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Both Trump and Biden stage Georgia rallies on the eve of today’s Georgia runoffs – politicalbetting.

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 5 in General
Both Trump and Biden stage Georgia rallies on the eve of today’s Georgia runoffs – politicalbetting.com

Trump’s was all about him and appeared like a series of whines particularly against the Republican governor of the state and, of course, the Secretary of State who stood up for democracy in face of huge pressure as we saw in the recording of a phone call he got from the outgoing president.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,354
    edited January 5
    Two more good polls for the Dems in Georgia just out:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/

    I'm feeling a lot more confident than I was a week ago. Back in the autumn I think I might have been the lonely pb.com voice crying in the wilderness when I tipped people bet on Jon Ossoff at 3/1 (boosted) on Betfair Sportsbook. He nearly didn't take it to the run-off but I'm beginning to feel more optimistic that he may pull this off.

    I'm also on Ossoff at 250/1 for 2024 Presidential. A bet that goes into the silly category but stranger things have happened. He's young, ambitious and a very effective debater.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 5,983
    When do we get the results of today's Georgia runoff elections? Georgia is on Eastern Time, so five hours behind GMT.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903
    rcs1000 said:

    Some good news:

    Johnson & Johnson has announced that it plans to apply for FDA authorisation for its CV19 vaccine in February.

    This strongly suggests that we will have positive trial results soon from J&J, and it's important to remember that this vaccine is single dose *and* does not require low temperature storage or transportation.

    That’s great news! The latest mutations have come just early enough to cause chaos, but it really does look now like humanity is going to win against the damn virus.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 2,531
    GA voting is from 7am to 7pm, with initial, partial results reported by counties starting approx 7.30pm.

    However, note that voters at polling places who are already in line at 7pm are eligible to vote, so IF there are long lines, the actual poll closing will be delayed until folks in line have voted.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 2,531
    RAINY NIGHT IN GEORGIA
    by Tony White

    Hoverin' by my suitcase
    Tryin' to find a warm place to spend the night
    Heavy rain's fallin'
    Seems I hear your voice callin' "it's all right"

    A rainy night in Georgia
    A rainy night in Georgia
    Lord, I believe it's rainin' all over the world
    I feel like it's rainin' all over the world

    Neon signs a-flashin'
    Taxicabs and buses passin' through the night
    A distant moanin' of a train
    Seems to play a sad refrain to the night

    But it's a rainy night in Georgia
    Such a rainy night in Georgia
    Lord, I believe it's rainin' all over the world
    I feel like it's rainin' all over the world

    How many times I wondered
    It still comes out the same
    No matter how you look at it or think of it
    It's life and you just got to play the game

    Find me a place in a box car
    So I take my guitar to pass some time
    Late at night when it's hard to rest
    I hold your picture to my chest and I feel fine, I feel fine

    But it's a rainy night in Georgia
    Baby, it's a rainy night in Georgia
    Lord, I believe it's rainin' all over the world
    Kinda lonely now and it's rainin' all over the world
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 5,983
    Sandpit said:

    When do we get the results of today's Georgia runoff elections? Georgia is on Eastern Time, so five hours behind GMT.

    If they count as quick as they did in November, sometime before the end of this month would be good.
    The latest 538 video ended with an Atlanta journalist saying it might take a day or two to count if it is close; half a million or so absentee ballots will not be counted until polls close. I cannot check her paper because the site blocks Europeans over GDPR.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 2,531

    Sandpit said:

    When do we get the results of today's Georgia runoff elections? Georgia is on Eastern Time, so five hours behind GMT.

    If they count as quick as they did in November, sometime before the end of this month would be good.
    The latest 538 video ended with an Atlanta journalist saying it might take a day or two to count if it is close; half a million or so absentee ballots will not be counted until polls close. I cannot check her paper because the site blocks Europeans over GDPR.
    That sounds correct. Even longer if it's VERY close, which could well be the case, in one or both races.

    Fact that there are way fewer races on ballot (the two US Senate races plus whatever other local races that also went to runoff) may speed things somewhat.

    In GA elections are administered at county level, and Peach State has LOTS of counties. Though smaller, rural counties have fewer election workers, they also have smaller number of votes to count, and will tend to finish before larger counties (Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb, Gwinnet) in metro Atlanta.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903
    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    edited January 5
    rcs1000 said:

    Some good news:

    https://www.king5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine/johnson-johnsons-single-dose-vaccine-next-to-seek-emergency-use-authorization

    Johnson & Johnson has announced that it plans to apply for FDA authorisation for its CV19 vaccine in February

    This strongly suggests that we will have positive trial results soon from J&J, and it's important to remember that this vaccine is single dose *and* does not require low temperature storage or transportation.

    That is good news. (Though your link is inaccessible.)

    Also encouraging - prior infection confers at least six months protection in a study of 11k healthcare workers.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    Setting aside the arguments about potential vaccine resistance, the justification for the delayed second dose strategy is clear.

  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,722
    MattW said:
    cant help thinking this is bad politics from the Dems. surely those who think Trump should be prosecuted are already voting Dem in the runoffs, but some who think he shouldn't will be put off voting D or might be motivated to vote R rather than abstain?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494
    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    Possibly.

    If Labour want to show any sign of life whatsoever in Scotland it’s one they would need to at least lose narrowly. But if (if!) the Tories played it smartly in terms of tactical votes it might be done.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494
    MattW said:
    And he couldn’t pardon himself for it, of course...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494
    kamski said:

    MattW said:
    cant help thinking this is bad politics from the Dems. surely those who think Trump should be prosecuted are already voting Dem in the runoffs, but some who think he shouldn't will be put off voting D or might be motivated to vote R rather than abstain?
    Isn’t it the Republicans that are going after him?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    The J&J single shot vaccine trial is fully enrolled, but I don’t think they have the results yet.
    IF they are positive, then end February or early March is when the vaccine might be available.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9100395/US-using-one-shot-COVID-vaccine-February.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    kamski said:

    MattW said:
    cant help thinking this is bad politics from the Dems. surely those who think Trump should be prosecuted are already voting Dem in the runoffs, but some who think he shouldn't will be put off voting D or might be motivated to vote R rather than abstain?
    I think that quite a stretch, and seriously doubt it will change any votes at this point.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,722
    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    MattW said:
    cant help thinking this is bad politics from the Dems. surely those who think Trump should be prosecuted are already voting Dem in the runoffs, but some who think he shouldn't will be put off voting D or might be motivated to vote R rather than abstain?
    Isn’t it the Republicans that are going after him?
    Democrat Atlanta prosecutor I think
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    MattW said:
    cant help thinking this is bad politics from the Dems. surely those who think Trump should be prosecuted are already voting Dem in the runoffs, but some who think he shouldn't will be put off voting D or might be motivated to vote R rather than abstain?
    Isn’t it the Republicans that are going after him?
    I don’t think so -
    https://fultoncountyga.gov/news/2021/01/04/you-can-call-her-madam-da-fani-willis-on-making-history
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903
    The total vindication of what many of us said last year about contact tracing apps, governments and databases:

    https://yro.slashdot.org/story/21/01/04/2156236/singapore-police-can-access-covid-19-contact-tracing-data-for-criminal-investigations
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,369
    Quantas flight delays seem rather worse than usual:

    Qantas have confirmed that it has pushed back the dates of international flights that were on sale for departures in March.

    A spokesperson said the flights had already been on sale, despite some reports suggesting this was a new development. What has changed is that the airline has shifted the departure dates from March to July, in line with its forecasts about when international travel could again be possible.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312

    Two more good polls for the Dems in Georgia just out:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/

    I'm feeling a lot more confident than I was a week ago. Back in the autumn I think I might have been the lonely pb.com voice crying in the wilderness when I tipped people bet on Jon Ossoff at 3/1 (boosted) on Betfair Sportsbook. He nearly didn't take it to the run-off but I'm beginning to feel more optimistic that he may pull this off.

    I'm also on Ossoff at 250/1 for 2024 Presidential. A bet that goes into the silly category but stranger things have happened. He's young, ambitious and a very effective debater.

    I think this election is far more likely as a potential 2024 springboard, and even if she wins, I’d want long odds.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/04/brian-kemp-stacey-abrams-rematch-454395
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494
    kamski said:

    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    MattW said:
    cant help thinking this is bad politics from the Dems. surely those who think Trump should be prosecuted are already voting Dem in the runoffs, but some who think he shouldn't will be put off voting D or might be motivated to vote R rather than abstain?
    Isn’t it the Republicans that are going after him?
    Democrat Atlanta prosecutor I think
    Fair enough. I hope the Secretary of State weighs in though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 20,920
    edited January 5
    Nigelb said:

    Setting aside the arguments about potential vaccine resistance, the justification for the delayed second dose strategy is clear.

    That is modelling based on assumptions, not on actual patients.

    The paper compares 2 strategies, 1) reserving 50% of supply for second doses 3 weeks later. 2) giving all the first doses and relying on the supply chain to provide second doses in a timely fashion, looking at the risks if resupply didn't happen.

    In both regimes to quote from the paper "all second doses were administered on schedule (within 3 weeks of first dose) in both strategies.". It is not a comparison with a 12 week deliberate gap.

    This is visible in the bar chart where the vast majority in the blue bars (strategy2) were getting their second dose, for example)

    In effect strategy 2) was what we were doing in the UK until last Tuesday.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494
    Dear Mr Hancock

    If there is no evidence schools are riskier than elsewhere, would you please explain these figures?

    https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-teacher-covid-rates-333-above-average
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,369
    The i newspaper goes for grim laughs with “Lockdown 3: the worst sequel yet”.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494
    Scott_xP said:
    To misquote the Bible, once you know the truth, the truth shall cost Trump his freedom.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494
    IanB2 said:

    The i newspaper goes for grim laughs with “Lockdown 3: the worst sequel yet”.

    Wait until ‘Lockdown 4: Lock Down or Die Free.’
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,369
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    The i newspaper goes for grim laughs with “Lockdown 3: the worst sequel yet”.

    Wait until ‘Lockdown 4: Lock Down or Die Free.’
    Which I fear does sound like another Xmas movie....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903
    Vaccine wars about to kick off in Europe:

    Merkel insisted on using EU procurement scheme, going over the heads of her own health minister and those of other EU nations.

    Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands were close to a joint deal for 400m doses of AZ vaccine, which was abandoned in favour of the common vaccine policy at the Chancellor’s insistence.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/04/angela-merkel-blocked-bid-secure-coronavirus-vaccine/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732
    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,924
    Sandpit said:

    The total vindication of what many of us said last year about contact tracing apps, governments and databases:

    https://yro.slashdot.org/story/21/01/04/2156236/singapore-police-can-access-covid-19-contact-tracing-data-for-criminal-investigations

    It's Singapore, what do you expect?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,369
    Andrew Marr should be put out to grass doing scripted light documentaries; it really is irresponsible of the BBC to keep him on as a charity case in the prime political interviewer spot.

    Andrew Neil would have nailed that the PM was, in the same interview, insisting that primary schools re-open and flagging another lockdown, and as soon as the clown came out with that last statement, would have zeroed in on the pointlessness - and dangers - of forcing primary school kids to school for just a few days before going into lockdown.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,043
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    By-election watch ... I suspect there is also a strong chance of a Welsh by-election or two as well.

    The culling of the Welsh seats in the impending boundary review is particularly stark, and some Labour MPs will be facing no future.

    It affects Labour especially as they (in the South) often have contiguous seats. E.g, there will be only 3 seats after the boundary review made up from present-day Swansea E, Swansea W, Gower and Llanelli. One Labour MP will lose out.

    An attractive option for such MPs is to jump to the Assembly in 2021.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    Good point. I think I said at the time, that surely this would meet the standard for reckless endangerment, knowingly travelling on public transport with a communicable disease, irrespective of the covid-specific legislation?

    In England, people were convicted of GBH for infecting others with HIV, and received severe custodial sentences.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 20,920
    IanB2 said:

    Andrew Marr should be put out to grass doing scripted light documentaries; it really is irresponsible of the BBC to keep him on as a charity case in the prime political interviewer spot.

    Andrew Neil would have nailed that the PM was, in the same interview, insisting that primary schools re-open and flagging another lockdown, and as soon as the clown came out with that last statement, would have zeroed in on the pointlessness - and dangers - of forcing primary school kids to school for just a few days before going into lockdown.

    I am not convinced that forcing government ministers to make on the hoof policy announcements would be progress.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew Marr should be put out to grass doing scripted light documentaries; it really is irresponsible of the BBC to keep him on as a charity case in the prime political interviewer spot.

    Andrew Neil would have nailed that the PM was, in the same interview, insisting that primary schools re-open and flagging another lockdown, and as soon as the clown came out with that last statement, would have zeroed in on the pointlessness - and dangers - of forcing primary school kids to school for just a few days before going into lockdown.

    I am not convinced that forcing government ministers to make on the hoof policy announcements would be progress.
    Well, no, it would be the status quo.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903

    Sandpit said:

    The total vindication of what many of us said last year about contact tracing apps, governments and databases:

    https://yro.slashdot.org/story/21/01/04/2156236/singapore-police-can-access-covid-19-contact-tracing-data-for-criminal-investigations

    It's Singapore, what do you expect?
    Indeed. I was more than a little concerned about this yesterday, waiting for Mrs Sandpit to get her test result, that while I didn’t want the virus, I really didn’t want apps on my phone that I’d need if I had to go and get tested myself - to the point that I’d have bought another phone!

    Stories like this do indicate why take up of contact tracing apps was so low in the West, no matter what governments, Apple and Google had to say about them.

    The reason that NHS England and others didn’t go with the Apple/Google solution in the first place, was precisely because they wanted a list of names and places, not a random string of contact reference numbers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 20,920


    I think the issue may well be bandwidth in the hospital oxygen pipes rather than absolute shortages. I know of UK hospitals that have had that as a problem.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,369
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew Marr should be put out to grass doing scripted light documentaries; it really is irresponsible of the BBC to keep him on as a charity case in the prime political interviewer spot.

    Andrew Neil would have nailed that the PM was, in the same interview, insisting that primary schools re-open and flagging another lockdown, and as soon as the clown came out with that last statement, would have zeroed in on the pointlessness - and dangers - of forcing primary school kids to school for just a few days before going into lockdown.

    I am not convinced that forcing government ministers to make on the hoof policy announcements would be progress.
    Recognising the inevitability of schools being closed, before the point at which they were forced to open, would most definitely have been progress. There never was any doubt about the destination; it was simply a matter of how and when the government would get there.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    By-election watch ... I suspect there is also a strong chance of a Welsh by-election or two as well.

    The culling of the Welsh seats in the impending boundary review is particularly stark, and some Labour MPs will be facing no future.

    It affects Labour especially as they (in the South) often have contiguous seats. E.g, there will be only 3 seats after the boundary review made up from present-day Swansea E, Swansea W, Gower and Llanelli. One Labour MP will lose out.

    An attractive option for such MPs is to jump to the Assembly in 2021.
    Really? Surely they get paid far more at Westminster and there is always a chance that 1 or more of your competitors will decide to retire by 2024 which is a long way away. I could see the temptation in Scotland where there is, for the SNP at least, a real chance of a government post or even of being the next FM but I am not sure the temptations are quite the same in Cardiff.

    I also think that your chances for selection will be more than somewhat reduced if you are going to cause your party an unnecessary bye election. That proved a significant blockage in the SNP.

    Worth keeping an eye on though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    By-election watch ... I suspect there is also a strong chance of a Welsh by-election or two as well.

    The culling of the Welsh seats in the impending boundary review is particularly stark, and some Labour MPs will be facing no future.

    It affects Labour especially as they (in the South) often have contiguous seats. E.g, there will be only 3 seats after the boundary review made up from present-day Swansea E, Swansea W, Gower and Llanelli. One Labour MP will lose out.

    An attractive option for such MPs is to jump to the Assembly in 2021.
    Although in that particular example, Nia Griffith, Carolyn Harris and Geraint Davies are all over 60 - indeed, Nia Griffith will be nearly 70 in 2024. So they may just elect to retire. Which would probably leave Tonia Antoniazzi with her pick of two very safe seats among those three.

    The Valleys though could be a bloodbath.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew Marr should be put out to grass doing scripted light documentaries; it really is irresponsible of the BBC to keep him on as a charity case in the prime political interviewer spot.

    Andrew Neil would have nailed that the PM was, in the same interview, insisting that primary schools re-open and flagging another lockdown, and as soon as the clown came out with that last statement, would have zeroed in on the pointlessness - and dangers - of forcing primary school kids to school for just a few days before going into lockdown.

    I am not convinced that forcing government ministers to make on the hoof policy announcements would be progress.
    Recognising the inevitability of schools being closed, before the point at which they were forced to open, would most definitely have been progress. There never was any doubt about the destination; it was simply a matter of how and when the government would get there.
    I was in doubt about the destination. Simply because I never thought the government would make it that far.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    Good point. I think I said at the time, that surely this would meet the standard for reckless endangerment, knowingly travelling on public transport with a communicable disease, irrespective of the covid-specific legislation?

    In England, people were convicted of GBH for infecting others with HIV, and received severe custodial sentences.
    The tough bit for the Crown here is that I seriously doubt that they have evidence of actual infection caused. That would have required a working test and trace app about which you have written this morning. Without that it is still reckless conduct (in my view) but I am not sure how a jury would consider it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 20,920
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew Marr should be put out to grass doing scripted light documentaries; it really is irresponsible of the BBC to keep him on as a charity case in the prime political interviewer spot.

    Andrew Neil would have nailed that the PM was, in the same interview, insisting that primary schools re-open and flagging another lockdown, and as soon as the clown came out with that last statement, would have zeroed in on the pointlessness - and dangers - of forcing primary school kids to school for just a few days before going into lockdown.

    I am not convinced that forcing government ministers to make on the hoof policy announcements would be progress.
    Recognising the inevitability of schools being closed, before the point at which they were forced to open, would most definitely have been progress. There never was any doubt about the destination; it was simply a matter of how and when the government would get there.
    Indeed, in no way was I trying to suggest that at present government policy was coherent and well grounded. Just suggesting that might be a good thing were it to occur.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    Good point. I think I said at the time, that surely this would meet the standard for reckless endangerment, knowingly travelling on public transport with a communicable disease, irrespective of the covid-specific legislation?

    In England, people were convicted of GBH for infecting others with HIV, and received severe custodial sentences.
    The tough bit for the Crown here is that I seriously doubt that they have evidence of actual infection caused. That would have required a working test and trace app about which you have written this morning. Without that it is still reckless conduct (in my view) but I am not sure how a jury would consider it.
    Is it possible another passenger or a staff member has come forward to say that shortly after travelling on that train they developed Covid symptoms? Might that explain why they've used this statute rather than the Covid regs?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,043
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    By-election watch ... I suspect there is also a strong chance of a Welsh by-election or two as well.

    The culling of the Welsh seats in the impending boundary review is particularly stark, and some Labour MPs will be facing no future.

    It affects Labour especially as they (in the South) often have contiguous seats. E.g, there will be only 3 seats after the boundary review made up from present-day Swansea E, Swansea W, Gower and Llanelli. One Labour MP will lose out.

    An attractive option for such MPs is to jump to the Assembly in 2021.
    Although in that particular example, Nia Griffith, Carolyn Harris and Geraint Davies are all over 60 - indeed, Nia Griffith will be nearly 70 in 2024. So they may just elect to retire. Which would probably leave Tonia Antoniazzi with her pick of two very safe seats among those three.

    The Valleys though could be a bloodbath.
    Do we know who Labour have chosen to fight the Bridgend seat in the Senedd (Carwyn is definitely going) ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    By-election watch ... I suspect there is also a strong chance of a Welsh by-election or two as well.

    The culling of the Welsh seats in the impending boundary review is particularly stark, and some Labour MPs will be facing no future.

    It affects Labour especially as they (in the South) often have contiguous seats. E.g, there will be only 3 seats after the boundary review made up from present-day Swansea E, Swansea W, Gower and Llanelli. One Labour MP will lose out.

    An attractive option for such MPs is to jump to the Assembly in 2021.
    Although in that particular example, Nia Griffith, Carolyn Harris and Geraint Davies are all over 60 - indeed, Nia Griffith will be nearly 70 in 2024. So they may just elect to retire. Which would probably leave Tonia Antoniazzi with her pick of two very safe seats among those three.

    The Valleys though could be a bloodbath.
    Do we know who Labour have chosen to fight the Bridgend seat in the Senedd (Carwyn is definitely going) ?
    https://twitter.com/sarah4bridgend?lang=en
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 63,352
    rcs1000 said:

    Some good news:

    Johnson & Johnson has announced that it plans to apply for FDA authorisation for its CV19 vaccine in February.

    This strongly suggests that we will have positive trial results soon from J&J, and it's important to remember that this vaccine is single dose *and* does not require low temperature storage or transportation.

    Let's hope it comes through. The idea of a one shot vaccine is very appealing, not even our Gov't can screw that up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Some good news:

    Johnson & Johnson has announced that it plans to apply for FDA authorisation for its CV19 vaccine in February.

    This strongly suggests that we will have positive trial results soon from J&J, and it's important to remember that this vaccine is single dose *and* does not require low temperature storage or transportation.

    Let's hope it comes through. The idea of a one shot vaccine is very appealing, not even our Gov't can screw that up.
    The triumph of hope over experience.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    Good point. I think I said at the time, that surely this would meet the standard for reckless endangerment, knowingly travelling on public transport with a communicable disease, irrespective of the covid-specific legislation?

    In England, people were convicted of GBH for infecting others with HIV, and received severe custodial sentences.
    The tough bit for the Crown here is that I seriously doubt that they have evidence of actual infection caused. That would have required a working test and trace app about which you have written this morning. Without that it is still reckless conduct (in my view) but I am not sure how a jury would consider it.
    Is it possible another passenger or a staff member has come forward to say that shortly after travelling on that train they developed Covid symptoms? Might that explain why they've used this statute rather than the Covid regs?
    It's possible but this isn't a statute at all, it's a common law crime. In theory the seriousness of the consequence is separate from the criminality of the conduct but in reality they inevitably blend into one another.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775
    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.
  • It appears that students are banned from returning to university in England (not sure about the other nations). I assume that tuition fees will continue at the same rate despite the downgrading of the product. What about accommodation?

    I had a suspicion the reason students were dispatched off to imprisonment in university accommodation was to lift from them which the government would otherwise had to cover. This term they cannot return but will already be at least contracted for if not paid up for their accommodation. Will these be waived/refunded and the government covering the gap? Waived/refunded and not covering the gap? Or nothing at all?

    As with hospitality and entertainment there is a real risk that the sector won't be there to be picked back up when all this is over. Universities are already low on cash, and private sector landlords need rental income or the properties get sold.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Setting aside the arguments about potential vaccine resistance, the justification for the delayed second dose strategy is clear.

    That is modelling based on assumptions, not on actual patients.

    The paper compares 2 strategies, 1) reserving 50% of supply for second doses 3 weeks later. 2) giving all the first doses and relying on the supply chain to provide second doses in a timely fashion, looking at the risks if resupply didn't happen.

    In both regimes to quote from the paper "all second doses were administered on schedule (within 3 weeks of first dose) in both strategies.". It is not a comparison with a 12 week deliberate gap.

    This is visible in the bar chart where the vast majority in the blue bars (strategy2) were getting their second dose, for example)

    In effect strategy 2) was what we were doing in the UK until last Tuesday.
    Fair comment.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,536

    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 36,845
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    Good point. I think I said at the time, that surely this would meet the standard for reckless endangerment, knowingly travelling on public transport with a communicable disease, irrespective of the covid-specific legislation?

    In England, people were convicted of GBH for infecting others with HIV, and received severe custodial sentences.
    The tough bit for the Crown here is that I seriously doubt that they have evidence of actual infection caused. That would have required a working test and trace app about which you have written this morning. Without that it is still reckless conduct (in my view) but I am not sure how a jury would consider it.
    She better hope that testing hasn't shown she was traced to being the first case of the "Cockney Covid" mutation....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732

    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    I still think that there are much more likely to be problems and delays on the supply side than the delivery side. When we have more than 1m people working for the NHS delivering 2m vaccines a week really shouldn't be that hard. In 19/20 we managed to provide 15.3m flu vaccines in a similar sort of time to that indicated by Boris yesterday for a similar sort of number. I suspect that this year we did even more but I am struggling to find the numbers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775

    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
    Great. But is there a plan? Can I download a document that describes in detail the places that will do this and when they will do it and so on.

    I would expect there is, but with the way this lot have handled this crisis to date I expect it is actually the back of some minister's cigarette packet.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 34,494

    It appears that students are banned from returning to university in England (not sure about the other nations). I assume that tuition fees will continue at the same rate despite the downgrading of the product. What about accommodation?

    I had a suspicion the reason students were dispatched off to imprisonment in university accommodation was to lift from them which the government would otherwise had to cover. This term they cannot return but will already be at least contracted for if not paid up for their accommodation. Will these be waived/refunded and the government covering the gap? Waived/refunded and not covering the gap? Or nothing at all?

    As with hospitality and entertainment there is a real risk that the sector won't be there to be picked back up when all this is over. Universities are already low on cash, and private sector landlords need rental income or the properties get sold.

    Your suspicion was correct. Which is why it would have made much more sense to pay universities to sit tight for six months and start the new year in January. Or as it now turns out, March.

    What will probably happen - and it has been happening at least to some extent already - is that a lot of universities will merge. That might be a good thing, or not, depending on how it is done. If it is done by closing surplus campuses and shedding some of the rather extensive administrative staff that many have accumulated, it might be quite beneficial. For example, there is little sense in a city the size of Swansea having two smallish universities, or for Gloucestershire to have two agricultural colleges. If however, as these things usually go, the administrators survive and the academic departments are culled instead, we're going to have a pretty broken system of mediocre unis underpinned by vast subsidies going forward.

    Anyway, if you will excuse me, I have a series of crisis meetings to attend. Have a good morning.
  • Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
    We know that its *possible* to mass vaccinate at speed. We just fear that it isn't *probable* with this government's track record on every other aspect of the pandemic.

    Anyone heard from Dido Harding recently? She gets paid £lots as the well qualified head of Test Track and Trace which costs £lotsandlots to apparently do absolutely nothing.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 5,155
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    "Culpable and reckless conduct can be prosecuted in any level in
    Scottish courts from Justice of the Peace Courts (maximum sentence
    60 days imprisonment), the Sheriff Court either summary (maximum
    sentence 1 year imprisonment) or on indictment (maximum sentence 5
    years imprisonment), and in the High Court of Justiciary (maximum
    sentence life imprisonment)"

    it says here. Specific covid offences, are fines only. This is a sodding great message to the public at large.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,965
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    Good point. I think I said at the time, that surely this would meet the standard for reckless endangerment, knowingly travelling on public transport with a communicable disease, irrespective of the covid-specific legislation?

    In England, people were convicted of GBH for infecting others with HIV, and received severe custodial sentences.
    The tough bit for the Crown here is that I seriously doubt that they have evidence of actual infection caused. That would have required a working test and trace app about which you have written this morning. Without that it is still reckless conduct (in my view) but I am not sure how a jury would consider it.
    Is it possible another passenger or a staff member has come forward to say that shortly after travelling on that train they developed Covid symptoms? Might that explain why they've used this statute rather than the Covid regs?
    It's possible but this isn't a statute at all, it's a common law crime. In theory the seriousness of the consequence is separate from the criminality of the conduct but in reality they inevitably blend into one another.
    Is it easier to get convictions under broadly-defined Scottish common law offences such as Culpable and Reckless than would be the case in England, where I think they rely more on statute law?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903

    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
    1100 people a day, from one centre in each Parliamentary constituency, would be 5m per week in the country. The capacity is there, the issue is the supply of the vaccines themselves.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,965
    Lockdown as hard as possible; vaccinate as quickly as possible.

    That's the policy for the next months. We can do no other.
  • Something Boris would have experience of, how nice of his former colleagues to point that out...
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,536

    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
    We know that its *possible* to mass vaccinate at speed. We just fear that it isn't *probable* with this government's track record on every other aspect of the pandemic.

    Anyone heard from Dido Harding recently? She gets paid £lots as the well qualified head of Test Track and Trace which costs £lotsandlots to apparently do absolutely nothing.
    What would this site be like if we were following the French Government's vaccine rollout efforts.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    "Culpable and reckless conduct can be prosecuted in any level in
    Scottish courts from Justice of the Peace Courts (maximum sentence
    60 days imprisonment), the Sheriff Court either summary (maximum
    sentence 1 year imprisonment) or on indictment (maximum sentence 5
    years imprisonment), and in the High Court of Justiciary (maximum
    sentence life imprisonment)"

    it says here. Specific covid offences, are fines only. This is a sodding great message to the public at large.
    Yes, it is at least potentially a much more serious offence. In the case I was involved in the man got 8 years (IIRC, it was a long time ago) which, given his condition, was effectively a life sentence (HIV treatment was a lot less effective in those days).

    My guess, unless they have pretty good evidence of infection of other rail passengers (and proving that they got it from her would be tricky without detailed DNA analysis of the particular variant) is that this would go before the Sheriff at summary level but indictment (which involves a sheriff and jury) is possible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775
    The government has given its word that there is a clear way out of this hell. They must be seen - clearly and accountably - to be taking us there.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/04/pm-has-staked-credibility-february-vaccine-pledge-better-not/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,903

    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
    Great. But is there a plan? Can I download a document that describes in detail the places that will do this and when they will do it and so on.

    I would expect there is, but with the way this lot have handled this crisis to date I expect it is actually the back of some minister's cigarette packet.
    Why would they bother to publish such a “plan”, which serves no useful purspose except as a stick with which to beat the government later?

    If there’s evidence of vaccines sitting idle or discarded then great, let’s hear them, but otherwise it’s just saying we don’t like this government, rather than for any specific reason.
  • Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
    We know that its *possible* to mass vaccinate at speed. We just fear that it isn't *probable* with this government's track record on every other aspect of the pandemic.

    Anyone heard from Dido Harding recently? She gets paid £lots as the well qualified head of Test Track and Trace which costs £lotsandlots to apparently do absolutely nothing.
    What would this site be like if we were following the French Government's vaccine rollout efforts.
    They are starting later than we did. Are you claiming that the early medical sign off on the vaccines in the UK was as a result of political will from number 10?

    Again, what the French may or may not be doing does not negate the utter chaos and disastrous bungling of the government at almost every step it has had direct involvement in.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    ydoethur said:

    Dear Mr Hancock

    If there is no evidence schools are riskier than elsewhere, would you please explain these figures?

    https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-teacher-covid-rates-333-above-average

    Well, there was no evidence, as government wasn't collecting it ?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 6,005



    Anyone heard from Dido Harding recently? She gets paid £lots as the well qualified head of Test Track and Trace which costs £lotsandlots to apparently do absolutely nothing.

    Just been gigging around the Blackpool area.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    Good point. I think I said at the time, that surely this would meet the standard for reckless endangerment, knowingly travelling on public transport with a communicable disease, irrespective of the covid-specific legislation?

    In England, people were convicted of GBH for infecting others with HIV, and received severe custodial sentences.
    The tough bit for the Crown here is that I seriously doubt that they have evidence of actual infection caused. That would have required a working test and trace app about which you have written this morning. Without that it is still reckless conduct (in my view) but I am not sure how a jury would consider it.
    Is it possible another passenger or a staff member has come forward to say that shortly after travelling on that train they developed Covid symptoms? Might that explain why they've used this statute rather than the Covid regs?
    It's possible but this isn't a statute at all, it's a common law crime. In theory the seriousness of the consequence is separate from the criminality of the conduct but in reality they inevitably blend into one another.
    Is it easier to get convictions under broadly-defined Scottish common law offences such as Culpable and Reckless than would be the case in England, where I think they rely more on statute law?
    I would say yes. It allows a broader consideration of the conduct complained of rather than the wording of a particular statute. This can work for the defence (here, no doubt, the "defence" will be that I just had to get home so I could self isolate, what else was I supposed to do) but it normally makes life a little easier for the Crown.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,312
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Some good news:

    Johnson & Johnson has announced that it plans to apply for FDA authorisation for its CV19 vaccine in February.

    This strongly suggests that we will have positive trial results soon from J&J, and it's important to remember that this vaccine is single dose *and* does not require low temperature storage or transportation.

    Let's hope it comes through. The idea of a one shot vaccine is very appealing, not even our Gov't can screw that up.
    It's not going to be available in the US until the very end of February / beginning of March, even if the trial results are everything we hope for.
    I'm not sure at what point we'd then get supplies ?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 783

    It appears that students are banned from returning to university in England (not sure about the other nations). I assume that tuition fees will continue at the same rate despite the downgrading of the product. What about accommodation?

    I had a suspicion the reason students were dispatched off to imprisonment in university accommodation was to lift from them which the government would otherwise had to cover. This term they cannot return but will already be at least contracted for if not paid up for their accommodation. Will these be waived/refunded and the government covering the gap? Waived/refunded and not covering the gap? Or nothing at all?

    As with hospitality and entertainment there is a real risk that the sector won't be there to be picked back up when all this is over. Universities are already low on cash, and private sector landlords need rental income or the properties get sold.

    The university I work at refunded student accommodation provided by the university during the first lockdown. I assume those renting privately did not get any refunds.

    The university estates actually did ok in the first lockdown, vast majority of staff furloughed and the drop in utilities and staff costs offset the refunds to students. Our CFO gave a presentation on this and emphasised that student accommodation is only run on a cost basis anyway, so taking away the vast majority of the costs means you don't have a black hole from refunding the cost-covering accommodation fees.
  • ydoethur said:

    It appears that students are banned from returning to university in England (not sure about the other nations). I assume that tuition fees will continue at the same rate despite the downgrading of the product. What about accommodation?

    I had a suspicion the reason students were dispatched off to imprisonment in university accommodation was to lift from them which the government would otherwise had to cover. This term they cannot return but will already be at least contracted for if not paid up for their accommodation. Will these be waived/refunded and the government covering the gap? Waived/refunded and not covering the gap? Or nothing at all?

    As with hospitality and entertainment there is a real risk that the sector won't be there to be picked back up when all this is over. Universities are already low on cash, and private sector landlords need rental income or the properties get sold.

    Your suspicion was correct. Which is why it would have made much more sense to pay universities to sit tight for six months and start the new year in January. Or as it now turns out, March.

    What will probably happen - and it has been happening at least to some extent already - is that a lot of universities will merge. That might be a good thing, or not, depending on how it is done. If it is done by closing surplus campuses and shedding some of the rather extensive administrative staff that many have accumulated, it might be quite beneficial. For example, there is little sense in a city the size of Swansea having two smallish universities, or for Gloucestershire to have two agricultural colleges. If however, as these things usually go, the administrators survive and the academic departments are culled instead, we're going to have a pretty broken system of mediocre unis underpinned by vast subsidies going forward.

    Anyway, if you will excuse me, I have a series of crisis meetings to attend. Have a good morning.
    "But where would we have got the money from?" I can hear the PB parrots squawk. What, like the gazillions burned on a test and trace programme that doesn't work or hundreds of millions handed out to their friends for non-existent PPE?

    Money can always be found to line the pockets of Tory friends and donors. Money can never be found to feed hungry children or save hospitality and entertainment or keep the self-employed afloat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909

    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
    We know that its *possible* to mass vaccinate at speed. We just fear that it isn't *probable* with this government's track record on every other aspect of the pandemic.

    Anyone heard from Dido Harding recently? She gets paid £lots as the well qualified head of Test Track and Trace which costs £lotsandlots to apparently do absolutely nothing.
    What would this site be like if we were following the French Government's vaccine rollout efforts.
    They are starting later than we did. Are you claiming that the early medical sign off on the vaccines in the UK was as a result of political will from number 10?

    Again, what the French may or may not be doing does not negate the utter chaos and disastrous bungling of the government at almost every step it has had direct involvement in.
    When they started has nothing to do with it. It's the speed now that they've actually started.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,111
    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    Easy SNP win incoming if it is
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,536

    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
    We know that its *possible* to mass vaccinate at speed. We just fear that it isn't *probable* with this government's track record on every other aspect of the pandemic.

    Anyone heard from Dido Harding recently? She gets paid £lots as the well qualified head of Test Track and Trace which costs £lotsandlots to apparently do absolutely nothing.
    What would this site be like if we were following the French Government's vaccine rollout efforts.
    They are starting later than we did. Are you claiming that the early medical sign off on the vaccines in the UK was as a result of political will from number 10?

    Again, what the French may or may not be doing does not negate the utter chaos and disastrous bungling of the government at almost every step it has had direct involvement in.
    I am not claiming anything other than we are vaccinating faster than any other EU Country ( we also test more than any other EU country) In fact this one medical centre did more vaccinations yesterday than were carried out in the whole of France.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775
    Sandpit said:

    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
    Great. But is there a plan? Can I download a document that describes in detail the places that will do this and when they will do it and so on.

    I would expect there is, but with the way this lot have handled this crisis to date I expect it is actually the back of some minister's cigarette packet.
    Why would they bother to publish such a “plan”, which serves no useful purspose except as a stick with which to beat the government later?

    If there’s evidence of vaccines sitting idle or discarded then great, let’s hear them, but otherwise it’s just saying we don’t like this government, rather than for any specific reason.
    Because as Janet Daley says in Telegraph with clear accountability and daily updates we can see where the bureaucratic blocks are that can be swept away with some outside pressure.

    As an example, would anything have been done about the reams of often utterly pointless forms that returning retired GPs had to to fill in just to give a jab, if the media had not got hold of the story?

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,005
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    Good point. I think I said at the time, that surely this would meet the standard for reckless endangerment, knowingly travelling on public transport with a communicable disease, irrespective of the covid-specific legislation?

    In England, people were convicted of GBH for infecting others with HIV, and received severe custodial sentences.
    The tough bit for the Crown here is that I seriously doubt that they have evidence of actual infection caused. That would have required a working test and trace app about which you have written this morning. Without that it is still reckless conduct (in my view) but I am not sure how a jury would consider it.
    Although this is a common law crime I can imagine a court thinking along the lines of possession of a bladed article, where the focus is often upon what could of happened, as opposed to what did.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,111

    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
    We know that its *possible* to mass vaccinate at speed. We just fear that it isn't *probable* with this government's track record on every other aspect of the pandemic.

    Anyone heard from Dido Harding recently? She gets paid £lots as the well qualified head of Test Track and Trace which costs £lotsandlots to apparently do absolutely nothing.
    What would this site be like if we were following the French Government's vaccine rollout efforts.
    How sick can you get gloating over fact more people may be dying!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,714

    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
    We know that its *possible* to mass vaccinate at speed. We just fear that it isn't *probable* with this government's track record on every other aspect of the pandemic.

    Anyone heard from Dido Harding recently? She gets paid £lots as the well qualified head of Test Track and Trace which costs £lotsandlots to apparently do absolutely nothing.
    What would this site be like if we were following the French Government's vaccine rollout efforts.
    They are starting later than we did. Are you claiming that the early medical sign off on the vaccines in the UK was as a result of political will from number 10?

    Again, what the French may or may not be doing does not negate the utter chaos and disastrous bungling of the government at almost every step it has had direct involvement in.
    What you've just done there is decide that if something goes well, then it's nothing to do with the government. If something goes bad...

    Personally, I don't get hung up on day to day competence of the government. I'm more interested in their strategic thinking. So on Test, Track and Trace, I think the biggest mistake was thinking that it could ever work. Unless we're going to behave like South Korea (I mean, us as people, you know, doing as we're f****** told), then it's a complete waste of time. Even the Germans have failed to make it work.

    The one big decision the government has got right was to ignore pressure to join in with any of the EU schemes. We are in a much better position doing our own thing. Whether the government meets their vaccine target for mid-February doesn't bother me all that much. But it is good that they've set a fairly ambitious target, and hopefully as with the testing arguments, whether the targets are met or not won't matter, so long as the trend is continually upward.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,924
    edited January 5
    Deleted. Duplicated Mr S's comment!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 36,845

    Never mind exams R4. Press Gove on the vaccine delivery. Where is the detailed plan? Demonstrate Johnson is not going to f*ck this up.

    If you look at this small print from this story in the Daily Express this morning, yesterday one Medical Centre vaccinated 1100 people. If you multiply that up it is clear that if the supply is available getting the population vaccinated will be much quicker than people imagine.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379561/coronavirus-vaccines-news-elderly-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown
    We know that its *possible* to mass vaccinate at speed. We just fear that it isn't *probable* with this government's track record on every other aspect of the pandemic.

    Anyone heard from Dido Harding recently? She gets paid £lots as the well qualified head of Test Track and Trace which costs £lotsandlots to apparently do absolutely nothing.
    What would this site be like if we were following the French Government's vaccine rollout efforts.
    Oh, but we are following them. Very carefully. They are the spar from the flagpole, keeping our flag of English exceptionalism flying so proudly....
  • eekeek Posts: 10,100

    It appears that students are banned from returning to university in England (not sure about the other nations). I assume that tuition fees will continue at the same rate despite the downgrading of the product. What about accommodation?

    I had a suspicion the reason students were dispatched off to imprisonment in university accommodation was to lift from them which the government would otherwise had to cover. This term they cannot return but will already be at least contracted for if not paid up for their accommodation. Will these be waived/refunded and the government covering the gap? Waived/refunded and not covering the gap? Or nothing at all?

    As with hospitality and entertainment there is a real risk that the sector won't be there to be picked back up when all this is over. Universities are already low on cash, and private sector landlords need rental income or the properties get sold.

    Eek Jr went back to Leeds on Sunday as Conservatoires are in the same hands-on criteria as veterinary and medical studies.

    And as she says it's better to be with friends doing her course than sat at home.

    The other Eek twin has already colonized her sisters room for "study" purposes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,732
    Selebian said:

    It appears that students are banned from returning to university in England (not sure about the other nations). I assume that tuition fees will continue at the same rate despite the downgrading of the product. What about accommodation?

    I had a suspicion the reason students were dispatched off to imprisonment in university accommodation was to lift from them which the government would otherwise had to cover. This term they cannot return but will already be at least contracted for if not paid up for their accommodation. Will these be waived/refunded and the government covering the gap? Waived/refunded and not covering the gap? Or nothing at all?

    As with hospitality and entertainment there is a real risk that the sector won't be there to be picked back up when all this is over. Universities are already low on cash, and private sector landlords need rental income or the properties get sold.

    The university I work at refunded student accommodation provided by the university during the first lockdown. I assume those renting privately did not get any refunds.

    The university estates actually did ok in the first lockdown, vast majority of staff furloughed and the drop in utilities and staff costs offset the refunds to students. Our CFO gave a presentation on this and emphasised that student accommodation is only run on a cost basis anyway, so taking away the vast majority of the costs means you don't have a black hole from refunding the cost-covering accommodation fees.
    There must be a very significant capital cost though in having the purpose built accommodation constructed. The economic consequences for most Universities will be severe. In the public sector furlough payments were also typically "topped up" so that employees received their full wages. I am very surprised that the financial consequences were not greater.

    My guess is that the University would have had the reserves for a one off hit but a repetition of this is going to hurt and I would expect the Treasury to be asked to help.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 31,111
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, did we miss this one yesterday. Margaret Ferrier MP charged with “culpable and reckless conduct” over her train trip from London to Glasgow after positive COVID test.

    https://order-order.com/2021/01/04/margaret-ferrier-mp-arrested/

    By-election incoming?

    It’s interesting that Crown Office decided not to proceed under the plethora of COVID legislation but instead with a common law offence. I was involved for the Crown in such a prosecution nearly 20 years ago now against someone who had unprotected sex with a woman knowing he was HIV+. He was convicted.

    A conviction here could easily meet the criteria for disqualification for being an MP.
    "Culpable and reckless conduct can be prosecuted in any level in
    Scottish courts from Justice of the Peace Courts (maximum sentence
    60 days imprisonment), the Sheriff Court either summary (maximum
    sentence 1 year imprisonment) or on indictment (maximum sentence 5
    years imprisonment), and in the High Court of Justiciary (maximum
    sentence life imprisonment)"

    it says here. Specific covid offences, are fines only. This is a sodding great message to the public at large.
    Something fishy about it all , timing as well. If anything more than a £60 fine we will know there are strings being pulled.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 783
    Morning all. Quick question that Google and government websites so far fail to answer. In this lockdown it is permissible to meet one other person outside household for exercise. Does anyone know whether children under school age count as people for this purpose? They did not in November, so my wife was able to walk with her mother and our baby (and sometimes our 3 year old) but, unlike in November, that's not explicitly allowed this time as far as I can see. Also no explicitly not allowed, which you would think would be done if not permissible given it would be a change from November.

    Also, what's going on with pre-school provision? They're open in England, which makes no sense for controlling spread, surely as high risk as primary schools if not higher. I guess the logic may be that parents can maybe do some work with a 5+ year old at home, but not with a pre-schooler, but it seems incoherent. Our 3 year old is not going today, but we're in a bit of a quandary - we think he benefits from playgroup and interacting with other kids a couple of times a week, the risk to him is low (as far as the evidence shows so far) and neither my wife nor I are in high risk groups - if he does go then we won't see anyone else even for one-to-one exercise as we then become a higher risk to others. On the other hand, we think playgroups should be closed to limit spread. What to do?
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