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Are the COVID trends positive enough for ministers to ease the lockdown? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited February 21 in General
imageAre the COVID trends positive enough for ministers to ease the lockdown? – politicalbetting.com

Tomorrow is a massive day in the government’s efforts to control the pandemic with Johnson due to make a statement with what is being termed the “road-map” back to normality whatever that is deemed to be.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772
    First
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772
    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 10,504
    edited February 21
    Third. I'm not sure tomorrow will be a surprise. Because I can see either option, and anything in between as entirely plausible.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 6,864
    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 9,331
    edited February 21
    New cases = 9,834. Equivalent to an average of 15 in each parliamentary constituency (most of which have a population of about 100,000 people).

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-when-will-lockdown-be-lifted-when-is-pms-announcement-johnson-prepares-to-meet-ministers-to-discuss-roadmap-out-of-lockdown-12222355
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 10,504
    Don't know if this was done on previous thread, but these are horrific results for kids' mental health.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/21/uk-17-year-olds-mental-health-crisis

    7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year.
    We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution.
    Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 7,229
    I’m with Robert that I’d hold the schools back until Easter as then you pinch 17 extra days because they are on holiday anyway.

    But it won’t happen: 8 March has been so widely briefed it must be happening.

    Maybe beer gardens / fashion / hair / beauty etc 2 April

    Indoor pubs 1 May.

    Something like that I’d guess. But who knows?
  • Everybody down the pub to celebrate?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 55,953
    edited February 21
    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 6,864
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    I think we all appreciate that, but the Government is very keen on getting the schools open and may be preparing to roll the dice on an early re-opening. Two possible outcomes: (a) the suggestion that schools aren't major drivers of the pandemic is borne out, it doesn't do serious harm, the Government can move on to the next stage quickly (and it can perhaps score some points off the devolved administrations for being excessively cautious for keeping the older kids at home); or (b) it goes wrong, we are set back, wailing and gnashing of teeth, much embarrassment.

    Still, we don't have long to wait now until we find out how far they intend to go.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 7,229

    Everybody down the pub to celebrate?

    I will be as soon as I get the chance. You?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,850
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    And spread from young children to adults seems quite limited but from adolescents to adults there's no difference to the normal rate. I'd suggest that we need to hold back on secondary schools until all groups 1-9 are immunised and the government has brought that date forwards to coincide with three weeks after end of the Easter holidays. Another small acceleration would allow for all teachers in groups 1-9 to have 75%+ immunity to symptoms (better than what is offered by the J&J vaccine that many countries are counting on in the summer).

    That extra 5 weeks of vaccination time not opening secondary schools on the 8th buys us could be the difference between never needing lockdown again or having to hold onto non-school lockdown measures for another 2-3 months while hospitals handle a new wave of patients aged 40-60
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 6,864

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    Exactly. If it's not deemed safe to open up international travel then the hit will just have to be taken. If the choice is between sunshine holidays followed by lockdown, or no sunshine holidays and no lockdown, then there is no choice.

    Next to lockdown, the cost of keeping airlines and tour operators on life support can be paid from loose change.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,268
    I think reopening schools on the 8th WILL create a small bump in the road but ACTUAL herd immunity via vaccine will be kicking in soon enough after the schools open for it to get lost in the weeds.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,201
    dixiedean said:

    Don't know if this was done on previous thread, but these are horrific results for kids' mental health.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/21/uk-17-year-olds-mental-health-crisis

    7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year.
    We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution.
    Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?

    The problem with stats like the 7% one is that it’s obviously not true.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772
    edited February 21
    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.

    And if Brits stay home and save money rather than travelling to a rather limited number of British seaside destinations, then the economy won't have benefited.

    (The problem is that the UK's tourist industry - destinations, hotels, etc. - are geared to where people coming to Britain would like to go. They're focused on heritage. That doesn't necessarily match up with where John from Gateshead wants to go get some sunshine and time by the pool. Simply, tourism is not fungible.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 18,667
    edited February 21
    My predictions:
    The roadmap will be more bullish than most expect.
    Big bang for schools. All of them back on 8th March.
    No regional variations. One nation under the groove.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 7,229
    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    Indeed. The temptation to ban overseas holidays even if the virus numbers are comfortably the right side of marginal will be too great for the government to resist. I suspect they’ll look to open up international holidays from the early autumn, banking a massive tourism surplus over the key August school holiday period.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    Exactly. If it's not deemed safe to open up international travel then the hit will just have to be taken. If the choice is between sunshine holidays followed by lockdown, or no sunshine holidays and no lockdown, then there is no choice.

    Next to lockdown, the cost of keeping airlines and tour operators on life support can be paid from loose change.
    Hawaii is introducing a "two weeks after your second vaccine dose you can come without quarantine" policy. (You also need to submit a negative Covid test.) That doesn't seem unreasonable.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,420
    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    All fine and dandy, except people are expecting their foreign jolly after being locked away for 18 months.

    With supply and demand being such, a week in a guesthouse in Skegness will be significantly more than a fortnight including flights to the Rui Resort Hotel in Gran Canaria would normally cost. Red Wallers will be spitting bullets!

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 55,953
    edited February 21
    Stamford Hill’s Jewish community has ‘one of highest Covid infection rates in world’

    among the 15,000 people in Stamford Hill’s Jewish community it is 75 per cent for working age adults, according to a report by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/stamford-hill-highest-covid-infections-world-b920632.html?amp

    I seemed to remember reading that in Israel the Haredim Jews account for 12% of the population, but are 40% of the cases.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,160
    edited February 21

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    Indeed. The temptation to ban overseas holidays even if the virus numbers are comfortably the right side of marginal will be too great for the government to resist. I suspect they’ll look to open up international holidays from the early autumn, banking a massive tourism surplus over the key August school holiday period.
    Between airlines, ferry companies, travel agents, and booking agencies based here, a fair amount of UK employment derives from foreign holidays. As well as travel insurers, currency exchange, and suppliers of the stuff people buy before going abroad. Including the retail outlets at ports, airports and on board.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,023
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Don't know if this was done on previous thread, but these are horrific results for kids' mental health.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/21/uk-17-year-olds-mental-health-crisis

    7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year.
    We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution.
    Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?

    The problem with stats like the 7% one is that it’s obviously not true.
    *Obviously*?
    7% sounds entirely believable to me.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,201
    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Don't know if this was done on previous thread, but these are horrific results for kids' mental health.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/21/uk-17-year-olds-mental-health-crisis

    7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year.
    We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution.
    Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?

    The problem with stats like the 7% one is that it’s obviously not true.
    *Obviously*?
    7% sounds entirely believable to me.
    Your regular reminder of who actually commits suicide:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/suicidesintheunitedkingdom/2019registrations
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,645
    It should be remembered however that too quick an easing off of lockdown will not be popular either, most voters want a cautious approach to easing off lockdown.

    Most likely it will be a gradual process, schools reopening next month along with universities, non-essential shops from April along with pub gardens and pubs reopening their bars indoors and restaurants for indoor dining from May. That way those vaccinated will also be able to use their antibodies and build up immunity by winter without too fast a reopening leading to rapid mutations.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 55,953
    edited February 21
    HYUFD said:

    It should be remembered however that too quick an easing off of lockdown will not be popular either, most voters want a cautious approach to easing off lockdown.

    Most likely it will be a gradual process, schools reopening next month along with universities, non-essential shops from April along with pub gardens and pubs reopening their bars indoors and restaurants for indoor dining from May. That way those vaccinated will also be able to use their antibodies and build up immunity by winter without too fast a reopening leading to rapid mutations.

    Would be surprised if unis...not sure the government will want a mass movement of.plague carriers all over the place.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,160
    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    The first question is how definitive it will be. Everything else the government has announced since the pandemic started has been tinkered with, amended, changed or abandoned completely not long after being announced.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,850

    I intend to basically relive Fresher's Week once restrictions are lifted.

    Full moon party for a week straight for me and my wife (that's where we met all those years ago).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 13,103
    I see Northumberland now has a higher prevelence than Newcastle @dixiedean ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772
    tlg86 said:

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Don't know if this was done on previous thread, but these are horrific results for kids' mental health.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/21/uk-17-year-olds-mental-health-crisis

    7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year.
    We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution.
    Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?

    The problem with stats like the 7% one is that it’s obviously not true.
    *Obviously*?
    7% sounds entirely believable to me.
    Your regular reminder of who actually commits suicide:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/suicidesintheunitedkingdom/2019registrations
    Is it Steve again?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,727
    rcs1000 said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    Exactly. If it's not deemed safe to open up international travel then the hit will just have to be taken. If the choice is between sunshine holidays followed by lockdown, or no sunshine holidays and no lockdown, then there is no choice.

    Next to lockdown, the cost of keeping airlines and tour operators on life support can be paid from loose change.
    Hawaii is introducing a "two weeks after your second vaccine dose you can come without quarantine" policy. (You also need to submit a negative Covid test.) That doesn't seem unreasonable.
    Seems eminently reasonable. I think Hawaii is about the only American state that's had a reasonable epidemic so far. And it hasn't gone to the hysterical lengths that Australia and New Zealand (or, lately, the UK) have.

    But don't forget that's on top of federal restrictions.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,378

    I intend to basically relive Fresher's Week once restrictions are lifted.

    Careful! I tried that when the first lockdown was lifted and ended up getting barred from my local Wetherspoons.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,118
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Back in the day, almost everyone went on holiday in the UK - which is why Blackpool, Skegness, North Wales, and Bournemouth all thrived. So it is do'able.

    I think the most likely thing is that Air B&B tries to meet the surge.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,160
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Capacity can be increased by extending the season.

    Indeed, we seem to have visitors here already. I don’t know how or why, given the restrictions, but there are people I haven’t seen before with dogs we haven’t met before going round taking photos of stuff, not the behaviour of people who live here. Perhaps Sean isn’t the only one getting restless as the lockdown grinds on?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,160

    I intend to basically relive Fresher's Week once restrictions are lifted.

    Careful! I tried that when the first lockdown was lifted and ended up getting barred from my local Wetherspoons.
    If that was the worst of it, your wife or partner must be very understanding.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 18,667
    HYUFD said:

    It should be remembered however that too quick an easing off of lockdown will not be popular either, most voters want a cautious approach to easing off lockdown.

    Most likely it will be a gradual process, schools reopening next month along with universities, non-essential shops from April along with pub gardens and pubs reopening their bars indoors and restaurants for indoor dining from May. That way those vaccinated will also be able to use their antibodies and build up immunity by winter without too fast a reopening leading to rapid mutations.

    Sounds about right.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 18,667
    MaxPB said:

    I intend to basically relive Fresher's Week once restrictions are lifted.

    Full moon party for a week straight for me and my wife (that's where we met all those years ago).
    You met on the moon?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,850
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    I think weekend trips to London over the summer will probably be quite popular for people living within easy train distance and hotels will put packages together for punters including show tickets etc...

    I agree that it is likely to be a negative sum game in terms of overall money spent by UK holidaygoers, what I'm suggesting is that because the proportion of money spent by them will be ca. 95% domestic even the lesser amount of money spent will be more than the UK normally makes in a standard year from tourism.

    Though I agree that it will make hotspots and notspots. Places like Edinburgh, Devon and South Wales will probably do relatively better than places like London which relies on foreign tourists to go to tourist sites (something any self respecting Londoner avoids at all cost).
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 13,103
    I intend to host a house party every night for about a week.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,850
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    I intend to basically relive Fresher's Week once restrictions are lifted.

    Full moon party for a week straight for me and my wife (that's where we met all those years ago).
    You met on the moon?
    A beach on a Thai island, in fact.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 13,103

    I intend to basically relive Fresher's Week once restrictions are lifted.

    Careful! I tried that when the first lockdown was lifted and ended up getting barred from my local Wetherspoons.
    Wear it like a badge of honour. Being thrown out of Huddersfield Wetherspoons was one of my finest hours
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,201
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Don't know if this was done on previous thread, but these are horrific results for kids' mental health.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/21/uk-17-year-olds-mental-health-crisis

    7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year.
    We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution.
    Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?

    The problem with stats like the 7% one is that it’s obviously not true.
    *Obviously*?
    7% sounds entirely believable to me.
    Your regular reminder of who actually commits suicide:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/suicidesintheunitedkingdom/2019registrations
    Is it Steve again?
    Well it’s certainly more likely to be a man. And they’re likely to be your age.

    But the popular image is of a teenage girl - especially telegenic girls who were the daughter of a BBC producer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 18,667

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    All fine and dandy, except people are expecting their foreign jolly after being locked away for 18 months.

    With supply and demand being such, a week in a guesthouse in Skegness will be significantly more than a fortnight including flights to the Rui Resort Hotel in Gran Canaria would normally cost. Red Wallers will be spitting bullets!
    And what Red Wallers want Red Wallers get! :smile:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 18,667
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    I intend to basically relive Fresher's Week once restrictions are lifted.

    Full moon party for a week straight for me and my wife (that's where we met all those years ago).
    You met on the moon?
    A beach on a Thai island, in fact.
    Almost as exotic!
  • MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    All fine and dandy, except people are expecting their foreign jolly after being locked away for 18 months.

    With supply and demand being such, a week in a guesthouse in Skegness will be significantly more than a fortnight including flights to the Rui Resort Hotel in Gran Canaria would normally cost. Red Wallers will be spitting bullets!

    To be frank - so freaking what?

    It ought to be reasonable to say that the vaccinations in Europe aren't far enough, so its not safe to travel to Europe for vacations this summer - but its safe to have vacations at home and next year we'll be able to have sunny holidays abroad.

    At least then people will know what to expect and can make plans.
  • I intend to host a house party every night for about a week.

    Bloody students ;-)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,039
    Evening all :)

    On the subject of ludicrous tunnel projects, why not build a tunnel from Penzance to the Isles of Scilly? 28 miles from Lands End and pace the Faeroes, we could have a new station built under Hugh Town to provide direct access from London and the rest of the UK.

    Guaranteed supplies for the islands - no worries if the weather closes down flights or the Scillonian.

    From Hugh Town, underground cycle ways or a light railway linking the islands - perhaps a tram to Tresco for the gardens.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,727

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    All fine and dandy, except people are expecting their foreign jolly after being locked away for 18 months.

    With supply and demand being such, a week in a guesthouse in Skegness will be significantly more than a fortnight including flights to the Rui Resort Hotel in Gran Canaria would normally cost. Red Wallers will be spitting bullets!

    To be frank - so freaking what?

    It ought to be reasonable to say that the vaccinations in Europe aren't far enough, so its not safe to travel to Europe for vacations this summer - but its safe to have vacations at home and next year we'll be able to have sunny holidays abroad.

    At least then people will know what to expect and can make plans.
    It's vaccinations in the UK that matter. If people have been vaccinated here, I don't see why they can't go where they like. There may be a one in a million risk of them contracting a so far undetected and dangerous new variant, but that'll always be there, and they might get that in England too.

    And people have been imprisoned without charge or trial for far too long.
  • Five of the French side who started the Six Nations win over Ireland will miss the match with Scotland next Sunday after testing positive for Covid-19.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 9,331
    edited February 21
    I would wait until the numbers are less than 1,000 in the UK, and then try to track and trace those cases. The last time it was that low was 8th August.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,931
    HYUFD said:

    It should be remembered however that too quick an easing off of lockdown will not be popular either, most voters want a cautious approach to easing off lockdown.

    Most likely it will be a gradual process, schools reopening next month along with universities, non-essential shops from April along with pub gardens and pubs reopening their bars indoors and restaurants for indoor dining from May. That way those vaccinated will also be able to use their antibodies and build up immunity by winter without too fast a reopening leading to rapid mutations.

    I'd like the rule of 6 for outdoor exercise (so my running club can meet again) and pub gardens likewise for Easter. Any "two households" rule means nothing when you live on your own.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,924
    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Don't know if this was done on previous thread, but these are horrific results for kids' mental health.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/21/uk-17-year-olds-mental-health-crisis

    7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year.
    We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution.
    Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?

    The problem with stats like the 7% one is that it’s obviously not true.
    *Obviously*?
    7% sounds entirely believable to me.
    The quote was unclear.

    7% is "attempted in lifetime".

    TBF on this the G was clear, and misquoted here.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 6,864
    rcs1000 said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    Exactly. If it's not deemed safe to open up international travel then the hit will just have to be taken. If the choice is between sunshine holidays followed by lockdown, or no sunshine holidays and no lockdown, then there is no choice.

    Next to lockdown, the cost of keeping airlines and tour operators on life support can be paid from loose change.
    Hawaii is introducing a "two weeks after your second vaccine dose you can come without quarantine" policy. (You also need to submit a negative Covid test.) That doesn't seem unreasonable.
    Yes, I can just imagine the entire UK package tour market reorienting toward a remote archipelago in the middle of the North Pacific. It's all so simple. Why did no-one think of this before?

    Seriously, I guess that the prospects for travel in the medium term depend on how the Government feels about letting double vaccinated people loose to fly overseas to countries with substantially higher prevalence (given that we are frequently reminded that vaccines are less than 100% effective and mutant strains remain a threat.) We know that all the European mass market beach holiday destinations are a long way behind the UK with their vaccine programmes, and that dark mutterings about resurgences or new waves have started to emerge from a number of major EU states (third wave talk in Germany, requests for lockdowns from regional leaders in France and an uptick in cases in Italy have all been reported today.)

    Personally I'd rather that foreign holidays were just written off for the year, or at least until some other destinations have got to the same place we have and we can open travel corridors with them (though currently the only sunshine getaway that looks like it will be done anywhere close to our timescales is Malta, which obviously doesn't have the capacity to satisfy the demands of millions and millions of beached Beluga whale Brits.) If we successfully get to the point where we can wave goodbye to more and more fucking lockdowns with a reasonable degree of confidence, then risking it all by exposing ourselves to the importation of vaccine evading Plague from overseas simply ain't worth it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,023
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Capacity can be increased by extending the season.

    Indeed, we seem to have visitors here already. I don’t know how or why, given the restrictions, but there are people I haven’t seen before with dogs we haven’t met before going round taking photos of stuff, not the behaviour of people who live here. Perhaps Sean isn’t the only one getting restless as the lockdown grinds on?
    And if Steve from Sunderland doesn't want to go to London, and there isn't the capacity for him in Cornwall, and he can't go to Spain, he isn't going to just not spend that money - he may not go away anywhere but he'll be enjoying his leisure time and spending his leisure money somehow in the UK. Or he may just choose to defer his time off, which would also be good for the economy.

    Even if we are allowed to go abroad, is it likely to be an attractive offer? If Europe is still locked down or mandating masks, people will think twice before going abroad eben if they can.
    I really hope we get a dry summer though...

    Personally not being able to go abroad is absolutely no inconvenience to me. I have three young children. Foreign holidays with small children are either prohibitively expensive or terrible.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,924
    edited February 21
    Somehow this made it through:



    (Though apparently we aren't :smile: )
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,428
    The upbeat interview Hancock gave to Marr today does set up positive mood music for tomorrow’s announcement. It would be jarring in that context for it to be TOO cautious - but cautious to an extent it will be.

    Sunak has yet to announce any extension to furlough - currently due to end on 30 April. The last extension was announced in December. If, and it’s a big if, it was anticipated that the economy would remain substantially closed after 30 April it has to be extended soon for businesses to plan.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,201
    edited February 21
    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Don't know if this was done on previous thread, but these are horrific results for kids' mental health.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/21/uk-17-year-olds-mental-health-crisis

    7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year.
    We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution.
    Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?

    The problem with stats like the 7% one is that it’s obviously not true.
    *Obviously*?
    7% sounds entirely believable to me.
    The quote was unclear.

    7% is "attempted in lifetime".

    TBF on this the G was clear, and misquoted here.
    I took it to mean in their lifetime (I know the original post was linking it to COVID), that’s why I flagged up the actual stats. That is, I don’t believe that 7% of 17 year olds have tried to commit suicide in their lifetimes.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,534
    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Don't know if this was done on previous thread, but these are horrific results for kids' mental health.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/21/uk-17-year-olds-mental-health-crisis

    7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year.
    We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution.
    Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?

    The problem with stats like the 7% one is that it’s obviously not true.
    *Obviously*?
    7% sounds entirely believable to me.
    There were 5691 suicides in E and W in 2019, among all ages. 7% of 17 year olds is about 42,000. Either the attempts are a bit half hearted, or they are being dramatic, or the survey is rubbish or our system is very good at saving them. Or any combination. All still worrying however. And of course it really happens, sadly I have known a few.

  • Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    All fine and dandy, except people are expecting their foreign jolly after being locked away for 18 months.

    With supply and demand being such, a week in a guesthouse in Skegness will be significantly more than a fortnight including flights to the Rui Resort Hotel in Gran Canaria would normally cost. Red Wallers will be spitting bullets!

    To be frank - so freaking what?

    It ought to be reasonable to say that the vaccinations in Europe aren't far enough, so its not safe to travel to Europe for vacations this summer - but its safe to have vacations at home and next year we'll be able to have sunny holidays abroad.

    At least then people will know what to expect and can make plans.
    It's vaccinations in the UK that matter. If people have been vaccinated here, I don't see why they can't go where they like. There may be a one in a million risk of them contracting a so far undetected and dangerous new variant, but that'll always be there, and they might get that in England too.

    And people have been imprisoned without charge or trial for far too long.
    12 million people going abroad means a dozen "one in a million" chances happening. Then what? Then are we back at square one having a national lockdown next winter?

    You won't get that in England as it won't be in England to happen. It could be overseas

    Having a holiday in the UK is not "imprisoned without charge or trial" - but people bringing this bastard bug back causing us to return to lockdown again? That would be.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,428
    edited February 21
    Anybody in favour of paying for the pandemic by legalising cannabis and taxing the shit out of it?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 256
    As some Scottish children return to school tomorrow, it will be interesting to see the effect on case numbers in the next few weeks. Given the Scottish Government’s desperation to get kids back to school, they will be upset if numbers rise, as I expect them to do. Bad news for the rest of us, who will remain in lockdown for weeks yet, is suspect. I don’t think hospitality, hairdressers, taxi drivers, etc, will survive if we are still locked down after the rest of the UK. But as long as the kids are at school ........
  • Blue on blue / green...

    BBC News - Call for inquiry into Carrie Symonds' influence in No 10
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56145491
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,039
    Slightly more on topic, the virus figures continue to head robustly in the right direction.

    According to the Daily Mail (so it must be true), all over 50s in East London are due to have had their first vaccination by April 4th so that's a month behind the "leading" areas but encouraging nonetheless.

    Schools open March 8th.

    Most non-essential retail March 29th (in time for Easter so I will be bale to sit and snarl at other people at my favourite cafe in the Barking Road). I imagine race meetings may be able to have limited numbers in attendance from then as well. I suspect there will only be a token crowd for the National.

    Pubs - where some PBers seem to want to spend every waking or indeed unconscious hour- seem to be the litmus test of normality. Table service could be on the 29th March but the "propping up of the bar" won't happen for a while.

    The second great barometer of normality - the haircut - could be the 29th March but I suspect three weeks after that.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 6,864
    Andy_JS said:

    I would wait until the numbers are less than 1,000 in the UK, and then try to track and trace those cases. The last time it was that low was 8th August.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

    Unwise. At a rate of decline of 20% per week, it would take until early May to get down to 1,000 cases per day - and the rate of decline in cases is presently slowing (down to 16% per week according to the dashboard.) There's no conceivable reason for waiting that long to start loosening up, especially since the further we get into the vaccination campaign the fewer the total number of vulnerable and unprotected individuals left in the population, and the harder it becomes for the disease to spread through the remaining unvaccinated like wildfire. You're just getting into the territory where the effects of the lockdown kill and maim more people than the remaining number of serious disease cases, and when the danger of the illness is radically reduced increasing numbers of people will choose to disregard the rules in any event.

    Tracking and tracing every single case won't help either. The combination of the infectiousness of Covid and the proportion of asymptomatic cases means that total suppression through tracking, tracing and isolation is an unrealistic goal - infections are always likely to leak out into other parts of the community even if you try to throw a cordon sanitaire around the known infected individuals and all their immediate contacts (caveat: Australia and New Zealand have successfully dealt with very small outbreaks with Draconian snap lockdowns covering entire cities, but they have moved heaven and Earth to try to stamp out the disease and keep it out whilst they wait to start mass vaccination - these measures would be wholly disproportionate in our very different circumstances.)

    This doesn't mean that test, trace and isolate is useless, but I think that the current approach of keeping a lookout for problem variants popping up, and then concentrating on very localized surge testing and trying to keep the prevalence of those really low, is probably the right one. Minimizing the circulation of nasty new forms of the Plague, rather than desperately trying to wipe out every last chain of transmission, seems more realistic and achievable.
  • DougSeal said:

    Anybody in favour of paying for the pandemic by legalising cannabis and taxing the shit out of it?

    Absolutely.

    People are getting high either way. Better the £££ goes to Sunak than ganglords.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,924
    edited February 21
    ..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,645
    Clear support for the Church of England's new housing proposals from Jenrick and Khan



  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,039
    HYUFD said:

    It should be remembered however that too quick an easing off of lockdown will not be popular either, most voters want a cautious approach to easing off lockdown.

    Most likely it will be a gradual process, schools reopening next month along with universities, non-essential shops from April along with pub gardens and pubs reopening their bars indoors and restaurants for indoor dining from May. That way those vaccinated will also be able to use their antibodies and build up immunity by winter without too fast a reopening leading to rapid mutations.

    We don't actually know how long immunity from the current vaccinations will last. I suspect there will need to be around of booster vaccinations in October or November.

    The other imponderable is the rate of vaccination worldwide. It's rare I agree with Boris Johnson but he's right to opine that once we have vaccinated their populations, the wealthier countries need to get to the vaccine to the poorer parts of the world.

    The global economy functions best when the globe itself is open for business and countries/regions which remain closed due to insufficient vaccination impact everywhere else.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,420

    I intend to basically relive Fresher's Week once restrictions are lifted.

    A week finding one's way around a university library doesn't sound too exciting to me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,268
    When does everyone reckon Nightclubs will be open ?
    Told my other half I want to leave it 21 days till after my 1st vax before I head in :D
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 10,504
    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Don't know if this was done on previous thread, but these are horrific results for kids' mental health.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/21/uk-17-year-olds-mental-health-crisis

    7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year.
    We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution.
    Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?

    The problem with stats like the 7% one is that it’s obviously not true.
    *Obviously*?
    7% sounds entirely believable to me.
    The quote was unclear.

    7% is "attempted in lifetime".

    TBF on this the G was clear, and misquoted here.
    Yes. By me. Apologies for not reading carefully enough. Nevertheless it is a huge figure. And it isn't going to all magically be cured by the end of Lockdown, or even Covid.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,391
    The numbers in Scotland are fucking insane to be (partially) bringing schools back.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 2,630
    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Don't know if this was done on previous thread, but these are horrific results for kids' mental health.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/21/uk-17-year-olds-mental-health-crisis

    7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year.
    We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution.
    Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?

    The problem with stats like the 7% one is that it’s obviously not true.
    *Obviously*?
    7% sounds entirely believable to me.
    There were 5691 suicides in E and W in 2019, among all ages. 7% of 17 year olds is about 42,000. Either the attempts are a bit half hearted, or they are being dramatic, or the survey is rubbish or our system is very good at saving them. Or any combination. All still worrying however. And of course it really happens, sadly I have known a few.

    2 college friends, one work colleague, and a family member. Yes, it's real.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 6,864
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    On the subject of ludicrous tunnel projects, why not build a tunnel from Penzance to the Isles of Scilly? 28 miles from Lands End and pace the Faeroes, we could have a new station built under Hugh Town to provide direct access from London and the rest of the UK.

    Guaranteed supplies for the islands - no worries if the weather closes down flights or the Scillonian.

    From Hugh Town, underground cycle ways or a light railway linking the islands - perhaps a tram to Tresco for the gardens.

    Of course, what we really need to do is harness the genius of our great universities to crack the problem of teleportation. If we could simply beam people and cargo from point to point instantaneously then all these other transport megaprojects would no longer be needed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,093

    I’m with Robert that I’d hold the schools back until Easter as then you pinch 17 extra days because they are on holiday anyway.

    But it won’t happen: 8 March has been so widely briefed it must be happening.

    Or alternatively, Johnson has been briefing that so he can blame somebody other than himself when it doesn’t happen.

    From what headteachers have seen on the testing regime being planned, they have already warned they can’t have all year groups back at once without a train wreck. So if they cut up rough and ultimately doom whatever he announce, he will have a nice new enemy to deflect Mark Harper towards.

    https://www.tes.com/news/teachers-fear-reckless-full-8-march-school-openings
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 6,864
    edited February 21
    Alistair said:

    The numbers in Scotland are fucking insane to be (partially) bringing schools back.

    The First Minister of Scotland is human, just like the PM. She's under pressure to release the kiddies from prison too.

    OTOH, she has built her reputation for handling the whole thing better on the back of cautious decisions.

    There's every reason to suppose that she's concluded based on advice that there's probably little harm in letting a limited number of small children back into educational settings, though in practice there is risk attached to any decision and we don't know how big a chance her boffins have told her she's taking. We'll just have to wait and see I suppose.

    EDIT: it's not just us, the Germans are clucking over the schools as well (and, unlike in the UK, their case load is already going up):

    Germany’s health minister has called for caution as schools prepare to reopen this week despite a rise in the number of coronavirus cases.

    “The virus isn’t making it easy for us,” Spahn told German broadcaster ARD. “We’re seeing that the numbers are climbing again. That’s annoying, and it brings back some uncertainty. That’s why caution, testing and vaccinating must continue to guide our path.”

    The country has seen a recent slight rise in cases after a partial lockdown, imposed in mid-November, brought down infections. The rise has been attributed to the more transmissible variant first detected in the UK.

    Schools and daycare centres are set to reopen in 10 German regions from Monday, with restrictions like mask-wearing in classrooms and ventilation planned.

    Spahn said a balance has to be struck between protecting Germans from the risks posed by new, more infectious virus strains and the necessity for children to have some kind of “normal daily life”.

    He said the effect of schools reopening will be monitored closely.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/feb/21/coronavirus-live-news-australia-begins-vaccine-rollout-israel-says-pfizer-jab-96-effective
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 18,667

    DougSeal said:

    Anybody in favour of paying for the pandemic by legalising cannabis and taxing the shit out of it?

    Absolutely.

    People are getting high either way. Better the £££ goes to Sunak than ganglords.
    But he's already very wealthy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,769

    I intend to basically relive Fresher's Week once restrictions are lifted.

    Traffic cones, be afraid.....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,420

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    All fine and dandy, except people are expecting their foreign jolly after being locked away for 18 months.

    With supply and demand being such, a week in a guesthouse in Skegness will be significantly more than a fortnight including flights to the Rui Resort Hotel in Gran Canaria would normally cost. Red Wallers will be spitting bullets!

    To be frank - so freaking what?

    It ought to be reasonable to say that the vaccinations in Europe aren't far enough, so its not safe to travel to Europe for vacations this summer - but its safe to have vacations at home and next year we'll be able to have sunny holidays abroad.

    At least then people will know what to expect and can make plans.
    It's vaccinations in the UK that matter. If people have been vaccinated here, I don't see why they can't go where they like. There may be a one in a million risk of them contracting a so far undetected and dangerous new variant, but that'll always be there, and they might get that in England too.

    And people have been imprisoned without charge or trial for far too long.
    12 million people going abroad means a dozen "one in a million" chances happening. Then what? Then are we back at square one having a national lockdown next winter?

    You won't get that in England as it won't be in England to happen. It could be overseas

    Having a holiday in the UK is not "imprisoned without charge or trial" - but people bringing this bastard bug back causing us to return to lockdown again? That would be.
    I don't often write this, but yes you are correct.

    However, we are not like those post war peasants who took rationing on the chin. Just think back to last summer's holiday destination gamers. They needed a foreign holiday, and if they didn't get one, they will be doubly keen to book this year.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,093

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    On the subject of ludicrous tunnel projects, why not build a tunnel from Penzance to the Isles of Scilly? 28 miles from Lands End and pace the Faeroes, we could have a new station built under Hugh Town to provide direct access from London and the rest of the UK.

    Guaranteed supplies for the islands - no worries if the weather closes down flights or the Scillonian.

    From Hugh Town, underground cycle ways or a light railway linking the islands - perhaps a tram to Tresco for the gardens.

    Of course, what we really need to do is harness the genius of our great universities to crack the problem of teleportation. If we could simply beam people and cargo from point to point instantaneously then all these other transport megaprojects would no longer be needed.
    And we could beam several people off planet altogether to Mars.

    I can think of several candidates to make the first try...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,769
    Any takers for Boris coming on the telly tomorrow and saying

    "Ah, fuck it, do what you like...."

    Contrarian?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,850
    TimT said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Don't know if this was done on previous thread, but these are horrific results for kids' mental health.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/21/uk-17-year-olds-mental-health-crisis

    7% of 17 yo attempting suicide and 24% self harming in the last year.
    We don't have the health infrastructure to deal with such a tsunami. It will require a revolution.
    Maybe ( from previous discussions) something for Labour to champion?

    The problem with stats like the 7% one is that it’s obviously not true.
    *Obviously*?
    7% sounds entirely believable to me.
    There were 5691 suicides in E and W in 2019, among all ages. 7% of 17 year olds is about 42,000. Either the attempts are a bit half hearted, or they are being dramatic, or the survey is rubbish or our system is very good at saving them. Or any combination. All still worrying however. And of course it really happens, sadly I have known a few.

    2 college friends, one work colleague, and a family member. Yes, it's real.
    Indeed, two members of my extended family in 2020. Both men in their mid 40s too unable to handle lockdown life I think.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 2,630
    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    On the subject of ludicrous tunnel projects, why not build a tunnel from Penzance to the Isles of Scilly? 28 miles from Lands End and pace the Faeroes, we could have a new station built under Hugh Town to provide direct access from London and the rest of the UK.

    Guaranteed supplies for the islands - no worries if the weather closes down flights or the Scillonian.

    From Hugh Town, underground cycle ways or a light railway linking the islands - perhaps a tram to Tresco for the gardens.

    Of course, what we really need to do is harness the genius of our great universities to crack the problem of teleportation. If we could simply beam people and cargo from point to point instantaneously then all these other transport megaprojects would no longer be needed.
    And we could beam several people off planet altogether to Mars.

    I can think of several candidates to make the first try...
    Surely you mean the Sun's core ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,093
    edited February 21

    Alistair said:

    The numbers in Scotland are fucking insane to be (partially) bringing schools back.

    The First Minister of Scotland is human, just like the PM. She's under pressure to release the kiddies from prison too.

    OTOH, she has built her reputation for handling the whole thing better on the back of cautious decisions.

    There's every reason to suppose that she's concluded based on advice that there's probably little harm in letting a limited number of small children back into educational settings, though in practice there is risk attached to any decision and we don't know how big a chance her boffins have told her she's taking. We'll just have to wait and see I suppose.
    All of these things are calculated risks.

    I think she is probably making the right call given current levels in Scotland, but I think she also may need to be realistic about how many staff will have to be off isolating/shielding at any given point, which will be disruptive.

    That’s also true for England, of course.
  • Alistair said:

    The numbers in Scotland are fucking insane to be (partially) bringing schools back.

    The positivity rate for Scotland has been scary for weeks.

    Something is not right there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,769

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    On the subject of ludicrous tunnel projects, why not build a tunnel from Penzance to the Isles of Scilly? 28 miles from Lands End and pace the Faeroes, we could have a new station built under Hugh Town to provide direct access from London and the rest of the UK.

    Guaranteed supplies for the islands - no worries if the weather closes down flights or the Scillonian.

    From Hugh Town, underground cycle ways or a light railway linking the islands - perhaps a tram to Tresco for the gardens.

    Of course, what we really need to do is harness the genius of our great universities to crack the problem of teleportation. If we could simply beam people and cargo from point to point instantaneously then all these other transport megaprojects would no longer be needed.
    EU would still insist on a border somewhere between teleport stations.....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,420

    Any takers for Boris coming on the telly tomorrow and saying

    "Ah, fuck it, do what you like...."

    Contrarian?

    If Johnson was still Cummings's wingman, maybe. But he's taking his orders from NutNuts now
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,093

    I intend to basically relive Fresher's Week once restrictions are lifted.

    Traffic cones, be afraid.....
    I never saw the point of that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,093
    TimT said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    On the subject of ludicrous tunnel projects, why not build a tunnel from Penzance to the Isles of Scilly? 28 miles from Lands End and pace the Faeroes, we could have a new station built under Hugh Town to provide direct access from London and the rest of the UK.

    Guaranteed supplies for the islands - no worries if the weather closes down flights or the Scillonian.

    From Hugh Town, underground cycle ways or a light railway linking the islands - perhaps a tram to Tresco for the gardens.

    Of course, what we really need to do is harness the genius of our great universities to crack the problem of teleportation. If we could simply beam people and cargo from point to point instantaneously then all these other transport megaprojects would no longer be needed.
    And we could beam several people off planet altogether to Mars.

    I can think of several candidates to make the first try...
    Surely you mean the Sun's core ...
    Beaming Gavin Williamson, Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman into the sun’s core would be a gravitational disaster that would cause the heat death of the universe.

    That seems excessive.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,420

    Alistair said:

    The numbers in Scotland are fucking insane to be (partially) bringing schools back.

    The First Minister of Scotland is human, just like the PM. She's under pressure to release the kiddies from prison too.

    OTOH, she has built her reputation for handling the whole thing better on the back of cautious decisions.

    There's every reason to suppose that she's concluded based on advice that there's probably little harm in letting a limited number of small children back into educational settings, though in practice there is risk attached to any decision and we don't know how big a chance her boffins have told her she's taking. We'll just have to wait and see I suppose.

    EDIT: it's not just us, the Germans are clucking over the schools as well (and, unlike in the UK, their case load is already going up):

    Germany’s health minister has called for caution as schools prepare to reopen this week despite a rise in the number of coronavirus cases.

    “The virus isn’t making it easy for us,” Spahn told German broadcaster ARD. “We’re seeing that the numbers are climbing again. That’s annoying, and it brings back some uncertainty. That’s why caution, testing and vaccinating must continue to guide our path.”

    The country has seen a recent slight rise in cases after a partial lockdown, imposed in mid-November, brought down infections. The rise has been attributed to the more transmissible variant first detected in the UK.

    Schools and daycare centres are set to reopen in 10 German regions from Monday, with restrictions like mask-wearing in classrooms and ventilation planned.

    Spahn said a balance has to be struck between protecting Germans from the risks posed by new, more infectious virus strains and the necessity for children to have some kind of “normal daily life”.

    He said the effect of schools reopening will be monitored closely.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/feb/21/coronavirus-live-news-australia-begins-vaccine-rollout-israel-says-pfizer-jab-96-effective
    Nippy and Johnson are human?

    Citation needed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 90,119
    edited February 21

    I intend to basically relive Fresher's Week once restrictions are lifted.

    Traffic cones, be afraid.....
    Fresher's week for me was hilarious, I was a good muslim boy then but the absolute highlight for me was seeing one guy get so violently sick from all the booze he drank that he called his mother at 3am in the morning to come look after him.

    His mother wasn't impressed as she lived over 250 miles away.

    He never did live that down.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    All fine and dandy, except people are expecting their foreign jolly after being locked away for 18 months.

    With supply and demand being such, a week in a guesthouse in Skegness will be significantly more than a fortnight including flights to the Rui Resort Hotel in Gran Canaria would normally cost. Red Wallers will be spitting bullets!

    To be frank - so freaking what?

    It ought to be reasonable to say that the vaccinations in Europe aren't far enough, so its not safe to travel to Europe for vacations this summer - but its safe to have vacations at home and next year we'll be able to have sunny holidays abroad.

    At least then people will know what to expect and can make plans.
    It's vaccinations in the UK that matter. If people have been vaccinated here, I don't see why they can't go where they like. There may be a one in a million risk of them contracting a so far undetected and dangerous new variant, but that'll always be there, and they might get that in England too.

    And people have been imprisoned without charge or trial for far too long.
    12 million people going abroad means a dozen "one in a million" chances happening. Then what? Then are we back at square one having a national lockdown next winter?

    You won't get that in England as it won't be in England to happen. It could be overseas

    Having a holiday in the UK is not "imprisoned without charge or trial" - but people bringing this bastard bug back causing us to return to lockdown again? That would be.
    But who will the 12 (or 200) infect?

    The point about vaccinations is that it pushes the number of people who can be infected down, and therefore quashes R. Once you have herd immunity, then absent some super variant, there is no room for an imported case to spread.

    Now, we clearly need to be careful about said super variants. But watch Israel, their borders (thanks to being a religious hub) are opening up come mid-March (and are already open if you want to go to a wedding or Bah Mitzvah).

    If no variants get a hold there after two months of a vaccinated people and open borders, then we can be increasingly comfortable they're not going to arrive.

    Just as you can be insufficiently cautious, you can attempt to manage every single risk, and do more harm.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,391

    Alistair said:

    The numbers in Scotland are fucking insane to be (partially) bringing schools back.

    The positivity rate for Scotland has been scary for weeks.

    Something is not right there.
    In Lothian cases having been heading upwards for the last few days.

    Cases are going up yet schools are going back. Madness.

    (that said despite the high positivity rate the ONS estimates still have Scotland with a lower infection rate than England)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,769
    stodge said:

    Slightly more on topic, the virus figures continue to head robustly in the right direction.

    According to the Daily Mail (so it must be true), all over 50s in East London are due to have had their first vaccination by April 4th so that's a month behind the "leading" areas but encouraging nonetheless.

    Schools open March 8th.

    Most non-essential retail March 29th (in time for Easter so I will be bale to sit and snarl at other people at my favourite cafe in the Barking Road). I imagine race meetings may be able to have limited numbers in attendance from then as well. I suspect there will only be a token crowd for the National.

    Pubs - where some PBers seem to want to spend every waking or indeed unconscious hour- seem to be the litmus test of normality. Table service could be on the 29th March but the "propping up of the bar" won't happen for a while.

    The second great barometer of normality - the haircut - could be the 29th March but I suspect three weeks after that.

    Damn, I'm gonna look rough by mid-April....

    I need to get a new passport, but forget it if I have a reminder of THIS hair for ten years!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,924
    edited February 21
    Good for Youth Hostels.

    And for National Trust B&B - are there many of those?

    And still time for @MarqueeMark to set up Moth Glamping.
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