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Senedd shake-up: what happens if Welsh Labour lose their majority? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2021 in General
imageSenedd shake-up: what happens if Welsh Labour lose their majority? – politicalbetting.com

Elections: remember them? For most of the country, they’ve become a distant memory. Aside from a handful of council by-elections in Scotland in the autumn, there’s been nothing for ten months. They are, however, due to return with a vengeance in May with elections for some or all of 149 English councils, plus 13 mayors (including London and all the large combined-authorities), 40 Police & Crime Commissioners, the London Assembly, Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    First of the insomniacs.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Second for the first time.
    Interesting lead
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited January 2021
    Indeed, there was no automaticity to what happened in Scotland – we should remember that in early 2011, Scottish Labour was well-set to evict the SNP from office. Only the far superior campaigning skills of Alex Salmond as against Iain Gray turned the tables.

    That’s interesting. I wasn’t really paying attention to politics around that time as I was too busy with work, but I reckon the SNP were always likely to win in 2011 (though not necessarily a majority). I think the only reason Labour hung on to their Scottish seats at Westminster in 2010 was Gordon Brown.

    Just to add, the bigger risk for the Tories is being seen to support a nationalist party. It could hurt them future elections in both Wales and Scotland.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    tlg86 said:

    First of the insomniacs.

    5.21 am seems perfectly reasonable

    A pilot friend of mine is fond of telling me that these are merely numbers on a clock face. I find it quite helpful when I occasionally wake at 3 am. If I reach 5 am then it's a good night's sleep.

    Oh and good morning :smile:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    First of the insomniacs.

    5.21 am seems perfectly reasonable

    A pilot friend of mine is fond of telling me that these are merely numbers on a clock face. I find it quite helpful when I occasionally wake at 3 am. If I reach 5 am then it's a good night's sleep.

    Oh and good morning :smile:
    Sadly I’ve been up since 03:10 - still, I have plenty of books to read from Christmas and can go back to bed in a bit.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,086
    5.21?

    Ugh.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Good piece as usual David. It looks very much as if Labour will lose, but there’s no clear route for the others to form a government - so we could indeed see some unlikely bedfellows.

    Hopefully a reminder to the bookies to get some more markets up on the local elections, if they are indeed going ahead as planned. Betfair only has London Mayor up at the moment.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    The SNP in 2007 at least was the largest party, with Salmond becoming FM because the minor parties abstained in the FM vote. Minority government becomes much harder when other parties actually have to vote for you to overtake the largest party.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Ladbrokes' odds are unchanged, but Betfair's have Bottas down to 8 and Russell 9 for the title. Sadly lays aren't close, 14.5 and 20 respectively otherwise I'd be tempted to hedge bets made already.

    Testing is about six weeks away with the first race a week or two after that. Every other driver was confirmed weeks if not months ago. I do expect Hamilton to re-sign but it's peculiar it's taking so long.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,086
    edited January 2021
    On topic (remarkably).

    Is there much of a cleavage between Plaid in the Senedd, and Plaid in Westminster?

    If so, I would see rather less prospect of a Plaid-Tory administration.

    They seem to be somewhat so-aligned in the Commons.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Whatever the polls, experience shows if you put a stubby pencil in their hands, muscle-memory makes the Welsh vote for Labour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    FPT You face the shower-head? Really? Have you never SEEN Psycho?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    edited January 2021
    MattW said:

    On topic (remarkably).

    Is there much of a cleavage between Plaid in the Senedd, and Plaid in Westminster?

    If so, I would see rather less prospect of a Plaid-Tory administration.

    They seem to be somewhat so-aligned in the Commons.

    What is perhaps remarkable is the apparent complete demise of the Liberal tradition in Wales. Lloyd-George might have known people's fathers but the sons and daughters seem to have forgotten him.

    And Good Morning everyone. Cold day forecast, with the possibility of snow.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,086
    FPT.
    Weird question.

    Depends whether I am washing the front or the back.

    Rainfall shower? My coiffure is too splendiferous.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,066
    It looks to me as if there may well be no possible Welsh government from those polling figures. I think Plaid may do better than expected, once they spread into the valleys it will be like the SNP. That disproportionate AMS system gives Labour leverage, but levers do work both ways, and could see a Labour collapse if it falls much further.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    First of the insomniacs.

    5.21 am seems perfectly reasonable

    A pilot friend of mine is fond of telling me that these are merely numbers on a clock face. I find it quite helpful when I occasionally wake at 3 am. If I reach 5 am then it's a good night's sleep.

    Oh and good morning :smile:
    Sadly I’ve been up since 03:10 - still, I have plenty of books to read from Christmas and can go back to bed in a bit.
    I'm sorry to hear this. I wake up around then frequently. Pre-covid I never used to.

    O/t one of the reasons I'm increasingly feeling that the tories will win outright next time is that Labour are merely bimbling and bumbling. There's nothing exciting to report in Labour's polling. They should be miles ahead. They aren't.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,066
    In other news, I see Zimbabwe has now lost two cabinet ministers to covid, Malawi lost two cabinet ministers last week. With the age spectrum of African demographics (about half the population under 18) I would not expect the raw numbers to look too bad for covid deaths, even if recording was reliable, but it could be very severe in the older age groups there. Africa has a relatively small amount of human capital, and cannot afford to lose much.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    The Splendid Rose, (I'm considering using this as a gender neutral title for you, BluestBlue, and anyone else who I can never get right...), I'm not so sure.

    Labour are recovering from a severe case of Corbyn, and are polling decently. I think lots of people are giving the Government some benefit of the doubt over errors due to the rare nature of the situation, and because the vaccine rollout is currently going well.

    Supplies will soon be a little harder to come by and the media will doubtlessly be wetting themselves over slowing rates, and the Conservatives face the fact that the PM is a complete bloody fool. Not to mention problems with the withdrawal agreement, and then the deal with the EU. And incoming fiscal problems (not the Conservatives' fault, of course, but their responsibility and they will be blamed for spending cuts and tax rises).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,066

    MattW said:

    On topic (remarkably).

    Is there much of a cleavage between Plaid in the Senedd, and Plaid in Westminster?

    If so, I would see rather less prospect of a Plaid-Tory administration.

    They seem to be somewhat so-aligned in the Commons.

    What is perhaps remarkable is the apparent complete demise of the Liberal tradition in Wales. Lloyd-George might have known people's fathers but the sons and daughters seem to have forgotten him.

    And Good Morning everyone. Cold day forecast, with the possibility of snow.
    An inch of snow for me, and quite foggy. Will find out how the puppy likes it shortly.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    No snow here. Cold but crisp. Glittering frost on the pavement, crunchy grass underfoot.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited January 2021
    Morris Dancer, thank you and you may well be right.

    Sir Keir seems a decent person but he's no Tony Blair. Perhaps after the turmoil we will want a steady Joe type. A John Smith. A lawyer. A branch bank manager. Very competent and safe, I'm sure.

    And I only wish to demure on one point. I have been very critical of Boris Johnson. A large part of me loathes him. However, I don't believe a 'complete bloody fool' would have pre-ordered in bulk from multiple vaccine developers, backed the UK one to the hilt, and begun rolling out one of the world's most successful vaccination programmes. We must give credit where it's due. The Conservative Government have made a stellar success story of vaccination. Incidentally, I'm not convinced that the UK will be particularly affected by supply issues either. We're not subject to the European AZ factory issue with Novasep.

    And it's incredible to me that the EU STILL hasn't authorised the Astra-Zeneca vaccine.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Welsh politics is difficult (for outsiders?) to decipher.

    Are Plaid Cymru essentially left-wing party? One of the strengths of the SNP was that it actually played to both left and right, although Sturgeon has moved it toward the left.

    One notable thing is the high share for Abolish the Assembly and Reform U.K. That makes 11% in total for the hard right, which is presumably a drag on the Tory vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    On topic (remarkably).

    Is there much of a cleavage between Plaid in the Senedd, and Plaid in Westminster?

    If so, I would see rather less prospect of a Plaid-Tory administration.

    They seem to be somewhat so-aligned in the Commons.

    What is perhaps remarkable is the apparent complete demise of the Liberal tradition in Wales. Lloyd-George might have known people's fathers but the sons and daughters seem to have forgotten him.

    And Good Morning everyone. Cold day forecast, with the possibility of snow.
    An inch of snow for me, and quite foggy. Will find out how the puppy likes it shortly.
    Mine was a puppy during Beast from the East - the first hit of snow he was curious but wary, the second a few weeks' later, he loved it. Whenever we find snow in the Alps now, he goes beserk with happiness.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    The Splendid Rose, we can certainly agree the EU's bureaucratic approach has buggered things up for most of the continent.

    On vaccine: I would argue this is a stopped clock telling the right time. Boris Johnson is a cash-splurging simpleton. It just so happens that splurging cash on the vaccine was 100% the right thing to do, and any higher costs (the EU has cheaper vaccines) are more than made up for by economic savings by achieving positive healthcare results.

    I agree on Sir Keir. He's boring. But a grown-up. I'd take him over the incumbent. Right now, I'm very unlikely to vote Conservative if the PM isn't changed pre-election. Not persuaded to vote for Labour, as yet, not least because of the forthcoming devolution policy which I suspect will be carving England into pieces.

    Mr. B2, I think my previous dog was a puppy at that time. Despite being short-haired and having no fur at all on some of his undercarriage he didn't seem to care being belly-deep in the garden snow (this was when he was too young to go for walks because he hadn't had all his shots).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    @Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.

    You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Fascinating article.

    In the current political climate, with challenges in NI and, in particular, with the Scottish elections and independence, I don't think the Tories can afford to be seen to put another lot of nationalists in power, still less support them.

    My best guess is a weak Labour minority with both PC and the Tories calling the shots, and uniting where required, to direct and rein them in.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    Foxy said:

    It looks to me as if there may well be no possible Welsh government from those polling figures. I think Plaid may do better than expected, once they spread into the valleys it will be like the SNP. That disproportionate AMS system gives Labour leverage, but levers do work both ways, and could see a Labour collapse if it falls much further.

    Yep, having two thirds constituency seats looks rather like a gerrymander in favour of Labour, although as you say it could suddenly start to turn against them like it did in Scotland.

    Other additional member systems like Germany's and New Zealand's have a 50/50 divide, thereby making it impossible to sneak a majority on just the constituency seats. Scotland's system is also imbalanced with 57% constituency seats, but not as bad as Wales.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    @Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.

    You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?

    Indeed. England would benefit massively from more powers (and fund raising) being devolved to the counties.

    It doesn’t need another tier of ‘regions’ in the middle, with another layer of politicians, officials and other hangers-on funded by taxpayers, and with most of their powers coming up rather than down.

    The issue is the powers rather than the structures.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    Alistair said:
    I'd press Like if it wasn't so sad and infuriating.

    (I think the other big mistake was not to open the schools first and assess the impact of that before opening anything else. And of course EOTHO.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited January 2021
    RobD said:

    People face away from the shower?
    Of course. But the real question is do leavers and remainers predominate to different directions in the shower.
  • MetatronMetatron Posts: 193
    Anyone looking for the Republican Nominee for 2024 recommend checking out South Dakotas Kristi Noem 66/1 with Skybet although they only allowed me £2 on!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Gaussian said:

    Alistair said:
    I'd press Like if it wasn't so sad and infuriating.

    (I think the other big mistake was not to open the schools first and assess the impact of that before opening anything else. And of course EOTHO.)
    People were applauding Sturgeon for fully reopening the schools.

    I couldn't believe the massive gamble she was taking. And it gets basically zero comment these days.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,066
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    People face away from the shower?
    Of course. But the real question is do leavers and remainers predominate to different directions in the shower.
    48% of Remainers face away, compared to 40% of Leavers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited January 2021
    Sandpit said:

    @Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.

    You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?

    Indeed. England would benefit massively from more powers (and fund raising) being devolved to the counties.

    It doesn’t need another tier of ‘regions’ in the middle, with another layer of politicians, officials and other hangers-on funded by taxpayers, and with most of their powers coming up rather than down.

    The issue is the powers rather than the structures.
    Thing is the parties promise they want to do it, that they want to empower local government, and yet never really do unless its trivial, in an inconsistent and confusing way, or via pointless regions as dismissed in your post.

    It's a stock manifesto promise which no one cares about when they win, that Whitehall wont like, and the public dont care enough to force it to happen.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited January 2021
    Gaussian said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks to me as if there may well be no possible Welsh government from those polling figures. I think Plaid may do better than expected, once they spread into the valleys it will be like the SNP. That disproportionate AMS system gives Labour leverage, but levers do work both ways, and could see a Labour collapse if it falls much further.

    Yep, having two thirds constituency seats looks rather like a gerrymander in favour of Labour, although as you say it could suddenly start to turn against them like it did in Scotland.

    Other additional member systems like Germany's and New Zealand's have a 50/50 divide, thereby making it impossible to sneak a majority on just the constituency seats. Scotland's system is also imbalanced with 57% constituency seats, but not as bad as Wales.
    Actually not quite right.

    NZ has more constituency seats (it’s about 60/40 I think), but the point is that the list seats are allocated in order to reach complete proportionality of each party in Parliament..

    Therefore, the list (or party) vote is only one which really matters. Parliament is composed precisely according to the percentage each party achieves in that vote.

    I understand it works the same way in Germany.

    After 25 years, I believe the NZ system works very well. I still have reservations about the accountability of list MPs, but overall I feel that all opinions in multi-racial, multi-cultural NZ are able to gain representation and work out their various compromises with each other in Parliament.

    The problem with the Welsh (and to a lesser extent the Scottish) systems is that they are a kind of pretend PR with an inbuilt lever to push even more seats toward the dominant party.

    As Foxy points out upthread this works well for Labour - until it suddenly doesn’t.
  • MattW said:

    FPT.

    Weird question.

    Depends whether I am washing the front or the back.

    Rainfall shower? My coiffure is too splendiferous.
    MattW said:

    FPT.

    Weird question.

    Depends whether I am washing the front or the back.

    Rainfall shower? My coiffure is too splendiferous.
    Doesn't it depend who you are showering with?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    MattW said:

    On topic (remarkably).

    Is there much of a cleavage between Plaid in the Senedd, and Plaid in Westminster?

    If so, I would see rather less prospect of a Plaid-Tory administration.

    They seem to be somewhat so-aligned in the Commons.

    What is perhaps remarkable is the apparent complete demise of the Liberal tradition in Wales. Lloyd-George might have known people's fathers but the sons and daughters seem to have forgotten him.

    And Good Morning everyone. Cold day forecast, with the possibility of snow.
    Had a hailstorm yesterday with pea sized hail that blanketed the ground. Never seen anything like it in my life.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Metatron said:

    Anyone looking for the Republican Nominee for 2024 recommend checking out South Dakotas Kristi Noem 66/1 with Skybet although they only allowed me £2 on!

    Interesting. Thanks. I see she was against locking down and masks. Might help or hinder in 2024.
  • Mr. Punter, that's an outrageous thing to post.

    It's "...with whom you are showering".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTv5ckMe_2M

    Guilty as charged. :(
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

    I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

    It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    I take David's point on automacity but dont give PC the opportunity. Wales is quiet on that score, keep it that way.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,770
    Wake up this morning and England's spinners still haven't taken a single wicket. Lordy, the India tour is going to be grim.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Walker, I don't think I've ever read the Telegraph.

    And how dare you suggest my fascinating and unique collection of personal characteristics are some sort of second hand impression left from a media organ?!

    *slaps GardenWalker across the face with a large haddock*
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Sandpit said:

    @Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.

    You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?

    Indeed. England would benefit massively from more powers (and fund raising) being devolved to the counties.

    It doesn’t need another tier of ‘regions’ in the middle, with another layer of politicians, officials and other hangers-on funded by taxpayers, and with most of their powers coming up rather than down.

    The issue is the powers rather than the structures.
    No. It’s about both.

    Look at a map of English local authorities.
    Then look at a map of English health authorities.
    Now a map of English police forces.
    Now a map of “functional economic geographies” (if you can find one).

    It’s an utter mish-mash. A dog’s mess of Dickensian satraps and rotten boroughs.

    Which suits the mandarin in Whitehall very well, but is anathema to democracy and accountability.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

    I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

    It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
    I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

    I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

    If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    DavidL said:

    Wake up this morning and England's spinners still haven't taken a single wicket. Lordy, the India tour is going to be grim.

    Looks like Anderson's just getting better with age though. He just needs longer breaks between tests.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    The EU vaccine screw-up is the best argument for Brexit.

    They STILL haven't approved the AZ vaccine which is, frankly, ridiculous and their rollout is a complete shambles.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

    I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

    It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
    I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

    I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

    If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
    That would still be pretty contrived, but easier to sell.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Mr. Walker, I don't think I've ever read the Telegraph.

    *

    I voted Labour last time, which was admittedly for Ben Bradshaw so hardly counts as an endorsement of the Left, and LibDem for most times before that.

    Yet I read the Saturday Telegraph. It's very good.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

    I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

    It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
    I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

    I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

    If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
    What powers do you think an “all-England view” should control?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Sandpit said:

    @Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.

    You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?

    Indeed. England would benefit massively from more powers (and fund raising) being devolved to the counties.

    It doesn’t need another tier of ‘regions’ in the middle, with another layer of politicians, officials and other hangers-on funded by taxpayers, and with most of their powers coming up rather than down.

    The issue is the powers rather than the structures.
    No. It’s about both.

    Look at a map of English local authorities.
    Then look at a map of English health authorities.
    Now a map of English police forces.
    Now a map of “functional economic geographies” (if you can find one).

    It’s an utter mish-mash. A dog’s mess of Dickensian satraps and rotten boroughs.

    Which suits the mandarin in Whitehall very well, but is anathema to democracy and accountability.
    Yep. Incomprehensible mess. And government decided to add to it with its slapdash combined authorities rather than make it simpler or use what was there better.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    DavidL said:

    Wake up this morning and England's spinners still haven't taken a single wicket. Lordy, the India tour is going to be grim.

    Yep. I think we are going to be taken to the cleaners, even with some of our 'rested' players back.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    On topic, Labour really need to get a grip on being a govt in waiting - after 10 years of Conservative rule and BJs weaknesses (and strengths) now well known the Opposition (and SKS) must get their act together or they face a mediocre May performance (if they take place)... what is their offer to the voters - if it aint Corbynism... is it TBlair 2.0? I for one am really sruggling to see their vision etc,
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,770
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Wake up this morning and England's spinners still haven't taken a single wicket. Lordy, the India tour is going to be grim.

    Looks like Anderson's just getting better with age though. He just needs longer breaks between tests.
    Broad likewise. Neither particularly quick but highly skilled at their craft. Our spinners, however, are just not up to the mark at all. I think we have to go back to Moeen ahead of either of these 2.
  • Been out already. Colder than a penguin's cold bits.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,770

    Been out already. Colder than a penguin's cold bits.

    Better get used to it if you are heading to Aberdeenshire.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Given how national issues do get brought a lot in local elections - and theres a reason youd expect a party in national government to suffer in the locals - I wonder how hard the opposition will go on Covid.

    By that point an awful lot of people will be vaccinated and restrictions probably less so people may be feeling more positive generally, but we'll also be on something like 130000 deaths. Political arguments about it will be inevitable, but I'm uncertain how hard those campaigning will feel best to be on the subject.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,086

    MattW said:

    FPT.

    Weird question.

    Depends whether I am washing the front or the back.

    Rainfall shower? My coiffure is too splendiferous.
    MattW said:

    FPT.

    Weird question.

    Depends whether I am washing the front or the back.

    Rainfall shower? My coiffure is too splendiferous.
    Doesn't it depend who you are showering with?
    That looks like the 4th such reference in a month...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,086
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    People face away from the shower?
    Of course. But the real question is do leavers and remainers predominate to different directions in the shower.
    Surely that depends where the door is?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    DavidL said:

    Been out already. Colder than a penguin's cold bits.

    Better get used to it if you are heading to Aberdeenshire.
    Why would anyone ever do that?

    #easyjokes
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

    I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

    It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
    I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

    I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

    If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
    What powers do you think an “all-England view” should control?
    I'm going to guess at protecting statues.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    English regions/counties would hopefully revive local democracy in SE England, which is otherwise pretty much dead.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336

    Gaussian said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks to me as if there may well be no possible Welsh government from those polling figures. I think Plaid may do better than expected, once they spread into the valleys it will be like the SNP. That disproportionate AMS system gives Labour leverage, but levers do work both ways, and could see a Labour collapse if it falls much further.

    Yep, having two thirds constituency seats looks rather like a gerrymander in favour of Labour, although as you say it could suddenly start to turn against them like it did in Scotland.

    Other additional member systems like Germany's and New Zealand's have a 50/50 divide, thereby making it impossible to sneak a majority on just the constituency seats. Scotland's system is also imbalanced with 57% constituency seats, but not as bad as Wales.
    Actually not quite right.

    NZ has more constituency seats (it’s about 60/40 I think), but the point is that the list seats are allocated in order to reach complete proportionality of each party in Parliament..

    Therefore, the list (or party) vote is only one which really matters. Parliament is composed precisely according to the percentage each party achieves in that vote.

    I understand it works the same way in Germany.

    After 25 years, I believe the NZ system works very well. I still have reservations about the accountability of list MPs, but overall I feel that all opinions in multi-racial, multi-cultural NZ are able to gain representation and work out their various compromises with each other in Parliament.

    The problem with the Welsh (and to a lesser extent the Scottish) systems is that they are a kind of pretend PR with an inbuilt lever to push even more seats toward the dominant party.

    As Foxy points out upthread this works well for Labour - until it suddenly doesn’t.
    Agreed, in fact I remember an interview with Carwyn Jones on TV years ago about the electoral system. He said they chose the 40/20 split so that Labour retained their majority all the time. I sadly can't give you a link to this, just a memory.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    On topic, Labour really need to get a grip on being a govt in waiting - after 10 years of Conservative rule and BJs weaknesses (and strengths) now well known the Opposition (and SKS) must get their act together or they face a mediocre May performance (if they take place)... what is their offer to the voters - if it aint Corbynism... is it TBlair 2.0? I for one am really sruggling to see their vision etc,

    This is the problem. They haven't got anything except 'we're not them.'
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

    I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

    It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
    I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

    I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

    If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
    What powers do you think an “all-England view” should control?
    I'm going to guess at protecting statues.
    Lol
  • Which way to face in the shower? Surely that depends on the activity...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Dura_Ace said:

    I'm going to guess at protecting statues.

    https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1352888881226641409
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    edited January 2021

    Gaussian said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks to me as if there may well be no possible Welsh government from those polling figures. I think Plaid may do better than expected, once they spread into the valleys it will be like the SNP. That disproportionate AMS system gives Labour leverage, but levers do work both ways, and could see a Labour collapse if it falls much further.

    Yep, having two thirds constituency seats looks rather like a gerrymander in favour of Labour, although as you say it could suddenly start to turn against them like it did in Scotland.

    Other additional member systems like Germany's and New Zealand's have a 50/50 divide, thereby making it impossible to sneak a majority on just the constituency seats. Scotland's system is also imbalanced with 57% constituency seats, but not as bad as Wales.
    Actually not quite right.

    NZ has more constituency seats (it’s about 60/40 I think), but the point is that the list seats are allocated in order to reach complete proportionality of each party in Parliament..

    Therefore, the list (or party) vote is only one which really matters. Parliament is composed precisely according to the percentage each party achieves in that vote.

    I understand it works the same way in Germany.

    After 25 years, I believe the NZ system works very well. I still have reservations about the accountability of list MPs, but overall I feel that all opinions in multi-racial, multi-cultural NZ are able to gain representation and work out their various compromises with each other in Parliament.

    The problem with the Welsh (and to a lesser extent the Scottish) systems is that they are a kind of pretend PR with an inbuilt lever to push even more seats toward the dominant party.

    As Foxy points out upthread this works well for Labour - until it suddenly doesn’t.
    Thanks you're right about New Zealand; I should have checked. If a party does win more than its proportional share in constituency seats, they add list seats to compensate the other parties. Same in Germany. I'm not sure that's a great idea, as it can lead to a much-expanded parliament, but it does keep it proportional.

    The Welsh and Scottish systems don't do that, and they add to the disproportionality by dividing list seats by region, which means you can still win additional list seats in some regions even if the constituency seats overall already give you more than a proportional share.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

    I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

    It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
    I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

    I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

    If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
    What powers do you think an “all-England view” should control?
    I'm going to guess at protecting statues.
    Plus unilateral power to declare fly overs by the BoB flight & the Red Arrers, with special reference to what colour of smoke that the latter can blow out their arses.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,770
    Now will either of England's openers make 20?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,770
    Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:

    "This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.

    Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."

    Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Scott_xP said:
    Good morning Scott n' Paste :wink:

    I don't find that cartoon either clever or particularly funny. It's very 'meh'.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    The EU vaccine screw-up is the best argument for Brexit.

    They STILL haven't approved the AZ vaccine which is, frankly, ridiculous and their rollout is a complete shambles.

    At this stage it wouldn't matter if they did with only 30m doses available.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

    I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

    It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
    I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

    I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

    If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
    Yet again, there are no innervating constitutional controversies that cannot be resolved by the simple expedient of dismantling the United Kingdom. Any argument for oh-so-conveniently Scotland-sized regional assemblies walks out of the door with Scotland itself.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Been out already. Colder than a penguin's cold bits.

    I don't think it's that bad actually - there is no wind so no windchill making it feel 10 degrees colder
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Last time there was a similar poll it tried to distinguish Leavers and Remainers by how frequently they changed their underwear.
    All this tells us is what preoccupies YouGov. At least it's not getting worse. But it's not in a good place.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

    I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

    It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
    I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

    I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

    If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
    Yet again, there are no innervating constitutional controversies that cannot be resolved by the simple expedient of dismantling the United Kingdom. Any argument for oh-so-conveniently Scotland-sized regional assemblies walks out of the door with Scotland itself.
    I hope you are in a better place today? Hold on in there. We will come through this. We are very fortunate to live in a country with one of the best vaccine rollouts in the world and that is a gamechanger. Two or three more months and we'll be coming through, and out, of this.

    x
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Sandpit said:

    @Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.

    You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?

    Indeed. England would benefit massively from more powers (and fund raising) being devolved to the counties.

    It doesn’t need another tier of ‘regions’ in the middle, with another layer of politicians, officials and other hangers-on funded by taxpayers, and with most of their powers coming up rather than down.

    The issue is the powers rather than the structures.
    There are certain thing that do need to be done on a slightly larger area than a County, transport is one of them, business support another.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited January 2021
    On topic Drakeford and Labour should be thrown out of office unceremoniously and not just because of Drakeford's abyssal handling of covid but the mess Labour have made of education and health long before covid

    However, because of the system I expect they may have to govern subject to agreement, and I do expect close cooperation with Plaid and the Conservatives, indeed as things are just now in Wales I would rather have a Plaid FM than a Labour one

    And my wife and I get get our vaccinations this afternoon, that is if the road over the Little Orme is open following snow and multiple crashes with a bus and other vehicles earlier
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    MaxPB said:

    The EU vaccine screw-up is the best argument for Brexit.

    They STILL haven't approved the AZ vaccine which is, frankly, ridiculous and their rollout is a complete shambles.

    At this stage it wouldn't matter if they did with only 30m doses available.
    Not been following this, but cant countries choose to licence whatever vaccine it wishes? From a source in Spain they have been jabbing almost as long as UK have - not sure what Brussels has to do with the process...?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,770
    MaxPB said:

    The EU vaccine screw-up is the best argument for Brexit.

    They STILL haven't approved the AZ vaccine which is, frankly, ridiculous and their rollout is a complete shambles.

    At this stage it wouldn't matter if they did with only 30m doses available.
    In fairness that would last them the best part of a month at the current rate of distribution.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    DavidL said:

    Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:

    "This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.

    Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."

    Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1352876656915066881

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1352897074635935745

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1352898265541451776
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Ladbrokes' odds are unchanged, but Betfair's have Bottas down to 8 and Russell 9 for the title. Sadly lays aren't close, 14.5 and 20 respectively otherwise I'd be tempted to hedge bets made already.

    Testing is about six weeks away with the first race a week or two after that. Every other driver was confirmed weeks if not months ago. I do expect Hamilton to re-sign but it's peculiar it's taking so long.

    I believe the clue is in Hamiltons "training" tweets from earlier this week.

    He is going back and the paperwork will be dealt with when he arrives in the same room as Toto- which I suspect will be just prior to testing given the current travel restrictions.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    The EU vaccine screw-up is the best argument for Brexit.

    They STILL haven't approved the AZ vaccine which is, frankly, ridiculous and their rollout is a complete shambles.

    At this stage it wouldn't matter if they did with only 30m doses available.
    In fairness that would last them the best part of a month at the current rate of distribution.
    They could always eke them out to last two months by adopting the Blair scheme.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    On topic (remarkably).

    Is there much of a cleavage between Plaid in the Senedd, and Plaid in Westminster?

    If so, I would see rather less prospect of a Plaid-Tory administration.

    They seem to be somewhat so-aligned in the Commons.

    What is perhaps remarkable is the apparent complete demise of the Liberal tradition in Wales. Lloyd-George might have known people's fathers but the sons and daughters seem to have forgotten him.

    And Good Morning everyone. Cold day forecast, with the possibility of snow.
    An inch of snow for me, and quite foggy. Will find out how the puppy likes it shortly.
    Mine was a puppy during Beast from the East - the first hit of snow he was curious but wary, the second a few weeks' later, he loved it. Whenever we find snow in the Alps now, he goes beserk with happiness.
    Not really had snow since the Beast down here in south Devon, but the dog LOVES a sharp frost on the grass. Runs round on it like a demented thing....
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited January 2021
    Another day and another CNN bashing of the UK. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/23/business/brexit-business-intl-gbr/index.html

    Of course, they totally ignore the EU shambles on the vaccine and the UK's stellar rollout which for the next 2 years matters far more than a few rotting haddock.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    edited January 2021
    eek said:

    Been out already. Colder than a penguin's cold bits.

    I don't think it's that bad actually - there is no wind so no windchill making it feel 10 degrees colder
    2 degrees above here in south Devon. No ice on the roads. Sunny. I was the only person in M&S at 8.10 this morning. Not all the stock had been put out yet, but that is a fair trade off to me.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Scott_xP said:
    Most farmers and fisherfolk voted for Brexit, so tough titties.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336

    Scott_xP said:
    Good morning Scott n' Paste :wink:

    I don't find that cartoon either clever or particularly funny. It's very 'meh'.
    On the contrary, I find it quite amusing. Don't forget, a lot of truth is hidden in humour.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Scott_xP said:
    Most farmers and fisherfolk voted for Brexit, so tough titties.
    At the one public meeting I went to on Brexit, a pro-leave farmer was on the panel. He raged and ranted about the 30 page form he had to fill in to get grants from the EU. That seemed to be his only reason to leave.

    Seemed to be under the impression that UK government would just hand farmers money without any forms.

    Deluded doesn't come close.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,770
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:

    "This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.

    Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."

    Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1352876656915066881

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1352897074635935745

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1352898265541451776
    Not sure what point you are seeking to make Scott.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited January 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:

    "This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.

    Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."

    Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1352876656915066881

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1352897074635935745

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1352898265541451776
    Instead of posting every thing you can find that in your mind trashes the UK, why cannot you just be honest and openly accept the EU vaccination scheme is a disaster and will result in thousands of avoidable lost lives.

    Then your other posts could be seen as more balanced as you are able to criticise the EU when they get things wrong, otherwise it is more than reasonable to conclude that you are simply an anti brexit obsessive with no balance and your postings are just tedious
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

    I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

    It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
    I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

    I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

    If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
    Yet again, there are no innervating constitutional controversies that cannot be resolved by the simple expedient of dismantling the United Kingdom. Any argument for oh-so-conveniently Scotland-sized regional assemblies walks out of the door with Scotland itself.
    I hope you are in a better place today? Hold on in there. We will come through this. We are very fortunate to live in a country with one of the best vaccine rollouts in the world and that is a gamechanger. Two or three more months and we'll be coming through, and out, of this.

    x
    Thanks, I think I am. Although I have to disagree on timescales. Even if we discount the possibility of a catastrophic setback (which remains significant: it's not just about homegrown variants of the rotten Plague, we're too dependent on road haulage to lock out imported disease effectively,) things aren't going to get significantly better in two or three months.

    There might be some token easing (e.g. primary schools, gyms, hairdressers) once all the vulnerable and over 50s have been jabbed, but I don't think we're getting properly out of house arrest until the entire adult population's done. I'm certainly not making plans for Summer holidays because they ain't happening, at home as well as abroad. Beyond that, social distancing in some form is going to be with us for at least a year, and we may never be completely rid of it. This is going to be a very long, painful, dispiriting slog, make no mistake.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Morning.

    An interesting thread, but a few comments.

    1) The Liberal Democrats are very unlikely to win any seats. With Kirsty Williams retiring Brecon and Radnor will be very hard to defend, and they have so little strength left elsewhere they won’t get any on the lists. I am expecting Plaid, the Tories and Labour to lock out all 60.

    2) Because of the corrupt electoral system, Labour should win most seats, but given at recent elections the Tories have been running them unexpectedly close in every seat outside the core Valleys and Cardiff, that isn’t a certainty. Equally, the point about campaigning may come into play here. Abject as Price is, he is likely to prove more effective than Drakeford and Davies (who is currently also having to explain why he was in effect visiting the pub during lockdown). That may help Plaid, but I doubt if it will help them enough to come second.

    3) Whoever wins, unless the Tories win at least 29 seats the new government will be some hybrid involving Labour and Plaid, because as David notes, no other permutation makes sense. This is bad news for Wales as Labour are a totally shite government and unfit to clean the public toilets in Cathays Park.

    Finally some people have been asking about Plaid - it’s much easier if you think of it as a political movement with some of the structures of a party, like the Greens, rather than as a wannabe party with a highly centralised command structure and unified agenda like the ScotsNats. So it doesn’t ‘want’ anything in specific as a whole - rather, it feels Wales and the Welsh language have a raw deal and need a better one.
This discussion has been closed.