Categories
With 98% of the votes counted the Dems looks set to gain both Georgia US Senate seats – politicalbet
With 98% of the votes counted the Dems looks set to gain both Georgia US Senate seats – politicalbetting.com
The above from the New York Times shows the big American news overnight that the Democrats look all set to take the two Georgia runoffs seats. This is hugely significant as it means that in the new Senate the split will be 50/50 between the Democrats and the Republicans. Because the casting vote goes to to the Vice President, Kamala Harris from January 20th, Biden will become a President in 2 weeks time with his party controlling both parts of Congress as well as the White House.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
This claim is disputed!
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1346741415934619648
https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/727604522156228608?s=19
If Biden can make any progress at all after such a catastrophic inheritance then he would already be heading to be a great President. The chances, however, are weighed strongly against him. Still at least the US has a chance of turning the corner... The UK is going to be in a mess for a lot longer.
We shouldn't have expectations management, we should have ambition.
You can get 250/1 on him for the 2024 Presidency but I regard that as fanciful, even though I've placed a tenner. He's a very good debater and will be an asset to the party in Congress.
What a fantastic result this is. A quite remarkable achievement by the Democrats.
What would you prefer - aim for 14m vaccinations and get 10m or aim for 7m and get 7m ?
The coronavirus pandemic pushed UK car sales in 2020 down to the lowest level since 1992, the biggest annual slump since the second world war despite surging sales of electric cars, according to industry data.
I was surprised to see that the new car market was actually quite strong pre-COVID, and the figure for this year isn't all that bad.
Anyway, there are interesting demographic reasons which we don't really need to mine right now: black votes, Jewish votes, male-female etc.
But things are too 'eventful' at present.
Much depends on what those events are.
Don't think it has been used yet.
You Only Die Twice.
https://news.sky.com/story/tanya-roberts-bond-girls-death-confirmed-a-day-after-mistaken-announcement-12180022
Gets coat.
Another example of Trump selfishness. A move purely designed to underline his own importance but which threw GOP colleagues under the bus (a matter he'll care nothing about, of course).
1944 - 1951 : 91% (Truman)
1952 - 1953 : 92% (Truman)
1954 - 1963 : 91% (Eisenhower/Kennedy)
1964 : 77% (Johnson)
The highest rates of US tax didn't come down below 70% until 1981.
I mean I am not actually advocating these levels of tax but the idea they are either unusual or only enacted by raving left wingers is clearly fanciful.
This is what the Tory-media cabal simply don´t get. Not one of them, from Johnson, to Gove, to Kuenssberg has professional experience in getting things done. They are great at propaganda and spin, and lousy managers.
In the private sector (and actually most of the public) Patel would have been fired, Jenrick probably under criminal investigation and most of the other members of the cabinet would have failed to graduate the most basic business degree course.
The one thing that I would agree with is that this should help him get his cabinet in position somewhat faster. That would be a good thing. American administrations seem to take an age to get going despite the completely absurd time gap from November 3rd to January 20th. If our PM, and pretty much every other elected official worldwide, can appoint nearly all his or her cabinet within 24 hours of the election, having moved into Downing Street, it is just remarkable that Americans accept this level of inefficiency. Not being dependent upon McConnell for the timetabling is the biggest single win in these results.
However notable Eisenhower and JFK in particular still cut the top income tax rate
It was always a bit easier for Perdue, plus he had a longer record to run on so no doubt there were a few "well, I'm basically Democrat but David saved the factory that time" people.
Not saying she was a good candidate by any means, but it is in no way surprising Perdue outperformed her.
https://unherd.com/2021/01/inside-the-covid-ward/
I want this wretched virus over. Ambition to get rid of it is a good thing.
The UK has set an "ambitious target" for 14 million by 14 February.
France has set an "ambitious target" for 1 million by 31 January.
I know which target I'd prefer. What about you?
Instead, what happened was
- Populist "I am squeezing the rich" votes in Congress
- "Give me contributions and I'll give you tax breaks" - voted through in Congress. Often in the same bill to raise tax.
Net result - *less* tax raised every time.
This is how the US tax code came into existence. And it's carefully defended by the fact that everyone gets tax breaks. Even a jobbing carpenter.... So when the Republicans suggested flattening the system in the 90s, the tax industry funded a campaign of "EVUL Republicans are here to steal your tax breaks".
It's not especially difficult to pay no federal income tax in the US - if you are rich enough to play the games with assets and charitable contributions. Hence the problem.
By comparison, the UK tax rates are hard to avoid.
The point is, a distribution hub in the EU can supply goods produced locally or substitute with goods from outside the EU after importing according to whatever preferential trade agreement the source country has with the EU. The end customer doesn't care which is which.
Out of the EU, a UK hub can only supply third country products at the full tax MFN rates, even if the EU has a preferential arrangement with that third country. Effectively this means the UK hub can no longer carry on. The business can only supply UK made goods to a hub based in the EU. Given the predominance of supply chains this is a much smaller business.
Whatever easement may get agreed between the EU/UK/ROI it still won't change the new reality that what had been free and frictionless trade is now expensive and labourious.
IIRC you were quite enraged by bad forecasts, particularly the Whitty/Vallance projections of 50,000 cases in October without further action.
Turns out they were right.
The 100K target was a classic of that. Matt Hancock and the Govt rubbished their reputation for being honest on the pandemic. Up until then the Govt had done (or appeared to be doing a decent job). The blatant manipulating of the numbers was the start of the population not trusting the Govt over the pandemic. Up to that point they had done ok.
He's suddenly looking like a serial political loser and liability, and as we know, our U.S. friends tend to hate "losers" at the best of times.
First, I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the Earth...
But notice, it's a goal. And JFK spent the rest of the speech outlining what would be needed to be in a position to achieve that goal.
BoJo does something different. Much higher confidence that what he says will happen, and nothing on what will be needed.
And that's a potential problem. Throughout this crisis, the UK has gone for technologies- massive testing, the app, fast vaccines. They're not bad in themselves, but I wonder if they've given us an excuse to not get the basics right and tempt the government to relax controls too early because tech will save us. Mostly, it hasn't, which links with the UK not doing well at keeping people alive.
It is perfectly reasonable to set an ambitious target -- I do it all the time.
Boris' vaccination program will be judged against those in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, etc.
It's a wafer-thin majority in the Senate, and not much better in the House, for the Dems. If they try and overreach with a "radical" programme - and I suspect they might be tempted - they'll lose both in 2022.
I'm of the view that most (not all) of the Republican Party will return to some level of sanity once Trump has been expunged, albeit they will learn the lessons on changing their politics given his original appeal.
Getting people vaccinated is the route out of this. If the entire machinery of government gets a bloody minded focus to get this target achieved then that is not a bad thing, it is a good one!
Interesting report - and the cost of government by leak and spin.
The trick is not to let that influence your betting.
I do hope the government isn’t going to roll back on it, after failing to monitor the supply pipeline and work closely and daily with the supplier to unblock any bottlenecks.
Of course, many on PB seek to absolve the government of any responsibility for supply failure.
Personally I would much prefer it if the opposition had the balls to say "this isn't going to work unless you get the public to behave. Either do more on that side or don't waste the money."
Another is that, as the Telegraph sketch points out, Boris had no answer to the obvious question, what changed?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/05/single-biggest-question-boris-johnson-had-answer-alas-couldnt/
And as you've not answered my question I'll ask it again:
What would you prefer - aim for 14m vaccinations and get 10m or aim for 7m and get 7m ?
The issue currently is to get as many people vaccinated as soon as possible.
And its more important that happens than politicians being able to say they reached their targets.
I don't see an easy path for any moderately sane Republican to win a GOP Primary. That's why we still have 10 GOP Senators about to humiliate themselves by still pretending Trump won the election.
https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1346758784602005504
See also "mince".
Hopefully helpful
They would seem pretty well on board with any likely infrastructure projects - indeed are advocates for them.
If it is really important to vaccinate as many people as possible why is the government not allowing pharmacists and former docs to join the vaccination rollout, and why are they taking breaks on Sunday?
https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1346749410064146433
The other lesson is when you do move, move quickly. In the first lockdown Guernsey announced at noon that pubs would be closing at 6pm that day. In its second lockdown (Guernsey hasn't had one) Jersey announced that pubs would be closing at closing time the following day. You can guess how busy the pubs were over the next two nights.
Suppose you are a widget firm needing to make forecasts of widget sales this year in order to plan resources, marketing, etc. Those forecasts need to be realistic otherwise you have huge waste on your hands. Plus credibility is lost if you consistently make claims which transparently obviously are unrealistic.
Whatever happened to under promise and over deliver although again, for planning purposes too modest ambition can be destructive.
Realistic is your watchword. I doubt that Boris has spent one minute actually understanding the challenges of the things he is announcing. Do you?
What will happen is we don't do anywhere near 2 million a week for the next 4-5 weeks, be well behind target, then the man from delmonte get a call again and finally all stops are pulled out.
The result is we get those groups vaccinated by mid March and the government gets smashed from pillar to post for again over promising....rather than set the target for end of March (well ahead of rest of Europe) and then beat it by the minister in charge keeping the pressure up to constantly be beating the official pace.
Abrams is a far more likely (long odds) bet for the 2024 nomination.
South Dakota could be fun if Trump sticks his oar in.
https://twitter.com/sarahmanavis/status/1346750982844276736?s=21
Have to say Al Gore comes across pretty well in it, being the losing candidate under far more fraught circumstances than Trump.
Given that it's there, the wise course for a government that really wants to make a difference is to gently nudge and steer against that tendency. The easy path for someone whose priority is sitting in the big chair is to pander to it.
In that sense, this government is quinticencially British.
"I think she's didd."
"Noo I'm not......."
https://thecritic.co.uk/what-boris-johnson-told-the-22/
The GOP incumbents in NC and PA are retiring so may be pickup opportunities for the Dems. Maybe WI too.
I am grateful for the vaccine, and don't underestimate that Johnson's gamble on the vaccine will ultimately pay dividends. But that is for the near future, I am concerned that the vaccine is now being used as an invisibllity cloak for all else, thereby diluting the current "stay at home" message. The vaccine is important news but at yesterday's presser it should have played second fiddle to the story of the day which was "stay at home"
Johnson did this through Lockdown One. Chaos over PPE and test and trace was brushed under the carpet of the success of the Nightingale Hospitals.
Anyway, back on topic. If Ossoff wins the spectre of Trump can be exorcised with less difficulty than might have been the case with Mitch running the show.
Other major retailers - the Dunnes of this world - share the same kind of products as Tesco Ireland carry. Why? Because Ireland and the UK have similar tastes and a similar diet. Which means they pull a lot of products from a territory that is largely described as "UK&I".
Ireland can decouple from the UK and source from elsewhere. But it won't be to the same taste as what they necessarily want and would be a relatively low volume add-on for a French company if they wanted to step in. And if they do this and "UK&I" becomes "UK" then inevitably lower volumes means higher prices for UK consumers.