You would think Labour would/should be doing a lot better than "neck and neck" given the circumstances?
My impression was that we were expecting clear Tory leads after the Brexit deal and vaccine roll out.
My guess, from talking to people, is that the vaccination thing hasn't really filtered through to the politically uninvolved yet.
Yes, granny is getting her jab. But the scale of what is going on, is curiously below the radar. Yes, it is on the BBC etc, but it doesn't seem to have sunk in.
Well the media aren't giving the government any credit either....today it is still all about how the government have got the programme wrong, they are hiding delivery data, they are distributing it unfairly to different regions....
Unlike during the first wave where we got a chart every night saying look this is how shit the UK is doing vs every other European country on testing, cases, deaths...strangely these graphs on vaccinations, rarely appear.
Instead we are just told Israel doing amazing....far better than the UK.
The British media obviously see it as their sacred duty to magnify our failures and scorn our successes. Because Brexit, or Empire, or Tories, or something...
They did that for the previous 25 years, while unemployment, inflation, interest rates and crime (you know, the stuff that politics used to be about) were all declining. Karma!
There really needs to be a push to have community leaders changing minds on this. Otherwise, race relations are going to be set back hugely, should high levels of Covid in ethnic communities be the reason that areas are staying in high tiers even though the rest of the community has been vaxxed. There's going to be a very vocal element saying "fuck 'em, they had their chance, why should my local stay closed?"
Isn't this "community leaders" thing a bit patronising? As if EMs can't think for themselves. You never hear about white people having to be encouraged to do things via their community leaders, much as the Archbishop of Canterbury might like it to be so.
There's a fine line to tread between paronising and insulting, but when a much larger proportion in ethnic communities are refusing the vaccine, then you have to ask why? And who can turn that around?
Because it looks dangerously like they aren't thinking. Just giving in to some wholly undeserved primal fear of science.
You are slipping dangerously between two different lines.
What are their objections to vaccination and how can those be addressed? That is asking why and who can turn it around. That is not the same as blaming unthinking prejudice that will magically evaporate when they see Diane Abbott with a needle in her arm.
There does not appear to be a rational explanation for the refusal of many to have the vaccine. The numbers in the UK as a whole have now gone to 80% saying they will have the vaccine, but barely 50% in certain communitites, especially the south Asian community. It's a very real thing.
There needs to be an urgent understanding of why - and who can turn this around. I'm thinking Boris on the telly saying "get the jab" is going to make fuck all difference to them. But something has to. Or else you are going to be seeing stubbornly high infection levels in those communities into the summer, holding back the wider communities going from Tier 4 to Tier 3 or even 2. And when people start blaming one section of the community for their own Covid restrictions, that is a recipe for disaster.
So what is being done to prevent that, is what I am asking.
Yes but without knowing what the objections are, and they might be different between communities, it is hard to address them. I cannot see the paywalled Times article, and could not see the question on (the separate) Yougov site.
They might be perfectly rational. Did the clinical trials include all ethnicities, for instance? After all, that lack of testing is the reason we do not propose vaccinating children. Is there a rumour the vaccine is not halal or kosher or whatever? Is it as simple as being unable to read the leaflets? Do some nationalities have experience of governments misusing vaccination programmes?
It's a mixture, the Windrush scandal is one factor, which might partly explain why '72 per cent of black people were reluctant to have the vaccine. '
In the Muslim community, 'in Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities the figure was 42 per cent and there was also a high level of scepticism among people from east European backgrounds.' one explanation is this
'CIA organised fake vaccination drive to get Osama bin Laden's family DNA
Senior Pakistani doctor who organised vaccine programme in Abbottabad arrested by ISI for working with US agents'
FWIW it is worth my father is getting vaccinated next week so he can go and vaccinate ethnic minorities.
For the last twenty years he has spent persuading reluctant parents (of all backgrounds) in getting the MMR vaccine because of well you know that bellend Andrew Wakefield, so I'm certain my father can persuade the vaccine sceptics.
There really needs to be a push to have community leaders changing minds on this. Otherwise, race relations are going to be set back hugely, should high levels of Covid in ethnic communities be the reason that areas are staying in high tiers even though the rest of the community has been vaxxed. There's going to be a very vocal element saying "fuck 'em, they had their chance, why should my local stay closed?"
Isn't this "community leaders" thing a bit patronising? As if EMs can't think for themselves. You never hear about white people having to be encouraged to do things via their community leaders, much as the Archbishop of Canterbury might like it to be so.
There's a fine line to tread between paronising and insulting, but when a much larger proportion in ethnic communities are refusing the vaccine, then you have to ask why? And who can turn that around?
Because it looks dangerously like they aren't thinking. Just giving in to some wholly undeserved primal fear of science.
You are slipping dangerously between two different lines.
What are their objections to vaccination and how can those be addressed? That is asking why and who can turn it around. That is not the same as blaming unthinking prejudice that will magically evaporate when they see Diane Abbott with a needle in her arm.
There does not appear to be a rational explanation for the refusal of many to have the vaccine. The numbers in the UK as a whole have now gone to 80% saying they will have the vaccine, but barely 50% in certain communitites, especially the south Asian community. It's a very real thing.
There needs to be an urgent understanding of why - and who can turn this around. I'm thinking Boris on the telly saying "get the jab" is going to make fuck all difference to them. But something has to. Or else you are going to be seeing stubbornly high infection levels in those communities into the summer, holding back the wider communities going from Tier 4 to Tier 3 or even 2. And when people start blaming one section of the community for their own Covid restrictions, that is a recipe for disaster.
So what is being done to prevent that, is what I am asking.
Yes but without knowing what the objections are, and they might be different between communities, it is hard to address them. I cannot see the paywalled Times article, and could not see the question on (the separate) Yougov site.
They might be perfectly rational. Did the clinical trials include all ethnicities, for instance? After all, that lack of testing is the reason we do not propose vaccinating children. Is there a rumour the vaccine is not halal or kosher or whatever? Is it as simple as being unable to read the leaflets? Do some nationalities have experience of governments misusing vaccination programmes?
It seems - as far as I can find - that the objections are based on source culture. To absolutely no surprise, whatsoever.
So people from country X seem to have a variant of anti-vax-culture from country X.
The fact this is a surprise is something I find funny.
There is an additional layer of culture involved - the memes etc of American culture are widespread here now, in the young. So Tuskegee is apparently an issue being waved around in some communities....
About those communities reluctant to have a jab, it would be a good idea if the "community leaders" set an example by themselves having jabs with some publicity. Otherwise when it has died down there will still be continuing embers in the fire ready to flare up again.
Nearly as embarrassing as your comment on Kamala Harris not experiencing racism.
It looks like we have turned the corner on people in hospital. However, those on mechanical ventilation still going up slightly.
The lockdown is working, but unlike November we need to stick with it until cases have been brought all the way down.
Yes, reducing the numbers is a good thing, but the absolute numbers are still more important. The number of people getting infected in the UK is still around the same level as it was at Christmas, which was everyone thought shockingly high.
Hence the other danger of getting too happy about the (genuine) progress with vaccination.
It's really important that we recognise, as a society, that we're in a deep hole now, and vaccination is about making the summer better.
We're not home and dry. And whilst we have a better flannel than other nations, it's not yet a towel.
I'm reading the Battle of Singapore at present, which is a campaign that's always fascinated me, particularly as we outnumbered the Japanese so significantly.
At the end of the day Malaya was bottom of the list for men and materials, as we were fighting for survival in Europe, so it got green troops and no tanks, modern fighter or bomber aircraft, or aircraft carriers, few ships, and had to make do with men, armoured cars, field artillery and anti-tank rifles. And a handful of obsolescent aircraft.
It could never have held out forever given that but the reason it fell in 2 months (rather than 5-6 months, with at least the prospect of a stalemate) is due to immense racial prejudice against the Japanese, myth-making about "Fortress Singapore", which was just wishful thinking, and poor officers.
.
He'd have made a good staff officer, but very senior command is far more about character. It's like the difference between a good psephological statistician and a successful gambler.
Thanks .
In the Army, of course, it's a gross failure at the top if they don't recognise it for you and lose a war because of routine promotion. Does it give Percival's background and how he came to get that role?
Interestingly, Percival had a civilianmbat.
I know what you mean. One still fears being deemed as a failure unless you reach the top of your business or profession, but it's not for everyone.
Why would it be?
Putting a political/intelligance officer in charge of a large army is unlikely to end well, since the skilsets are so different. Typically, as the former, you're working on your own, or else in charge of small numbers of people, and taking decisions very informally, and often acting well above your pay grade. In the 19th century, lots of Russian and British politicals were people whose formal rank was no higher than captain.
Wikipedia etc suggests that Percival wasn't overly impressed with the troops he had to command, or the general arrangements for defence of Malaya and Singapore.
I was prompted by CR's post to read up about Percival. His WWI career was actually outstanding. But, he was never in command of more than a battalion. Until you actually put someone in command of an army, yuo've no real idea how good they'll be at it.
A historic problem in the British army is that people get promoted to general on the basis of Buggins' Turn.
If we can get through groups 1 to 9 in 12 weeks, we can then go back round the loop and give them all their second jab asap before moving on to the under 50s.
Disclosure: I'm in Group 9.
Actually, this makes me ask the question: Which has more benefit - giving an 80 year old their second jab or giving a 49 year old their first?
On pure statistics, assuming vaccination effectiveness is the same for both groups.:
80: IFR = 11.6%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 2 result over jab 1 result = 15% => 1.74% decrease in fatalities 49: IFR - 0.5%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 1 result over no jab = 80% => 0.4% decrease in fatalities
So you are right, giving the 2nd jab to 80-year-olds before the 1st jab to 49-year-olds makes sense, providing the assumption that successful uptake of the vaccine is the same in both groups. Unlikely - but I doubt the difference will make up for that difference in the expected reduction in fatalities.
About those communities reluctant to have a jab, it would be a good idea if the "community leaders" set an example by themselves having jabs with some publicity. Otherwise when it has died down there will still be continuing embers in the fire ready to flare up again.
Nearly as embarrassing as your comment on Kamala Harris not experiencing racism.
I have suggested before that there is a very real role for the LibDems as a party of local Government, whilst having little aspiration to govern nationally. They aren't going to win a majorty of seats. They got kicked in the nuts when they were part of a coalition. Westminster is a dead end. What is the point of having a great success that takes them to 18 MPs?
Win councils. Govern well. Show what local government under the LibDem s can deliver that national government can't or won't. EU Parliament seats have gone. Westminster seats are a total distraction. Play to your strengths, guys.
Well, if the LDs don't win some Parliamentary seats, we'll have either Conservative or Labour Governments in perpetuity and the decline of this country will continue unabated.
Where I do agree is the Westminster seats won in 1997 weren't won simply because the Conservatives were crap and everyone as fed up with them (probably the same in 2029 if not 2024) but because of years of local activity including control of local councils such as Sutton was a big help. What really damaged the LDs was losing the local authority power base during the Blair/Brown years and after 2010.
Absent some shiny new third party, you are going to have either Conservative or Labour Governments in perpetuity. There is not a third "LibDem option". Get over it. If you believe that means further decline of this country, stem that decline the only way your party can - at local level.
I'm torn between that shows Scots aren't civilised enough to be independent and that I want Scotland to go independent because I don't want to part of a people who think that's acceptable toppings on pizza.
If we can get through groups 1 to 9 in 12 weeks, we can then go back round the loop and give them all their second jab asap before moving on to the under 50s.
Disclosure: I'm in Group 9.
Actually, this makes me ask the question: Which has more benefit - giving an 80 year old their second jab or giving a 49 year old their first?
On pure statistics, assuming vaccination effectiveness is the same for both groups.:
80: IFR = 11.6%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 2 result over jab 1 result = 15% => 1.74% decrease in fatalities 49: IFR - 0.5%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 1 result over no jab = 80% => 0.4% decrease in fatalities
So you are right, giving the 2nd jab to 80-year-olds before the 1st jab to 49-year-olds makes sense, providing the assumption that successful uptake of the vaccine is the same in both groups. Unlikely - but I doubt the difference will make up for that difference in the expected reduction in fatalities.
With the current rates we're going to be able to do both at the same time. I expect the single dose J&J will be used primarily on the unreliable young who can't easily be relied on to come back for the second dose "now that everything's fine".
Many thanks. An awful lot of what we "know" about WWI comes down to Alan Clark's book, The Donkeys. Reading Castastrophe, by Max Hastings, dispelled a lot of the wrong ideas I had about WWI.
Few scholars would take The Donkeys seriously, but OTOH, I do think his Barbarossa has really stood the test of time. It lacked the benefit of much in the way of Russian primary sources, (it was written in the 1960's) and has some odd gaps (little about the Siege of Leningrad, and only two chapters covering the year after Kursk) but I think his judgements about the 1941-43 period are very sound.
He is unsparing in his criticisms of the German High Command, and implicates them (and not just the SS) in atrocities, and offers justified praise for the fighting qualities of the Red Army, all of which would have gone against the grain of popular history in the 1960's.
What shocks me, Sean, is how many people seem to take Blackadder (a comedy show) seriously.
Catastrophe by Max Hastings is excellent. And very readable.
We didn't have much of a choice once Belgium was invaded.
The Germans would have won. Once that had happened they'd have dominated the Channel and the North sea, and our supply lines, and our word as an ally and upholder of the international order would never have been taken seriously again - risking our long-term isolation and a supplicant rather than a world power.
We had to fight.
I love Blackadder, but no one should take it seriously as history.
Far from feasting in chateaux behind the lines, in WWI, 78 British and Empire generals were killed, and 146 injured or taken prisoner.
Yes but that is mainly from the start of the war. By the end, generals had stopped visiting the front lines in full dress uniform. As any viewer of Blackadder will know, the character with the highest casualty risk was Lieutenant George, the subaltern straight out of public school leading the men over the top with a pistol in his hand and whistle to his lips.
For sure, casualty levels between Second Lieutenant and Major were horrendous. In many ways, that was alawys the job of a subaltern, to set an example of dauntless courage to the lower ranks.
One of the most moving stories I read recently was of Iraqi junior officers during the Gulf War, who stood up in front of the trenches their men were hiding in, in the face of allied air attack. They did it to stop their men running away. They may not have been very efficient, but their courage was unquestionable.
My wife and arrived at the Venue Cymru centre car park 10 minutes before our appointment.
We were directed to the parking area (free) and from there walked to the centre, wearing masks and keeping social distanced.
A pleasant young member of the army asked us several questions and we were told to follow the arrows.
Lots of very pleasant volunteers directed us as we passed various checks before registering and then were shown into the huge hall. We were summoned to an area and introduced to a doctor who was to immunise us both. She was lovely and chatty, asking various questions, and then explaining about the Pfizer vaccine re its storage and how it is administered. She then gave us our injections and we were shown to an area to stay seated, socially distanced, for 15 minutes
The doctor told us they will have vaccinated 800 starting at 8.00am continuing to 8.00pm
We walked to the car and the time taken including the 15 minute wait was approx 35 minutes and each and everyone involved in the logistics and delivery of the vaccines were absolutely marvelous
There really needs to be a push to have community leaders changing minds on this. Otherwise, race relations are going to be set back hugely, should high levels of Covid in ethnic communities be the reason that areas are staying in high tiers even though the rest of the community has been vaxxed. There's going to be a very vocal element saying "fuck 'em, they had their chance, why should my local stay closed?"
Isn't this "community leaders" thing a bit patronising? As if EMs can't think for themselves. You never hear about white people having to be encouraged to do things via their community leaders, much as the Archbishop of Canterbury might like it to be so.
There's a fine line to tread between paronising and insulting, but when a much larger proportion in ethnic communities are refusing the vaccine, then you have to ask why? And who can turn that around?
Because it looks dangerously like they aren't thinking. Just giving in to some wholly undeserved primal fear of science.
You are slipping dangerously between two different lines.
What are their objections to vaccination and how can those be addressed? That is asking why and who can turn it around. That is not the same as blaming unthinking prejudice that will magically evaporate when they see Diane Abbott with a needle in her arm.
There does not appear to be a rational explanation for the refusal of many to have the vaccine. The numbers in the UK as a whole have now gone to 80% saying they will have the vaccine, but barely 50% in certain communitites, especially the south Asian community. It's a very real thing.
There needs to be an urgent understanding of why - and who can turn this around. I'm thinking Boris on the telly saying "get the jab" is going to make fuck all difference to them. But something has to. Or else you are going to be seeing stubbornly high infection levels in those communities into the summer, holding back the wider communities going from Tier 4 to Tier 3 or even 2. And when people start blaming one section of the community for their own Covid restrictions, that is a recipe for disaster.
So what is being done to prevent that, is what I am asking.
Yes but without knowing what the objections are, and they might be different between communities, it is hard to address them. I cannot see the paywalled Times article, and could not see the question on (the separate) Yougov site.
They might be perfectly rational. Did the clinical trials include all ethnicities, for instance? After all, that lack of testing is the reason we do not propose vaccinating children. Is there a rumour the vaccine is not halal or kosher or whatever? Is it as simple as being unable to read the leaflets? Do some nationalities have experience of governments misusing vaccination programmes?
It seems - as far as I can find - that the objections are based on source culture. To absolutely no surprise, whatsoever.
So people from country X seem to have a variant of anti-vax-culture from country X.
The fact this is a surprise is something I find funny.
There is an additional layer of culture involved - the memes etc of American culture are widespread here now, in the young. So Tuskegee is apparently an issue being waved around in some communities....
It would be interesting to see if there is heightened vaccine scepticism amongst our own alt-right types, not because of Brexit but following Donald Trump's lead on the hoax.
I would have thought that Biden more than anyone else would be wary of a policy that explicitly seeks to overturn the results of an election.
Yes, it seems extremely unlikely that Biden will be basing his European foreign policy around reversing Brexit. It's much more likely that he'll argue for the UK to stay close to the EU on military and foreign policy matters, I think he might even pursue a NATO foreign policy objective.
I'm torn between that shows Scots aren't civilised enough to be independent and that I want Scotland to go independent because I don't want to part of a people who think that's acceptable toppings on pizza.
No way any self respecting human would eat that , SUN must have paid them to make one of those and come out with such porkies. Bet they have sold ZERO if it is indeed available.
There really needs to be a push to have community leaders changing minds on this. Otherwise, race relations are going to be set back hugely, should high levels of Covid in ethnic communities be the reason that areas are staying in high tiers even though the rest of the community has been vaxxed. There's going to be a very vocal element saying "fuck 'em, they had their chance, why should my local stay closed?"
Isn't this "community leaders" thing a bit patronising? As if EMs can't think for themselves. You never hear about white people having to be encouraged to do things via their community leaders, much as the Archbishop of Canterbury might like it to be so.
There's a fine line to tread between paronising and insulting, but when a much larger proportion in ethnic communities are refusing the vaccine, then you have to ask why? And who can turn that around?
Because it looks dangerously like they aren't thinking. Just giving in to some wholly undeserved primal fear of science.
You are slipping dangerously between two different lines.
What are their objections to vaccination and how can those be addressed? That is asking why and who can turn it around. That is not the same as blaming unthinking prejudice that will magically evaporate when they see Diane Abbott with a needle in her arm.
There does not appear to be a rational explanation for the refusal of many to have the vaccine. The numbers in the UK as a whole have now gone to 80% saying they will have the vaccine, but barely 50% in certain communitites, especially the south Asian community. It's a very real thing.
There needs to be an urgent understanding of why - and who can turn this around. I'm thinking Boris on the telly saying "get the jab" is going to make fuck all difference to them. But something has to. Or else you are going to be seeing stubbornly high infection levels in those communities into the summer, holding back the wider communities going from Tier 4 to Tier 3 or even 2. And when people start blaming one section of the community for their own Covid restrictions, that is a recipe for disaster.
So what is being done to prevent that, is what I am asking.
Yes but without knowing what the objections are, and they might be different between communities, it is hard to address them. I cannot see the paywalled Times article, and could not see the question on (the separate) Yougov site.
They might be perfectly rational. Did the clinical trials include all ethnicities, for instance? After all, that lack of testing is the reason we do not propose vaccinating children. Is there a rumour the vaccine is not halal or kosher or whatever? Is it as simple as being unable to read the leaflets? Do some nationalities have experience of governments misusing vaccination programmes?
It seems - as far as I can find - that the objections are based on source culture. To absolutely no surprise, whatsoever.
So people from country X seem to have a variant of anti-vax-culture from country X.
The fact this is a surprise is something I find funny.
There is an additional layer of culture involved - the memes etc of American culture are widespread here now, in the young. So Tuskegee is apparently an issue being waved around in some communities....
It would be interesting to see if there is heightened vaccine scepticism amongst our own alt-right types, not because of Brexit but following Donald Trump's lead on the hoax.
They tend to be worried that 5 minutes after the vaccination they will be trying to buy a Microsoft Zune.
But yes - the 5G thing is also largely an American import, I believe, but more from the Goop/Crystals Make Everything Better crowd.
Many thanks. An awful lot of what we "know" about WWI comes down to Alan Clark's book, The Donkeys. Reading Castastrophe, by Max Hastings, dispelled a lot of the wrong ideas I had about WWI.
Few scholars would take The Donkeys seriously, but OTOH, I do think his Barbarossa has really stood the test of time. It lacked the benefit of much in the way of Russian primary sources, (it was written in the 1960's) and has some odd gaps (little about the Siege of Leningrad, and only two chapters covering the year after Kursk) but I think his judgements about the 1941-43 period are very sound.
He is unsparing in his criticisms of the German High Command, and implicates them (and not just the SS) in atrocities, and offers justified praise for the fighting qualities of the Red Army, all of which would have gone against the grain of popular history in the 1960's.
What shocks me, Sean, is how many people seem to take Blackadder (a comedy show) seriously.
Catastrophe by Max Hastings is excellent. And very readable.
We didn't have much of a choice once Belgium was invaded.
The Germans would have won. Once that had happened they'd have dominated the Channel and the North sea, and our supply lines, and our word as an ally and upholder of the international order would never have been taken seriously again - risking our long-term isolation and a supplicant rather than a world power.
We had to fight.
I love Blackadder, but no one should take it seriously as history.
Far from feasting in chateaux behind the lines, in WWI, 78 British and Empire generals were killed, and 146 injured or taken prisoner.
Yes but that is mainly from the start of the war. By the end, generals had stopped visiting the front lines in full dress uniform. As any viewer of Blackadder will know, the character with the highest casualty risk was Lieutenant George, the subaltern straight out of public school leading the men over the top with a pistol in his hand and whistle to his lips.
For sure, casualty levels between Second Lieutenant and Major were horrendous. In many ways, that was alawys the job of a subaltern, to set an example of dauntless courage to the lower ranks.
One of the most moving stories I read recently was of Iraqi junior officers during the Gulf War, who stood up in front of the trenches their men were hiding in, in the face of allied air attack. They did it to stop their men running away. They may not have been very efficient, but their courage was unquestionable.
And in Vietnam, the Lts got it from both sides ...
In total honestly I love Pizza precisely because I think it is so versatile and if they can manage to sell that, fantastic, but it would never occur to me in a million years to try it.
About those communities reluctant to have a jab, it would be a good idea if the "community leaders" set an example by themselves having jabs with some publicity. Otherwise when it has died down there will still be continuing embers in the fire ready to flare up again.
Nearly as embarrassing as your comment on Kamala Harris not experiencing racism.
Hoping it will soon be doing 300-500 vaccinations a day is a decent beacon of hope, albeit with not the brightest of bulbs. We need to see this setting a trend, not being a one-off worthy of a BBC page in itself.
I would have thought that Biden more than anyone else would be wary of a policy that explicitly seeks to overturn the results of an election.
There seems to be a number of articles being written at the moment, which assume that the Biden administration will be very interested in the subject that they, the author, will be.
If we can get through groups 1 to 9 in 12 weeks, we can then go back round the loop and give them all their second jab asap before moving on to the under 50s.
Disclosure: I'm in Group 9.
Actually, this makes me ask the question: Which has more benefit - giving an 80 year old their second jab or giving a 49 year old their first?
On pure statistics, assuming vaccination effectiveness is the same for both groups.:
80: IFR = 11.6%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 2 result over jab 1 result = 15% => 1.74% decrease in fatalities 49: IFR - 0.5%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 1 result over no jab = 80% => 0.4% decrease in fatalities
So you are right, giving the 2nd jab to 80-year-olds before the 1st jab to 49-year-olds makes sense, providing the assumption that successful uptake of the vaccine is the same in both groups. Unlikely - but I doubt the difference will make up for that difference in the expected reduction in fatalities.
Why does everyone seem to ignore the effect of the vaccines on the spread of the virus? Bringing down the R rate is much more valuable than bringing down the IFR, because its effect multiplies week after week, and the fewer cases you have, the less the IFR matters. 49 year olds are rather more likely to spread it than 80 year olds.
Prediction: Biden will die long before we rejoin the EU, if we ever do.
Nah, he knows most people think he was only going to run in 2020 not 2024, but he really wants two terms, so he wants to be the second President to serve non consecutive terms.
In total honestly I love Pizza precisely because I think it is so versatile and if they can manage to sell that, fantastic, but it would never occur to me in a million years to try it.
A few years back in the US, pizza houses were doing a whole dessert pizza thing - chocolate and bananas etc... Intriguing enough to try, not good enough to repeat.
About those communities reluctant to have a jab, it would be a good idea if the "community leaders" set an example by themselves having jabs with some publicity. Otherwise when it has died down there will still be continuing embers in the fire ready to flare up again.
Nearly as embarrassing as your comment on Kamala Harris not experiencing racism.
Hoping it will soon be doing 300-500 vaccinations a day is a decent beacon of hope, albeit with not the brightest of bulbs. We need to see this setting a trend, not being a one-off worthy of a BBC page in itself.
It's being rolled out in lots of places, just waiting for the ok from the NHS and others that the nominated mosques are suitable.
Prediction: Biden will die long before we rejoin the EU, if we ever do.
Nah, he knows most people think he was only going to run in 2020 not 2024, but he really wants two terms, so he wants to be the second President to serve non consecutive terms.
My wife and arrived at the Venue Cymru centre car park 10 minutes before our appointment.
We were directed to the parking area (free) and from there walked to the centre, wearing masks and keeping social distanced.
A pleasant young member of the army asked us several questions and we were told to follow the arrows.
Lots of very pleasant volunteers directed us as we passed various checks before registering and then were shown into the huge hall. We were summoned to an area and introduced to a doctor who was to immunise us both. She was lovely and chatty, asking various questions, and then explaining about the Pfizer vaccine re its storage and how it is administered. She then gave us our injections and we were shown to an area to stay seated, socially distanced, for 15 minutes
The doctor told us they will have vaccinated 800 starting at 8.00am continuing to 8.00pm
We walked to the car and the time taken including the 15 minute wait was approx 35 minutes and each and everyone involved in the logistics and delivery of the vaccines were absolutely marvelous
Good to hear, Big Man. How long until your second dose?
If we can get through groups 1 to 9 in 12 weeks, we can then go back round the loop and give them all their second jab asap before moving on to the under 50s.
Disclosure: I'm in Group 9.
Actually, this makes me ask the question: Which has more benefit - giving an 80 year old their second jab or giving a 49 year old their first?
On pure statistics, assuming vaccination effectiveness is the same for both groups.:
80: IFR = 11.6%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 2 result over jab 1 result = 15% => 1.74% decrease in fatalities 49: IFR - 0.5%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 1 result over no jab = 80% => 0.4% decrease in fatalities
So you are right, giving the 2nd jab to 80-year-olds before the 1st jab to 49-year-olds makes sense, providing the assumption that successful uptake of the vaccine is the same in both groups. Unlikely - but I doubt the difference will make up for that difference in the expected reduction in fatalities.
Thank you. Could you email that analysis to Matt Hancock?
If we can get through groups 1 to 9 in 12 weeks, we can then go back round the loop and give them all their second jab asap before moving on to the under 50s.
Disclosure: I'm in Group 9.
Actually, this makes me ask the question: Which has more benefit - giving an 80 year old their second jab or giving a 49 year old their first?
On pure statistics, assuming vaccination effectiveness is the same for both groups.:
80: IFR = 11.6%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 2 result over jab 1 result = 15% => 1.74% decrease in fatalities 49: IFR - 0.5%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 1 result over no jab = 80% => 0.4% decrease in fatalities
So you are right, giving the 2nd jab to 80-year-olds before the 1st jab to 49-year-olds makes sense, providing the assumption that successful uptake of the vaccine is the same in both groups. Unlikely - but I doubt the difference will make up for that difference in the expected reduction in fatalities.
Why does everyone seem to ignore the effect of the vaccines on the spread of the virus? Bringing down the R rate is much more valuable than bringing down the IFR, because its effect multiplies week after week, and the fewer cases you have, the less the IFR matters. 49 year olds are rather more likely to spread it than 80 year olds.
About those communities reluctant to have a jab, it would be a good idea if the "community leaders" set an example by themselves having jabs with some publicity. Otherwise when it has died down there will still be continuing embers in the fire ready to flare up again.
Nearly as embarrassing as your comment on Kamala Harris not experiencing racism.
Hoping it will soon be doing 300-500 vaccinations a day is a decent beacon of hope, albeit with not the brightest of bulbs. We need to see this setting a trend, not being a one-off worthy of a BBC page in itself.
It's being rolled out in lots of places, just waiting for the ok from the NHS and others that the nominated mosques are suitable.
Yes, using Mosques, Temples and other religious venues to get the sceptical BAME types done is a great idea. I was hoping that the government would pursue it. Usually they all have ample parking, are easy to get to and may even have public transport links.
Prediction: Biden will die long before we rejoin the EU, if we ever do.
Nah, he knows most people think he was only going to run in 2020 not 2024, but he really wants two terms, so he wants to be the second President to serve non consecutive terms.
Biden 2028.
You mean third, after Trump 2024?
I'm still holding out hope won't even get the chance to attempt it.
My wife and arrived at the Venue Cymru centre car park 10 minutes before our appointment.
We were directed to the parking area (free) and from there walked to the centre, wearing masks and keeping social distanced.
A pleasant young member of the army asked us several questions and we were told to follow the arrows.
Lots of very pleasant volunteers directed us as we passed various checks before registering and then were shown into the huge hall. We were summoned to an area and introduced to a doctor who was to immunise us both. She was lovely and chatty, asking various questions, and then explaining about the Pfizer vaccine re its storage and how it is administered. She then gave us our injections and we were shown to an area to stay seated, socially distanced, for 15 minutes
The doctor told us they will have vaccinated 800 starting at 8.00am continuing to 8.00pm
We walked to the car and the time taken including the 15 minute wait was approx 35 minutes and each and everyone involved in the logistics and delivery of the vaccines were absolutely marvelous
Good to hear, Big Man. How long until your second dose?
The doctor said we should receive a text within 11 weeks but it may be before
I have been reading Alexander Watson's book, The Fortress. The siege of Przemyśl.
Minorities (religious, linguistic or ethnic) were distrusted and mistreated by both Austria-Hungary and Russia, add into the mix Imperial Russian antisemitism. Some Habsburg units in Galicia (and Serbia) were inclined to shoot first, then ask questions. The medieval barbarity of the siege was a harbinger of things to come a generation later.
My wife and arrived at the Venue Cymru centre car park 10 minutes before our appointment.
We were directed to the parking area (free) and from there walked to the centre, wearing masks and keeping social distanced.
A pleasant young member of the army asked us several questions and we were told to follow the arrows.
Lots of very pleasant volunteers directed us as we passed various checks before registering and then were shown into the huge hall. We were summoned to an area and introduced to a doctor who was to immunise us both. She was lovely and chatty, asking various questions, and then explaining about the Pfizer vaccine re its storage and how it is administered. She then gave us our injections and we were shown to an area to stay seated, socially distanced, for 15 minutes
The doctor told us they will have vaccinated 800 starting at 8.00am continuing to 8.00pm
We walked to the car and the time taken including the 15 minute wait was approx 35 minutes and each and everyone involved in the logistics and delivery of the vaccines were absolutely marvelous
Good to hear, Big Man. How long until your second dose?
The doctor said we should receive a text within 11 weeks but it may be before
And you have put the 'Thank You' card for Mark Drakeford in the post ? 😉
If we can get through groups 1 to 9 in 12 weeks, we can then go back round the loop and give them all their second jab asap before moving on to the under 50s.
Disclosure: I'm in Group 9.
Actually, this makes me ask the question: Which has more benefit - giving an 80 year old their second jab or giving a 49 year old their first?
On pure statistics, assuming vaccination effectiveness is the same for both groups.:
80: IFR = 11.6%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 2 result over jab 1 result = 15% => 1.74% decrease in fatalities 49: IFR - 0.5%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 1 result over no jab = 80% => 0.4% decrease in fatalities
So you are right, giving the 2nd jab to 80-year-olds before the 1st jab to 49-year-olds makes sense, providing the assumption that successful uptake of the vaccine is the same in both groups. Unlikely - but I doubt the difference will make up for that difference in the expected reduction in fatalities.
Why does everyone seem to ignore the effect of the vaccines on the spread of the virus? Bringing down the R rate is much more valuable than bringing down the IFR, because its effect multiplies week after week, and the fewer cases you have, the less the IFR matters. 49 year olds are rather more likely to spread it than 80 year olds.
What percentage of Israel needs to be vaccinated before we can say with any certainty that the vaccine reduces transmission or not?
Surely we must be getting close if not already there (even if analysis isn't complete etc.)?
In total honestly I love Pizza precisely because I think it is so versatile and if they can manage to sell that, fantastic, but it would never occur to me in a million years to try it.
A few years back in the US, pizza houses were doing a whole dessert pizza thing - chocolate and bananas etc... Intriguing enough to try, not good enough to repeat.
I'm sure they used to sell some options of those at Tescos like 20 years ago.
Go Joe! What a man. Sadly that would probably mean joining the Euro, which I'm against despite being pro-EU. Yes, Gentleman John negotiated his legendary opt out, but it's laughable to think that the hapless Boris could manage such a masterly act of statesmanship. (He'd bungle it and capitulate as he did with the fish.)
My wife and arrived at the Venue Cymru centre car park 10 minutes before our appointment.
We were directed to the parking area (free) and from there walked to the centre, wearing masks and keeping social distanced.
A pleasant young member of the army asked us several questions and we were told to follow the arrows.
Lots of very pleasant volunteers directed us as we passed various checks before registering and then were shown into the huge hall. We were summoned to an area and introduced to a doctor who was to immunise us both. She was lovely and chatty, asking various questions, and then explaining about the Pfizer vaccine re its storage and how it is administered. She then gave us our injections and we were shown to an area to stay seated, socially distanced, for 15 minutes
The doctor told us they will have vaccinated 800 starting at 8.00am continuing to 8.00pm
We walked to the car and the time taken including the 15 minute wait was approx 35 minutes and each and everyone involved in the logistics and delivery of the vaccines were absolutely marvelous
Good to hear, Big Man. How long until your second dose?
The doctor said we should receive a text within 11 weeks but it may be before
And you have put the 'Thank You' card for Mark Drakeford in the post ? 😉
As you know his thank you card will be my vote in May, and I hope it is one of many that see him lose office
My wife and arrived at the Venue Cymru centre car park 10 minutes before our appointment.
We were directed to the parking area (free) and from there walked to the centre, wearing masks and keeping social distanced.
A pleasant young member of the army asked us several questions and we were told to follow the arrows.
Lots of very pleasant volunteers directed us as we passed various checks before registering and then were shown into the huge hall. We were summoned to an area and introduced to a doctor who was to immunise us both. She was lovely and chatty, asking various questions, and then explaining about the Pfizer vaccine re its storage and how it is administered. She then gave us our injections and we were shown to an area to stay seated, socially distanced, for 15 minutes
The doctor told us they will have vaccinated 800 starting at 8.00am continuing to 8.00pm
We walked to the car and the time taken including the 15 minute wait was approx 35 minutes and each and everyone involved in the logistics and delivery of the vaccines were absolutely marvelous
Good to hear, Big Man. How long until your second dose?
The doctor said we should receive a text within 11 weeks but it may be before
And you have put the 'Thank You' card for Mark Drakeford in the post ? 😉
As you know his thank you card will be my vote in May, and I hope it is one of many that see him lose office
No thanks to Drakeford as he was keeping the Pfizer vaccines back for second doses. You only had your vaccine after Boris kicked Drakeford's sorry arse.
Great other news for you and for me (but for different reasons) it looks like RT will become FM in waiting.
If we can get through groups 1 to 9 in 12 weeks, we can then go back round the loop and give them all their second jab asap before moving on to the under 50s.
Disclosure: I'm in Group 9.
Actually, this makes me ask the question: Which has more benefit - giving an 80 year old their second jab or giving a 49 year old their first?
On pure statistics, assuming vaccination effectiveness is the same for both groups.:
80: IFR = 11.6%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 2 result over jab 1 result = 15% => 1.74% decrease in fatalities 49: IFR - 0.5%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 1 result over no jab = 80% => 0.4% decrease in fatalities
So you are right, giving the 2nd jab to 80-year-olds before the 1st jab to 49-year-olds makes sense, providing the assumption that successful uptake of the vaccine is the same in both groups. Unlikely - but I doubt the difference will make up for that difference in the expected reduction in fatalities.
Why does everyone seem to ignore the effect of the vaccines on the spread of the virus? Bringing down the R rate is much more valuable than bringing down the IFR, because its effect multiplies week after week, and the fewer cases you have, the less the IFR matters. 49 year olds are rather more likely to spread it than 80 year olds.
What percentage of Israel needs to be vaccinated before we can say with any certainty that the vaccine reduces transmission or not?
Surely we must be getting close if not already there (even if analysis isn't complete etc.)?
The question is how many Israeli's have had the first vaccination more than 12 days ago.
Apparently on 12th Jan, they were on 21.5% of the population
Go Joe! What a man. Sadly that would probably mean joining the Euro, which I'm against despite being pro-EU. Yes, Gentleman John negotiated his legendary opt out, but it's laughable to think that the hapless Boris could manage such a masterly act of statesmanship. (He'd bungle it and capitulate as he did with the fish.)
Rejoining the EU would be a zero % strategy for the Tories.
If we can get through groups 1 to 9 in 12 weeks, we can then go back round the loop and give them all their second jab asap before moving on to the under 50s.
Disclosure: I'm in Group 9.
Actually, this makes me ask the question: Which has more benefit - giving an 80 year old their second jab or giving a 49 year old their first?
On pure statistics, assuming vaccination effectiveness is the same for both groups.:
80: IFR = 11.6%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 2 result over jab 1 result = 15% => 1.74% decrease in fatalities 49: IFR - 0.5%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 1 result over no jab = 80% => 0.4% decrease in fatalities
So you are right, giving the 2nd jab to 80-year-olds before the 1st jab to 49-year-olds makes sense, providing the assumption that successful uptake of the vaccine is the same in both groups. Unlikely - but I doubt the difference will make up for that difference in the expected reduction in fatalities.
Why does everyone seem to ignore the effect of the vaccines on the spread of the virus? Bringing down the R rate is much more valuable than bringing down the IFR, because its effect multiplies week after week, and the fewer cases you have, the less the IFR matters. 49 year olds are rather more likely to spread it than 80 year olds.
What percentage of Israel needs to be vaccinated before we can say with any certainty that the vaccine reduces transmission or not?
Surely we must be getting close if not already there (even if analysis isn't complete etc.)?
The question is how many Israeli's have had the first vaccination more than 12 days ago.
Apparently on 12th Jan, they were on 21.5% of the population
About those communities reluctant to have a jab, it would be a good idea if the "community leaders" set an example by themselves having jabs with some publicity. Otherwise when it has died down there will still be continuing embers in the fire ready to flare up again.
Nearly as embarrassing as your comment on Kamala Harris not experiencing racism.
Hoping it will soon be doing 300-500 vaccinations a day is a decent beacon of hope, albeit with not the brightest of bulbs. We need to see this setting a trend, not being a one-off worthy of a BBC page in itself.
It's being rolled out in lots of places, just waiting for the ok from the NHS and others that the nominated mosques are suitable.
Yes, using Mosques, Temples and other religious venues to get the sceptical BAME types done is a great idea. I was hoping that the government would pursue it. Usually they all have ample parking, are easy to get to and may even have public transport links.
Staying on the religious theme. Maybe that's why they are using Uplands Rugby Club in Swansea
About those communities reluctant to have a jab, it would be a good idea if the "community leaders" set an example by themselves having jabs with some publicity. Otherwise when it has died down there will still be continuing embers in the fire ready to flare up again.
Nearly as embarrassing as your comment on Kamala Harris not experiencing racism.
Hoping it will soon be doing 300-500 vaccinations a day is a decent beacon of hope, albeit with not the brightest of bulbs. We need to see this setting a trend, not being a one-off worthy of a BBC page in itself.
It's being rolled out in lots of places, just waiting for the ok from the NHS and others that the nominated mosques are suitable.
Let's hope they are very busy and get that 50% nearer to 80%+ wanting the vaccine.
There are no good intentions to ascribe to those who want a section of society excluded from the protection against Covid. Especilly when that section seems the most susceptible to Covid.
Go Joe! What a man. Sadly that would probably mean joining the Euro, which I'm against despite being pro-EU. Yes, Gentleman John negotiated his legendary opt out, but it's laughable to think that the hapless Boris could manage such a masterly act of statesmanship. (He'd bungle it and capitulate as he did with the fish.)
6k posts under your belt and you want to jump into bed with the Express!
Seems like it may be a very stark dawning.
Biden, of course, has said nothing of this kind. (So far as I know anyway, and pointless to even look as it'd be so foolish. The Trump days are over - then I'd have looked.)
I'm reading the Battle of Singapore at present, which is a campaign that's always fascinated me, particularly as we outnumbered the Japanese so significantly.
At the end of the day Malaya was bottom of the list for men and materials, as we were fighting for survival in Europe, so it got green troops and no tanks, modern fighter or bomber aircraft, or aircraft carriers, few ships, and had to make do with men, armoured cars, field artillery and anti-tank rifles. And a handful of obsolescent aircraft.
It could never have held out forever given that but the reason it fell in 2 months (rather than 5-6 months, with at least the prospect of a stalemate) is due to immense racial prejudice against the Japanese, myth-making about "Fortress Singapore", which was just wishful thinking, and poor officers.
.
He'd have made a good staff officer, but very senior command is far more about character. It's like the difference between a good psephological statistician and a successful gambler.
Thanks - interesting. The ability to recognise that one's a good staff officer rather than a good leader is really rare - nearly everyone wants to get to the top, and then not infrequently regrets it. I've come to see in civilian management that I'm a good, reliable chief of staff but not really a creative leader, but it took a long while before I decided that that's actually OK, and it's better to do a less senior job well than to struggle at the top. Perhaps something to be imparted gently in career advice. just to keep in mind as one discovers one's limits.
In the Army, of course, it's a gross failure at the top if they don't recognise it for you and lose a war because of routine promotion. Does it give Percival's background and how he came to get that role?
Interestingly, Percival had a civilian career first and joined the army quite late in life. He was then considered something of a high flyer, and was promoted largely on merit as opposed to the old school tie like a lot of his compatriots. He was certainly brave, and won the military cross in WW1. However, most of his work was in staff or intelligence roles, where he excelled, rather than senior command of troops in combat.
I know what you mean. One still fears being deemed as a failure unless you reach the top of your business or profession, but it's not for everyone.
Why would it be?
Putting a political/intelligance officer in charge of a large army is unlikely to end well, since the skilsets are so different. Typically, as the former, you're working on your own, or else in charge of small numbers of people, and taking decisions very informally, and often acting well above your pay grade. In the 19th century, lots of Russian and British politicals were people whose formal rank was no higher than captain.
Hmm. Enoch Powell comes to mind. He never did become PM.
Many thanks. An awful lot of what we "know" about WWI comes down to Alan Clark's book, The Donkeys. Reading Castastrophe, by Max Hastings, dispelled a lot of the wrong ideas I had about WWI.
Few scholars would take The Donkeys seriously, but OTOH, I do think his Barbarossa has really stood the test of time. It lacked the benefit of much in the way of Russian primary sources, (it was written in the 1960's) and has some odd gaps (little about the Siege of Leningrad, and only two chapters covering the year after Kursk) but I think his judgements about the 1941-43 period are very sound.
He is unsparing in his criticisms of the German High Command, and implicates them (and not just the SS) in atrocities, and offers justified praise for the fighting qualities of the Red Army, all of which would have gone against the grain of popular history in the 1960's.
From memory wasn't he rather more complimentary about Hitler's qualities as a strategist than is usual?
If we can get through groups 1 to 9 in 12 weeks, we can then go back round the loop and give them all their second jab asap before moving on to the under 50s.
Disclosure: I'm in Group 9.
Actually, this makes me ask the question: Which has more benefit - giving an 80 year old their second jab or giving a 49 year old their first?
On pure statistics, assuming vaccination effectiveness is the same for both groups.:
80: IFR = 11.6%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 2 result over jab 1 result = 15% => 1.74% decrease in fatalities 49: IFR - 0.5%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 1 result over no jab = 80% => 0.4% decrease in fatalities
So you are right, giving the 2nd jab to 80-year-olds before the 1st jab to 49-year-olds makes sense, providing the assumption that successful uptake of the vaccine is the same in both groups. Unlikely - but I doubt the difference will make up for that difference in the expected reduction in fatalities.
Why does everyone seem to ignore the effect of the vaccines on the spread of the virus? Bringing down the R rate is much more valuable than bringing down the IFR, because its effect multiplies week after week, and the fewer cases you have, the less the IFR matters. 49 year olds are rather more likely to spread it than 80 year olds.
What percentage of Israel needs to be vaccinated before we can say with any certainty that the vaccine reduces transmission or not?
Surely we must be getting close if not already there (even if analysis isn't complete etc.)?
Are there any data sources for vaccinated vs unvaccinated cases? Otherwise it's guesswork whether reductions in cases are due to behaviour or the vaccines.
But it would be very unusual and a huge problem if it didn't reduce spread.
This Presidency isn't going to go well for America, is it?
The fastest way for Biden to be a divisive figure on this side of the pond (just in reverse to Trump) is to take a position on the Brexit debate.
That said, that Express article is (as usual) pretty tenuous. It's someone who used to work as an advisor to the UK and EU who is entirely unconnected to by Biden camp, and now works for a think-tank, who's simply giving his opinion.
Absent some shiny new third party, you are going to have either Conservative or Labour Governments in perpetuity. There is not a third "LibDem option". Get over it. If you believe that means further decline of this country, stem that decline the only way your party can - at local level.
The problem with local Council control and activism is the centralising tendencies apparent especially but not exclusively in both Parties.
Both Conservative and Labour parties enjoy centralising power at Westminster and Whitehall so that Councils (and many are Conservative-run) have little or no control over things like planning and their own finances.
This Government has gone further by taking power from Westminster and vesting it in Ministers and therefore 10 Downing Street.
One of the best reasons for wanting the current Conservative Government ejected from office would be to see proper responsibility and authority returned to directly-elected Councils and to see Westminster regain the power and influence taken by both Whitehall and Downing Street.
However, it's worth noting just how many people would be upset in both Scotland and Northern Ireland by independence and reunification, respectively. It's near enough half and half.
This isn't going to be nirvana or one big happy family whatevr happens.
However, it's worth noting just how many people would be upset in both Scotland and Northern Ireland by independence and reunification, respectively. It's near enough half and half.
This isn't going to be nirvana or one big happy family whatevr happens.
I took the same from that. Some real splits.
A mixed bag tbh. Some underlying hope for unionists with the economy / upset splits
Absent some shiny new third party, you are going to have either Conservative or Labour Governments in perpetuity. There is not a third "LibDem option". Get over it. If you believe that means further decline of this country, stem that decline the only way your party can - at local level.
The problem with local Council control and activism is the centralising tendencies apparent especially but not exclusively in both Parties.
Both Conservative and Labour parties enjoy centralising power at Westminster and Whitehall so that Councils (and many are Conservative-run) have little or no control over things like planning and their own finances.
This Government has gone further by taking power from Westminster and vesting it in Ministers and therefore 10 Downing Street.
One of the best reasons for wanting the current Conservative Government ejected from office would be to see proper responsibility and authority returned to directly-elected Councils and to see Westminster regain the power and influence taken by both Whitehall and Downing Street.
Frankly, there is nothing about the current LibDems that is going to eject the Conservatives from office. You are going to have to hope that the Conservatives evict themselves through incompetence.
And then hope that Labour disburse power back to regional authorities. Which they probably will, because there's endless opportunities for graft in local government.
This Presidency isn't going to go well for America, is it?
The fastest way for Biden to be a divisive figure on this side of the pond (just in reverse to Trump) is to take a position on the Brexit debate.
That said, that Express article is (as usual) pretty tenuous. It's someone who used to work as an advisor to the UK and EU who is entirely unconnected to by Biden camp, and now works for a think-tank, who's simply giving his opinion.
Ha, ha! I see it's that Harris-Quinney twit, whom Brillo humiliated back in the day:
I think the liberals need to say much more about the philosophy of liberalism, why it matters and what it stands for.
Sure, it might not get them into Government anytime soon. But when you're on 3-4% polls none of that matters.
What does matter is changing the terms of the debate. Long game.
Oddly enough, that was the Liberal position in the Butskellite years of the 1950s when the Party espoused the classical liberal free market positions but was on the margins.
I don't worry about 5-6% in polls to be honest - I was there in 1988-89 when things were much worse. I could certainly 12-15% next time but you're right in saying the message needs to be clearer and more distinctive.
Like the Tories, I have no idea what the Lib Dems stand for other than reopening the Brexit debate. It's not a party that I could vote for, and while my vote was probably never in play, it does open up the issue that I, as someone who follows politics fairly closely, have got no idea what the Lib Dems want the country to look like in the future. If I can't figure it out, what hope does the average punter have?
I remember when they had some very distinctive policies such as local income tax to replace council tax. The last GE all I remember was STOP BREXIT and getting in a total muddle over trans-genders issues.
They need a couple of distinctive policies. I’d go with devolution of powers (inc tax raising) to local councils, and legalisation of drugs starting with cannabis.
This Presidency isn't going to go well for America, is it?
The fastest way for Biden to be a divisive figure on this side of the pond (just in reverse to Trump) is to take a position on the Brexit debate.
That said, that Express article is (as usual) pretty tenuous. It's someone who used to work as an advisor to the UK and EU who is entirely unconnected to by Biden camp, and now works for a think-tank, who's simply giving his opinion.
It is guff - and we are using it only for the bantz.
If we can get through groups 1 to 9 in 12 weeks, we can then go back round the loop and give them all their second jab asap before moving on to the under 50s.
Disclosure: I'm in Group 9.
Actually, this makes me ask the question: Which has more benefit - giving an 80 year old their second jab or giving a 49 year old their first?
On pure statistics, assuming vaccination effectiveness is the same for both groups.:
80: IFR = 11.6%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 2 result over jab 1 result = 15% => 1.74% decrease in fatalities 49: IFR - 0.5%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 1 result over no jab = 80% => 0.4% decrease in fatalities
So you are right, giving the 2nd jab to 80-year-olds before the 1st jab to 49-year-olds makes sense, providing the assumption that successful uptake of the vaccine is the same in both groups. Unlikely - but I doubt the difference will make up for that difference in the expected reduction in fatalities.
Why does everyone seem to ignore the effect of the vaccines on the spread of the virus? Bringing down the R rate is much more valuable than bringing down the IFR, because its effect multiplies week after week, and the fewer cases you have, the less the IFR matters. 49 year olds are rather more likely to spread it than 80 year olds.
What percentage of Israel needs to be vaccinated before we can say with any certainty that the vaccine reduces transmission or not?
Surely we must be getting close if not already there (even if analysis isn't complete etc.)?
Are there any data sources for vaccinated vs unvaccinated cases? Otherwise it's guesswork whether reductions in cases are due to behaviour or the vaccines.
But it would be very unusual and a huge problem if it didn't reduce spread.
To be honest I was just thinking more in simpler terms, that presumably at some significant fraction of the population and/or some significant time after a reasonable fraction of the population has had their first jab you ought to see new infections begin to drop substantially and rapidly (quicker than e.g. the effects from lockdown) if the vaccine also effectively stops transmitting?
But just musing rather than having any specific understanding of what signal they'd expect to see.
This Presidency isn't going to go well for America, is it?
The fastest way for Biden to be a divisive figure on this side of the pond (just in reverse to Trump) is to take a position on the Brexit debate.
That said, that Express article is (as usual) pretty tenuous. It's someone who used to work as an advisor to the UK and EU who is entirely unconnected to by Biden camp, and now works for a think-tank, who's simply giving his opinion.
It's the Express, which is basically a crazy paper for crazy people these days.
But- is Biden really bothered what the UK thinks? It's not as if we will dump NATO for China.
This Presidency isn't going to go well for America, is it?
The fastest way for Biden to be a divisive figure on this side of the pond (just in reverse to Trump) is to take a position on the Brexit debate.
That said, that Express article is (as usual) pretty tenuous. It's someone who used to work as an advisor to the UK and EU who is entirely unconnected to by Biden camp, and now works for a think-tank, who's simply giving his opinion.
It's the Express, which is basically a crazy paper for crazy people these days.
But- is Biden really bothered what the UK thinks? It's not as if we will dump NATO for China.
How many EV does the UK have?
111 by my count. Just for a bit of fun, using the 2019 results, we have 58 "lefty/woke/liberal" electors, 52 "MAGA/Right-wing" electors and 1 neutral/other.
I would have thought that Biden more than anyone else would be wary of a policy that explicitly seeks to overturn the results of an election.
Yes, it seems extremely unlikely that Biden will be basing his European foreign policy around reversing Brexit. It's much more likely that he'll argue for the UK to stay close to the EU on military and foreign policy matters, I think he might even pursue a NATO foreign policy objective.
Biden's record shows that he's a foreign policy realist. That includes during the Falklands War, where siding unambiguously with the UK was considered foolhardy by many on Capitol Hill.
I'm under no illusions that he doesn't like Brexit but, right now, the UK is a key ally in pursuing the US's foreign policy and global agenda.
On topic, Labour really need to get a grip on being a govt in waiting - after 10 years of Conservative rule and BJs weaknesses (and strengths) now well known the Opposition (and SKS) must get their act together or they face a mediocre May performance (if they take place)... what is their offer to the voters - if it aint Corbynism... is it TBlair 2.0? I for one am really sruggling to see their vision etc,
However, it's worth noting just how many people would be upset in both Scotland and Northern Ireland by independence and reunification, respectively. It's near enough half and half.
This isn't going to be nirvana or one big happy family whatevr happens.
I took the same from that. Some real splits.
A mixed bag tbh. Some underlying hope for unionists with the economy / upset splits
There's no solution (either which way) that gives no succour to the other side.
Even a reunified Ireland would need to have a unionist zone where people could still hold British passports and maintain their traditions. Even an independent Scotland would be heavily constrained by its need for a very close relationship with England, and limited influence within the EU.
The better solution is to allow all the identities to flourish in a system and model that respects them.
The UK mustn't make the same mistakes towards Scotland that the EU did towards the UK, for example.
If we can get through groups 1 to 9 in 12 weeks, we can then go back round the loop and give them all their second jab asap before moving on to the under 50s.
Disclosure: I'm in Group 9.
Actually, this makes me ask the question: Which has more benefit - giving an 80 year old their second jab or giving a 49 year old their first?
On pure statistics, assuming vaccination effectiveness is the same for both groups.:
80: IFR = 11.6%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 2 result over jab 1 result = 15% => 1.74% decrease in fatalities 49: IFR - 0.5%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 1 result over no jab = 80% => 0.4% decrease in fatalities
So you are right, giving the 2nd jab to 80-year-olds before the 1st jab to 49-year-olds makes sense, providing the assumption that successful uptake of the vaccine is the same in both groups. Unlikely - but I doubt the difference will make up for that difference in the expected reduction in fatalities.
On the other hand young people are more likely to spread the virus around the population than older people, and that probably has to be taken into account.
In Indonesia they've decided to vaccinate young people before old people for this reason. (Also "social media influencers").
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Karma!
In the Muslim community, 'in Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities the figure was 42 per cent and there was also a high level of scepticism among people from east European backgrounds.' one explanation is this
'CIA organised fake vaccination drive to get Osama bin Laden's family DNA
Senior Pakistani doctor who organised vaccine programme in Abbottabad arrested by ISI for working with US agents'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/11/cia-fake-vaccinations-osama-bin-ladens-dna
FWIW it is worth my father is getting vaccinated next week so he can go and vaccinate ethnic minorities.
For the last twenty years he has spent persuading reluctant parents (of all backgrounds) in getting the MMR vaccine because of well you know that bellend Andrew Wakefield, so I'm certain my father can persuade the vaccine sceptics.
So people from country X seem to have a variant of anti-vax-culture from country X.
The fact this is a surprise is something I find funny.
There is an additional layer of culture involved - the memes etc of American culture are widespread here now, in the young. So Tuskegee is apparently an issue being waved around in some communities....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-55752056
It's really important that we recognise, as a society, that we're in a deep hole now, and vaccination is about making the summer better.
We're not home and dry. And whilst we have a better flannel than other nations, it's not yet a towel.
A historic problem in the British army is that people get promoted to general on the basis of Buggins' Turn.
https://twitter.com/scottishsun/status/1353028537377320962
80: IFR = 11.6%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 2 result over jab 1 result = 15% => 1.74% decrease in fatalities
49: IFR - 0.5%. Increase in effectiveness of jab 1 result over no jab = 80% => 0.4% decrease in fatalities
So you are right, giving the 2nd jab to 80-year-olds before the 1st jab to 49-year-olds makes sense, providing the assumption that successful uptake of the vaccine is the same in both groups. Unlikely - but I doubt the difference will make up for that difference in the expected reduction in fatalities.
I would have thought that Biden more than anyone else would be wary of a policy that explicitly seeks to overturn the results of an election.
One of the most moving stories I read recently was of Iraqi junior officers during the Gulf War, who stood up in front of the trenches their men were hiding in, in the face of allied air attack. They did it to stop their men running away. They may not have been very efficient, but their courage was unquestionable.
My wife and arrived at the Venue Cymru centre car park 10 minutes before our appointment.
We were directed to the parking area (free) and from there walked to the centre, wearing masks and keeping social distanced.
A pleasant young member of the army asked us several questions and we were told to follow the arrows.
Lots of very pleasant volunteers directed us as we passed various checks before registering and then were shown into the huge hall. We were summoned to an area and introduced to a doctor who was to immunise us both. She was lovely and chatty, asking various questions, and then explaining about the Pfizer vaccine re its storage and how it is administered. She then gave us our injections and we were shown to an area to stay seated, socially distanced, for 15 minutes
The doctor told us they will have vaccinated 800 starting at 8.00am continuing to 8.00pm
We walked to the car and the time taken including the 15 minute wait was approx 35 minutes and each and everyone involved in the logistics and delivery of the vaccines were absolutely marvelous
But yes - the 5G thing is also largely an American import, I believe, but more from the Goop/Crystals Make Everything Better crowd.
Biden 2028.
Minorities (religious, linguistic or ethnic) were distrusted and mistreated by both Austria-Hungary and Russia, add into the mix Imperial Russian antisemitism. Some Habsburg units in Galicia (and Serbia) were inclined to shoot first, then ask questions. The medieval barbarity of the siege was a harbinger of things to come a generation later.
Link is to Christopher Clark's review.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/dec/05/fortress-great-siege-prezemsyl-alexander-watson-review
Surely we must be getting close if not already there (even if analysis isn't complete etc.)?
Great other news for you and for me (but for different reasons) it looks like RT will become FM in waiting.
Apparently on 12th Jan, they were on 21.5% of the population
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
There are no good intentions to ascribe to those who want a section of society excluded from the protection against Covid. Especilly when that section seems the most susceptible to Covid.
Seems like it may be a very stark dawning.
Biden, of course, has said nothing of this kind. (So far as I know anyway, and pointless to even look as it'd be so foolish. The Trump days are over - then I'd have looked.)
But it would be very unusual and a huge problem if it didn't reduce spread.
That said, that Express article is (as usual) pretty tenuous. It's someone who used to work as an advisor to the UK and EU who is entirely unconnected to by Biden camp, and now works for a think-tank, who's simply giving his opinion.
Both Conservative and Labour parties enjoy centralising power at Westminster and Whitehall so that Councils (and many are Conservative-run) have little or no control over things like planning and their own finances.
This Government has gone further by taking power from Westminster and vesting it in Ministers and therefore 10 Downing Street.
One of the best reasons for wanting the current Conservative Government ejected from office would be to see proper responsibility and authority returned to directly-elected Councils and to see Westminster regain the power and influence taken by both Whitehall and Downing Street.
However, it's worth noting just how many people would be upset in both Scotland and Northern Ireland by independence and reunification, respectively. It's near enough half and half.
This isn't going to be nirvana or one big happy family whatevr happens.
A mixed bag tbh. Some underlying hope for unionists with the economy / upset splits
And then hope that Labour disburse power back to regional authorities. Which they probably will, because there's endless opportunities for graft in local government.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/video/2016/feb/04/ben-harris-quinney-called-walter-mitty-character-by-bbcs-andrew-neil-video
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1353035021116973059
What sort of measures are they under?
And don’t mention the EU nor tuition fees.
But just musing rather than having any specific understanding of what signal they'd expect to see.
But- is Biden really bothered what the UK thinks? It's not as if we will dump NATO for China.
How many EV does the UK have?
The early numbers from Israel looking good.
https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1352696337477890049?s=21
I'm under no illusions that he doesn't like Brexit but, right now, the UK is a key ally in pursuing the US's foreign policy and global agenda.
The EU is equivocating.
This seems like a harsh thing for a Danish prime minister from the Social Democratic Party to say.
"Danish prime minister wants country to accept 'zero' asylum seekers"
https://www.thelocal.dk/20210122/danish-prime-minister-wants-country-to-accept-zero-asylum-seekers
The Express source sounded a bit rubbish, but Sleepy Joe seems pretty good so far!
Even a reunified Ireland would need to have a unionist zone where people could still hold British passports and maintain their traditions. Even an independent Scotland would be heavily constrained by its need for a very close relationship with England, and limited influence within the EU.
The better solution is to allow all the identities to flourish in a system and model that respects them.
The UK mustn't make the same mistakes towards Scotland that the EU did towards the UK, for example.
In Indonesia they've decided to vaccinate young people before old people for this reason. (Also "social media influencers").
I'm just reading the chapters about the Japanese occupation of Singapore now.
It is extremely disturbing reading.