Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
Very powerful? You mean less powerful. You would have to go centuries back to find England in a weaker position. And who says the Balkanisation would stop there?
No I mean what I said - you have to remember how large in terms of population and economy that England is - and would arguably be strengthened by losing Wales, certainly. But I agree and think a Federal solution would be preferable. However, if the people, say, of Scotland are determined that surely is their right. I presume you don't solely blame the EU for Brexit - I would not solely blame England for Scexit. In all these matters it takes two to tango.
How on Earth would England be strengthened by losing Wales? Utter madness.
Surely, Wales leaving to go it alone is the least likely of outcomes. NI - maybe, although we might end up with rUK offering refuge to a whole bunch of Unionists, if a united Ireland doesn't want a low-level civil war for decades. Scotland? As said previously, I'm in the "good luck to them" camp. But I think they'd need that luck. The EU might enjoy the spectacle of the UK unravelling, but I'm not sure that would translate into cutting Scotland much slack once loose from England. Of all the arguments about independence, the economic one is very weak. I still think it one which will keep independence tantalisingly out of reach in any new referendum. (Not that I think once is coming this side of another general election, irrespective of how Scotland votes this May.)
That economic case isn't there for Wales. And if, as I suspect, the coming couple of months sees the effective collapse of the NHS in Wales and it needs huge support from hospitals around England, then the wider case for independence will also be set back.
I continue to maintain that when indyref2 comes along, and it will not be before late 2022 or 2023, Scotland will vote to remain in the union
However, Wales simply does not have anywhere near a desire to leave the union and it seems it is mainly a hope from those bitter at Brexit and hope for the UK to break up in some perverse revenge motive
The fear is that Brexit makes the UK breakup more likely and that some of the more English nationalist Brexiteers aren’t too bothered about it.
It has increased the possibility of Scotland leaving but absolutely not Wales
However, there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge not only before the HOC and HOL passes a section 30 agreement and by then the UK will be in a very different place to today
I expect Scotland to remain mainly because of the economic benefits but also there are many emotional and family ties
Don't be so sure about Wales. As a lifelong Unionist I would now consider voting for an independent Wales. Yes, I know Wales is an economic desert and we would be well and truly up a gum tree, but if the principle of heart over head worked once (for Brexit) it can again.
Once the Pandora's box of Scottish independence is opened, a United Ireland will follow, however the DUP might protest ( that arrangement might not be arrived at without some severe unpleasantness). Why then, shouldn't Wales then join the party?
Like I said, heart over head.
I just cannot see Wales economically standing on its own let alone a great desire to do so
I suspect it would be fine Big_G, after a period of adjustment.
If Iceland can thrive in the middle of the north Atlantic with a population of 300k, I am sure Wales can with 3m people, located as it is
Precisely!
Wales already has most of the infrastructure it needs to be its own country. They already have a Parliament and don't need to build a new one.
It would be disruptive like Brexit, but it is entirely viable.
I spent time over the festive period watching the entire 26 episodes of the World at War. I had never done it previously. If you haven't, I suggest you do. It is a masterwork. It also provides some perspective. So many of the people interviewed were, like I am now, in their mid-50s. They were combatants, they were civilians, they were victims, they were perpetrators and they came from all the countries involved. I cannot imagine having to live with the weight of the memories they carried with them each and every day - the deep pain, the trauma, the suffering, the guilt. But they did; tens of millions of them. Our duty is to ensure that it never happens again; that nationalism never takes root as it did before. We must not run away from that.
War is not about nationalism.
Nationalism can be healthy, it typically is.
Do not confuse nationalism with jingoism.
You're wrong there Philip.
Nationalism is always bad news; patriotism is good for nothing (except promulgating wars).
Codswallop. You're projecting just because you don't like something. Nationalism is very good news much of the time.
By ‘much of the time’ do you mean that during the C20 nationalism hadn’t mired us in a world war 90% of the time.
Surely, that depends how well things go for Scotland? If it turns out that the SNP has been peddling empty rhetoric for decades and it is a hard, cold, lonely world out there, then I doubt the Welsh will go "Me too...."
If Scotland goes, Welsh Labour will be left with two options
1. To stay in a larger country (EnglandnWales) which is now overwhelmingly Tory.
2. To be in complete charge of a small country (Wales) which they will be able to run.
In the event of Independence, I believe the whole dynamic of politics will change in Wales. Plaid will become more relevant, both pre and post referendum. Labour will lose out, because they as usual will be late to the party, however the real losers will be the Welsh Tories whose irrelevance will be well and truly confirmed.
I agree that the dynamic of Welsh politics will change. Probably a good thing, as the present parties are in a rut.
My strong suspicion is that the more Llafur look at being stuck in a long-term marriage with people like Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the less and less they will like it.
Once Scotland has gone, the chance of a UK Labour Government is very low in the next few elections, IMO.
I agree.
Although I suspect the political dynamic in England will change over time too.
We, this side of Offa's Duke haven't the time to wait for that.
And I suspect an independent Wales would shortly rejoin the EU.
The advantages for small and poor countries to be in the EU are enormous. See Ireland.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
The thing that is really odd is that RP voted for Brexit from memory - but now he's as arch a Europhile extremist as Scott or williamglenn.
Having examined some of RP's posting, I think we might describe his views as volatile.
(My recollection like you is he had a fit about the Remain campaign, and voted Leave).
My EFTA / EEA position hasn't changed throughout. We were inevitably going to pushed to the extremities of the two-speed Europe because we were not part of the Euro / Schengen / Army etc. So better to step off of our own volition than be flung off. Given the choice of what we now have or continued EU membership I'd stay in the EU - but that wasn't the only option.
That we are shouting about free trade having just left the free trade area is laughable. You can trade freely with the EU without being a member. We have chosen not to.
Really don't understand your last paragraph. We have chosen to trade freely with the EU without being a member. Whether that proves to be a good idea or not only time will tell.
Actually we haven't and RP is absolutely right on this. We have chosen to trade freely in certain specific areas. Had we chosen the EFTA/EEA route it would have been far more comprehensive. The only difference between RP and myself is I would still have chosen this over staying in. In the end trade, as he mentions, is only one small part of the EU project and the rest of it negates value we get from membership.
But what significant differences are there between our zero tariff/zero quota but outside of the customs area deal . . . with the EFTA/EEA Single Market but outside of the customs area deal?
The main issues RP complains about: customs declarations, rules of origin etc - they apply to the EEA too don't they? What would be significantly different between the EFTA and our deal now?
Wales is a very different beast to Scotland. It's been part of the Kingdom of England (And successors) for the previous ~ 1000 years, and if you look back before that was never really completely unified - Deheubarth/Gwynedd being antecedents to annexation by England. It's got a few of it's own laws now, but they're a very recent (1990s !) construct and there's no natural legal heritage there in the same way Scotland has it's own fully formed legal system. Also economically I'd wager South Wales is more linked to Bristol and North Wales to the Northwest than each other. Politically it acts as a slightly more leftwing version of England and the nationalist party is confined to west Wales. I severely doubt it'll happen in my lifetime (I'm 39) whereas Scotland looks more likely than not.
Also, it is sometines more convenient to travel between parts of Wales via England.
Maybe the Federation of England and Wales should quietly leave the Union.
I will be interested to see Starmer's ideas on devolution, although I suspect it will be more about placating the Scots than creating a better system of governance for England and the UK as a whole.
Mr. Cwsc, I'm just making the point that, at the time, Wales was a patchwork of ever-shifting powerbases rather than a unitary kingdom the way England was.
For that matter, the south had long been in the hands of Norman (then English) Marcher lords.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
Very powerful? You mean less powerful. You would have to go centuries back to find England in a weaker position. And who says the Balkanisation would stop there?
No I mean what I said - you have to remember how large in terms of population and economy that England is - and would arguably be strengthened by losing Wales, certainly. But I agree and think a Federal solution would be preferable. However, if the people, say, of Scotland are determined that surely is their right. I presume you don't solely blame the EU for Brexit - I would not solely blame England for Scexit. In all these matters it takes two to tango.
How on Earth would England be strengthened by losing Wales? Utter madness.
Surely, Wales leaving to go it alone is the least likely of outcomes. NI - maybe, although we might end up with rUK offering refuge to a whole bunch of Unionists, if a united Ireland doesn't want a low-level civil war for decades. Scotland? As said previously, I'm in the "good luck to them" camp. But I think they'd need that luck. The EU might enjoy the spectacle of the UK unravelling, but I'm not sure that would translate into cutting Scotland much slack once loose from England. Of all the arguments about independence, the economic one is very weak. I still think it one which will keep independence tantalisingly out of reach in any new referendum. (Not that I think once is coming this side of another general election, irrespective of how Scotland votes this May.)
That economic case isn't there for Wales. And if, as I suspect, the coming couple of months sees the effective collapse of the NHS in Wales and it needs huge support from hospitals around England, then the wider case for independence will also be set back.
I continue to maintain that when indyref2 comes along, and it will not be before late 2022 or 2023, Scotland will vote to remain in the union
However, Wales simply does not have anywhere near a desire to leave the union and it seems it is mainly a hope from those bitter at Brexit and hope for the UK to break up in some perverse revenge motive
The fear is that Brexit makes the UK breakup more likely and that some of the more English nationalist Brexiteers aren’t too bothered about it.
It has increased the possibility of Scotland leaving but absolutely not Wales
However, there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge not only before the HOC and HOL passes a section 30 agreement and by then the UK will be in a very different place to today
I expect Scotland to remain mainly because of the economic benefits but also there are many emotional and family ties
Don't be so sure about Wales. As a lifelong Unionist I would now consider voting for an independent Wales. Yes, I know Wales is an economic desert and we would be well and truly up a gum tree, but if the principle of heart over head worked once (for Brexit) it can again.
Once the Pandora's box of Scottish independence is opened, a United Ireland will follow, however the DUP might protest ( that arrangement might not be arrived at without some severe unpleasantness). Why then, shouldn't Wales then join the party?
Like I said, heart over head.
I just cannot see Wales economically standing on its own let alone a great desire to do so
This time a year and a day ago, I would have agreed with you. I don't (on both your counts) now.
I spent time over the festive period watching the entire 26 episodes of the World at War. I had never done it previously. If you haven't, I suggest you do. It is a masterwork. It also provides some perspective. So many of the people interviewed were, like I am now, in their mid-50s. They were combatants, they were civilians, they were victims, they were perpetrators and they came from all the countries involved. I cannot imagine having to live with the weight of the memories they carried with them each and every day - the deep pain, the trauma, the suffering, the guilt. But they did; tens of millions of them. Our duty is to ensure that it never happens again; that nationalism never takes root as it did before. We must not run away from that.
War is not about nationalism.
Nationalism can be healthy, it typically is.
Do not confuse nationalism with jingoism.
For a man who wrote so eloquently, and with assured authority about Trump's brand of nationalism during the US Election, you don't half write some b******* when it comes to Johnsonian Britain.
Because Trumpism is not nationalism. They are two very different things.
Trumpism is flag waving extreme patriotism mixed with xenophobia, racism, ignorance and a denial of science. It has nothing to do with nationalism.
America First is the very distilled essence of nationalism.
An astute observation and reading this thread you can see the clear goal that's in the sights of the lunatic fringe of Brexitdom.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
The thing that is really odd is that RP voted for Brexit from memory - but now he's as arch a Europhile extremist as Scott or williamglenn.
Having examined some of RP's posting, I think we might describe his views as volatile.
(My recollection like you is he had a fit about the Remain campaign, and voted Leave).
My EFTA / EEA position hasn't changed throughout. We were inevitably going to pushed to the extremities of the two-speed Europe because we were not part of the Euro / Schengen / Army etc. So better to step off of our own volition than be flung off. Given the choice of what we now have or continued EU membership I'd stay in the EU - but that wasn't the only option.
That we are shouting about free trade having just left the free trade area is laughable. You can trade freely with the EU without being a member. We have chosen not to.
Really don't understand your last paragraph. We have chosen to trade freely with the EU without being a member. Whether that proves to be a good idea or not only time will tell.
Actually we haven't and RP is absolutely right on this. We have chosen to trade freely in certain specific areas. Had we chosen the EFTA/EEA route it would have been far more comprehensive. The only difference between RP and myself is I would still have chosen this over staying in. In the end trade, as he mentions, is only one small part of the EU project and the rest of it negates value we get from membership.
I accept that if we had gone down the EFTA/EEA route we would have freer trade, particularly in services. But we would be more tied to EU law than I wanted us to be. Its a trade off and I am not unhappy about where we have ended up although I will be a lot happier once we have agreed mutual recognition of regulation in services.
Thats good news although it merely puts us in the same position (as drivers) we were in when we were in the EU.
So basically we're in the same position we were but with the bonus of extra red tape and the new 'freedom' to follow rules we have no say over. What a triumph!
I spent time over the festive period watching the entire 26 episodes of the World at War. I had never done it previously. If you haven't, I suggest you do. It is a masterwork. It also provides some perspective. So many of the people interviewed were, like I am now, in their mid-50s. They were combatants, they were civilians, they were victims, they were perpetrators and they came from all the countries involved. I cannot imagine having to live with the weight of the memories they carried with them each and every day - the deep pain, the trauma, the suffering, the guilt. But they did; tens of millions of them. Our duty is to ensure that it never happens again; that nationalism never takes root as it did before. We must not run away from that.
War is not about nationalism.
Nationalism can be healthy, it typically is.
Do not confuse nationalism with jingoism.
You're wrong there Philip.
Nationalism is always bad news; patriotism is good for nothing (except promulgating wars).
Codswallop. You're projecting just because you don't like something. Nationalism is very good news much of the time.
By ‘much of the time’ do you mean that during the C20 nationalism hadn’t mired us in a world war 90% of the time.
Nationalism didn't mire us in world wars.
Oh my. I suspect we’re going to have to agree to disagree there.
Changing the subject to a more pressing matter: I think you said yesterday that you believe 15 AZ vaccines have been produced but not yet packaged (IIRC).
That would be fantastic news if true. Do you have a source for that info? Thanks
A binding second Independence Referendum is Ultra Vires re- Holyrood - and campaign pledges made by parties seeking election to it are neither here nor there.
Which is almost certainly why the manifesto pledge will be to ask for a Section 30 order to hold a second referendum, rather than just stating that a second referendum will be held.
It better not just be that they will seek a section 30 or there will be a rammy
I spent time over the festive period watching the entire 26 episodes of the World at War. I had never done it previously. If you haven't, I suggest you do. It is a masterwork. It also provides some perspective. So many of the people interviewed were, like I am now, in their mid-50s. They were combatants, they were civilians, they were victims, they were perpetrators and they came from all the countries involved. I cannot imagine having to live with the weight of the memories they carried with them each and every day - the deep pain, the trauma, the suffering, the guilt. But they did; tens of millions of them. Our duty is to ensure that it never happens again; that nationalism never takes root as it did before. We must not run away from that.
War is not about nationalism.
Nationalism can be healthy, it typically is.
Do not confuse nationalism with jingoism.
You're wrong there Philip.
Nationalism is always bad news; patriotism is good for nothing (except promulgating wars).
Codswallop. You're projecting just because you don't like something. Nationalism is very good news much of the time.
Give me one positive example...
...to balance against, say, two World Wars.
Nationalism is a belief that your own country should set its own rules. It is not a belief in conquering other nations.
Nationalism didn't cause the two World Wars, but arguably the rise of nationalism (as well as the rise of nuclear weaponry) did prevent a third.
Nationalism has led to countless countries going independent and an end to the era of Empires. It was a belief in Empires not Nationalism that fuelled the two world wars, especially the first. Nationalism is the antithesis of Empires and World Wars.
Gandhi was a nationalist. How did Gandhi's nationalism fuel world wars?
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
The thing that is really odd is that RP voted for Brexit from memory - but now he's as arch a Europhile extremist as Scott or williamglenn.
Having examined some of RP's posting, I think we might describe his views as volatile.
(My recollection like you is he had a fit about the Remain campaign, and voted Leave).
My EFTA / EEA position hasn't changed throughout. We were inevitably going to pushed to the extremities of the two-speed Europe because we were not part of the Euro / Schengen / Army etc. So better to step off of our own volition than be flung off. Given the choice of what we now have or continued EU membership I'd stay in the EU - but that wasn't the only option.
That we are shouting about free trade having just left the free trade area is laughable. You can trade freely with the EU without being a member. We have chosen not to.
Really don't understand your last paragraph. We have chosen to trade freely with the EU without being a member. Whether that proves to be a good idea or not only time will tell.
No we haven't. Free trade is exactly that. We have stopped trading freely and have chosen to impose customs and standards barriers. Following a 26 step process to export shellfish is not free trade, not when the process was a handful of steps until yesterday.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
The thing that is really odd is that RP voted for Brexit from memory - but now he's as arch a Europhile extremist as Scott or williamglenn.
Having examined some of RP's posting, I think we might describe his views as volatile.
(My recollection like you is he had a fit about the Remain campaign, and voted Leave).
My EFTA / EEA position hasn't changed throughout. We were inevitably going to pushed to the extremities of the two-speed Europe because we were not part of the Euro / Schengen / Army etc. So better to step off of our own volition than be flung off. Given the choice of what we now have or continued EU membership I'd stay in the EU - but that wasn't the only option.
That we are shouting about free trade having just left the free trade area is laughable. You can trade freely with the EU without being a member. We have chosen not to.
Really don't understand your last paragraph. We have chosen to trade freely with the EU without being a member. Whether that proves to be a good idea or not only time will tell.
No we haven't. Free trade is exactly that. We have stopped trading freely and have chosen to impose customs and standards barriers. Following a 26 step process to export shellfish is not free trade, not when the process was a handful of steps until yesterday.
In goods we have the freest trade we could have without being members. No tariffs, no quotas, limited rules of origin and a LPF of sorts. Of course that trade was fractionally freer when we were members but that is not what you said.
Precisely.
Sorry Mr Tusk but we have 100% picked the cherries that we wanted.
If we did we did it with a blindfold on. Services should have been the first cherry picked and it never was. May's deal was better in that respect and it is important that this is sorted out for us in the next few months. Yesterday the FCA basically created a breathing space by which financial services in London for the EU will effectively be subject to a kind of dual regulation for the next 3 months. We need it sorted out by the end of that period.
Out of interest- in what way is Scotland economically viable and Wales not?
Scotland gets a smaller per capita net fiscal transfer from London and the SE than Wales or NI, or indeed most other English regions. It is also larger and has better internal transport links than Wales does and has an entirely separate legal and education system.
It is certainly a horror travelling north to south within Wales. Its first priority as a sovereign nation would be an all-weather cross-country motorway. Which would be hellish expensive.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
The thing that is really odd is that RP voted for Brexit from memory - but now he's as arch a Europhile extremist as Scott or williamglenn.
Having examined some of RP's posting, I think we might describe his views as volatile.
(My recollection like you is he had a fit about the Remain campaign, and voted Leave).
My EFTA / EEA position hasn't changed throughout. We were inevitably going to pushed to the extremities of the two-speed Europe because we were not part of the Euro / Schengen / Army etc. So better to step off of our own volition than be flung off. Given the choice of what we now have or continued EU membership I'd stay in the EU - but that wasn't the only option.
That we are shouting about free trade having just left the free trade area is laughable. You can trade freely with the EU without being a member. We have chosen not to.
Really don't understand your last paragraph. We have chosen to trade freely with the EU without being a member. Whether that proves to be a good idea or not only time will tell.
Actually we haven't and RP is absolutely right on this. We have chosen to trade freely in certain specific areas. Had we chosen the EFTA/EEA route it would have been far more comprehensive. The only difference between RP and myself is I would still have chosen this over staying in. In the end trade, as he mentions, is only one small part of the EU project and the rest of it negates value we get from membership.
There is a basic lack of understanding about how trade practically works which the government have exploited. Going from being able to freely import and export without paperwork to being able to import and export only if the correct paperwork is filed correctly and the requisite fees are paid is NOT choosing to trade freely, it is choosing to stop trading freely.
Tariffs and Quotas would have been bad, so its good that we have avoided them. But the PM is either lying to the Commons or is so dumb that he doesn't understand the difference when he says no quotas/tariffs means free trade.
What is depressing about the whole issue is that footbalification means the facts are in dispute. Paperwork and fees are an additional cost/time burden being added to business. That one side are trying to argue they are not or even that they don't really exist is really sad.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
Very powerful? You mean less powerful. You would have to go centuries back to find England in a weaker position. And who says the Balkanisation would stop there?
No I mean what I said - you have to remember how large in terms of population and economy that England is - and would arguably be strengthened by losing Wales, certainly. But I agree and think a Federal solution would be preferable. However, if the people, say, of Scotland are determined that surely is their right. I presume you don't solely blame the EU for Brexit - I would not solely blame England for Scexit. In all these matters it takes two to tango.
How on Earth would England be strengthened by losing Wales? Utter madness.
Surely, Wales leaving to go it alone is the least likely of outcomes. NI - maybe, although we might end up with rUK offering refuge to a whole bunch of Unionists, if a united Ireland doesn't want a low-level civil war for decades. Scotland? As said previously, I'm in the "good luck to them" camp. But I think they'd need that luck. The EU might enjoy the spectacle of the UK unravelling, but I'm not sure that would translate into cutting Scotland much slack once loose from England. Of all the arguments about independence, the economic one is very weak. I still think it one which will keep independence tantalisingly out of reach in any new referendum. (Not that I think once is coming this side of another general election, irrespective of how Scotland votes this May.)
That economic case isn't there for Wales. And if, as I suspect, the coming couple of months sees the effective collapse of the NHS in Wales and it needs huge support from hospitals around England, then the wider case for independence will also be set back.
I continue to maintain that when indyref2 comes along, and it will not be before late 2022 or 2023, Scotland will vote to remain in the union
However, Wales simply does not have anywhere near a desire to leave the union and it seems it is mainly a hope from those bitter at Brexit and hope for the UK to break up in some perverse revenge motive
The fear is that Brexit makes the UK breakup more likely and that some of the more English nationalist Brexiteers aren’t too bothered about it.
It has increased the possibility of Scotland leaving but absolutely not Wales
However, there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge not only before the HOC and HOL passes a section 30 agreement and by then the UK will be in a very different place to today
I expect Scotland to remain mainly because of the economic benefits but also there are many emotional and family ties
Don't be so sure about Wales. As a lifelong Unionist I would now consider voting for an independent Wales. Yes, I know Wales is an economic desert and we would be well and truly up a gum tree, but if the principle of heart over head worked once (for Brexit) it can again.
Once the Pandora's box of Scottish independence is opened, a United Ireland will follow, however the DUP might protest ( that arrangement might not be arrived at without some severe unpleasantness). Why then, shouldn't Wales then join the party?
Like I said, heart over head.
I just cannot see Wales economically standing on its own let alone a great desire to do so
I suspect it would be fine Big_G, after a period of adjustment.
If Iceland can thrive in the middle of the north Atlantic with a population of 300k, I am sure Wales can with 3m people, located as it is
Precisely!
Wales already has most of the infrastructure it needs to be its own country. They already have a Parliament and don't need to build a new one.
It would be disruptive like Brexit, but it is entirely viable.
Have you ever tried to drive from Llandudno to Cardiff or even go by train
We in the North see ourselves much closer to Liverpool, Manchester and Chester than Cardiff which is remote and governs for South Wales only in most North Walians eyes
I spent time over the festive period watching the entire 26 episodes of the World at War. I had never done it previously. If you haven't, I suggest you do. It is a masterwork. It also provides some perspective. So many of the people interviewed were, like I am now, in their mid-50s. They were combatants, they were civilians, they were victims, they were perpetrators and they came from all the countries involved. I cannot imagine having to live with the weight of the memories they carried with them each and every day - the deep pain, the trauma, the suffering, the guilt. But they did; tens of millions of them. Our duty is to ensure that it never happens again; that nationalism never takes root as it did before. We must not run away from that.
War is not about nationalism.
Nationalism can be healthy, it typically is.
Do not confuse nationalism with jingoism.
You're wrong there Philip.
Nationalism is always bad news; patriotism is good for nothing (except promulgating wars).
Codswallop. You're projecting just because you don't like something. Nationalism is very good news much of the time.
By ‘much of the time’ do you mean that during the C20 nationalism hadn’t mired us in a world war 90% of the time.
Nationalism didn't mire us in world wars.
What then caused WW1 if not nationalism?
Empires not nationalism.
Nationalism dissolved and broke up empires.
Empires are about expanding and conquering and uniting the world in your banner.
Nationalism in this sense (like Gandhi and SNP and Brexit) is about shrinking and smaller nations controlling themselves not others.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
No, I don't think so. If people freely choose self determination, I wish them well. The days we suppress independence movements by force of arms should be long since consigned to the history books.
Theses nationalist independence movements are not benign, they divide people and foster conflict. We have nothing to gain from borders being erected.
What is not benign is the colonial despots thinking it is still the empire days trying to not allow democratic votes in SOVEREIGN countries.
Many of these people think that they are 'free' and have 'woken up' and that others are 'sheeple'. It's what happens when you mix post-1960s suspicion of institutions, with levels of information, and levels of public discourse and debate, which are in fact increasingly much lower than during the late 1960s and 1970s.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
No, I don't think so. If people freely choose self determination, I wish them well. The days we suppress independence movements by force of arms should be long since consigned to the history books.
Theses nationalist independence movements are not benign, they divide people and foster conflict. We have nothing to gain from borders being erected.
What is not benign is the colonial despots thinking it is still the empire days trying to not allow democratic votes in SOVEREIGN countries.
What is not benign is colonialism and insisting that you are not sovereign.
If Scotland was sovereign there'd be no debate and no dispute. If a Section 30 order is denied then all that does is prove that Scotland isn't sovereign - and why it should be.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
The thing that is really odd is that RP voted for Brexit from memory - but now he's as arch a Europhile extremist as Scott or williamglenn.
Having examined some of RP's posting, I think we might describe his views as volatile.
(My recollection like you is he had a fit about the Remain campaign, and voted Leave).
My EFTA / EEA position hasn't changed throughout. We were inevitably going to pushed to the extremities of the two-speed Europe because we were not part of the Euro / Schengen / Army etc. So better to step off of our own volition than be flung off. Given the choice of what we now have or continued EU membership I'd stay in the EU - but that wasn't the only option.
That we are shouting about free trade having just left the free trade area is laughable. You can trade freely with the EU without being a member. We have chosen not to.
Really don't understand your last paragraph. We have chosen to trade freely with the EU without being a member. Whether that proves to be a good idea or not only time will tell.
Actually we haven't and RP is absolutely right on this. We have chosen to trade freely in certain specific areas. Had we chosen the EFTA/EEA route it would have been far more comprehensive. The only difference between RP and myself is I would still have chosen this over staying in. In the end trade, as he mentions, is only one small part of the EU project and the rest of it negates value we get from membership.
There is a basic lack of understanding about how trade practically works which the government have exploited. Going from being able to freely import and export without paperwork to being able to import and export only if the correct paperwork is filed correctly and the requisite fees are paid is NOT choosing to trade freely, it is choosing to stop trading freely.
Tariffs and Quotas would have been bad, so its good that we have avoided them. But the PM is either lying to the Commons or is so dumb that he doesn't understand the difference when he says no quotas/tariffs means free trade.
What is depressing about the whole issue is that footbalification means the facts are in dispute. Paperwork and fees are an additional cost/time burden being added to business. That one side are trying to argue they are not or even that they don't really exist is really sad.
Paperwork is required under the EFTA and EEA too though.
Wales is a very different beast to Scotland. It's been part of the Kingdom of England (And successors) for the previous ~ 1000 years, and if you look back before that was never really completely unified - Deheubarth/Gwynedd being antecedents to annexation by England. It's got a few of it's own laws now, but they're a very recent (1990s !) construct and there's no natural legal heritage there in the same way Scotland has it's own fully formed legal system. Also economically I'd wager South Wales is more linked to Bristol and North Wales to the Northwest than each other. Politically it acts as a slightly more leftwing version of England and the nationalist party is confined to west Wales. I severely doubt it'll happen in my lifetime (I'm 39) whereas Scotland looks more likely than not.
Exactly and Wales voted Leave just like England, it can have no complaints.
I oppose Scottish independence but at least Sturgeon can say she has an alternative to the UK, the EU, a Wales outside both the UK and the EU would not be viable
This is a useful header because of the final para on Scotland. Philip frames the decision for Johnson (assuming the SNP get that Holyrood victory) as one between what is good for the country and what is good for him - for Johnson, I mean, not Philip, although it can be hard to tell the difference sometimes - the options being respectively granting and denying Sindy2. If we accept that framing, and I think I probably do, it becomes possible to predict in advance to around a 99.95% level of confidence what the outcome will be.
Yep. No Ref. Which makes the following 2 bets good value at current odds -
(i) Back no Sindy2 before 2025 at 2.1 (ii) Lay Sindy2 in 2022 at 4.8
I prefer (ii).
Yes we Tories will block indyref2 whatever happens at Holyrood next year though I think now No Deal is avoided the chances of an SNP majority next year are significantly reduced
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
All change brings danger and I would much prefer a Federal solution to the divisions which are there. I'm not sure that polling shows that anger is a feature of the english attitude to the break-up of the UK so much as resignation tinged with some sadness. I do witness a fair bit of anger and petulance from some our Scottish posters on here - I doubt if even that reflects accurately the popular mood in Scotland. Even the frecent polling suggests they are pretty divided. I think there is much anger in all of the UK about the events of the past 5 years. Defeat of an idea is a bitter pill to swallow. Nursing the anger is I'm sure not the way forward.
Maybe if you were under the jackboot you might think differently. Easy to pontificate when you are the bully doing the beating up. All the whining about how they are now a sovereign nation , independent etc and yet they want to keep Scotland under the yoke, on your bike.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
Very powerful? You mean less powerful. You would have to go centuries back to find England in a weaker position. And who says the Balkanisation would stop there?
No I mean what I said - you have to remember how large in terms of population and economy that England is - and would arguably be strengthened by losing Wales, certainly. But I agree and think a Federal solution would be preferable. However, if the people, say, of Scotland are determined that surely is their right. I presume you don't solely blame the EU for Brexit - I would not solely blame England for Scexit. In all these matters it takes two to tango.
How on Earth would England be strengthened by losing Wales? Utter madness.
Surely, Wales leaving to go it alone is the least likely of outcomes. NI - maybe, although we might end up with rUK offering refuge to a whole bunch of Unionists, if a united Ireland doesn't want a low-level civil war for decades. Scotland? As said previously, I'm in the "good luck to them" camp. But I think they'd need that luck. The EU might enjoy the spectacle of the UK unravelling, but I'm not sure that would translate into cutting Scotland much slack once loose from England. Of all the arguments about independence, the economic one is very weak. I still think it one which will keep independence tantalisingly out of reach in any new referendum. (Not that I think once is coming this side of another general election, irrespective of how Scotland votes this May.)
That economic case isn't there for Wales. And if, as I suspect, the coming couple of months sees the effective collapse of the NHS in Wales and it needs huge support from hospitals around England, then the wider case for independence will also be set back.
I continue to maintain that when indyref2 comes along, and it will not be before late 2022 or 2023, Scotland will vote to remain in the union
However, Wales simply does not have anywhere near a desire to leave the union and it seems it is mainly a hope from those bitter at Brexit and hope for the UK to break up in some perverse revenge motive
The fear is that Brexit makes the UK breakup more likely and that some of the more English nationalist Brexiteers aren’t too bothered about it.
It has increased the possibility of Scotland leaving but absolutely not Wales
However, there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge not only before the HOC and HOL passes a section 30 agreement and by then the UK will be in a very different place to today
I expect Scotland to remain mainly because of the economic benefits but also there are many emotional and family ties
Don't be so sure about Wales. As a lifelong Unionist I would now consider voting for an independent Wales. Yes, I know Wales is an economic desert and we would be well and truly up a gum tree, but if the principle of heart over head worked once (for Brexit) it can again.
Once the Pandora's box of Scottish independence is opened, a United Ireland will follow, however the DUP might protest ( that arrangement might not be arrived at without some severe unpleasantness). Why then, shouldn't Wales then join the party?
Like I said, heart over head.
I just cannot see Wales economically standing on its own let alone a great desire to do so
I suspect it would be fine Big_G, after a period of adjustment.
If Iceland can thrive in the middle of the north Atlantic with a population of 300k, I am sure Wales can with 3m people, located as it is
Precisely!
Wales already has most of the infrastructure it needs to be its own country. They already have a Parliament and don't need to build a new one.
It would be disruptive like Brexit, but it is entirely viable.
Have you ever tried to drive from Llandudno to Cardiff or even go by train
We in the North see ourselves much closer to Liverpool, Manchester and Chester than Cardiff which is remote and governs for South Wales only in most North Walians eyes
Just think of all that European Social Fund money to build the South to North motorway.
If we are ever in a position to spend European money again in Wales, I hope it would be for major infrastructure projects like rail and road links, rather than cobblestone paving in Cemaes Bay or cycle paths from Llanelli Docks to Pembrey Country Park.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
The thing that is really odd is that RP voted for Brexit from memory - but now he's as arch a Europhile extremist as Scott or williamglenn.
Having examined some of RP's posting, I think we might describe his views as volatile.
(My recollection like you is he had a fit about the Remain campaign, and voted Leave).
My EFTA / EEA position hasn't changed throughout. We were inevitably going to pushed to the extremities of the two-speed Europe because we were not part of the Euro / Schengen / Army etc. So better to step off of our own volition than be flung off. Given the choice of what we now have or continued EU membership I'd stay in the EU - but that wasn't the only option.
That we are shouting about free trade having just left the free trade area is laughable. You can trade freely with the EU without being a member. We have chosen not to.
Really don't understand your last paragraph. We have chosen to trade freely with the EU without being a member. Whether that proves to be a good idea or not only time will tell.
Actually we haven't and RP is absolutely right on this. We have chosen to trade freely in certain specific areas. Had we chosen the EFTA/EEA route it would have been far more comprehensive. The only difference between RP and myself is I would still have chosen this over staying in. In the end trade, as he mentions, is only one small part of the EU project and the rest of it negates value we get from membership.
But what significant differences are there between our zero tariff/zero quota but outside of the customs area deal . . . with the EFTA/EEA Single Market but outside of the customs area deal?
The main issues RP complains about: customs declarations, rules of origin etc - they apply to the EEA too don't they? What would be significantly different between the EFTA and our deal now?
We have resolved this for Northern Ireland and your favourite PM Mrs May resolved it for the entire UK. The UK had no choice but to remain in a customs union and the EEA because of the GFA. That it would create a unique arrangement for the UK of combining EEA and CU membership outside the EU isn't an objection as we have just created a different unique arrangement.
I have to laugh at the stupidity of it. We have ended up with this omnishambles deal where we have the right to sign trade deals with elsewhere and change our standards, but only at the cost of tariffs and quotas. We have the right to have babies even though we can't have babies. Or, we could have agreed with the EU the exact same principle that isn't practical without imposing trade barriers and sinking our financial services sector.
Changing the subject to a more pressing matter: I think you said yesterday that you believe 15 AZ vaccines have been produced but not yet packaged (IIRC).
That would be fantastic news if true. Do you have a source for that info? Thanks
Fraser Nelson:
"The Oxford vaccine needs to spend 20 days in sterilisation, so there’s a waiting game – which is why just 530,000 of the promised 4 million doses will be ready by Monday."
Surely, that depends how well things go for Scotland? If it turns out that the SNP has been peddling empty rhetoric for decades and it is a hard, cold, lonely world out there, then I doubt the Welsh will go "Me too...."
If Scotland goes, Welsh Labour will be left with two options
1. To stay in a larger country (EnglandnWales) which is now overwhelmingly Tory.
2. To be in complete charge of a small country (Wales) which they will be able to run.
In the event of Independence, I believe the whole dynamic of politics will change in Wales. Plaid will become more relevant, both pre and post referendum. Labour will lose out, because they as usual will be late to the party, however the real losers will be the Welsh Tories whose irrelevance will be well and truly confirmed.
Utter rubbish, the Tories got 36% of the vote in Wales last year, the highest Tory voteshare in Wales since before World War 2 and the Tories won 14 MPs, the highest number of Welsh Tory MPs since 1983
Surely, that depends how well things go for Scotland? If it turns out that the SNP has been peddling empty rhetoric for decades and it is a hard, cold, lonely world out there, then I doubt the Welsh will go "Me too...."
If Scotland goes, Welsh Labour will be left with two options
1. To stay in a larger country (EnglandnWales) which is now overwhelmingly Tory.
2. To be in complete charge of a small country (Wales) which they will be able to run.
Will Labour have learnt nothing from their 1,000 year rule over a devolved Scotland? Cuz that went well, huh?
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
No, I don't think so. If people freely choose self determination, I wish them well. The days we suppress independence movements by force of arms should be long since consigned to the history books.
Theses nationalist independence movements are not benign, they divide people and foster conflict. We have nothing to gain from borders being erected.
What is not benign is the colonial despots thinking it is still the empire days trying to not allow democratic votes in SOVEREIGN countries.
What is not benign is colonialism and insisting that you are not sovereign.
If Scotland was sovereign there'd be no debate and no dispute. If a Section 30 order is denied then all that does is prove that Scotland isn't sovereign - and why it should be.
Like I've said before - there is no way Johnson would grant a section 30. He is very much for himself and he won't be the PM to have lost a union.
He'll be gambling on an SNP split in Scotland as a result of them not agreeing on next steps.
Changing the subject to a more pressing matter: I think you said yesterday that you believe 15 AZ vaccines have been produced but not yet packaged (IIRC).
That would be fantastic news if true. Do you have a source for that info? Thanks
Well-placed sources said almost a million doses will be “on the shelf” in time for the roll out next week and a further two million made available by the middle of January.
On Wednesday Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, had said 530,000 doses had been cleared for release but another 407,000 will now be ready for use by this Monday.
[snip]
A further three million Oxford doses have been stored in vials for immediate use once given safety clearance with a further 15 million waiting for the “fill and finish” stage - where they are put into glass vials. That process takes just days.
I'm not sure from that if the 15 million are including the 3 million + 1 million or as well as the 4 million. If they're as well as the 4 million then that means 19 million are already produced so far in total.
I spent time over the festive period watching the entire 26 episodes of the World at War. I had never done it previously. If you haven't, I suggest you do. It is a masterwork. It also provides some perspective. So many of the people interviewed were, like I am now, in their mid-50s. They were combatants, they were civilians, they were victims, they were perpetrators and they came from all the countries involved. I cannot imagine having to live with the weight of the memories they carried with them each and every day - the deep pain, the trauma, the suffering, the guilt. But they did; tens of millions of them. Our duty is to ensure that it never happens again; that nationalism never takes root as it did before. We must not run away from that.
The boxed set of the World At War was one of my Christmas presents. Meanwhile I am working my way through Schitt's Creek; it makes me laugh and I could do with a laugh at the moment.
I am working my way through Ronnie O Sullivan's three novels about Soho snooker/gangster life . Its not exactly Booker Prize material but i still feel incredulous he has actually written them. I love Ronnie for his snooker and individualism around snooker (his 147 in 5 mins and his fastest century break are out of this world -both on youtube) and I know he is also a good county standard long distance runner but writer of novels? They are not bad to read especially if you like the West End of London with a bit of low life action but did he really write them? Fair play if he did.
Ronnie O'Sullivan "wrote" them alongside Emlyn Rees. From the (or a) publisher: Pan Macmillan has poached Ronnie "The Rocket" O’Sullivan after his debut, Framed, published last year with Orion. Pan Macmillan will publish his sequel, Double Kiss, in November.
The follow-up will take readers back to the summer of Euro ‘96 and gangland Soho, drawing on the five-time world snooker champion's own personal experiences of Soho, his parents’ time in prison and of the hedonistic ‘90s club scene.
Like Framed, Double Kiss will again follow protagonist Frankie James "struggling to stay out of trouble". But while Framed was about the "dog-eat-dog underworld" of 1980s Soho, its sequel will be set in the '90s.
Victoria Hughes-Williams, senior commissioning editor, acquired world rights (excluding China) in a two-book deal, from Jonny Geller at Curtis Brown. Author Emlyn Rees, who also worked on Framed, will again be collaborating with O'Sullivan to write the book.
O’Sullivan said: "When Jonny suggested I come to Pan Macmillan with the new crime series, I was really up for it, because I love working in the book industry, everyone is so passionate about what they do. The team at Pan Mac are great and I can't wait to work with Emlyn Rees again after the success of Framed and will look forward to November when Double Kiss hits the shops." https://www.thebookseller.com/news/pan-mac-publish-snooker-champ-ronnie-osullivans-next-novel-556516
Whether that means Ronnie wrote the first draft, or suggested the plot, or provided some colour for the snooker scenes, is not stated. If you get a signed copy, at least he will have written two words. Whether it matters provided they are rattling good yarns...
Wales wasn't a single land the way the Scots were when Edward I was having a go at them.
The hereditary laws tended to fragmentation in Wales as every son inherited, promoting division and fratricide. Scotland did, very early on, have the same system but shifted to the English approach which helped them becoming more cohesive.
So what? Ireland was a hotch-potch of Gaelic kingdoms.
In any case, countries exist now that never existed before.
Has Slovenia ever been an independent entity or "a single land" (as you put it)?
Until it became one in 1991.
Slovenia is part of the EU that Wales voted to Leave
We will never stop talking about Brexit because having had years of debate about project fear we now have the reality kicking in. The current debate is "if I didn't used to have to do a mountain of paperwork and pay fees before and now I do is that free trade"
People who import and export are saying "no it isn't". People who don't import and export are saying "yes it is".
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
The thing that is really odd is that RP voted for Brexit from memory - but now he's as arch a Europhile extremist as Scott or williamglenn.
Having examined some of RP's posting, I think we might describe his views as volatile.
(My recollection like you is he had a fit about the Remain campaign, and voted Leave).
My EFTA / EEA position hasn't changed throughout. We were inevitably going to pushed to the extremities of the two-speed Europe because we were not part of the Euro / Schengen / Army etc. So better to step off of our own volition than be flung off. Given the choice of what we now have or continued EU membership I'd stay in the EU - but that wasn't the only option.
That we are shouting about free trade having just left the free trade area is laughable. You can trade freely with the EU without being a member. We have chosen not to.
Really don't understand your last paragraph. We have chosen to trade freely with the EU without being a member. Whether that proves to be a good idea or not only time will tell.
Actually we haven't and RP is absolutely right on this. We have chosen to trade freely in certain specific areas. Had we chosen the EFTA/EEA route it would have been far more comprehensive. The only difference between RP and myself is I would still have chosen this over staying in. In the end trade, as he mentions, is only one small part of the EU project and the rest of it negates value we get from membership.
But what significant differences are there between our zero tariff/zero quota but outside of the customs area deal . . . with the EFTA/EEA Single Market but outside of the customs area deal?
The main issues RP complains about: customs declarations, rules of origin etc - they apply to the EEA too don't they? What would be significantly different between the EFTA and our deal now?
We have resolved this for Northern Ireland and your favourite PM Mrs May resolved it for the entire UK. The UK had no choice but to remain in a customs union and the EEA because of the GFA. That it would create a unique arrangement for the UK of combining EEA and CU membership outside the EU isn't an objection as we have just created a different unique arrangement.
I have to laugh at the stupidity of it. We have ended up with this omnishambles deal where we have the right to sign trade deals with elsewhere and change our standards, but only at the cost of tariffs and quotas. We have the right to have babies even though we can't have babies. Or, we could have agreed with the EU the exact same principle that isn't practical without imposing trade barriers and sinking our financial services sector.
No we've agreed a deal where we can and will have babies.
Simply because they can implement tariffs and quotas if we diverge too much doesn't mean that they will - or that it must be avoided.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
Thing is that when I talk to people about why they voted for Brexit, they can say something generic like "I don't like Europe telling us what to do", which when asked for an example quickly comes back to foreigners/migrants/asylum seekers. I wish it wasn't the case but it is.
You personally may not have voted Brexit because you wanted less foreigners - it wasn't why I voted leave either. But when you mop up all the different issues - even "sovereignty" - its too many foreigners taking our jobs. Vote to leave, less forrin, better jobs. It won't work like that, and people will get really upset about it, but that's reality.
"We want to take back control of our borders and have an Australian points-based migration system" is entirely about having fewer foreigners. Ending freedom of movement is about having fewer foreigners.
Completely fake news since immigration is one word to define the subject while sovereignty has half a dozen words.
If you actually use numbers then that was not the biggest issue. Have a look at what the real number one reason numerically was - for both Tory and Labour Leave voters as well as Leave voters overall.
The number one issue for leavers is taking decisions about Britain in Britain - the most important of those "decisions" seems to be about immigration. Therefore "sovereignty is just another word for" immigration "
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
No, I don't think so. If people freely choose self determination, I wish them well. The days we suppress independence movements by force of arms should be long since consigned to the history books.
Theses nationalist independence movements are not benign, they divide people and foster conflict. We have nothing to gain from borders being erected.
What is not benign is the colonial despots thinking it is still the empire days trying to not allow democratic votes in SOVEREIGN countries.
I have no issue with indyref2 probably late 2022 but of course it needs to proceed through the HOC and HOL so consensus amongst the 650 mps is a pre requisite and that remains to be seen
Of course you could declare UDI but any unofficial plebiscite would need to satisfy UK and international law and maybe the Scots need to challenge that through the courts first
Surely, that depends how well things go for Scotland? If it turns out that the SNP has been peddling empty rhetoric for decades and it is a hard, cold, lonely world out there, then I doubt the Welsh will go "Me too...."
If Scotland goes, Welsh Labour will be left with two options
1. To stay in a larger country (EnglandnWales) which is now overwhelmingly Tory.
2. To be in complete charge of a small country (Wales) which they will be able to run.
In the event of Independence, I believe the whole dynamic of politics will change in Wales. Plaid will become more relevant, both pre and post referendum. Labour will lose out, because they as usual will be late to the party, however the real losers will be the Welsh Tories whose irrelevance will be well and truly confirmed.
I agree that the dynamic of Welsh politics will change. Probably a good thing, as the present parties are in a rut.
My strong suspicion is that the more Llafur look at being stuck in a long-term marriage with people like Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the less and less they will like it.
Once Scotland has gone, the chance of a UK Labour Government is very low in the next few elections, IMO.
On most current polls Labour's only chance of forming a government is with the support of SNP MPs, the Tories will still have a majority in England and Wales.
So if Scotland went then yes Labour would have near zero chance of winning the next general election in the rUK and a non Blairite Labour Party would likely have little chance of ever winning power in rUK again and certainly not for any significant length of time
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
Thing is that when I talk to people about why they voted for Brexit, they can say something generic like "I don't like Europe telling us what to do", which when asked for an example quickly comes back to foreigners/migrants/asylum seekers. I wish it wasn't the case but it is.
You personally may not have voted Brexit because you wanted less foreigners - it wasn't why I voted leave either. But when you mop up all the different issues - even "sovereignty" - its too many foreigners taking our jobs. Vote to leave, less forrin, better jobs. It won't work like that, and people will get really upset about it, but that's reality.
"We want to take back control of our borders and have an Australian points-based migration system" is entirely about having fewer foreigners. Ending freedom of movement is about having fewer foreigners.
Yep. Immigration was the biggest specific issue. Totally undeniable. But listening to the underlying mood music of it all, I believe the old "nostalgia for days of Empire" comes through loud and clear.
IDS was on the news yesterday - the real Brexit Day, let's face it - and he said the following with his voice cracking and a teary gleam in his eye:
"Such a great moment. I wish I was 21 again because there are going to be such opportunities for our young people, able to trade all over the world, to buccaneer and dominate like we used to."
When you hear this sort of thing you know for a fact that the speaker is choosing to live not in 2021 but in a time long distant. Which is fair enough as a personal decision, you do whatever it takes to get through the day, but it's a poor basis for political decision making.
Many of these people think that they are 'free' and have 'woken up' and that others are 'sheeple'. It's what happens when you mix post-1960s suspicion of institutions, with levels of information, and levels of public discourse and debate, which are in fact increasingly much lower than during the late 1960s and 1970s.
Partial knowledge is a very dangerous thing.
Alternatively, most of those people think they are safe because they are in the open air, and relatively safe because they are young. They may be wrong but both views accord with government advice over the past year.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
No, I don't think so. If people freely choose self determination, I wish them well. The days we suppress independence movements by force of arms should be long since consigned to the history books.
Theses nationalist independence movements are not benign, they divide people and foster conflict. We have nothing to gain from borders being erected.
What is not benign is the colonial despots thinking it is still the empire days trying to not allow democratic votes in SOVEREIGN countries.
I have no issue with indyref2 probably late 2022 but of course it needs to proceed through the HOC and HOL so consensus amongst the 650 mps is a pre requisite and that remains to be seen
Of course you could declare UDI but any unofficial plebiscite would need to satisfy UK and international law and maybe the Scots need to challenge that through the courts first
There will be no indyref2 allowed by this Tory government, 2014 was once in a generation and Sturgeon would have as much success with a UDI declaration as the Catalans did when they declared UDI in defiance of Madrid
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
The thing that is really odd is that RP voted for Brexit from memory - but now he's as arch a Europhile extremist as Scott or williamglenn.
Having examined some of RP's posting, I think we might describe his views as volatile.
(My recollection like you is he had a fit about the Remain campaign, and voted Leave).
My EFTA / EEA position hasn't changed throughout. We were inevitably going to pushed to the extremities of the two-speed Europe because we were not part of the Euro / Schengen / Army etc. So better to step off of our own volition than be flung off. Given the choice of what we now have or continued EU membership I'd stay in the EU - but that wasn't the only option.
That we are shouting about free trade having just left the free trade area is laughable. You can trade freely with the EU without being a member. We have chosen not to.
Really don't understand your last paragraph. We have chosen to trade freely with the EU without being a member. Whether that proves to be a good idea or not only time will tell.
Actually we haven't and RP is absolutely right on this. We have chosen to trade freely in certain specific areas. Had we chosen the EFTA/EEA route it would have been far more comprehensive. The only difference between RP and myself is I would still have chosen this over staying in. In the end trade, as he mentions, is only one small part of the EU project and the rest of it negates value we get from membership.
But what significant differences are there between our zero tariff/zero quota but outside of the customs area deal . . . with the EFTA/EEA Single Market but outside of the customs area deal?
The main issues RP complains about: customs declarations, rules of origin etc - they apply to the EEA too don't they? What would be significantly different between the EFTA and our deal now?
We have resolved this for Northern Ireland and your favourite PM Mrs May resolved it for the entire UK. The UK had no choice but to remain in a customs union and the EEA because of the GFA. That it would create a unique arrangement for the UK of combining EEA and CU membership outside the EU isn't an objection as we have just created a different unique arrangement.
I have to laugh at the stupidity of it. We have ended up with this omnishambles deal where we have the right to sign trade deals with elsewhere and change our standards, but only at the cost of tariffs and quotas. We have the right to have babies even though we can't have babies. Or, we could have agreed with the EU the exact same principle that isn't practical without imposing trade barriers and sinking our financial services sector.
Yes Mrs May did do that and it was a terrible, terrible idea which is why she was ousted.
Considering that is not the EFTA arrangement nor the EEA arrangement . . . I can see why a Remainer who wanted "damage control" would seek her softest of soft Brexit In Name Only arrangements. I can't understand why someone would vote for Brexit expecting that?
Did you not think we could end up outside of the Customs Area like the EFTA and EEA?
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
No, I don't think so. If people freely choose self determination, I wish them well. The days we suppress independence movements by force of arms should be long since consigned to the history books.
Theses nationalist independence movements are not benign, they divide people and foster conflict. We have nothing to gain from borders being erected.
What is not benign is the colonial despots thinking it is still the empire days trying to not allow democratic votes in SOVEREIGN countries.
I have no issue with indyref2 probably late 2022 but of course it needs to proceed through the HOC and HOL so consensus amongst the 650 mps is a pre requisite and that remains to be seen
Of course you could declare UDI but any unofficial plebiscite would need to satisfy UK and international law and maybe the Scots need to challenge that through the courts first
There will be no indyref2 allowed by this Tory government, 2014 was once in a generation and Sturgeon would have as much success with a UDI declaration as the Catalans did when they declared UDI in defiance of Madrid
Wales is a very different beast to Scotland. It's been part of the Kingdom of England (And successors) for the previous ~ 1000 years, and if you look back before that was never really completely unified - Deheubarth/Gwynedd being antecedents to annexation by England. It's got a few of it's own laws now, but they're a very recent (1990s !) construct and there's no natural legal heritage there in the same way Scotland has it's own fully formed legal system. Also economically I'd wager South Wales is more linked to Bristol and North Wales to the Northwest than each other. Politically it acts as a slightly more leftwing version of England and the nationalist party is confined to west Wales. I severely doubt it'll happen in my lifetime (I'm 39) whereas Scotland looks more likely than not.
Exactly and Wales voted Leave just like England, it can have no complaints.
I oppose Scottish independence but at least Sturgeon can say she has an alternative to the UK, the EU, a Wales outside both the UK and the EU would not be viable
Blimey, you've come out swinging this morning.
The desire for Welsh Independence will go stratospheric after Scotland leave. And as you know yourself, economic arguments count for nothing, when the alternative is self-determination.
I am in, my family are in. We are converts!
When historians analyse Boris Johnson's legacy as Prime Minister in fifty, a hundred, two hundred years time, he will be referred to as the man who facilitated the demise of the United Kingdom.
Many of these people think that they are 'free' and have 'woken up' and that others are 'sheeple'. It's what happens when you mix post-1960s suspicion of institutions, with levels of information, and levels of public discourse and debate, which are in fact increasingly much lower than during the late 1960s and 1970s.
Partial knowledge is a very dangerous thing.
Alternatively, most of those people think they are safe because they are in the open air, and relatively safe because they are young. They may be wrong but both views accord with government advice over the past year.
I've come across several people of all ages in the last few weeks who explain their lack of mask-wearing, distancing, or observing any measures in particular, in terms of having "woken up, now " - delivery drivers, shop assistants, old men in shops. There's a fierce liberationism about, but it's built on the foundation of almost no knowledge - a sort of surreal parody of genuine questioning and self-information, like much current online debate is.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
There is more than one England. I am English and do not recognise what you say about my countrymen in me, my family, my friends or my work colleagues. Yes, the nativist reactionaries and bigots currently hold sway, but that does not have to be forever. In fact, I am confident it will not be. That's why I am not giving up on this place. It belongs to me as much as it does to Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson.
I don't recognise them in my immediate family either. But as you have just said, it is there. That could change over time and I hope that it does. But I don't have to choose to raise my family in this environment - other countries are available.
As to the comment up thread about responding to my rejecting nasty and judgemental people by being nasty and judgemental, there is a difference. Far too many people think that a long list of people are doing them wrong - foreigners, scoungers, lefties, the poor etc - and they treat them awfully. Me pointing this out isn't treating anyone awfully, its holding a mirror up so they can see themselves.
You will find toxic nationalism and bigotry everywhere. England is not special in that regard. France, Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Germany, China and the US all have that virus.
You might be less familiar with it, but it’s there all the same. Arguably, despite some recent political trends, England still handles it better than others.
‘Our toxic nationalism and bigotry is better than others’ toxic nationalism and bigotry’
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
No, I don't think so. If people freely choose self determination, I wish them well. The days we suppress independence movements by force of arms should be long since consigned to the history books.
Clearly, if the Union does end the sensible thing to do would be for all sides to sit down and work out a constructive, mutually beneficial future based on cooperation and friendship. Can you seriously see that happening, though?
Nationalism reduces cooperation, it’s essentially the whole point of it.
Absolutely agreed.
"Cooperation" is not always a good thing, especially when people have opposing priorities then cooperation actually becomes infighting and leads to arguments, sclerosis, decline, inactivity and decay.
Individualism, decisiveness and the lean ability to take actions is superior than collectivism.
I take it you’re not married.
I take it you don't read his posts, given he has often talked about a wife and a daughter.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
The thing that is really odd is that RP voted for Brexit from memory - but now he's as arch a Europhile extremist as Scott or williamglenn.
Having examined some of RP's posting, I think we might describe his views as volatile.
(My recollection like you is he had a fit about the Remain campaign, and voted Leave).
My EFTA / EEA position hasn't changed throughout. We were inevitably going to pushed to the extremities of the two-speed Europe because we were not part of the Euro / Schengen / Army etc. So better to step off of our own volition than be flung off. Given the choice of what we now have or continued EU membership I'd stay in the EU - but that wasn't the only option.
That we are shouting about free trade having just left the free trade area is laughable. You can trade freely with the EU without being a member. We have chosen not to.
Really don't understand your last paragraph. We have chosen to trade freely with the EU without being a member. Whether that proves to be a good idea or not only time will tell.
No we haven't. Free trade is exactly that. We have stopped trading freely and have chosen to impose customs and standards barriers. Following a 26 step process to export shellfish is not free trade, not when the process was a handful of steps until yesterday.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
The thing that is really odd is that RP voted for Brexit from memory - but now he's as arch a Europhile extremist as Scott or williamglenn.
Having examined some of RP's posting, I think we might describe his views as volatile.
(My recollection like you is he had a fit about the Remain campaign, and voted Leave).
My EFTA / EEA position hasn't changed throughout. We were inevitably going to pushed to the extremities of the two-speed Europe because we were not part of the Euro / Schengen / Army etc. So better to step off of our own volition than be flung off. Given the choice of what we now have or continued EU membership I'd stay in the EU - but that wasn't the only option.
That we are shouting about free trade having just left the free trade area is laughable. You can trade freely with the EU without being a member. We have chosen not to.
Really don't understand your last paragraph. We have chosen to trade freely with the EU without being a member. Whether that proves to be a good idea or not only time will tell.
No we haven't. Free trade is exactly that. We have stopped trading freely and have chosen to impose customs and standards barriers. Following a 26 step process to export shellfish is not free trade, not when the process was a handful of steps until yesterday.
In goods we have the freest trade we could have without being members. No tariffs, no quotas, limited rules of origin and a LPF of sorts. Of course that trade was fractionally freer when we were members but that is not what you said.
Precisely.
Sorry Mr Tusk but we have 100% picked the cherries that we wanted.
If we did we did it with a blindfold on. Services should have been the first cherry picked and it never was. May's deal was better in that respect and it is important that this is sorted out for us in the next few months. Yesterday the FCA basically created a breathing space by which financial services in London for the EU will effectively be subject to a kind of dual regulation for the next 3 months. We need it sorted out by the end of that period.
Can you remind me please did Mrs May ensure that the City would remain regulated by Brussels or would it be regulated by London?
Given the national and global significance and importance of the City having it regulated by London is more important than free trade with Europe.
If we can negotiation mutual recognition then that would be good, but it would be better to have the end of mutual recognition and the end of passporting than to be ruletakers from Brussels with passporting.
I spent time over the festive period watching the entire 26 episodes of the World at War. I had never done it previously. If you haven't, I suggest you do. It is a masterwork. It also provides some perspective. So many of the people interviewed were, like I am now, in their mid-50s. They were combatants, they were civilians, they were victims, they were perpetrators and they came from all the countries involved. I cannot imagine having to live with the weight of the memories they carried with them each and every day - the deep pain, the trauma, the suffering, the guilt. But they did; tens of millions of them. Our duty is to ensure that it never happens again; that nationalism never takes root as it did before. We must not run away from that.
War is not about nationalism.
Nationalism can be healthy, it typically is.
Do not confuse nationalism with jingoism.
You're wrong there Philip.
Nationalism is always bad news; patriotism is good for nothing (except promulgating wars).
Codswallop. You're projecting just because you don't like something. Nationalism is very good news much of the time.
By ‘much of the time’ do you mean that during the C20 nationalism hadn’t mired us in a world war 90% of the time.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
No, I don't think so. If people freely choose self determination, I wish them well. The days we suppress independence movements by force of arms should be long since consigned to the history books.
Theses nationalist independence movements are not benign, they divide people and foster conflict. We have nothing to gain from borders being erected.
What is not benign is the colonial despots thinking it is still the empire days trying to not allow democratic votes in SOVEREIGN countries.
I have no issue with indyref2 probably late 2022 but of course it needs to proceed through the HOC and HOL so consensus amongst the 650 mps is a pre requisite and that remains to be seen
Of course you could declare UDI but any unofficial plebiscite would need to satisfy UK and international law and maybe the Scots need to challenge that through the courts first
There will be no indyref2 allowed by this Tory government, 2014 was once in a generation and Sturgeon would have as much success with a UDI declaration as the Catalans did when they declared UDI in defiance of Madrid
🥱😴
HYUFD is probably right in the sense there won't be one - but not because of the once in a generation stuff.
It'll be because Johnsom won't grant a section 30.
Wales is a very different beast to Scotland. It's been part of the Kingdom of England (And successors) for the previous ~ 1000 years, and if you look back before that was never really completely unified - Deheubarth/Gwynedd being antecedents to annexation by England. It's got a few of it's own laws now, but they're a very recent (1990s !) construct and there's no natural legal heritage there in the same way Scotland has it's own fully formed legal system. Also economically I'd wager South Wales is more linked to Bristol and North Wales to the Northwest than each other. Politically it acts as a slightly more leftwing version of England and the nationalist party is confined to west Wales. I severely doubt it'll happen in my lifetime (I'm 39) whereas Scotland looks more likely than not.
Exactly and Wales voted Leave just like England, it can have no complaints.
I oppose Scottish independence but at least Sturgeon can say she has an alternative to the UK, the EU, a Wales outside both the UK and the EU would not be viable
Blimey, you've come out swinging this morning.
The desire for Welsh Independence will go stratospheric after Scotland leave. And as you know yourself, economic arguments count for nothing, when the alternative is self-determination.
I am in, my family are in. We are converts!
When historians analyse Boris Johnson's legacy as Prime Minister in fifty, a hundred, two hundred years time, he will be referred to as the man who facilitated the demise of the United Kingdom.
No it won't.
First Scotland will not be leaving anyway, certainly under this Tory government it will not be allowed.
Second in terms of economic arguments less than half of UK exports went to the EU in 2016, most Welsh exports go to England now.
The only real support for Welsh independence comes from leftwing Welsh Remainers and Wales voted Leave
I spent time over the festive period watching the entire 26 episodes of the World at War. I had never done it previously. If you haven't, I suggest you do. It is a masterwork. It also provides some perspective. So many of the people interviewed were, like I am now, in their mid-50s. They were combatants, they were civilians, they were victims, they were perpetrators and they came from all the countries involved. I cannot imagine having to live with the weight of the memories they carried with them each and every day - the deep pain, the trauma, the suffering, the guilt. But they did; tens of millions of them. Our duty is to ensure that it never happens again; that nationalism never takes root as it did before. We must not run away from that.
War is not about nationalism.
Nationalism can be healthy, it typically is.
Do not confuse nationalism with jingoism.
You're wrong there Philip.
Nationalism is always bad news; patriotism is good for nothing (except promulgating wars).
Codswallop. You're projecting just because you don't like something. Nationalism is very good news much of the time.
By ‘much of the time’ do you mean that during the C20 nationalism hadn’t mired us in a world war 90% of the time.
What a dumb ass question. Given we would own almost 10% of the 100M doses , what makes you think we would be short. I never fail to be amazed with the pomposity and stupidity of unionists
What if the young people of here and now don't want to buccaneer and dominate? Is there really any evidence that any buccaneering tendencies have been thwarted in recent decades?
How much of... this... is driven by a generation that never got to fight in a Proper Heroic War, having grown up hearing heroic stories of their uncles who did?
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
No, I don't think so. If people freely choose self determination, I wish them well. The days we suppress independence movements by force of arms should be long since consigned to the history books.
Theses nationalist independence movements are not benign, they divide people and foster conflict. We have nothing to gain from borders being erected.
What is not benign is the colonial despots thinking it is still the empire days trying to not allow democratic votes in SOVEREIGN countries.
I have no issue with indyref2 probably late 2022 but of course it needs to proceed through the HOC and HOL so consensus amongst the 650 mps is a pre requisite and that remains to be seen
Of course you could declare UDI but any unofficial plebiscite would need to satisfy UK and international law and maybe the Scots need to challenge that through the courts first
There will be no indyref2 allowed by this Tory government, 2014 was once in a generation and Sturgeon would have as much success with a UDI declaration as the Catalans did when they declared UDI in defiance of Madrid
The great hulking Leviathan of Scottish independence is rolling, and without brakes. Johnson can hold off the inevitable until post 2024, but it will happen. Labour need to wise up to this. As part of their preparation for future government, they need to consider how this plays out.
If Johnson does hold off on a referendum until he is out of office, it won't matter. History will view him as the architect of an Independent Scotland, an independent Wales and a United Ireland.
It may be seen as an accidental, but nonetheless positive legacy.
What a dumb ass question. Given we would own almost 10% of the 100M doses , what makes you think we would be short. I never fail to be amazed with the pomposity and stupidity of unionists
If you were independent in the EU do you think you would have joined England's scheme, the EU's scheme or had your own scheme?
How are the inevitable 20 miles queues of trucks on the M20 doing?
Drivers are expected to stay away from the main Channel ports on New Year’s Day and over the weekend due to fears that new paperwork requirements could lead to long traffic jams.
About 800 HGVs are expected to use the Port of Dover and the Channel Tunnel today as the UK’s new trading relationship with the European Union is introduced. Up to 10,000 trucks a day would usually make the crossing between Kent and Calais.
"Many on the remainer left accept the EU has its faults, but they fear that Brexit will be the start of something worse: slash and burn deregulation that will make Britain a nastier place to live.
This, though, assumes that Britain will have rightwing governments in perpetuity. It used to be the left who welcomed change and the right that wanted things to remain the same. The inability to envisage what a progressive government could do with Brexit represents a political role reversal and a colossal loss of nerve."
Much of it rings true to me.
Based on experience, it seems more realistic to assume that Britain will have right-wing governments in perpetuity than to assume the alternative.
18yrs of Tory, 13 yrs of Labour and now 10+ yrs of Tory. There is a reasonable chance of a change in 2024.
This is a useful header because of the final para on Scotland. Philip frames the decision for Johnson (assuming the SNP get that Holyrood victory) as one between what is good for the country and what is good for him - for Johnson, I mean, not Philip, although it can be hard to tell the difference sometimes - the options being respectively granting and denying Sindy2. If we accept that framing, and I think I probably do, it becomes possible to predict in advance to around a 99.95% level of confidence what the outcome will be.
Yep. No Ref. Which makes the following 2 bets good value at current odds -
(i) Back no Sindy2 before 2025 at 2.1 (ii) Lay Sindy2 in 2022 at 4.8
I prefer (ii).
Yes we Tories will block indyref2 whatever happens at Holyrood next year though I think now No Deal is avoided the chances of an SNP majority next year are significantly reduced
Technical correction - you can't "avoid" something that was never there - but I take the point you're making. I imagine most Scottish voters subscribe to the view that a Thin Deal is better than No Deal, and no doubt many of them were as fooled by the No Deal hyping as people down here were.
How are you feeling now about Georgia btw? Is there a degree of concern creeping in that the Dems could do it and leave you £25 in the hole?
Doesn't he wish he was 21 again for the socialising with the opposite sex and parties, like many people do ? This particular vision of Brexit sounds interestingly like a form of displacement activity.
I spent time over the festive period watching the entire 26 episodes of the World at War. I had never done it previously. If you haven't, I suggest you do. It is a masterwork. It also provides some perspective. So many of the people interviewed were, like I am now, in their mid-50s. They were combatants, they were civilians, they were victims, they were perpetrators and they came from all the countries involved. I cannot imagine having to live with the weight of the memories they carried with them each and every day - the deep pain, the trauma, the suffering, the guilt. But they did; tens of millions of them. Our duty is to ensure that it never happens again; that nationalism never takes root as it did before. We must not run away from that.
War is not about nationalism.
Nationalism can be healthy, it typically is.
Do not confuse nationalism with jingoism.
You're wrong there Philip.
Nationalism is always bad news; patriotism is good for nothing (except promulgating wars).
Codswallop. You're projecting just because you don't like something. Nationalism is very good news much of the time.
By ‘much of the time’ do you mean that during the C20 nationalism hadn’t mired us in a world war 90% of the time.
While pumping out 50km on the bike-erg in the pain cave this morning, I tried watching Better Call Saul....does it get better after the first couple of episodes? Cos I was struggling to remain interested.
"Many on the remainer left accept the EU has its faults, but they fear that Brexit will be the start of something worse: slash and burn deregulation that will make Britain a nastier place to live.
This, though, assumes that Britain will have rightwing governments in perpetuity. It used to be the left who welcomed change and the right that wanted things to remain the same. The inability to envisage what a progressive government could do with Brexit represents a political role reversal and a colossal loss of nerve."
Much of it rings true to me.
Based on experience, it seems more realistic to assume that Britain will have right-wing governments in perpetuity than to assume the alternative.
18yrs of Tory, 13 yrs of Labour and now 10+ yrs of Tory. There is a reasonable chance of a change in 2024.
Indeed, only 1 party has won a general election after 10 years or more in power since WW2, the Tories in 1992 so the odds historically should favour Labour in 2024 but it very much likely depends on Scotland staying in the UK as without Scottish MPs backing Starmer to be PM the Tories would still likely have a majority in England and Wales, especially with No Deal avoided
While pumping out 50km on the bike-erg in the pain cave this morning, I tried watching Better Call Saul....does it get better after the first couple of episodes? Cos I was struggling to remain interested.
I like it and think it improves. Every episode is a bit like a puzzle of working what is what. I'm onto the latest season now and feel like it's losing it's way a bit though...
I spent time over the festive period watching the entire 26 episodes of the World at War. I had never done it previously. If you haven't, I suggest you do. It is a masterwork. It also provides some perspective. So many of the people interviewed were, like I am now, in their mid-50s. They were combatants, they were civilians, they were victims, they were perpetrators and they came from all the countries involved. I cannot imagine having to live with the weight of the memories they carried with them each and every day - the deep pain, the trauma, the suffering, the guilt. But they did; tens of millions of them. Our duty is to ensure that it never happens again; that nationalism never takes root as it did before. We must not run away from that.
War is not about nationalism.
Nationalism can be healthy, it typically is.
Do not confuse nationalism with jingoism.
You're wrong there Philip.
Nationalism is always bad news; patriotism is good for nothing (except promulgating wars).
Codswallop. You're projecting just because you don't like something. Nationalism is very good news much of the time.
By ‘much of the time’ do you mean that during the C20 nationalism hadn’t mired us in a world war 90% of the time.
Nationalism didn't mire us in world wars.
What then caused WW1 if not nationalism?
Bit of imperialism involved...
Precisely.
Imperialism is the antithesis of nationalism.
What a ridiculous thing to say.
How? Was Gandhi an imperialist or a nationalist?
Nationalism led to the break-up of empires. Empires are about expanding, nationalism is about dividing. It is expanding not dividing that leads to wars and conflict.
Was World War I was caused by expansionist empires fighting each other, or was it nationalist countries seeking to manage their own affairs independently.
The main belligerents in World War One were the French Empire, British Empire, Russian Empire, German Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire and their allies . . . do you notice a common factor amongst those? Was it imperialism or nationalism?
Imperialism absolutely led to multiple World Wars.
We are going to be seeing this all year but particularly in the first 6 months. Many things that did not make the cut in the agreement will be resolved with co-operation and interdependence being established once again. Services are obviously the most important. Will the ECB be pressured into accepting that contracts booked in London are regulated by the FCA under the auspices of the BoE even when they relate to Euros and are for EU businesses? I think that they will.
My principal aspiration for 2021 (other than stopping the SNP from getting the absolute majority that both Philip and I have forecast) is that by the end of it we will have a much better relationship with Europe with many of the benefits of membership of the EU but none of the politics. Which is what I think about 80% of us always wanted.
I expect that by the end of this year enough of these bilateral deals will have been done that for the average Brit having left the EU will be barely any different than from before. It's just a shame that it has taken 4 and half years of arguing to get to the point where pragmatism has taken over.
What a dumb ass question. Given we would own almost 10% of the 100M doses , what makes you think we would be short. I never fail to be amazed with the pomposity and stupidity of unionists
If you were independent in the EU do you think you would have joined England's scheme, the EU's scheme or had your own scheme?
This is a useful header because of the final para on Scotland. Philip frames the decision for Johnson (assuming the SNP get that Holyrood victory) as one between what is good for the country and what is good for him - for Johnson, I mean, not Philip, although it can be hard to tell the difference sometimes - the options being respectively granting and denying Sindy2. If we accept that framing, and I think I probably do, it becomes possible to predict in advance to around a 99.95% level of confidence what the outcome will be.
Yep. No Ref. Which makes the following 2 bets good value at current odds -
(i) Back no Sindy2 before 2025 at 2.1 (ii) Lay Sindy2 in 2022 at 4.8
I prefer (ii).
Yes we Tories will block indyref2 whatever happens at Holyrood next year though I think now No Deal is avoided the chances of an SNP majority next year are significantly reduced
Changing the subject to a more pressing matter: I think you said yesterday that you believe 15 AZ vaccines have been produced but not yet packaged (IIRC).
That would be fantastic news if true. Do you have a source for that info? Thanks
Well-placed sources said almost a million doses will be “on the shelf” in time for the roll out next week and a further two million made available by the middle of January.
On Wednesday Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, had said 530,000 doses had been cleared for release but another 407,000 will now be ready for use by this Monday.
[snip]
A further three million Oxford doses have been stored in vials for immediate use once given safety clearance with a further 15 million waiting for the “fill and finish” stage - where they are put into glass vials. That process takes just days.
I'm not sure from that if the 15 million are including the 3 million + 1 million or as well as the 4 million. If they're as well as the 4 million then that means 19 million are already produced so far in total.
Thanks. This all sounds like very good news.
We'll have to agree to differ on the 'nationalism' front.
At least we avoided fulfilling Godwin's Law.
(Oh bugger, that probably counts... Godwin's Law: to mention it it to fulfil it.)
I spent time over the festive period watching the entire 26 episodes of the World at War. I had never done it previously. If you haven't, I suggest you do. It is a masterwork. It also provides some perspective. So many of the people interviewed were, like I am now, in their mid-50s. They were combatants, they were civilians, they were victims, they were perpetrators and they came from all the countries involved. I cannot imagine having to live with the weight of the memories they carried with them each and every day - the deep pain, the trauma, the suffering, the guilt. But they did; tens of millions of them. Our duty is to ensure that it never happens again; that nationalism never takes root as it did before. We must not run away from that.
War is not about nationalism.
Nationalism can be healthy, it typically is.
Do not confuse nationalism with jingoism.
You're wrong there Philip.
Nationalism is always bad news; patriotism is good for nothing (except promulgating wars).
Codswallop. You're projecting just because you don't like something. Nationalism is very good news much of the time.
By ‘much of the time’ do you mean that during the C20 nationalism hadn’t mired us in a world war 90% of the time.
Nationalism didn't mire us in world wars.
What then caused WW1 if not nationalism?
Bit of imperialism involved...
Precisely.
Imperialism is the antithesis of nationalism.
What a ridiculous thing to say.
Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. Nationalism arguably led to the formation of the German empire but the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian one.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
I have rejected England. I cannot stand what we have become, can see no way to turn around the rank stupidity and arrogant exceptionalism, so I'm leaving.
England has turned into an insular we are better fuck you country which would make sense if we were still the industrial powerhouse of the 60s or had a financial sector we hadn't just signed away with a Brexit deal that doesn't protect it. So having become spiteful and nasty towards the countries more prosperous and less cunty than we are, we will slide to being even less prosperous and even nastier.
Or, more accurately, you will. Norniron will be fine, cast off the UK by a government so thick that it didn't realise it was doing it. Gibraltar, cast off to become British in Name Only. And Scotland, who at the very least will want their own slice of freedom and at the most will walk.
People in England want to be free of the forrin? Lets be honest, that includes Paddy and Jock just as much as it does the Hun and the Frogs. Time to accept that and let England do whatever it thinks a country of its stature is entitled to.
TBH I think you need to look in a different mirror.
Brexit is not to do with expelling the "forrin". It is to do with not being controlled by an unaccountable, demonstrably irreformable EU.
Having a headspace dominated by 'EU' (not "Europe") is far more parochial than looking more widely.
Let's see what happens.
The thing that is really odd is that RP voted for Brexit from memory - but now he's as arch a Europhile extremist as Scott or williamglenn.
Having examined some of RP's posting, I think we might describe his views as volatile.
(My recollection like you is he had a fit about the Remain campaign, and voted Leave).
My EFTA / EEA position hasn't changed throughout. We were inevitably going to pushed to the extremities of the two-speed Europe because we were not part of the Euro / Schengen / Army etc. So better to step off of our own volition than be flung off. Given the choice of what we now have or continued EU membership I'd stay in the EU - but that wasn't the only option.
That we are shouting about free trade having just left the free trade area is laughable. You can trade freely with the EU without being a member. We have chosen not to.
Really don't understand your last paragraph. We have chosen to trade freely with the EU without being a member. Whether that proves to be a good idea or not only time will tell.
No we haven't. Free trade is exactly that. We have stopped trading freely and have chosen to impose customs and standards barriers. Following a 26 step process to export shellfish is not free trade, not when the process was a handful of steps until yesterday.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
No, I don't think so. If people freely choose self determination, I wish them well. The days we suppress independence movements by force of arms should be long since consigned to the history books.
Theses nationalist independence movements are not benign, they divide people and foster conflict. We have nothing to gain from borders being erected.
What is not benign is the colonial despots thinking it is still the empire days trying to not allow democratic votes in SOVEREIGN countries.
I have no issue with indyref2 probably late 2022 but of course it needs to proceed through the HOC and HOL so consensus amongst the 650 mps is a pre requisite and that remains to be seen
Of course you could declare UDI but any unofficial plebiscite would need to satisfy UK and international law and maybe the Scots need to challenge that through the courts first
There will be no indyref2 allowed by this Tory government, 2014 was once in a generation and Sturgeon would have as much success with a UDI declaration as the Catalans did when they declared UDI in defiance of Madrid
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
No, I don't think so. If people freely choose self determination, I wish them well. The days we suppress independence movements by force of arms should be long since consigned to the history books.
Theses nationalist independence movements are not benign, they divide people and foster conflict. We have nothing to gain from borders being erected.
What is not benign is the colonial despots thinking it is still the empire days trying to not allow democratic votes in SOVEREIGN countries.
I have no issue with indyref2 probably late 2022 but of course it needs to proceed through the HOC and HOL so consensus amongst the 650 mps is a pre requisite and that remains to be seen
Of course you could declare UDI but any unofficial plebiscite would need to satisfy UK and international law and maybe the Scots need to challenge that through the courts first
There will be no indyref2 allowed by this Tory government, 2014 was once in a generation and Sturgeon would have as much success with a UDI declaration as the Catalans did when they declared UDI in defiance of Madrid
The great hulking Leviathan of Scottish independence is rolling, and without brakes. Johnson can hold off the inevitable until post 2024, but it will happen. Labour need to wise up to this. As part of their preparation for future government, they need to consider how this plays out.
If Johnson does hold off on a referendum until he is out of office, it won't matter. History will view him as the architect of an Independent Scotland, an independent Wales and a United Ireland.
It may be seen as an accidental, but nonetheless positive legacy.
I expect if Starmer did get in in 2024 in return for SNP confidence and supply he may well agree indyref2 but offer Scotland devomax with regional assemblies for England and renegotiate the Brexit Deal to make it more closely aligned to the EU than Boris' is.
There will be no independent Scotland, Wales and UI under Boris so obviously he will not be the architects of them and in Wales Boris delivered a Leave win exactly as he did in England and Boris also won the highest voteshare for the Tories in Wales of any Tory leader for almost 100 years so obviously that would not be his legacy as far as Wales goes anyway
This is a useful header because of the final para on Scotland. Philip frames the decision for Johnson (assuming the SNP get that Holyrood victory) as one between what is good for the country and what is good for him - for Johnson, I mean, not Philip, although it can be hard to tell the difference sometimes - the options being respectively granting and denying Sindy2. If we accept that framing, and I think I probably do, it becomes possible to predict in advance to around a 99.95% level of confidence what the outcome will be.
Yep. No Ref. Which makes the following 2 bets good value at current odds -
(i) Back no Sindy2 before 2025 at 2.1 (ii) Lay Sindy2 in 2022 at 4.8
I prefer (ii).
Yes we Tories will block indyref2 whatever happens at Holyrood next year though I think now No Deal is avoided the chances of an SNP majority next year are significantly reduced
No ‘thumping’ SNP majority today?
If the SNP cannot even repeat the overall majority they got at Holyrood in 2011 before the 2014 indyref obviously they could not even claim a mandate for indyref2 anyway
Comments
Wales already has most of the infrastructure it needs to be its own country. They already have a Parliament and don't need to build a new one.
It would be disruptive like Brexit, but it is entirely viable.
The advantages for small and poor countries to be in the EU are enormous. See Ireland.
The main issues RP complains about: customs declarations, rules of origin etc - they apply to the EEA too don't they? What would be significantly different between the EFTA and our deal now?
Maybe the Federation of England and Wales should quietly leave the Union.
I will be interested to see Starmer's ideas on devolution, although I suspect it will be more about placating the Scots than creating a better system of governance for England and the UK as a whole.
For that matter, the south had long been in the hands of Norman (then English) Marcher lords.
Changing the subject to a more pressing matter: I think you said yesterday that you believe 15 AZ vaccines have been produced but not yet packaged (IIRC).
That would be fantastic news if true. Do you have a source for that info? Thanks
Nationalism didn't cause the two World Wars, but arguably the rise of nationalism (as well as the rise of nuclear weaponry) did prevent a third.
Nationalism has led to countless countries going independent and an end to the era of Empires. It was a belief in Empires not Nationalism that fuelled the two world wars, especially the first. Nationalism is the antithesis of Empires and World Wars.
Gandhi was a nationalist. How did Gandhi's nationalism fuel world wars?
Tariffs and Quotas would have been bad, so its good that we have avoided them. But the PM is either lying to the Commons or is so dumb that he doesn't understand the difference when he says no quotas/tariffs means free trade.
What is depressing about the whole issue is that footbalification means the facts are in dispute. Paperwork and fees are an additional cost/time burden being added to business. That one side are trying to argue they are not or even that they don't really exist is really sad.
We in the North see ourselves much closer to Liverpool, Manchester and Chester than Cardiff which is remote and governs for South Wales only in most North Walians eyes
Nationalism dissolved and broke up empires.
Empires are about expanding and conquering and uniting the world in your banner.
Nationalism in this sense (like Gandhi and SNP and Brexit) is about shrinking and smaller nations controlling themselves not others.
Partial knowledge is a very dangerous thing.
If Scotland was sovereign there'd be no debate and no dispute. If a Section 30 order is denied then all that does is prove that Scotland isn't sovereign - and why it should be.
So what else were you expecting?
I oppose Scottish independence but at least Sturgeon can say she has an alternative to the UK, the EU, a Wales outside both the UK and the EU would not be viable
If we are ever in a position to spend European money again in Wales, I hope it would be for major infrastructure projects like rail and road links, rather than cobblestone paving in Cemaes Bay or cycle paths from Llanelli Docks to Pembrey Country Park.
I have to laugh at the stupidity of it. We have ended up with this omnishambles deal where we have the right to sign trade deals with elsewhere and change our standards, but only at the cost of tariffs and quotas. We have the right to have babies even though we can't have babies. Or, we could have agreed with the EU the exact same principle that isn't practical without imposing trade barriers and sinking our financial services sector.
"The Oxford vaccine needs to spend 20 days in sterilisation, so there’s a waiting game – which is why just 530,000 of the promised 4 million doses will be ready by Monday."
Telegraph
He'll be gambling on an SNP split in Scotland as a result of them not agreeing on next steps.
Well-placed sources said almost a million doses will be “on the shelf” in time for the roll out next week and a further two million made available by the middle of January.
On Wednesday Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, had said 530,000 doses had been cleared for release but another 407,000 will now be ready for use by this Monday.
[snip]
A further three million Oxford doses have been stored in vials for immediate use once given safety clearance with a further 15 million waiting for the “fill and finish” stage - where they are put into glass vials. That process takes just days.
I'm not sure from that if the 15 million are including the 3 million + 1 million or as well as the 4 million. If they're as well as the 4 million then that means 19 million are already produced so far in total.
Pan Macmillan has poached Ronnie "The Rocket" O’Sullivan after his debut, Framed, published last year with Orion. Pan Macmillan will publish his sequel, Double Kiss, in November.
The follow-up will take readers back to the summer of Euro ‘96 and gangland Soho, drawing on the five-time world snooker champion's own personal experiences of Soho, his parents’ time in prison and of the hedonistic ‘90s club scene.
Like Framed, Double Kiss will again follow protagonist Frankie James "struggling to stay out of trouble". But while Framed was about the "dog-eat-dog underworld" of 1980s Soho, its sequel will be set in the '90s.
Victoria Hughes-Williams, senior commissioning editor, acquired world rights (excluding China) in a two-book deal, from Jonny Geller at Curtis Brown. Author Emlyn Rees, who also worked on Framed, will again be collaborating with O'Sullivan to write the book.
O’Sullivan said: "When Jonny suggested I come to Pan Macmillan with the new crime series, I was really up for it, because I love working in the book industry, everyone is so passionate about what they do. The team at Pan Mac are great and I can't wait to work with Emlyn Rees again after the success of Framed and will look forward to November when Double Kiss hits the shops."
https://www.thebookseller.com/news/pan-mac-publish-snooker-champ-ronnie-osullivans-next-novel-556516
Whether that means Ronnie wrote the first draft, or suggested the plot, or provided some colour for the snooker scenes, is not stated. If you get a signed copy, at least he will have written two words. Whether it matters provided they are rattling good yarns...
People who import and export are saying "no it isn't". People who don't import and export are saying "yes it is".
Simply because they can implement tariffs and quotas if we diverge too much doesn't mean that they will - or that it must be avoided.
Of course you could declare UDI but any unofficial plebiscite would need to satisfy UK and international law and maybe the Scots need to challenge that through the courts first
So if Scotland went then yes Labour would have near zero chance of winning the next general election in the rUK and a non Blairite Labour Party would likely have little chance of ever winning power in rUK again and certainly not for any significant length of time
IDS was on the news yesterday - the real Brexit Day, let's face it - and he said the following with his voice cracking and a teary gleam in his eye:
"Such a great moment. I wish I was 21 again because there are going to be such opportunities for our young people, able to trade all over the world, to buccaneer and dominate like we used to."
When you hear this sort of thing you know for a fact that the speaker is choosing to live not in 2021 but in a time long distant. Which is fair enough as a personal decision, you do whatever it takes to get through the day, but it's a poor basis for political decision making.
was that a typo or a Freudian slip?
Considering that is not the EFTA arrangement nor the EEA arrangement . . . I can see why a Remainer who wanted "damage control" would seek her softest of soft Brexit In Name Only arrangements. I can't understand why someone would vote for Brexit expecting that?
Did you not think we could end up outside of the Customs Area like the EFTA and EEA?
The desire for Welsh Independence will go stratospheric after Scotland leave. And as you know yourself, economic arguments count for nothing, when the alternative is self-determination.
I am in, my family are in. We are converts!
When historians analyse Boris Johnson's legacy as Prime Minister in fifty, a hundred, two hundred years time, he will be referred to as the man who facilitated the demise of the United Kingdom.
Given the national and global significance and importance of the City having it regulated by London is more important than free trade with Europe.
If we can negotiation mutual recognition then that would be good, but it would be better to have the end of mutual recognition and the end of passporting than to be ruletakers from Brussels with passporting.
It'll be because Johnsom won't grant a section 30.
First Scotland will not be leaving anyway, certainly under this Tory government it will not be allowed.
Second in terms of economic arguments less than half of UK exports went to the EU in 2016, most Welsh exports go to England now.
The only real support for Welsh independence comes from leftwing Welsh Remainers and Wales voted Leave
Imperialism is the antithesis of nationalism.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1344790309314691072?s=20
How much of... this... is driven by a generation that never got to fight in a Proper Heroic War, having grown up hearing heroic stories of their uncles who did?
If Johnson does hold off on a referendum until he is out of office, it won't matter. History will view him as the architect of an Independent Scotland, an independent Wales and a United Ireland.
It may be seen as an accidental, but nonetheless positive legacy.
How are you feeling now about Georgia btw? Is there a degree of concern creeping in that the Dems could do it and leave you £25 in the hole?
https://www.businessforscotland.com/the-quick-quiz-on-scotlands-economy-that-shocked-independence-supporters-and-unionists-alike/
Nationalism led to the break-up of empires. Empires are about expanding, nationalism is about dividing. It is expanding not dividing that leads to wars and conflict.
Was World War I was caused by expansionist empires fighting each other, or was it nationalist countries seeking to manage their own affairs independently.
The main belligerents in World War One were the French Empire, British Empire, Russian Empire, German Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire and their allies . . . do you notice a common factor amongst those? Was it imperialism or nationalism?
Imperialism absolutely led to multiple World Wars.
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/italiens-regierung-kritisiert-deutschen-impfstoff-kauf-17125878.html
Wishing you all a good 2021.
We'll have to agree to differ on the 'nationalism' front.
At least we avoided fulfilling Godwin's Law.
(Oh bugger, that probably counts... Godwin's Law: to mention it it to fulfil it.)
PS why are there only two l's in fulfil?
And tbh I think he's justified. Johnson was the midwife but Brexit is Farage's baby.
There will be no independent Scotland, Wales and UI under Boris so obviously he will not be the architects of them and in Wales Boris delivered a Leave win exactly as he did in England and Boris also won the highest voteshare for the Tories in Wales of any Tory leader for almost 100 years so obviously that would not be his legacy as far as Wales goes anyway
Anyway, happy new year to everyone on PB, it's been a great 12 years since I started posting about and betting on politics.
Here's to another 12, hopefully a lot better than 2020!