THOUGH do have to add, this is without doubt the best pic of NF yours truly has ever seen. He actually looks like a reasonably-normal human being! More than just that, a guy that you'd like to have a your party. At least until he started wearing a lampshade or chewing up the family crystal!
Happy New Year all - let's hope that this one will be a bit *less* interesting. Thanks to Philip for the header - on the optimstic side, I think but who knows really?
Weirdly, 2020 also contained some of the happiest moments of my life - true and tranquil contentment, during sunny Lockdown 1 - but they are heavily outweighed by the woes. And the debts, deaths, divorces and depressions I have witnessed at close hand, and further afield.
Fuck off, 2020. Hello, 2021. Please just be mediocre. That will do us fine
In 2020 I started employed by a business with great prospects having built a brilliant team. I had to progressively sack the team until I myself got sacked with the business struggling to survive. I haven't seen my mid-70s parents since February with no expectation when that will change as thanks to lockdown / shielding there hasn't been a minute since where its legal for us to hug. I've seen my eldest have to scrap university for a year and mentally struggle. My younger kids spend months off school. I went mad and ended up finally on anti-depressants.
The upsides? Carpe Diem, Baby. We're selling up and moving to Scotland. Couldn't have happened without the significant change in how we live and work. So ambitions to run my own company and move to Scotland can now happen.
Happy New Year all - let's hope that this one will be a bit *less* interesting. Thanks to Philip for the header - on the optimstic side, I think but who knows really?
Happy New Years, from back in 2020. Still three hours until the ball drops in Times Square - and six until it's 2021 here in Seattle.
Re: PT's excellent contribution, well, I've always pegged you as a glass-half-full kinda guy. May your cup and that of all good (and bad) PBers runneth over!
Quick question: when I was a kid, me, my sisters and parents would celebrate New Years Eve approx 9pm, by baning on pots and pans. This was organized by my mother, clearly she'd done this a a kid herself. We then lived in Eastern Time Zone so the ball dropping in Times Square was THE moment. But it was years before we made it that late.
Back then we didn't know or think about what people in the rest of the world were doing. except to know they were doing it earlier or later than us - rather pointless factoid.
Weirdly, 2020 also contained some of the happiest moments of my life - true and tranquil contentment, during sunny Lockdown 1 - but they are heavily outweighed by the woes. And the debts, deaths, divorces and depressions I have witnessed at close hand, and further afield.
Fuck off, 2020. Hello, 2021. Please just be mediocre. That will do us fine
In 2020 I started employed by a business with great prospects having built a brilliant team. I had to progressively sack the team until I myself got sacked with the business struggling to survive. I haven't seen my mid-70s parents since February with no expectation when that will change as thanks to lockdown / shielding there hasn't been a minute since where its legal for us to hug. I've seen my eldest have to scrap university for a year and mentally struggle. My younger kids spend months off school. I went mad and ended up finally on anti-depressants.
The upsides? Carpe Diem, Baby. We're selling up and moving to Scotland. Couldn't have happened without the significant change in how we live and work. So ambitions to run my own company and move to Scotland can now happen.
2021 has to be better than 2020.
Bro, you have been though the wringer, and come out clean with the wash. Carpe Diem, indeed.
Bon chance to you, Roach - whichever road ye take, ye'll be in Scotland afore me!
Now I've got old I find sleep comes earlier and leaves earlier! Although I've always been an early to bed and early to rise sort of person and, fortunately, I married a wife who has a similar body clock. Although she does sleep on abit longer in the mornings nowadays.
THOUGH do have to add, this is without doubt the best pic of NF yours truly has ever seen. He actually looks like a reasonably-normal human being! More than just that, a guy that you'd like to have a your party. At least until he started wearing a lampshade or chewing up the family crystal!
Now I've got old I find sleep comes earlier and leaves earlier! Although I've always been an early to bed and early to rise sort of person and, fortunately, I married a wife who has a similar body clock. Although she does sleep on abit longer in the mornings nowadays.
I'm the same. And being with someone with the opposite body clock is a recipe for trouble in my experience!
This 2021 is a bit dull so far. Up your game matey.
It was very BBC to put Alicia Keys on from Los Angeles. I watched a few minutes and gave up. Her voice was so strained it was painful. But she's black and the 50-something executives presumably like her so that's fine.
Jools Holland's Hootenay wasn't a lot better to be honest.
A drab start.
Rochdale P: I'm so sorry to hear your news and your struggles through the year. I hope your move to Scotland goes well and setting up new life there.
Mr. (Miss? Apologies, there are certain people (flowers and the colour blue) I keep forgetting) Rose, generally the elderly need less sleep than the young.
Ages ago I spent a weekend with my grandpa and his wife and was surprised that the getting up time on an off-day was so early. Maybe around six?
On the other hand, the salmon for breakfast was an unexpected bonus.
This 2021 is a bit dull so far. Up your game matey.
It was very BBC to put Alicia Keys on from Los Angeles. I watched a few minutes and gave up. Her voice was so strained it was painful. But she's black and the 50-something executives presumably like her so that's fine.
Jools Holland's Hootenay wasn't a lot better to be honest.
A drab start.
Rochdale P: I'm so sorry to hear your news and your struggles through the year. I hope your move to Scotland goes well and setting up new life there.
Mysticrose, I agree with you about Mr P. He's had a very tough year, and he deserves a better one this!
Now I've got old I find sleep comes earlier and leaves earlier! Although I've always been an early to bed and early to rise sort of person and, fortunately, I married a wife who has a similar body clock. Although she does sleep on abit longer in the mornings nowadays.
My mother is 89 and she seems to have the body clock of a student, sitting up until the small hours watching stuff on TV and then not surfacing until mid-morning
Thank you for the kind responses to my predictions. I'm amused that many think they're optimistic; hopefully after the year we have just had we deserve some optimistic stuff coming about.
Though I wasn't trying to be optimistic. I even have England losing the Ashes.
For a bit of context these predictions were submitted a few days ago, prior to a couple of other prediction threads that had already been submitted but not published yet and prior to Oxford's approval. I wouldn't change anything though, Oxford's approval was something I took for granted at the start of it.
I'm afraid I didn't read them Philip but I chose not to read anyone's predictions. 2020 was enough of a clusterfuck that I'm avoiding what people think may happen this year.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
2020 was a bad year in the Foxy household, with a number of adverse events including a major road traffic accident for Mrs Foxy, and significant disruption to the careers of both junior Foxys. One real pleasure though was time in the garden, and enough people and time at home to get a new dog. As you see in my profile pic, quite a foxy looking fellow 🦊
Now I've got old I find sleep comes earlier and leaves earlier! Although I've always been an early to bed and early to rise sort of person and, fortunately, I married a wife who has a similar body clock. Although she does sleep on abit longer in the mornings nowadays.
I'm normally in bed before 10 and up anytime from 4-6.30 - occasionally even earlier.
I had a good betting year in 2020 after a fairly disastrous 2019 when I let my heart and recency bias dominate.
My best bet last year was coming on Biden in the spreads at 261 ECVs when the election looked to be slipping away from him. I won on quite a few bets that night and lost on a few too but overall it was a good one. Still on Jon Ossoff at 3/1 but I'm not oozing confidence about it.
I sold out my Rishi Sunak bet. The odds were great but there have been too many uncertainties in the wind the past year so I decided to cash out.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
The factoid that some people seem to super-spread to numerous others, yet most carriers don't spread much at all, crops up often in articles like this, yet we don't seem to be much wiser as to why this is?
2020 was a bad year in the Foxy household, with a number of adverse events including a major road traffic accident for Mrs Foxy, and significant disruption to the careers of both junior Foxys. One real pleasure though was time in the garden, and enough people and time at home to get a new dog. As you see in my profile pic, quite a foxy looking fellow 🦊
What a cute dog. It's amazing how you can tell, just by looking, what he's thinking.
In this particular case, 'why are you making me sit on such a hideous rug'?
Any suggestions as to how to spend our first day of freedom? What can I do now that I couldn’t yesterday?
Since like me you're in Spain not much has changed. And the Spanish governement seems very keen on mutual recognition of skills, continuation of trade, health benefits, pensions, etc and other ties we can be fairly content. It's a pity it came to this but making the best of the situation is surely the best way to move forward. Maybe in time even closer relations are possible if both sides are willing.
Now I've got old I find sleep comes earlier and leaves earlier! Although I've always been an early to bed and early to rise sort of person and, fortunately, I married a wife who has a similar body clock. Although she does sleep on abit longer in the mornings nowadays.
I'm normally in bed before 10 and up anytime from 4-6.30 - occasionally even earlier.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
2020 was a bad year in the Foxy household, with a number of adverse events including a major road traffic accident for Mrs Foxy, and significant disruption to the careers of both junior Foxys. One real pleasure though was time in the garden, and enough people and time at home to get a new dog. As you see in my profile pic, quite a foxy looking fellow 🦊
What a cute dog. It's amazing how you can tell, just by looking, what he's thinking.
In this particular case, 'why are you making me sit on such a hideous rug'?
Mrs Foxy rules the roost on interior decoration so I dare not agree. It isn't so bad in the flesh...
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
Oh come now. I have numerous friends and contacts who are flagrantly disregarding the rules. For instance, a friend of mine casually dropped into the conversation yesterday evening that her daughter had just gone supermarket shopping in a car with another friend. They are in a tier 4 area.
And loads of people are not wearing masks. There's a widespread perception that you're safe outdoors which I strongly suspect is bollocks.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
Year 2 of the pandemic is going to be fucking lit. We'll look back on 2020 as the good old days.
I think Q1 will be very bad indeed. I do have concerns about using the Pfizer vaccine outside its established dosage, but for the AZN it seems reasonable.
There are enough vaccine sceptics, and will be enough breakthrough cases that normality will not be back until at least the summer.
My worry is that most of mainland Europe is yet to experience the full impact of the new strain. Valencia knows it’s at on a time bomb with really total lockdown the only trick left if cooperation from the public is poor. The level of policing last night was unprecedented and I hope many people decided to stay at home. The vaccine is being rolled out but unlikely to have a major impact if things aren’t contained. Tres Reyes to go followed by the sales, expect most to be cancelled. Unfortunately many British immigrants think their lives can go on uninterrupted with group meals out, quizzes and bingo going ahead without disruption. They’ve got away with it so far but it will only take one or two cases to reek havoc ina group comprising mainly 70+ year olds.
I’ll continue to stay in unless where I’m going is empty, leaving the hospital as the most dangerous outing.
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
Yes. We are at least here, and dismissing eye witness evidence as "anecdote" is a hallmark of the half-educated.
And this guy is "the news" anyway if you trouble to read his profile.
Man going somewhere in London sees other people going somewhere in London is hardly news. And mask compliance has never been higher in the shops near me in London, it is a long time since I saw a maskless shopper.
Any suggestions as to how to spend our first day of freedom? What can I do now that I couldn’t yesterday?
Since like me you're in Spain not much has changed. And the Spanish governement seems very keen on mutual recognition of skills, continuation of trade, health benefits, pensions, etc and other ties we can be fairly content. It's a pity it came to this but making the best of the situation is surely the best way to move forward. Maybe in time even closer relations are possible if both sides are willing.
The spanish government have been very level heade d about the whole thing, we are crucial to the economy,especially on the coast. They have just got on with it despite the political make up of the executive. They even will give those who still haven’t got residency time to do so. I see no evidence of any personal animosity to the decision to leave as I have just posted I think they have bigger problems heding towards us.
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
Yes. We are at least here, and dismissing eye witness evidence as "anecdote" is a hallmark of the half-educated.
And this guy is "the news" anyway if you trouble to read his profile.
Man going somewhere in London sees other people going somewhere in London is hardly news. And mask compliance has never been higher in the shops near me in London, it is a long time since I saw a maskless shopper.
Happy new year all!
I was in Kingston upon Thames a couple of weeks ago and I would say fewer than a third were mask wearing. As for the Bentalls shopping centre: I was horrified. Absolutely no one way system or method for distancing shoppers from one another.
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
Yes. We are at least here, and dismissing eye witness evidence as "anecdote" is a hallmark of the half-educated.
And this guy is "the news" anyway if you trouble to read his profile.
He is indeed the journalist responsible for the muckraking about Cliff Richard which cost the BBC a pretty penny. So yes believe anything he writes without even a grain of salt.
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
Yes. We are at least here, and dismissing eye witness evidence as "anecdote" is a hallmark of the half-educated.
And this guy is "the news" anyway if you trouble to read his profile.
He is indeed the journalist responsible for the muckraking about Cliff Richard which cost the BBC a pretty penny. So yes believe anything he writes without even a grain of salt.
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
Yes. We are at least here, and dismissing eye witness evidence as "anecdote" is a hallmark of the half-educated.
And this guy is "the news" anyway if you trouble to read his profile.
He is indeed the journalist responsible for the muckraking about Cliff Richard which cost the BBC a pretty penny. So yes believe anything he writes without even a grain of salt.
My worry is that most of mainland Europe is yet to experience the full impact of the new strain. Valencia knows it’s at on a time bomb with really total lockdown the only trick left if cooperation from the public is poor. The level of policing last night was unprecedented and I hope many people decided to stay at home. The vaccine is being rolled out but unlikely to have a major impact if things aren’t contained. Tres Reyes to go followed by the sales, expect most to be cancelled. Unfortunately many British immigrants think their lives can go on uninterrupted with group meals out, quizzes and bingo going ahead without disruption. They’ve got away with it so far but it will only take one or two cases to reek havoc ina group comprising mainly 70+ year olds.
I’ll continue to stay in unless where I’m going is empty, leaving the hospital as the most dangerous outing.
Have to say that the very slow rollout of the vaccine in most of mainland Europe is incomprehensible given where we are - here in Spain on the cusp of a third wave.
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
Yes. We are at least here, and dismissing eye witness evidence as "anecdote" is a hallmark of the half-educated.
And this guy is "the news" anyway if you trouble to read his profile.
He is indeed the journalist responsible for the muckraking about Cliff Richard which cost the BBC a pretty penny. So yes believe anything he writes without even a grain of salt.
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
Yes. We are at least here, and dismissing eye witness evidence as "anecdote" is a hallmark of the half-educated.
And this guy is "the news" anyway if you trouble to read his profile.
He is indeed the journalist responsible for the muckraking about Cliff Richard which cost the BBC a pretty penny. So yes believe anything he writes without even a grain of salt.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
The factoid that some people seem to super-spread to numerous others, yet most carriers don't spread much at all, crops up often in articles like this, yet we don't seem to be much wiser as to why this is?
If the vaccine reduces transmission we should try to get those people first...
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
Oh come now. I have numerous friends and contacts who are flagrantly disregarding the rules. For instance, a friend of mine casually dropped into the conversation yesterday evening that her daughter had just gone supermarket shopping in a car with another friend. They are in a tier 4 area.
And loads of people are not wearing masks. There's a widespread perception that you're safe outdoors which I strongly suspect is bollocks.
And people travelling about the country, when they are supposed to remain at home.
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
Oh come now. I have numerous friends and contacts who are flagrantly disregarding the rules. For instance, a friend of mine casually dropped into the conversation yesterday evening that her daughter had just gone supermarket shopping in a car with another friend. They are in a tier 4 area.
And loads of people are not wearing masks. There's a widespread perception that you're safe outdoors which I strongly suspect is bollocks.
That's the point -- they are outdoors. Whether or not they are safe, the guidance is that masks are not needed in the open air, so people not wearing masks are not breaking the rules and are not Covid-sceptics.
Going to the supermarket in someone else's car in a tier 4 area. It's one of those anomalous areas. It is not allowed *unless* that someone else is in your support bubble or is a cab driver. And of course the (allowed) cab driver will meet and chauffeur far more passengers than your daughter's mate. It is an anomaly but such an obvious one that I'm surprised the guidelines do not mention it (and allow the odd trip to the shops).
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
The guy is the news...he is a BBC journalist.
Yes - tell Cliff Richard not me.
I'd forgotten he was the one. A thoroughly disgraceful business so I can see why you would dismiss anything he ever writes again.
We should extend the same to Tom Watson.
I am sure he saw what he saw but anecdotes are not necessarily a picture of reality. Twitter is fun at times but it no more reflects the public mood than a lot of political reality. I remember some of the images of the Trump inauguration fondly to remind me just how misleading these things can be.
Happy New Year everyone. Am I the only one who thinks 2020 hasn't been all bad? And the one who doesn't like cheese either?
Got to admit I had a fantastic 2020 on a personal level. I got to work from home for the whole year instead of having to live in hotels all round the world on contracts. I do truly hate hotels. And still did more work and got more achieved for clients than I normally would - mostly because we got rid of the interminable meetings. This meant that I was able to spend far more time with my family and real quality time as well.
I also loved the first lockdown when there was no traffic on the roads, the air was clearer, the stars brighter at night and there was an all pervasive natural silence that made you realise what we have lost in the modern world with its constant background hum of noise. As a result I followed the inspiration of MarqueeMark of this parish and got a moth trap. So now I am addicted to a whole new hobby.
My son thrived not having to be at school and came on in leaps and bounds. So much so that we got congratulations from the school about how much he had both matured and improved educationally. And no we didn't spend all our time helping him. We just let him get on with stuff at his own pace and explained stuff to him when he had stuff he didn't understand. I was actually feeling guilty about how little we felt we had helped until we realised how much his education had improved.
But.. and there has to be a big but. We lost 2 people I knew pretty well - one the brother of my business partner and one a friend of my Mum's - to the dreaded virus. And I would genuinely give up every minute of the wonderful year I have had to have them back again.
Edit: and just to add I hope every one of you has a good a 2021 as I had 2020 - without the dreaded Covid of course.
Apologise to your family from me about the moths thing....but best wishes to you for at least a county first in 2021.
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
Oh come now. I have numerous friends and contacts who are flagrantly disregarding the rules. For instance, a friend of mine casually dropped into the conversation yesterday evening that her daughter had just gone supermarket shopping in a car with another friend. They are in a tier 4 area.
And loads of people are not wearing masks. There's a widespread perception that you're safe outdoors which I strongly suspect is bollocks.
That's the point -- they are outdoors. Whether or not they are safe, the guidance is that masks are not needed in the open air, so people not wearing masks are not breaking the rules and are not Covid-sceptics.
Going to the supermarket in someone else's car in a tier 4 area. It's one of those anomalous areas. It is not allowed *unless* that someone else is in your support bubble or is a cab driver. And of course the (allowed) cab driver will meet and chauffeur far more passengers than your daughter's mate. It is an anomaly but such an obvious one that I'm surprised the guidelines do not mention it (and allow the odd trip to the shops).
No they weren't in a support bubble. Nothing anomalous about it. They acted illegally.
We think we are so f-ing superior in this country but we really aren't. We should all be wearing masks outdoors routinely. Yes it's annoying, although that does pass and you soon get used to it. I've worn mine outdoors every day since I bought it in January (washable before anyone asks). We should take our lead from Asia on this.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
The factoid that some people seem to super-spread to numerous others, yet most carriers don't spread much at all, crops up often in articles like this, yet we don't seem to be much wiser as to why this is?
If the vaccine reduces transmission we should try to get those people first...
There is an interesting link in the Atlantic article to a paper on the Moderna vaccine reducing transmission after the first dose. Not very big, and needs confirming, but a straw in the wind that I am willing to clutch at.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
Had to venture out to take wife to hospital, the roads were packed in tier 4. The McDonalds we passed people were queuing around the block. Very different to the first lockdown.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The news and Police reports were much less gloomy - still anyone with an agenda and anecdote to match is clearly much more reliable.
Oh come now. I have numerous friends and contacts who are flagrantly disregarding the rules. For instance, a friend of mine casually dropped into the conversation yesterday evening that her daughter had just gone supermarket shopping in a car with another friend. They are in a tier 4 area.
And loads of people are not wearing masks. There's a widespread perception that you're safe outdoors which I strongly suspect is bollocks.
That's the point -- they are outdoors. Whether or not they are safe, the guidance is that masks are not needed in the open air, so people not wearing masks are not breaking the rules and are not Covid-sceptics.
Going to the supermarket in someone else's car in a tier 4 area. It's one of those anomalous areas. It is not allowed *unless* that someone else is in your support bubble or is a cab driver. And of course the (allowed) cab driver will meet and chauffeur far more passengers than your daughter's mate. It is an anomaly but such an obvious one that I'm surprised the guidelines do not mention it (and allow the odd trip to the shops).
No they weren't in a support bubble. Nothing anomalous about it. They acted illegally.
We think we are so f-ing superior in this country but we really aren't. We should all be wearing masks outdoors routinely. Yes it's annoying, although that does pass and you soon get used to it. I've worn mine outdoors every day since I bought it in January (washable before anyone asks). We should take our lead from Asia on this.
I do agree and they've been compulsory here for months but alone they do not prevent waves of infection. I am deeply frustrated here by the slowness of the vaccine rollout which just makes no sense.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
Grim news. I thought my prediction of as many UK deaths in 2021 was worst case...
They seem more confident about vaccine reducing transmission. In that case we have got to change prioritization.
One area where UK will be world leading - if this new protocol works well, everyone is going to follow our example.
To counter increased transmissability, the government should tear up its priority list working down the age groups and instead take the vaccine to where the people are, workplaces, colleges and shopping centres. The logistics will be easier than chasing up house-bound oldies, which is a bonus.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
Grim news. I thought my prediction of as many UK deaths in 2021 was worst case...
They seem more confident about vaccine reducing transmission. In that case we have got to change prioritization.
One area where UK will be world leading - if this new protocol works well, everyone is going to follow our example.
To counter increased transmissability, the government should tear up its priority list working down the age groups and instead take the vaccine to where the people are, workplaces, colleges and shopping centres. The logistics will be easier than chasing up house-bound oldies, which is a bonus.
I think there is widespread public support for the current priority list and the speed up over the next few weeks should make a difference. A major shake up of the plans would simply provoke more of the endles bickering.
I see NYC actually had an event last night. Trump has been pretty useless throughout, but it should be remembered that the state and city politicians have been equally culpable.
p.s. and cab drivers and pax have to wear masks. Most pax also sit in the back. I feel safer in an uber than I do walking around my local shops.
The anomaly is that cab rides are within the rules but that lifts from friends (unless they are in your support bubble) are not, despite that being less risky.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
Yes, Nate Silver made a fool of himself on Twitter by not understanding what the exponential increase in number of cases would mean due to the new strain. He thought it was a linear increase.
as someone who presents himself as a "numbers guy" he's made a complete hash of understanding the maths behind infections disease repeatedly over the last year,
The Football Association has suspended Edinson Cavani for three games and fined Manchester United’s Uruguay striker £100,000 for his use of the word “negrito” in a social media post.
Cavani has received the same football punishment for a social media post as he'd get for a leg breaking tackle. Completely mad.
p.s. and cab drivers and pax have to wear masks. Most pax also sit in the back. I feel safer in an uber than I do walking around my local shops.
The anomaly is that cab rides are within the rules but that lifts from friends (unless they are in your support bubble) are not, despite that being less risky.
Nothing anomalous about that.
Taxi lifts are permitted but pax and driver must wear masks. Most pax sit in the back and, in the case of uber, they're hot on disinfectant. You can't readily ban taxi rides as they are essential for some people especially the elderly.
Getting into the front seat of a friend's car, without a mask I hasten to add, and then walking into a supermarket together is against the rules. And crazy behaviour.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
The factoid that some people seem to super-spread to numerous others, yet most carriers don't spread much at all, crops up often in articles like this, yet we don't seem to be much wiser as to why this is?
If the vaccine reduces transmission we should try to get those people first...
One problem is that we don't know who they are.
The mutation is to one arm of the spike protein hence vaccines and antibodies should work at least on the other arm. Ominously the South African mutation is on both arms. AZN has a trial there, so important to look at how the vaccine protects against that new strain.
Maybe though the increased infectivity of the new variation is to increase the proportion of cases that act as super spreaders. If that changed from 20% to 30% it would do it.
I don't think @Mysticrose is right on a change in aerosol spread. The physical change in the virus is not enough for that. I think though that aerosolisation has been generally under recognised as a form of spread.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
The factoid that some people seem to super-spread to numerous others, yet most carriers don't spread much at all, crops up often in articles like this, yet we don't seem to be much wiser as to why this is?
It seems a bizarrely under researched (or at least if the research is happening underreported) part of this pandemic. Church choirs, meat packing plants - massive super spreader events. What are the common factors? THen can we cut those common factors out of day to day activities please.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
Very powerful? You mean less powerful. You would have to go centuries back to find England in a weaker position. And who says the Balkanisation would stop there?
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
The factoid that some people seem to super-spread to numerous others, yet most carriers don't spread much at all, crops up often in articles like this, yet we don't seem to be much wiser as to why this is?
If the vaccine reduces transmission we should try to get those people first...
I don't think @Mysticrose is right on a change in aerosol spread. The physical change in the virus is not enough for that. I think though that aerosolisation has been generally under recognised as a form of spread.
Yep. I didn't want to be contentious by proposing that the original virus also readily spreads outdoors. But I'm pretty convinced it does.
p.s. and cab drivers and pax have to wear masks. Most pax also sit in the back. I feel safer in an uber than I do walking around my local shops.
The anomaly is that cab rides are within the rules but that lifts from friends (unless they are in your support bubble) are not, despite that being less risky.
Nothing anomalous about that.
Taxi lifts are permitted but pax and driver must wear masks. Most pax sit in the back and, in the case of uber, they're hot on disinfectant. You can't readily ban taxi rides as they are essential for some people especially the elderly.
Getting into the front seat of a friend's car, without a mask I hasten to add, and then walking into a supermarket together is against the rules. And crazy behaviour.
There's no anomaly about it.
I think we are using the word anomaly to mean different things.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
No, I don't think so. If people freely choose self determination, I wish them well. The days we suppress independence movements by force of arms should be long since consigned to the history books.
We need two things above all else this year: 1. A speedy and successful roll-out of the vaccine. 2. An end to the very deep divisions that currently exist in this country. Both are in the hands of the government. That has to be a concern.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
I agree wrt Scotland but the NI anomaly is really just that. If they could get along a single united Irelandis not a catastrophe at all.
We’re in serious danger of ending up with an English state.
Certainly possible and it would make little sense but at least I'm clear that England alone would be a very powerful and viable force, economically, politically, culturally and socially. A Federated outcome of some sort would be preferable certainly.
The danger of England alone is that it will be a country born out of rejection and so angry with itself and with others.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
I for one would welcome a united Ireland [though hopefully not led into it by SF] possible more so than the Republican government. The north brings with it many deep-rooted, complex and intransigent problems.
The break up of the UK is a catastrophe.
Really? Is that how you describe it when two friends get divorced, because one has found someone they think better suited to them? Disappointing, a sense of regret maybe. But also "good luck to them", hope it makes the pain of the break-up all worthwhile.
If someone wants out, no point in stopping them for the sake of a nice flag.
Brexit is weird. Gibraltar in Schengen, a border in the Irish Sea and relations with Scotland weaker than ever. And yet they celebrate. Weird.
I wonder if we'll be lumping Gibraltar Monaco, San Marino Andorra etc together, as 'small associated states of the EU' by the end of the year. And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister. And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
It wouldn't surprise me. They don't even need to join the EU, just the parts of the EEA and CU that are relevant. The simple reality is that whatever independence countries want - and in the case of these states its that they exist - we all need to co-operate on the basics like trade.
Its the UK approach that is daft. Which is why we are already shedding chunks of ourselves.
As an aside, our moron Metro Mayor says that because we have quit Europe that its an insult that we still have a "Council of Europe Boulevard". That a Tory leaver doesn't know the difference between the Council of Europe and the European Union surprises no-one.
p.s. and cab drivers and pax have to wear masks. Most pax also sit in the back. I feel safer in an uber than I do walking around my local shops.
The anomaly is that cab rides are within the rules but that lifts from friends (unless they are in your support bubble) are not, despite that being less risky.
Nothing anomalous about that.
Taxi lifts are permitted but pax and driver must wear masks. Most pax sit in the back and, in the case of uber, they're hot on disinfectant. You can't readily ban taxi rides as they are essential for some people especially the elderly.
Getting into the front seat of a friend's car, without a mask I hasten to add, and then walking into a supermarket together is against the rules. And crazy behaviour.
There's no anomaly about it.
I think we are using the word anomaly to mean different things.
Well where I totally disagree with you is your contention that normal lifts are safer. No way. My friend's daughter and her driver friend were maskless and sitting together in the front. Which is how most people give lifts to one another.
A taxi driver, let's stick to uber, has to disinfect their car every morning. They have hand sanitiser for the passenger. Both driver and pax are required to wear masks and normally the pax sits in the back. When you book you have to acknowledge and accept these rules.
I've taken several uber rides during this virus when I've had to and have felt very safe.
My friend's daughter's behaviour is typical of what's going on.
Comments
Wouldn't be so sure!
THOUGH do have to add, this is without doubt the best pic of NF yours truly has ever seen. He actually looks like a reasonably-normal human being! More than just that, a guy that you'd like to have a your party. At least until he started wearing a lampshade or chewing up the family crystal!
Up your game matey.
BECAUSE they at loooooooooooog last finally built AND opened a PRIMARY SEWAGE PLANT!
So say below to that beloved symbol of Victoria, one (in same league as High Tea at the Empress or a ramble though Butchart Gardens) famous Mr. Floaty
The upsides? Carpe Diem, Baby. We're selling up and moving to Scotland. Couldn't have happened without the significant change in how we live and work. So ambitions to run my own company and move to Scotland can now happen.
2021 has to be better than 2020.
Re: PT's excellent contribution, well, I've always pegged you as a glass-half-full kinda guy. May your cup and that of all good (and bad) PBers runneth over!
Quick question: when I was a kid, me, my sisters and parents would celebrate New Years Eve approx 9pm, by baning on pots and pans. This was organized by my mother, clearly she'd done this a a kid herself. We then lived in Eastern Time Zone so the ball dropping in Times Square was THE moment. But it was years before we made it that late.
Back then we didn't know or think about what people in the rest of the world were doing. except to know they were doing it earlier or later than us - rather pointless factoid.
Bon chance to you, Roach - whichever road ye take, ye'll be in Scotland afore me!
Like when the old Keystone State put Joe Biden over the top . . . and made Donald Trump the Biggest Loser.
"You're fired!"
My prime aim for 2021; to get to 2022!
Spare a thought for those in the NHS ICUs who have worked through the night.
https://www.facebook.com/SenatorSasse/posts/3517705981660655
Jools Holland's Hootenay wasn't a lot better to be honest.
A drab start.
Rochdale P: I'm so sorry to hear your news and your struggles through the year. I hope your move to Scotland goes well and setting up new life there.
Mr. (Miss? Apologies, there are certain people (flowers and the colour blue) I keep forgetting) Rose, generally the elderly need less sleep than the young.
Ages ago I spent a weekend with my grandpa and his wife and was surprised that the getting up time on an off-day was so early. Maybe around six?
On the other hand, the salmon for breakfast was an unexpected bonus.
How are your Sturgeon to Resign in 2020 bets doing?
You absolute credulous chumps
Thank you for the kind responses to my predictions. I'm amused that many think they're optimistic; hopefully after the year we have just had we deserve some optimistic stuff coming about.
Though I wasn't trying to be optimistic. I even have England losing the Ashes.
For a bit of context these predictions were submitted a few days ago, prior to a couple of other prediction threads that had already been submitted but not published yet and prior to Oxford's approval. I wouldn't change anything though, Oxford's approval was something I took for granted at the start of it.
Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.
My only regret was leaping on the other side of bet to early. I should have waited longer for the dumb money to push No way out.
Still, can't say no to an opportunity to be a smug c**t. The thread from 2020 is hilarious.
It beggars belief. But then Johnson has been preoccupied with Brexit.
I have been waking up at 0630 all my working life, and my internal alarm clock does that at weekends and Bank holidays too.
Grim article in the Atlantic on the new variant covid. This bit on the maths gave me a shock.
"To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time."
https://twitter.com/AdrienneLaF/status/1344708609473728514?s=19
My best bet last year was coming on Biden in the spreads at 261 ECVs when the election looked to be slipping away from him. I won on quite a few bets that night and lost on a few too but overall it was a good one. Still on Jon Ossoff at 3/1 but I'm not oozing confidence about it.
I sold out my Rishi Sunak bet. The odds were great but there have been too many uncertainties in the wind the past year so I decided to cash out.
In this particular case, 'why are you making me sit on such a hideous rug'?
And loads of people are not wearing masks. There's a widespread perception that you're safe outdoors which I strongly suspect is bollocks.
And this guy is "the news" anyway if you trouble to read his profile.
There are enough vaccine sceptics, and will be enough breakthrough cases that normality will not be back until at least the summer.
Look at these examples from the USA and despair.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1344798298872406019?s=19
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1344896068752961536?s=19
I’ll continue to stay in unless where I’m going is empty, leaving the hospital as the most dangerous outing.
It's a working theory, that's all. I've spent a lot of time in Asia where masks are routinely worn outdoors.
I think they should be mandatory in the UK until we're on top of this.
Happy new year all!
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/16/cliff-richard-damages-case-high-court-bbc-reporter
We should extend the same to Tom Watson.
They seem more confident about vaccine reducing transmission. In that case we have got to change prioritization.
One area where UK will be world leading - if this new protocol works well, everyone is going to follow our example.
And I suspect the next Northern Irish elections will result in losses for hard-line Unionists and gains for parties like Alliance and SDLP, which could just mean a SF First Minister.
And as there'll be no Unionist alliance in Scotland the SNP will walk home. Indeed I wonder whether, if the LD's nationally adopt a very pro-EU (not necessarily Rejoin) line they'll have a revival ind Scotland.
Going to the supermarket in someone else's car in a tier 4 area. It's one of those anomalous areas. It is not allowed *unless* that someone else is in your support bubble or is a cab driver. And of course the (allowed) cab driver will meet and chauffeur far more passengers than your daughter's mate. It is an anomaly but such an obvious one that I'm surprised the guidelines do not mention it (and allow the odd trip to the shops).
We think we are so f-ing superior in this country but we really aren't. We should all be wearing masks outdoors routinely. Yes it's annoying, although that does pass and you soon get used to it. I've worn mine outdoors every day since I bought it in January (washable before anyone asks). We should take our lead from Asia on this.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/sen-perdue-quarantines-virus-exposure-ahead-ga-runoff-74995238?cid=clicksource_4380645_2_heads_hero_live_headlines_hed
as someone who presents himself as a "numbers guy" he's made a complete hash of understanding the maths behind infections disease repeatedly over the last year,
The Football Association has suspended Edinson Cavani for three games and fined Manchester United’s Uruguay striker £100,000 for his use of the word “negrito” in a social media post.
Cavani has received the same football punishment for a social media post as he'd get for a leg breaking tackle. Completely mad.
Taxi lifts are permitted but pax and driver must wear masks. Most pax sit in the back and, in the case of uber, they're hot on disinfectant. You can't readily ban taxi rides as they are essential for some people especially the elderly.
Getting into the front seat of a friend's car, without a mask I hasten to add, and then walking into a supermarket together is against the rules. And crazy behaviour.
There's no anomaly about it.
The mutation is to one arm of the spike protein hence vaccines and antibodies should work at least on the other arm. Ominously the South African mutation is on both arms. AZN has a trial there, so important to look at how the vaccine protects against that new strain.
Maybe though the increased infectivity of the new variation is to increase the proportion of cases that act as super spreaders. If that changed from 20% to 30% it would do it.
I don't think @Mysticrose is right on a change in aerosol spread. The physical change in the virus is not enough for that. I think though that aerosolisation has been generally under recognised as a form of spread.
1. A speedy and successful roll-out of the vaccine.
2. An end to the very deep divisions that currently exist in this country.
Both are in the hands of the government. That has to be a concern.
You can now smoke in pubs, buy C-4 in Argos and shoot a Latvian with a longbow.
If someone wants out, no point in stopping them for the sake of a nice flag.
Its the UK approach that is daft. Which is why we are already shedding chunks of ourselves.
As an aside, our moron Metro Mayor says that because we have quit Europe that its an insult that we still have a "Council of Europe Boulevard". That a Tory leaver doesn't know the difference between the Council of Europe and the European Union surprises no-one.
A taxi driver, let's stick to uber, has to disinfect their car every morning. They have hand sanitiser for the passenger. Both driver and pax are required to wear masks and normally the pax sits in the back. When you book you have to acknowledge and accept these rules.
I've taken several uber rides during this virus when I've had to and have felt very safe.
My friend's daughter's behaviour is typical of what's going on.