Not my take at all. Starmer got his MPs to vote for the deal. It was a sell out by Starmer and if I'd been taking part in the poll I wouldn't have said Labour. Johnson has to own it hook line and sinker!
Though Labour were unchanged.
Perhaps your "Oh how horrific, I just saw a union flag behind Starmer, and he didn't vote to reject a deal with Europe - and there's someone from Huddersfield, I better have a fit of vapors and a nice walk around Paris which is so much better than anywhere in the horrid United Kingdom to recover" brand of socialism isn't representative of the Great British public?
Thought about it yesterday, but we have enough in the freezer and frankly, the supplies were never a problem after the first week of lockdown. The doom-pornsters were just left with a billion bog rolls.
The best move I made was I bought a second freezer in February, followed by a big CostCo trip. Months of meat, fruit and veg.
We bought an extra freezer in late Feb and asked at the checkout if there had been a run on them. The assistant looked at us as if we were mad. I wonder what they thought a week later...
Our fridge/freezer died during the panic run when the shelves were at their most empty. We hadn't panic-bought anything just shopped as normal but suddenly all our fresh and frozen produce was spoilt and we had what was in the cupboards only.
We survived just fine off the cupboards until our new fridge/freezer was delivered. I then went to the shops and bought what I could, there was no fresh chicken or other products we'd normally have in, but there was enough to get to keep everyone happy even if we altered our diet for a few days.
All in all left with the distinct impression there really was no reason to panic. Even though we lost all our fresh produce at the very worst possible moment nobody went hungry - like I suspect most families there's enough beans, soup and other random stuff accumulated in tins in the cupboard to live off even without anything fresh for a while.
In the times before the Emergency it would be my habit to go to the supermarket several times a week - we have two within easy walking distance. Sometimes if they happened not to have exactly what I wanted at the first I'd walk to the second for it.
The point of stocking-up is to reduce my contact with the supermarket by an order of magnitude on this previous behaviour. It's not because I'm worried about going hungry.
Exactly right. In the first lockdown we tried hard to only go to the supermarket once a week. It was difficult because of the lazy habits you get into when things are always available but we will try to be doing the same this time for the reasons you have indicated.
The figures can easily be manipulated, although personally I thought yesterday's pledge was one of Johnson's more doable boasts. Nonetheless, is it still wise to be throwing out pledges when few of the previous pledges appear to have been delivered? That said, a failed Johnson promise doesn't seem to do him any harm. Failure is covered by the next bigger and better ambition.
Anyway the fanbois on here are happy with their hero, so all is good!
They really have never heard of the phrase underpromise and over deliver. If they just took the RyanAir acheduking approach and had said our target is mid March for these groups, that will be faster than anywhere else in Europe, most people would have gone hmmm ok...then if they get it done by start of March, they get to claim victory.
Instead, what will happen is some production delays and slower than forecast rate of jabbing and before we know it the timeline has slipped to start of March, without really AZN, the government or the NHS really doing anything massively wrong....but theh will be bashed from pillar to post.
Assuming the lockdown will actually contain the current outbreak, I think we're still due one more round of opening up too quickly and reintroducing restrictions too slowly, because any fall in cases will be ascribed to the vaccines even though it is still primarily our behaviour that controls the R rate. Unrestricted R seems well above 3, and even 50% vaccinated with a 70% efficacy only brings it down by a third. And the partial protection also still leaves plenty of people to potentially get seriously ill.
I think that its very unlikely that even Defcom 5 (you sure about this? Ed) is going to stop the spread of the new variant. At best we are likely to see a levelling off of cases at a very high level until the vaccines start to have an effect. We simply cannot operate, feed ourselves, look after our sick, care for our relatives, etc without a sufficient level of interaction for this new variant to spread. The vaccine is the only hope.
Lockdown and vaccine, both together, as hard as possible and as quick as possible is our only hope. Even then, it's touch and go whether we avoid meltdown. Parts of England are already on the brink.
If hard lockdown can just about stabilise cases (there is some evidence for this in South Wales and Essex), vaccination can allow us to ease off gently over time. Bear in mind we need to get hospitalisation rates down, not just the fatality rates and this means vaccinating more than just the most vulnerable population.
Whilst that is true the most vulnerable are also the most likely to require medical treatment so vaccinating the 20% most at risk should have a significant effect on hospitalisation rates too.
It will have an effect on hospitalisation rates (presumably somewhat higher than 20% improvement with that vaccination percentage, depending on the vaccine's efficacy in reducing illness and transmission). The bigger again questions in the next few months are what state the health system is in and to what degree hard lockdown can stabilise case rates. If hard lockdown keeps a lid on the epidemic we are in a much better place for the vaccines to get us out of the hole.
The Dems are indeed favourite in both races but are still a shade of odds against to do what they need to do - the double. I'm feeling bullish but also nervous. It means a lot this one. I do not want to see Joe tangled up and able to do nothing of much import. He deserves better than that, having saved his country and the wider world from the gruesome prospect of a 2nd Trump term.
The vote was anti Trump, just, for which Biden was able to capitalise as a relative pragmatist and centrist, the vote was not for a Democratic landslide and to shift the US left
Then why does US polling consistently show large majorities in favour of for example stimulus packages, green energy and public healthcare ?
I've made a complaint to the BBC for having Gupta on Today to peddle her wrong opinions about herd immunity again.
There are so many other more interesting - and more likely to be valid - criticisms to make of lockdown, of why we're in a third one, what we're not doing that we should have done that might have avoided it.
But Gupta has been wrong at every stage of this emergency and the BBC should be finding people who haven't been proven so reliably wrong to talk to.
I wondered what on earth she was doing on there too. Maybe R4 should be blocked from the airwaves like Talk Radio on YouTube.
Her arguments weren't even self-consistent and the whole interview was a total waste of time. Yet she still gets invited.
I also heard that and struggled to understand what she was trying to argue. Was it "the reason the new variant is spreading more quickly than old ones is because there is already a degree of herd immunity against the old variants"? Because, on the face of it, that doesn't seem to fit the facts at all well.
You'd need something like 40% resistance against the old strains to give the new strain the reported 70% faster spread. Not completely implausible, but as far as I remember the antibody studies looking into this haven't found anywhere near such levels.
And ultimately it makes little differrence as to why the new strain spreads more quickly. It still needs to be stopped.
OTOH how could you bear to miss those penetrating, informed questions that we always get from our glorious media? Maybe the 3rd or 5th time Boris is asked the same question about why his position was different last night as opposed to Marr on Sunday we might learn something truly fascinating.
Peston asks something dumb 1/100 Journalist asks a penetrating question about the border 100/1
Skinny odds there Philip, skinny odds indeed.
The absolute banker is that Whitty and Vallance will indicate the lockdown will have to last much longer than Johnson has so far said.
11bn a week? chicken feed!
I don't think so. Boris did not promise the lifting of restrictions mid February, he said that there would be a review. The key to that review is how fast the vaccinations are going and what effect it is having on the hospitalisation rates. My guess now is that we will see some token lifting of restrictions but any school reopenings will be delayed to the end of the month at the earliest.
Following the release of the Parliamentary Electoral register for 2 March 2020 today by the Office of National Statistics, details for the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies have been announced by the four UK Boundary Commissions. This includes the number of constituencies allocated to each part of the UK and the Electoral Quota (average electorate) for each constituency.
For the 2023 Review the Electoral Quota (EQ) will be 73,392.
In accordance with the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (the 1986 Act), as amended, the number of Parliamentary constituencies across the UK will remain at 650. Across the UK, the number of constituencies has been calculated using the Saint Lague formula as follows:
– in England 543 in place of the current 533;
– in Scotland 57 in place of the current 59
– in Wales 32 in place of the current 40; and
– in Northern Ireland 18 constituencies will be retained
Not my take at all. Starmer got his MPs to vote for the deal. It was a sell out by Starmer and if I'd been taking part in the poll I wouldn't have said Labour. Johnson has to own it hook line and sinker!
Sorry but that analysis doesn't stand up. If that were the case and you were typical of the vote move in this poll then you should have seen Labour drop but Tories not go up up (assuming I believe correctly that you would not vote Tory even though you are not supporting Labour on this)
What you have actually seen is the Labour vote stay the same, the Lib Dem vote drop and the Tory vote increase. I can't reconcile this with an anti-Brexit protest vote against Starmer.
What is amazing me at the moment is that the Tory vote is holding up (or increasing) in spite of the dogs dinner Johnson is making of Covid.
Thought about it yesterday, but we have enough in the freezer and frankly, the supplies were never a problem after the first week of lockdown. The doom-pornsters were just left with a billion bog rolls.
The best move I made was I bought a second freezer in February, followed by a big CostCo trip. Months of meat, fruit and veg.
We bought an extra freezer in late Feb and asked at the checkout if there had been a run on them. The assistant looked at us as if we were mad. I wonder what they thought a week later...
Our fridge/freezer died during the panic run when the shelves were at their most empty. We hadn't panic-bought anything just shopped as normal but suddenly all our fresh and frozen produce was spoilt and we had what was in the cupboards only.
We survived just fine off the cupboards until our new fridge/freezer was delivered. I then went to the shops and bought what I could, there was no fresh chicken or other products we'd normally have in, but there was enough to get to keep everyone happy even if we altered our diet for a few days.
All in all left with the distinct impression there really was no reason to panic. Even though we lost all our fresh produce at the very worst possible moment nobody went hungry - like I suspect most families there's enough beans, soup and other random stuff accumulated in tins in the cupboard to live off even without anything fresh for a while.
In the times before the Emergency it would be my habit to go to the supermarket several times a week - we have two within easy walking distance. Sometimes if they happened not to have exactly what I wanted at the first I'd walk to the second for it.
The point of stocking-up is to reduce my contact with the supermarket by an order of magnitude on this previous behaviour. It's not because I'm worried about going hungry.
Exactly right. In the first lockdown we tried hard to only go to the supermarket once a week. It was difficult because of the lazy habits you get into when things are always available but we will try to be doing the same this time for the reasons you have indicated.
We have been doing our supermarket shopping once a fortnight since April - supplemented with an Abel and Cole box for fruit, veg, milk and eggs. We bought a bread machine too and buy flour wholesale so it's easy to get by between shops. We've avoided online deliveries because we'd rather leave slots for people who are self isolating. But we had to switch to online because we've been self isolating owing to a Covid case in the house. Luckily we arranged the slot before the latest lock down, but we are running a bit low on stuff now - if tomorrow's delivery were cancelled we'd be eating a lot of rice and tinned food.
And there is already a concern about the latter stage, with the availability of key ingredients and equipment including glass vials a key issue. England's deputy chief medical officer Prof Jonathan Van-Tam says fill and finish was a "critically short resource across the globe".
OTOH how could you bear to miss those penetrating, informed questions that we always get from our glorious media? Maybe the 3rd or 5th time Boris is asked the same question about why his position was different last night as opposed to Marr on Sunday we might learn something truly fascinating.
Peston asks something dumb 1/100 Journalist asks a penetrating question about the border 100/1
Skinny odds there Philip, skinny odds indeed.
The absolute banker is that Whitty and Vallance will indicate the lockdown will have to last much longer than Johnson has so far said.
11bn a week? chicken feed!
I don't think so. Boris did not promise the lifting of restrictions mid February, he said that there would be a review. The key to that review is how fast the vaccinations are going and what effect it is having on the hospitalisation rates. My guess now is that we will see some token lifting of restrictions but any school reopenings will be delayed to the end of the month at the earliest.
That's much of a muchness.
Our school's half-term is 15-19 February. So already announced is that school won't be reopening until Monday 22/2 at the very, very earliest which already is the end of the month practically. The following week begins 1/3 with end of term 26/3 which takes us then to mid-April at the next earliest already scheduled.
Thought about it yesterday, but we have enough in the freezer and frankly, the supplies were never a problem after the first week of lockdown. The doom-pornsters were just left with a billion bog rolls.
The best move I made was I bought a second freezer in February, followed by a big CostCo trip. Months of meat, fruit and veg.
We bought an extra freezer in late Feb and asked at the checkout if there had been a run on them. The assistant looked at us as if we were mad. I wonder what they thought a week later...
Our fridge/freezer died during the panic run when the shelves were at their most empty. We hadn't panic-bought anything just shopped as normal but suddenly all our fresh and frozen produce was spoilt and we had what was in the cupboards only.
We survived just fine off the cupboards until our new fridge/freezer was delivered. I then went to the shops and bought what I could, there was no fresh chicken or other products we'd normally have in, but there was enough to get to keep everyone happy even if we altered our diet for a few days.
All in all left with the distinct impression there really was no reason to panic. Even though we lost all our fresh produce at the very worst possible moment nobody went hungry - like I suspect most families there's enough beans, soup and other random stuff accumulated in tins in the cupboard to live off even without anything fresh for a while.
In the times before the Emergency it would be my habit to go to the supermarket several times a week - we have two within easy walking distance. Sometimes if they happened not to have exactly what I wanted at the first I'd walk to the second for it.
The point of stocking-up is to reduce my contact with the supermarket by an order of magnitude on this previous behaviour. It's not because I'm worried about going hungry.
Exactly right. In the first lockdown we tried hard to only go to the supermarket once a week. It was difficult because of the lazy habits you get into when things are always available but we will try to be doing the same this time for the reasons you have indicated.
I feel safer going to supermarkets now because most people are wearing masks. I try to go at quieter times so I can jump out the way when I think people are getting too close. I am also starting to wear a mask in more crowded outdoor spaces. Runners panting away inches from your face annoy me.
Following the release of the Parliamentary Electoral register for 2 March 2020 today by the Office of National Statistics, details for the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies have been announced by the four UK Boundary Commissions. This includes the number of constituencies allocated to each part of the UK and the Electoral Quota (average electorate) for each constituency.
For the 2023 Review the Electoral Quota (EQ) will be 73,392.
In accordance with the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (the 1986 Act), as amended, the number of Parliamentary constituencies across the UK will remain at 650. Across the UK, the number of constituencies has been calculated using the Saint Lague formula as follows:
– in England 543 in place of the current 533;
– in Scotland 57 in place of the current 59
– in Wales 32 in place of the current 40; and
– in Northern Ireland 18 constituencies will be retained
OTOH how could you bear to miss those penetrating, informed questions that we always get from our glorious media? Maybe the 3rd or 5th time Boris is asked the same question about why his position was different last night as opposed to Marr on Sunday we might learn something truly fascinating.
Peston asks something dumb 1/100 Journalist asks a penetrating question about the border 100/1
Skinny odds there Philip, skinny odds indeed.
The absolute banker is that Whitty and Vallance will indicate the lockdown will have to last much longer than Johnson has so far said.
11bn a week? chicken feed!
I don't think so. Boris did not promise the lifting of restrictions mid February, he said that there would be a review. The key to that review is how fast the vaccinations are going and what effect it is having on the hospitalisation rates. My guess now is that we will see some token lifting of restrictions but any school reopenings will be delayed to the end of the month at the earliest.
If Johnson is indicating early March, then we can generally add at least a month on to discover what the real number for the full lockdown will be. And that is what Whitty and Vallance will indicate today, because they aren't accomplished at being economical with the truth.
And there is already a concern about the latter stage, with the availability of key ingredients and equipment including glass vials a key issue. England's deputy chief medical officer Prof Jonathan Van-Tam says fill and finish was a "critically short resource across the globe".
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
The Dems are indeed favourite in both races but are still a shade of odds against to do what they need to do - the double. I'm feeling bullish but also nervous. It means a lot this one. I do not want to see Joe tangled up and able to do nothing of much import. He deserves better than that, having saved his country and the wider world from the gruesome prospect of a 2nd Trump term.
The vote was anti Trump, just, for which Biden was able to capitalise as a relative pragmatist and centrist, the vote was not for a Democratic landslide and to shift the US left
Then why does US polling consistently show large majorities in favour of for example stimulus packages, green energy and public healthcare ?
Even Trump backed $2000 furlough a month, Obamacare is already in existence, however most certainly it was not a vote for the woke cultural left
Not something I ever watch, but I think some of were very concerned when the tech companies depersoned the likes of Tommy Robinson (even from platforms where he broke no rules), if it was the start of a slippery slope.
We all like to crap on the media for being irresponsible in their editorial decision-making, but TR are governed by OFCOM who have not judged anything they’ve said to be over the line. It doesn’t seem right for YT to act on something that’s not deemed over the line by a regulator.
For balance, here’s comedians Joe Rogan and Tony Hinchcliffe laying into lockdowns in Los Angeles. Are YouTube about to pull Rogan’s 10m subscriber channel for the same offence? (Warning: language NSFW) https://youtube.com/watch?v=Iyt8rYpUQsg
Is that 3 violations (with some sort of appeal process), or 3 allegations?
I stopped posting almost anything on Youtube years ago when they deleted a video correctly using copyrighted material for critique after a copyright complaint.
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
Can you tell me which sites are manufacturing the vaccine in the UK?
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
Can you tell me which sites are manufacturing the vaccine in the UK?
OTOH how could you bear to miss those penetrating, informed questions that we always get from our glorious media? Maybe the 3rd or 5th time Boris is asked the same question about why his position was different last night as opposed to Marr on Sunday we might learn something truly fascinating.
Peston asks something dumb 1/100 Journalist asks a penetrating question about the border 100/1
Skinny odds there Philip, skinny odds indeed.
The absolute banker is that Whitty and Vallance will indicate the lockdown will have to last much longer than Johnson has so far said.
11bn a week? chicken feed!
I don't think so. Boris did not promise the lifting of restrictions mid February, he said that there would be a review. The key to that review is how fast the vaccinations are going and what effect it is having on the hospitalisation rates. My guess now is that we will see some token lifting of restrictions but any school reopenings will be delayed to the end of the month at the earliest.
That's much of a muchness.
Our school's half-term is 15-19 February. So already announced is that school won't be reopening until Monday 22/2 at the very, very earliest which already is the end of the month practically. The following week begins 1/3 with end of term 26/3 which takes us then to mid-April at the next earliest already scheduled.
Isn;t it likely that Gove has already decided the full lockdown will last at least until Easter, but Boris does not want to tell the party and the country for fear of uproar? they will get to that in early March, right?
Whitty and Vallance may well let the cat out of the bag today though. LOL.
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
Will it set the global vaccination programme back?
Localised to the developing nations that want that it will be set back but globally 1/6th of the world's population is Indian so if Indians are vaccinated first that's still a significant chunk of global population immunised, after which the vaccine can then be rolled out to the other nations waiting for their turn.
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
Can you tell me which sites are manufacturing the vaccine in the UK?
Oxford Biomedica and Cobra Biologics are the primary manufacturing partners and seem to be doing a pretty good job too with a total of 19m doses current made.
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
Can you tell me which sites are manufacturing the vaccine in the UK?
Thank you. I know a bit about this process as I used to work in Biopharm before my career change. From that it's only really being manufactured at two sites in the UK with a further site in the Netherlands, with the filling being done elsewhere which is fairly common practice (this is the part I was previously involved with).
Not like that's a bad thing at all. I wonder if the bottleneck is in the actual manufacture of the fluid, in the filling, or in the batch release.
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
Can you tell me which sites are manufacturing the vaccine in the UK?
This is a month old but suggests that sites were being set up in the UK in Oxford, Keele and N. Wales.
On the India question, I note that the PM is still planning to go there next week and I wonder if he'll discuss vaccine manufacturing with the Indian government.
Not my take at all. Starmer got his MPs to vote for the deal. It was a sell out by Starmer and if I'd been taking part in the poll I wouldn't have said Labour. Johnson has to own it hook line and sinker!
Sorry but that analysis doesn't stand up. If that were the case and you were typical of the vote move in this poll then you should have seen Labour drop but Tories not go up up (assuming I believe correctly that you would not vote Tory even though you are not supporting Labour on this)
What you have actually seen is the Labour vote stay the same, the Lib Dem vote drop and the Tory vote increase. I can't reconcile this with an anti-Brexit protest vote against Starmer.
What is amazing me at the moment is that the Tory vote is holding up (or increasing) in spite of the dogs dinner Johnson is making of Covid.
1. The wider population is rather more forgiving of the Govt's actions on Covid than here, especially now a vaccine has been wisely been planned for and is being administered to those they know at greatest risk.
2. The LibDems were a safe refuge for those normally Tories, Remainers worried about No Deal. No Deal having been used merely as a negotiating ploy, it has now vanished as a concern.
3. Skyr is bland and not to the taste of many. Better than Corbyn, but...
Not my take at all. Starmer got his MPs to vote for the deal. It was a sell out by Starmer and if I'd been taking part in the poll I wouldn't have said Labour. Johnson has to own it hook line and sinker!
Sorry but that analysis doesn't stand up. If that were the case and you were typical of the vote move in this poll then you should have seen Labour drop but Tories not go up up (assuming I believe correctly that you would not vote Tory even though you are not supporting Labour on this)
What you have actually seen is the Labour vote stay the same, the Lib Dem vote drop and the Tory vote increase. I can't reconcile this with an anti-Brexit protest vote against Starmer.
What is amazing me at the moment is that the Tory vote is holding up (or increasing) in spite of the dogs dinner Johnson is making of Covid.
1. The wider population is rather more forgiving of the Govt's actions on Covid than here, especially now a vaccine has been wisely been planned for and is being administered to those they know at greatest risk.
2. The LibDems were a safe refuge for those normally Tories, Remainers worried about No Deal. No Deal having been used merely as a negotiating ploy, it has now vanished as a concern.
3. Skyr is bland and not to the taste of many. Better than Corbyn, but...
Indeed if you look at the poll the LDs are now being completely screwed, their social democratic wing who disliked Corbyn have gone to Labour now Starmer is their leader and their anti No Deal Tory Remainer voters have returned home to the Tories now we have passed the Brexit Deal.
So that just leaves the LDs with the most diehard of diehard Remainers like Roger, unfortunately for them he is now living in France and still in the EU rather than touching his feet back upon this godforsaken Brexit land
European Medicines Agency recommended a conditional marketing authorization, which comes with more strings attached for drugmakers than the British emergency authorization procedures. As a result, if there are any unforeseen issues with the vaccines, the U.K. government will be held liable; while in the EU, drugmakers would be on the hook.
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
Can you tell me which sites are manufacturing the vaccine in the UK?
Thank you. I know a bit about this process as I used to work in Biopharm before my career change. From that it's only really being manufactured at two sites in the UK with a further site in the Netherlands, with the filling being done elsewhere which is fairly common practice (this is the part I was previously involved with).
Not like that's a bad thing at all. I wonder if the bottleneck is in the actual manufacture of the fluid, in the filling, or in the batch release.
The Times suggested it was an issue with vialing it at a German company and the doses have been shipped to Wrexham which isn't having the same issues. Apparently that's part of why there's only half a million doses currently approved for use, the Wrexham decanted doses are currently all undergoing approval but it shouldn't be long until they have a decent amount of ongoing supply.
Following the release of the Parliamentary Electoral register for 2 March 2020 today by the Office of National Statistics, details for the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies have been announced by the four UK Boundary Commissions. This includes the number of constituencies allocated to each part of the UK and the Electoral Quota (average electorate) for each constituency.
For the 2023 Review the Electoral Quota (EQ) will be 73,392.
In accordance with the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (the 1986 Act), as amended, the number of Parliamentary constituencies across the UK will remain at 650. Across the UK, the number of constituencies has been calculated using the Saint Lague formula as follows:
– in England 543 in place of the current 533;
– in Scotland 57 in place of the current 59
– in Wales 32 in place of the current 40; and
– in Northern Ireland 18 constituencies will be retained
IMO there are three things that determine current polling.
1) We are are still in the middle of a crisis, the govt gets the benefit of the doubt and 'rallying round' support. When the crisis ends, the reckoning will begin and questions will be asked about what comes next. Until then politics is suspended.
2) Labour were a loooooong way back in 2019 and the party is still dealing with the aftermath. There is a lot of ground to recover both internally and externally.
3) We are three years from a general election, after two recent elections and a chaotic period there is not yet a huge appetite from change.
European Medicines Agency recommended a conditional marketing authorization, which comes with more strings attached for drugmakers than the British emergency authorization procedures. As a result, if there are any unforeseen issues with the vaccines, the U.K. government will be held liable; while in the EU, drugmakers would be on the hook.
How might that change drug makers behaviour/speed of roll out?
I don't think the UK can comment. After all, every Wednesday:
"This morning I had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others. In addition to my duties in this House, I shall have further such meetings later today"
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
Can you tell me which sites are manufacturing the vaccine in the UK?
Thank you. I know a bit about this process as I used to work in Biopharm before my career change. From that it's only really being manufactured at two sites in the UK with a further site in the Netherlands, with the filling being done elsewhere which is fairly common practice (this is the part I was previously involved with).
Not like that's a bad thing at all. I wonder if the bottleneck is in the actual manufacture of the fluid, in the filling, or in the batch release.
The Times suggested it was an issue with vialing it at a German company and the doses have been shipped to Wrexham which isn't having the same issues. Apparently that's part of why there's only half a million doses currently approved for use, the Wrexham decanted doses are currently all undergoing approval but it shouldn't be long until they have a decent amount of ongoing supply.
Sounds very positive. Let's hope there's no more problems...
On developing nations, outside of South Africa and some of the more connected North African countries (Tunisia) - infection rates in much of Africa, Sierra Leone for instance are really low. These countries dealt with Ebola, have youngish populations, v limited obesity and aren't particularly globally connected - so they may well get the vaccine later than others but overall should fare well.
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
Can you tell me which sites are manufacturing the vaccine in the UK?
These are the conditions for granting of the interim authorisation for the AstraZeneca vaccine in the UK. I notice that that specific conditions largely relate to production and distribution. I don't know if this is normal.
I get the impression the MHRA is cutting some corners on AZ authorisation. The EMA, Canada and the USA are, I think, holding back for more data from AZ that should be forthcoming this quarter. I would still take it though.
And there is already a concern about the latter stage, with the availability of key ingredients and equipment including glass vials a key issue. England's deputy chief medical officer Prof Jonathan Van-Tam says fill and finish was a "critically short resource across the globe".
I presume we are going to find out that China makes them all.
We supposedly invested in fill and finish in the UK right at the start of the vaccine programme, so hopefully we are able to meet our own needs. MHRA seem confident that they can handle the testing and approval of batches too. I expect that it simply takes time to ramp up.
Following the release of the Parliamentary Electoral register for 2 March 2020 today by the Office of National Statistics, details for the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies have been announced by the four UK Boundary Commissions. This includes the number of constituencies allocated to each part of the UK and the Electoral Quota (average electorate) for each constituency.
For the 2023 Review the Electoral Quota (EQ) will be 73,392.
In accordance with the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (the 1986 Act), as amended, the number of Parliamentary constituencies across the UK will remain at 650. Across the UK, the number of constituencies has been calculated using the Saint Lague formula as follows:
– in England 543 in place of the current 533;
– in Scotland 57 in place of the current 59
– in Wales 32 in place of the current 40; and
– in Northern Ireland 18 constituencies will be retained
Not my take at all. Starmer got his MPs to vote for the deal. It was a sell out by Starmer and if I'd been taking part in the poll I wouldn't have said Labour. Johnson has to own it hook line and sinker!
Though Labour were unchanged.
Perhaps your "Oh how horrific, I just saw a union flag behind Starmer, and he didn't vote to reject a deal with Europe - and there's someone from Huddersfield, I better have a fit of vapors and a nice walk around Paris which is so much better than anywhere in the horrid United Kingdom to recover" brand of socialism isn't representative of the Great British public?
Close, but its the good folk of Hartlepool that gives Roger a fit of the vapours!
IMO there are three things that determine current polling.
1) We are are still in the middle of a crisis, the govt gets the benefit of the doubt and 'rallying round' support. When the crisis ends, the reckoning will begin and questions will be asked about what comes next. Until then politics is suspended.
2) Labour were a loooooong way back in 2019 and the party is still dealing with the aftermath. There is a lot of ground to recover both internally and externally.
3) We are three years from a general election, after two recent elections and a chaotic period there is not yet a huge appetite from change.
4) Sir Abstainalot is an out of his depth nonentity
IMO there are three things that determine current polling.
1) We are are still in the middle of a crisis, the govt gets the benefit of the doubt and 'rallying round' support. When the crisis ends, the reckoning will begin and questions will be asked about what comes next. Until then politics is suspended.
2) Labour were a loooooong way back in 2019 and the party is still dealing with the aftermath. There is a lot of ground to recover both internally and externally.
3) We are three years from a general election, after two recent elections and a chaotic period there is not yet a huge appetite from change.
4) Sir Abstainalot is an out of his depth nonentity
He may be many things, but he is certainly not out of his depth or a nonentity. Are you still a Corbynite ultra?
I don't think the UK can comment. After all, every Wednesday:
"This morning I had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others. In addition to my duties in this House, I shall have further such meetings later today"
Yes, but then he has to provide detail on actualities. That's just ceremony at this point.
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
Can you tell me which sites are manufacturing the vaccine in the UK?
Thank you. I know a bit about this process as I used to work in Biopharm before my career change. From that it's only really being manufactured at two sites in the UK with a further site in the Netherlands, with the filling being done elsewhere which is fairly common practice (this is the part I was previously involved with).
Not like that's a bad thing at all. I wonder if the bottleneck is in the actual manufacture of the fluid, in the filling, or in the batch release.
The Times suggested it was an issue with vialing it at a German company and the doses have been shipped to Wrexham which isn't having the same issues. Apparently that's part of why there's only half a million doses currently approved for use, the Wrexham decanted doses are currently all undergoing approval but it shouldn't be long until they have a decent amount of ongoing supply.
Sounds very positive. Let's hope there's no more problems...
Yes it does, AZ told The Times that they will have a domestic supply chain of 2m per week by the middle of this month, plus what we get from Pfizer it adds up to a huge number. I think in two weeks the bottleneck becomes distribution and end of line jabbing rather than supply which is a good problem to have and one I hope the NHS is equal to.
European Medicines Agency recommended a conditional marketing authorization, which comes with more strings attached for drugmakers than the British emergency authorization procedures. As a result, if there are any unforeseen issues with the vaccines, the U.K. government will be held liable; while in the EU, drugmakers would be on the hook.
During a global pandemic and national emergency I know which authorisation I find smarter.
The figures can easily be manipulated, although personally I thought yesterday's pledge was one of Johnson's more doable boasts. Nonetheless, is it still wise to be throwing out pledges when few of the previous pledges appear to have been delivered? That said, a failed Johnson promise doesn't seem to do him any harm. Failure is covered by the next bigger and better ambition.
Anyway the fanbois on here are happy with their hero, so all is good!
They really have never heard of the phrase underpromise and over deliver. If they just took the RyanAir acheduking approach and had said our target is mid March for these groups, that will be faster than anywhere else in Europe, most people would have gone hmmm ok...then if they get it done by start of March, they get to claim victory.
Instead, what will happen is some production delays and slower than forecast rate of jabbing and before we know it the timeline has slipped to start of March, without really AZN, the government or the NHS really doing anything massively wrong....but theh will be bashed from pillar to post.
Assuming the lockdown will actually contain the current outbreak, I think we're still due one more round of opening up too quickly and reintroducing restrictions too slowly, because any fall in cases will be ascribed to the vaccines even though it is still primarily our behaviour that controls the R rate. Unrestricted R seems well above 3, and even 50% vaccinated with a 70% efficacy only brings it down by a third. And the partial protection also still leaves plenty of people to potentially get seriously ill.
I think that its very unlikely that even Defcom 5 (you sure about this? Ed) is going to stop the spread of the new variant. At best we are likely to see a levelling off of cases at a very high level until the vaccines start to have an effect. We simply cannot operate, feed ourselves, look after our sick, care for our relatives, etc without a sufficient level of interaction for this new variant to spread. The vaccine is the only hope.
Lockdown and vaccine, both together, as hard as possible and as quick as possible is our only hope. Even then, it's touch and go whether we avoid meltdown. Parts of England are already on the brink.
If hard lockdown can just about stabilise cases (there is some evidence for this in South Wales and Essex), vaccination can allow us to ease off gently over time. Bear in mind we need to get hospitalisation rates down, not just the fatality rates and this means vaccinating more than just the most vulnerable population.
Whilst that is true the most vulnerable are also the most likely to require medical treatment so vaccinating the 20% most at risk should have a significant effect on hospitalisation rates too.
Indeed, and much more than on the R rate. Say those 20% give you a 50% reduction in hospitalisation rate. That then means that the health system can cope with double the case rate.
But unfortunately that's a one-time boost, whereas cases are multiplied by the R rate week after week after week. Cutting 20% off the R rate allows a small easing of restrictions, but if you ease too much, the doubled case capacity can very quickly be used up again.
The Tories get a poll boost every time Brexit is front and centre. There is clearly a substantial constituency who aren't by nature automatic Conservatives but "because Brexit." The challenge will be keeping them as it fades away. Of course that means it is in the government interest to ensure it doesn't... Was it @david_herdson who said "Get Brexit Done" was so effective it wouldn't surprise if it were the slogan in 2024?
Not my take at all. Starmer got his MPs to vote for the deal. It was a sell out by Starmer and if I'd been taking part in the poll I wouldn't have said Labour. Johnson has to own it hook line and sinker!
Sorry but that analysis doesn't stand up. If that were the case and you were typical of the vote move in this poll then you should have seen Labour drop but Tories not go up up (assuming I believe correctly that you would not vote Tory even though you are not supporting Labour on this)
What you have actually seen is the Labour vote stay the same, the Lib Dem vote drop and the Tory vote increase. I can't reconcile this with an anti-Brexit protest vote against Starmer.
What is amazing me at the moment is that the Tory vote is holding up (or increasing) in spite of the dogs dinner Johnson is making of Covid.
1. The wider population is rather more forgiving of the Govt's actions on Covid than here, especially now a vaccine has been wisely been planned for and is being administered to those they know at greatest risk.
2. The LibDems were a safe refuge for those normally Tories, Remainers worried about No Deal. No Deal having been used merely as a negotiating ploy, it has now vanished as a concern.
3. Skyr is bland and not to the taste of many. Better than Corbyn, but...
1 is probably very, very relevant. How many people now have a loved one who has been vaccinated? Must be a rapidly increasing number. I don't care about the virus for myself but I am delighted half my grandparents have been vaccinated and the other half are scheduled to be soon. A number of others must be in the same position, getting the ones we love vaccinated is going to be a tremendous relief.
Not my take at all. Starmer got his MPs to vote for the deal. It was a sell out by Starmer and if I'd been taking part in the poll I wouldn't have said Labour. Johnson has to own it hook line and sinker!
Sorry but that analysis doesn't stand up. If that were the case and you were typical of the vote move in this poll then you should have seen Labour drop but Tories not go up up (assuming I believe correctly that you would not vote Tory even though you are not supporting Labour on this)
What you have actually seen is the Labour vote stay the same, the Lib Dem vote drop and the Tory vote increase. I can't reconcile this with an anti-Brexit protest vote against Starmer.
What is amazing me at the moment is that the Tory vote is holding up (or increasing) in spite of the dogs dinner Johnson is making of Covid.
1. The wider population is rather more forgiving of the Govt's actions on Covid than here, especially now a vaccine has been wisely been planned for and is being administered to those they know at greatest risk.
2. The LibDems were a safe refuge for those normally Tories, Remainers worried about No Deal. No Deal having been used merely as a negotiating ploy, it has now vanished as a concern.
3. Skyr is bland and not to the taste of many. Better than Corbyn, but...
1 is probably very, very relevant. How many people now have a loved one who has been vaccinated? Must be a rapidly increasing number. I don't care about the virus for myself but I am delighted half my grandparents have been vaccinated and the other half are scheduled to be soon. A number of others must be in the same position, getting the ones we love vaccinated is going to be a tremendous relief.
Sturgeon closed schools weeks ago. Boris closed them yesterday. How on earth can you try and concoct the notion that Sturgeon is front running Johnson by a couple of hours?
Because it fits into the preconception/excuse/straw to grasp at that the SG is as shite as the UK/England one.
I've noticed very little comment by the PBTories about the much lower hospitalization rate per 100K in Scotland in recent months, and the fact that the SG has called its lockdown at a much lower level than did the other three home nations, but did so when the numbers started going up sharply. Whether this is going to be sufficient is another matter, of course, but it does offer a counterexample of how things might have been done.
I'd wait until seeing the back dated hospital figures that will be released today before drawing too many conclusions.
This is a make or break day for how fucked Scotland is after 5 days of flying blind
Any idea why they stopped reporting for so long? Timing a tad inopportune.
Fucked if I know. Sweden has done exactly the same.
It's an exciting day or backed dated day-of-report apocalypse headline numbers
Not my take at all. Starmer got his MPs to vote for the deal. It was a sell out by Starmer and if I'd been taking part in the poll I wouldn't have said Labour. Johnson has to own it hook line and sinker!
Sorry but that analysis doesn't stand up. If that were the case and you were typical of the vote move in this poll then you should have seen Labour drop but Tories not go up up (assuming I believe correctly that you would not vote Tory even though you are not supporting Labour on this)
What you have actually seen is the Labour vote stay the same, the Lib Dem vote drop and the Tory vote increase. I can't reconcile this with an anti-Brexit protest vote against Starmer.
What is amazing me at the moment is that the Tory vote is holding up (or increasing) in spite of the dogs dinner Johnson is making of Covid.
1. The wider population is rather more forgiving of the Govt's actions on Covid than here, especially now a vaccine has been wisely been planned for and is being administered to those they know at greatest risk.
2. The LibDems were a safe refuge for those normally Tories, Remainers worried about No Deal. No Deal having been used merely as a negotiating ploy, it has now vanished as a concern.
3. Skyr is bland and not to the taste of many. Better than Corbyn, but...
1 is probably very, very relevant. How many people now have a loved one who has been vaccinated? Must be a rapidly increasing number. I don't care about the virus for myself but I am delighted half my grandparents have been vaccinated and the other half are scheduled to be soon. A number of others must be in the same position, getting the ones we love vaccinated is going to be a tremendous relief.
As for 3: Keir is Kinnock to Corbyn's Foot.
Keir Starmer's closest equivalent is John Smith.
I see him more as IDS he is certainly no John Smith
Johnson & Johnson might be the vaccine that gets us to proper herd immunity
Agreed
Any idea when it might get authorised??
Trial being unblinded in Feb, so approval in mid March, doses by around April. We have 30m on order and an option for 22m more for late 2021. If it does come by April then it could be a huge tool in our arsenal against the virus as it's a single jab regime.
Not my take at all. Starmer got his MPs to vote for the deal. It was a sell out by Starmer and if I'd been taking part in the poll I wouldn't have said Labour. Johnson has to own it hook line and sinker!
Sorry but that analysis doesn't stand up. If that were the case and you were typical of the vote move in this poll then you should have seen Labour drop but Tories not go up up (assuming I believe correctly that you would not vote Tory even though you are not supporting Labour on this)
What you have actually seen is the Labour vote stay the same, the Lib Dem vote drop and the Tory vote increase. I can't reconcile this with an anti-Brexit protest vote against Starmer.
What is amazing me at the moment is that the Tory vote is holding up (or increasing) in spite of the dogs dinner Johnson is making of Covid.
1. The wider population is rather more forgiving of the Govt's actions on Covid than here, especially now a vaccine has been wisely been planned for and is being administered to those they know at greatest risk.
2. The LibDems were a safe refuge for those normally Tories, Remainers worried about No Deal. No Deal having been used merely as a negotiating ploy, it has now vanished as a concern.
3. Skyr is bland and not to the taste of many. Better than Corbyn, but...
1 is probably very, very relevant. How many people now have a loved one who has been vaccinated? Must be a rapidly increasing number. I don't care about the virus for myself but I am delighted half my grandparents have been vaccinated and the other half are scheduled to be soon. A number of others must be in the same position, getting the ones we love vaccinated is going to be a tremendous relief.
As for 3: Keir is Kinnock to Corbyn's Foot.
Keir Starmer's closest equivalent is John Smith.
I see him more as IDS he is certainly no John Smith
You thought Corbyn was going to PM, so your judgement is a little out of whack.
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
Can you tell me which sites are manufacturing the vaccine in the UK?
Thank you. I know a bit about this process as I used to work in Biopharm before my career change. From that it's only really being manufactured at two sites in the UK with a further site in the Netherlands, with the filling being done elsewhere which is fairly common practice (this is the part I was previously involved with).
Not like that's a bad thing at all. I wonder if the bottleneck is in the actual manufacture of the fluid, in the filling, or in the batch release.
The Times suggested it was an issue with vialing it at a German company and the doses have been shipped to Wrexham which isn't having the same issues. Apparently that's part of why there's only half a million doses currently approved for use, the Wrexham decanted doses are currently all undergoing approval but it shouldn't be long until they have a decent amount of ongoing supply.
Sounds very positive. Let's hope there's no more problems...
Yes it does, AZ told The Times that they will have a domestic supply chain of 2m per week by the middle of this month, plus what we get from Pfizer it adds up to a huge number. I think in two weeks the bottleneck becomes distribution and end of line jabbing rather than supply which is a good problem to have and one I hope the NHS is equal to.
I'm hoping like the 100k per week that the 2m per week is the beginning and not limit of the aspiration.
Once we've hit 2 million per week we should be looking to move on to 3 million then 4 million. After which point we'll probably be hitting herd immunity before long so doubt it will need to move on past that.
IMO there are three things that determine current polling.
1) We are are still in the middle of a crisis, the govt gets the benefit of the doubt and 'rallying round' support. When the crisis ends, the reckoning will begin and questions will be asked about what comes next. Until then politics is suspended.
2) Labour were a loooooong way back in 2019 and the party is still dealing with the aftermath. There is a lot of ground to recover both internally and externally.
3) We are three years from a general election, after two recent elections and a chaotic period there is not yet a huge appetite from change.
I wish you were right. I fear it's more simple than that. I'd say there are two reasons for the current polling
1. 55% of the country feel sour about Brexit. Labour have now totally capitulated. Is there a single ex Labour voter who will be impressed by Starmer's damascene conversion? The man who fought this scourge for four years now appears to be it's most wholehearted supporter. If a deal is worth doing now why wasn't it when Mrs May suggested it? We could have avoided Johnson.
2. An invisible shadow cabinet. A shadow chancellor who has been given the chance of a lifetime is completely out of her depth and invisible. It all feeds in to the idea that Starmer lacks judgement.
He's got time but he needs advice badly. He could do a lot worse than getting Tony back on board or at least the brighter Milliband.
The Tories get a poll boost every time Brexit is front and centre. There is clearly a substantial constituency who aren't by nature automatic Conservatives but "because Brexit." The challenge will be keeping them as it fades away. Of course that means it is in the government interest to ensure it doesn't... Was it @david_herdson who said "Get Brexit Done" was so effective it wouldn't surprise if it were the slogan in 2024?
Johnson & Johnson might be the vaccine that gets us to proper herd immunity
Agreed
Any idea when it might get authorised??
Trial being unblinded in Feb, so approval in mid March, doses by around April. We have 30m on order and an option for 22m more for late 2021. If it does come by April then it could be a huge tool in our arsenal against the virus as it's a single jab regime.
Do you have a source for an April delivery to the UK? The only thing I found said "mid 2021", which implies a bit later.
IMO there are three things that determine current polling.
1) We are are still in the middle of a crisis, the govt gets the benefit of the doubt and 'rallying round' support. When the crisis ends, the reckoning will begin and questions will be asked about what comes next. Until then politics is suspended.
2) Labour were a loooooong way back in 2019 and the party is still dealing with the aftermath. There is a lot of ground to recover both internally and externally.
3) We are three years from a general election, after two recent elections and a chaotic period there is not yet a huge appetite from change.
4) Sir Abstainalot is an out of his depth nonentity
He may be many things, but he is certainly not out of his depth or a nonentity. Are you still a Corbynite ultra?
Corbyn has gone yesterdays man.
SKS is not the man to bring back even 2017 levels of support imo
His performance this week has been pathetic and weak
Not my take at all. Starmer got his MPs to vote for the deal. It was a sell out by Starmer and if I'd been taking part in the poll I wouldn't have said Labour. Johnson has to own it hook line and sinker!
Sorry but that analysis doesn't stand up. If that were the case and you were typical of the vote move in this poll then you should have seen Labour drop but Tories not go up up (assuming I believe correctly that you would not vote Tory even though you are not supporting Labour on this)
What you have actually seen is the Labour vote stay the same, the Lib Dem vote drop and the Tory vote increase. I can't reconcile this with an anti-Brexit protest vote against Starmer.
What is amazing me at the moment is that the Tory vote is holding up (or increasing) in spite of the dogs dinner Johnson is making of Covid.
1. The wider population is rather more forgiving of the Govt's actions on Covid than here, especially now a vaccine has been wisely been planned for and is being administered to those they know at greatest risk.
2. The LibDems were a safe refuge for those normally Tories, Remainers worried about No Deal. No Deal having been used merely as a negotiating ploy, it has now vanished as a concern.
3. Skyr is bland and not to the taste of many. Better than Corbyn, but...
1 is probably very, very relevant. How many people now have a loved one who has been vaccinated? Must be a rapidly increasing number. I don't care about the virus for myself but I am delighted half my grandparents have been vaccinated and the other half are scheduled to be soon. A number of others must be in the same position, getting the ones we love vaccinated is going to be a tremendous relief.
As for 3: Keir is Kinnock to Corbyn's Foot.
Keir Starmer's closest equivalent is John Smith.
That is not a very encouraging comparison for SKS.
Both Labour & the LibDems have made the same mistake.
They gambled, when they should have played safe (Corbyn, Swinson).
They played safe, when they should have gambled (Starmer, Davey).
IMO there are three things that determine current polling.
1) We are are still in the middle of a crisis, the govt gets the benefit of the doubt and 'rallying round' support. When the crisis ends, the reckoning will begin and questions will be asked about what comes next. Until then politics is suspended.
2) Labour were a loooooong way back in 2019 and the party is still dealing with the aftermath. There is a lot of ground to recover both internally and externally.
3) We are three years from a general election, after two recent elections and a chaotic period there is not yet a huge appetite from change.
I wish you were right. I fear it's more simple than that. I'd say there are two reasons for the current polling
1. 55% of the country feel sour about Brexit. Labour have now totally capitulated. Is there a single ex Labour voter who will be impressed by Starmer's damascene conversion? The man who fought this scourge for four years now appears to be it's most wholehearted supporter. If it's worth doing now why wasn't it when Mrs May suggested it? We could have avoided Johnson.
2. An invisible shadow cabinet. A shadow chancellor who has been given the chance of a lifetime is completely out of her depth and invisible. It all feeds in to the idea that Starmer lacks judgement.
He's got time but he needs advice badly. He could do a lot worse than getting Tony back on board or at least the brighter Milliband.
I'm agree with some of this, but I think it's Ed Miliband who's in fact marginally the brighter Miliband. He demolished Johnson in the Commons a couple of months ago, in the kind of Commons performance his brother didn't put on. His brother is also very bright for a politician and an excellent organiser and motivator, but Ed is probably the more innovative policymaker.
IMO there are three things that determine current polling.
1) We are are still in the middle of a crisis, the govt gets the benefit of the doubt and 'rallying round' support. When the crisis ends, the reckoning will begin and questions will be asked about what comes next. Until then politics is suspended.
2) Labour were a loooooong way back in 2019 and the party is still dealing with the aftermath. There is a lot of ground to recover both internally and externally.
3) We are three years from a general election, after two recent elections and a chaotic period there is not yet a huge appetite from change.
I think this is broadly right. Just how bad Corbyn did cannot be underestimated, and the unusual situation. When change comes it could be sudden and dramatic
Have to say the India export ban, while predicable, does flummox a lot of countries relying on the SII to supply them with the AZ vaccine in the near term. It probay sets global vaccination programmes back by three months. Thankfully the government saw it coming and we've made the right decisions on domestic manufacturing for our domestic vaccine requirements. It's going to be a tough first quarter for the rest of the world.
Can you tell me which sites are manufacturing the vaccine in the UK?
Thank you. I know a bit about this process as I used to work in Biopharm before my career change. From that it's only really being manufactured at two sites in the UK with a further site in the Netherlands, with the filling being done elsewhere which is fairly common practice (this is the part I was previously involved with).
Not like that's a bad thing at all. I wonder if the bottleneck is in the actual manufacture of the fluid, in the filling, or in the batch release.
The Times suggested it was an issue with vialing it at a German company and the doses have been shipped to Wrexham which isn't having the same issues. Apparently that's part of why there's only half a million doses currently approved for use, the Wrexham decanted doses are currently all undergoing approval but it shouldn't be long until they have a decent amount of ongoing supply.
Sounds very positive. Let's hope there's no more problems...
Yes it does, AZ told The Times that they will have a domestic supply chain of 2m per week by the middle of this month, plus what we get from Pfizer it adds up to a huge number. I think in two weeks the bottleneck becomes distribution and end of line jabbing rather than supply which is a good problem to have and one I hope the NHS is equal to.
I'm hoping like the 100k per week that the 2m per week is the beginning and not limit of the aspiration.
Once we've hit 2 million per week we should be looking to move on to 3 million then 4 million. After which point we'll probably be hitting herd immunity before long so doubt it will need to move on past that.
Yes, in April we could conceivably have AZ, Pfizer, Moderna and J&J all delivering vaccine doses, it's up to the government and NHS to ensure we're in a position to use them all without delay.
IMO there are three things that determine current polling.
1) We are are still in the middle of a crisis, the govt gets the benefit of the doubt and 'rallying round' support. When the crisis ends, the reckoning will begin and questions will be asked about what comes next. Until then politics is suspended.
2) Labour were a loooooong way back in 2019 and the party is still dealing with the aftermath. There is a lot of ground to recover both internally and externally.
3) We are three years from a general election, after two recent elections and a chaotic period there is not yet a huge appetite from change.
I wish you were right. I fear it's more simple than that. I'd say there are two reasons for the current polling
1. 55% of the country feel sour about Brexit. Labour have now totally capitulated. Is there a single ex Labour voter who will be impressed by Starmer's damascene conversion? The man who fought this scourge for four years now appears to be it's most wholehearted supporter. If it's worth doing now why wasn't it when Mrs May suggested it? We could have avoided Johnson.
2. An invisible shadow cabinet. A shadow chancellor who has been given the chance of a lifetime is completely out of her depth and invisible. It all feeds in to the idea that Starmer lacks judgement.
He's got time but he needs advice badly. He could do a lot worse than getting Tony back on board or at least the brighter Milliband.
You need patience. Starmer had three immediate political tasks over and above the pandemic.
Neutralise Antisemitism in the Labour Party. Neutralise the perception that Labour were far left Neutralise Brexit
He's making decent progress in the most difficult of circumstances.
Yes, in April we could conceivably have AZ, Pfizer, Moderna and J&J all delivering vaccine doses, it's up to the government and NHS to ensure we're in a position to use them all without delay.
As noted elsewhere, the question is not whether the Government will fuck it up.
The only uncertainty is how quickly, and at what scale they will completely fuck it up.
Oh those Republicans! "Prominent conspiratorial-minded figures, such as pro-Trump Georgia lawyer Lin Wood, claimed that Pence could be arrested, tried for treason and executed by firing squad if he did not act on Trump’s behalf. And out in the wilds of the QAnon conspiracy community, the process might not even matter: Pence, some argued, might be a body double, put in place by a Satanic cabal to further its plots." https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/05/maga-trump-revenge-republican-traitors-454924
European Medicines Agency recommended a conditional marketing authorization, which comes with more strings attached for drugmakers than the British emergency authorization procedures. As a result, if there are any unforeseen issues with the vaccines, the U.K. government will be held liable; while in the EU, drugmakers would be on the hook.
On my understanding there are three authorisation regimes in the EU and UK: standard, where authorisation is provided on all data being supplied; conditional, where not all data has been supplied, where it is expected that the drug will meet all conditions on data supplied later and where the balance of need and completeness requires the drug to be released early and exceptional, for highly specific treatments, where the data just doesn't exist.
I think what is happening is that the UK MHRA is authorising vaccines that don't quite meet the "conditional" criteria (if they did, the MHRA would authorise under that category). Instead they are authorising vaccines under the "exceptional" regime designed for one-off type drugs and not mass rollouts. This might expose them to legal risk if something goes wrong.
The Tories get a poll boost every time Brexit is front and centre. There is clearly a substantial constituency who aren't by nature automatic Conservatives but "because Brexit." The challenge will be keeping them as it fades away. Of course that means it is in the government interest to ensure it doesn't... Was it @david_herdson who said "Get Brexit Done" was so effective it wouldn't surprise if it were the slogan in 2024?
2024: Got Brexit Done
Nah, Getting Brexit Done. The revolution never ends, comrade:)
Not my take at all. Starmer got his MPs to vote for the deal. It was a sell out by Starmer and if I'd been taking part in the poll I wouldn't have said Labour. Johnson has to own it hook line and sinker!
Sorry but that analysis doesn't stand up. If that were the case and you were typical of the vote move in this poll then you should have seen Labour drop but Tories not go up up (assuming I believe correctly that you would not vote Tory even though you are not supporting Labour on this)
What you have actually seen is the Labour vote stay the same, the Lib Dem vote drop and the Tory vote increase. I can't reconcile this with an anti-Brexit protest vote against Starmer.
What is amazing me at the moment is that the Tory vote is holding up (or increasing) in spite of the dogs dinner Johnson is making of Covid.
1. The wider population is rather more forgiving of the Govt's actions on Covid than here, especially now a vaccine has been wisely been planned for and is being administered to those they know at greatest risk.
2. The LibDems were a safe refuge for those normally Tories, Remainers worried about No Deal. No Deal having been used merely as a negotiating ploy, it has now vanished as a concern.
3. Skyr is bland and not to the taste of many. Better than Corbyn, but...
1 is probably very, very relevant. How many people now have a loved one who has been vaccinated? Must be a rapidly increasing number. I don't care about the virus for myself but I am delighted half my grandparents have been vaccinated and the other half are scheduled to be soon. A number of others must be in the same position, getting the ones we love vaccinated is going to be a tremendous relief.
As for 3: Keir is Kinnock to Corbyn's Foot.
Keir Starmer's closest equivalent is John Smith.
I see him more as IDS he is certainly no John Smith
IDS of course also took over after a seismic event, 9/11 as opposed to Covid, after a catastrophic landslide defeat, 2001 for the Tories, 2019 for Labour. IDS was also seen as deathly dull like Starmer but less reviled than the previous leader by swing voters, for Corbyn read Hague.
Polling also showed IDS making slow and steady progress in the polls and particularly in local elections despite a dominant PM, for Boris read Blair.
Starmer should focus on steady as she goes and look to make gains in the local elections and build Labour's base, there are still 3 years until the general election and of course provided Scotland stays in the UK he does not even need to win most seats to become PM provided he can get a hung parliament and SNP support
The Dems are indeed favourite in both races but are still a shade of odds against to do what they need to do - the double. I'm feeling bullish but also nervous. It means a lot this one. I do not want to see Joe tangled up and able to do nothing of much import. He deserves better than that, having saved his country and the wider world from the gruesome prospect of a 2nd Trump term.
The vote was anti Trump, just, for which Biden was able to capitalise as a relative pragmatist and centrist, the vote was not for a Democratic landslide and to shift the US left
Casting vote in a tied Senate + Slim majority in the House + Centrist POTUS and Veep does NOT = a Radical shift Left.
It just means a chance of getting a few things done.
Yes, in April we could conceivably have AZ, Pfizer, Moderna and J&J all delivering vaccine doses, it's up to the government and NHS to ensure we're in a position to use them all without delay.
As noted elsewhere, the question is not whether the Government will fuck it up.
The only uncertainty is how quickly, and at what scale they will completely fuck it up.
It really doesn't matter. Boris will be Boris. Another +5 opinion poll points on their way.
The Tories get a poll boost every time Brexit is front and centre. There is clearly a substantial constituency who aren't by nature automatic Conservatives but "because Brexit." The challenge will be keeping them as it fades away. Of course that means it is in the government interest to ensure it doesn't... Was it @david_herdson who said "Get Brexit Done" was so effective it wouldn't surprise if it were the slogan in 2024?
2024: Got Brexit Done
Sadly I don't think that will be the case. I suspect we are going to have years of moaning about the nasty EU because they won't let us do this or that.
That's some what harsh. Brexit was decided finally at the 2019 GE. Everything that followed was about the how. There is nothing anyone could have done to stop it, but they could have made it even worse.
Thought about it yesterday, but we have enough in the freezer and frankly, the supplies were never a problem after the first week of lockdown. The doom-pornsters were just left with a billion bog rolls.
The best move I made was I bought a second freezer in February, followed by a big CostCo trip. Months of meat, fruit and veg.
We bought an extra freezer in late Feb and asked at the checkout if there had been a run on them. The assistant looked at us as if we were mad. I wonder what they thought a week later...
Our fridge/freezer died during the panic run when the shelves were at their most empty. We hadn't panic-bought anything just shopped as normal but suddenly all our fresh and frozen produce was spoilt and we had what was in the cupboards only.
We survived just fine off the cupboards until our new fridge/freezer was delivered. I then went to the shops and bought what I could, there was no fresh chicken or other products we'd normally have in, but there was enough to get to keep everyone happy even if we altered our diet for a few days.
All in all left with the distinct impression there really was no reason to panic. Even though we lost all our fresh produce at the very worst possible moment nobody went hungry - like I suspect most families there's enough beans, soup and other random stuff accumulated in tins in the cupboard to live off even without anything fresh for a while.
In the times before the Emergency it would be my habit to go to the supermarket several times a week - we have two within easy walking distance. Sometimes if they happened not to have exactly what I wanted at the first I'd walk to the second for it.
The point of stocking-up is to reduce my contact with the supermarket by an order of magnitude on this previous behaviour. It's not because I'm worried about going hungry.
Exactly. I've managed to avoid going in to any shop since March. Expecting frequent deliveries is a bit much. Once a fortnight is just about justifiable although we've often gone longer than that.
Yes, in April we could conceivably have AZ, Pfizer, Moderna and J&J all delivering vaccine doses, it's up to the government and NHS to ensure we're in a position to use them all without delay.
As noted elsewhere, the question is not whether the Government will fuck it up.
The only uncertainty is how quickly, and at what scale they will completely fuck it up.
You said this about no deal for a year, and yet here we are with a brexit deal. You said this about the border for a year, and yet here we are no border chaos.
One day soon, Scott, you'll learn that your echo chamber on twitter knows fuck all about fuck all. The NHS is one of the most well equipped organisations in the world for vaccinations.
Comments
Unlike PM who is spaffing money at Tory donors quicker than he produces kids
What a terrible choice faffer or spaffer
Perhaps your "Oh how horrific, I just saw a union flag behind Starmer, and he didn't vote to reject a deal with Europe - and there's someone from Huddersfield, I better have a fit of vapors and a nice walk around Paris which is so much better than anywhere in the horrid United Kingdom to recover" brand of socialism isn't representative of the Great British public?
And ultimately it makes little differrence as to why the new strain spreads more quickly. It still needs to be stopped.
For the 2023 Review the Electoral Quota (EQ) will be 73,392.
In accordance with the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (the 1986 Act), as amended, the number of Parliamentary constituencies across the UK will remain at 650. Across the UK, the number of constituencies has been calculated using the Saint Lague formula as follows:
– in England 543 in place of the current 533;
– in Scotland 57 in place of the current 59
– in Wales 32 in place of the current 40; and
– in Northern Ireland 18 constituencies will be retained
https://news.causewaycoastcommunity.co.uk/ni-news/2023-review-electoral-quota-and-allocation-of-constituencies-announced/
The Welsh are going to be pissed off.
What you have actually seen is the Labour vote stay the same, the Lib Dem vote drop and the Tory vote increase. I can't reconcile this with an anti-Brexit protest vote against Starmer.
What is amazing me at the moment is that the Tory vote is holding up (or increasing) in spite of the dogs dinner Johnson is making of Covid.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55488724
I presume we are going to find out that China makes them all.
UK: August 14
EU: October 8
http://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/uk_agrees_on_covid-19_vaccine_deals_with_j_and_j_and_novavax_1346890
https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-european-commission-approval-of-agreement-to-supply-200-million-doses-of-janssens-covid-19-vaccine-candidate
Our school's half-term is 15-19 February. So already announced is that school won't be reopening until Monday 22/2 at the very, very earliest which already is the end of the month practically. The following week begins 1/3 with end of term 26/3 which takes us then to mid-April at the next earliest already scheduled.
If Johnson is indicating early March, then we can generally add at least a month on to discover what the real number for the full lockdown will be. And that is what Whitty and Vallance will indicate today, because they aren't accomplished at being economical with the truth.
I stopped posting almost anything on Youtube years ago when they deleted a video correctly using copyrighted material for critique after a copyright complaint.
Far too kneejerk.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9111699/How-Oxford-vaccine-made.html
Whitty and Vallance may well let the cat out of the bag today though. LOL.
Localised to the developing nations that want that it will be set back but globally 1/6th of the world's population is Indian so if Indians are vaccinated first that's still a significant chunk of global population immunised, after which the vaccine can then be rolled out to the other nations waiting for their turn.
From that it's only really being manufactured at two sites in the UK with a further site in the Netherlands, with the filling being done elsewhere which is fairly common practice (this is the part I was previously involved with).
Not like that's a bad thing at all. I wonder if the bottleneck is in the actual manufacture of the fluid, in the filling, or in the batch release.
https://inews.co.uk/news/science/covid-vaccines-first-doses-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-manufactured-overseas-785898
On the India question, I note that the PM is still planning to go there next week and I wonder if he'll discuss vaccine manufacturing with the Indian government.
2. The LibDems were a safe refuge for those normally Tories, Remainers worried about No Deal. No Deal having been used merely as a negotiating ploy, it has now vanished as a concern.
3. Skyr is bland and not to the taste of many. Better than Corbyn, but...
EDIT: Seems this changed just now.
https://twitter.com/Mollie_Malone1/status/1346423277263216648/photo/1
Johnny Appleseed a-seeding and a-planting,
works from early in the morning to late in the evening
https://twitter.com/KEStorey/status/1346423327808757762?s=20
So that just leaves the LDs with the most diehard of diehard Remainers like Roger, unfortunately for them he is now living in France and still in the EU rather than touching his feet back upon this godforsaken Brexit land
European Medicines Agency recommended a conditional marketing authorization, which comes with more strings attached for drugmakers than the British emergency authorization procedures. As a result, if there are any unforeseen issues with the vaccines, the U.K. government will be held liable; while in the EU, drugmakers would be on the hook.
1) We are are still in the middle of a crisis, the govt gets the benefit of the doubt and 'rallying round' support. When the crisis ends, the reckoning will begin and questions will be asked about what comes next. Until then politics is suspended.
2) Labour were a loooooong way back in 2019 and the party is still dealing with the aftermath. There is a lot of ground to recover both internally and externally.
3) We are three years from a general election, after two recent elections and a chaotic period there is not yet a huge appetite from change.
"This morning I had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others. In addition to my duties in this House, I shall have further such meetings later today"
These countries dealt with Ebola, have youngish populations, v limited obesity and aren't particularly globally connected - so they may well get the vaccine later than others but overall should fare well.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulatory-approval-of-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca/conditions-of-authorisation-for-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca.
I get the impression the MHRA is cutting some corners on AZ authorisation. The EMA, Canada and the USA are, I think, holding back for more data from AZ that should be forthcoming this quarter. I would still take it though.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/04/analysis-south-african-coronavirus-variant-worrying/
https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1346416230111047681?s=21
But unfortunately that's a one-time boost, whereas cases are multiplied by the R rate week after week after week. Cutting 20% off the R rate allows a small easing of restrictions, but if you ease too much, the doubled case capacity can very quickly be used up again.
There is clearly a substantial constituency who aren't by nature automatic Conservatives but "because Brexit."
The challenge will be keeping them as it fades away.
Of course that means it is in the government interest to ensure it doesn't...
Was it @david_herdson who said "Get Brexit Done" was so effective it wouldn't surprise if it were the slogan in 2024?
Any idea when it might get authorised??
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1346189306680012811?s=20
As for 3: Keir is Kinnock to Corbyn's Foot.
Currently in a p3 trial in the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, South Africa and the United States.
GSK/Sanoffi failed at phase 2 - no vaccine has failed from p2 to p3 yet..... *Touches wood*
It's an exciting day or backed dated day-of-report apocalypse headline numbers
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1346405340519260160
Once we've hit 2 million per week we should be looking to move on to 3 million then 4 million. After which point we'll probably be hitting herd immunity before long so doubt it will need to move on past that.
1. 55% of the country feel sour about Brexit. Labour have now totally capitulated. Is there a single ex Labour voter who will be impressed by Starmer's damascene conversion? The man who fought this scourge for four years now appears to be it's most wholehearted supporter. If a deal is worth doing now why wasn't it when Mrs May suggested it? We could have avoided Johnson.
2. An invisible shadow cabinet. A shadow chancellor who has been given the chance of a lifetime is completely out of her depth and invisible. It all feeds in to the idea that Starmer lacks judgement.
He's got time but he needs advice badly. He could do a lot worse than getting Tony back on board or at least the brighter Milliband.
--AS
SKS is not the man to bring back even 2017 levels of support imo
His performance this week has been pathetic and weak
First sign of scrutiny, folds like a cheap suit
Both Labour & the LibDems have made the same mistake.
They gambled, when they should have played safe (Corbyn, Swinson).
They played safe, when they should have gambled (Starmer, Davey).
https://twitter.com/LochfyneLangous/status/1346074482855858179
Neutralise Antisemitism in the Labour Party.
Neutralise the perception that Labour were far left
Neutralise Brexit
He's making decent progress in the most difficult of circumstances.
The only uncertainty is how quickly, and at what scale they will completely fuck it up.
"Prominent conspiratorial-minded figures, such as pro-Trump Georgia lawyer Lin Wood, claimed that Pence could be arrested, tried for treason and executed by firing squad if he did not act on Trump’s behalf. And out in the wilds of the QAnon conspiracy community, the process might not even matter: Pence, some argued, might be a body double, put in place by a Satanic cabal to further its plots."
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/05/maga-trump-revenge-republican-traitors-454924
I think what is happening is that the UK MHRA is authorising vaccines that don't quite meet the "conditional" criteria (if they did, the MHRA would authorise under that category). Instead they are authorising vaccines under the "exceptional" regime designed for one-off type drugs and not mass rollouts. This might expose them to legal risk if something goes wrong.
See sections 1.9 and 1.10 here:
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/marketing-authorisation/pre-authorisation-guidance
Polling also showed IDS making slow and steady progress in the polls and particularly in local elections despite a dominant PM, for Boris read Blair.
Starmer should focus on steady as she goes and look to make gains in the local elections and build Labour's base, there are still 3 years until the general election and of course provided Scotland stays in the UK he does not even need to win most seats to become PM provided he can get a hung parliament and SNP support
It just means a chance of getting a few things done.
https://twitter.com/davidheniguk/status/1346432205464231943?s=21
One day soon, Scott, you'll learn that your echo chamber on twitter knows fuck all about fuck all. The NHS is one of the most well equipped organisations in the world for vaccinations.