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BREXIT. Undoing (some of) the damage. Part 2: From Principles to Policies – politicalbetting.com

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Charles said:

    eek said:

    Unacceptable.....


    More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.

    HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/11/40-percent-of-staff-at-biggest-uk-care-home-firm-hc-one-have-not-had-covid-vaccine

    How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.

    36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
    Its the gruadian....i am bit a suss that so many haven't supposedly been offered a jab. But either way we can't have that many staff unvaccinated.
    I suspect it was the shift patterns - if they weren't on site when the hit squad visited they didn't get jabbed, and until recently they couldn't book direct. But isn't it slightly irrelevant if all the residents have been jabbed?

    (was just on the phone with one of the owners of HC-One. Kicking myself I forget to ask him :smile: )
    BiB - Perhaps it's not so much of a worry now, but one does wonder why more of an effort wasn't made early on to get these people vaccinated.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    We can, and are, selling to the rest of the world as well as a competitor of the EU. That's what they fear more than anything else.

    This remains total bollocks.

    BMW are not concerned that JLR will outsell them in China.

    Italian Prosecco makers are not frightened of Sparkling White English wine.

    Despite Liz Truss, the French cheese manufacturers are not losing out to Wensleydale.
    And yet they do fear companies coming to the UK for digital and financial services which is why they are trying very hard to tie us into their regulatory orbit.
    We will have to keep an eye on listings. What are you seeing in your corner of it all?
    Asian corporate bond placings for us, but we benefit from being a domestic institution as we've previously discussed. Can't say that I've noticed a drop off or pick up since brexit, but then it's not something that's particularly affected by it one way or another. The South America guys said in a presentation yesterday that they've seen some tentative increases in volume, but I doubt it's related to brexit, more likely to be companies eyeing up cash to invest for a pandemic recovery.
    Interesting. We'll have to look at XETR/ENX/LSE listings in the next 6-18 months.
    Indeed. I think you're right about London losing its "one stop shop" reputation because of a loss of EU equities trading, however it's a really low margin business and aiui the trades are routed via Amsterdam but the people are still here.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Unacceptable.....


    More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.

    HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/11/40-percent-of-staff-at-biggest-uk-care-home-firm-hc-one-have-not-had-covid-vaccine

    How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.

    36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
    Odd story. I wonder if there's some face saving going on. The idea that these workers haven't been offered a vaccine seems utterly ridiculous. If it's true, then heads should role. But my guess is they're fiddling the figures to not offer vaccines to those who won't have it.
    It depends how you define "not been offered".

    My wife's home all staff were offered to register for a hospital appointment last December, she got hers in December on her day off but very few else did. Was that offered? Because I thought so at the time, but she was one of a tiny minority to take up the offer then.

    Most staff got vaccinated when the vaccinators came to the home in January rather than book an appointment themself. Some staff refused, while others were unavailable to come in that day - but the option to go to the hospital on your time off to get it has always been there.

    They're now going through all staff who are unvaccinated and if they're refusing the vaccine still getting them to write a letter putting in writing why they are unable to have or are refusing the vaccine.
    That does sound odd. You'd think working in such a job, you'd go to get a vaccine simply for your own protection.
    Dr Foxy has reported on the surprising number of colleagues on the front line who are unwilling to be jabbed. People in harms way every day and trained medical professionals...
    Vaccine Anecdote II

    Another friend, phlebotomist, saying how many of her BAME colleagues were not getting the jab. Hers is quite a specialist area. And still not.
    On the radio it was reported that certain pastors in some communities were telling congregations not to get vaccines.

    Goodness knows on what pretext.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine Anecdote:

    Friend - mid-fifties, phoned up by GP saying come in for the jab. Why me? Just trying to be pro-active we have spaces to fill.

    That's not an option around here as locally the vaccines are being done at a central location in town.
    I've not heard of it anywhere else but I'm not sure I would have. I'm wondering whether they'll grab/jab my arm next month when I take my mother in for her second jab at 7pm at her local centre (within the hospital).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,241
    edited February 2021

    Greens on 7%.

    I'm sure the result in Scotland will dominate the news, justifiably so, but I wonder if a strong showing by the Greens will be an important development to consider after the elections this May.
    No.

    There have been occasional discussions of whether or not the Greens' time has come at intervals since the 1980s. The reality is that they're a fringe far-left party (basically peddling something like Corbynism, minus much of the foreign policy baggage but plus a deliberate drive to end economic growth) that's mainly of interest to the most eco-conscious segment of the electorate.

    A party that appeals to a thinly spread cohort like that which cannot give it an advantage in any single constituency (Brighton Pavilion being a unique exception, which may very well revert to Labour in any case whenever Dr Lucas decides to retire) leaves the Greens with very little hope under the present electoral system. For the record, their number one target in terms of swing required to capture is Bristol West, which is currently held by Labour with in excess of a 28,000 majority.

    PR is essential if the Greens are ever to prosper - otherwise their only relevance is that they may be a net drain on Labour and Lib Dem vote shares (and that's only the case if we assume that none of the Green vote are actually right-of-centre people, registering a symbolic protest about the state of the planet as distinct from endorsing any of the Greens' solutions, who might otherwise revert to the Tories if the Greens didn't exist.)
    I think that's right. It was inevitable that some of the Corbynites disillusioned with Starmer would move to the Greens - there's nowhere else, really, for them to go. And that could partly explain Labour's lack of progress - they were bound to lose some support from the far left before reagaining some from the centre. I'm actually surprised that the Greens haven't benefited more from Corbyn's defenestration - I feared a lot of young idealists would jump ship and go Green, but there doesn't seem to be that many of them.
    Tend to agree. The Greens mainly generate a randomised wibbling noise.

    I am not *that* clear where the balance is in the Greens between Socialist vs Green. Some Leftists tend to throw charges of "Liberals" at them.

    And I'm not sure if they have much to contribute beyond "more extreme than nearly everybody else" as they paint themselves into a smaller and smaller whilst the mainstream going zero carbon / achieving the C02 reductions we need gradually eats their lunch.

    We have already been on a 3% per year reduction of C02 emissions for a number of years.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    I have been pointing out for a while this is what is happening/will happen but I did point out the major consequence of this.

    The trades will no longer be booked in the UK, so the all tax and transaction revenues will be lost to the UK Exchequer and be a gain for the Netherlanders and other EU countries. If they had moved to Macclesfield, the UK Exchequer would lose no tax receipts.

    Pop quiz hot shots.

    Q1: Which sector in the largest contributor to the UK Exchequer?

    A: The financial services sector.

    Q2: What happens if our clearing transition which ends next summer isn't extended?

    A2: We're more buggered than reluctant Turkish conscript.

    Q3: Have US financial institutions started to fill the gap caused by Brexit?

    A3: Yes, because they've agreed to follow the EU regulations in this area.
    All valid questions and fair answers, however, the EU is asking for dynamic alignment for the UK to be granted equivalence, no other country has been asked for that.

    Also, in terms of revenue equities trading isn't exactly a big deal and it's something that is being completely hollowed out by fintechs. What used to be a reliable generator of revenue is now dominated by startup companies running on negative or zero margins with investor money propping them up, and they're all based here with a few trading licences in Estonia so the majority of tax revenue generated by these guys is in employment which the UK still benefits from.
    As I said it is where the centre of gravity for listings moves that will be interesting for equities. If capital raising on primary and secondary markets is seen as more convenient/easier in the EU then that's where those fintechs et al will go.
    But as you know convenience is just one part of the equation for placings, what we might see is a bunch of larger EU companies offer secondary listings in London once the political heat has died down a bit.
  • kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.

    Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.

    A Pacific future awaits our Sceptered Isle. This seems to be the vision and I'd love to be able to share it. I have no great emotional attachment to our current bleak loco in the North Atlantic. Dreaming of far-flung places can warm the cockles, especially on such a winter's day, but I fear it is dreaming. My sense is that some of our more cerebral Leavers (plus Philip) are casting round for a Brexit rationale that is more elevated than simple antipathy to the EU and dislike of free movement. Which is fair enough actually. I'd probably be doing the same.
    Another one who can only respond on here by just making stuff up. I can only assume you have run out of crayons again today.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210
    Charles said:

    Mango said:

    MaxPB said:



    The EU isn't going to help us do that. You need to come to the realisation that the EU is nothing more than mercantilist organisation. It just signed an investment deal with China that allows Chinese state companies to invest in the EU so that EU countries get access to China's low cost worker base. Essentially it allows Siemens to get political dissident slave labour to make their dishwashers, import them to Germany screw on the casing and slap a made on Germany sticker on it.

    That's the EU we're dealing with, not this idealised one you seem to think will stand up to human rights abuses in China or stand up to Russia for spurious prison sentences for political opposition leaders.

    The value of a better EU deal falls everyday for the UK, in a decade our relationship with the EU is going to be completely different than what it is today and reflect the transactional nature of the EU. Westminster and Washington are learning now that the EU won't take any economic burden or hardship to further the cause of human rights reforms in China. They aren't our ally, that's the world we're living in.

    Brexiteers before Jan 2021: "The EU is an overbearing would-be empire, insistent on establishing itself as a global foreign policy force, damaging British business through its pursuit of lofty ideals and human rights, never focusing on economic realities."

    Brexiteers after Jan 2021: "The EU is a transactional collection of mercantilist states, willing to sell out all values of decency in the hope of making its widgets more cheaply."
    Can you post links of the former comment?

    Certainly my concern was always that German and French trade interests prevented the EU being as tough on China, Russia and Iran as I believe they should have been
    You voted Leave out of concern for human rights in the Communist and Islamic world?

    NICHE!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    We can, and are, selling to the rest of the world as well as a competitor of the EU. That's what they fear more than anything else.

    This remains total bollocks.

    BMW are not concerned that JLR will outsell them in China.

    Italian Prosecco makers are not frightened of Sparkling White English wine.

    Despite Liz Truss, the French cheese manufacturers are not losing out to Wensleydale.
    And yet they do fear companies coming to the UK for digital and financial services which is why they are trying very hard to tie us into their regulatory orbit.
    We will have to keep an eye on listings. What are you seeing in your corner of it all?
    Asian corporate bond placings for us, but we benefit from being a domestic institution as we've previously discussed. Can't say that I've noticed a drop off or pick up since brexit, but then it's not something that's particularly affected by it one way or another. The South America guys said in a presentation yesterday that they've seen some tentative increases in volume, but I doubt it's related to brexit, more likely to be companies eyeing up cash to invest for a pandemic recovery.
    Interesting. We'll have to look at XETR/ENX/LSE listings in the next 6-18 months.
    Indeed. I think you're right about London losing its "one stop shop" reputation because of a loss of EU equities trading, however it's a really low margin business and aiui the trades are routed via Amsterdam but the people are still here.
    There has nevertheless been a big move.

    eg https://www.thetradenews.com/tp-icap-no-longer-able-to-service-all-eu-clients-as-pandemic-delays-paris-brexit-move/

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Mango said:

    Greens on 7%.

    I'm sure the result in Scotland will dominate the news, justifiably so, but I wonder if a strong showing by the Greens will be an important development to consider after the elections this May.
    Not under FPTP. Except to leave the Tories in permanent power.

    Democracy my foot.
    To paraphrase John O'Farrell, elections are a sacred democratic ritual, the result of generations of blood and struggle, in which the voice of the common man is heard and counted ... then the Tories win :wink:
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Unacceptable.....


    More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.

    HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/11/40-percent-of-staff-at-biggest-uk-care-home-firm-hc-one-have-not-had-covid-vaccine

    How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.

    36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
    Odd story. I wonder if there's some face saving going on. The idea that these workers haven't been offered a vaccine seems utterly ridiculous. If it's true, then heads should role. But my guess is they're fiddling the figures to not offer vaccines to those who won't have it.
    It depends how you define "not been offered".

    My wife's home all staff were offered to register for a hospital appointment last December, she got hers in December on her day off but very few else did. Was that offered? Because I thought so at the time, but she was one of a tiny minority to take up the offer then.

    Most staff got vaccinated when the vaccinators came to the home in January rather than book an appointment themself. Some staff refused, while others were unavailable to come in that day - but the option to go to the hospital on your time off to get it has always been there.

    They're now going through all staff who are unvaccinated and if they're refusing the vaccine still getting them to write a letter putting in writing why they are unable to have or are refusing the vaccine.
    That does sound odd. You'd think working in such a job, you'd go to get a vaccine simply for your own protection.
    Dr Foxy has reported on the surprising number of colleagues on the front line who are unwilling to be jabbed. People in harms way every day and trained medical professionals...
    Vaccine Anecdote II

    Another friend, phlebotomist, saying how many of her BAME colleagues were not getting the jab. Hers is quite a specialist area. And still not.
    On the radio it was reported that certain pastors in some communities were telling congregations not to get vaccines.

    Goodness knows on what pretext.
    Same as snake handling.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    I have been pointing out for a while this is what is happening/will happen but I did point out the major consequence of this.

    The trades will no longer be booked in the UK, so the all tax and transaction revenues will be lost to the UK Exchequer and be a gain for the Netherlanders and other EU countries. If they had moved to Macclesfield, the UK Exchequer would lose no tax receipts.

    Pop quiz hot shots.

    Q1: Which sector in the largest contributor to the UK Exchequer?

    A: The financial services sector.

    Q2: What happens if our clearing transition which ends next summer isn't extended?

    A2: We're more buggered than reluctant Turkish conscript.

    Q3: Have US financial institutions started to fill the gap caused by Brexit?

    A3: Yes, because they've agreed to follow the EU regulations in this area.
    All valid questions and fair answers, however, the EU is asking for dynamic alignment for the UK to be granted equivalence, no other country has been asked for that.

    Also, in terms of revenue equities trading isn't exactly a big deal and it's something that is being completely hollowed out by fintechs. What used to be a reliable generator of revenue is now dominated by startup companies running on negative or zero margins with investor money propping them up, and they're all based here with a few trading licences in Estonia so the majority of tax revenue generated by these guys is in employment which the UK still benefits from.
    As I said it is where the centre of gravity for listings moves that will be interesting for equities. If capital raising on primary and secondary markets is seen as more convenient/easier in the EU then that's where those fintechs et al will go.
    But as you know convenience is just one part of the equation for placings, what we might see is a bunch of larger EU companies offer secondary listings in London once the political heat has died down a bit.
    Yep I think that is probably right.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine Anecdote:

    Friend - mid-fifties, phoned up by GP saying come in for the jab. Why me? Just trying to be pro-active we have spaces to fill.

    That's not an option around here as locally the vaccines are being done at a central location in town.
    I've not heard of it anywhere else but I'm not sure I would have. I'm wondering whether they'll grab/jab my arm next month when I take my mother in for her second jab at 7pm at her local centre (within the hospital).
    They may do if it's a Pfizer centre and they need to use them up, a friend who is my age took his granddad for a vaccine last week and he was offered one. He called his dad to come and get it instead.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,241
  • England in India 2021: Liam Livingstone in Twenty20 squad - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/56023540

    Alex Hales is never playing for England ever again is he.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/feb/11/alex-hales-chance-rejoin-england-t20-setup-india-squad
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    I have been pointing out for a while this is what is happening/will happen but I did point out the major consequence of this.

    The trades will no longer be booked in the UK, so the all tax and transaction revenues will be lost to the UK Exchequer and be a gain for the Netherlanders and other EU countries. If they had moved to Macclesfield, the UK Exchequer would lose no tax receipts.

    Pop quiz hot shots.

    Q1: Which sector in the largest contributor to the UK Exchequer?

    A: The financial services sector.

    Q2: What happens if our clearing transition which ends next summer isn't extended?

    A2: We're more buggered than reluctant Turkish conscript.

    Q3: Have US financial institutions started to fill the gap caused by Brexit?

    A3: Yes, because they've agreed to follow the EU regulations in this area.
    Q4: Who holds all the cards?

    A4: Oops ☹️
    Yeah but...they only had 21. We had loads more.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,674
    edited February 2021

    Amazing picture. You can actually see Scotland splitting away from England.
    Originally Scotland was part of what is now North America (Laurentia) and is from a different continent to England.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iapetus_Suture



  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine Anecdote:

    Friend - mid-fifties, phoned up by GP saying come in for the jab. Why me? Just trying to be pro-active we have spaces to fill.

    You can see how a government with authoritarian tendencies might make the end of lockdown contingent on sufficient people getting vaccines.

    Which could very turn nasty.
    What should the end of lockdown be contingent on if not the one thing that can prevent further lockdowns?
  • TOPPING said:

    Vaccine Anecdote:

    Friend - mid-fifties, phoned up by GP saying come in for the jab. Why me? Just trying to be pro-active we have spaces to fill.

    You can see how a government with authoritarian tendencies might make the end of lockdown contingent on sufficient people getting vaccines.

    Which could very turn nasty.
    ?

    The authoritarian approach would be to make lockdown personal to each individual, based on their vaccine status.

    Lifting lockdown once, say, 70% of people have been vaccinated is a not an unreasonable approach, assuming that numbers are low at that point as well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    I have no vaccine anecdotes to share.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited February 2021
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600


    ://twitter.com/marcuscarslaw1/status/1359839830272802821?s=21
    Amazing picture. You can actually see Scotland splitting away from England.

    Originally Scotland was part of what is now North America (Laurentia) and is from a different continent to England.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iapetus_Suture





    Laurentian exceptionalism might explain much....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,241
    edited February 2021
    TimT said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Unacceptable.....


    More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.

    HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/11/40-percent-of-staff-at-biggest-uk-care-home-firm-hc-one-have-not-had-covid-vaccine

    How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.

    36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
    Odd story. I wonder if there's some face saving going on. The idea that these workers haven't been offered a vaccine seems utterly ridiculous. If it's true, then heads should role. But my guess is they're fiddling the figures to not offer vaccines to those who won't have it.
    It depends how you define "not been offered".

    My wife's home all staff were offered to register for a hospital appointment last December, she got hers in December on her day off but very few else did. Was that offered? Because I thought so at the time, but she was one of a tiny minority to take up the offer then.

    Most staff got vaccinated when the vaccinators came to the home in January rather than book an appointment themself. Some staff refused, while others were unavailable to come in that day - but the option to go to the hospital on your time off to get it has always been there.

    They're now going through all staff who are unvaccinated and if they're refusing the vaccine still getting them to write a letter putting in writing why they are unable to have or are refusing the vaccine.
    That does sound odd. You'd think working in such a job, you'd go to get a vaccine simply for your own protection.
    Dr Foxy has reported on the surprising number of colleagues on the front line who are unwilling to be jabbed. People in harms way every day and trained medical professionals...
    Vaccine Anecdote II

    Another friend, phlebotomist, saying how many of her BAME colleagues were not getting the jab. Hers is quite a specialist area. And still not.
    On the radio it was reported that certain pastors in some communities were telling congregations not to get vaccines.

    Goodness knows on what pretext.
    Same as snake handling.
    Quite probably. For example, there is a remarkable range of 'incorporated' belief (ie syncretistic to those who know the lingo) and cultural forms in smaller independent Black-led churches.

    The same point could be made about other types of congregation, of course, (even CofE !) but may not necessarily affect jabs.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,823
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine Anecdote:

    Friend - mid-fifties, phoned up by GP saying come in for the jab. Why me? Just trying to be pro-active we have spaces to fill.

    That's not an option around here as locally the vaccines are being done at a central location in town.
    I've not heard of it anywhere else but I'm not sure I would have. I'm wondering whether they'll grab/jab my arm next month when I take my mother in for her second jab at 7pm at her local centre (within the hospital).
    They may do if it's a Pfizer centre and they need to use them up, a friend who is my age took his granddad for a vaccine last week and he was offered one. He called his dad to come and get it instead.
    I've heard a similar story relating to the Pfizer vaccines and the need to get them all used once they'd opened them - in Bolton, they rang around the dentists asking for volunteers. Seemed a good idea. [Note - this was a one-off incident, and I have no idea if it represents general policy in Bolton or elsewhere.]
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    edited February 2021
    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine Anecdote:

    Friend - mid-fifties, phoned up by GP saying come in for the jab. Why me? Just trying to be pro-active we have spaces to fill.

    You can see how a government with authoritarian tendencies might make the end of lockdown contingent on sufficient people getting vaccines.

    Which could very turn nasty.
    What should the end of lockdown be contingent on if not the one thing that can prevent further lockdowns?
    It isn't diseases that cause lockdowns, it is governments. We know this because some areas (EG 9 US states) have coronavirus, but they do not have severe lockdowns.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,241
    Cookie said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine Anecdote:

    Friend - mid-fifties, phoned up by GP saying come in for the jab. Why me? Just trying to be pro-active we have spaces to fill.

    That's not an option around here as locally the vaccines are being done at a central location in town.
    I've not heard of it anywhere else but I'm not sure I would have. I'm wondering whether they'll grab/jab my arm next month when I take my mother in for her second jab at 7pm at her local centre (within the hospital).
    They may do if it's a Pfizer centre and they need to use them up, a friend who is my age took his granddad for a vaccine last week and he was offered one. He called his dad to come and get it instead.
    I've heard a similar story relating to the Pfizer vaccines and the need to get them all used once they'd opened them - in Bolton, they rang around the dentists asking for volunteers. Seemed a good idea. [Note - this was a one-off incident, and I have no idea if it represents general policy in Bolton or elsewhere.]
    There's definitely a policy of autonomy to allow getting to 100% usage rather than losing eg 1%.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    It didn't get 45% in 2014 including undecideds 🤦🏻‍♂️. They got 45% in 2014 excluding undecideds.

    I'm sure Yes will be happier being 2% above 45% than No will be being 13% below the 55% they got in 2014. Wonder why you didn't say that?
    As I am not an English nationalist like you with an ideological agenda to break up the Union
    You are an English nationalist with an ideological agenda to preserve the Empire.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,123
    Mango said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    It didn't get 45% in 2014 including undecideds 🤦🏻‍♂️. They got 45% in 2014 excluding undecideds.

    I'm sure Yes will be happier being 2% above 45% than No will be being 13% below the 55% they got in 2014. Wonder why you didn't say that?
    As I am not an English nationalist like you with an ideological agenda to break up the Union
    You are an English nationalist with an ideological agenda to preserve the Empire.


    There is no Empire, if there was Scotland have no MPs let alone its own Parliament too
  • AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Disappointing.
  • Mango said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    It didn't get 45% in 2014 including undecideds 🤦🏻‍♂️. They got 45% in 2014 excluding undecideds.

    I'm sure Yes will be happier being 2% above 45% than No will be being 13% below the 55% they got in 2014. Wonder why you didn't say that?
    As I am not an English nationalist like you with an ideological agenda to break up the Union
    You are an English nationalist with an ideological agenda to preserve the Empire.


    It's odd, HYUFD supports and backs Boris Johnson and the EU deal which is likely to break up the Union by forcing NI to join the Republic.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359867916724928521
    This might explain things... can imagine they have their eye firmly on the target.

    However, this is a situation where really they just now need to crack on and vaccinate as many as they can.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,674
    edited February 2021

    AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Disappointing.
    Yes. Still supply limited, perhaps. Scotland were behind so must have a stockpile to use up.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.

    Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.

    A Pacific future awaits our Sceptered Isle. This seems to be the vision and I'd love to be able to share it. I have no great emotional attachment to our current bleak loco in the North Atlantic. Dreaming of far-flung places can warm the cockles, especially on such a winter's day, but I fear it is dreaming. My sense is that some of our more cerebral Leavers (plus Philip) are casting round for a Brexit rationale that is more elevated than simple antipathy to the EU and dislike of free movement. Which is fair enough actually. I'd probably be doing the same.
    Its not a dream, the UK has been trading with far flung places for centuries already.

    The future is in the Pacific not the Atlantic. That's where all the world's economic growth is coming from.

    Pro-Europeans like to make out that the EU is the world's biggest trade area but it isn't under any definition. When we join the CPTPP the European Union won't even be on the podium, it would be the 4th tradezone in the world.
    Well we're in the Atlantic so let's hope a bit of the future ends up here too. I'm sure it will.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770

    I have no vaccine anecdotes to share.

    Surely if you have an excess you should at least consider sending some to the EU.
  • AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Over 440k without any from NI.

    Easily smashing the Required Run Rate now which should start collapsing every day from now on.
  • Alistair said:
    I'm wondering if there's now an effect caused by England going for the low hanging fruit first (BJ & co going for headline grabbing, easier to attain figures, surely not!) now getting into the grindy, pita stuff

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359867916724928521?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.

    Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.

    A Pacific future awaits our Sceptered Isle. This seems to be the vision and I'd love to be able to share it. I have no great emotional attachment to our current bleak loco in the North Atlantic. Dreaming of far-flung places can warm the cockles, especially on such a winter's day, but I fear it is dreaming. My sense is that some of our more cerebral Leavers (plus Philip) are casting round for a Brexit rationale that is more elevated than simple antipathy to the EU and dislike of free movement. Which is fair enough actually. I'd probably be doing the same.
    Another one who can only respond on here by just making stuff up. I can only assume you have run out of crayons again today.
    Not in the mood for slumming today. Serious posts only.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine Anecdote:

    Friend - mid-fifties, phoned up by GP saying come in for the jab. Why me? Just trying to be pro-active we have spaces to fill.

    You can see how a government with authoritarian tendencies might make the end of lockdown contingent on sufficient people getting vaccines.

    Which could very turn nasty.
    ?

    The authoritarian approach would be to make lockdown personal to each individual, based on their vaccine status.

    Lifting lockdown once, say, 70% of people have been vaccinated is a not an unreasonable approach, assuming that numbers are low at that point as well.
    The authoritarian approach is to make lockdown the 'fault' of those who don't want vaccinations, so that the population turns on the groups that are refusing inoculation.

    Bricks go through windows. Excrement through letter boxes. White feathers in the mail. Tires slashed. That kind of thing

    The kind of thing Bluest Blue would presumably support, in his zeal to make the end of lockdown contingent on vaccination take up.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    MattW said:

    TimT said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Unacceptable.....


    More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.

    HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/11/40-percent-of-staff-at-biggest-uk-care-home-firm-hc-one-have-not-had-covid-vaccine

    How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.

    36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
    Odd story. I wonder if there's some face saving going on. The idea that these workers haven't been offered a vaccine seems utterly ridiculous. If it's true, then heads should role. But my guess is they're fiddling the figures to not offer vaccines to those who won't have it.
    It depends how you define "not been offered".

    My wife's home all staff were offered to register for a hospital appointment last December, she got hers in December on her day off but very few else did. Was that offered? Because I thought so at the time, but she was one of a tiny minority to take up the offer then.

    Most staff got vaccinated when the vaccinators came to the home in January rather than book an appointment themself. Some staff refused, while others were unavailable to come in that day - but the option to go to the hospital on your time off to get it has always been there.

    They're now going through all staff who are unvaccinated and if they're refusing the vaccine still getting them to write a letter putting in writing why they are unable to have or are refusing the vaccine.
    That does sound odd. You'd think working in such a job, you'd go to get a vaccine simply for your own protection.
    Dr Foxy has reported on the surprising number of colleagues on the front line who are unwilling to be jabbed. People in harms way every day and trained medical professionals...
    Vaccine Anecdote II

    Another friend, phlebotomist, saying how many of her BAME colleagues were not getting the jab. Hers is quite a specialist area. And still not.
    On the radio it was reported that certain pastors in some communities were telling congregations not to get vaccines.

    Goodness knows on what pretext.
    Same as snake handling.
    Quite probably. For example, there is a remarkable range of 'incorporated' belief (ie syncretistic to those who know the lingo) and cultural forms in smaller independent Black-led churches.

    The same point could be made about other types of congregation, of course, (even CofE !) but may not necessarily affect jabs.
    I was not thinking so much about syncretism, but something rather more fundamental - snake handling is a willing taking on of deadly risk in order to show your faith in God. God will protect those who believe. Now not taking a vaccine is not so actively taking on risk as picking up a venomous snake, but it is choosing to let God protect you, rather than modern medicine.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    kinabalu said:

    My sense is that some of our more cerebral Leavers (plus Philip) are casting round for a Brexit rationale that is more elevated than simple antipathy to the EU and dislike of free movement. Which is fair enough actually. I'd probably be doing the same.

    A bit like Republican Senators at Trump's impeachment trial.

    They can't realistically defend what happened, or the manner in which it happened, so they complain about process and terminology.

    Unable to defend the current reality of Brexit, they still talk of what might happen in some imagined Panglossian future
  • I can confirm one disappointing side effect to getting your first jab.

    Impatience.

    Impatience to get your second jab and return to normality,
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.

    Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.

    A Pacific future awaits our Sceptered Isle. This seems to be the vision and I'd love to be able to share it. I have no great emotional attachment to our current bleak loco in the North Atlantic. Dreaming of far-flung places can warm the cockles, especially on such a winter's day, but I fear it is dreaming. My sense is that some of our more cerebral Leavers (plus Philip) are casting round for a Brexit rationale that is more elevated than simple antipathy to the EU and dislike of free movement. Which is fair enough actually. I'd probably be doing the same.
    Its not a dream, the UK has been trading with far flung places for centuries already.

    The future is in the Pacific not the Atlantic. That's where all the world's economic growth is coming from.

    Pro-Europeans like to make out that the EU is the world's biggest trade area but it isn't under any definition. When we join the CPTPP the European Union won't even be on the podium, it would be the 4th tradezone in the world.
    Well we're in the Atlantic so let's hope a bit of the future ends up here too. I'm sure it will.
    We can be honorary members of the Pacific.

    Won't be the first time we've had major relations and trade with the Pacific.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    I have no vaccine anecdotes to share.

    You need more, younger relatives.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Disappointing.
    That's an absolutely superb figure from the Scots. Will put the UK over the top for the second day running.

    Kudos.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Alistair said:
    I'm wondering if there's now an effect caused by England going for the low hanging fruit first (BJ & co going for headline grabbing, easier to attain figures, surely not!) now getting into the grindy, pita stuff

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359867916724928521?s=20
    You need to wait 3 weeks after Scotland even catches up to England before you can start your crowing. Actual level of vaccine driven immunity in Scotland is still way behind.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,548
    edited February 2021


    Amazing picture. You can actually see Scotland splitting away from England.

    Originally Scotland was part of what is now North America (Laurentia) and is from a different continent to England.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iapetus_Suture

    Laurentian exceptionalism might explain much....
    Actually only the very top north west part in a line from Torridon up to Durness was part of the Laurentian plate. Other bits including some of the Great Glen come from as far afield as northern Russia.

    Out of interest my tutor at Cardiff was Rod Gayer who was the man who identified and defined the Iapetus suture and ocean back in 1969.
  • AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Over 440k without any from NI.

    Easily smashing the Required Run Rate now which should start collapsing every day from now on.
    Disappointing switch from war metaphor to sporting one.
    Although the same thing for some folk I imagine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,123

    Mango said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    It didn't get 45% in 2014 including undecideds 🤦🏻‍♂️. They got 45% in 2014 excluding undecideds.

    I'm sure Yes will be happier being 2% above 45% than No will be being 13% below the 55% they got in 2014. Wonder why you didn't say that?
    As I am not an English nationalist like you with an ideological agenda to break up the Union
    You are an English nationalist with an ideological agenda to preserve the Empire.


    It's odd, HYUFD supports and backs Boris Johnson and the EU deal which is likely to break up the Union by forcing NI to join the Republic.
    I voted Remain but the UK and EU trade deal actually reduces the border in the Irish Sea which would have been the case with No Deal.

    If Unionists win a majority at Stormont next year they can of course move the border to that with the Republic rather than in the Irish Sea
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Over 440k without any from NI.

    Easily smashing the Required Run Rate now which should start collapsing every day from now on.
    What was the RRR today?

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,678

    AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Disappointing.
    Snow effect?
  • I can confirm one disappointing side effect to getting your first jab.

    Impatience.

    Impatience to get your second jab and return to normality,

    Almost misread that imp*t**nce word for a minute there.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited February 2021

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine Anecdote:

    Friend - mid-fifties, phoned up by GP saying come in for the jab. Why me? Just trying to be pro-active we have spaces to fill.

    You can see how a government with authoritarian tendencies might make the end of lockdown contingent on sufficient people getting vaccines.

    Which could very turn nasty.
    What should the end of lockdown be contingent on if not the one thing that can prevent further lockdowns?
    It isn't diseases that cause lockdowns, it is governments. We know this because some areas (EG 9 US states) have coronavirus, but they do not have severe lockdowns.
    OK, to be precise: high rates of disease usually cause governments to mandate formal lockdowns; if governments don't, then the general public implements a de facto lockdown because most of them don't want to catch the disease or spread it to their friends and family. This has been covered so many times on here - Robert has more data about the US.

    Either way, high rates of disease inevitably cause drastic curtailments in social and economic activity, so we have to crush the disease first - through vaccines, now that we have them - or all we'll get is an end to lockdown in name but not in fact.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Sounds like the rest of the UK is slowing down to wait for Scotland to catch up!

    But seriously 450k for the UK is a very good effort, we'll hit the target and hopefully there rollout will continue fairly evenly across the Union.
  • I can confirm one disappointing side effect to getting your first jab.

    Impatience.

    Impatience to get your second jab and return to normality,

    Almost misread that imp*t**nce word for a minute there.
    Don't worry Pfizer also have a solution to that as well.

  • That's incredible.

    I'm wondering if there's now an effect caused by England going for the low hanging fruit first (BJ & co going for headline grabbing, easier to attain figures, surely not!) now getting into the grindy, pita stuff

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359867916724928521?s=20

    It may be that effect - however, it's pretty childish to frame it in partisan terms. 'Easier to attain figures' = more people protected early and therefore more lives saved. Entirely sensible.
  • maaarsh said:

    Alistair said:
    I'm wondering if there's now an effect caused by England going for the low hanging fruit first (BJ & co going for headline grabbing, easier to attain figures, surely not!) now getting into the grindy, pita stuff

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359867916724928521?s=20
    You need to wait 3 weeks after Scotland even catches up to England before you can start your crowing. Actual level of vaccine driven immunity in Scotland is still way behind.
    You ok hun?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    I have been pointing out for a while this is what is happening/will happen but I did point out the major consequence of this.

    The trades will no longer be booked in the UK, so the all tax and transaction revenues will be lost to the UK Exchequer and be a gain for the Netherlanders and other EU countries. If they had moved to Macclesfield, the UK Exchequer would lose no tax receipts.

    Pop quiz hot shots.

    Q1: Which sector in the largest contributor to the UK Exchequer?

    A: The financial services sector.

    Q2: What happens if our clearing transition which ends next summer isn't extended?

    A2: We're more buggered than reluctant Turkish conscript.

    Q3: Have US financial institutions started to fill the gap caused by Brexit?

    A3: Yes, because they've agreed to follow the EU regulations in this area.
    All valid questions and fair answers, however, the EU is asking for dynamic alignment for the UK to be granted equivalence, no other country has been asked for that.

    Also, in terms of revenue equities trading isn't exactly a big deal and it's something that is being completely hollowed out by fintechs. What used to be a reliable generator of revenue is now dominated by startup companies running on negative or zero margins with investor money propping them up, and they're all based here with a few trading licences in Estonia so the majority of tax revenue generated by these guys is in employment which the UK still benefits from.
    As I said it is where the centre of gravity for listings moves that will be interesting for equities. If capital raising on primary and secondary markets is seen as more convenient/easier in the EU then that's where those fintechs et al will go.
    only if the buyers are there.
  • TimT said:

    AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Over 440k without any from NI.

    Easily smashing the Required Run Rate now which should start collapsing every day from now on.
    What was the RRR today?

    I think from memory yesterdays RRR was 385k so this should knock it down to circa 370-360k.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited February 2021
    That's not a bad thing if it's going to change after Monday to other JCVI groups. After all, making the effort to vaccinate a person in a higher priority group arguably reduces the risk of a death more than a lower priority group.
  • I appreciate this might not appeal to everyone, but I'll enjoy it:

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2021/feb/11/cant-get-you-out-of-my-head-review-adam-curtis-bbc

    I've liked previous stuff by Curtis. I also enjoyed Oliver Stone's The Untold History of the United States which I think would have many of you throwing heavy objects at your TV screens.

    It would be a boring world if we were all the same...
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    TimT said:

    AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Over 440k without any from NI.

    Easily smashing the Required Run Rate now which should start collapsing every day from now on.
    What was the RRR today?

    I think from memory yesterdays RRR was 385k so this should knock it down to circa 370-360k.
    So about 1.5m to go.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    TimT said:

    AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Over 440k without any from NI.

    Easily smashing the Required Run Rate now which should start collapsing every day from now on.
    What was the RRR today?

    388,340
  • Time to crack on with vaccination groups 5 to 9 now, we can get this done by the end of March.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.

    Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.

    A Pacific future awaits our Sceptered Isle. This seems to be the vision and I'd love to be able to share it. I have no great emotional attachment to our current bleak loco in the North Atlantic. Dreaming of far-flung places can warm the cockles, especially on such a winter's day, but I fear it is dreaming. My sense is that some of our more cerebral Leavers (plus Philip) are casting round for a Brexit rationale that is more elevated than simple antipathy to the EU and dislike of free movement. Which is fair enough actually. I'd probably be doing the same.
    Its not a dream, the UK has been trading with far flung places for centuries already.

    The future is in the Pacific not the Atlantic. That's where all the world's economic growth is coming from.

    Pro-Europeans like to make out that the EU is the world's biggest trade area but it isn't under any definition. When we join the CPTPP the European Union won't even be on the podium, it would be the 4th tradezone in the world.
    Well we're in the Atlantic so let's hope a bit of the future ends up here too. I'm sure it will.
    We can be honorary members of the Pacific.

    Won't be the first time we've had major relations and trade with the Pacific.
    Indeed not. One thinks back fondly to when a third of the map was red and under the wing of good Queen Vic.

    Rule Britannia, Britannia Rules the Waves, Britain never never never ... Can do that again (except in the dreams of Brexit nostalgics).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,678

    TimT said:

    AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Over 440k without any from NI.

    Easily smashing the Required Run Rate now which should start collapsing every day from now on.
    What was the RRR today?

    I think from memory yesterdays RRR was 385k so this should knock it down to circa 370-360k.
    I hope the focus on the target, which creditably HMG are clearly going to smash, is not not distracting from he need to crack on with the next groups.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kinabalu said:

    Charles said:

    Mango said:

    MaxPB said:



    The EU isn't going to help us do that. You need to come to the realisation that the EU is nothing more than mercantilist organisation. It just signed an investment deal with China that allows Chinese state companies to invest in the EU so that EU countries get access to China's low cost worker base. Essentially it allows Siemens to get political dissident slave labour to make their dishwashers, import them to Germany screw on the casing and slap a made on Germany sticker on it.

    That's the EU we're dealing with, not this idealised one you seem to think will stand up to human rights abuses in China or stand up to Russia for spurious prison sentences for political opposition leaders.

    The value of a better EU deal falls everyday for the UK, in a decade our relationship with the EU is going to be completely different than what it is today and reflect the transactional nature of the EU. Westminster and Washington are learning now that the EU won't take any economic burden or hardship to further the cause of human rights reforms in China. They aren't our ally, that's the world we're living in.

    Brexiteers before Jan 2021: "The EU is an overbearing would-be empire, insistent on establishing itself as a global foreign policy force, damaging British business through its pursuit of lofty ideals and human rights, never focusing on economic realities."

    Brexiteers after Jan 2021: "The EU is a transactional collection of mercantilist states, willing to sell out all values of decency in the hope of making its widgets more cheaply."
    Can you post links of the former comment?

    Certainly my concern was always that German and French trade interests prevented the EU being as tough on China, Russia and Iran as I believe they should have been
    You voted Leave out of concern for human rights in the Communist and Islamic world?

    NICHE!
    I'm a Whig at heart. We have a responsibility to care for the poor and suffering in our country and the world.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    RobD said:

    I have no vaccine anecdotes to share.

    You need more, younger relatives.
    er, or older ones.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Disappointing.
    Snow effect?

    There are metric tonnes of the stuff in Scotland yet they have posted an absolutely superb figure.

    It's probably diminishing returns effect – England can't officially move on to Groups 5 and 6 until Monday morning I don't think.
  • Time to crack on with vaccination groups 5 to 9 now, we can get this done by the end of March.

    End of March would be very ambitious, but excellent if achieved.

    Don't forget that 5-9 will be more people than 1-4, plus people second doses will be given out in March.
  • Have we discussed Gina Carano today?
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.

    Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.

    A Pacific future awaits our Sceptered Isle. This seems to be the vision and I'd love to be able to share it. I have no great emotional attachment to our current bleak loco in the North Atlantic. Dreaming of far-flung places can warm the cockles, especially on such a winter's day, but I fear it is dreaming. My sense is that some of our more cerebral Leavers (plus Philip) are casting round for a Brexit rationale that is more elevated than simple antipathy to the EU and dislike of free movement. Which is fair enough actually. I'd probably be doing the same.
    Another one who can only respond on here by just making stuff up. I can only assume you have run out of crayons again today.
    Not in the mood for slumming today. Serious posts only.
    You gave up on serious posts long ago. Rather sad really. You have turned into a third rate Scott without the links.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,436
    Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:

    1 Come true

    AND

    2 Given me the fear

    One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.

    But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited February 2021

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine Anecdote:

    Friend - mid-fifties, phoned up by GP saying come in for the jab. Why me? Just trying to be pro-active we have spaces to fill.

    You can see how a government with authoritarian tendencies might make the end of lockdown contingent on sufficient people getting vaccines.

    Which could very turn nasty.
    ?

    The authoritarian approach would be to make lockdown personal to each individual, based on their vaccine status.

    Lifting lockdown once, say, 70% of people have been vaccinated is a not an unreasonable approach, assuming that numbers are low at that point as well.
    The authoritarian approach is to make lockdown the 'fault' of those who don't want vaccinations, so that the population turns on the groups that are refusing inoculation.

    Bricks go through windows. Excrement through letter boxes. White feathers in the mail. Tires slashed. That kind of thing

    The kind of thing Bluest Blue would presumably support, in his zeal to make the end of lockdown contingent on vaccination take up.
    You really do live in a fantasy land, don't you? The UK should have more than enough people willing to take the jab without the need for any kind of coercion, let alone that sort of rubbish. I get quite enough exposure to excrement already just reading your posts.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,551
    edited February 2021
    TimT said:

    MattW said:

    TimT said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Unacceptable.....


    More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.

    HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/11/40-percent-of-staff-at-biggest-uk-care-home-firm-hc-one-have-not-had-covid-vaccine

    How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.

    36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
    Odd story. I wonder if there's some face saving going on. The idea that these workers haven't been offered a vaccine seems utterly ridiculous. If it's true, then heads should role. But my guess is they're fiddling the figures to not offer vaccines to those who won't have it.
    It depends how you define "not been offered".

    My wife's home all staff were offered to register for a hospital appointment last December, she got hers in December on her day off but very few else did. Was that offered? Because I thought so at the time, but she was one of a tiny minority to take up the offer then.

    Most staff got vaccinated when the vaccinators came to the home in January rather than book an appointment themself. Some staff refused, while others were unavailable to come in that day - but the option to go to the hospital on your time off to get it has always been there.

    They're now going through all staff who are unvaccinated and if they're refusing the vaccine still getting them to write a letter putting in writing why they are unable to have or are refusing the vaccine.
    That does sound odd. You'd think working in such a job, you'd go to get a vaccine simply for your own protection.
    Dr Foxy has reported on the surprising number of colleagues on the front line who are unwilling to be jabbed. People in harms way every day and trained medical professionals...
    Vaccine Anecdote II

    Another friend, phlebotomist, saying how many of her BAME colleagues were not getting the jab. Hers is quite a specialist area. And still not.
    On the radio it was reported that certain pastors in some communities were telling congregations not to get vaccines.

    Goodness knows on what pretext.
    Same as snake handling.
    Quite probably. For example, there is a remarkable range of 'incorporated' belief (ie syncretistic to those who know the lingo) and cultural forms in smaller independent Black-led churches.

    The same point could be made about other types of congregation, of course, (even CofE !) but may not necessarily affect jabs.
    I was not thinking so much about syncretism, but something rather more fundamental - snake handling is a willing taking on of deadly risk in order to show your faith in God. God will protect those who believe. Now not taking a vaccine is not so actively taking on risk as picking up a venomous snake, but it is choosing to let God protect you, rather than modern medicine.
    In our society everyone has exactly the same responsibility to find out, inform themselves, get educated about stuff and make a decision. If you transfer your decision to another person like a religious leader that's still your call and your decision. It doesn't take away your freedoms. We are a liberal democracy. People make idiotic decisions. Move on.

  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.

    Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.

    A Pacific future awaits our Sceptered Isle. This seems to be the vision and I'd love to be able to share it. I have no great emotional attachment to our current bleak loco in the North Atlantic. Dreaming of far-flung places can warm the cockles, especially on such a winter's day, but I fear it is dreaming. My sense is that some of our more cerebral Leavers (plus Philip) are casting round for a Brexit rationale that is more elevated than simple antipathy to the EU and dislike of free movement. Which is fair enough actually. I'd probably be doing the same.
    Its not a dream, the UK has been trading with far flung places for centuries already.

    The future is in the Pacific not the Atlantic. That's where all the world's economic growth is coming from.

    Pro-Europeans like to make out that the EU is the world's biggest trade area but it isn't under any definition. When we join the CPTPP the European Union won't even be on the podium, it would be the 4th tradezone in the world.
    Well we're in the Atlantic so let's hope a bit of the future ends up here too. I'm sure it will.
    We can be honorary members of the Pacific.

    Won't be the first time we've had major relations and trade with the Pacific.
    Indeed not. One thinks back fondly to when a third of the map was red and under the wing of good Queen Vic.

    Rule Britannia, Britannia Rules the Waves, Britain never never never ... Can do that again (except in the dreams of Brexit nostalgics).
    Why do you feel that trading with Japan, Singapore and the other growing economies of Southeast Asia requires Imperialism? 🤔

    Its a rather strange and tragic version of racism you display there, only white Europeans are good enough to be traded with - to trade with the savages at the other side of the world would require Empire rather than cash in your eyes?
  • Time to crack on with vaccination groups 5 to 9 now, we can get this done by the end of March.

    End of March would be very ambitious, but excellent if achieved.

    Don't forget that 5-9 will be more people than 1-4, plus people second doses will be given out in March.
    True - and second doses will increase the demand on resources - but it's a huge prize to achieve.

    I think Boris will stick with 30 April target date in the plan though, with a 'private' intention to get it done earlier.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,996
    edited February 2021



    I'm wondering if there's now an effect caused by England going for the low hanging fruit first (BJ & co going for headline grabbing, easier to attain figures, surely not!) now getting into the grindy, pita stuff

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359867916724928521?s=20

    It may be that effect - however, it's pretty childish to frame it in partisan terms. 'Easier to attain figures' = more people protected early and therefore more lives saved. Entirely sensible.
    'it's pretty childish to frame it in partisan terms'

    Lol, have several thousand partisan posts crowing about the EU and Scotland vaccination rate been wiped from the Nabavi memory banks, or did I miss your strictures against them?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210
    Scott_xP said:

    kinabalu said:

    My sense is that some of our more cerebral Leavers (plus Philip) are casting round for a Brexit rationale that is more elevated than simple antipathy to the EU and dislike of free movement. Which is fair enough actually. I'd probably be doing the same.

    A bit like Republican Senators at Trump's impeachment trial.

    They can't realistically defend what happened, or the manner in which it happened, so they complain about process and terminology.

    Unable to defend the current reality of Brexit, they still talk of what might happen in some imagined Panglossian future
    TBF it was only 1/1/21 and we do need to give Leavers considerably more than 6 weeks to assess and adjust and admit they've been sold a pup - especially with this pandemic cluttering up the yard - but I share your pessimism. It will always be "too early to say".
  • Time to crack on with vaccination groups 5 to 9 now, we can get this done by the end of March.

    End of March would be very ambitious, but excellent if achieved.

    Don't forget that 5-9 will be more people than 1-4, plus people second doses will be given out in March.
    True - and second doses will increase the demand on resources - but it's a huge prize to achieve.

    I think Boris will stick with 30 April target date in the plan though, with a 'private' intention to get it done earlier.
    Under promise, over deliver.

    Meanwhile whether its March or April we finish with the over 50s, the EU are promising to vaccinate 70% of over 50s by the end of Summer.
  • Leon said:

    Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:

    1 Come true

    AND

    2 Given me the fear

    One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.

    But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.

    Don't worry, if it is as bad as feared the government will take us back into the EU/Single Market/Customs Union and we can rebuild from there.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,448

    I have no vaccine anecdotes to share.

    I do! Slightly sore arm from yesterdays jab...

    (Is this the most boring post of the day?)
  • Time to crack on with vaccination groups 5 to 9 now, we can get this done by the end of March.

    End of March would be very ambitious, but excellent if achieved.

    Don't forget that 5-9 will be more people than 1-4, plus people second doses will be given out in March.
    True - and second doses will increase the demand on resources - but it's a huge prize to achieve.

    I think Boris will stick with 30 April target date in the plan though, with a 'private' intention to get it done earlier.
    Under promise, over deliver.

    Meanwhile whether its March or April we finish with the over 50s, the EU are promising to vaccinate 70% of over 50s by the end of Summer.
    Britain leading the way as ever! :lol:
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited February 2021
    Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.

    Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.

    All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.

    Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.

    But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.

    As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Leon said:

    Have to confess, the overnight loss of all EU share trading to Amsterdam, is the first bit of Project Fear which has:

    1 Come true

    AND

    2 Given me the fear

    One kinda knew it was coming, but the speed and scale still shocks. It might even make me regret my vote, if only the EU had not behaved with such flailing, malignant incompetence, in recent weeks.

    But, if the City does collapse (quick or slow), we are in deep shit. Massively in debt just as our tax base disappears. Not good. Not good at all.

    The City won't collapse off the back of that. All the major banks, and some, have offices on the continent so they will just shift the execution of trades through there. At the margins, it reverses the trend from the early to mid-2000s where the big banks slashed their regional European offices and concentrated staff in London.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,448

    AlistairM said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359866906707173377
    England more than 30K behind last week. Scotland up 18K.

    Disappointing.
    I pointed to some of the possible reasons yesterday. I think the UK government is paranoid about claiming to have vaccinated the 1-4 groups by the deadline, and as such is making sure they have all been offered at least, at the expense of widely opening up to the next categories. I think this will happen next week, and expect bigger totals to follow.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Have we discussed Gina Carano today?

    Haven't seen any comments but do you want to kick off the debate?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,448

    I can confirm one disappointing side effect to getting your first jab.

    Impatience.

    Impatience to get your second jab and return to normality,

    TBH - the evidence emerging (and will be in public domain officially fairly soon) is that 3 weeks from the first jab will be enough for a young healthy stripling like yourself. 2nd jab will be the icing on the cake.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    MrEd said:

    Have we discussed Gina Carano today?

    Haven't seen any comments but do you want to kick off the debate?
    No longer family viewing, I guess.
    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1359722104988594177
  • I can confirm one disappointing side effect to getting your first jab.

    Impatience.

    Impatience to get your second jab and return to normality,

    TBH - the evidence emerging (and will be in public domain officially fairly soon) is that 3 weeks from the first jab will be enough for a young healthy stripling like yourself. 2nd jab will be the icing on the cake.
    Well I'm BAME and diabetic.

    I'm glad I lost a lot of weight in 2019 and 2020.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,361
    MrEd said:

    Have we discussed Gina Carano today?

    Haven't seen any comments but do you want to kick off the debate?
    Self destructed seems to cover it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    "...deaths are likely to decline more. The fatality trends typically trail behind the trends in diagnosed cases by about three weeks — which means the sharp recent drop in cases is only now starting to affect the death numbers. Over the next two weeks, the number of daily deaths will probably fall below 2,000, Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, predicts, and it could drop below 1,000 by next month.

    We’re slowly building immunity
    The main cause of the decline appears to be that a significant share of people now have at least some immunity to the virus. That also helps explain the global decline in newly diagnosed cases..."


    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/briefing/trump-georgia-obesity-weightloss-nun-covid.html
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2021

    Today's goalpost movement is the date of the roadmap out, according to the Telegraph.

    Ministers are now committing to 'the week of' 22 February' for the roadmap and not 22 February itself.

    All of which puts 08 March school start, hailed by Thompson and others on here, in doubt. In serious doubt.

    Plus SAGE are once again all over the media (John Edmunds etc). desperately trying to pitch in against any relaxations soon, or in some respects at all.

    But of course, many on here will still tell you that the government and SAGE do not want to keep you in lockdown a MINUTE longer than they have to.

    As the days go by, we realise more and more that the notion the people who are controlling our lives actually hate it is simply not true. Not true at all.

    No it doesn't. The government announced a 2 week gap between the roadmap and the schools reopening on the 8th.

    2 weeks before Thursday 08 March is not Monday 22 February, it is Thursday 25th. The roadmap could be finalised on the 22nd and published on the 24th and still be over a fortnight before the 8th.

    The idea any parents would accept schools being closed forever for no good reason is absolute insanity. It won't happen.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,448

    Alistair said:
    I'm wondering if there's now an effect caused by England going for the low hanging fruit first (BJ & co going for headline grabbing, easier to attain figures, surely not!) now getting into the grindy, pita stuff

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359867916724928521?s=20
    I'm certain this is the case. At Bath yesterday they wanted to be "dragging them in off the streets"*, and were not busy.

    * Quote from a member of staff there.
This discussion has been closed.