Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
No. Watching the daily positive cases coming down is one of the only things that gives me optimism and hope.
Deaths and hospitalisations are what actually matter.
Well not quite. Until a vast majority of our population is vaccinated higher cases still leads to higher hospitalisations and higher deaths. They are all linked.
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
TBF, discounting a brief two week Tier 3 interlude in early December, it’s been 4 months in Kent.
Public order has been maintained because of the promise of vaccines. Now the vaccines are here. That noise you can hear is the goalposts being dismantled and moved wholesale to a point, 1,000 cases a day, it will be inordinately difficult to reach and maintain.
And so, forever lockdown.
A forever lockdown is quite literally impossible. Society will cease to function. While I appreciate that you are a Telegraph reader today, your daily paper reading habits do appear to reflect whichever paper is reporting the news that reflects your own views on this.
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
You also need to grow a pair yourself.
Email your MP. Find out who your councillors are and email them too.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
And another six months to July.
For a six year old that is 25% of their lives.
My then five year old took the first lockdown much harder than my then three year old - she was used to going to school, seeing her friends, going to birthday parties and to have all that uprooted she really, really struggled with. The three year old was used to being at home anyway so not much difference.
This lockdown though (and even the autumn term with restrictions but no lockdown) my four year old has found much harder than the six year old. She's started school and made friends but can't do anything everyone normally takes for granted. She wants to invite her friend to her house to play, or go play at her friends. She wants to go to birthday parties. She's always had these things to look forward to when she's older and now she's the right age she's denied it and really struggling with that.
Coming towards the end of her first school year and she has NEVER in her life been able to play outside of school with a school friend.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
I'm sorry to hear that mate and I agree with basically all of what you're saying.
This lockdown has been the worst and if it hadn't been for our house move I think it would have been a lot worse because I'd have had nothing outside of work to set my mind to. Now that it's done both my wife and I are definitely struggling. We're not people who can simply sit in front of the TV and stay there for hours on end and we have pretty active social lives in normal times.
I really miss just being able to message a mate and head to the pub or brewery bar on a Saturday afternoon. I miss being able to meet my wife at 11pm somewhere in the square mile on Thursday or Friday after work drinks and then head for a late dinner and stay out even later for drinks.
The idea that some NHS bod thinks that we need to keep social distancing indefinitely is completely depressing. I'm grateful that MPs like Steve Baker exist to ensure that boot of normal life is kept on the PM's neck and rule by scientist isn't really on the cards.
Its a bit rich that people whose argument you have spent the last year pouring scorn on are suddenly being relied on to get you out of a dreadful situation.
Email your own MP. Email your councillors.
Cut some mouthy anti-lockdown sceptic organisation a small cheque.
You will feel better. Trust me.
This has been my point over the past days and weeks.
People only care, as we are seeing on here now, when govt actions crosses their own red line regarding lockdowns. They dismiss all, er, contrarian voices until that moment. Then they realise that those voices were a vital part of the overall message to government that they should not be taking this action with out scrutiny at every stage. Not just now that people have decided we might be in the endgame.
As I have long said India would be less affected than the West by Covid as it has an average life expectancy of only 69 compared to over 80 in most of the West and the death rate from Covid is highest amongst over 70s and especially over 80s
As I have long said India would be less affected than the West by Covid as it has an average life expectancy of only 69 compared to over 80 in most of the West and the death rate from Covid is highest amongst over 70s and especially over 80s
India, Florida, South Dakota, Sweden.
These countries and states are driving a coach and horses through the post hoc ergo propter hoc argument of the lockdown fanatics.
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
You also need to grow a pair yourself.
Email your MP. Find out who your councillors are and email them too.
It`s a good point. Dissent seems pointless though against a government which is driven so much by opinion polls and focus groups, which all show support for authoritarian measures. It`s terrifying.
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
TBF, discounting a brief two week Tier 3 interlude in early December, it’s been 4 months in Kent.
Public order has been maintained because of the promise of vaccines. Now the vaccines are here. That noise you can hear is the goalposts being dismantled and moved wholesale to a point, 1,000 cases a day, it will be inordinately difficult to reach and maintain.
And so, forever lockdown.
A forever lockdown is quite literally impossible. Society will cease to function. While I appreciate that you are a Telegraph reader today, your daily paper reading habits do appear to reflect whichever paper is reporting the news that reflects your own views on this.
Well I am myself skeptical of the telegraph's 'news' to be fair. However, it is a news item that supports my argument, and so why wouldn't I use it? Everybody else does. And I have spent the last year on here taking an absolute battering, so I am used to using everything at my disposal.
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
TBF, discounting a brief two week Tier 3 interlude in early December, it’s been 4 months in Kent.
Public order has been maintained because of the promise of vaccines. Now the vaccines are here. That noise you can hear is the goalposts being dismantled and moved wholesale to a point, 1,000 cases a day, it will be inordinately difficult to reach and maintain.
And so, forever lockdown.
A forever lockdown is quite literally impossible. Society will cease to function. While I appreciate that you are a Telegraph reader today, your daily paper reading habits do appear to reflect whichever paper is reporting the news that reflects your own views on this.
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
TBF, discounting a brief two week Tier 3 interlude in early December, it’s been 4 months in Kent.
Public order has been maintained because of the promise of vaccines. Now the vaccines are here. That noise you can hear is the goalposts being dismantled and moved wholesale to a point, 1,000 cases a day, it will be inordinately difficult to reach and maintain.
And so, forever lockdown.
A forever lockdown is quite literally impossible. Society will cease to function. While I appreciate that you are a Telegraph reader today, your daily paper reading habits do appear to reflect whichever paper is reporting the news that reflects your own views on this.
Well I am myself skeptical of the telegraph's 'news' to be fair. However, it is a news item that supports my argument, and so why wouldn't I use it? Everybody else does. And I have spent the last year on here taking an absolute battering, so I am used to using everything at my disposal.
And rightly so because your view is hysterical.
Nobody WANTS lockdown. The government doesn't WANT lockdown either.
Where our view and yours differ is whether its deemed necessary. And it clearly is necessary.
The government is doing well the one thing that can end this nightmare: vaccinations.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
I'm sorry to hear that mate and I agree with basically all of what you're saying.
This lockdown has been the worst and if it hadn't been for our house move I think it would have been a lot worse because I'd have had nothing outside of work to set my mind to. Now that it's done both my wife and I are definitely struggling. We're not people who can simply sit in front of the TV and stay there for hours on end and we have pretty active social lives in normal times.
I really miss just being able to message a mate and head to the pub or brewery bar on a Saturday afternoon. I miss being able to meet my wife at 11pm somewhere in the square mile on Thursday or Friday after work drinks and then head for a late dinner and stay out even later for drinks.
The idea that some NHS bod thinks that we need to keep social distancing indefinitely is completely depressing. I'm grateful that MPs like Steve Baker exist to ensure that boot of normal life is kept on the PM's neck and rule by scientist isn't really on the cards.
Its a bit rich that people whose argument you have spent the last year pouring scorn on are suddenly being relied on to get you out of a dreadful situation.
Email your own MP. Email your councillors.
Cut some mouthy anti-lockdown sceptic organisation a small cheque.
You will feel better. Trust me.
This has been my point over the past days and weeks.
People only care, as we are seeing on here now, when govt actions crosses their own red line regarding lockdowns. They dismiss all, er, contrarian voices until that moment. Then they realise that those voices were a vital part of the overall message to government that they should not be taking this action with out scrutiny at every stage. Not just now that people have decided we might be in the endgame.
Indeed and thanks again Topping for your support that my voice can be heard. And to Mike and TSE. They could have blocked me when my views were, lets face it, at the margins. Maybe they still are. They didn't.
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
TBF, discounting a brief two week Tier 3 interlude in early December, it’s been 4 months in Kent.
Public order has been maintained because of the promise of vaccines. Now the vaccines are here. That noise you can hear is the goalposts being dismantled and moved wholesale to a point, 1,000 cases a day, it will be inordinately difficult to reach and maintain.
And so, forever lockdown.
A forever lockdown is quite literally impossible. Society will cease to function. While I appreciate that you are a Telegraph reader today, your daily paper reading habits do appear to reflect whichever paper is reporting the news that reflects your own views on this.
Well I am myself skeptical of the telegraph's 'news' to be fair. However, it is a news item that supports my argument, and so why wouldn't I use it? Everybody else does. And I have spent the last year on here taking an absolute battering, so I am used to using everything at my disposal.
"...it is a news item that supports my argument, and so why wouldn't I use it?" - and there you have it.
"In the Commons there’s now even a growing group of Tory MPs who are pressing hard for change"
Numbers please? Because that is not what I am hearing.
There is one over-arching aim in Government - never again will there be Covid lockdowns. We will come out of lockdown when it is clear there will never be a need for more. Now, that might be quick, once the confirmation is in that a) the vaccines are as good as is hoped and b) the numbers for deliveries of those vaccines to give the jab to everyone are secured.
But if it needs an extra month to be completely sure, then the Government will take the extra pain to be able to say to the UK "Covid has been banished as an impediment to getting on with your life within this country* ". That is the political win within reach.
*Foreign travel for work or holibobs will be the very last thing to get the green light - and that could be quite some time. The UK has the genome testing capacity to know how safe it really is outside our borders. Again, the way the virus has retreated in just the past five weeks around the globe means the scope for mutations is already reducing markedly. If it continues - wonderful. But the win will not be lightly lost.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. We will be opening earlier than most - restaurants, pubs, museums, galleries, the stuff to make a memorable holiday here. An obvious choice to come here (if you can find the accommodation). I have it on very good authority that the Governor of the Bank of England is very chipper about our prospects for coming out of Covid in a most robust fashion. Things are looking up. Prepare for a much, much better year. But only when it is beaten to the point where it isn't wrecking our lives ever again.
Very good post @MarqueeMark but can you clarify a couple of things?
I understood that when we come out it will be back into the tier system - is that how you understand it?
Secondly, you appear to be suggesting that foreign travellers will be permitted to travel into the country but UK citizens will be barred from travelling out.
Yes, tiers when we reopen - but again, only reducing. So unlikely to be many seeing tier 1 or 2 immediately.
On foreign travel, the ban will stay as the last Covid measure to go. Even then, when lifted, the message will continue to be exercise caution: if you lose your money, there'll be no compensation from the Government. If we are first out of lockdowns, that still means you risk spending 14 days in quarantine when you arrive at a place that is still way behind us.
So this year, give Scotland a try instead. You'll love it.
Er...no, we don’t need to give Hyufd ideas about trying Scotland, thanks.
Are saying he won't tank me?
How does one get to Scotland anyway? I`m fucked if I`m driving ten hours there and ten hours back. Train and then car hire I guess?
Nine hours to Oban from Central London is/was a general rule of thumb. Otherwise take one of the most beautiful train journeys (certainly when you get north of Leeds) on the ECML KingsX to Edinburgh.
Edit: and sit on the right of the train as it goes through Berwick.
Getting to Scotland is easy thanks, it's 15 minutes drive away. Except you are almost certainly breaking some law by going there, and coming back. But if you have to go by train from London don't miss the view from Durham station.
The view of what from Durham station?
Durham Cathedral and University College (i.e. the castle)
Question for Internet experts: is there any kind of Nigel Farage blocking software that can be used with YouTube?
I am very happy for him that he has finally found his niche as a high-tech door-to-door salesman. But I don't want to see or hear him.
Question for any social media experts: I have a burning need to virtue signal my disdain for a political figure but posting on a political website is no longer doing it for me: do you have any further suggestions?
I could do with that software as well. Perhaps it could block out all liars like Johnson Gove and Farage.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
I'm sorry to hear that mate and I agree with basically all of what you're saying.
This lockdown has been the worst and if it hadn't been for our house move I think it would have been a lot worse because I'd have had nothing outside of work to set my mind to. Now that it's done both my wife and I are definitely struggling. We're not people who can simply sit in front of the TV and stay there for hours on end and we have pretty active social lives in normal times.
I really miss just being able to message a mate and head to the pub or brewery bar on a Saturday afternoon. I miss being able to meet my wife at 11pm somewhere in the square mile on Thursday or Friday after work drinks and then head for a late dinner and stay out even later for drinks.
The idea that some NHS bod thinks that we need to keep social distancing indefinitely is completely depressing. I'm grateful that MPs like Steve Baker exist to ensure that boot of normal life is kept on the PM's neck and rule by scientist isn't really on the cards.
Its a bit rich that people whose argument you have spent the last year pouring scorn on are suddenly being relied on to get you out of a dreadful situation.
Email your own MP. Email your councillors.
Cut some mouthy anti-lockdown sceptic organisation a small cheque.
You will feel better. Trust me.
I haven't poured any scorn on people who say lockdown isn't a good long term solution. In fact I've been doing the opposite. Being against it as a long term solution doesn't mean it isn't effective at bringing cases down in the short term. In fact I've constantly been saying that without a longer term system in place lockdowns are basically not a really useful way of dealing with this and just pile misery onto people.
Ultimately, I take issue with people who say lockdown doesn't work, it obviously does one only needs to look at our current data to see that. In fact with vaccines we finally have a way out of this shit of lockdown, not lockdown then more lockdown. You can go back across all of my posts and I've been very consistent in this view, lockdown is a mechanism for reducing cases in the short term while other systems should be put in place (border controls, isolation, quarantine) to ensure cases don't explode again after unlocking. They aren't an end state as some people want them to be.
If anything I'd have more in common with Steve Baker than Matt Hancock with the added proviso that we need proper border controls and a fully open internal economy with no social distancing. I couldn't give a fuck if people can't travel in and out for the next 6-8 months.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
100% zero-emissions capable, all-electric or plug-in hybrid, by 2024.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
All PHEV/BEV by 2024 and 100% BEV by 2030.
Ford didn't sell a single electric car in Europe last year and no manufacturer wants to be the last IC hold out.
One thing I wonder about is whether children especially will be left with any mental scarring like OCD, agoraphobia or germophobia from this past year.
Don't know how others with children are finding it but my six year old now is almost religiously trying to follow the rules. Whenever she washes her hands she sings out loud Happy Birthday To Me twice as she washes her hands.
On the one hand it's good to be healthy, on the other hand I don't want it to become too much for her. Striking the right balance is tough.
The reopening timetable in the header is a tad disappointing. I'd hoped for something about a month quicker. But if that's how it pans out, and this lockdown proves to be the last, then in the grand scheme of things I'll consider it a result.
Or to put it another way - if right now you offer me normality resuming (and for good) in July of this year, and you guarantee that, I am biting your hand off.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Isn't this more to do with governments around the world beginning to set deadlines for the end of sales of cars powered by fossil fuels?
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
100% zero-emissions capable, all-electric or plug-in hybrid, by 2024.
Interesting. I'm going to probably need to get a new car once/if I rejoin the land of employment in the summer. I'm starting to wonder whether I should invest (using this term very loosely) in an electric car. I have an electric charging port that came with the house that has never been used...
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
On balance, I think I've enjoyed the various lockdowns. I've certainly never got so much DIY done; I've repainted the entire house and put a new roof on the barn.
The only thing I've really missed are track days. Still booked for Spa for September which could be optimistic.
Haven't you been using the entire national motorway network as your track?
The proliferation of average speed cameras has ended Smokey Nagata style antics on M roads. Deserted local A roads now form the local "Durabergring". I've also got some Luxembourgois plates I bought off eBay for stealth mode.
In Brexit related news British track days are getting very expensive due to demand as it's now a colossal pain in the dick to take a non V5 vehicle (ie track day special) to Europe.
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
It's definitely in the list of "good problems to have" in a vaccination rollout - there ought to be a team of boffins hopefully solving what is essentially an optimisation problem though here.
"In the Commons there’s now even a growing group of Tory MPs who are pressing hard for change"
Numbers please? Because that is not what I am hearing.
There is one over-arching aim in Government - never again will there be Covid lockdowns. We will come out of lockdown when it is clear there will never be a need for more. Now, that might be quick, once the confirmation is in that a) the vaccines are as good as is hoped and b) the numbers for deliveries of those vaccines to give the jab to everyone are secured.
But if it needs an extra month to be completely sure, then the Government will take the extra pain to be able to say to the UK "Covid has been banished as an impediment to getting on with your life within this country* ". That is the political win within reach.
*Foreign travel for work or holibobs will be the very last thing to get the green light - and that could be quite some time. The UK has the genome testing capacity to know how safe it really is outside our borders. Again, the way the virus has retreated in just the past five weeks around the globe means the scope for mutations is already reducing markedly. If it continues - wonderful. But the win will not be lightly lost.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. We will be opening earlier than most - restaurants, pubs, museums, galleries, the stuff to make a memorable holiday here. An obvious choice to come here (if you can find the accommodation). I have it on very good authority that the Governor of the Bank of England is very chipper about our prospects for coming out of Covid in a most robust fashion. Things are looking up. Prepare for a much, much better year. But only when it is beaten to the point where it isn't wrecking our lives ever again.
Very good post @MarqueeMark but can you clarify a couple of things?
I understood that when we come out it will be back into the tier system - is that how you understand it?
Secondly, you appear to be suggesting that foreign travellers will be permitted to travel into the country but UK citizens will be barred from travelling out.
Yes, tiers when we reopen - but again, only reducing. So unlikely to be many seeing tier 1 or 2 immediately.
On foreign travel, the ban will stay as the last Covid measure to go. Even then, when lifted, the message will continue to be exercise caution: if you lose your money, there'll be no compensation from the Government. If we are first out of lockdowns, that still means you risk spending 14 days in quarantine when you arrive at a place that is still way behind us.
So this year, give Scotland a try instead. You'll love it.
Er...no, we don’t need to give Hyufd ideas about trying Scotland, thanks.
Are saying he won't tank me?
How does one get to Scotland anyway? I`m fucked if I`m driving ten hours there and ten hours back. Train and then car hire I guess?
Nine hours to Oban from Central London is/was a general rule of thumb. Otherwise take one of the most beautiful train journeys (certainly when you get north of Leeds) on the ECML KingsX to Edinburgh.
Edit: and sit on the right of the train as it goes through Berwick.
In what world does the ECML go through Leeds, that diverts at Doncaster and the mainline goes to York.
South of York it's a bit meh though and being frank I prefer heading North rather than South so north of Darlington would be my suggestion.
Always travel on the East side of the train as well you want to see the coast north of Newcastle.
On topic, I guess this hinges on what your definition of "lockdown" means? Some seem to think it applies for as long as maskwearing, social distancing and a rule of 6 apply.
My definition is it ends when you're told you no longer must "stay at home", and can travel for social, domestic and leisure purposes as well as business ones.
Looking at the Mail definitions in the thread header that looks like either April or May to me, and not as late as July.
Yep.
The mystery of India is continuing to cause head scratching amongst scientists. One theory is that mask wearing is responsible.
There's obviously by now lots of evidence that a good mask prevents a lot of airborne virus transmission as well as the more obvious droplet one.
I mention this because the Gov't could sell this pretty strongly: put up with mask wearing for a while in indoor public venues as the price we pay for ending of almost all other restrictions.
If that was the offer almost everyone in the country would take it. Except Laurence Fox, obvs.
I thought that South Asians are supposed to be MORE susceptible to Covid - yet India is full of... South Asians!
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
No. Watching the daily positive cases coming down is one of the only things that gives me optimism and hope.
Deaths and hospitalisations are what actually matter.
Well not quite. Until a vast majority of our population is vaccinated higher cases still leads to higher hospitalisations and higher deaths. They are all linked.
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
But the issue is that the scientists are moving the goalposts. Rishi was right, we were sold this lockdown as a way to protect the NHS from collapse. Now we're being told it's a way to get cases down. How long until that becomes getting cases to zero before we're allowed out of it?
No. The line must be kept at ensuring the NHS doesn't collapse, we're on the way to achieving that in a lasting way by ensuring all people at risk of ending up on hospital from this will be immunised by the end of April (in reality probably the end of March) and all adults by August (more likely June). The idea that once this is achieved we should stay in lockdown because cases are high is simply unacceptable and the scientists are moving the goalposts. We can't have rule by SAGE, no one voted for them.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
100% zero-emissions capable, all-electric or plug-in hybrid, by 2024.
Interesting. I'm going to probably need to get a new car once/if I rejoin the land of employment in the summer. I'm starting to wonder whether I should invest (using this term very loosely) in an electric car. I have an electric charging port that came with the house that has never been used...
If you've already got the port then I'd think it's a great idea.
That's my biggest limiter at the minute. I've still got the same car I bought in 2010 and I'm keeping it until electric cars are affordable without at home ports, or the car breaks down beyond economic repair.
I see no point in ever buying a new ICE vehicle again.
On topic, I guess this hinges on what your definition of "lockdown" means? Some seem to think it applies for as long as maskwearing, social distancing and a rule of 6 apply.
My definition is it ends when you're told you no longer must "stay at home", and can travel for social, domestic and leisure purposes as well as business ones.
Looking at the Mail definitions in the thread header that looks like either April or May to me, and not as late as July.
Yep.
The mystery of India is continuing to cause head scratching amongst scientists. One theory is that mask wearing is responsible.
There's obviously by now lots of evidence that a good mask prevents a lot of airborne virus transmission as well as the more obvious droplet one.
I mention this because the Gov't could sell this pretty strongly: put up with mask wearing for a while in indoor public venues as the price we pay for ending of almost all other restrictions.
If that was the offer almost everyone in the country would take it. Except Laurence Fox, obvs.
I thought that South Asians are supposed to be MORE susceptible to Covid - yet India is full of... South Asians!
Indeed, a mystery...
UV radiation helping to break down the virus so people receiving immunity through 'injured' viral transmission ?
Best wishes @Casino_Royale. I share the same symptoms and thoughts at the moment so I know what it's like and don't blame you whatsoever for pushing the boundaries.
Absolutely. Thanks for a thoughtful post @Casino_Royale. My very best wishes to you. It is horrible, for many people. I am not quite there yet but that's my line of travel. Such testimonies are why I become so enraged with the PB Stasi on here branding people "selfish" and "dickheads" etc etc for pushing the boundaries. They have no insight into the lives of others.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
I'm sorry to hear that mate and I agree with basically all of what you're saying.
This lockdown has been the worst and if it hadn't been for our house move I think it would have been a lot worse because I'd have had nothing outside of work to set my mind to. Now that it's done both my wife and I are definitely struggling. We're not people who can simply sit in front of the TV and stay there for hours on end and we have pretty active social lives in normal times.
I really miss just being able to message a mate and head to the pub or brewery bar on a Saturday afternoon. I miss being able to meet my wife at 11pm somewhere in the square mile on Thursday or Friday after work drinks and then head for a late dinner and stay out even later for drinks.
The idea that some NHS bod thinks that we need to keep social distancing indefinitely is completely depressing. I'm grateful that MPs like Steve Baker exist to ensure that boot of normal life is kept on the PM's neck and rule by scientist isn't really on the cards.
Its a bit rich that people whose argument you have spent the last year pouring scorn on are suddenly being relied on to get you out of a dreadful situation.
Email your own MP. Email your councillors.
Cut some mouthy anti-lockdown sceptic organisation a small cheque.
You will feel better. Trust me.
I haven't poured any scorn on people who say lockdown isn't a good long term solution. In fact I've been doing the opposite. Being against it as a long term solution doesn't mean it isn't effective at bringing cases down in the short term. In fact I've constantly been saying that without a longer term system in place lockdowns are basically not a really useful way of dealing with this and just pile misery onto people.
Ultimately, I take issue with people who say lockdown doesn't work, it obviously does one only needs to look at our current data to see that. In fact with vaccines we finally have a way out of this shit of lockdown, not lockdown then more lockdown. You can go back across all of my posts and I've been very consistent in this view, lockdown is a mechanism for reducing cases in the short term while other systems should be put in place (border controls, isolation, quarantine) to ensure cases don't explode again after unlocking. They aren't an end state as some people want them to be.
If anything I'd have more in common with Steve Baker than Matt Hancock with the added proviso that we need proper border controls and a fully open internal economy with no social distancing. I couldn't give a fuck if people can't travel in and out for the next 6-8 months.
Yes, the Australia solution. Everyone vaccinated and everything open by the summer, but extreme care with international travel to make sure some new strain doesn’t get in and set us back to square one.
As someone living in a massive global crossroads, I’m resigned to quarantine next time I visit my parents. But I won’t have seen them in two years, so it’s definitely going to be worth it.
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
No. Watching the daily positive cases coming down is one of the only things that gives me optimism and hope.
Deaths and hospitalisations are what actually matter.
Well not quite. Until a vast majority of our population is vaccinated higher cases still leads to higher hospitalisations and higher deaths. They are all linked.
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
But the issue is that the scientists are moving the goalposts. Rishi was right, we were sold this lockdown as a way to protect the NHS from collapse. Now we're being told it's a way to get cases down. How long until that becomes getting cases to zero before we're allowed out of it?
No. The line must be kept at ensuring the NHS doesn't collapse, we're on the way to achieving that in a lasting way by ensuring all people at risk of ending up on hospital from this will be immunised by the end of April (in reality probably the end of March) and all adults by August (more likely June). The idea that once this is achieved we should stay in lockdown because cases are high is simply unacceptable and the scientists are moving the goalposts. We can't have rule by SAGE, no one voted for them.
Well if, once we've finished vaccinating the "priority" groups, hospitalisations and deaths are severely depressed despite rising cases, then you're right, no need to continue lockdown.
But we don't know when that'll be yet. And we also need to build in a certain number of weeks to allow for immunity to be built, otherwise people who have been vaccinated are still going to end up in hospital.
I think people are irrationally afraid of SAGE. Boris is chomping at the bit to unlock the country and won't let SAGE get in the way of that.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Isn't this more to do with governments around the world beginning to set deadlines for the end of sales of cars powered by fossil fuels?
Yes, but the point was that many on here derided Corbyn’s proposal as far-left lunacy whereas it has now become mainstream policy.
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
No. Watching the daily positive cases coming down is one of the only things that gives me optimism and hope.
Deaths and hospitalisations are what actually matter.
Well not quite. Until a vast majority of our population is vaccinated higher cases still leads to higher hospitalisations and higher deaths. They are all linked.
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
But the issue is that the scientists are moving the goalposts. Rishi was right, we were sold this lockdown as a way to protect the NHS from collapse. Now we're being told it's a way to get cases down. How long until that becomes getting cases to zero before we're allowed out of it?
It won't only be zero cases. It will be zero cases and no chances of any ever again. That's the only way you'll ensure that this is the last lockdown.
At some point we have to start takng risks again, if we're going to live in any kind of decent (or even non-bankrupt) society. We don't stop people driving just because a few thousand people each year are killed on the roads.
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
And another six months to July.
For a six year old that is 25% of their lives.
A six year old has had 12 6 months periods in their life, one more makes 13 so 1/13th of their lifes or 7,7% roughly
Keep going I'd say, although perhaps their supply should be reduced.
Maybe they should start doing face to face consultations with refuseniks and having doctors speak to them to explain the benefits. I know that my cousin has managed to convince a fair few older people to have the jab despite being sceptical over them. Facetime with an actual doctor made a huge difference for them apparently.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Isn't this more to do with governments around the world beginning to set deadlines for the end of sales of cars powered by fossil fuels?
Yes, but the point was that many on here derided Corbyn’s proposal as far-left lunacy whereas it has now become mainstream policy.
No I don't think that's accurate.
People have long advocated electric as the future, the only question was at what timescale the technology would be there. The technology has come along in leaps and bounds now.
On balance, I think I've enjoyed the various lockdowns. I've certainly never got so much DIY done; I've repainted the entire house and put a new roof on the barn.
The only thing I've really missed are track days. Still booked for Spa for September which could be optimistic.
Haven't you been using the entire national motorway network as your track?
The proliferation of average speed cameras has ended Smokey Nagata style antics on M roads. Deserted local A roads now form the local "Durabergring". I've also got some Luxembourgois plates I bought off eBay for stealth mode.
In Brexit related news British track days are getting very expensive due to demand as it's now a colossal pain in the dick to take a non V5 vehicle (ie track day special) to Europe.
You got your name on the list for the new GT3?
No, the 992 GT3 RS strays a little bit too far from the 911 ethos for me. It's widebody only and has multilink front suspension instead of McP struts. It'll probably be a better car on the track (although the manual option is stunningly pointless and will have relatively poor resale value) but it's not for me.
I can get my 8,250rpm redline fix now I've got my 991.2 GT3 Cup running and have driven it on the road a few times for the lols. The Cosworth cloud telemetry appears to be fucked beyond repair though.
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
And another six months to July.
For a six year old that is 25% of their lives.
A six year old has had 12 6 months periods in their life, one more makes 13 so 1/13th of their lifes or 7,7% roughly
Lockdown began last March and has never been fully lifted here at least.
March 2020 to July 2021 is a quarter of my eldests life. Longer for my youngest.
It will be about 40% of my eldests schooling years to date. 100% of my youngest to date.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
I'm sorry to hear that mate and I agree with basically all of what you're saying.
This lockdown has been the worst and if it hadn't been for our house move I think it would have been a lot worse because I'd have had nothing outside of work to set my mind to. Now that it's done both my wife and I are definitely struggling. We're not people who can simply sit in front of the TV and stay there for hours on end and we have pretty active social lives in normal times.
I really miss just being able to message a mate and head to the pub or brewery bar on a Saturday afternoon. I miss being able to meet my wife at 11pm somewhere in the square mile on Thursday or Friday after work drinks and then head for a late dinner and stay out even later for drinks.
The idea that some NHS bod thinks that we need to keep social distancing indefinitely is completely depressing. I'm grateful that MPs like Steve Baker exist to ensure that boot of normal life is kept on the PM's neck and rule by scientist isn't really on the cards.
I'd echo this, sorry to hear @Casino_Royale - I have suffered with anxiety and depression several times in my life, so know how terribly debilitating it can be.
My tips below are what helps me, but they're mostly ones that others recommend too.
- cut down on caffeine. I only have two proper coffees or teas a day. Decaff is a godsend - cut down on booze - or cut down the days, at least - do more exercise - even when you feel like you cant - all the above being said, make sure to treat yourself well, and regularly. Whether its a nice relaxing bath, or an episode of your favourite TV show. Somewhat hilariously my current weekly treat is a tuna melt panini from Caffe Nero, something to look forward to on a Saturday - speak to family and friends about it - you'll largely already know who will be helpful (and kudos for telling us, it really helps to get things off your chest) - don't beat yourself up - there are exemptions to the rules for mental health reasons. Use them - don't use your phone too much. Especially in bed, or over meals etc.
Stay strong, and be reassured that good people are trying their damnedest to make life easier for everyone. Thank god for the backbenchers.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
100% zero-emissions capable, all-electric or plug-in hybrid, by 2024.
Interesting. I'm going to probably need to get a new car once/if I rejoin the land of employment in the summer. I'm starting to wonder whether I should invest (using this term very loosely) in an electric car. I have an electric charging port that came with the house that has never been used...
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Isn't this more to do with governments around the world beginning to set deadlines for the end of sales of cars powered by fossil fuels?
Yes, but the point was that many on here derided Corbyn’s proposal as far-left lunacy whereas it has now become mainstream policy.
No I don't think that's accurate.
People have long advocated electric as the future, the only question was at what timescale the technology would be there. The technology has come along in leaps and bounds now.
As a purchase for an average private car, it’s probably a couple of years away. Both infrastructure and model range are getting there quickly.
As a lease for a company car, the plug-in hybrids are already a total no-brainer because of the tax advantages. Even if you never plug them in!
Intriguing uptick in new cases on Zoe app yesterday, and places like Lancaster recently and Hull showing the kind of gradual increase that preceded its explosion of new cases in November... this may not be over yet, let’s hope they’re just noise within the downward trend... on a brighter note, got the jab yesterday and no side effects so going off to climb Ingleborough peak to enjoy views of the Irish Sea and the Lakes...
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
No. Watching the daily positive cases coming down is one of the only things that gives me optimism and hope.
Deaths and hospitalisations are what actually matter.
Well not quite. Until a vast majority of our population is vaccinated higher cases still leads to higher hospitalisations and higher deaths. They are all linked.
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
But the issue is that the scientists are moving the goalposts. Rishi was right, we were sold this lockdown as a way to protect the NHS from collapse. Now we're being told it's a way to get cases down. How long until that becomes getting cases to zero before we're allowed out of it?
No. The line must be kept at ensuring the NHS doesn't collapse, we're on the way to achieving that in a lasting way by ensuring all people at risk of ending up on hospital from this will be immunised by the end of April (in reality probably the end of March) and all adults by August (more likely June). The idea that once this is achieved we should stay in lockdown because cases are high is simply unacceptable and the scientists are moving the goalposts. We can't have rule by SAGE, no one voted for them.
We won't have rule by SAGE any more than we had rule by Cummings. The PM/ministers will listen to advisers, but they make the call and they are held to account for it.
The scientists (in the virology/public health/epidemiology areas) will advise on what's best for their area of expertise. The virologists and epidemiologists might well push for crushing cases to reduce chances of further damaging mutations (although, realistically, they are more likely to come from countries with few vaccinations and largely beyond our control other than border closing). The public health scientists should take a wider view on e.g. mental health, getting other health services back to full capacity. There should also be economists advising, who will likely push to open as much as possible as soon as possible.
Having said that, I agree that getting everyone* vaccinated (plus two-three weeks) should be a pretty clear end point. After that, things are as good as they're going to get, unless the NHS is on point of collapse there's no holding on a bit longer for things to get better, as they won't (they should be pretty good by then). The only justification for going longer would be a new vaccine-dodging strain that puts a lot of people in hospital or kills them (i.e. the already used vaccines don't prevent even severe illness) and a new vaccine for that very close. In that scenario, restrictions would still be to prevent NHS collapse, but we should not get into that situation.
* or indeed just the vulnerable for at least most restrictions
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
100% zero-emissions capable, all-electric or plug-in hybrid, by 2024.
Interesting. I'm going to probably need to get a new car once/if I rejoin the land of employment in the summer. I'm starting to wonder whether I should invest (using this term very loosely) in an electric car. I have an electric charging port that came with the house that has never been used...
If your not "into" cars (ie you don't own a bore scope and a corner balancing rig) then have a look at the Hyundai Ioniq. Hyundai have the best build quality in the industry.
On balance, I think I've enjoyed the various lockdowns. I've certainly never got so much DIY done; I've repainted the entire house and put a new roof on the barn.
The only thing I've really missed are track days. Still booked for Spa for September which could be optimistic.
Haven't you been using the entire national motorway network as your track?
The proliferation of average speed cameras has ended Smokey Nagata style antics on M roads. Deserted local A roads now form the local "Durabergring". I've also got some Luxembourgois plates I bought off eBay for stealth mode.
In Brexit related news British track days are getting very expensive due to demand as it's now a colossal pain in the dick to take a non V5 vehicle (ie track day special) to Europe.
I sold a car yesterday. I got a truly shit price. Old Audi A1diesel.
I ended up with a brand new A1 Sportline automatic once via a booking cock-up at the car hire place. Tiny boot but absolutely brilliant to drive. I ragged it around a very rainy Kent one summer week and loved every minute.
These days, I own a Q7, which is much more practical but not quite as fun!
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
Fair point, if someone tests positive for Corona but has no or very mild symptoms, so what?
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
All PHEV/BEV by 2024 and 100% BEV by 2030.
Ford didn't sell a single electric car in Europe last year and no manufacturer wants to be the last IC hold out.
All well and good, but electric cars still aren't nearly good enough to be usable for some users; currently I don't think there isn't a model on the market with the range I need (if there is, it's going to be at the £50-75k pricepoint) - one of my regular tips I run through almost two tanks of fuel in a day in my ICE car, but as that's less than 5 minutes it's not a problem.
However that isn't the biggest problem. One aspect that I don't think has been considered nearly enough is how much the electric car "revolution" will shaft the poor buying second hand. Currently you can buy a usable low end car for £300, and it will be good for any range you care to drive it; the car before my current car was a rough old diesel Skoda - I paid £300, did 20k miles without even servicing it, then eBayed it for £320! I paid £2k for a fairly sensible 8 year old car four years ago, and have put 100k miles on it. I can't see it ever being possible to buy a 400 mile range electric car for £2k, never mind £300. Maybe a Nissan Zoe with the range degraded to 50 miles, but that's going to be pretty useless.
It seems chronically unfair that only those rich enough to buy high end cars will be able to afford cars that have a usable range - but no-one seems to have thought about this in the mad dash for electric cars.
As a lease for a company car, the plug-in hybrids are already a total no-brainer because of the tax advantages. Even if you never plug them in!
That can't last much longer I would think because the Goldman Sachs Elf must be missing out on a lot of cash. Mrs DA pays 0% BiK tax on her Taycan which is utterly ridiculous. It's planned to go to 1% next year and 2% the year after but the electric revolution is happening very quickly now so I suspect they'll think again.
As I have long said India would be less affected than the West by Covid as it has an average life expectancy of only 69 compared to over 80 in most of the West and the death rate from Covid is highest amongst over 70s and especially over 80s
I don't think the age differences are sufficient to explain the disparity, though (and average age is a misleading number). Look at the approximate numbers for percentage of population over the age of 80: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.80UP.MA.5Y
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Isn't this more to do with governments around the world beginning to set deadlines for the end of sales of cars powered by fossil fuels?
Yes, but the point was that many on here derided Corbyn’s proposal as far-left lunacy whereas it has now become mainstream policy.
I think it already was. These targets have been around for a few years now. Both the UK and France announced bans from 2040 in 2017. The Chinese are doing it, too. The pace of battery tech development since has brought that deadline forward.
A word of caution for those of you thinking about summer holidays in Scotland. Just because Boris eases lockdown when it’s safe, doesn’t mean Nicola will. Especially if she wins an overall majority in May.
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
No. Watching the daily positive cases coming down is one of the only things that gives me optimism and hope.
Deaths and hospitalisations are what actually matter.
Well not quite. Until a vast majority of our population is vaccinated higher cases still leads to higher hospitalisations and higher deaths. They are all linked.
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
But the issue is that the scientists are moving the goalposts. Rishi was right, we were sold this lockdown as a way to protect the NHS from collapse. Now we're being told it's a way to get cases down. How long until that becomes getting cases to zero before we're allowed out of it?
No. The line must be kept at ensuring the NHS doesn't collapse, we're on the way to achieving that in a lasting way by ensuring all people at risk of ending up on hospital from this will be immunised by the end of April (in reality probably the end of March) and all adults by August (more likely June). The idea that once this is achieved we should stay in lockdown because cases are high is simply unacceptable and the scientists are moving the goalposts. We can't have rule by SAGE, no one voted for them.
We won't have rule by SAGE any more than we had rule by Cummings. The PM/ministers will listen to advisers, but they make the call and they are held to account for it.
The scientists (in the virology/public health/epidemiology areas) will advise on what's best for their area of expertise. The virologists and epidemiologists might well push for crushing cases to reduce chances of further damaging mutations (although, realistically, they are more likely to come from countries with few vaccinations and largely beyond our control other than border closing). The public health scientists should take a wider view on e.g. mental health, getting other health services back to full capacity. There should also be economists advising, who will likely push to open as much as possible as soon as possible.
Having said that, I agree that getting everyone* vaccinated (plus two-three weeks) should be a pretty clear end point. After that, things are as good as they're going to get, unless the NHS is on point of collapse there's no holding on a bit longer for things to get better, as they won't (they should be pretty good by then). The only justification for going longer would be a new vaccine-dodging strain that puts a lot of people in hospital or kills them (i.e. the already used vaccines don't prevent even severe illness) and a new vaccine for that very close. In that scenario, restrictions would still be to prevent NHS collapse, but we should not get into that situation.
* or indeed just the vulnerable for at least most restrictions
You're right but then we get SAGE briefing the media about how it's cases that matter, not the NHS. They are clearly trying to pressurise ministers into moving the measure from the NHS/deaths to cases. When we're doing 700k tests per day it's not going to be possible to get them down to under 1k, we're genuinely at false positives maybe adding up to more than that level.
The government needs to stand firm and I'm confident they will but SAGE are definitely making one last attempt to keep everyone locked in their homes for the longer term. They've become like the robots in I Am Legend, they know what's good for us and will try and impose it by any means necessary.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
I'm sorry to hear that mate and I agree with basically all of what you're saying.
This lockdown has been the worst and if it hadn't been for our house move I think it would have been a lot worse because I'd have had nothing outside of work to set my mind to. Now that it's done both my wife and I are definitely struggling. We're not people who can simply sit in front of the TV and stay there for hours on end and we have pretty active social lives in normal times.
I really miss just being able to message a mate and head to the pub or brewery bar on a Saturday afternoon. I miss being able to meet my wife at 11pm somewhere in the square mile on Thursday or Friday after work drinks and then head for a late dinner and stay out even later for drinks.
The idea that some NHS bod thinks that we need to keep social distancing indefinitely is completely depressing. I'm grateful that MPs like Steve Baker exist to ensure that boot of normal life is kept on the PM's neck and rule by scientist isn't really on the cards.
Its a bit rich that people whose argument you have spent the last year pouring scorn on are suddenly being relied on to get you out of a dreadful situation.
Email your own MP. Email your councillors.
Cut some mouthy anti-lockdown sceptic organisation a small cheque.
You will feel better. Trust me.
I haven't poured any scorn on people who say lockdown isn't a good long term solution. In fact I've been doing the opposite. Being against it as a long term solution doesn't mean it isn't effective at bringing cases down in the short term. In fact I've constantly been saying that without a longer term system in place lockdowns are basically not a really useful way of dealing with this and just pile misery onto people.
Ultimately, I take issue with people who say lockdown doesn't work, it obviously does one only needs to look at our current data to see that. In fact with vaccines we finally have a way out of this shit of lockdown, not lockdown then more lockdown. You can go back across all of my posts and I've been very consistent in this view, lockdown is a mechanism for reducing cases in the short term while other systems should be put in place (border controls, isolation, quarantine) to ensure cases don't explode again after unlocking. They aren't an end state as some people want them to be.
If anything I'd have more in common with Steve Baker than Matt Hancock with the added proviso that we need proper border controls and a fully open internal economy with no social distancing. I couldn't give a fuck if people can't travel in and out for the next 6-8 months.
And that is wholly legitimate.
But you see the issue. Your "I couldn't give a fuck if people can't travel in and out for the next 6-8 months" is someone else's "I couldn't give a fuck if bars and restaurants and clubs are closed for the next 6-8 months".
ie it is important that at every step of the way the government's actions are questioned. Not just when they either align with, or cross our own boundaries.
That is what eg @contrarian has done and I hope I have tried to explain my reasoning for my views. Which are yes of course lockdowns work (as we all have said - no clients, no problems). But they are a huge impingement on our freedoms, they should be questioned at every stage, and they have become, sadly, a policy tool which is now out of the box and, if you listen to Chris Hopson of the NHS on the matter, will not be put back for some time to come.
Intriguing uptick in new cases on Zoe app yesterday, and places like Lancaster recently and Hull showing the kind of gradual increase that preceded its explosion of new cases in November... this may not be over yet, let’s hope they’re just noise within the downward trend... on a brighter note, got the jab yesterday and no side effects so going off to climb Ingleborough peak to enjoy views of the Irish Sea and the Lakes...
Zoe says still dropping dramatically down here in Surrey (224 active, -132 on last week). Never sure how reliable Zoe is really - it feels like a gigantic non-random sample, like an opinion poll of Sun readers, but perhaps that's unfair.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
All PHEV/BEV by 2024 and 100% BEV by 2030.
Ford didn't sell a single electric car in Europe last year and no manufacturer wants to be the last IC hold out.
All well and good, but electric cars still aren't nearly good enough to be usable for some users; currently I don't think there isn't a model on the market with the range I need (if there is, it's going to be at the £50-75k pricepoint) - one of my regular tips I run through almost two tanks of fuel in a day in my ICE car, but as that's less than 5 minutes it's not a problem.
However that isn't the biggest problem. One aspect that I don't think has been considered nearly enough is how much the electric car "revolution" will shaft the poor buying second hand. Currently you can buy a usable low end car for £300, and it will be good for any range you care to drive it; the car before my current car was a rough old diesel Skoda - I paid £300, did 20k miles without even servicing it, then eBayed it for £320! I paid £2k for a fairly sensible 8 year old car four years ago, and have put 100k miles on it. I can't see it ever being possible to buy a 400 mile range electric car for £2k, never mind £300. Maybe a Nissan Zoe with the range degraded to 50 miles, but that's going to be pretty useless.
It seems chronically unfair that only those rich enough to buy high end cars will be able to afford cars that have a usable range - but no-one seems to have thought about this in the mad dash for electric cars.
I think a 2nd hand electric car market will develop. They're just too new and not widespread enough at the moment for it to be so.
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
And another six months to July.
For a six year old that is 25% of their lives.
A six year old has had 12 6 months periods in their life, one more makes 13 so 1/13th of their lifes or 7,7% roughly
Lockdown began last March and has never been fully lifted here at least.
March 2020 to July 2021 is a quarter of my eldests life. Longer for my youngest.
It will be about 40% of my eldests schooling years to date. 100% of my youngest to date.
I was replying to another 6 months to july thats 25% of a 6 year olds life though. That doesn't refer to when lockdown started
One thing I wonder about is whether children especially will be left with any mental scarring like OCD, agoraphobia or germophobia from this past year.
Don't know how others with children are finding it but my six year old now is almost religiously trying to follow the rules. Whenever she washes her hands she sings out loud Happy Birthday To Me twice as she washes her hands.
On the one hand it's good to be healthy, on the other hand I don't want it to become too much for her. Striking the right balance is tough.
As I said yesterday wrt this, my sister, who has children said she hopes they are young enough to let it all wash over them once over, but not too young for it to become formative.
Some sort of lockdown until July will mean that, for a six year old, 25% of their lives will have been lived with restrictions.
On balance, I think I've enjoyed the various lockdowns. I've certainly never got so much DIY done; I've repainted the entire house and put a new roof on the barn.
The only thing I've really missed are track days. Still booked for Spa for September which could be optimistic.
Haven't you been using the entire national motorway network as your track?
The proliferation of average speed cameras has ended Smokey Nagata style antics on M roads. Deserted local A roads now form the local "Durabergring". I've also got some Luxembourgois plates I bought off eBay for stealth mode.
In Brexit related news British track days are getting very expensive due to demand as it's now a colossal pain in the dick to take a non V5 vehicle (ie track day special) to Europe.
You got your name on the list for the new GT3?
No, the 992 GT3 RS strays a little bit too far from the 911 ethos for me. It's widebody only and has multilink front suspension instead of McP struts. It'll probably be a better car on the track (although the manual option is stunningly pointless and will have relatively poor resale value) but it's not for me.
I can get my 8,250rpm redline fix now I've got my 991.2 GT3 Cup running and have driven it on the road a few times for the lols. The Cosworth cloud telemetry appears to be fucked beyond repair though.
Ah yes, the guy with an actual racing car Porsche! Surprised you’re not in just for the overs though, good opportunity for making a wodge of cash if you can grease the right palms.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
All PHEV/BEV by 2024 and 100% BEV by 2030.
Ford didn't sell a single electric car in Europe last year and no manufacturer wants to be the last IC hold out.
All well and good, but electric cars still aren't nearly good enough to be usable for some users; currently I don't think there isn't a model on the market with the range I need (if there is, it's going to be at the £50-75k pricepoint) - one of my regular tips I run through almost two tanks of fuel in a day in my ICE car, but as that's less than 5 minutes it's not a problem.
However that isn't the biggest problem. One aspect that I don't think has been considered nearly enough is how much the electric car "revolution" will shaft the poor buying second hand. Currently you can buy a usable low end car for £300, and it will be good for any range you care to drive it; the car before my current car was a rough old diesel Skoda - I paid £300, did 20k miles without even servicing it, then eBayed it for £320! I paid £2k for a fairly sensible 8 year old car four years ago, and have put 100k miles on it. I can't see it ever being possible to buy a 400 mile range electric car for £2k, never mind £300. Maybe a Nissan Zoe with the range degraded to 50 miles, but that's going to be pretty useless.
It seems chronically unfair that only those rich enough to buy high end cars will be able to afford cars that have a usable range - but no-one seems to have thought about this in the mad dash for electric cars.
These are fair points in the short term.
A few things: 1. There will likely be a bonanza of cheap ICE second hand cars in 5-10 years from now (resale value will drop). Tax regime/fuel prices for them might not be all that nice of course! 2. Today's ICE cars will be in the bargain bin 10+ years from now, they're not disappearing overnight. The big volume of electric cars reaching the bargain bin will be 15+ years from now, cars that were new 5+ years from now, meaning- 3. Battery tech and costs will improve, so the second hand electric cars will both have better than terrible range (the battery tech in cars new 5+ years from now will be better) and a battery replacement will be more viable, cost-wise (15+ years from now) 4. Second hand electric cars have less other stuff about to break, so reduced costs there (less important for the £300 car of course, where you ditch it when something more than very minor breaks)
On range, you can add 100 miles to a Tesla Model 3 in 7 minutes with the right charger. That should be pretty standard (or better) in 5 years. So maybe you have to stop more often and take slightly longer, but we're not going to be talking interruptions of hours for charging on journeys.
"In the Commons there’s now even a growing group of Tory MPs who are pressing hard for change"
Numbers please? Because that is not what I am hearing.
There is one over-arching aim in Government - never again will there be Covid lockdowns. We will come out of lockdown when it is clear there will never be a need for more. Now, that might be quick, once the confirmation is in that a) the vaccines are as good as is hoped and b) the numbers for deliveries of those vaccines to give the jab to everyone are secured.
But if it needs an extra month to be completely sure, then the Government will take the extra pain to be able to say to the UK "Covid has been banished as an impediment to getting on with your life within this country* ". That is the political win within reach.
*Foreign travel for work or holibobs will be the very last thing to get the green light - and that could be quite some time. The UK has the genome testing capacity to know how safe it really is outside our borders. Again, the way the virus has retreated in just the past five weeks around the globe means the scope for mutations is already reducing markedly. If it continues - wonderful. But the win will not be lightly lost.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. We will be opening earlier than most - restaurants, pubs, museums, galleries, the stuff to make a memorable holiday here. An obvious choice to come here (if you can find the accommodation). I have it on very good authority that the Governor of the Bank of England is very chipper about our prospects for coming out of Covid in a most robust fashion. Things are looking up. Prepare for a much, much better year. But only when it is beaten to the point where it isn't wrecking our lives ever again.
Very good post @MarqueeMark but can you clarify a couple of things?
I understood that when we come out it will be back into the tier system - is that how you understand it?
Secondly, you appear to be suggesting that foreign travellers will be permitted to travel into the country but UK citizens will be barred from travelling out.
Yes, tiers when we reopen - but again, only reducing. So unlikely to be many seeing tier 1 or 2 immediately.
On foreign travel, the ban will stay as the last Covid measure to go. Even then, when lifted, the message will continue to be exercise caution: if you lose your money, there'll be no compensation from the Government. If we are first out of lockdowns, that still means you risk spending 14 days in quarantine when you arrive at a place that is still way behind us.
So this year, give Scotland a try instead. You'll love it.
Er...no, we don’t need to give Hyufd ideas about trying Scotland, thanks.
Are saying he won't tank me?
How does one get to Scotland anyway? I`m fucked if I`m driving ten hours there and ten hours back. Train and then car hire I guess?
Nine hours to Oban from Central London is/was a general rule of thumb. Otherwise take one of the most beautiful train journeys (certainly when you get north of Leeds) on the ECML KingsX to Edinburgh.
Edit: and sit on the right of the train as it goes through Berwick.
In what world does the ECML go through Leeds, that diverts at Doncaster and the mainline goes to York.
South of York it's a bit meh though and being frank I prefer heading North rather than South so north of Darlington would be my suggestion.
Always travel on the East side of the train as well you want to see the coast north of Newcastle.
ha was my point! Typed quickly. The ride through Berwick and that whole east coast is spectacular.
As I have long said India would be less affected than the West by Covid as it has an average life expectancy of only 69 compared to over 80 in most of the West and the death rate from Covid is highest amongst over 70s and especially over 80s
I don't think the age differences are sufficient to explain the disparity, though (and average age is a misleading number). Look at the approximate numbers for percentage of population over the age of 80: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.80UP.MA.5Y
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
And another six months to July.
For a six year old that is 25% of their lives.
A six year old has had 12 6 months periods in their life, one more makes 13 so 1/13th of their lifes or 7,7% roughly
Lockdown began last March and has never been fully lifted here at least.
March 2020 to July 2021 is a quarter of my eldests life. Longer for my youngest.
It will be about 40% of my eldests schooling years to date. 100% of my youngest to date.
I was replying to another 6 months to july thats 25% of a 6 year olds life though. That doesn't refer to when lockdown started
The six months isn't 25%, the total length of restrictions including those six months is.
I didn't make the remark but it was pretty obvious to me that's what was meant.
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
No. Watching the daily positive cases coming down is one of the only things that gives me optimism and hope.
Deaths and hospitalisations are what actually matter.
Well not quite. Until a vast majority of our population is vaccinated higher cases still leads to higher hospitalisations and higher deaths. They are all linked.
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
The idea that once this is achieved we should stay in lockdown because cases are high is simply unacceptable and the scientists are moving the goalposts. We can't have rule by SAGE, no one voted for them.
Bloody Hell Max I could go back to my March posts and find this word for word.
To describe the events of 1688 as an invasion is a bit of an over simplification. In particular the new queen, reigning jointly, just happened to be the daughter of the abdicating/fleeing king.
From many English perspectives it was the overthrowing of an attempted tyranny. Yes, opposition, religious and political, continued for a long time but was chiefly based on an idea which was already on the way out: the divine right of kings. This was always wobbly, and particularly so after Henry VII, whose claim to legitimacy as king was wafer thin/non existent.
By this time the idea of a Roman Catholic king was as alien to most as would have been the idea of the King of France being an anabaptist.
As a lease for a company car, the plug-in hybrids are already a total no-brainer because of the tax advantages. Even if you never plug them in!
That can't last much longer I would think because the Goldman Sachs Elf must be missing out on a lot of cash. Mrs DA pays 0% BiK tax on her Taycan which is utterly ridiculous. It's planned to go to 1% next year and 2% the year after but the electric revolution is happening very quickly now so I suspect they'll think again.
Oh, it’s totally nuts. If you work out lease, BIK and fuel as a self-employed 40% tax rate company car, a Taycan or a Panamera PHEV costs close to the same as a boggo 140g/km repmobile 3-series.
On topic, I guess this hinges on what your definition of "lockdown" means? Some seem to think it applies for as long as maskwearing, social distancing and a rule of 6 apply.
My definition is it ends when you're told you no longer must "stay at home", and can travel for social, domestic and leisure purposes as well as business ones.
Looking at the Mail definitions in the thread header that looks like either April or May to me, and not as late as July.
Yep.
The mystery of India is continuing to cause head scratching amongst scientists. One theory is that mask wearing is responsible.
There's obviously by now lots of evidence that a good mask prevents a lot of airborne virus transmission as well as the more obvious droplet one.
I mention this because the Gov't could sell this pretty strongly: put up with mask wearing for a while in indoor public venues as the price we pay for ending of almost all other restrictions.
If that was the offer almost everyone in the country would take it. Except Laurence Fox, obvs.
I thought that South Asians are supposed to be MORE susceptible to Covid - yet India is full of... South Asians!
Indeed, a mystery...
More a case of the fact that in the UK South Asians tend to live in urban areas and together as larger families I suspect
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
No. Watching the daily positive cases coming down is one of the only things that gives me optimism and hope.
Deaths and hospitalisations are what actually matter.
Well not quite. Until a vast majority of our population is vaccinated higher cases still leads to higher hospitalisations and higher deaths. They are all linked.
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
The idea that once this is achieved we should stay in lockdown because cases are high is simply unacceptable and the scientists are moving the goalposts. We can't have rule by SAGE, no one voted for them.
Bloody Hell Max I could go back to my March posts and find this word for word.
The first lockdown was during a beautiful spring. November’s was so short I barely remember it. But this one...Kent has effectively been locked down for two months now. In that time we have had the drama and stress of the Transition period ending, my Yank wife in bits over the Capitol Insurrection, dark dark nights and most recently snow. People I know generally are generally suffering clear signs of clinical depression and burnout. I had to take a parcel to the Post Office and went to the one at WH Smith’s in Ashford so I could browse the books and be around people. I am also pulling together pics of the wife and me over the years on holiday for the US Immigration attorney which wraps me in almost unbearable nostalgia. I suffered badly first time around and have found coping mechanisms but I note that others are suffering far worse.
Yet whenever I am asked I will say I support the lockdown. It makes sense. I don’t want to kill other people or myself. But if someone said to me in the village “come over for a cup of tea” I would be tempted. I smoked quite regularly at Uni but would always describe myself as a non-smoker. Compliance and stated support are different things. I strongly suspect that this one is going to fray at the edges sooner rather than later.
Two months is nothing. The North East and certain parts of the North West have effectively been locked down since September, with brief periods where we were allowed to go to non-essential shops on our own. That's six months and counting.
And another six months to July.
For a six year old that is 25% of their lives.
A six year old has had 12 6 months periods in their life, one more makes 13 so 1/13th of their lifes or 7,7% roughly
Eh? Have you noticed the past year? We've had restrictions since March 2020.
So a six-yr old in July will have had near on 18 months of restrictions.
"In the Commons there’s now even a growing group of Tory MPs who are pressing hard for change"
Numbers please? Because that is not what I am hearing.
There is one over-arching aim in Government - never again will there be Covid lockdowns. We will come out of lockdown when it is clear there will never be a need for more. Now, that might be quick, once the confirmation is in that a) the vaccines are as good as is hoped and b) the numbers for deliveries of those vaccines to give the jab to everyone are secured.
But if it needs an extra month to be completely sure, then the Government will take the extra pain to be able to say to the UK "Covid has been banished as an impediment to getting on with your life within this country* ". That is the political win within reach.
*Foreign travel for work or holibobs will be the very last thing to get the green light - and that could be quite some time. The UK has the genome testing capacity to know how safe it really is outside our borders. Again, the way the virus has retreated in just the past five weeks around the globe means the scope for mutations is already reducing markedly. If it continues - wonderful. But the win will not be lightly lost.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. We will be opening earlier than most - restaurants, pubs, museums, galleries, the stuff to make a memorable holiday here. An obvious choice to come here (if you can find the accommodation). I have it on very good authority that the Governor of the Bank of England is very chipper about our prospects for coming out of Covid in a most robust fashion. Things are looking up. Prepare for a much, much better year. But only when it is beaten to the point where it isn't wrecking our lives ever again.
Very good post @MarqueeMark but can you clarify a couple of things?
I understood that when we come out it will be back into the tier system - is that how you understand it?
Secondly, you appear to be suggesting that foreign travellers will be permitted to travel into the country but UK citizens will be barred from travelling out.
Yes, tiers when we reopen - but again, only reducing. So unlikely to be many seeing tier 1 or 2 immediately.
On foreign travel, the ban will stay as the last Covid measure to go. Even then, when lifted, the message will continue to be exercise caution: if you lose your money, there'll be no compensation from the Government. If we are first out of lockdowns, that still means you risk spending 14 days in quarantine when you arrive at a place that is still way behind us.
So this year, give Scotland a try instead. You'll love it.
Er...no, we don’t need to give Hyufd ideas about trying Scotland, thanks.
Are saying he won't tank me?
How does one get to Scotland anyway? I`m fucked if I`m driving ten hours there and ten hours back. Train and then car hire I guess?
Nine hours to Oban from Central London is/was a general rule of thumb. Otherwise take one of the most beautiful train journeys (certainly when you get north of Leeds) on the ECML KingsX to Edinburgh.
Edit: and sit on the right of the train as it goes through Berwick.
In what world does the ECML go through Leeds, that diverts at Doncaster and the mainline goes to York.
South of York it's a bit meh though and being frank I prefer heading North rather than South so north of Darlington would be my suggestion.
Always travel on the East side of the train as well you want to see the coast north of Newcastle.
ha was my point! Typed quickly. The ride through Berwick and that whole east coast is spectacular.
But look left (west) not right through Durham otherwise you will just get a good view of the cafeteria.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
All PHEV/BEV by 2024 and 100% BEV by 2030.
Ford didn't sell a single electric car in Europe last year and no manufacturer wants to be the last IC hold out.
All well and good, but electric cars still aren't nearly good enough to be usable for some users; currently I don't think there isn't a model on the market with the range I need (if there is, it's going to be at the £50-75k pricepoint) - one of my regular tips I run through almost two tanks of fuel in a day in my ICE car, but as that's less than 5 minutes it's not a problem.
However that isn't the biggest problem. One aspect that I don't think has been considered nearly enough is how much the electric car "revolution" will shaft the poor buying second hand. Currently you can buy a usable low end car for £300, and it will be good for any range you care to drive it; the car before my current car was a rough old diesel Skoda - I paid £300, did 20k miles without even servicing it, then eBayed it for £320! I paid £2k for a fairly sensible 8 year old car four years ago, and have put 100k miles on it. I can't see it ever being possible to buy a 400 mile range electric car for £2k, never mind £300. Maybe a Nissan Zoe with the range degraded to 50 miles, but that's going to be pretty useless.
It seems chronically unfair that only those rich enough to buy high end cars will be able to afford cars that have a usable range - but no-one seems to have thought about this in the mad dash for electric cars.
I think a 2nd hand electric car market will develop. They're just too new and not widespread enough at the moment for it to be so.
Undoubtedly - but the combination of range being the most expensive bit, and it naturally degrading means that the cheapest second hand cars will have very poor ranges. Currently the cheapest second hand cars are just scruffy, old and generally smaller, none of which matters much to a not very car proud end user. A lack of range is a different sort of problem entirely, and the net result will be that poorer people won't be able to do long journeys without frequent stops to recharge. This seems a fundamentally unfair state of affairs compared to now.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
I'm sorry to hear that mate and I agree with basically all of what you're saying.
This lockdown has been the worst and if it hadn't been for our house move I think it would have been a lot worse because I'd have had nothing outside of work to set my mind to. Now that it's done both my wife and I are definitely struggling. We're not people who can simply sit in front of the TV and stay there for hours on end and we have pretty active social lives in normal times.
I really miss just being able to message a mate and head to the pub or brewery bar on a Saturday afternoon. I miss being able to meet my wife at 11pm somewhere in the square mile on Thursday or Friday after work drinks and then head for a late dinner and stay out even later for drinks.
The idea that some NHS bod thinks that we need to keep social distancing indefinitely is completely depressing. I'm grateful that MPs like Steve Baker exist to ensure that boot of normal life is kept on the PM's neck and rule by scientist isn't really on the cards.
Its a bit rich that people whose argument you have spent the last year pouring scorn on are suddenly being relied on to get you out of a dreadful situation.
Email your own MP. Email your councillors.
Cut some mouthy anti-lockdown sceptic organisation a small cheque.
You will feel better. Trust me.
I haven't poured any scorn on people who say lockdown isn't a good long term solution. In fact I've been doing the opposite. Being against it as a long term solution doesn't mean it isn't effective at bringing cases down in the short term. In fact I've constantly been saying that without a longer term system in place lockdowns are basically not a really useful way of dealing with this and just pile misery onto people.
Ultimately, I take issue with people who say lockdown doesn't work, it obviously does one only needs to look at our current data to see that. In fact with vaccines we finally have a way out of this shit of lockdown, not lockdown then more lockdown. You can go back across all of my posts and I've been very consistent in this view, lockdown is a mechanism for reducing cases in the short term while other systems should be put in place (border controls, isolation, quarantine) to ensure cases don't explode again after unlocking. They aren't an end state as some people want them to be.
If anything I'd have more in common with Steve Baker than Matt Hancock with the added proviso that we need proper border controls and a fully open internal economy with no social distancing. I couldn't give a fuck if people can't travel in and out for the next 6-8 months.
And that is wholly legitimate.
But you see the issue. Your "I couldn't give a fuck if people can't travel in and out for the next 6-8 months" is someone else's "I couldn't give a fuck if bars and restaurants and clubs are closed for the next 6-8 months".
ie it is important that at every step of the way the government's actions are questioned. Not just when they either align with, or cross our own boundaries.
That is what eg @contrarian has done and I hope I have tried to explain my reasoning for my views. Which are yes of course lockdowns work (as we all have said - no clients, no problems). But they are a huge impingement on our freedoms, they should be questioned at every stage, and they have become, sadly, a policy tool which is now out of the box and, if you listen to Chris Hopson of the NHS on the matter, will not be put back for some time to come.
Potentially if we control the borders then everything else can get to normal.
Control pubs and it can't necessarily.
That's a critical difference. Plus the argument to not control the borders (besides jobs which apply to every sector) is typically "I need a break". That's true, everyone does. There's plenty of locales domestically to take a break in during a global pandemic.
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
No. Watching the daily positive cases coming down is one of the only things that gives me optimism and hope.
Deaths and hospitalisations are what actually matter.
Well not quite. Until a vast majority of our population is vaccinated higher cases still leads to higher hospitalisations and higher deaths. They are all linked.
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
But the issue is that the scientists are moving the goalposts. Rishi was right, we were sold this lockdown as a way to protect the NHS from collapse. Now we're being told it's a way to get cases down. How long until that becomes getting cases to zero before we're allowed out of it?
No. The line must be kept at ensuring the NHS doesn't collapse, we're on the way to achieving that in a lasting way by ensuring all people at risk of ending up on hospital from this will be immunised by the end of April (in reality probably the end of March) and all adults by August (more likely June). The idea that once this is achieved we should stay in lockdown because cases are high is simply unacceptable and the scientists are moving the goalposts. We can't have rule by SAGE, no one voted for them.
We won't have rule by SAGE any more than we had rule by Cummings. The PM/ministers will listen to advisers, but they make the call and they are held to account for it.
The scientists (in the virology/public health/epidemiology areas) will advise on what's best for their area of expertise. The virologists and epidemiologists might well push for crushing cases to reduce chances of further damaging mutations (although, realistically, they are more likely to come from countries with few vaccinations and largely beyond our control other than border closing). The public health scientists should take a wider view on e.g. mental health, getting other health services back to full capacity. There should also be economists advising, who will likely push to open as much as possible as soon as possible.
Having said that, I agree that getting everyone* vaccinated (plus two-three weeks) should be a pretty clear end point. After that, things are as good as they're going to get, unless the NHS is on point of collapse there's no holding on a bit longer for things to get better, as they won't (they should be pretty good by then). The only justification for going longer would be a new vaccine-dodging strain that puts a lot of people in hospital or kills them (i.e. the already used vaccines don't prevent even severe illness) and a new vaccine for that very close. In that scenario, restrictions would still be to prevent NHS collapse, but we should not get into that situation.
* or indeed just the vulnerable for at least most restrictions
As we are constantly being told, the public is hugely in favour of continued lockdown. So why on earth wouldn't Boris continue to say "we are following the science" and maintain the lockdown until we have a "robust and effective strategy to identify new variants"?
= continued popularity = continued governing = trebles all round.
Intriguing uptick in new cases on Zoe app yesterday, and places like Lancaster recently and Hull showing the kind of gradual increase that preceded its explosion of new cases in November... this may not be over yet, let’s hope they’re just noise within the downward trend... on a brighter note, got the jab yesterday and no side effects so going off to climb Ingleborough peak to enjoy views of the Irish Sea and the Lakes...
Zoe says still dropping dramatically down here in Surrey (224 active, -132 on last week). Never sure how reliable Zoe is really - it feels like a gigantic non-random sample, like an opinion poll of Sun readers, but perhaps that's unfair.
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
100% zero-emissions capable, all-electric or plug-in hybrid, by 2024.
Interesting. I'm going to probably need to get a new car once/if I rejoin the land of employment in the summer. I'm starting to wonder whether I should invest (using this term very loosely) in an electric car. I have an electric charging port that came with the house that has never been used...
If your not "into" cars (ie you don't own a bore scope and a corner balancing rig) then have a look at the Hyundai Ioniq. Hyundai have the best build quality in the industry.
My missus has a Mitsubishi ASX, with a vario box. Just crap to drive, but it’s done 140,000 miles in seven years with no more than oil changes, tyres and batteries. Still on original pads!
I’m in the process of buying a W211 E500 wagon. £5k over here
I see Ford has announced it is transitioning to all electric vehicles by 2030. Funny to remember how many on here reacted with such fury when Corbyn proposed banning ICEs by 2030 a few years ago.
Is it all electric or is it all at least hybrid electric in combination with ICEs?
100% zero-emissions capable, all-electric or plug-in hybrid, by 2024.
Interesting. I'm going to probably need to get a new car once/if I rejoin the land of employment in the summer. I'm starting to wonder whether I should invest (using this term very loosely) in an electric car. I have an electric charging port that came with the house that has never been used...
If your not "into" cars (ie you don't own a bore scope and a corner balancing rig) then have a look at the Hyundai Ioniq. Hyundai have the best build quality in the industry.
There are people who don't have corner balancing rigs?
Ah yes, the guy with an actual racing car Porsche! Surprised you’re not in just for the overs though, good opportunity for making a wodge of cash if you can grease the right palms.
Despite my snobbery over the multi-link front suspension (which I suspect they have done just to chase the AMG GT Black Series 'ring time) I would never be able to part with it if I bought one.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
I feel very similar. I was actually glad to have a major operational snafu to deal with late yesterday, because it was something immediate that I could focus on.
But I can't bend the rules. I am too worried about bringing the virus home, or of passing it on to someone vulnerable elsewhere.
I am waiting for the vaccination. I am hoping the evidence will show they inhibit transmission.
Many sympathies, both. I have a family member who has suffered really severe depression (couldn't even speak coherently at one point) but did fully recover. I agree with MaxPB's suggestions - I think the crucial point is to accept that it's not your fault or anyone else's, it's a thing like a broken leg, it happens, it's horrible, and it *goes away*. Telling people about it frankly is good - they'll uinderstand.
I reckon that improving weather, spreading vaccinations and declining infection rates will help everyone's spirit, and being able to see family can't be long off now.
As a lease for a company car, the plug-in hybrids are already a total no-brainer because of the tax advantages. Even if you never plug them in!
That can't last much longer I would think because the Goldman Sachs Elf must be missing out on a lot of cash. Mrs DA pays 0% BiK tax on her Taycan which is utterly ridiculous. It's planned to go to 1% next year and 2% the year after but the electric revolution is happening very quickly now so I suspect they'll think again.
Oh, it’s totally nuts. If you work out lease, BIK and fuel as a self-employed 40% tax rate company car, a Taycan or a Panamera PHEV costs close to the same as a boggo 140g/km repmobile 3-series.
A relative bought a Tesla X through his company. Yup, paying essentially "repmobile" monthly on it.
A word of caution for those of you thinking about summer holidays in Scotland. Just because Boris eases lockdown when it’s safe, doesn’t mean Nicola will. Especially if she wins an overall majority in May.
As long as you all avoid the Portsoy Boat festival in June. It gets too crowded as it is!
Wasn't very free if you weren't an Anglican, though. Even though a Protestant. And even worse if you were a Catholic. As JRM should know. He'd have been in the pokey for attending a Latin Mass!
Comments
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
Email your MP. Find out who your councillors are and email them too.
This lockdown though (and even the autumn term with restrictions but no lockdown) my four year old has found much harder than the six year old. She's started school and made friends but can't do anything everyone normally takes for granted. She wants to invite her friend to her house to play, or go play at her friends. She wants to go to birthday parties. She's always had these things to look forward to when she's older and now she's the right age she's denied it and really struggling with that.
Coming towards the end of her first school year and she has NEVER in her life been able to play outside of school with a school friend.
People only care, as we are seeing on here now, when govt actions crosses their own red line regarding lockdowns. They dismiss all, er, contrarian voices until that moment. Then they realise that those voices were a vital part of the overall message to government that they should not be taking this action with out scrutiny at every stage. Not just now that people have decided we might be in the endgame.
Nobody WANTS lockdown. The government doesn't WANT lockdown either.
Where our view and yours differ is whether its deemed necessary. And it clearly is necessary.
The government is doing well the one thing that can end this nightmare: vaccinations.
Ultimately, I take issue with people who say lockdown doesn't work, it obviously does one only needs to look at our current data to see that. In fact with vaccines we finally have a way out of this shit of lockdown, not lockdown then more lockdown. You can go back across all of my posts and I've been very consistent in this view, lockdown is a mechanism for reducing cases in the short term while other systems should be put in place (border controls, isolation, quarantine) to ensure cases don't explode again after unlocking. They aren't an end state as some people want them to be.
If anything I'd have more in common with Steve Baker than Matt Hancock with the added proviso that we need proper border controls and a fully open internal economy with no social distancing. I couldn't give a fuck if people can't travel in and out for the next 6-8 months.
all-electric by 2030...
https://news.sky.com/story/ford-joins-motor-industry-race-to-all-electric-future-12220588
Ford didn't sell a single electric car in Europe last year and no manufacturer wants to be the last IC hold out.
Don't know how others with children are finding it but my six year old now is almost religiously trying to follow the rules. Whenever she washes her hands she sings out loud Happy Birthday To Me twice as she washes her hands.
On the one hand it's good to be healthy, on the other hand I don't want it to become too much for her. Striking the right balance is tough.
Or to put it another way - if right now you offer me normality resuming (and for good) in July of this year, and you guarantee that, I am biting your hand off.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1361982389761810434
It's definitely in the list of "good problems to have" in a vaccination rollout - there ought to be a team of boffins hopefully solving what is essentially an optimisation problem though here.
South of York it's a bit meh though and being frank I prefer heading North rather than South so north of Darlington would be my suggestion.
Always travel on the East side of the train as well you want to see the coast north of Newcastle.
Indeed, a mystery...
No. The line must be kept at ensuring the NHS doesn't collapse, we're on the way to achieving that in a lasting way by ensuring all people at risk of ending up on hospital from this will be immunised by the end of April (in reality probably the end of March) and all adults by August (more likely June). The idea that once this is achieved we should stay in lockdown because cases are high is simply unacceptable and the scientists are moving the goalposts. We can't have rule by SAGE, no one voted for them.
That's my biggest limiter at the minute. I've still got the same car I bought in 2010 and I'm keeping it until electric cars are affordable without at home ports, or the car breaks down beyond economic repair.
I see no point in ever buying a new ICE vehicle again.
As someone living in a massive global crossroads, I’m resigned to quarantine next time I visit my parents. But I won’t have seen them in two years, so it’s definitely going to be worth it.
But we don't know when that'll be yet. And we also need to build in a certain number of weeks to allow for immunity to be built, otherwise people who have been vaccinated are still going to end up in hospital.
I think people are irrationally afraid of SAGE. Boris is chomping at the bit to unlock the country and won't let SAGE get in the way of that.
At some point we have to start takng risks again, if we're going to live in any kind of decent (or even non-bankrupt) society. We don't stop people driving just because a few thousand people each year are killed on the roads.
People have long advocated electric as the future, the only question was at what timescale the technology would be there. The technology has come along in leaps and bounds now.
I can get my 8,250rpm redline fix now I've got my 991.2 GT3 Cup running and have driven it on the road a few times for the lols. The Cosworth cloud telemetry appears to be fucked beyond repair though.
March 2020 to July 2021 is a quarter of my eldests life. Longer for my youngest.
It will be about 40% of my eldests schooling years to date. 100% of my youngest to date.
My tips below are what helps me, but they're mostly ones that others recommend too.
- cut down on caffeine. I only have two proper coffees or teas a day. Decaff is a godsend
- cut down on booze - or cut down the days, at least
- do more exercise - even when you feel like you cant
- all the above being said, make sure to treat yourself well, and regularly. Whether its a nice relaxing bath, or an episode of your favourite TV show. Somewhat hilariously my current weekly treat is a tuna melt panini from Caffe Nero, something to look forward to on a Saturday
- speak to family and friends about it - you'll largely already know who will be helpful (and kudos for telling us, it really helps to get things off your chest)
- don't beat yourself up - there are exemptions to the rules for mental health reasons. Use them
- don't use your phone too much. Especially in bed, or over meals etc.
Stay strong, and be reassured that good people are trying their damnedest to make life easier for everyone. Thank god for the backbenchers.
As a lease for a company car, the plug-in hybrids are already a total no-brainer because of the tax advantages. Even if you never plug them in!
Take your pick.
The scientists (in the virology/public health/epidemiology areas) will advise on what's best for their area of expertise. The virologists and epidemiologists might well push for crushing cases to reduce chances of further damaging mutations (although, realistically, they are more likely to come from countries with few vaccinations and largely beyond our control other than border closing). The public health scientists should take a wider view on e.g. mental health, getting other health services back to full capacity. There should also be economists advising, who will likely push to open as much as possible as soon as possible.
Having said that, I agree that getting everyone* vaccinated (plus two-three weeks) should be a pretty clear end point. After that, things are as good as they're going to get, unless the NHS is on point of collapse there's no holding on a bit longer for things to get better, as they won't (they should be pretty good by then). The only justification for going longer would be a new vaccine-dodging strain that puts a lot of people in hospital or kills them (i.e. the already used vaccines don't prevent even severe illness) and a new vaccine for that very close. In that scenario, restrictions would still be to prevent NHS collapse, but we should not get into that situation.
* or indeed just the vulnerable for at least most restrictions
I ended up with a brand new A1 Sportline automatic once via a booking cock-up at the car hire place. Tiny boot but absolutely brilliant to drive. I ragged it around a very rainy Kent one summer week and loved every minute.
These days, I own a Q7, which is much more practical but not quite as fun!
However that isn't the biggest problem. One aspect that I don't think has been considered nearly enough is how much the electric car "revolution" will shaft the poor buying second hand. Currently you can buy a usable low end car for £300, and it will be good for any range you care to drive it; the car before my current car was a rough old diesel Skoda - I paid £300, did 20k miles without even servicing it, then eBayed it for £320!
I paid £2k for a fairly sensible 8 year old car four years ago, and have put 100k miles on it. I can't see it ever being possible to buy a 400 mile range electric car for £2k, never mind £300. Maybe a Nissan Zoe with the range degraded to 50 miles, but that's going to be pretty useless.
It seems chronically unfair that only those rich enough to buy high end cars will be able to afford cars that have a usable range - but no-one seems to have thought about this in the mad dash for electric cars.
https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1361982815164841985?s=21
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.80UP.MA.5Y
And the graph I posted isn't corrected for population size.
Look at this version:
https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1361847144378941442
The government needs to stand firm and I'm confident they will but SAGE are definitely making one last attempt to keep everyone locked in their homes for the longer term. They've become like the robots in I Am Legend, they know what's good for us and will try and impose it by any means necessary.
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1361978704251944962
Minimal Covid then getting back to normal vaccinated makes sense. By time vaccines are done it should be minimal enough already.
That's surely three weeks after 30/4.
But you see the issue. Your "I couldn't give a fuck if people can't travel in and out for the next 6-8 months" is someone else's "I couldn't give a fuck if bars and restaurants and clubs are closed for the next 6-8 months".
ie it is important that at every step of the way the government's actions are questioned. Not just when they either align with, or cross our own boundaries.
That is what eg @contrarian has done and I hope I have tried to explain my reasoning for my views. Which are yes of course lockdowns work (as we all have said - no clients, no problems). But they are a huge impingement on our freedoms, they should be questioned at every stage, and they have become, sadly, a policy tool which is now out of the box and, if you listen to Chris Hopson of the NHS on the matter, will not be put back for some time to come.
Some sort of lockdown until July will mean that, for a six year old, 25% of their lives will have been lived with restrictions.
A few things:
1. There will likely be a bonanza of cheap ICE second hand cars in 5-10 years from now (resale value will drop). Tax regime/fuel prices for them might not be all that nice of course!
2. Today's ICE cars will be in the bargain bin 10+ years from now, they're not disappearing overnight. The big volume of electric cars reaching the bargain bin will be 15+ years from now, cars that were new 5+ years from now, meaning-
3. Battery tech and costs will improve, so the second hand electric cars will both have better than terrible range (the battery tech in cars new 5+ years from now will be better) and a battery replacement will be more viable, cost-wise (15+ years from now)
4. Second hand electric cars have less other stuff about to break, so reduced costs there (less important for the £300 car of course, where you ditch it when something more than very minor breaks)
On range, you can add 100 miles to a Tesla Model 3 in 7 minutes with the right charger. That should be pretty standard (or better) in 5 years. So maybe you have to stop more often and take slightly longer, but we're not going to be talking interruptions of hours for charging on journeys.
I didn't make the remark but it was pretty obvious to me that's what was meant.
From many English perspectives it was the overthrowing of an attempted tyranny. Yes, opposition, religious and political, continued for a long time but was chiefly based on an idea which was already on the way out: the divine right of kings. This was always wobbly, and particularly so after Henry VII, whose claim to legitimacy as king was wafer thin/non existent.
By this time the idea of a Roman Catholic king was as alien to most as would have been the idea of the King of France being an anabaptist.
So a six-yr old in July will have had near on 18 months of restrictions.
= 25% of their lives.
Control pubs and it can't necessarily.
That's a critical difference. Plus the argument to not control the borders (besides jobs which apply to every sector) is typically "I need a break". That's true, everyone does. There's plenty of locales domestically to take a break in during a global pandemic.
= continued popularity = continued governing = trebles all round.
I’m in the process of buying a W211 E500 wagon. £5k over here
I reckon that improving weather, spreading vaccinations and declining infection rates will help everyone's spirit, and being able to see family can't be long off now.
As JRM should know. He'd have been in the pokey for attending a Latin Mass!