"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Big G, I fully understand your plight, but we are in the midst of a dangerous pandemic. Both my sons are/were in the final year of University degrees. The one in Wales has now suspended studies for a year, the one in England is soldiering on to the bitter end.
Neither have seen a lecturer since March. My eldest son who is on the autistic spectrum was in a Halls of Residence flat on his own for a fortnight whilst his overseas student flatmates were quarantining before arrival- not another soul for a fortnight. Perhaps we need to show a little of the wartime spirit that Boris Johnson enthuses over.
I am surprised that there the NUS are not pushing strongly for at least partial rebate of tuition fees for this year.
It seems reasonable to me.
The NUS are utterly spineless at issues that actually affect students. Most students only join because of the of the societies and the cheap bars.
I went to the NUS Conference in 2003.
The Conference spent more time debating the Iraq War (which had began a few weeks earlier and had nothing to do with students) than it did tuition fees. 🤦🏻♂️
All anyone at Conference seemed to want to discuss primarily was Palestine and Iraq.
Perhaps this is because politically minded young people are elevated and idealistic. They are animated more by global injustice than by the size of their wallet.
Virtue signalling is more important to them than the wellbeing of students.
Unless the wellbeing of students - in the view of students rather than yours or mine - is more affected by global injustice than by how much money they have.
"Critical Care Bed Capacity and Urgent Operations Cancelled Due to the coronavirus illness (COVID-19) and the need to release capacity across the NHS to support the response, we are pausing the collection and publication of these and some of our official statistics."
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
Jesus, That's it. That's the nightmare. The vaccines don't work.... they have to be remodelled....it takes a year.... we're all dead. Great.
mRNA rework wouldn't take a year. iirc one of the top Phifzer guys said it would be six weeks.
Obv the Pfizer guy knows a shit-ton more than me, but how can he be so precise? Have they scrutinized the Afrikaaner Bug in the lab?
I hope so and I hope he is talking with authority, but I have my amateurish doubts, and - IF this new strain is resistant - then I could see it taking a lot longer for the NEW vaccine to go from creation to manufacture to actual distribution around the world.
And during that time the virus may mutate again, of course. That is why it is so vital to squash it now, ASAFP
Yes. We only have even vaguely enough of what works now because we were mfring it on spec for 6 months solid.
We’d be starting from a very different point in terms of manufacturing capacity for the mRNA vaccines though. Much of which had to be built in the time you’re talking about.
Jesus, That's it. That's the nightmare. The vaccines don't work.... they have to be remodelled....it takes a year.... we're all dead. Great.
But to Grant Shapps a price worth paying to keep the airports open.
Just letting people come and go from the start has been fucking radged as my Irish mother used to say. All arrivals should be in quarantine for two weeks. That would have suppressed traveller numbers to a level that might have been manageable. At the moment it has the feeling of something that's on the verge of lurching out of control.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
Did you forget to put a weight in the nose?
The Airfix generation speaking.
Just so. When I were a lad and an inveterate model builder (I pretty much had a Tamiya Panzerarmee), Airfix were seen as poor man's kit building. Checking the eponymous magazine on Tesco's shelves, they're right at the forefront now; I hope Liz Truss is pushing trade deals for this vital sector!
I too favoured Tamiya. Much fun had with the motorised PanzerKamfwagen II. You always remember your first.
In evidence that boys never grow up, my brother sent me this for Christmas.
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
Did you forget to put a weight in the nose?
The Airfix generation speaking.
Just so. When I were a lad and an inveterate model builder (I pretty much had a Tamiya Panzerarmee), Airfix were seen as poor man's kit building. Checking the eponymous magazine on Tesco's shelves, they're right at the forefront now; I hope Liz Truss is pushing trade deals for this vital sector!
I too favoured Tamiya. Much fun had with the motorised PanzerKamfwagen II. You always remember your first.
In evidence that boys never grow up, my brother sent me this for Christmas.
Sudden memory jog, Christmas 1971 and my present - that Panzer II.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
Makes sense. The only real downside is that there will likely be a very significant drop off in antibody levels during the extended gap before the booster. But the cost benefit analysis is definitely in favour of getting as many jabbed as possible when infection levels are so high.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Big G, I fully understand your plight, but we are in the midst of a dangerous pandemic. Both my sons are/were in the final year of University degrees. The one in Wales has now suspended studies for a year, the one in England is soldiering on to the bitter end.
Neither have seen a lecturer since March. My eldest son who is on the autistic spectrum was in a Halls of Residence flat on his own for a fortnight whilst his overseas student flatmates were quarantining before arrival- not another soul for a fortnight. Perhaps we need to show a little of the wartime spirit that Boris Johnson enthuses over.
I am surprised that there the NUS are not pushing strongly for at least partial rebate of tuition fees for this year.
It seems reasonable to me.
The NUS are utterly spineless at issues that actually affect students. Most students only join because of the of the societies and the cheap bars.
I went to the NUS Conference in 2003.
The Conference spent more time debating the Iraq War (which had began a few weeks earlier and had nothing to do with students) than it did tuition fees. 🤦🏻♂️
All anyone at Conference seemed to want to discuss primarily was Palestine and Iraq.
Perhaps this is because politically minded young people are elevated and idealistic. They are animated more by global injustice than by the size of their wallet.
Virtue signalling is more important to them than the wellbeing of students.
Unless the wellbeing of students - in the view of students rather than yours or mine - is more affected by global injustice than by how much money they have.
Injustice tends to present as shortage of money, so there is a false dichotomy thing going on here. UK university students are not all Bullingdon club members; they are, especially now, in many cases in severe financial and non-financial distress and the primary job of those elected to represent them, is to represent them. If I employ a builder or a surgeon, say, I am always delighted to learn that they give up a lot of their spare time working for animal welfare and world peace, but that isn't really the point.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
But what about Joan 'no mansion tax for me' Bakewell ?
I rang a friend who had also had her first vaccine, and we began to plan for a dinner together at the end of January. I let my mind conjure visions of a restaurant table, a tempting menu, a glass of wine. Might our old ways of life be within reach?
But now, like many of the million people who have already had their first dose of Pfizer’s vaccine, I am in limbo. I’ve heard nothing from my GP or my clinic, and have no idea whether my life will go back to normal at the end of this month, or not until the end of March.
An interesting Twitter thread on Scottish independence which looks at the issue from the wrong angle. It isn't reasons why departure is so problematic that is concerning people, its reasons why staying is so problematic.
We've just had Brexit. Leaving the EU, EEA and CU very clearly sets this country back yet it is supported because staying in was perceived as worse. The same is true in Scotland where the UK is increasingly the "other" that is repressing their ability to forge their own path.
Saying "leaving won't be easy" is to rerun the failed brexit remain campaign. Positive reasons to stay need to be argued - not just hot air ones but practicalities as to how Scotland can be made better inside a refreshed union. Not "rebellious Scots to crush" as advocated by the Baronet of Epping Forest.
I agree and the positive reasons for remaining in the union will become apparent when indyref2 happens
Don't forget that the positive reasons are actual things the Union will bring to Scotland, not "this is better than if you leave which will be really shit".
I really struggle for what those positives are right now. The UK is a disfunctional mess. If we were likely to have a constitutional convention where cross-party consensus emerges to remake the UK and the various mad crown dependencies into a modern functioning country then maybe that could work. Give Scotland the same kind of self-governance as the Isle of Man (yes I know it isn't in the UK but it is owned by Brenda and unberella'd extensively by the UK) and perhaps independence could be avoided.
I do hope a cross party vision for Scotland can be agreed and to take on the SNP and win the argument that we are better together than apart
It's not just better together though.
There are great benefits in independence (agility to tackle unexpected problems and opportunities, the emotional benefit of sovereignty/freedom) as we have seen with Brexit.
But there are also great benefits in union to use scale to tackle big slow moving problems and opportunites, such as trade, climate change, China etc.
It seems to me that the solution is massive devolution, not only to the nations states but also to Local Authorities, with a very light federal structure for the really big issues where scale matters.
The problem is that the owners of power (i.e. the UK Government, previously Brussels) are not likely to willingly give up any power but will seek to accrete even more.
LibDem policy is unionist with heavy devolution within a light federal structure but it is unlikely to get past the Westminster powerhouse. So it will have to be the second best option - Scottish independence.
LDs could and should really get behind devolution and localism as a policy. It’s distinctly different to what’s on offer from the other parties.
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
Did you forget to put a weight in the nose?
The Airfix generation speaking.
Just so. When I were a lad and an inveterate model builder (I pretty much had a Tamiya Panzerarmee), Airfix were seen as poor man's kit building. Checking the eponymous magazine on Tesco's shelves, they're right at the forefront now; I hope Liz Truss is pushing trade deals for this vital sector!
I too favoured Tamiya. Much fun had with the motorised PanzerKamfwagen II. You always remember your first.
In evidence that boys never grow up, my brother sent me this for Christmas.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
I spoke to both my elderly parents yesterday. They've both had Jab One. Both of them said they would rather wait an extra couple of months for the follow up - and let younger/vulnerable people have at least one jab.
There was no question in their minds that this was the right thing to do.
Micky is crowing about the UK banning EU fisherman from electric pulse fishing in our waters. Micky is ignoring that the EU has already prohibited such fishing with certain exemptions. The two countries that mainly used these exemptions were The Netherlands and, you guessed it, the UK. Micky also seems unaware that France, despite being in the Anaconda-like grip of the EU, banned all its fishermen from using pulse fishing in 2019.
Micky is crowing about VAT being taken off sanitary products to the FM of a country that made such products free of charge to all who need them.
Hmm. Quite a lot of incorrect or partial statements in that comment TUD.
Firstly the exemptions actually cover all of the Pulse fishing going on even before the ban. They simply allowed the Dutch fishermen to reclassify their Pulse fishing as Scientific Research al la Japanese whaling.
The UK comment is tenuous at best as the pulse fishing concerned was being done by Dutch owned vessels using UK quotas. One of the great failings of the CFP system and successive UK Governments combined.
France has not banned its own fishermen from using pulse fishing. It has simply banned the use of pulse fishing by anyone inside the French 12 mile limit. This is the limit of its ability to control anything under CFP.
Nor will this change once the updated EU ban comes into effect in July. There will still be exemptions for 'scientific' fishing by Dutch boats and EU countries will still only be able to ban pulse fishing within their 12 mile limit whilst the UK will be able - should it choose - to ban it within all its controlled waters.
Next I would like to see them extend that ban to all Super trawlers.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
Did you forget to put a weight in the nose?
The Airfix generation speaking.
Just so. When I were a lad and an inveterate model builder (I pretty much had a Tamiya Panzerarmee), Airfix were seen as poor man's kit building. Checking the eponymous magazine on Tesco's shelves, they're right at the forefront now; I hope Liz Truss is pushing trade deals for this vital sector!
I too favoured Tamiya. Much fun had with the motorised PanzerKamfwagen II. You always remember your first.
In evidence that boys never grow up, my brother sent me this for Christmas.
Ha, I think the PzKpfw II was my first too.
Nice, straight lines on the splinter camo, masking tape or steady hand?
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
There is a tonne of research on this, because there are other vaccines for which you administer two doses.
Blair is correct, although any moderately intelligent politician would have realised this.
But, our political class as a whole cannot do arithmetic. And it seems the European political class can't, as well.
Blair is having a better pandemic than the PM, the FMs and the LotO.
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
With scale aviation modelling redemption is only as far away as the box of the next kit.
I am somehow unsurprised to discover that a large proportion of PBers have a weird, Aspergery, incel-esque obsession with making model airplanes.
Not all currently, evidently, but recalling their misspent youth glue-sniffing. In fairness, I think it's a generation thing from the 1950s-1970s - the older ones are passing away and the younger ones are or were computer games enthusiasts.
I had a phase. The one I remember doing - and it took ages - is the Ark Royal. Not a plane but a ship. A very BIG ship. The most vivid memory I have is not of the building process or the finished article but of getting glue on my fingertips. If you left this for a while - did not make the mistake of rushing things - it would dry up into a kind of crusty casing that you could then peel off in one go. An oddly pleasurably experience that I have yet to recreate in adult life.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
Makes sense. The only real downside is that there will likely be a very significant drop off in antibody levels during the extended gap before the booster. But the cost benefit analysis is definitely in favour of getting as many jabbed as possible when infection levels are so high.
Yes, that was brought up by the expert I was speaking to, by week 12 that 70% may have dropped to around 50, but because so many people will be immunised to a greater degree it's much less of an issue and even at 50% it stops a huge number of hospitalisations. They thought by the end of week 12 under my central scenario the UK will be close to herd immunity and will have achieved it in certain parts of the country by a combination of the vaccine and prior infections. That means the drop off in immunity is rendered meaningless.
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
With scale aviation modelling redemption is only as far away as the box of the next kit.
I am somehow unsurprised to discover that a large proportion of PBers have a weird, Aspergery, incel-esque obsession with making model airplanes.
Not all currently, evidently, but recalling their misspent youth glue-sniffing. In fairness, I think it's a generation thing from the 1950s-1970s - the older ones are passing away and the younger ones are or were computer games enthusiasts.
I had a phase. The one I remember doing - and it took ages - is the Ark Royal. Not a plane but a ship. A very BIG ship. The most vivid memory I have is not of the building process or the finished article but of getting glue on my fingertips. If you left this for a while - did not make the mistake of rushing things - it would dry up into a kind of crusty casing that you could then peel off in one go. An oddly pleasurably experience that I have yet to recreate in adult life.
My model making persisted into early adolescence. My pals, brother and mother made very unkind comments about that crusty casing.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
A lot of food is running low - especially luxury items - simply because so many people are so bored, and all the restaurants are shut, so they are now experimenting with elaborate home cooking. Especially over this festive period.
Same goes for the ingredients of mulled wine. I can't find star anise within a mile of my flat.
Luckily I have a small supply, my thermos is now full of a piping hot brew, and I am off to Richmond to drink it with a friend.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
There is a tonne of research on this, because there are other vaccines for which you administer two doses.
Blair is correct, although any moderately intelligent politician would have realised this.
But, our political class as a whole cannot do arithmetic. And it seems the European political class can't, as well.
Blair is having a better pandemic than the PM, the FMs and the LotO.
It’s possible his intervention was unhelpful, though, so unwilling are people to listen to him these days. A self created Cassandra.
The somewhat messy AZN trials also seemed to bear out the greater efficacy of the longer gap between shots for their vaccine. Though as pointed out, it’s hard to do such stuff both quickly and well, so the data is less than conclusive.
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
Somewhere, deep down in a Welsh landfill site, lies a half-completed Airfix Lockheed Lightning, waiting for a 4th millennium archaeologist to look on my works and despair.
Almost all Airix kits in small scales are grot. The 1/24 aircraft are good (I made at least 10 Harriers for retirement gifts) and the 1/12 Blower Bentley is so good it almost bankrupted the company. They probably still haven't made a penny profit off it even though it's been in production for 50 years.
As you'll be aware, the thing about the twin-fuselage Lightning was, twice as much fun if you enjoyed that sort of thing, twice as much hassle if you didn't.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
There is a tonne of research on this, because there are other vaccines for which you administer two doses.
Blair is correct, although any moderately intelligent politician would have realised this.
But, our political class as a whole cannot do arithmetic. And it seems the European political class can't, as well.
Blair is having a better pandemic than the PM, the FMs and the LotO.
It’s possible his intervention was unhelpful, though, so unwilling are people to listen to him these days. A self created Cassandra.
I agree.
Why did he not give the idea to SKS?
It would have benefitted both SKS and the reception of the idea.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
Literally five line items available at Lidl this morning, out of a 100 or more.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Oh man, don't get me started on the "grown in a Dutch greenhouse" tomatoes to which Waitrose seem to be addicted. They're tasteless and awful (and were in stock this morning at the Finchley Road Waitrose). I don't understand why supermarkets are importing greenhouse grown tomatoes from Europe at all. In the summer we get amazing tomatoes from Spain, Portugal and Italy, I fully understand importing them during the summer but winter imports make no sense, one greenhouse tomato is basically the same as another.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Big G, I fully understand your plight, but we are in the midst of a dangerous pandemic. Both my sons are/were in the final year of University degrees. The one in Wales has now suspended studies for a year, the one in England is soldiering on to the bitter end.
Neither have seen a lecturer since March. My eldest son who is on the autistic spectrum was in a Halls of Residence flat on his own for a fortnight whilst his overseas student flatmates were quarantining before arrival- not another soul for a fortnight. Perhaps we need to show a little of the wartime spirit that Boris Johnson enthuses over.
I am surprised that there the NUS are not pushing strongly for at least partial rebate of tuition fees for this year.
It seems reasonable to me.
The NUS are utterly spineless at issues that actually affect students. Most students only join because of the of the societies and the cheap bars.
I went to the NUS Conference in 2003.
The Conference spent more time debating the Iraq War (which had began a few weeks earlier and had nothing to do with students) than it did tuition fees. 🤦🏻♂️
All anyone at Conference seemed to want to discuss primarily was Palestine and Iraq.
Perhaps this is because politically minded young people are elevated and idealistic. They are animated more by global injustice than by the size of their wallet.
Virtue signalling is more important to them than the wellbeing of students.
Unless the wellbeing of students - in the view of students rather than yours or mine - is more affected by global injustice than by how much money they have.
Injustice tends to present as shortage of money, so there is a false dichotomy thing going on here. UK university students are not all Bullingdon club members; they are, especially now, in many cases in severe financial and non-financial distress and the primary job of those elected to represent them, is to represent them. If I employ a builder or a surgeon, say, I am always delighted to learn that they give up a lot of their spare time working for animal welfare and world peace, but that isn't really the point.
No, I know. It shouldn't be an either/or thing. In fact I'm surprised at the lack of militancy on fees. But if the clear majority view of students is that their reps should stick to the knitting and avoid pontificating on matters unrelated they need to be voting that way. It's a piece of cake to stand, as I recall. Not that I ever did.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Oh man, don't get me started on the "grown in a Dutch greenhouse" tomatoes to which Waitrose seem to be addicted. They're tasteless and awful (and were in stock this morning at the Finchley Road Waitrose). I don't understand why supermarkets are importing greenhouse grown tomatoes from Europe at all. In the summer we get amazing tomatoes from Spain, Portugal and Italy, I fully understand importing them during the summer but winter imports make no sense, one greenhouse tomato is basically the same as another.
Egyptian Strawberry's are the worst for zero taste. Far better to go for frozen fruit that is out of season.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
There is a tonne of research on this, because there are other vaccines for which you administer two doses.
Blair is correct, although any moderately intelligent politician would have realised this.
But, our political class as a whole cannot do arithmetic. And it seems the European political class can't, as well.
Blair is having a better pandemic than the PM, the FMs and the LotO.
It’s possible his intervention was unhelpful, though, so unwilling are people to listen to him these days. A self created Cassandra.
The somewhat messy AZN trials also seemed to bear out the greater efficacy of the longer gap between shots for their vaccine. Though as pointed out, it’s hard to do such stuff both quickly and well, so the data is less than conclusive.
My only issue was Blair made the suggestion himself, rather than saying there are experts who think we can save more lives by doing x, the government should be looking into alternative strategies.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
Makes sense. The only real downside is that there will likely be a very significant drop off in antibody levels during the extended gap before the booster. But the cost benefit analysis is definitely in favour of getting as many jabbed as possible when infection levels are so high.
Yes, that was brought up by the expert I was speaking to, by week 12 that 70% may have dropped to around 50, but because so many people will be immunised to a greater degree it's much less of an issue and even at 50% it stops a huge number of hospitalisations. They thought by the end of week 12 under my central scenario the UK will be close to herd immunity and will have achieved it in certain parts of the country by a combination of the vaccine and prior infections. That means the drop off in immunity is rendered meaningless.
Fingers crossed. Given the delayed availability of vaccines for large parts of the world, it will also act as a large scale field trial for delivery of the AZN vaccine for less well provided countries.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
Literally five line items available at Lidl this morning, out of a 100 or more.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Oh man, don't get me started on the "grown in a Dutch greenhouse" tomatoes to which Waitrose seem to be addicted. They're tasteless and awful (and were in stock this morning at the Finchley Road Waitrose). I don't understand why supermarkets are importing greenhouse grown tomatoes from Europe at all. In the summer we get amazing tomatoes from Spain, Portugal and Italy, I fully understand importing them during the summer but winter imports make no sense, one greenhouse tomato is basically the same as another.
Egyptian Strawberry's are the worst for zero taste. Far better to go for frozen fruit that is out of season.
Yeah, or don't buy it at all. I like strawberries in season. Out of season they're universally crap. I never understand people who buy them in November and then moan that they're sour or just tasteless.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
Literally five line items available at Lidl this morning, out of a 100 or more.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
There is a tonne of research on this, because there are other vaccines for which you administer two doses.
Blair is correct, although any moderately intelligent politician would have realised this.
But, our political class as a whole cannot do arithmetic. And it seems the European political class can't, as well.
Blair is having a better pandemic than the PM, the FMs and the LotO.
It’s possible his intervention was unhelpful, though, so unwilling are people to listen to him these days. A self created Cassandra.
The somewhat messy AZN trials also seemed to bear out the greater efficacy of the longer gap between shots for their vaccine. Though as pointed out, it’s hard to do such stuff both quickly and well, so the data is less than conclusive.
My only issue was Blair made the suggestion himself, rather than saying there are experts who think we can save more lives by doing x, the government should be looking into alternative strategies.
Personally I don't understand why all the first jabs aren't going to frontline NHS staff. The 80+ olds who are getting the jab as we speak should be told to shield at home until the NHS has been done. The hospital crisis seems to be mainly about staffing with too many self isolating.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Oh man, don't get me started on the "grown in a Dutch greenhouse" tomatoes to which Waitrose seem to be addicted. They're tasteless and awful (and were in stock this morning at the Finchley Road Waitrose). I don't understand why supermarkets are importing greenhouse grown tomatoes from Europe at all. In the summer we get amazing tomatoes from Spain, Portugal and Italy, I fully understand importing them during the summer but winter imports make no sense, one greenhouse tomato is basically the same as another.
Egyptian Strawberry's are the worst for zero taste. Far better to go for frozen fruit that is out of season.
Yeah, or don't buy it at all. I like strawberries in season. Out of season they're universally crap. I never understand people who buy them in November and then moan that they're sour or just tasteless.
CostCo big bags of frozen fruits are great for the winter months.
Journos being rather naughty by only quoting part of what he said...which was if this is the case, the vaccines will be able to be adapted in a few weeks.
The border control issue, I still have no idea after all thrse months and being an island how the government haven't managed to come up with a solution where they are effectively closed to all but a very small subsection of crucial workers.
Unfortunately the opposition and media don’t care about shutting borders, so it never gets discussed and government gets away with it.
People should be tested at the border. Odd they haven't put that in place yet.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
Makes sense. The only real downside is that there will likely be a very significant drop off in antibody levels during the extended gap before the booster. But the cost benefit analysis is definitely in favour of getting as many jabbed as possible when infection levels are so high.
Yes, that was brought up by the expert I was speaking to, by week 12 that 70% may have dropped to around 50, but because so many people will be immunised to a greater degree it's much less of an issue and even at 50% it stops a huge number of hospitalisations. They thought by the end of week 12 under my central scenario the UK will be close to herd immunity and will have achieved it in certain parts of the country by a combination of the vaccine and prior infections. That means the drop off in immunity is rendered meaningless.
Fingers crossed. Given the delayed availability of vaccines for large parts of the world, it will also act as a large scale field trial for delivery of the AZN vaccine for less well provided countries.
Yes, that's definitely true. I think a lot of developing nations will be keeping their fingers crossed that this works and the UK starts showing dropping infection rates by mid February using the single jab method. It would really open the floodgates if it is proven to work in practice rather than just in theory as the JVCI and other experts are saying.
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
Did you forget to put a weight in the nose?
The Airfix generation speaking.
Just so. When I were a lad and an inveterate model builder (I pretty much had a Tamiya Panzerarmee), Airfix were seen as poor man's kit building. Checking the eponymous magazine on Tesco's shelves, they're right at the forefront now; I hope Liz Truss is pushing trade deals for this vital sector!
I too favoured Tamiya. Much fun had with the motorised PanzerKamfwagen II. You always remember your first.
In evidence that boys never grow up, my brother sent me this for Christmas.
Ha, I think the PzKpfw II was my first too.
Nice, straight lines on the splinter camo, masking tape or steady hand?
I remember my first Airfix kit was a Christmas present of a WW2 25 pounder gun. From the instructions, "the trunion base" became one of those by-words in our house for a thing that nobody really knows what it is or what it does.....
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
Literally five line items available at Lidl this morning, out of a 100 or more.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
Literally five line items available at Lidl this morning, out of a 100 or more.
That sounds like a Lidl issue.
Well, it may be a little issue to you, but... etc
Aldi vegetables seem to be missing, too.
I'm shocked that the two supermarkets that rely on European imports the most are struggling with supply chain issues. Shocked I tell you, shocked.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
Literally five line items available at Lidl this morning, out of a 100 or more.
That sounds like a Lidl issue.
My Asda order has 11 substitutions and 1 not available (cauliflower) out of 40 items
On the plus side I am getting an Organic Cucumber instead of the cheaper one.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Oh man, don't get me started on the "grown in a Dutch greenhouse" tomatoes to which Waitrose seem to be addicted. They're tasteless and awful (and were in stock this morning at the Finchley Road Waitrose). I don't understand why supermarkets are importing greenhouse grown tomatoes from Europe at all. In the summer we get amazing tomatoes from Spain, Portugal and Italy, I fully understand importing them during the summer but winter imports make no sense, one greenhouse tomato is basically the same as another.
Egyptian Strawberry's are the worst for zero taste. Far better to go for frozen fruit that is out of season.
Yeah, or don't buy it at all. I like strawberries in season. Out of season they're universally crap. I never understand people who buy them in November and then moan that they're sour or just tasteless.
I am a massive fan of seasonal eating and combine that with only buying British for anything that can be grown here. I will still buy imported bananas, citrus fruits etc but nothing that has a UK season.
My only exception to seasonal buying is tomatoes as I am kind of addicted to them and use them as part of my weight loss programme. But even there if I can't buy British I don't bother.
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
With scale aviation modelling redemption is only as far away as the box of the next kit.
I am somehow unsurprised to discover that a large proportion of PBers have a weird, Aspergery, incel-esque obsession with making model airplanes.
Not all currently, evidently, but recalling their misspent youth glue-sniffing. In fairness, I think it's a generation thing from the 1950s-1970s - the older ones are passing away and the younger ones are or were computer games enthusiasts.
I had a phase. The one I remember doing - and it took ages - is the Ark Royal. Not a plane but a ship. A very BIG ship. The most vivid memory I have is not of the building process or the finished article but of getting glue on my fingertips. If you left this for a while - did not make the mistake of rushing things - it would dry up into a kind of crusty casing that you could then peel off in one go. An oddly pleasurably experience that I have yet to recreate in adult life.
I remember the glue experience and peeling it off my fingers.
When I was about 12, I designed my own aircraft about 18" long and constructed it with balsa wood and that glue, plus a semitransparent paper over the wings which you doped to make it contract and stiffen. I painted it in camouflague colours.
When I finally launched it from my bedroom window, it crashlanded on the path beneath and splintered. My father laughed. The things you suddenly remember!
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
Literally five line items available at Lidl this morning, out of a 100 or more.
That sounds like a Lidl issue.
Well, it may be a little issue to you, but... etc
Aldi vegetables seem to be missing, too.
I'm shocked that the two supermarkets that rely on European imports the most are struggling with supply chain issues. Shocked I tell you, shocked.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Oh man, don't get me started on the "grown in a Dutch greenhouse" tomatoes to which Waitrose seem to be addicted. They're tasteless and awful (and were in stock this morning at the Finchley Road Waitrose). I don't understand why supermarkets are importing greenhouse grown tomatoes from Europe at all. In the summer we get amazing tomatoes from Spain, Portugal and Italy, I fully understand importing them during the summer but winter imports make no sense, one greenhouse tomato is basically the same as another.
Egyptian Strawberry's are the worst for zero taste. Far better to go for frozen fruit that is out of season.
Yeah, or don't buy it at all. I like strawberries in season. Out of season they're universally crap. I never understand people who buy them in November and then moan that they're sour or just tasteless.
I am a massive fan of seasonal eating and combine that with only buying British for anything that can be grown here. I will still buy imported bananas, citrus fruits etc but nothing that has a UK season.
My only exception to seasonal buying is tomatoes as I am kind of addicted to them and use them as part of my weight loss programme. But even there if I can't buy British I don't bother.
Italian tomatoes in the summer is basically food of the gods. With buffalo mozzarella, good Italian or Greek olive oil, tear some basil leaves and sprinkle a bit of sea salt. Makes me want summer to hurry up!
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
There is a tonne of research on this, because there are other vaccines for which you administer two doses.
Blair is correct, although any moderately intelligent politician would have realised this.
But, our political class as a whole cannot do arithmetic. And it seems the European political class can't, as well.
Blair is having a better pandemic than the PM, the FMs and the LotO.
It’s possible his intervention was unhelpful, though, so unwilling are people to listen to him these days. A self created Cassandra.
The somewhat messy AZN trials also seemed to bear out the greater efficacy of the longer gap between shots for their vaccine. Though as pointed out, it’s hard to do such stuff both quickly and well, so the data is less than conclusive.
My only issue was Blair made the suggestion himself, rather than saying there are experts who think we can save more lives by doing x, the government should be looking into alternative strategies.
Personally I don't understand why all the first jabs aren't going to frontline NHS staff. The 80+ olds who are getting the jab as we speak should be told to shield at home until the NHS has been done. The hospital crisis seems to be mainly about staffing with too many self isolating.
Maybe I have missed something here?
Tricky one. Ideally I think we want to use the Pfizer vaccine on the most vulnerable. But then I agree that NHS and social care workers should have been prioritised. I’d certainly like to see frontline health care staff prioritised for the AZ vaccine.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
Literally five line items available at Lidl this morning, out of a 100 or more.
That sounds like a Lidl issue.
Well, it may be a little issue to you, but... etc
Aldi vegetables seem to be missing, too.
I'm shocked that the two supermarkets that rely on European imports the most are struggling with supply chain issues. Shocked I tell you, shocked.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
There is a tonne of research on this, because there are other vaccines for which you administer two doses.
Blair is correct, although any moderately intelligent politician would have realised this.
But, our political class as a whole cannot do arithmetic. And it seems the European political class can't, as well.
Blair is having a better pandemic than the PM, the FMs and the LotO.
It’s possible his intervention was unhelpful, though, so unwilling are people to listen to him these days. A self created Cassandra.
The somewhat messy AZN trials also seemed to bear out the greater efficacy of the longer gap between shots for their vaccine. Though as pointed out, it’s hard to do such stuff both quickly and well, so the data is less than conclusive.
My only issue was Blair made the suggestion himself, rather than saying there are experts who think we can save more lives by doing x, the government should be looking into alternative strategies.
Personally I don't understand why all the first jabs aren't going to frontline NHS staff. The 80+ olds who are getting the jab as we speak should be told to shield at home until the NHS has been done. The hospital crisis seems to be mainly about staffing with too many self isolating.
Maybe I have missed something here?
I strongly agree. It would be interesting to know how the priority list was arrived at.
I suspect it is because the people drawing up the vaccine priority list were largely doctors or public health officials, and they daren't put themselves at highest priority.
We could just imagine the media uproar if a bunch of doctors decided they are top priority.
In fact, almost all the media have had a truly disgraceful pandemic. I am becoming a fan of China's law against "picking quarrels and making trouble".
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It's No. 11 Group not "11th Group" for fuck's sake.
Quite right too. We're not Americans.
On topic - what's your view of the UK launchpads? Presumably OK for throwing small sats into polar orbits? But not much else - IIRC that was the whole rationale for building Woomera in the middle of **** all down south in Oz.
Its not so much the grammar as that there aren’t, and never were, that many groups.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
Literally five line items available at Lidl this morning, out of a 100 or more.
That sounds like a Lidl issue.
Well, it may be a little issue to you, but... etc
Aldi vegetables seem to be missing, too.
I'm shocked that the two supermarkets that rely on European imports the most are struggling with supply chain issues. Shocked I tell you, shocked.
I’ve never been in Aldi...
Both Aldi and Lidl are slightly schizophrenic in their stock. Whilst they have large amounts of European imported goods - often of stuff it is not otherwise possible to get in the UK and which can be very nice - they are also massive supporters of local businesses and farmers. Aldi have just announced a huge expansion of local/British purchasing with the aim of having agreements with 1000 UK small businesses within the next 5 years.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
Makes sense. The only real downside is that there will likely be a very significant drop off in antibody levels during the extended gap before the booster. But the cost benefit analysis is definitely in favour of getting as many jabbed as possible when infection levels are so high.
Yes. It's a rare example of justified panicky 'cut the corners' action, isn't it. It tells us just how bad things are short term.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
There is a tonne of research on this, because there are other vaccines for which you administer two doses.
Blair is correct, although any moderately intelligent politician would have realised this.
But, our political class as a whole cannot do arithmetic. And it seems the European political class can't, as well.
Blair is having a better pandemic than the PM, the FMs and the LotO.
It’s possible his intervention was unhelpful, though, so unwilling are people to listen to him these days. A self created Cassandra.
The somewhat messy AZN trials also seemed to bear out the greater efficacy of the longer gap between shots for their vaccine. Though as pointed out, it’s hard to do such stuff both quickly and well, so the data is less than conclusive.
My only issue was Blair made the suggestion himself, rather than saying there are experts who think we can save more lives by doing x, the government should be looking into alternative strategies.
Personally I don't understand why all the first jabs aren't going to frontline NHS staff. The 80+ olds who are getting the jab as we speak should be told to shield at home until the NHS has been done. The hospital crisis seems to be mainly about staffing with too many self isolating.
Maybe I have missed something here?
I strongly agree. It would be interesting to know how the priority list was arrived at.
I suspect it is because the people drawing up the vaccine priority list were largely doctors or public health officials, and they daren't put themselves at highest priority.
We could just imagine the media uproar if a bunch of doctors decided they are top priority.
In fact, almost all the media have had a truly disgraceful pandemic. I am becoming a fan of China's law against "picking quarrels and making trouble".
My understanding is that it was based on those most likely to die of the disease. If you are an 80- year old in a nursing home then catching the disease is far more of a risk than if you are a 40 year old nurse. Yes there is still a risk to the nurse but the calculation seems to be that the most important thing is stopping people dying.
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
Did you forget to put a weight in the nose?
The Airfix generation speaking.
Just so. When I were a lad and an inveterate model builder (I pretty much had a Tamiya Panzerarmee), Airfix were seen as poor man's kit building. Checking the eponymous magazine on Tesco's shelves, they're right at the forefront now; I hope Liz Truss is pushing trade deals for this vital sector!
I too favoured Tamiya. Much fun had with the motorised PanzerKamfwagen II. You always remember your first.
In evidence that boys never grow up, my brother sent me this for Christmas.
Ha, I think the PzKpfw II was my first too.
Nice, straight lines on the splinter camo, masking tape or steady hand?
Ah, I think I have generated a misunderstanding. My brother sent me the photo, not the airfix kit!
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
With scale aviation modelling redemption is only as far away as the box of the next kit.
I am somehow unsurprised to discover that a large proportion of PBers have a weird, Aspergery, incel-esque obsession with making model airplanes.
Not all currently, evidently, but recalling their misspent youth glue-sniffing. In fairness, I think it's a generation thing from the 1950s-1970s - the older ones are passing away and the younger ones are or were computer games enthusiasts.
I had a phase. The one I remember doing - and it took ages - is the Ark Royal. Not a plane but a ship. A very BIG ship. The most vivid memory I have is not of the building process or the finished article but of getting glue on my fingertips. If you left this for a while - did not make the mistake of rushing things - it would dry up into a kind of crusty casing that you could then peel off in one go. An oddly pleasurably experience that I have yet to recreate in adult life.
I remember the glue experience and peeling it off my fingers.
When I was about 12, I designed my own aircraft about 18" long and constructed it with balsa wood and that glue, plus a semitransparent paper over the wings which you doped to make it contract and stiffen. I painted it in camouflague colours.
When I finally launched it from my bedroom window, it crashlanded on the path beneath and splintered. My father laughed. The things you suddenly remember!
Yes, I too spent my childhood hunched over the humbrol paints.
I was surprised recently to see that they now come covered in health warnings not to breathe them in.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It's No. 11 Group not "11th Group" for fuck's sake.
Quite right too. We're not Americans.
On topic - what's your view of the UK launchpads? Presumably OK for throwing small sats into polar orbits? But not much else - IIRC that was the whole rationale for building Woomera in the middle of **** all down south in Oz.
Its not so much the grammar as that there aren’t, and never were, that many groups.
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
With scale aviation modelling redemption is only as far away as the box of the next kit.
I am somehow unsurprised to discover that a large proportion of PBers have a weird, Aspergery, incel-esque obsession with making model airplanes.
Not all currently, evidently, but recalling their misspent youth glue-sniffing. In fairness, I think it's a generation thing from the 1950s-1970s - the older ones are passing away and the younger ones are or were computer games enthusiasts.
I had a phase. The one I remember doing - and it took ages - is the Ark Royal. Not a plane but a ship. A very BIG ship. The most vivid memory I have is not of the building process or the finished article but of getting glue on my fingertips. If you left this for a while - did not make the mistake of rushing things - it would dry up into a kind of crusty casing that you could then peel off in one go. An oddly pleasurably experience that I have yet to recreate in adult life.
I remember the glue experience and peeling it off my fingers.
When I was about 12, I designed my own aircraft about 18" long and constructed it with balsa wood and that glue, plus a semitransparent paper over the wings which you doped to make it contract and stiffen. I painted it in camouflague colours.
When I finally launched it from my bedroom window, it crashlanded on the path beneath and splintered. My father laughed. The things you suddenly remember!
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
With scale aviation modelling redemption is only as far away as the box of the next kit.
I am somehow unsurprised to discover that a large proportion of PBers have a weird, Aspergery, incel-esque obsession with making model airplanes.
Not all currently, evidently, but recalling their misspent youth glue-sniffing. In fairness, I think it's a generation thing from the 1950s-1970s - the older ones are passing away and the younger ones are or were computer games enthusiasts.
I had a phase. The one I remember doing - and it took ages - is the Ark Royal. Not a plane but a ship. A very BIG ship. The most vivid memory I have is not of the building process or the finished article but of getting glue on my fingertips. If you left this for a while - did not make the mistake of rushing things - it would dry up into a kind of crusty casing that you could then peel off in one go. An oddly pleasurably experience that I have yet to recreate in adult life.
I remember the glue experience and peeling it off my fingers.
When I was about 12, I designed my own aircraft about 18" long and constructed it with balsa wood and that glue, plus a semitransparent paper over the wings which you doped to make it contract and stiffen. I painted it in camouflague colours.
When I finally launched it from my bedroom window, it crashlanded on the path beneath and splintered. My father laughed. The things you suddenly remember!
Yes, I too spent my childhood hunched over the humbrol paints.
I was surprised recently to see that they now come covered in health warnings not to breathe them in.
I cannot think of a better way to encourage children to do it.
Brilliant header, @Dura_Ace . Am I qualified to comment, as a long time since I once built a Hasegawa P38 ? And bodged it horribly.
With scale aviation modelling redemption is only as far away as the box of the next kit.
I am somehow unsurprised to discover that a large proportion of PBers have a weird, Aspergery, incel-esque obsession with making model airplanes.
Not all currently, evidently, but recalling their misspent youth glue-sniffing. In fairness, I think it's a generation thing from the 1950s-1970s - the older ones are passing away and the younger ones are or were computer games enthusiasts.
I had a phase. The one I remember doing - and it took ages - is the Ark Royal. Not a plane but a ship. A very BIG ship. The most vivid memory I have is not of the building process or the finished article but of getting glue on my fingertips. If you left this for a while - did not make the mistake of rushing things - it would dry up into a kind of crusty casing that you could then peel off in one go. An oddly pleasurably experience that I have yet to recreate in adult life.
My model making persisted into early adolescence. My pals, brother and mother made very unkind comments about that crusty casing.
They were jealous. Well, not your mum, but those other bozos.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
There is a tonne of research on this, because there are other vaccines for which you administer two doses.
Blair is correct, although any moderately intelligent politician would have realised this.
But, our political class as a whole cannot do arithmetic. And it seems the European political class can't, as well.
Blair is having a better pandemic than the PM, the FMs and the LotO.
It’s possible his intervention was unhelpful, though, so unwilling are people to listen to him these days. A self created Cassandra.
The somewhat messy AZN trials also seemed to bear out the greater efficacy of the longer gap between shots for their vaccine. Though as pointed out, it’s hard to do such stuff both quickly and well, so the data is less than conclusive.
My only issue was Blair made the suggestion himself, rather than saying there are experts who think we can save more lives by doing x, the government should be looking into alternative strategies.
Personally I don't understand why all the first jabs aren't going to frontline NHS staff. The 80+ olds who are getting the jab as we speak should be told to shield at home until the NHS has been done. The hospital crisis seems to be mainly about staffing with too many self isolating.
Maybe I have missed something here?
I strongly agree. It would be interesting to know how the priority list was arrived at.
I suspect it is because the people drawing up the vaccine priority list were largely doctors or public health officials, and they daren't put themselves at highest priority.
We could just imagine the media uproar if a bunch of doctors decided they are top priority.
In fact, almost all the media have had a truly disgraceful pandemic. I am becoming a fan of China's law against "picking quarrels and making trouble".
My understanding is that it was based on those most likely to die of the disease. If you are an 80- year old in a nursing home then catching the disease is far more of a risk than if you are a 40 year old nurse. Yes there is still a risk to the nurse but the calculation seems to be that the most important thing is stopping people dying.
I bet the care homes could have been largely protected by vaccinating everyone going in to the care home, and not the residents.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
There is a tonne of research on this, because there are other vaccines for which you administer two doses.
Blair is correct, although any moderately intelligent politician would have realised this.
But, our political class as a whole cannot do arithmetic. And it seems the European political class can't, as well.
Blair is having a better pandemic than the PM, the FMs and the LotO.
It’s possible his intervention was unhelpful, though, so unwilling are people to listen to him these days. A self created Cassandra.
The somewhat messy AZN trials also seemed to bear out the greater efficacy of the longer gap between shots for their vaccine. Though as pointed out, it’s hard to do such stuff both quickly and well, so the data is less than conclusive.
My only issue was Blair made the suggestion himself, rather than saying there are experts who think we can save more lives by doing x, the government should be looking into alternative strategies.
Personally I don't understand why all the first jabs aren't going to frontline NHS staff. The 80+ olds who are getting the jab as we speak should be told to shield at home until the NHS has been done. The hospital crisis seems to be mainly about staffing with too many self isolating.
Maybe I have missed something here?
I strongly agree. It would be interesting to know how the priority list was arrived at.
I suspect it is because the people drawing up the vaccine priority list were largely doctors or public health officials, and they daren't put themselves at highest priority.
We could just imagine the media uproar if a bunch of doctors decided they are top priority.
In fact, almost all the media have had a truly disgraceful pandemic. I am becoming a fan of China's law against "picking quarrels and making trouble".
My understanding is that it was based on those most likely to die of the disease. If you are an 80- year old in a nursing home then catching the disease is far more of a risk than if you are a 40 year old nurse. Yes there is still a risk to the nurse but the calculation seems to be that the most important thing is stopping people dying.
Does that mean they aren’t confident that vaccine reduces transmission? I don’t think anyone is suggesting that frontline staff should be vaccinated for their own sake - though that’s a nice bonus - it’s more that we want to stop it spreading in care settings.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
A lot of food is running low - especially luxury items - simply because so many people are so bored, and all the restaurants are shut, so they are now experimenting with elaborate home cooking. Especially over this festive period.
Same goes for the ingredients of mulled wine. I can't find star anise within a mile of my flat.
Luckily I have a small supply, my thermos is now full of a piping hot brew, and I am off to Richmond to drink it with a friend.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Oh man, don't get me started on the "grown in a Dutch greenhouse" tomatoes to which Waitrose seem to be addicted. They're tasteless and awful (and were in stock this morning at the Finchley Road Waitrose). I don't understand why supermarkets are importing greenhouse grown tomatoes from Europe at all. In the summer we get amazing tomatoes from Spain, Portugal and Italy, I fully understand importing them during the summer but winter imports make no sense, one greenhouse tomato is basically the same as another.
Egyptian Strawberry's are the worst for zero taste. Far better to go for frozen fruit that is out of season.
Yeah, or don't buy it at all. I like strawberries in season. Out of season they're universally crap. I never understand people who buy them in November and then moan that they're sour or just tasteless.
Thought I was the only one.
Out of interest, how are you with cherries? I start buying them when the spanish crop becomes available in late spring and then pig the english variety during their short season. Then I don't touch them until next spring.
American cherries are the worst - the size of plums and the flavour of water.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
A lot of food is running low - especially luxury items - simply because so many people are so bored, and all the restaurants are shut, so they are now experimenting with elaborate home cooking. Especially over this festive period.
Same goes for the ingredients of mulled wine. I can't find star anise within a mile of my flat.
Luckily I have a small supply, my thermos is now full of a piping hot brew, and I am off to Richmond to drink it with a friend.
Later, PB
Not a reasonable excuse to leave home, sadly.
Yes it is. You are allowed to meet one other person, outdoors.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Oh man, don't get me started on the "grown in a Dutch greenhouse" tomatoes to which Waitrose seem to be addicted. They're tasteless and awful (and were in stock this morning at the Finchley Road Waitrose). I don't understand why supermarkets are importing greenhouse grown tomatoes from Europe at all. In the summer we get amazing tomatoes from Spain, Portugal and Italy, I fully understand importing them during the summer but winter imports make no sense, one greenhouse tomato is basically the same as another.
You shop in the Finchley Road Waitrose? How many hours do you allow for parking?
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It's No. 11 Group not "11th Group" for fuck's sake.
Quite right too. We're not Americans.
On topic - what's your view of the UK launchpads? Presumably OK for throwing small sats into polar orbits? But not much else - IIRC that was the whole rationale for building Woomera in the middle of **** all down south in Oz.
Its not so much the grammar as that there aren’t, and never were, that many groups.
“After a week of this pounding, Churchill traveled to the headquarters of the 11th Fighter Group, the unit responsible for the defense of the air over London and southeastern England.“
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
I don't know if either or both of you are joking, but this isn't [yet] the siege of Leningrad, is it? When the avocadoes disappear we'll know things are serious.
A lot of food is running low - especially luxury items - simply because so many people are so bored, and all the restaurants are shut, so they are now experimenting with elaborate home cooking. Especially over this festive period.
Same goes for the ingredients of mulled wine. I can't find star anise within a mile of my flat.
Luckily I have a small supply, my thermos is now full of a piping hot brew, and I am off to Richmond to drink it with a friend.
Later, PB
Not a reasonable excuse to leave home, sadly.
Yes it is. You are allowed to meet one other person, outdoors.
Not for any old reason, at least under the guidance.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Oh man, don't get me started on the "grown in a Dutch greenhouse" tomatoes to which Waitrose seem to be addicted. They're tasteless and awful (and were in stock this morning at the Finchley Road Waitrose). I don't understand why supermarkets are importing greenhouse grown tomatoes from Europe at all. In the summer we get amazing tomatoes from Spain, Portugal and Italy, I fully understand importing them during the summer but winter imports make no sense, one greenhouse tomato is basically the same as another.
You shop in the Finchley Road Waitrose? How many hours do you allow for parking?
It’s the worst car park in London. How many cars must get a scrape or a dent trying to park there?
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It's No. 11 Group not "11th Group" for fuck's sake.
Quite right too. We're not Americans.
On topic - what's your view of the UK launchpads? Presumably OK for throwing small sats into polar orbits? But not much else - IIRC that was the whole rationale for building Woomera in the middle of **** all down south in Oz.
Its not so much the grammar as that there aren’t, and never were, that many groups.
An interesting Twitter thread on Scottish independence which looks at the issue from the wrong angle. It isn't reasons why departure is so problematic that is concerning people, its reasons why staying is so problematic.
We've just had Brexit. Leaving the EU, EEA and CU very clearly sets this country back yet it is supported because staying in was perceived as worse. The same is true in Scotland where the UK is increasingly the "other" that is repressing their ability to forge their own path.
Saying "leaving won't be easy" is to rerun the failed brexit remain campaign. Positive reasons to stay need to be argued - not just hot air ones but practicalities as to how Scotland can be made better inside a refreshed union. Not "rebellious Scots to crush" as advocated by the Baronet of Epping Forest.
I agree and the positive reasons for remaining in the union will become apparent when indyref2 happens
Don't forget that the positive reasons are actual things the Union will bring to Scotland, not "this is better than if you leave which will be really shit".
I really struggle for what those positives are right now. The UK is a disfunctional mess.
Compare COVID vaccination rate with the EU. Could SINDY have afforded the furlough scheme etc? (Not that ScotGov has spent all the money on Scottish businesss).
You really are a nasty piece of work. We would of course have just borrowed money for it , just like the UK did. How can unionists be so dumb to assume other people don't understand that.
Is that before or after you’ve met the Copenhagen criteria to join the EU?
Scotland already meets all of the criteria for EU membership, other than being an independent country. The convergence criteria are for the final stage of EMU and need not be met to become an EU member state.
The EU constitution requires membership of either Schengen or the Common Travel Area. The UK leaving doesn't end that. Scotland could opt to join (remain in) the Common Travel Area.
Also 'Sweden' for the bollox Euro adoption argument as well.
Technically the rules have been tightened since Sweden got themselves an unofficial opt out. Though still the Scots could opt out.
But I still think the SNP should advocate Euro membership and seek to win the argument on that. It is the best honest answer to the currency question, the idea of a "Sterling union" is nonsense, if you want that then stay within the United Kingdom.
The only honest independent Scotland currency options is an actual Scottish currency (not printing Scottish sterling notes) and the Euro.
That is right, the SNP need to embrace an independent currency as a stepping stone to the euro. Clinging to sterling isn't a viable option. Sweden don't have an unofficial opt out, they are just choosing not to exercise their obligation to join the euro right now. Scotland could do that too but I think it would make more sense to adopt the euro once the convergence criteria are met (which won't happen quickly). I think it should be fairly easy to arrange a 1-2 year transition arrangement with rUK regarding the border, CTA etc, while the currency is set up and EU accession talks start. It should be possible to set up a trusted trader scheme for most cross border trade to minimise paperwork. The border is quite simple, only a handful of crossing points and loads of space for infrastructure. The CTA would continue, I think - the political pressure to do so on both sides of the border would be immense, and Ireland is a significant precedent. If rUK refused Scotland could join Schengen immediately, even before joining the EU. Scotland would probably take on a population weighted share of UK debt, although that would have to be negotiated - legally the liability would fall on rUK. I think both sides would be reasonable - Scotland can offer a 5 or 10 year lease on Faslane as a gesture of goodwill, I doubt rUK would want to find a new home for its nukes immediately.
You talk as is severing a 300 year old union is like leaving student digs for a different flat down the road. If Brexit has shown anything, it has shown that major geopolitical disruptions - and partitions - have unimaginable consequences, many of them very bad, and departure is much much harder than anyone can really comprehend.
If you are sold on Scottish independence for emotional/sovereign reasons, fair enough: you are unpersuadable, and that's your right.
But let's not be stupid. Scottish indy would plunge Scotland into economic Depression and immediate fiscal nightmare, it would also provoke a long and deep recession in rUK. The political aftershocks would persist for many years, the wrangling might last a decade (Brexit has taken nearly 5 years, and will still go on in a lesser way).This is one reason why referendums should only be once a generation, and also why the power to allow a referendum resides with the UK government at Westminster - where Scots MPs are fully represented, alongside the English, Welsh and Northern Irish.
If the Scots government is allowed to call a referendum every time they have a majority - ie any time they like - the uncertaintly and chaos will paralyse the whole British nation in perpetuity. It cannot be permitted.
Boris is right. Once in a generation. If this decision by the UK government so enrages Scots that they become evermore committed to indy, then so be it. That means they have given up on the UK and will leave anyway, evenetually. That doesn't mean Boris' decision is wrong. It is morally, economically and politically correct. He has to govern and make decisions on what is best for the whole of the UK.
There will be no indyref 2 until at least the next GE in 2024.
If you want to override the clearly expressed will of the Scottish population you are going to have to be prepared to do so by force. HYUFD is right on that. I don't disagree that Scottish independence will raise many economic challenges in the short run. That is why I used to be a Unionist, I thought it wasn't worth it. But Brexit has changed the calculus - Scotland is being taken in a direction its people have explicitly rejected, with absolutely no consideration given to its interests. The Union has become an unbalanced, toxic, abusive relationship. It is worth absorbing that short term pain to escape that.
Given Sturgeon is saying she will not hold an indyref2 without Westminster consent even if the SNP win a majority in May Boris may not even need to go as far as Rajoy did with Catalonia in 2017 in order to stick to his line that he will not grant the Scots a legal independence referendum.
Then the divisions would start to emerge between the SNP hardliners and those around Sturgeon
Dare I suggest that references to Catalonia 2017, in the context of Scotland, are less than helpful to the Unionist cause.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Oh man, don't get me started on the "grown in a Dutch greenhouse" tomatoes to which Waitrose seem to be addicted. They're tasteless and awful (and were in stock this morning at the Finchley Road Waitrose). I don't understand why supermarkets are importing greenhouse grown tomatoes from Europe at all. In the summer we get amazing tomatoes from Spain, Portugal and Italy, I fully understand importing them during the summer but winter imports make no sense, one greenhouse tomato is basically the same as another.
You shop in the Finchley Road Waitrose? How many hours do you allow for parking?
The real way to enjoy tomatoes is to grow them yourself..
An interesting Twitter thread on Scottish independence which looks at the issue from the wrong angle. It isn't reasons why departure is so problematic that is concerning people, its reasons why staying is so problematic.
We've just had Brexit. Leaving the EU, EEA and CU very clearly sets this country back yet it is supported because staying in was perceived as worse. The same is true in Scotland where the UK is increasingly the "other" that is repressing their ability to forge their own path.
Saying "leaving won't be easy" is to rerun the failed brexit remain campaign. Positive reasons to stay need to be argued - not just hot air ones but practicalities as to how Scotland can be made better inside a refreshed union. Not "rebellious Scots to crush" as advocated by the Baronet of Epping Forest.
I agree and the positive reasons for remaining in the union will become apparent when indyref2 happens
Don't forget that the positive reasons are actual things the Union will bring to Scotland, not "this is better than if you leave which will be really shit".
I really struggle for what those positives are right now. The UK is a disfunctional mess.
Compare COVID vaccination rate with the EU. Could SINDY have afforded the furlough scheme etc? (Not that ScotGov has spent all the money on Scottish businesss).
You really are a nasty piece of work. We would of course have just borrowed money for it , just like the UK did. How can unionists be so dumb to assume other people don't understand that.
Is that before or after you’ve met the Copenhagen criteria to join the EU?
Scotland already meets all of the criteria for EU membership, other than being an independent country. The convergence criteria are for the final stage of EMU and need not be met to become an EU member state.
The EU constitution requires membership of either Schengen or the Common Travel Area. The UK leaving doesn't end that. Scotland could opt to join (remain in) the Common Travel Area.
Also 'Sweden' for the bollox Euro adoption argument as well.
Technically the rules have been tightened since Sweden got themselves an unofficial opt out. Though still the Scots could opt out.
But I still think the SNP should advocate Euro membership and seek to win the argument on that. It is the best honest answer to the currency question, the idea of a "Sterling union" is nonsense, if you want that then stay within the United Kingdom.
The only honest independent Scotland currency options is an actual Scottish currency (not printing Scottish sterling notes) and the Euro.
That is right, the SNP need to embrace an independent currency as a stepping stone to the euro. Clinging to sterling isn't a viable option. Sweden don't have an unofficial opt out, they are just choosing not to exercise their obligation to join the euro right now. Scotland could do that too but I think it would make more sense to adopt the euro once the convergence criteria are met (which won't happen quickly). I think it should be fairly easy to arrange a 1-2 year transition arrangement with rUK regarding the border, CTA etc, while the currency is set up and EU accession talks start. It should be possible to set up a trusted trader scheme for most cross border trade to minimise paperwork. The border is quite simple, only a handful of crossing points and loads of space for infrastructure. The CTA would continue, I think - the political pressure to do so on both sides of the border would be immense, and Ireland is a significant precedent. If rUK refused Scotland could join Schengen immediately, even before joining the EU. Scotland would probably take on a population weighted share of UK debt, although that would have to be negotiated - legally the liability would fall on rUK. I think both sides would be reasonable - Scotland can offer a 5 or 10 year lease on Faslane as a gesture of goodwill, I doubt rUK would want to find a new home for its nukes immediately.
You talk as is severing a 300 year old union is like leaving student digs for a different flat down the road. If Brexit has shown anything, it has shown that major geopolitical disruptions - and partitions - have unimaginable consequences, many of them very bad, and departure is much much harder than anyone can really comprehend.
If you are sold on Scottish independence for emotional/sovereign reasons, fair enough: you are unpersuadable, and that's your right.
But let's not be stupid. Scottish indy would plunge Scotland into economic Depression and immediate fiscal nightmare, it would also provoke a long and deep recession in rUK. The political aftershocks would persist for many years, the wrangling might last a decade (Brexit has taken nearly 5 years, and will still go on in a lesser way).This is one reason why referendums should only be once a generation, and also why the power to allow a referendum resides with the UK government at Westminster - where Scots MPs are fully represented, alongside the English, Welsh and Northern Irish.
If the Scots government is allowed to call a referendum every time they have a majority - ie any time they like - the uncertaintly and chaos will paralyse the whole British nation in perpetuity. It cannot be permitted.
Boris is right. Once in a generation. If this decision by the UK government so enrages Scots that they become evermore committed to indy, then so be it. That means they have given up on the UK and will leave anyway, evenetually. That doesn't mean Boris' decision is wrong. It is morally, economically and politically correct. He has to govern and make decisions on what is best for the whole of the UK.
There will be no indyref 2 until at least the next GE in 2024.
If you want to override the clearly expressed will of the Scottish population you are going to have to be prepared to do so by force. HYUFD is right on that. I don't disagree that Scottish independence will raise many economic challenges in the short run. That is why I used to be a Unionist, I thought it wasn't worth it. But Brexit has changed the calculus - Scotland is being taken in a direction its people have explicitly rejected, with absolutely no consideration given to its interests. The Union has become an unbalanced, toxic, abusive relationship. It is worth absorbing that short term pain to escape that.
Given Sturgeon is saying she will not hold an indyref2 without Westminster consent even if the SNP win a majority in May Boris may not even need to go as far as Rajoy did with Catalonia in 2017 in order to stick to his line that he will not grant the Scots a legal independence referendum.
Then the divisions would start to emerge between the SNP hardliners and those around Sturgeon
Dare I suggest that references to Catalonia 2017, in the context of Scotland, are less than helpful to the Unionist cause.
HYUFD likes to think such references are a thumping contribution to the debate.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Oh man, don't get me started on the "grown in a Dutch greenhouse" tomatoes to which Waitrose seem to be addicted. They're tasteless and awful (and were in stock this morning at the Finchley Road Waitrose). I don't understand why supermarkets are importing greenhouse grown tomatoes from Europe at all. In the summer we get amazing tomatoes from Spain, Portugal and Italy, I fully understand importing them during the summer but winter imports make no sense, one greenhouse tomato is basically the same as another.
Egyptian Strawberry's are the worst for zero taste. Far better to go for frozen fruit that is out of season.
Yeah, or don't buy it at all. I like strawberries in season. Out of season they're universally crap. I never understand people who buy them in November and then moan that they're sour or just tasteless.
Thought I was the only one.
Out of interest, how are you with cherries? I start buying them when the spanish crop becomes available in late spring and then pig the english variety during their short season. Then I don't touch them until next spring.
American cherries are the worst - the size of plums and the flavour of water.
My wife is from Basel so cherries are a bit of a religion in our place. We usually have loads in the freezer and then get them directly from her uncle when they're in season.
Just been to Lidl to get our shopping. My God! The fruit and veg! East Germany in its heyday had nothing on this. Plenty of carrots, decent supply of broccoli and avocadoes, a few turnips and a few bags of apples and that literally is it. No salad items, no fruit of any kind except those apples, remarkably no potatoes or onions.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
It was similar for me in Morrisons on New Year's Day but the items available were a bit different. Plenty of potatoes (but not Maris Piper) and plenty of onions but no carrots, parsnips or bagged salads. Same story in the Aldi nearby.
No problem at either Waitrose or Morrisons for us this morning. Both fully stocked. Only trouble is, as is typical for this time of year, it was almost all imported as far as fruit goes. This is why I have a weekly order for English tomatoes from IoW instead.
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Oh man, don't get me started on the "grown in a Dutch greenhouse" tomatoes to which Waitrose seem to be addicted. They're tasteless and awful (and were in stock this morning at the Finchley Road Waitrose). I don't understand why supermarkets are importing greenhouse grown tomatoes from Europe at all. In the summer we get amazing tomatoes from Spain, Portugal and Italy, I fully understand importing them during the summer but winter imports make no sense, one greenhouse tomato is basically the same as another.
You shop in the Finchley Road Waitrose? How many hours do you allow for parking?
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"Critical Care Bed Capacity and Urgent Operations Cancelled
Due to the coronavirus illness (COVID-19) and the need to release capacity across the NHS to support the response, we are pausing the collection and publication of these and some of our official statistics."
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/critical-care-capacity/
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
So popped into the Sainsburys Local next door that no-one goes to because the prices are 50% higher. A little better but even there most of the produce items are out of stock.
In evidence that boys never grow up, my brother sent me this for Christmas.
The only real downside is that there will likely be a very significant drop off in antibody levels during the extended gap before the booster. But the cost benefit analysis is definitely in favour of getting as many jabbed as possible when infection levels are so high.
I rang a friend who had also had her first vaccine, and we began to plan for a dinner together at the end of January. I let my mind conjure visions of a restaurant table, a tempting menu, a glass of wine. Might our old ways of life be within reach?
But now, like many of the million people who have already had their first dose of Pfizer’s vaccine, I am in limbo. I’ve heard nothing from my GP or my clinic, and have no idea whether my life will go back to normal at the end of this month, or not until the end of March.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9105299/DAME-JOAN-BAKEWELL-vaccine-U-turn-left-oldies-limbo.html#comments
I have no idea whether you are talking bollox or not but you do so with such panache that I look forward to reading more in future.
Carry on, soldier.
There was no question in their minds that this was the right thing to do.
Firstly the exemptions actually cover all of the Pulse fishing going on even before the ban. They simply allowed the Dutch fishermen to reclassify their Pulse fishing as Scientific Research al la Japanese whaling.
The UK comment is tenuous at best as the pulse fishing concerned was being done by Dutch owned vessels using UK quotas. One of the great failings of the CFP system and successive UK Governments combined.
France has not banned its own fishermen from using pulse fishing. It has simply banned the use of pulse fishing by anyone inside the French 12 mile limit. This is the limit of its ability to control anything under CFP.
Nor will this change once the updated EU ban comes into effect in July. There will still be exemptions for 'scientific' fishing by Dutch boats and EU countries will still only be able to ban pulse fishing within their 12 mile limit whilst the UK will be able - should it choose - to ban it within all its controlled waters.
Next I would like to see them extend that ban to all Super trawlers.
Nice, straight lines on the splinter camo, masking tape or steady hand?
Blair is correct, although any moderately intelligent politician would have realised this.
But, our political class as a whole cannot do arithmetic. And it seems the European political class can't, as well.
Blair is having a better pandemic than the PM, the FMs and the LotO.
I would like to think that we did but given our track record so far I doubt we bothered.
Tesco, Asda or Morrisons ?
Same goes for the ingredients of mulled wine. I can't find star anise within a mile of my flat.
Luckily I have a small supply, my thermos is now full of a piping hot brew, and I am off to Richmond to drink it with a friend.
Later, PB
Oh, but as an aside, the Waitrose at Newark is really shit. It has had ongoing problems with its freezers since the spring and still hasn't got them fixed.
Hopefully short term but those lorries do need to start queueing at Dover.
The somewhat messy AZN trials also seemed to bear out the greater efficacy of the longer gap between shots for their vaccine. Though as pointed out, it’s hard to do such stuff both quickly and well, so the data is less than conclusive.
We're not. Not even close.
So I refer you to my prediction no. 1 - https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/12/29/cyclefree-gives-her-predictions-for-2021/.
Thanks for the article @Dura_Ace.
Why did he not give the idea to SKS?
It would have benefitted both SKS and the reception of the idea.
Given the delayed availability of vaccines for large parts of the world, it will also act as a large scale field trial for delivery of the AZN vaccine for less well provided countries.
etc
Maybe I have missed something here?
On the plus side I am getting an Organic Cucumber instead of the cheaper one.
But yeah its a Lidl issue!
My only exception to seasonal buying is tomatoes as I am kind of addicted to them and use them as part of my weight loss programme. But even there if I can't buy British I don't bother.
When I was about 12, I designed my own aircraft about 18" long and constructed it with balsa wood and that glue, plus a semitransparent paper over the wings which you doped to make it contract and stiffen. I painted it in camouflague colours.
When I finally launched it from my bedroom window, it crashlanded on the path beneath and splintered. My father laughed. The things you suddenly remember!
Now its a Lidl, Aldi Asda issue
Any reports from elsewhere?
I suspect it is because the people drawing up the vaccine priority list were largely doctors or public health officials, and they daren't put themselves at highest priority.
We could just imagine the media uproar if a bunch of doctors decided they are top priority.
In fact, almost all the media have had a truly disgraceful pandemic. I am becoming a fan of China's law against "picking quarrels and making trouble".
https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18983111.chaos-bus-crashes-bingley-garden-amid-icy-conditions/
I didn't realise that Dura_Ace had a new job as a bus driver.
https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/01/aldi-pledges-to-spend-an-extra-3500000000-on-uk-food-and-drink-post-brexit-13834300/
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/video/2021/jan/03/england-cricket-team-disinfected-on-tour-arrival-in-sri-lanka-video
He is a keen photographer, so it is a G9
I was surprised recently to see that they now come covered in health warnings not to breathe them in.
https://bentleypriorymuseum.org.uk/bentley-priory-collection/11-group-crest/
Out of interest, how are you with cherries? I start buying them when the spanish crop becomes available in late spring and then pig the english variety during their short season. Then I don't touch them until next spring.
American cherries are the worst - the size of plums and the flavour of water.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/25/sept-15-1940-churchill-watches-as-the-last-of-the-raf-reserves-are-committed/
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1345726144159621120?s=20