The astronomical definition of summer is June 21 to September 20.
The Met Office uses 1 June to 31 August for statistical convenience.
The thermal summer (i.e. the warmest three months of the year) is approx 10 June to 10 September.
Google says 1st June - 22nd September.
Then Google is wrong on all counts.
That meets no known definition of the season.
Edit: My Google says 21 June to 22 Sep (which is correct)
Aargh sorry yes 21 June to 22 Sep.
So what's all this 1st June to 31 August nonsense?
The Met Office uses that definition (in this country), for statistical convenience (it's three clear months) so some people insist it's set in stone.
However, the seasons are set by the cosmos, not civil servants, so Google is right on this one, in terms of the astronomical summer.
It might be better, as @Gaussian says, to agree on a definition of 11th - 10th for the seasons, as these would match the actual thermal seasons, and would be a perfect compromise. But that would have the dual effect of angering both government meteorologists and astronomers, ergo will never happen.
On average temperature of 1 June > 21 Sept
Indeed. The thermal season is (approx) 10 Jun to 10 Sep with, as you say, early June being warmer than late September.
Does anyone know why golf courses and outdoor swimming pools are closed?
Any sort of pool could be a vector perhaps ? How many outdoor pools are there here really ? Golf as singles or within your bubble (My Mum and Dad play together) no idea.
Depends what you count - perhaps a couple of hundred formal setups?
Had my AZ jab nearly a week ago. Side effects set in after about 16 hours, high temp for about 18 hours, still under the weather now.
You sure that's just the jab? Sounds quite extreme if so. Worth a test?
It's all in the data sheet. Apparently experienced by about 1 in 10 people. Also, I spoke to GP about nausea (also in data sheet) yesterday because I'd have liked some anti-nausea medication. We went through everything and GP has no worries.
But thanks anyway.
Earlier on this thread, someone commented that anecdotally, younger people seem to be getting stronger reactions. That sounds good to me; I'm early 70s!
Makes sense. If I understand correctly, the reaction is an immune response, and younger people have (as we have all learned this past year) generally stronger immune systems.
Does anyone know why golf courses and outdoor swimming pools are closed?
There seems to be almost no rational basis for golf courses (assuming the club house is closed) other than fears of "It's alright for them privileged fuckers to knock a ball about, but when me and my 28 mates want to hang around in the park...it's the police for us. One law for the rich, innit?"
No, no, it *is* for health reasons. Some stupid bastard getting glassed for poncing round a golf course wearing daft trousers still needs medical attention....
One thing that's emerging from today's revelatory discussion on here is the extent to which 'normal' life clearly plays a key part in supporting good mental health.
Just the tick tock of everyday hussle and bussle. The crowded trains. The traffic jams. The bants at work. Thursday night in the pub. Sport at the week-end. Going to the theatre. Getting caught in the rain.
Reading it now, its stating the obvious, but even so.
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
No. Watching the daily positive cases coming down is one of the only things that gives me optimism and hope.
Deaths and hospitalisations are what actually matter.
Well not quite. Until a vast majority of our population is vaccinated higher cases still leads to higher hospitalisations and higher deaths. They are all linked.
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
But the issue is that the scientists are moving the goalposts. Rishi was right, we were sold this lockdown as a way to protect the NHS from collapse. Now we're being told it's a way to get cases down. How long until that becomes getting cases to zero before we're allowed out of it?
No. The line must be kept at ensuring the NHS doesn't collapse, we're on the way to achieving that in a lasting way by ensuring all people at risk of ending up on hospital from this will be immunised by the end of April (in reality probably the end of March) and all adults by August (more likely June). The idea that once this is achieved we should stay in lockdown because cases are high is simply unacceptable and the scientists are moving the goalposts. We can't have rule by SAGE, no one voted for them.
We won't have rule by SAGE any more than we had rule by Cummings. The PM/ministers will listen to advisers, but they make the call and they are held to account for it.
The scientists (in the virology/public health/epidemiology areas) will advise on what's best for their area of expertise. The virologists and epidemiologists might well push for crushing cases to reduce chances of further damaging mutations (although, realistically, they are more likely to come from countries with few vaccinations and largely beyond our control other than border closing). The public health scientists should take a wider view on e.g. mental health, getting other health services back to full capacity. There should also be economists advising, who will likely push to open as much as possible as soon as possible.
Having said that, I agree that getting everyone* vaccinated (plus two-three weeks) should be a pretty clear end point. After that, things are as good as they're going to get, unless the NHS is on point of collapse there's no holding on a bit longer for things to get better, as they won't (they should be pretty good by then). The only justification for going longer would be a new vaccine-dodging strain that puts a lot of people in hospital or kills them (i.e. the already used vaccines don't prevent even severe illness) and a new vaccine for that very close. In that scenario, restrictions would still be to prevent NHS collapse, but we should not get into that situation.
* or indeed just the vulnerable for at least most restrictions
As we are constantly being told, the public is hugely in favour of continued lockdown. So why on earth wouldn't Boris continue to say "we are following the science" and maintain the lockdown until we have a "robust and effective strategy to identify new variants"?
= continued popularity = continued governing = trebles all round.
Current polling maybe. Try polling on a scenario in which we're in July, deaths are in double figures or lower. People hate lockdown, but at present they think it's justified. They won't think that when it isn't.
Also, I was unfair on the epidemiologists/virologists above. They didn't call for a lockdown very early in the pandemic, which is what you would do if only bothered about cases and damn everything else - didn't SAGE recommend it about two weeks or so before it actually happened? There's not a lot of evidence that even SAGE are lockdown-happy.
We shall see.
But it is entirely possible that Chris Whitty, Chris Hopson et al will agitate against opening up "just in case". And they will do so standing alongside the Prime Minister broadcasting live to the country at 5pm in front of the Union Jack.
Plenty of people will imo take what they say as "the science" and to be followed.
Yup, and there's always going to be a "just in case" reason for these types, it could be mutations, it could be the unvaccinated BAME people being put at risk, it could be too many cases or the NHS not being able to cope with new non-COVID issues. It's like you said, they've been handed this all powerful policy tool to conquer death and for public health types that's their primary concern.
Isn't it just about impossible to get positive tests at less than 1000 a day? My understanding (and I can't remember where from) is that false positivity rate is around 0.5%. If Covid doesn't exist, but we are doing 300,000 tests a day, we'll still be getting 1,500 positives a day. And of those 1,500, you will always get a handful then dying in the next 28 days. Therefore, deaths will never be zero. If anyone can disabuse me of this I'd be very grateful - otherwise I can't see a route out of lockdown ever.
That false positive rate is not 0.5%.
The ONS estimate puts the absolute upper bound of false positives to be 0.08%
That is assuming every single positive from its test sample of ~200k were positive.
Literally zero acutal positive cases, every single one a false positive.
For 800,000 daily tests then 0.08% still equals 640 potentially doesn't it?
Correct but 0.08% is not the actual false positive rate. It is the absolute ceiling on false positives.
Tbh, it's not false positives that are the problem. It's asymptomatic and mild cases among people who have been vaccinated. There is almost guaranteed to be more tha 1k per day in that category with the amount of testing we're doing. That's why it feels like a really dishonest moving of the goal posts.
It's a problem to have 10k per day getting infected when 1k of those end up in hospital, it's not a problem to have 10x as many per day getting infected when only 10 of them end up in hospital. The people who are proposing moving to cases know this as well but they really do seem fixated on keeping people locked up forever. It's up to the politicians to be brave and open up against that advice because lockdown forever isn't a solution to any problem.
Yep, 'true-but-irrelevant' positives could be an issue with the mainstream testing (or at least, comparing numbers now to numbers last summer for example). Shouldn't be for the ONS surveillance studies though.
'Irrelevant' of course depending on the context - they're relevant to telling whether someone is infected, but not - hopefully, any more - so relevant as a leading indicator of hospitalisations and deaths and the need to lock down.
Yeah and this is why it's so alarming to have scientists and other public health people try to link lockdown easing to case numbers. It feels completely dishonest and I don't blame the Chancellor for blowing up at them recently if this is the reason.
Surely the ONS study will suffer from it too unless they're asking people to list any symptoms they have when filling in the survey. If they are then it actually could be a treasure trove of data for the whole world.
Finally you realise. Finally.
There are people out there, powerful people, who will link the easing of lockdown to anything whatever that keeps us in lockdown.
Why would they do that?
Ooh me sir me sir.
Here's a couple off the top of my head.
1. NHS bods dictating policy atm want $$$ for the NHS. Historically no one has given them this (or enough of this). NHS bods dictating policy link ending lockdown to the receipt of $$$ for the NHS. How much $$$? Sky's the limit.
2. Tough lockdown strategy popular in the polls. "Following the science" popular in the polls. Boris continuing lockdown and "following the science" = Boris riding high in the polls.
The medical profession has been trying to control us for decades. All those surveys on what you should or shouldn't eat/do etc. which were patently ignored by ordinary people,.
Finally, finally, they have traction. They have leverage. They have power.
It's a testament to your commitment to your username that, on the first day in ages when you long-expressed views sort of make sense at last, that you have upped the ante to this level in a desperate bid to ensure that nobody can possibly agree with you on it.
Quite why the medical profession should be so invested in making sure that, for example, your meals are bland and unenjoyable, is completely beyond me.
$$$
I don't think they want to control our minds. But they sure as hell want more money.
Well, more charitably I would say that fewer clinically obese patients suffering from heart conditions means more NHS funds available to treat other conditions (in simple terms, so ignoring the short term vs long term cost benefit analysis).
But all that does is raise the question of how they expect to continue receiving more and more money if they won't allow the economy that pays their wages to open up again?
Well money hasn't been a problem to date. And you answer the question yourself re fatties. And they brought down the official "safe" drinking limit recently.
CMO: "The only way we are going to be able to function is if we have an increase in $$$ so that we can handle new variants/new diseases/the backlog in "normal" cases/fatties/adventure sportsmen/mountaineers/rock climbers/steeplechase jockeys/rally drivers/@Dura_Ace /circus highwire performers/etc. Until we get that money, sadly we won't be able to agree to open up society."
Is not out of the question.
Sure, that makes some sense as a position. I'm not concerned about it, because it's a terrible argument to put to the cabinet without a whole lot more leverage than they actually have. The response is obvious: we can't give you the money unless we open up society, so you'll have to pick your poison.
Oh and by the way we're going to ignore you either way because it's become politically unviable to keep society locked up any longer.
PS I do find it amusing that you chose to tag (rather than just reference) Dura_Ace in a post that has literally nothing to do with him.
Yebbut is it? Look at the polls, as are frequently quoted on here. Public hugely in favour of lockdown. So take away their furlough - can you see BoJo doing that? Not a chance.
And as for your PS I don't see a difference in tagging or referring. What is the difference/amusing bit? Does he get a credit?
1) Those polls are going to change, drastically, once the death rate drops down into double digit per day levels and stays there.
2) He gets a message via Vanilla if you tag him. Not a huge deal, but amused me. If you click your name on one of your posts you get taken to your "homepage" which shows you your system messages (among other things).
Oh. I didn't know that. Is that the globe with the red number at the top of the page (I'm on vanilla)? Mine says 30 - I've never looked at it.
"Bill Gates has called on the U.S. and other wealthy countries to give up eating beef entirely and switch to synthetic alternatives due to climate change.
'I don’t think the poorest 80 countries will be eating synthetic meat. I do think all rich countries should move to 100% synthetic beef,' Gates the MIT Technology Review in an interview on Monday.
'You can get used to the taste difference, and the claim is they’re going to make it taste even better over time. Eventually, that green premium is modest enough that you can sort of change the people or use regulation to totally shift the demand,' Gates mused."
I don't think there is a convincing case for that yet.
There are variations in C02 production by beef systems of several times, so clearly a lot of optimisation is possible.
eg Carbon Footprint of UK Beef is far less than half of the global average.
Established pastureland is an effective carbon sink but only remains so from regular grazing and fertilisation from grazers. Sure, we could requisition all pasture land and stick some wild bison on it but it’s unclear why this would be superior to letting “pasture for life” cattle graze it instead, which can be slaughtered and sold, so the proceeds can be used to pay for the management of the land.
Gates has long had no clue on global warming. I get the sense he’s trying his best to learn but has a long way to go.
There are also all kinds of interesting experiments happening.
One involves seaweed mixed into the fed, for example.
Demographically I'm probably supposed to be one of the people most affected by lockdown (young, insecure work, living in a box room in London) but I've actually not found it too bad. I like having the freedom to space my work throughout the day. I'm saving a lot of money because I don't have to commute, get my suit dry cleaned, or eat meals at work. Pre pandemic my job also involved a lot of after-work socialising at pubs, which in hindsight was pretty unhealthy; staying at home means I don't get pressured into drinking, and gives me a lot more freedom to cook cheap and healthy meals whenever I want. Obviously this is not typical and I completely understand how difficult lockdown has been for lots of people, but wanted to share my experience.
That's great to hear. Horses for courses. It's great that you feel as you do. Don't fgs feel guilty about it. Use your strength to help others.
Yes, that's right. I feel as Bournville does, for all the reasons he cites, bur it's horribly depressing for loads of people and Government policy needs to takes account of them. There was a tendency in Lockdown 1 for people to divide into rival camps and deride each other, but the reality is that, like the disease itself, it's affecting people differently and overall it's grim.
I think today has been a real eye-opener on here.
Well done to @Casino_Royale because his post has allowed or encouraged others to follow suit.
I haven't crunched the numbers but a very non-trivial proportion of regular PB contributors seem to be thus affected.
If we are, and we are supposed to be a thinking, analytic, data-driven, intellectual bunch then what on earth is it like "out there"?
I'll be honest - I think I am almost immune the black dog (almost - on occasion its crept to the fireside, but usually as soon as I see it I bounce back). But even for me this period is dragging now. I didn't mind in jan - the post Christmas month is always a quiet one in our household. But now I am starting to chafe. I am missing the simple things - regular coffee with my work colleague where we talk utter rubbish. I am missing seeing my parents other than outside on a walk. I'm missing popping to the best curry house for many miles (Toran, on the A36 if you fancy it when this is over - used to be a little chef). I'm missing going to a game of footy (though not that much as my teams are truly awful this year. I strongly dislike masks, and stupid one way routes at work, even though work has around 20 people in the building as opposed to hundreds.
I'm happy to keep going, but this is hard for some and very hard for others. I don;t want to lift things too early and end up going backwards and I think the hospitals is going to be the key. Some will be quietly emptying again and we should rejoice at that. Some (like Foxy's) are still way over capacity, and its going to take a long time to get more normal. My biggest fear is that the government has swung too far on the caution side now, after being burned and criticised so heavily in the past. Cases will at some point decouple from admissions and deaths, and those in power will need to adjust. I hope they can. I doubt that (most) of the media will...
That's the architect of the Texas Electricity generation market there saying everything is going grand.
When the last bit of dry land on the planet is being lapped by ocean waves because the ice caps have melted the fundamentalists will still be insisting "the market is functioning perfectly, as land has become more scarce the price has risen forcing consumers to gurgle gurgle.... "
Slightly eccentric view: seasons start one month prior to the equinox/solstice, and continue until two months after. Eg Spring is from 21 February to 21 May. If you prefer the slightly more conventional whole months, just move everything 10-11 days back, so 1 March to 1 June.
The idea that mid September is more Summer than mid June is absolute madness.
It is both colder and shorter days in September than June. How is that more summer?
Dare I suggest that the four seasons don't need to be of roughly equal length?
I'd suggest: Summer late May to early Sept Autumn Mid Sept to mid Nov Winter late Nov to Feb Spring March to early May
Things start sucking on November 1, without fail. They cease to suck when spring comes, and that for practical purposes varies. It's when it warms up and the grass starts growing, which is sometimes March 1 and sometimes March 20 and sometimes other dates before, between or after those. So any fixed date is merely a guideline and not worth arguing about. Spring is over when the hawthorn blossom is over (end May, usually) and autumn is the period between picking the first and the last apple.
The idea that mid September is more Summer than mid June is absolute madness.
It is both colder and shorter days in September than June. How is that more summer?
Some years we play more test match days in September than we do in June.
I've been to day night ODI matches held on the 25th of September, so it is summer in my eyes if we can play cricket in mid to late September.
There's no reason we can't play cricket in June though.
I'd be happy to narrow autumn to pretty much October. October is the only really autumnal month, start of November too. By end of November trees are already bare and it feels like winter already.
Demographically I'm probably supposed to be one of the people most affected by lockdown (young, insecure work, living in a box room in London) but I've actually not found it too bad. I like having the freedom to space my work throughout the day. I'm saving a lot of money because I don't have to commute, get my suit dry cleaned, or eat meals at work. Pre pandemic my job also involved a lot of after-work socialising at pubs, which in hindsight was pretty unhealthy; staying at home means I don't get pressured into drinking, and gives me a lot more freedom to cook cheap and healthy meals whenever I want. Obviously this is not typical and I completely understand how difficult lockdown has been for lots of people, but wanted to share my experience.
Not typical but neither untypical. It's a mosaic. Like in my world, my wife likes lockdown, I've been fine but it is now getting to me a bit. My son has found it tedious but no biggie. Ditto his girlfriend. My dad has got depressed. My mum the opposite - she's been energized oddly. My mates have been ok. My siblings all work at the sharp end of health and education and so have been mega pressurized but have got a kick from the challenge and sense of doing something important. My goldfish seems utterly unaffected. It's as if it doesn't even know there's a pandemic on.
It's not one to carp, then ? (Sorry, couldn't resist.)
Monday provisionally looks like a 17% WoW drop for England. That varies from a 42% provisional drop in London vs a provisional 9% rise in Yorkshire and the Humber according to the case predictor algorithm.
My guess is that some areas are now seeing the majority of their cases come from the Kent variant and there has been a reduction in lockdown adherence which is resulting in an R of just over 1 because there isn't a lot of prior infection immunity like there is in London, SE and East which had a huge explosion in cases from November to January.
The idea that mid September is more Summer than mid June is absolute madness.
It is both colder and shorter days in September than June. How is that more summer?
Some years we play more test match days in September than we do in June.
I've been to day night ODI matches held on the 25th of September, so it is summer in my eyes if we can play cricket in mid to late September.
But on that argument the whole of May and some of April is 'summer'...
We seldom play ODIs and test matches in April.
So only international cricket counts? Not the school stuff with some hapless teacher roped in to umpire the U13Cs on a day where the wind is coming straight from the Urals...
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
No. Watching the daily positive cases coming down is one of the only things that gives me optimism and hope.
Deaths and hospitalisations are what actually matter.
Well not quite. Until a vast majority of our population is vaccinated higher cases still leads to higher hospitalisations and higher deaths. They are all linked.
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
But the issue is that the scientists are moving the goalposts. Rishi was right, we were sold this lockdown as a way to protect the NHS from collapse. Now we're being told it's a way to get cases down. How long until that becomes getting cases to zero before we're allowed out of it?
No. The line must be kept at ensuring the NHS doesn't collapse, we're on the way to achieving that in a lasting way by ensuring all people at risk of ending up on hospital from this will be immunised by the end of April (in reality probably the end of March) and all adults by August (more likely June). The idea that once this is achieved we should stay in lockdown because cases are high is simply unacceptable and the scientists are moving the goalposts. We can't have rule by SAGE, no one voted for them.
We won't have rule by SAGE any more than we had rule by Cummings. The PM/ministers will listen to advisers, but they make the call and they are held to account for it.
The scientists (in the virology/public health/epidemiology areas) will advise on what's best for their area of expertise. The virologists and epidemiologists might well push for crushing cases to reduce chances of further damaging mutations (although, realistically, they are more likely to come from countries with few vaccinations and largely beyond our control other than border closing). The public health scientists should take a wider view on e.g. mental health, getting other health services back to full capacity. There should also be economists advising, who will likely push to open as much as possible as soon as possible.
Having said that, I agree that getting everyone* vaccinated (plus two-three weeks) should be a pretty clear end point. After that, things are as good as they're going to get, unless the NHS is on point of collapse there's no holding on a bit longer for things to get better, as they won't (they should be pretty good by then). The only justification for going longer would be a new vaccine-dodging strain that puts a lot of people in hospital or kills them (i.e. the already used vaccines don't prevent even severe illness) and a new vaccine for that very close. In that scenario, restrictions would still be to prevent NHS collapse, but we should not get into that situation.
* or indeed just the vulnerable for at least most restrictions
As we are constantly being told, the public is hugely in favour of continued lockdown. So why on earth wouldn't Boris continue to say "we are following the science" and maintain the lockdown until we have a "robust and effective strategy to identify new variants"?
= continued popularity = continued governing = trebles all round.
Current polling maybe. Try polling on a scenario in which we're in July, deaths are in double figures or lower. People hate lockdown, but at present they think it's justified. They won't think that when it isn't.
Also, I was unfair on the epidemiologists/virologists above. They didn't call for a lockdown very early in the pandemic, which is what you would do if only bothered about cases and damn everything else - didn't SAGE recommend it about two weeks or so before it actually happened? There's not a lot of evidence that even SAGE are lockdown-happy.
We shall see.
But it is entirely possible that Chris Whitty, Chris Hopson et al will agitate against opening up "just in case". And they will do so standing alongside the Prime Minister broadcasting live to the country at 5pm in front of the Union Jack.
Plenty of people will imo take what they say as "the science" and to be followed.
Yup, and there's always going to be a "just in case" reason for these types, it could be mutations, it could be the unvaccinated BAME people being put at risk, it could be too many cases or the NHS not being able to cope with new non-COVID issues. It's like you said, they've been handed this all powerful policy tool to conquer death and for public health types that's their primary concern.
Isn't it just about impossible to get positive tests at less than 1000 a day? My understanding (and I can't remember where from) is that false positivity rate is around 0.5%. If Covid doesn't exist, but we are doing 300,000 tests a day, we'll still be getting 1,500 positives a day. And of those 1,500, you will always get a handful then dying in the next 28 days. Therefore, deaths will never be zero. If anyone can disabuse me of this I'd be very grateful - otherwise I can't see a route out of lockdown ever.
That false positive rate is not 0.5%.
The ONS estimate puts the absolute upper bound of false positives to be 0.08%
That is assuming every single positive from its test sample of ~200k were positive.
Literally zero acutal positive cases, every single one a false positive.
For 800,000 daily tests then 0.08% still equals 640 potentially doesn't it?
Correct but 0.08% is not the actual false positive rate. It is the absolute ceiling on false positives.
Tbh, it's not false positives that are the problem. It's asymptomatic and mild cases among people who have been vaccinated. There is almost guaranteed to be more tha 1k per day in that category with the amount of testing we're doing. That's why it feels like a really dishonest moving of the goal posts.
It's a problem to have 10k per day getting infected when 1k of those end up in hospital, it's not a problem to have 10x as many per day getting infected when only 10 of them end up in hospital. The people who are proposing moving to cases know this as well but they really do seem fixated on keeping people locked up forever. It's up to the politicians to be brave and open up against that advice because lockdown forever isn't a solution to any problem.
Yep, 'true-but-irrelevant' positives could be an issue with the mainstream testing (or at least, comparing numbers now to numbers last summer for example). Shouldn't be for the ONS surveillance studies though.
'Irrelevant' of course depending on the context - they're relevant to telling whether someone is infected, but not - hopefully, any more - so relevant as a leading indicator of hospitalisations and deaths and the need to lock down.
Yeah and this is why it's so alarming to have scientists and other public health people try to link lockdown easing to case numbers. It feels completely dishonest and I don't blame the Chancellor for blowing up at them recently if this is the reason.
Surely the ONS study will suffer from it too unless they're asking people to list any symptoms they have when filling in the survey. If they are then it actually could be a treasure trove of data for the whole world.
Finally you realise. Finally.
There are people out there, powerful people, who will link the easing of lockdown to anything whatever that keeps us in lockdown.
Why would they do that?
Ooh me sir me sir.
Here's a couple off the top of my head.
1. NHS bods dictating policy atm want $$$ for the NHS. Historically no one has given them this (or enough of this). NHS bods dictating policy link ending lockdown to the receipt of $$$ for the NHS. How much $$$? Sky's the limit.
2. Tough lockdown strategy popular in the polls. "Following the science" popular in the polls. Boris continuing lockdown and "following the science" = Boris riding high in the polls.
The medical profession has been trying to control us for decades. All those surveys on what you should or shouldn't eat/do etc. which were patently ignored by ordinary people,.
Finally, finally, they have traction. They have leverage. They have power.
It's a testament to your commitment to your username that, on the first day in ages when you long-expressed views sort of make sense at last, that you have upped the ante to this level in a desperate bid to ensure that nobody can possibly agree with you on it.
Quite why the medical profession should be so invested in making sure that, for example, your meals are bland and unenjoyable, is completely beyond me.
$$$
I don't think they want to control our minds. But they sure as hell want more money.
Well, more charitably I would say that fewer clinically obese patients suffering from heart conditions means more NHS funds available to treat other conditions (in simple terms, so ignoring the short term vs long term cost benefit analysis).
But all that does is raise the question of how they expect to continue receiving more and more money if they won't allow the economy that pays their wages to open up again?
Well money hasn't been a problem to date. And you answer the question yourself re fatties. And they brought down the official "safe" drinking limit recently.
CMO: "The only way we are going to be able to function is if we have an increase in $$$ so that we can handle new variants/new diseases/the backlog in "normal" cases/fatties/adventure sportsmen/mountaineers/rock climbers/steeplechase jockeys/rally drivers/@Dura_Ace /circus highwire performers/etc. Until we get that money, sadly we won't be able to agree to open up society."
Is not out of the question.
Sure, that makes some sense as a position. I'm not concerned about it, because it's a terrible argument to put to the cabinet without a whole lot more leverage than they actually have. The response is obvious: we can't give you the money unless we open up society, so you'll have to pick your poison.
Oh and by the way we're going to ignore you either way because it's become politically unviable to keep society locked up any longer.
PS I do find it amusing that you chose to tag (rather than just reference) Dura_Ace in a post that has literally nothing to do with him.
Yebbut is it? Look at the polls, as are frequently quoted on here. Public hugely in favour of lockdown. So take away their furlough - can you see BoJo doing that? Not a chance.
And as for your PS I don't see a difference in tagging or referring. What is the difference/amusing bit? Does he get a credit?
1) Those polls are going to change, drastically, once the death rate drops down into double digit per day levels and stays there.
2) He gets a message via Vanilla if you tag him. Not a huge deal, but amused me. If you click your name on one of your posts you get taken to your "homepage" which shows you your system messages (among other things).
Oh. I didn't know that. Is that the globe with the red number at the top of the page (I'm on vanilla)? Mine says 30 - I've never looked at it.
That's the one. I suspect a lot of people have never noticed! If you get an actual message then it comes via email, somehow.
Does anyone know why golf courses and outdoor swimming pools are closed?
Any sort of pool could be a vector perhaps ? How many outdoor pools are there here really ? Golf as singles or within your bubble (My Mum and Dad play together) no idea.
The two biggest outbreaks in my village were both linked to the golf course. Large groups of people regularly gathered to chat in the car park before and after rounds. With pretty poor social distancing and no masks of course. The golf club has had a poor pandemic. Locking up all the entrances to prevent having anyone exercise there when forced to close, in contrast to the cricket club which chose the exact opposite. Then asking for a marquee (members only natch) from the Community Covid fund. Under questioning from the Parish Council, it was quite clear they regarded "the wider community" and fully paid up members of the golf club to be one and the same thing.
The idea that mid September is more Summer than mid June is absolute madness.
It is both colder and shorter days in September than June. How is that more summer?
Dare I suggest that the four seasons don't need to be of roughly equal length?
I'd suggest: Summer late May to early Sept Autumn Mid Sept to mid Nov Winter late Nov to Feb Spring March to early May
Things start sucking on November 1, without fail. They cease to suck when spring comes, and that for practical purposes varies. It's when it warms up and the grass starts growing, which is sometimes March 1 and sometimes March 20 and sometimes other dates before, between or after those. So any fixed date is merely a guideline and not worth arguing about. Spring is over when the hawthorn blossom is over (end May, usually) and autumn is the period between picking the first and the last apple.
I think Bonfire Night is the final autumnal event.
Does anyone know why golf courses and outdoor swimming pools are closed?
There seems to be almost no rational basis for golf courses (assuming the club house is closed) other than fears of "It's alright for them privileged fuckers to knock a ball about, but when me and my 28 mates want to hang around in the park...it's the police for us. One law for the rich, innit?"
No, no, it *is* for health reasons. Some stupid bastard getting glassed for poncing round a golf course wearing daft trousers still needs medical attention....
To be fair, if somebody still gets glassed whilst holding a 3 wood....they should be wearing daft trousers.
The idea that mid September is more Summer than mid June is absolute madness.
It is both colder and shorter days in September than June. How is that more summer?
Some years we play more test match days in September than we do in June.
I've been to day night ODI matches held on the 25th of September, so it is summer in my eyes if we can play cricket in mid to late September.
But on that argument the whole of May and some of April is 'summer'...
We seldom play ODIs and test matches in April.
So only international cricket counts? Not the school stuff with some hapless teacher roped in to umpire the U13Cs on a day where the wind is coming straight from the Urals...
As a member of both Lancashire and Yorkshire County Cricket Clubs I can say that watching cricket in April doesn't count because it is so cold for the spectators you could cut diamonds with my nipples, ergo it isn't summer.
The devastating consequences of lockdown are starting to become manifest even on a site that has steadfastly and implacably backed them through thick and thin.
I am genuinely very sorry for those who are suffering on here because of the brutal and vicious restrictions imposed upon us by the Johnson regime and those that prop it up.
One way I have found helps is to fund those who are at least trying to fight back. I have donated small amounts to figures who question lockdown and those who promise to ensure these measures imposed on the people of Britain will never be perpetrated again.
"We do not need lockdown to keep Covid under control When cases rise, people change their behaviour. Lockdown has little to do with it. David Paton"
The idea that mid September is more Summer than mid June is absolute madness.
It is both colder and shorter days in September than June. How is that more summer?
Dare I suggest that the four seasons don't need to be of roughly equal length?
I'd suggest: Summer late May to early Sept Autumn Mid Sept to mid Nov Winter late Nov to Feb Spring March to early May
Things start sucking on November 1, without fail. They cease to suck when spring comes, and that for practical purposes varies. It's when it warms up and the grass starts growing, which is sometimes March 1 and sometimes March 20 and sometimes other dates before, between or after those. So any fixed date is merely a guideline and not worth arguing about. Spring is over when the hawthorn blossom is over (end May, usually) and autumn is the period between picking the first and the last apple.
I think Bonfire Night is the final autumnal event.
Demographically I'm probably supposed to be one of the people most affected by lockdown (young, insecure work, living in a box room in London) but I've actually not found it too bad. I like having the freedom to space my work throughout the day. I'm saving a lot of money because I don't have to commute, get my suit dry cleaned, or eat meals at work. Pre pandemic my job also involved a lot of after-work socialising at pubs, which in hindsight was pretty unhealthy; staying at home means I don't get pressured into drinking, and gives me a lot more freedom to cook cheap and healthy meals whenever I want. Obviously this is not typical and I completely understand how difficult lockdown has been for lots of people, but wanted to share my experience.
Not typical but neither untypical. It's a mosaic. Like in my world, my wife likes lockdown, I've been fine but it is now getting to me a bit. My son has found it tedious but no biggie. Ditto his girlfriend. My dad has got depressed. My mum the opposite - she's been energized oddly. My mates have been ok. My siblings all work at the sharp end of health and education and so have been mega pressurized but have got a kick from the challenge and sense of doing something important. My goldfish seems utterly unaffected. It's as if it doesn't even know there's a pandemic on.
It's not one to carp, then ? (Sorry, couldn't resist.)
- Hard to read. Never looks too bowled over about things either way.
That's the architect of the Texas Electricity generation market there saying everything is going grand.
When the last bit of dry land on the planet is being lapped by ocean waves because the ice caps have melted the fundamentalists will still be insisting "the market is functioning perfectly, as land has become more scarce the price has risen forcing consumers to gurgle gurgle.... "
I think waterworld was a tad fictional. There isn't enough water to cover all the land, and its not melting any time soon.
Re seasons: why the assumption that seasons all have to be the same length? I would expect summer in Sicily to go on a bit longer than in Reykjavik for instance.
Yeah mate, that sounds like clinical depression. I've been there and worse, as I have discussed on here. The social phobia is a classic symptom: you just want to hide away, under the duvet. Millions of people are suffering some form of it, right now. A friend of mine (usually chirpy) realised he had it when, every morning, when he woke up, his first thought at realising he was conscious was "Oh no".
Advice? You could try pills, if it gets really bad. They do help, but they have side effects and you don't want to get dependant. But clearly if it deteriorates (esp if you think about self harm) you should consider them.
Other advice? Stephen Fry (who suffers from it badly) puts it quite well: depression is just like the rain, there's nothing you can do, you just wait for it to stop. But it WILL stop, as the rain always stops, in the end.
Interim: force yourself to go outside and exercise in fresh air. Force yourself to phone a friend, see a friend on a walk. Even if it is just 5 minutes, it will help. TELL people you are depressed, admit it, confess it, sometimes just sharing is truly helpful. Unburden yourself.
And maybe try some really tough exercise, like HIIT (you can do it at home). This is so vigorous you get an endorphine boost and a testosterone surge whatever your mood. Do it daily, if possible.
Don't drink TOO much, but don't abstain either, if you find it helps.
Eat really delicious food. Meditate a bit. Listen to music you haven't tried before. Your anhedonia will prevent you from enjoying much of this - life is so beige during depression - but it all helps to move your mind onwards.
Good luck.
Very good post.
Only thing I`ll add, having been thinking about @Casino_Royale `s post all day, is that there is a difference between sadness and depression. I`m concerned that the two are frequently conflated.
I`m desperately sad at the moment, for obvious reasons, but there is no way that I`m depressed. We have had events that have created sadness in our lives piled up and piled up again over the last twelve months. Sadness obviously - but depression? Be sure - and until then I`d be hesitant about medication if I were you - but that is almost certainly what the GP will prescribe if you see him/her.
One thing that's emerging from today's revelatory discussion on here is the extent to which 'normal' life clearly plays a key part in supporting good mental health.
Just the tick tock of everyday hussle and bussle. The crowded trains. The traffic jams. The bants at work. Thursday night in the pub. Sport at the week-end. Going to the theatre. Getting caught in the rain.
Reading it now, its stating the obvious, but even so.
The idea that mid September is more Summer than mid June is absolute madness.
It is both colder and shorter days in September than June. How is that more summer?
Dare I suggest that the four seasons don't need to be of roughly equal length?
I'd suggest: Summer late May to early Sept Autumn Mid Sept to mid Nov Winter late Nov to Feb Spring March to early May
Things start sucking on November 1, without fail. They cease to suck when spring comes, and that for practical purposes varies. It's when it warms up and the grass starts growing, which is sometimes March 1 and sometimes March 20 and sometimes other dates before, between or after those. So any fixed date is merely a guideline and not worth arguing about. Spring is over when the hawthorn blossom is over (end May, usually) and autumn is the period between picking the first and the last apple.
I think Bonfire Night is the final autumnal event.
After that its winter.
The Scots say hello.
What do you mean?
I'd say Bonfire Night is end of autumn, Remembrance Sunday is roughly start of winter.
The devastating consequences of lockdown are starting to become manifest even on a site that has steadfastly and implacably backed them through thick and thin.
I am genuinely very sorry for those who are suffering on here because of the brutal and vicious restrictions imposed upon us by the Johnson regime and those that prop it up.
One way I have found helps is to fund those who are at least trying to fight back. I have donated small amounts to figures who question lockdown and those who promise to ensure these measures imposed on the people of Britain will never be perpetrated again.
"We do not need lockdown to keep Covid under control When cases rise, people change their behaviour. Lockdown has little to do with it. David Paton"
Doubt May would have made a 'joke' involving an abuser and wife murderer in a million years, regardless of her delivery. Different strokes I guess.
Whereas I would normally beat up on Johnson whever I can, his joke was neither side-splittingly
hilarious nor offensive.
Maybe, maybe not, my point was more that May (nor probably any female pol outside the 'I've got balls' wing of the Tory party) wouldn't have cracked it let alone made it even less funny through her delivery.
Demographically I'm probably supposed to be one of the people most affected by lockdown (young, insecure work, living in a box room in London) but I've actually not found it too bad. I like having the freedom to space my work throughout the day. I'm saving a lot of money because I don't have to commute, get my suit dry cleaned, or eat meals at work. Pre pandemic my job also involved a lot of after-work socialising at pubs, which in hindsight was pretty unhealthy; staying at home means I don't get pressured into drinking, and gives me a lot more freedom to cook cheap and healthy meals whenever I want. Obviously this is not typical and I completely understand how difficult lockdown has been for lots of people, but wanted to share my experience.
Not typical but neither untypical. It's a mosaic. Like in my world, my wife likes lockdown, I've been fine but it is now getting to me a bit. My son has found it tedious but no biggie. Ditto his girlfriend. My dad has got depressed. My mum the opposite - she's been energized oddly. My mates have been ok. My siblings all work at the sharp end of health and education and so have been mega pressurized but have got a kick from the challenge and sense of doing something important. My goldfish seems utterly unaffected. It's as if it doesn't even know there's a pandemic on.
It's not one to carp, then ? (Sorry, couldn't resist.)
- Hard to read. Never looks too bowled over about things either way.
The idea that mid September is more Summer than mid June is absolute madness.
It is both colder and shorter days in September than June. How is that more summer?
Dare I suggest that the four seasons don't need to be of roughly equal length?
I'd suggest: Summer late May to early Sept Autumn Mid Sept to mid Nov Winter late Nov to Feb Spring March to early May
Things start sucking on November 1, without fail. They cease to suck when spring comes, and that for practical purposes varies. It's when it warms up and the grass starts growing, which is sometimes March 1 and sometimes March 20 and sometimes other dates before, between or after those. So any fixed date is merely a guideline and not worth arguing about. Spring is over when the hawthorn blossom is over (end May, usually) and autumn is the period between picking the first and the last apple.
Seeing lambs in the field now. Where the hell does that leave us?
The idea that mid September is more Summer than mid June is absolute madness.
It is both colder and shorter days in September than June. How is that more summer?
Dare I suggest that the four seasons don't need to be of roughly equal length?
I'd suggest: Summer late May to early Sept Autumn Mid Sept to mid Nov Winter late Nov to Feb Spring March to early May
Things start sucking on November 1, without fail. They cease to suck when spring comes, and that for practical purposes varies. It's when it warms up and the grass starts growing, which is sometimes March 1 and sometimes March 20 and sometimes other dates before, between or after those. So any fixed date is merely a guideline and not worth arguing about. Spring is over when the hawthorn blossom is over (end May, usually) and autumn is the period between picking the first and the last apple.
Seeing lambs in the field now. Where the hell does that leave us?
Note Mike writes, in the second paragraph, that the great vaccine effect makes things "much harder" for Johnson.
The fact that this doesn`t read "much easier" (as it should) is testament to that the default position of "lockdown over liberties" and testament to the government`s default aim of "must avoid criticism" over growing some balls and taking us out of this nightmare as quickly as possible within NHS capacity.
We shouldn`t be constrained for a day longer than is necessary and that is legal.
Just catching up on threads. Firstly, excellent piece by Mike – there have been some brilliant leaders by the Smithsons (Jr and Sr) in recent days. Also enjoyed the linked column by Dr John Lees in the Mail.
I couldn't agree more with @Stocky here – the government needs to grow a pair. The first and most important step is drumming into the Mad Scientists that it is HOSPITALISATIONS that should be the key metric not CASES (h/t @theProle FPT).
Do we even need to know the number of daily positive cases anymore? Isn`t this just stoking up fear?
No. Watching the daily positive cases coming down is one of the only things that gives me optimism and hope.
Deaths and hospitalisations are what actually matter.
Well not quite. Until a vast majority of our population is vaccinated higher cases still leads to higher hospitalisations and higher deaths. They are all linked.
The less (fewer) cases, the less chance I have of catching COVID.
But the issue is that the scientists are moving the goalposts. Rishi was right, we were sold this lockdown as a way to protect the NHS from collapse. Now we're being told it's a way to get cases down. How long until that becomes getting cases to zero before we're allowed out of it?
No. The line must be kept at ensuring the NHS doesn't collapse, we're on the way to achieving that in a lasting way by ensuring all people at risk of ending up on hospital from this will be immunised by the end of April (in reality probably the end of March) and all adults by August (more likely June). The idea that once this is achieved we should stay in lockdown because cases are high is simply unacceptable and the scientists are moving the goalposts. We can't have rule by SAGE, no one voted for them.
We won't have rule by SAGE any more than we had rule by Cummings. The PM/ministers will listen to advisers, but they make the call and they are held to account for it.
The scientists (in the virology/public health/epidemiology areas) will advise on what's best for their area of expertise. The virologists and epidemiologists might well push for crushing cases to reduce chances of further damaging mutations (although, realistically, they are more likely to come from countries with few vaccinations and largely beyond our control other than border closing). The public health scientists should take a wider view on e.g. mental health, getting other health services back to full capacity. There should also be economists advising, who will likely push to open as much as possible as soon as possible.
Having said that, I agree that getting everyone* vaccinated (plus two-three weeks) should be a pretty clear end point. After that, things are as good as they're going to get, unless the NHS is on point of collapse there's no holding on a bit longer for things to get better, as they won't (they should be pretty good by then). The only justification for going longer would be a new vaccine-dodging strain that puts a lot of people in hospital or kills them (i.e. the already used vaccines don't prevent even severe illness) and a new vaccine for that very close. In that scenario, restrictions would still be to prevent NHS collapse, but we should not get into that situation.
* or indeed just the vulnerable for at least most restrictions
As we are constantly being told, the public is hugely in favour of continued lockdown. So why on earth wouldn't Boris continue to say "we are following the science" and maintain the lockdown until we have a "robust and effective strategy to identify new variants"?
= continued popularity = continued governing = trebles all round.
Current polling maybe. Try polling on a scenario in which we're in July, deaths are in double figures or lower. People hate lockdown, but at present they think it's justified. They won't think that when it isn't.
Also, I was unfair on the epidemiologists/virologists above. They didn't call for a lockdown very early in the pandemic, which is what you would do if only bothered about cases and damn everything else - didn't SAGE recommend it about two weeks or so before it actually happened? There's not a lot of evidence that even SAGE are lockdown-happy.
We shall see.
But it is entirely possible that Chris Whitty, Chris Hopson et al will agitate against opening up "just in case". And they will do so standing alongside the Prime Minister broadcasting live to the country at 5pm in front of the Union Jack.
Plenty of people will imo take what they say as "the science" and to be followed.
Yup, and there's always going to be a "just in case" reason for these types, it could be mutations, it could be the unvaccinated BAME people being put at risk, it could be too many cases or the NHS not being able to cope with new non-COVID issues. It's like you said, they've been handed this all powerful policy tool to conquer death and for public health types that's their primary concern.
Isn't it just about impossible to get positive tests at less than 1000 a day? My understanding (and I can't remember where from) is that false positivity rate is around 0.5%. If Covid doesn't exist, but we are doing 300,000 tests a day, we'll still be getting 1,500 positives a day. And of those 1,500, you will always get a handful then dying in the next 28 days. Therefore, deaths will never be zero. If anyone can disabuse me of this I'd be very grateful - otherwise I can't see a route out of lockdown ever.
That false positive rate is not 0.5%.
The ONS estimate puts the absolute upper bound of false positives to be 0.08%
That is assuming every single positive from its test sample of ~200k were positive.
Literally zero acutal positive cases, every single one a false positive.
For 800,000 daily tests then 0.08% still equals 640 potentially doesn't it?
Correct but 0.08% is not the actual false positive rate. It is the absolute ceiling on false positives.
Tbh, it's not false positives that are the problem. It's asymptomatic and mild cases among people who have been vaccinated. There is almost guaranteed to be more tha 1k per day in that category with the amount of testing we're doing. That's why it feels like a really dishonest moving of the goal posts.
It's a problem to have 10k per day getting infected when 1k of those end up in hospital, it's not a problem to have 10x as many per day getting infected when only 10 of them end up in hospital. The people who are proposing moving to cases know this as well but they really do seem fixated on keeping people locked up forever. It's up to the politicians to be brave and open up against that advice because lockdown forever isn't a solution to any problem.
Yep, 'true-but-irrelevant' positives could be an issue with the mainstream testing (or at least, comparing numbers now to numbers last summer for example). Shouldn't be for the ONS surveillance studies though.
'Irrelevant' of course depending on the context - they're relevant to telling whether someone is infected, but not - hopefully, any more - so relevant as a leading indicator of hospitalisations and deaths and the need to lock down.
Yeah and this is why it's so alarming to have scientists and other public health people try to link lockdown easing to case numbers. It feels completely dishonest and I don't blame the Chancellor for blowing up at them recently if this is the reason.
Surely the ONS study will suffer from it too unless they're asking people to list any symptoms they have when filling in the survey. If they are then it actually could be a treasure trove of data for the whole world.
Finally you realise. Finally.
There are people out there, powerful people, who will link the easing of lockdown to anything whatever that keeps us in lockdown.
Why would they do that?
Ooh me sir me sir.
Here's a couple off the top of my head.
1. NHS bods dictating policy atm want $$$ for the NHS. Historically no one has given them this (or enough of this). NHS bods dictating policy link ending lockdown to the receipt of $$$ for the NHS. How much $$$? Sky's the limit.
2. Tough lockdown strategy popular in the polls. "Following the science" popular in the polls. Boris continuing lockdown and "following the science" = Boris riding high in the polls.
The medical profession has been trying to control us for decades. All those surveys on what you should or shouldn't eat/do etc. which were patently ignored by ordinary people,.
Finally, finally, they have traction. They have leverage. They have power.
It's a testament to your commitment to your username that, on the first day in ages when you long-expressed views sort of make sense at last, that you have upped the ante to this level in a desperate bid to ensure that nobody can possibly agree with you on it.
Quite why the medical profession should be so invested in making sure that, for example, your meals are bland and unenjoyable, is completely beyond me.
$$$
I don't think they want to control our minds. But they sure as hell want more money.
Well, more charitably I would say that fewer clinically obese patients suffering from heart conditions means more NHS funds available to treat other conditions (in simple terms, so ignoring the short term vs long term cost benefit analysis).
But all that does is raise the question of how they expect to continue receiving more and more money if they won't allow the economy that pays their wages to open up again?
Well money hasn't been a problem to date. And you answer the question yourself re fatties. And they brought down the official "safe" drinking limit recently.
CMO: "The only way we are going to be able to function is if we have an increase in $$$ so that we can handle new variants/new diseases/the backlog in "normal" cases/fatties/adventure sportsmen/mountaineers/rock climbers/steeplechase jockeys/rally drivers/@Dura_Ace /circus highwire performers/etc. Until we get that money, sadly we won't be able to agree to open up society."
Is not out of the question.
Sure, that makes some sense as a position. I'm not concerned about it, because it's a terrible argument to put to the cabinet without a whole lot more leverage than they actually have. The response is obvious: we can't give you the money unless we open up society, so you'll have to pick your poison.
Oh and by the way we're going to ignore you either way because it's become politically unviable to keep society locked up any longer.
PS I do find it amusing that you chose to tag (rather than just reference) Dura_Ace in a post that has literally nothing to do with him.
Yebbut is it? Look at the polls, as are frequently quoted on here. Public hugely in favour of lockdown. So take away their furlough - can you see BoJo doing that? Not a chance.
And as for your PS I don't see a difference in tagging or referring. What is the difference/amusing bit? Does he get a credit?
1) Those polls are going to change, drastically, once the death rate drops down into double digit per day levels and stays there.
2) He gets a message via Vanilla if you tag him. Not a huge deal, but amused me. If you click your name on one of your posts you get taken to your "homepage" which shows you your system messages (among other things).
Oh. I didn't know that. Is that the globe with the red number at the top of the page (I'm on vanilla)? Mine says 30 - I've never looked at it.
That's the one. I suspect a lot of people have never noticed! If you get an actual message then it comes via email, somehow.
That's the architect of the Texas Electricity generation market there saying everything is going grand.
When the last bit of dry land on the planet is being lapped by ocean waves because the ice caps have melted the fundamentalists will still be insisting "the market is functioning perfectly, as land has become more scarce the price has risen forcing consumers to gurgle gurgle.... "
I'll try and find the tweet thread by the economist who said there would be no major problems with global mean temperature rising by 10 degrees centigrade.
That's the architect of the Texas Electricity generation market there saying everything is going grand.
When the last bit of dry land on the planet is being lapped by ocean waves because the ice caps have melted the fundamentalists will still be insisting "the market is functioning perfectly, as land has become more scarce the price has risen forcing consumers to gurgle gurgle.... "
It's also a lie as consumers were forcibly having their electricity switched off, they weren't choosing to do so.
The idea that mid September is more Summer than mid June is absolute madness.
It is both colder and shorter days in September than June. How is that more summer?
Dare I suggest that the four seasons don't need to be of roughly equal length?
I'd suggest: Summer late May to early Sept Autumn Mid Sept to mid Nov Winter late Nov to Feb Spring March to early May
Things start sucking on November 1, without fail. They cease to suck when spring comes, and that for practical purposes varies. It's when it warms up and the grass starts growing, which is sometimes March 1 and sometimes March 20 and sometimes other dates before, between or after those. So any fixed date is merely a guideline and not worth arguing about. Spring is over when the hawthorn blossom is over (end May, usually) and autumn is the period between picking the first and the last apple.
I think Bonfire Night is the final autumnal event.
After that its winter.
Feast of St Martin on November 11th - Martinmas - was at one time traditionally the start of winter.
Comments
I've been to day night ODI matches held on the 25th of September, so it is summer in my eyes if we can play cricket in mid to late September.
Everything still going down 25% week on week....
Just the tick tock of everyday hussle and bussle. The crowded trains. The traffic jams. The bants at work. Thursday night in the pub. Sport at the week-end. Going to the theatre. Getting caught in the rain.
Reading it now, its stating the obvious, but even so.
Summer late May to early Sept
Autumn Mid Sept to mid Nov
Winter late Nov to Feb
Spring March to early May
One involves seaweed mixed into the fed, for example.
I'm happy to keep going, but this is hard for some and very hard for others. I don;t want to lift things too early and end up going backwards and I think the hospitals is going to be the key. Some will be quietly emptying again and we should rejoice at that. Some (like Foxy's) are still way over capacity, and its going to take a long time to get more normal. My biggest fear is that the government has swung too far on the caution side now, after being burned and criticised so heavily in the past. Cases will at some point decouple from admissions and deaths, and those in power will need to adjust. I hope they can. I doubt that (most) of the media will...
I'd be happy to narrow autumn to pretty much October. October is the only really autumnal month, start of November too. By end of November trees are already bare and it feels like winter already.
(Sorry, couldn't resist.)
Q: Do you know what O.J. Simpson's website is?
A: W W W slash, slash. forward slash, backward slash O J Simpson dot com.
I know I'm a terrible human being.
My guess is that some areas are now seeing the majority of their cases come from the Kent variant and there has been a reduction in lockdown adherence which is resulting in an R of just over 1 because there isn't a lot of prior infection immunity like there is in London, SE and East which had a huge explosion in cases from November to January.
The golf club has had a poor pandemic. Locking up all the entrances to prevent having anyone exercise there when forced to close, in contrast to the cricket club which chose the exact opposite.
Then asking for a marquee (members only natch) from the Community Covid fund.
Under questioning from the Parish Council, it was quite clear they regarded "the wider community" and fully paid up members of the golf club to be one and the same thing.
https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1362071563063943174?s=20
After that its winter.
When cases rise, people change their behaviour. Lockdown has little to do with it.
David Paton"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/02/17/we-do-not-need-lockdown-to-keep-covid-under-control/
https://twitter.com/noahpransky/status/1362068601503703043?s=20
Only thing I`ll add, having been thinking about @Casino_Royale `s post all day, is that there is a difference between sadness and depression. I`m concerned that the two are frequently conflated.
I`m desperately sad at the moment, for obvious reasons, but there is no way that I`m depressed. We have had events that have created sadness in our lives piled up and piled up again over the last twelve months. Sadness obviously - but depression? Be sure - and until then I`d be hesitant about medication if I were you - but that is almost certainly what the GP will prescribe if you see him/her.
On this, you are right.
I'd say Bonfire Night is end of autumn, Remembrance Sunday is roughly start of winter.
NEW THREAD
https://twitter.com/jennystrasburg/status/1362022676093665285
Q: Do you know what the last thing was to go through Diana's mind when they crashed?
A: The windscreen.
Apologies.