The numbers in Scotland are fucking insane to be (partially) bringing schools back.
The positivity rate for Scotland has been scary for weeks.
Something is not right there.
In Lothian cases having been heading upwards for the last few days.
Cases are going up yet schools are going back. Madness.
(that said despite the high positivity rate the ONS estimates still have Scotland with a lower infection rate than England)
AIUI it it’s only the smallest children that are going back though? Who are both low risk in terms of infection/transmission and the ones who most need to be in school?
The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.
It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.
That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
All fine and dandy, except people are expecting their foreign jolly after being locked away for 18 months.
With supply and demand being such, a week in a guesthouse in Skegness will be significantly more than a fortnight including flights to the Rui Resort Hotel in Gran Canaria would normally cost. Red Wallers will be spitting bullets!
To be frank - so freaking what?
It ought to be reasonable to say that the vaccinations in Europe aren't far enough, so its not safe to travel to Europe for vacations this summer - but its safe to have vacations at home and next year we'll be able to have sunny holidays abroad.
At least then people will know what to expect and can make plans.
It's vaccinations in the UK that matter. If people have been vaccinated here, I don't see why they can't go where they like. There may be a one in a million risk of them contracting a so far undetected and dangerous new variant, but that'll always be there, and they might get that in England too.
And people have been imprisoned without charge or trial for far too long.
12 million people going abroad means a dozen "one in a million" chances happening. Then what? Then are we back at square one having a national lockdown next winter?
You won't get that in England as it won't be in England to happen. It could be overseas
Having a holiday in the UK is not "imprisoned without charge or trial" - but people bringing this bastard bug back causing us to return to lockdown again? That would be.
I don't often write this, but yes you are correct.
However, we are not like those post war peasants who took rationing on the chin. Just think back to last summer's holiday destination gamers. They needed a foreign holiday, and if they didn't get one, they will be doubly keen to book this year.
Fortunately stopping people from going on sunshine holidays is relatively easily accomplished. You can just tell them it's illegal (and ideally compel anyone who wants to leave the country to put in for a permit, just to make sure.)
That doesn't stop escape through exploiting the Common Travel Area, assuming that regulations in Ireland are more lax, but it makes it very inconvenient and expensive.
Ultimately, if the public is allowed complete freedom except for no foreign holidays then they'll moan like Hell but they can learn to live with it. The money can be saved, spent on jollies in this country, new clothes, or going down the boozer and getting annihilated, whatever. After what we've all been put through, it's not a serious privation.
The numbers in Scotland are fucking insane to be (partially) bringing schools back.
The positivity rate for Scotland has been scary for weeks.
Something is not right there.
I think it's because Kent COVID has become the dominant strain there. The existing measures are enough to bring down rates of normal COVID down but less effective against the more infectious version. In places like London, SE and East that had big outbreaks in November-January there's a lot of natural immunity among the under 50s population and now we've got vaccine immunity building up in those areas too. Places which didn't have large outbreaks of it don't have the same underlying immunity levels which gives the Kent variant a lot more available hosts to spread into.
I think the vaccine programme will eventually make this less of an issue, but it may need another two months before we reach that stage where enough people are immunised against symptoms that we can reopen in those areas without a surge in cases.
However, the case numbers might not really matter if the vaccine programme has made its way through the hospitalisation prone population already. Again it comes down to that, are people going to end up in hospital or die of COVID. If yes, then we need to keep some level of restrictions to prevent that, if no then we can go ahead with unlocking.
The numbers in Scotland are fucking insane to be (partially) bringing schools back.
The positivity rate for Scotland has been scary for weeks.
Something is not right there.
In Lothian cases having been heading upwards for the last few days.
Cases are going up yet schools are going back. Madness.
(that said despite the high positivity rate the ONS estimates still have Scotland with a lower infection rate than England)
AIUI it it’s only the smallest children that are going back though? Who are both low risk in terms of infection/transmission and the ones who most need to be in school?
If I’m wrong, feel free to correct me.
The worry is R - hospital admissions in Scotland not looking good.....
Opening schools anywhere in the UK will bring R above 1, I think.
The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.
It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.
That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
All fine and dandy, except people are expecting their foreign jolly after being locked away for 18 months.
With supply and demand being such, a week in a guesthouse in Skegness will be significantly more than a fortnight including flights to the Rui Resort Hotel in Gran Canaria would normally cost. Red Wallers will be spitting bullets!
It’s won’t have been 18 months. 18 months ago Covid-19 was snuggled happily in a bat or a pangolin somewhere in China. Some people, Captain Sir Tom before he passed away for example, went on holiday two months ago and many more last summer. I read a public health professor at Brown last November who gave the acute phase of this pandemic an 18-24 month lifespan. Nothing I have seen since makes me doubt that. I don’t think there is the demand for foreign holidays this year we think there is. I’d be delighted if I get to see the new Bond film in Leicester Square and a meal before a few drinks at my club on a night out with the wife. But I’m a long way from a Red Waller.
The numbers in Scotland are fucking insane to be (partially) bringing schools back.
The positivity rate for Scotland has been scary for weeks.
Something is not right there.
In Lothian cases having been heading upwards for the last few days.
Cases are going up yet schools are going back. Madness.
(that said despite the high positivity rate the ONS estimates still have Scotland with a lower infection rate than England)
AIUI it it’s only the smallest children that are going back though? Who are both low risk in terms of infection/transmission and the ones who most need to be in school?
If I’m wrong, feel free to correct me.
The worry is R - hospital admissions in Scotland not looking good.....
Opening schools anywhere in the UK will bring R above 1, I think.
Thanks. Hadn’t seen that. Only the ones that had much lower rates than England.
Perhaps it isn’t a great idea after all on those figures.
The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.
It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.
That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
All fine and dandy, except people are expecting their foreign jolly after being locked away for 18 months.
With supply and demand being such, a week in a guesthouse in Skegness will be significantly more than a fortnight including flights to the Rui Resort Hotel in Gran Canaria would normally cost. Red Wallers will be spitting bullets!
To be frank - so freaking what?
It ought to be reasonable to say that the vaccinations in Europe aren't far enough, so its not safe to travel to Europe for vacations this summer - but its safe to have vacations at home and next year we'll be able to have sunny holidays abroad.
At least then people will know what to expect and can make plans.
It's vaccinations in the UK that matter. If people have been vaccinated here, I don't see why they can't go where they like. There may be a one in a million risk of them contracting a so far undetected and dangerous new variant, but that'll always be there, and they might get that in England too.
And people have been imprisoned without charge or trial for far too long.
12 million people going abroad means a dozen "one in a million" chances happening. Then what? Then are we back at square one having a national lockdown next winter?
You won't get that in England as it won't be in England to happen. It could be overseas
Having a holiday in the UK is not "imprisoned without charge or trial" - but people bringing this bastard bug back causing us to return to lockdown again? That would be.
I don't often write this, but yes you are correct.
However, we are not like those post war peasants who took rationing on the chin. Just think back to last summer's holiday destination gamers. They needed a foreign holiday, and if they didn't get one, they will be doubly keen to book this year.
Fortunately stopping people from going on sunshine holidays is relatively easily accomplished. You can just tell them it's illegal (and ideally compel anyone who wants to leave the country to put in for a permit, just to make sure.)
That doesn't stop escape through exploiting the Common Travel Area, assuming that regulations in Ireland are more lax, but it makes it very inconvenient and expensive.
Ultimately, if the public is allowed complete freedom except for no foreign holidays then they'll moan like Hell but they can learn to live with it. The money can be saved, spent on jollies in this country, new clothes, or going down the boozer and getting annihilated, whatever. After what we've all been put through, it's not a serious privation.
Don't look at me. I've got Porthcawl and Barry Island on my doorstep, so I'm already spoilt for choice.
Assuming pubs will be open is a giant leap of faith, if you don't mind me saying so.
It should be remembered however that too quick an easing off of lockdown will not be popular either, most voters want a cautious approach to easing off lockdown.
Most likely it will be a gradual process, schools reopening next month along with universities, non-essential shops from April along with pub gardens and pubs reopening their bars indoors and restaurants for indoor dining from May. That way those vaccinated will also be able to use their antibodies and build up immunity by winter without too fast a reopening leading to rapid mutations.
We don't actually know how long immunity from the current vaccinations will last. I suspect there will need to be around of booster vaccinations in October or November.
The other imponderable is the rate of vaccination worldwide. It's rare I agree with Boris Johnson but he's right to opine that once we have vaccinated their populations, the wealthier countries need to get to the vaccine to the poorer parts of the world.
The global economy functions best when the globe itself is open for business and countries/regions which remain closed due to insufficient vaccination impact everywhere else.
Given the very low numbers being confirmed as twice infected with Covid, combined with the strong effect of the vaccines, I suspect any autumn programme would only be needed to combat a specific mutant or mutants. I am pretty optimistic for fairly lengthy protection from the vaccine. An anecdote for this. My colleague, definite Covid case from March 2020, mounted a pretty strong response on vaccination 10 days ago (aching joints, etc feeling just like the virus first time round, but short duration). That’s 11 months and giving a good response from just an infection.
The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.
It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.
That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
All fine and dandy, except people are expecting their foreign jolly after being locked away for 18 months.
With supply and demand being such, a week in a guesthouse in Skegness will be significantly more than a fortnight including flights to the Rui Resort Hotel in Gran Canaria would normally cost. Red Wallers will be spitting bullets!
To be frank - so freaking what?
It ought to be reasonable to say that the vaccinations in Europe aren't far enough, so its not safe to travel to Europe for vacations this summer - but its safe to have vacations at home and next year we'll be able to have sunny holidays abroad.
At least then people will know what to expect and can make plans.
It's vaccinations in the UK that matter. If people have been vaccinated here, I don't see why they can't go where they like. There may be a one in a million risk of them contracting a so far undetected and dangerous new variant, but that'll always be there, and they might get that in England too.
And people have been imprisoned without charge or trial for far too long.
12 million people going abroad means a dozen "one in a million" chances happening. Then what? Then are we back at square one having a national lockdown next winter?
You won't get that in England as it won't be in England to happen. It could be overseas
Having a holiday in the UK is not "imprisoned without charge or trial" - but people bringing this bastard bug back causing us to return to lockdown again? That would be.
I don't often write this, but yes you are correct.
However, we are not like those post war peasants who took rationing on the chin. Just think back to last summer's holiday destination gamers. They needed a foreign holiday, and if they didn't get one, they will be doubly keen to book this year.
Fortunately stopping people from going on sunshine holidays is relatively easily accomplished. You can just tell them it's illegal (and ideally compel anyone who wants to leave the country to put in for a permit, just to make sure.)
That doesn't stop escape through exploiting the Common Travel Area, assuming that regulations in Ireland are more lax, but it makes it very inconvenient and expensive.
Ultimately, if the public is allowed complete freedom except for no foreign holidays then they'll moan like Hell but they can learn to live with it. The money can be saved, spent on jollies in this country, new clothes, or going down the boozer and getting annihilated, whatever. After what we've all been put through, it's not a serious privation.
Quite a blinkered view to think the only reason people want to travel overseas is only to go on a jolly. How many people living in Britain today have close family overseas? How many are running businesses that are scraping to survive during the travel embargo? Even so, what business is it of yours who travels and why?
Pre covid we didn’t vet who came to the country or where our residents went, in case they brought in a novel virus. Even when it was very fucking clear in late January 2020 that doing so was probably a good idea because there was a clear and live threat.
For how long do you intend to separate international families under pain of criminal penalty, just in case something something virus mutation?
Take a breath, get some perspective. We used to travel internationally just fine. Once the vaccine programme has “protected the NHS” we should not hesitate in doing so again.
It should be remembered however that too quick an easing off of lockdown will not be popular either, most voters want a cautious approach to easing off lockdown.
Most likely it will be a gradual process, schools reopening next month along with universities, non-essential shops from April along with pub gardens and pubs reopening their bars indoors and restaurants for indoor dining from May. That way those vaccinated will also be able to use their antibodies and build up immunity by winter without too fast a reopening leading to rapid mutations.
We don't actually know how long immunity from the current vaccinations will last. I suspect there will need to be around of booster vaccinations in October or November.
The other imponderable is the rate of vaccination worldwide. It's rare I agree with Boris Johnson but he's right to opine that once we have vaccinated their populations, the wealthier countries need to get to the vaccine to the poorer parts of the world.
The global economy functions best when the globe itself is open for business and countries/regions which remain closed due to insufficient vaccination impact everywhere else.
Given the very low numbers being confirmed as twice infected with Covid, combined with the strong effect of the vaccines, I suspect any autumn programme would only be needed to combat a specific mutant or mutants. I am pretty optimistic for fairly lengthy protection from the vaccine. An anecdote for this. My colleague, definite Covid case from March 2020, mounted a pretty strong response on vaccination 10 days ago (aching joints, etc feeling just like the virus first time round, but short duration). That’s 11 months and giving a good response from just an infection.
Those who got SARS and recovered showed a significant immune response some 15 years on. I read somewhere that in 2009 or thereabouts they tested nonagenarians who had survived the Spanish flu and saw the same.
The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.
It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.
That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
All fine and dandy, except people are expecting their foreign jolly after being locked away for 18 months.
With supply and demand being such, a week in a guesthouse in Skegness will be significantly more than a fortnight including flights to the Rui Resort Hotel in Gran Canaria would normally cost. Red Wallers will be spitting bullets!
To be frank - so freaking what?
It ought to be reasonable to say that the vaccinations in Europe aren't far enough, so its not safe to travel to Europe for vacations this summer - but its safe to have vacations at home and next year we'll be able to have sunny holidays abroad.
At least then people will know what to expect and can make plans.
It's vaccinations in the UK that matter. If people have been vaccinated here, I don't see why they can't go where they like. There may be a one in a million risk of them contracting a so far undetected and dangerous new variant, but that'll always be there, and they might get that in England too.
And people have been imprisoned without charge or trial for far too long.
12 million people going abroad means a dozen "one in a million" chances happening. Then what? Then are we back at square one having a national lockdown next winter?
You won't get that in England as it won't be in England to happen. It could be overseas
Having a holiday in the UK is not "imprisoned without charge or trial" - but people bringing this bastard bug back causing us to return to lockdown again? That would be.
But who will the 12 (or 200) infect?
The point about vaccinations is that it pushes the number of people who can be infected down, and therefore quashes R. Once you have herd immunity, then absent some super variant, there is no room for an imported case to spread.
Now, we clearly need to be careful about said super variants. But watch Israel, their borders (thanks to being a religious hub) are opening up come mid-March (and are already open if you want to go to a wedding or Bah Mitzvah).
If no variants get a hold there after two months of a vaccinated people and open borders, then we can be increasingly comfortable they're not going to arrive.
Just as you can be insufficiently cautious, you can attempt to manage every single risk, and do more harm.
If the super variant is that one in a million then bringing it in a dozen times is not a great idea.
Better to just get on with our lives at home and [politely] blame the Europeans for their failure as to why its not safe to have holidays there this year.
What are the case numbers and hospitalisation figures today compared to the ending of the first lockdown?
The link between the two looks to be broken, the cases are well above what has been modelled from antibody tests done on blood donations and blood samples in May but hospitalisations are about the same as when we first started to unlock.
That's why there's such huge pushback against the scientists trying to make case numbers the key metric rather than hospital numbers. The whole point of the vaccine programme isn't to stop people getting it, it's to stop people from going to hospital if they do get it and from all of the early data we have that is being achieved with immunised groups seeing much larger drop offs in the hospitalisation rate than in non-immunised groups and a much, much faster drop off in the hospitalisation rate than in the first wave for immunised groups despite Kent COVID resulting in much faster spread.
The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.
It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.
Exactly. If it's not deemed safe to open up international travel then the hit will just have to be taken. If the choice is between sunshine holidays followed by lockdown, or no sunshine holidays and no lockdown, then there is no choice.
Next to lockdown, the cost of keeping airlines and tour operators on life support can be paid from loose change.
Hawaii is introducing a "two weeks after your second vaccine dose you can come without quarantine" policy. (You also need to submit a negative Covid test.) That doesn't seem unreasonable.
Seems eminently reasonable. I think Hawaii is about the only American state that's had a reasonable epidemic so far. And it hasn't gone to the hysterical lengths that Australia and New Zealand (or, lately, the UK) have.
But don't forget that's on top of federal restrictions.
Yes, but will certainly encourage & open the door for growing numbers of Americans, esp geezers 65+ and essential workers (health care, public safety, some teachers, grocery workers, "volunteers") who have received their two jabs.
For not only will they qualify (w/ neg Covid test) BUT they will also feel willing, able and above all safe jetting off to the sands of Waikiki. Not all of them, and not all at once. But likely sufficient numbers to prime the Hawaiian tourist economy.
What are the case numbers and hospitalisation figures today compared to the ending of the first lockdown?
The link between the two looks to be broken, the cases are well above what has been modelled from antibody tests done on blood donations and blood samples in May but hospitalisations are about the same as when we first started to unlock.
That's why there's such huge pushback against the scientists trying to make case numbers the key metric rather than hospital numbers. The whole point of the vaccine programme isn't to stop people getting it, it's to stop people from going to hospital if they do get it and from all of the early data we have that is being achieved with immunised groups seeing much larger drop offs in the hospitalisation rate than in non-immunised groups and a much, much faster drop off in the hospitalisation rate than in the first wave for immunised groups despite Kent COVID resulting in much faster spread.
So we're at the highest level and there's talk of easing lockdown?
Or we should no longer be at level 5.....
I'd agree but a competent government would have made that move, there's an argument for level for 4 or 3.
Who says they won't?
The announcement hasn't been made yet and is independently set. Wouldn't surprise me if there's a review scheduled for tomorrow and the PMs decision is pending that.
So we're at the highest level and there's talk of easing lockdown?
We should really be at level 4 at this point, we're at the same point in the hospital numbers as when the government first started easing in May of 2020 and the hospitalisation numbers are dropping faster now than they did in the first lockdown because we have the vaccines.
That's the key difference between now and then, if we unlocked today fully there are around 8m recently recovered plus around 8m immunised with the latter figure rising by around 2.5-3m per week. Last time there were only around 6m recently recovered and no one had vaccine based immunity.
I'm not suggesting we unlock fully, I am suggesting that the situation today isn't comparable to the first wave and the scientists are cynically trying to tie the easing to case numbers knowing that there is no way we're ever going to get case numbers down to anywhere near 1k per day with the amount of testing we do, especially for NHS staff who may get it asymptomatically or get mild symptoms post vaccination.
I have to say I'm getting the same visceral reaction to the unelected SAGE scientists trying to rule by decree as I did to the Eurocrats. That they hold so much power over public life without anyone voting for them or their policies is really starting to grate. Every time one of them goes off and briefs the media about how we should stay in lockdown forever becuase no one should die of anything ever again I want Tory MPs to revolt and knife Boris and Hancock to bring an end to this.
I have to say I'm getting the same visceral reaction to the unelected SAGE scientists trying to rule by decree as I did to the Eurocrats. That they hold so much power over public life without anyone voting for them or their policies is really starting to grate. Every time one of them goes off and briefs the media about how we should stay in lockdown forever becuase no one should die of anything ever again I want Tory MPs to revolt and knife Boris and Hancock to bring an end to this.
I have to say I'm getting the same visceral reaction to the unelected SAGE scientists trying to rule by decree as I did to the Eurocrats. That they hold so much power over public life without anyone voting for them or their policies is really starting to grate. Every time one of them goes off and briefs the media about how we should stay in lockdown forever becuase no one should die of anything ever again I want Tory MPs to revolt and knife Boris and Hancock to bring an end to this.
ICU numbers matter quite a bit too, as that is what stops a hospital functioning, because of heavy staffing, and those being anaesthetists and theatre staff for surge capacity. Few of the ICU patients would fall in immunisation groups.
I have to say I'm getting the same visceral reaction to the unelected SAGE scientists trying to rule by decree as I did to the Eurocrats. That they hold so much power over public life without anyone voting for them or their policies is really starting to grate. Every time one of them goes off and briefs the media about how we should stay in lockdown forever becuase no one should die of anything ever again I want Tory MPs to revolt and knife Boris and Hancock to bring an end to this.
I'm doubt anybody will have to knife Boris and Hancock, they don't want us to be in this dystopian nightmare any more than anyone else does.
I don't know, I think Boris doesn't but Hancock seems completely captured by SAGE and the lockdown ultras.
I think it goes with the territory.
He's responsible for Health and that's quite a portfolio right now, he's not responsible for the economy etc and the rest of the Cabinet need to step up to the plate for that, especially Boris who needs to balance everything up.
Very late to this but I think it is interesting and fair accurate
- You are being unfair by labelling personality/positioning as “the Trump strategy” although he did follow it. Having charisma and being perceived as “on my side” by the voters is a classic winning strategy for all politicians
- Performance is a horrible strategy for an opposition. Essentially, as someone on here called it, it’s a Micawber strategy - something will turn up. Defensive and negative - it only wins if the government screws up
- “Positioning” for a minor party like the LibDems is weak. It works for a regional party like the SNP, but the LibDems just aren’t differentiated from Labour in their SDP mode. They may win some seats based on arch-Rejoiners but it won’t win an election or achieve anything
Conclusion: unless Boris screws up the Tories won the exit election if those strategies remain the same
So we're at the highest level and there's talk of easing lockdown?
Or we should no longer be at level 5.....
I'd agree but a competent government would have made that move, there's an argument for level for 4 or 3.
My guesstimate, is that tomorrow we will see the results of the studies on the effects of the vaccinations so far. This will be used to change the alert level and will be the basis of the plans going forward.
R is currently around 1.
However, based on the vaccination rate, and the effectiveness of vaccination, there may be enough evidence that we are going to de-couple cases from hospitalisation and deaths in the near future.
So we can unlock, contingent on levels of vaccination..
On the subject of ludicrous tunnel projects, why not build a tunnel from Penzance to the Isles of Scilly? 28 miles from Lands End and pace the Faeroes, we could have a new station built under Hugh Town to provide direct access from London and the rest of the UK.
Guaranteed supplies for the islands - no worries if the weather closes down flights or the Scillonian.
From Hugh Town, underground cycle ways or a light railway linking the islands - perhaps a tram to Tresco for the gardens.
Boris will announce a reduction to Level 4 tomorrow.
But no room for complacency. London numbers were poor today for first time in 40 days.
Hmm, on what basis do you say that? I haven't looked into it yet but the hospital numbers from London looked like a continuation of a decent downwards trend and the total number in hospital is down again (now 65% lower than the second wave peak).
ICU numbers matter quite a bit too, as that is what stops a hospital functioning, because of heavy staffing, and those being anaesthetists and theatre staff for surge capacity. Few of the ICU patients would fall in immunisation groups.
What would you say is the mean age of a Covid ICU patient at the moment, and what proportion of them are under fifty years of age?
The upbeat interview Hancock gave to Marr today does set up positive mood music for tomorrow’s announcement. It would be jarring in that context for it to be TOO cautious - but cautious to an extent it will be.
Sunak has yet to announce any extension to furlough - currently due to end on 30 April. The last extension was announced in December. If, and it’s a big if, it was anticipated that the economy would remain substantially closed after 30 April it has to be extended soon for businesses to plan.
Boris will announce a reduction to Level 4 tomorrow.
But no room for complacency. London numbers were poor today for first time in 40 days.
Hmm, on what basis do you say that? I haven't looked into it yet but the hospital numbers from London looked like a continuation of a decent downwards trend and the total number in hospital is down again (now 65% lower than the second wave peak).
Case numbers aren't the key metric in unlocking.
Case numbers have gone up per my source which I can't link to as I am on mobile. I wish I had a flash phone like TSE.
Other numbers like hospitalisations may have improved.
The numbers in Scotland are fucking insane to be (partially) bringing schools back.
The First Minister of Scotland is human, just like the PM. She's under pressure to release the kiddies from prison too.
OTOH, she has built her reputation for handling the whole thing better on the back of cautious decisions.
There's every reason to suppose that she's concluded based on advice that there's probably little harm in letting a limited number of small children back into educational settings, though in practice there is risk attached to any decision and we don't know how big a chance her boffins have told her she's taking. We'll just have to wait and see I suppose.
All of these things are calculated risks.
I think she is probably making the right call given current levels in Scotland, but I think she also may need to be realistic about how many staff will have to be off isolating/shielding at any given point, which will be disruptive.
That’s also true for England, of course.
I suspect she was not expecting the reduction in numbers to stall.
Boris will announce a reduction to Level 4 tomorrow.
But no room for complacency. London numbers were poor today for first time in 40 days.
Hmm, on what basis do you say that? I haven't looked into it yet but the hospital numbers from London looked like a continuation of a decent downwards trend and the total number in hospital is down again (now 65% lower than the second wave peak).
Case numbers aren't the key metric in unlocking.
Case numbers have gone up per my source which I can't link to as I am on mobile. I wish I had a flash phone like TSE.
Other numbers like hospitalisations may have improved.
Boris will announce a reduction to Level 4 tomorrow.
But no room for complacency. London numbers were poor today for first time in 40 days.
Contrarian will be along shortly to inform us "How VERY convenient...."
More and more people are reflecting what @contrarian has been saying for months.
He may or may not have been right in terms of death minimisation but he has always been bang on in terms of the unprecedented restriction of our freedoms and the danger of the scientists overreaching in this respect.
Boris will announce a reduction to Level 4 tomorrow.
But no room for complacency. London numbers were poor today for first time in 40 days.
Hmm, on what basis do you say that? I haven't looked into it yet but the hospital numbers from London looked like a continuation of a decent downwards trend and the total number in hospital is down again (now 65% lower than the second wave peak).
Case numbers aren't the key metric in unlocking.
Case numbers have gone up per my source which I can't link to as I am on mobile. I wish I had a flash phone like TSE.
Other numbers like hospitalisations may have improved.
It should be remembered however that too quick an easing off of lockdown will not be popular either, most voters want a cautious approach to easing off lockdown.
Most likely it will be a gradual process, schools reopening next month along with universities, non-essential shops from April along with pub gardens and pubs reopening their bars indoors and restaurants for indoor dining from May. That way those vaccinated will also be able to use their antibodies and build up immunity by winter without too fast a reopening leading to rapid mutations.
We don't actually know how long immunity from the current vaccinations will last. I suspect there will need to be around of booster vaccinations in October or November.
The other imponderable is the rate of vaccination worldwide. It's rare I agree with Boris Johnson but he's right to opine that once we have vaccinated their populations, the wealthier countries need to get to the vaccine to the poorer parts of the world.
The global economy functions best when the globe itself is open for business and countries/regions which remain closed due to insufficient vaccination impact everywhere else.
The more interesting question is how you distribute the vaccines
I could see an argument that instead of giving 100m doses and spreading out to the world you should take - say - Kenya and fully vaccinate them. That gets at least one country working vs a marginal benefit for all
The last week has unfortunately in my view rather scuppered things:
We had been seeing very, very good falls in cases and in the last week it has almost ground to a halt. Looking at this chart it looks as if things are going to start going upwards again. We will know for certain within a week.
I think that people have seen all the good news recently and have started relaxing themselves and doing things that they weren't a month ago. Everyone just doing one unessential trip adds up to a massive impact.
The other unknown still is whether cases is still the key measure given we have now vaccinated 25% of the population, the most vulnerable 25%. We have already seen in the case numbers that the oldest age groups have decreased the most. At what point does hospital admissions and deaths become more important?
Until a week ago I think Boris was all set to open schools but now it is a more more difficult decision. If it were mere I would say that we would have liked to have opened schools but the fall in cases has stopped in the last week. We will monitor for one more week and make a decision. Everyone has to do their part by really cutting out the unnecessary trips.
The last week has unfortunately in my view rather scuppered things:
We had been seeing very, very good falls in cases and in the last week it has almost ground to a halt. Looking at this chart it looks as if things are going to start going upwards again. We will know for certain within a week.
I think that people have seen all the good news recently and have started relaxing themselves and doing things that they weren't a month ago. Everyone just doing one unessential trip adds up to a massive impact.
The other unknown still is whether cases is still the key measure given we have now vaccinated 25% of the population, the most vulnerable 25%. We have already seen in the case numbers that the oldest age groups have decreased the most. At what point does hospital admissions and deaths become more important?
Until a week ago I think Boris was all set to open schools but now it is a more more difficult decision. If it were mere I would say that we would have liked to have opened schools but the fall in cases has stopped in the last week. We will monitor for one more week and make a decision. Everyone has to do their part by really cutting out the unnecessary trips.
Agreed. I am normally quite a positive person. As a Watford fan I have to be. But I am now feeling a general gloom all round.
So we're at the highest level and there's talk of easing lockdown?
Or we should no longer be at level 5.....
I'd agree but a competent government would have made that move, there's an argument for level for 4 or 3.
My guesstimate, is that tomorrow we will see the results of the studies on the effects of the vaccinations so far. This will be used to change the alert level and will be the basis of the plans going forward.
R is currently around 1.
However, based on the vaccination rate, and the effectiveness of vaccination, there may be enough evidence that we are going to de-couple cases from hospitalisation and deaths in the near future.
So we can unlock, contingent on levels of vaccination..
The decoupling will be gradual. At the moment we've vaccinated something like 50% worth of hospitalisations, at whatever efficacy a single dose of Pfizer or AZ provides, and of course the vaccines take a couple weeks to kick in as well, so the actual reduction in the hospitalisations per cases today will be some way below the headline figure.
Cases currently are down 80% from their peak, while hospitalisations are only down around 60%. That's partly explained by lag, and maybe also partly by less serious cases now being admitted, but the point is, we're nowhere near the link between cases and hospitalisations being broken.
Even when we get down to say 25% of the original hospitalisations per case, that still leaves plenty of scope for a NHS crisis if cases were allowed to run out of control.
@MaxPB, how is your research into the hospitalisation rate looking?
It should be remembered however that too quick an easing off of lockdown will not be popular either, most voters want a cautious approach to easing off lockdown.
Most likely it will be a gradual process, schools reopening next month along with universities, non-essential shops from April along with pub gardens and pubs reopening their bars indoors and restaurants for indoor dining from May. That way those vaccinated will also be able to use their antibodies and build up immunity by winter without too fast a reopening leading to rapid mutations.
We don't actually know how long immunity from the current vaccinations will last. I suspect there will need to be around of booster vaccinations in October or November.
The other imponderable is the rate of vaccination worldwide. It's rare I agree with Boris Johnson but he's right to opine that once we have vaccinated their populations, the wealthier countries need to get to the vaccine to the poorer parts of the world.
The global economy functions best when the globe itself is open for business and countries/regions which remain closed due to insufficient vaccination impact everywhere else.
The more interesting question is how you distribute the vaccines
I could see an argument that instead of giving 100m doses and spreading out to the world you should take - say - Kenya and fully vaccinate them. That gets at least one country working vs a marginal benefit for all
I'm quite sure that the Government has recently said that it's not in favour of using vaccines as a form of diplomatic leverage (I wonder who they could be talking about?) and will therefore be donating any surplus to COVAX.
That said, if the Government was to target specific countries then they do have one or two sensible options for prioritisation. One is to go for the Commonwealth Realms (which would allow them to make diplomatically useful sales to Canada, Australia and New Zealand, whilst simultaneously bailing a collection of low and middle income countries.) The other could be Caricom, which covers a relatively modest population, would further please the British Overseas Territories in the region, and most of the members of which are also Commonwealth countries. A third option would be Ireland but I think they'd decline the offer. So, there are choices to be made.
Given that we are probably holidaying in the UK this year, where do you recommend for your fellow PBers? I recommend Galloway. Unspoiled and relatively unknown. Wigtown - Scotland’s book town. Galloway dark skies park. Five Kingdoms Brewery in Isle of Whithorn. Remainers can look over to Northern Ireland. Unionists can visit Alister Jack’s constituency. Train buffs can visit the UK’s last semaphore distant signal. Lovely quiet beaches and great dog walks. Red Kites. Any other recommendations?
Boris will announce a reduction to Level 4 tomorrow.
But no room for complacency. London numbers were poor today for first time in 40 days.
Contrarian will be along shortly to inform us "How VERY convenient...."
More and more people are reflecting what @contrarian has been saying for months.
He may or may not have been right in terms of death minimisation but he has always been bang on in terms of the unprecedented restriction of our freedoms and the danger of the scientists overreaching in this respect.
Who ever said we weren't seeing unprecedented restriction of our freedoms? And his claim is not about scientists, it's primarily about politicians wanting to keep us in lockdown forever and it is just uninterestingly wrong.
Given that we are probably holidaying in the UK this year, where do you recommend for your fellow PBers? I recommend Galloway. Unspoiled and relatively unknown. Wigtown - Scotland’s book town. Galloway dark skies park. Five Kingdoms Brewery in Isle of Whithorn. Remainers can look over to Northern Ireland. Unionists can visit Alister Jack’s constituency. Train buffs can visit the UK’s last semaphore distant signal. Lovely quiet beaches and great dog walks. Red Kites. Any other recommendations?
It's a good call. I was thinking Stranraer and environs. We will be coming from London. As the Carlisle - Stranraer railway doesn't appear to be running now thanks Labour, do you have any recommendations for in between accessible by bus, maybe Newton Stewart?
Given that we are probably holidaying in the UK this year, where do you recommend for your fellow PBers? I recommend Galloway. Unspoiled and relatively unknown. Wigtown - Scotland’s book town. Galloway dark skies park. Five Kingdoms Brewery in Isle of Whithorn. Remainers can look over to Northern Ireland. Unionists can visit Alister Jack’s constituency. Train buffs can visit the UK’s last semaphore distant signal. Lovely quiet beaches and great dog walks. Red Kites. Any other recommendations?
Staffordshire Moorlands are nearly as gorgeous as the Peaks and not well known, so not as busy.
I was thinking of Northern Ireland myself, as it happens. Have never been but very much want to go.
Given that we are probably holidaying in the UK this year, where do you recommend for your fellow PBers? I recommend Galloway. Unspoiled and relatively unknown. Wigtown - Scotland’s book town. Galloway dark skies park. Five Kingdoms Brewery in Isle of Whithorn. Remainers can look over to Northern Ireland. Unionists can visit Alister Jack’s constituency. Train buffs can visit the UK’s last semaphore distant signal. Lovely quiet beaches and great dog walks. Red Kites. Any other recommendations?
HEY LET ME TELL YOU ALL ABOUT THIS REALLY UNSPOILED AND UNKNOWN PLACE is a slightly paradoxical thing to be saying.
Just avoid Dartmoor, it's unmitigated shit. Like the rest of Devon.
The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)
Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.
I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.
Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.
Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
Given that we are probably holidaying in the UK this year, where do you recommend for your fellow PBers? I recommend Galloway. Unspoiled and relatively unknown. Wigtown - Scotland’s book town. Galloway dark skies park. Five Kingdoms Brewery in Isle of Whithorn. Remainers can look over to Northern Ireland. Unionists can visit Alister Jack’s constituency. Train buffs can visit the UK’s last semaphore distant signal. Lovely quiet beaches and great dog walks. Red Kites. Any other recommendations?
Caerlaverock Castle, or is that in Dumfriesshire? Whithorn Priory. Old Celtic, latterly the Galwegian abbey.
So we're at the highest level and there's talk of easing lockdown?
Or we should no longer be at level 5.....
I'd agree but a competent government would have made that move, there's an argument for level for 4 or 3.
My guesstimate, is that tomorrow we will see the results of the studies on the effects of the vaccinations so far. This will be used to change the alert level and will be the basis of the plans going forward.
R is currently around 1.
However, based on the vaccination rate, and the effectiveness of vaccination, there may be enough evidence that we are going to de-couple cases from hospitalisation and deaths in the near future.
So we can unlock, contingent on levels of vaccination..
The decoupling will be gradual. At the moment we've vaccinated something like 50% worth of hospitalisations, at whatever efficacy a single dose of Pfizer or AZ provides, and of course the vaccines take a couple weeks to kick in as well, so the actual reduction in the hospitalisations per cases today will be some way below the headline figure.
Cases currently are down 80% from their peak, while hospitalisations are only down around 60%. That's partly explained by lag, and maybe also partly by less serious cases now being admitted, but the point is, we're nowhere near the link between cases and hospitalisations being broken.
Even when we get down to say 25% of the original hospitalisations per case, that still leaves plenty of scope for a NHS crisis if cases were allowed to run out of control.
@MaxPB, how is your research into the hospitalisation rate looking?
The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)
Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.
I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.
Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.
Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.
7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year. We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution. Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?
The problem with stats like the 7% one is that it’s obviously not true.
I personally know a previously healthy, happy, stable, extrovert 14 year old who attempted suicide via paracetamol this winter. She survived: it was probably a cry for help, but sweet Holy Jesus. 14. I can believe these stats.
So we're at the highest level and there's talk of easing lockdown?
We should really be at level 4 at this point, we're at the same point in the hospital numbers as when the government first started easing in May of 2020 and the hospitalisation numbers are dropping faster now than they did in the first lockdown because we have the vaccines.
That's the key difference between now and then, if we unlocked today fully there are around 8m recently recovered plus around 8m immunised with the latter figure rising by around 2.5-3m per week. Last time there were only around 6m recently recovered and no one had vaccine based immunity.
I'm not suggesting we unlock fully, I am suggesting that the situation today isn't comparable to the first wave and the scientists are cynically trying to tie the easing to case numbers knowing that there is no way we're ever going to get case numbers down to anywhere near 1k per day with the amount of testing we do, especially for NHS staff who may get it asymptomatically or get mild symptoms post vaccination.
Just a point: we’re nowhere near the numbers in hospital and ICU we were at the end of May We’ve got more than twice as many in hospital and three times as many in ICU than we did then. Although admissions are down, the accumulated numbers are still there, which means that if things go wrong and admissions from the unvaccinated spike - especially in ICU were the majority are under 61 - we have zero margin for error.
Boris will announce a reduction to Level 4 tomorrow.
But no room for complacency. London numbers were poor today for first time in 40 days.
Hmm, on what basis do you say that? I haven't looked into it yet but the hospital numbers from London looked like a continuation of a decent downwards trend and the total number in hospital is down again (now 65% lower than the second wave peak).
Case numbers aren't the key metric in unlocking.
Case numbers have gone up per my source which I can't link to as I am on mobile. I wish I had a flash phone like TSE.
Other numbers like hospitalisations may have improved.
Does it matter if case numbers have gone up?
Yes if they're going up faster than the vaccinations are bringing down the hospitalisations per case. Especially if they were to accelerate further.
We're so close to getting out of this. Let's not kick off yet another wave just before the end. Open up gradually as (cases turning into) hospitalisations allow.
Given that we are probably holidaying in the UK this year, where do you recommend for your fellow PBers? I recommend Galloway. Unspoiled and relatively unknown. Wigtown - Scotland’s book town. Galloway dark skies park. Five Kingdoms Brewery in Isle of Whithorn. Remainers can look over to Northern Ireland. Unionists can visit Alister Jack’s constituency. Train buffs can visit the UK’s last semaphore distant signal. Lovely quiet beaches and great dog walks. Red Kites. Any other recommendations?
I’ve had half a thought about Campbelltown/Kintyre Peninsula, a part of Scotland I know not at all. It’d be a shot in the dark but that would be part of the fun.
CureVac is the most interesting one as their mRNA vaccine can be stored in 2-4 degree fridges same as vector vaccines. That's why the government has signed the long term deal with them. Hopefully their manufacturing process is also as fast as I expect our annual winter jabs for COVID-21/22/23 are going to be CureVac ones.
ICU numbers matter quite a bit too, as that is what stops a hospital functioning, because of heavy staffing, and those being anaesthetists and theatre staff for surge capacity. Few of the ICU patients would fall in immunisation groups.
What would you say is the mean age of a Covid ICU patient at the moment, and what proportion of them are under fifty years of age?
According to ICNARC, about 60.
About a quarter are under 50 and an eighth under 40.
If the under 60s are unvaccinated, then one doubling takes ICU case numbers over current levels even if all over-60s were instantly immune. Two doublings fills ICUs over current levels even if all over-50s are instantly immune. Case numbers remain important in the unvaccinated.
Yes, but on the 2nd of October the UK was incredibly obviously heading for utter Covid disaster and no one in charge was doing anything about it.
I find myself in the unaccustomed position of being by no means the biggest Jeremiah on the forum tonight. Nonetheless, I understand where you are coming from and feel your pain.
Unless there's a fresh mutation disaster then we're not going to have another craptacular like we did at the start of the year. The first four cohorts have been done and most of them have already had enough time to build immunity, with the others soon to follow. There's simply not as much kindling for the bastard Plague to burn through as there once was.
Now, if we're unlucky then I suppose there's still the possibility of being caught out by another serious wave of hospital cases, but we also have to remember that, unlike in the Autumn, the virus is now engaged in a race against time against the vaccines. With each passing week its ability to spread itself around is further hampered, and the pool of remaining victims that it can put in hospital reduces. We can't be sure that opening the schools won't send everything to shit (and I'd be a lot happier if they only did it gradually rather than all in one go,) but with a bit of luck the worst is now behind us.
Besides anything else, we have to remember that the Government now has the gains to its own reputation as well as to the country to defend here. I don't think they'd let the kids back if they thought it was totally reckless, because they must also realise that if it goes horribly wrong and the kids get locked back up again (which would necessarily imply a longer lockdown for everybody else as well,) then their ratings will collapse and might very well take public acquiescence to the lockdown along with them.
We're getting towards the end of this ordeal. It's not worth their gambling everything so that little Abigail can get back to learning her trigonometry in a school building, rather than on Zoom, a few weeks early. I understand that people are afraid that they'd take a stupid and pointless gamble regardless, but I think for the time being (and given how well the vaccines have been going, and the cautious noises that ministers have been making,) we ought perhaps to assume that they're not going to do anything that's patently mad.
Given that we are probably holidaying in the UK this year, where do you recommend for your fellow PBers? I recommend Galloway. Unspoiled and relatively unknown. Wigtown - Scotland’s book town. Galloway dark skies park. Five Kingdoms Brewery in Isle of Whithorn. Remainers can look over to Northern Ireland. Unionists can visit Alister Jack’s constituency. Train buffs can visit the UK’s last semaphore distant signal. Lovely quiet beaches and great dog walks. Red Kites. Any other recommendations?
It's a good call. I was thinking Stranraer and environs. We will be coming from London. As the Carlisle - Stranraer railway doesn't appear to be running now thanks Labour, do you have any recommendations for in between accessible by bus, maybe Newton Stewart?
Newton Stewart would be a good choice if using public transport. Bus from Stranraer, Dumfries or Girvan. Buses to the Machars - Wigtown, Whithorn.
Let the 2024 decision whether to extend the Protocol be determined on a traditional crosscommunity basis. If the EU can convince the Unionists that the Protocol is a good idea then great who cares and life goes on. If not, then c'est la vie, there's two communities in Northern Ireland not one. 👍
Comments
If I’m wrong, feel free to correct me.
That doesn't stop escape through exploiting the Common Travel Area, assuming that regulations in Ireland are more lax, but it makes it very inconvenient and expensive.
Ultimately, if the public is allowed complete freedom except for no foreign holidays then they'll moan like Hell but they can learn to live with it. The money can be saved, spent on jollies in this country, new clothes, or going down the boozer and getting annihilated, whatever. After what we've all been put through, it's not a serious privation.
I think the vaccine programme will eventually make this less of an issue, but it may need another two months before we reach that stage where enough people are immunised against symptoms that we can reopen in those areas without a surge in cases.
However, the case numbers might not really matter if the vaccine programme has made its way through the hospitalisation prone population already. Again it comes down to that, are people going to end up in hospital or die of COVID. If yes, then we need to keep some level of restrictions to prevent that, if no then we can go ahead with unlocking.
Opening schools anywhere in the UK will bring R above 1, I think.
Covid: Christian group fined £10k for Bulwell car park meet
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-56139051
I think the police might well be on a hiding to nothing here. Unless the car park was physically locked I think what happened was probably legal.
It shouldn’t be - it’s mad we’re closing schools and not churches - but I think it will be.
Perhaps it isn’t a great idea after all on those figures.
Assuming pubs will be open is a giant leap of faith, if you don't mind me saying so.
Pre covid we didn’t vet who came to the country or where our residents went, in case they brought in a novel virus. Even when it was very fucking clear in late January 2020 that doing so was probably a good idea because there was a clear and live threat.
For how long do you intend to separate international families under pain of criminal penalty, just in case something something virus mutation?
Take a breath, get some perspective. We used to travel internationally just fine. Once the vaccine programme has “protected the NHS” we should not hesitate in doing so again.
The alert levels are:
level 1: COVID-19 is not known to be present in the UK
level 2: COVID-19 is present in UK, but the number of cases and transmission is low
level 3: a COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation
level 4: a COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is high or rising exponentially
level 5: as level 4 and there is a material risk of healthcare services being overwhelmed
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-alert-level-methodology-an-overview/uk-covid-19-alert-level-methodology-an-overview
So we're at the highest level and there's talk of easing lockdown?
Better to just get on with our lives at home and [politely] blame the Europeans for their failure as to why its not safe to have holidays there this year.
From case data -
From hospitalisations
Will Hutton
Will Hutton should get out more
That's why there's such huge pushback against the scientists trying to make case numbers the key metric rather than hospital numbers. The whole point of the vaccine programme isn't to stop people getting it, it's to stop people from going to hospital if they do get it and from all of the early data we have that is being achieved with immunised groups seeing much larger drop offs in the hospitalisation rate than in non-immunised groups and a much, much faster drop off in the hospitalisation rate than in the first wave for immunised groups despite Kent COVID resulting in much faster spread.
For not only will they qualify (w/ neg Covid test) BUT they will also feel willing, able and above all safe jetting off to the sands of Waikiki. Not all of them, and not all at once. But likely sufficient numbers to prime the Hawaiian tourist economy.
I generally ignore him and find life much easier and pleasanter as a result.
For intelligent commentary from and about the left, give me John Harris or Janan Ganesh.
The announcement hasn't been made yet and is independently set. Wouldn't surprise me if there's a review scheduled for tomorrow and the PMs decision is pending that.
That's the key difference between now and then, if we unlocked today fully there are around 8m recently recovered plus around 8m immunised with the latter figure rising by around 2.5-3m per week. Last time there were only around 6m recently recovered and no one had vaccine based immunity.
I'm not suggesting we unlock fully, I am suggesting that the situation today isn't comparable to the first wave and the scientists are cynically trying to tie the easing to case numbers knowing that there is no way we're ever going to get case numbers down to anywhere near 1k per day with the amount of testing we do, especially for NHS staff who may get it asymptomatically or get mild symptoms post vaccination.
It is a very strange mental image I could easily have managed without.
I'm doubt anybody will have to knife Boris and Hancock, they don't want us to be in this dystopian nightmare any more than anyone else does.
Wearing a traffic cone as a hat, then placing it on the head of a statue is always hilarious.
He's responsible for Health and that's quite a portfolio right now, he's not responsible for the economy etc and the rest of the Cabinet need to step up to the plate for that, especially Boris who needs to balance everything up.
Very late to this but I think it is interesting and fair accurate
- You are being unfair by labelling personality/positioning as “the Trump strategy” although he did follow it. Having charisma and being perceived as “on my side” by the voters is a classic winning strategy for all politicians
- Performance is a horrible strategy for an opposition. Essentially, as someone on here called it, it’s a Micawber strategy - something will turn up. Defensive and negative - it only wins if the government screws up
- “Positioning” for a minor party like the LibDems is weak. It works for a regional party like the SNP, but the LibDems just aren’t differentiated from Labour in their SDP mode. They may win some seats based on arch-Rejoiners but it won’t win an election or achieve anything
Conclusion: unless Boris screws up the Tories won the exit election if those strategies remain the same
But no room for complacency. London numbers were poor today for first time in 40 days.
R is currently around 1.
However, based on the vaccination rate, and the effectiveness of vaccination, there may be enough evidence that we are going to de-couple cases from hospitalisation and deaths in the near future.
So we can unlock, contingent on levels of vaccination..
Case numbers aren't the key metric in unlocking.
Other numbers like hospitalisations may have improved.
He may or may not have been right in terms of death minimisation but he has always been bang on in terms of the unprecedented restriction of our freedoms and the danger of the scientists overreaching in this respect.
One in one pub on the phone to another in another pub.
😠
I could see an argument that instead of giving 100m doses and spreading out to the world you should take - say - Kenya and fully vaccinate them. That gets at least one country working vs a marginal benefit for all
We had been seeing very, very good falls in cases and in the last week it has almost ground to a halt. Looking at this chart it looks as if things are going to start going upwards again. We will know for certain within a week.
I think that people have seen all the good news recently and have started relaxing themselves and doing things that they weren't a month ago. Everyone just doing one unessential trip adds up to a massive impact.
The other unknown still is whether cases is still the key measure given we have now vaccinated 25% of the population, the most vulnerable 25%. We have already seen in the case numbers that the oldest age groups have decreased the most. At what point does hospital admissions and deaths become more important?
Until a week ago I think Boris was all set to open schools but now it is a more more difficult decision. If it were mere I would say that we would have liked to have opened schools but the fall in cases has stopped in the last week. We will monitor for one more week and make a decision. Everyone has to do their part by really cutting out the unnecessary trips.
Then he can say that he wants it done and why wasn't it done sooner.
Really?
Cases currently are down 80% from their peak, while hospitalisations are only down around 60%. That's partly explained by lag, and maybe also partly by less serious cases now being admitted, but the point is, we're nowhere near the link between cases and hospitalisations being broken.
Even when we get down to say 25% of the original hospitalisations per case, that still leaves plenty of scope for a NHS crisis if cases were allowed to run out of control.
@MaxPB, how is your research into the hospitalisation rate looking?
That said, if the Government was to target specific countries then they do have one or two sensible options for prioritisation. One is to go for the Commonwealth Realms (which would allow them to make diplomatically useful sales to Canada, Australia and New Zealand, whilst simultaneously bailing a collection of low and middle income countries.) The other could be Caricom, which covers a relatively modest population, would further please the British Overseas Territories in the region, and most of the members of which are also Commonwealth countries. A third option would be Ireland but I think they'd decline the offer. So, there are choices to be made.
I was thinking of Northern Ireland myself, as it happens. Have never been but very much want to go.
Just avoid Dartmoor, it's unmitigated shit. Like the rest of Devon.
Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
Get them back to school
We’ve got more than twice as many in hospital and three times as many in ICU than we did then. Although admissions are down, the accumulated numbers are still there, which means that if things go wrong and admissions from the unvaccinated spike - especially in ICU were the majority are under 61 - we have zero margin for error.
https://twitter.com/rhysblakely/status/1363584392917114886
We're so close to getting out of this. Let's not kick off yet another wave just before the end. Open up gradually as (cases turning into) hospitalisations allow.
About a quarter are under 50 and an eighth under 40.
If the under 60s are unvaccinated, then one doubling takes ICU case numbers over current levels even if all over-60s were instantly immune.
Two doublings fills ICUs over current levels even if all over-50s are instantly immune.
Case numbers remain important in the unvaccinated.
Unless there's a fresh mutation disaster then we're not going to have another craptacular like we did at the start of the year. The first four cohorts have been done and most of them have already had enough time to build immunity, with the others soon to follow. There's simply not as much kindling for the bastard Plague to burn through as there once was.
Now, if we're unlucky then I suppose there's still the possibility of being caught out by another serious wave of hospital cases, but we also have to remember that, unlike in the Autumn, the virus is now engaged in a race against time against the vaccines. With each passing week its ability to spread itself around is further hampered, and the pool of remaining victims that it can put in hospital reduces. We can't be sure that opening the schools won't send everything to shit (and I'd be a lot happier if they only did it gradually rather than all in one go,) but with a bit of luck the worst is now behind us.
Besides anything else, we have to remember that the Government now has the gains to its own reputation as well as to the country to defend here. I don't think they'd let the kids back if they thought it was totally reckless, because they must also realise that if it goes horribly wrong and the kids get locked back up again (which would necessarily imply a longer lockdown for everybody else as well,) then their ratings will collapse and might very well take public acquiescence to the lockdown along with them.
We're getting towards the end of this ordeal. It's not worth their gambling everything so that little Abigail can get back to learning her trigonometry in a school building, rather than on Zoom, a few weeks early. I understand that people are afraid that they'd take a stupid and pointless gamble regardless, but I think for the time being (and given how well the vaccines have been going, and the cautious noises that ministers have been making,) we ought perhaps to assume that they're not going to do anything that's patently mad.
Let the 2024 decision whether to extend the Protocol be determined on a traditional crosscommunity basis. If the EU can convince the Unionists that the Protocol is a good idea then great who cares and life goes on. If not, then c'est la vie, there's two communities in Northern Ireland not one. 👍