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Those betting that the Senate will vote to convict Trump should probably take heart from McConnell –

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    HYUFD's gonna be the one in charge of the firing squads, he'll be the Vasily Blokhin of Unionism.
    Union,

    Do you have the link to those four Scottish chaps singing that you posted the other day? Harmonising etc, very impressive.
    There you go

    https://twitter.com/vonstrenginho/status/1349824512544698369?s=20

    I wouldnae be going doon Eyemouth harbour without socks the night...
    Do you know these guys?
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    HYUFD's gonna be the one in charge of the firing squads, he'll be the Vasily Blokhin of Unionism.
    Union,

    Do you have the link to those four Scottish chaps singing that you posted the other day? Harmonising etc, very impressive.
    There you go

    https://twitter.com/vonstrenginho/status/1349824512544698369?s=20

    I wouldnae be going doon Eyemouth harbour without socks the night...
    The men are English, from Brum and Coventry. The music is dubbed on and adapted from a Scottish postman's TikTok adaptation of a New Zealand whaling shanty, itself adapted from an English shanty from the 18th century.

    https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/18/four-lads-in-viral-birmingham-meme-have-been-flooded-with-abuse-13923617/
  • It does beg the question of whether it would have made any difference to people's behaviour even if they had maintained lockdown over Christmas. It so happens that I am simply terrified by me or my loved ones getting this so there was no way I was going to get together with two other households anyway. But in the same way I get the impression that had Johnson said no to Christmas people would have ignored him anyway and just gone ahead with their plans.

    I am just considering that during the last lockdown the roads were completely empty for weeks on end. This time around you really wouldn't know there was a lockdown at all with traffic completely normal. With the exception of shops and schools being closed I am really not seeing much sign of a lockdown.

    I think the big problem is that the message on people still being at risk in spite of the vaccine is not getting through.
    i certainly agree about this lockdown. plenty of traffic. lots of coming and goings up and down my local streets. lots of popping out being done. where are they are all going?
    The messaging of late has been shot to hell. The Christmas relaxation, which the tweet condemns, was belatedly revised to be less relaxed than had been advertised but how many noticed? Social media evidence of gatherings that would have been OK under the promised relaxation but not the delivered version suggests many people missed the change.

    We can go out to exercise, but should stay local, or drive across London to exercise. We can exercise once a day but no, hold on, Boris has noticed dogs want to be walked so that is another exception.

    It is just too complex for most people to keep up with, and we see this every time there is a change because Cabinet Ministers and Number 10 PR teams cannot agree what is what.

    And now the expectation is abroad that vaccination means a return to normal. And more confusion. It is announced that over-70s are now to be jabbed but they are not told more than that so waste everyone's time ringing GPs and others to find out what they need to do next.

    To be fair to the public, round here at least people are following the rules on masks.
    People didn't miss the change they just did what they wanted to do.

    We all have our own limit to the level of restrictions we are prepared to tolerate and when that limit is reached the restrictions are ignored.
    Social media postings suggest ignorance rather than defiance.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Surely this far into the epidemic this should never have happened. Someone in authority needs to explain how this was possible.

    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2021/01/covid-outbreak-at-lincolnshire-car-home-kills-two-thirds-of-residents

    A friends mother died in a nursing home outbreak in Leicester today. One thing I wonder is how this relates to the vaccination programme.
    You mean Are there any stats for how many deaths are caused by the programme? Could the government fairly sit on those numbers with argument not to give anti vaxers ammo?

    Overall it must save lives and the NHS but Does roll out of flu vaccines cause much illness and death each year that’s attributed to having had the jab?
    Your posts are unbearable at times. Just hysterical garbage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    Madrid proved in Catalonia illegal referendums can be ignored and Boris noticed that.

    If Boris tries anything like the Spanish did then he will be out of power within days. Unionist sentiment is just not that strong in England that the people would stand for anything like the actions the Spanish took.

    Face it, your extremist views are in a tiny, tiny minority.
    No he won't. The entire Tory Party is united behind no surrender to the SNP under any circumstances whatsoever.

    The vast majority of Tory voters would love nothing more than Boris to tell Sturgeon to sod off
    You really are deluded. Just look around at your own party members on here. Even the unionists would draw the line at 'any circumstances whatsoever'.
    What 'party members'. There are barely any Tory Party members left on here now, the remainder those who hate Boris like BigG and do not represent the majority.

    The majority of Tory members despise and loathe the SNP almost as much as they love Brexit
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    And in that democracy, we had an election in December 2019 where the party that stood on a platform of no further Scottish referendum won an 80 seat majority.

    Scotland had a chance in 2014 to avoid being bound by that 2019 election result. It chose not to dismantle the UK.

    That is a lot democracy.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    I'm sure they are very grateful not to be shot for expressing political opinions that are perfectly legal.
    I know it's easy, and maybe fun, to laugh at HYUFD. He/she does invite it (and remains unusually polite in response, it is worth noting)

    No one is going to send tanks over the Tweed

    However, on the basic politics, HYUFD is correct. Calling a Scottish indyref2 with the polls as wild as they are now is a risk no UK prime minister will take (and Starmer will be the same). They have all learned from the rueful fate of Dave "this is a good deal" Cameron

    It will be fudged. Devomax/Federalism will be soberly debated, a Solemn Royal Commission will be summoned om the constitutional future of the UK. Scots will be heard! Meanwhile the UK govt will quietly hope that the SNP self-destructs, as the rule-following Sturgeon tries to face down her UDI hardcore.

    No Sindyref2 til 2024, earliest. Ditto Ulster.
    Ulster is different if they want a border poll nothing can stop it from taking place
    The fact they still keep giving Unionists more votes than Nationalists confirms that they don't
    I regularly work in NI and the dynamic is changing rather quickly, and that is all down to Brexit.
    It isn't, the main movement such as there is is to the non sectarian Alliance Party, not Sinn Fein
    But the APNI only have one out of 18 MPs.
    Which is one more than they had in 2017
    SF have 5 more than they had in 1997 (IRA Ceasefire).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    They can't, any referendum result without UK government approval would be illegal.

    Plus only 45% of Scots back independence on the latest poll today anyway including Don't Knows

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    I'm sure they are very grateful not to be shot for expressing political opinions that are perfectly legal.
    I know it's easy, and maybe fun, to laugh at HYUFD. He/she does invite it (and remains unusually polite in response, it is worth noting)

    No one is going to send tanks over the Tweed

    However, on the basic politics, HYUFD is correct. Calling a Scottish indyref2 with the polls as wild as they are now is a risk no UK prime minister will take (and Starmer will be the same). They have all learned from the rueful fate of Dave "this is a good deal" Cameron

    It will be fudged. Devomax/Federalism will be soberly debated, a Solemn Royal Commission will be summoned om the constitutional future of the UK. Scots will be heard! Meanwhile the UK govt will quietly hope that the SNP self-destructs, as the rule-following Sturgeon tries to face down her UDI hardcore.

    No Sindyref2 til 2024, earliest. Ditto Ulster.
    If you mean by Ulster, Northern Ireland, you are wrong on a point of legality. Look it up.
    Jesus. Ulster, Connacht, Leinster, whatever. You know exactly what I mean
    Except that Ulster also includes Counties Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan, which, er, are no longer part of the UK...
    I KNOW
    In fairness, your blundering Ulstering was comfortably eclipsed by your demonstrable lack of understanding about the legality of border polls. Tut.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    Madrid proved in Catalonia illegal referendums can be ignored and Boris noticed that.

    If Boris tries anything like the Spanish did then he will be out of power within days. Unionist sentiment is just not that strong in England that the people would stand for anything like the actions the Spanish took.

    Face it, your extremist views are in a tiny, tiny minority.
    No he won't. The entire Tory Party is united behind no surrender to the SNP under any circumstances whatsoever.

    The vast majority of Tory voters would love nothing more than Boris to tell Sturgeon to sod off
    You really are deluded. Just look around at your own party members on here. Even the unionists would draw the line at 'any circumstances whatsoever'.
    What 'party members'. There are barely any Tory Party members left on here now, the remainder those who hate Boris like BigG and do not represent the majority.

    The majority of Tory members despise and loathe the SNP almost as much as they love Brexit
    In which case they are hypocrites like you. But actually I know plenty of party members and they don't share your lunatic fantasies about crushing the Scots.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We do. We live in a democracy called the UK, comprising Scotland, England, ULSTER, and Wales. All four nations have equal representation in our united and supreme parliament, at Westminster.

    A vote for Scottish independence would deeply impact the entire UK (in my opinion, very negatively: causing a huge recession in rUK and outright Depression and Default in Scotland).

    It is thus a democratic decision to be made at Westminster, as to whether to allow another vote, so soon after the last. You literally cannot maintain a democracy where one part of that nation can vote every other week whether it wants to leave. Or not. I mean: why can't I have a vote whether I have to pay taxes? I want to declare personal UDI on January 30th. It would be useful.

    I am sure Boris will allow a Free Vote in the Commons - and the UK, as a whole nation, including Scots MPS, will democratically decide whether it is right to allow Sindyref2.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    Madrid proved in Catalonia illegal referendums can be ignored and Boris noticed that.

    If Boris tries anything like the Spanish did then he will be out of power within days. Unionist sentiment is just not that strong in England that the people would stand for anything like the actions the Spanish took.

    Face it, your extremist views are in a tiny, tiny minority.
    No he won't. The entire Tory Party is united behind no surrender to the SNP under any circumstances whatsoever.

    The vast majority of Tory voters would love nothing more than Boris to tell Sturgeon to sod off
    You really are deluded. Just look around at your own party members on here. Even the unionists would draw the line at 'any circumstances whatsoever'.
    What 'party members'. There are barely any Tory Party members left on here now, the remainder those who hate Boris like BigG and do not represent the majority.

    The majority of Tory members despise and loathe the SNP almost as much as they love Brexit
    In which case they are hypocrites like you. But actually I know plenty of party members and they don't share your lunatic fantasies about crushing the Scots.
    You know a few libertarians like you who are a minority in the party.

    However despite your best efforts wreck the Union through Brexit we will not let you, we will respect the Brexit vote and have delivered it but we will also under no circustances whatsover allow the Union to break up.

    Nothing else matters more for the next 4 years other than fighting Sturgeon
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Surely this far into the epidemic this should never have happened. Someone in authority needs to explain how this was possible.

    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2021/01/covid-outbreak-at-lincolnshire-car-home-kills-two-thirds-of-residents

    A friends mother died in a nursing home outbreak in Leicester today. One thing I wonder is how this relates to the vaccination programme.
    You mean Are there any stats for how many deaths are caused by the programme? Could the government fairly sit on those numbers with argument not to give anti vaxers ammo?

    Overall it must save lives and the NHS but Does roll out of flu vaccines cause much illness and death each year that’s attributed to having had the jab?
    Your posts are unbearable at times. Just hysterical garbage.
    No. I think you will find I am spot on. Just ahead of the rest of you. Time now to play down the vaccination program and the amount of vaccinations. Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, and old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in deep doo doo. It’s not going to change the situation is it?

    Politically there is a huge problem here in the the Tory party and their supporters putting it out there they are building herd immunity. Coming soon a huge fight between UK government blaming the media for filling people’s heads this is a magic bullet creating herd immunity, the media blaming the government for stoking that.

    With data from Israel questions for the UK over the mistaken Single Covid vaccine dose road they have gone down, effectively turning this vaccination effort into a botch job.

    And these are knowns about the mistakes currently being made, there may even be unknowns.

    The great magic bullet dream is over.

    But not yet in your opinion I suspect, anabob?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Surely this far into the epidemic this should never have happened. Someone in authority needs to explain how this was possible.

    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2021/01/covid-outbreak-at-lincolnshire-car-home-kills-two-thirds-of-residents

    A friends mother died in a nursing home outbreak in Leicester today. One thing I wonder is how this relates to the vaccination programme.
    You mean Are there any stats for how many deaths are caused by the programme? Could the government fairly sit on those numbers with argument not to give anti vaxers ammo?

    Overall it must save lives and the NHS but Does roll out of flu vaccines cause much illness and death each year that’s attributed to having had the jab?
    No, I am interested in knowing if nursing homes have had covid outbreaks more than 2 weeks after starting vaccination. The final paragraph in the Lincs story suggests that outbreaks are still happening.
  • IanB2 said:

    BBC London News - official data suggests 700,000 people may have left London since the virus pandemic begun.

    We did this days ago....where PB leads, others follow.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We do. We live in a democracy called the UK, comprising Scotland, England, ULSTER, and Wales.
    Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan are NOT part of the UK :lol:
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    They can't, any referendum result without UK government approval would be illegal.

    Plus only 45% of Scots back independence on the latest poll today anyway including Don't Knows

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    No it would not be illegal. It just wouldn't be legally binding. There is a very big difference.

    Anyway if you are right why are you so scared of a non binding advisory referendum that you are going to win anyway?
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    No, the only way the SNP get a legal indyref2 is a Starmer premiership reliant on SNP confidence and supply
    Which keeps Labour out of power and kicks the ball far enough down the road for the SNP to implode. It's a win-win for Boris.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    They can't, any referendum result without UK government approval would be illegal.

    Plus only 45% of Scots back independence on the latest poll today anyway including Don't Knows

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    No it would not be illegal. It just wouldn't be legally binding. There is a very big difference.

    Anyway if you are right why are you so scared of a non binding advisory referendum that you are going to win anyway?
    No referendum result is guaranteed, see 2016, 2014 was once in a generation and must remain so
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    I would. Fancy a wager?

    £100 evens that Sturgeon does not call a non-Westminster sanctioned unilateral indyvote within 2 years of winning a majority (or a working majority - inc Greens) in Holyrood this year.

    If she does not get a working maj, the bet is voided.

    Deal?
  • Foxy said:

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Surely this far into the epidemic this should never have happened. Someone in authority needs to explain how this was possible.

    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2021/01/covid-outbreak-at-lincolnshire-car-home-kills-two-thirds-of-residents

    A friends mother died in a nursing home outbreak in Leicester today. One thing I wonder is how this relates to the vaccination programme.
    You mean Are there any stats for how many deaths are caused by the programme? Could the government fairly sit on those numbers with argument not to give anti vaxers ammo?

    Overall it must save lives and the NHS but Does roll out of flu vaccines cause much illness and death each year that’s attributed to having had the jab?
    No, I am interested in knowing if nursing homes have had covid outbreaks more than 2 weeks after starting vaccination. The final paragraph in the Lincs story suggests that outbreaks are still happening.
    As Mark has already pointed out below, all residents and staff tested positive for Covid before the vaccine programme started. This incident had nothing to do with vaccinations.
  • HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    HYUFD's gonna be the one in charge of the firing squads, he'll be the Vasily Blokhin of Unionism.
    Union,

    Do you have the link to those four Scottish chaps singing that you posted the other day? Harmonising etc, very impressive.
    There you go

    https://twitter.com/vonstrenginho/status/1349824512544698369?s=20

    I wouldnae be going doon Eyemouth harbour without socks the night...
    They've taken me moniker in vain!

    Anyway, they are singing a sea CHANTY = chant = song. Whereas a SHANTY is a hovel, but without the amenities.

    Thus "shanty Irish" does NOT mean musical Celtic seafarers, but instead Micks living in shacks.

    OR in Seattle. OR a shack in Seattle.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874
    Goodnight all. Have read enough of the Epping fascist’s increasingly deranged posts for one evening.
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We do, one which has given us a Tory government which will tell Sturgeon to sod off no matter the handwringing from leftwingers like you who are ashamed of their own country
    There it is again, "leftwinger" because I'm arguing in favour of democracy.
    What a wreck of a person you are. What wretched, sorry wreck.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    Madrid proved in Catalonia illegal referendums can be ignored and Boris noticed that.

    If Boris tries anything like the Spanish did then he will be out of power within days. Unionist sentiment is just not that strong in England that the people would stand for anything like the actions the Spanish took.

    Face it, your extremist views are in a tiny, tiny minority.
    No he won't. The entire Tory Party is united behind no surrender to the SNP under any circumstances whatsoever.

    The vast majority of Tory voters would love nothing more than Boris to tell Sturgeon to sod off
    You really are deluded. Just look around at your own party members on here. Even the unionists would draw the line at 'any circumstances whatsoever'.
    What 'party members'. There are barely any Tory Party members left on here now, the remainder those who hate Boris like BigG and do not represent the majority.

    The majority of Tory members despise and loathe the SNP almost as much as they love Brexit
    In which case they are hypocrites like you. But actually I know plenty of party members and they don't share your lunatic fantasies about crushing the Scots.
    You know a few libertarians like you who are a minority in the party.

    However despite your best efforts wreck the Union through Brexit we will not let you, we will respect the Brexit vote and have delivered it but we will also under no circustances whatsover allow the Union to break up.

    Nothing else matters more for the next 4 years other than fighting Sturgeon
    Actually no. None of the party members I know are libertarians. But neither are they fascists like you.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Surely this far into the epidemic this should never have happened. Someone in authority needs to explain how this was possible.

    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2021/01/covid-outbreak-at-lincolnshire-car-home-kills-two-thirds-of-residents

    A friends mother died in a nursing home outbreak in Leicester today. One thing I wonder is how this relates to the vaccination programme.
    You mean Are there any stats for how many deaths are caused by the programme? Could the government fairly sit on those numbers with argument not to give anti vaxers ammo?

    Overall it must save lives and the NHS but Does roll out of flu vaccines cause much illness and death each year that’s attributed to having had the jab?
    Your posts are unbearable at times. Just hysterical garbage.
    No. I think you will find I am spot on. Just ahead of the rest of you. Time now to play down the vaccination program and the amount of vaccinations. Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, and old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in deep doo doo. It’s not going to change the situation is it?

    Politically there is a huge problem here in the the Tory party and their supporters putting it out there they are building herd immunity. Coming soon a huge fight between UK government blaming the media for filling people’s heads this is a magic bullet creating herd immunity, the media blaming the government for stoking that.

    With data from Israel questions for the UK over the mistaken Single Covid vaccine dose road they have gone down, effectively turning this vaccination effort into a botch job.

    And these are knowns about the mistakes currently being made, there may even be unknowns.

    The great magic bullet dream is over.

    But not yet in your opinion I suspect, anabob?
    You are backtracking by conflating a valid question about the second dose timing with the ludicrous conspiracy theories you floated in your OP. It’s all fairly typical stuff from you. As I say, unbearable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We do. We live in a democracy called the UK, comprising Scotland, England, ULSTER, and Wales.
    Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan are NOT part of the UK :lol:
    Fuck it. Let's invade them

    A lot of this hassle would be avoided if the UK just conquered Ireland again. It wouldn't be hard. They rely on us for their entire air force.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited January 2021
  • HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    HYUFD's gonna be the one in charge of the firing squads, he'll be the Vasily Blokhin of Unionism.
    Union,

    Do you have the link to those four Scottish chaps singing that you posted the other day? Harmonising etc, very impressive.
    There you go

    https://twitter.com/vonstrenginho/status/1349824512544698369?s=20

    I wouldnae be going doon Eyemouth harbour without socks the night...
    Do you know these guys?
    No, it was just something that popped up in my twitter as part of the sea shanty craze sweeping the nation. There was quite a nice piece on the whole thing on C4 News on Friday evening with Jon Snow & the reporter with his cello joining in on an online shanty.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    I would. Fancy a wager?

    £100 evens that Sturgeon does not call a non-Westminster sanctioned unilateral indyvote within 2 years of winning a majority (or a working majority - inc Greens) in Holyrood this year.

    If she does not get a working maj, the bet is voided.

    Deal?
    Yep deal. Void if there is a sanctioned vote?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We do, one which has given us a Tory government which will tell Sturgeon to sod off no matter the handwringing from leftwingers like you who are ashamed of their own country
    There it is again, "leftwinger" because I'm arguing in favour of democracy.
    What a wreck of a person you are. What wretched, sorry wreck.
    No you want to destroy your own sovereign country, a more than 300 year old Union, merely to punish us for leaving the EU.

    It is a common, deranged, desire now found on the left and amongst many here made even more deranged by the fact the England and Wales remaining would be even more anti EU and even more Tory.

    Scots made their choice in 2014 and chose to stay in the UK
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We do, one which has given us a Tory government which will tell Sturgeon to sod off no matter the handwringing from leftwingers like you who are ashamed of their own country
    There it is again, "leftwinger" because I'm arguing in favour of democracy.
    What a wreck of a person you are. What wretched, sorry wreck.
    "Handwringing Leftwingers" actually got more votes at GE 2019 than the Tories, BXP, UKIP and the NI Unionists combined.

    Strange, but true!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    I would. Fancy a wager?

    £100 evens that Sturgeon does not call a non-Westminster sanctioned unilateral indyvote within 2 years of winning a majority (or a working majority - inc Greens) in Holyrood this year.

    If she does not get a working maj, the bet is voided.

    Deal?
    Yep deal. Void if there is a sanctioned vote?
    Deal! This is an interesting bet. We need a referee, to adjudicate disputes. I am happy to hear you suggestions.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We do, one which has given us a Tory government which will tell Sturgeon to sod off no matter the handwringing from leftwingers like you who are ashamed of their own country
    There it is again, "leftwinger" because I'm arguing in favour of democracy.
    What a wreck of a person you are. What wretched, sorry wreck.
    No you want to destroy your own country, a more than 300 year old Union, merely to punish us for leaving the EU.

    It is a common, deranged, desire now found on the left and amongst many here

    Scots made their choice in 2014 and chose to stay in the UK
    "deranged"
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    I would. Fancy a wager?

    £100 evens that Sturgeon does not call a non-Westminster sanctioned unilateral indyvote within 2 years of winning a majority (or a working majority - inc Greens) in Holyrood this year.

    If she does not get a working maj, the bet is voided.

    Deal?
    Yep deal. Void if there is a sanctioned vote?
    Deal! This is an interesting bet. We need a referee, to adjudicate disputes. I am happy to hear you suggestions.
    I don't actually think there would be any dispute. We are both reasonable and Richard N knows I am good for my word as I know you are.

    But if needed we could have Smithson Junior as he knows us both.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We do. We live in a democracy called the UK, comprising Scotland, England, ULSTER, and Wales.
    Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan are NOT part of the UK :lol:
    Fuck it. Let's invade them

    A lot of this hassle would be avoided if the UK just conquered Ireland again. It wouldn't be hard. They rely on us for their entire air force.
    Now now, that's silly. It's holding the place that would be a problem.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    They can't, any referendum result without UK government approval would be illegal.

    Plus only 45% of Scots back independence on the latest poll today anyway including Don't Knows

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    No it would not be illegal. It just wouldn't be legally binding. There is a very big difference.

    Anyway if you are right why are you so scared of a non binding advisory referendum that you are going to win anyway?
    No referendum result is guaranteed, see 2016, 2014 was once in a generation and must remain so
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We do, one which has given us a Tory government which will tell Sturgeon to sod off no matter the handwringing from leftwingers like you who are ashamed of their own country
    There it is again, "leftwinger" because I'm arguing in favour of democracy.
    What a wreck of a person you are. What wretched, sorry wreck.
    "Handwringing Leftwingers" actually got more votes at GE 2019 than the Tories, BXP, UKIP and the NI Unionists combined.

    Strange, but true!
    The LDs are not leftwing, they were in government with the Tories from 2010 to 2015.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Foxy said:

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Surely this far into the epidemic this should never have happened. Someone in authority needs to explain how this was possible.

    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2021/01/covid-outbreak-at-lincolnshire-car-home-kills-two-thirds-of-residents

    A friends mother died in a nursing home outbreak in Leicester today. One thing I wonder is how this relates to the vaccination programme.
    You mean Are there any stats for how many deaths are caused by the programme? Could the government fairly sit on those numbers with argument not to give anti vaxers ammo?

    Overall it must save lives and the NHS but Does roll out of flu vaccines cause much illness and death each year that’s attributed to having had the jab?
    No, I am interested in knowing if nursing homes have had covid outbreaks more than 2 weeks after starting vaccination. The final paragraph in the Lincs story suggests that outbreaks are still happening.
    As Mark has already pointed out below, all residents and staff tested positive for Covid before the vaccine programme started. This incident had nothing to do with vaccinations.
    I agree that particular outbreak did not relate to vaccination, as all infections preceeded the programme. The final paragraph does refer to further outbreaks though. Studying the temporal relation to the vaccination programme is the sort of data that we need to determine the programmes efficacy.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We do, one which has given us a Tory government which will tell Sturgeon to sod off no matter the handwringing from leftwingers like you who are ashamed of their own country
    There it is again, "leftwinger" because I'm arguing in favour of democracy.
    What a wreck of a person you are. What wretched, sorry wreck.
    No you want to destroy your own sovereign country, a more than 300 year old Union, merely to punish us for leaving the EU.

    It is a common, deranged, desire now found on the left and amongst many here made even more deranged by the fact the England and Wales remaining would be even more anti EU and even more Tory.

    Scots made their choice in 2014 and chose to stay in the UK
    But that was before Brexit. (You voted to REMAIN in 2016, remember?)
  • IF we are talking true beauty, elegance and above all class, then I submit that JILL BIDEN runs rings around Melania Trump.

    Plus Dr. Jill is MUCH more in the mold of previous FLOTUS than her immediate predecessor.

    Melania Trump entered the White House with loads of obvious potential. Of which zero was realized. Mostly due to her toxic hubby.

    BUT also due to fact that Mrs. Trumpsky has all the personality, warmth and appeal of a stump.

    Personal taste may differ re: her charms. (Which I admit are lost on me.)

    But hard to dispute the contention that, at least in modern time, no FLOTUS has been LESS helpful in helping her husband politically, either as a supportive helpmate, public surrogate OR personal advisor.
  • It does beg the question of whether it would have made any difference to people's behaviour even if they had maintained lockdown over Christmas. It so happens that I am simply terrified by me or my loved ones getting this so there was no way I was going to get together with two other households anyway. But in the same way I get the impression that had Johnson said no to Christmas people would have ignored him anyway and just gone ahead with their plans.

    I am just considering that during the last lockdown the roads were completely empty for weeks on end. This time around you really wouldn't know there was a lockdown at all with traffic completely normal. With the exception of shops and schools being closed I am really not seeing much sign of a lockdown.

    I think the big problem is that the message on people still being at risk in spite of the vaccine is not getting through.
    i certainly agree about this lockdown. plenty of traffic. lots of coming and goings up and down my local streets. lots of popping out being done. where are they are all going?
    The messaging of late has been shot to hell. The Christmas relaxation, which the tweet condemns, was belatedly revised to be less relaxed than had been advertised but how many noticed? Social media evidence of gatherings that would have been OK under the promised relaxation but not the delivered version suggests many people missed the change.

    We can go out to exercise, but should stay local, or drive across London to exercise. We can exercise once a day but no, hold on, Boris has noticed dogs want to be walked so that is another exception.

    It is just too complex for most people to keep up with, and we see this every time there is a change because Cabinet Ministers and Number 10 PR teams cannot agree what is what.

    And now the expectation is abroad that vaccination means a return to normal. And more confusion. It is announced that over-70s are now to be jabbed but they are not told more than that so waste everyone's time ringing GPs and others to find out what they need to do next.

    To be fair to the public, round here at least people are following the rules on masks.
    People didn't miss the change they just did what they wanted to do.

    We all have our own limit to the level of restrictions we are prepared to tolerate and when that limit is reached the restrictions are ignored.
    Social media postings suggest ignorance rather than defiance.
    Ignorance is part of doing what you want to do.

    Its not difficult to find out the guidelines or regulations but for many its "Who cares? I can't be bothered. I've had enough of these restrictions. Lets do what we want. Nobody's going to get hurt."

    Its a mindset we all get to at some point or other.
  • gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Surely this far into the epidemic this should never have happened. Someone in authority needs to explain how this was possible.

    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2021/01/covid-outbreak-at-lincolnshire-car-home-kills-two-thirds-of-residents

    A friends mother died in a nursing home outbreak in Leicester today. One thing I wonder is how this relates to the vaccination programme.
    You mean Are there any stats for how many deaths are caused by the programme? Could the government fairly sit on those numbers with argument not to give anti vaxers ammo?

    Overall it must save lives and the NHS but Does roll out of flu vaccines cause much illness and death each year that’s attributed to having had the jab?
    Your posts are unbearable at times. Just hysterical garbage.
    No. I think you will find I am spot on. Just ahead of the rest of you. Time now to play down the vaccination program and the amount of vaccinations. Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, and old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in deep doo doo. It’s not going to change the situation is it?

    Politically there is a huge problem here in the the Tory party and their supporters putting it out there they are building herd immunity. Coming soon a huge fight between UK government blaming the media for filling people’s heads this is a magic bullet creating herd immunity, the media blaming the government for stoking that.

    With data from Israel questions for the UK over the mistaken Single Covid vaccine dose road they have gone down, effectively turning this vaccination effort into a botch job.

    And these are knowns about the mistakes currently being made, there may even be unknowns.

    The great magic bullet dream is over.

    But not yet in your opinion I suspect, anabob?
    There's just one problem with this argument: you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. There's plenty still unknown about how the vaccination programme will affect the spread of the virus, but you shouldn't spread lies about it.

    --AS
  • Scott_xP said:
    Bitterness isn't a pleasant colour. Sore loser.

    Apply to you or May. Your choice.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    edited January 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We do, one which has given us a Tory government which will tell Sturgeon to sod off no matter the handwringing from leftwingers like you who are ashamed of their own country
    There it is again, "leftwinger" because I'm arguing in favour of democracy.
    What a wreck of a person you are. What wretched, sorry wreck.
    "Handwringing Leftwingers" actually got more votes at GE 2019 than the Tories, BXP, UKIP and the NI Unionists combined.

    Strange, but true!
    The LDs are not leftwing, they were in government with the Tories from 2010 to 2015.
    "They were".

    According to Wiki, they are listed as having a political position "centre to "centre-left".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libdem

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    I would. Fancy a wager?

    £100 evens that Sturgeon does not call a non-Westminster sanctioned unilateral indyvote within 2 years of winning a majority (or a working majority - inc Greens) in Holyrood this year.

    If she does not get a working maj, the bet is voided.

    Deal?
    Yep deal. Void if there is a sanctioned vote?
    Deal! This is an interesting bet. We need a referee, to adjudicate disputes. I am happy to hear you suggestions.
    I don't actually think there would be any dispute. We are both reasonable and Richard N knows I am good for my word as I know you are.

    But if needed we could have Smithson Junior as he knows us both.
    Smithson Jr is a good choice.

    We have a wager of £100.

    For precision, this is my perception of our bet.

    If, within two years of Sturgeon winning a majority, or working majority, at Holyrood in 2021, she has not called an independence referendum absent the express permission of Westminster, then I win. By "called", I mean actually held. ie Something called, enacted, and voted on, in Scotland.

    If Westminster actually gives permission, the bet is void. If she does not win a majority or working majority, the bet is also void.

    It seems to me the only grey areas are whether Sturgeon falls as SNP leader in the interim. How do you feel about that? And I suppose some vagueness attaches as to whether and when there will be a Scots Holyrood vote in 2021, given Covid.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    HYUFD's gonna be the one in charge of the firing squads, he'll be the Vasily Blokhin of Unionism.
    Union,

    Do you have the link to those four Scottish chaps singing that you posted the other day? Harmonising etc, very impressive.
    There you go

    https://twitter.com/vonstrenginho/status/1349824512544698369?s=20

    I wouldnae be going doon Eyemouth harbour without socks the night...
    They've taken me moniker in vain!

    Anyway, they are singing a sea CHANTY = chant = song. Whereas a SHANTY is a hovel, but without the amenities.

    Thus "shanty Irish" does NOT mean musical Celtic seafarers, but instead Micks living in shacks.

    OR in Seattle. OR a shack in Seattle.
    A chanty has a somewhat different meaning in Glasgow :)




  • Brittas Empire cast to reunite for online event

    https://www.comedy.co.uk/online/news/6170/brittas-empire-reunion/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Nationalists should count themselves lucky that the British government no longer shoots Nationalists?

    Wow. Just wow. Time to go to bed for sure.
  • Surely Pam would have already dispatched a gunboat?

    In a similar situation just across the Strait of Gibraltar, Theodore Roosevelt once famously demanded, "Perdicaris alive or Raisuli dead!"

    Surely now, Boris Johnson should be giving Spain a similar ultimatum: "Nando lives, and Franco is still dead!"
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    I would. Fancy a wager?

    £100 evens that Sturgeon does not call a non-Westminster sanctioned unilateral indyvote within 2 years of winning a majority (or a working majority - inc Greens) in Holyrood this year.

    If she does not get a working maj, the bet is voided.

    Deal?
    Yep deal. Void if there is a sanctioned vote?
    Deal! This is an interesting bet. We need a referee, to adjudicate disputes. I am happy to hear you suggestions.
    I don't actually think there would be any dispute. We are both reasonable and Richard N knows I am good for my word as I know you are.

    But if needed we could have Smithson Junior as he knows us both.
    Interesting bet.

    Also interesting that you and Richard both know a custom sex toy flint knapper (have I got that right)? Seems like an interesting backstory there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    Brittas Empire cast to reunite for online event

    https://www.comedy.co.uk/online/news/6170/brittas-empire-reunion/

    The levels of opportunism of some people......
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    I would. Fancy a wager?

    £100 evens that Sturgeon does not call a non-Westminster sanctioned unilateral indyvote within 2 years of winning a majority (or a working majority - inc Greens) in Holyrood this year.

    If she does not get a working maj, the bet is voided.

    Deal?
    Yep deal. Void if there is a sanctioned vote?
    Deal! This is an interesting bet. We need a referee, to adjudicate disputes. I am happy to hear you suggestions.
    I don't actually think there would be any dispute. We are both reasonable and Richard N knows I am good for my word as I know you are.

    But if needed we could have Smithson Junior as he knows us both.
    You're confident @Leon will not have morphed within two years? :wink:
  • Surely Pam would have already dispatched a gunboat?

    In a similar situation just across the Strait of Gibraltar, Theodore Roosevelt once famously demanded, "Perdicaris alive or Raisuli dead!"

    Surely now, Boris Johnson should be giving Spain a similar ultimatum: "Nando lives, and Franco is still dead!"
    Franco rose to power in the Spanish Civil War. Wasn't that triggered by Catalonian home rule? Where does Sturgeon stand on Nando's?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:
    Bitterness isn't a pleasant colour. Sore loser.

    Apply to you or May. Your choice.
    "Sore loser" is a bit infantile isn’t it? This is not a game; democracy is a way of deciding what one entity, the country, does, not of labelling half its inhabitants as "losers."

    I love the smell of shellfish rotting in lorries in the morning. It smells like victory.
  • It does beg the question of whether it would have made any difference to people's behaviour even if they had maintained lockdown over Christmas. It so happens that I am simply terrified by me or my loved ones getting this so there was no way I was going to get together with two other households anyway. But in the same way I get the impression that had Johnson said no to Christmas people would have ignored him anyway and just gone ahead with their plans.

    I am just considering that during the last lockdown the roads were completely empty for weeks on end. This time around you really wouldn't know there was a lockdown at all with traffic completely normal. With the exception of shops and schools being closed I am really not seeing much sign of a lockdown.

    I think the big problem is that the message on people still being at risk in spite of the vaccine is not getting through.
    i certainly agree about this lockdown. plenty of traffic. lots of coming and goings up and down my local streets. lots of popping out being done. where are they are all going?
    The messaging of late has been shot to hell. The Christmas relaxation, which the tweet condemns, was belatedly revised to be less relaxed than had been advertised but how many noticed? Social media evidence of gatherings that would have been OK under the promised relaxation but not the delivered version suggests many people missed the change.

    We can go out to exercise, but should stay local, or drive across London to exercise. We can exercise once a day but no, hold on, Boris has noticed dogs want to be walked so that is another exception.

    It is just too complex for most people to keep up with, and we see this every time there is a change because Cabinet Ministers and Number 10 PR teams cannot agree what is what.

    And now the expectation is abroad that vaccination means a return to normal. And more confusion. It is announced that over-70s are now to be jabbed but they are not told more than that so waste everyone's time ringing GPs and others to find out what they need to do next.

    To be fair to the public, round here at least people are following the rules on masks.
    People didn't miss the change they just did what they wanted to do.

    We all have our own limit to the level of restrictions we are prepared to tolerate and when that limit is reached the restrictions are ignored.
    Social media postings suggest ignorance rather than defiance.
    Ignorance is part of doing what you want to do.

    Its not difficult to find out the guidelines or regulations but for many its "Who cares? I can't be bothered. I've had enough of these restrictions. Lets do what we want. Nobody's going to get hurt."

    Its a mindset we all get to at some point or other.
    People did find out and planned accordingly but were caught out by late changes.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited January 2021

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    I would. Fancy a wager?

    £100 evens that Sturgeon does not call a non-Westminster sanctioned unilateral indyvote within 2 years of winning a majority (or a working majority - inc Greens) in Holyrood this year.

    If she does not get a working maj, the bet is voided.

    Deal?
    Yep deal. Void if there is a sanctioned vote?
    Deal! This is an interesting bet. We need a referee, to adjudicate disputes. I am happy to hear you suggestions.
    I don't actually think there would be any dispute. We are both reasonable and Richard N knows I am good for my word as I know you are.

    But if needed we could have Smithson Junior as he knows us both.
    Interesting bet.

    Also interesting that you and Richard both know a custom sex toy flint knapper (have I got that right)? Seems like an interesting backstory there.
    I think @Leon wins this bet if it's not voided.

    Richard's (and Nicola's) problem is that an unsanctioned referendum just gets boycotted by unionists - a boycott Westminster will encourage.

    So Nicola knows that she'd need to win >50% of the whole electorate to gain moral legitimacy for a Yes vote. A tall order; I doubt she'd risk it.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    I would. Fancy a wager?

    £100 evens that Sturgeon does not call a non-Westminster sanctioned unilateral indyvote within 2 years of winning a majority (or a working majority - inc Greens) in Holyrood this year.

    If she does not get a working maj, the bet is voided.

    Deal?
    Yep deal. Void if there is a sanctioned vote?
    Deal! This is an interesting bet. We need a referee, to adjudicate disputes. I am happy to hear you suggestions.
    I don't actually think there would be any dispute. We are both reasonable and Richard N knows I am good for my word as I know you are.

    But if needed we could have Smithson Junior as he knows us both.
    Smithson Jr is a good choice.

    We have a wager of £100.

    For precision, this is my perception of our bet.

    If, within two years of Sturgeon winning a majority, or working majority, at Holyrood in 2021, she has not called an independence referendum absent the express permission of Westminster, then I win. By "called", I mean actually held. ie Something called, enacted, and voted on, in Scotland.

    If Westminster actually gives permission, the bet is void. If she does not win a majority or working majority, the bet is also void.

    It seems to me the only grey areas are whether Sturgeon falls as SNP leader in the interim. How do you feel about that? And I suppose some vagueness attaches as to whether and when there will be a Scots Holyrood vote in 2021, given Covid.

    I think those sorts of events/grey areas void the bet. We are both clear on what we are betting about in line with what you have said.
  • Mary_BattyMary_Batty Posts: 630
    edited January 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We do. We live in a democracy called the UK, comprising Scotland, England, ULSTER, and Wales. All four nations have equal representation in our united and supreme parliament, at Westminster.

    A vote for Scottish independence would deeply impact the entire UK (in my opinion, very negatively: causing a huge recession in rUK and outright Depression and Default in Scotland).

    It is thus a democratic decision to be made at Westminster, as to whether to allow another vote, so soon after the last. You literally cannot maintain a democracy where one part of that nation can vote every other week whether it wants to leave. Or not. I mean: why can't I have a vote whether I have to pay taxes? I want to declare personal UDI on January 30th. It would be useful.

    I am sure Boris will allow a Free Vote in the Commons - and the UK, as a whole nation, including Scots MPS, will democratically decide whether it is right to allow Sindyref2.
    If you can maintain a sovereign, independent state in a way that isn't parasitic on another state's infrastructure, and doesn't create issues that spill over the border into your neighbouring state(s) then yes.
    Of course, you can't. Not just because no one person can do that alone, or even come close, but because you seem to be a particularly... limited... individual.
    But when a group of people could (and yes, a country of several million people certainly can) then it is wholly unethical for someone outside of that group to stand in their way. In fact, I will go as far as to say it is evil.

    Democracy is vital for peaceful human coexistence, and democracy rests on the principle of consent. Governing is a kind of use of force, a monopoly on violence. If a group of people seem to have withdrawn their consent informally it is of vital and urgent importance to test that formally.
    A state which hold captive a group of people in this way is no longer legitimate in any sense. Remember, legitimacy comes from consent.
    I don't like to use the word "imperialism" in this context because the history is really quite different, but that's the sort of area we're reaching. If one place rules second without the ongoing consent of that second place how different is it in practice?
    Of course it's not up to us whether Scotland leaves. Well, we can speak up and say what we think, but of course we should have no vote. In the same way we should not have had any say in whether India become independent. In the same way Beijing shouldn't decide whether Hong Kong should be independent. And yes, of course it will affect us. But so what? That doesn't give us a right to dominion over them.
    Hyufd claimed I was ashamed of my country earlier. No, I was proud that the UK made the sensible, rational, adult choice to allow a referendum in 2014. Now I'm starting to become afraid of what we're becoming.
    I'm becoming afraid. Of my own country.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    I would. Fancy a wager?

    £100 evens that Sturgeon does not call a non-Westminster sanctioned unilateral indyvote within 2 years of winning a majority (or a working majority - inc Greens) in Holyrood this year.

    If she does not get a working maj, the bet is voided.

    Deal?
    Yep deal. Void if there is a sanctioned vote?
    Deal! This is an interesting bet. We need a referee, to adjudicate disputes. I am happy to hear you suggestions.
    I don't actually think there would be any dispute. We are both reasonable and Richard N knows I am good for my word as I know you are.

    But if needed we could have Smithson Junior as he knows us both.
    Smithson Jr is a good choice.

    We have a wager of £100.

    For precision, this is my perception of our bet.

    If, within two years of Sturgeon winning a majority, or working majority, at Holyrood in 2021, she has not called an independence referendum absent the express permission of Westminster, then I win. By "called", I mean actually held. ie Something called, enacted, and voted on, in Scotland.

    If Westminster actually gives permission, the bet is void. If she does not win a majority or working majority, the bet is also void.

    It seems to me the only grey areas are whether Sturgeon falls as SNP leader in the interim. How do you feel about that? And I suppose some vagueness attaches as to whether and when there will be a Scots Holyrood vote in 2021, given Covid.

    I think those sorts of events/grey areas void the bet. We are both clear on what we are betting about in line with what you have said.
    Agreed. Deal
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Shit. First black and white confirmation that is happening.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Leon said:

    Part of me wants to the laugh at the DUP but most of me wants to weep for the break up of the country.

    Senior DUP MP Gavin Robinson warns unionism to prepare for border poll

    https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/01/18/news/gavin-robinson-echoes-dup-namesake-s-call-for-unionism-to-get-ready-for-a-border-poll-2189559/

    The DUP have belatedly realised why backing Brexit was the greatest strategic blunder since Emperor Palpatine allowed the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the Second Death Star.

    In about 2 years the Norns will realise they have won the lottery of life. They have automatic citizenship of the EU, and ALSO of the UK. Their companies can freely trade in the EU Single Market AND the UK Single Market. Investment is going to flood into Belfast. It will be like a Freeport.

    Why on earth would they give up this uniquely beneficial situation, so as to reunify with the South, which would risk renewed violence and sever them from the benefits of the UK? What's the point? Those who feel strongly "Irish" can have an Irish passport and the rest. Those who feel British can have an Irish and a UK passport. Such great good luck.

    I do not begrudge the Northern Irish this prize. They've had a hard time for decades. But it is a huge, ironic prize.



    BTW if there are food shortages in Northern Ireland why aren’t they being supplied from the south?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,889

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gaussian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Part of me wants to the laugh at the DUP but most of me wants to weep for the break up of the country.

    Senior DUP MP Gavin Robinson warns unionism to prepare for border poll

    https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/01/18/news/gavin-robinson-echoes-dup-namesake-s-call-for-unionism-to-get-ready-for-a-border-poll-2189559/

    The DUP have belatedly realised why backing Brexit was the greatest strategic blunder since Emperor Palpatine allowed the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the Second Death Star.

    In about 2 years the Norns will realise they have won the lottery of life. They have automatic citizenship of the EU, and ALSO of the UK. Their companies can freely trade in the EU Single Market AND the UK Single Market. Investment is going to flood into Belfast. It will be like a Freeport.

    Why on earth would they give up this uniquely beneficial situation, so as to reunify with the South, which would risk renewed violence and sever them from the benefits of the UK? What's the point? Those who feel strongly "Irish" can have an Irish passport and the rest. Those who feel British can have an Irish and a UK passport. Such great good luck.

    I do not begrudge the Northern Irish this prize. They've had a hard time for decades. But it is a huge, ironic prize.
    I suggest you do a bit more research, the Northern Irish are facing huge hurdles to get easy access to the UK single market, and vice versa.

    As one UK trader put it, it is easier for him to send a container to China than it is to send some stuff to NI.

    This is one of the reasons the DUP are prepping for a border poll.
    The DUPs best chance is an early border poll. It is just going to get worse for them...
    Well, Mr Johnson isn't going to allow one is he??
    NI has cost so much blood, money and attention that you have to wonder whether betraying the DUP and provoking a border poll isn't a deliberate strategy to try to get rid of it.
    Who cares about the DUP?

    The only voters Mr Johnson cares about (apart from the future historians assessing his neo-Churchillian image for posterity, I assume) are the backbenchers, and, slightly at a remove, the likes of HYUFD. Is HYUFD in favour of Irish reunification? (I don't know, actually.)
    Of course not, I am a Conservative and Unionist and a diehard one at that.

    No you are not! You voted to REMAIN!
    Of course he did. Remain was the policy of the Conservative Party at the time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    I don’t know how he’ll do, but so far it’s been a very good start.
  • It does beg the question of whether it would have made any difference to people's behaviour even if they had maintained lockdown over Christmas. It so happens that I am simply terrified by me or my loved ones getting this so there was no way I was going to get together with two other households anyway. But in the same way I get the impression that had Johnson said no to Christmas people would have ignored him anyway and just gone ahead with their plans.

    I am just considering that during the last lockdown the roads were completely empty for weeks on end. This time around you really wouldn't know there was a lockdown at all with traffic completely normal. With the exception of shops and schools being closed I am really not seeing much sign of a lockdown.

    I think the big problem is that the message on people still being at risk in spite of the vaccine is not getting through.
    i certainly agree about this lockdown. plenty of traffic. lots of coming and goings up and down my local streets. lots of popping out being done. where are they are all going?
    The messaging of late has been shot to hell. The Christmas relaxation, which the tweet condemns, was belatedly revised to be less relaxed than had been advertised but how many noticed? Social media evidence of gatherings that would have been OK under the promised relaxation but not the delivered version suggests many people missed the change.

    We can go out to exercise, but should stay local, or drive across London to exercise. We can exercise once a day but no, hold on, Boris has noticed dogs want to be walked so that is another exception.

    It is just too complex for most people to keep up with, and we see this every time there is a change because Cabinet Ministers and Number 10 PR teams cannot agree what is what.

    And now the expectation is abroad that vaccination means a return to normal. And more confusion. It is announced that over-70s are now to be jabbed but they are not told more than that so waste everyone's time ringing GPs and others to find out what they need to do next.

    To be fair to the public, round here at least people are following the rules on masks.
    People didn't miss the change they just did what they wanted to do.

    We all have our own limit to the level of restrictions we are prepared to tolerate and when that limit is reached the restrictions are ignored.
    Social media postings suggest ignorance rather than defiance.
    Ignorance is part of doing what you want to do.

    Its not difficult to find out the guidelines or regulations but for many its "Who cares? I can't be bothered. I've had enough of these restrictions. Lets do what we want. Nobody's going to get hurt."

    Its a mindset we all get to at some point or other.
    People did find out and planned accordingly but were caught out by late changes.
    And then chose to do what they wanted.

    FFS what's all this 'planning' which was so desperately needed ?

    A Christmas dinner, and seeing someone on another day over Christmas is even less so, is not the equivalent of a round the world trip.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    HYUFD said:
    Squirt.

    Euan Blair may be worth £70m+ but no-one can take away from me the time I trolled him with my Tory stand at university with a massive A1 picture of his Dad above it with hand outstretched and a sign saying "Go on my son, join the Tories!"

    I will never forget the way he tried to pretend he hadn't seen it as he tried to press flesh with the Labour stand.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited January 2021

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    I would. Fancy a wager?

    £100 evens that Sturgeon does not call a non-Westminster sanctioned unilateral indyvote within 2 years of winning a majority (or a working majority - inc Greens) in Holyrood this year.

    If she does not get a working maj, the bet is voided.

    Deal?
    Yep deal. Void if there is a sanctioned vote?
    Deal! This is an interesting bet. We need a referee, to adjudicate disputes. I am happy to hear you suggestions.
    I don't actually think there would be any dispute. We are both reasonable and Richard N knows I am good for my word as I know you are.

    But if needed we could have Smithson Junior as he knows us both.
    Interesting bet.

    Also interesting that you and Richard both know a custom sex toy flint knapper (have I got that right)? Seems like an interesting backstory there.
    I think @Leon wins this bet if it's not voided.

    Richard's (and Nicola's) problem is that an unsanctioned referendum just gets boycotted by unionists - a boycott Westminster will encourage.

    So Nicola knows that she'd need to win >50% of the whole electorate to gain moral legitimacy for a Yes vote. A tall order; I doubt she'd risk it.
    The poll from which HYUFD is so keen to selectively quote has 57% wanting a referendum within the the next 5 year term of parliament, 26% within 10 years or longer and 17% never; that suggests that more than just Yes voters would participate in a non WM sanctioned referendum, particularly if even after the SNP winning a majority BJ was still going to die in a ditch blocking one.
  • Nigelb said:

    I don’t know how he’ll do, but so far it’s been a very good start.

    He'll have the advantage of a lot of initial goodwill.

    Quiet competence might go down very well.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Leon said:

    Part of me wants to the laugh at the DUP but most of me wants to weep for the break up of the country.

    Senior DUP MP Gavin Robinson warns unionism to prepare for border poll

    https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/01/18/news/gavin-robinson-echoes-dup-namesake-s-call-for-unionism-to-get-ready-for-a-border-poll-2189559/

    The DUP have belatedly realised why backing Brexit was the greatest strategic blunder since Emperor Palpatine allowed the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the Second Death Star.

    In about 2 years the Norns will realise they have won the lottery of life. They have automatic citizenship of the EU, and ALSO of the UK. Their companies can freely trade in the EU Single Market AND the UK Single Market. Investment is going to flood into Belfast. It will be like a Freeport.

    Why on earth would they give up this uniquely beneficial situation, so as to reunify with the South, which would risk renewed violence and sever them from the benefits of the UK? What's the point? Those who feel strongly "Irish" can have an Irish passport and the rest. Those who feel British can have an Irish and a UK passport. Such great good luck.

    I do not begrudge the Northern Irish this prize. They've had a hard time for decades. But it is a huge, ironic prize.



    I suggest you do a bit more research, the Northern Irish are facing huge hurdles to get easy access to the UK single market, and vice versa.

    As one UK trader put it, it is easier for him to send a container to China than it is to send some stuff to NI.

    This is one of the reasons the DUP are prepping for a border poll.

    A potential 25% tariff to be imposed on steel imports to Northern Ireland not from Great Britain will ruin the industry, it has been warned.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/25-tariff-on-steel-imports-to-northern-ireland-ruinous-39974482.html

    The Norn Irish are about get the worst of all worlds.
    If it's easier for him to send a container to China under WTO rules than it is to NI then the trade deal and protocol is worthless, which doesn't stack up:

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950601/Northern_Ireland_Protocol_-_Command_Paper.pdf

    There are no export declarations required for Northern Ireland traders moving their goods from Northern Ireland to Great Britain. They only apply if they've originated from the EU market, in other words routed via Ireland and NI to try and backdoor into GB.

    The Irish sea border is heavily bias on the GB to NI crossing (one-way) because it's in that direction that they're at risk of moving into the EU single market.
    The story I read was that his stuff is getting held up, and that he's been waiting for over a week for the HMRC get back to him on what the hold up is and which forms/codes he needs to use.
    That’s just an HMRC is crap story - nothing new under the sun
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    Madrid proved in Catalonia illegal referendums can be ignored and Boris noticed that.

    Madrid proved it is a thuggish country that has barely moved on from franco in terms of democracy and that the eu would do nothing to curb it beating its own citizens for daring to think the wrong way. Your view of what britain should be might be that but I doubt its most peoples
  • StarryStarry Posts: 110
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    They can't, any referendum result without UK government approval would be illegal.

    Plus only 45% of Scots back independence on the latest poll today anyway including Don't Knows

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    No it would not be illegal. It just wouldn't be legally binding. There is a very big difference.

    Anyway if you are right why are you so scared of a non binding advisory referendum that you are going to win anyway?
    No referendum result is guaranteed, see 2016, 2014 was once in a generation and must remain so
    You're forgetting again - once in a generation...unless there is a material change in circumstance such as Scotland leaving the EU without her consent.

    Remember the election campaign, vote No to remain in the EU. I did. A material change occurred. The more authoritarian the UK government becomes (and I don't think they will be), the more the desire for independence grows.

    Without a very serious further devolution, the Union stands no chance. It pains me but I'll remain British and Scottish, just not part of the UK.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Floater said:
    Hopefully we will soon discover which strain was involved. (Although the UK may need to do the donkey work on the sequencing - we could be waiting a while otherwise...)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    edited January 2021
    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    They can't, any referendum result without UK government approval would be illegal.

    Plus only 45% of Scots back independence on the latest poll today anyway including Don't Knows

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    No it would not be illegal. It just wouldn't be legally binding. There is a very big difference.

    Anyway if you are right why are you so scared of a non binding advisory referendum that you are going to win anyway?
    No referendum result is guaranteed, see 2016, 2014 was once in a generation and must remain so
    You're forgetting again - once in a generation...unless there is a material change in circumstance such as Scotland leaving the EU without her consent.

    Remember the election campaign, vote No to remain in the EU. I did. A material change occurred. The more authoritarian the UK government becomes (and I don't think they will be), the more the desire for independence grows.

    Without a very serious further devolution, the Union stands no chance. It pains me but I'll remain British and Scottish, just not part of the UK.
    The latest indyref poll today has Yes on just 45% including undecideds, ie no change from 2014.
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    Based on the fact 62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016 if Brexit was a material change in circumstances then Yes should be on 60%+.

    Plainly there has not been and so Boris will correctly refuse a legal indyref for the rest of this Parliament.

    I have no problem with devomax for Holyrood but there is no case for indyref2 now.
  • It does beg the question of whether it would have made any difference to people's behaviour even if they had maintained lockdown over Christmas. It so happens that I am simply terrified by me or my loved ones getting this so there was no way I was going to get together with two other households anyway. But in the same way I get the impression that had Johnson said no to Christmas people would have ignored him anyway and just gone ahead with their plans.

    I am just considering that during the last lockdown the roads were completely empty for weeks on end. This time around you really wouldn't know there was a lockdown at all with traffic completely normal. With the exception of shops and schools being closed I am really not seeing much sign of a lockdown.

    I think the big problem is that the message on people still being at risk in spite of the vaccine is not getting through.
    i certainly agree about this lockdown. plenty of traffic. lots of coming and goings up and down my local streets. lots of popping out being done. where are they are all going?
    The messaging of late has been shot to hell. The Christmas relaxation, which the tweet condemns, was belatedly revised to be less relaxed than had been advertised but how many noticed? Social media evidence of gatherings that would have been OK under the promised relaxation but not the delivered version suggests many people missed the change.

    We can go out to exercise, but should stay local, or drive across London to exercise. We can exercise once a day but no, hold on, Boris has noticed dogs want to be walked so that is another exception.

    It is just too complex for most people to keep up with, and we see this every time there is a change because Cabinet Ministers and Number 10 PR teams cannot agree what is what.

    And now the expectation is abroad that vaccination means a return to normal. And more confusion. It is announced that over-70s are now to be jabbed but they are not told more than that so waste everyone's time ringing GPs and others to find out what they need to do next.

    To be fair to the public, round here at least people are following the rules on masks.
    People didn't miss the change they just did what they wanted to do.

    We all have our own limit to the level of restrictions we are prepared to tolerate and when that limit is reached the restrictions are ignored.
    Social media postings suggest ignorance rather than defiance.
    Ignorance is part of doing what you want to do.

    Its not difficult to find out the guidelines or regulations but for many its "Who cares? I can't be bothered. I've had enough of these restrictions. Lets do what we want. Nobody's going to get hurt."

    Its a mindset we all get to at some point or other.
    People did find out and planned accordingly but were caught out by late changes.
    And then chose to do what they wanted.

    FFS what's all this 'planning' which was so desperately needed ?

    A Christmas dinner, and seeing someone on another day over Christmas is even less so, is not the equivalent of a round the world trip.
    Young family, 2.4 children, two sets of grandparents. Invite them over for Christmas dinner, that's three households which is allowed in a Christmas bubble, except at the last minute it was cut to two.
  • HYUFD said:

    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    They can't, any referendum result without UK government approval would be illegal.

    Plus only 45% of Scots back independence on the latest poll today anyway including Don't Knows

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    No it would not be illegal. It just wouldn't be legally binding. There is a very big difference.

    Anyway if you are right why are you so scared of a non binding advisory referendum that you are going to win anyway?
    No referendum result is guaranteed, see 2016, 2014 was once in a generation and must remain so
    You're forgetting again - once in a generation...unless there is a material change in circumstance such as Scotland leaving the EU without her consent.

    Remember the election campaign, vote No to remain in the EU. I did. A material change occurred. The more authoritarian the UK government becomes (and I don't think they will be), the more the desire for independence grows.

    Without a very serious further devolution, the Union stands no chance. It pains me but I'll remain British and Scottish, just not part of the UK.
    The latest indyref poll today has Yes on just 45% including undecideds, ie no change from 2014.
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    Based on the fact 62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016 if it was a material change in circumstances then Yes should be on 60%+.

    Plainly there has not been and so Boris will correctly refuse a legal indyref for the rest of this Parliament.

    I have no problem with devomax for Holyrood but there is no case for indyref2 now.
    :trollface:
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    HYUFD said:

    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    They can't, any referendum result without UK government approval would be illegal.

    Plus only 45% of Scots back independence on the latest poll today anyway including Don't Knows

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    No it would not be illegal. It just wouldn't be legally binding. There is a very big difference.

    Anyway if you are right why are you so scared of a non binding advisory referendum that you are going to win anyway?
    No referendum result is guaranteed, see 2016, 2014 was once in a generation and must remain so
    You're forgetting again - once in a generation...unless there is a material change in circumstance such as Scotland leaving the EU without her consent.

    Remember the election campaign, vote No to remain in the EU. I did. A material change occurred. The more authoritarian the UK government becomes (and I don't think they will be), the more the desire for independence grows.

    Without a very serious further devolution, the Union stands no chance. It pains me but I'll remain British and Scottish, just not part of the UK.
    The latest indyref poll today has Yes on just 45% including undecideds, ie no change from 2014.
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    Based on the fact 62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016 if Brexit was a material change in circumstances then Yes should be on 60%+.

    Plainly there has not been and so Boris will correctly refuse a legal indyref for the rest of this Parliament.

    I have no problem with devomax for Holyrood but there is no case for indyref2 now.
    To have a referendum there needs to be a compelling case. There's not.

    Even if there is you'd want there to be no clear adverse reasons (such as having recently had a referendum). There's clearly a mild adverse reason.

    SNP need to bide their time a little in my view. The leadership want independence to happen on their watch. Such considerations are irrelevant and I'm sure counter-productive.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    edited January 2021
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    They can't, any referendum result without UK government approval would be illegal.

    Plus only 45% of Scots back independence on the latest poll today anyway including Don't Knows

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    No it would not be illegal. It just wouldn't be legally binding. There is a very big difference.

    Anyway if you are right why are you so scared of a non binding advisory referendum that you are going to win anyway?
    No referendum result is guaranteed, see 2016, 2014 was once in a generation and must remain so
    You're forgetting again - once in a generation...unless there is a material change in circumstance such as Scotland leaving the EU without her consent.

    Remember the election campaign, vote No to remain in the EU. I did. A material change occurred. The more authoritarian the UK government becomes (and I don't think they will be), the more the desire for independence grows.

    Without a very serious further devolution, the Union stands no chance. It pains me but I'll remain British and Scottish, just not part of the UK.
    The latest indyref poll today has Yes on just 45% including undecideds, ie no change from 2014.
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    Based on the fact 62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016 if Brexit was a material change in circumstances then Yes should be on 60%+.

    Plainly there has not been and so Boris will correctly refuse a legal indyref for the rest of this Parliament.

    I have no problem with devomax for Holyrood but there is no case for indyref2 now.
    To have a referendum there needs to be a compelling case. There's not.

    Even if there is you'd want there to be no clear adverse reasons (such as having recently had a referendum). There's clearly a mild adverse reason.

    SNP need to bide their time a little in my view. The leadership want independence to happen on their watch. Such considerations are irrelevant and I'm sure counter-productive.
    The case will be that there'll be a clear desire expressed to have said referendum in the devolved parliament. If the Union means anything at all that should be respected. It's my view that we'd be "better together" so to speak but there'll be a compelling case if the SNP & greens form a majority campaigning on precisely that platform.
    Scotland isn't a colony.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    I'm sure they are very grateful not to be shot for expressing political opinions that are perfectly legal.
    I know it's easy, and maybe fun, to laugh at HYUFD. He/she does invite it (and remains unusually polite in response, it is worth noting)

    No one is going to send tanks over the Tweed

    However, on the basic politics, HYUFD is correct. Calling a Scottish indyref2 with the polls as wild as they are now is a risk no UK prime minister will take (and Starmer will be the same). They have all learned from the rueful fate of Dave "this is a good deal" Cameron

    It will be fudged. Devomax/Federalism will be soberly debated, a Solemn Royal Commission will be summoned om the constitutional future of the UK. Scots will be heard! Meanwhile the UK govt will quietly hope that the SNP self-destructs, as the rule-following Sturgeon tries to face down her UDI hardcore.

    No Sindyref2 til 2024, earliest. Ditto Ulster.
    If you mean by Ulster, Northern Ireland, you are wrong on a point of legality. Look it up.
    Jesus. Ulster, Connacht, Leinster, whatever. You know exactly what I mean
    Ulster is 9 counties, Northern Ireland 6.
  • Point of order: That is not a stretch limo; it is a stretch pickup truck. A double-decker bus has more class.
  • It does beg the question of whether it would have made any difference to people's behaviour even if they had maintained lockdown over Christmas. It so happens that I am simply terrified by me or my loved ones getting this so there was no way I was going to get together with two other households anyway. But in the same way I get the impression that had Johnson said no to Christmas people would have ignored him anyway and just gone ahead with their plans.

    I am just considering that during the last lockdown the roads were completely empty for weeks on end. This time around you really wouldn't know there was a lockdown at all with traffic completely normal. With the exception of shops and schools being closed I am really not seeing much sign of a lockdown.

    I think the big problem is that the message on people still being at risk in spite of the vaccine is not getting through.
    i certainly agree about this lockdown. plenty of traffic. lots of coming and goings up and down my local streets. lots of popping out being done. where are they are all going?
    The messaging of late has been shot to hell. The Christmas relaxation, which the tweet condemns, was belatedly revised to be less relaxed than had been advertised but how many noticed? Social media evidence of gatherings that would have been OK under the promised relaxation but not the delivered version suggests many people missed the change.

    We can go out to exercise, but should stay local, or drive across London to exercise. We can exercise once a day but no, hold on, Boris has noticed dogs want to be walked so that is another exception.

    It is just too complex for most people to keep up with, and we see this every time there is a change because Cabinet Ministers and Number 10 PR teams cannot agree what is what.

    And now the expectation is abroad that vaccination means a return to normal. And more confusion. It is announced that over-70s are now to be jabbed but they are not told more than that so waste everyone's time ringing GPs and others to find out what they need to do next.

    To be fair to the public, round here at least people are following the rules on masks.
    People didn't miss the change they just did what they wanted to do.

    We all have our own limit to the level of restrictions we are prepared to tolerate and when that limit is reached the restrictions are ignored.
    Social media postings suggest ignorance rather than defiance.
    Ignorance is part of doing what you want to do.

    Its not difficult to find out the guidelines or regulations but for many its "Who cares? I can't be bothered. I've had enough of these restrictions. Lets do what we want. Nobody's going to get hurt."

    Its a mindset we all get to at some point or other.
    People did find out and planned accordingly but were caught out by late changes.
    And then chose to do what they wanted.

    FFS what's all this 'planning' which was so desperately needed ?

    A Christmas dinner, and seeing someone on another day over Christmas is even less so, is not the equivalent of a round the world trip.
    Young family, 2.4 children, two sets of grandparents. Invite them over for Christmas dinner, that's three households which is allowed in a Christmas bubble, except at the last minute it was cut to two.
    So Boris rang up just as one set of grandparents was about to set off ?

    No, the announcement was made six days earlier.

    Six days is not last minute.

    And what was the response ?

    Was it "its absolutely impossible to change plans so we'll have everyone to Christmas dinner" or was it "lets have everyone to Christmas dinner in any case, its only one day and it can't do any harm".

    People have agency and options and they chose to do what they want.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    Boris refuses Sindyref2. What happens then?

    Talk me through it. Sturgeon is adamant she wants a legal, Westminer-sanctioned referendum. She has said it many times (correctly, in my opinion)

    The Nats replace her with someone who will go UDI? OR she calls a Catalan-style home-made referendum which is boycotted by No voters, just as the referendum was boycotted in Catalunya.

    Either route means disaster for Nats. Your alternative?
    Depends on the result. Remember the electoral system in Scotland was set up in such a way that it was supposed to be almost impossible for the Nats to get a majority. And yet they did. If they get a majority of the electorate (not the vote) then they are home dry. You might think it impossible but once Westminster has said no to a legal referendum I think a lot of the don't knows will fall on the Yes side in anger at the arrogance of Johnson.

    They may well not pull it off but if it was me I would think it was worth giving it a shot. If nothing else it would be a massive PR victory.
    You make no sense. Who is thinking it "worth giving a shot" and how? And what is the shot? And who has the victory? What??

    It makes perfect sense. The Scots want to hold a referendum. They are denied it by Johnson. So they go ahead anyway. If they get an absolute majority of the electorate in spite of the boycott then they can claim it is the settled will of the people. That is a massive PR coup. I wouldn't bet against it happening.
    They can't, any referendum result without UK government approval would be illegal.

    Plus only 45% of Scots back independence on the latest poll today anyway including Don't Knows

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    No it would not be illegal. It just wouldn't be legally binding. There is a very big difference.

    Anyway if you are right why are you so scared of a non binding advisory referendum that you are going to win anyway?
    No referendum result is guaranteed, see 2016, 2014 was once in a generation and must remain so
    You're forgetting again - once in a generation...unless there is a material change in circumstance such as Scotland leaving the EU without her consent.

    Remember the election campaign, vote No to remain in the EU. I did. A material change occurred. The more authoritarian the UK government becomes (and I don't think they will be), the more the desire for independence grows.

    Without a very serious further devolution, the Union stands no chance. It pains me but I'll remain British and Scottish, just not part of the UK.
    The latest indyref poll today has Yes on just 45% including undecideds, ie no change from 2014.
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20

    Based on the fact 62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016 if Brexit was a material change in circumstances then Yes should be on 60%+.

    Plainly there has not been and so Boris will correctly refuse a legal indyref for the rest of this Parliament.

    I have no problem with devomax for Holyrood but there is no case for indyref2 now.
    To have a referendum there needs to be a compelling case. There's not.

    Even if there is you'd want there to be no clear adverse reasons (such as having recently had a referendum). There's clearly a mild adverse reason.

    SNP need to bide their time a little in my view. The leadership want independence to happen on their watch. Such considerations are irrelevant and I'm sure counter-productive.
    The compelling case is a material change in circumstances ie leaving the eu. If the snp and greens or other parties with an independence referendum get a majority in 2021 then its a clear mandate to have a referendum. No one gives a flying f&&& what the tory party wants and if it cracks down on scotland I think it will find enough people are revolted by it that they wont be in power again for a long long while. I choose to believe most tories are saner than Hyufd
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Monkeys said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    No, the only way the SNP get a legal indyref2 is a Starmer premiership reliant on SNP confidence and supply
    Which keeps Labour out of power and kicks the ball far enough down the road for the SNP to implode. It's a win-win for Boris.
    Deluded!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,924

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    And in that democracy, we had an election in December 2019 where the party that stood on a platform of no further Scottish referendum won an 80 seat majority.

    Scotland had a chance in 2014 to avoid being bound by that 2019 election result. It chose not to dismantle the UK.

    That is a lot democracy.
    I'm sorry, but people are allowed to change their mind. If the Scots voted overwhelmingly for independence supporting parties, then I would have to conclude they had changed their minds.

    Just as, if the UK had voted Remain in 2016, and then in 2020 UKIP had won power, I would also have concluded that the voters had changed their minds.

    The voters of 2014 have no right to disenfranchise the voters of 2021.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We don’t know that they do

    It’s also a reserved power
  • Surely Pam would have already dispatched a gunboat?

    In a similar situation just across the Strait of Gibraltar, Theodore Roosevelt once famously demanded, "Perdicaris alive or Raisuli dead!"

    Surely now, Boris Johnson should be giving Spain a similar ultimatum: "Nando lives, and Franco is still dead!"
    Franco rose to power in the Spanish Civil War. Wasn't that triggered by Catalonian home rule?
    No.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.

    Nationalists should count themselves lucky the British government no longer uses firing squads for those seeking to commit treachery against the British State and the Crown but merely refuses independence referendums being held more than once a generation
    Quebec had referendums in 1980 and 1995, only 15 years apart.
    2014 was only 7 years ago not 15
    So we'll have another Indyref in 2029!
    That is a pretty good guess. I can see the SNP gently declining as Sturgeon ages and indy doesn't happen. But there is now a solid 35-40% hard support for indy which isn't going anywhere. And it may grow.

    At some point there will be a 2nd vote, just as there was in Quebec. 15 years after 2014 seems about right (the minimum definition of a "generation").

    2030+, roughly. A new SNP govt under new leadership. Facing a UK Labour government under billionaire Euan Blair.
    All this "generation" stuff is bollocks, though, you do know that? It's not written in law, it's not part of the constitution. If the people of Scotland want to have a vote, give them a fucking vote.

    I thought we lived in a democracy.
    We don’t know that they do

    It’s also a reserved power
    We’ll find out very soon
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848
    A lot is made of people voting "trump to pwn the libtards". I am beginning to more and more see there point as I get more and more inclined to vote labour just to see Hyufd's tears
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Monkeys said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    No, the only way the SNP get a legal indyref2 is a Starmer premiership reliant on SNP confidence and supply
    Which keeps Labour out of power and kicks the ball far enough down the road for the SNP to implode. It's a win-win for Boris.
    Monkeys said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The only way BoZo avoids Indyref2 is if the SNP implode. Which has a non-zero probability

    No, the only way the SNP get a legal indyref2 is a Starmer premiership reliant on SNP confidence and supply
    Which keeps Labour out of power and kicks the ball far enough down the road for the SNP to implode. It's a win-win for Boris.
    Labour has crept up to 23% in today's Scotland poll from Survation . It represents a small swing from SNP to Lab since 2019. If Labour gets close to 30% with the SNP falling back to circa 40% , quite a few SNP seats become vulnerable.
  • Ministers are increasingly concerned about the pace of the coronavirus vaccine rollout after a reduction in the supply of Pfizer-Biontech jabs.

    The number of people receiving their first dose on Monday fell for the third day in a row to 204,076 from a high of 324,000 on Friday.

    Pfizer said supplies of vaccine would be lower this month and next as it was upgrading its factory in Belgium before increasing production in March.

    A government source said that the supply had become “very constrained” with ministers concerned about meeting the target to vaccinate 15 million people in the four most vulnerable groups by mid-February. “It’s going to be very, very tight,” the source said.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/fears-over-coronavirus-vaccine-supplies-as-rate-drops-r9f5vs9k2
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited January 2021
    For decades, Roger Daltrey reminded the nation in 2019, Europe had been prime touring territory for Britain’s cultural behemoths. “As if we didn’t tour Europe before the f***ing EU,” the Brexiteer said in an interview.

    Now the Who singer has joined more than 100 musicians including the violinist Nicola Benedetti to condemn a trade deal they claim will ruin many performers.

    The letter, published in The Times today and also signed by Judith Weir, master of the Queen’s music, and Michael Eavis, founder of Glastonbury, says that the government’s “negotiating failure” threatens the future of cultural exchange with the Continent. It calls on ministers to “urgently do what it said it would do and negotiate paperwork-free travel in Europe for British artists and their equipment”.

    The presence of Daltrey, a prominent Brexiteer, on the list indicates the scale of fears about the costs of performing in Europe, a previously lucrative domain.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/more-than-100-music-stars-attack-brexit-deal-687znfk66
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848

    For decades, Roger Daltrey reminded the nation in 2019, Europe had been prime touring territory for Britain’s cultural behemoths. “As if we didn’t tour Europe before the f***ing EU,” the Brexiteer said in an interview.

    Now the Who singer has joined more than 100 musicians including the violinist Nicola Benedetti to condemn a trade deal they claim will ruin many performers.

    The letter, published in The Times today and also signed by Judith Weir, master of the Queen’s music, and Michael Eavis, founder of Glastonbury, says that the government’s “negotiating failure” threatens the future of cultural exchange with the Continent. It calls on ministers to “urgently do what it said it would do and negotiate paperwork-free travel in Europe for British artists and their equipment”.

    The presence of Daltrey, a prominent Brexiteer, on the list indicates the scale of fears about the costs of performing in Europe, a previously lucrative domain.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/more-than-100-music-stars-attack-brexit-deal-687znfk66

    I am sure british fans would be more than happy if they instead played a few more gigs here, I am fairly certain that the who probably sells out most of its gigs here in any case. The continentals can all go to Vanessa Paradis gigs instead.
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