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Are the COVID trends positive enough for ministers to ease the lockdown? – politicalbetting.com

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    This big announcement has basically been revealed in full to the media. I wonder what the speaker will make of it?

    It's a game. Everyone pretends that statements will always be made first to the Commons when we know they won't, the Speaker, whoever it is, will righteously criticise it, the government will at best make a mealy mouthed apology (can't defend against leaks, Mr Speaker, then it will happen again next time.
    Leaks have always happened and always will.
    Stage 8 - 1 September - Liverpool win a home game :lol:
    :smiley::smiley::smiley:
    Pubman didn’t say which year!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I wonder if the Net Satisfaction vs Gross positives dilemma causes party leaders advisors to mislead them. Starmer’s acolytes are telling him YouGov show him to be both a stronger leader than Boris, and more likeable, yet more people said Boris was strong and more said he was likeable

    NS means people never having heard of him or having no opinion either way is translated as him being more popular.

    I really think the mark of how popular someone is, is how many people like them. The don’t know/don’t cares are a smokescreen

    For instance, latest YG has Starmer net +8 ‘likeable’ & Boris +5

    The trouble is 45 like Boris and only 36 Sir Keir. Sir Keir wins on NS because don’t knows are thought to split 50/50. I guess the question is ‘should don’t knows be split 50/50?’ If yes, that put pays to ‘A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush’
    In real elections, roughly a third of people don’t vote...
    Poor old local elections, where perhaps 2/3 won't vote, now not even real elections :)
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706
    I suppose my big complaint is it doesn't look very much different to what the reopening plan would have looked like if we didn't have vaccines and/or hadn't vaccinated more than a few tens of thousands of folk.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    According to the maps we saw today, the tunnel would go right underneath Barrow-in-Furness on its way to Heysham. I dont know whether thats how it would be in reality.
  • dixiedean said:

    It's all about the 4 tests:
    - vaccinations
    - effectiveness of vaccinations
    - infection rates
    - variants

    Sky - just released.

    Not hospitalisations or deaths?
    That's what I heard on Sky.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    No pubs until stage 4 - 10 May

    You heard it here first.

    Where did you read that?
    I am projecting it on a three week cycle

    8 March - schools back (confirmed)
    29 March - limited outside meetings (confirmed)
    19 April, three weeks later - non essential retail, virtually nailed on
    10 May, pubs as described
    31 May (Stage 5) - some further relaxations eg sporting events.

    Outdoor pubs isn't going to happen on 19 April -not viable
    Specifically on the sporting events, there was that rumour the other night that the Government was thinking of calling Uefa and offering to take on the postponed Euro2020 (the tournament which was, if we recall, meant to be taking place in locations all across the continent, most of which will probably still be in much worse shape than we are come the Summer.) It was re-scheduled to begin on June 11th.

    I think it's something like the first time since the extinction of the dinosaurs that Wales, Scotland and England have all qualified for the same major football tournament, so the timing certainly couldn't be any better. If the Government can get the exit from lockdown right then there might actually be some spectators allowed, even if they are all us.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    I suppose my big complaint is it doesn't look very much different to what the reopening plan would have looked like if we didn't have vaccines and/or hadn't vaccinated more than a few tens of thousands of folk.

    Bang on.

    This is also the reason why there is going to be widespread flouting.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC:

    8th March:
    All schools to reopen and children can play sport
    One person can visit a care home resident
    One-to-one social meetings outdoors

    29th March:
    Rule of six for outdoor meetings
    Two households can meet outdoors
    All organised sport

    TOOOOOO CONFUSING.....
    So I can go on holiday abroad from Easter, right? We're meeting with six friends outdoors in Magaluf....
    How many question on summer holidays do you think we will get tomorrow at the press conference? I'm going with 50% of them.
    Excellent, I’m hoping for some probing questions about domestic holidays in particular. It’s absolutely right that journalists ask them and keep the government under pressure, and try to tease as much mood music as possible from them. The public is desperate for hope.
    Now is indeed a reasonable time to ask, as there is new information about plans which will need clarification, and detail to be teased out. That's quite different to a situation of longstanding no change where the answer was no different than the last 20 times it was asked, and meant the government faced less pressure than it otherwise would have on other issues. I think you know that.
    Not so, I was on here the other day to find pages of whining about holiday questions. There was only two out of about a dozen journo questions! Perfectly reasonable outside the weird world of PB.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    Given all anybody is talking about this weekend is what will the release the Kraken rules be, what was the point of Starmer's "BIG RELAUNCH" this week? Nobody is talking about his Brit Bond etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Mortimer said:

    I suppose my big complaint is it doesn't look very much different to what the reopening plan would have looked like if we didn't have vaccines and/or hadn't vaccinated more than a few tens of thousands of folk.

    Bang on.

    This is also the reason why there is going to be widespread flouting.
    Indeed. People will do what they feel is safe, regardless of rules - same for Covid as for speed limits.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    I suppose my big complaint is it doesn't look very much different to what the reopening plan would have looked like if we didn't have vaccines and/or hadn't vaccinated more than a few tens of thousands of folk.

    That’s a fair point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited February 2021

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC:

    8th March:
    All schools to reopen and children can play sport
    One person can visit a care home resident
    One-to-one social meetings outdoors

    29th March:
    Rule of six for outdoor meetings
    Two households can meet outdoors
    All organised sport

    TOOOOOO CONFUSING.....
    So I can go on holiday abroad from Easter, right? We're meeting with six friends outdoors in Magaluf....
    How many question on summer holidays do you think we will get tomorrow at the press conference? I'm going with 50% of them.
    Excellent, I’m hoping for some probing questions about domestic holidays in particular. It’s absolutely right that journalists ask them and keep the government under pressure, and try to tease as much mood music as possible from them. The public is desperate for hope.
    Now is indeed a reasonable time to ask, as there is new information about plans which will need clarification, and detail to be teased out. That's quite different to a situation of longstanding no change where the answer was no different than the last 20 times it was asked, and meant the government faced less pressure than it otherwise would have on other issues. I think you know that.
    Not so, I was on here the other day to find pages of whining about holiday questions. There was only two out of about a dozen journo questions! Perfectly reasonable outside the weird world of PB.
    The thing you persist in pretending is that people who objected to that specific line of questioning don't want the government to be under pressure (hence the emphasis on it in your post), thus transforming a disagreement on the most effective line of questioning, on which people will of course disagree, into one about goodies who want answers about holidays and baddies who want to stop the government facing questions.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I presume it will still be work from home, don't travel anywhere you don't need to for the next couple of months?

    That would be my expectation: lockdown plus schools and an extremely stingy menu of outdoor activities. I don't think we're going to get very much else until the over 50s vax target is in the bag and both hospital admissions and the total numbers of patients are very much lower than they are now - although I wouldn't want to put a number on that and it's possible we won't get one from the Government either, which is a shame. If they are too vague and don't offer any metrics at all, then it will make people suspect that they intend to stall and keep us locked down for as long as humanly possible, which is the kind of negative headspace I'm trying to escape from and a lot of people are still in. Some identifiable milestones that we need to reach would give us something to work towards, something to hope for, and help to hold ministers' feet to the fire.
    I think you are right there. The trouble is, they would then possibly set the numbers ludicrously low to avoid being seen as reckless. So maybe vague milestones are the least worst option?!
    Well, that is the other problem, isn't it?

    Anyhow, I've just realised how bloody late it's got so time for bed. We can pull the plan to pieces when it's actually been announced in full tomorrow. Goodnight all.
  • No pubs until stage 4 - 10 May

    You heard it here first.

    Where did you read that?
    I am projecting it on a three week cycle

    8 March - schools back (confirmed)
    29 March - limited outside meetings (confirmed)
    19 April, three weeks later - non essential retail, virtually nailed on
    10 May, pubs as described
    31 May (Stage 5) - some further relaxations eg sporting events.

    Outdoor pubs isn't going to happen on 19 April -not viable
    Specifically on the sporting events, there was that rumour the other night that the Government was thinking of calling Uefa and offering to take on the postponed Euro2020 (the tournament which was, if we recall, meant to be taking place in locations all across the continent, most of which will probably still be in much worse shape than we are come the Summer.) It was re-scheduled to begin on June 11th.

    I think it's something like the first time since the extinction of the dinosaurs that Wales, Scotland and England have all qualified for the same major football tournament, so the timing certainly couldn't be any better. If the Government can get the exit from lockdown right then there might actually be some spectators allowed, even if they are all us.
    Yes I mentioned this a few days ago. Possibly yesterday. Given that Europe as a whole will not have made the progress on vaccinations that UK have, this seems an excellent idea. Especially as you say Wales, Scotland and England have qualified for one event for first time in a while. We can share the games out.

    We can play some games at Anfield and assuming England don't play there, there will be no home advantage! Some things don't change :lol::lol:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    No pubs until stage 4 - 10 May

    You heard it here first.

    Where did you read that?
    I am projecting it on a three week cycle

    8 March - schools back (confirmed)
    29 March - limited outside meetings (confirmed)
    19 April, three weeks later - non essential retail, virtually nailed on
    10 May, pubs as described
    31 May (Stage 5) - some further relaxations eg sporting events.

    Outdoor pubs isn't going to happen on 19 April -not viable
    Specifically on the sporting events, there was that rumour the other night that the Government was thinking of calling Uefa and offering to take on the postponed Euro2020 (the tournament which was, if we recall, meant to be taking place in locations all across the continent, most of which will probably still be in much worse shape than we are come the Summer.) It was re-scheduled to begin on June 11th.

    I think it's something like the first time since the extinction of the dinosaurs that Wales, Scotland and England have all qualified for the same major football tournament, so the timing certainly couldn't be any better. If the Government can get the exit from lockdown right then there might actually be some spectators allowed, even if they are all us.
    That’s a great point: when was the last time all three qualified? Has it ever happened before? I’m pretty sure it’s never happened in my lifetime - and I’m in my mid-forties.
  • Is Boris doing a press briefing at 7pm tomorrow or is it just an address to the nation? If its the latter, at least we won't hear Laura going on about foreign holidays!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC:

    8th March:
    All schools to reopen and children can play sport
    One person can visit a care home resident
    One-to-one social meetings outdoors

    29th March:
    Rule of six for outdoor meetings
    Two households can meet outdoors
    All organised sport

    TOOOOOO CONFUSING.....
    So I can go on holiday abroad from Easter, right? We're meeting with six friends outdoors in Magaluf....
    How many question on summer holidays do you think we will get tomorrow at the press conference? I'm going with 50% of them.
    Excellent, I’m hoping for some probing questions about domestic holidays in particular. It’s absolutely right that journalists ask them and keep the government under pressure, and try to tease as much mood music as possible from them. The public is desperate for hope.
    Now is indeed a reasonable time to ask, as there is new information about plans which will need clarification, and detail to be teased out. That's quite different to a situation of longstanding no change where the answer was no different than the last 20 times it was asked, and meant the government faced less pressure than it otherwise would have on other issues. I think you know that.
    Not so, I was on here the other day to find pages of whining about holiday questions. There was only two out of about a dozen journo questions! Perfectly reasonable outside the weird world of PB.
    The thing you persist in pretending is that people who objected to that specific line of questioning don't want the government to be under pressure (hence the emphasis on it in your post), thus transforming a disagreement on the most effective line of questioning, on which people will of course disagree, into one about goodies who want answers about holidays and baddies who want to stop the government facing questions.
    Goodies and baddies? Nope. I just see lots of whining on PB about holiday questions. I completely disagree with the whiners’ analysis and thus tell them so. A few holiday questions each press conference is perfectly reasonable. It’s important, in fact.
  • Mortimer said:

    I suppose my big complaint is it doesn't look very much different to what the reopening plan would have looked like if we didn't have vaccines and/or hadn't vaccinated more than a few tens of thousands of folk.

    Bang on.

    This is also the reason why there is going to be widespread flouting.
    It really is surprising there is no opening up of anything for vaccinated people. Why can't, for instance, vaccinated relatives visit vaccinated care home residents? Or meet for a cup of tea? Not only would it reduce non-compliance, it would also incentivise getting the jab amongst hold-out groups.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Pulpstar said:

    One of the more interesting rules is masks in shops. In my opinion it's quite cost free, heading into the local ASDA is hardly a big day out with mates - everyone there is there for utalitarian purpose - to buy food and the occasional wine.
    You do see people opposed, sometimes through ignorance and at other times ideology. Some opponents of face masks in shops are also raging antivaxxers, but not all. Others seem to think the mask effective when worn round the chin...
    I think it's probably the last rule that should be dropped, beyond perhaps even nightclubs opening. I mean despite the massively higher risk of a club (Even when vaccinated) and the fact it's a place noone's going to wear a mask in - everyone heading there is CHOOSING to go there, same with the pub. Essential retail is well essential and we should probably continue to wear a mask there for a while yet though.
    I'll probably drop to just a surgical/cloth mask and ditch the FFP3 once I've been vaxxed mind.

    Yeah I think that’s fair enough. Going to the supermarket is a chore anyway, wearing a mask there barely makes a difference. Like you say, it’s not a social activity.
  • Is Boris doing a press briefing at 7pm tomorrow or is it just an address to the nation? If its the latter, at least we won't hear Laura going on about foreign holidays!

    Remember it was Boris himself who trailed an announcement on holidays tomorrow. It is idle to blame the press.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Mortimer said:

    I suppose my big complaint is it doesn't look very much different to what the reopening plan would have looked like if we didn't have vaccines and/or hadn't vaccinated more than a few tens of thousands of folk.

    Bang on.

    This is also the reason why there is going to be widespread flouting.
    It really is surprising there is no opening up of anything for vaccinated people. Why can't, for instance, vaccinated relatives visit vaccinated care home residents? Or meet for a cup of tea? Not only would it reduce non-compliance, it would also incentivise getting the jab amongst hold-out groups.

    Do we know there isn’t? Although admittedly the press speculation doesn’t cite anything. It does rather prompt the question: what are vaccines for? (I know, I know - but in the minds of Joe Public)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    Given all anybody is talking about this weekend is what will the release the Kraken rules be, what was the point of Starmer's "BIG RELAUNCH" this week? Nobody is talking about his Brit Bond etc.

    Yes, that's the problem with Labour doing anything at the moment. Starmer was pressed into doing something, but he knows it's not going to get much of a hearing, so he did the minimum.
  • WSAZ TV, Huntington WV - Republicans – most registered voters in Mountain State
    [First time since 1932, confirms West Virginia's political transformation]

    https://www.wowktv.com/news/local/republicans-most-registered-voters-in-mountain-state/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    Given all anybody is talking about this weekend is what will the release the Kraken rules be, what was the point of Starmer's "BIG RELAUNCH" this week? Nobody is talking about his Brit Bond etc.

    Not quite right. There are a few people talking about his Bond....Brit Bond.

    That talk is "It's bollocks, mate...."
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Given all anybody is talking about this weekend is what will the release the Kraken rules be, what was the point of Starmer's "BIG RELAUNCH" this week? Nobody is talking about his Brit Bond etc.

    Yes, that's the problem with Labour doing anything at the moment. Starmer was pressed into doing something, but he knows it's not going to get much of a hearing, so he did the minimum.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-has-every-chance-of-becoming-pm-theres-just-one-obstacle-the-labour-party-gdm7bxqs7
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited February 2021

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC:

    8th March:
    All schools to reopen and children can play sport
    One person can visit a care home resident
    One-to-one social meetings outdoors

    29th March:
    Rule of six for outdoor meetings
    Two households can meet outdoors
    All organised sport

    TOOOOOO CONFUSING.....
    So I can go on holiday abroad from Easter, right? We're meeting with six friends outdoors in Magaluf....
    How many question on summer holidays do you think we will get tomorrow at the press conference? I'm going with 50% of them.
    Excellent, I’m hoping for some probing questions about domestic holidays in particular. It’s absolutely right that journalists ask them and keep the government under pressure, and try to tease as much mood music as possible from them. The public is desperate for hope.
    Now is indeed a reasonable time to ask, as there is new information about plans which will need clarification, and detail to be teased out. That's quite different to a situation of longstanding no change where the answer was no different than the last 20 times it was asked, and meant the government faced less pressure than it otherwise would have on other issues. I think you know that.
    Not so, I was on here the other day to find pages of whining about holiday questions. There was only two out of about a dozen journo questions! Perfectly reasonable outside the weird world of PB.
    The thing you persist in pretending is that people who objected to that specific line of questioning don't want the government to be under pressure (hence the emphasis on it in your post), thus transforming a disagreement on the most effective line of questioning, on which people will of course disagree, into one about goodies who want answers about holidays and baddies who want to stop the government facing questions.
    Goodies and baddies? Nope. I just see lots of whining on PB about holiday questions. I completely disagree with the whiners’ analysis and thus tell them so. A few holiday questions each press conference is perfectly reasonable. It’s important, in fact.
    You don't just tell them so - you repeatedly present it as putting pressure on the government and therefore those you disagree with as not wanting there to be any pressure, even as they might loudly and angrily want there to be pressure on other things. That escalates it beyond an issue on which people might reasonably disagree into practically a moral one.

    You may not use the words goodies and baddies, but it is pretty clear that's your meaning. Were it merely that there's a dispute over how much questioning on the subject is reasonable I don't think anyone would have any issue, but you've been uncompromising in condemning anyone for daring to take a contrary view, and whinge about people whinging, which is a pretty bizarre stance to take.

    Why is it 'whinging' for people to express their view that it was an unreasonable level, but your criticising their criticism is not whinging? Is criticising your criticism of the criticism whinging, or 'just telling you so'? I think this is an irregular verb situation.

    You've even brought it up in this thread to pre-whinge about the possibility people will whinge about it tomorrow. We might be surprised - as I said, as this is a roadmap for reducing restrictions, it'd be a pretty reasonable time for some more questions on that subject.

    But because its goodies vs baddies you've not even waited for the baddies to do a bad thing to criticise. I'd criticise people criticising questions about holidays tomorrow. How about we wait for them to do it before whinging about their whinging?

    Nighty night
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    It looks to be erring on the safe side, which is what most people want. The ability of two friends to meet outside will be popular, and the "6 at Easter" may prove to be TOO popular - if there's much flouting, it'll probably start then. But effectively everyone will be limited to day trips as no hospitality or home visits.

    Why school sport has been singled out for special treatment seems mysterious - no social distancing in backetball, and it's not obvious it's a crucial priority. Like the strange exception always given for garden centres, it perhaps reflects the interests of the personal circle of Ministers that they really think these things are more important than, say, meeting in pub gardens.
  • Pulpstar said:

    One of the more interesting rules is masks in shops. In my opinion it's quite cost free, heading into the local ASDA is hardly a big day out with mates - everyone there is there for utalitarian purpose - to buy food and the occasional wine.
    You do see people opposed, sometimes through ignorance and at other times ideology. Some opponents of face masks in shops are also raging antivaxxers, but not all. Others seem to think the mask effective when worn round the chin...
    I think it's probably the last rule that should be dropped, beyond perhaps even nightclubs opening. I mean despite the massively higher risk of a club (Even when vaccinated) and the fact it's a place noone's going to wear a mask in - everyone heading there is CHOOSING to go there, same with the pub. Essential retail is well essential and we should probably continue to wear a mask there for a while yet though.
    I'll probably drop to just a surgical/cloth mask and ditch the FFP3 once I've been vaxxed mind.

    Yeah I think that’s fair enough. Going to the supermarket is a chore anyway, wearing a mask there barely makes a difference. Like you say, it’s not a social activity.
    Masks in shops, busses, trains and other indoor environments nailed on until Spring 2022.
  • Given all anybody is talking about this weekend is what will the release the Kraken rules be, what was the point of Starmer's "BIG RELAUNCH" this week? Nobody is talking about his Brit Bond etc.

    Good news for Skyr then.

    It was a speech to say "please don't forget me, I still exist".

    People talking about an idea as crazy as Labour's BritBonds wouldn't win anyone over anyway so best not have people thinking through the details too much.
  • Speaking of UK transport infrastructure, perhaps well-connected PBers could arrange for HMG to consider my own revolutionary proposals?

    Specifically my plan for a network of pneumatic tubes that could propel passengers and freight from Land's End to John o' Groats in less that 17 minutes. OR a bit longer IF you wish to ensure that goods & persons arrive in one piece).

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC:

    8th March:
    All schools to reopen and children can play sport
    One person can visit a care home resident
    One-to-one social meetings outdoors

    29th March:
    Rule of six for outdoor meetings
    Two households can meet outdoors
    All organised sport

    TOOOOOO CONFUSING.....
    So I can go on holiday abroad from Easter, right? We're meeting with six friends outdoors in Magaluf....
    How many question on summer holidays do you think we will get tomorrow at the press conference? I'm going with 50% of them.
    Excellent, I’m hoping for some probing questions about domestic holidays in particular. It’s absolutely right that journalists ask them and keep the government under pressure, and try to tease as much mood music as possible from them. The public is desperate for hope.
    Now is indeed a reasonable time to ask, as there is new information about plans which will need clarification, and detail to be teased out. That's quite different to a situation of longstanding no change where the answer was no different than the last 20 times it was asked, and meant the government faced less pressure than it otherwise would have on other issues. I think you know that.
    Not so, I was on here the other day to find pages of whining about holiday questions. There was only two out of about a dozen journo questions! Perfectly reasonable outside the weird world of PB.
    The thing you persist in pretending is that people who objected to that specific line of questioning don't want the government to be under pressure (hence the emphasis on it in your post), thus transforming a disagreement on the most effective line of questioning, on which people will of course disagree, into one about goodies who want answers about holidays and baddies who want to stop the government facing questions.
    Goodies and baddies? Nope. I just see lots of whining on PB about holiday questions. I completely disagree with the whiners’ analysis and thus tell them so. A few holiday questions each press conference is perfectly reasonable. It’s important, in fact.
    You don't just tell them so - you repeatedly present it as putting pressure on the government and therefore those you disagree with as not wanting there to be any pressure, even as they might loudly and angrily want there to be pressure on other things. That escalates it beyond an issue on which people might reasonably disagree into practically a moral one.

    You may not use the words goodies and baddies, but it is pretty clear that's your meaning. Were it merely that there's a dispute over how much questioning on the subject is reasonable I don't think anyone would have any issue, but you've been uncompromising in condemning anyone for daring to take a contrary view, and whinge about people whinging, which is a pretty bizarre stance to take.

    Why is it 'whinging' for people to express their view that it was an unreasonable level, but your criticising their criticism is not whinging? Is criticising your criticism of the criticism whinging, or 'just telling you so'? I think this is an irregular verb situation.

    You've even brought it up in this thread to pre-whinge about the possibility people will whinge about it tomorrow. We might be surprised - as I said, as this is a roadmap for reducing restrictions, it'd be a pretty reasonable time for some more questions on that subject.

    But because its goodies vs baddies you've not even waited for the baddies to do a bad thing to criticise. I'd criticise people criticising questions about holidays tomorrow. How about we wait for them to do it before whinging about their whinging?

    Nighty night
    Goodnight. I didn’t bring it up however! It was mentioned (yet again!) earlier.
  • Pulpstar said:

    One of the more interesting rules is masks in shops. In my opinion it's quite cost free, heading into the local ASDA is hardly a big day out with mates - everyone there is there for utalitarian purpose - to buy food and the occasional wine.
    You do see people opposed, sometimes through ignorance and at other times ideology. Some opponents of face masks in shops are also raging antivaxxers, but not all. Others seem to think the mask effective when worn round the chin...
    I think it's probably the last rule that should be dropped, beyond perhaps even nightclubs opening. I mean despite the massively higher risk of a club (Even when vaccinated) and the fact it's a place noone's going to wear a mask in - everyone heading there is CHOOSING to go there, same with the pub. Essential retail is well essential and we should probably continue to wear a mask there for a while yet though.
    I'll probably drop to just a surgical/cloth mask and ditch the FFP3 once I've been vaxxed mind.

    Yeah I think that’s fair enough. Going to the supermarket is a chore anyway, wearing a mask there barely makes a difference. Like you say, it’s not a social activity.
    Masks in shops, busses, trains and other indoor environments nailed on until Spring 2022.
    Probably be a common sight in winters for years or decades to come.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    I presume it will still be work from home, don't travel anywhere you don't need to* for the next couple of months?

    * I mean as in driving a couple of hours to catch up with somebody, rather than popping down the road to use the park or get a coffee.

    Good question, and needs clarification. There will be loads of cases where people are willing to drive for 2 hours to meet someone. It''s not obviously risky, apart from having to fill up and the occasional breakdown.
  • No pubs until stage 4 - 10 May

    You heard it here first.

    Where did you read that?
    I am projecting it on a three week cycle

    8 March - schools back (confirmed)
    29 March - limited outside meetings (confirmed)
    19 April, three weeks later - non essential retail, virtually nailed on
    10 May, pubs as described
    31 May (Stage 5) - some further relaxations eg sporting events.

    Outdoor pubs isn't going to happen on 19 April -not viable
    Specifically on the sporting events, there was that rumour the other night that the Government was thinking of calling Uefa and offering to take on the postponed Euro2020 (the tournament which was, if we recall, meant to be taking place in locations all across the continent, most of which will probably still be in much worse shape than we are come the Summer.) It was re-scheduled to begin on June 11th.

    I think it's something like the first time since the extinction of the dinosaurs that Wales, Scotland and England have all qualified for the same major football tournament, so the timing certainly couldn't be any better. If the Government can get the exit from lockdown right then there might actually be some spectators allowed, even if they are all us.
    That’s a great point: when was the last time all three qualified? Has it ever happened before? I’m pretty sure it’s never happened in my lifetime - and I’m in my mid-forties.
    Wales won the play-off and qualified for the first time. With Northern Ireland making its debut, and England and Scotland also qualifying, this World Cup was the only one to feature all four of the United Kingdom's Home Nations.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_FIFA_World_Cup
  • Mortimer said:

    I suppose my big complaint is it doesn't look very much different to what the reopening plan would have looked like if we didn't have vaccines and/or hadn't vaccinated more than a few tens of thousands of folk.

    Bang on.

    This is also the reason why there is going to be widespread flouting.
    It really is surprising there is no opening up of anything for vaccinated people. Why can't, for instance, vaccinated relatives visit vaccinated care home residents? Or meet for a cup of tea? Not only would it reduce non-compliance, it would also incentivise getting the jab amongst hold-out groups.

    Do we know there isn’t? Although admittedly the press speculation doesn’t cite anything. It does rather prompt the question: what are vaccines for? (I know, I know - but in the minds of Joe Public)
    I suspect some politicians as well as the public would be surprised to learn that so far vaccines have been given in order to reduce illness and death, rather than to reduce the spread of infection in the community. That comes further down the JCVI priority list.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    It looks to be erring on the safe side, which is what most people want. The ability of two friends to meet outside will be popular, and the "6 at Easter" may prove to be TOO popular - if there's much flouting, it'll probably start then. But effectively everyone will be limited to day trips as no hospitality or home visits.

    Why school sport has been singled out for special treatment seems mysterious - no social distancing in backetball, and it's not obvious it's a crucial priority. Like the strange exception always given for garden centres, it perhaps reflects the interests of the personal circle of Ministers that they really think these things are more important than, say, meeting in pub gardens.

    Where did you read no hospitality? It seems beer gardens are being considered for April, but maybe that’s press speculation.

    School sports, and children’s sport generally, is absolutely crucial. It’s currently illegal for my 11-year-old son to even have a kick about with his mates in the local park.
  • It looks to be erring on the safe side, which is what most people want. The ability of two friends to meet outside will be popular, and the "6 at Easter" may prove to be TOO popular - if there's much flouting, it'll probably start then. But effectively everyone will be limited to day trips as no hospitality or home visits.

    Why school sport has been singled out for special treatment seems mysterious - no social distancing in backetball, and it's not obvious it's a crucial priority. Like the strange exception always given for garden centres, it perhaps reflects the interests of the personal circle of Ministers that they really think these things are more important than, say, meeting in pub gardens.

    School sports seem entirely reasonable to me. They're limited numbers of children mixing, in the same groups regularly and surely not much more risk than schools open in the first place.

    Plus it's good for the health of children who really have suffered more than most during this pandemic with restrictions for a disease that doesn't even affect them in the first place pretty much.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    No pubs until stage 4 - 10 May

    You heard it here first.

    Where did you read that?
    I am projecting it on a three week cycle

    8 March - schools back (confirmed)
    29 March - limited outside meetings (confirmed)
    19 April, three weeks later - non essential retail, virtually nailed on
    10 May, pubs as described
    31 May (Stage 5) - some further relaxations eg sporting events.

    Outdoor pubs isn't going to happen on 19 April -not viable
    Specifically on the sporting events, there was that rumour the other night that the Government was thinking of calling Uefa and offering to take on the postponed Euro2020 (the tournament which was, if we recall, meant to be taking place in locations all across the continent, most of which will probably still be in much worse shape than we are come the Summer.) It was re-scheduled to begin on June 11th.

    I think it's something like the first time since the extinction of the dinosaurs that Wales, Scotland and England have all qualified for the same major football tournament, so the timing certainly couldn't be any better. If the Government can get the exit from lockdown right then there might actually be some spectators allowed, even if they are all us.
    That’s a great point: when was the last time all three qualified? Has it ever happened before? I’m pretty sure it’s never happened in my lifetime - and I’m in my mid-forties.
    Wales won the play-off and qualified for the first time. With Northern Ireland making its debut, and England and Scotland also qualifying, this World Cup was the only one to feature all four of the United Kingdom's Home Nations.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_FIFA_World_Cup
    Wow, so it hasn’t happened since 58. That’s quite something. Thanks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    edited February 2021
    O/T

    One of the worst marketing disasters of all time, from Coca Cola in 2004:

    "Things continued to go wrong for Coke when they launched their online marketing campaign and began advertising Dasani as being “full of spunk”, “Bottled spunk”, and that you “Can’t live without spunk“, causing even more widespread mockery from the public and media. You see, in the UK, spunk is slang for semen… This was even more humourous given that many of the advertising images featured models, who apparently never learned to drink water properly, splashing Dasani all over their faces. Coca-Cola also insisted in their marketing that this particular “spunk” was something you can “enjoy… at home, at the gym, at work and in between” and that it is “vitally refreshing and abundantly available” and is a “way of everyday life”."

    http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2016/05/time-coca-cola-tried-sell-bottled-tap-water-england-hilarity-ensued/

    Just been watching a recent video about this on Tom Scott's informative YouTube channel.
  • Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    One of the worst marketing disasters of all time, from Coca Cola in 2004:

    "Things continued to go wrong for Coke when they launched their online marketing campaign and began advertising Dasani as being “full of spunk”, “Bottled spunk”, and that you “Can’t live without spunk“, causing even more widespread mockery from the public and media. You see, in the UK, spunk is slang for semen… This was even more humourous given that many of the advertising images featured models, who apparently never learned to drink water properly, splashing Dasani all over their faces. Coca-Cola also insisted in their marketing that this particular “spunk” was something you can “enjoy… at home, at the gym, at work and in between” and that it is “vitally refreshing and abundantly available” and is a “way of everyday life”."

    http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2016/05/time-coca-cola-tried-sell-bottled-tap-water-england-hilarity-ensued/

    Just been watching a recent video about this on Tom Scott's informative YouTube channel.

    Peckham Spring....
  • Given all anybody is talking about this weekend is what will the release the Kraken rules be, what was the point of Starmer's "BIG RELAUNCH" this week? Nobody is talking about his Brit Bond etc.

    Good news for Skyr then.

    It was a speech to say "please don't forget me, I still exist".

    People talking about an idea as crazy as Labour's BritBonds wouldn't win anyone over anyway so best not have people thinking through the details too much.
    Be prepared to reverse ferret when it becomes government policy in a few months. Labour's crazy idea is little more than a humdrum tweak to National Savings. And if Starmer's said it, chances are it is not even original but has already been floating around the Treasury tea-rooms Zoom calls for weeks.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    It looks to be erring on the safe side, which is what most people want. The ability of two friends to meet outside will be popular, and the "6 at Easter" may prove to be TOO popular - if there's much flouting, it'll probably start then. But effectively everyone will be limited to day trips as no hospitality or home visits.

    Why school sport has been singled out for special treatment seems mysterious - no social distancing in backetball, and it's not obvious it's a crucial priority. Like the strange exception always given for garden centres, it perhaps reflects the interests of the personal circle of Ministers that they really think these things are more important than, say, meeting in pub gardens.

    You don't have teenage kids do you.....all my circle of friends do, and the little plague monsters are crawling the walls and the parents are desperate for them to run off some of that pent up energy.

    Its really bad for the kids to just do a few hours of school, then straight back for 8hrs of playing Fortnite every night, both from a physical, mental and societal aspects.
    Spot on. It’s Call of Duty / Minecraft / Battlefront and very little exercise. Children need sport.
  • No pubs until stage 4 - 10 May

    You heard it here first.

    Where did you read that?
    I am projecting it on a three week cycle

    8 March - schools back (confirmed)
    29 March - limited outside meetings (confirmed)
    19 April, three weeks later - non essential retail, virtually nailed on
    10 May, pubs as described
    31 May (Stage 5) - some further relaxations eg sporting events.

    Outdoor pubs isn't going to happen on 19 April -not viable
    Specifically on the sporting events, there was that rumour the other night that the Government was thinking of calling Uefa and offering to take on the postponed Euro2020 (the tournament which was, if we recall, meant to be taking place in locations all across the continent, most of which will probably still be in much worse shape than we are come the Summer.) It was re-scheduled to begin on June 11th.

    I think it's something like the first time since the extinction of the dinosaurs that Wales, Scotland and England have all qualified for the same major football tournament, so the timing certainly couldn't be any better. If the Government can get the exit from lockdown right then there might actually be some spectators allowed, even if they are all us.
    That’s a great point: when was the last time all three qualified? Has it ever happened before? I’m pretty sure it’s never happened in my lifetime - and I’m in my mid-forties.
    Wales won the play-off and qualified for the first time. With Northern Ireland making its debut, and England and Scotland also qualifying, this World Cup was the only one to feature all four of the United Kingdom's Home Nations.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_FIFA_World_Cup
    Wow, so it hasn’t happened since 58. That’s quite something. Thanks.
    1982WC England, Scotland, Northern Ireland
    1986WC England, Scotland, Northern Ireland
    1990WC England, Scotland, Republic Ireland
    2016EC England, Wales, Northern Ireland, Republic Ireland
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877

    Given all anybody is talking about this weekend is what will the release the Kraken rules be, what was the point of Starmer's "BIG RELAUNCH" this week? Nobody is talking about his Brit Bond etc.

    Good news for Skyr then.

    It was a speech to say "please don't forget me, I still exist".

    People talking about an idea as crazy as Labour's BritBonds wouldn't win anyone over anyway so best not have people thinking through the details too much.
    Be prepared to reverse ferret when it becomes government policy in a few months. Labour's crazy idea is little more than a humdrum tweak to National Savings. And if Starmer's said it, chances are it is not even original but has already been floating around the Treasury tea-rooms Zoom calls for weeks.
    Any government with that policy deserves to be demasculated with extreme predjudice. They would have to borrow money to pay savings rates to attract people in and even then it wouldnt be the poor investing it would be the people with isa's
  • vibrate the vole, volunteer the vixen, vaccinate the vicuña
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    No pubs until stage 4 - 10 May

    You heard it here first.

    Where did you read that?
    I am projecting it on a three week cycle

    8 March - schools back (confirmed)
    29 March - limited outside meetings (confirmed)
    19 April, three weeks later - non essential retail, virtually nailed on
    10 May, pubs as described
    31 May (Stage 5) - some further relaxations eg sporting events.

    Outdoor pubs isn't going to happen on 19 April -not viable
    Specifically on the sporting events, there was that rumour the other night that the Government was thinking of calling Uefa and offering to take on the postponed Euro2020 (the tournament which was, if we recall, meant to be taking place in locations all across the continent, most of which will probably still be in much worse shape than we are come the Summer.) It was re-scheduled to begin on June 11th.

    I think it's something like the first time since the extinction of the dinosaurs that Wales, Scotland and England have all qualified for the same major football tournament, so the timing certainly couldn't be any better. If the Government can get the exit from lockdown right then there might actually be some spectators allowed, even if they are all us.
    That’s a great point: when was the last time all three qualified? Has it ever happened before? I’m pretty sure it’s never happened in my lifetime - and I’m in my mid-forties.
    Wales won the play-off and qualified for the first time. With Northern Ireland making its debut, and England and Scotland also qualifying, this World Cup was the only one to feature all four of the United Kingdom's Home Nations.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_FIFA_World_Cup
    Wow, so it hasn’t happened since 58. That’s quite something. Thanks.
    1982WC England, Scotland, Northern Ireland
    1986WC England, Scotland, Northern Ireland
    1990WC England, Scotland, Republic Ireland
    2016EC England, Wales, Northern Ireland, Republic Ireland
    But you have to go back to the 1950s to find a tournament where all three countries on Great Britain specifically qualified. 2021 is extraordinary in that regard.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Given all anybody is talking about this weekend is what will the release the Kraken rules be, what was the point of Starmer's "BIG RELAUNCH" this week? Nobody is talking about his Brit Bond etc.

    Good news for Skyr then.

    It was a speech to say "please don't forget me, I still exist".

    People talking about an idea as crazy as Labour's BritBonds wouldn't win anyone over anyway so best not have people thinking through the details too much.
    Be prepared to reverse ferret when it becomes government policy in a few months. Labour's crazy idea is little more than a humdrum tweak to National Savings. And if Starmer's said it, chances are it is not even original but has already been floating around the Treasury tea-rooms Zoom calls for weeks.
    It seems as though ideas circulate around the Treasury tea-rooms Zoom calls for weeks or amongst SKS' s team, or whatever. Everyone ignores them.

    Finally, word reaches Tony. He pinches it.

    It is published as a "Research Note of the Blair Foundation", and the idea is lauded as the work of a great genius.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021

    It looks to be erring on the safe side, which is what most people want. The ability of two friends to meet outside will be popular, and the "6 at Easter" may prove to be TOO popular - if there's much flouting, it'll probably start then. But effectively everyone will be limited to day trips as no hospitality or home visits.

    Why school sport has been singled out for special treatment seems mysterious - no social distancing in backetball, and it's not obvious it's a crucial priority. Like the strange exception always given for garden centres, it perhaps reflects the interests of the personal circle of Ministers that they really think these things are more important than, say, meeting in pub gardens.

    You don't have teenage kids do you.....all my circle of friends do, and the little plague monsters are crawling the walls and the parents are desperate for them to run off some of that pent up energy.

    Its really bad for the kids to just do a few hours of school, then straight back for 8hrs of playing Fortnite every night, both from a physical, mental and societal aspects.
    Spot on. It’s Call of Duty / Minecraft / Battlefront and very little exercise. Children need sport.
    It must have be far worse this time around as well, because really not possible to go outside and exercise...snow, rain, very little light....and that was just my experience on Zwift indoor cycling app.
  • Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    One of the worst marketing disasters of all time, from Coca Cola in 2004:

    "Things continued to go wrong for Coke when they launched their online marketing campaign and began advertising Dasani as being “full of spunk”, “Bottled spunk”, and that you “Can’t live without spunk“, causing even more widespread mockery from the public and media. You see, in the UK, spunk is slang for semen… This was even more humourous given that many of the advertising images featured models, who apparently never learned to drink water properly, splashing Dasani all over their faces. Coca-Cola also insisted in their marketing that this particular “spunk” was something you can “enjoy… at home, at the gym, at work and in between” and that it is “vitally refreshing and abundantly available” and is a “way of everyday life”."

    http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2016/05/time-coca-cola-tried-sell-bottled-tap-water-england-hilarity-ensued/

    Just been watching a recent video about this on Tom Scott's informative YouTube channel.

    A brilliant video on an excellent channel, but while we are comparing Youtube channels with proper broadcasters, I'm fairly confident the BBC would have retaken that last shot with the lorry rather than merely sticking up a warning.

    As someone who spends far too much time on the platform, let me issue a plea to Youtubers to research any pronunciations they are unsure of, and occasionally shout "take 2".

    Here's the link to Tom Scott's Dasani video.
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=wD79NZroV88
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    No pubs until stage 4 - 10 May

    You heard it here first.

    Where did you read that?
    I am projecting it on a three week cycle

    8 March - schools back (confirmed)
    29 March - limited outside meetings (confirmed)
    19 April, three weeks later - non essential retail, virtually nailed on
    10 May, pubs as described
    31 May (Stage 5) - some further relaxations eg sporting events.

    Outdoor pubs isn't going to happen on 19 April -not viable
    Specifically on the sporting events, there was that rumour the other night that the Government was thinking of calling Uefa and offering to take on the postponed Euro2020 (the tournament which was, if we recall, meant to be taking place in locations all across the continent, most of which will probably still be in much worse shape than we are come the Summer.) It was re-scheduled to begin on June 11th.

    I think it's something like the first time since the extinction of the dinosaurs that Wales, Scotland and England have all qualified for the same major football tournament, so the timing certainly couldn't be any better. If the Government can get the exit from lockdown right then there might actually be some spectators allowed, even if they are all us.
    That’s a great point: when was the last time all three qualified? Has it ever happened before? I’m pretty sure it’s never happened in my lifetime - and I’m in my mid-forties.
    Wales won the play-off and qualified for the first time. With Northern Ireland making its debut, and England and Scotland also qualifying, this World Cup was the only one to feature all four of the United Kingdom's Home Nations.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_FIFA_World_Cup
    Hopefully it will never happen again!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    One of the worst marketing disasters of all time, from Coca Cola in 2004:

    "Things continued to go wrong for Coke when they launched their online marketing campaign and began advertising Dasani as being “full of spunk”, “Bottled spunk”, and that you “Can’t live without spunk“, causing even more widespread mockery from the public and media. You see, in the UK, spunk is slang for semen… This was even more humourous given that many of the advertising images featured models, who apparently never learned to drink water properly, splashing Dasani all over their faces. Coca-Cola also insisted in their marketing that this particular “spunk” was something you can “enjoy… at home, at the gym, at work and in between” and that it is “vitally refreshing and abundantly available” and is a “way of everyday life”."

    http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2016/05/time-coca-cola-tried-sell-bottled-tap-water-england-hilarity-ensued/

    Just been watching a recent video about this on Tom Scott's informative YouTube channel.

    A brilliant video on an excellent channel, but while we are comparing Youtube channels with proper broadcasters, I'm fairly confident the BBC would have retaken that last shot with the lorry rather than merely sticking up a warning.

    As someone who spends far too much time on the platform, let me issue a plea to Youtubers to research any pronunciations they are unsure of, and occasionally shout "take 2".

    Here's the link to Tom Scott's Dasani video.
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=wD79NZroV88
    Why insult youtube by comparing it to the bbc, few video's there aim for such a low bar as bbc production values or lack of research
  • vibrate the vole, volunteer the vixen, vaccinate the vicuña

    Are you going up in alphabetical order by days?

    Yesterday you did u's I think so just twigged is that it?

    Will we get wodger the wabbit or something like that tomorrow?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,695
    Looks like Australia is infested with anti-vaxxers too.
    https://twitter.com/matt_armstrong/status/1363460099096870912?s=21
  • Looks like Australia is infested with anti-vaxxers too.
    /twitter.com/matt_armstrong/status/1363460099096870912?s=21

    I always wonder, are all these nutters anti all drugs e.g. when a new cancer drug comes out, or it is specifically limited to vaccines?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    It looks to be erring on the safe side, which is what most people want. The ability of two friends to meet outside will be popular, and the "6 at Easter" may prove to be TOO popular - if there's much flouting, it'll probably start then. But effectively everyone will be limited to day trips as no hospitality or home visits.

    Why school sport has been singled out for special treatment seems mysterious - no social distancing in backetball, and it's not obvious it's a crucial priority. Like the strange exception always given for garden centres, it perhaps reflects the interests of the personal circle of Ministers that they really think these things are more important than, say, meeting in pub gardens.

    You don't have teenage kids do you.....all my circle of friends do, and the little plague monsters are crawling the walls and the parents are desperate for them to run off some of that pent up energy.

    Its really bad for the kids to just do a few hours of school, then straight back for 8hrs of playing Fortnite every night, both from a physical, mental and societal aspects.
    Spot on. It’s Call of Duty / Minecraft / Battlefront and very little exercise. Children need sport.
    It must have be far worse this time around as well, because really not possible to go outside and exercise...snow, rain, very little light....and that was just my experience on Zwift indoor cycling app.
    We had quite a bit of snow and went tobogganing a few days, which was great. Otherwise yes, it’s not been east to get out. Our usual mountain biking trails were mostly mud!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
    Java...java..... isn't that an instant ban hammer offence on PB....only python is allowed.

    FYI...for us geeks out there that use a lot of python / numpy, JAX absolutely rocks for fast prototyping on the GPU.
    Python? I mean, it's okay if you want to pretend that you are in the Early Learning Centre...

    --AS
    Python is beautiful, an incredibly well designed language that enables people to write code that is easy(-ish) to read.
    It also enables quants to move from writing 10ks of lines of broken, untested C++ to writing 10ks of lines of broken, untested Python. While allowing them to believe that things have improved.
    While that's true, Python's unittest module at least encourages proper TDD.
  • Given all anybody is talking about this weekend is what will the release the Kraken rules be, what was the point of Starmer's "BIG RELAUNCH" this week? Nobody is talking about his Brit Bond etc.

    Good news for Skyr then.

    It was a speech to say "please don't forget me, I still exist".

    People talking about an idea as crazy as Labour's BritBonds wouldn't win anyone over anyway so best not have people thinking through the details too much.
    Be prepared to reverse ferret when it becomes government policy in a few months. Labour's crazy idea is little more than a humdrum tweak to National Savings. And if Starmer's said it, chances are it is not even original but has already been floating around the Treasury tea-rooms Zoom calls for weeks.
    If the government did that policy in these circumstances I would oppose it.

    High interest NS&I is not something to be especially promoting right now when the government is essentially borrowing for free.

    If people are getting good returns from their savings bonds you'd need to answer the question where they're coming from? Ultimately the taxpayer.

    Why would we be taxing people in order to pay back people we are borrowing from at a higher rate than we could borrow at if we weren't borrowing from them in the first place? It almost makes my brain hurt asking that question. 😟
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    justin124 said:

    No pubs until stage 4 - 10 May

    You heard it here first.

    Where did you read that?
    I am projecting it on a three week cycle

    8 March - schools back (confirmed)
    29 March - limited outside meetings (confirmed)
    19 April, three weeks later - non essential retail, virtually nailed on
    10 May, pubs as described
    31 May (Stage 5) - some further relaxations eg sporting events.

    Outdoor pubs isn't going to happen on 19 April -not viable
    Specifically on the sporting events, there was that rumour the other night that the Government was thinking of calling Uefa and offering to take on the postponed Euro2020 (the tournament which was, if we recall, meant to be taking place in locations all across the continent, most of which will probably still be in much worse shape than we are come the Summer.) It was re-scheduled to begin on June 11th.

    I think it's something like the first time since the extinction of the dinosaurs that Wales, Scotland and England have all qualified for the same major football tournament, so the timing certainly couldn't be any better. If the Government can get the exit from lockdown right then there might actually be some spectators allowed, even if they are all us.
    That’s a great point: when was the last time all three qualified? Has it ever happened before? I’m pretty sure it’s never happened in my lifetime - and I’m in my mid-forties.
    Wales won the play-off and qualified for the first time. With Northern Ireland making its debut, and England and Scotland also qualifying, this World Cup was the only one to feature all four of the United Kingdom's Home Nations.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_FIFA_World_Cup
    Hopefully it will never happen again!
    Why not? I’d rather have ‘local’ rivals there than not.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    Given all anybody is talking about this weekend is what will the release the Kraken rules be, what was the point of Starmer's "BIG RELAUNCH" this week? Nobody is talking about his Brit Bond etc.

    Good news for Skyr then.

    It was a speech to say "please don't forget me, I still exist".

    People talking about an idea as crazy as Labour's BritBonds wouldn't win anyone over anyway so best not have people thinking through the details too much.
    Be prepared to reverse ferret when it becomes government policy in a few months. Labour's crazy idea is little more than a humdrum tweak to National Savings. And if Starmer's said it, chances are it is not even original but has already been floating around the Treasury tea-rooms Zoom calls for weeks.
    If the government did that policy in these circumstances I would oppose it.

    High interest NS&I is not something to be especially promoting right now when the government is essentially borrowing for free.

    If people are getting good returns from their savings bonds you'd need to answer the question where they're coming from? Ultimately the taxpayer.

    Why would we be taxing people in order to pay back people we are borrowing from at a higher rate than we could borrow at if we weren't borrowing from them in the first place? It almost makes my brain hurt asking that question. 😟
    If your brain is hurting, may I suggest you go for a bit of a lie down.

    It might not be Starmer's bonds that are fatiguing you. It could be that instead of posting anti Labour and LD propanganda on here 24/7 you need some sleep. Good night.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    edited February 2021

    It looks to be erring on the safe side, which is what most people want. The ability of two friends to meet outside will be popular, and the "6 at Easter" may prove to be TOO popular - if there's much flouting, it'll probably start then. But effectively everyone will be limited to day trips as no hospitality or home visits.

    Why school sport has been singled out for special treatment seems mysterious - no social distancing in backetball, and it's not obvious it's a crucial priority. Like the strange exception always given for garden centres, it perhaps reflects the interests of the personal circle of Ministers that they really think these things are more important than, say, meeting in pub gardens.

    You don't have teenage kids do you.....all my circle of friends do, and the little plague monsters are crawling the walls and the parents are desperate for them to run off some of that pent up energy.

    Its really bad for the kids to just do a few hours of school, then straight back for 8hrs of playing Fortnite every night, both from a physical, mental and societal aspects.
    Fair enough - you're right, I don't have kids.

    A curiosity in that context is that I was advised (after enquiring for a resident in my ward who has an autistic son who is suffering in lockdown) that lots of computer gaming is one way to help, because that offers a controlled social environment - you interact with a bunch of strangers, but you don't have to see them and you're all working within the framework of the game rules. For some autistic (or just shy) kids, that's a lifesaver.

    Investigating other options for the lady, I was impressed by how creative the help is. For instance, there's the Giveusashout option (https://giveusashout.org/get-help/) - this is exclusively by text message, and they're happy to hear from any young people and swap messages back and forth. Autistic kids are used to using their phones for texts like everyone else, and it's a non-threatening way to interact.

    But none of that is arguing for the general case - I'm sure you're right for most kids.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,823

    It looks to be erring on the safe side, which is what most people want. The ability of two friends to meet outside will be popular, and the "6 at Easter" may prove to be TOO popular - if there's much flouting, it'll probably start then. But effectively everyone will be limited to day trips as no hospitality or home visits.

    Why school sport has been singled out for special treatment seems mysterious - no social distancing in backetball, and it's not obvious it's a crucial priority. Like the strange exception always given for garden centres, it perhaps reflects the interests of the personal circle of Ministers that they really think these things are more important than, say, meeting in pub gardens.

    You don't have teenage kids do you.....all my circle of friends do, and the little plague monsters are crawling the walls and the parents are desperate for them to run off some of that pent up energy.

    Its really bad for the kids to just do a few hours of school, then straight back for 8hrs of playing Fortnite every night, both from a physical, mental and societal aspects.
    Fair enough - you're right, I don't have kids.

    A curiosity in that context is that I was advised (after enquiring for a resident in my ward who has an autistic son who is suffering in lockdown) that lots of computer gaming is one way to help, because that offers a controlled social environment - you interact with a bunch of strangers, but you don't have to see them and you're all working within the framework of the game rules. For some autistic (or just shy) kids, that's a lifesaver.

    Investigating other options for the lady, I was impressed by how creative the help is. For instance, there's the Giveusashout option (https://giveusashout.org/get-help/) - this is exclusively by text message, and they're happy to hear from any young people and swap messages back and forth. Autistic kids are used to using their phones for texts like everyone else, and it's a non-threatening way to interact.

    But none of that is arguing for the general case - I'm sure you're right for most kids.
    My number 1 priority is getting schools back open.

    My number 2 priority is children's sports. It just seems so low-risk and high reward. I have spent the last year watching the spark slowly fade out of my children: all the activities they used to enjoy closed. Over-simplification, but kids don't get it, and don't spread it. (Not primary school kids, anyway).

    My number 3 priority: allowing young children to play together outside of school - at least if they're already at school together. My youngest has spent about 20% of her life in a state where it is illegal for her to play with other children apart from her older sisters outside of school.

    The obsession with garden centres isn't that we're all anxious to go to the garden centre - though it would be nice - but that they seem such low risk environments. Largely outside, socially distanced.

    Actually, on reflection, my number 1 priority would be seeing some sort of cost-benefit analysis of the policies we put in place, rather than being entirely driven by minimising spread of Covid.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588

    Looks like Australia is infested with anti-vaxxers too.
    https://twitter.com/matt_armstrong/status/1363460099096870912?s=21

    Or maybe Djokovic fans, as pointed out on here earlier.
  • Artist Edvard Munch wrote the mysterious graffiti on his painting of The Scream, infrared scans have shown.

    A small and barely visible sentence written on one of the world's most well-known paintings has been the cause of much conjecture in the art world.

    The words, "Can only have been painted by a madman", are inscribed in pencil in the top left-hand corner.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-56127530
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Given all anybody is talking about this weekend is what will the release the Kraken rules be, what was the point of Starmer's "BIG RELAUNCH" this week? Nobody is talking about his Brit Bond etc.

    Good news for Skyr then.

    It was a speech to say "please don't forget me, I still exist".

    People talking about an idea as crazy as Labour's BritBonds wouldn't win anyone over anyway so best not have people thinking through the details too much.
    Be prepared to reverse ferret when it becomes government policy in a few months. Labour's crazy idea is little more than a humdrum tweak to National Savings. And if Starmer's said it, chances are it is not even original but has already been floating around the Treasury tea-rooms Zoom calls for weeks.
    If the government did that policy in these circumstances I would oppose it.

    High interest NS&I is not something to be especially promoting right now when the government is essentially borrowing for free.

    If people are getting good returns from their savings bonds you'd need to answer the question where they're coming from? Ultimately the taxpayer.

    Why would we be taxing people in order to pay back people we are borrowing from at a higher rate than we could borrow at if we weren't borrowing from them in the first place? It almost makes my brain hurt asking that question. 😟
    It’s what NS&I did last year when the government told them to bring in more money. Hence, for a while, they offered rates you could call world beating. Then, suddenly, they didn’t need money any more, and lots of inertia investors now hold accounts paying 0.01%.

    The rumour is that the government is already looking at the special bond idea, and that Starmer is once again trying to jump ahead.
  • IanB2 said:

    Given all anybody is talking about this weekend is what will the release the Kraken rules be, what was the point of Starmer's "BIG RELAUNCH" this week? Nobody is talking about his Brit Bond etc.

    Good news for Skyr then.

    It was a speech to say "please don't forget me, I still exist".

    People talking about an idea as crazy as Labour's BritBonds wouldn't win anyone over anyway so best not have people thinking through the details too much.
    Be prepared to reverse ferret when it becomes government policy in a few months. Labour's crazy idea is little more than a humdrum tweak to National Savings. And if Starmer's said it, chances are it is not even original but has already been floating around the Treasury tea-rooms Zoom calls for weeks.
    If the government did that policy in these circumstances I would oppose it.

    High interest NS&I is not something to be especially promoting right now when the government is essentially borrowing for free.

    If people are getting good returns from their savings bonds you'd need to answer the question where they're coming from? Ultimately the taxpayer.

    Why would we be taxing people in order to pay back people we are borrowing from at a higher rate than we could borrow at if we weren't borrowing from them in the first place? It almost makes my brain hurt asking that question. 😟
    It’s what NS&I did last year when the government told them to bring in more money. Hence, for a while, they offered rates you could call world beating. Then, suddenly, they didn’t need money any more, and lots of inertia investors now hold accounts paying 0.01%.

    The rumour is that the government is already looking at the special bond idea, and that Starmer is once again trying to jump ahead.
    NS&I seems to be in appalling state at the moment:

    https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/nsandi.com

    1.4 out of 5 rating, with dozens of 1 star reviews each week recently, generally complaining that there is a 1-2 month backlog of withdrawal and account security issues. Completely unacceptable for what the govt promises to be the safest place to leave your money.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    It should be remembered however that too quick an easing off of lockdown will not be popular either, most voters want a cautious approach to easing off lockdown.

    Most likely it will be a gradual process, schools reopening next month along with universities, non-essential shops from April along with pub gardens and pubs reopening their bars indoors and restaurants for indoor dining from May. That way those vaccinated will also be able to use their antibodies and build up immunity by winter without too fast a reopening leading to rapid mutations.

    We don't actually know how long immunity from the current vaccinations will last. I suspect there will need to be around of booster vaccinations in October or November.

    The other imponderable is the rate of vaccination worldwide. It's rare I agree with Boris Johnson but he's right to opine that once we have vaccinated their populations, the wealthier countries need to get to the vaccine to the poorer parts of the world.

    The global economy functions best when the globe itself is open for business and countries/regions which remain closed due to insufficient vaccination impact everywhere else.

    The more interesting question is how you distribute the vaccines

    I could see an argument that instead of giving 100m doses and spreading out to the world you should take - say - Kenya and fully vaccinate them. That gets at least one country working vs a marginal benefit for all
    I'm quite sure that the Government has recently said that it's not in favour of using vaccines as a form of diplomatic leverage (I wonder who they could be talking about?) and will therefore be donating any surplus to COVAX.

    That said, if the Government was to target specific countries then they do have one or two sensible options for prioritisation. One is to go for the Commonwealth Realms (which would allow them to make diplomatically useful sales to Canada, Australia and New Zealand, whilst simultaneously bailing a collection of low and middle income countries.) The other could be Caricom, which covers a relatively modest population, would further please the British Overseas Territories in the region, and most of the members of which are also Commonwealth countries. A third option would be Ireland but I think they'd decline the offer. So, there are choices to be made.
    Agreed - but you’d definitely make the offer to Ireland, with emphasis on maintaining the CTA and the tourism possibilities over the summer.

    If they want to decline it, or if Brussels chooses to decline it on their behalf, then that’s their call.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    It’s quite demoralising to have effectively another 2 months of isolation, at least. I’m not sure what I expected. Sigh.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    This thread has gone to lobby Carrie Symonds....
This discussion has been closed.