This is the problematic quote afaics: Jews were beaten in the streets, not by Nazi soldiers but by their neighbors … even by children,” the report said quoting the post.
“Because history is edited, most people today don’t realize that to get to the point where Nazi soldiers could easily round up thousands of Jews, the government first made their own neighbors hate them simply for being Jews. How is that any different from hating someone for their political views.”
IMV hating someone is hating someone. It doesn't really matter why.
But on the left it is totemic that motive matters more than action. (cf the higher sentences for racist/sexuality motivated crimes in the UK vs generic crimes)
Mens Rea has been part of criminal law for a very long time I think. The motive makes the crime in many cases, not just those involving hate.
Yes, but I was thinking not of Mens Rea, but the fact that you have a higher sentence for beating up a black or gay person (as a hate crime) vs beating up someone because they just happen to be in the area.
For me it's the beating up that is the crime that needs punishing, not the "why".
Speaking of listings, what I'd really like to see is rules loosened a bit so that startups aren't drawn to the US so easily. Our premium listing rules definitely need to be looked at again so that London gets its share of startup listings. Currently the UK accounts for a huge proportion of tech and fintech startups but hardly any of them choose London as their primary listing, most of them go to the US. That's something we need to urgently address. UK investors are missing out on a huge part of the UK economy because of this.
Yes, London needs to fight back fast. Freed of EU regulations there ARE opportunities (as well as big risks). The only choice is to be a nimbler competitor.
The EU will always move more slowly. It is the supertanker, we are the speedboat, as Ursula has helpfully informed us. We must exploit this.
I think you're overestimating he effect of losing EU based equity trading. If anything all that happens is EU companies put up a bunch of secondary listings on the LSE. We do need to move on listing rules, but that's something we've needed to do for years to catch up with new business models of companies losing money up front for a lot longer than was previously deemed acceptable by investors.
It is obvious proof of vaccination is going to be required, despite what any minister in the UK might say at the moment.
Well why say it?
I think what they don't want to get into is "jollies for oldies" while the young have not yet had a chance to be vaccinated. I would only roll out "vaccine passports" once everyone who is entitled to one has had a chance to get fully inoculated - they don't want to spell out that that means "Autumn".
I think that's right. The industry is working on a standardised scheme through the IATA, and I don't doubt for a moment that the UK would join.
I'm wondering if there's now an effect caused by England going for the low hanging fruit first (BJ & co going for headline grabbing, easier to attain figures, surely not!) now getting into the grindy, pita stuff
Yes, England really needs to get back into those care homes if it's to have any hope of vaccinating 125% of residents as Scotland has done. Screaming "NOOOO-O-O" and foaming at the mouth will not be tolerated as some sort of valid reason for non-participation this time around. Nor will having a touch of the sniffles - especially now the vaccine can be delivered at a safe distance by modified tranquiliser harpoons.
Angry humour with a missing vital component. 3 out of 10, must try harder.
I presume that it's this tweet about which you're grumpy, do you think Mr Gye's anecdote is wrong?
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
By the 8th of March, we're more or less on course for a national infection rate of 30 odd cases per 100k, which given the loosely discussed threshold for staying in tier 1 used to be 100 cases per 100k gives a decent idea of how incredibly cautious the government is being.
No you don;t understand Maarsh.
The government is desperate to get us out of lockdown. Desperate. Most people on here don't think they want it a minute longer than needed.
People such as Matt Hancock cannot abide having unbridled power given to them by unquestioning MPs.
SAGE members DESPISE turning Britain into their own private experimental laboratory with no accountability whatsoever.
Speaking as an epidemiologist, the current lockdown is actually pretty terrible for us, experimentally. What we'd like is randomisation of people (or areas - a cluster-randomised trial will do) to different NPI regimes including none at all, so we can really see what works and what doesn't, with compulsion for people in some areas to 'carry on as normal' even if the pox is rife so we can get a feel for how bad that is - no self-imposed safety precautions permitted. Or at least let local councils decide so we can do some nice observational studies. All the current lockdown tells us is that lockdowns work, but we already know that. And the current lockdown and self-imposed precautions also mess with our experiment into the real-world efficacy of vaccines.
Not to mention that it's destroyed other trials we were doing (as in some cases the treatments have stopped) and is going to cause a massive headache for observational studies (on things other than Covid) for years to come.
So, yeah, you are right. The scientists despise the lockdown.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
Yes that radio 4 interview was incoherant - saying transmission was incredibly high and we're a long way from discussing easing restrictions, then saying it would need to be in the single thousands, which is basically next week.
He thinks there are 750,000 infections right now.
These people are advising our government.
He was referring to the last ONS data release, which is about a week old I think. Or do you think the ONS data is suspect?
Haven't seen any comments but do you want to kick off the debate?
Chat shit, get banged.
Or perhaps 'how to prove a person claiming that holding the wrong political opinions gets you persecuted right by, er, persecuting her for holding the wrong political opinions'.
Her analogy is hyperbolic and not very sensitive, for obvious reasons, but destroying her career and cancelling her is a gross overreaction when a clear apology would have sufficed. I don't see people who quote Pastor Niemöller's famous lines in less serious contexts than those to which they originally referred being flushed down the memory hole as a consequence.
Come on, this is Disney.
They don't like the talent expressing political opinions at all. Let alone repeated conspiracy theory stuff. ...It was not the first time fans on social media demanded she be fired from the Disney+ series. And other fans rallied to show their support of the actress.
She has previously been called out for posts that mocked wearing masks amid the COVID-19 pandemic and making fun of the practice of sharing pronouns (something her “Mandalorian” costar Pedro Pascal does on his Twitter account).
Carano has also falsely claimed voter fraud affected the results of the 2020 presidential election and has shared other conspiracy theories in her posts...
Of course it's mostly a commercial decision, but that doesn't mean we can't discuss the ethics of it. I dislike most of those opinions - mocking masks and pushing the voter fraud narrative is particularly stupid - but her views have no bearing whatsoever on her work, and Disney should try to remember that some of their customers may still believe in quaint things like freedom of speech.
Disney has been restrictive on such things since they days of Walt, and would almost certainly disagree vehemently with you that the public expression of controversial political views (from left or right) have no bearing on her work. And I'm pretty sure the contracts they have with their actors make that clear.
I don't much like Disney, but I'm utterly unsurprised they've done this.
It's very easy to take a principled stand, either a moral one, or a "raise your eyes to the far horizon" one, if your life is fundamentally comfortable. It's very easy to take a heap of winnings and risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss if it's not all your winnings and you know you have plenty of cash elsewhere.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
The Guy who wants to see transmission in the single thousands, Jeremy Farrar, thinks there are ......er....750,000 cases right now/
Just for your ref.
And the other guy, John Edmunds, claimed we should wear masks forever.
You are misquoting John.
He said "People will wear mask on the tube and things like that, probably for ever"
- Not generalised - Not compulsory - Just an expectation
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting on a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or in a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (arguably more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting in a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax etc etc? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
It's very easy to take a principled stand, either a moral one, or a "raise your eyes to the far horizon" one, if your life is fundamentally comfortable. It's very easy to take a heap of winnings and risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss if it's not all your winnings and you know you have plenty of cash elsewhere.
Haven't seen any comments but do you want to kick off the debate?
Chat shit, get banged.
Or perhaps 'how to prove a person claiming that holding the wrong political opinions gets you persecuted right by, er, persecuting her for holding the wrong political opinions'.
Her analogy is hyperbolic and not very sensitive, for obvious reasons, but destroying her career and cancelling her is a gross overreaction when a clear apology would have sufficed. I don't see people who quote Pastor Niemöller's famous lines in less serious contexts than those to which they originally referred being flushed down the memory hole as a consequence.
Come on, this is Disney.
They don't like the talent expressing political opinions at all. Let alone repeated conspiracy theory stuff. ...It was not the first time fans on social media demanded she be fired from the Disney+ series. And other fans rallied to show their support of the actress.
She has previously been called out for posts that mocked wearing masks amid the COVID-19 pandemic and making fun of the practice of sharing pronouns (something her “Mandalorian” costar Pedro Pascal does on his Twitter account).
Carano has also falsely claimed voter fraud affected the results of the 2020 presidential election and has shared other conspiracy theories in her posts...
Yep. Disney protecting its Family Friendly image.
It's a shame, really; she brought an authentic-feeling physical energy to the role of Cara Dune; the show was better because of her, in a small way.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
The Guy who wants to see transmission in the single thousands, Jeremy Farrar, thinks there are ......er....750,000 cases right now/
Just for your ref.
And the other guy, John Edmunds, claimed we should wear masks forever.
You are misquoting John.
He said "People will wear mask on the tube and things like that, probably for ever"
- Not generalised - Not compulsory - Just an expectation
Why am I not surprised @contrarian twisted his words to such an extent.
@Philip_Thompson I got a notification that you mentioned me regarding Net Satisfaction vs Positives in Leader Ratings, and one of the reasons given as to why NS is better was the 2015 GE result.
Here are Cameron, Miliband & Clegg's Positives and NS for that parliament... I cant really see why one would be more useful than the other on this occasion to be honest.
Hi sam,
I quoted you as being the one from memory who found OGH's 2011 article saying that it was positives rather than net figures that were the most important.
TSE tried to explain that the 2015 election changes that but like you I see no justification for that in those figures. The leadership ratings worked well to predict the election results as opposed to poll ratings but like OGH wrote in 2011, the approval figures worked well to do so.
Now though all of a sudden only net figures matter. I wonder why?
There were 281 Leader Rating Polls during Ed's time as LotO, he got a better Positive approval score than Cameron on 10 occasions, and a better Net Satisfaction score on 37
That would indicate to me that gross trumped net as an indicator then surely @TheScreamingEagles ?
Cameron's average lead was 11.25 on Gross and 14.29 on Net, but I think that should always be the case, as the range is half the size.
So if one mate was having a tenner on Labour every time Ed led the Gross positives, and another were backing them for a tenner whenever Ed led the NS, the NS backer would have been £270 worse off I guess
Politicians are driven by self interest. If people are stuck inside, unable to work or shop, then they're not paying taxes. A politician without tax revenue is a very sad politician. That's why lockdown was lifted the first time and will be lifted again.
If you think politicians want to keep everyone locked down forever and thus limit the politicians' ability to spend other peoples money, then you have a very charitable view of politicians!
VAT on sales of digital goods is already exactly like this within the EU. Its a series of stupid rules by the EU, in which they tried to target Amazon and just ended up targeting people like me. However, within a month there was software that did it all for you.
It's very easy to take a principled stand, either a moral one, or a "raise your eyes to the far horizon" one, if your life is fundamentally comfortable. It's very easy to take a heap of winnings and risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss if it's not all your winnings and you know you have plenty of cash elsewhere.
It's very easy to take a principled stand, either a moral one, or a "raise your eyes to the far horizon" one, if your life is fundamentally comfortable. It's very easy to take a heap of winnings and risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss if it's not all your winnings and you know you have plenty of cash elsewhere.
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (arguably more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting in a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax etc etc? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
You emotional remainers (as distinct the reluctant, pragmatic remainers like me) really struggle to accept that Brexit is already, and always will be, judged as a success by those who voted for it. They are delighted - delighted - that we have left the EU. That`s it.
A drug normally used to treat arthritis can be a life-saver for some of the sickest hospital patients with Covid, new research shows.
For every 25 patients treated with tocilizumab, along with a cheap steroid already routinely given, an additional life would be saved, the experts say.
Haven't seen any comments but do you want to kick off the debate?
Chat shit, get banged.
Or perhaps 'how to prove a person claiming that holding the wrong political opinions gets you persecuted right by, er, persecuting her for holding the wrong political opinions'.
Her analogy is hyperbolic and not very sensitive, for obvious reasons, but destroying her career and cancelling her is a gross overreaction when a clear apology would have sufficed. I don't see people who quote Pastor Niemöller's famous lines in less serious contexts than those to which they originally referred being flushed down the memory hole as a consequence.
Come on, this is Disney.
They don't like the talent expressing political opinions at all. Let alone repeated conspiracy theory stuff. ...It was not the first time fans on social media demanded she be fired from the Disney+ series. And other fans rallied to show their support of the actress.
She has previously been called out for posts that mocked wearing masks amid the COVID-19 pandemic and making fun of the practice of sharing pronouns (something her “Mandalorian” costar Pedro Pascal does on his Twitter account).
Carano has also falsely claimed voter fraud affected the results of the 2020 presidential election and has shared other conspiracy theories in her posts...
Of course it's mostly a commercial decision, but that doesn't mean we can't discuss the ethics of it. I dislike most of those opinions - mocking masks and pushing the voter fraud narrative is particularly stupid - but her views have no bearing whatsoever on her work, and Disney should try to remember that some of their customers may still believe in quaint things like freedom of speech.
Disney has been restrictive on such things since they days of Walt, and would almost certainly disagree vehemently with you that the public expression of controversial political views (from left or right) have no bearing on her work. And I'm pretty sure the contracts they have with their actors make that clear.
I don't much like Disney, but I'm utterly unsurprised they've done this.
I quite liked her in the show. I think people get a bit too precious about what their cultural performers say or think. Spacey’s a great actor and last I heard has not been convicted of any crime. I’d happily watch something with him, if anyone let him work again. As for some tv show side character actress, who’s real name I didn’t know until today, saying something daft on instragram? Who cares! Mando is going to struggle in his next fight without her wit and brawn to help him.
On (1), it is worth noting that the Argentinian Embassy in London is technically titled the Embassy of Argentina and Mercosur. I don't know if there is an official Mercosur Ambassador, but the UK could have relegated the office to being simply the Mercosur Mission or Representative Office.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
The Guy who wants to see transmission in the single thousands, Jeremy Farrar, thinks there are ......er....750,000 cases right now/
Just for your ref.
And the other guy, John Edmunds, claimed we should wear masks forever.
Transmission and cases are differnt things. By definition cases are what happends after transmission. Transmission means number of people infested per day. Admittedly it was an incoherent interview and the media have not covered themselves in glory but he definately said transmission. It's transmission that should be in the single thousands. Zoe App has symptomatic cases at about 300,000 and, if you add asymtomatic cases, that's the same order or magnitude as what Farrar was saying. He also said this should be the last lockdown at this level.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
Yes that radio 4 interview was incoherant - saying transmission was incredibly high and we're a long way from discussing easing restrictions, then saying it would need to be in the single thousands, which is basically next week.
He thinks there are 750,000 infections right now.
These people are advising our government.
He was referring to the last ONS data release, which is about a week old I think. Or do you think the ONS data is suspect?
No he wasn;t.
Farrar was referring to his own estimate of the true amount of infections in the UK right now, (his own esimtate is 750,000), which he said was 75 times higher than it should be.
75 times.
The goalposts are shifting all the time. These men do not want any change to the current arrangements for the foreseeable. At all. And they are the government's advisors.
A drug normally used to treat arthritis can be a life-saver for some of the sickest hospital patients with Covid, new research shows.
For every 25 patients treated with tocilizumab, along with a cheap steroid already routinely given, an additional life would be saved, the experts say.
I'm getting the impression that pumping the old dears full of steroids is a viable path out of the pandemic.
Not going to pass the drug testing for the Olympics though....
Will be useful for carrying all those shopping bags home from Tescos though.
I couldn't believe my eyes the other day when the BBC reported from Bristol mass vaccination centre...all these bloody old dears rocking up with those drag along shopping bag thingies.
Your going for your life saving jab, not a trip to Tescos.....ohhhh but what if they have some freebies or a good bargain.
Perhaps Tesco was around the corner?
Though if it is Bristol it may have been stormed by rioters.
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
It allows Russia to bypass Eastern Europe and continue supplying gas to Western Europe. As it stands the only way to cut off Eastern Europe from gas also results in cutting off extremely profitable Western European markets simultaneously.
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
Then the right way forward would appear to be to build alternative supply lines to those countries, rather than preventing Russia and Germany from pursuing what is on the face of it a legitimate commercial initiative. I know exactly what I would think as a British consumer if another country wanted to stop me getting cheaper power from another country - so I don't see why the Germans should feel any different.
How do you feel as a British consumer having to pay for baseload nuclear electricity at twice the price of domestic tidal? And it is the Whitehall civil servants stopping you getting that cheaper power....
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
Yes that radio 4 interview was incoherant - saying transmission was incredibly high and we're a long way from discussing easing restrictions, then saying it would need to be in the single thousands, which is basically next week.
He thinks there are 750,000 infections right now.
These people are advising our government.
He was referring to the last ONS data release, which is about a week old I think. Or do you think the ONS data is suspect?
No he wasn;t.
Farrar was referring to his own estimate of the true amount of infections in the UK right now, (his own esimtate is 750,000), which he said was 75 times higher than it should be.
75 times.
The goalposts are shifting all the time. These men do not want any change to the current arrangements for the foreseeable. At all. And they are the government's advisors.
Well his estimate is very similar to the ONS survey! As for the target, unless he has changed his desired infection rate I don't see how the goalposts are being moved. Unless you think all advisors and politicians must have the same opinion?
This is the problematic quote afaics: Jews were beaten in the streets, not by Nazi soldiers but by their neighbors … even by children,” the report said quoting the post.
“Because history is edited, most people today don’t realize that to get to the point where Nazi soldiers could easily round up thousands of Jews, the government first made their own neighbors hate them simply for being Jews. How is that any different from hating someone for their political views.”
IMV hating someone is hating someone. It doesn't really matter why.
But on the left it is totemic that motive matters more than action. (cf the higher sentences for racist/sexuality motivated crimes in the UK vs generic crimes)
Mens Rea has been part of criminal law for a very long time I think. The motive makes the crime in many cases, not just those involving hate.
Yes, but I was thinking not of Mens Rea, but the fact that you have a higher sentence for beating up a black or gay person (as a hate crime) vs beating up someone because they just happen to be in the area.
For me it's the beating up that is the crime that needs punishing, not the "why".
Beating someone up could be justified though, if you did it to stop a worse crime. I will probably be corrected here, but the reasonable belief that one was acting in such a way would probably be a good defence (though perhaps difficult to prove).
If the state of mind of the defendant can be used in mitigation then I see no reason why it should not be used the other way. This is particularly true for situations where we see obvious discrimination like the ones you mentioned.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
Yes that radio 4 interview was incoherant - saying transmission was incredibly high and we're a long way from discussing easing restrictions, then saying it would need to be in the single thousands, which is basically next week.
He thinks there are 750,000 infections right now.
These people are advising our government.
He was referring to the last ONS data release, which is about a week old I think. Or do you think the ONS data is suspect?
No he wasn;t.
Farrar was referring to his own estimate of the true amount of infections in the UK right now, (his own esimtate is 750,000), which he said was 75 times higher than it should be.
75 times.
The goalposts are shifting all the time. These men do not want any change to the current arrangements for the foreseeable. At all. And they are the government's advisors.
You have got no clue what you're talking about. 750k does sound high, however, the daily case load of around 15-20k in the official numbers implies that there are around 250k people currently infected.
You can't just take the 10k number and say only 10k are currently infected.
On (1), it is worth noting that the Argentinian Embassy in London is technically titled the Embassy of Argentina and Mercosur. I don't know if there is an official Mercosur Ambassador, but the UK could have relegated the office to being simply the Mercosur Mission or Representative Office.
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
It allows Russia to bypass Eastern Europe and continue supplying gas to Western Europe. As it stands the only way to cut off Eastern Europe from gas also results in cutting off extremely profitable Western European markets simultaneously.
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
Then the right way forward would appear to be to build alternative supply lines to those countries, rather than preventing Russia and Germany from pursuing what is on the face of it a legitimate commercial initiative. I know exactly what I would think as a British consumer if another country wanted to stop me getting cheaper power from another country - so I don't see why the Germans should feel any different.
How do you feel as a British consumer having to pay for baseload nuclear electricity at twice the price of domestic tidal? And it is the Whitehall civil servants stopping you getting that cheaper power....
I feel f-ing livid about it - I'm all in on tidal and if someone tells me who to write to that I can influence (seems unlikely as an Englishman living in Scotland), or points me to a petition I can sign, I'll do it.
I still have a feeling that this situation will turn around as Boris seeks a popular policy in Wales - very excited about it WHEN (not if) it happens.
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (arguably more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting in a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax etc etc? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
You emotional remainers (as distinct the reluctant, pragmatic remainers like me) really struggle to accept that Brexit is already, and always will be, judged as a success by those who voted for it. They are delighted - delighted - that we have left the EU. That`s it.
Does that mean you think it's a success or you can understand why people think it's a success?
Because from my perspective, Brexit looks massively unsuccessful, and I am not as an emotional a Remainer as all that. It's simply that things have turned out pretty much as I expected them to, given that the project was based on assumptions that, while being reasonable in themselves, were never likely to pan out. Same as the Iraq War. I knew from the off that was unlikely to turn out well. It wasn't that I objected to removing a horrible dictator.
Yes if we can get to a situation where all covid cases can be sequenced that would be a massive step forward for being able to predict how the pandemic may play out with respect to our vaccine program.
On (1), it is worth noting that the Argentinian Embassy in London is technically titled the Embassy of Argentina and Mercosur. I don't know if there is an official Mercosur Ambassador, but the UK could have relegated the office to being simply the Mercosur Mission or Representative Office.
Is that true, I googled it in quotes and there were zero hits.
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (arguably more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting in a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax etc etc? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
self-hating much?
Yes a bit. Or a lot. And it only adds to my insight. There is no pacifism more weighty than that of he who has fought and killed.
Farrar was referring to his own estimate of the true amount of infections in the UK right now, (his own esimtate is 750,000), which he said was 75 times higher than it should be.
75 times.
The goalposts are shifting all the time. These men do not want any change to the current arrangements for the foreseeable. At all. And they are the government's advisors.
You keep twisting this. He said transmission needed to be in the single thousands, as I showed above, transmission is self evidently not the same thing as cases. Cases arise as a result of transmission. Just because some hack at the Mail can't tell the difference doesn't mean that the rest of us shouldn't figure it out. Again "Covid Transmission Rate" not cases. If you don't believ me listen to the below.
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
It allows Russia to bypass Eastern Europe and continue supplying gas to Western Europe. As it stands the only way to cut off Eastern Europe from gas also results in cutting off extremely profitable Western European markets simultaneously.
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
Then the right way forward would appear to be to build alternative supply lines to those countries, rather than preventing Russia and Germany from pursuing what is on the face of it a legitimate commercial initiative. I know exactly what I would think as a British consumer if another country wanted to stop me getting cheaper power from another country - so I don't see why the Germans should feel any different.
How do you feel as a British consumer having to pay for baseload nuclear electricity at twice the price of domestic tidal? And it is the Whitehall civil servants stopping you getting that cheaper power....
I feel f-ing livid about it - I'm all in on tidal and if someone tells me who to write to that I can influence (seems unlikely as an Englishman living in Scotland), or points me to a petition I can sign, I'll do it.
I still have a feeling that this situation will turn around as Boris seeks a popular policy in Wales - very excited about it WHEN (not if) it happens.
Farrar was referring to his own estimate of the true amount of infections in the UK right now, (his own esimtate is 750,000), which he said was 75 times higher than it should be.
75 times.
The goalposts are shifting all the time. These men do not want any change to the current arrangements for the foreseeable. At all. And they are the government's advisors.
It would help if you were numerate before you start posting your daily round of nonsense.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
Yes that radio 4 interview was incoherant - saying transmission was incredibly high and we're a long way from discussing easing restrictions, then saying it would need to be in the single thousands, which is basically next week.
He thinks there are 750,000 infections right now.
These people are advising our government.
Let's hope he's right, and then the R rate would be about 0.3 and we're even nearer the finish line
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
It allows Russia to bypass Eastern Europe and continue supplying gas to Western Europe. As it stands the only way to cut off Eastern Europe from gas also results in cutting off extremely profitable Western European markets simultaneously.
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
Then the right way forward would appear to be to build alternative supply lines to those countries, rather than preventing Russia and Germany from pursuing what is on the face of it a legitimate commercial initiative. I know exactly what I would think as a British consumer if another country wanted to stop me getting cheaper power from another country - so I don't see why the Germans should feel any different.
How do you feel as a British consumer having to pay for baseload nuclear electricity at twice the price of domestic tidal? And it is the Whitehall civil servants stopping you getting that cheaper power....
I feel f-ing livid about it - I'm all in on tidal and if someone tells me who to write to that I can influence (seems unlikely as an Englishman living in Scotland), or points me to a petition I can sign, I'll do it.
I still have a feeling that this situation will turn around as Boris seeks a popular policy in Wales - very excited about it WHEN (not if) it happens.
I spoke to the tidal lagoon power lot about making an equity investment several years ago. One of the obvious problems to me was that even if the government signed off on the principle that a tidal lagoon power initiative was a great idea and even greenlit them to run the Swansea scheme, there was no guarantee that the company putting in the legwork for the proof of concept pilot would win the mandate for the larger economic schemes elsewhere.
It needs to be partially nationalised if it’s going to work. Taxpayer taking risk, in exchange for taxpayer getting reward. Not just electricity consumers (not quite the same thing). Old fashioned Tories in Parliament and Treasury mandarins don’t like hearing that sort of thing.
It's very easy to take a principled stand, either a moral one, or a "raise your eyes to the far horizon" one, if your life is fundamentally comfortable. It's very easy to take a heap of winnings and risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss if it's not all your winnings and you know you have plenty of cash elsewhere.
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (arguably more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting in a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax etc etc? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
You emotional remainers (as distinct the reluctant, pragmatic remainers like me) really struggle to accept that Brexit is already, and always will be, judged as a success by those who voted for it. They are delighted - delighted - that we have left the EU. That`s it.
Actually, I do know that, although I wish it were not so. It's done, we're out, thank fuck for that, what a palaver. NEXT. The only way this changes is if it's an absolute and obvious disaster that can be pinned on Brexit. I'm hoping for this and any trueblood Remainer who says they aren't is fibbing.
It's very easy to take a principled stand, either a moral one, or a "raise your eyes to the far horizon" one, if your life is fundamentally comfortable. It's very easy to take a heap of winnings and risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss if it's not all your winnings and you know you have plenty of cash elsewhere.
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (arguably more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting in a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax etc etc? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
You emotional remainers (as distinct the reluctant, pragmatic remainers like me) really struggle to accept that Brexit is already, and always will be, judged as a success by those who voted for it. They are delighted - delighted - that we have left the EU. That`s it.
Actually, I do know that, although I wish it were not so. It's done, we're out, thank fuck for that, what a palaver. NEXT. The only way this changes is if it's an absolute and obvious disaster that can be pinned on Brexit. I'm hoping for this and any trueblood Remainer who says they aren't is fibbing.
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
It allows Russia to bypass Eastern Europe and continue supplying gas to Western Europe. As it stands the only way to cut off Eastern Europe from gas also results in cutting off extremely profitable Western European markets simultaneously.
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
Then the right way forward would appear to be to build alternative supply lines to those countries, rather than preventing Russia and Germany from pursuing what is on the face of it a legitimate commercial initiative. I know exactly what I would think as a British consumer if another country wanted to stop me getting cheaper power from another country - so I don't see why the Germans should feel any different.
How do you feel as a British consumer having to pay for baseload nuclear electricity at twice the price of domestic tidal? And it is the Whitehall civil servants stopping you getting that cheaper power....
I feel f-ing livid about it - I'm all in on tidal and if someone tells me who to write to that I can influence (seems unlikely as an Englishman living in Scotland), or points me to a petition I can sign, I'll do it.
I still have a feeling that this situation will turn around as Boris seeks a popular policy in Wales - very excited about it WHEN (not if) it happens.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
I'm confident of the first daily cases in 4 figures sometime next week (mon or tues most likely). It might still be 9,999, but will be a big psychological step. I'd personally want new cases below a 1000 before any significant opening (i.e. approaching normal), but I'm fairly sure schools will be March 8th, and I heard rumours of Uni's too (albeit with students expected to travel early and be tested before the 8th).
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
It allows Russia to bypass Eastern Europe and continue supplying gas to Western Europe. As it stands the only way to cut off Eastern Europe from gas also results in cutting off extremely profitable Western European markets simultaneously.
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
Then the right way forward would appear to be to build alternative supply lines to those countries, rather than preventing Russia and Germany from pursuing what is on the face of it a legitimate commercial initiative. I know exactly what I would think as a British consumer if another country wanted to stop me getting cheaper power from another country - so I don't see why the Germans should feel any different.
How do you feel as a British consumer having to pay for baseload nuclear electricity at twice the price of domestic tidal? And it is the Whitehall civil servants stopping you getting that cheaper power....
I feel f-ing livid about it - I'm all in on tidal and if someone tells me who to write to that I can influence (seems unlikely as an Englishman living in Scotland), or points me to a petition I can sign, I'll do it.
I still have a feeling that this situation will turn around as Boris seeks a popular policy in Wales - very excited about it WHEN (not if) it happens.
I spoke to the tidal lagoon power lot about making an equity investment several years ago. One of the obvious problems to me was that even if the government signed off on the principle that a tidal lagoon power initiative was a great idea and even greenlit them to run the Swansea scheme, there was no guarantee that the company putting in the legwork for the proof of concept pilot would win the mandate for the larger economic schemes elsewhere.
It needs to be partially nationalised if it’s going to work. Taxpayer taking risk, in exchange for taxpayer getting reward. Not just electricity consumers (not quite the same thing). Old fashioned Tories in Parliament and Treasury mandarins don’t like hearing that sort of thing.
I don't follow on the risk vs reward - what is the price for power generated by the scheme vs the market price?
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
But in the early phase of both lockdowns the NHS did nearly collapse. In fact take the "nearly" out in places. So with no lockdown? ...
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
I'm confident of the first daily cases in 4 figures sometime next week (mon or tues most likely). It might still be 9,999, but will be a big psychological step. I'd personally want new cases below a 1000 before any significant opening (i.e. approaching normal), but I'm fairly sure schools will be March 8th, and I heard rumours of Uni's too (albeit with students expected to travel early and be tested before the 8th).
Yes the 'daily cases below 1,000' (or national 7 day rate 10 per 100,000) is likely to be required before any significant relaxation - might get there by Easter
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (arguably more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting in a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax etc etc? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
You emotional remainers (as distinct the reluctant, pragmatic remainers like me) really struggle to accept that Brexit is already, and always will be, judged as a success by those who voted for it. They are delighted - delighted - that we have left the EU. That`s it.
Does that mean you think it's a success or you can understand why people think it's a success?
Because from my perspective, Brexit looks massively unsuccessful, and I am not as an emotional a Remainer as all that. It's simply that things have turned out pretty much as I expected them to, given that the project was based on assumptions that, while being reasonable in themselves, were never likely to pan out. Same as the Iraq War. I knew from the off that was unlikely to turn out well. It wasn't that I objected to removing a horrible dictator.
The latter : I can understand why people think it's a success.
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (arguably more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting in a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax etc etc? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
You emotional remainers (as distinct the reluctant, pragmatic remainers like me) really struggle to accept that Brexit is already, and always will be, judged as a success by those who voted for it. They are delighted - delighted - that we have left the EU. That`s it.
Actually, I do know that, although I wish it were not so. It's done, we're out, thank fuck for that, what a palaver. NEXT. The only way this changes is if it's an absolute and obvious disaster that can be pinned on Brexit. I'm hoping for this and any trueblood Remainer who says they aren't is fibbing.
Sorry not to sugar-coat this, but sickness of the mind isn't too strong a description for this sort of sentiment. Why don't you move to the EU with everyone's blessing? You deserve to live in a country that you actually desire to succeed, and your chosen country of residence deserves that from you.
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
It allows Russia to bypass Eastern Europe and continue supplying gas to Western Europe. As it stands the only way to cut off Eastern Europe from gas also results in cutting off extremely profitable Western European markets simultaneously.
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
Then the right way forward would appear to be to build alternative supply lines to those countries, rather than preventing Russia and Germany from pursuing what is on the face of it a legitimate commercial initiative. I know exactly what I would think as a British consumer if another country wanted to stop me getting cheaper power from another country - so I don't see why the Germans should feel any different.
How do you feel as a British consumer having to pay for baseload nuclear electricity at twice the price of domestic tidal? And it is the Whitehall civil servants stopping you getting that cheaper power....
I feel f-ing livid about it - I'm all in on tidal and if someone tells me who to write to that I can influence (seems unlikely as an Englishman living in Scotland), or points me to a petition I can sign, I'll do it.
I still have a feeling that this situation will turn around as Boris seeks a popular policy in Wales - very excited about it WHEN (not if) it happens.
I spoke to the tidal lagoon power lot about making an equity investment several years ago. One of the obvious problems to me was that even if the government signed off on the principle that a tidal lagoon power initiative was a great idea and even greenlit them to run the Swansea scheme, there was no guarantee that the company putting in the legwork for the proof of concept pilot would win the mandate for the larger economic schemes elsewhere.
It needs to be partially nationalised if it’s going to work. Taxpayer taking risk, in exchange for taxpayer getting reward. Not just electricity consumers (not quite the same thing). Old fashioned Tories in Parliament and Treasury mandarins don’t like hearing that sort of thing.
I don't follow on the risk vs reward - what is the price for power generated by the scheme vs the market price?
From the pilot scheme is much higher but the promise of the technology was that it could then be scaled and be something akin to wind over time but with a reliable base load element. So the state should stick some equity in, then if and when it's shown to work, not only can they dot then about the UK but also get some value back when the technology is exported overseas.
I knew Fergus McReynolds a bit at university (not well, friend of a friend; I probably only ever saw him when he was drinking - I've checked and the pic seems to fit though) and, given what I knew of him I'm astonished that he has a job, let alone a director at Make UK. Maybe my impression of him was unfair, maybe he's changed a lot or maybe it suggests that Make UK should not be taken too seriously. I suspect it's one of the first two (or a bit of both) but it's truly bizarre to see him in an apparently serious position.
Mind, I expect Boris Johnson's contemporaries have similar feelings!
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (arguably more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting in a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax etc etc? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
You emotional remainers (as distinct the reluctant, pragmatic remainers like me) really struggle to accept that Brexit is already, and always will be, judged as a success by those who voted for it. They are delighted - delighted - that we have left the EU. That`s it.
Actually, I do know that, although I wish it were not so. It's done, we're out, thank fuck for that, what a palaver. NEXT. The only way this changes is if it's an absolute and obvious disaster that can be pinned on Brexit. I'm hoping for this and any trueblood Remainer who says they aren't is fibbing.
What a strange way to live a life.
No different to Europhobes wanting the EU to struggle and ideally collapse. I find agnostics more strange.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
The Guy who wants to see transmission in the single thousands, Jeremy Farrar, thinks there are ......er....750,000 cases right now/
Just for your ref.
And the other guy, John Edmunds, claimed we should wear masks forever.
Some issues about the ONS infection survey. I fear it is picking up a lot of those who had the virus in recent weeks/months (see previous re PCR sensitivity) and overstating the actual level of active cases, and infectious people. It is also perforce a very lagging number (takes time to accumulate the samples etc. The ZOE ap figure of around 15,000 new cases a day (and falling) and the recorded cases similar is an indicator that finally we are not missing that many new infections. Depending on duration of the illness, the number with it actively will vary, but most would be infectious for no more than 10 days, so say 150,000 active cases? Would be my guess.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
I'm confident of the first daily cases in 4 figures sometime next week (mon or tues most likely). It might still be 9,999, but will be a big psychological step. I'd personally want new cases below a 1000 before any significant opening (i.e. approaching normal), but I'm fairly sure schools will be March 8th, and I heard rumours of Uni's too (albeit with students expected to travel early and be tested before the 8th).
Yes the 'daily cases below 1,000' (or national 7 day rate 10 per 100,000) is likely to be required before any significant relaxation - might get there by Easter
So 1/10th of the rate considered acceptable for Tier 1 just 2 months ago is now the starting point for significant relaxation, in a population where vaccination has more or less removed the threat of any healthcare rationing.
If that is where we actually end up as an approach, the government will have vastly overstepped proportionality. Thankfully the current enabling act ends before Easter so they'll have to show a bit of common sense if they don't want to rely on Labour votes to keep it going.
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (arguably more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting in a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax etc etc? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
You emotional remainers (as distinct the reluctant, pragmatic remainers like me) really struggle to accept that Brexit is already, and always will be, judged as a success by those who voted for it. They are delighted - delighted - that we have left the EU. That`s it.
Actually, I do know that, although I wish it were not so. It's done, we're out, thank fuck for that, what a palaver. NEXT. The only way this changes is if it's an absolute and obvious disaster that can be pinned on Brexit. I'm hoping for this and any trueblood Remainer who says they aren't is fibbing.
What a strange way to live a life.
No different to Europhobes wanting the EU to struggle and ideally collapse. I find agnostics more strange.
It is not the same, because reprehensible and stupid as those people are, they are not willing their own country, where they pay taxes, and bring up their families, to fail. They are merely selfish, not active self-harmers.
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (arguably more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting in a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax etc etc? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
You emotional remainers (as distinct the reluctant, pragmatic remainers like me) really struggle to accept that Brexit is already, and always will be, judged as a success by those who voted for it. They are delighted - delighted - that we have left the EU. That`s it.
Actually, I do know that, although I wish it were not so. It's done, we're out, thank fuck for that, what a palaver. NEXT. The only way this changes is if it's an absolute and obvious disaster that can be pinned on Brexit. I'm hoping for this and any trueblood Remainer who says they aren't is fibbing.
One can see how the absolute and obvious success of the UK vaccine programme - which is being pinned on Brexit by none other than the self-described EU 'tanker' itself! - might be distressing to you then.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
The Guy who wants to see transmission in the single thousands, Jeremy Farrar, thinks there are ......er....750,000 cases right now/
Just for your ref.
And the other guy, John Edmunds, claimed we should wear masks forever.
Some issues about the ONS infection survey. I fear it is picking up a lot of those who had the virus in recent weeks/months (see previous re PCR sensitivity) and overstating the actual level of active cases, and infectious people. It is also perforce a very lagging number (takes time to accumulate the samples etc. The ZOE ap figure of around 15,000 new cases a day (and falling) and the recorded cases similar is an indicator that finally we are not missing that many new infections. Depending on duration of the illness, the number with it actively will vary, but most would be infectious for no more than 10 days, so say 150,000 active cases? Would be my guess.
The funnel will have more people in the later parts of the infection cycle right now so if there's 15k new infections per day it means the total number of infected is probably 200-250k as 10 days ago 25k people per day were getting infected.
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
It allows Russia to bypass Eastern Europe and continue supplying gas to Western Europe. As it stands the only way to cut off Eastern Europe from gas also results in cutting off extremely profitable Western European markets simultaneously.
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
Then the right way forward would appear to be to build alternative supply lines to those countries, rather than preventing Russia and Germany from pursuing what is on the face of it a legitimate commercial initiative. I know exactly what I would think as a British consumer if another country wanted to stop me getting cheaper power from another country - so I don't see why the Germans should feel any different.
How do you feel as a British consumer having to pay for baseload nuclear electricity at twice the price of domestic tidal? And it is the Whitehall civil servants stopping you getting that cheaper power....
I feel f-ing livid about it - I'm all in on tidal and if someone tells me who to write to that I can influence (seems unlikely as an Englishman living in Scotland), or points me to a petition I can sign, I'll do it.
I still have a feeling that this situation will turn around as Boris seeks a popular policy in Wales - very excited about it WHEN (not if) it happens.
I spoke to the tidal lagoon power lot about making an equity investment several years ago. One of the obvious problems to me was that even if the government signed off on the principle that a tidal lagoon power initiative was a great idea and even greenlit them to run the Swansea scheme, there was no guarantee that the company putting in the legwork for the proof of concept pilot would win the mandate for the larger economic schemes elsewhere.
It needs to be partially nationalised if it’s going to work. Taxpayer taking risk, in exchange for taxpayer getting reward. Not just electricity consumers (not quite the same thing). Old fashioned Tories in Parliament and Treasury mandarins don’t like hearing that sort of thing.
I don't follow on the risk vs reward - what is the price for power generated by the scheme vs the market price?
For Cardiff, it would be in the range £50-55, versus £92.50 for equivalent baseload nuclear. Could be producing in 2030, if we moved forward with planning. Hinkley C (which has an almost identical power output to Cardiff) has cost the taxpayer/consumer £37 billion in subsidies - and still won't be online until at least 2025.
Comparing to wind/solar - where the contracts coming in from 2025 will be c.£40, BUT it is not a dependable supply on any given day (versus tidal, where you can predict to within 1% what the power will be on 11th February 2094. You'll also need to completely replace the whole of that wind/solar installation within c. 30 years. (Nuclear claims 60 - let's see...) The tidal lagoons have a minimum life of 120 years, probably far longer, with replacement turbines needed maybe every 60 years.
Plus the tidal option creates (as acknowledged by BEIS) 57,000 jobs during construction. It's probably nearer 80,00, but hey, getting BEIS to acknowledge that is a start....
It's adorable! That cold blooded gecko (or whatever it is) is loving it too I think.
A chameleon. And a big one. Perhaps a Parson`s chameleon.
Not a chameleon, I think - the feet don't show opposable digits, and not a gecko, no suckers. Looks like an iguanid of some kind, perhaps a Green Iguana.
Yep reasonable benchmark to compare against. Anything in the 13s is great, 14 decent, 15 OK and 16 pretty disappointing, absent any testing spike explanation.
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
It allows Russia to bypass Eastern Europe and continue supplying gas to Western Europe. As it stands the only way to cut off Eastern Europe from gas also results in cutting off extremely profitable Western European markets simultaneously.
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
Then the right way forward would appear to be to build alternative supply lines to those countries, rather than preventing Russia and Germany from pursuing what is on the face of it a legitimate commercial initiative. I know exactly what I would think as a British consumer if another country wanted to stop me getting cheaper power from another country - so I don't see why the Germans should feel any different.
How do you feel as a British consumer having to pay for baseload nuclear electricity at twice the price of domestic tidal? And it is the Whitehall civil servants stopping you getting that cheaper power....
I feel f-ing livid about it - I'm all in on tidal and if someone tells me who to write to that I can influence (seems unlikely as an Englishman living in Scotland), or points me to a petition I can sign, I'll do it.
I still have a feeling that this situation will turn around as Boris seeks a popular policy in Wales - very excited about it WHEN (not if) it happens.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
I'm confident of the first daily cases in 4 figures sometime next week (mon or tues most likely). It might still be 9,999, but will be a big psychological step. I'd personally want new cases below a 1000 before any significant opening (i.e. approaching normal), but I'm fairly sure schools will be March 8th, and I heard rumours of Uni's too (albeit with students expected to travel early and be tested before the 8th).
Yes the 'daily cases below 1,000' (or national 7 day rate 10 per 100,000) is likely to be required before any significant relaxation - might get there by Easter
So 1/10th of the rate considered acceptable for Tier 1 just 2 months ago is now the starting point for significant relaxation, in a population where vaccination has more or less removed the threat of any healthcare rationing.
If that is where we actually end up as an approach, the government will have vastly overstepped proportionality. Thankfully the current enabling act ends before Easter so they'll have to show a bit of common sense if they don't want to rely on Labour votes to keep it going.
Thing is with vaccines now we shouldn't be aiming for Tier1 - it should be a return to normality. If the pathway there is a longer time in lockdown, and a slower release, but the future is normality (or as near as damn) then its worth it. Tiers were for a world with no vaccines yet...
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
It allows Russia to bypass Eastern Europe and continue supplying gas to Western Europe. As it stands the only way to cut off Eastern Europe from gas also results in cutting off extremely profitable Western European markets simultaneously.
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
Then the right way forward would appear to be to build alternative supply lines to those countries, rather than preventing Russia and Germany from pursuing what is on the face of it a legitimate commercial initiative. I know exactly what I would think as a British consumer if another country wanted to stop me getting cheaper power from another country - so I don't see why the Germans should feel any different.
How do you feel as a British consumer having to pay for baseload nuclear electricity at twice the price of domestic tidal? And it is the Whitehall civil servants stopping you getting that cheaper power....
I feel f-ing livid about it - I'm all in on tidal and if someone tells me who to write to that I can influence (seems unlikely as an Englishman living in Scotland), or points me to a petition I can sign, I'll do it.
I still have a feeling that this situation will turn around as Boris seeks a popular policy in Wales - very excited about it WHEN (not if) it happens.
I spoke to the tidal lagoon power lot about making an equity investment several years ago. One of the obvious problems to me was that even if the government signed off on the principle that a tidal lagoon power initiative was a great idea and even greenlit them to run the Swansea scheme, there was no guarantee that the company putting in the legwork for the proof of concept pilot would win the mandate for the larger economic schemes elsewhere.
It needs to be partially nationalised if it’s going to work. Taxpayer taking risk, in exchange for taxpayer getting reward. Not just electricity consumers (not quite the same thing). Old fashioned Tories in Parliament and Treasury mandarins don’t like hearing that sort of thing.
I don't follow on the risk vs reward - what is the price for power generated by the scheme vs the market price?
For Cardiff, it would be in the range £50-55, versus £92.50 for equivalent baseload nuclear. Could be producing in 2030, if we moved forward with planning. Hinkley C (which has an almost identical power output to Cardiff) has cost the taxpayer/consumer £37 billion in subsidies - and still won't be online until at least 2025.
Comparing to wind/solar - where the contracts coming in from 2025 will be c.£40, BUT it is not a dependable supply on any given day (versus tidal, where you can predict to within 1% what the power will be on 11th February 2094. You'll also need to completely replace the whole of that wind/solar installation within c. 30 years. (Nuclear claims 60 - let's see...) The tidal lagoons have a minimum life of 120 years, probably far longer, with replacement turbines needed maybe every 60 years.
Plus the tidal option creates (as acknowledged by BEIS) 57,000 jobs during construction. It's probably nearer 80,00, but hey, getting BEIS to acknowledge that is a start....
This is the problematic quote afaics: Jews were beaten in the streets, not by Nazi soldiers but by their neighbors … even by children,” the report said quoting the post.
“Because history is edited, most people today don’t realize that to get to the point where Nazi soldiers could easily round up thousands of Jews, the government first made their own neighbors hate them simply for being Jews. How is that any different from hating someone for their political views.”
IMV hating someone is hating someone. It doesn't really matter why.
But on the left it is totemic that motive matters more than action. (cf the higher sentences for racist/sexuality motivated crimes in the UK vs generic crimes)
Mens Rea has been part of criminal law for a very long time I think. The motive makes the crime in many cases, not just those involving hate.
Yes, but I was thinking not of Mens Rea, but the fact that you have a higher sentence for beating up a black or gay person (as a hate crime) vs beating up someone because they just happen to be in the area.
For me it's the beating up that is the crime that needs punishing, not the "why".
So, take the Stephen Lawrence murder. For you the racist motivation adds not a jot to the weight of the crime?
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
The Guy who wants to see transmission in the single thousands, Jeremy Farrar, thinks there are ......er....750,000 cases right now/
Just for your ref.
And the other guy, John Edmunds, claimed we should wear masks forever.
Some issues about the ONS infection survey. I fear it is picking up a lot of those who had the virus in recent weeks/months (see previous re PCR sensitivity) and overstating the actual level of active cases, and infectious people. It is also perforce a very lagging number (takes time to accumulate the samples etc. The ZOE ap figure of around 15,000 new cases a day (and falling) and the recorded cases similar is an indicator that finally we are not missing that many new infections. Depending on duration of the illness, the number with it actively will vary, but most would be infectious for no more than 10 days, so say 150,000 active cases? Would be my guess.
The funnel will have more people in the later parts of the infection cycle right now so if there's 15k new infections per day it means the total number of infected is probably 200-250k as 10 days ago 25k people per day were getting infected.
Accepted, but still lower than the ONS, for the reasons discussed upthread.
The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.
Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.
A Pacific future awaits our Sceptered Isle. This seems to be the vision and I'd love to be able to share it. I have no great emotional attachment to our current bleak loco in the North Atlantic. Dreaming of far-flung places can warm the cockles, especially on such a winter's day, but I fear it is dreaming. My sense is that some of our more cerebral Leavers (plus Philip) are casting round for a Brexit rationale that is more elevated than simple antipathy to the EU and dislike of free movement. Which is fair enough actually. I'd probably be doing the same.
Its not a dream, the UK has been trading with far flung places for centuries already.
The future is in the Pacific not the Atlantic. That's where all the world's economic growth is coming from.
Pro-Europeans like to make out that the EU is the world's biggest trade area but it isn't under any definition. When we join the CPTPP the European Union won't even be on the podium, it would be the 4th tradezone in the world.
Well we're in the Atlantic so let's hope a bit of the future ends up here too. I'm sure it will.
We can be honorary members of the Pacific.
Won't be the first time we've had major relations and trade with the Pacific.
Indeed not. One thinks back fondly to when a third of the map was red and under the wing of good Queen Vic.
Rule Britannia, Britannia Rules the Waves, Britain never never never ... Can do that again (except in the dreams of Brexit nostalgics).
Why do you feel that trading with Japan, Singapore and the other growing economies of Southeast Asia requires Imperialism? 🤔
Its a rather strange and tragic version of racism you display there, only white Europeans are good enough to be traded with - to trade with the savages at the other side of the world would require Empire rather than cash in your eyes?
I inject some realism when Planet Brexit gets too spacey. Somebody has to. Can we trade more with faraway places? Yes. Is our future more Asia-Pacific than European? No.
You think its realistic to suggest we won't trade with Asia Pacific nations more in the future? What is this the 1950s?
Do you think its unrealistic to have "Made in China" products in our home. Of course trade can be global. Already today pre-Brexit the EU is a minority of our trade - that's before we join the CPTPP, before Brexit and before the forthcoming faster economic growth in the Asia Pacific region.
It's adorable! That cold blooded gecko (or whatever it is) is loving it too I think.
A chameleon. And a big one. Perhaps a Parson`s chameleon.
Not a chameleon, I think - the feet don't show opposable digits, and not a gecko, no suckers. Looks like an iguanid of some kind, perhaps a Green Iguana.
Yes, I think you`re right . Nice one.
I`ve seen a few chameleons in Africa. They are brilliant - like little robots. One of my ambitions is to see a nano chameleon in Madagascar. See below. Will take a bit of finding though.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
I'm confident of the first daily cases in 4 figures sometime next week (mon or tues most likely). It might still be 9,999, but will be a big psychological step. I'd personally want new cases below a 1000 before any significant opening (i.e. approaching normal), but I'm fairly sure schools will be March 8th, and I heard rumours of Uni's too (albeit with students expected to travel early and be tested before the 8th).
Yes the 'daily cases below 1,000' (or national 7 day rate 10 per 100,000) is likely to be required before any significant relaxation - might get there by Easter
So 1/10th of the rate considered acceptable for Tier 1 just 2 months ago is now the starting point for significant relaxation, in a population where vaccination has more or less removed the threat of any healthcare rationing.
If that is where we actually end up as an approach, the government will have vastly overstepped proportionality. Thankfully the current enabling act ends before Easter so they'll have to show a bit of common sense if they don't want to rely on Labour votes to keep it going.
Thing is with vaccines now we shouldn't be aiming for Tier1 - it should be a return to normality. If the pathway there is a longer time in lockdown, and a slower release, but the future is normality (or as near as damn) then its worth it. Tiers were for a world with no vaccines yet...
I suspect the government will be aiming for a Tier 1 type framework in May, then more 'normal' in Sept once the second vaccines for the over 50s plus hopefully at least one for all adults has been done.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
I'm confident of the first daily cases in 4 figures sometime next week (mon or tues most likely). It might still be 9,999, but will be a big psychological step. I'd personally want new cases below a 1000 before any significant opening (i.e. approaching normal), but I'm fairly sure schools will be March 8th, and I heard rumours of Uni's too (albeit with students expected to travel early and be tested before the 8th).
Yes the 'daily cases below 1,000' (or national 7 day rate 10 per 100,000) is likely to be required before any significant relaxation - might get there by Easter
So 1/10th of the rate considered acceptable for Tier 1 just 2 months ago is now the starting point for significant relaxation, in a population where vaccination has more or less removed the threat of any healthcare rationing.
If that is where we actually end up as an approach, the government will have vastly overstepped proportionality. Thankfully the current enabling act ends before Easter so they'll have to show a bit of common sense if they don't want to rely on Labour votes to keep it going.
Thing is with vaccines now we shouldn't be aiming for Tier1 - it should be a return to normality. If the pathway there is a longer time in lockdown, and a slower release, but the future is normality (or as near as damn) then its worth it. Tiers were for a world with no vaccines yet...
You're working on the basis that -
a) the current decline would aggressively reverse if we went to tier 1 (which was pretty damn close to normal life) b) if we carry on, the disease will be eradicated and never come back
If that were clearly true, the massive cost of extended aggressive lockdown could be worth considering. But it's really not in a world where large chunks of the population are immune already.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
I'm confident of the first daily cases in 4 figures sometime next week (mon or tues most likely). It might still be 9,999, but will be a big psychological step. I'd personally want new cases below a 1000 before any significant opening (i.e. approaching normal), but I'm fairly sure schools will be March 8th, and I heard rumours of Uni's too (albeit with students expected to travel early and be tested before the 8th).
I expect in practice few Universities would be able to have many students back in before Easter: mine is already committed to waiting until after. I imagine that international students will have to endure quarantine before the start of the summer term. Let's hope we don't see big outbreaks that happened in October.
I'm rather hoping that I might get a vaccine before having to do any face-to-face, but I don't share Robert's confidence that the supply rate is going to go up so fast so soon. The mood music seems to be that a levelling-off in supply is to last for the rest of the month. We'll see.
Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.
Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.
All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.
Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.
But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.
As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.
2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.
The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
So we can ignore the SAGE 'doomsters', who think the whole thing should go on for ever, even though they hate having us in lockdown?
Good to know.
It`s become clear to me a long time ago that "locking down to protect the NHS from collapsing" is not true. It`s simply not accepted by SAGE, it seems to me. I`m praying that 22 Feb is the day that the roadmap out of this, via specific markers, is laid down so we can keep the government to it.
I absolutely agree, but I have an awful feeling you are going to be disappointed.
The way the government is moving, I think many will look on the roadmap and be appalled. But we shall see.
Member of SAGE was quoted in the Mirror this morning as saying Britain could be more or less Covid free by Christmas. Another was on Radio 4 saying we can ease restrictions when tranmission is in the single thousands - according to the Zoe App it is under 15,000 at the mo.
I'm confident of the first daily cases in 4 figures sometime next week (mon or tues most likely). It might still be 9,999, but will be a big psychological step. I'd personally want new cases below a 1000 before any significant opening (i.e. approaching normal), but I'm fairly sure schools will be March 8th, and I heard rumours of Uni's too (albeit with students expected to travel early and be tested before the 8th).
Yes the 'daily cases below 1,000' (or national 7 day rate 10 per 100,000) is likely to be required before any significant relaxation - might get there by Easter
So 1/10th of the rate considered acceptable for Tier 1 just 2 months ago is now the starting point for significant relaxation, in a population where vaccination has more or less removed the threat of any healthcare rationing.
If that is where we actually end up as an approach, the government will have vastly overstepped proportionality. Thankfully the current enabling act ends before Easter so they'll have to show a bit of common sense if they don't want to rely on Labour votes to keep it going.
Thing is with vaccines now we shouldn't be aiming for Tier1 - it should be a return to normality. If the pathway there is a longer time in lockdown, and a slower release, but the future is normality (or as near as damn) then its worth it. Tiers were for a world with no vaccines yet...
You're working on the basis that -
a) the current decline would aggressively reverse if we went to tier 1 (which was pretty damn close to normal life) b) if we carry on, the disease will be eradicated and never come back
If that were clearly true, the massive cost of extended aggressive lockdown could be worth considering. But it's really not in a world where large chunks of the population are immune already.
In the absence of a fully vaccinated public, then yes if we all went to tier 1 today cases would take off again (see september, december). But the game changer(s) are the vaccines, so its worth it now to be more prudent for a while. The reward at the end is clearer now.
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
It allows Russia to bypass Eastern Europe and continue supplying gas to Western Europe. As it stands the only way to cut off Eastern Europe from gas also results in cutting off extremely profitable Western European markets simultaneously.
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
Then the right way forward would appear to be to build alternative supply lines to those countries, rather than preventing Russia and Germany from pursuing what is on the face of it a legitimate commercial initiative. I know exactly what I would think as a British consumer if another country wanted to stop me getting cheaper power from another country - so I don't see why the Germans should feel any different.
How do you feel as a British consumer having to pay for baseload nuclear electricity at twice the price of domestic tidal? And it is the Whitehall civil servants stopping you getting that cheaper power....
I feel f-ing livid about it - I'm all in on tidal and if someone tells me who to write to that I can influence (seems unlikely as an Englishman living in Scotland), or points me to a petition I can sign, I'll do it.
I still have a feeling that this situation will turn around as Boris seeks a popular policy in Wales - very excited about it WHEN (not if) it happens.
I spoke to the tidal lagoon power lot about making an equity investment several years ago. One of the obvious problems to me was that even if the government signed off on the principle that a tidal lagoon power initiative was a great idea and even greenlit them to run the Swansea scheme, there was no guarantee that the company putting in the legwork for the proof of concept pilot would win the mandate for the larger economic schemes elsewhere.
It needs to be partially nationalised if it’s going to work. Taxpayer taking risk, in exchange for taxpayer getting reward. Not just electricity consumers (not quite the same thing). Old fashioned Tories in Parliament and Treasury mandarins don’t like hearing that sort of thing.
I don't follow on the risk vs reward - what is the price for power generated by the scheme vs the market price?
For Cardiff, it would be in the range £50-55, versus £92.50 for equivalent baseload nuclear. Could be producing in 2030, if we moved forward with planning. Hinkley C (which has an almost identical power output to Cardiff) has cost the taxpayer/consumer £37 billion in subsidies - and still won't be online until at least 2025.
Comparing to wind/solar - where the contracts coming in from 2025 will be c.£40, BUT it is not a dependable supply on any given day (versus tidal, where you can predict to within 1% what the power will be on 11th February 2094. You'll also need to completely replace the whole of that wind/solar installation within c. 30 years. (Nuclear claims 60 - let's see...) The tidal lagoons have a minimum life of 120 years, probably far longer, with replacement turbines needed maybe every 60 years.
Plus the tidal option creates (as acknowledged by BEIS) 57,000 jobs during construction. It's probably nearer 80,00, but hey, getting BEIS to acknowledge that is a start....
@MarqueeMark Perhaps there's a new 'in' for you in the success of the vaccine procurement scheme - I've read that shockwaves are moving around ministerial circles on the speed and efficacy with which that was executed. You could be the Kate Bingham of Tidal - executing a Government mandate to do the pilot and then scale this up, with a greater degree of Government intervention than was envisaged initially. It is the Whitehall blob that killed this - there is more appetite now to bypass that blob.
Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:
1 Come true
AND
2 Given me the fear
One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.
But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
Although in the super long term - which is how Brexit must be judged to have any chance of being deemed a success - a less bloated City could be a good thing. Yes, it pays lots of tax, but it also sucks so much talent and energy and resource and focus out of other (arguably more value added) sectors and it adds enormously to regional inequalities. How many smart young Northerners, for example, who could have stayed up there and worked in high tech manufacturing or renewable energy or medical research - or a hundred other things that could flourish outside London and the South East given the steer - end up instead sitting in a trading floor in EC4 or Canary, or a room in Mayfair, dreaming up "products" to help the crooked rich launder their money and dodge tax etc etc? It's a huge number. Think of the potential wasted. It's the British disease, along with private schools.
You emotional remainers (as distinct the reluctant, pragmatic remainers like me) really struggle to accept that Brexit is already, and always will be, judged as a success by those who voted for it. They are delighted - delighted - that we have left the EU. That`s it.
Does that mean you think it's a success or you can understand why people think it's a success?
Because from my perspective, Brexit looks massively unsuccessful, and I am not as an emotional a Remainer as all that. It's simply that things have turned out pretty much as I expected them to, given that the project was based on assumptions that, while being reasonable in themselves, were never likely to pan out. Same as the Iraq War. I knew from the off that was unlikely to turn out well. It wasn't that I objected to removing a horrible dictator.
The latter : I can understand why people think it's a success.
This is interesting. Would it be fair to say you are an emotional Leaver, who would like Brexit to be a success but hasn't been invested enough in the project at any point to ignore the practical problems with it? But really you would have like to have voted Leave, if only you could have made it add up?
It seems to me this is different from another group of people who voted Remain but are now fully on board and have the same view of Brexit reality as those that voted Leave. I would call those people Leavers.
Farrar was referring to his own estimate of the true amount of infections in the UK right now, (his own esimtate is 750,000), which he said was 75 times higher than it should be.
75 times.
The goalposts are shifting all the time. These men do not want any change to the current arrangements for the foreseeable. At all. And they are the government's advisors.
You keep twisting this. He said transmission needed to be in the single thousands, as I showed above, transmission is self evidently not the same thing as cases. Cases arise as a result of transmission. Just because some hack at the Mail can't tell the difference doesn't mean that the rest of us shouldn't figure it out. Again "Covid Transmission Rate" not cases. If you don't believ me listen to the below.
Also "in the single thousands" is not the same as "1000". In the single thousands != a single thousand.
9000 cases is in the single thousands; 9,999 cases arguably is too, only 10,000 plus is in the tens of thousands. If daily transmission is around 15k currently then we need to reduce it by a third to be in the single thousands.
Comments
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1359881201876664320
For me it's the beating up that is the crime that needs punishing, not the "why".
3 out of 10, must try harder.
I presume that it's this tweet about which you're grumpy, do you think Mr Gye's anecdote is wrong?
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359867916724928521?s=20
Not to mention that it's destroyed other trials we were doing (as in some cases the treatments have stopped) and is going to cause a massive headache for observational studies (on things other than Covid) for years to come.
So, yeah, you are right. The scientists despise the lockdown.
And I'm pretty sure the contracts they have with their actors make that clear.
I don't much like Disney, but I'm utterly unsurprised they've done this.
He said "People will wear mask on the tube and things like that, probably for ever"
- Not generalised
- Not compulsory
- Just an expectation
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1359886632883802121
It's a shame, really; she brought an authentic-feeling physical energy to the role of Cara Dune; the show was better because of her, in a small way.
Plus, foxy. Rowr.
https://twitter.com/RichardClegg522/status/1359876873879252995?s=20
So if one mate was having a tenner on Labour every time Ed led the Gross positives, and another were backing them for a tenner whenever Ed led the NS, the NS backer would have been £270 worse off I guess
If you think politicians want to keep everyone locked down forever and thus limit the politicians' ability to spend other peoples money, then you have a very charitable view of politicians!
https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1359777753977995264?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1359808225412055040
John Edmunds may have said that about masks but he also said we may be free of Covid by Christmas.
Finally, these laws expire on 31 March. Ultimately it will be up to Parliament.
Farrar was referring to his own estimate of the true amount of infections in the UK right now, (his own esimtate is 750,000), which he said was 75 times higher than it should be.
75 times.
The goalposts are shifting all the time. These men do not want any change to the current arrangements for the foreseeable. At all. And they are the government's advisors.
Though if it is Bristol it may have been stormed by rioters.
If the state of mind of the defendant can be used in mitigation then I see no reason why it should not be used the other way. This is particularly true for situations where we see obvious discrimination like the ones you mentioned.
You can't just take the 10k number and say only 10k are currently infected.
Hmmm.
I still have a feeling that this situation will turn around as Boris seeks a popular policy in Wales - very excited about it WHEN (not if) it happens.
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359889598038556682?s=20
Because from my perspective, Brexit looks massively unsuccessful, and I am not as an emotional a Remainer as all that. It's simply that things have turned out pretty much as I expected them to, given that the project was based on assumptions that, while being reasonable in themselves, were never likely to pan out. Same as the Iraq War. I knew from the off that was unlikely to turn out well. It wasn't that I objected to removing a horrible dictator.
https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1359777753977995264?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
Might be of interest. And I entirely agree with you re tidal power.
It needs to be partially nationalised if it’s going to work. Taxpayer taking risk, in exchange for taxpayer getting reward. Not just electricity consumers (not quite the same thing). Old fashioned Tories in Parliament and Treasury mandarins don’t like hearing that sort of thing.
https://twitter.com/OdedRechavi/status/1359594706200637442
Mind, I expect Boris Johnson's contemporaries have similar feelings!
I find agnostics more strange.
If that is where we actually end up as an approach, the government will have vastly overstepped proportionality. Thankfully the current enabling act ends before Easter so they'll have to show a bit of common sense if they don't want to rely on Labour votes to keep it going.
Comparing to wind/solar - where the contracts coming in from 2025 will be c.£40, BUT it is not a dependable supply on any given day (versus tidal, where you can predict to within 1% what the power will be on 11th February 2094. You'll also need to completely replace the whole of that wind/solar installation within c. 30 years. (Nuclear claims 60 - let's see...) The tidal lagoons have a minimum life of 120 years, probably far longer, with replacement turbines needed maybe every 60 years.
Plus the tidal option creates (as acknowledged by BEIS) 57,000 jobs during construction. It's probably nearer 80,00, but hey, getting BEIS to acknowledge that is a start....
Do you think its unrealistic to have "Made in China" products in our home. Of course trade can be global. Already today pre-Brexit the EU is a minority of our trade - that's before we join the CPTPP, before Brexit and before the forthcoming faster economic growth in the Asia Pacific region.
I`ve seen a few chameleons in Africa. They are brilliant - like little robots. One of my ambitions is to see a nano chameleon in Madagascar. See below. Will take a bit of finding though.
https://newatlas.com/science/nano-chameleon-worlds-smallest-reptile/
a) the current decline would aggressively reverse if we went to tier 1 (which was pretty damn close to normal life)
b) if we carry on, the disease will be eradicated and never come back
If that were clearly true, the massive cost of extended aggressive lockdown could be worth considering. But it's really not in a world where large chunks of the population are immune already.
I'm rather hoping that I might get a vaccine before having to do any face-to-face, but I don't share Robert's confidence that the supply rate is going to go up so fast so soon. The mood music seems to be that a levelling-off in supply is to last for the rest of the month. We'll see.
--AS
It seems to me this is different from another group of people who voted Remain but are now fully on board and have the same view of Brexit reality as those that voted Leave. I would call those people Leavers.
9000 cases is in the single thousands; 9,999 cases arguably is too, only 10,000 plus is in the tens of thousands. If daily transmission is around 15k currently then we need to reduce it by a third to be in the single thousands.