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Lucky. Trump’s farcial self-coup failed because of little more than the happenstance of his inadequa

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 9 in General
imageLucky. Trump’s farcial self-coup failed because of little more than the happenstance of his inadequate political awareness – politicalbetting.com

Where did it go wrong for Donald Trump? Wednesday’s events will prove a watershed moment for his political career. Beforehand, he was absolutely dominant in the Republican Party, with the expectations of many that he would remain so even out of office. Now, that aura of raw power shines far more dimly – not merely because he finally crossed a line unacceptable to many in the GOP but because he looked foolish in doing so.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 53,302
    edited January 9
    Apparently now the most leaning left dripping wet liberal mayor in America is fair game for the far leftist lot that he just won't take action against...in their words apparently he is a fascist and hit him while he was quietly having some food.

    https://www.oregonlive.com/portland/2021/01/mayor-ted-wheeler-confronted-reportedly-punched-while-dining-in-nw-portland.html

    Some of the tweets about this incident say its fine, because the police department are bad, and that where ever he goes in public they will ruin it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732
    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 11,407
    Bravo David - excellent
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 36,845
    FPT: "The SNP are less likely to enjoy their current hegemony post independence. I can even imagine a (rebranded) Scottish Conservative party being in government post independence."

    I don't buy that. If Scotland is going to be independent, then surely the expression of that is ensuring it remains something very different to what they have now - a Tory Government. The SNP will ride the wave of delivery for a decade before it all gets horribly incestuous, with a chumocracy that even the Westminster Tories would never have the neck to put in place. Some bad scandals, some jail time and a quite abrupt turning away from the SNP is my guess.

    But not to anything that looks like it might be Tories in disguise. A new Tartan-clad social democrat party would be my guess, one that appeals to both LibDems and Tories with quite a few ex-SLAB and SNPers who see a need for change climbing aboard. The interesting question will be - is it a party that will want to join the EU? But they will have the benefit of quite a few years to see how the wind is blowing on that. (Implicit in that is that I don't expect the SNP to apply to join straight away - there will be a huge debate about the pros and cons. There will be plenty who don't want to swap the choke-hold of Westminster for the choke-hold of Brussels....)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903
    FPT

    Floater said:

    Another 737 goes missing in Indonesia sadly

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_in_Indonesia

    2nd para refers.
    Also was it a 737 MAX
    Some media are reporting that it’s a 737 Max - but no, it isn’t. It’s an old 737-500. Sadly Indonesia has a very poor record on aviation safety. 55 people on board, not looking like anything but a bad outcome. Debris found in the water.

    https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/637944-737-500-missing-indonesia.html
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,317
    Floater said:

    Bravo David - excellent

    Couldn't agree more. Lock Him Up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514
    edited January 9
    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732

    FPT: "The SNP are less likely to enjoy their current hegemony post independence. I can even imagine a (rebranded) Scottish Conservative party being in government post independence."

    I don't buy that. If Scotland is going to be independent, then surely the expression of that is ensuring it remains something very different to what they have now - a Tory Government. The SNP will ride the wave of delivery for a decade before it all gets horribly incestuous, with a chumocracy that even the Westminster Tories would never have the neck to put in place. Some bad scandals, some jail time and a quite abrupt turning away from the SNP is my guess.

    But not to anything that looks like it might be Tories in disguise. A new Tartan-clad social democrat party would be my guess, one that appeals to both LibDems and Tories with quite a few ex-SLAB and SNPers who see a need for change climbing aboard. The interesting question will be - is it a party that will want to join the EU? But they will have the benefit of quite a few years to see how the wind is blowing on that. (Implicit in that is that I don't expect the SNP to apply to join straight away - there will be a huge debate about the pros and cons. There will be plenty who don't want to swap the choke-hold of Westminster for the choke-hold of Brussels....)

    The precedent of the ANC is not encouraging.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 53,302
    It dangerous times in America. You can't have a democracy if it is open season on elected officials be it in Washington or elsewhere, just because you disagree with their politics or a department they are in charge of.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,354
    edited January 9
    Looked like a good piece but I'm afraid I gave up on the third or fourth paragraph. Too long, too wordy.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,887
    Sadly all these truths were self evident.
    So many went along with them. I see it is still all Antifa and Soros' fault.
    The man is a terrorist. Always has been. Plain as day. Fortunately a crap one.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,711
    stjohn said:

    Floater said:

    Bravo David - excellent

    Couldn't agree more. Lock Him Up.
    That is a bit mean. What has David done to deserve that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,037
    This attempted coup was farcical, although it could have have turned out very bloodily. I'm pretty sure that people like Nancy Pelosi would have been strung up had they fallen into the hands of the rioters.

    The hallmark of a properly executed coup d'etat is that it should be almost bloodless at the point of execution, because all the pieces have already been played.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 24,349
    DavidL said:

    FPT: "The SNP are less likely to enjoy their current hegemony post independence. I can even imagine a (rebranded) Scottish Conservative party being in government post independence."

    I don't buy that. If Scotland is going to be independent, then surely the expression of that is ensuring it remains something very different to what they have now - a Tory Government. The SNP will ride the wave of delivery for a decade before it all gets horribly incestuous, with a chumocracy that even the Westminster Tories would never have the neck to put in place. Some bad scandals, some jail time and a quite abrupt turning away from the SNP is my guess.

    But not to anything that looks like it might be Tories in disguise. A new Tartan-clad social democrat party would be my guess, one that appeals to both LibDems and Tories with quite a few ex-SLAB and SNPers who see a need for change climbing aboard. The interesting question will be - is it a party that will want to join the EU? But they will have the benefit of quite a few years to see how the wind is blowing on that. (Implicit in that is that I don't expect the SNP to apply to join straight away - there will be a huge debate about the pros and cons. There will be plenty who don't want to swap the choke-hold of Westminster for the choke-hold of Brussels....)

    The precedent of the ANC is not encouraging.
    Not even I would use a precedent suggesting that the Union resembles apartheid S.Africa!
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,068
    Had he succeeded, it would have triggered a civil war. Because there would be plenty of people left willing to raise arms against him. The loyalty of the military to Trump would be far from a given.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    This Senate? When its easier to let it slide as he is out of office soon?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 84
    It could be that post indy, the political split will be, rejoin the EU, join EFTA, stay totally independent, rejoin the UK. I hope not! I think the existing parties are more likely to evolve into a wet type Conservative party, a hard right Brexit type party, a social democratic party combining elements of the SNP and Labour, and a left wing party combining parts of SNP, the SSP and the Greens. I don’t see a role for the Lib Dems anywhere (just like the UK).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377
    To be an effective coup Trump needed the support of the army and police, a rabble rousing mob was always going to lose control after a few hours and so it proved and then Congress returned to confirm it would not object to Biden's win bar the Trump diehards within the GOP
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,068
    Should say I think this analysis of Trump’s thinking is entirely right. The really telling indicator was the absence of the National Guard, and their failure to respond when summoned.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,793
    Sean_F said:

    This attempted coup was farcical, although it could have have turned out very bloodily. I'm pretty sure that people like Nancy Pelosi would have been strung up had they fallen into the hands of the rioters.

    The hallmark of a properly executed coup d'etat is that it should be almost bloodless at the point of execution, because all the pieces have already been played.

    I don't think it was a serious attempt at a coup. It was a demonstration - in the military definition - and an attempt to use the mob and create a mythology for the future. I see it more as the basis for the use of violent force during the next 4 years of opposition. Think the Nazis in the 1920s.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,711
    Sean_F said:

    This attempted coup was farcical, although it could have have turned out very bloodily. I'm pretty sure that people like Nancy Pelosi would have been strung up had they fallen into the hands of the rioters.

    The hallmark of a properly executed coup d'etat is that it should be almost bloodless at the point of execution, because all the pieces have already been played.

    Although it was the day after, the death and nature of it that shocked me most was that of the policeman.

    I know nothing of US laws; can Trump be held responsible anyway for these deaths e.g. incitement.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 5,155
    It's very easy to get po-faced about how worrying all this is, but it's worth asking how much more worried one should have been if these had been militant muslim terrorists and the answer is: infinitely. These guys partly think their weapons are the relatively harmless toys you see in "action films," only there to be posed with on instagram, and partly realise how lethal they are and that if they start shooting The Man is going to start shooting back a lot fcking harder. So they don't start. Either way they don't use them and aren't about to start. We will see a couple more car bombs and lone shooter incidents over the coming months, but not a proper shooting civil war.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    This Senate? When its easier to let it slide as he is out of office soon?
    The conviction will probably be after 20th January but that is apparently competent.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,924
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    Can someone be impeached once out of office? If not, the time to do so is very short.
  • One of your best David.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377


    Electoral Calculus gives Tories 302, Labour 261, SNP 58 and LDs 6, PC 4 and Greens 1 and NI 18 on the new Yougov poll on current boundaries.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=39&LIB=6&Brexit=3&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=20.5&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=0&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=50.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019

    So the Tories would be largest party but Starmer would be PM but only with SNP confidence and supply
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    edited January 9

    Looked like a good piece but I'm afraid I gave up on the third or fourth paragraph. Too long, too wordy.

    Lightweight. :smile:
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 84
    Possibly the best summary of Trump I have read. Thank you David! The USA needs to decide what it needs to do to avoid their democracy being in such danger ever again - assuming they want to.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,793

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    Can someone be impeached once out of office? If not, the time to do so is very short.
    From what people are saying, yes they can, but I think the articles of impeachment have to be moved while they are in office
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498

    Sean_F said:

    This attempted coup was farcical, although it could have have turned out very bloodily. I'm pretty sure that people like Nancy Pelosi would have been strung up had they fallen into the hands of the rioters.

    The hallmark of a properly executed coup d'etat is that it should be almost bloodless at the point of execution, because all the pieces have already been played.

    I don't think it was a serious attempt at a coup. It was a demonstration - in the military definition - and an attempt to use the mob and create a mythology for the future. I see it more as the basis for the use of violent force during the next 4 years of opposition. Think the Nazis in the 1920s.
    What chances Democrat representatives in a state legislature somewhere are captured and killed at some point in the next four years? It must be pretty scary for them knowing many Republican politicians at that level who control local law enforcement go along with the coup.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 20,920
    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    Floater said:

    Another 737 goes missing in Indonesia sadly

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_in_Indonesia

    2nd para refers.
    Also was it a 737 MAX
    Some media are reporting that it’s a 737 Max - but no, it isn’t. It’s an old 737-500. Sadly Indonesia has a very poor record on aviation safety. 55 people on board, not looking like anything but a bad outcome. Debris found in the water.

    https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/637944-737-500-missing-indonesia.html
    So many planes have been standing idle for so long in 2020.

    I am sticking to the Red Funnel this year, again!
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,317
    Trump is a bully and a coward. He wanted the coup to succeed but deep down knew it was unlikely to do so and did not want to face the consequences of being caught red handed. Caught with blood on his hands.

    He behaved like a Caesar or a Mafia boss. He made it as clear as he dared, without explicitly saying so, what he wanted to happen. "Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?" But the coward in him and perhaps any residual humanity that still lurks within his baseless soul, stopped him going all in.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    This Senate? When its easier to let it slide as he is out of office soon?
    I think there are probably a number of Republican senators who realise that their lives were in danger. Pence is quite possibly thinking the same.

    Those who were on board with the steal (whether or not with the coup) might well be so inclined. The rest are likely much more persuadable.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    Can someone be impeached once out of office? If not, the time to do so is very short.
    From what people are saying, yes they can, but I think the articles of impeachment have to be moved while they are in office
    It is arguable, so likely down to the Supreme Court if the senate convicts.
  • FossFoss Posts: 198
    The New Yorker has talked to one of the flexicuff guys. Apparently he ‘found them’ and was going to take them to teacher.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,037



    What chances Democrat representatives in a state legislature somewhere are captured and killed at some point in the next four years? It must be pretty scary for them knowing many Republican politicians at that level who control local law enforcement go along with the coup.

    Pretty likely. Of course, some of these nutters will go for Republicans too, who they deem traitors to the cause.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    Great article, David.
    I agree with every line.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 11,379
    stjohn said:

    He behaved like a Caesar or a Mafia boss. He made it as clear as he dared, without explicitly saying so, what he wanted to happen. "Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?" But the coward in him and perhaps any residual humanity that still lurks within his baseless soul, stopped him going all in.

    He didn't stop very far short of "all in"
  • TresTres Posts: 286

    Looked like a good piece but I'm afraid I gave up on the third or fourth paragraph. Too long, too wordy.

    yeah, who wants to come to a website for words these days
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,887
    Several members of the GOP came out well when the heat was on. I name Raffensperger. Gov. Kemp. The Governor of Maryland who called out the National Guard and deployed them. The numerous Congress folk and Senators who were having none of it.
    Above all Mike Pence. Who almost single handedly saved the Republic. Who'd have imagined that?
    The problem with a coup is you need full control of your own side. Don thought he did. But didn't.
    When the curtain was drawn back there wasn't much more than a sad loser and a bunch of enablers.
    Some very sad, some extremely dangerous.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498
    edited January 9
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    This Senate? When its easier to let it slide as he is out of office soon?
    I think there are probably a number of Republican senators who realise that their lives were in danger. Pence is quite possibly thinking the same.

    Those who were on board with the steal (whether or not with the coup) might well be so inclined. The rest are likely much more persuadable.
    Even someone like Ted Cruz is now hated by Democrats, Romney types AND a fair proportion of MAGAs. It is really hard to predict how this plays out in the Republican party. Everything has changed, but how it will develop is unknowable.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    Floater said:

    Another 737 goes missing in Indonesia sadly

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_in_Indonesia

    2nd para refers.
    Also was it a 737 MAX
    Some media are reporting that it’s a 737 Max - but no, it isn’t. It’s an old 737-500. Sadly Indonesia has a very poor record on aviation safety. 55 people on board, not looking like anything but a bad outcome. Debris found in the water.

    https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/637944-737-500-missing-indonesia.html
    So many planes have been standing idle for so long in 2020.

    I am sticking to the Red Funnel this year, again!
    It’s certainly a fair point that some operators, in places like Indonesia, may have been less than thorough in their processes for bring back grounded aeroplanes to flight.

    Most western operators will be okay though, they have a lot of processes for various stages of mothballing planes, to ensure that the wet bits don’t dry out and the dry bits don’t get wet. They start them up and taxi them around every week or so, and fly them every few weeks to check stuff like pressurisation systems.

    Out where I live, we often see an A380 flying circuits (up, round and down), to make sure both planes and pilots don’t get rusty. There’s 100 of them on the ground at DWC airport at the moment.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 6,005

    Sean_F said:

    This attempted coup was farcical, although it could have have turned out very bloodily. I'm pretty sure that people like Nancy Pelosi would have been strung up had they fallen into the hands of the rioters.

    The hallmark of a properly executed coup d'etat is that it should be almost bloodless at the point of execution, because all the pieces have already been played.

    I don't think it was a serious attempt at a coup. It was a demonstration - in the military definition - and an attempt to use the mob and create a mythology for the future. I see it more as the basis for the use of violent force during the next 4 years of opposition. Think the Nazis in the 1920s.
    I dont think there was any strategy at all. Trump just makes it up as he goes along in a haze of dementia, personality disorders and drugs.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    This attempted coup was farcical, although it could have have turned out very bloodily. I'm pretty sure that people like Nancy Pelosi would have been strung up had they fallen into the hands of the rioters.

    The hallmark of a properly executed coup d'etat is that it should be almost bloodless at the point of execution, because all the pieces have already been played.

    I don't think it was a serious attempt at a coup. It was a demonstration - in the military definition - and an attempt to use the mob and create a mythology for the future. I see it more as the basis for the use of violent force during the next 4 years of opposition. Think the Nazis in the 1920s.
    I dont think there was any strategy at all. Trump just makes it up as he goes along in a haze of dementia, personality disorders and drugs.
    It all started with the legislation ordering mail in votes to be counted last which was put in place many months before the election. There was definitely a long term plan to stay in office even if they lost.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    edited January 9
    stjohn said:

    Trump is a bully and a coward. He wanted the coup to succeed but deep down knew it was unlikely to do so and did not want to face the consequences of being caught red handed. Caught with blood on his hands.

    He behaved like a Caesar or a Mafia boss. He made it as clear as he dared, without explicitly saying so, what he wanted to happen. "Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?" But the coward in him and perhaps any residual humanity that still lurks within his baseless soul, stopped him going all in.

    That’s how many coups are done: plausible deniability until it works.
    Incompetence meant it didn’t - and made any denial implausible - but even so, I think it came a lot closer to succeeding than the farcical elements make it appear.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 17,156
    edited January 9
    On topic: I agree with most of what David writes. I've been right about Trump in most respects but I was mistaken about the motive for his post election antics. I thought it was about positioning for post White House. That he knew he had to go but wanted to do it with his aura of "winner" intact for his fanbase. Not so. It was a serious effort to stay in power. The good news is it failed - proving in case proof were needed why an independent judiciary is crucial for any democracy - and the even better news is that this latest grandiose overreach has surely finished him and his clan in politics.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775
    The mob failed to change the outcome of the election, but it showed the world what was possible. If the mob and its enablers — the president and his allies — walk away unpunished, then the mob will return.

    Again, five people are dead who were alive when Wednesday began. Next time, it might be dozens. Or hundreds. Next time, our government might not bounce back so easily. Here, Congress doesn’t need courage. It just needs a sense of self-preservation.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/opinion/trump-capitol-riot-impeachment.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498
    kinabalu said:

    On topic: I agree with most of what David writes. I've been right about Trump in most respects but I was mistaken about the motive for his post election antics. I thought it was about positioning for post White House. That he knew he had to go but wanted to do it with his aura of "winner" intact for his fanbase. Not so. It was a serious effort to stay in power. The good news is it failed - proving in case proof were needed why an independent judiciary is crucial for any democracy - and the even better news is that this latest grandiose overreach has surely finished him and his clan in politics.

    Don't write him off yet!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,374
    What an excellent analysis - well done David.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 13,182
    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 8,334
    O/T

    "Indonesia plane: Boeing missing after losing 'more than 10,000ft in less than a minute'
    Suspected debris has been found off Jakarta, a rescue agency official has said, although its source has not been confirmed."

    https://news.sky.com/story/indonesia-plane-boeing-missing-after-losing-more-than-10-000ft-in-less-than-a-minute-12183054
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,912

    Had he succeeded, it would have triggered a civil war. Because there would be plenty of people left willing to raise arms against him. The loyalty of the military to Trump would be far from a given.

    I wonder if how levels of support for gun ownership will change across the political spectrum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    This Senate? When its easier to let it slide as he is out of office soon?
    I think there are probably a number of Republican senators who realise that their lives were in danger. Pence is quite possibly thinking the same.

    Those who were on board with the steal (whether or not with the coup) might well be so inclined. The rest are likely much more persuadable.
    Even someone like Ted Cruz is now hated by Democrats, Romney types AND a fair proportion of MAGAs. It is really hard to predict how this plays out in the Republican party. Everything has changed, but how it will develop is unknowable.
    Only 8 GOP Senators objected to Biden's election, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Cindy Hyde-Smith, John Kennedy, Cynthia Lummis, Roger Marshall, Rick Scott and Tommy Tuberville.



    While the Democratic controlled House would almost certainly vote to impeach Trump again it is the until Jan 20th GOP controlled Senate that would try him and vote on whether to convict him or not
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,466

    Looked like a good piece but I'm afraid I gave up on the third or fourth paragraph. Too long, too wordy.

    It's not exactly War and Peace.

    I thought it was just long enough to make its argument.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    This attempted coup was farcical, although it could have have turned out very bloodily. I'm pretty sure that people like Nancy Pelosi would have been strung up had they fallen into the hands of the rioters.

    The hallmark of a properly executed coup d'etat is that it should be almost bloodless at the point of execution, because all the pieces have already been played.

    I don't think it was a serious attempt at a coup. It was a demonstration - in the military definition - and an attempt to use the mob and create a mythology for the future. I see it more as the basis for the use of violent force during the next 4 years of opposition. Think the Nazis in the 1920s.
    I dont think there was any strategy at all. Trump just makes it up as he goes along in a haze of dementia, personality disorders and drugs.
    Possible, but he has one or two more clear headed incipient fascists around him.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 11,379

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    Noted elsewhere, the debate is raging over which of them is telling lies, while the obvious truth would be that both of them are
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 13,182

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/hiroshima-non-amour/

    Link.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    This Senate? When its easier to let it slide as he is out of office soon?
    I think there are probably a number of Republican senators who realise that their lives were in danger. Pence is quite possibly thinking the same.

    Those who were on board with the steal (whether or not with the coup) might well be so inclined. The rest are likely much more persuadable.
    Even someone like Ted Cruz is now hated by Democrats, Romney types AND a fair proportion of MAGAs. It is really hard to predict how this plays out in the Republican party. Everything has changed, but how it will develop is unknowable.
    Only 8 GOP Senators objected to Biden's election, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Cindy Hyde-Smith, John Kennedy, Cynthia Lummis, Roger Marshall, Rick Scott and Tommy Tuberville.



    While the Democratic controlled House would almost certainly vote to impeach Trump again it is the until Jan 20th GOP controlled Senate that would try him and vote on whether to convict him or not
    It is still the GOP after the 20th as it needs a two thirds majority. Struggling to see how it can happen without McConnell's backing. From what we know of McConnell there is probably something the Dems can give him for the votes, not sure what it would be bar expecting it will be a tough ask for the Dems to give him his favour in return.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 13,182
    Scott_xP said:

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    Noted elsewhere, the debate is raging over which of them is telling lies, while the obvious truth would be that both of them are
    I honestly think there are two options.
    1. She goes now.
    2. She stays as 'caretaker' to 'see Covid through' but promises to make way for a new leader at some predetermined point. I don't see an option 3 where she survives. But perhaps I'm totally wrong.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,111

    DavidL said:

    FPT: "The SNP are less likely to enjoy their current hegemony post independence. I can even imagine a (rebranded) Scottish Conservative party being in government post independence."

    I don't buy that. If Scotland is going to be independent, then surely the expression of that is ensuring it remains something very different to what they have now - a Tory Government. The SNP will ride the wave of delivery for a decade before it all gets horribly incestuous, with a chumocracy that even the Westminster Tories would never have the neck to put in place. Some bad scandals, some jail time and a quite abrupt turning away from the SNP is my guess.

    But not to anything that looks like it might be Tories in disguise. A new Tartan-clad social democrat party would be my guess, one that appeals to both LibDems and Tories with quite a few ex-SLAB and SNPers who see a need for change climbing aboard. The interesting question will be - is it a party that will want to join the EU? But they will have the benefit of quite a few years to see how the wind is blowing on that. (Implicit in that is that I don't expect the SNP to apply to join straight away - there will be a huge debate about the pros and cons. There will be plenty who don't want to swap the choke-hold of Westminster for the choke-hold of Brussels....)

    The precedent of the ANC is not encouraging.
    Not even I would use a precedent suggesting that the Union resembles apartheid S.Africa!
    More Zimbabwe
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,912
    Would the military intervene? It’s unlikely, if they’re ordered not to. While the army might well refuse unlawful orders, it’s a wholly different thing for them to independently initiate action.

    Its not only the President who has control of a military force.

    What would have happened if the Governors of Virginia or Maryland had sent in their national guards to retake the Capitol ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 35,715
    edited January 9
    FAKE NEWS from @david_herdson!

    (only kidding! Great stuff!)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,466

    Sean_F said:

    This attempted coup was farcical, although it could have have turned out very bloodily. I'm pretty sure that people like Nancy Pelosi would have been strung up had they fallen into the hands of the rioters.

    The hallmark of a properly executed coup d'etat is that it should be almost bloodless at the point of execution, because all the pieces have already been played.

    I don't think it was a serious attempt at a coup. It was a demonstration - in the military definition - and an attempt to use the mob and create a mythology for the future. I see it more as the basis for the use of violent force during the next 4 years of opposition. Think the Nazis in the 1920s.
    What chances Democrat representatives in a state legislature somewhere are captured and killed at some point in the next four years? It must be pretty scary for them knowing many Republican politicians at that level who control local law enforcement go along with the coup.
    I saw a list that claims to have found five who stormed the Capitol building and posted about it on social media.

    There's a large Coup Caucus within the Republican Party at all levels. A line has now to be drawn.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498

    Looked like a good piece but I'm afraid I gave up on the third or fourth paragraph. Too long, too wordy.

    It's not exactly War and Peace.

    I thought it was just long enough to make its argument.
    Criticisms of the articles here being too long consistently astound me. Who can be bothered to log on to a political betting site a couple of days after a coup in Washington yet finds two minutes reading something very well written and argued a bit too much? And then makes that public!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    If true that could destroy SNP chances of a Holyrood majority in May and that would add to pressure on Sturgeon to resign
  • eekeek Posts: 10,100

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    This Senate? When its easier to let it slide as he is out of office soon?
    I think there are probably a number of Republican senators who realise that their lives were in danger. Pence is quite possibly thinking the same.

    Those who were on board with the steal (whether or not with the coup) might well be so inclined. The rest are likely much more persuadable.
    Even someone like Ted Cruz is now hated by Democrats, Romney types AND a fair proportion of MAGAs. It is really hard to predict how this plays out in the Republican party. Everything has changed, but how it will develop is unknowable.
    Only 8 GOP Senators objected to Biden's election, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Cindy Hyde-Smith, John Kennedy, Cynthia Lummis, Roger Marshall, Rick Scott and Tommy Tuberville.



    While the Democratic controlled House would almost certainly vote to impeach Trump again it is the until Jan 20th GOP controlled Senate that would try him and vote on whether to convict him or not
    It is still the GOP after the 20th as it needs a two thirds majority. Struggling to see how it can happen without McConnell's backing. From what we know of McConnell there is probably something the Dems can give him for the votes, not sure what it would be bar expecting it will be a tough ask for the Dems to give him his favour in return.
    The only way Trump is convicted is if the GOP want rid of him permanently.

    And without any way of getting rid of Trump Jr and the rest of the Trump mob it's a pointless exercise as there will be someone waiting to take the support that comes from Trump's endorsement.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,269
    Whether it was part of Trumps's strategy or not the assassination of large numbers of senators and representatives, and including the VP, was considerably more than a distinct possibility, more like an extremely narrow escape.

    I don't know if that would have been enough to make the coup stick in of itself, but the political ramifications of that would have been humongous either way.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,924
    Bye Folks. Wife has hospital out-patients appointment this afternoon. Nice afternoon for a drive, though!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,111
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    This attempted coup was farcical, although it could have have turned out very bloodily. I'm pretty sure that people like Nancy Pelosi would have been strung up had they fallen into the hands of the rioters.

    The hallmark of a properly executed coup d'etat is that it should be almost bloodless at the point of execution, because all the pieces have already been played.

    I don't think it was a serious attempt at a coup. It was a demonstration - in the military definition - and an attempt to use the mob and create a mythology for the future. I see it more as the basis for the use of violent force during the next 4 years of opposition. Think the Nazis in the 1920s.
    I dont think there was any strategy at all. Trump just makes it up as he goes along in a haze of dementia, personality disorders and drugs.
    It was just a bunch of nutjobs , most of whom would struggle to beat a carpet.
    Anyone suggesting a coup is similar or on the make.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312

    Looked like a good piece but I'm afraid I gave up on the third or fourth paragraph. Too long, too wordy.

    It's not exactly War and Peace.

    I thought it was just long enough to make its argument.
    Criticisms of the articles here being too long consistently astound me. Who can be bothered to log on to a political betting site a couple of days after a coup in Washington yet finds two minutes reading something very well written and argued a bit too much? And then makes that public!
    A writer, apparently.
  • Nigelb said:

    Looked like a good piece but I'm afraid I gave up on the third or fourth paragraph. Too long, too wordy.

    It's not exactly War and Peace.

    I thought it was just long enough to make its argument.
    Criticisms of the articles here being too long consistently astound me. Who can be bothered to log on to a political betting site a couple of days after a coup in Washington yet finds two minutes reading something very well written and argued a bit too much? And then makes that public!
    A writer, apparently.
    But evidently not a reader.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,111

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    I agree Lucky and supposedly that is just the start of what he has.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,887

    Would the military intervene? It’s unlikely, if they’re ordered not to. While the army might well refuse unlawful orders, it’s a wholly different thing for them to independently initiate action.

    Its not only the President who has control of a military force.

    What would have happened if the Governors of Virginia or Maryland had sent in their national guards to retake the Capitol ?

    They did.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wusa9.com/amp/article/news/local/dc/national-guard-troops-deployed-washington-dc-us-capital-building-lockdown/65-afd10329-b508-4cbc-939a-5901a1b33d53
  • LeonLeon Posts: 893
    Excellent header. I've been very doubtful that this was a genuine coup - I see it - or saw it - as a piece of theatre designed to assuage the hurt pride of a wounded narcissist. A piece of theatre that got way out of hand.

    But this might have persuaded me. Biden needs to do the biggest political investigation in US history, because if it was a genuine attempt at a coup, it is bigger than Watergate by many orders of magnitude.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,912
    dixiedean said:

    Several members of the GOP came out well when the heat was on. I name Raffensperger. Gov. Kemp. The Governor of Maryland who called out the National Guard and deployed them. The numerous Congress folk and Senators who were having none of it.
    Above all Mike Pence. Who almost single handedly saved the Republic. Who'd have imagined that?
    The problem with a coup is you need full control of your own side. Don thought he did. But didn't.
    When the curtain was drawn back there wasn't much more than a sad loser and a bunch of enablers.
    Some very sad, some extremely dangerous.

    To get loyalty you first need to show loyalty.

    And I doubt few people have ever thought that Trump was loyal to them.
  • TresTres Posts: 286
    HYUFD said:

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    If true that could destroy SNP chances of a Holyrood majority in May and that would add to pressure on Sturgeon to resign
    Grasping at straws still I see.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377
    Scott_xP said:
    Disagree, Hawley is young, articulate, very intelligent, Standford and Yale degrees, taught at St Paul's, a former lawyer and now probably the most telegenic figurehead for the Trumpite GOP base once Trump leaves office
  • FossFoss Posts: 198
    HYUFD said:

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    If true that could destroy SNP chances of a Holyrood majority in May and that would add to pressure on Sturgeon to resign
    That’d be good for Starmer and mixed for Johnson.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,111

    Scott_xP said:

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    Noted elsewhere, the debate is raging over which of them is telling lies, while the obvious truth would be that both of them are
    I honestly think there are two options.
    1. She goes now.
    2. She stays as 'caretaker' to 'see Covid through' but promises to make way for a new leader at some predetermined point. I don't see an option 3 where she survives. But perhaps I'm totally wrong.
    Given her evidence and that of her husband so far, she has been involved deeply and lied repeatedly. Salmond may have been a womaniser but as shown in court the stitch up was either fabricated or consensual. People may not like that but it means they don't like millions that are doing similar at work every day. Key point is she tried to have him jailed to stop him coming back into politics , failed miserably and then tried to cover up and lied to parliament etc.
    She is a goner , no UN job in Geneva for her as Boris will welch for sure.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 9,230

    FPT: "The SNP are less likely to enjoy their current hegemony post independence. I can even imagine a (rebranded) Scottish Conservative party being in government post independence."

    I don't buy that. If Scotland is going to be independent, then surely the expression of that is ensuring it remains something very different to what they have now - a Tory Government. The SNP will ride the wave of delivery for a decade before it all gets horribly incestuous, with a chumocracy that even the Westminster Tories would never have the neck to put in place. Some bad scandals, some jail time and a quite abrupt turning away from the SNP is my guess.

    But not to anything that looks like it might be Tories in disguise. A new Tartan-clad social democrat party would be my guess, one that appeals to both LibDems and Tories with quite a few ex-SLAB and SNPers who see a need for change climbing aboard. The interesting question will be - is it a party that will want to join the EU? But they will have the benefit of quite a few years to see how the wind is blowing on that. (Implicit in that is that I don't expect the SNP to apply to join straight away - there will be a huge debate about the pros and cons. There will be plenty who don't want to swap the choke-hold of Westminster for the choke-hold of Brussels....)

    I don't agree. I think the SNP will split very soon after independence.

    Also - EFTA is another option. And a credible interim one.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,386

    Looked like a good piece but I'm afraid I gave up on the third or fourth paragraph. Too long, too wordy.

    It's not exactly War and Peace.

    I thought it was just long enough to make its argument.
    Criticisms of the articles here being too long consistently astound me. Who can be bothered to log on to a political betting site a couple of days after a coup in Washington yet finds two minutes reading something very well written and argued a bit too much? And then makes that public!
    Yes. Great header David, spot on and well argued. Given that you're covering the whole breadth of Trump's behaviour before and after the 2020 elections, I found your piece remarkably succinct.

    I think it's now pretty clear that Trump would have acted more directly if he was sure he could have got away with it, and that it was only a cowardly fear of the personal consequences of failure that caused him to distance himself from what he was trying to instigate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377
    Foss said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    If true that could destroy SNP chances of a Holyrood majority in May and that would add to pressure on Sturgeon to resign
    That’d be good for Starmer and mixed for Johnson.
    Yes, Starmer needs Scottish MPs to become PM.

    Johnson cannot stay PM if the Union breaks up but he is most likely to win another majority in England and Wales alone and minus Scotland
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,111
    Scott_xP said:
    Trying to keep pointing at the court case which cleared Salmond completely and found Government broke the law does not seem a stable defence, surely she has better than that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,111

    Bye Folks. Wife has hospital out-patients appointment this afternoon. Nice afternoon for a drive, though!

    Good luck OKC, not a good time to be going near hospitals.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,111
    HYUFD said:

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    If true that could destroy SNP chances of a Holyrood majority in May and that would add to pressure on Sturgeon to resign
    All Yes voters will be SNP for sure , so a majority is almost guaranteed, only competition is for the losers seats.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 13,182
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    Noted elsewhere, the debate is raging over which of them is telling lies, while the obvious truth would be that both of them are
    I honestly think there are two options.
    1. She goes now.
    2. She stays as 'caretaker' to 'see Covid through' but promises to make way for a new leader at some predetermined point. I don't see an option 3 where she survives. But perhaps I'm totally wrong.
    Given her evidence and that of her husband so far, she has been involved deeply and lied repeatedly. Salmond may have been a womaniser but as shown in court the stitch up was either fabricated or consensual. People may not like that but it means they don't like millions that are doing similar at work every day. Key point is she tried to have him jailed to stop him coming back into politics , failed miserably and then tried to cover up and lied to parliament etc.
    She is a goner , no UN job in Geneva for her as Boris will welch for sure.
    Do you really think it was all to stop him coming back in to politics?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,369

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    Can someone be impeached once out of office? If not, the time to do so is very short.
    From what people are saying, yes they can, but I think the articles of impeachment have to be moved while they are in office

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    Can someone be impeached once out of office? If not, the time to do so is very short.
    From what people are saying, yes they can, but I think the articles of impeachment have to be moved while they are in office
    Technically, moving the articles is being impeached
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,377
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    If true that could destroy SNP chances of a Holyrood majority in May and that would add to pressure on Sturgeon to resign
    All Yes voters will be SNP for sure , so a majority is almost guaranteed, only competition is for the losers seats.
    Yes voters only get the SNP to 45%, less than the 46.5% they got in 2016.

    These damaging allegations could see some No voters switch from SNP back to SLab and SCon
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 17,156

    kinabalu said:

    On topic: I agree with most of what David writes. I've been right about Trump in most respects but I was mistaken about the motive for his post election antics. I thought it was about positioning for post White House. That he knew he had to go but wanted to do it with his aura of "winner" intact for his fanbase. Not so. It was a serious effort to stay in power. The good news is it failed - proving in case proof were needed why an independent judiciary is crucial for any democracy - and the even better news is that this latest grandiose overreach has surely finished him and his clan in politics.

    Don't write him off yet!
    :smile: - I'm afraid I have and will do it once more for the pot.

    "him off"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,887
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Disagree, Hawley is young, articulate, very intelligent, Standford and Yale degrees, taught at St Paul's, a former lawyer and now probably the most telegenic figurehead for the Trumpite GOP base once Trump leaves office
    You omitted insurrectionist, confirmed anti-democrat, and fomenter of murderous mobs who is bleeding support, funding and credibility.
    Glad you rate him so highly.
    Better make sure he's squeaky clean for the "War on Terror 2" first.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 39,210
    Excellent article, David. Chills the blood, doesn't it?

    I think the future of American democracy rests as much on an internal battle within the Republican Party as it does executive-led action by the new Biden administration.

    America is so partisan now each side needs to put its own house in order first before it will be able to sensibly engage again with the other.
  • FossFoss Posts: 198
    edited January 9
    HYUFD said:

    Foss said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    If true that could destroy SNP chances of a Holyrood majority in May and that would add to pressure on Sturgeon to resign
    That’d be good for Starmer and mixed for Johnson.
    Yes, Starmer needs Scottish MPs to become PM.

    Johnson cannot stay PM if the Union breaks up but he is most likely to win another majority in England and Wales alone and minus Scotland
    Another 1 or 2 percent on Labour’s polling also helps to defang the far left’s claims that the centrist is failing to challenge the Tories and that he should be replaced.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 39,210

    FPT: "The SNP are less likely to enjoy their current hegemony post independence. I can even imagine a (rebranded) Scottish Conservative party being in government post independence."

    I don't buy that. If Scotland is going to be independent, then surely the expression of that is ensuring it remains something very different to what they have now - a Tory Government. The SNP will ride the wave of delivery for a decade before it all gets horribly incestuous, with a chumocracy that even the Westminster Tories would never have the neck to put in place. Some bad scandals, some jail time and a quite abrupt turning away from the SNP is my guess.

    But not to anything that looks like it might be Tories in disguise. A new Tartan-clad social democrat party would be my guess, one that appeals to both LibDems and Tories with quite a few ex-SLAB and SNPers who see a need for change climbing aboard. The interesting question will be - is it a party that will want to join the EU? But they will have the benefit of quite a few years to see how the wind is blowing on that. (Implicit in that is that I don't expect the SNP to apply to join straight away - there will be a huge debate about the pros and cons. There will be plenty who don't want to swap the choke-hold of Westminster for the choke-hold of Brussels....)

    I think posters like @malcolmg would vote for an independent Scottish centre-right party.

    Probably called the Freedom Party, or something similar (maybe with extra e's in the middle for the full Gibson).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 893

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/hiroshima-non-amour/

    Link.
    Ooof. That is quite punchy,

    Either Sturgeon or Salmond will have to retire from politics: it is a duel a l'outrance.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 24,349

    Scott_xP said:

    I think PB is rather missing the point - what's happening in Scotland could have real implications for UK politics and betting. Is there a market for Sturgeon exit? The Wings Over Scotland site has Alex Salmond's full evidence and it is explosive to say the least. I don't see how Sturgeon stays.

    Noted elsewhere, the debate is raging over which of them is telling lies, while the obvious truth would be that both of them are
    I honestly think there are two options.
    1. She goes now.
    2. She stays as 'caretaker' to 'see Covid through' but promises to make way for a new leader at some predetermined point. I don't see an option 3 where she survives. But perhaps I'm totally wrong.
    How's your record so far?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,146
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    A good piece but I am not sure that there is much more to say about this.

    Sadly it'll rumble on for a long time, as actions are needed - David is right that the shambles cannot disguise he wanted, somehow, to overturn the election. Then theres post presidency legal action. He'll be with us forever
    I think that he will be impeached and this time the Senate will convict. The result is that he will be banned from public office and that will take some of the heat out of this. Its a lot less likely that he will see jail time but he certainly deserves to.
    Banning him from office should be the key objective.

    Very good piece Mr Herdson. It's pretty obvious that Trump was intent on overturning the result of the election from the outset yet he still has his apologists desperately trying to blame somebody else. I really have nothing but contempt for his apologists.
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