1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
"Tight but we're confident of meeting our target" suggests that the government have the capacity to deliver but not the supply at present but think that more is on the way. Hopefully there's a big batch incoming, as it's easily possible for us to be doing 500k a day if the supply is there as demonstrated last week.
If I remember right this was the week we were expecting delays, especially with Pfizer. Hopefully back to full steam ahead next week.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
I sincerely hope you're wrong. One of the selling points of Brexit was that we'd stop obsessing over everything the EU does and start start holding our own politicians to account with their newly granted sovereignty. I'm not seeing many signs of this yet: even now, some are more keen to boom about the EU's current Covid failings than they ever were about Boris's. It does make we wonder what these people really wanted out of Brexit.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
I sincerely hope you're wrong. One of the selling points of Brexit was that we'd stop obsessing over everything the EU does and start start holding our own politicians to account with their newly granted sovereignty. I'm not seeing many signs of this yet: even now, some are more keen to boom about the EU's current Covid failings than they ever were about Boris's. It does make we wonder what these people really wanted out of Brexit.
The only reason it is being obsessed over is they are literally threatening to ban exports of vaccines to the UK.
Hard to work out who's had a worse week - German politicians or EU ones. If they decide they're unwilling to use AZ for over 65s then it'll set them back months. If they're seriously going to slow the vaccine rollout to a snails pace and offer pensioners no vaccine rather than give them the AZ then they're crazy. They won't be able to get Pfizer all across the continent with ease and have nowhere near enough of Moderna.
They are taking a pessimistic interpretation of the admittedly limited data and not approving the use of the vaccine for the very group that could benefit the most. That might be fine if this was any other disease, but right now that will almost certainly result in thousands of avoidable deaths.
The NHS emergency - grave and projected to be catastrophic without urgent action - surely had much to do with us approving the AZ vaccine at a lower than ideal confidence level on efficacy. Same thing applies to our decision to defer the booster and do more 1st jabs.
Perhaps Germany is not in quite such a crisis situation?
They might well be in a full blown crisis shortly if they don't get cracking with vaccination.
I believe that's what's called seeing conditions on the ground for himself...
Well that is one way of describing it but it's yet another gift from the Tories to the SNP, free gratis and for nothing.
The Scots have made up their minds about Boris and there's nothing he can do to change that.
It's not as if Mrt Johnson ever meets any random members of the Scottish public, either - though neither did Ms May have the guts to do so. I rather feel the incident of Mr Cameron and the porridge factory rather put the Tories off that for good.
Ms May did pursue the high risk strategy of chapping a few doors in Deeside at least, so she has more balls than BJ.
I seem to recall it was in a posh part down Banchory way, not exactly the cooncil estates in Aberdeen. But still.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract.
But how do we know that all the production shortfall is due to when contracts were signed?
Off topic more or less, does anyone knows what the new customs rules are for buying from private sellers in the EU on Ebay? I'm looking at a fairly pricey item in Potsdam but still a pretty good deal, having a wheen of VAT and customs charges whacked on it makes it a lot less good
Don't bother. It's more hassle than it's worth now. The courier companies just make up charges at random. I bought about 100 quid worth of 2CV parts from the Netherlands and paid nearly 250 quid in various imposts on top.
I buy and sell a lot of Porsche parts on eBay and the game is now fraudlent values with the balance made up en noir. Recently bought a 991.2 GT3RS ECU and key set for "80 euros". Lol.
2CV? Does that mean you'll be heading to the country, with a dozen eggs and, erm, a top hat any time soon?
I've always had 2CVs since my time at university in France. I've currently got an '87 Spécial that's SORNed. I am putting it back on the road because it makes me feel some kind of way.
I always had 2 CVs - one for work and the other for Grindr!
Off topic more or less, does anyone knows what the new customs rules are for buying from private sellers in the EU on Ebay? I'm looking at a fairly pricey item in Potsdam but still a pretty good deal, having a wheen of VAT and customs charges whacked on it makes it a lot less good
Don't bother. It's more hassle than it's worth now. The courier companies just make up charges at random. I bought about 100 quid worth of 2CV parts from the Netherlands and paid nearly 250 quid in various imposts on top.
I buy and sell a lot of Porsche parts on eBay and the game is now fraudlent values with the balance made up en noir. Recently bought a 991.2 GT3RS ECU and key set for "80 euros". Lol.
2CV? Does that mean you'll be heading to the country, with a dozen eggs and, erm, a top hat any time soon?
I've always had 2CVs since my time at university in France. I've currently got an '87 Spécial that's SORNed. I am putting it back on the road because it makes me feel some kind of way.
My chum and I used to go megalith-hunting in his in the 1980s. The peel-back top was great for doing a Rommel impersonation to look over the hedges for the osbcure sites we were ticking off.
One of the many great things about the Western Isles are the number of sites that are completely off the beaten track and have to be tracked down with a compass and map tramping across rolling heather moorland. Very special sense when you find your standing stone, souterrain, whatever. One I found was used as a plucking site for the local pair of eagles.
The UK outside of the EU seems to be in that odd position of not being “big” enough to challenge globally, but not small enough to ignore, hence it becomes an eternal pain in the backside.
Maybe some competition on the doorstep of the EU is good for a bit of good ole fashioned innovation.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
I sincerely hope you're wrong. One of the selling points of Brexit was that we'd stop obsessing over everything the EU does and start start holding our own politicians to account with their newly granted sovereignty. I'm not seeing many signs of this yet: even now, some are more keen to boom about the EU's current Covid failings than they ever were about Boris's. It does make we wonder what these people really wanted out of Brexit.
Are you kidding?
This whole story shows the UK politicians being held to account.
Being contrasted with the EU is completely different to them being able to point to the EU, shrug and say "its an EU matter, nothing I can do".
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract. https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/status/1354717241061871617
If, as seems likely, we do not yield on this point then it’s an interesting and unpredictable first case study for our post Brexit relationship. Not a happy case study, or the one any of us would have hoped for to shape our relationship, but an interesting one.
The EU expect us to show "solidarity" with the EU even though we're no longer in the EU?
The man never learns....he rushs in makes a load of tweets about stuff and then walks away like he isn't responsible for any of the shitstorm he has caused.
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
"Tight but we're confident of meeting our target" suggests that the government have the capacity to deliver but not the supply at present but think that more is on the way. Hopefully there's a big batch incoming, as it's easily possible for us to be doing 500k a day if the supply is there as demonstrated last week.
If I remember right this was the week we were expecting delays, especially with Pfizer. Hopefully back to full steam ahead next week.
Typical that an aspiration for the government is to reach equivalence to 19th century steam power.
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
Well, you can look at that two ways: - No evidence AZN is effective in over 65s -> don't give the vaccine - No evidence AZN effectiveness in over 65s is different to effectiveness in under 65s, for whom it is effective -> give the vaccine Both technically true. Take your pick.
I don't know whether this is done in the assessments/trials, but I'd be inclined (I'm no virologist, just an epidemiologist without expertise in this area; I've not even done much trial work) to try and model the response with age, e.g. interaction of age and vaccination status against infection risk, so that you can pick up whether there's evidence for a decrease in efficacy with age and the extent of that.
Similar logic in whether you give two doses three weeks apart or delay the second dose. You don't have hard evidence that two doses further apart will be better overall as more get first dose, but you suspect it to be the case. Countries will make different decisions there too, of course.
The Germans are more risk-averse than we are most of the time, as I linked to earlier.
The man never learns....he rushs in makes a load of tweets about stuff and then walks away like he isn't responsible for any of the shitstorm he has caused.
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
"Tight but we're confident of meeting our target" suggests that the government have the capacity to deliver but not the supply at present but think that more is on the way. Hopefully there's a big batch incoming, as it's easily possible for us to be doing 500k a day if the supply is there as demonstrated last week.
If I remember right this was the week we were expecting delays, especially with Pfizer. Hopefully back to full steam ahead next week.
Typical that an aspiration for the government is to reach equivalence to 19th century steam power.
Let's nuclear ahead.
That's so 20th century.
Didn't you know the 21st century is all about wind power?
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
Well, you can look at that two ways: - No evidence AZN is effective in over 65s -> don't give the vaccine - No evidence AZN effectiveness in over 65s is different to effectiveness in under 65s, for whom it is effective -> give the vaccine Both technically true. Take your pick.
I don't know whether this is done in the assessments/trials, but I'd be inclined (I'm no virologist, just an epidemiologist without expertise in this area; I've not even done much trial work) to try and model the response with age, e.g. interaction of age and vaccination status against infection risk, so that you can pick up whether there's evidence for a decrease in efficacy with age and the extent of that.
That I think would be the double negative approach I was talking about. (No reason not to). I am not a subject matter expert, but I do have quite a lot of experience in regulation in other fields. In general you are required to evidence against set criteria. Saying, we will ignore these criteria because we don't have the data, but we'll make some assumptions and model those instead doesn't cut it. I could imagine a reason why they want trial data for the over 65s is a hypothesis the vaccine behaves differently in that age group, just as the virus itself does.
In the unusual circumstances we're in, they may be better being open about it: our job is to make sure the vaccine is safe, to get it out there. The efficacy is what it is. We'll get more data on that soon enough.
The man never learns....he rushs in makes a load of tweets about stuff and then walks away like he isn't responsible for any of the shitstorm he has caused.
Cablegate being a prime example.
And chemical industry and accuracy of testing and the rules of lockdown....he just blurts out crap and then moves on like why are you looking at me, i am only repeating what my sources say. Not my fault it was wrong info.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract.
But how do we know that all the production shortfall is due to when contracts were signed?
Not all of it will be according to AZ. A lot of it is random, especially when starting out, as its not like making widgets or whatever so different facilities have experienced different delays. So there are bad luck delays, that have happened in both the UK and EU plants, delays from starting later and relative delays to the UK from having less capacity (due to less funding on the EU side).
The EU plants have had more back luck according to AZ. In addition the bad luck delays that happened in the UK also slow down the EU receiving doses as once we have been supplied with x million doses then some of the UK production goes to the EU.
Sturgeon is usually sure footed and competent. However criticising Johnson over a visit to Scotland seems a bit over the top and churlish.
Is it? All he's doing is cart people over the border and back down. During lockdown. From a higher-risk area to a lower one. Just so he can be photographed somewhere with plastic goggles and a yellow jacket/white coat, near a nice convenient fridge.
And what stops it being against the law is his interpretation of need and work.
If a relative of mine can get married with just two people present - the witnesses - on the principle of minimising risk, and doing without any wedding lunch never mind reception on the same principle, then Mr J can bloody well reduce his extracurricular activities to a minimum.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
The EU is not Man United, the UK is not Stockport County. The EU isn't even United. As we see
I didn't mean it literally. Global Britain is no Stockport County. C'mon. It's a Blackburn Rovers at the very least. And it is a mess on the EU side. But you will admit that the europhobe glee - which word I choose carefully - over this does have some of what I'm trying to get over. Pleasure in the misfortune of something to which one has both a superiority and inferiority complex. These 2 things do go together after all.
Go on Twitter and you'll find plenty of EU schadenfreude (see what I did there) over Britain's struggles with the virus. Just as they exulted in the problems of Brexit. This stuff goes both ways.
There is no inferiority complex on either side on this vaccine issue. There is rivalry, panic, and some lingering bitterness over Brexit
I will admit some Leavers have a mental problem, but it is, actually, more of a superiority complex. British exceptionalism. That really is a thing.
Yes, I'm sure there is some 2 way. But, look, if it's pure superiority complex driving the europhobes, that is even worse what they are doing with this vaccine debacle. Because that's punching down.
The man never learns....he rushs in makes a load of tweets about stuff and then walks away like he isn't responsible for any of the shitstorm he has caused.
The very worst form of gutter journalism 'will cause great anxiety'. A combination of ignorance and maliciousness is the best interpretation I can think of.
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
"Tight but we're confident of meeting our target" suggests that the government have the capacity to deliver but not the supply at present but think that more is on the way. Hopefully there's a big batch incoming, as it's easily possible for us to be doing 500k a day if the supply is there as demonstrated last week.
If I remember right this was the week we were expecting delays, especially with Pfizer. Hopefully back to full steam ahead next week.
Typical that an aspiration for the government is to reach equivalence to 19th century steam power.
Let's nuclear ahead.
Er, with odd exceptions in aerospace, nuclear power plants ARE steam engines.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract.
But how do we know that all the production shortfall is due to when contracts were signed?
Not all of it will be according to AZ. A lot of it is random, especially when starting out, as its not like making widgets or whatever so different facilities have experienced different delays. So there are bad luck delays, that have happened in both the UK and EU plants, delays from starting later and relative delays to the UK from having less capacity (due to less funding on the EU side).
The EU plants have had more back luck according to AZ. In addition the bad luck delays that happened in the UK also slow down the EU receiving doses as once we have been supplied with x million doses then some of the UK production goes to the EU.
Not "luck".
Accord to AZ the UK manufacturing faced the same delays but because the UK contract was signed for the UK three months earlier they've had three months more to fix the problems.
That the EU wasted three months before signing the contract, the manufacturing for the EU began three months late. That's not "luck".
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
Well, you can look at that two ways: - No evidence AZN is effective in over 65s -> don't give the vaccine - No evidence AZN effectiveness in over 65s is different to effectiveness in under 65s, for whom it is effective -> give the vaccine Both technically true. Take your pick.
I don't know whether this is done in the assessments/trials, but I'd be inclined (I'm no virologist, just an epidemiologist without expertise in this area; I've not even done much trial work) to try and model the response with age, e.g. interaction of age and vaccination status against infection risk, so that you can pick up whether there's evidence for a decrease in efficacy with age and the extent of that.
Similar logic in whether you give two doses three weeks apart or delay the second dose. You don't have hard evidence that two doses further apart will be better overall as more get first dose, but you suspect it to be the case. Countries will make different decisions there too, of course.
The Germans are more risk-averse than we are most of the time, as I linked to earlier.
And before any of this blew up, there was evidence that the Oxford trial was a hot mess (remember the dose sequencing thing?)
In normal times, and/or if you had a risk-averse population, I'm sure you'd tell them to go back and do it properly this time.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
The EU is not Man United, the UK is not Stockport County. The EU isn't even United. As we see
I didn't mean it literally. Global Britain is no Stockport County. C'mon. It's a Blackburn Rovers at the very least. And it is a mess on the EU side. But you will admit that the europhobe glee - which word I choose carefully - over this does have some of what I'm trying to get over. Pleasure in the misfortune of something to which one has both a superiority and inferiority complex. These 2 things do go together after all.
As our Teutonic cousins like to say: Die reinste Freude ist die Schadenfreude.
Especially when so many on the EU side had taken so much glee in both our actual misfortunes, and in predicting new ones - remember how our vaccine deliveries were going to pile up at the border because of Brexit, anyone? So perhaps gegenseitig Schadenfreude is the more accurate description in this case.
I think the only slight tweak I'd make to the vaccination program is shortening the dose time for Pfizer. Looking at the science 12 weeks is absolubtely correct for Astra.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract.
But how do we know that all the production shortfall is due to when contracts were signed?
Not all of it will be according to AZ. A lot of it is random, especially when starting out, as its not like making widgets or whatever so different facilities have experienced different delays. So there are bad luck delays, that have happened in both the UK and EU plants, delays from starting later and relative delays to the UK from having less capacity (due to less funding on the EU side).
The EU plants have had more back luck according to AZ. In addition the bad luck delays that happened in the UK also slow down the EU receiving doses as once we have been supplied with x million doses then some of the UK production goes to the EU.
Not "luck".
Accord to AZ the UK manufacturing faced the same delays but because the UK contract was signed for the UK three months earlier they've had three months more to fix the problems.
That the EU wasted three months before signing the contract, the manufacturing for the EU began three months late. That's not "luck".
From Soriots interview it is clear that in addition to the time delays the EU site experienced lower than expected yield in one of their main sites. Yes the EU wasted time in signing contracts and that is their fault, that does not rule out them experiencing bad luck further down the line, as they did.
“So maybe I need to give you a little bit of explanation as to how we manufacture those vaccines. Essentially, we have cell cultures, big batches, 1000-litre or 2000-litre batches. We have cell cultures inside those batches and we inject them with the virus, the vaccine, if you will. Then those cells produce the vaccine, it’s a biotechnology protection. Now, some of those batches have very high yield and others have low yield. Particularly in Europe, we had one site with large capacity that experienced yield issues."
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract. https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/status/1354717241061871617
If, as seems likely, we do not yield on this point then it’s an interesting and unpredictable first case study for our post Brexit relationship. Not a happy case study, or the one any of us would have hoped for to shape our relationship, but an interesting one.
The EU expect us to show "solidarity" with the EU even though we're no longer in the EU?
Sounds like cherrypicking to me.
No, they are quite conspicuously not approaching this as friendly neighbours - I know the suggestion of 'mediation' by the British Government from a Tweeter was a silly one, but to have no communication at all between the two organisations is perhaps an odd approach. It seems that our desire to be friendly neighbours is some way off, and that the issue is not on our own side.
The German decision re AZ over 65’s is rather worrying.
What if it isn’t effective?
Are we going to have to rejab millions of over 65s with the other vaccines?
Lockdown could really drag on... or worse. We lift lockdown and get a 3rd wave.
Bollox
That would be hugely surprising given the immune response was virtually identical between the younger and older cohorts. There is no evidence suggesting it isn't effective at all ages.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract.
But how do we know that all the production shortfall is due to when contracts were signed?
Not all of it will be according to AZ. A lot of it is random, especially when starting out, as its not like making widgets or whatever so different facilities have experienced different delays. So there are bad luck delays, that have happened in both the UK and EU plants, delays from starting later and relative delays to the UK from having less capacity (due to less funding on the EU side).
The EU plants have had more back luck according to AZ. In addition the bad luck delays that happened in the UK also slow down the EU receiving doses as once we have been supplied with x million doses then some of the UK production goes to the EU.
Not "luck".
Accord to AZ the UK manufacturing faced the same delays but because the UK contract was signed for the UK three months earlier they've had three months more to fix the problems.
That the EU wasted three months before signing the contract, the manufacturing for the EU began three months late. That's not "luck".
From Soriots interview it is clear that in addition to the time delays the EU site experienced lower than expected yield in one of their main sites. Yes the EU wasted time in signing contracts and that is their fault, that does not rule out them experiencing bad luck further down the line, as they did.
“So maybe I need to give you a little bit of explanation as to how we manufacture those vaccines. Essentially, we have cell cultures, big batches, 1000-litre or 2000-litre batches. We have cell cultures inside those batches and we inject them with the virus, the vaccine, if you will. Then those cells produce the vaccine, it’s a biotechnology protection. Now, some of those batches have very high yield and others have low yield. Particularly in Europe, we had one site with large capacity that experienced yield issues."
I think you missed a bit.
'We've had also teething issues like this in the UK supply chain. But the UK contract was signed three months before the European vaccine deal. So with the UK we have had an extra three months to fix all the glitches we experienced. As for Europe, we are three months behind in fixing those glitches. '
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
The EU is not Man United, the UK is not Stockport County. The EU isn't even United. As we see
I didn't mean it literally. Global Britain is no Stockport County. C'mon. It's a Blackburn Rovers at the very least. And it is a mess on the EU side. But you will admit that the europhobe glee - which word I choose carefully - over this does have some of what I'm trying to get over. Pleasure in the misfortune of something to which one has both a superiority and inferiority complex. These 2 things do go together after all.
I am reminded of Churchill's quote, "The Hun is always either at your throat or your feet….”. Perhaps the British stroke of genius is to adapt its German heritage to allow it to do both simultaneously.
It's that man again! Churchill, I mean, not you. But this does have massive tabloid potential for tomorrow. The Germans are effectively saying our vaccine is gerald ratner. Might be ok to fob off our senior citizens with it but it's not "pure" enough for Aryan veins. There'll be quite some brainstorming going on at the Mail and the Sun, I'd wager.
Sturgeon is usually sure footed and competent. However criticising Johnson over a visit to Scotland seems a bit over the top and churlish.
Is it? All he's doing is cart people over the border and back down. During lockdown. From a higher-risk area to a lower one. Just so he can be photographed somewhere with plastic goggles and a yellow jacket/white coat, near a nice convenient fridge.
And what stops it being against the law is his interpretation of need and work.
If a relative of mine can get married with just two people present - the witnesses - on the principle of minimising risk, and doing without any wedding lunch never mind reception on the same principle, then Mr J can bloody well reduce his extracurricular activities to a minimum.
If it comes to that, why does Sturgeon do a daily commute between tiers?
Am I the only lifelong pro-European who is starting to think we're better off outside the EU?
Nope, and I don't think economically we'll be better off outside the EU but I do agree that in situations that require fast action like vaccines we'll be a much nimbler country. If we can use this to our advantage on issues such as sanctions in the future (e.g the EU pissed about over Belarus because of Cyprus) then that's the real benefit of Brexit in my view. However, that all relies on a government willing to grab the controls and not just flail about as has happened with the coronavirus restrictions.
The situation is undoubtedly an EU failure, but (please correct me if wrong) being in the EU would not have prevented the UK from doing what it did. Other EU countries could also have done the same.
AIUI the UK would have been stopped from all the upfront investment in supply facilities under state aid rules. AFAIK NO other EU country has remotely done as much as the UK - and the entire EU has done LESS than the UK on vaccines for the Third World.
Interesting. So state aid rules would have prevented the VTF from doing its thing?
No, it's the interminable arguments over who gets what money and all the horrible bureaucracy that comes with it. They were already months late, now add in arguments about where the subsidy money goes int the equation. They'd probably still be arguing about it.
I suppose the question is could we have done what we did within the EU or did we specifically go against any EU reg or law to do it.
We could have, definitely. It would have been politically very difficult to not be in the EU scheme though so I don't think we would have. Indeed, if we were still EU members with out own scheme outside of the EU one the calls for "unity" from the British to share vaccines would be even greater than they are now.
I know you're being obtuse on this and thing to get to technicalities to weasel out of criticising the EU, but you need to face up to it, the EU has completely shat the bed.
They have been shocking. But as with so much we have seen, we could have done exactly what we did while still being in the EU (cf exporting to the US, Tonga, The Dutch Antilles, etc).
And as with @Philip_Thompson yesterday dismissing "the contract", yes absolutely I want to get to "technicalities" as that determines the whole issue.
Your literal "could have, would have, if we were, would be..." supposition doesn't cut it.
Ok, so let's travel the other road then, and do t BS about "we can't know" to get out of it.
We vote remain in 2016, in 2020 this horrific pandemic hits us.
It's April and the government is screaming at the pharma industry to get into gear and make a vaccine, any vaccine. The same things are happening all over the developed world. The UK and US decide to have a special taskforce to handle these things and they are based on subsidies for industry (Operation Warp speed in the US and the VTF here). So far no difference.
In June the EU, which we are still a full member of, not on the way out of, decides to wade in.
First quantum alternate reality - do we enter the scheme as "good Europeans" or decline and stick with what we have?
Let's say the timeline continues as before and we decline based on the scheme being flawed as a purchase scheme rather than a subsidy scheme.
Next break point, we have our own successful scheme as now and the EU scheme failed as before, now we're in the EU. Are we "good Europeans" and will we now become part of the EU scheme with our superior per capita purchases and domestic manufacturing capacity? How much pressure is on PM Osborne to submit to the EU? Is the guardian writing editorials saying that we're culpable for the deaths of old people in Europe and that good Europeans would share their resources.
All of these things need to be taken into account. So far you're looking at specific technicalities and completely missing the forest for the trees. It's never about the rules with the EU, it's always a political calculation. Hence the lack of subsidies in their purchasing scheme, it gets bogged down in politics. Take the politics into account when judging how well the EU scheme would really have worked for us.
Well it's a great counterfactual and I'm just amazed that its conclusions support your theory.
How about one where Hagrid the Great emerged to reclaim the land of the Angles and invaded the continent?
We don't know what we don't know. All that you said could have happened but equally, like we have done with many instances over the past years, we could have had the determination to do our own thing.
This is what bugs me about the anti-EUers on here. They are so lacking in confidence in the UK that they think the UK has and would have been so cowed by the EU that we would have refused to take actions in our best interests. That we would have cowered under the mighty jackboot of the EU and be forced to sit in our room on a time out.
I have and had much more confidence in the UK to act in its best interests when it needs to.
And what you have agreed is that being a member of the EU wouldn't have prevented us doing so in this instance.
I appreciate fantasy counterfactuals are much more fun than technicalities but there is one I would rely on over the other.
And we're back to square one of simply ignoring the fact of EU politics. Fine, but that doesn't make it go away. In fact it's one of the major driving forces of leaving the EU.
Of course it was. But the UK could and has acted in its own interests whether in or out of the EU.
That is the technicality.
So vaccine-gate is just proof that the EU acted slowly and nations within the EU (of which we of course were one at the time) could choose to do what they believed was best for their countries.
And then there's the approval process to actually USE the vaccines..... Hmm.
We went through this at the time, as explained by the ex-head of the MHRA.
The MHRA was the EU's de facto vaccine regulator. So after it moved that affected the EU's ability to use its expertise. Hence the MHRA rolling review which meant the approval was very quick applied to the UK only. Other regulatory authorities could have taken advantage of this but didn't given the role the MHRA had performed EU-wide.
So we could, if we wanted to, say that Brexit prevented the EU from acting as fast as we did.
And if that is a big win in your book knock yourself out.
The EU were free to use the MHRA approval as the basis of their own, but declined to do so.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
The EU is not Man United, the UK is not Stockport County. The EU isn't even United. As we see
I didn't mean it literally. Global Britain is no Stockport County. C'mon. It's a Blackburn Rovers at the very least. And it is a mess on the EU side. But you will admit that the europhobe glee - which word I choose carefully - over this does have some of what I'm trying to get over. Pleasure in the misfortune of something to which one has both a superiority and inferiority complex. These 2 things do go together after all.
As our Teutonic cousins like to say: Die reinste Freude ist die Schadenfreude.
Especially when so many on the EU side had taken so much glee in both our actual misfortunes, and in predicting new ones - remember how our vaccine deliveries were going to pile up at the border because of Brexit, anyone? So perhaps gegenseitig Schadenfreude is the more accurate description in this case.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract.
But how do we know that all the production shortfall is due to when contracts were signed?
Not all of it will be according to AZ. A lot of it is random, especially when starting out, as its not like making widgets or whatever so different facilities have experienced different delays. So there are bad luck delays, that have happened in both the UK and EU plants, delays from starting later and relative delays to the UK from having less capacity (due to less funding on the EU side).
The EU plants have had more back luck according to AZ. In addition the bad luck delays that happened in the UK also slow down the EU receiving doses as once we have been supplied with x million doses then some of the UK production goes to the EU.
Not "luck".
Accord to AZ the UK manufacturing faced the same delays but because the UK contract was signed for the UK three months earlier they've had three months more to fix the problems.
That the EU wasted three months before signing the contract, the manufacturing for the EU began three months late. That's not "luck".
From Soriots interview it is clear that in addition to the time delays the EU site experienced lower than expected yield in one of their main sites. Yes the EU wasted time in signing contracts and that is their fault, that does not rule out them experiencing bad luck further down the line, as they did.
“So maybe I need to give you a little bit of explanation as to how we manufacture those vaccines. Essentially, we have cell cultures, big batches, 1000-litre or 2000-litre batches. We have cell cultures inside those batches and we inject them with the virus, the vaccine, if you will. Then those cells produce the vaccine, it’s a biotechnology protection. Now, some of those batches have very high yield and others have low yield. Particularly in Europe, we had one site with large capacity that experienced yield issues."
I think you missed a bit.
'We've had also teething issues like this in the UK supply chain. But the UK contract was signed three months before the European vaccine deal. So with the UK we have had an extra three months to fix all the glitches we experienced. As for Europe, we are three months behind in fixing those glitches. '
I have not missed anything, I said the delays were a mix of:
Bad Luck - low yield in a big plant is bad luck Starting Late - as you keep re-iterating and I had already started Less Capacity
The German decision re AZ over 65’s is rather worrying.
What if it isn’t effective?
Are we going to have to rejab millions of over 65s with the other vaccines?
Lockdown could really drag on... or worse. We lift lockdown and get a 3rd wave.
Bollox
All the vaccines will have reduced efficacy in the old. We're not looking for perfection here - getting vaccinated as a herd will confer the protection we need though even with the drop off for the elderly.
The German decision re AZ over 65’s is rather worrying.
What if it isn’t effective?
Are we going to have to rejab millions of over 65s with the other vaccines?
Lockdown could really drag on... or worse. We lift lockdown and get a 3rd wave.
Bollox
That would be hugely surprising given the immune response was virtually identical between the younger and older cohorts. There is no evidence suggesting it isn't effective at all ages.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
I sincerely hope you're wrong. One of the selling points of Brexit was that we'd stop obsessing over everything the EU does and start start holding our own politicians to account with their newly granted sovereignty. I'm not seeing many signs of this yet: even now, some are more keen to boom about the EU's current Covid failings than they ever were about Boris's. It does make we wonder what these people really wanted out of Brexit.
I've got to say that I give the government only a small amount of credit for the vaccine situation. Whilst good I am sure they generally followed the civil service advice. Likewise I don't blame them nearly as much as some here for errors that were made earlier in crisis for the same reason.
With regards to the EU I voted remain but the current crisis demonstrates precisely why I was always uneasy about governance of the EU. I am pro-european having a languages degree and having worked abroad, but anyone without blinkers can see that, as someone said earlier, the EU slowly haggled over price when speed was the key factor. This structure that can be a strength in other areas like trade deals (we can only do X if the Walloons agree) is also a weakness for emergency decisions. And what can a European do to demonstrate their unhappiness - certainly not vote them out!
Let's be clear -we are in a better position because our government has committed casts sums of taxpayers money to be in this situation. It is a bit rich that the EU now want our supply.
I'm confused. Why does Germany have a vaccine committee? Is this shorthand for the EMA, or does each EU country have to sign off separately?
This is a draft recommendation from the Standing Vaccine Commission at the Robert Koch Institut, the leading German research body. It doesn't force the EMA to follow suit, but it's already been hinted that they are inclined to do so.
We need to be clear that nobody is saying that they have evidence that the AZ vaccine is ineffective for elderly people, merely that the sample size for this age group is so small that it doesn't prove that it is effective. Since the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine is in any case thought from the clinical trial to be lower than the Pfizer vaccine, it does make sense to try to prioritise Pfizer for the most vulnerable groups. Other considerations (freezer storage, organisation) make this complicated, but it's sensible if it can be done.
My impression is that in the UK we're just vaccinating as many as possible with whichever vaccine is to hand? That's understandable, but if we can tweak it to a "Pfizer if possible for the over-60s" policy that would make sense, and nothing to do with vaccine nationalism.
Thank you. I thought the over 65s cohort was large enough (albeit still smaller than ideal) and the issue was with the 75+ group, but I may have that wrong.
The UK is still vaccinating in descending age order (other than healthcare professionals), so most of the older groups will have had the Pfizer vaccine just because it arrived first and in greater quantities.
I thought all Care Home ones were not Pfizer ones due to storage issue
The German decision re AZ over 65’s is rather worrying.
What if it isn’t effective?
Are we going to have to rejab millions of over 65s with the other vaccines?
Lockdown could really drag on... or worse. We lift lockdown and get a 3rd wave.
Bollox
All the vaccines will have reduced efficacy in the old. We're not looking for perfection here - getting vaccinated as a herd will confer the protection we need though even with the drop off for the elderly.
Astra and a 12 week gap has a very good immune response btw, improves it from a shorter timescale. So not only are you winning by greater numbers vaccinated, you're also winning long term doing it that way too. 12 weeks with Astra is just winning all ways round.
Edit: The half dose/full dose people had a 12 week gap in the trial. It's that rather than the dosages which was likely responsible for improved efficacy.
Sturgeon is usually sure footed and competent. However criticising Johnson over a visit to Scotland seems a bit over the top and churlish.
Sturgeon isn't making these kind of photo op visits herself and chastised Prince William for doing so. So she is consistent. I suspect, unlike Johnson, Sturgeon doesn't enjoy them too much, so secretly relieved not to have to do them.
Johnson is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. English leaders since the time of Charles I usually end up deciding to keep visits to Scotland short and infrequent. There doesn't tend to be much of an upside to doing more of them.
The German decision re AZ over 65’s is rather worrying.
What if it isn’t effective?
Are we going to have to rejab millions of over 65s with the other vaccines?
Lockdown could really drag on... or worse. We lift lockdown and get a 3rd wave.
Bollox
Try not to worry. The Germans have taken the decision based on a lack of positive evidence, which was down to the lack of over 65 year olds in the Phase III trial, not because there is evidence it won't work. Its a fair decision, and I think if the pandemic wasn't so serious, the MHRA would have done similar here. The evidence from other work strongly suggests it will be fine, and there seems to be already evidence coming in in the UK suggesting the oldest age groups (i.e. the ones who have been receiving the vaccine) are seeing bigger falls in infection rates that the unvaccinated population. We'll need a few more weeks to be sure, but it looks good. Lastly, it seems that the Pfizer data for over 65 also lacks real statistical power. However, in general their phase III trial was better conducted overall than the AZ one (no issue with half dose vs full dose etc).
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract.
But how do we know that all the production shortfall is due to when contracts were signed?
Not all of it will be according to AZ. A lot of it is random, especially when starting out, as its not like making widgets or whatever so different facilities have experienced different delays. So there are bad luck delays, that have happened in both the UK and EU plants, delays from starting later and relative delays to the UK from having less capacity (due to less funding on the EU side).
The EU plants have had more back luck according to AZ. In addition the bad luck delays that happened in the UK also slow down the EU receiving doses as once we have been supplied with x million doses then some of the UK production goes to the EU.
Not "luck".
Accord to AZ the UK manufacturing faced the same delays but because the UK contract was signed for the UK three months earlier they've had three months more to fix the problems.
That the EU wasted three months before signing the contract, the manufacturing for the EU began three months late. That's not "luck".
From Soriots interview it is clear that in addition to the time delays the EU site experienced lower than expected yield in one of their main sites. Yes the EU wasted time in signing contracts and that is their fault, that does not rule out them experiencing bad luck further down the line, as they did.
“So maybe I need to give you a little bit of explanation as to how we manufacture those vaccines. Essentially, we have cell cultures, big batches, 1000-litre or 2000-litre batches. We have cell cultures inside those batches and we inject them with the virus, the vaccine, if you will. Then those cells produce the vaccine, it’s a biotechnology protection. Now, some of those batches have very high yield and others have low yield. Particularly in Europe, we had one site with large capacity that experienced yield issues."
I think you missed a bit.
'We've had also teething issues like this in the UK supply chain. But the UK contract was signed three months before the European vaccine deal. So with the UK we have had an extra three months to fix all the glitches we experienced. As for Europe, we are three months behind in fixing those glitches. '
I have not missed anything, I said the delays were a mix of:
Bad Luck - low yield in a big plant is bad luck Starting Late - as you keep re-iterating and I had already started Less Capacity
But low yield is not down to luck. The UK had the same yield problem and with time it is fixable.
The problem is the lack of time primarily.
If you head off on a long, complicated journey but leave yourself no time to tackle even a single (expected) distribution that's bad management not bad luck.
The German decision re AZ over 65’s is rather worrying.
What if it isn’t effective?
Are we going to have to rejab millions of over 65s with the other vaccines?
Lockdown could really drag on... or worse. We lift lockdown and get a 3rd wave.
Bollox
It is extremely unlikely that the fall off in efficacy is as large as the limited data might imply. None of the other vaccines that produce similar immune repsonses suggest this, neither does antibody data, nor does the hospitalisation data, and finally experience does not suggest this to be the case either. Right now it makes complete sense to assume that a similar immune response will occur, and by taking this tiny risk we can save many thousands of lives.
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
"Tight but we're confident of meeting our target" suggests that the government have the capacity to deliver but not the supply at present but think that more is on the way. Hopefully there's a big batch incoming, as it's easily possible for us to be doing 500k a day if the supply is there as demonstrated last week.
If I remember right this was the week we were expecting delays, especially with Pfizer. Hopefully back to full steam ahead next week.
Typical that an aspiration for the government is to reach equivalence to 19th century steam power.
Let's nuclear ahead.
Er, with odd exceptions in aerospace, nuclear power plants ARE steam engines.
Damn, and I was so proud of that joke. Oh well, next time.
The German decision re AZ over 65’s is rather worrying.
What if it isn’t effective?
It's the absence of clinical data (its unusual to test drugs on the elderly until they've checked out ok on the young) because we've done in 9 months what typically takes 6 years - which means you have to decide either to:
- wait for clinical data, or - use your judgement based on other available data - in this case a peer reviewed paper in the Lancet showing the response in the elderly was very similar to that in the young.
Given Germany also has the Pfizer vaccine its not an unreasonable decision - it will be a tougher call for those without Pfizer/its infrastructure.
Wait for "perfection" or go with "good enough".
Given the number of dead 65+ year olds we have I believe "good enough" is good enough.
Sky reporting AZ factory in Belgium was raided by Belgium authorities
Full Cartman......
I believe (I might be wrong) this is the same inspection reported yesterday: the Belgians authorities went in to check what was being exported where. That's a long way from a "raid", so this might just be hyperbolic reportage. Which is not unknown
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
"Tight but we're confident of meeting our target" suggests that the government have the capacity to deliver but not the supply at present but think that more is on the way. Hopefully there's a big batch incoming, as it's easily possible for us to be doing 500k a day if the supply is there as demonstrated last week.
If I remember right this was the week we were expecting delays, especially with Pfizer. Hopefully back to full steam ahead next week.
Typical that an aspiration for the government is to reach equivalence to 19th century steam power.
Let's nuclear ahead.
Er, with odd exceptions in aerospace, nuclear power plants ARE steam engines.
A steam engine blowing up never laid waste to vast areas of your nation.....
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
Isn't the upfront cost now 100x higher to do that?
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
Because you can't short if you can't get hold of a share to short it with and buyback.
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
"Tight but we're confident of meeting our target" suggests that the government have the capacity to deliver but not the supply at present but think that more is on the way. Hopefully there's a big batch incoming, as it's easily possible for us to be doing 500k a day if the supply is there as demonstrated last week.
If I remember right this was the week we were expecting delays, especially with Pfizer. Hopefully back to full steam ahead next week.
Typical that an aspiration for the government is to reach equivalence to 19th century steam power.
Let's nuclear ahead.
Er, with odd exceptions in aerospace, nuclear power plants ARE steam engines.
Damn, and I was so proud of that joke. Oh well, next time.
Even more - nuclear plants are generally quite low-pressure turbine systems. Very early 1900 pressures. The Soviets did look at high pressure primary loops. What they saw scared them. And that was the bunch that thought liquid metal coolant systems were just A-OK
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
"Tight but we're confident of meeting our target" suggests that the government have the capacity to deliver but not the supply at present but think that more is on the way. Hopefully there's a big batch incoming, as it's easily possible for us to be doing 500k a day if the supply is there as demonstrated last week.
If I remember right this was the week we were expecting delays, especially with Pfizer. Hopefully back to full steam ahead next week.
Typical that an aspiration for the government is to reach equivalence to 19th century steam power.
Let's nuclear ahead.
Er, with odd exceptions in aerospace, nuclear power plants ARE steam engines.
A steam engine blowing up never laid waste to vast areas of your nation.....
As @Carnyx was saying, Chernobyl was just a glorified steam engine, with a very complex heat generator.
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
I'd have thought so. All the small investors who have piled in need to choose a moment to realise their gains before the price returns to reality. It's inevitable that some of them will get it wrong, and not be happy about those that didn't.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
I don't see a single person here "gleeful" that the EU is troubled.
I see a lot of people acknowledging the EU is troubled, right down to williamglenn calling for UVDL's resignation on the subject. I see other people trying to whatabout or downplay just how serious this is.
The EU aren't just failing to protect their own citizens, they're jeopardising us. The science and technology exists to eradicate this damned nasty bug but because they've chosen to cheap out on it instead its going to remain on our continent and risks mutation and reintroduction into this country.
I don't see a single person happy about that.
There is some glee. You can only see it if you're not feeling it.
Or if you're a paranoid fool who projects emotions onto others.
I see more anger than glee. With an element of "I told you so" at the worst.
Next time you criticise anyone should I use the word "glee" about your emotions at the time?
I detect not project. Sorry, Philip, you're not fooling me on this one. I have a persona for every poster and yours is Gareth Keenan (or more accurately Mackenzie Crook). This means I can see your face as you post and atm, with this EU vaccine debacle, the expression etched upon it is ... well, it looks like glee.
The man never learns....he rushs in makes a load of tweets about stuff and then walks away like he isn't responsible for any of the shitstorm he has caused.
The very worst form of gutter journalism 'will cause great anxiety'. A combination of ignorance and maliciousness is the best interpretation I can think of.
Yes, that's pretty poor from Peston.
What a contrast with last night's show, which was, in my experience the ONLY mainstream TV show to explore the fantastic data from Israel (it earned a coloured bar graph from Nu-Allegra).
On that latter point, anybody know why the Israeli numbers aren't all over the bloody news? They have been around for nearly a week, and instead of focusing on them (the key story) the media is obsessing about an arbitrary milestone that we have known was coming for several weeks.
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
"Tight but we're confident of meeting our target" suggests that the government have the capacity to deliver but not the supply at present but think that more is on the way. Hopefully there's a big batch incoming, as it's easily possible for us to be doing 500k a day if the supply is there as demonstrated last week.
If I remember right this was the week we were expecting delays, especially with Pfizer. Hopefully back to full steam ahead next week.
Typical that an aspiration for the government is to reach equivalence to 19th century steam power.
Let's nuclear ahead.
Er, with odd exceptions in aerospace, nuclear power plants ARE steam engines.
Damn, and I was so proud of that joke. Oh well, next time.
Even more - nuclear plants are generally quite low-pressure turbine systems. Very early 1900 pressures. The Soviets did look at high pressure primary loops. What they saw scared them. And that was the bunch that thought liquid metal coolant systems were just A-OK
I should know this stuff, I watched Chernobyl damn it.
The man never learns....he rushs in makes a load of tweets about stuff and then walks away like he isn't responsible for any of the shitstorm he has caused.
The very worst form of gutter journalism 'will cause great anxiety'. A combination of ignorance and maliciousness is the best interpretation I can think of.
Yes, that's pretty poor from Peston.
What a contrast with last night's show, which was, in my experience the ONLY mainstream TV show to explore the fantastic data from Israel (it earned a coloured bar graph from Nu-Allegra).
On that latter point, anybody know why the Israeli numbers aren't all over the bloody news? They have been around for nearly a week, and instead of focusing on them (the key story) the media is obsessing about an arbitrary milestone that we have known was coming for several weeks.
Journalist can only fixate on one number at a time. And don't even get them started with one number divided by another.
The German decision re AZ over 65’s is rather worrying.
What if it isn’t effective?
It's the absence of clinical data (its unusual to test drugs on the elderly until they've checked out ok on the young) because we've done in 9 months what typically takes 6 years - which means you have to decide either to:
- wait for clinical data, or - use your judgement based on other available data - in this case a peer reviewed paper in the Lancet showing the response in the elderly was very similar to that in the young.
Given Germany also has the Pfizer vaccine its not an unreasonable decision - it will be a tougher call for those without Pfizer/its infrastructure.
Wait for "perfection" or go with "good enough".
Given the number of dead 65+ year olds we have I believe "good enough" is good enough.
Of course Pfizer shared the exact same issue!
Yet to hear any explanation as to why there was insufficient data for AZ but there's sufficient data for Pfizer - when the Pfizer vaccine too had so few numbers in its own subsample that it could be literally totally ineffective or even negative in the elderly confidence interval.
Why care about the subsample confidence interval for one but not the other?
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
Something like 140% of shares are already out on loan, impossible to short at the moment.
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
It may well be but short term it is a game of chicken trying to make the shorters go bust.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract.
But how do we know that all the production shortfall is due to when contracts were signed?
Not all of it will be according to AZ. A lot of it is random, especially when starting out, as its not like making widgets or whatever so different facilities have experienced different delays. So there are bad luck delays, that have happened in both the UK and EU plants, delays from starting later and relative delays to the UK from having less capacity (due to less funding on the EU side).
The EU plants have had more back luck according to AZ. In addition the bad luck delays that happened in the UK also slow down the EU receiving doses as once we have been supplied with x million doses then some of the UK production goes to the EU.
Not "luck".
Accord to AZ the UK manufacturing faced the same delays but because the UK contract was signed for the UK three months earlier they've had three months more to fix the problems.
That the EU wasted three months before signing the contract, the manufacturing for the EU began three months late. That's not "luck".
From Soriots interview it is clear that in addition to the time delays the EU site experienced lower than expected yield in one of their main sites. Yes the EU wasted time in signing contracts and that is their fault, that does not rule out them experiencing bad luck further down the line, as they did.
“So maybe I need to give you a little bit of explanation as to how we manufacture those vaccines. Essentially, we have cell cultures, big batches, 1000-litre or 2000-litre batches. We have cell cultures inside those batches and we inject them with the virus, the vaccine, if you will. Then those cells produce the vaccine, it’s a biotechnology protection. Now, some of those batches have very high yield and others have low yield. Particularly in Europe, we had one site with large capacity that experienced yield issues."
I think you missed a bit.
'We've had also teething issues like this in the UK supply chain. But the UK contract was signed three months before the European vaccine deal. So with the UK we have had an extra three months to fix all the glitches we experienced. As for Europe, we are three months behind in fixing those glitches. '
I have not missed anything, I said the delays were a mix of:
Bad Luck - low yield in a big plant is bad luck Starting Late - as you keep re-iterating and I had already started Less Capacity
But low yield is not down to luck. The UK had the same yield problem and with time it is fixable.
The problem is the lack of time primarily.
If you head off on a long, complicated journey but leave yourself no time to tackle even a single (expected) distribution that's bad management not bad luck.
What do you think the word particularly means? Luck was not equal. It is not a big deal, the narrative that the EU did badly still holds! But they were unlucky too.
One thing that can't be emphasized enough. This vaccination programme isn't like say MMR, where there is basically none of ithose diseases anyway and so you vaccination makes it virtually impossible to catch them.
This programme is about case reduction not at this stage elimination. In fact it is more than likely round 1 of something at worst could be every year at best something we have to do several times.
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
Something like 140% of shares are already out on loan, impossible to short at the moment.
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
Something like 140% of shares are already out on loan, impossible to short at the moment.
What are Gamestop saying in response to all this?
The execs are too busy diving into vaults full of money Scrooge McDuck style.
The German decision re AZ over 65’s is rather worrying.
What if it isn’t effective?
It's the absence of clinical data (its unusual to test drugs on the elderly until they've checked out ok on the young) because we've done in 9 months what typically takes 6 years - which means you have to decide either to:
- wait for clinical data, or - use your judgement based on other available data - in this case a peer reviewed paper in the Lancet showing the response in the elderly was very similar to that in the young.
Given Germany also has the Pfizer vaccine its not an unreasonable decision - it will be a tougher call for those without Pfizer/its infrastructure.
Wait for "perfection" or go with "good enough".
Given the number of dead 65+ year olds we have I believe "good enough" is good enough.
Of course Pfizer shared the exact same issue!
Yet to hear any explanation as to why there was insufficient data for AZ but there's sufficient data for Pfizer - when the Pfizer vaccine too had so few numbers in its own subsample that it could be literally totally ineffective or even negative in the elderly confidence interval.
Why care about the subsample confidence interval for one but not the other?
I think the overall efficacy was higher for Pfizer so there was a lesser issue than there is for AZ which is starting from a lower baseline.
I think the German decision is short sighted and hopefully their lockdown measures are strong enough to keep their older people safe while they wait a few months for Pfizer to supply enough doses.
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
It may well be but short term it is a game of chicken trying to make the shorters go bust.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract.
But how do we know that all the production shortfall is due to when contracts were signed?
Not all of it will be according to AZ. A lot of it is random, especially when starting out, as its not like making widgets or whatever so different facilities have experienced different delays. So there are bad luck delays, that have happened in both the UK and EU plants, delays from starting later and relative delays to the UK from having less capacity (due to less funding on the EU side).
The EU plants have had more back luck according to AZ. In addition the bad luck delays that happened in the UK also slow down the EU receiving doses as once we have been supplied with x million doses then some of the UK production goes to the EU.
Not "luck".
Accord to AZ the UK manufacturing faced the same delays but because the UK contract was signed for the UK three months earlier they've had three months more to fix the problems.
That the EU wasted three months before signing the contract, the manufacturing for the EU began three months late. That's not "luck".
From Soriots interview it is clear that in addition to the time delays the EU site experienced lower than expected yield in one of their main sites. Yes the EU wasted time in signing contracts and that is their fault, that does not rule out them experiencing bad luck further down the line, as they did.
“So maybe I need to give you a little bit of explanation as to how we manufacture those vaccines. Essentially, we have cell cultures, big batches, 1000-litre or 2000-litre batches. We have cell cultures inside those batches and we inject them with the virus, the vaccine, if you will. Then those cells produce the vaccine, it’s a biotechnology protection. Now, some of those batches have very high yield and others have low yield. Particularly in Europe, we had one site with large capacity that experienced yield issues."
I think you missed a bit.
'We've had also teething issues like this in the UK supply chain. But the UK contract was signed three months before the European vaccine deal. So with the UK we have had an extra three months to fix all the glitches we experienced. As for Europe, we are three months behind in fixing those glitches. '
I have not missed anything, I said the delays were a mix of:
Bad Luck - low yield in a big plant is bad luck Starting Late - as you keep re-iterating and I had already started Less Capacity
But low yield is not down to luck. The UK had the same yield problem and with time it is fixable.
The problem is the lack of time primarily.
If you head off on a long, complicated journey but leave yourself no time to tackle even a single (expected) distribution that's bad management not bad luck.
What do you think the word particularly means? Luck was not equal. It is not a big deal, the narrative that the EU did badly still holds! But they were unlucky too.
Luck was equal. The same issue hit both the UK and EU. The same problem. So that's not luck.
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
Well, you can look at that two ways: - No evidence AZN is effective in over 65s -> don't give the vaccine - No evidence AZN effectiveness in over 65s is different to effectiveness in under 65s, for whom it is effective -> give the vaccine Both technically true. Take your pick.
I don't know whether this is done in the assessments/trials, but I'd be inclined (I'm no virologist, just an epidemiologist without expertise in this area; I've not even done much trial work) to try and model the response with age, e.g. interaction of age and vaccination status against infection risk, so that you can pick up whether there's evidence for a decrease in efficacy with age and the extent of that.
That I think would be the double negative approach I was talking about. (No reason not to). I am not a subject matter expert, but I do have quite a lot of experience in regulation in other fields. In general you are required to evidence against set criteria. Saying, we will ignore these criteria because we don't have the data, but we'll make some assumptions and model those instead doesn't cut it. I could imagine a reason why they want trial data for the over 65s is a hypothesis the vaccine behaves differently in that age group, just as the virus itself does.
In the unusual circumstances we're in, they may be better being open about it: our job is to make sure the vaccine is safe, to get it out there. The efficacy is what it is. We'll get more data on that soon enough.
Yep, you're never going to approve on a model if your criteria are to demonstrate efficacy in a particular age range. I'd just be interested to see it/curves of other slicing of efficacy with age to see what the effects are, purely for interest and whether they vary between the vaccines. I'm sure we'll get those analyses in due course.
Is it normal to split at 65 years in Germany, EMA, medical regulation in general? There was a suggestion downthread that MHRA used 55. You could get different results depending on the age of split and the age of the cases over 65 years - example, if you move your split to 75 years, you'd find evidence of efficacy for the under 75 year age group and no evidence for the over 75 due to lack of cases (either 2 in a smaller sample if the two cases were >75 years, 1 or 0).
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
Aren't they being outnumbered by the amateurs?
They're up against people with the motto "We can stay retarded longer than they can stay solvent".
See German report says insufficient data on the effectiveness of the Astra Zeneca vaccine on over 65's and suggesting that age range should not have it because of probable low resistance!!!! Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Help, they gave it to me on Monday!!!!
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
Something like 140% of shares are already out on loan, impossible to short at the moment.
You've just blown a fuse in my brain with that statement.
I feel like that statement can be interpreted in several ways and he probably knows it. The SNP probably agree Boris is an asset, of sorts, for Scotland to achieve certain things.
If he dropped the "et" bit he would have been more accurate
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
That is what they are doing. There are still plenty of shares available to borrow (edit: apparently - as of Friday). But they are facing a concerted effort to keep them going up and to keep the short squeeze going. Up another 20% today.
It's like being at the casino and playing double your money on losses. Can you afford to keep the short on amidst the margin calls.
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
Something like 140% of shares are already out on loan, impossible to short at the moment.
Robinhood app, popular amongst retail investors in the US isn't letting people buy the shorted stocks. It's a quick way to go out of business.
Comments
https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1354788359131058180
I wonder how that would play out?
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1354784442947170307
However criticising Johnson over a visit to Scotland seems a bit over the top and churlish.
Maybe some competition on the doorstep of the EU is good for a bit of good ole fashioned innovation.
You should work for Virgin.
This whole story shows the UK politicians being held to account.
Being contrasted with the EU is completely different to them being able to point to the EU, shrug and say "its an EU matter, nothing I can do".
Let's nuclear ahead.
Didn't you know the 21st century is all about wind power?
So let's be full of hot air.
In the unusual circumstances we're in, they may be better being open about it: our job is to make sure the vaccine is safe, to get it out there. The efficacy is what it is. We'll get more data on that soon enough.
The EU plants have had more back luck according to AZ. In addition the bad luck delays that happened in the UK also slow down the EU receiving doses as once we have been supplied with x million doses then some of the UK production goes to the EU.
And what stops it being against the law is his interpretation of need and work.
If a relative of mine can get married with just two people present - the witnesses - on the principle of minimising risk, and doing without any wedding lunch never mind reception on the same principle, then Mr J can bloody well reduce his extracurricular activities to a minimum.
Accord to AZ the UK manufacturing faced the same delays but because the UK contract was signed for the UK three months earlier they've had three months more to fix the problems.
That the EU wasted three months before signing the contract, the manufacturing for the EU began three months late. That's not "luck".
In normal times, and/or if you had a risk-averse population, I'm sure you'd tell them to go back and do it properly this time.
I accept that these are not normal times.
Especially when so many on the EU side had taken so much glee in both our actual misfortunes, and in predicting new ones - remember how our vaccine deliveries were going to pile up at the border because of Brexit, anyone? So perhaps gegenseitig Schadenfreude is the more accurate description in this case.
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1354771767542296577?s=20
“So maybe I need to give you a little bit of explanation as to how we manufacture those vaccines. Essentially, we have cell cultures, big batches, 1000-litre or 2000-litre batches. We have cell cultures inside those batches and we inject them with the virus, the vaccine, if you will. Then those cells produce the vaccine, it’s a biotechnology protection. Now, some of those batches have very high yield and others have low yield. Particularly in Europe, we had one site with large capacity that experienced yield issues."
What if it isn’t effective?
Are we going to have to rejab millions of over 65s with the other vaccines?
Lockdown could really drag on... or worse. We lift lockdown and get a 3rd wave.
Bollox
https://twitter.com/politico/status/1354795175831343107
'We've had also teething issues like this in the UK supply chain. But the UK contract was signed three months before the European vaccine deal. So with the UK we have had an extra three months to fix all the glitches we experienced. As for Europe, we are three months behind in fixing those glitches. '
But this does have massive tabloid potential for tomorrow. The Germans are effectively saying our vaccine is gerald ratner. Might be ok to fob off our senior citizens with it but it's not "pure" enough for Aryan veins.
There'll be quite some brainstorming going on at the Mail and the Sun, I'd wager.
Bad Luck - low yield in a big plant is bad luck
Starting Late - as you keep re-iterating and I had already started
Less Capacity
With regards to the EU I voted remain but the current crisis demonstrates precisely why I was always uneasy about governance of the EU. I am pro-european having a languages degree and having worked abroad, but anyone without blinkers can see that, as someone said earlier, the EU slowly haggled over price when speed was the key factor. This structure that can be a strength in other areas like trade deals (we can only do X if the Walloons agree) is also a weakness for emergency decisions. And what can a European do to demonstrate their unhappiness - certainly not vote them out!
Let's be clear -we are in a better position because our government has committed casts sums of taxpayers money to be in this situation. It is a bit rich that the EU now want our supply.
Edit: The half dose/full dose people had a 12 week gap in the trial. It's that rather than the dosages which was likely responsible for improved efficacy.
Johnson is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. English leaders since the time of Charles I usually end up deciding to keep visits to Scotland short and infrequent. There doesn't tend to be much of an upside to doing more of them.
Lastly, it seems that the Pfizer data for over 65 also lacks real statistical power. However, in general their phase III trial was better conducted overall than the AZ one (no issue with half dose vs full dose etc).
The problem is the lack of time primarily.
If you head off on a long, complicated journey but leave yourself no time to tackle even a single (expected) distribution that's bad management not bad luck.
I don't pretend to entirely understand the mechanics behind this but if the shares are bouncing along at 100 times what they are really worth, isn't now exactly the time to short them? Why wouldn't even those hedge funds that have lost money so far just pile back in?
- wait for clinical data, or
- use your judgement based on other available data - in this case a peer reviewed paper in the Lancet showing the response in the elderly was very similar to that in the young.
Given Germany also has the Pfizer vaccine its not an unreasonable decision - it will be a tougher call for those without Pfizer/its infrastructure.
Wait for "perfection" or go with "good enough".
Given the number of dead 65+ year olds we have I believe "good enough" is good enough.
What a contrast with last night's show, which was, in my experience the ONLY mainstream TV show to explore the fantastic data from Israel (it earned a coloured bar graph from Nu-Allegra).
On that latter point, anybody know why the Israeli numbers aren't all over the bloody news? They have been around for nearly a week, and instead of focusing on them (the key story) the media is obsessing about an arbitrary milestone that we have known was coming for several weeks.
Yet to hear any explanation as to why there was insufficient data for AZ but there's sufficient data for Pfizer - when the Pfizer vaccine too had so few numbers in its own subsample that it could be literally totally ineffective or even negative in the elderly confidence interval.
Why care about the subsample confidence interval for one but not the other?
This programme is about case reduction not at this stage elimination. In fact it is more than likely round 1 of something at worst could be every year at best something we have to do several times.
"Lovely place you have here. Be a real shame if it burnt down one night...."
I think the German decision is short sighted and hopefully their lockdown measures are strong enough to keep their older people safe while they wait a few months for Pfizer to supply enough doses.
The only difference? Not luck, time.
Is it normal to split at 65 years in Germany, EMA, medical regulation in general? There was a suggestion downthread that MHRA used 55. You could get different results depending on the age of split and the age of the cases over 65 years - example, if you move your split to 75 years, you'd find evidence of efficacy for the under 75 year age group and no evidence for the over 75 due to lack of cases (either 2 in a smaller sample if the two cases were >75 years, 1 or 0).
People have borrowed shares that don't exist?
It's like being at the casino and playing double your money on losses. Can you afford to keep the short on amidst the margin calls.
But yes, sanity says they will fall.