No matter that this may well be the first signs of a kick back against the SNP internecine war that seems to be making daily headlines
SNP +1 is a kick back against the SNP?
The increase in the conservative vote seems to be against the trend
And we do not agree on Independence, but then my family have deep ties to our Scottish family and the union
The increase in the Tory vote seems to be primarily coming at the expense of other unionists not nationalists.
Plus its a bit of bouncing around at numbers that we're familiar with for years now.
There's no evidence yet of a nationalist collapse happening. I would imagine the SNP would be quite satisfied, not upset, to get 54% of the FPTP vote in May.
I did not suggest a collapse but just the increase in the conservative figures are rather unexpected
This is a really interesting article re. UK and Japan. Fascinating to see such a swift switch in strategy away from China..
People who read PB will know a lot of this already, it's been pointed out by myself and others that the UK is looking eastwards just as Biden is doing the same. Our presence in the Pacific will be a huge disruption to Chinese ambitions and ideally we can bring Biden to the table for the CPTPP on the basis of cock blocking China in APAC to help him prove to Americans that he is serious about halting China.
If the UK can join the CPTPP and get the USA back to CPTPP too then that would be a sweep shot for six, a three pointer, a try, a touchdown, a bicycle kick goal and a home run all wrapped into one.
The reality is that... people are split on the issue?
Or does this person think that 37% in favour translates to an overwhelming majority viewpoint?
More likely that 26% against on a single issue translates as a minority viewpoint. As it does.
Given the number of "don't knows" and "no opinions", could just be one that isn't much in the public eye at the moment. The question is what happens if this becomes a major issue, say if the governing party has a massive internal spat over it during an election campaign, and it turns out that support or opposition doesn't break down neatly along pre-existing party lines.
It’s definitely been out of the public eye, have heard nary a mention of the GRA up here.
I'm sure the result in Scotland will dominate the news, justifiably so, but I wonder if a strong showing by the Greens will be an important development to consider after the elections this May.
No.
There have been occasional discussions of whether or not the Greens' time has come at intervals since the 1980s. The reality is that they're a fringe far-left party (basically peddling something like Corbynism, minus much of the foreign policy baggage but plus a deliberate drive to end economic growth) that's mainly of interest to the most eco-conscious segment of the electorate.
A party that appeals to a thinly spread cohort like that which cannot give it an advantage in any single constituency (Brighton Pavilion being a unique exception, which may very well revert to Labour in any case whenever Dr Lucas decides to retire) leaves the Greens with very little hope under the present electoral system. For the record, their number one target in terms of swing required to capture is Bristol West, which is currently held by Labour with in excess of a 28,000 majority.
PR is essential if the Greens are ever to prosper - otherwise their only relevance is that they may be a net drain on Labour and Lib Dem vote shares (and that's only the case if we assume that none of the Green vote are actually right-of-centre people, registering a symbolic protest about the state of the planet as distinct from endorsing any of the Greens' solutions, who might otherwise revert to the Tories if the Greens didn't exist.)
I think that's right. It was inevitable that some of the Corbynites disillusioned with Starmer would move to the Greens - there's nowhere else, really, for them to go. And that could partly explain Labour's lack of progress - they were bound to lose some support from the far left before reagaining some from the centre. I'm actually surprised that the Greens haven't benefited more from Corbyn's defenestration - I feared a lot of young idealists would jump ship and go Green, but there doesn't seem to be that many of them.
No matter that this may well be the first signs of a kick back against the SNP internecine war that seems to be making daily headlines
SNP +1 is a kick back against the SNP?
The increase in the conservative vote seems to be against the trend
And we do not agree on Independence, but then my family have deep ties to our Scottish family and the union
The increase in the Tory vote seems to be primarily coming at the expense of other unionists not nationalists.
Plus its a bit of bouncing around at numbers that we're familiar with for years now.
There's no evidence yet of a nationalist collapse happening. I would imagine the SNP would be quite satisfied, not upset, to get 54% of the FPTP vote in May.
I did not suggest a collapse but just the increase in the conservative figures are rather unexpected
Is it really?
Been good news with the vaccine drive. Unionists returning to the Tories (at a rate the Tories have been at or around for a few years) doesn't seem too surprising to me.
SavantaComres had the Tories on 23% in October, their poll before that had them on 24%, so them being back to 23% now isn't really that odd.
Well I voted Leave but would agree with 95% of what is an excellent article. Those who dismiss it as the rantings of a rabid remainer are just wrong but shows how extreme some peoples view on the EU are.
Just going to have a wild stab at this (after all I am not paid to be a journalist or martial the relevant facts like Peston) but is it not just possible that the increase in the number of people in hospital in January was the result of the explosive growth of a much more transmissible variant in December resulting in a very much larger number of cases despite the restrictions then in place?
I'm sure the result in Scotland will dominate the news, justifiably so, but I wonder if a strong showing by the Greens will be an important development to consider after the elections this May.
No.
There have been occasional discussions of whether or not the Greens' time has come at intervals since the 1980s. The reality is that they're a fringe far-left party (basically peddling something like Corbynism, minus much of the foreign policy baggage but plus a deliberate drive to end economic growth) that's mainly of interest to the most eco-conscious segment of the electorate.
A party that appeals to a thinly spread cohort like that which cannot give it an advantage in any single constituency (Brighton Pavilion being a unique exception, which may very well revert to Labour in any case whenever Dr Lucas decides to retire) leaves the Greens with very little hope under the present electoral system. For the record, their number one target in terms of swing required to capture is Bristol West, which is currently held by Labour with in excess of a 28,000 majority.
PR is essential if the Greens are ever to prosper - otherwise their only relevance is that they may be a net drain on Labour and Lib Dem vote shares (and that's only the case if we assume that none of the Green vote are actually right-of-centre people, registering a symbolic protest about the state of the planet as distinct from endorsing any of the Greens' solutions, who might otherwise revert to the Tories if the Greens didn't exist.)
I think that's right. It was inevitable that some of the Corbynites disillusioned with Starmer would move to the Greens - there's nowhere else, really, for them to go. And that could partly explain Labour's lack of progress - they were bound to lose some support from the far left before reagaining some from the centre. I'm actually surprised that the Greens haven't benefited more from Corbyn's defenestration - I feared a lot of young idealists would jump ship and go Green, but there doesn't seem to be that many of them.
That may be because there aren't that many young idealists - in the general population, as distinct from noisy activists on Twitter - to begin with. I think that the amplification of age-related voting patterns in the UK - this vast generational difference we now see, from ultra-Labour amongst the student age bracket to ultra-Tory amongst the retired - is entirely the product of economics. The young lack resources that they want, the old have resources that they demand be protected (from the young, except for their own offspring who can have whatever's left after they've died.) Simple as that.
Just going to have a wild stab at this (after all I am not paid to be a journalist or martial the relevant facts like Peston) but is it not just possible that the increase in the number of people in hospital in January was the result of the explosive growth of a much more transmissible variant in December resulting in a very much larger number of cases despite the restrictions then in place?
Will we ever know?
Whatever the answer, it was always clear that Johnson's 'save xmas' policy was a mess and potentially a disaster.
Just going to have a wild stab at this (after all I am not paid to be a journalist or martial the relevant facts like Peston) but is it not just possible that the increase in the number of people in hospital in January was the result of the explosive growth of a much more transmissible variant in December resulting in a very much larger number of cases despite the restrictions then in place?
The BBC piece itself appears to lean, whilst emphasizing that it's difficult to disentangle several likely contributory factors, towards pinning it on the Kent Plague.
EDIT: although I think most of us would assume that the diddling around over Christmas can't have helped - the number of people who met up at Christmas who wouldn't have done if the rules were tighter must be greater than zero, but it's difficult to put a value on it.
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
The EU have abandoned the western alliance and are seeking to be the 21st century non-aligned movement.
No. The East Politics thing goes back to Bismarck - Russia as an ally etc.
The gas issue has been going on since long before the Wall fell. Russian gas pipelines to Europe have a long history...
I was involved in a competing gas pipeline across the Caspian for a while. Until Shell decided it wanted to take the gas from 1,000km further east, with no increase in the gas price on offer. And then the Turkmenbashi asked for an "advance" of $500 million.
No matter that this may well be the first signs of a kick back against the SNP internecine war that seems to be making daily headlines
SNP +1 is a kick back against the SNP?
The increase in the conservative vote seems to be against the trend
And we do not agree on Independence, but then my family have deep ties to our Scottish family and the union
The increase in the Tory vote seems to be primarily coming at the expense of other unionists not nationalists.
Plus its a bit of bouncing around at numbers that we're familiar with for years now.
There's no evidence yet of a nationalist collapse happening. I would imagine the SNP would be quite satisfied, not upset, to get 54% of the FPTP vote in May.
I did not suggest a collapse but just the increase in the conservative figures are rather unexpected
Is it really?
Been good news with the vaccine drive. Unionists returning to the Tories (at a rate the Tories have been at or around for a few years) doesn't seem too surprising to me.
SavantaComres had the Tories on 23% in October, their poll before that had them on 24%, so them being back to 23% now isn't really that odd.
The Tories only got 22% in 2016 so are actually up on the last Holyrood elections on that poll, it is SLab who need their new leader to regain votes lost to the SNP
I'm sure the result in Scotland will dominate the news, justifiably so, but I wonder if a strong showing by the Greens will be an important development to consider after the elections this May.
No.
There have been occasional discussions of whether or not the Greens' time has come at intervals since the 1980s. The reality is that they're a fringe far-left party (basically peddling something like Corbynism, minus much of the foreign policy baggage but plus a deliberate drive to end economic growth) that's mainly of interest to the most eco-conscious segment of the electorate.
A party that appeals to a thinly spread cohort like that which cannot give it an advantage in any single constituency (Brighton Pavilion being a unique exception, which may very well revert to Labour in any case whenever Dr Lucas decides to retire) leaves the Greens with very little hope under the present electoral system. For the record, their number one target in terms of swing required to capture is Bristol West, which is currently held by Labour with in excess of a 28,000 majority.
PR is essential if the Greens are ever to prosper - otherwise their only relevance is that they may be a net drain on Labour and Lib Dem vote shares (and that's only the case if we assume that none of the Green vote are actually right-of-centre people, registering a symbolic protest about the state of the planet as distinct from endorsing any of the Greens' solutions, who might otherwise revert to the Tories if the Greens didn't exist.)
I think that's right. It was inevitable that some of the Corbynites disillusioned with Starmer would move to the Greens - there's nowhere else, really, for them to go. And that could partly explain Labour's lack of progress - they were bound to lose some support from the far left before reagaining some from the centre. I'm actually surprised that the Greens haven't benefited more from Corbyn's defenestration - I feared a lot of young idealists would jump ship and go Green, but there doesn't seem to be that many of them.
People sometimes overthink politics.
The simple fact is that there was from 2010-2015 a massive Lib Dem -> UKIP swing.
The reason is that the Lib Dems until 2010 were a receptacle for "none of the above" or "other" or "a pox on both your houses" voters. The idea that every Lib Dem voter was an orange booker, or was into the difference between voting systems, or any other nonsense was ridiculous - many just wanted to say no to the Tories and no to Labour so voted LD by default.
After the Lib Dems died post coalition, that pox on both your houses vote went to UKIP in 2015.
2017 and 2019 especially saw an increasing polarisation so that pox vote was divided between Labour and the Tories as people voted to stop the other, worse evil in their eyes whichever it may be.
The end of Corbynism may see a return to the "none of the above" vote. But UKIP have joined the Lib Dems in being a Norwegian Blue so where does that vote go?
The Greens. 2024's none of the above party potentially.
Just going to have a wild stab at this (after all I am not paid to be a journalist or martial the relevant facts like Peston) but is it not just possible that the increase in the number of people in hospital in January was the result of the explosive growth of a much more transmissible variant in December resulting in a very much larger number of cases despite the restrictions then in place?
Will we ever know?
Whatever the answer, it was always clear that Johnson's 'save xmas' policy was a mess and potentially a disaster.
Wasnt everybody wanting to relax for 4 days at christmas? What changes did the SNP do? Anything different? Labour Wales?
All families I know behaved sensibly.
What I do see is people ... heaven forfend people like you ... people playing petty politics in the midst of a very difficult situation.
And the government can fill up a water trough and take its horses there, but it can't make them drink.
This article is just the view of a bitter remainer who wants to rejoin. Erasmus for example was incredibly expensive and many of the universities involved were second rate at best. If it's replacement is as touted it will be cheaper and offer far more opportunities to British students.
It is anything but.
Wake up, smell the coffee...oh wait the supermarket shelves are out of EU processed coffee.
That's fantastic news!
Perhaps we can start processing coffee in African instead of screwing them over to protect German coffee processing companies?
Peston has offered no insights whatsoever into Covid.
I'm not sure his total insights into UK politics over the past decade amount to much more. He'd get relentlessly pilloried if he were just a poster on here.
The world ideally needs a widget to put Peston on "ignore". Until developed, you'll just have to do it manually...
I'm sure the result in Scotland will dominate the news, justifiably so, but I wonder if a strong showing by the Greens will be an important development to consider after the elections this May.
No.
There have been occasional discussions of whether or not the Greens' time has come at intervals since the 1980s. The reality is that they're a fringe far-left party (basically peddling something like Corbynism, minus much of the foreign policy baggage but plus a deliberate drive to end economic growth) that's mainly of interest to the most eco-conscious segment of the electorate.
A party that appeals to a thinly spread cohort like that which cannot give it an advantage in any single constituency (Brighton Pavilion being a unique exception, which may very well revert to Labour in any case whenever Dr Lucas decides to retire) leaves the Greens with very little hope under the present electoral system. For the record, their number one target in terms of swing required to capture is Bristol West, which is currently held by Labour with in excess of a 28,000 majority.
PR is essential if the Greens are ever to prosper - otherwise their only relevance is that they may be a net drain on Labour and Lib Dem vote shares (and that's only the case if we assume that none of the Green vote are actually right-of-centre people, registering a symbolic protest about the state of the planet as distinct from endorsing any of the Greens' solutions, who might otherwise revert to the Tories if the Greens didn't exist.)
I think that's right. It was inevitable that some of the Corbynites disillusioned with Starmer would move to the Greens - there's nowhere else, really, for them to go. And that could partly explain Labour's lack of progress - they were bound to lose some support from the far left before reagaining some from the centre. I'm actually surprised that the Greens haven't benefited more from Corbyn's defenestration - I feared a lot of young idealists would jump ship and go Green, but there doesn't seem to be that many of them.
People sometimes overthink politics.
The simple fact is that there was from 2010-2015 a massive Lib Dem -> UKIP swing.
The reason is that the Lib Dems until 2010 were a receptacle for "none of the above" or "other" or "a pox on both your houses" voters. The idea that every Lib Dem voter was an orange booker, or was into the difference between voting systems, or any other nonsense was ridiculous - many just wanted to say no to the Tories and no to Labour so voted LD by default.
After the Lib Dems died post coalition, that pox on both your houses vote went to UKIP in 2015.
2017 and 2019 especially saw an increasing polarisation so that pox vote was divided between Labour and the Tories as people voted to stop the other, worse evil in their eyes whichever it may be.
The end of Corbynism may see a return to the "none of the above" vote. But UKIP have joined the Lib Dems in being a Norwegian Blue so where does that vote go?
The Greens. 2024's none of the above party potentially.
Indeed. And the Lib Dem 2010 vote was always artificially inflated by being the only party to oppose the Iraq war. The single biggest political issue of the noughties. Thus swelling the ranks of the neither of the above.
The EU isn't going to help us do that. You need to come to the realisation that the EU is nothing more than mercantilist organisation. It just signed an investment deal with China that allows Chinese state companies to invest in the EU so that EU countries get access to China's low cost worker base. Essentially it allows Siemens to get political dissident slave labour to make their dishwashers, import them to Germany screw on the casing and slap a made on Germany sticker on it.
That's the EU we're dealing with, not this idealised one you seem to think will stand up to human rights abuses in China or stand up to Russia for spurious prison sentences for political opposition leaders.
The value of a better EU deal falls everyday for the UK, in a decade our relationship with the EU is going to be completely different than what it is today and reflect the transactional nature of the EU. Westminster and Washington are learning now that the EU won't take any economic burden or hardship to further the cause of human rights reforms in China. They aren't our ally, that's the world we're living in.
Brexiteers before Jan 2021: "The EU is an overbearing would-be empire, insistent on establishing itself as a global foreign policy force, damaging British business through its pursuit of lofty ideals and human rights, never focusing on economic realities."
Brexiteers after Jan 2021: "The EU is a transactional collection of mercantilist states, willing to sell out all values of decency in the hope of making its widgets more cheaply."
Can you post links of the former comment?
Certainly my concern was always that German and French trade interests prevented the EU being as tough on China, Russia and Iran as I believe they should have been
The EU isn't going to help us do that. You need to come to the realisation that the EU is nothing more than mercantilist organisation. It just signed an investment deal with China that allows Chinese state companies to invest in the EU so that EU countries get access to China's low cost worker base. Essentially it allows Siemens to get political dissident slave labour to make their dishwashers, import them to Germany screw on the casing and slap a made on Germany sticker on it.
That's the EU we're dealing with, not this idealised one you seem to think will stand up to human rights abuses in China or stand up to Russia for spurious prison sentences for political opposition leaders.
The value of a better EU deal falls everyday for the UK, in a decade our relationship with the EU is going to be completely different than what it is today and reflect the transactional nature of the EU. Westminster and Washington are learning now that the EU won't take any economic burden or hardship to further the cause of human rights reforms in China. They aren't our ally, that's the world we're living in.
Brexiteers before Jan 2021: "The EU is an overbearing would-be empire, insistent on establishing itself as a global foreign policy force, damaging British business through its pursuit of lofty ideals and human rights, never focusing on economic realities."
Brexiteers after Jan 2021: "The EU is a transactional collection of mercantilist states, willing to sell out all values of decency in the hope of making its widgets more cheaply."
Can you post links of the former comment?
Certainly my concern was always that German and French trade interests prevented the EU being as tough on China, Russia and Iran as I believe they should have been
The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.
Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.
The EU isn't going to help us do that. You need to come to the realisation that the EU is nothing more than mercantilist organisation. It just signed an investment deal with China that allows Chinese state companies to invest in the EU so that EU countries get access to China's low cost worker base. Essentially it allows Siemens to get political dissident slave labour to make their dishwashers, import them to Germany screw on the casing and slap a made on Germany sticker on it.
That's the EU we're dealing with, not this idealised one you seem to think will stand up to human rights abuses in China or stand up to Russia for spurious prison sentences for political opposition leaders.
The value of a better EU deal falls everyday for the UK, in a decade our relationship with the EU is going to be completely different than what it is today and reflect the transactional nature of the EU. Westminster and Washington are learning now that the EU won't take any economic burden or hardship to further the cause of human rights reforms in China. They aren't our ally, that's the world we're living in.
Brexiteers before Jan 2021: "The EU is an overbearing would-be empire, insistent on establishing itself as a global foreign policy force, damaging British business through its pursuit of lofty ideals and human rights, never focusing on economic realities."
Brexiteers after Jan 2021: "The EU is a transactional collection of mercantilist states, willing to sell out all values of decency in the hope of making its widgets more cheaply."
Can you post links of the former comment?
Certainly my concern was always that German and French trade interests prevented the EU being as tough on China, Russia and Iran as I believe they should have been
Given that we were unable to influence the EU to be as strong as I wanted, at least the UK can independently take a firm position on Chinese (and other) human rights abuses
1) Peston: Peston tends to be pretty good at reporting what politicans are saying off the record, and what the latest thinking of the pols on various issues is. His understanding of how cause (a) leads to effect (b) isn't always that great, but he does have ears in useful places. When he's in braodcast mood you just have to separate what he knows about from what he doesn't.
2) Starmer: 'Labour is calling for all international arrivals to quarantine in hotels' - I'm not actually paying that much attention to what policy is on any given day, but isn't this what the government are attempting to implement?
3) I went for a walk with a Guardianista-Remainer type friend of mine last night. His view was that Brexit was actually going ok, bar a few teething troubles which would get resolved. He was also of the view that we would just have to get used to less cross-channel trade in food, and that we would have to eat a lot more of what we used to export - in 12 months time we'll all be sick of prime steak, langoustines and lobster thermidore every night. [Note that this was in the context of a cheerful conversation, not hard-headed analysis, and should be treated no more seriously than pre-Brexit laments of prosecco shortages.]
The EU provided crowd control training to specialist Myanmar police units alleged to have been involved in a violent crackdown on pro-democracy protesters, but claims it shared defensive techniques only due to concerns about possible human rights abuses.
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.
Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.
Of course we want to have dealings with the EU. But only on terms that make sense for us.
If those terms aren’t available (the reasons why don’t matter) then we will look elsewhere
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
Yes we can grow our own now while we have high case numbers but as case numbers get stomped out the risk comes from the border (like the Spanish holidays importation of the virus last summer).
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.
36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
Odd story. I wonder if there's some face saving going on. The idea that these workers haven't been offered a vaccine seems utterly ridiculous. If it's true, then heads should role. But my guess is they're fiddling the figures to not offer vaccines to those who won't have it.
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.
Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.
Of course we want to have dealings with the EU. But only on terms that make sense for us.
If those terms aren’t available (the reasons why don’t matter) then we will look elsewhere
Yes, the EUphiles on here want the one way street to resume and to put the UK back into EU's regulatory and foreign policy orbit as a pretext to rejoining a few years down the line. It's extremely transparent.
What we're all asking for is a realistic assessment of what kind of relationship the EU wants with the UK, so far all the evidence is of a transactional one which many of us predicted almost 5 years ago after the leave vote.
That means we must get back what we put in, if that's not going to happen then a reassessment of the existing deal is in order to extricate ourselves further as time goes on. Hollow out more of the non-trade parts of the deal to make it an essentially barebones trade deal with no real alliance beyond trade.
Ultimately the EU has little to nothing to offer us beyond being able to sell them stuff. We can, and are, selling to the rest of the world as well as a competitor of the EU. That's what they fear more than anything else.
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
The issue would be, that even if a great deal of money and time is spent on having the alternate supplies up and running and storage.... Putin turns off the pipeline, you have x days of storage to respond.
LNG supply chains don't respond well to interruptions - so the production facilities are setup to match demand, much more closely than with oil. Just switching supplier at the scale of Germany (say) isn't doable without a lot of prior notice
Unbelievable. How can we even think about having more than just a simple trading agreement with the EU.
I don't really understand why the Germans and Russians should not build this pipeline. The argument seems to be that it makes continental Europe 'dependent' on Russian gas. How does having a pipeline to get something cheaper remove the competing alternative suppliers? If Putin does 'switch the pipeline off' to blackmail the West, how does that actually work as blackmail when all the other suppliers are still there?
It allows Russia to bypass Eastern Europe and continue supplying gas to Western Europe. As it stands the only way to cut off Eastern Europe from gas also results in cutting off extremely profitable Western European markets simultaneously.
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
That's a positivity rate of 0.4%, and the government's own estimate of the false positivity rate (link below) is 0.32% - frankly if these published figures are right, assymptomatic testing is borderline pointless.
First, given the test are both rapid and cheap, you can retest either later that day, or the following day, and false positives twice in succession are much less likely (or you could book a PCR test). Secondly, although they are not 100% sensitive in detecting infection, they pick up infectious levels of infection with almost 100% sensitivity (PCR, in contract will continue to detect positive infection for weeks after someone infected is no longer infectious, but still has viral RNA present).
At the time rapid antigen tests detect infection, you are at your most infectious.
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.
36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
Odd story. I wonder if there's some face saving going on. The idea that these workers haven't been offered a vaccine seems utterly ridiculous. If it's true, then heads should role. But my guess is they're fiddling the figures to not offer vaccines to those who won't have it.
It depends how you define "not been offered".
My wife's home all staff were offered to register for a hospital appointment last December, she got hers in December on her day off but very few else did. Was that offered? Because I thought so at the time, but she was one of a tiny minority to take up the offer then.
Most staff got vaccinated when the vaccinators came to the home in January rather than book an appointment themself. Some staff refused, while others were unavailable to come in that day - but the option to go to the hospital on your time off to get it has always been there.
They're now going through all staff who are unvaccinated and if they're refusing the vaccine still getting them to write a letter putting in writing why they are unable to have or are refusing the vaccine.
The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.
Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.
“What happened is almost 100% of the business moved to Europe. It was an extraordinary moment for the UK to watch something that they had been strong in, which is the trading of European shares, literally move overnight.”
An cogent and sagacious article. Serious work has to be done in the coming decades over our foreign and trade relations with Europe, and the measures Richard outlines should be the starting point for any aspiring party of government. Of course, none of this will happen under Boris - his plan is hunker down and hope he can preserve enough or the Red Wall for a second term. Then, I suspect, he'll be off.
We can, and are, selling to the rest of the world as well as a competitor of the EU. That's what they fear more than anything else.
This remains total bollocks.
BMW are not concerned that JLR will outsell them in China.
Italian Prosecco makers are not frightened of Sparkling White English wine.
Despite Liz Truss, the French cheese manufacturers are not losing out to Wensleydale.
This is where I came in. My introduction to pb.com, back in 2005, on a thread ostensibly about the Cheadle by-election, was a long discussion of British cheese. The majority view - though by no means the consensus - was that it was better and more varied than French cheese. Discussion of the subject was impassioned but highly civil.
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
We can, and are, selling to the rest of the world as well as a competitor of the EU. That's what they fear more than anything else.
This remains total bollocks.
BMW are not concerned that JLR will outsell them in China.
Italian Prosecco makers are not frightened of Sparkling White English wine.
Despite Liz Truss, the French cheese manufacturers are not losing out to Wensleydale.
And yet they do fear companies coming to the UK for digital and financial services which is why they are trying very hard to tie us into their regulatory orbit.
The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.
Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.
Tbf a small number of the less excitable Brexiteers give the impression that 'then it's war' is metaphorical. Be grateful for small mercies and all that.
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.
36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
Odd story. I wonder if there's some face saving going on. The idea that these workers haven't been offered a vaccine seems utterly ridiculous. If it's true, then heads should role. But my guess is they're fiddling the figures to not offer vaccines to those who won't have it.
It depends how you define "not been offered".
My wife's home all staff were offered to register for a hospital appointment last December, she got hers in December on her day off but very few else did. Was that offered? Because I thought so at the time, but she was one of a tiny minority to take up the offer then.
Most staff got vaccinated when the vaccinators came to the home in January rather than book an appointment themself. Some staff refused, while others were unavailable to come in that day - but the option to go to the hospital on your time off to get it has always been there.
They're now going through all staff who are unvaccinated and if they're refusing the vaccine still getting them to write a letter putting in writing why they are unable to have or are refusing the vaccine.
That does sound odd. You'd think working in such a job, you'd go to get a vaccine simply for your own protection.
We can, and are, selling to the rest of the world as well as a competitor of the EU. That's what they fear more than anything else.
This remains total bollocks.
BMW are not concerned that JLR will outsell them in China.
Italian Prosecco makers are not frightened of Sparkling White English wine.
Despite Liz Truss, the French cheese manufacturers are not losing out to Wensleydale.
And yet they do fear companies coming to the UK for digital and financial services which is why they are trying very hard to tie us into their regulatory orbit.
We will have to keep an eye on listings. What are you seeing in your corner of it all?
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.
36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
Odd story. I wonder if there's some face saving going on. The idea that these workers haven't been offered a vaccine seems utterly ridiculous. If it's true, then heads should role. But my guess is they're fiddling the figures to not offer vaccines to those who won't have it.
It depends how you define "not been offered".
My wife's home all staff were offered to register for a hospital appointment last December, she got hers in December on her day off but very few else did. Was that offered? Because I thought so at the time, but she was one of a tiny minority to take up the offer then.
Most staff got vaccinated when the vaccinators came to the home in January rather than book an appointment themself. Some staff refused, while others were unavailable to come in that day - but the option to go to the hospital on your time off to get it has always been there.
They're now going through all staff who are unvaccinated and if they're refusing the vaccine still getting them to write a letter putting in writing why they are unable to have or are refusing the vaccine.
That does sound odd. You'd think working in such a job, you'd go to get a vaccine simply for your own protection.
Dr Foxy has reported on the surprising number of colleagues on the front line who are unwilling to be jabbed. People in harms way every day and trained medical professionals...
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.
36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
Odd story. I wonder if there's some face saving going on. The idea that these workers haven't been offered a vaccine seems utterly ridiculous. If it's true, then heads should role. But my guess is they're fiddling the figures to not offer vaccines to those who won't have it.
It depends how you define "not been offered".
My wife's home all staff were offered to register for a hospital appointment last December, she got hers in December on her day off but very few else did. Was that offered? Because I thought so at the time, but she was one of a tiny minority to take up the offer then.
Most staff got vaccinated when the vaccinators came to the home in January rather than book an appointment themself. Some staff refused, while others were unavailable to come in that day - but the option to go to the hospital on your time off to get it has always been there.
They're now going through all staff who are unvaccinated and if they're refusing the vaccine still getting them to write a letter putting in writing why they are unable to have or are refusing the vaccine.
That does sound odd. You'd think working in such a job, you'd go to get a vaccine simply for your own protection.
Dr Foxy has reported on the surprising number of colleagues on the front line who are unwilling to be jabbed. People in harms way every day and trained medical professionals...
Vaccine Anecdote II
Another friend, phlebotomist, saying how many of her BAME colleagues were not getting the jab. Hers is quite a specialist area. And still not.
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.
36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
Odd story. I wonder if there's some face saving going on. The idea that these workers haven't been offered a vaccine seems utterly ridiculous. If it's true, then heads should role. But my guess is they're fiddling the figures to not offer vaccines to those who won't have it.
It depends how you define "not been offered".
My wife's home all staff were offered to register for a hospital appointment last December, she got hers in December on her day off but very few else did. Was that offered? Because I thought so at the time, but she was one of a tiny minority to take up the offer then.
Most staff got vaccinated when the vaccinators came to the home in January rather than book an appointment themself. Some staff refused, while others were unavailable to come in that day - but the option to go to the hospital on your time off to get it has always been there.
They're now going through all staff who are unvaccinated and if they're refusing the vaccine still getting them to write a letter putting in writing why they are unable to have or are refusing the vaccine.
That does sound odd. You'd think working in such a job, you'd go to get a vaccine simply for your own protection.
You get all sorts of idiots.
Apparently there's been high takeup where she works despite one QAnon "truther" in her unit that's been trying to convince everyone not to get the jab. While one individual has rejected the vaccine because she's trying to get pregnant and is worried the vaccine could affect her fertility or ability to have a healthy child.
We can, and are, selling to the rest of the world as well as a competitor of the EU. That's what they fear more than anything else.
This remains total bollocks.
BMW are not concerned that JLR will outsell them in China.
Italian Prosecco makers are not frightened of Sparkling White English wine.
Despite Liz Truss, the French cheese manufacturers are not losing out to Wensleydale.
And yet they do fear companies coming to the UK for digital and financial services which is why they are trying very hard to tie us into their regulatory orbit.
We will have to keep an eye on listings. What are you seeing in your corner of it all?
Asian corporate bond placings for us, but we benefit from being a domestic institution as we've previously discussed. Can't say that I've noticed a drop off or pick up since brexit, but then it's not something that's particularly affected by it one way or another. The South America guys said in a presentation yesterday that they've seen some tentative increases in volume, but I doubt it's related to brexit, more likely to be companies eyeing up cash to invest for a pandemic recovery.
I have been pointing out for a while this is what is happening/will happen but I did point out the major consequence of this.
The trades will no longer be booked in the UK, so the all tax and transaction revenues will be lost to the UK Exchequer and be a gain for the Netherlanders and other EU countries. If they had moved to Macclesfield, the UK Exchequer would lose no tax receipts.
Pop quiz hot shots.
Q1: Which sector in the largest contributor to the UK Exchequer?
A: The financial services sector.
Q2: What happens if our clearing transition which ends next summer isn't extended?
A2: We're more buggered than reluctant Turkish conscript.
Q3: Have US financial institutions started to fill the gap caused by Brexit?
A3: Yes, because they've agreed to follow the EU regulations in this area.
We can, and are, selling to the rest of the world as well as a competitor of the EU. That's what they fear more than anything else.
This remains total bollocks.
BMW are not concerned that JLR will outsell them in China.
Italian Prosecco makers are not frightened of Sparkling White English wine.
Despite Liz Truss, the French cheese manufacturers are not losing out to Wensleydale.
And yet they do fear companies coming to the UK for digital and financial services which is why they are trying very hard to tie us into their regulatory orbit.
We will have to keep an eye on listings. What are you seeing in your corner of it all?
Asian corporate bond placings for us, but we benefit from being a domestic institution as we've previously discussed. Can't say that I've noticed a drop off or pick up since brexit, but then it's not something that's particularly affected by it one way or another. The South America guys said in a presentation yesterday that they've seen some tentative increases in volume, but I doubt it's related to brexit, more likely to be companies eyeing up cash to invest for a pandemic recovery.
Interesting. We'll have to look at XETR/ENX/LSE listings in the next 6-18 months.
The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.
Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.
It must be really hard for you having to continually make stuff up on here because the actual narrative doesn't fit your own extreme bias.
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.
36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
Odd story. I wonder if there's some face saving going on. The idea that these workers haven't been offered a vaccine seems utterly ridiculous. If it's true, then heads should role. But my guess is they're fiddling the figures to not offer vaccines to those who won't have it.
It depends how you define "not been offered".
My wife's home all staff were offered to register for a hospital appointment last December, she got hers in December on her day off but very few else did. Was that offered? Because I thought so at the time, but she was one of a tiny minority to take up the offer then.
Most staff got vaccinated when the vaccinators came to the home in January rather than book an appointment themself. Some staff refused, while others were unavailable to come in that day - but the option to go to the hospital on your time off to get it has always been there.
They're now going through all staff who are unvaccinated and if they're refusing the vaccine still getting them to write a letter putting in writing why they are unable to have or are refusing the vaccine.
That does sound odd. You'd think working in such a job, you'd go to get a vaccine simply for your own protection.
Dr Foxy has reported on the surprising number of colleagues on the front line who are unwilling to be jabbed. People in harms way every day and trained medical professionals...
In the US, with my wife, it is about 40%+ of healthcare workers who are refusing, but it tends not to be the very front line - OR, ICU personnel, both physicians and nurses, were massively relieved to get vaccinated and it's been like a huge load off their shoulders. The reluctance seems to be higher in the more ancillary staff.
I have been pointing out for a while this is what is happening/will happen but I did point out the major consequence of this.
The trades will no longer be booked in the UK, so the all tax and transaction revenues will be lost to the UK Exchequer and be a gain for the Netherlanders and other EU countries. If they had moved to Macclesfield, the UK Exchequer would lose no tax receipts.
Pop quiz hot shots.
Q1: Which sector in the largest contributor to the UK Exchequer?
A: The financial services sector.
Q2: What happens if our clearing transition which ends next summer isn't extended?
A2: We're more buggered than reluctant Turkish conscript.
Q3: Have US financial institutions started to fill the gap caused by Brexit?
A3: Yes, because they've agreed to follow the EU regulations in this area.
The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.
Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.
A Pacific future awaits our Sceptered Isle. This seems to be the vision and I'd love to be able to share it. I have no great emotional attachment to our current bleak loco in the North Atlantic. Dreaming of far-flung places can warm the cockles, especially on such a winter's day, but I fear it is dreaming. My sense is that some of our more cerebral Leavers (plus Philip) are casting round for a Brexit rationale that is more elevated than simple antipathy to the EU and dislike of free movement. Which is fair enough actually. I'd probably be doing the same.
I'm sure the result in Scotland will dominate the news, justifiably so, but I wonder if a strong showing by the Greens will be an important development to consider after the elections this May.
Not under FPTP. Except to leave the Tories in permanent power.
I have been pointing out for a while this is what is happening/will happen but I did point out the major consequence of this.
The trades will no longer be booked in the UK, so the all tax and transaction revenues will be lost to the UK Exchequer and be a gain for the Netherlanders and other EU countries. If they had moved to Macclesfield, the UK Exchequer would lose no tax receipts.
Pop quiz hot shots.
Q1: Which sector in the largest contributor to the UK Exchequer?
A: The financial services sector.
Q2: What happens if our clearing transition which ends next summer isn't extended?
A2: We're more buggered than reluctant Turkish conscript.
Q3: Have US financial institutions started to fill the gap caused by Brexit?
A3: Yes, because they've agreed to follow the EU regulations in this area.
Silly Americans. What do they know?
Give it a few years and they'll be eating proper cheese and nice chocolate.
I have been pointing out for a while this is what is happening/will happen but I did point out the major consequence of this.
The trades will no longer be booked in the UK, so the all tax and transaction revenues will be lost to the UK Exchequer and be a gain for the Netherlanders and other EU countries. If they had moved to Macclesfield, the UK Exchequer would lose no tax receipts.
Pop quiz hot shots.
Q1: Which sector in the largest contributor to the UK Exchequer?
A: The financial services sector.
Q2: What happens if our clearing transition which ends next summer isn't extended?
A2: We're more buggered than reluctant Turkish conscript.
Q3: Have US financial institutions started to fill the gap caused by Brexit?
A3: Yes, because they've agreed to follow the EU regulations in this area.
All valid questions and fair answers, however, the EU is asking for dynamic alignment for the UK to be granted equivalence, no other country has been asked for that.
Also, in terms of revenue equities trading isn't exactly a big deal and it's something that is being completely hollowed out by fintechs. What used to be a reliable generator of revenue is now dominated by startup companies running on negative or zero margins with investor money propping them up, and they're all based here with a few trading licences in Estonia so the majority of tax revenue generated by these guys is in employment which the UK still benefits from.
Under normal circumstances, US tech giant Nvidia’s takeover of British chip designer Arm for US$40 billion (£29 billion) would have sailed through without registering beyond the computing industry. Instead, it has made international headlines, with UK and EU monopolies regulators launching an in-depth investigation after outcry from competitors.
In effect, the deal is pretty much dead before it starts.
The really interesting takeaway from Richard's suggestions is that not a single Leaver on here, that I have seen, wants to have any further dealings with the EU. At all.
Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.
A Pacific future awaits our Sceptered Isle. This seems to be the vision and I'd love to be able to share it. I have no great emotional attachment to our current bleak loco in the North Atlantic. Dreaming of far-flung places can warm the cockles, especially on such a winter's day, but I fear it is dreaming. My sense is that some of our more cerebral Leavers (plus Philip) are casting round for a Brexit rationale that is more elevated than simple antipathy to the EU and dislike of free movement. Which is fair enough actually. I'd probably be doing the same.
Its not a dream, the UK has been trading with far flung places for centuries already.
The future is in the Pacific not the Atlantic. That's where all the world's economic growth is coming from.
Pro-Europeans like to make out that the EU is the world's biggest trade area but it isn't under any definition. When we join the CPTPP the European Union won't even be on the podium, it would be the 4th tradezone in the world.
Sharon, mum to 3, RFC, thinks the polls are fixed. Bloody amazing to think that the honourable, principled UK never descends to fixing their own polls.
I have been pointing out for a while this is what is happening/will happen but I did point out the major consequence of this.
The trades will no longer be booked in the UK, so the all tax and transaction revenues will be lost to the UK Exchequer and be a gain for the Netherlanders and other EU countries. If they had moved to Macclesfield, the UK Exchequer would lose no tax receipts.
Pop quiz hot shots.
Q1: Which sector in the largest contributor to the UK Exchequer?
A: The financial services sector.
Q2: What happens if our clearing transition which ends next summer isn't extended?
A2: We're more buggered than reluctant Turkish conscript.
Q3: Have US financial institutions started to fill the gap caused by Brexit?
A3: Yes, because they've agreed to follow the EU regulations in this area.
All valid questions and fair answers, however, the EU is asking for dynamic alignment for the UK to be granted equivalence, no other country has been asked for that.
Also, in terms of revenue equities trading isn't exactly a big deal and it's something that is being completely hollowed out by fintechs. What used to be a reliable generator of revenue is now dominated by startup companies running on negative or zero margins with investor money propping them up, and they're all based here with a few trading licences in Estonia so the majority of tax revenue generated by these guys is in employment which the UK still benefits from.
As I said it is where the centre of gravity for listings moves that will be interesting for equities. If capital raising on primary and secondary markets is seen as more convenient/easier in the EU then that's where those fintechs et al will go.
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
How does 7% refusing it and 36% not being offered it equate to 40% in any sane calculation.
36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
Its the gruadian....i am bit a suss that so many haven't supposedly been offered a jab. But either way we can't have that many staff unvaccinated.
I suspect it was the shift patterns - if they weren't on site when the hit squad visited they didn't get jabbed, and until recently they couldn't book direct. But isn't it slightly irrelevant if all the residents have been jabbed?
(was just on the phone with one of the owners of HC-One. Kicking myself I forget to ask him )
Friend - mid-fifties, phoned up by GP saying come in for the jab. Why me? Just trying to be pro-active we have spaces to fill.
You can see how a government with authoritarian tendencies might make the end of lockdown contingent on sufficient people getting vaccines.
Which could very turn nasty.
I wondered out loud how vaccine passports for eg holidays, or going to the footie for that matter, would work for, say a family of two parents and children of any age and up to their 20s.
Parents will be jabbed waay before the rest of the family.
Comments
https://twitter.com/sunapology/status/1359841539841789953?s=21
With the UK very much a player. And the EU very much played.
I wonder what impact the different rates of reopening their economies will have?
https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1359840532965556226?s=20
Been good news with the vaccine drive. Unionists returning to the Tories (at a rate the Tories have been at or around for a few years) doesn't seem too surprising to me.
SavantaComres had the Tories on 23% in October, their poll before that had them on 24%, so them being back to 23% now isn't really that odd.
https://twitter.com/braidengb/status/1359843709047742466?s=21
Those who dismiss it as the rantings of a rabid remainer are just wrong but shows how extreme some peoples view on the EU are.
You can't see my car. Covered in snow...
Rather, I thought it showed the Hebrides splitting away....
Whatever the answer, it was always clear that Johnson's 'save xmas' policy was a mess and potentially a disaster.
EDIT: although I think most of us would assume that the diddling around over Christmas can't have helped - the number of people who met up at Christmas who wouldn't have done if the rules were tighter must be greater than zero, but it's difficult to put a value on it.
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1359839731308257283?s=20
Bye.......
The simple fact is that there was from 2010-2015 a massive Lib Dem -> UKIP swing.
The reason is that the Lib Dems until 2010 were a receptacle for "none of the above" or "other" or "a pox on both your houses" voters. The idea that every Lib Dem voter was an orange booker, or was into the difference between voting systems, or any other nonsense was ridiculous - many just wanted to say no to the Tories and no to Labour so voted LD by default.
After the Lib Dems died post coalition, that pox on both your houses vote went to UKIP in 2015.
2017 and 2019 especially saw an increasing polarisation so that pox vote was divided between Labour and the Tories as people voted to stop the other, worse evil in their eyes whichever it may be.
The end of Corbynism may see a return to the "none of the above" vote. But UKIP have joined the Lib Dems in being a Norwegian Blue so where does that vote go?
The Greens. 2024's none of the above party potentially.
https://twitter.com/Williamw1/status/1359810812672700418?s=20
https://twitter.com/Williamw1/status/1359810902472740867?s=20
https://twitter.com/Williamw1/status/1359810980541329413?s=20
All families I know behaved sensibly.
What I do see is people ... heaven forfend people like you ... people playing petty politics in the midst of a very difficult situation.
And the government can fill up a water trough and take its horses there, but it can't make them drink.
Perhaps we can start processing coffee in African instead of screwing them over to protect German coffee processing companies?
I'm not sure his total insights into UK politics over the past decade amount to much more. He'd get relentlessly pilloried if he were just a poster on here.
The world ideally needs a widget to put Peston on "ignore". Until developed, you'll just have to do it manually...
https://twitter.com/Williamw1/status/1359811228571418626
Certainly my concern was always that German and French trade interests prevented the EU being as tough on China, Russia and Iran as I believe they should have been
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/chronic-infection-uk-coronavirus-variant
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/09/uk-ministers-accused-of-engineering-vote-on-genocide-claims
Largest compilation of emails and passwords leaked for free on public forum
https://cybernews.com/news/largest-compilation-of-emails-and-passwords-leaked-free/
Edit. Apologies, @bigjohnowls, just saw your comment.
2) Starmer: 'Labour is calling for all international arrivals to quarantine in hotels' - I'm not actually paying that much attention to what policy is on any given day, but isn't this what the government are attempting to implement?
3) I went for a walk with a Guardianista-Remainer type friend of mine last night. His view was that Brexit was actually going ok, bar a few teething troubles which would get resolved. He was also of the view that we would just have to get used to less cross-channel trade in food, and that we would have to eat a lot more of what we used to export - in 12 months time we'll all be sick of prime steak, langoustines and lobster thermidore every night. [Note that this was in the context of a cheerful conversation, not hard-headed analysis, and should be treated no more seriously than pre-Brexit laments of prosecco shortages.]
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/11/eu-provided-crowd-control-training-to-myanmar-police-units
More than 40% of staff at the UK’s biggest care home provider have still not received vaccinations, 10 days after the government’s deadline to have provided first jabs to all care home workers and residents.
HC-One, which provides 20,000 beds across 329 homes in the UK, told the Guardian its latest figures showed 64% of its staff had been offered the vaccine and 7% declined it.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/11/40-percent-of-staff-at-biggest-uk-care-home-firm-hc-one-have-not-had-covid-vaccine
If those terms aren’t available (the reasons why don’t matter) then we will look elsewhere
Yes we can grow our own now while we have high case numbers but as case numbers get stomped out the risk comes from the border (like the Spanish holidays importation of the virus last summer).
36% not being offered it is unacceptable but merging 2 completely separate figures to generate a larger figure doesn't do anyone any favours.
What we're all asking for is a realistic assessment of what kind of relationship the EU wants with the UK, so far all the evidence is of a transactional one which many of us predicted almost 5 years ago after the leave vote.
That means we must get back what we put in, if that's not going to happen then a reassessment of the existing deal is in order to extricate ourselves further as time goes on. Hollow out more of the non-trade parts of the deal to make it an essentially barebones trade deal with no real alliance beyond trade.
Ultimately the EU has little to nothing to offer us beyond being able to sell them stuff. We can, and are, selling to the rest of the world as well as a competitor of the EU. That's what they fear more than anything else.
LNG supply chains don't respond well to interruptions - so the production facilities are setup to match demand, much more closely than with oil. Just switching supplier at the scale of Germany (say) isn't doable without a lot of prior notice
Essentially Germany is handing Russia a huge stick to bear Eastern Europe with should they decide they don't like Russian interference in their nations.
But it benefits German companies and allows Siemens to build cheaper dishwashers, so it's worth it from the German perspective.
BMW are not concerned that JLR will outsell them in China.
Italian Prosecco makers are not frightened of Sparkling White English wine.
Despite Liz Truss, the French cheese manufacturers are not losing out to Wensleydale.
First, given the test are both rapid and cheap, you can retest either later that day, or the following day, and false positives twice in succession are much less likely (or you could book a PCR test).
Secondly, although they are not 100% sensitive in detecting infection, they pick up infectious levels of infection with almost 100% sensitivity (PCR, in contract will continue to detect positive infection for weeks after someone infected is no longer infectious, but still has viral RNA present).
At the time rapid antigen tests detect infection, you are at your most infectious.
36% not being offered it is a significant issue
7% refusing to be vaccinated is a significant issue.
But the 2 issues are completely separate and shouldn't be being merged together as it simply lessens both stories.
My wife's home all staff were offered to register for a hospital appointment last December, she got hers in December on her day off but very few else did. Was that offered? Because I thought so at the time, but she was one of a tiny minority to take up the offer then.
Most staff got vaccinated when the vaccinators came to the home in January rather than book an appointment themself. Some staff refused, while others were unavailable to come in that day - but the option to go to the hospital on your time off to get it has always been there.
They're now going through all staff who are unvaccinated and if they're refusing the vaccine still getting them to write a letter putting in writing why they are unable to have or are refusing the vaccine.
If jokes about Schroeder are bar conversation...
I don't think that he is the real issue there. East Politics has been a thing since Germany first existed.
https://www.thetradenews.com/the-brexit-share-trading-exodus/
I mean we still have OTC derivs what's the big fuss?
The virus doesn't care if you're unvaccinated because you're refusing or unvaccinated because you've not been offered.
Friend - mid-fifties, phoned up by GP saying come in for the jab. Why me? Just trying to be pro-active we have spaces to fill.
Another friend, phlebotomist, saying how many of her BAME colleagues were not getting the jab. Hers is quite a specialist area. And still not.
Apparently there's been high takeup where she works despite one QAnon "truther" in her unit that's been trying to convince everyone not to get the jab. While one individual has rejected the vaccine because she's trying to get pregnant and is worried the vaccine could affect her fertility or ability to have a healthy child.
The trades will no longer be booked in the UK, so the all tax and transaction revenues will be lost to the UK Exchequer and be a gain for the Netherlanders and other EU countries. If they had moved to Macclesfield, the UK Exchequer would lose no tax receipts.
Pop quiz hot shots.
Q1: Which sector in the largest contributor to the UK Exchequer?
A: The financial services sector.
Q2: What happens if our clearing transition which ends next summer isn't extended?
A2: We're more buggered than reluctant Turkish conscript.
Q3: Have US financial institutions started to fill the gap caused by Brexit?
A3: Yes, because they've agreed to follow the EU regulations in this area.
A4: Oops ☹️
Democracy my foot.
What do they know?
Give it a few years and they'll be eating proper cheese and nice chocolate.
Also, in terms of revenue equities trading isn't exactly a big deal and it's something that is being completely hollowed out by fintechs. What used to be a reliable generator of revenue is now dominated by startup companies running on negative or zero margins with investor money propping them up, and they're all based here with a few trading licences in Estonia so the majority of tax revenue generated by these guys is in employment which the UK still benefits from.
In effect, the deal is pretty much dead before it starts.
https://theconversation.com/amp/nvidias-us-40-billion-deal-to-buy-arm-is-all-but-dead-its-a-classic-example-of-geopolitics-killing-innovation-154999
The future is in the Pacific not the Atlantic. That's where all the world's economic growth is coming from.
Pro-Europeans like to make out that the EU is the world's biggest trade area but it isn't under any definition. When we join the CPTPP the European Union won't even be on the podium, it would be the 4th tradezone in the world.
Bloody amazing to think that the honourable, principled UK never descends to fixing their own polls.
https://twitter.com/Mumtriesherbest/status/1359829969996808193?s=20
Which could very turn nasty.
(was just on the phone with one of the owners of HC-One. Kicking myself I forget to ask him
Alex Hales is never playing for England ever again is he.
Parents will be jabbed waay before the rest of the family.