This week marks an investment milestone. My equity portfolio has now passed an average 10% growth over the last decade. It is notable though that 50% of that is in the last year, so not clear evidence of investing genius, apart from cashing out in Feb, and buying back in April.
Notably though, my best performing stocks are mostly those that do well when China does well. ANTO, RIO, PRU etc. Despite events in HK both HSBA and STAN have surged this week. Considering how buggered things are here, in Europe and the USA, it is quite bonkers how well equities have recovered. Expectation of money printing is part of it, but clearly markets expect China and the West Pacific region generally to be the engine of economic recovery for the world.
In that environment, I cannot see any real measures being agreed that economically punish China, whatever lip service is given.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
30s Germany was awesome for foreigners who just wanted to do business. You had to ignore few things, but hey, the opportunities in advertising and fashion......
Why should I be exposed to the tweets of someone who doesn't know his "their" from his "there"?
I see you have got your priorities right.
If somebody in the media wants to make a case to persuade me of their point, I expect them to show basic competence in using the tools of their trade. Or I start to wonder if maybe they are just as sloppy in their use of facts...
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
"to my supporters, our journey is only just beginning" - he's going to flee
As to the various pardons being thrown about as ideas - none of the names suggested have as yet even been formally accused of a crime. I know that Ford "pardoned" Nixon but there was an actual FBI investigation ongoing.
For Trump to pardon his sons and laughably himself he is conceding that "the crime must have been committed". He is conceding that all of them are criminals. Mad as he is, will he actually do this? Perhaps issue them in the context of their insurrection and sedition which is self-evident.
Time to Go Donald. Pack your bags, your remaining days in your luxury Scottish golf resort won't be so bad. And if the heat there gets too much, your friend Vladimir will put you up.
Why should I be exposed to the tweets of someone who doesn't know his "their" from his "there"?
I see you have got your priorities right.
If somebody in the media wants to make a case to persuade me of their point, I expect them to show basic competence in using the tools of their trade. Or I start to wonder if maybe they are just as sloppy in their use of facts...
Absolute bollocks. You never get things wrong? You are just deflecting from the main message.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
If by "Western democracy" you mean the apartheid regime in South Africa and the Smith regime in Rhodesia, no it wasn't suitable for Africans. There again, in most cases neither was what came next.
And it isn't just black people, all non-chinese are discriminated against, even whiteys. Any dispute that requires inacting with the police or other authorities, even Westerners, good luck if your dispute is with somebody who is appears "Chinese", they won't believe you over the other guy.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
No. European Colonial powers taught the first generation of African leaders everything they needed to know about greed, genocide and economic pillage.
Worth noting how prevalent democracy is now, at least in the 50% of Africa that is majority Christian.
And it isn't just black people, all non-chinese are discriminated against, even whiteys. Any dispute that requires inacting with the police or other authorities, even Westerners, good luck if your dispute is with somebody who is appears "Chinese", they won't believe you over the other guy.
"to my supporters, our journey is only just beginning" - he's going to flee
As to the various pardons being thrown about as ideas - none of the names suggested have as yet even been formally accused of a crime. I know that Ford "pardoned" Nixon but there was an actual FBI investigation ongoing.
For Trump to pardon his sons and laughably himself he is conceding that "the crime must have been committed". He is conceding that all of them are criminals. Mad as he is, will he actually do this? Perhaps issue them in the context of their insurrection and sedition which is self-evident.
Time to Go Donald. Pack your bags, your remaining days in your luxury Scottish golf resort won't be so bad. And if the heat there gets too much, your friend Vladimir will put you up.
"to my supporters, our journey is only just beginning" - he's going to flee
As to the various pardons being thrown about as ideas - none of the names suggested have as yet even been formally accused of a crime. I know that Ford "pardoned" Nixon but there was an actual FBI investigation ongoing.
For Trump to pardon his sons and laughably himself he is conceding that "the crime must have been committed". He is conceding that all of them are criminals. Mad as he is, will he actually do this? Perhaps issue them in the context of their insurrection and sedition which is self-evident.
Time to Go Donald. Pack your bags, your remaining days in your luxury Scottish golf resort won't be so bad. And if the heat there gets too much, your friend Vladimir will put you up.
Scotland for a stopover, and then somewhere out of extradition reach. If he can come before Sturgeon's aware of any of it all, he can just pass through.
Trump's in a bind over whether to attempt a self pardon. I mean it admits... criminality if it's a general one, same for a specific one - and admitting to treason won't look good. He's also at the mercy of the Supreme Court interpretation of the pardon power.
The speech indicates to my mind that he won't go for it, I might be wrong though
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Is like for Westerners who don't ask any questions, keep themselves mostly to other ex-pats and don't step outside a certain set of social boundaries.
There are two good youtube channals of an South African and American who moved there many years ago, speak fluent Chinese and married to Chinese ladies. They explain the situations.of.what life in China is like really well, the positives and the many negatives.
Serpantza? Well worth checking out for an insight into the culture over there.
Visited before Covid kicked off. There's certainly a buzz and confidence about the place, and in the cities at least it feels like the future (brings to mind what I imagine Japan was like in the 80's). I'm sure life for a foreigner, or a middle class ethnic Han local isn't all that bad (although the general competitiveness for well paid jobs, and price of housing in cities sounds brutal).
I personally found the overt surveillance a bit menacing, but it's justified on the grounds of security and I guess it is accepted on that basis - no different to over here in some ways.
Why should I be exposed to the tweets of someone who doesn't know his "their" from his "there"?
I see you have got your priorities right.
If somebody in the media wants to make a case to persuade me of their point, I expect them to show basic competence in using the tools of their trade. Or I start to wonder if maybe they are just as sloppy in their use of facts...
Absolute bollocks. You never get things wrong? You are just deflecting from the main message.
I know the difference between their and there but I have certainly typed it wrong numerous times. It does not invalidate the content. You either come over as a jobs worth pedantic (which I don't think is the case) or just deflecting because you can't respond to the point being made.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
Boris Johnson, of course, has made clear he does not believe Africans are capable of governing themselves.
"The problem is not that we were once in charge, but that we are not in charge any more."
It was a really poor coup attempt. Trump remains Commander-in-Chief, if he had planned a proper coup, using Flynn as a conduit to the military, surely there would have been many willing takers, and he could have done much, much better.
We really just have to thank the Lord that this buffoon is as competent at coups as he is at everything else but the evidence coming out of a deliberate lack of preparations against a potential spark point in his own rally is, in my opinion, prima facie evidence of treason.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Is like for Westerners who don't ask any questions, keep themselves mostly to other ex-pats and don't step outside a certain set of social boundaries.
There are two good youtube channals of an South African and American who moved there many years ago, speak fluent Chinese and married to Chinese ladies. They explain the situations.of.what life in China is like really well, the positives and the many negatives.
I backpacked China in 2003 for just under 3 months. Spitting was a bigger problem than anything political at that time
This week marks an investment milestone. My equity portfolio has now passed an average 10% growth over the last decade. It is notable though that 50% of that is in the last year, so not clear evidence of investing genius, apart from cashing out in Feb, and buying back in April.
Notably though, my best performing stocks are mostly those that do well when China does well. ANTO, RIO, PRU etc. Despite events in HK both HSBA and STAN have surged this week. Considering how buggered things are here, in Europe and the USA, it is quite bonkers how well equities have recovered. Expectation of money printing is part of it, but clearly markets expect China and the West Pacific region generally to be the engine of economic recovery for the world.
In that environment, I cannot see any real measures being agreed that economically punish China, whatever lip service is given.
I was going to ask, financially minded PB'ers, wtf is going on with the markets at the moment. Specifically, Tesla and Bitcoin. As a layperson it looks like we're in bubble territory to me, although I'm reminded of that line about markets staying irrational longer than one can stay solvent. And it does seem irrational (or maybe I'm just bitter, having not got on board early enough... sitting in the sidelines in cash.)
There is a rather fundamental problem - the deal the UK has signed up to is unworkable. There is a growing pile of factual evidence (as opposed to the mountain of factual explanations before as to why this would happen) of this happening and reports of logistics and industry people realising that there won't be any "common sense" applied to untangle it.
The UK has signed an unworkable treaty and both sides appear to be saying "this is the treaty". How long until the UK reopens negotiations? To seek "concessions" from the forriners who outrageously have gummed up our economy with their barriers to trade which we demanded.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
If by "Western democracy" you mean the apartheid regime in South Africa and the Smith regime in Rhodesia, no it wasn't suitable for Africans. There again, in most cases neither was what came next.
The interesting bit was that South Africa "was different" according to the same people. One person One vote *was* a moral issue there.
But demanding democracy in Ghana was racist, apparently.
Similar attitudes to towards calls for multi party democracy in Eastern Europe.
The suddenly in 1989 a bunch of people discovered that democracy was a universal thing....
"to my supporters, our journey is only just beginning" - he's going to flee
As to the various pardons being thrown about as ideas - none of the names suggested have as yet even been formally accused of a crime. I know that Ford "pardoned" Nixon but there was an actual FBI investigation ongoing.
For Trump to pardon his sons and laughably himself he is conceding that "the crime must have been committed". He is conceding that all of them are criminals. Mad as he is, will he actually do this? Perhaps issue them in the context of their insurrection and sedition which is self-evident.
Time to Go Donald. Pack your bags, your remaining days in your luxury Scottish golf resort won't be so bad. And if the heat there gets too much, your friend Vladimir will put you up.
Nippy isn't going to let him into Scotland.
Perhaps Putin could let him rename the state housing block where Edward Snowdon lives, Trump Tower, Moscow, and Trump could stay there.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
I have been to China many times. The ordinary Chinese have a standard of living they could not have dreamed about even 30 years ago. There is no mass discontent, but there are grumblings. These will get louder as the older generations - that have known intense poverty and genuine hunger - die away. The Communist party knows this so is acting now to stifle as much dissent as possible. I could never live in China as a Westerner who has lived a free life in what is, by comparison, a clean environment. But I am the exception rather than the rule in this world. When you have known what the Chinese have known within living memory you will put up with a hell of a lot not to have it back.
Yes, that's a good summary of my impressions too, from multiple visits and discussions with Chinese people living in Britain who are generally not fans of the Chinese authorities. It's an autocracy that is fiercely intolerant of organised internal dissent (it doesn't usually crack down on individual grumbles, unlike, say, Mao and the Red Guards) and of foreign criticism, and as Cyclefree says the treatment of the Uighurs is intolerable. But it's delivered a decent standard of living for enormous numbers of people who were used to grinding poverty and remember actual starvation in their parents' generation. If you're mainstream Chinese and not especially critical of the Government, things are probably going quite well for you.
I'm wary of some of the posturing by governments such as Trump's which use the "Chinese menace" to look strong. It doesn't mean there isn't a degree of menace, but if we focused on the Uighur issue I'd be more comfortable than a generalised anti-Chinese stance.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
No. European Colonial powers taught the first generation of African leaders everything they needed to know about greed, genocide and economic pillage.
Worth noting how prevalent democracy is now, at least in the 50% of Africa that is majority Christian.
Ah yes, the "I need to drive tanks over my people, because of colonialism" theory.
Perhaps Donald Trump is just acting out the repressed memories of 1812?
"to my supporters, our journey is only just beginning" - he's going to flee
As to the various pardons being thrown about as ideas - none of the names suggested have as yet even been formally accused of a crime. I know that Ford "pardoned" Nixon but there was an actual FBI investigation ongoing.
For Trump to pardon his sons and laughably himself he is conceding that "the crime must have been committed". He is conceding that all of them are criminals. Mad as he is, will he actually do this? Perhaps issue them in the context of their insurrection and sedition which is self-evident.
Time to Go Donald. Pack your bags, your remaining days in your luxury Scottish golf resort won't be so bad. And if the heat there gets too much, your friend Vladimir will put you up.
The Ford pardon of Nixon was for "any crimes he may have committed" which doesn't concede that any actually have been.
And I think you miss the point that Trump is shameless; conceding that a crime has been committed wouldn't worry him, provided the crime had no adverse consequences for him.
One point I saw made the other day is that pardoning others is a two-edged sword because they are safe from the consequences of admitting a crime for which they have been pardoned, which means they cannot plead the 5th amendment (right not to self-incriminate) if asked in future to give evidence against Trump.
There is a rather fundamental problem - the deal the UK has signed up to is unworkable. There is a growing pile of factual evidence (as opposed to the mountain of factual explanations before as to why this would happen) of this happening and reports of logistics and industry people realising that there won't be any "common sense" applied to untangle it.
The UK has signed an unworkable treaty and both sides appear to be saying "this is the treaty". How long until the UK reopens negotiations? To seek "concessions" from the forriners who outrageously have gummed up our economy with their barriers to trade which we demanded.
As we were in the EU up till the 31st December 2019 de jure and 31st December 2020 de facto joining again would be simple enough on a technical level (We might have to accept € introduction but thems the breaks) Politically it's a trickier sell - not every leaver has had your damascene conversion.
The Trump coup will go down in history as like the ending of Finding Nemo.
There was a clear plan: 1. Lay down a wall of lies to weaponise the idea the election was stolen 2. Seek legal respite to be turned down (because baseless) proving that "they" have rigged the powers of the state against the rightful victors 3. Whip up revolutionary fervour amongst your supporters. Tell them that Jan 6th is The Day 4. Remove all the people from the DoD who can stop you and replace with your agents 5. Pressurise the GOP saying that unless they do YOUR bidding then your supporters - their voters - will have them 6. Stage the coup. Bring everyone to town. Tell them its Trial by Combat. Demand they March on the Capitol. Have your agents in Congress slow proceedings so that the electoral college isn't actually counted. Giuliani's botched phone call is key here - delay things at least until tomorrow. 7. Storm the Capitol. As the nice lady complaining about free mace in the face said, its a revolution! 8. Refuse to sanction the National Guard to come and regain order. The disorder gets worse. 9. Declare Martial Law. Have your agents inside the DoD direct the National Guard to suppress dissent. 10. Arrest the conspirators - Pelosi, Schumer, AOC. 11. Rule by decree until enough confusion exists about the electoral college result for you to simply toss it aside.
Its insane. It would never have worked. It is laughably naive. But they did it. The problem is that they got to step 7 and it fell apart. Like the end of Finding Nemo there was a Revolution! They Stormed the Capitol! And having got inside and sat in the chamber, the dumb bastards now facing a 10 stretch inside thanks to Trump's own law asked themselves "Now What?"
Storming the Capitol itself does nothing. You needed to be storming it and then holding it long enough for Martial Law to seem reasonable. "We're staying here all night" was the word from inside, reported on CNN. The problem is that some berk managed to call the National Guard. As soon as an army of soldiers appeared outside "its a Revolution!" seemed like a bad idea and "we the people, bitches!" realised it may be a better idea to leave. Because what happens to failed revolutionaries? They don't get mace in the face. They get bullets in the face.
Like most things associated with the dying months of the Trump administration it descended into farce. But it absolutely was serious even if there was little chance of succeeding. Trump and his crime family will almost certainly face the music. But it is wider than that. All of the elected representatives who participated in their part of the coup also need to face justice. Baseless objections to "10 states" to delay certification of the result long enough for the coup to take effect is participating in a coup.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
If by "Western democracy" you mean the apartheid regime in South Africa and the Smith regime in Rhodesia, no it wasn't suitable for Africans. There again, in most cases neither was what came next.
The interesting bit was that South Africa "was different" according to the same people. One person One vote *was* a moral issue there.
But demanding democracy in Ghana was racist, apparently.
Similar attitudes to towards calls for multi party democracy in Eastern Europe.
The suddenly in 1989 a bunch of people discovered that democracy was a universal thing....
I am not sure what your point is here.
Post colonian chaos in Africa has been economically catastrophic and violent and industrial scale corruption is depressingly common.
Post colonian chaos has moved colonialism full circle (back on topic) and allowed backdoor Chinese colonialism into much of Africa. It is hard to pinpoint what is worst and what is best. The apartheid regimes of the recent past were most definitely not in the "best" category.
This week marks an investment milestone. My equity portfolio has now passed an average 10% growth over the last decade. It is notable though that 50% of that is in the last year, so not clear evidence of investing genius, apart from cashing out in Feb, and buying back in April.
Notably though, my best performing stocks are mostly those that do well when China does well. ANTO, RIO, PRU etc. Despite events in HK both HSBA and STAN have surged this week. Considering how buggered things are here, in Europe and the USA, it is quite bonkers how well equities have recovered. Expectation of money printing is part of it, but clearly markets expect China and the West Pacific region generally to be the engine of economic recovery for the world.
In that environment, I cannot see any real measures being agreed that economically punish China, whatever lip service is given.
I was going to ask, financially minded PB'ers, wtf is going on with the markets at the moment. Specifically, Tesla and Bitcoin. As a layperson it looks like we're in bubble territory to me, although I'm reminded of that line about markets staying irrational longer than one can stay solvent. And it does seem irrational (or maybe I'm just bitter, having not got on board early enough... sitting in the sidelines in cash.)
It's about money chasing the "next big thing" multiplied by a *perceived* lack of stable invent opportunities - yes, a bubble.
Excellent thread, Cyclefree. Simply superb. I agree with every word.
China under the CCP represents a clear and present danger to the future freedom, liberty and security of humanity. All of us.
Forget Brexit. Forget Trump. Forget the EU. Forget Wokeism. Forget Sindyref. Forget any of our relentless introspective obsessions. Forget the tedious mudslinging we all through at each other each and every day. And I'd argue this is even important in winning the ultimate battle against climate change.
This should be the *number one* focus of Western foreign policy, now, with the same level of attention and focus that the Soviet Union had from 1948 to 1991. On a global level.
It's that serious.
We're in for the long haul and, if we want a future world of freedom and democracy, and if we want to stop our independent economies and securities being destroyed, we need to stop ourselves being slowly boiled in the saucepan.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
I have been to China many times. The ordinary Chinese have a standard of living they could not have dreamed about even 30 years ago. There is no mass discontent, but there are grumblings. These will get louder as the older generations - that have known intense poverty and genuine hunger - die away. The Communist party knows this so is acting now to stifle as much dissent as possible. I could never live in China as a Westerner who has lived a free life in what is, by comparison, a clean environment. But I am the exception rather than the rule in this world. When you have known what the Chinese have known within living memory you will put up with a hell of a lot not to have it back.
Yes, that's a good summary of my impressions too, from multiple visits and discussions with Chinese people living in Britain who are generally not fans of the Chinese authorities. It's an autocracy that is fiercely intolerant of organised internal dissent (it doesn't usually crack down on individual grumbles, unlike, say, Mao and the Red Guards) and of foreign criticism, and as Cyclefree says the treatment of the Uighurs is intolerable. But it's delivered a decent standard of living for enormous numbers of people who were used to grinding poverty and remember actual starvation in their parents' generation. If you're mainstream Chinese and not especially critical of the Government, things are probably going quite well for you.
I'm wary of some of the posturing by governments such as Trump's which use the "Chinese menace" to look strong. It doesn't mean there isn't a degree of menace, but if we focused on the Uighur issue I'd be more comfortable than a generalised anti-Chinese stance.
The treatment of the Uighurs isn't the exception though....it is just a clear example of what the Chinese state are willing to do. See Hong Kong....See COVID cover up, silencing the whistleblower, disappearing of journalists that asked questions, happy to take our PPE, then block many exports and let shoddy and defective life saving goods be supplied to the West.
Another huge issue is they have stolen loads of western IP, then the chinese state manipulate their currency in order to undercut western company prices using tech based on the stolen IP, putting western companies out of business and making us reliant on the Chinese.
Challenging header. I would break the charge sheet into three: Uighurs, Hong Kong and not following international norms.
What is happening in Xinjiang is chilling. The only valid response here, I think, is for the rest of the world to throw the genocide book at China. Not least to make clear to people in China what is going on.
Unfortunately for those of us who prefer liberal democracy to Chinese style governance and Hong Kongers themselves, the RoW isn't in a particularly strong position to call out China on Hong Kong. China always reserved the right to itself of imposing whatever system of government it wants on Hong Kong and it was always likely to merge HK into the Chinese political system sooner or later. The reason why it held off for so long was because the leadership had its eye on the bigger prize of Taiwan. The RoW maybe can more effectively focus on Taiwan than HK.
On international norms there is something of a negotiation. Engage where norms are met, create costs where they are not. China is big enough that it will influence those norms however.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
If by "Western democracy" you mean the apartheid regime in South Africa and the Smith regime in Rhodesia, no it wasn't suitable for Africans. There again, in most cases neither was what came next.
The interesting bit was that South Africa "was different" according to the same people. One person One vote *was* a moral issue there.
But demanding democracy in Ghana was racist, apparently.
Similar attitudes to towards calls for multi party democracy in Eastern Europe.
The suddenly in 1989 a bunch of people discovered that democracy was a universal thing....
I am not sure what your point is here.
Post colonian chaos in Africa has been economically catastrophic and violent and industrial scale corruption is depressingly common.
Post colonian chaos has moved colonialism full circle (back on topic) and allowed backdoor Chinese colonialism into much of Africa. It is hard to pinpoint what is worst and what is best. The apartheid regimes of the recent past were most definitely not in the "best" category.
Sigh
During the 1980s it was utterly standard for the UK hard left to decry the universality of human rights, democracy etc.
They applied this to Africa - where they made all kind of excuses for the scumbags looting the place. They applied this to Europe - where they declared that Russia had a right to rule Eastern Europe. They applied this to Russia - where they were building a Better World.
Post 1989 they suddenly discovered a love for democracy.
That's a good speech, I wonder who wrote it because one thing is for sure; that scaly fucker didn't.
I reckon Pence told him it was this or the 25A,
People who rob a bank don't get to give the money back and say it was all a misunderstanding. That's not the way it works.
Indeed, if I incited a riot and as a result a policeman indirectly, or directly died, I would be arrested, remanded subject to an investigation, tried and if convicted would go to jail and for a long time. Why should Trump be treated differently?
Why should I be exposed to the tweets of someone who doesn't know his "their" from his "there"?
Blimey, now we have grammar snowflakery.
There are standards.
Although, it seems, not in what Scott_P subjects us to in his blizzard of retweets. Any old crap will do....
Speaking as someone who has never made a tpyo in his life, I agree their can be no doubt whatsoever that Kelso's report cannot be trusted (especially if it contains a message you really don't want to hear).
Excellent thread, Cyclefree. Simply superb. I agree with every word.
China under the CCP represents a clear and present danger to the future freedom, liberty and security of humanity. All of us.
Forget Brexit. Forget Trump. Forget the EU. Forget Wokeism. Forget Sindyref. Forget any of our relentless introspective obsessions. Forget the tedious mudslinging we all through at each other each and every day. And I'd argue this is even important in winning the ultimate battle against climate change.
This should be the *number one* focus of Western foreign policy, now, with the same level of attention and focus that the Soviet Union had from 1948 to 1991. On a global level.
It's that serious.
We're in for the long haul and, if we want a future world of freedom and democracy, and if we want to stop our independent economies and securities being destroyed, we need to stop ourselves being slowly boiled in the saucepan.
Today. No excuses. No equivocation.
I'd rather live under CCP rule than a tory government. At least the Chicoms are competent.
The Trump coup will go down in history as like the ending of Finding Nemo.
There was a clear plan: 1. Lay down a wall of lies to weaponise the idea the election was stolen 2. Seek legal respite to be turned down (because baseless) proving that "they" have rigged the powers of the state against the rightful victors 3. Whip up revolutionary fervour amongst your supporters. Tell them that Jan 6th is The Day 4. Remove all the people from the DoD who can stop you and replace with your agents 5. Pressurise the GOP saying that unless they do YOUR bidding then your supporters - their voters - will have them 6. Stage the coup. Bring everyone to town. Tell them its Trial by Combat. Demand they March on the Capitol. Have your agents in Congress slow proceedings so that the electoral college isn't actually counted. Giuliani's botched phone call is key here - delay things at least until tomorrow. 7. Storm the Capitol. As the nice lady complaining about free mace in the face said, its a revolution! 8. Refuse to sanction the National Guard to come and regain order. The disorder gets worse. 9. Declare Martial Law. Have your agents inside the DoD direct the National Guard to suppress dissent. 10. Arrest the conspirators - Pelosi, Schumer, AOC. 11. Rule by decree until enough confusion exists about the electoral college result for you to simply toss it aside.
Its insane. It would never have worked. It is laughably naive. But they did it. The problem is that they got to step 7 and it fell apart. Like the end of Finding Nemo there was a Revolution! They Stormed the Capitol! And having got inside and sat in the chamber, the dumb bastards now facing a 10 stretch inside thanks to Trump's own law asked themselves "Now What?"
Storming the Capitol itself does nothing. You needed to be storming it and then holding it long enough for Martial Law to seem reasonable. "We're staying here all night" was the word from inside, reported on CNN. The problem is that some berk managed to call the National Guard. As soon as an army of soldiers appeared outside "its a Revolution!" seemed like a bad idea and "we the people, bitches!" realised it may be a better idea to leave. Because what happens to failed revolutionaries? They don't get mace in the face. They get bullets in the face.
Like most things associated with the dying months of the Trump administration it descended into farce. But it absolutely was serious even if there was little chance of succeeding. Trump and his crime family will almost certainly face the music. But it is wider than that. All of the elected representatives who participated in their part of the coup also need to face justice. Baseless objections to "10 states" to delay certification of the result long enough for the coup to take effect is participating in a coup.
"The problem is that some berk managed to call the National Guard."
iirc that was Pence, although the mayor of DC had already done so I think.
That's a good speech, I wonder who wrote it because one thing is for sure; that scaly fucker didn't.
I reckon Pence told him it was this or the 25A,
Not a great day for Russell Brand who went in front of the camera to describe Trump's magnificence though I doubt it'll do him any harm. No one emplys him for his insight. Steve Hilton though is an altogether different kettle of fish. He chose to use his selling talents doing an infomercial for Trump on Fox. To describe it as a eulogy doesn't begin to describe it
Excellent thread, Cyclefree. Simply superb. I agree with every word.
China under the CCP represents a clear and present danger to the future freedom, liberty and security of humanity. All of us.
Forget Brexit. Forget Trump. Forget the EU. Forget Wokeism. Forget Sindyref. Forget any of our relentless introspective obsessions. Forget the tedious mudslinging we all through at each other each and every day. And I'd argue this is even important in winning the ultimate battle against climate change.
This should be the *number one* focus of Western foreign policy, now, with the same level of attention and focus that the Soviet Union had from 1948 to 1991. On a global level.
It's that serious.
We're in for the long haul and, if we want a future world of freedom and democracy, and if we want to stop our independent economies and securities being destroyed, we need to stop ourselves being slowly boiled in the saucepan.
Today. No excuses. No equivocation.
Brexit is part of the problem, though. Standing up to China means investing in the infrastructure of our country and the education of our people as well as creating and maintaining strong political and trade links with like-minded countries. Instead, we have been engaging in an idealogical and highly damaging disengagement with our natural partners. China can only be laughing at this.
Excellent thread, Cyclefree. Simply superb. I agree with every word.
China under the CCP represents a clear and present danger to the future freedom, liberty and security of humanity. All of us.
Forget Brexit. Forget Trump. Forget the EU. Forget Wokeism. Forget Sindyref. Forget any of our relentless introspective obsessions. Forget the tedious mudslinging we all through at each other each and every day. And I'd argue this is even important in winning the ultimate battle against climate change.
This should be the *number one* focus of Western foreign policy, now, with the same level of attention and focus that the Soviet Union had from 1948 to 1991. On a global level.
It's that serious.
We're in for the long haul and, if we want a future world of freedom and democracy, and if we want to stop our independent economies and securities being destroyed, we need to stop ourselves being slowly boiled in the saucepan.
Today. No excuses. No equivocation.
The strategic thinking (probably starting with Kissenger) was let's open our markets to them and give us a cheap source of labour (tick). That will make them capitalists (tick). This will create a bourgeois middle class that will increase the pressure for democratic reform (err, some initial success under Deng, not so much under Xi). This will result in the overturn of the CCP (nope).
As a strategic plan it had the typical flaw of assuming that the person to whom the plan is directed will not react in ways that are not in the west's interest. Its been a flaw in American plans since Grant and the Civil War. They always work on the basis that they are going to do things to people without thinking through how those people might respond or even act on their own initiative.
This week marks an investment milestone. My equity portfolio has now passed an average 10% growth over the last decade. It is notable though that 50% of that is in the last year, so not clear evidence of investing genius, apart from cashing out in Feb, and buying back in April.
Notably though, my best performing stocks are mostly those that do well when China does well. ANTO, RIO, PRU etc. Despite events in HK both HSBA and STAN have surged this week. Considering how buggered things are here, in Europe and the USA, it is quite bonkers how well equities have recovered. Expectation of money printing is part of it, but clearly markets expect China and the West Pacific region generally to be the engine of economic recovery for the world.
In that environment, I cannot see any real measures being agreed that economically punish China, whatever lip service is given.
I was going to ask, financially minded PB'ers, wtf is going on with the markets at the moment. Specifically, Tesla and Bitcoin. As a layperson it looks like we're in bubble territory to me, although I'm reminded of that line about markets staying irrational longer than one can stay solvent. And it does seem irrational (or maybe I'm just bitter, having not got on board early enough... sitting in the sidelines in cash.)
It's about money chasing the "next big thing" multiplied by a *perceived* lack of stable invent opportunities - yes, a bubble.
My understanding another driver of the BitCoin price is bigger investors who believe the West will react to post COVID economic slump by more QA, further devaluing major currencies and so have been investing heavily in things like BitCoin as a hedge against that.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
If by "Western democracy" you mean the apartheid regime in South Africa and the Smith regime in Rhodesia, no it wasn't suitable for Africans. There again, in most cases neither was what came next.
The interesting bit was that South Africa "was different" according to the same people. One person One vote *was* a moral issue there.
But demanding democracy in Ghana was racist, apparently.
Similar attitudes to towards calls for multi party democracy in Eastern Europe.
The suddenly in 1989 a bunch of people discovered that democracy was a universal thing....
I am not sure what your point is here.
Post colonian chaos in Africa has been economically catastrophic and violent and industrial scale corruption is depressingly common.
Post colonian chaos has moved colonialism full circle (back on topic) and allowed backdoor Chinese colonialism into much of Africa. It is hard to pinpoint what is worst and what is best. The apartheid regimes of the recent past were most definitely not in the "best" category.
Sigh
During the 1980s it was utterly standard for the UK hard left to decry the universality of human rights, democracy etc.
They applied this to Africa - where they made all kind of excuses for the scumbags looting the place. They applied this to Europe - where they declared that Russia had a right to rule Eastern Europe. They applied this to Russia - where they were building a Better World.
Post 1989 they suddenly discovered a love for democracy.
I do apologise for your frustration at my witheringly stupidity.
I was of the centre-left during the time quoted and I do not recognise that as a description of myself. I opposed the Apartheid regime in South Africa and also the Soviet Union. Perhaps you have read too many articles from the Daily Mail. Sigh!
The Trump coup will go down in history as like the ending of Finding Nemo.
There was a clear plan: 1. Lay down a wall of lies to weaponise the idea the election was stolen 2. Seek legal respite to be turned down (because baseless) proving that "they" have rigged the powers of the state against the rightful victors 3. Whip up revolutionary fervour amongst your supporters. Tell them that Jan 6th is The Day 4. Remove all the people from the DoD who can stop you and replace with your agents 5. Pressurise the GOP saying that unless they do YOUR bidding then your supporters - their voters - will have them 6. Stage the coup. Bring everyone to town. Tell them its Trial by Combat. Demand they March on the Capitol. Have your agents in Congress slow proceedings so that the electoral college isn't actually counted. Giuliani's botched phone call is key here - delay things at least until tomorrow. 7. Storm the Capitol. As the nice lady complaining about free mace in the face said, its a revolution! 8. Refuse to sanction the National Guard to come and regain order. The disorder gets worse. 9. Declare Martial Law. Have your agents inside the DoD direct the National Guard to suppress dissent. 10. Arrest the conspirators - Pelosi, Schumer, AOC. 11. Rule by decree until enough confusion exists about the electoral college result for you to simply toss it aside.
Its insane. It would never have worked. It is laughably naive. But they did it. The problem is that they got to step 7 and it fell apart. Like the end of Finding Nemo there was a Revolution! They Stormed the Capitol! And having got inside and sat in the chamber, the dumb bastards now facing a 10 stretch inside thanks to Trump's own law asked themselves "Now What?"
Storming the Capitol itself does nothing. You needed to be storming it and then holding it long enough for Martial Law to seem reasonable. "We're staying here all night" was the word from inside, reported on CNN. The problem is that some berk managed to call the National Guard. As soon as an army of soldiers appeared outside "its a Revolution!" seemed like a bad idea and "we the people, bitches!" realised it may be a better idea to leave. Because what happens to failed revolutionaries? They don't get mace in the face. They get bullets in the face.
Like most things associated with the dying months of the Trump administration it descended into farce. But it absolutely was serious even if there was little chance of succeeding. Trump and his crime family will almost certainly face the music. But it is wider than that. All of the elected representatives who participated in their part of the coup also need to face justice. Baseless objections to "10 states" to delay certification of the result long enough for the coup to take effect is participating in a coup.
Treason doth never prosper: what's the reason? Why, if it prosper, none dare call it treason.
John Harrington
Who, incidentally, invented an early flush toilet according to Wikipedia.
The Trump coup will go down in history as like the ending of Finding Nemo.
There was a clear plan: 1. Lay down a wall of lies to weaponise the idea the election was stolen 2. Seek legal respite to be turned down (because baseless) proving that "they" have rigged the powers of the state against the rightful victors 3. Whip up revolutionary fervour amongst your supporters. Tell them that Jan 6th is The Day 4. Remove all the people from the DoD who can stop you and replace with your agents 5. Pressurise the GOP saying that unless they do YOUR bidding then your supporters - their voters - will have them 6. Stage the coup. Bring everyone to town. Tell them its Trial by Combat. Demand they March on the Capitol. Have your agents in Congress slow proceedings so that the electoral college isn't actually counted. Giuliani's botched phone call is key here - delay things at least until tomorrow. 7. Storm the Capitol. As the nice lady complaining about free mace in the face said, its a revolution! 8. Refuse to sanction the National Guard to come and regain order. The disorder gets worse. 9. Declare Martial Law. Have your agents inside the DoD direct the National Guard to suppress dissent. 10. Arrest the conspirators - Pelosi, Schumer, AOC. 11. Rule by decree until enough confusion exists about the electoral college result for you to simply toss it aside.
Its insane. It would never have worked. It is laughably naive. But they did it. The problem is that they got to step 7 and it fell apart. Like the end of Finding Nemo there was a Revolution! They Stormed the Capitol! And having got inside and sat in the chamber, the dumb bastards now facing a 10 stretch inside thanks to Trump's own law asked themselves "Now What?"
Storming the Capitol itself does nothing. You needed to be storming it and then holding it long enough for Martial Law to seem reasonable. "We're staying here all night" was the word from inside, reported on CNN. The problem is that some berk managed to call the National Guard. As soon as an army of soldiers appeared outside "its a Revolution!" seemed like a bad idea and "we the people, bitches!" realised it may be a better idea to leave. Because what happens to failed revolutionaries? They don't get mace in the face. They get bullets in the face.
Like most things associated with the dying months of the Trump administration it descended into farce. But it absolutely was serious even if there was little chance of succeeding. Trump and his crime family will almost certainly face the music. But it is wider than that. All of the elected representatives who participated in their part of the coup also need to face justice. Baseless objections to "10 states" to delay certification of the result long enough for the coup to take effect is participating in a coup.
Much of this seems all too plausible, but I'm not sure that Trump might have really expected anything like the crucial stages of 10 and 11 to work. He loves creating disorder and chaos just as retribution, as his niece said.
One thing that is really striking, though, is that had this got any further, his months-long preamble of a false election would be as many historians have pointed out, exactly what you'd start your TV broadcast with.
"I'm broadcasting today to tell all Americans that order has been restored ; the true election results have finally been recognised.", etc. "America is back ! "
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
If by "Western democracy" you mean the apartheid regime in South Africa and the Smith regime in Rhodesia, no it wasn't suitable for Africans. There again, in most cases neither was what came next.
The interesting bit was that South Africa "was different" according to the same people. One person One vote *was* a moral issue there.
But demanding democracy in Ghana was racist, apparently.
Similar attitudes to towards calls for multi party democracy in Eastern Europe.
The suddenly in 1989 a bunch of people discovered that democracy was a universal thing....
Who are these fictitious people who you quote from your seemingly fertile imagination? Sources and links please.
A thoroughly depressing header. Hard to see a change in approach to meaningfully go against that odious regime happening in my lifetime.
Has anyone any glimmers of hope that the regime is not as strong as it appears?
Dark dreams everyone.
Sorry about that.
What is even worse is that evil regimes like China, Iran, Russia etc will take comfort from what has been happening in Washington.
I wish I could bring you good news.
That's a powerful indictment, Cyclefree. I think that a declining population of working age will ultimately bring China's economic miracle to a halt, and generate all sorts of internal pressures. Of course, the regime may became even more aggressive as a result.
Yes.
And with a leader other than Xi, I think China would have mellowed into middle age: it would have consumed of more what it produced, it would have got fat and rich and comfortable and keen to avoid changes that might inconvenience it. It would probably have edged slowly and surely towards something that looked like a democracy.
It would, simply, have become a bigger Japan or Singapore or Taiwan.
But instead it has Xi, a man with China's national destiny on his mind. And if growth stumbles, he'll look for external enemies to shore up his regime.
Hmm. I'm not sure it's that simple.
Yes, sure, nasty leaders can make or break a country - Mao, Stalin etc. - but it's the system that's rotten. Our foreign policy should first be focussed on getting rid of Xi, and then gentle reforms in "openness" in the hope this then bears democratic fruit in the long-term.
Jung Chang has written convincingly on how the idea democracy doesn't 'suit' China or the Chinese to be total nonsense, as of course we all know it to be, citing the period in the early 1920s, when it was starting to flower, before the warlords, nationalists and then communists got their hands on it.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
If by "Western democracy" you mean the apartheid regime in South Africa and the Smith regime in Rhodesia, no it wasn't suitable for Africans. There again, in most cases neither was what came next.
The interesting bit was that South Africa "was different" according to the same people. One person One vote *was* a moral issue there.
But demanding democracy in Ghana was racist, apparently.
Similar attitudes to towards calls for multi party democracy in Eastern Europe.
The suddenly in 1989 a bunch of people discovered that democracy was a universal thing....
I am not sure what your point is here.
Post colonian chaos in Africa has been economically catastrophic and violent and industrial scale corruption is depressingly common.
Post colonian chaos has moved colonialism full circle (back on topic) and allowed backdoor Chinese colonialism into much of Africa. It is hard to pinpoint what is worst and what is best. The apartheid regimes of the recent past were most definitely not in the "best" category.
Sigh
During the 1980s it was utterly standard for the UK hard left to decry the universality of human rights, democracy etc.
They applied this to Africa - where they made all kind of excuses for the scumbags looting the place. They applied this to Europe - where they declared that Russia had a right to rule Eastern Europe. They applied this to Russia - where they were building a Better World.
Post 1989 they suddenly discovered a love for democracy.
I do apologise for your frustration at my witheringly stupidity.
I was of the centre-left during the time quoted and I do not recognise that as a description of myself. I opposed the Apartheid regime in South Africa and also the Soviet Union. Perhaps you have read too many articles from the Daily Mail. Sigh!
If you were on the centre-left you were the opposition to these people.
Or perhaps you don't remember - "The longest suicide note in British political history"?
This week marks an investment milestone. My equity portfolio has now passed an average 10% growth over the last decade. It is notable though that 50% of that is in the last year, so not clear evidence of investing genius, apart from cashing out in Feb, and buying back in April.
Notably though, my best performing stocks are mostly those that do well when China does well. ANTO, RIO, PRU etc. Despite events in HK both HSBA and STAN have surged this week. Considering how buggered things are here, in Europe and the USA, it is quite bonkers how well equities have recovered. Expectation of money printing is part of it, but clearly markets expect China and the West Pacific region generally to be the engine of economic recovery for the world.
In that environment, I cannot see any real measures being agreed that economically punish China, whatever lip service is given.
I was going to ask, financially minded PB'ers, wtf is going on with the markets at the moment. Specifically, Tesla and Bitcoin. As a layperson it looks like we're in bubble territory to me, although I'm reminded of that line about markets staying irrational longer than one can stay solvent. And it does seem irrational (or maybe I'm just bitter, having not got on board early enough... sitting in the sidelines in cash.)
It's about money chasing the "next big thing" multiplied by a *perceived* lack of stable invent opportunities - yes, a bubble.
This week marks an investment milestone. My equity portfolio has now passed an average 10% growth over the last decade. It is notable though that 50% of that is in the last year, so not clear evidence of investing genius, apart from cashing out in Feb, and buying back in April.
Notably though, my best performing stocks are mostly those that do well when China does well. ANTO, RIO, PRU etc. Despite events in HK both HSBA and STAN have surged this week. Considering how buggered things are here, in Europe and the USA, it is quite bonkers how well equities have recovered. Expectation of money printing is part of it, but clearly markets expect China and the West Pacific region generally to be the engine of economic recovery for the world.
In that environment, I cannot see any real measures being agreed that economically punish China, whatever lip service is given.
I was going to ask, financially minded PB'ers, wtf is going on with the markets at the moment. Specifically, Tesla and Bitcoin. As a layperson it looks like we're in bubble territory to me, although I'm reminded of that line about markets staying irrational longer than one can stay solvent. And it does seem irrational (or maybe I'm just bitter, having not got on board early enough... sitting in the sidelines in cash.)
It's about money chasing the "next big thing" multiplied by a *perceived* lack of stable invent opportunities - yes, a bubble.
Interest rates are low so where else are you going to put your money?
When inflation kicks in interest rates will start to rise and the bubble will burst. Timing? Your guess is as good as mine. I'd say second half of this year.
There is a rather fundamental problem - the deal the UK has signed up to is unworkable. There is a growing pile of factual evidence (as opposed to the mountain of factual explanations before as to why this would happen) of this happening and reports of logistics and industry people realising that there won't be any "common sense" applied to untangle it.
The UK has signed an unworkable treaty and both sides appear to be saying "this is the treaty". How long until the UK reopens negotiations? To seek "concessions" from the forriners who outrageously have gummed up our economy with their barriers to trade which we demanded.
As we were in the EU up till the 31st December 2019 de jure and 31st December 2020 de facto joining again would be simple enough on a technical level (We might have to accept € introduction but thems the breaks) Politically it's a trickier sell - not every leaver has had your damascene conversion.
Suspect that we experiencing a media desperate to find significant problems.
All the vehicles in that disastrous world-ending queue represent about 20 minutes at the stated normal capacity.
Does anyone have a real number for the percentage of perishable food that has actually been sent to landfill?
Rather than the amount of words expended in "because of Brexit" stories?
So Cyclefree has been to Xinjiang? Well I have. I saw literally thousands of Uighurs going about their business, apparently perfectly happily. Mosques being destroyed? I saw new mosques being built in Kashgar, Aksu and Dunhuang. I saw Friday prayers being held at the Id Kah mosque in Kashgar and heard the muezzins calling people to prayer. I suspect that Cyclefree has spent too much time listening to Donald Trump and I'm surprised to see his propaganda being peddled on this site.
I see the CCP has noticed this header, and allocated a bot..
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
If by "Western democracy" you mean the apartheid regime in South Africa and the Smith regime in Rhodesia, no it wasn't suitable for Africans. There again, in most cases neither was what came next.
The interesting bit was that South Africa "was different" according to the same people. One person One vote *was* a moral issue there.
But demanding democracy in Ghana was racist, apparently.
Similar attitudes to towards calls for multi party democracy in Eastern Europe.
The suddenly in 1989 a bunch of people discovered that democracy was a universal thing....
Who are these fictitious people who you quote from your seemingly fertile imagination? Sources and links please.
I read all about them in definitive works by Freddie Forsythe.
Excellent thread, Cyclefree. Simply superb. I agree with every word.
China under the CCP represents a clear and present danger to the future freedom, liberty and security of humanity. All of us.
Forget Brexit. Forget Trump. Forget the EU. Forget Wokeism. Forget Sindyref. Forget any of our relentless introspective obsessions. Forget the tedious mudslinging we all through at each other each and every day. And I'd argue this is even important in winning the ultimate battle against climate change.
This should be the *number one* focus of Western foreign policy, now, with the same level of attention and focus that the Soviet Union had from 1948 to 1991. On a global level.
It's that serious.
We're in for the long haul and, if we want a future world of freedom and democracy, and if we want to stop our independent economies and securities being destroyed, we need to stop ourselves being slowly boiled in the saucepan.
Today. No excuses. No equivocation.
I'd rather live under CCP rule than a tory government. At least the Chicoms are competent.
New research suggests that Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine can protect against a mutation found in two contagious variants of the coronavirus that erupted in Britain and South Africa, AP reports.
Those variants are causing global concern. They both share a common mutation called N501Y, a slight alteration on one spot of the spike protein that coats the virus. That change is believed to be the reason they can spread so easily.
Most of the vaccines being rolled out around the world train the body to recognize that spike protein and fight it. Pfizer teamed with researchers from the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston for laboratory tests to see if the mutation affected its vaccine’s ability to do so.
They used blood samples from 20 people who received the vaccine, made by Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech, during a large study of the shots. Antibodies from those vaccine recipients successfully fended off the virus in lab dishes, according to the study posted late Thursday on an online site for researchers.
The study is preliminary and has not yet been reviewed by experts, a key step for medical research.
Note they tested only the mutation common to the SA and UK variants, and not yet one of the concerning SA mutations. But that will no doubt be next, and I’m fairly optimistic. I speculated (as did scientists who far better understand this stuff) that the vaccine immune response is possibly more protective than that generated by having been infected. Finders crossed that will continue to be borne out.
Thanks for posting these studies. Hopefully we manage to squash this damn thing before a vaccine-resistant strain gets out.
I wouldn't worry too much: the mRNA revolution that comes out of CV19 is going to change the world - and our treatment of infectious diseases - in a profoundly positive way.
Don't forget the Pfizer vaccine was designed in a day, at the very start of the pandemic.
This week marks an investment milestone. My equity portfolio has now passed an average 10% growth over the last decade. It is notable though that 50% of that is in the last year, so not clear evidence of investing genius, apart from cashing out in Feb, and buying back in April.
Notably though, my best performing stocks are mostly those that do well when China does well. ANTO, RIO, PRU etc. Despite events in HK both HSBA and STAN have surged this week. Considering how buggered things are here, in Europe and the USA, it is quite bonkers how well equities have recovered. Expectation of money printing is part of it, but clearly markets expect China and the West Pacific region generally to be the engine of economic recovery for the world.
In that environment, I cannot see any real measures being agreed that economically punish China, whatever lip service is given.
I was going to ask, financially minded PB'ers, wtf is going on with the markets at the moment. Specifically, Tesla and Bitcoin. As a layperson it looks like we're in bubble territory to me, although I'm reminded of that line about markets staying irrational longer than one can stay solvent. And it does seem irrational (or maybe I'm just bitter, having not got on board early enough... sitting in the sidelines in cash.)
It's about money chasing the "next big thing" multiplied by a *perceived* lack of stable invent opportunities - yes, a bubble.
My understanding another driver of the BitCoin price is bigger investors who believe the West will react to post COVID economic slump by more QA, further devaluing major currencies and so have been investing heavily in things like BitCoin as a hedge against that.
Bit-coin goes up and down for no good reason, ignore anyone who pretends to be able to explain it.
Excellent thread, Cyclefree. Simply superb. I agree with every word.
China under the CCP represents a clear and present danger to the future freedom, liberty and security of humanity. All of us.
Forget Brexit. Forget Trump. Forget the EU. Forget Wokeism. Forget Sindyref. Forget any of our relentless introspective obsessions. Forget the tedious mudslinging we all through at each other each and every day. And I'd argue this is even important in winning the ultimate battle against climate change.
This should be the *number one* focus of Western foreign policy, now, with the same level of attention and focus that the Soviet Union had from 1948 to 1991. On a global level.
It's that serious.
We're in for the long haul and, if we want a future world of freedom and democracy, and if we want to stop our independent economies and securities being destroyed, we need to stop ourselves being slowly boiled in the saucepan.
Today. No excuses. No equivocation.
Er, no.
China is simply righting what it perceives to be centuries of wrongs and, because of its size, has realised that it is the 600lb gorilla.
It has very little expansionist ambition and simply wants to redress what it perceives to be historical iniquities (eg. Taiwan, the Spratlys) as well as maintaining its own internal order.
Is it repressive, violent, anti-democratic but it believes it has a greater purpose which is to bring, kicking and screaming if necessary, the country into the modern age to be a global competitor (not aggressor).
And as people on here have already noted, when you think that 20,000 people a day were dying in Shanghai pre-1949, the country has come a long way.
I always liken it to a blind giant bumbling along a narrow corridor. It bumps into the sides often but the direction is forward.
The Trump coup will go down in history as like the ending of Finding Nemo.
There was a clear plan: 1. Lay down a wall of lies to weaponise the idea the election was stolen 2. Seek legal respite to be turned down (because baseless) proving that "they" have rigged the powers of the state against the rightful victors 3. Whip up revolutionary fervour amongst your supporters. Tell them that Jan 6th is The Day 4. Remove all the people from the DoD who can stop you and replace with your agents 5. Pressurise the GOP saying that unless they do YOUR bidding then your supporters - their voters - will have them 6. Stage the coup. Bring everyone to town. Tell them its Trial by Combat. Demand they March on the Capitol. Have your agents in Congress slow proceedings so that the electoral college isn't actually counted. Giuliani's botched phone call is key here - delay things at least until tomorrow. 7. Storm the Capitol. As the nice lady complaining about free mace in the face said, its a revolution! 8. Refuse to sanction the National Guard to come and regain order. The disorder gets worse. 9. Declare Martial Law. Have your agents inside the DoD direct the National Guard to suppress dissent. 10. Arrest the conspirators - Pelosi, Schumer, AOC. 11. Rule by decree until enough confusion exists about the electoral college result for you to simply toss it aside.
Its insane. It would never have worked. It is laughably naive. But they did it. The problem is that they got to step 7 and it fell apart. Like the end of Finding Nemo there was a Revolution! They Stormed the Capitol! And having got inside and sat in the chamber, the dumb bastards now facing a 10 stretch inside thanks to Trump's own law asked themselves "Now What?"
Storming the Capitol itself does nothing. You needed to be storming it and then holding it long enough for Martial Law to seem reasonable. "We're staying here all night" was the word from inside, reported on CNN. The problem is that some berk managed to call the National Guard. As soon as an army of soldiers appeared outside "its a Revolution!" seemed like a bad idea and "we the people, bitches!" realised it may be a better idea to leave. Because what happens to failed revolutionaries? They don't get mace in the face. They get bullets in the face.
Like most things associated with the dying months of the Trump administration it descended into farce. But it absolutely was serious even if there was little chance of succeeding. Trump and his crime family will almost certainly face the music. But it is wider than that. All of the elected representatives who participated in their part of the coup also need to face justice. Baseless objections to "10 states" to delay certification of the result long enough for the coup to take effect is participating in a coup.
"The problem is that some berk managed to call the National Guard."
iirc that was Pence, although the mayor of DC had already done so I think.
In an alternative universe, Pence, and perhaps one or two key people in the military or police, were on Trump's side and played along with the above plan....
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
No. European Colonial powers taught the first generation of African leaders everything they needed to know about greed, genocide and economic pillage.
Worth noting how prevalent democracy is now, at least in the 50% of Africa that is majority Christian.
Ah yes, the "I need to drive tanks over my people, because of colonialism" theory.
Perhaps Donald Trump is just acting out the repressed memories of 1812?
Well quite. Particularly now references back to colonial days are nothing but PR and distraction. A lot of very bad things happened which do have lingering effects, but not everywhere went the dictator route, it remains a choice of leaders and regimes not some inevitability. Its infantilising to those peoples.
Excellent thread, Cyclefree. Simply superb. I agree with every word.
China under the CCP represents a clear and present danger to the future freedom, liberty and security of humanity. All of us.
Forget Brexit. Forget Trump. Forget the EU. Forget Wokeism. Forget Sindyref. Forget any of our relentless introspective obsessions. Forget the tedious mudslinging we all through at each other each and every day. And I'd argue this is even important in winning the ultimate battle against climate change.
This should be the *number one* focus of Western foreign policy, now, with the same level of attention and focus that the Soviet Union had from 1948 to 1991. On a global level.
It's that serious.
We're in for the long haul and, if we want a future world of freedom and democracy, and if we want to stop our independent economies and securities being destroyed, we need to stop ourselves being slowly boiled in the saucepan.
Today. No excuses. No equivocation.
The strategic thinking (probably starting with Kissenger) was let's open our markets to them and give us a cheap source of labour (tick). That will make them capitalists (tick). This will create a bourgeois middle class that will increase the pressure for democratic reform (err, some initial success under Deng, not so much under Xi). This will result in the overturn of the CCP (nope).
As a strategic plan it had the typical flaw of assuming that the person to whom the plan is directed will not react in ways that are not in the west's interest. Its been a flaw in American plans since Grant and the Civil War. They always work on the basis that they are going to do things to people without thinking through how those people might respond or even act on their own initiative.
People don't generally seek to overthrow their current political system until it starts to fail on its own terms. The Chinese system operates on the basis of the CCP having absolute political power and using it to deliver stability and continuing economic growth. Right now the CCP is upholding its end of the bargain. When it fails to deliver that, as Suharto did in Indonesia, for instance, it may face a challenge. That will happen eventually but I wouldn't bet on it happening soon. China isn't a threat to the West in the way that the Soviets were because it has no real interest in exporting its form of government. Indeed throughout its remarkably long history China has been one of the least expansionary civilisations on record. China will become more assertive as it becomes more powerful, but I don't see it as a threat to the West. If people are genuinely worried about Western democracy I would suggest that they look to threats closer to home. Eg the US president who just tried to organise a coup.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
If by "Western democracy" you mean the apartheid regime in South Africa and the Smith regime in Rhodesia, no it wasn't suitable for Africans. There again, in most cases neither was what came next.
The interesting bit was that South Africa "was different" according to the same people. One person One vote *was* a moral issue there.
But demanding democracy in Ghana was racist, apparently.
Similar attitudes to towards calls for multi party democracy in Eastern Europe.
The suddenly in 1989 a bunch of people discovered that democracy was a universal thing....
Who are these fictitious people who you quote from your seemingly fertile imagination? Sources and links please.
I read all about them in definitive works by Freddie Forsythe.
I can quite clearly recall Labour MPs on television, solemnly explaining that Western Democracy wasn't suitable for other countries. Apparently Soviet style communism was better than democracy since it guaranteed housing and jobs....
Why do you think New Labour happened? Who was Kinnock and then Blair fighting against?
This week marks an investment milestone. My equity portfolio has now passed an average 10% growth over the last decade. It is notable though that 50% of that is in the last year, so not clear evidence of investing genius, apart from cashing out in Feb, and buying back in April.
Notably though, my best performing stocks are mostly those that do well when China does well. ANTO, RIO, PRU etc. Despite events in HK both HSBA and STAN have surged this week. Considering how buggered things are here, in Europe and the USA, it is quite bonkers how well equities have recovered. Expectation of money printing is part of it, but clearly markets expect China and the West Pacific region generally to be the engine of economic recovery for the world.
In that environment, I cannot see any real measures being agreed that economically punish China, whatever lip service is given.
I was going to ask, financially minded PB'ers, wtf is going on with the markets at the moment. Specifically, Tesla and Bitcoin. As a layperson it looks like we're in bubble territory to me, although I'm reminded of that line about markets staying irrational longer than one can stay solvent. And it does seem irrational (or maybe I'm just bitter, having not got on board early enough... sitting in the sidelines in cash.)
It's about money chasing the "next big thing" multiplied by a *perceived* lack of stable invent opportunities - yes, a bubble.
This week marks an investment milestone. My equity portfolio has now passed an average 10% growth over the last decade. It is notable though that 50% of that is in the last year, so not clear evidence of investing genius, apart from cashing out in Feb, and buying back in April.
Notably though, my best performing stocks are mostly those that do well when China does well. ANTO, RIO, PRU etc. Despite events in HK both HSBA and STAN have surged this week. Considering how buggered things are here, in Europe and the USA, it is quite bonkers how well equities have recovered. Expectation of money printing is part of it, but clearly markets expect China and the West Pacific region generally to be the engine of economic recovery for the world.
In that environment, I cannot see any real measures being agreed that economically punish China, whatever lip service is given.
I was going to ask, financially minded PB'ers, wtf is going on with the markets at the moment. Specifically, Tesla and Bitcoin. As a layperson it looks like we're in bubble territory to me, although I'm reminded of that line about markets staying irrational longer than one can stay solvent. And it does seem irrational (or maybe I'm just bitter, having not got on board early enough... sitting in the sidelines in cash.)
It's about money chasing the "next big thing" multiplied by a *perceived* lack of stable invent opportunities - yes, a bubble.
Interest rates are low so where else are you going to put your money?
When inflation kicks in interest rates will start to rise and the bubble will burst. Timing? Your guess is as good as mine. I'd say second half of this year.
Yes, that would be my guess too. However, the world is moving from ICE cars to electric and from coal towards renewable energy. Tesla is leading in both and will have new Gigafactories opening in Berlin and Texas this year. My TSLA shares, bought in May & June 2020, are up 262% so maybe I should sell but I think long term they are worth holding on to.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
I have been to China many times. The ordinary Chinese have a standard of living they could not have dreamed about even 30 years ago. There is no mass discontent, but there are grumblings. These will get louder as the older generations - that have known intense poverty and genuine hunger - die away. The Communist party knows this so is acting now to stifle as much dissent as possible. I could never live in China as a Westerner who has lived a free life in what is, by comparison, a clean environment. But I am the exception rather than the rule in this world. When you have known what the Chinese have known within living memory you will put up with a hell of a lot not to have it back.
Yes, that's a good summary of my impressions too, from multiple visits and discussions with Chinese people living in Britain who are generally not fans of the Chinese authorities. It's an autocracy that is fiercely intolerant of organised internal dissent (it doesn't usually crack down on individual grumbles, unlike, say, Mao and the Red Guards) and of foreign criticism, and as Cyclefree says the treatment of the Uighurs is intolerable. But it's delivered a decent standard of living for enormous numbers of people who were used to grinding poverty and remember actual starvation in their parents' generation. If you're mainstream Chinese and not especially critical of the Government, things are probably going quite well for you.
I'm wary of some of the posturing by governments such as Trump's which use the "Chinese menace" to look strong. It doesn't mean there isn't a degree of menace, but if we focused on the Uighur issue I'd be more comfortable than a generalised anti-Chinese stance.
It's not a generalised anti-Chinese stance, it's a anti-CCP stance.
There's an ethical and moral question about their treatment of Uighurs and Tibet, of course, as well as the repression of their own citizens freedoms. And there is an even bigger question of them using their economic strength to buy out the developing world and bring them under their sphere of influence, first, and then use their economic and military leverage to silent dissent across Western countries.
On topic. Though statistically meaningless....I know three separate people who moved to China to work at various times over the last five years and all three love the place. They are bright enough and diverse enough for me to think that the country can't be all bad.
What's it's like for westerners and ordinary Chinese people are likely to be two different things.
Of course but by the same token it's not always easy to judge what goes on in a culture very different from our own and someone from our culture living there can sometimes be a better judge than 'international outrage'.
I remember being with some Bostonians in France during Thatcher's time and being told how barbaric and undemocratic we the British were because of our behaviour towards the Catholics in Northern Ireland. They were describing actions and a country I didn't recognise
Ah yes. I can also recall white, leftly people telling me that "Western democracy" wasn't suitable for Africans.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
If by "Western democracy" you mean the apartheid regime in South Africa and the Smith regime in Rhodesia, no it wasn't suitable for Africans. There again, in most cases neither was what came next.
The interesting bit was that South Africa "was different" according to the same people. One person One vote *was* a moral issue there.
But demanding democracy in Ghana was racist, apparently.
Similar attitudes to towards calls for multi party democracy in Eastern Europe.
The suddenly in 1989 a bunch of people discovered that democracy was a universal thing....
I am not sure what your point is here.
Post colonian chaos in Africa has been economically catastrophic and violent and industrial scale corruption is depressingly common.
Post colonian chaos has moved colonialism full circle (back on topic) and allowed backdoor Chinese colonialism into much of Africa. It is hard to pinpoint what is worst and what is best. The apartheid regimes of the recent past were most definitely not in the "best" category.
Sigh
During the 1980s it was utterly standard for the UK hard left to decry the universality of human rights, democracy etc.
They applied this to Africa - where they made all kind of excuses for the scumbags looting the place. They applied this to Europe - where they declared that Russia had a right to rule Eastern Europe. They applied this to Russia - where they were building a Better World.
Post 1989 they suddenly discovered a love for democracy.
I do apologise for your frustration at my witheringly stupidity.
I was of the centre-left during the time quoted and I do not recognise that as a description of myself. I opposed the Apartheid regime in South Africa and also the Soviet Union. Perhaps you have read too many articles from the Daily Mail. Sigh!
If you were on the centre-left you were the opposition to these people.
Or perhaps you don't remember - "The longest suicide note in British political history"?
I remember Michael Foot with fondness. That is not to say I wanted to see the incompetent old fool as my Prime Minister. In much the same way I didn't approve of Mrs Thatcher's support of Botha, both politically and economically. To this day I will not buy a hardware product made by the Eliza Tinsley Company, but that doesn't make me a Soviet loving Communist.
A thoroughly depressing header. Hard to see a change in approach to meaningfully go against that odious regime happening in my lifetime.
Has anyone any glimmers of hope that the regime is not as strong as it appears?
Dark dreams everyone.
Sorry about that.
What is even worse is that evil regimes like China, Iran, Russia etc will take comfort from what has been happening in Washington.
I wish I could bring you good news.
That's a powerful indictment, Cyclefree. I think that a declining population of working age will ultimately bring China's economic miracle to a halt, and generate all sorts of internal pressures. Of course, the regime may became even more aggressive as a result.
Yes.
And with a leader other than Xi, I think China would have mellowed into middle age: it would have consumed of more what it produced, it would have got fat and rich and comfortable and keen to avoid changes that might inconvenience it. It would probably have edged slowly and surely towards something that looked like a democracy.
It would, simply, have become a bigger Japan or Singapore or Taiwan.
But instead it has Xi, a man with China's national destiny on his mind. And if growth stumbles, he'll look for external enemies to shore up his regime.
Hmm. I'm not sure it's that simple.
Yes, sure, nasty leaders can make or break a country - Mao, Stalin etc. - but it's the system that's rotten. Our foreign policy should first be focussed on getting rid of Xi, and then gentle reforms in "openness" in the hope this then bears democratic fruit in the long-term.
Jung Chang has written convincingly on how the idea democracy doesn't 'suit' China or the Chinese to be total nonsense, as of course we all know it to be, citing the period in the early 1920s, when it was starting to flower, before the warlords, nationalists and then communists got their hands on it.
That made me laugh out loud! "Our foreign policy should should be focussed on getting rid of Xi"
It's tempting to quote the Godfather "The Corleone's don't have that kind of muscle no more'" but that would be an understatement. I know you're a Brexiteer and England now assumes its rightful place at the top of the pile but in all seriousness how do you expect Dominic Raab and his Merry Men get rid of the Chinese leader?
I dont think Trump will see a single day in a jail cell. Hawley and Cruz will be in the Senate for decades as well.
Cruz and Hawley are one thing, but if I were Trump I would be far more worried today than yesterday. There's information emerging, as DavidL says, that could potentially be used to build a case of treason against him.
Excellent thread, Cyclefree. Simply superb. I agree with every word.
China under the CCP represents a clear and present danger to the future freedom, liberty and security of humanity. All of us.
Forget Brexit. Forget Trump. Forget the EU. Forget Wokeism. Forget Sindyref. Forget any of our relentless introspective obsessions. Forget the tedious mudslinging we all through at each other each and every day. And I'd argue this is even important in winning the ultimate battle against climate change.
This should be the *number one* focus of Western foreign policy, now, with the same level of attention and focus that the Soviet Union had from 1948 to 1991. On a global level.
It's that serious.
We're in for the long haul and, if we want a future world of freedom and democracy, and if we want to stop our independent economies and securities being destroyed, we need to stop ourselves being slowly boiled in the saucepan.
Today. No excuses. No equivocation.
I'd rather live under CCP rule than a tory government. At least the Chicoms are competent.
Comments
Notably though, my best performing stocks are mostly those that do well when China does well. ANTO, RIO, PRU etc. Despite events in HK both HSBA and STAN have surged this week. Considering how buggered things are here, in Europe and the USA, it is quite bonkers how well equities have recovered. Expectation of money printing is part of it, but clearly markets expect China and the West Pacific region generally to be the engine of economic recovery for the world.
In that environment, I cannot see any real measures being agreed that economically punish China, whatever lip service is given.
Apparently traditional African culture *required* corrupt dictators who claimed to be Marxist-Leninist, while buying yet another palace and stashing all the countries money in Switzerland.
As to the various pardons being thrown about as ideas - none of the names suggested have as yet even been formally accused of a crime. I know that Ford "pardoned" Nixon but there was an actual FBI investigation ongoing.
For Trump to pardon his sons and laughably himself he is conceding that "the crime must have been committed". He is conceding that all of them are criminals. Mad as he is, will he actually do this? Perhaps issue them in the context of their insurrection and sedition which is self-evident.
Time to Go Donald. Pack your bags, your remaining days in your luxury Scottish golf resort won't be so bad. And if the heat there gets too much, your friend Vladimir will put you up.
Impeach now. Or America will bitterly regret it in four years time.
Those Dems are cunning at hiding these things...
Black people in China ‘banned from McDonalds and evicted from their homes’ over coronavirus fears
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-china-mcdonalds-black-people-home-evictions-a9465776.html
And it isn't just black people, all non-chinese are discriminated against, even whiteys. Any dispute that requires inacting with the police or other authorities, even Westerners, good luck if your dispute is with somebody who is appears "Chinese", they won't believe you over the other guy.
Worth noting how prevalent democracy is now, at least in the 50% of Africa that is majority Christian.
I mean it admits... criminality if it's a general one, same for a specific one - and admitting to treason won't look good.
He's also at the mercy of the Supreme Court interpretation of the pardon power.
The speech indicates to my mind that he won't go for it, I might be wrong though
Visited before Covid kicked off. There's certainly a buzz and confidence about the place, and in the cities at least it feels like the future (brings to mind what I imagine Japan was like in the 80's). I'm sure life for a foreigner, or a middle class ethnic Han local isn't all that bad (although the general competitiveness for well paid jobs, and price of housing in cities sounds brutal).
I personally found the overt surveillance a bit menacing, but it's justified on the grounds of security and I guess it is accepted on that basis - no different to over here in some ways.
Mr. B, I must object in the strongest possible terms.
Grammar Nazis are not snowflakes. What an accusation to make!
"The problem is not that we were once in charge, but that we are not in charge any more."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-boris-archive-africa-is-a-mess-but-we-can-t-blame-colonialism
The UK has signed an unworkable treaty and both sides appear to be saying "this is the treaty". How long until the UK reopens negotiations? To seek "concessions" from the forriners who outrageously have gummed up our economy with their barriers to trade which we demanded.
But demanding democracy in Ghana was racist, apparently.
Similar attitudes to towards calls for multi party democracy in Eastern Europe.
The suddenly in 1989 a bunch of people discovered that democracy was a universal thing....
Perhaps Putin could let him rename the state housing block where Edward Snowdon lives, Trump Tower, Moscow, and Trump could stay there.
I'm wary of some of the posturing by governments such as Trump's which use the "Chinese menace" to look strong. It doesn't mean there isn't a degree of menace, but if we focused on the Uighur issue I'd be more comfortable than a generalised anti-Chinese stance.
I reckon Pence told him it was this or the 25A,
Perhaps Donald Trump is just acting out the repressed memories of 1812?
Edit: Ah, I see the point has already been made
And I think you miss the point that Trump is shameless; conceding that a crime has been committed wouldn't worry him, provided the crime had no adverse consequences for him.
One point I saw made the other day is that pardoning others is a two-edged sword because they are safe from the consequences of admitting a crime for which they have been pardoned, which means they cannot plead the 5th amendment (right not to self-incriminate) if asked in future to give evidence against Trump.
https://uk.video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search;_ylt=AwrIRlF5Ifhf5TIAmQN3Bwx.;_ylu=Y29sbwMEcG9zAzEEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3BpdnM-?p=IClaude+Rains+'m+shocked&type=dhm_A0JQ1_set_bfr__alt__ddc_srch_searchpulse_net&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&ei=UTF-8&fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea#id=1&vid=a6318b08c3e6127efe12c29a9f4ffe8f&action=view
Politically it's a trickier sell - not every leaver has had your damascene conversion.
There was a clear plan:
1. Lay down a wall of lies to weaponise the idea the election was stolen
2. Seek legal respite to be turned down (because baseless) proving that "they" have rigged the powers of the state against the rightful victors
3. Whip up revolutionary fervour amongst your supporters. Tell them that Jan 6th is The Day
4. Remove all the people from the DoD who can stop you and replace with your agents
5. Pressurise the GOP saying that unless they do YOUR bidding then your supporters - their voters - will have them
6. Stage the coup. Bring everyone to town. Tell them its Trial by Combat. Demand they March on the Capitol. Have your agents in Congress slow proceedings so that the electoral college isn't actually counted. Giuliani's botched phone call is key here - delay things at least until tomorrow.
7. Storm the Capitol. As the nice lady complaining about free mace in the face said, its a revolution!
8. Refuse to sanction the National Guard to come and regain order. The disorder gets worse.
9. Declare Martial Law. Have your agents inside the DoD direct the National Guard to suppress dissent.
10. Arrest the conspirators - Pelosi, Schumer, AOC.
11. Rule by decree until enough confusion exists about the electoral college result for you to simply toss it aside.
Its insane. It would never have worked. It is laughably naive. But they did it. The problem is that they got to step 7 and it fell apart. Like the end of Finding Nemo there was a Revolution! They Stormed the Capitol! And having got inside and sat in the chamber, the dumb bastards now facing a 10 stretch inside thanks to Trump's own law asked themselves "Now What?"
Storming the Capitol itself does nothing. You needed to be storming it and then holding it long enough for Martial Law to seem reasonable. "We're staying here all night" was the word from inside, reported on CNN. The problem is that some berk managed to call the National Guard. As soon as an army of soldiers appeared outside "its a Revolution!" seemed like a bad idea and "we the people, bitches!" realised it may be a better idea to leave. Because what happens to failed revolutionaries? They don't get mace in the face. They get bullets in the face.
Like most things associated with the dying months of the Trump administration it descended into farce. But it absolutely was serious even if there was little chance of succeeding. Trump and his crime family will almost certainly face the music. But it is wider than that. All of the elected representatives who participated in their part of the coup also need to face justice. Baseless objections to "10 states" to delay certification of the result long enough for the coup to take effect is participating in a coup.
Post colonian chaos in Africa has been economically catastrophic and violent and industrial scale corruption is depressingly common.
Post colonian chaos has moved colonialism full circle (back on topic) and allowed backdoor Chinese colonialism into much of Africa. It is hard to pinpoint what is worst and what is best. The apartheid regimes of the recent past were most definitely not in the "best" category.
Although, it seems, not in what Scott_P subjects us to in his blizzard of retweets. Any old crap will do....
China under the CCP represents a clear and present danger to the future freedom, liberty and security of humanity. All of us.
Forget Brexit. Forget Trump. Forget the EU. Forget Wokeism. Forget Sindyref. Forget any of our relentless introspective obsessions. Forget the tedious mudslinging we all through at each other each and every day. And I'd argue this is even important in winning the ultimate battle against climate change.
This should be the *number one* focus of Western foreign policy, now, with the same level of attention and focus that the Soviet Union had from 1948 to 1991. On a global level.
It's that serious.
We're in for the long haul and, if we want a future world of freedom and democracy, and if we want to stop our independent economies and securities being destroyed, we need to stop ourselves being slowly boiled in the saucepan.
Today. No excuses. No equivocation.
LOL
Another huge issue is they have stolen loads of western IP, then the chinese state manipulate their currency in order to undercut western company prices using tech based on the stolen IP, putting western companies out of business and making us reliant on the Chinese.
What is happening in Xinjiang is chilling. The only valid response here, I think, is for the rest of the world to throw the genocide book at China. Not least to make clear to people in China what is going on.
Unfortunately for those of us who prefer liberal democracy to Chinese style governance and Hong Kongers themselves, the RoW isn't in a particularly strong position to call out China on Hong Kong. China always reserved the right to itself of imposing whatever system of government it wants on Hong Kong and it was always likely to merge HK into the Chinese political system sooner or later. The reason why it held off for so long was because the leadership had its eye on the bigger prize of Taiwan. The RoW maybe can more effectively focus on Taiwan than HK.
On international norms there is something of a negotiation. Engage where norms are met, create costs where they are not. China is big enough that it will influence those norms however.
The Uighur suppression is the pressing issue.
During the 1980s it was utterly standard for the UK hard left to decry the universality of human rights, democracy etc.
They applied this to Africa - where they made all kind of excuses for the scumbags looting the place.
They applied this to Europe - where they declared that Russia had a right to rule Eastern Europe.
They applied this to Russia - where they were building a Better World.
Post 1989 they suddenly discovered a love for democracy.
Sadly, I cannot see the West taking much action.
iirc that was Pence, although the mayor of DC had already done so I think.
As a strategic plan it had the typical flaw of assuming that the person to whom the plan is directed will not react in ways that are not in the west's interest. Its been a flaw in American plans since Grant and the Civil War. They always work on the basis that they are going to do things to people without thinking through how those people might respond or even act on their own initiative.
I was of the centre-left during the time quoted and I do not recognise that as a description of myself. I opposed the Apartheid regime in South Africa and also the Soviet Union. Perhaps you have read too many articles from the Daily Mail. Sigh!
Also Canada wants one too.
(Apologies if already posted.)
Why, if it prosper, none dare call it treason.
John Harrington
Who, incidentally, invented an early flush toilet according to Wikipedia.
One thing that is really striking, though, is that had this got any further, his months-long preamble of a false election would be as many historians have pointed out, exactly what you'd start your TV broadcast with.
"I'm broadcasting today to tell all Americans that order has been restored ; the true election results have finally been recognised.", etc. "America is back ! "
https://twitter.com/AFTunion/status/1347375794109046784
Yes, sure, nasty leaders can make or break a country - Mao, Stalin etc. - but it's the system that's rotten. Our foreign policy should first be focussed on getting rid of Xi, and then gentle reforms in "openness" in the hope this then bears democratic fruit in the long-term.
Jung Chang has written convincingly on how the idea democracy doesn't 'suit' China or the Chinese to be total nonsense, as of course we all know it to be, citing the period in the early 1920s, when it was starting to flower, before the warlords, nationalists and then communists got their hands on it.
Or perhaps you don't remember - "The longest suicide note in British political history"?
When inflation kicks in interest rates will start to rise and the bubble will burst. Timing? Your guess is as good as mine. I'd say second half of this year.
All the vehicles in that disastrous world-ending queue represent about 20 minutes at the stated normal capacity.
Does anyone have a real number for the percentage of perishable food that has actually been sent to landfill?
Rather than the amount of words expended in "because of Brexit" stories?
Arrest them all and charge them with sedition.
Ten years minimum would do.
https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1347472314829561857?s=19
China is simply righting what it perceives to be centuries of wrongs and, because of its size, has realised that it is the 600lb gorilla.
It has very little expansionist ambition and simply wants to redress what it perceives to be historical iniquities (eg. Taiwan, the Spratlys) as well as maintaining its own internal order.
Is it repressive, violent, anti-democratic but it believes it has a greater purpose which is to bring, kicking and screaming if necessary, the country into the modern age to be a global competitor (not aggressor).
And as people on here have already noted, when you think that 20,000 people a day were dying in Shanghai pre-1949, the country has come a long way.
I always liken it to a blind giant bumbling along a narrow corridor. It bumps into the sides often but the direction is forward.
China isn't a threat to the West in the way that the Soviets were because it has no real interest in exporting its form of government. Indeed throughout its remarkably long history China has been one of the least expansionary civilisations on record. China will become more assertive as it becomes more powerful, but I don't see it as a threat to the West.
If people are genuinely worried about Western democracy I would suggest that they look to threats closer to home. Eg the US president who just tried to organise a coup.
Why do you think New Labour happened? Who was Kinnock and then Blair fighting against?
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2021/01/08/robert-moore-itn-news-inside-us-capitol-riots-ebof-vpx.cnn
However, the world is moving from ICE cars to electric and from coal towards renewable energy. Tesla is leading in both and will have new Gigafactories opening in Berlin and Texas this year. My TSLA shares, bought in May & June 2020, are up 262% so maybe I should sell but I think long term they are worth holding on to.
There's an ethical and moral question about their treatment of Uighurs and Tibet, of course, as well as the repression of their own citizens freedoms. And there is an even bigger question of them using their economic strength to buy out the developing world and bring them under their sphere of influence, first, and then use their economic and military leverage to silent dissent across Western countries.
We need to tackle both. And the clock is ticking.
Tick-tock.
It's tempting to quote the Godfather "The Corleone's don't have that kind of muscle no more'" but that would be an understatement. I know you're a Brexiteer and England now assumes its rightful place at the top of the pile but in all seriousness how do you expect Dominic Raab and his Merry Men get rid of the Chinese leader?
A-
I'm sure they'd be delighted to have you.