where inadequately trained and provisioned staff failed to prevent the spread of the disease amongst many of our most vulnerable look very wrong. And it was wrong, but only in hindsight.
I am not saying this is right, I simply say that there is a plausible explanation for what happened and that explanation is consistent with the same thing happening in England, Scotland, Wales and NI, apparently independently. I think it is possible that this decision might be justifiable at the time it was made.
Our policies on air travel throughout the pandemic, however, I simply find beyond rational explanation.
Good post. Not to say that it would have changed things - perhaps it wouldn't have - but its attempt to "keep the UK open", and thereby continue with international air travel, might have been a (large?) factor in the government going all in and early on the vaccines.
Hmm, from reading what's available the original vaccine drive started in around February with a group of UK biotech companies getting together independently to support the development of the Oxford vaccine. I'm not sure how much of a factor air travel was. I think the government has always seen vaccines as the endgame state so would have done it regardless.
What's interesting is that the UK suffers from almost no vaccine hesitancy and that is in part due to the horrific death rates over the last year and the government linking unlockdown to vaccination. In a perverse way the high death toll may end up meaning a much faster and higher take up of vaccines by the general public. In SK there is much higher vaccine hesitancy, a lot of that is surely because they've not had the alternative of people dying in their thousands and hospitals being overwhelmed leading to indefinite lockdowns.
I think there might be some truth in that. I'm certainly surprised by the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy in most of the Germans I know around here in Cologne.
But also look at the past record of vaccination - the UK normally vaccinates more than twice as many over 65s against flu as Germany does. And contributed far more to GAVI than other European countries already 10 years ago, so there's a whole bunch of factors probably.
While the EU vaccine procurement scheme has been crap, it doesn't seem to have been significantly worse than other continental western European countries (ie Switzerland and Norway). And not everything is seen through the lens of Brexit on the continent (I think it's probably true to say that nothing is except Brexit itself, which has barely made the news at all for about 3 years and was over a long time ago so far as most people are concerned), unlike on PB.com. In my entirely anecdotal experience, people are more likely to compare the slow vaccine rollout in Germany with the speed of Israel than with the UK.
Which is an odd one because Germany's second wave has been pretty horrific and I thought the lockdown had just been extended as well. One would hope that people see vaccines as the way out of this, lockdowns aren't an end state. I have to say the German media has had a really poor time of it on the AZ vaccine, it could lead to a prolonged lockdown because people are stupidly not taking it despite it being a really great vaccine. I really, really hope that the UK data coming out over the next few days will convince people to just get it done.
Yes, I can't think of any justification for using "anonymous sources" for claims that a vaccine doesn't work, those 2 newspapers should come clean and say who was spreading such rubbish, or apologise. The German vaccine agency hasn't helped by recommending AZ vaccine only for under 65s - maybe that will change now that more data is available.
The lockdown has just been relaxed, in the sense that in most states schools reopened today, with small groups, no mixing, and masks on all the time. And the second wave has been worse than the first, but still not as bad as many other places, and hospitals have never been close to being overwhelmed - Germany is still treating small numbers of patients from neighbours (as well as sending some equipment and doctors to Portugal).
But, yes lots of "hesitant" people are looking at what happens in Israel and the UK before being keen to take a vaccine. I know a few proper anti-vaxxers too - I don't think they will ever be convinced, on certain topics they are impervious to any contact with reality, though otherwise lovely people - but they are much smaller numbers.
I have no idea if this is true, but I read that the nonsense Handelsblatt report came from a source in the German Health Ministry, and possibly the Health Minister himself: which would explain why journalists were willing to take it at face value.
Surely such a senior politician would not lie about such an important point? Well, yes, he might, if he and his government were really embarrassed by the slow-roll out of the EU vaccine programme in Germany, and they wanted to divert attention.
Tut, tut, tut
In the UK those journos would have been fired a few days later.
What is your source that it was Spahn? (I would be very surprised)
It was some time ago (when the initial furore arose), and I believe - but I cannot prove it as I have forgotten the link - that it was in German media. Maybe the Spiegel?
Dunno. As you say there is reason to think this is untrue, as Spahn also distanced himself from the Handelsblatt claims a day or two later.
A very murky and damaging affair, anyroad. And not even an apology from the paper. Incredible.
Worst numbers since daily reported started 6 weeks ago:
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1363849005965443075 Clearly something is going on. Lack of supply? Stockpiling for 2nd doses? Both? The government must know that some serious supply is coming soon with the targets they have set.
Because Germany has completely fucked up the publicity around the Oxford-AZ vaccine, by smearing it as useless, via absurdly fake news stories sourced from embarrassed politicians, they are now having to do an official news campaign to persuade Germans that, no, honestly, it is really safe and effective, after all.
What's the theory then?
That they didn't think the smear campaign would work - and now it has they are trying to undo it?
There is no theory. It's just a series of grave missteps which they are now desperately trying to amend.
Because Germany has completely fucked up the publicity around the Oxford-AZ vaccine, by smearing it as useless, via absurdly fake news stories sourced from embarrassed politicians, they are now having to do an official news campaign to persuade Germans that, no, honestly, it is really safe and effective, after all.
What's the theory then?
That they didn't think the smear campaign would work - and now it has they are trying to undo it?
They didn't think.
They lashed out trying to get the vaccine as they were desperate to get it.
When that failed they were humiliated and lashed out discrediting it so it didn't seem such a big deal they didn't have it.
Is there any particular reason this is regarded as such a bad idea? I mean we have a tunnel from England to France...
I think it's a super idea myself, though this is the first time I've seen the Manx Interchange plan. Seems a bit of a weird one, as you have to go well out of your way to get from Scotland to NI and vice versa (though I assume it must still be quicker than the ferry).
The water between NI and Scotland is full of munitions. This route doesn't seem to be.
Though I'm curious why Stanraer for Scotland. I'd have thought a more Eastern point in Scotland would have made more sense given the IOM middle point - but I'm not too au fait with Scottish geography or if there's a good reason for it to be Stanraer.
Looking at a map of Scotland I'd have thought somewhere like Kirkcudbright on the way to Dumfries and still on the A75 would make more sense?
There are muntions to the NW of the IoM. Luce Bay on the "Stranraer Route" was a military practice range for years. The routes going east to England go through the oil and gas fields...
I did remind Philip of Johnson's record with water crossings yesterday. He countered by explaining that the £63m invisible Garden Bridge over the Thames was an excellent idea scuppered by a reckless Khan.
So Beverly you should be looking to blame the future administration that inevitably pulls the plug on this demonstration of Johnson's foresight and ambition.
I never said it was an excellent idea, I simply said it was cancelled by Khan.
Many new administrations cancel their predecessors projects that haven't begun yet - doesn't mean the predecessors projects were a bad idea.
If you want to argue it was bad do so on its own merits, the fact its "invisible" isn't one, since it wasn't him who made it that.
If Johnson is in charge as I hope and expect until 2027/2028 then if these tunnels are approved then the tunnelling should be well underway by then. If the tunnelling isn't underway yet then so be it if its cancelled.
Governments have been talking about new runways for Heathrow for over fifty years haven't they? Its not just Johnson that has form in this arena.
Best keep Johnson off Heathrow expansion too.
Wasn't he prepared to die on the runway to reject the plan? Needless to say he took the relatively safer option of a visit to Afghanistan on the day of the vote.
P.S. Tunnelling should be well underway by 2027/28? LOL
Absolutely. Starting in the basement of No 10. Boris already has some trousers adapted so he can sneak out the earth when doing his essential visits around the country.
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Toby Young.
The vaccine "makes you a different person."
Hmm.
How did Toby Young ever get accepted into the University of Oxford?
Worst numbers since daily reported started 6 weeks ago:
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1363849005965443075 Clearly something is going on. Lack of supply? Stockpiling for 2nd doses? Both? The government must know that some serious supply is coming soon with the targets they have set.
That's terrible. I was concerned after the Welsh figure. Hmpft
The 2 biggest screwups of this pandemic by our government are moving people into care homes and allowing unrestricted international travel for most of the last 14 months. Both undoubtedly caused thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of unnecessary deaths.
On the first I would say this. This decision was made at the time that we were seeking to set up the Nightingale hospitals, where the media were full of pictures of the disaster in northern Italy and the many, many unnecessary deaths suffered there because their health system was overwhelmed. The expectation of the government at the time was that the NHS would be similarly overwhelmed in early course. I think SAGE and other advisors from the NHS were seriously close to panic, and rightly so.
In that environment some pretty tough decisions were made. A lot of hospital beds were filled with what we have traditionally called bed blockers, people who didn't really need to be in hospital but were because our care system is crap and a suitable plan had not been put together. I suspect instructions were given to move these people out whether they had a full care plan or not so that the beds were available for those for whom they might do more good. So they were punted to care homes with minimal plans and, critically, no checks as to whether they had themselves been infected.
As it turns out the Nightingale hospitals were barely used, although the NHS was stretched severely it did not fall over and things did not turn out as bad as had entirely reasonably been feared. That makes the decision to move people out to care homes where inadequately trained and provisioned staff failed to prevent the spread of the disease amongst many of our most vulnerable look very wrong. And it was wrong, but only in hindsight.
I am not saying this is right, I simply say that there is a plausible explanation for what happened and that explanation is consistent with the same thing happening in England, Scotland, Wales and NI, apparently independently. I think it is possible that this decision might be justifiable at the time it was made.
Our policies on air travel throughout the pandemic, however, I simply find beyond rational explanation.
Plus: Slow lockdown. Shambolic test and trace. Christmas pantomime. January schools fiasco.
Shambolic test and trace - governments here and elsewhere rolled a number of dice. From what we knew, test and trace might have helped. It helped a lot less than hoped. This was true In other countries too. The UK gov went big on test and trace just as it went big on vaccines: we've tested more per head than almost any other large country. It didn't help. But from what we knew at the time, it might have done.
On the others, I'm just as cross, but I suspect from the opposite point of view to you. The initial lockdown was only a blink after it was advised by Sage - my view is that it was far too draconian and went on for far too long. Similarly, restrictions at Christmas were too much. I agree that schools in January were a fiasco, but they shouldn't have closed at all - we need an Ed Sec who can stand up for the value of education. (And teaching unions who are disinclined to view education as a non-essential service on a par with nail salons.) This may have led to higher cases and deaths. But I doubt it would be significant. Closing night clubs was probably a sensible idea, under the circumstances. Stopping people from sitting on a bench and closing children's playgrounds would be massively draconian even if it did have an effect on spread. Which it absolutely did not.
There is more to life than not dying.
On the subject of moving people into care homes - that was the logical endpoint of the 'protect the NHS' mantra. In most countries, the health services are there to protect the health of its citizens. Only in the UK does it operate the other way around.
I don't fully understand why we didn't stop international travel, at least in the early months of the pandemic. I'm guessing, but my take is that there are only so many UKIPpy things a Conservative government feels it can get away with doing at once - and Trump had been absolutely pilloried for stopping travel from China. Stopping international travel was felt to be too politically difficult, especially in the context of Brexit. I'd have backed - possibly wrongly, in retrospect - the government over allowing international holidays in the summer and autumn when the virus appeared to be receding everywhere.
Worst numbers since daily reported started 6 weeks ago:
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1363849005965443075 Clearly something is going on. Lack of supply? Stockpiling for 2nd doses? Both? The government must know that some serious supply is coming soon with the targets they have set.
Some element of weekend reporting in there, at least. Let's see Wednesday's number before we start pushing the panic button.
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Toby Young.
The vaccine "makes you a different person."
Hmm.
If only...
mRNA vaccines are used as the recipie for a cell to make proteins (in this case the Spike protein). Viruses do the same, by infecting a cell with its RNA*, which is then used to make viral proteins.
If Toby Young believes mRNA genetically alter people, then so does every human virus.
I suppose antivaxxers will be protected alongside Islamists and nazis when Toby is "Free Speech Champion"
*There are some DNA viruses too, but not coronavirus.
Anyone who knows someone who is refusing to take the vaccine has a duty to very strongly encourage them to have it in my opinion. It is bordering on the grossly irresponsible not to have it when offered. But I still think it shouldnt be compulsory.
Worst numbers since daily reported started 6 weeks ago:
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1363849005965443075 Clearly something is going on. Lack of supply? Stockpiling for 2nd doses? Both? The government must know that some serious supply is coming soon with the targets they have set.
They need to set themselves another Stretch Target. All the Priority Groups by mid-March. Do it. They may not make it but these difficult challenges certainly raise the general game. We saw it with tests, as well.
Imagine complaining incessantly about covid and lockdown and then turning down the one thing that can make them go away. Christ...
I'm not sure we know their views on covid and lockdown. They could be worried about side effects or something.
My comment was intended to be general. Although I imagine @contrarian would also refuse the vaccine if offered. Happy for him to correct me though.
OK, it seemed as though you were referring to contrarian's family members, who (as far as I know) don't post here, so we don't know what their views are.
They don;'t but I am probably the moderate in all this.
Lets just say Bill Gates is not on wifey's christmas card list.
Nothing that a few well placed nanobots can't fix, I'm sure.
Because Germany has completely fucked up the publicity around the Oxford-AZ vaccine, by smearing it as useless, via absurdly fake news stories sourced from embarrassed politicians, they are now having to do an official news campaign to persuade Germans that, no, honestly, it is really safe and effective, after all.
What's the theory then?
That they didn't think the smear campaign would work - and now it has they are trying to undo it?
The theory is that the EU is the ideologically-drive "death cult" that its UK-based supporters for so long claimed Brexit and Johnson's Tory Party were.
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Toby Young.
The vaccine "makes you a different person."
Hmm.
If only...
mRNA vaccines are used as the recipie for a cell to make proteins (in this case the Spike protein). Viruses do the same, by infecting a cell with its RNA*, which is then used to make viral proteins.
If Toby Young believes mRNA genetically alter people, then so does every human virus.
I suppose antivaxxers will be protected alongside Islamists and nazis when Toby is "Free Speech Champion"
*There are some DNA viruses too, but not coronavirus.
Dr John Lee wrote in the Speccie that 40% of the human genome is incorporated virus material.
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Toby Young.
The vaccine "makes you a different person."
Hmm.
How did Toby Young ever get accepted into the University of Oxford?
Bit of 'Dad'll fix it', is what I heard.
Still, I'm sure he would have thrived at Exeter.
Oxford Uni has a reasonable number of highly intelligent rather stupid people.
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Toby Young.
The vaccine "makes you a different person."
Hmm.
How did Toby Young ever get accepted into the University of Oxford?
Bit of 'Dad'll fix it', is what I heard.
Still, I'm sure he would have thrived at Exeter.
To think that, but for the intervention of a nepotistic Labour peer, we might never have heard of Toby Young...
Worst numbers since daily reported started 6 weeks ago:
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1363849005965443075 Clearly something is going on. Lack of supply? Stockpiling for 2nd doses? Both? The government must know that some serious supply is coming soon with the targets they have set.
That's terrible. I was concerned after the Welsh figure. Hmpft
It's been coming. I have been muttering about the trend for several days now. Some clarity as to supply would be helpful.
The 2 biggest screwups of this pandemic by our government are moving people into care homes and allowing unrestricted international travel for most of the last 14 months. Both undoubtedly caused thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of unnecessary deaths.
On the first I would say this. This decision was made at the time that we were seeking to set up the Nightingale hospitals, where the media were full of pictures of the disaster in northern Italy and the many, many unnecessary deaths suffered there because their health system was overwhelmed. The expectation of the government at the time was that the NHS would be similarly overwhelmed in early course. I think SAGE and other advisors from the NHS were seriously close to panic, and rightly so.
In that environment some pretty tough decisions were made. A lot of hospital beds were filled with what we have traditionally called bed blockers, people who didn't really need to be in hospital but were because our care system is crap and a suitable plan had not been put together. I suspect instructions were given to move these people out whether they had a full care plan or not so that the beds were available for those for whom they might do more good. So they were punted to care homes with minimal plans and, critically, no checks as to whether they had themselves been infected.
As it turns out the Nightingale hospitals were barely used, although the NHS was stretched severely it did not fall over and things did not turn out as bad as had entirely reasonably been feared. That makes the decision to move people out to care homes where inadequately trained and provisioned staff failed to prevent the spread of the disease amongst many of our most vulnerable look very wrong. And it was wrong, but only in hindsight.
I am not saying this is right, I simply say that there is a plausible explanation for what happened and that explanation is consistent with the same thing happening in England, Scotland, Wales and NI, apparently independently. I think it is possible that this decision might be justifiable at the time it was made.
Our policies on air travel throughout the pandemic, however, I simply find beyond rational explanation.
Good post. Not to say that it would have changed things - perhaps it wouldn't have - but its attempt to "keep the UK open", and thereby continue with international air travel, might have been a (large?) factor in the government going all in and early on the vaccines.
Whoever made that decision thought it was totally fine to effectively lock the domestic population up in their homes for 23 hours a day, but was happy for international travel to continue. That seems like a very strange combination of decisions to me, and suggests a rather weird way of thinking in my opinion. If anything, the obvious thing to have done would have been to shut down international travel FIRST before locking down the domestic population.
Worst numbers since daily reported started 6 weeks ago:
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1363849005965443075 Clearly something is going on. Lack of supply? Stockpiling for 2nd doses? Both? The government must know that some serious supply is coming soon with the targets they have set.
They need to set themselves another Stretch Target. All the Priority Groups by mid-March. Do it. They may not make it but these difficult challenges certainly raise the general game. We saw it with tests, as well.
There were a number of statements that supply last week and this would be constrained.
If a vaccine is 98% effective against illness and then 98% effective against serious illness and death - are the cumulative. So out of 100000 people 2000 would get it and of them 40 would get seriously ill and Die?
No, they're not cumulative, and they're always in comparison to what happens without the vaccine.
So, if previously out of 100,000 people exposed to the virus, 90,000 got it, now 1,800 would get it.
If 10,000 out of those 100,000 got seriously ill, now it will be 200.
That seems like a very low number in terms of total vaccinations. Run out of supply?
Is it possible that the government is starting to run out of road in terms of the number of people who really, really want a vaccine?
QTWAIN.
Its still all about supply. There's many tens of millions eager for their first dose, and well over ten million eager for their second.
No matter how hard Toby and the Lockdown Sceptics try to stoke up antivax sentiments. He’s got a catchy song today, to push the claim that mRNA vaccines rewrite your genes and make you a different person. Here’s where someone will pop up and say he doesn’t believe this and he’s just doing it to continue getting donations. What a contemptible worm he is.
Any opponent of lockdown would be very silly to get caught up with anti vaxxers. The two are very different issues with very different arguments. Apart from the anti-vaxxers. Who have no arguments.
Different but quite an overlap on participants. Speaking of lockdown skeptics, what's your view on Nige's decision to go big into the anti-Chinese space? To me, it looks like a rare misstep from the arch populist. His USP is he has both golf club and dog track appeal and I reckon this just plays to the first. Will the Red Wallies be in a spin about the Chinese muscling in on Eton? I wouldn't have thought so.
There is some overlap with regard to lockdown skeptics and anti vaxxers to be sure. They both come from libertarian "wild west thinking" - keep the state out of my life and we`ll battle nature in our own way thank you. Extreme libertarians will also instinctively oppose state-sponsored things such as compulsory wearing of seat belts and fluoridation of water. They seek maximum negative liberty and self-reliance.
This libertarian mindset is not present in most people, like me, who argue that issues around liberty are not fully priced into government policy. But we get placed in the same box unfortunately.
Not by me, you don't. And the 3rd strand is covid denialism. Either that it's a hoax or it's a little sniffle. This is present to a significant degree in both the other 2 groups.
Worst numbers since daily reported started 6 weeks ago:
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1363849005965443075 Clearly something is going on. Lack of supply? Stockpiling for 2nd doses? Both? The government must know that some serious supply is coming soon with the targets they have set.
Some element of weekend reporting in there, at least. Let's see Wednesday's number before we start pushing the panic button.
It's extremely low even for a weekend. But, I'm relatively sanguine. As others have said, the government must know its has the supply coming to hit the April target.
Imagine complaining incessantly about covid and lockdown and then turning down the one thing that can make them go away. Christ...
I'm not sure we know their views on covid and lockdown. They could be worried about side effects or something.
My comment was intended to be general. Although I imagine @contrarian would also refuse the vaccine if offered. Happy for him to correct me though.
OK, it seemed as though you were referring to contrarian's family members, who (as far as I know) don't post here, so we don't know what their views are.
They don;'t but I am probably the moderate in all this.
Lets just say Bill Gates is not on wifey's christmas card list.
Nothing that a few well placed nanobots can't fix, I'm sure.
Indeed, Gates is just trying to help. He has no view of how people should live their lives whatsoever.
Comments
Tunnelling for the Chunnel was underway 3 years after the decision was made to proceed. Creating the plans took place in those 3 years too.
If its not going to happen its not going to happen, so be it. But if it is then tunnelling could begin by 2027/28.
https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1363830928389373960
https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1363847525543923714
https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1363848876223041540
Though certainly she was a million miles better than Corbyn.
It would be in line with the Scottish report that was released this morning.
Very interesting!
I had never really investigated Twitter much before the pandemic. Almost any serious subject is too complex for a 140 character(?) summation. But it turns out there are some interesting people with some interesting fact-based information on there. And also thousands and thousands of utter nutters, which the Twitter AI seems anxious to hook you up with. Wondering whether we should impose a lockdown sooner? Here, meet all these people who genuinely think the government are murderers! Think lockdown might not be the best tool for the job? Here, meet lots of people who don't believe covid is real? And that is just one split - on any given subject you are only two clicks away from the most single-mindedly furious, insane and deranged views at both extremes of the spectrum. Not to mention the constant background hubbub of culture wars which no-one asked for. All this while we are denied the moderating influence of real world interactions with real people who haven't been selected by AI. It's no wonder the world has gone a bit odd.
The lockdown has just been relaxed, in the sense that in most states schools reopened today, with small groups, no mixing, and masks on all the time. And the second wave has been worse than the first, but still not as bad as many other places, and hospitals have never been close to being overwhelmed - Germany is still treating small numbers of patients from neighbours (as well as sending some equipment and doctors to Portugal).
But, yes lots of "hesitant" people are looking at what happens in Israel and the UK before being keen to take a vaccine. I know a few proper anti-vaxxers too - I don't think they will ever be convinced, on certain topics they are impervious to any contact with reality, though otherwise lovely people - but they are much smaller numbers.
Vaccination IS the way out of this, hopefully we've got enough takers in the UK to produce herd immunity.
Do you expect nobody to ever die ever again?
I hate to break it to you but everybody dies eventually.
Of course, younger, fitter people do have some protection against covid: simple biology! If you are young and healthy, it's unlikely to do you much harm.
Surely such a senior politician would not lie about such an important point? Well, yes, he might, if he and his government were really embarrassed by the slow-roll out of the EU vaccine programme in Germany, and they wanted to divert attention.
Tut, tut, tut
In the UK those journos would have been fired a few days later.
2019: Protect The Whistleblowers
2020: Pay off the Whistleblowers
2021: Open Season on Whistleblowers.
Do you want to deny that? Do you want to prevent it? That's tilting at windmills and counterproductive, we need to accept death and taxes as unpleasant facts of life that do occur.
We can do our best at postponing death by vaccinating anyone. What we can never do is prevent it.
https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1362375286994702336
This libertarian mindset is not present in most people, like me, who argue that issues around liberty are not fully priced into government policy. But we get placed in the same box unfortunately.
We can use the perpetual motion technology for electric cars (never need charging up ever again), and the antennas-that-don't-even-need-a-fraction-of-a-wavelength can be used in all sorts of applications indistinguishable from magic.
My gods ... even the snow is white .......
Bloody shambles.
Though of course worth remembering they could never vaccinate 100% of over 80s for medical and other reasons.
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/astrazeneca-jens-spahn-erwaegt-neuordnung-der-impfreihenfolge-a-5b133a32-609e-41bd-89e9-4ea46f2af220
Edit: Or even free beer as Foxy mentions in Israel !
Paging Macron (again)......
The vaccine "makes you a different person."
Hmm.
It's not a good look.
https://twitter.com/BBCSimonMcCoy/status/1363847693735460867?s=20
That 37% could indeed explain some of the depression in R (partial population immunity). After all, herd immunity isn't a binary thing. To suppress spread with partial immunity of 0% takes more in the way of NPIs than to suppress it at 37%.
To be honest, that 37% could be what's making the difference with the new variant being more transmissible but we're still able to hold it down - they mutually cancel.
That they didn't think the smear campaign would work - and now it has they are trying to undo it?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1363843702104465414?s=20
Dunno. As you say there is reason to think this is untrue, as Spahn also distanced himself from the Handelsblatt claims a day or two later.
A very murky and damaging affair, anyroad. And not even an apology from the paper. Incredible.
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1363849005965443075
Clearly something is going on. Lack of supply? Stockpiling for 2nd doses? Both? The government must know that some serious supply is coming soon with the targets they have set.
They lashed out trying to get the vaccine as they were desperate to get it.
When that failed they were humiliated and lashed out discrediting it so it didn't seem such a big deal they didn't have it.
Once in a hole, stop digging.
Still, I'm sure he would have thrived at Exeter.
On the others, I'm just as cross, but I suspect from the opposite point of view to you. The initial lockdown was only a blink after it was advised by Sage - my view is that it was far too draconian and went on for far too long. Similarly, restrictions at Christmas were too much. I agree that schools in January were a fiasco, but they shouldn't have closed at all - we need an Ed Sec who can stand up for the value of education. (And teaching unions who are disinclined to view education as a non-essential service on a par with nail salons.)
This may have led to higher cases and deaths. But I doubt it would be significant. Closing night clubs was probably a sensible idea, under the circumstances. Stopping people from sitting on a bench and closing children's playgrounds would be massively draconian even if it did have an effect on spread. Which it absolutely did not.
There is more to life than not dying.
On the subject of moving people into care homes - that was the logical endpoint of the 'protect the NHS' mantra. In most countries, the health services are there to protect the health of its citizens. Only in the UK does it operate the other way around.
I don't fully understand why we didn't stop international travel, at least in the early months of the pandemic. I'm guessing, but my take is that there are only so many UKIPpy things a Conservative government feels it can get away with doing at once - and Trump had been absolutely pilloried for stopping travel from China. Stopping international travel was felt to be too politically difficult, especially in the context of Brexit.
I'd have backed - possibly wrongly, in retrospect - the government over allowing international holidays in the summer and autumn when the virus appeared to be receding everywhere.
mRNA vaccines are used as the recipie for a cell to make proteins (in this case the Spike protein). Viruses do the same, by infecting a cell with its RNA*, which is then used to make viral proteins.
If Toby Young believes mRNA genetically alter people, then so does every human virus.
I suppose antivaxxers will be protected alongside Islamists and nazis when Toby is "Free Speech Champion"
*There are some DNA viruses too, but not coronavirus.
And so to lunch.
So, if previously out of 100,000 people exposed to the virus, 90,000 got it, now 1,800 would get it.
If 10,000 out of those 100,000 got seriously ill, now it will be 200.
If 1,000 died, now 20 die.