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Senedd shake-up: what happens if Welsh Labour lose their majority? – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851
    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851

    Not good numbers.

    However, it's worth noting just how many people would be upset in both Scotland and Northern Ireland by independence and reunification, respectively. It's near enough half and half.

    This isn't going to be nirvana or one big happy family whatevr happens.
    I took the same from that. Some real splits.

    A mixed bag tbh. Some underlying hope for unionists with the economy / upset splits
    There's no solution (either which way) that gives no succour to the other side.

    Even a reunified Ireland would need to have a unionist zone where people could still hold British passports and maintain their traditions. Even an independent Scotland would be heavily constrained by its need for a very close relationship with England, and limited influence within the EU.

    The better solution is to allow all the identities to flourish in a system and model that respects them.

    The UK mustn't make the same mistakes towards Scotland that the EU did towards the UK, for example.
    I think we focus too much on identity at times - it's so fashionable. A lot of Scots find themselves in a position where they are governed by a party not many of them vote for.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited January 2021
    malcolmg said:

    I'm torn between that shows Scots aren't civilised enough to be independent and that I want Scotland to go independent because I don't want to part of a people who think that's acceptable toppings on pizza.
    No way any self respecting human would eat that , SUN must have paid them to make one of those and come out with such porkies. Bet they have sold ZERO if it is indeed available.
    Well, there IS no accounting for taste!

    Though you DO have a point. The bananna-pineapple-rhubarb(?) pizza reminds me of a story I read years ago by (or about) a British expert on Arabia (perhaps it was Kim Philby's father?) which claimed that many of the so-called "delicacies" offered to foreign visitors by Arab potentates, were actually practical jokes.

    "Hey, let's give this guy a couple of sheep eye-balls, claim it's great honor - and see if the dumb SOB will actually eat 'em!"
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Panelbase polling on Scottish independence (DKs excluded):
    Nov 2020 Yes 56% No 44%
    Jan 2021 Yes 52% No 48%

    I hadn’t realised the gap had shifted.

    Probably winnable for unionists. Not sure how long for though - I can see a situation in the future where Scotland becomes 60% pro Indy in the future due to demographics

    I still don’t understand why the Westminster gov doesn’t seriously look at constitutional change or reform. Hoping things hold isn’t working
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,080

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    If the vaccines are very efficient at protecting people but the virus keeps going around with the non-vaccinated suffering badly, that itself might improve their view of vaccination.
  • Not good numbers.

    However, it's worth noting just how many people would be upset in both Scotland and Northern Ireland by independence and reunification, respectively. It's near enough half and half.

    This isn't going to be nirvana or one big happy family whatevr happens.
    I took the same from that. Some real splits.

    A mixed bag tbh. Some underlying hope for unionists with the economy / upset splits
    There's no solution (either which way) that gives no succour to the other side.

    Even a reunified Ireland would need to have a unionist zone where people could still hold British passports and maintain their traditions. Even an independent Scotland would be heavily constrained by its need for a very close relationship with England, and limited influence within the EU.

    The better solution is to allow all the identities to flourish in a system and model that respects them.

    The UK mustn't make the same mistakes towards Scotland that the EU did towards the UK, for example.
    The EU made a big mistake allowing the UK decide whether it wanted to remain a member or not. No way the UK is falling for that one.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    AnneJGP said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    If the vaccines are very efficient at protecting people but the virus keeps going around with the non-vaccinated suffering badly, that itself might improve their view of vaccination.
    I am cautiously hopeful that the ultimate result of this will be a serious reduction in the number of anti-vaxxers more generally. It's hard to believe vaccines are bad generally when everyone you know has had one recently and is thankful for the resumption in their everyday life that has resulted. The reason why the anti-vax movement has been able to gain traction is because almost no-one alive today really knows anyone who's died from the things we routinely vaccinate against, so the COVID vaccine should hopefully refresh our collective memories on that front.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    AnneJGP said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    If the vaccines are very efficient at protecting people but the virus keeps going around with the non-vaccinated suffering badly, that itself might improve their view of vaccination.
    The easiest way to get the kids vaccinated, is by telling them they can’t get on a plane without either a vaccine certificate or a £100 test.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,590

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,590
    Floater said:
    I try to watch his update videos every day. He's been posting videos on C19 for about a year although I only discovered his channel a couple of weeks ago.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Panelbase polling on Scottish independence (DKs excluded):
    Nov 2020 Yes 56% No 44%
    Jan 2021 Yes 52% No 48%

    I hadn’t realised the gap had shifted.

    Probably winnable for unionists. Not sure how long for though - I can see a situation in the future where Scotland becomes 60% pro Indy in the future due to demographics

    I still don’t understand why the Westminster gov doesn’t seriously look at constitutional change or reform. Hoping things hold isn’t working

    It's too hard, and now it is so late it would look like a desperate gamble, which it would be.

    I think the next referendum, when it happens, is winnable for Remain, though I think it will lose, but it'll be on things as they are now.
  • geoffw said:

    About those communities reluctant to have a jab, it would be a good idea if the "community leaders" set an example by themselves having jabs with some publicity. Otherwise when it has died down there will still be continuing embers in the fire ready to flare up again.

    Nearly as embarrassing as your comment on Kamala Harris not experiencing racism.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-55752056
    Hoping it will soon be doing 300-500 vaccinations a day is a decent beacon of hope, albeit with not the brightest of bulbs. We need to see this setting a trend, not being a one-off worthy of a BBC page in itself.
    It's being rolled out in lots of places, just waiting for the ok from the NHS and others that the nominated mosques are suitable.
    Great idea to use mosques, churches, synagogues, temples, whatever as vaccination centers, indeed for even more public health efforts.

    Here on this side of the Atlantic (and Pacific) we are VERY used to using churches and other religious venues as community centers, NOT just for members of a particular faith, but also for neighbors of other faiths, or of none.

    For example, widespread use of churches, etc. as voting locations. Because they are both ubiquitous across the landscape AND generally have halls, meeting rooms or some kind of space that is suitable, for example has ample space, heat and air conditioning, as well as being accessible to folks with disabilities.

    And when I was a kid, was member of Boy Scout troop that met in the basement of the local Lutheran Church, though most of the scouts (including me) and scoutmasters were NOT Lutherans. We had our meetings there because it was convenient, and available because the pastor & congregation offered it gratis, as a service to us kids and the whole community.

    Must say this is one thing I love about my country, always have and always will.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    They won't be evenly spread around, either. Heavily concentrated in very rich and very poor areas, would be my guess, with the emphasis firmly on the latter. I'm counting the days till Mr Khan and certain Labour Opposition frontbenchers are trying to blame the Government for the fact that the virus has been essentially eliminated other than in certain Labour-voting inner city areas.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,590

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Pulpstar said:
    I saw that the other day. For something whipped together pretty quickly it was alright.
  • Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    I don't see any issue with the replies, herd immunity is a desirable outcome. Quite why those responses justified a block is beyond me.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Not good numbers.

    However, it's worth noting just how many people would be upset in both Scotland and Northern Ireland by independence and reunification, respectively. It's near enough half and half.

    This isn't going to be nirvana or one big happy family whatevr happens.
    I took the same from that. Some real splits.

    A mixed bag tbh. Some underlying hope for unionists with the economy / upset splits
    There's no solution (either which way) that gives no succour to the other side.

    Even a reunified Ireland would need to have a unionist zone where people could still hold British passports and maintain their traditions. Even an independent Scotland would be heavily constrained by its need for a very close relationship with England, and limited influence within the EU.

    The better solution is to allow all the identities to flourish in a system and model that respects them.

    The UK mustn't make the same mistakes towards Scotland that the EU did towards the UK, for example.
    The EU made a big mistake allowing the UK decide whether it wanted to remain a member or not. No way the UK is falling for that one.
    You mean, "No way the UK is falling for that one again".
  • RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    I don't see any issue with the replies, herd immunity is a desirable outcome. Quite why those responses justified a block is beyond me.
    So you're saying you wouldn't have made the same choice. Sure, me to. But that's not the question.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    Andy_JS said:
    We wont ever eliminate the virus as Whitty and co have said many times.
    Not completely, no, but we can eliminate it from general circulation and then stamp down hard on any outbreaks with test, trace and aggressive isolation. That should be achievable with the help of the vaccines, even if they don't quite push the unrestricted R below 1.

    We'd pretty much done it without vaccines at the end of June, and could probably have avoided the second wave with closed borders and more careful reopening. Yes I know it was summer, and that obviously does play a role, but there are plenty of warmer countries with nasty Covid problems as well, so it was primarily the lockdown that had reduced cases that far.
  • Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    Sure. But for a professional, it is NOT a good look, and thus probably a bad choice by (and for) her.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Endillion said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    They won't be evenly spread around, either. Heavily concentrated in very rich and very poor areas, would be my guess, with the emphasis firmly on the latter. I'm counting the days till Mr Khan and certain Labour Opposition frontbenchers are trying to blame the Government for the fact that the virus has been essentially eliminated other than in certain Labour-voting inner city areas.
    This is the great danger if we arrive at a situation where the virus is still burning through certain communities after it's calmed down everywhere else. The left-wing shit stirrers will scream racism. The right-wing shit stirrers will blame those communities for the fact that the virus hasn't been properly suppressed. The left-wing shit stirrers will use the remarks of the right-wing shit stirrers as proof that people in these communities are still dying in droves because of racism. And thus we get sucked down the culture wars plughole, which helps absolutely no-one.

    Fortunately there are many stories of local leaders in these areas helping by having the vaccines themselves to reassure people and offering premises as vaccination hubs, so hopefully that will be enough to turn this whole thing off before it gets properly started. We've enough problems to deal with, without the usual suspects mouthing off.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,893
    Evening all :)

    As I'm some way down the vaccination order, all I can offer from lowland East London is perception. Excel has opened as a mass vaccination centre and East Ham tube station has detailed instructions on how to get there via the DLR which is quite an easy journey.

    I had hoped we would see more local facilities - the local Church Hall for example - but for now it seems we will all have to try to get to Excel.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    I wouldn't take such subsamples too seriously. Quite a bit of antivaxxing in Leicester.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    I don't see any issue with the replies, herd immunity is a desirable outcome. Quite why those responses justified a block is beyond me.
    So you're saying you wouldn't have made the same choice. Sure, me to. But that's not the question.
    Academic debate doesn't consist of blocking/ignoring people you disagree with.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As I'm some way down the vaccination order, all I can offer from lowland East London is perception. Excel has opened as a mass vaccination centre and East Ham tube station has detailed instructions on how to get there via the DLR which is quite an easy journey.

    I had hoped we would see more local facilities - the local Church Hall for example - but for now it seems we will all have to try to get to Excel.

    Yes, what did happen to all these promised local vaccination places? Have they been put on hold until supply is better or has the centralising tendency triumphed and everything will be delivered via a smallish number of centres?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,590

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    It is, but usually it's better to listen to as wide a range of views as possible, unless they're totally ridiculous.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    I don't see any issue with the replies, herd immunity is a desirable outcome. Quite why those responses justified a block is beyond me.
    So you're saying you wouldn't have made the same choice. Sure, me to. But that's not the question.
    The issue is what it says about someone's credentials as a professional/expert worth listening to, if their immediate response to a seemingly reasonable challenge is shut down the debate. Obviously no-one's querying their right to control their feed on a personal level.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    Younger population too. Young people less keen to have the jab.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    I don't see any issue with the replies, herd immunity is a desirable outcome. Quite why those responses justified a block is beyond me.
    So you're saying you wouldn't have made the same choice. Sure, me to. But that's not the question.
    Academic debate doesn't consist of blocking/ignoring people you disagree with.
    I think as with most things like this it is the perception that ends up mattering more than anything. For someone in that position to block someone for what seems like pretty innocuous challenges, well, it looks bad. Things that would be mere personal choice to avoid hassle looks more troublesome when someone holds a presitgious or influential position.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Endillion said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    They won't be evenly spread around, either. Heavily concentrated in very rich and very poor areas, would be my guess, with the emphasis firmly on the latter. I'm counting the days till Mr Khan and certain Labour Opposition frontbenchers are trying to blame the Government for the fact that the virus has been essentially eliminated other than in certain Labour-voting inner city areas.
    This is the great danger if we arrive at a situation where the virus is still burning through certain communities after it's calmed down everywhere else. The left-wing shit stirrers will scream racism. The right-wing shit stirrers will blame those communities for the fact that the virus hasn't been properly suppressed. The left-wing shit stirrers will use the remarks of the right-wing shit stirrers as proof that people in these communities are still dying in droves because of racism. And thus we get sucked down the culture wars plughole, which helps absolutely no-one.

    Fortunately there are many stories of local leaders in these areas helping by having the vaccines themselves to reassure people and offering premises as vaccination hubs, so hopefully that will be enough to turn this whole thing off before it gets properly started. We've enough problems to deal with, without the usual suspects mouthing off.
    Dave Spart says "injection is colonialism".
  • Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    Sure. But for a professional, it is NOT a good look, and thus probably a bad choice by (and for) her.
    If you like.
    In balance I would point out that Twitter is cesspit and people, women especially, have to put up with a lot that they shouldn't have to.
    What looks like a hair-trigger overreaction in a couple of screenshots might actually be the culmination of a long and problematic pattern of behaviour. I don't know, and probably most on here don't either. We shouldn't moralise about people excluding themselves from certain conversations, they are the best judge of what they want.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/brexit-hit-firms-advised-government-officials-set-up-shop-in-eu

    Apologies if posted already. Pretty extraordinary, the UK government actually advising UK firms to move their operations to the EU, with ensuing loss of jobs, tax revenue etc.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    Sure. But for a professional, it is NOT a good look, and thus probably a bad choice by (and for) her.
    If you like.
    In balance I would point out that Twitter is cesspit and people, women especially, have to put up with a lot that they shouldn't have to.
    What looks like a hair-trigger overreaction in a couple of screenshots might actually be the culmination of a long and problematic pattern of behaviour. I don't know, and probably most on here don't either. We shouldn't moralise about people excluding themselves from certain conversations, they are the best judge of what they want.
    Or, more likely, it's a hair-trigger reaction for her being called out on the rubbish in her original tweet.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Andy_JS said:

    Floater said:
    I try to watch his update videos every day. He's been posting videos on C19 for about a year although I only discovered his channel a couple of weeks ago.
    I have been listening from the beginning

    He has turned up on several news shows around the world too
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As I'm some way down the vaccination order, all I can offer from lowland East London is perception. Excel has opened as a mass vaccination centre and East Ham tube station has detailed instructions on how to get there via the DLR which is quite an easy journey.

    I had hoped we would see more local facilities - the local Church Hall for example - but for now it seems we will all have to try to get to Excel.

    How many GP surgeries are also vaccinating though? I'm working on the assumption that all our old crocs are going to the doctors' in town, not being made to drive or get on trains to Stevenage or Cambridge.

    Might also be a function of being in London to begin with. Even with the pandemic there are plenty of public transport options in big cities, and no more so than in London, where travel for the crocs is also free. Different matter in the sticks.
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As I'm some way down the vaccination order, all I can offer from lowland East London is perception. Excel has opened as a mass vaccination centre and East Ham tube station has detailed instructions on how to get there via the DLR which is quite an easy journey.

    I had hoped we would see more local facilities - the local Church Hall for example - but for now it seems we will all have to try to get to Excel.

    Yes, what did happen to all these promised local vaccination places? Have they been put on hold until supply is better or has the centralising tendency triumphed and everything will be delivered via a smallish number of centres?
    Localised approach here in Lancashire and 85% of over 80's vaccinated and already well on with the 75 plus cohort. Can't understand the obsession with mega-centres.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    It is, but usually it's better to listen to as wide a range of views as possible, unless they're totally ridiculous.
    That's a worthy thing to recommend someone do. But to judge it inappropriate that someone has opted out of hearing from a particular person is a big leap beyond that.
  • RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    Sure. But for a professional, it is NOT a good look, and thus probably a bad choice by (and for) her.
    If you like.
    In balance I would point out that Twitter is cesspit and people, women especially, have to put up with a lot that they shouldn't have to.
    What looks like a hair-trigger overreaction in a couple of screenshots might actually be the culmination of a long and problematic pattern of behaviour. I don't know, and probably most on here don't either. We shouldn't moralise about people excluding themselves from certain conversations, they are the best judge of what they want.
    Or, more likely, it's a hair-trigger reaction for her being called out on the rubbish in her original tweet.
    Possibly, but once again it's her choice.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    Younger population too. Young people less keen to have the jab.
    Might have something to do with it. A quick search comes up with this:

    London's population is comparatively young; the average (median) age in London is 35.6, compared to 40.3 in the UK overall. More than one in 10 people living in Inner London (11.4%) are aged between 30 and 34. This compares to just 6.3% of those in the rest of England.

    A five year gap is actually larger than I'd expected or realised.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    edited January 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    It is, but usually it's better to listen to as wide a range of views as possible, unless they're totally ridiculous.
    From the original article at https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/covid-19-herd-immunity-strategy-flawed-until-we-have-coronavirus-vaccine-professor-devi-sridhar-2981017:

    The term ‘herd immunity’ keeps being raised during the Covid-19 pandemic. What does it mean? Herd immunity has been used as a vaccine strategy for diseases such as measles, mumps and rubella and means vaccinating the bulk of the population, thus preventing the ongoing transmission of these infectious diseases, and protecting the vulnerable (eg immuno-compromised) who cannot have the vaccine.

    In the absence of a vaccine, it means having a certain percentage of the population contract the virus (50-80 per cent), develop antibodies or a T-cell response, and then have lasting protection from Sars-CoV-2 and not transmit it to others.

    A herd-immunity strategy without a vaccine has been advocated as segmenting the population by age, and asking vulnerable/elderly groups to ‘shield’ while the virus runs through the young and healthy members of the group (‘the herd’).
    So she clearly distinguishes between herd immunity the concept, including in the context of vaccines, and herd immunity the strategy of letting the virus run through the population.

    And he then goes and accuses her of not knowing what herd immunity the concept means. I can see why she might reach for the block button after being patronised like that.
  • BBC News - Covid: Number of patients on ventilators passes 4,000 for first time
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55782716
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,678

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As I'm some way down the vaccination order, all I can offer from lowland East London is perception. Excel has opened as a mass vaccination centre and East Ham tube station has detailed instructions on how to get there via the DLR which is quite an easy journey.

    I had hoped we would see more local facilities - the local Church Hall for example - but for now it seems we will all have to try to get to Excel.

    Yes, what did happen to all these promised local vaccination places? Have they been put on hold until supply is better or has the centralising tendency triumphed and everything will be delivered via a smallish number of centres?
    Localised approach here in Lancashire and 85% of over 80's vaccinated and already well on with the 75 plus cohort. Can't understand the obsession with mega-centres.
    The logistics of the Pfizer vaccine mean that a mega-centre is a lot easier. Not such a problem for AZN/Oxford.

    There are lots of local vaccination centres. Hundreds and hundreds. There are only about 10-20 large ones.

    And there are more being built all the time. The ramping up hasn't anywhere near finished.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As I'm some way down the vaccination order, all I can offer from lowland East London is perception. Excel has opened as a mass vaccination centre and East Ham tube station has detailed instructions on how to get there via the DLR which is quite an easy journey.

    I had hoped we would see more local facilities - the local Church Hall for example - but for now it seems we will all have to try to get to Excel.

    Yes, what did happen to all these promised local vaccination places? Have they been put on hold until supply is better or has the centralising tendency triumphed and everything will be delivered via a smallish number of centres?
    Localised approach here in Lancashire and 85% of over 80's vaccinated and already well on with the 75 plus cohort. Can't understand the obsession with mega-centres.
    More efficient.

    I'd say that both approaches probably have their place, though the big vaccination hubs will come more and more into their own as the vaccine program works its way down the age cohorts. Working age recipients will, on average, be far more mobile, more receptive to early and late appointments, and better able to put up with waits in long chilly queues outside large buildings than the crocs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128
    edited January 2021
    Some encouraging news for Unionists in ST poll in that less than half of Scots want independence now including don't knows, more Northern Irish voters oppose a United Ireland than back it and the vast majority of English and Welsh voters wish to stay in the UK

    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1353044013776035840?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,094
    edited January 2021

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As I'm some way down the vaccination order, all I can offer from lowland East London is perception. Excel has opened as a mass vaccination centre and East Ham tube station has detailed instructions on how to get there via the DLR which is quite an easy journey.

    I had hoped we would see more local facilities - the local Church Hall for example - but for now it seems we will all have to try to get to Excel.

    Yes, what did happen to all these promised local vaccination places? Have they been put on hold until supply is better or has the centralising tendency triumphed and everything will be delivered via a smallish number of centres?
    Localised approach here in Lancashire and 85% of over 80's vaccinated and already well on with the 75 plus cohort. Can't understand the obsession with mega-centres.
    The logistics of the Pfizer vaccine mean that a mega-centre is a lot easier. Not such a problem for AZN/Oxford.

    There are lots of local vaccination centres. Hundreds and hundreds. There are only about 10-20 large ones.

    And there are more being built all the time. The ramping up hasn't anywhere near finished.
    Nearly 500k/day and plan to go from ~20 hubs to 50 in the next couple of weeks...

    Like Johnny 5....need more data doses....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    Sure. But for a professional, it is NOT a good look, and thus probably a bad choice by (and for) her.
    If you like.
    In balance I would point out that Twitter is cesspit and people, women especially, have to put up with a lot that they shouldn't have to.
    What looks like a hair-trigger overreaction in a couple of screenshots might actually be the culmination of a long and problematic pattern of behaviour. I don't know, and probably most on here don't either. We shouldn't moralise about people excluding themselves from certain conversations, they are the best judge of what they want.
    Or, more likely, it's a hair-trigger reaction for her being called out on the rubbish in her original tweet.
    Possibly, but once again it's her choice.
    Who said it wasn't? People are questioning the optics of that choice.
  • RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    Sure. But for a professional, it is NOT a good look, and thus probably a bad choice by (and for) her.
    If you like.
    In balance I would point out that Twitter is cesspit and people, women especially, have to put up with a lot that they shouldn't have to.
    What looks like a hair-trigger overreaction in a couple of screenshots might actually be the culmination of a long and problematic pattern of behaviour. I don't know, and probably most on here don't either. We shouldn't moralise about people excluding themselves from certain conversations, they are the best judge of what they want.
    Or, more likely, it's a hair-trigger reaction for her being called out on the rubbish in her original tweet.
    Possibly, but once again it's her choice.
    Sridhar has doubtless been somewhat politicised by guys with WATP in their twitter profile bellowing at her. I might be a bit over sensitive if some rando had e-mailed me with “Mind your own business >> Devi Sridhar << you ignorant fascist c***.”

    https://tinyurl.com/y52sxfuk
  • https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/brexit-hit-firms-advised-government-officials-set-up-shop-in-eu

    Apologies if posted already. Pretty extraordinary, the UK government actually advising UK firms to move their operations to the EU, with ensuing loss of jobs, tax revenue etc.

    "How to do international trade after our barrier-free Brexit? Set up your company abroad". Sound advice from the Department for International Trade.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    Floater said:
    Where's his prompt statement on the Express story!

    That poster the other day that de-lurked. Claimed not to be SeanT. Total cover for Biden, and yet, despite him not having so much to do now he's comfy in the Trump armchair he chooses to issue a statement concerning the wrong Boris!

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,870
    edited January 2021
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As I'm some way down the vaccination order, all I can offer from lowland East London is perception. Excel has opened as a mass vaccination centre and East Ham tube station has detailed instructions on how to get there via the DLR which is quite an easy journey.

    I had hoped we would see more local facilities - the local Church Hall for example - but for now it seems we will all have to try to get to Excel.

    @stodge

    Across the Roding, here in Ilford (Redbridge), my Mum (70+) got a call from her surgery on Wednesday afternoon asking if she could attend to get her first jab the same evening (8.30). All done rather efficiently, Mum arrived and departed in less than 10 minutes. Next dose confirmed for April even while she was still on the phone that afternoon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    Sure. But for a professional, it is NOT a good look, and thus probably a bad choice by (and for) her.
    If you like.
    In balance I would point out that Twitter is cesspit and people, women especially, have to put up with a lot that they shouldn't have to.
    What looks like a hair-trigger overreaction in a couple of screenshots might actually be the culmination of a long and problematic pattern of behaviour. I don't know, and probably most on here don't either. We shouldn't moralise about people excluding themselves from certain conversations, they are the best judge of what they want.
    Or, more likely, it's a hair-trigger reaction for her being called out on the rubbish in her original tweet.
    Possibly, but once again it's her choice.
    Sridhar has doubtless been somewhat politicised by guys with WATP in their twitter profile bellowing at her. I might be a bit over sensitive if some rando had e-mailed me with “Mind your own business >> Devi Sridhar
    People on twitter are awful. I'd advise professionals who for whatever reason it is felt should have an account never to read anything on it, only use it to post things. That way you also don't need to face arguments about blocking people for disagreeing with you.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/brexit-hit-firms-advised-government-officials-set-up-shop-in-eu

    Apologies if posted already. Pretty extraordinary, the UK government actually advising UK firms to move their operations to the EU, with ensuing loss of jobs, tax revenue etc.

    "How to do international trade after our barrier-free Brexit? Set up your company abroad". Sound advice from the Department for International Trade.
    The worst thing is, it is good advice. What a mess.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,094
    edited January 2021
    Now you know when some people said Boris should get the vaccine to show the country it was safe.....

    Spain’s defence chief resigned on Saturday, the armed forces said, after getting vaccinated despite not being on a priority list caused a row.

    General Miguel Angel Villarroya’s resignation came as a scandal brews over Spanish military and political officials getting early vaccinations supposedly reserved for health workers and people in retirement homes.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/brexit-hit-firms-advised-government-officials-set-up-shop-in-eu

    Apologies if posted already. Pretty extraordinary, the UK government actually advising UK firms to move their operations to the EU, with ensuing loss of jobs, tax revenue etc.

    Encouraging, I think, that government officials are for the first time being realistic about the effects of Brexit, even if they are not keeping to the script. If you can do something to mitigate Brexit, you should and hopefully a bunch of businesses will survive the effects of Brexit as a result of doing so.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited January 2021

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/brexit-hit-firms-advised-government-officials-set-up-shop-in-eu

    Apologies if posted already. Pretty extraordinary, the UK government actually advising UK firms to move their operations to the EU, with ensuing loss of jobs, tax revenue etc.

    "How to do international trade after our barrier-free Brexit? Set up your company abroad". Sound advice from the Department for International Trade.
    Quite a masterstroke of humanitarian genius that keeps the xenophobes happy. It reduces the need for Johnny (Eastern European) Foreigner to work in the UK, by exporting him along with his job. Brilliant!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Omnium said:

    Floater said:
    Where's his prompt statement on the Express story!

    That poster the other day that de-lurked. Claimed not to be SeanT. Total cover for Biden, and yet, despite him not having so much to do now he's comfy in the Trump armchair he chooses to issue a statement concerning the wrong Boris!

    Leon is definitely SeanT, isn’t he?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    BBC rejects race complaint about use of ‘nitty-gritty’

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bbc-rejects-race-complaint-about-use-of-nitty-gritty-zmq96nzvq

    But MOTD aren't allowed to use it.

    TBH, I had no idea that anyone associated that term with racism. Can you be racist for using a term that you had no idea was racist?
    Don't use the word "spook" on American chat-rooms unless wearing flame-retardent clothing.
    Really? I thought it meant spy over there too, as in a CIA spook. Though IIRC the show Spooks was renamed to MI-5 for the american market.
    Another one to be careful of is "thug" - through usage it has become associated, in the US, with er.... pejorative, and inaccurate labelling of young black gentlemen.
    Wasn't that originally a somewhat 'eccentric' quasi religious group in India?
    Although I suppose that's just as bad!
    Malaysia I believe - the Thugees were followers of Kali
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Now you know when some people said Boris should get the vaccine to show the country it was safe.....

    Spain’s defence chief resigned on Saturday, the armed forces said, after getting vaccinated despite not being on a priority list caused a row.

    General Miguel Angel Villarroya’s resignation came as a scandal brews over Spanish military and political officials getting early vaccinations supposedly reserved for health workers and people in retirement homes.

    That would be quite the scandal. People may moan about priority lists and disagree about them - I wouldn't object to MPs for instance being relatively high priority for example, but others would - but to have a list and then jump it? I don't know what the Spanish press is like, but ours would go ballistic.
  • glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    What the hell happened to scientists challenging and arguing with each other? It’s the whole basis of science - or at least it was, before science started to become political.
    The pandemic has amply demonstrated that a person can be eminent in their own field and yet surprisingly ignorant of things adjacent to it never mind far removed, and that now matter how smart and well educated you might be you can also still be a deeply stupid person in a whole load of other ways. The last year has been a real eye-opener.
    they made it political.

    we all get that.

    just wish they would acknowledge it!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    Younger population too. Young people less keen to have the jab.
    Might have something to do with it. A quick search comes up with this:

    London's population is comparatively young; the average (median) age in London is 35.6, compared to 40.3 in the UK overall. More than one in 10 people living in Inner London (11.4%) are aged between 30 and 34. This compares to just 6.3% of those in the rest of England.

    A five year gap is actually larger than I'd expected or realised.
    It's always striking when you leave London, people look a lot older, whiter and fatter than you're used to in the Smoke.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    No.
    Yes, of course it is. It's entirely her choice.
    Sure. But for a professional, it is NOT a good look, and thus probably a bad choice by (and for) her.
    If you like.
    In balance I would point out that Twitter is cesspit and people, women especially, have to put up with a lot that they shouldn't have to.
    What looks like a hair-trigger overreaction in a couple of screenshots might actually be the culmination of a long and problematic pattern of behaviour. I don't know, and probably most on here don't either. We shouldn't moralise about people excluding themselves from certain conversations, they are the best judge of what they want.
    Or, more likely, it's a hair-trigger reaction for her being called out on the rubbish in her original tweet.
    Possibly, but once again it's her choice.
    Sridhar has doubtless been somewhat politicised by guys with WATP in their twitter profile bellowing at her. I might be a bit over sensitive if some rando had e-mailed me with “Mind your own business >> Devi Sridhar
    People on twitter are awful. I'd advise professionals who for whatever reason it is felt should have an account never to read anything on it, only use it to post things. That way you also don't need to face arguments about blocking people for disagreeing with you.
    Communication is more effective with a bit of interaction though. So I guess the skill is to scan past the nasty stuff without getting riled up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    BBC News - Covid: Number of patients on ventilators passes 4,000 for first time
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55782716

    Certainly things are looking to get worse in the Midlands, with pressure on ICU to surge further, by stretching staff thinner and press-ganging staff from other areas.

    The forecast is for 700 covid inpatients in my Trust by next weekend, so 3 times the first wave. People are looking rather worn out by it all.
  • glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    What the hell happened to scientists challenging and arguing with each other? It’s the whole basis of science - or at least it was, before science started to become political.
    The pandemic has amply demonstrated that a person can be eminent in their own field and yet surprisingly ignorant of things adjacent to it never mind far removed, and that now matter how smart and well educated you might be you can also still be a deeply stupid person in a whole load of other ways. The last year has been a real eye-opener.
    For example Professor Gupta, who is an expert in theoretical epidemiology, but completely ignorant of practical epidemiology.
    you spelled Ferguson wrong.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    Younger population too. Young people less keen to have the jab.
    Might have something to do with it. A quick search comes up with this:

    London's population is comparatively young; the average (median) age in London is 35.6, compared to 40.3 in the UK overall. More than one in 10 people living in Inner London (11.4%) are aged between 30 and 34. This compares to just 6.3% of those in the rest of England.

    A five year gap is actually larger than I'd expected or realised.
    It's always striking when you leave London, people look a lot older, whiter and fatter than you're used to in the Smoke.
    Yes, even going to somewhere like Essex or Kent is quite jarring for a Londoner.
  • HYUFD said:

    Some encouraging news for Unionists in ST poll in that less than half of Scots want independence now including don't knows, more Northern Irish voters oppose a United Ireland than back it and the vast majority of English and Welsh voters wish to stay in the UK

    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1353044013776035840?s=20

    BUT how would the concept of an independent Northern Ireland - independent of both UK and ROI - poll?

    Would be interesting to find out AND see the sub-samples on THAT.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770

    Omnium said:

    Floater said:
    Where's his prompt statement on the Express story!

    That poster the other day that de-lurked. Claimed not to be SeanT. Total cover for Biden, and yet, despite him not having so much to do now he's comfy in the Trump armchair he chooses to issue a statement concerning the wrong Boris!

    Leon is definitely SeanT, isn’t he?
    SeanT is definitely SeanT. He's perfectly capable of de-lurking. We may not notice for the first minute or so mind :)

  • MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    Younger population too. Young people less keen to have the jab.
    Might have something to do with it. A quick search comes up with this:

    London's population is comparatively young; the average (median) age in London is 35.6, compared to 40.3 in the UK overall. More than one in 10 people living in Inner London (11.4%) are aged between 30 and 34. This compares to just 6.3% of those in the rest of England.

    A five year gap is actually larger than I'd expected or realised.
    It's always striking when you leave London, people look a lot older, whiter and fatter than you're used to in the Smoke.
    Yes, even going to somewhere like Essex or Kent is quite jarring for a Londoner.
    Isn't going to Essex jarring for everybody who isn't from Essex?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,362

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As I'm some way down the vaccination order, all I can offer from lowland East London is perception. Excel has opened as a mass vaccination centre and East Ham tube station has detailed instructions on how to get there via the DLR which is quite an easy journey.

    I had hoped we would see more local facilities - the local Church Hall for example - but for now it seems we will all have to try to get to Excel.

    Yes, what did happen to all these promised local vaccination places? Have they been put on hold until supply is better or has the centralising tendency triumphed and everything will be delivered via a smallish number of centres?
    Localised approach here in Lancashire and 85% of over 80's vaccinated and already well on with the 75 plus cohort. Can't understand the obsession with mega-centres.
    The logistics of the Pfizer vaccine mean that a mega-centre is a lot easier. Not such a problem for AZN/Oxford.

    There are lots of local vaccination centres. Hundreds and hundreds. There are only about 10-20 large ones.

    And there are more being built all the time. The ramping up hasn't anywhere near finished.
    Nearly 500k/day and plan to go from ~20 hubs to 50 in the next couple of weeks...

    Like Johnny 5....need more data doses....
    What people keep missing is that it is an "and" strategy.

    Hospitals and GPs and mega centres and Boots and Tesco and churches and mosques and racetracks.......
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Panelbase polling on Scottish independence (DKs excluded):
    Nov 2020 Yes 56% No 44%
    Jan 2021 Yes 52% No 48%

    I hadn’t realised the gap had shifted.

    Probably winnable for unionists. Not sure how long for though - I can see a situation in the future where Scotland becomes 60% pro Indy in the future due to demographics

    I still don’t understand why the Westminster gov doesn’t seriously look at constitutional change or reform. Hoping things hold isn’t working

    There is a good argument to put to the people of Scotland: don't allow the SNP to repeat for Scotland the kind of mess Tories imposed on the UK with Brexit. The Tories, and the Johnson government in particular, aren't in a good place to make that argument. Also the Johnson regime is very arrogant towards Scotland.
  • Floater said:
    Refreshing having a TRUE American in the White House, as opposed to Putinist stooge (NOT to be confused with PB stodge).
  • https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/brexit-hit-firms-advised-government-officials-set-up-shop-in-eu

    Apologies if posted already. Pretty extraordinary, the UK government actually advising UK firms to move their operations to the EU, with ensuing loss of jobs, tax revenue etc.

    "How to do international trade after our barrier-free Brexit? Set up your company abroad". Sound advice from the Department for International Trade.
    Quite a masterstroke of humanitarian genius that keeps the xenophobes happy. It reduces the need for Johnny (Eastern European) Foreigner to work in the UK, by exporting him along with his job. Brilliant!
    I sat in on a two-hour "how to do trade" briefing by DiT officials in December. Other than explaining the "17 steps to send stuff to France" script, when people asked specific questions the answers were "we don't know that yet".

    So its not a surprise that they are giving honest answers. There is no fix possible for so many businesses with the idiot deal we have signed. And as that epic FT report the other day suggested, Shagger had literally no idea how his vague "sovereignty" request would actually work in practice.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,362

    glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    What the hell happened to scientists challenging and arguing with each other? It’s the whole basis of science - or at least it was, before science started to become political.
    The pandemic has amply demonstrated that a person can be eminent in their own field and yet surprisingly ignorant of things adjacent to it never mind far removed, and that now matter how smart and well educated you might be you can also still be a deeply stupid person in a whole load of other ways. The last year has been a real eye-opener.
    For example Professor Gupta, who is an expert in theoretical epidemiology, but completely ignorant of practical epidemiology.
    you spelled Ferguson wrong.
    Was I alone in mis-reading that as "theological epidemiology"?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,362
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Floater said:
    Where's his prompt statement on the Express story!

    That poster the other day that de-lurked. Claimed not to be SeanT. Total cover for Biden, and yet, despite him not having so much to do now he's comfy in the Trump armchair he chooses to issue a statement concerning the wrong Boris!

    Leon is definitely SeanT, isn’t he?
    SeanT is definitely SeanT. He's perfectly capable of de-lurking. We may not notice for the first minute or so mind :)

    The worry is that if all the SeanT's de-lurk together, AWS may go down.
  • Omnium said:

    Floater said:
    Where's his prompt statement on the Express story!

    That poster the other day that de-lurked. Claimed not to be SeanT. Total cover for Biden, and yet, despite him not having so much to do now he's comfy in the Trump armchair he chooses to issue a statement concerning the wrong Boris!

    Leon is definitely SeanT, isn’t he?
    Exactly the opposite - Leon is indefinitely SeanT.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    Younger population too. Young people less keen to have the jab.
    Might have something to do with it. A quick search comes up with this:

    London's population is comparatively young; the average (median) age in London is 35.6, compared to 40.3 in the UK overall. More than one in 10 people living in Inner London (11.4%) are aged between 30 and 34. This compares to just 6.3% of those in the rest of England.

    A five year gap is actually larger than I'd expected or realised.
    It's always striking when you leave London, people look a lot older, whiter and fatter than you're used to in the Smoke.
    fair play.

    shame I can't ping them a pint
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,697

    glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    What the hell happened to scientists challenging and arguing with each other? It’s the whole basis of science - or at least it was, before science started to become political.
    The pandemic has amply demonstrated that a person can be eminent in their own field and yet surprisingly ignorant of things adjacent to it never mind far removed, and that now matter how smart and well educated you might be you can also still be a deeply stupid person in a whole load of other ways. The last year has been a real eye-opener.
    For example Professor Gupta, who is an expert in theoretical epidemiology, but completely ignorant of practical epidemiology.
    you spelled Ferguson wrong.
    Was I alone in mis-reading that as "theological epidemiology"?
    There could be a PhD in that. A study to model the propagation of new beliefs.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    Younger population too. Young people less keen to have the jab.
    Might have something to do with it. A quick search comes up with this:

    London's population is comparatively young; the average (median) age in London is 35.6, compared to 40.3 in the UK overall. More than one in 10 people living in Inner London (11.4%) are aged between 30 and 34. This compares to just 6.3% of those in the rest of England.

    A five year gap is actually larger than I'd expected or realised.
    It's always striking when you leave London, people look a lot older, whiter and fatter than you're used to in the Smoke.
    That would depend on where you are going. You would expect the typical resident of the Home Counties to be far more likely to be white, but only a few years older and probably thinner than the average Londoner. Obesity is strongly correlated with poverty.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    I'd missed this - is it appropriate for an "expert" to block other experts?


    What the hell happened to scientists challenging and arguing with each other? It’s the whole basis of science - or at least it was, before science started to become political.
    The pandemic has amply demonstrated that a person can be eminent in their own field and yet surprisingly ignorant of things adjacent to it never mind far removed, and that now matter how smart and well educated you might be you can also still be a deeply stupid person in a whole load of other ways. The last year has been a real eye-opener.
    For example Professor Gupta, who is an expert in theoretical epidemiology, but completely ignorant of practical epidemiology.
    you spelled Ferguson wrong.
    Was I alone in mis-reading that as "theological epidemiology"?
    There could be a PhD in that. A study to model the propagation of new beliefs.
    They can use QAnon as a case study.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Floater said:
    Where's his prompt statement on the Express story!

    That poster the other day that de-lurked. Claimed not to be SeanT. Total cover for Biden, and yet, despite him not having so much to do now he's comfy in the Trump armchair he chooses to issue a statement concerning the wrong Boris!

    Leon is definitely SeanT, isn’t he?
    SeanT is definitely SeanT. He's perfectly capable of de-lurking. We may not notice for the first minute or so mind :)

    The worry is that if all the SeanT's de-lurk together, AWS may go down.
    My god, you're right. 'I'm the real SeanT' fights could spiral out of control.

    Talking of Spartacus, I'm reading the recent historical work 'Black Spartacus' - I'm reading it slowly as it's hard work. Nonetheless I find it quite fascinating.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    Younger population too. Young people less keen to have the jab.
    Might have something to do with it. A quick search comes up with this:

    London's population is comparatively young; the average (median) age in London is 35.6, compared to 40.3 in the UK overall. More than one in 10 people living in Inner London (11.4%) are aged between 30 and 34. This compares to just 6.3% of those in the rest of England.

    A five year gap is actually larger than I'd expected or realised.
    It's always striking when you leave London, people look a lot older, whiter and fatter than you're used to in the Smoke.
    That would depend on where you are going. You would expect the typical resident of the Home Counties to be far more likely to be white, but only a few years older and probably thinner than the average Londoner. Obesity is strongly correlated with poverty.
    I try to steer clear of the Home Counties if I can help it.
  • MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    Younger population too. Young people less keen to have the jab.
    Might have something to do with it. A quick search comes up with this:

    London's population is comparatively young; the average (median) age in London is 35.6, compared to 40.3 in the UK overall. More than one in 10 people living in Inner London (11.4%) are aged between 30 and 34. This compares to just 6.3% of those in the rest of England.

    A five year gap is actually larger than I'd expected or realised.
    It's always striking when you leave London, people look a lot older, whiter and fatter than you're used to in the Smoke.
    Yes, even going to somewhere like Essex or Kent is quite jarring for a Londoner.
    Isn't going to Essex jarring for everybody who isn't from Essex?
    Yes, but the real fear is crossing the river. That's a complete no-no, except for going to Brighton for the day or attending the racing at Epsom.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,362
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Floater said:
    Where's his prompt statement on the Express story!

    That poster the other day that de-lurked. Claimed not to be SeanT. Total cover for Biden, and yet, despite him not having so much to do now he's comfy in the Trump armchair he chooses to issue a statement concerning the wrong Boris!

    Leon is definitely SeanT, isn’t he?
    SeanT is definitely SeanT. He's perfectly capable of de-lurking. We may not notice for the first minute or so mind :)

    The worry is that if all the SeanT's de-lurk together, AWS may go down.
    My god, you're right. 'I'm the real SeanT' fights could spiral out of control.

    Talking of Spartacus, I'm reading the recent historical work 'Black Spartacus' - I'm reading it slowly as it's hard work. Nonetheless I find it quite fascinating.
    Maybe it will be the sign of End Times......

    Below the thunders of the upper deep,
    Far, far beneath in the abysmal sea,
    His ancient, dreamless, uninvaded sleep
    The SeanT sleepeth
    .
    .

    Until the latter fire shall heat the deep;
    Then once by man and angels to be seen,
    In roaring he shall rise....
  • https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/brexit-hit-firms-advised-government-officials-set-up-shop-in-eu

    Apologies if posted already. Pretty extraordinary, the UK government actually advising UK firms to move their operations to the EU, with ensuing loss of jobs, tax revenue etc.

    "How to do international trade after our barrier-free Brexit? Set up your company abroad". Sound advice from the Department for International Trade.
    Quite a masterstroke of humanitarian genius that keeps the xenophobes happy. It reduces the need for Johnny (Eastern European) Foreigner to work in the UK, by exporting him along with his job. Brilliant!
    I sat in on a two-hour "how to do trade" briefing by DiT officials in December. Other than explaining the "17 steps to send stuff to France" script, when people asked specific questions the answers were "we don't know that yet".

    So its not a surprise that they are giving honest answers. There is no fix possible for so many businesses with the idiot deal we have signed. And as that epic FT report the other day suggested, Shagger had literally no idea how his vague "sovereignty" request would actually work in practice.
    My reading was that he consciously didn't care.

    In BoJo's head, it's better to have complete power over a small shrivelled thing, than share power over a larger, healthier thing.

    Most teenaged boys grow out of this worldview.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    Younger population too. Young people less keen to have the jab.
    Might have something to do with it. A quick search comes up with this:

    London's population is comparatively young; the average (median) age in London is 35.6, compared to 40.3 in the UK overall. More than one in 10 people living in Inner London (11.4%) are aged between 30 and 34. This compares to just 6.3% of those in the rest of England.

    A five year gap is actually larger than I'd expected or realised.
    It's always striking when you leave London, people look a lot older, whiter and fatter than you're used to in the Smoke.
    That would depend on where you are going. You would expect the typical resident of the Home Counties to be far more likely to be white, but only a few years older and probably thinner than the average Londoner. Obesity is strongly correlated with poverty.
    I try to steer clear of the Home Counties if I can help it.
    It's horses for courses, isn't it? There are places I like to visit (well, liked, anyway, before all this kicked off) in London, but no way on Earth would I want to have to live there.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Biden probably does think this, but what would his agenda be in saying so?

    Be that as it may, I think co-opting the EU and its member states into American foreign policy goals is high up Biden's agenda. He will want to join in with EU activity on climate change that has been neglected under Trump, will want to work with the EU on eg Iran and some of the French initiatives on the Middle East and Africa, will possibly see some opportunities of alignment on regulation while resisting other, and will want to strengthen EU resolve against China.

    In earlier times, the UK would have been relied on to push the American interest in Europe. Now the UK's anti-Europeanism is problematic for the US. My guess is that Biden will try not to take sides, while favouring Europe/EU in any argument because that's where the US interest lies. The one-sided honest broker role is a position the US has taken in multiple international disputes; China in the 1940's, Iran in the 1970's, Israel/Palestine for most of their history. It never works.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Heathrow airport directors need to be charged for negligence for this.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just saw a poll that suggested 3% of people in the East Midlands would be very unlikely to have the jab rising to 14% in London. Pause for thought.

    Can only be explained by the higher EM population in London.
    Younger population too. Young people less keen to have the jab.
    Might have something to do with it. A quick search comes up with this:

    London's population is comparatively young; the average (median) age in London is 35.6, compared to 40.3 in the UK overall. More than one in 10 people living in Inner London (11.4%) are aged between 30 and 34. This compares to just 6.3% of those in the rest of England.

    A five year gap is actually larger than I'd expected or realised.
    It's always striking when you leave London, people look a lot older, whiter and fatter than you're used to in the Smoke.
    Yes, even going to somewhere like Essex or Kent is quite jarring for a Londoner.
    Isn't going to Essex jarring for everybody who isn't from Essex?
    Yes, but the real fear is crossing the river. That's a complete no-no, except for going to Brighton for the day or attending the racing at Epsom.
    I've observed that South Londoners are totally fine working, shopping and socialising in North London, even as they claim that the South is somehow vastly superior. No one I know from North London ever goes beyond the South Bank if they can possibly avoid it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Anyone fancy flying a drone over Heathrow?

    (this is a joke in case any spooks are reading)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Despite holding office throughout the over 20 years of is existence, Devolution in Wales - and obviously Scotland - has actually proved a disaster for Labour. The party has lacked the pwers and resources to pursue its own agenda - yet finds it much more difficult than in the pre-Assembly era to pin the blame on a Tory Westminster Government for policy failures. Were I still a voter in Wales, I would vote for the Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party for the List Vote. Get rid of it!
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Floater said:
    Where's his prompt statement on the Express story!

    That poster the other day that de-lurked. Claimed not to be SeanT. Total cover for Biden, and yet, despite him not having so much to do now he's comfy in the Trump armchair he chooses to issue a statement concerning the wrong Boris!

    Leon is definitely SeanT, isn’t he?
    SeanT is definitely SeanT. He's perfectly capable of de-lurking. We may not notice for the first minute or so mind :)

    The worry is that if all the SeanT's de-lurk together, AWS may go down.
    PB used to have a couple of regular posters called Frank and Anti-Frank. They disappeared suddenly.

    The rumour is that one day they tried to post simultaneously with predictably catastrophic consequences.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,882
    HYUFD said:

    Some encouraging news for Unionists in ST poll in that less than half of Scots want independence now including don't knows, more Northern Irish voters oppose a United Ireland than back it and the vast majority of English and Welsh voters wish to stay in the UK

    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1353044013776035840?s=20

    Don't knows don't count. You know that, you aren't stupid. So you are manipulating the data to make your side look good.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    FF43 said:

    Biden probably does think this, but what would his agenda be in saying so?

    Be that as it may, I think co-opting the EU and its member states into American foreign policy goals is high up Biden's agenda. He will want to join in with EU activity on climate change that has been neglected under Trump, will want to work with the EU on eg Iran and some of the French initiatives on the Middle East and Africa, will possibly see some opportunities of alignment on regulation while resisting other, and will want to strengthen EU resolve against China.

    In earlier times, the UK would have been relied on to push the American interest in Europe. Now the UK's anti-Europeanism is problematic for the US. My guess is that Biden will try not to take sides, while favouring Europe/EU in any argument because that's where the US interest lies. The one-sided honest broker role is a position the US has taken in multiple international disputes; China in the 1940's, Iran in the 1970's, Israel/Palestine for most of their history. It never works.
    It's an article by the express.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New post
  • Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    BBC rejects race complaint about use of ‘nitty-gritty’

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bbc-rejects-race-complaint-about-use-of-nitty-gritty-zmq96nzvq

    But MOTD aren't allowed to use it.

    TBH, I had no idea that anyone associated that term with racism. Can you be racist for using a term that you had no idea was racist?
    Don't use the word "spook" on American chat-rooms unless wearing flame-retardent clothing.
    Really? I thought it meant spy over there too, as in a CIA spook. Though IIRC the show Spooks was renamed to MI-5 for the american market.
    Another one to be careful of is "thug" - through usage it has become associated, in the US, with er.... pejorative, and inaccurate labelling of young black gentlemen.
    Wasn't that originally a somewhat 'eccentric' quasi religious group in India?
    Although I suppose that's just as bad!
    Malaysia I believe - the Thugees were followers of Kali
    Malaysia? No, it was India,
  • tlg86 said:

    Anyone fancy flying a drone over Heathrow?

    (this is a joke in case any spooks are reading)
    I'm ok with deploying the army to Heathrow (like in 2003) but giving them right to intern and/or shoot anyone who doesn't comply with the laws.
This discussion has been closed.