An NHS boss today calling for continued restrictions until NHS capacity is under control.
According to NHS bosses has NHS capacity been under control at any time in the past 40 years?
@MarqueeMark good post but do you see now how easy it would be for the government to "follow the science" and keep us locked down until further notice (I exaggerate, but only slightly).
Every winter bed occupancy in the NHS is normally above 100%.
At the hospital where my wife works the situation is returning to what it was like last summer. Shifts are being cancelled, wards are empty and bank (overtime) work is being stopped.
In Leicester we still have over 300 covid inpatients, 50+ on ICU which is running at 150% capacity. This is more than the first wave peak. We have Consultants working as ICU nurses because it is so stretched. I think this will be the case for another month. It is a slow recovery even for those who make it.
I do think some relaxations are needed, despite all this though.
Let’s hope though that Mrs Hughes’ experience is a harbinger of things to come. You guys thoroughly deserve and clearly very much need some rest.
Yeah, it is getting to me now, and Mrs Foxy too.
A thought about the queues.
So, it appears that the COVID work is reducing in hospitals. Good.
But normal working is delayed. worries about COVID transmission to patients?
What about vaccinating those in the back log of patients, and doing a push (and I mean more of shove) among NHS staff? Make hospitals COVID... safer?
"In the Commons there’s now even a growing group of Tory MPs who are pressing hard for change"
Numbers please? Because that is not what I am hearing.
There is one over-arching aim in Government - never again will there be Covid lockdowns. We will come out of lockdown when it is clear there will never be a need for more. Now, that might be quick, once the confirmation is in that a) the vaccines are as good as is hoped and b) the numbers for deliveries of those vaccines to give the jab to everyone are secured.
But if it needs an extra month to be completely sure, then the Government will take the extra pain to be able to say to the UK "Covid has been banished as an impediment to getting on with your life within this country* ". That is the political win within reach.
*Foreign travel for work or holibobs will be the very last thing to get the green light - and that could be quite some time. The UK has the genome testing capacity to know how safe it really is outside our borders. Again, the way the virus has retreated in just the past five weeks around the globe means the scope for mutations is already reducing markedly. If it continues - wonderful. But the win will not be lightly lost.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. We will be opening earlier than most - restaurants, pubs, museums, galleries, the stuff to make a memorable holiday here. An obvious choice to come here (if you can find the accommodation). I have it on very good authority that the Governor of the Bank of England is very chipper about our prospects for coming out of Covid in a most robust fashion. Things are looking up. Prepare for a much, much better year. But only when it is beaten to the point where it isn't wrecking our lives ever again.
Very good post @MarqueeMark but can you clarify a couple of things?
I understood that when we come out it will be back into the tier system - is that how you understand it?
Secondly, you appear to be suggesting that foreign travelers will be permitted to travel into the country but UK citizens will be barred from travelling out.
An NHS boss today calling for continued restrictions until NHS capacity is under control.
According to NHS bosses has NHS capacity been under control at any time in the past 40 years?
@MarqueeMark good post but do you see now how easy it would be for the government to "follow the science" and keep us locked down until further notice (I exaggerate, but only slightly).
Every winter bed occupancy in the NHS is normally above 100%.
At the hospital where my wife works the situation is returning to what it was like last summer. Shifts are being cancelled, wards are empty and bank (overtime) work is being stopped.
In Leicester we still have over 300 covid inpatients, 50+ on ICU which is running at 150% capacity. This is more than the first wave peak. We have Consultants working as ICU nurses because it is so stretched. I think this will be the case for another month. It is a slow recovery even for those who make it.
I do think some relaxations are needed, despite all this though.
Let’s hope though that Mrs Hughes’ experience is a harbinger of things to come. You guys thoroughly deserve and clearly very much need some rest.
Yeah, it is getting to me now, and Mrs Foxy too.
Stay strong, Doctor. It’s the endgame now. We’ll get there and then hopefully we will meet for PB gathering at which everyone will owe you a beer.
(Although that might cause you permanent liver damage, which would be counterproductive.)
An NHS boss today calling for continued restrictions until NHS capacity is under control.
According to NHS bosses has NHS capacity been under control at any time in the past 40 years?
@MarqueeMark good post but do you see now how easy it would be for the government to "follow the science" and keep us locked down until further notice (I exaggerate, but only slightly).
Every winter bed occupancy in the NHS is normally above 100%.
At the hospital where my wife works the situation is returning to what it was like last summer. Shifts are being cancelled, wards are empty and bank (overtime) work is being stopped.
In Leicester we still have over 300 covid inpatients, 50+ on ICU which is running at 150% capacity. This is more than the first wave peak. We have Consultants working as ICU nurses because it is so stretched. I think this will be the case for another month. It is a slow recovery even for those who make it.
I do think some relaxations are needed, despite all this though.
Yes but are those Covid patients crowding out other patients as we are being told?
Of course. If the anaesthetists and theatre staff are working in surge ICU, they are not doing operating lists. Similarly if the orthopedic ward is full of respiratory covid then there is no space to do hips etc.
With the vaccine rollout the situation has now radically changed, yet the goalposts are now being shifted compared to the assurances that were given when MPs voted for lockdown. The idea that this is all down to the need to protect against new variants makes no sense unless the UK is to maintain a NZ style prohibition on travel to and from abroad until Covid has been eliminated worldwide, which means forever and a day.
In my personal circumstances, what I find particularly onerous is the continued complete prohibition on any form of socially distanced outdoor sport in England. Golf and outdoor tennis are safer than forms of exercise currently allowed, since unlike jogging you don't repeatedly come into close proximity with anyone. Golf has continued in Scotland throughout lockdown, yet is clearly going to be banned here until some weeks after schools go back. Utterly ridiculous. The failure to make any early, small, risk-free changes means that the misery of Covid restrictions is far more intense than it need be. It should not be just about getting schools back before anything else changes.
If Johnson misjudges the situation, as looks very likely, I hope he pays the political price.
Golf is just walking in a place where there are far far fewer people, crazy it is banned.
Except at Cannock Park, where the public have the right to roam about more or less freely.
I have no idea how crowded it is, but am pretty sure that if there are as many people walking on the course as there are on city roads no-one would be playing golf there.
Depends *which* road. It is obviously not as crowded as the A34. But you do get more people walking/exercising their dogs than you would on the suburban residential streets around it, e.g. Cemetery Road, Westbourne Avenue. It’s bang next to Cannock Chase and Shoal Hill Common and people just wander off them on their way into the town.
Well for those of us who live in urban areas there is no golf course that could be played and have even 10% of the people who are wandering the streets we are allowed to walk in. It is safer for golf courses to be open than to push even more of us onto the same over crowded streets.
Cannock is an urban area. It’s just an urban area with a very weird shape due to a large chunk of common land being bang next to the town centre.
Crap communications and a general dislike of government means that there are a lot of places where not enough people are going to be vaccinated for Covid to disappear.
I wonder if people in Europe will look across to places like the UK, opening up in the summer when they are still under restrictions, and collectively thinking that maybe getting the vaccine might be a good idea after all?
AIUI a lot of the people not wanting the vaccine are people not wanting the vaccine "yet", so are quite clear that they prefer a wait and see approach. So undoubtedly they will do, but that seems to be their preferred approach rather than something they work out with hindsight.
I'd expect all of Europe to be pretty open by the summer, it was last summer after all and cases were generally <20 per 100k. Even if their vaccination programme is 3 months behind, as long as they have it done before October/November the differences won't be as big as people on here expect, unless covid is somehow less seasonal this year.
Apparently lot of the power infrastructure in Texas hasn't got cold weather protection.
I saw a claim that a company, when installing wind turbines, had offered the heating kit to protect against freezing ($5K per turbine), but it hadn't been taken up.
An NHS boss today calling for continued restrictions until NHS capacity is under control.
According to NHS bosses has NHS capacity been under control at any time in the past 40 years?
@MarqueeMark good post but do you see now how easy it would be for the government to "follow the science" and keep us locked down until further notice (I exaggerate, but only slightly).
Every winter bed occupancy in the NHS is normally above 100%.
At the hospital where my wife works the situation is returning to what it was like last summer. Shifts are being cancelled, wards are empty and bank (overtime) work is being stopped.
In Leicester we still have over 300 covid inpatients, 50+ on ICU which is running at 150% capacity. This is more than the first wave peak. We have Consultants working as ICU nurses because it is so stretched. I think this will be the case for another month. It is a slow recovery even for those who make it.
I do think some relaxations are needed, despite all this though.
Let’s hope though that Mrs Hughes’ experience is a harbinger of things to come. You guys thoroughly deserve and clearly very much need some rest.
Yeah, it is getting to me now, and Mrs Foxy too.
A thought about the queues.
So, it appears that the COVID work is reducing in hospitals. Good.
But normal working is delayed. worries about COVID transmission to patients?
What about vaccinating those in the back log of patients, and doing a push (and I mean more of shove) among NHS staff? Make hospitals COVID... safer?
Until extra cleaning and social distancing can be abandoned in waiting areas, normal service cannot be resumed. We have 6 months of cancelled outpatients to rebook. That will take years to resolve.
It's fascinating isn't it? Most of the Indian population is still rural poor and the healthcare infrastructure basic, and yet they've not had this tsunami of death. Under-reporting might be at work, and the life expectancy difference probably also has something to do with it - but then again, India's life expectancy is only about nine years below that of the US. There must be important additional factors in play there.
Vitamin D? India's low average age? A slightly less fatal strain of CV19 that went around India?
More bugs around generally that keep their immune systems on their toes? In contrast we now generally live in such sanitised conditions that our immune systems are flabby and useless, being entirely out of practice at how to cope with a mean old bug...
Viruses do best in cold dry conditions. India is hot, and much of it is humid.
Whereas Brazil is...?
There’s more going on than climate, though climate is probably important.
Climate is clearly more subtle than a simple on/off switch - there's big differences in how the virus behaves in different parts of the world.
But its OK, Imperial have predicted a summer surge greater than the 1st peak.
With the vaccine rollout the situation has now radically changed, yet the goalposts are now being shifted compared to the assurances that were given when MPs voted for lockdown. The idea that this is all down to the need to protect against new variants makes no sense unless the UK is to maintain a NZ style prohibition on travel to and from abroad until Covid has been eliminated worldwide, which means forever and a day.
In my personal circumstances, what I find particularly onerous is the continued complete prohibition on any form of socially distanced outdoor sport in England. Golf and outdoor tennis are safer than forms of exercise currently allowed, since unlike jogging you don't repeatedly come into close proximity with anyone. Golf has continued in Scotland throughout lockdown, yet is clearly going to be banned here until some weeks after schools go back. Utterly ridiculous. The failure to make any early, small, risk-free changes means that the misery of Covid restrictions is far more intense than it need be. It should not be just about getting schools back before anything else changes.
If Johnson misjudges the situation, as looks very likely, I hope he pays the political price.
Golf is just walking in a place where there are far far fewer people, crazy it is banned.
Except at Cannock Park, where the public have the right to roam about more or less freely.
I have no idea how crowded it is, but am pretty sure that if there are as many people walking on the course as there are on city roads no-one would be playing golf there.
Depends *which* road. It is obviously not as crowded as the A34. But you do get more people walking/exercising their dogs than you would on the suburban residential streets around it, e.g. Cemetery Road, Westbourne Avenue. It’s bang next to Cannock Chase and Shoal Hill Common and people just wander off them on their way into the town.
Well for those of us who live in urban areas there is no golf course that could be played and have even 10% of the people who are wandering the streets we are allowed to walk in. It is safer for golf courses to be open than to push even more of us onto the same over crowded streets.
Cannock is an urban area. It’s just an urban area with a very weird shape due to a large chunk of common land being bang next to the town centre.
It is not very urban if there are seriously more people on a golf course than its streets. Im out.
With the vaccine rollout the situation has now radically changed, yet the goalposts are now being shifted compared to the assurances that were given when MPs voted for lockdown. The idea that this is all down to the need to protect against new variants makes no sense unless the UK is to maintain a NZ style prohibition on travel to and from abroad until Covid has been eliminated worldwide, which means forever and a day.
In my personal circumstances, what I find particularly onerous is the continued complete prohibition on any form of socially distanced outdoor sport in England. Golf and outdoor tennis are safer than forms of exercise currently allowed, since unlike jogging you don't repeatedly come into close proximity with anyone. Golf has continued in Scotland throughout lockdown, yet is clearly going to be banned here until some weeks after schools go back. Utterly ridiculous. The failure to make any early, small, risk-free changes means that the misery of Covid restrictions is far more intense than it need be. It should not be just about getting schools back before anything else changes.
If Johnson misjudges the situation, as looks very likely, I hope he pays the political price.
Golf is just walking in a place where there are far far fewer people, crazy it is banned.
Except at Cannock Park, where the public have the right to roam about more or less freely.
I have no idea how crowded it is, but am pretty sure that if there are as many people walking on the course as there are on city roads no-one would be playing golf there.
Depends *which* road. It is obviously not as crowded as the A34. But you do get more people walking/exercising their dogs than you would on the suburban residential streets around it, e.g. Cemetery Road, Westbourne Avenue. It’s bang next to Cannock Chase and Shoal Hill Common and people just wander off them on their way into the town.
Well for those of us who live in urban areas there is no golf course that could be played and have even 10% of the people who are wandering the streets we are allowed to walk in. It is safer for golf courses to be open than to push even more of us onto the same over crowded streets.
Cannock is an urban area. It’s just an urban area with a very weird shape due to a large chunk of common land being bang next to the town centre.
It is not very urban if there are seriously more people on a golf course than its streets. Im out.
I think possibly the issue is lower population density. I don’t know where you live, but I’m guessing there’s a lot of high rise there? In Cannock, there are precisely two blocks of residential flats, and neither rise above four storeys. The rest are houses of one sort or another.
So for example, the four mile long Pye Green Road probably has only about 1000 people living in it. Therefore, it never gets very crowded.
I’m guessing the whole population of the Cannock Urban Area (which sprawls over about 20 square miles) could be crammed within 200mx200m in Manhattan.
An NHS boss today calling for continued restrictions until NHS capacity is under control.
According to NHS bosses has NHS capacity been under control at any time in the past 40 years?
@MarqueeMark good post but do you see now how easy it would be for the government to "follow the science" and keep us locked down until further notice (I exaggerate, but only slightly).
Every winter bed occupancy in the NHS is normally above 100%.
At the hospital where my wife works the situation is returning to what it was like last summer. Shifts are being cancelled, wards are empty and bank (overtime) work is being stopped.
In Leicester we still have over 300 covid inpatients, 50+ on ICU which is running at 150% capacity. This is more than the first wave peak. We have Consultants working as ICU nurses because it is so stretched. I think this will be the case for another month. It is a slow recovery even for those who make it.
I do think some relaxations are needed, despite all this though.
Let’s hope though that Mrs Hughes’ experience is a harbinger of things to come. You guys thoroughly deserve and clearly very much need some rest.
Yeah, it is getting to me now, and Mrs Foxy too.
A thought about the queues.
So, it appears that the COVID work is reducing in hospitals. Good.
But normal working is delayed. worries about COVID transmission to patients?
What about vaccinating those in the back log of patients, and doing a push (and I mean more of shove) among NHS staff? Make hospitals COVID... safer?
Until extra cleaning and social distancing can be abandoned in waiting areas, normal service cannot be resumed. We have 6 months of cancelled outpatients to rebook. That will take years to resolve.
So if everyone is vaccinated - staff and patients - this could help?
What would it take to fix the waiting area crowding issue? Temporary buildings?
An NHS boss today calling for continued restrictions until NHS capacity is under control.
According to NHS bosses has NHS capacity been under control at any time in the past 40 years?
@MarqueeMark good post but do you see now how easy it would be for the government to "follow the science" and keep us locked down until further notice (I exaggerate, but only slightly).
Every winter bed occupancy in the NHS is normally above 100%.
At the hospital where my wife works the situation is returning to what it was like last summer. Shifts are being cancelled, wards are empty and bank (overtime) work is being stopped.
In Leicester we still have over 300 covid inpatients, 50+ on ICU which is running at 150% capacity. This is more than the first wave peak. We have Consultants working as ICU nurses because it is so stretched. I think this will be the case for another month. It is a slow recovery even for those who make it.
I do think some relaxations are needed, despite all this though.
Yes but are those Covid patients crowding out other patients as we are being told?
Of course. If the anaesthetists and theatre staff are working in surge ICU, they are not doing operating lists. Similarly if the orthopedic ward is full of respiratory covid then there is no space to do hips etc.
So my point is, as per also @NerysHughes' post - if the NHS is always at or above 100% capacity for one reason or another, Covid or not, then Chris Hopson's requirements for easing restrictions will never be met.
Now I would of course be the last person to say this might happen but what if someone was a politically-minded NHS chief whose (laudable) aim was to get the govt to spend more money on the NHS. What better way for them to force this than to threaten the whole country with lockdown until the govt, er, coughs up?
Apparently lot of the power infrastructure in Texas hasn't got cold weather protection.
I saw a claim that a company, when installing wind turbines, had offered the heating kit to protect against freezing ($5K per turbine), but it hadn't been taken up.
It’s the same everywhere, there’s never investment for the once in a decade weather. It was only a few years ago that Heathrow finally bought enough snowploughs to not have to close for the day after a couple of inches of the stuff, and in my part of the world the first rains of the year will bring the realisation that the drains are all full of sand.
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
I think that it is inevitable that there will be deep psychological scars from this pandemic. I agree that face masks in high risk situations such as the tube, public buses or airports are likely to be far more common (with a very significant upside in respect of flu infections).
I can't imagine being particularly comfortable in a large press of people at sporting events such as football or cricket for some time yet. The young at nightclubs etc will get over it fastest I suspect.
Work is a tricky one. I didn't come to Edinburgh at all in January but found (a) my productivity was very poor and deteriorating and (b) I was becoming depressed (the two being linked of course). In the last couple of weeks I have had several court hearings by webex and have used this as an excuse to come through again for a better connection and quieter facilities than I have at home. In theory I could work at home completely. In reality I just couldn't. We are social animals and screens don't cut it (I of course recognise the irony of making this point on a blogging site).
I can easily imagine being able to do the work I did most of the time n a mask, but there were times when I'm sure I would have found considerable problems; face to face discussions with patients for example. We had a similar discussion here some years ago over Moslem woman who wore the full kit in patient-facing situations. Similarly I can't imagine a teacher being able to manage a f-t-f in a mask, or similar. As an active u3a member, who belongs to several interest groups, I think I'd find masks difficult; I've got a couple of Groups meeting remotely on Friday; I'll ask for opinions. Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
"In the Commons there’s now even a growing group of Tory MPs who are pressing hard for change"
Numbers please? Because that is not what I am hearing.
There is one over-arching aim in Government - never again will there be Covid lockdowns. We will come out of lockdown when it is clear there will never be a need for more. Now, that might be quick, once the confirmation is in that a) the vaccines are as good as is hoped and b) the numbers for deliveries of those vaccines to give the jab to everyone are secured.
But if it needs an extra month to be completely sure, then the Government will take the extra pain to be able to say to the UK "Covid has been banished as an impediment to getting on with your life within this country* ". That is the political win within reach.
*Foreign travel for work or holibobs will be the very last thing to get the green light - and that could be quite some time. The UK has the genome testing capacity to know how safe it really is outside our borders. Again, the way the virus has retreated in just the past five weeks around the globe means the scope for mutations is already reducing markedly. If it continues - wonderful. But the win will not be lightly lost.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. We will be opening earlier than most - restaurants, pubs, museums, galleries, the stuff to make a memorable holiday here. An obvious choice to come here (if you can find the accommodation). I have it on very good authority that the Governor of the Bank of England is very chipper about our prospects for coming out of Covid in a most robust fashion. Things are looking up. Prepare for a much, much better year. But only when it is beaten to the point where it isn't wrecking our lives ever again.
Very good post @MarqueeMark but can you clarify a couple of things?
I understood that when we come out it will be back into the tier system - is that how you understand it?
Secondly, you appear to be suggesting that foreign travellers will be permitted to travel into the country but UK citizens will be barred from travelling out.
Yes, tiers when we reopen - but again, only reducing. So unlikely to be many seeing tier 1 or 2 immediately.
On foreign travel, the ban will stay as the last Covid measure to go. Even then, when lifted, the message will continue to be exercise caution: if you lose your money, there'll be no compensation from the Government. If we are first out of lockdowns, that still means you risk spending 14 days in quarantine when you arrive at a place that is still way behind us.
So this year, give Scotland a try instead. You'll love it.
A rather curmudgeonly thread from Mike. Of course Boris Johnson will take the plaudits for the vaccination success, even though there have been many players.
The Daily Mail and Telegraph have been constantly whining about lockdown restrictions but they've been out of kilter with public opinion.
Most of us get it that this needs to be the final lockdown and that we will ease out of it slowly. Impatience will eventually give way to happiness.
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
I think that it is inevitable that there will be deep psychological scars from this pandemic. I agree that face masks in high risk situations such as the tube, public buses or airports are likely to be far more common (with a very significant upside in respect of flu infections).
I can't imagine being particularly comfortable in a large press of people at sporting events such as football or cricket for some time yet. The young at nightclubs etc will get over it fastest I suspect.
Work is a tricky one. I didn't come to Edinburgh at all in January but found (a) my productivity was very poor and deteriorating and (b) I was becoming depressed (the two being linked of course). In the last couple of weeks I have had several court hearings by webex and have used this as an excuse to come through again for a better connection and quieter facilities than I have at home. In theory I could work at home completely. In reality I just couldn't. We are social animals and screens don't cut it (I of course recognise the irony of making this point on a blogging site).
I can easily imagine being able to do the work I did most of the time n a mask, but there were times when I'm sure I would have found considerable problems; face to face discussions with patients for example. We had a similar discussion here some years ago over Moslem woman who wore the full kit in patient-facing situations. Similarly I can't imagine a teacher being able to manage a f-t-f in a mask, or similar. As an active u3a member, who belongs to several interest groups, I think I'd find masks difficult; I've got a couple of Groups meeting remotely on Friday; I'll ask for opinions. Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
Plus people will game the system. No need for a mask while drinking? Have a permanent glass of something in your hand the whole time. Plenty of people will want to get used to holding a glass for the whole match more than they want to wear a mask for the whole match.
Apparently lot of the power infrastructure in Texas hasn't got cold weather protection.
I saw a claim that a company, when installing wind turbines, had offered the heating kit to protect against freezing ($5K per turbine), but it hadn't been taken up.
It’s the same everywhere, there’s never investment for the once in a decade weather. It was only a few years ago that Heathrow finally bought enough snowploughs to not have to close for the day after a couple of inches of the stuff, and in my part of the world the first rains of the year will bring the realisation that the drains are all full of sand.
In my wife's part of Peru, it used to rain about twice a year. A light drizzle at that. Now a bit more...
When it rained, I would take a drink and sit on the flat roof of the house, watching huge chunks of the city flashing like disco lights and then going out. Nothing was water proof. If they ever get a proper torrential storm...
I have a buddy from GW who was involved in the original WHO global vaccination programmes for smallpox and polio. From the outset, he scoffed at testing and contact tracing, saying no pandemic had ever been tamed with contact tracing. I was a little shocked that such a public health authority was so dismissive, but perhaps I should have listened ... NB He was not against testing per se, just not in relation to contact tracing as a means of quashing the pandemic.
Makes sense. Contact tracing doesn’t work for such widespread infections - it’s a struggle even with early outbreaks of something like Ebola. And it especially doesn’t work with a virus where individuals are infectious days before they display symptoms (and at least a third don’t show symptoms at all)
The resources that have been poured into what was always going to be a marginally effective program could have been far better spent. Someone with more knowledge that Harding running the program would have realised that far sooner.
Not sure I agree. It depends on what your objective is. If it is elimination of the disease, sure, its not going to work. There are too many random contacts that you will not trace in the infectious but unaware period. But if it is to find a number of those most likely infected, reduce onward transmission and reduce the R number so that so limited activity could still take place (like keeping schools open) it could help.
I think that was particularly so with the original variant. The more aggressive variants such as Kent, where much more limited exposure was necessary, were more problematic.
Read the article - the effect of contact tracing was absolutely minimal. And much of the benefit from testing was overestimated, as it compared with a baseline where no one with symptoms self isolated (which is clearly false). We’d have achieved better results if we’d done almost no testing at all,and paid anyone with symptoms £2000 a week to self-isolate.
That's not the way I read it. Obviously contact tracing does not work on its own, it has to be followed up with action such as self isolation. Taken together this seems to have reduced the R number by between 0.3 and 0.5. That is pretty disappointing compared with what the likes of Taiwan and SK achieved but it is not pointless.
To arrive at that figure for reduction, they compared it to a baseline which assumed no one with symptoms who did not get tested would self isolate. That’s patently ridiculous.
And even then, the contract tracing element accounted for 0.05.
Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
Go to a county match at Leicester. Or Derby. Problem solved, as nobody will be there and Derby hardly ever open the bar anyway.
Not that the cricket those two sides play right now is much cop, mind.
"In the Commons there’s now even a growing group of Tory MPs who are pressing hard for change"
Numbers please? Because that is not what I am hearing.
There is one over-arching aim in Government - never again will there be Covid lockdowns. We will come out of lockdown when it is clear there will never be a need for more. Now, that might be quick, once the confirmation is in that a) the vaccines are as good as is hoped and b) the numbers for deliveries of those vaccines to give the jab to everyone are secured.
But if it needs an extra month to be completely sure, then the Government will take the extra pain to be able to say to the UK "Covid has been banished as an impediment to getting on with your life within this country* ". That is the political win within reach.
*Foreign travel for work or holibobs will be the very last thing to get the green light - and that could be quite some time. The UK has the genome testing capacity to know how safe it really is outside our borders. Again, the way the virus has retreated in just the past five weeks around the globe means the scope for mutations is already reducing markedly. If it continues - wonderful. But the win will not be lightly lost.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. We will be opening earlier than most - restaurants, pubs, museums, galleries, the stuff to make a memorable holiday here. An obvious choice to come here (if you can find the accommodation). I have it on very good authority that the Governor of the Bank of England is very chipper about our prospects for coming out of Covid in a most robust fashion. Things are looking up. Prepare for a much, much better year. But only when it is beaten to the point where it isn't wrecking our lives ever again.
I'm actually hearing the opposite. There is huge frustration amongst influential people in the Party about the slowness of the proposed timetable. And that is only likely to build over time, as the weather gets better and people's thoughts turn to the summer. Many businesses are running out of cash; the vaccination programme will have covered 99% of deaths by early spring; case numbers are crashing and, whatever the polls say, people are ignoring the more stupid rules more and more. That points to much more opening much quicker once the better weather comes. Things will look very different when 8, rather than 800, deaths are being reported each day.
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
I don't think they will. If the virus has largely "disappeared" from their local area, and their parents are vacinnated, they will start to ignore the no mixing indoors rule from time to time.
This is *already* happening in my street, where I've seen an extra car overnight that then disappears about 8am the next day.
Do I say anything about it? Absolutely not. I'm not a curtain twitcher, it's not my business, people are really suffering with isolation, so I have a strong degree of sympathy, and I agree the risk is very low.
"In the Commons there’s now even a growing group of Tory MPs who are pressing hard for change"
Numbers please? Because that is not what I am hearing.
There is one over-arching aim in Government - never again will there be Covid lockdowns. We will come out of lockdown when it is clear there will never be a need for more. Now, that might be quick, once the confirmation is in that a) the vaccines are as good as is hoped and b) the numbers for deliveries of those vaccines to give the jab to everyone are secured.
But if it needs an extra month to be completely sure, then the Government will take the extra pain to be able to say to the UK "Covid has been banished as an impediment to getting on with your life within this country* ". That is the political win within reach.
*Foreign travel for work or holibobs will be the very last thing to get the green light - and that could be quite some time. The UK has the genome testing capacity to know how safe it really is outside our borders. Again, the way the virus has retreated in just the past five weeks around the globe means the scope for mutations is already reducing markedly. If it continues - wonderful. But the win will not be lightly lost.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. We will be opening earlier than most - restaurants, pubs, museums, galleries, the stuff to make a memorable holiday here. An obvious choice to come here (if you can find the accommodation). I have it on very good authority that the Governor of the Bank of England is very chipper about our prospects for coming out of Covid in a most robust fashion. Things are looking up. Prepare for a much, much better year. But only when it is beaten to the point where it isn't wrecking our lives ever again.
Very good post @MarqueeMark but can you clarify a couple of things?
I understood that when we come out it will be back into the tier system - is that how you understand it?
Secondly, you appear to be suggesting that foreign travellers will be permitted to travel into the country but UK citizens will be barred from travelling out.
Yes, tiers when we reopen - but again, only reducing. So unlikely to be many seeing tier 1 or 2 immediately.
On foreign travel, the ban will stay as the last Covid measure to go. Even then, when lifted, the message will continue to be exercise caution: if you lose your money, there'll be no compensation from the Government. If we are first out of lockdowns, that still means you risk spending 14 days in quarantine when you arrive at a place that is still way behind us.
So this year, give Scotland a try instead. You'll love it.
There is no ban on travel for tiers 1, 2 and 3. The government has the quarantine in place as per corridor lists, the hotels for arrivals from red danger areas AND an insistence that passengers have negative PCR test prior to boarding. This is understood. Re "no compensation" - yes, of course.
"In the Commons there’s now even a growing group of Tory MPs who are pressing hard for change"
Numbers please? Because that is not what I am hearing.
There is one over-arching aim in Government - never again will there be Covid lockdowns. We will come out of lockdown when it is clear there will never be a need for more. Now, that might be quick, once the confirmation is in that a) the vaccines are as good as is hoped and b) the numbers for deliveries of those vaccines to give the jab to everyone are secured.
But if it needs an extra month to be completely sure, then the Government will take the extra pain to be able to say to the UK "Covid has been banished as an impediment to getting on with your life within this country* ". That is the political win within reach.
*Foreign travel for work or holibobs will be the very last thing to get the green light - and that could be quite some time. The UK has the genome testing capacity to know how safe it really is outside our borders. Again, the way the virus has retreated in just the past five weeks around the globe means the scope for mutations is already reducing markedly. If it continues - wonderful. But the win will not be lightly lost.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. We will be opening earlier than most - restaurants, pubs, museums, galleries, the stuff to make a memorable holiday here. An obvious choice to come here (if you can find the accommodation). I have it on very good authority that the Governor of the Bank of England is very chipper about our prospects for coming out of Covid in a most robust fashion. Things are looking up. Prepare for a much, much better year. But only when it is beaten to the point where it isn't wrecking our lives ever again.
Very good post @MarqueeMark but can you clarify a couple of things?
I understood that when we come out it will be back into the tier system - is that how you understand it?
Secondly, you appear to be suggesting that foreign travellers will be permitted to travel into the country but UK citizens will be barred from travelling out.
Yes, tiers when we reopen - but again, only reducing. So unlikely to be many seeing tier 1 or 2 immediately.
On foreign travel, the ban will stay as the last Covid measure to go. Even then, when lifted, the message will continue to be exercise caution: if you lose your money, there'll be no compensation from the Government. If we are first out of lockdowns, that still means you risk spending 14 days in quarantine when you arrive at a place that is still way behind us.
So this year, give Scotland a try instead. You'll love it.
Er...no, we don’t need to give Hyufd ideas about trying Scotland, thanks.
A rather curmudgeonly thread from Mike. Of course Boris Johnson will take the plaudits for the vaccination success, even though there have been many players.
The Daily Mail and Telegraph have been constantly whining about lockdown restrictions but they've been out of kilter with public opinion.
Most of us get it that this needs to be the final lockdown and that we will ease out of it slowly. Impatience will eventually give way to happiness.
Nothing more to say. No need to moan.
"It's the Final Lockdown! pa pa paaaa-pa, pa-pa pap pap pap....."
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
I think that it is inevitable that there will be deep psychological scars from this pandemic. I agree that face masks in high risk situations such as the tube, public buses or airports are likely to be far more common (with a very significant upside in respect of flu infections).
I can't imagine being particularly comfortable in a large press of people at sporting events such as football or cricket for some time yet. The young at nightclubs etc will get over it fastest I suspect.
Work is a tricky one. I didn't come to Edinburgh at all in January but found (a) my productivity was very poor and deteriorating and (b) I was becoming depressed (the two being linked of course). In the last couple of weeks I have had several court hearings by webex and have used this as an excuse to come through again for a better connection and quieter facilities than I have at home. In theory I could work at home completely. In reality I just couldn't. We are social animals and screens don't cut it (I of course recognise the irony of making this point on a blogging site).
I can easily imagine being able to do the work I did most of the time n a mask, but there were times when I'm sure I would have found considerable problems; face to face discussions with patients for example. We had a similar discussion here some years ago over Moslem woman who wore the full kit in patient-facing situations. Similarly I can't imagine a teacher being able to manage a f-t-f in a mask, or similar. As an active u3a member, who belongs to several interest groups, I think I'd find masks difficult; I've got a couple of Groups meeting remotely on Friday; I'll ask for opinions. Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
Plus people will game the system. No need for a mask while drinking? Have a permanent glass of something in your hand the whole time. Plenty of people will want to get used to holding a glass for the whole match more than they want to wear a mask for the whole match.
An NHS boss today calling for continued restrictions until NHS capacity is under control.
According to NHS bosses has NHS capacity been under control at any time in the past 40 years?
@MarqueeMark good post but do you see now how easy it would be for the government to "follow the science" and keep us locked down until further notice (I exaggerate, but only slightly).
Every winter bed occupancy in the NHS is normally above 100%.
At the hospital where my wife works the situation is returning to what it was like last summer. Shifts are being cancelled, wards are empty and bank (overtime) work is being stopped.
In Leicester we still have over 300 covid inpatients, 50+ on ICU which is running at 150% capacity. This is more than the first wave peak. We have Consultants working as ICU nurses because it is so stretched. I think this will be the case for another month. It is a slow recovery even for those who make it.
I do think some relaxations are needed, despite all this though.
Let’s hope though that Mrs Hughes’ experience is a harbinger of things to come. You guys thoroughly deserve and clearly very much need some rest.
Yeah, it is getting to me now, and Mrs Foxy too.
A thought about the queues.
So, it appears that the COVID work is reducing in hospitals. Good.
But normal working is delayed. worries about COVID transmission to patients?
What about vaccinating those in the back log of patients, and doing a push (and I mean more of shove) among NHS staff? Make hospitals COVID... safer?
Until extra cleaning and social distancing can be abandoned in waiting areas, normal service cannot be resumed. We have 6 months of cancelled outpatients to rebook. That will take years to resolve.
If the NHS is still using private hospitals, there's that backlog also.
On topic, I guess this hinges on what your definition of "lockdown" means? Some seem to think it applies for as long as maskwearing, social distancing and a rule of 6 apply.
My definition is it ends when you're told you no longer must "stay at home", and can travel for social, domestic and leisure purposes as well as business ones.
Looking at the Mail definitions in the thread header that looks like either April or May to me, and not as late as July.
"In the Commons there’s now even a growing group of Tory MPs who are pressing hard for change"
There is one over-arching aim in Government - never again will there be Covid lockdowns. We will come out of lockdown when it is clear there will never be a need for more. Now, that might be quick, once the confirmation is in that a) the vaccines are as good as is hoped and b) the numbers for deliveries of those vaccines to give the jab to everyone are secured.
But if it needs an extra month to be completely sure, then the Government will take the extra pain to be able to say to the UK "Covid has been banished as an impediment to getting on with your life within this country* ". That is the political win within reach.
*Foreign travel for work or holibobs will be the very last thing to get the green light - and that could be quite some time. The UK has the genome testing capacity to know how safe it really is outside our borders. Again, the way the virus has retreated in just the past five weeks around the globe means the scope for mutations is already reducing markedly. If it continues - wonderful. But the win will not be lightly lost.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. We will be opening earlier than most - restaurants, pubs, museums, galleries, the stuff to make a memorable holiday here. An obvious choice to come here (if you can find the accommodation). I have it on very good authority that the Governor of the Bank of England is very chipper about our prospects for coming out of Covid in a most robust fashion. Things are looking up. Prepare for a much, much better year. But only when it is beaten to the point where it isn't wrecking our lives ever again.
An excellent post. Would have made a good thread header.
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
I think that it is inevitable that there will be deep psychological scars from this pandemic. I agree that face masks in high risk situations such as the tube, public buses or airports are likely to be far more common (with a very significant upside in respect of flu infections).
I can't imagine being particularly comfortable in a large press of people at sporting events such as football or cricket for some time yet. The young at nightclubs etc will get over it fastest I suspect.
Work is a tricky one. I didn't come to Edinburgh at all in January but found (a) my productivity was very poor and deteriorating and (b) I was becoming depressed (the two being linked of course). In the last couple of weeks I have had several court hearings by webex and have used this as an excuse to come through again for a better connection and quieter facilities than I have at home. In theory I could work at home completely. In reality I just couldn't. We are social animals and screens don't cut it (I of course recognise the irony of making this point on a blogging site).
I can easily imagine being able to do the work I did most of the time n a mask, but there were times when I'm sure I would have found considerable problems; face to face discussions with patients for example. We had a similar discussion here some years ago over Moslem woman who wore the full kit in patient-facing situations. Similarly I can't imagine a teacher being able to manage a f-t-f in a mask, or similar. As an active u3a member, who belongs to several interest groups, I think I'd find masks difficult; I've got a couple of Groups meeting remotely on Friday; I'll ask for opinions. Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
Plus people will game the system. No need for a mask while drinking? Have a permanent glass of something in your hand the whole time. Plenty of people will want to get used to holding a glass for the whole match more than they want to wear a mask for the whole match.
I know people who do that now.
Same on the trains but I don't think it's, or isn't definitely gaming as such. You have a drink/sandwich - are you really going to lift your mask up and down every time you take a sip?
Speaking for myself, I am desperate to get back to Tier 3 and some level of social interaction. Full normality, including foreign holidays at will can wait, if necessary.
Apparently lot of the power infrastructure in Texas hasn't got cold weather protection.
I saw a claim that a company, when installing wind turbines, had offered the heating kit to protect against freezing ($5K per turbine), but it hadn't been taken up.
It’s the same everywhere, there’s never investment for the once in a decade weather. It was only a few years ago that Heathrow finally bought enough snowploughs to not have to close for the day after a couple of inches of the stuff, and in my part of the world the first rains of the year will bring the realisation that the drains are all full of sand.
Thankfully, the offshore oil industry built to cater for the hundred-year wave.....
I presume they know they'll never get 50%+1 votes for pure socialism and will have to compromise with dirty centrists, Blairites and plastic Tories to get into power even with that, right?
Question for Internet experts: is there any kind of Nigel Farage blocking software that can be used with YouTube?
I am very happy for him that he has finally found his niche as a high-tech door-to-door salesman. But I don't want to see or hear him.
Question for any social media experts: I have a burning need to virtue signal my disdain for a political figure but posting on a political website is no longer doing it for me: do you have any further suggestions?
Also anything that would cover morons like DavidL, please!
"In the Commons there’s now even a growing group of Tory MPs who are pressing hard for change"
Numbers please? Because that is not what I am hearing.
There is one over-arching aim in Government - never again will there be Covid lockdowns. We will come out of lockdown when it is clear there will never be a need for more. Now, that might be quick, once the confirmation is in that a) the vaccines are as good as is hoped and b) the numbers for deliveries of those vaccines to give the jab to everyone are secured.
But if it needs an extra month to be completely sure, then the Government will take the extra pain to be able to say to the UK "Covid has been banished as an impediment to getting on with your life within this country* ". That is the political win within reach.
*Foreign travel for work or holibobs will be the very last thing to get the green light - and that could be quite some time. The UK has the genome testing capacity to know how safe it really is outside our borders. Again, the way the virus has retreated in just the past five weeks around the globe means the scope for mutations is already reducing markedly. If it continues - wonderful. But the win will not be lightly lost.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. We will be opening earlier than most - restaurants, pubs, museums, galleries, the stuff to make a memorable holiday here. An obvious choice to come here (if you can find the accommodation). I have it on very good authority that the Governor of the Bank of England is very chipper about our prospects for coming out of Covid in a most robust fashion. Things are looking up. Prepare for a much, much better year. But only when it is beaten to the point where it isn't wrecking our lives ever again.
Very good post @MarqueeMark but can you clarify a couple of things?
I understood that when we come out it will be back into the tier system - is that how you understand it?
Secondly, you appear to be suggesting that foreign travellers will be permitted to travel into the country but UK citizens will be barred from travelling out.
Yes, tiers when we reopen - but again, only reducing. So unlikely to be many seeing tier 1 or 2 immediately.
On foreign travel, the ban will stay as the last Covid measure to go. Even then, when lifted, the message will continue to be exercise caution: if you lose your money, there'll be no compensation from the Government. If we are first out of lockdowns, that still means you risk spending 14 days in quarantine when you arrive at a place that is still way behind us.
So this year, give Scotland a try instead. You'll love it.
Er...no, we don’t need to give Hyufd ideas about trying Scotland, thanks.
The issue, once more but evidently not for the final time, is hospitalisations.
When the number of Covid hospitalisations decreases then there will be very few reasons to maintain restrictions. As Matt Hancock said, at that point we will live with this like we do the flu.
And again to use the flu analogy (only analogy - Covid is not the flu); we have thousands of people dying each year of it. The government and the hospitals live with that (albeit with complaining as per The Graun every year for the past 20 years) and so must we.
On topic, I guess this hinges on what your definition of "lockdown" means? Some seem to think it applies for as long as maskwearing, social distancing and a rule of 6 apply.
My definition is it ends when you're told you no longer must "stay at home", and can travel for social, domestic and leisure purposes as well as business ones.
Looking at the Mail definitions in the thread header that looks like either April or May to me, and not as late as July.
Yep.
The mystery of India is continuing to cause head scratching amongst scientists. One theory is that mask wearing is responsible.
There's obviously by now lots of evidence that a good mask prevents a lot of airborne virus transmission as well as the more obvious droplet one.
I mention this because the Gov't could sell this pretty strongly: put up with mask wearing for a while in indoor public venues as the price we pay for ending of almost all other restrictions.
If that was the offer almost everyone in the country would take it. Except Laurence Fox, obvs.
Pretty shabby that Sacoolas tried to have the US damages case against her dismissed on grounds that it should be held in the UK, yet continues to refuse to come to the UK for any trial.
Monday is the big one. This must be the last lockdown. The Plan has to set out hope but be balanced with prudence and reality. We are making good progress but we still have a way to go with vaccinations.
A rather curmudgeonly thread from Mike. Of course Boris Johnson will take the plaudits for the vaccination success, even though there have been many players.
The Daily Mail and Telegraph have been constantly whining about lockdown restrictions but they've been out of kilter with public opinion.
Most of us get it that this needs to be the final lockdown and that we will ease out of it slowly. Impatience will eventually give way to happiness.
Nothing more to say. No need to moan.
"It's the Final Lockdown! pa pa paaaa-pa, pa-pa pap pap pap....."
I get the joke, but in seriousness I don`t think you can say that. I agree it may be the final lockdown from this government but what if Labour wins and a new variant/ new virus comes in? The rate we are chopping down trees and nudging up to nature as never before means that it is just a matter of time.
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
I think that it is inevitable that there will be deep psychological scars from this pandemic. I agree that face masks in high risk situations such as the tube, public buses or airports are likely to be far more common (with a very significant upside in respect of flu infections).
I can't imagine being particularly comfortable in a large press of people at sporting events such as football or cricket for some time yet. The young at nightclubs etc will get over it fastest I suspect.
Work is a tricky one. I didn't come to Edinburgh at all in January but found (a) my productivity was very poor and deteriorating and (b) I was becoming depressed (the two being linked of course). In the last couple of weeks I have had several court hearings by webex and have used this as an excuse to come through again for a better connection and quieter facilities than I have at home. In theory I could work at home completely. In reality I just couldn't. We are social animals and screens don't cut it (I of course recognise the irony of making this point on a blogging site).
I can easily imagine being able to do the work I did most of the time n a mask, but there were times when I'm sure I would have found considerable problems; face to face discussions with patients for example. We had a similar discussion here some years ago over Moslem woman who wore the full kit in patient-facing situations. Similarly I can't imagine a teacher being able to manage a f-t-f in a mask, or similar. As an active u3a member, who belongs to several interest groups, I think I'd find masks difficult; I've got a couple of Groups meeting remotely on Friday; I'll ask for opinions. Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
Plus people will game the system. No need for a mask while drinking? Have a permanent glass of something in your hand the whole time. Plenty of people will want to get used to holding a glass for the whole match more than they want to wear a mask for the whole match.
I know people who do that now.
Same on the trains but I don't think it's, or isn't definitely gaming as such. You have a drink/sandwich - are you really going to lift your mask up and down every time you take a sip?
I do. It's not a big deal. Pop it down, pop it up.
There was all of this when seatbelts were made compulsory but I bet you that 99 times out of 100 you don't even think about it now.
On topic, I guess this hinges on what your definition of "lockdown" means? Some seem to think it applies for as long as maskwearing, social distancing and a rule of 6 apply.
My definition is it ends when you're told you no longer must "stay at home", and can travel for social, domestic and leisure purposes as well as business ones.
Looking at the Mail definitions in the thread header that looks like either April or May to me, and not as late as July.
Yep.
The mystery of India is continuing to cause head scratching amongst scientists. One theory is that mask wearing is responsible.
There's obviously by now lots of evidence that a good mask prevents a lot of airborne virus transmission as well as the more obvious droplet one.
I mention this because the Gov't could sell this pretty strongly: put up with mask wearing for a while in indoor public venues as the price we pay for ending of almost all other restrictions.
If that was the offer almost everyone in the country would take it. Except Laurence Fox, obvs.
I thought India was because there is a far greater exposure and hence tolerance to germs.
Every time nanny rushes over to prevent little Timmy from eating worms in Kensington Gardens is weakening us nationally.
Apparently lot of the power infrastructure in Texas hasn't got cold weather protection.
I saw a claim that a company, when installing wind turbines, had offered the heating kit to protect against freezing ($5K per turbine), but it hadn't been taken up.
It’s the same everywhere, there’s never investment for the once in a decade weather. It was only a few years ago that Heathrow finally bought enough snowploughs to not have to close for the day after a couple of inches of the stuff, and in my part of the world the first rains of the year will bring the realisation that the drains are all full of sand.
Thankfully, the offshore oil industry built to cater for the hundred-year wave.....
Oh yes, there comes a point at which the freak weather will cost so much money, or lead directly to deaths and injuries, that the expense of building for it is justified.
"In the Commons there’s now even a growing group of Tory MPs who are pressing hard for change"
Numbers please? Because that is not what I am hearing.
There is one over-arching aim in Government - never again will there be Covid lockdowns. We will come out of lockdown when it is clear there will never be a need for more. Now, that might be quick, once the confirmation is in that a) the vaccines are as good as is hoped and b) the numbers for deliveries of those vaccines to give the jab to everyone are secured.
But if it needs an extra month to be completely sure, then the Government will take the extra pain to be able to say to the UK "Covid has been banished as an impediment to getting on with your life within this country* ". That is the political win within reach.
*Foreign travel for work or holibobs will be the very last thing to get the green light - and that could be quite some time. The UK has the genome testing capacity to know how safe it really is outside our borders. Again, the way the virus has retreated in just the past five weeks around the globe means the scope for mutations is already reducing markedly. If it continues - wonderful. But the win will not be lightly lost.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. We will be opening earlier than most - restaurants, pubs, museums, galleries, the stuff to make a memorable holiday here. An obvious choice to come here (if you can find the accommodation). I have it on very good authority that the Governor of the Bank of England is very chipper about our prospects for coming out of Covid in a most robust fashion. Things are looking up. Prepare for a much, much better year. But only when it is beaten to the point where it isn't wrecking our lives ever again.
Very good post @MarqueeMark but can you clarify a couple of things?
I understood that when we come out it will be back into the tier system - is that how you understand it?
Secondly, you appear to be suggesting that foreign travellers will be permitted to travel into the country but UK citizens will be barred from travelling out.
Yes, tiers when we reopen - but again, only reducing. So unlikely to be many seeing tier 1 or 2 immediately.
On foreign travel, the ban will stay as the last Covid measure to go. Even then, when lifted, the message will continue to be exercise caution: if you lose your money, there'll be no compensation from the Government. If we are first out of lockdowns, that still means you risk spending 14 days in quarantine when you arrive at a place that is still way behind us.
So this year, give Scotland a try instead. You'll love it.
Er...no, we don’t need to give Hyufd ideas about trying Scotland, thanks.
Maybe if he did he might mellow out though?
He’s been talking of having them all shot. Any trial he gave them would be a show trial leading to an immediate guilty verdict.
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
I think that it is inevitable that there will be deep psychological scars from this pandemic. I agree that face masks in high risk situations such as the tube, public buses or airports are likely to be far more common (with a very significant upside in respect of flu infections).
I can't imagine being particularly comfortable in a large press of people at sporting events such as football or cricket for some time yet. The young at nightclubs etc will get over it fastest I suspect.
Work is a tricky one. I didn't come to Edinburgh at all in January but found (a) my productivity was very poor and deteriorating and (b) I was becoming depressed (the two being linked of course). In the last couple of weeks I have had several court hearings by webex and have used this as an excuse to come through again for a better connection and quieter facilities than I have at home. In theory I could work at home completely. In reality I just couldn't. We are social animals and screens don't cut it (I of course recognise the irony of making this point on a blogging site).
I can easily imagine being able to do the work I did most of the time n a mask, but there were times when I'm sure I would have found considerable problems; face to face discussions with patients for example. We had a similar discussion here some years ago over Moslem woman who wore the full kit in patient-facing situations. Similarly I can't imagine a teacher being able to manage a f-t-f in a mask, or similar. As an active u3a member, who belongs to several interest groups, I think I'd find masks difficult; I've got a couple of Groups meeting remotely on Friday; I'll ask for opinions. Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
Plus people will game the system. No need for a mask while drinking? Have a permanent glass of something in your hand the whole time. Plenty of people will want to get used to holding a glass for the whole match more than they want to wear a mask for the whole match.
I know people who do that now.
Same on the trains but I don't think it's, or isn't definitely gaming as such. You have a drink/sandwich - are you really going to lift your mask up and down every time you take a sip?
I do. It's not a big deal. Pop it down, pop it up.
There was all of this when seatbelts were made compulsory but I bet you that 99 times out of 100 you don't even think about it now.
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, there is no need to take your seatbelt off and on during the course of a car journey.
He'd get in on Washington DC's criteria, BMI > 25. Or Virginia, BMI > 20... BMI > 40 is used here for the flu jab so I imagine that takes one into cat 6 JCVI.
Question for Internet experts: is there any kind of Nigel Farage blocking software that can be used with YouTube?
I am very happy for him that he has finally found his niche as a high-tech door-to-door salesman. But I don't want to see or hear him.
Question for any social media experts: I have a burning need to virtue signal my disdain for a political figure but posting on a political website is no longer doing it for me: do you have any further suggestions?
Also anything that would cover morons like DavidL, please!
A rather curmudgeonly thread from Mike. Of course Boris Johnson will take the plaudits for the vaccination success, even though there have been many players.
The Daily Mail and Telegraph have been constantly whining about lockdown restrictions but they've been out of kilter with public opinion.
Most of us get it that this needs to be the final lockdown and that we will ease out of it slowly. Impatience will eventually give way to happiness.
Nothing more to say. No need to moan.
"It's the Final Lockdown! pa pa paaaa-pa, pa-pa pap pap pap....."
I get the joke, but in seriousness I don`t think you can say that. I agree it may be the final lockdown from this government but what if Labour wins and a new variant/ new virus comes in? The rate we are chopping down trees and nudging up to nature as never before means that it is just a matter of time.
It's just a matter of time to the next pandemic that's what worries me more. This isn't the first potential pandemic this century it's about the eighth. There's been one almost like clockwork every other year from SARS onwards.
So before the next General Election there's likely to be another potential pandemic. What lessons will we learn from this one? Will we under or overreact?
Best lesson to draw is probably to get the masks back out immediately. Minimal restriction, decent precautionary measure.
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
I think that it is inevitable that there will be deep psychological scars from this pandemic. I agree that face masks in high risk situations such as the tube, public buses or airports are likely to be far more common (with a very significant upside in respect of flu infections).
I can't imagine being particularly comfortable in a large press of people at sporting events such as football or cricket for some time yet. The young at nightclubs etc will get over it fastest I suspect.
Work is a tricky one. I didn't come to Edinburgh at all in January but found (a) my productivity was very poor and deteriorating and (b) I was becoming depressed (the two being linked of course). In the last couple of weeks I have had several court hearings by webex and have used this as an excuse to come through again for a better connection and quieter facilities than I have at home. In theory I could work at home completely. In reality I just couldn't. We are social animals and screens don't cut it (I of course recognise the irony of making this point on a blogging site).
I can easily imagine being able to do the work I did most of the time n a mask, but there were times when I'm sure I would have found considerable problems; face to face discussions with patients for example. We had a similar discussion here some years ago over Moslem woman who wore the full kit in patient-facing situations. Similarly I can't imagine a teacher being able to manage a f-t-f in a mask, or similar. As an active u3a member, who belongs to several interest groups, I think I'd find masks difficult; I've got a couple of Groups meeting remotely on Friday; I'll ask for opinions. Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
Plus people will game the system. No need for a mask while drinking? Have a permanent glass of something in your hand the whole time. Plenty of people will want to get used to holding a glass for the whole match more than they want to wear a mask for the whole match.
I know people who do that now.
Same on the trains but I don't think it's, or isn't definitely gaming as such. You have a drink/sandwich - are you really going to lift your mask up and down every time you take a sip?
I do. It's not a big deal. Pop it down, pop it up.
There was all of this when seatbelts were made compulsory but I bet you that 99 times out of 100 you don't even think about it now.
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, there is no need to take your seatbelt off and on during the course of a car journey.
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious that's untrue. Pop out to the shops and you're frequently taking it on and off.
Just belt up.
A little mask wearing for the ending of genuine restrictions is a very, very, small price to pay. Asia gets it. Only blockheaded Brits, of whom there are still some, don't.
The smart money is on booking your holiday in 2021 in Northumberland. Or Scotland. Or Devon. That spend will be a one-off boost to a nation whose residents spent £62.3 billion on visits overseas in 2019, compared to overseas residents spending £28.4 billion on visits to the UK in 2019. Some of that overseas money will still come here, if it is from people with (non-forged) vaccine certificates. .
Incidentally, that is economically illiterate, for the simple reason that most of the money spent on visits overseas is actually spent in this country - on British airlines and tour operators, for a start. So the one-off boost will be pretty trivial, and more than offset by the damage to this country's long-term reputation I'm afraid, never mind the impact on civil liberties.
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
I think that it is inevitable that there will be deep psychological scars from this pandemic. I agree that face masks in high risk situations such as the tube, public buses or airports are likely to be far more common (with a very significant upside in respect of flu infections).
I can't imagine being particularly comfortable in a large press of people at sporting events such as football or cricket for some time yet. The young at nightclubs etc will get over it fastest I suspect.
Work is a tricky one. I didn't come to Edinburgh at all in January but found (a) my productivity was very poor and deteriorating and (b) I was becoming depressed (the two being linked of course). In the last couple of weeks I have had several court hearings by webex and have used this as an excuse to come through again for a better connection and quieter facilities than I have at home. In theory I could work at home completely. In reality I just couldn't. We are social animals and screens don't cut it (I of course recognise the irony of making this point on a blogging site).
I can easily imagine being able to do the work I did most of the time n a mask, but there were times when I'm sure I would have found considerable problems; face to face discussions with patients for example. We had a similar discussion here some years ago over Moslem woman who wore the full kit in patient-facing situations. Similarly I can't imagine a teacher being able to manage a f-t-f in a mask, or similar. As an active u3a member, who belongs to several interest groups, I think I'd find masks difficult; I've got a couple of Groups meeting remotely on Friday; I'll ask for opinions. Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
Plus people will game the system. No need for a mask while drinking? Have a permanent glass of something in your hand the whole time. Plenty of people will want to get used to holding a glass for the whole match more than they want to wear a mask for the whole match.
My experience of rugby is that a fairly high proportion of the crowd won’t have to game the system to have a drink in their hand for the entire match; at Twickenham the rule is no more than four pints per person per visit to the bar...
On topic, I guess this hinges on what your definition of "lockdown" means? Some seem to think it applies for as long as maskwearing, social distancing and a rule of 6 apply.
My definition is it ends when you're told you no longer must "stay at home", and can travel for social, domestic and leisure purposes as well as business ones.
Looking at the Mail definitions in the thread header that looks like either April or May to me, and not as late as July.
Yep.
The mystery of India is continuing to cause head scratching amongst scientists. One theory is that mask wearing is responsible.
There's obviously by now lots of evidence that a good mask prevents a lot of airborne virus transmission as well as the more obvious droplet one.
I mention this because the Gov't could sell this pretty strongly: put up with mask wearing for a while in indoor public venues as the price we pay for ending of almost all other restrictions.
If that was the offer almost everyone in the country would take it. Except Laurence Fox, obvs.
That is an interesting thought. I would love to know what people who have to wear masks nearly all the time think. Did they just get used to them? I do not like wearing them, but it doesn't cause me any issues because I appreciate the benefits of doing so and I am fortunate that I don't have to do it very much. Bars and restaurants are obviously impossible and a packed bar must be a top spreading environment. I can't see it working at a pop concert either.
A rather curmudgeonly thread from Mike. Of course Boris Johnson will take the plaudits for the vaccination success, even though there have been many players.
The Daily Mail and Telegraph have been constantly whining about lockdown restrictions but they've been out of kilter with public opinion.
Most of us get it that this needs to be the final lockdown and that we will ease out of it slowly. Impatience will eventually give way to happiness.
Nothing more to say. No need to moan.
Mike is right. This is amplified by the fact that although Johnson hit his target of 15 million vaccinations by last Monday, Johnson's usual triumphalism was very much tempered. All the more surprising as he had been heralding his undoubted success with vaccinations up to a crescendo since Christmas. And there we were on Tuesday, mission accomplished with a whimper rather than a bang.
Now this might be a good thing, maybe a sign that Allegra and NutNuts are reigning in Johnson's previously over-enthusiastic bragging and previously chaotic communications.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
On topic, I guess this hinges on what your definition of "lockdown" means? Some seem to think it applies for as long as maskwearing, social distancing and a rule of 6 apply.
My definition is it ends when you're told you no longer must "stay at home", and can travel for social, domestic and leisure purposes as well as business ones.
Looking at the Mail definitions in the thread header that looks like either April or May to me, and not as late as July.
Yep.
The mystery of India is continuing to cause head scratching amongst scientists. One theory is that mask wearing is responsible.
There's obviously by now lots of evidence that a good mask prevents a lot of airborne virus transmission as well as the more obvious droplet one.
I mention this because the Gov't could sell this pretty strongly: put up with mask wearing for a while in indoor public venues as the price we pay for ending of almost all other restrictions.
If that was the offer almost everyone in the country would take it. Except Laurence Fox, obvs.
I thought India was because there is a far greater exposure and hence tolerance to germs. .
I think the jury is still out. They're not really sure why the disaster has failed to materialise and infection rates are dropping. It may be herd immunity. It may be germ exposure. It may be mask wearing - which was made compulsory outdoors. Or it may be a combination of all three.
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
I think that it is inevitable that there will be deep psychological scars from this pandemic. I agree that face masks in high risk situations such as the tube, public buses or airports are likely to be far more common (with a very significant upside in respect of flu infections).
I can't imagine being particularly comfortable in a large press of people at sporting events such as football or cricket for some time yet. The young at nightclubs etc will get over it fastest I suspect.
Work is a tricky one. I didn't come to Edinburgh at all in January but found (a) my productivity was very poor and deteriorating and (b) I was becoming depressed (the two being linked of course). In the last couple of weeks I have had several court hearings by webex and have used this as an excuse to come through again for a better connection and quieter facilities than I have at home. In theory I could work at home completely. In reality I just couldn't. We are social animals and screens don't cut it (I of course recognise the irony of making this point on a blogging site).
I can easily imagine being able to do the work I did most of the time n a mask, but there were times when I'm sure I would have found considerable problems; face to face discussions with patients for example. We had a similar discussion here some years ago over Moslem woman who wore the full kit in patient-facing situations. Similarly I can't imagine a teacher being able to manage a f-t-f in a mask, or similar. As an active u3a member, who belongs to several interest groups, I think I'd find masks difficult; I've got a couple of Groups meeting remotely on Friday; I'll ask for opinions. Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
Plus people will game the system. No need for a mask while drinking? Have a permanent glass of something in your hand the whole time. Plenty of people will want to get used to holding a glass for the whole match more than they want to wear a mask for the whole match.
I know people who do that now.
Same on the trains but I don't think it's, or isn't definitely gaming as such. You have a drink/sandwich - are you really going to lift your mask up and down every time you take a sip?
I do. It's not a big deal. Pop it down, pop it up.
There was all of this when seatbelts were made compulsory but I bet you that 99 times out of 100 you don't even think about it now.
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, there is no need to take your seatbelt off and on during the course of a car journey.
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious that's untrue. Pop out to the shops and you're frequently taking it on and off.
Just belt up.
A little mask wearing for the ending of genuine restrictions is a very, very, small price to pay. Asia gets it. Only blockheaded Brits, of whom there are still some, don't.
First off you should be walking to the shops. Second of all, what about Ocado? And thirdly, I said "during the course of a car journey".
On topic, I guess this hinges on what your definition of "lockdown" means? Some seem to think it applies for as long as maskwearing, social distancing and a rule of 6 apply.
My definition is it ends when you're told you no longer must "stay at home", and can travel for social, domestic and leisure purposes as well as business ones.
Looking at the Mail definitions in the thread header that looks like either April or May to me, and not as late as July.
Yep.
The mystery of India is continuing to cause head scratching amongst scientists. One theory is that mask wearing is responsible.
There's obviously by now lots of evidence that a good mask prevents a lot of airborne virus transmission as well as the more obvious droplet one.
I mention this because the Gov't could sell this pretty strongly: put up with mask wearing for a while in indoor public venues as the price we pay for ending of almost all other restrictions.
If that was the offer almost everyone in the country would take it. Except Laurence Fox, obvs.
That is an interesting thought. I would love to know what people who have to wear masks nearly all the time think. Did they just get used to them? I do not like wearing them, but it doesn't cause me any issues because I appreciate the benefits of doing so and I am fortunate that I don't have to do it very much. Bars and restaurants are obviously impossible and a packed bar must be a top spreading environment. I can't see it working at a pop concert either.
"Asia" wore them for years for no good reason. Now there is a reason. Was their years and years of wearing masks justified because eventually along came a global pandemic?
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
I think that it is inevitable that there will be deep psychological scars from this pandemic. I agree that face masks in high risk situations such as the tube, public buses or airports are likely to be far more common (with a very significant upside in respect of flu infections).
I can't imagine being particularly comfortable in a large press of people at sporting events such as football or cricket for some time yet. The young at nightclubs etc will get over it fastest I suspect.
Work is a tricky one. I didn't come to Edinburgh at all in January but found (a) my productivity was very poor and deteriorating and (b) I was becoming depressed (the two being linked of course). In the last couple of weeks I have had several court hearings by webex and have used this as an excuse to come through again for a better connection and quieter facilities than I have at home. In theory I could work at home completely. In reality I just couldn't. We are social animals and screens don't cut it (I of course recognise the irony of making this point on a blogging site).
I can easily imagine being able to do the work I did most of the time n a mask, but there were times when I'm sure I would have found considerable problems; face to face discussions with patients for example. We had a similar discussion here some years ago over Moslem woman who wore the full kit in patient-facing situations. Similarly I can't imagine a teacher being able to manage a f-t-f in a mask, or similar. As an active u3a member, who belongs to several interest groups, I think I'd find masks difficult; I've got a couple of Groups meeting remotely on Friday; I'll ask for opinions. Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
Plus people will game the system. No need for a mask while drinking? Have a permanent glass of something in your hand the whole time. Plenty of people will want to get used to holding a glass for the whole match more than they want to wear a mask for the whole match.
I know people who do that now.
Same on the trains but I don't think it's, or isn't definitely gaming as such. You have a drink/sandwich - are you really going to lift your mask up and down every time you take a sip?
I do. It's not a big deal. Pop it down, pop it up.
There was all of this when seatbelts were made compulsory but I bet you that 99 times out of 100 you don't even think about it now.
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, there is no need to take your seatbelt off and on during the course of a car journey.
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious that's untrue. Pop out to the shops and you're frequently taking it on and off.
Just belt up.
A little mask wearing for the ending of genuine restrictions is a very, very, small price to pay. Asia gets it. Only blockheaded Brits, of whom there are still some, don't.
First off you should be walking to the shops. Second of all, what about Ocado? And thirdly, I said "during the course of a car journey".
The third is petty, as you know full well.
The second would be impossible as no food delivery service would come to me.
Because the first would be tricky. Although I walk about 5 miles every day I live 22 miles from the nearest shop.
An NHS boss today calling for continued restrictions until NHS capacity is under control.
According to NHS bosses has NHS capacity been under control at any time in the past 40 years?
@MarqueeMark good post but do you see now how easy it would be for the government to "follow the science" and keep us locked down until further notice (I exaggerate, but only slightly).
Every winter bed occupancy in the NHS is normally above 100%.
At the hospital where my wife works the situation is returning to what it was like last summer. Shifts are being cancelled, wards are empty and bank (overtime) work is being stopped.
In Leicester we still have over 300 covid inpatients, 50+ on ICU which is running at 150% capacity. This is more than the first wave peak. We have Consultants working as ICU nurses because it is so stretched. I think this will be the case for another month. It is a slow recovery even for those who make it.
I do think some relaxations are needed, despite all this though.
Yes but are those Covid patients crowding out other patients as we are being told?
Of course. If the anaesthetists and theatre staff are working in surge ICU, they are not doing operating lists. Similarly if the orthopedic ward is full of respiratory covid then there is no space to do hips etc.
So my point is, as per also @NerysHughes' post - if the NHS is always at or above 100% capacity for one reason or another, Covid or not, then Chris Hopson's requirements for easing restrictions will never be met.
Now I would of course be the last person to say this might happen but what if someone was a politically-minded NHS chief whose (laudable) aim was to get the govt to spend more money on the NHS. What better way for them to force this than to threaten the whole country with lockdown until the govt, er, coughs up?
I think that NHS Chief would be very unwise, and if they can't play nicely during a pandemic catastrophe they should be shown the door immediately.
A rather curmudgeonly thread from Mike. Of course Boris Johnson will take the plaudits for the vaccination success, even though there have been many players.
The Daily Mail and Telegraph have been constantly whining about lockdown restrictions but they've been out of kilter with public opinion.
Most of us get it that this needs to be the final lockdown and that we will ease out of it slowly. Impatience will eventually give way to happiness.
Nothing more to say. No need to moan.
Mike is right. This is amplified by the fact that although Johnson hit his target of 15 million vaccinations by last Monday, Johnson's usual triumphalism was very much tempered. All the more surprising as he had been heralding his undoubted success with vaccinations up to a crescendo since Christmas. And there we were on Tuesday, mission accomplished with a whimper rather than a bang.
Now this might be a good thing, maybe a sign that Allegra and NutNuts are reigning in Johnson's previously over-enthusiastic bragging and previously chaotic communications.
I think it's the lagging deaths. Remember it essentially takes six weeks from vaccination to preventing death.
600 people a day are still dying, infected before they could be vaccinated. Possibly over ten thousand peoples deaths are yet to be confirmed, infected before they could be vaccinated.
Striking a humble tone over getting this done right is probably best until the deaths stop.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
[edit]
.
Thank you for sharing your heartfelt and honest state, Casino Royale. I'm really sorry you feel as you do
I believe you are right: most everyone I know feels similarly. It's bloody, bloody, hard.
What I would say is that we are coming out of the tunnel. Try to hold on for a little longer and if that means you bend the rules in the meantime, you're certainly not going to face criticism from me. Whilst I broadly support current Gov't measures, there has to be latitude for anyone at the end of their coping mechanisms.
That's also why this has to be the Final Lockdown. No one will follow another one.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
Stay with it. And PB is a great outlet for some of those feelings. We all get it on here. You fucker.
Also, very sadly no one can wave a magic wand and make it "ok" but, and it's just my experience, exercise can be such a solver of so many problems. There is the chemical/endorphin element, and there is also the getting active one, plus exercise is "good for you" so you finish and you feel some kind of sense of achievement.
Of course it's circular - feel down, can't be bothered to do anything including exercise. Hence my view (in good times and bad) that for it to be viable, exercise has to be part of your daily routine, not "an event". So schedule it in, enlist your wife so that at XX o'clock it's your exercise time.
Start off with some reps - push-ups, sit-ups, plank, have you any free weights - nothing too dramatic 15-20 mins is fine. Then see how that goes.
No idea on the finances or availability but an exercise bike or running machine while the weather's shit. Or as I said yesterday, a VR headset. Can have plenty of fun and exercise with that.
A rather curmudgeonly thread from Mike. Of course Boris Johnson will take the plaudits for the vaccination success, even though there have been many players.
The Daily Mail and Telegraph have been constantly whining about lockdown restrictions but they've been out of kilter with public opinion.
Most of us get it that this needs to be the final lockdown and that we will ease out of it slowly. Impatience will eventually give way to happiness.
Nothing more to say. No need to moan.
Mike is right. This is amplified by the fact that although Johnson hit his target of 15 million vaccinations by last Monday, Johnson's usual triumphalism was very much tempered. All the more surprising as he had been heralding his undoubted success with vaccinations up to a crescendo since Christmas. And there we were on Tuesday, mission accomplished with a whimper rather than a bang.
Now this might be a good thing, maybe a sign that Allegra and NutNuts are reigning in Johnson's previously over-enthusiastic bragging and previously chaotic communications.
I think it's the lagging deaths. Remember it essentially takes six weeks from vaccination to preventing death.
600 people a day are still dying, infected before they could be vaccinated. Possibly over ten thousand peoples deaths are yet to be confirmed, infected before they could be vaccinated.
Striking a humble tone over getting this done right is probably best until the deaths stop.
I don't dispute the wisdom of the understatement. It is certainly a new departure for Johnson.
I have a buddy from GW who was involved in the original WHO global vaccination programmes for smallpox and polio. From the outset, he scoffed at testing and contact tracing, saying no pandemic had ever been tamed with contact tracing. I was a little shocked that such a public health authority was so dismissive, but perhaps I should have listened ... NB He was not against testing per se, just not in relation to contact tracing as a means of quashing the pandemic.
Makes sense. Contact tracing doesn’t work for such widespread infections - it’s a struggle even with early outbreaks of something like Ebola. And it especially doesn’t work with a virus where individuals are infectious days before they display symptoms (and at least a third don’t show symptoms at all)
The resources that have been poured into what was always going to be a marginally effective program could have been far better spent. Someone with more knowledge that Harding running the program would have realised that far sooner.
Not sure I agree. It depends on what your objective is. If it is elimination of the disease, sure, its not going to work. There are too many random contacts that you will not trace in the infectious but unaware period. But if it is to find a number of those most likely infected, reduce onward transmission and reduce the R number so that so limited activity could still take place (like keeping schools open) it could help.
I think that was particularly so with the original variant. The more aggressive variants such as Kent, where much more limited exposure was necessary, were more problematic.
Read the article - the effect of contact tracing was absolutely minimal. And much of the benefit from testing was overestimated, as it compared with a baseline where no one with symptoms self isolated (which is clearly false). We’d have achieved better results if we’d done almost no testing at all,and paid anyone with symptoms £2000 a week to self-isolate.
We might, however, have discovered a dramatic and not necessarily authentic increase in people with symptoms
Seriously though, given the sums involved, a very generous isolation payment combined with e.g. a compulsory (to claim the money) ankle bracelet tracker, might indeed have been a better use of the money.
Question for Internet experts: is there any kind of Nigel Farage blocking software that can be used with YouTube?
I am very happy for him that he has finally found his niche as a high-tech door-to-door salesman. But I don't want to see or hear him.
Question for any social media experts: I have a burning need to virtue signal my disdain for a political figure but posting on a political website is no longer doing it for me: do you have any further suggestions?
Also anything that would cover morons like DavidL, please!
Hit home much?
Extend that also to people who think of archaic teenage Californiaisms as witty ripostes ...
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
Good post, whilst I`m not experience everything you are, overall I`m devastated by this too. Life put on hold; for me, my wife and my two teenage children. I`m urging on the cohort of Tory backbenchers who value liberty above everything else.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
Stay with it. And PB is a great outlet for some of those feelings. We all get it on here. You fucker.
Also, very sadly no one can wave a magic wand and make it "ok" but, and it's just my experience, exercise can be such a solver of so many problems. There is the chemical/endorphin element, and there is also the getting active one, plus exercise is "good for you" so you finish and you feel some kind of sense of achievement.
Of course it's circular - feel down, can't be bothered to do anything including exercise. Hence my view (in good times and bad) that for it to be viable, exercise has to be part of your daily routine, not "an event". So schedule it in, enlist your wife so that at XX o'clock it's your exercise time.
Start off with some reps - push-ups, sit-ups, plank, have you any free weights - nothing too dramatic 15-20 mins is fine. Then see how that goes.
No idea on the finances or availability but an exercise bike or running machine while the weather's shit. Or as I said yesterday, a VR headset. Can have plenty of fun and exercise with that.
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
Those individuals and firms profiting greatly from HS2 contracts and inflated salaries claim to expect work patterns to be absolutely unaltered, with shares in Zoom obviously due to collapse in 2022 and remote business meetings and working from home to quickly become a thing of the past. Actually, they don't, but they maintain the facade that they do as the current Government is quite happy for future governments to pick up the bill for their flawed flawed assumptions. Johnson likes vanity projects and parliamentary approval to construct the route to Manchester was quietly slipped through during this lockdown.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
Commiserations. I am prone to periods where life is like swimming through treacle. You know exactly what you need to do, but can't get round to doing even the most basic chores. Keep with the walks though. Make them longer. They are the best thing you can do to break out.
This lockdown has also coincided with the darkest months of the year. No doubt many people are being triggered by SAD this time around. Get yourself a SAD light box. I know friends who, even before this year, swear by them.
Covid can still be very nasty for younger people, I expect people are going to continue with a personal semi lockdown till jabbed up.
+21 days. It has been the same throughout this crisis. The government has had limitations and regulations but anyone sane has also taken reasonable steps to protect themselves from a pernicious illness that can occasionally be fatal but more often is life changingly unpleasant.
It will take time for people to get their confidence back and that time will have an economic cost.
Yes, that's right, and not a political point. That's also why public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of erring on the side of caution. Sure, we'd all like to see relatives and move around more easily, but most people will put that off till, say, July, if they feel it will make a real difference in pandemic control.
What I'm curious about is how far behaviour will change permanently. Most people seem to expect office workers to operate at least 50% from whom, forever. On the last thread someone said that he hated masks and so did most people, and I said I thought most just saw them as a mild nuisance. Might they become commonplace in public interaction, as in urban Japan? Will events where half the point is the crowd (football matches, dance clubs) change in future? Regardless of what we'd like individually, whyat do we actually expect?
I think that it is inevitable that there will be deep psychological scars from this pandemic. I agree that face masks in high risk situations such as the tube, public buses or airports are likely to be far more common (with a very significant upside in respect of flu infections).
I can't imagine being particularly comfortable in a large press of people at sporting events such as football or cricket for some time yet. The young at nightclubs etc will get over it fastest I suspect.
Work is a tricky one. I didn't come to Edinburgh at all in January but found (a) my productivity was very poor and deteriorating and (b) I was becoming depressed (the two being linked of course). In the last couple of weeks I have had several court hearings by webex and have used this as an excuse to come through again for a better connection and quieter facilities than I have at home. In theory I could work at home completely. In reality I just couldn't. We are social animals and screens don't cut it (I of course recognise the irony of making this point on a blogging site).
I can easily imagine being able to do the work I did most of the time n a mask, but there were times when I'm sure I would have found considerable problems; face to face discussions with patients for example. We had a similar discussion here some years ago over Moslem woman who wore the full kit in patient-facing situations. Similarly I can't imagine a teacher being able to manage a f-t-f in a mask, or similar. As an active u3a member, who belongs to several interest groups, I think I'd find masks difficult; I've got a couple of Groups meeting remotely on Friday; I'll ask for opinions. Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
Plus people will game the system. No need for a mask while drinking? Have a permanent glass of something in your hand the whole time. Plenty of people will want to get used to holding a glass for the whole match more than they want to wear a mask for the whole match.
I know people who do that now.
Same on the trains but I don't think it's, or isn't definitely gaming as such. You have a drink/sandwich - are you really going to lift your mask up and down every time you take a sip?
I do. It's not a big deal. Pop it down, pop it up.
There was all of this when seatbelts were made compulsory but I bet you that 99 times out of 100 you don't even think about it now.
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, there is no need to take your seatbelt off and on during the course of a car journey.
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious that's untrue. Pop out to the shops and you're frequently taking it on and off.
Just belt up.
A little mask wearing for the ending of genuine restrictions is a very, very, small price to pay. Asia gets it. Only blockheaded Brits, of whom there are still some, don't.
First off you should be walking to the shops. Second of all, what about Ocado? And thirdly, I said "during the course of a car journey".
The third is petty, as you know full well.
The second would be impossible as no food delivery service would come to me.
Because the first would be tricky. Although I walk about 5 miles every day I live 22 miles from the nearest shop.
#Metropolitan_elitist
Why is the third petty? While you are in the car going to the shops you don't take your seatbelt on and off. You do once you have arrived and have finished that journey.
And, O Great Writer, your use of "pop" threw me off. Unless you are in the US (which of course you might be) where, as it was described to me by a friend, people think nothing of getting into their car and driving five hours for a taco.
On topic, I guess this hinges on what your definition of "lockdown" means? Some seem to think it applies for as long as maskwearing, social distancing and a rule of 6 apply.
My definition is it ends when you're told you no longer must "stay at home", and can travel for social, domestic and leisure purposes as well as business ones.
Looking at the Mail definitions in the thread header that looks like either April or May to me, and not as late as July.
Yep.
The mystery of India is continuing to cause head scratching amongst scientists. One theory is that mask wearing is responsible.
There's obviously by now lots of evidence that a good mask prevents a lot of airborne virus transmission as well as the more obvious droplet one.
I mention this because the Gov't could sell this pretty strongly: put up with mask wearing for a while in indoor public venues as the price we pay for ending of almost all other restrictions.
If that was the offer almost everyone in the country would take it. Except Laurence Fox, obvs.
That is an interesting thought. I would love to know what people who have to wear masks nearly all the time think. Did they just get used to them? I do not like wearing them, but it doesn't cause me any issues because I appreciate the benefits of doing so and I am fortunate that I don't have to do it very much. Bars and restaurants are obviously impossible and a packed bar must be a top spreading environment. I can't see it working at a pop concert either.
"Asia" wore them for years for no good reason. Now there is a reason. Was their years and years of wearing masks justified because eventually along came a global pandemic?
Have you ever tasted the smog in Beijing. Or Bangkok on a bad day?
On topic, I guess this hinges on what your definition of "lockdown" means? Some seem to think it applies for as long as maskwearing, social distancing and a rule of 6 apply.
My definition is it ends when you're told you no longer must "stay at home", and can travel for social, domestic and leisure purposes as well as business ones.
Looking at the Mail definitions in the thread header that looks like either April or May to me, and not as late as July.
Yep.
The mystery of India is continuing to cause head scratching amongst scientists. One theory is that mask wearing is responsible.
There's obviously by now lots of evidence that a good mask prevents a lot of airborne virus transmission as well as the more obvious droplet one.
I mention this because the Gov't could sell this pretty strongly: put up with mask wearing for a while in indoor public venues as the price we pay for ending of almost all other restrictions.
If that was the offer almost everyone in the country would take it. Except Laurence Fox, obvs.
That is an interesting thought. I would love to know what people who have to wear masks nearly all the time think. Did they just get used to them? I do not like wearing them, but it doesn't cause me any issues because I appreciate the benefits of doing so and I am fortunate that I don't have to do it very much. Bars and restaurants are obviously impossible and a packed bar must be a top spreading environment. I can't see it working at a pop concert either.
I've lived in Asia and used to wear one out there. I honestly barely notice I'm wearing it now. It's just like putting on knickers, a blouse or a dress. Well, okay, that's a slight exaggeration but it's not a particularly big deal for me anymore.
I meant to say 'aerosol' transmission in my earlier post rather than merely airborne.
I think we'll get to the point when they're not really necessary but they should probably be the last thing to be dropped. It's a very small price to pay if all other restrictions are lifted.
Question for Internet experts: is there any kind of Nigel Farage blocking software that can be used with YouTube?
I am very happy for him that he has finally found his niche as a high-tech door-to-door salesman. But I don't want to see or hear him.
Question for any social media experts: I have a burning need to virtue signal my disdain for a political figure but posting on a political website is no longer doing it for me: do you have any further suggestions?
Also anything that would cover morons like DavidL, please!
Hit home much?
Extend that also to people who think of archaic teenage Californiaisms as witty ripostes ...
Best wishes @Casino_Royale. I share the same symptoms and thoughts at the moment so I know what it's like and don't blame you whatsoever for pushing the boundaries.
An NHS boss today calling for continued restrictions until NHS capacity is under control.
According to NHS bosses has NHS capacity been under control at any time in the past 40 years?
@MarqueeMark good post but do you see now how easy it would be for the government to "follow the science" and keep us locked down until further notice (I exaggerate, but only slightly).
Every winter bed occupancy in the NHS is normally above 100%.
At the hospital where my wife works the situation is returning to what it was like last summer. Shifts are being cancelled, wards are empty and bank (overtime) work is being stopped.
In Leicester we still have over 300 covid inpatients, 50+ on ICU which is running at 150% capacity. This is more than the first wave peak. We have Consultants working as ICU nurses because it is so stretched. I think this will be the case for another month. It is a slow recovery even for those who make it.
I do think some relaxations are needed, despite all this though.
Yes but are those Covid patients crowding out other patients as we are being told?
Of course. If the anaesthetists and theatre staff are working in surge ICU, they are not doing operating lists. Similarly if the orthopedic ward is full of respiratory covid then there is no space to do hips etc.
So my point is, as per also @NerysHughes' post - if the NHS is always at or above 100% capacity for one reason or another, Covid or not, then Chris Hopson's requirements for easing restrictions will never be met.
Now I would of course be the last person to say this might happen but what if someone was a politically-minded NHS chief whose (laudable) aim was to get the govt to spend more money on the NHS. What better way for them to force this than to threaten the whole country with lockdown until the govt, er, coughs up?
I think that NHS Chief would be very unwise, and if they can't play nicely during a pandemic catastrophe they should be shown the door immediately.
I've been suffering from a mild depression for the first time in my life in recent weeks.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
Stay with it. And PB is a great outlet for some of those feelings. We all get it on here. You fucker.
Also, very sadly no one can wave a magic wand and make it "ok" but, and it's just my experience, exercise can be such a solver of so many problems. There is the chemical/endorphin element, and there is also the getting active one, plus exercise is "good for you" so you finish and you feel some kind of sense of achievement.
Of course it's circular - feel down, can't be bothered to do anything including exercise. Hence my view (in good times and bad) that for it to be viable, exercise has to be part of your daily routine, not "an event". So schedule it in, enlist your wife so that at XX o'clock it's your exercise time.
Start off with some reps - push-ups, sit-ups, plank, have you any free weights - nothing too dramatic 15-20 mins is fine. Then see how that goes.
No idea on the finances or availability but an exercise bike or running machine while the weather's shit. Or as I said yesterday, a VR headset. Can have plenty of fun and exercise with that.
But routine is the key.
Good luck and best wishes.
I agree exercise is important, retain self-esteem best you can. I really need the gym to open though. Gyms opened slowly after the first lockdown but immediately after the second so who knows this time? If we go back to Tier system then immediately, I assume?
Comments
So, it appears that the COVID work is reducing in hospitals. Good.
But normal working is delayed. worries about COVID transmission to patients?
What about vaccinating those in the back log of patients, and doing a push (and I mean more of shove) among NHS staff? Make hospitals COVID... safer?
I understood that when we come out it will be back into the tier system - is that how you understand it?
Secondly, you appear to be suggesting that foreign travelers will be permitted to travel into the country but UK citizens will be barred from travelling out.
(Although that might cause you permanent liver damage, which would be counterproductive.)
I'd expect all of Europe to be pretty open by the summer, it was last summer after all and cases were generally <20 per 100k. Even if their vaccination programme is 3 months behind, as long as they have it done before October/November the differences won't be as big as people on here expect, unless covid is somehow less seasonal this year.
I saw a claim that a company, when installing wind turbines, had offered the heating kit to protect against freezing ($5K per turbine), but it hadn't been taken up.
But its OK, Imperial have predicted a summer surge greater than the 1st peak.
Spare me.
https://twitter.com/marknorm/status/1361717585579040769
But you get points for at least TRYING to make everything about Brexit.
Even Texas.
*titter*
So for example, the four mile long Pye Green Road probably has only about 1000 people living in it. Therefore, it never gets very crowded.
I’m guessing the whole population of the Cannock Urban Area (which sprawls over about 20 square miles) could be crammed within 200mx200m in Manhattan.
https://twitter.com/ParkerCiccone/status/1361917818665644032
What would it take to fix the waiting area crowding issue? Temporary buildings?
Now I would of course be the last person to say this might happen but what if someone was a politically-minded NHS chief whose (laudable) aim was to get the govt to spend more money on the NHS. What better way for them to force this than to threaten the whole country with lockdown until the govt, er, coughs up?
As an active u3a member, who belongs to several interest groups, I think I'd find masks difficult; I've got a couple of Groups meeting remotely on Friday; I'll ask for opinions.
Finally, while I can imagine wearing a mask while watching sport, the big risk areas would be buying a drink, whether before at half-time at football or during a quiet passage of play at cricket. The bars can be absolutely rammed.
On foreign travel, the ban will stay as the last Covid measure to go. Even then, when lifted, the message will continue to be exercise caution: if you lose your money, there'll be no compensation from the Government. If we are first out of lockdowns, that still means you risk spending 14 days in quarantine when you arrive at a place that is still way behind us.
So this year, give Scotland a try instead. You'll love it.
The Daily Mail and Telegraph have been constantly whining about lockdown restrictions but they've been out of kilter with public opinion.
Most of us get it that this needs to be the final lockdown and that we will ease out of it slowly. Impatience will eventually give way to happiness.
Nothing more to say. No need to moan.
When it rained, I would take a drink and sit on the flat roof of the house, watching huge chunks of the city flashing like disco lights and then going out. Nothing was water proof. If they ever get a proper torrential storm...
That’s patently ridiculous.
And even then, the contract tracing element accounted for 0.05.
Not that the cricket those two sides play right now is much cop, mind.
As to which is right, we'll have to see.
This is *already* happening in my street, where I've seen an extra car overnight that then disappears about 8am the next day.
Do I say anything about it? Absolutely not. I'm not a curtain twitcher, it's not my business, people are really suffering with isolation, so I have a strong degree of sympathy, and I agree the risk is very low.
I might even do some of it myself.
Beautiful place.
Good morning, everybody.
My definition is it ends when you're told you no longer must "stay at home", and can travel for social, domestic and leisure purposes as well as business ones.
Looking at the Mail definitions in the thread header that looks like either April or May to me, and not as late as July.
When the number of Covid hospitalisations decreases then there will be very few reasons to maintain restrictions. As Matt Hancock said, at that point we will live with this like we do the flu.
And again to use the flu analogy (only analogy - Covid is not the flu); we have thousands of people dying each year of it. The government and the hospitals live with that (albeit with complaining as per The Graun every year for the past 20 years) and so must we.
The mystery of India is continuing to cause head scratching amongst scientists. One theory is that mask wearing is responsible.
There's obviously by now lots of evidence that a good mask prevents a lot of airborne virus transmission as well as the more obvious droplet one.
I mention this because the Gov't could sell this pretty strongly: put up with mask wearing for a while in indoor public venues as the price we pay for ending of almost all other restrictions.
If that was the offer almost everyone in the country would take it. Except Laurence Fox, obvs.
Monday is the big one. This must be the last lockdown. The Plan has to set out hope but be balanced with prudence and reality. We are making good progress but we still have a way to go with vaccinations.
There was all of this when seatbelts were made compulsory but I bet you that 99 times out of 100 you don't even think about it now.
Every time nanny rushes over to prevent little Timmy from eating worms in Kensington Gardens is weakening us nationally.
BMI > 40 is used here for the flu jab so I imagine that takes one into cat 6 JCVI.
So before the next General Election there's likely to be another potential pandemic. What lessons will we learn from this one? Will we under or overreact?
Best lesson to draw is probably to get the masks back out immediately. Minimal restriction, decent precautionary measure.
Just belt up.
A little mask wearing for the ending of genuine restrictions is a very, very, small price to pay. Asia gets it. Only blockheaded Brits, of whom there are still some, don't.
Now this might be a good thing, maybe a sign that Allegra and NutNuts are reigning in Johnson's previously over-enthusiastic bragging and previously chaotic communications.
How do I know it's a depression?
Well, I don't know. I'm not an expert. But my symptoms match what I understand are common ones online.
I'm tired in the morning. I'm tired during the day. I'm tired in the evening. I don't sleep well at night.
I am listless during the day. I stare and drift. I can't focus. I struggle to read books or even newspaper articles - they are too big and long and take too much effort - I go off Netflix and Amazon series almost immediately. I don't want to leave the house. I feel better when I leave the house. I don't want to talk to people outside the house. I feel better if I do see a smile outside the house.
I'm aggressive and frustrated. I want to start fights. On social media and even with my wife. I immediately regret it when I do and feel victimised when they strike back, as they do. A lingering comment can stay with me for weeks. Which puts me off talking to people at all.
The only way I get work done is through immense self-discipline and short bursts of productivity at times when I have no choice, and I absolutely must. I just about do it. I put on a "game face" on for meetings - but I've even dodged a few of those. My tolerance for work colleagues I don't quite click with or who annoy me is virtually zero. And I don't care.
So this lockdown is really really shit. Everyone I've spoken to feels the same. I don't know how many feel how I feel, but I suspect it's undercounted.
It would make all the difference to see close friends and family, and go into work once a week in London (couldn't give tuppence for all the rest really) and get away on holiday with my family, where we can play and eat and have fun. Because that's living. And this is no life.
I'm pushing the boundaries of these rules as far as I can (and some) and feel I have no alternative if I am to maintain some basic level of sanity. Sorry.
The second would be impossible as no food delivery service would come to me.
Because the first would be tricky. Although I walk about 5 miles every day I live 22 miles from the nearest shop.
#Metropolitan_elitist
Mr. Royale, if you can, try and exercise regularly. It can help with mild depression.
Do you write for the Daily Mail?
600 people a day are still dying, infected before they could be vaccinated. Possibly over ten thousand peoples deaths are yet to be confirmed, infected before they could be vaccinated.
Striking a humble tone over getting this done right is probably best until the deaths stop.
I believe you are right: most everyone I know feels similarly. It's bloody, bloody, hard.
What I would say is that we are coming out of the tunnel. Try to hold on for a little longer and if that means you bend the rules in the meantime, you're certainly not going to face criticism from me. Whilst I broadly support current Gov't measures, there has to be latitude for anyone at the end of their coping mechanisms.
That's also why this has to be the Final Lockdown. No one will follow another one.
Stay strong. Stay safe.
Also, very sadly no one can wave a magic wand and make it "ok" but, and it's just my experience, exercise can be such a solver of so many problems. There is the chemical/endorphin element, and there is also the getting active one, plus exercise is "good for you" so you finish and you feel some kind of sense of achievement.
Of course it's circular - feel down, can't be bothered to do anything including exercise. Hence my view (in good times and bad) that for it to be viable, exercise has to be part of your daily routine, not "an event". So schedule it in, enlist your wife so that at XX o'clock it's your exercise time.
Start off with some reps - push-ups, sit-ups, plank, have you any free weights - nothing too dramatic 15-20 mins is fine. Then see how that goes.
No idea on the finances or availability but an exercise bike or running machine while the weather's shit. Or as I said yesterday, a VR headset. Can have plenty of fun and exercise with that.
But routine is the key.
Good luck and best wishes.
Seriously though, given the sums involved, a very generous isolation payment combined with e.g. a compulsory (to claim the money) ankle bracelet tracker, might indeed have been a better use of the money.
This is the project undermining the fabric of our society.
https://twitter.com/ColonialCountr1
(Seriously, it looks an interesting project. Well done the National Trust for going outside its comfort zone)
See: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/14/ministers-must-never-free-impose-crippling-restrictions-without/
This lockdown has also coincided with the darkest months of the year. No doubt many people are being triggered by SAD this time around. Get yourself a SAD light box. I know friends who, even before this year, swear by them.
And, O Great Writer, your use of "pop" threw me off. Unless you are in the US (which of course you might be) where, as it was described to me by a friend, people think nothing of getting into their car and driving five hours for a taco.
I meant to say 'aerosol' transmission in my earlier post rather than merely airborne.
I think we'll get to the point when they're not really necessary but they should probably be the last thing to be dropped. It's a very small price to pay if all other restrictions are lifted.