Embarrassing more like, we now need charity from Ireland, how the tables have turned.
It’s not charity. They have decided to extend a benefit they provide to RoI citizens in RoI to dual citizens in NI. They then decided (for simplicity or just to irritate the DUP) to extend it to U.K.-only citizens in NI
Sticking in unionists craws though, first UNICEF helping out with starving children , now the Irish who they are always slagging off as poor country hicks providing charity in NI.
Yes, it’s very embarrassing for UNICEF to help children in London.
It is disgraceful that we can’t feed children properly, but it isn’t just a unionist problem.
Unionists control it from London , despite the best efforts of Scottish Government using some of their meagre pocket money to alleviate poverty , they have no chance of overcoming London policies. You just cannot get your head round or understand what "Powers Reserved to London" means do you.
You mean, like a second referendum?
Or is that a power that’s somehow magically not reserved to London, because only when the SNP have failed in something is it London’s fault?
I mean like any meaningful power, you unionists are shit scared to allow a referendum, despite constantly telling u show poor , stupid , etc we are and unable to look after ourselves. The buck stops in London , they are in control.
Ummm...again, Malc, I have always said that an SNP majority next year should lead to another referendum.
Unfortunately, what you and others here are demonstrating is that Scotsnats literally have passed reason. You don’t care what facts are, you just twist or invent them to suit your agenda. You are reminding me, right now, very much of Donald Trump.
My suspicion is that as a result Scotland will do a Brexit-style departure from the UK, on the back of a number of these twisted facts becoming impossible promises, and at the end when Nats are celebrating ‘freedom’ everyone else will be wondering if the marginal gain in independence was worth the cost.
I'm surprised you use Trump as an example of twisting facts when a more glaring and odious example is so much closer to home.
Roger, I think you've jumped the shark if you think there is someone more odious than Trump.
Well, there are several, in fact. But Kim Jong Un, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are fortunately not significantly closer to my home.
Guessing you're not a geography teacher in your spare time?
Moscow is significantly closed to your home than Washington DC.
Geography? Isn’t that the subject where you colour in camels?
I was speaking figuratively rather than literally.
Embarrassing more like, we now need charity from Ireland, how the tables have turned.
It’s not charity. They have decided to extend a benefit they provide to RoI citizens in RoI to dual citizens in NI. They then decided (for simplicity or just to irritate the DUP) to extend it to U.K.-only citizens in NI
Sticking in unionists craws though, first UNICEF helping out with starving children , now the Irish who they are always slagging off as poor country hicks providing charity in NI.
Yes, it’s very embarrassing for UNICEF to help children in London.
It is disgraceful that we can’t feed children properly, but it isn’t just a unionist problem.
Unionists control it from London , despite the best efforts of Scottish Government using some of their meagre pocket money to alleviate poverty , they have no chance of overcoming London policies. You just cannot get your head round or understand what "Powers Reserved to London" means do you.
You mean, like a second referendum?
Or is that a power that’s somehow magically not reserved to London, because only when the SNP have failed in something is it London’s fault?
I mean like any meaningful power, you unionists are shit scared to allow a referendum, despite constantly telling u show poor , stupid , etc we are and unable to look after ourselves. The buck stops in London , they are in control.
Ummm...again, Malc, I have always said that an SNP majority next year should lead to another referendum.
Unfortunately, what you and others here are demonstrating is that Scotsnats literally have passed reason. You don’t care what facts are, you just twist or invent them to suit your agenda. You are reminding me, right now, very much of Donald Trump.
My suspicion is that as a result Scotland will do a Brexit-style departure from the UK, on the back of a number of these twisted facts becoming impossible promises, and at the end when Nats are celebrating ‘freedom’ everyone else will be wondering if the marginal gain in independence was worth the cost.
I'm surprised you use Trump as an example of twisting facts when a more glaring and odious example is so much closer to home.
Roger, I think you've jumped the shark if you think there is someone more odious than Trump.
Well, there are several, in fact. But Kim Jong Un, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are fortunately not significantly closer to my home.
I thought that as soon as I pushed send, but was really thinking of politicians in western democracies as the peer group. I general I prefer to avoid superlatives as someone will always one-up you.
Come on lads, prove Sir John wrong, you know you want to (plus there's a chance history may not remember you as snivelling cowardy custards without the courage of your convictions).
My surgery has just contacted me to make an appointment for the jab at 2pm tomorrow and a second jab on Jan 20th.
Wow - that's fast and efficient. I'm in the 75-80 cohort. I think the over 80s are all jabbed here.
My mother has just been contacted this morning. She is in the 75 - 80 cohort but is being pulled in early as she is a volunteer hospital chaplain. She has her first jab on Sunday 3rd and second on Sunday 24th.
Nothing yet. The local surgery 'knows nothing' and the number I've been given for the local vaccination service just rings and no-one answers. An ex colleague, who is in a position to have a good knowledge of the situation just says 'it's fast-moving' and to wait. I do, though, know of two people, both older and more at risk than me, who've been done.
The Deal should now pass comfortably then whatever Labour do given the Tory majority of 80, Labour support simply ensures it passes with a landslide Commons vote.
Labour therefore voting for something Bill Cash and the ERG really really like.
Politics eh. Complex and dirty game. Glad I only have to observe rather than play.
Of course it is - on all sides - what kills the left so often is the pretence that they're above it all. One of the reasons they hate Blair more than almost any Tory politician.
That is not evidence, it is anecdotal bullsh8t. It also does not refute Young's claim.
Um, no, A says that x is evidence that x. The problem is innumerate twits who misunderstand and then over-generalise some special rules which apply to medical interventions only, and think that Toby Young's utterances are exempt from those rules anyway.
Young's data is compiled from the NHS's own numbers and nobody has come up with a set of numbers to refute it.
Just shrill anecdotal alarmism
Show us the numbers.
This the tweet, note the date he's using to make the comparison.
(also doesn't take into account that not every Covid-19 patient is in ICU at the moment, there's HDUs as well.)
Cases are increasing by about 1/4 to 1/3 every week. As ICU is proportional to that, it suggests they are just about hitting capacity now. There won't be enough beds in a couple of weeks time.
Edit on Toby's actual point. There are more beds available now, so the Trust directors may well be telling the truth that they are treating more patients even if occupancy is slightly lower.
Further point again, not all ICU is in A&E. I suspect most intensive COVID treatment isn't happening in A&E
A few small points come to mind - Foxy to the courtesy phone, etc
- What is at the actual capacity then and now? I do not find it inconceivable that the number of ICU beds has been increased this year - Staffing - numbers then and now. A hospital bed without nurses and doctors is a rather expensive... bed. Are we talking about staffing levels vs bed numbers? - The bed occupancy numbers etc nationally are waiting for an update for over the Christmas period. This should be today.
My surgery has just contacted me to make an appointment for the jab at 2pm tomorrow and a second jab on Jan 20th.
Wow - that's fast and efficient. I'm in the 75-80 cohort. I think the over 80s are all jabbed here.
My mother has just been contacted this morning. She is in the 75 - 80 cohort but is being pulled in early as she is a volunteer hospital chaplain. She has her first jab on Sunday 3rd and second on Sunday 24th.
Nothing yet. The local surgery 'knows nothing' and the number I've been given for the local vaccination service just rings and no-one answers. An ex colleague, who is in a position to have a good knowledge of the situation just says 'it's fast-moving' and to wait. I do, though, know of two people, both older and more at risk than me, who've been done.
Think I might complain to my MP, one P Patel.
Anecdote alert - one local GP has been extremely active in this. Another, who went missing in March, has surfaced online to say they won't be doing the vaccine - because it is a complicated.
My surgery has just contacted me to make an appointment for the jab at 2pm tomorrow and a second jab on Jan 20th.
Wow - that's fast and efficient. I'm in the 75-80 cohort. I think the over 80s are all jabbed here.
My mother has just been contacted this morning. She is in the 75 - 80 cohort but is being pulled in early as she is a volunteer hospital chaplain. She has her first jab on Sunday 3rd and second on Sunday 24th.
Nothing yet. The local surgery 'knows nothing' and the number I've been given for the local vaccination service just rings and no-one answers. An ex colleague, who is in a position to have a good knowledge of the situation just says 'it's fast-moving' and to wait. I do, though, know of two people, both older and more at risk than me, who've been done.
Think I might complain to my MP, one P Patel.
I understand your anxiety - I'm 66 and unlikely to see anything in Spain much before April/May - maybe a bit too soon to be panicking.
The Deal should now pass comfortably then whatever Labour do given the Tory majority of 80, Labour support simply ensures it passes with a landslide Commons vote.
Labour therefore voting for something Bill Cash and the ERG really really like.
Politics eh. Complex and dirty game. Glad I only have to observe rather than play.
Labour need to make the case for damage limitation. Politically not an easy case to make. Leavers don't think there is any damage to limit, or if there is, it's not their fault, while Remainers voted precisely to avoid the damage in the first place and don't see why they should be involved.
Tories are in their comfort zone on Brexit. Labour should be making that zone a lot more uncomfortable.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
What a load of rubbish.
The financial services sector voted Remain mainly anyway, as did London.
However this Canada style deal is exactly what Leave voting regions from the Midlands to Wales, to the North and East and SouthWest of England were voting for. It avoids tariffs on goods, ends free movement, ends ECJ jurisdiction and regains sovereignty and enables us to do our own trade deals and reclaims some UK waters for UK fishermen.
If the financial sector finds it has not got its own way for once for most Leavers the response will be simple, tough.
Indeed after the referendum a Canada style Deal was the most popular form of Brexit, backed by 50% of voters to just 24% opposed
And that's a perfectly ok position for Leavers to take provided they are willing to pay the taxes the financial sector previously paid. Or to go without the services those taxes paid for if they aren't.
You wouldn't want us thinking that they are in "cake and eat it" mode now, would you.
I think this year will be quite brutal in terms of Corporation tax, as the first shutdown will show in the returns from the end of this month.
My own company return goes in in January, with a tax bill half of last year with 10/12 months were pre lockdown. It will be near zero the following year. Personal tax receipts will only show a major drop in Jan 22.
The combination of Sunak's spending spree, covid impact on receipts and Brexit is going to make a massive hole in government finances. There ain't going to be much going on in the Red Wall apart from austerity.
While there will certainly be many negatives yet to work their way through the system it is important to distinguish between temporarily drops (which realistically are going to be borrowed and never repaid except via Quantitative Easing) and permanent ones which hit the structural deficit that will need to be eliminated in the post-pandemic boom.
Temporary disruptions like this one will occur but won't be structural. They will hit our debt figures and may lead to further QE before this is over - but they're not structural. It is structural changes that are far more damning.
People always like to claim the deficit isn't structural, especially when it is.
The structural changes in the economy due to covid and Brexit will lead to a structural deficit.
Oh absolutely there will be a structural deficit that will need fixing but what that is won't be clear until we're back to normal.
Your own company having a "near zero" Corporation Tax bill - is that going to be temporary or permanent?
The structural deficit will take years to fix, but lets not pretend that every element of the deficit currently is structural, leave that nonsense for the likes of contrarian.
There’s always both a structural and a cyclical element to government revenues during a recession.
The true structural elements are the revenues lost from the businesses that aren’t going to bounce back - train companies, VAT from coffee shops in central London, business rates on premium office space, a fair bit of high street retail in the larger towns and cities, fuel tax and so on.
What really takes the biscuit though is in Scotland, where NHS back office staff, ie that are not in anyway working in clincal settings, have apprently been bumping the queue registering themselves for getting the vaccine. Really? Who is allowing this to happen? Is it hapenning elsewhere? Possibly. There's your sainted heroes for you.
Not that the weasel word 'apprently' (sic) makes me at all suspicious, but any proof of this?
Proof .. well, it was reported in the Daily Merkle a few days ago.
The DM seems to have found some outraged (but anonymous) nurses at RAH, Paisley.
if it were really true, I would have expected the story to have gathered some momentum since 22 December.
So, my guess is it is bollox.
Probably, but the killer combo of the Daily Mail and 'a nurse insider' (which seems to have mysteriously shrunk from 'nurses' at the start of the piece) certainly gives one pause for thought.
I would be very surprised if this is not happening, at least on a small scale, everywhere. It certainly is at the hospital (in PA, USA) where my wife works. Physicians, even surgeons, who are not in the top priority group (i.e. those who do not perform aerosol-generating procedures) are even lying to get bumped up.
Surprisingly, among non-physician and non-nurse healthcare workers at the hospital, the opposite problem exists - getting some of them to agree to get the vaccine.
As usual, the US is doing it better - there was a scandal in hospital where it turned out that about 5% of the vaccinations were going to staff who were in some danger of actually meeting a patient. The other 95% in the hospital were going to admin. The explanation - the algorithm they were using......
What a dire list of cabinet members. I wouldn't rate a single one of them, with the exception maybe of Douglas Ross.
Why are Davies and Ross separated out from the rest? Seems really odd presentation.
Presumably because they aren't seen as real politicians? Not being in Westminster.
I thought Ross was still in Westminster?
Yes, I forgot he's not a MSP. Must be party leaders as has been pointed out by someone else.
Given I pointed that out as well, are you comparing me to SeanT?
No, more like me behaving like a breakfast-less poor child. Sorry for the lapse.
Disappointing. I’m not sure I’d say no to being a millionaire thriller writer married to a strikingly beautiful blond.
My instant and unthinking reaction was that I'm not sure I would want to jave to keep looking in my M&S boxers to find out what sex/gender I was supposed to be today.
Good and probably sensible to announce them on the same day.
If AZN is approved then combined with the new variant there's really no logical reason not to squish this in January and February with a vaccine rollout, staying at home through the torrid winter months then getting back to normal in the Spring.
Better than dragging out Tiers through the Spring and Summer as everything has collapsed slowing the vaccine rollout.
I am doubtful that the tiers are going to stop the new variant of the virus, unless there is also mass vaccination starting very soon.
A new coronavirus strain that was first detected in the UK has been retrospectively found in an older man who died of the disease in Germany last month, health authorities say.
On the new strain does anyone know in what way it is more transmissable? Is there anything new we can do to protect ourselves while we await the needle?
Good and probably sensible to announce them on the same day.
If AZN is approved then combined with the new variant there's really no logical reason not to squish this in January and February with a vaccine rollout, staying at home through the torrid winter months then getting back to normal in the Spring.
Better than dragging out Tiers through the Spring and Summer as everything has collapsed slowing the vaccine rollout.
I am doubtful that the tiers are going to stop the new variant of the virus, unless there is also mass vaccination starting very soon.
Precisely my point.
Stay at home if you can for a month or two while millions get vaccinated. That will hammer down incident rates and shield the most vulnerable with the vaccinations.
Once mass vaccinations are underway deaths, hospitalisations and hopefully the R rate too should start falling dramatically too. The sooner the vaccine can take the strain of squishing this rather than restrictions on the economy and our lives the better.
I've heard about it in the past from someone who misunderstood how much water they needed to drink a day. It's very possible to "drown" from drinking too much
That was, back in the ‘90s, a common cause of Extacy (MDMA) death, people drinking several pints of water in a short period of time, thinking they were dehydrated.
And it‘s still not going to work if it’s for the reason given. We either need staff, or money and five weeks to find them, if we’re to do this testing. Neither is on offer.
That's why it was so strange, inexplicable even, that Cameron didn't have the official Leave campaign put forward an outline of a platform. It was just EU, yes or no, which made things dramatically easier for Leave and harder for Remain (who nevertheless would've won if the campaign hadn't been so bad).
The blame for Brexit lies with those who wanted it, campaigned for it, voted for it.
When a goalkeeper accidentally throws the ball to the opposing team's striker who taps in the goal you don't say the "blame" for the goal belongs with the striker. The striker did his job, it was the goalkeeper that screwed up.
The credit for Brexit lies with those who wanted it, campaigned for it, voted for it.
The "blame" for Remainers losing the referendum rests squarely and solely on the Remain side.
You are doing it again: an ELI5, except that it is the explainer who comes across as a five year old.
Forget the competitive aspect, because it is fundamentally irrelevant. Assume we are an absolute monarchy and HM brexited of Her own volition with perhaps a bit of a steer from Thomas Wolsey (him, Wolsey) or similar. The primary question is whether brexit was a good move or not, not how we got there. I don't think you think it was, because you were so visibly wedded to the idea of no deal (eggs and omelettes, remember? We didn't break the eggs, so we don't have an omelette). "We won" looks increasingly embarrassing and irrelevant.
What do you mean I was wedded to a No Deal Brexit? You have completely and utterly misunderstood everything I have written on the subject if you believe that?
I have always, always wanted this outcome and besides May's calamitous leadership it is what I expected.
I always said we need to prepare for WTO and be unafraid of it, in order to get the EU to move. I made it clear that it was Good Deal > No Deal > Bad Deal but that the only way to get the good deal was to be prepared to walk away to no deal forcing the EU to accept our demands. Which is exactly how it played out. I was right and everything I predicted has happened.
I could find you a plethora of posts where I've said this unequivocally if you want since when I did I frequently used a Latin phrase that should be easy to find posts with: si vis pacem para bellum. If you want peace prepare for war. If you want a good deal prepare for no deal.
As for the eggs ... They are well and truly broken now. Our omelette is on its way.
Yes, you blew hot and cold a lot, but you were a pretty big no deal fanboi when that looked the likeliest outcome. We don't have a good deal, we have an anything is better than no deal deal. And your failure to predict it doesn't do much for your Borisology credentials.
I never, never, never preferred no deal.
I was always saying if the EU don't move then 'bring it on' but that I wanted and expected the EU would move in the end.
I was right. Oh and I did predict the EU would move - repeatedly. This is exactly what I predicted. Indeed even on the day the Internal Market Bill was published I said it was a masterstroke that made a deal much, much more likely as it was showing us as being seriously ready to do what we need to do in a no deal scenario. From memory williamglenn even asked how would I feel if I was wrong and we ended up with no deal.
I am glad things have turned out exactly as I predicted.
PS we do have a good deal. We have the best deal imaginable.
"The best deal imaginable." 😂
Even Boris doesn't think that.
I certainly don't. The lack of mutual recognition of standards and regulation in services is an obvious and important issue. The exclusion from SIS II is annoying and detrimental to vulnerable people in both the UK and the EU. I have not seen an extension of Gove's trusted trader scheme which would clearly help reduce the friction at the ports. Seed potatoes and some other agricultural products are annoying. I am still not clear if we are still a signatory to Dublin II or not.
But we will survive and thrive once we get rid of this damn virus.
Oh sure it isn't perfect, nothing ever is realistically.
But on the big picture issues? It hits everything I was expecting.
The fact that complaints are largely being concentrated on issues like seed potatoes shows the concerns really are small fries.
Unlike the government, I suppose, which focused on the utterly insignificant - to the U.K. economy - sector of fishing.
The EC behaved unjustly when we entered. They changed the rules specifically to disadvantage our fishing industry. This was about righting that wrong.
And it‘s still not going to work if it’s for the reason given. We either need staff, or money and five weeks to find them, if we’re to do this testing. Neither is on offer.
They're just buying time to see what the numbers look like post Christmas. It is lunacy.
Don't worry, 1,500 members of the Armed Forces will be on the end of a phone, to read out the 'guidance' we got on the last day of term.
And it‘s still not going to work if it’s for the reason given. We either need staff, or money and five weeks to find them, if we’re to do this testing. Neither is on offer.
That's OK. 1500 military personnel, or 1 for every 20 schools, should solve the problem.
And it‘s still not going to work if it’s for the reason given. We either need staff, or money and five weeks to find them, if we’re to do this testing. Neither is on offer.
That's OK. 1500 military personnel, or 1 for every 20 schools, should solve the problem.
Sorry those military personnel will be needed in Scotland according to General HYUFD.
It's good that someone with Gavin Esler's views is asking questions about the Nightingale Hospitals instead of just saying "they don't have the staff" as if that someone explains why millions were spent setting them up if there might not have been enough people to staff them.
Because you don't need the same level of staffing.
Nightgales were designed for patients on ventilators who need monitoring - you can do that with student/retired nurses and currently practice senior nurses to oversee.
It's good that someone with Gavin Esler's views is asking questions about the Nightingale Hospitals instead of just saying "they don't have the staff" as if that someone explains why millions were spent setting them up if there might not have been enough people to staff them.
The Nightingales song will never be sung, it seems. Regardless of how bad things get they will not be a part of the response. They gave public morale a boost back then but that looks to be about the size of it. Another pricey 'PR over Practicality' initiative? https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1343685284609871873
The one in Exeter has been used, as I understand it.
Were it not for the EU actively encouraging such developments, the new plant would likely have been an extension to their existing facilities in the U.K.
On the new strain does anyone know in what way it is more transmissable? Is there anything new we can do to protect ourselves while we await the needle?
Just keep doing the same things and don't be stupid.
Unfortunately that's going to be beyond a large percentage of our fellow citizens.
I'm curious as to whether the people who think Grant Shapps is doing a good job because he's restricting international movement or because he's not restricting international movement.
What really takes the biscuit though is in Scotland, where NHS back office staff, ie that are not in anyway working in clincal settings, have apprently been bumping the queue registering themselves for getting the vaccine. Really? Who is allowing this to happen? Is it hapenning elsewhere? Possibly. There's your sainted heroes for you.
Not that the weasel word 'apprently' (sic) makes me at all suspicious, but any proof of this?
Proof .. well, it was reported in the Daily Merkle a few days ago.
The DM seems to have found some outraged (but anonymous) nurses at RAH, Paisley.
if it were really true, I would have expected the story to have gathered some momentum since 22 December.
So, my guess is it is bollox.
Probably, but the killer combo of the Daily Mail and 'a nurse insider' (which seems to have mysteriously shrunk from 'nurses' at the start of the piece) certainly gives one pause for thought.
I would be very surprised if this is not happening, at least on a small scale, everywhere. It certainly is at the hospital (in PA, USA) where my wife works. Physicians, even surgeons, who are not in the top priority group (i.e. those who do not perform aerosol-generating procedures) are even lying to get bumped up.
Surprisingly, among non-physician and non-nurse healthcare workers at the hospital, the opposite problem exists - getting some of them to agree to get the vaccine.
As usual, the US is doing it better - there was a scandal in hospital where it turned out that about 5% of the vaccinations were going to staff who were in some danger of actually meeting a patient. The other 95% in the hospital were going to admin. The explanation - the algorithm they were using......
It's good that someone with Gavin Esler's views is asking questions about the Nightingale Hospitals instead of just saying "they don't have the staff" as if that someone explains why millions were spent setting them up if there might not have been enough people to staff them.
Because you don't need the same level of staffing.
Nightgales were designed for patients on ventilators who need monitoring - you can do that with student/retired nurses and currently practice senior nurses to oversee.
They were extreme emergency overflow - they were quite seriously talking about using furloughed airline cabin staff, who have first aid training, to help errr..... man/person them.
A new coronavirus strain that was first detected in the UK has been retrospectively found in an older man who died of the disease in Germany last month, health authorities say.
Once us layman knew that apparently the UK is very on the ball on identifying variants compared to others, that news became pretty likely.
That's why it was so strange, inexplicable even, that Cameron didn't have the official Leave campaign put forward an outline of a platform. It was just EU, yes or no, which made things dramatically easier for Leave and harder for Remain (who nevertheless would've won if the campaign hadn't been so bad).
The blame for Brexit lies with those who wanted it, campaigned for it, voted for it.
When a goalkeeper accidentally throws the ball to the opposing team's striker who taps in the goal you don't say the "blame" for the goal belongs with the striker. The striker did his job, it was the goalkeeper that screwed up.
The credit for Brexit lies with those who wanted it, campaigned for it, voted for it.
The "blame" for Remainers losing the referendum rests squarely and solely on the Remain side.
You are doing it again: an ELI5, except that it is the explainer who comes across as a five year old.
Forget the competitive aspect, because it is fundamentally irrelevant. Assume we are an absolute monarchy and HM brexited of Her own volition with perhaps a bit of a steer from Thomas Wolsey (him, Wolsey) or similar. The primary question is whether brexit was a good move or not, not how we got there. I don't think you think it was, because you were so visibly wedded to the idea of no deal (eggs and omelettes, remember? We didn't break the eggs, so we don't have an omelette). "We won" looks increasingly embarrassing and irrelevant.
What do you mean I was wedded to a No Deal Brexit? You have completely and utterly misunderstood everything I have written on the subject if you believe that?
I have always, always wanted this outcome and besides May's calamitous leadership it is what I expected.
I always said we need to prepare for WTO and be unafraid of it, in order to get the EU to move. I made it clear that it was Good Deal > No Deal > Bad Deal but that the only way to get the good deal was to be prepared to walk away to no deal forcing the EU to accept our demands. Which is exactly how it played out. I was right and everything I predicted has happened.
I could find you a plethora of posts where I've said this unequivocally if you want since when I did I frequently used a Latin phrase that should be easy to find posts with: si vis pacem para bellum. If you want peace prepare for war. If you want a good deal prepare for no deal.
As for the eggs ... They are well and truly broken now. Our omelette is on its way.
Yes, you blew hot and cold a lot, but you were a pretty big no deal fanboi when that looked the likeliest outcome. We don't have a good deal, we have an anything is better than no deal deal. And your failure to predict it doesn't do much for your Borisology credentials.
I never, never, never preferred no deal.
I was always saying if the EU don't move then 'bring it on' but that I wanted and expected the EU would move in the end.
I was right. Oh and I did predict the EU would move - repeatedly. This is exactly what I predicted. Indeed even on the day the Internal Market Bill was published I said it was a masterstroke that made a deal much, much more likely as it was showing us as being seriously ready to do what we need to do in a no deal scenario. From memory williamglenn even asked how would I feel if I was wrong and we ended up with no deal.
I am glad things have turned out exactly as I predicted.
PS we do have a good deal. We have the best deal imaginable.
"The best deal imaginable." 😂
Even Boris doesn't think that.
I certainly don't. The lack of mutual recognition of standards and regulation in services is an obvious and important issue. The exclusion from SIS II is annoying and detrimental to vulnerable people in both the UK and the EU. I have not seen an extension of Gove's trusted trader scheme which would clearly help reduce the friction at the ports. Seed potatoes and some other agricultural products are annoying. I am still not clear if we are still a signatory to Dublin II or not.
But we will survive and thrive once we get rid of this damn virus.
Oh sure it isn't perfect, nothing ever is realistically.
But on the big picture issues? It hits everything I was expecting.
The fact that complaints are largely being concentrated on issues like seed potatoes shows the concerns really are small fries.
Unlike the government, I suppose, which focused on the utterly insignificant - to the U.K. economy - sector of fishing.
The EC behaved unjustly when we entered. They changed the rules specifically to disadvantage our fishing industry. This was about righting that wrong.
It hasn't though, has it.
It has moved in the right direction and can be reviewed after 5 years
A new coronavirus strain that was first detected in the UK has been retrospectively found in an older man who died of the disease in Germany last month, health authorities say.
And it‘s still not going to work if it’s for the reason given. We either need staff, or money and five weeks to find them, if we’re to do this testing. Neither is on offer.
That's OK. 1500 military personnel, or 1 for every 20 schools, should solve the problem.
Sorry those military personnel will be needed in Scotland according to General HYUFD.
We can spare a division, real pushovers these scots, so long as we stay away from the Highlands.
It's good that someone with Gavin Esler's views is asking questions about the Nightingale Hospitals instead of just saying "they don't have the staff" as if that someone explains why millions were spent setting them up if there might not have been enough people to staff them.
Because you don't need the same level of staffing.
Nightgales were designed for patients on ventilators who need monitoring - you can do that with student/retired nurses and currently practice senior nurses to oversee.
They were extreme emergency overflow - they were quite seriously talking about using furloughed airline cabin staff, who have first aid training, to help errr..... man/person them.
Precisely.
You need someone who can identify an alarm going off and whether you need to call in the duty paramedic or if it is just something simple.
It's good that someone with Gavin Esler's views is asking questions about the Nightingale Hospitals instead of just saying "they don't have the staff" as if that someone explains why millions were spent setting them up if there might not have been enough people to staff them.
The Nightingales song will never be sung, it seems. Regardless of how bad things get they will not be a part of the response. They gave public morale a boost back then but that looks to be about the size of it. Another pricey 'PR over Practicality' initiative? https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1343685284609871873
The one in Exeter has been used, as I understand it.
Owen Jones is divorced from the truth? Say it isn't so . . .
It was literally said at the time they were overflow for ventillated patients. The alternative seen in Italy and New York was overflow mortuaries. Thank goodness those weren't needed!
I don't know why my surgery seems to be ahead of the game.
It is competent and pro-active (and perhaps the practice head is a friend of BJ?) No scrub that
It is acting as the hub for all surgeries in Barnes and Sheen. "It was all hands to the pump as practice staff and other clinicians from local surgeries came together with local volunteers to vaccinate as many of the most vulnerable as possible. The vaccination clinics ran smoothly and the team have so far vaccinated 2000 people with no issues other than bad weather"
However I think the tide is coming in everywhere. It's a bit further ahead in some places ike Barnes, a bit behind in others, but it is relentlessly coming in, and fast.
Were it not for the EU actively encouraging such developments, the new plant would likely have been an extension to their existing facilities in the U.K.
This example has been cited before. But (if it has any truth) it seems to be about the use of subsidy/development funds rather the “single market”.
@DavidL seems to think the single market is to blame for the UK’s structural deficit in goods trade, and that in turn this deficit is responsible for “at least 800k job losses”.
It's good that someone with Gavin Esler's views is asking questions about the Nightingale Hospitals instead of just saying "they don't have the staff" as if that someone explains why millions were spent setting them up if there might not have been enough people to staff them.
The Nightingales song will never be sung, it seems. Regardless of how bad things get they will not be a part of the response. They gave public morale a boost back then but that looks to be about the size of it. Another pricey 'PR over Practicality' initiative? https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1343685284609871873
The one in Exeter has been used, as I understand it.
I understand the one near us is to be used for mass vaccinations
With the ERG endorsing the deal and Nigel Farage happy to do so as well, some are saying the revolt from the right is now over. In that case I assume the Brexit party will disband
I don't know why my surgery seems to be ahead of the game.
It is competent and pro-active (and perhaps the practice head is a friend of BJ?) No scrub that
It is acting as the hub for all surgeries in Barnes and Sheen. "It was all hands to the pump as practice staff and other clinicians from local surgeries came together with local volunteers to vaccinate as many of the most vulnerable as possible. The vaccination clinics ran smoothly and the team have so far vaccinated 2000 people with no issues other than bad weather"
However I think the tide is coming in everywhere. It's a bit further ahead in some places ike Barnes, a bit behind in others, but it is relentlessly coming in, and fast.
I have observed (personally) an enormous difference in response from various organisation, public and private to this crisis. Some have been magnificent. Some have taken the view that this isn't something they have trained/planned for and curled up in a ball....
Were it not for the EU actively encouraging such developments, the new plant would likely have been an extension to their existing facilities in the U.K.
This example has been cited before. But (if it has any truth) it seems to be about the use of subsidy/development funds rather the “single market”.
@DavidL seems to think the single market is to blame for the UK’s structural deficit in goods trade, and that in turn this deficit is responsible for “at least 800k job losses”.
It’s bollocks, basically.
The combination of EU development grants and the single market made it very attractive to locate heavy industry in low-cost countries. We saw that with a lot of manufacturing.
Prior to the deal being announced there was a lot of crowing that the EU had agreed to recognise development grants as state aid (they had rejected it previously on the grounds that the EU "is not a state"). No one has mentioned it since the deal was announced - where did it actually end up?
With the ERG endorsing the deal and Nigel Farage happy to do so as well, some are saying the revolt from the right is now over. In that case I assume the Brexit party will disband
Boris’s achieved his (the ERG’s) priorities. In exchange we forfeited our long-term export performance, ie standard of living.
On the new strain does anyone know in what way it is more transmissable? Is there anything new we can do to protect ourselves while we await the needle?
Not sure but the Virology Prof on World at One on Sunday was saying it delivers a much higher viral load - maybe because it is more transmissible. This is why he thinks it is now spreading via the younger cohort or 13-18 who previously were not at risk as spreaders.
I think the basic answer is that the only way to make sure you don't get it is stay away from everyone outside your household and keep stuff like shopping to an absolute minimum with maximum protection.
Were it not for the EU actively encouraging such developments, the new plant would likely have been an extension to their existing facilities in the U.K.
This example has been cited before. But (if it has any truth) it seems to be about the use of subsidy/development funds rather the “single market”.
@DavidL seems to think the single market is to blame for the UK’s structural deficit in goods trade, and that in turn this deficit is responsible for “at least 800k job losses”.
It’s bollocks, basically.
Well the first part appears to be true in so far as the last time we had a balance of trade in goods surplus with the EEC/EU (bar a quarter in the early 80s due to oil) was the year before we joined the EEC. Meanwhile we have consistently had a balance of trade surplus in goods with the rest of the world.
Were it not for the EU actively encouraging such developments, the new plant would likely have been an extension to their existing facilities in the U.K.
This example has been cited before. But (if it has any truth) it seems to be about the use of subsidy/development funds rather the “single market”.
@DavidL seems to think the single market is to blame for the UK’s structural deficit in goods trade, and that in turn this deficit is responsible for “at least 800k job losses”.
It’s bollocks, basically.
Well the first part appears to be true in so far as the last time we had a balance of trade in goods surplus with the EEC/EU (bar a quarter in the early 80s due to oil) was the year before we joined the EEC. Meanwhile we have consistently had a balance of trade surplus in goods with the rest of the world.
Our (relatively) poor goods export performance is in part due to endemic productivity issues, especially in manufacturing.
Basically, we are not competitive enough. But this is because of domestic policy decisions more than anything else.
Leaving the single market actually makes us less competitive and may *increase* our trade deficit, because we are unable to access the economies of scale that European manufacturers can.
Were it not for the EU actively encouraging such developments, the new plant would likely have been an extension to their existing facilities in the U.K.
This example has been cited before. But (if it has any truth) it seems to be about the use of subsidy/development funds rather the “single market”.
@DavidL seems to think the single market is to blame for the UK’s structural deficit in goods trade, and that in turn this deficit is responsible for “at least 800k job losses”.
It’s bollocks, basically.
Well the first part appears to be true in so far as the last time we had a balance of trade in goods surplus with the EEC/EU (bar a quarter in the early 80s due to oil) was the year before we joined the EEC. Meanwhile we have consistently had a balance of trade surplus in goods with the rest of the world.
Our (relatively) poor goods export performance is in part due to endemic productivity issues, especially in manufacturing.
Basically, we are not competitive enough. But this is because of domestic policy decisions more than anything else.
Leaving the single market actually makes us less competitive and may *increase* our trade deficit, because we are unable to access the economies of scale that European manufacturers can.
Which entirely ignores what I wrote. Our endemic productivity issues didn't suddenly appear just because we joined the EEC. And yet it was at that point that our balance of trade in goods went into sharp reverse. And at the same time our balance of trade with the rest of the world has performed far better in spite of these apparent endemic issues. Unless you believe that everyone else in the world has the same issues except the EEC/EU then your claims are not supported by the evidence.
I'll start my 2021 predictions with a detailed set on COVID:
Jan: AZ vaccine starts up and we quickly scale beyond 1m vaccinations a week. Tier 4 starts to spread beyond the South (starting with Cumbria, I'm afraid) while Kent and SE start to come under control with few further +++ measures. HMG persist until the very last in trying to enforce onsite schooling and then cede minimally to the inevitable, by the end of the month mass testing in schools is in chaos with demand outstripping supply and the term collapses. Deaths are dropping sharply by the end of January, but the NHS is still having to cope with massive hospitalisations and is breaking in places.
Feb: As immunisation moves younger, the herd immunity the vaccines have been found to provide turns the tide. Strict restrictions, an extended half term break, and vaccination mean hospitalisations and then cases start dropping by 50% or more week on week. For all the fuss of the UK getting in a couple of weeks early on vaccination, the pattern is repeated across Europe and US at a similar rate, though the US and UK fall slightly faster from a higher base.
Mar: Tiers start to ease and schools trickle back to in person teaching without any impact on the fall in cases to below 10/100k by month end. By the end of the month a mix of Tier 3 and Tier 2 is in operation and pressure is on from backbenches for further easing, resulting in
Apr: An Easter amnesty is called for 6 days, goes ahead and only blips the downward trend marginally. Vaccinations reach the 50-60 cohort and most places go into Tier 1.
May: Worries about the duration of immunity from vaccination means that it is suspended in below 50s, to resume in September, which is controversial, with the shipping of excess stock to developing countries with outbreaks forming an ugly part of the argument. Basic social distancing and mask wearing until 2022 is mooted: as cases drop this too comes under pressure, not least as the business damage and the final ending of furlough etc. come more into focus.
Jul: Summer goes ahead broadly normally, under pressure the requirements for businesses to enforce distancing ease. Smatterings of cases, well below last year's levels cause some panics. The NHS app, which had remained peripheral, is disconnected from test and trace, but is relaunched in pure game form to encourage social distancing and proves modestly popular.
Sept: Cases mount a little, vaccinations resume and some trial boosters are formally rolled into the flu shot programme, covering a monitoring program for new variants. The virus increases quite slowly.
Dec: At winter peak there are around 40 cases per 100k with very modest hospitalisation and death levels amongst the unvaccinated, who are indiscriminately vilified whatever their reasons were. It is stated to be a 'near normal' winter and Christmas goes ahead with little more than the 'new normal' of personal distancing, and minor numerical restrictions in outbreak areas.
Were it not for the EU actively encouraging such developments, the new plant would likely have been an extension to their existing facilities in the U.K.
This example has been cited before. But (if it has any truth) it seems to be about the use of subsidy/development funds rather the “single market”.
@DavidL seems to think the single market is to blame for the UK’s structural deficit in goods trade, and that in turn this deficit is responsible for “at least 800k job losses”.
It’s bollocks, basically.
Well the first part appears to be true in so far as the last time we had a balance of trade in goods surplus with the EEC/EU (bar a quarter in the early 80s due to oil) was the year before we joined the EEC. Meanwhile we have consistently had a balance of trade surplus in goods with the rest of the world.
Our (relatively) poor goods export performance is in part due to endemic productivity issues, especially in manufacturing.
Basically, we are not competitive enough. But this is because of domestic policy decisions more than anything else.
Leaving the single market actually makes us less competitive and may *increase* our trade deficit, because we are unable to access the economies of scale that European manufacturers can.
Which entirely ignores what I wrote. Our endemic productivity issues didn't suddenly appear just because we joined the EEC. And yet it was at that point that our balance of trade in goods went into sharp reverse. And at the same time our balance of trade with the rest of the world has performed far better in spite of these apparent endemic issues. Unless you believe that everyone else in the world has the same issues except the EEC/EU then your claims are not supported by the evidence.
Britain’s goods deficit only became significant in in the late 80s, and since 2000 especially has got much larger.
Britain also has a goods deficit globally, not just with the EU.
Embarrassing more like, we now need charity from Ireland, how the tables have turned.
It’s not charity. They have decided to extend a benefit they provide to RoI citizens in RoI to dual citizens in NI. They then decided (for simplicity or just to irritate the DUP) to extend it to U.K.-only citizens in NI
Sticking in unionists craws though, first UNICEF helping out with starving children , now the Irish who they are always slagging off as poor country hicks providing charity in NI.
I don’t think I’ve seen any unionist on here slagging off the Irish as “poor country hicks”
You obviously must be ignoring those then , was not long ago they wanted to starve them as well. England has always derided the Irish as being dumb , poor , etc. They have everlasting resentment that Ireland chucked them out.
You know my mother's family history in Ireland, right?
English intervention in Ireland is a very unhappy tale, bit like Scotland but worse.
An independent Scotland would have different spending priorities than the UK. For example, it would not seek to be a world power, and would spend less on defence. It would spend more on social needs. That would be the case whichever party was in power in an independent Scotland, probably even the Conservatives, as if they followed hard right policies, they would not be elected.
Not true for Ireland which now spends less and taxes less as a percentage of gdp than the UK.
In fact in recent years both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have followed a near Thatcherite economic agenda
An independent Scotland would have different spending priorities than the UK. For example, it would not seek to be a world power, and would spend less on defence. It would spend more on social needs. That would be the case whichever party was in power in an independent Scotland, probably even the Conservatives, as if they followed hard right policies, they would not be elected.
Not true for Ireland which now spends less and taxes less as a percentage of gdp than the UK.
In fact in recent years both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have followed a near Thatcherite economic agenda
Which is their right as the government of an independent nation.
Comments
I was speaking figuratively rather than literally.
Honest...
I thought that as soon as I pushed send, but was really thinking of politicians in western democracies as the peer group. I general I prefer to avoid superlatives as someone will always one-up you.
Disturbing though that Williamson’s at -36 not -100.
https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1343928632008450052?s=20
Think I might complain to my MP, one P Patel.
- What is at the actual capacity then and now? I do not find it inconceivable that the number of ICU beds has been increased this year
- Staffing - numbers then and now. A hospital bed without nurses and doctors is a rather expensive... bed. Are we talking about staffing levels vs bed numbers?
- The bed occupancy numbers etc nationally are waiting for an update for over the Christmas period. This should be today.
Tories are in their comfort zone on Brexit. Labour should be making that zone a lot more uncomfortable.
The true structural elements are the revenues lost from the businesses that aren’t going to bounce back - train companies, VAT from coffee shops in central London, business rates on premium office space, a fair bit of high street retail in the larger towns and cities, fuel tax and so on.
The algorithm chosen by the administrators....
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-55474533
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/dec/29/full-reopening-of-secondary-schools-in-england-could-be-delayed
Williamson needs kicking into touch in the next reshuffle. Students have exams NEXT WEEK, but I don't expect this utter duffer to be aware of that.
So it ain't racing at warp speed everywhere.
Stay at home if you can for a month or two while millions get vaccinated. That will hammer down incident rates and shield the most vulnerable with the vaccinations.
Once mass vaccinations are underway deaths, hospitalisations and hopefully the R rate too should start falling dramatically too. The sooner the vaccine can take the strain of squishing this rather than restrictions on the economy and our lives the better.
https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-new-school-opening-delay-agreed-ministers
And it‘s still not going to work if it’s for the reason given. We either need staff, or money and five weeks to find them, if we’re to do this testing. Neither is on offer.
Don't worry, 1,500 members of the Armed Forces will be on the end of a phone, to read out the 'guidance' we got on the last day of term.
https://twitter.com/oldnorthroad/status/1343935741680898049
Nightgales were designed for patients on ventilators who need monitoring - you can do that with student/retired nurses and currently practice senior nurses to oversee.
Eldest Granddaughter has just suggested we don't do too much cheering at the end of 2020, or it might wake the gremlins AGAIN!
https://media.jaguarlandrover.com/news/2018/10/jaguar-land-rover-opens-manufacturing-plant-slovakia
Were it not for the EU actively encouraging such developments, the new plant would likely have been an extension to their existing facilities in the U.K.
Unfortunately that's going to be beyond a large percentage of our fellow citizens.
You need someone who can identify an alarm going off and whether you need to call in the duty paramedic or if it is just something simple.
It was literally said at the time they were overflow for ventillated patients. The alternative seen in Italy and New York was overflow mortuaries. Thank goodness those weren't needed!
It is competent and pro-active (and perhaps the practice head is a friend of BJ?) No scrub that
It is acting as the hub for all surgeries in Barnes and Sheen.
"It was all hands to the pump as practice staff and other clinicians from local surgeries came together with local volunteers to vaccinate as many of the most vulnerable as possible. The vaccination clinics ran smoothly and the team have so far vaccinated 2000 people with no issues other than bad weather"
However I think the tide is coming in everywhere. It's a bit further ahead in some places ike Barnes, a bit behind in others, but it is relentlessly coming in, and fast.
But (if it has any truth) it seems to be about the use of subsidy/development funds rather the “single market”.
@DavidL seems to think the single market is to blame for the UK’s structural deficit in goods trade, and that in turn this deficit is responsible for “at least 800k job losses”.
It’s bollocks, basically.
NEW THREAD
Prior to the deal being announced there was a lot of crowing that the EU had agreed to recognise development grants as state aid (they had rejected it previously on the grounds that the EU "is not a state"). No one has mentioned it since the deal was announced - where did it actually end up?
In exchange we forfeited our long-term export performance, ie standard of living.
I think the basic answer is that the only way to make sure you don't get it is stay away from everyone outside your household and keep stuff like shopping to an absolute minimum with maximum protection.
Basically, we are not competitive enough.
But this is because of domestic policy decisions more than anything else.
Leaving the single market actually makes us less competitive and may *increase* our trade deficit, because we are unable to access the economies of scale that European manufacturers can.
Jan: AZ vaccine starts up and we quickly scale beyond 1m vaccinations a week. Tier 4 starts to spread beyond the South (starting with Cumbria, I'm afraid) while Kent and SE start to come under control with few further +++ measures. HMG persist until the very last in trying to enforce onsite schooling and then cede minimally to the inevitable, by the end of the month mass testing in schools is in chaos with demand outstripping supply and the term collapses. Deaths are dropping sharply by the end of January, but the NHS is still having to cope with massive hospitalisations and is breaking in places.
Feb: As immunisation moves younger, the herd immunity the vaccines have been found to provide turns the tide. Strict restrictions, an extended half term break, and vaccination mean hospitalisations and then cases start dropping by 50% or more week on week. For all the fuss of the UK getting in a couple of weeks early on vaccination, the pattern is repeated across Europe and US at a similar rate, though the US and UK fall slightly faster from a higher base.
Mar: Tiers start to ease and schools trickle back to in person teaching without any impact on the fall in cases to below 10/100k by month end. By the end of the month a mix of Tier 3 and Tier 2 is in operation and pressure is on from backbenches for further easing, resulting in
Apr: An Easter amnesty is called for 6 days, goes ahead and only blips the downward trend marginally. Vaccinations reach the 50-60 cohort and most places go into Tier 1.
May: Worries about the duration of immunity from vaccination means that it is suspended in below 50s, to resume in September, which is controversial, with the shipping of excess stock to developing countries with outbreaks forming an ugly part of the argument. Basic social distancing and mask wearing until 2022 is mooted: as cases drop this too comes under pressure, not least as the business damage and the final ending of furlough etc. come more into focus.
Jul: Summer goes ahead broadly normally, under pressure the requirements for businesses to enforce distancing ease. Smatterings of cases, well below last year's levels cause some panics. The NHS app, which had remained peripheral, is disconnected from test and trace, but is relaunched in pure game form to encourage social distancing and proves modestly popular.
Sept: Cases mount a little, vaccinations resume and some trial boosters are formally rolled into the flu shot programme, covering a monitoring program for new variants. The virus increases quite slowly.
Dec: At winter peak there are around 40 cases per 100k with very modest hospitalisation and death levels amongst the unvaccinated, who are indiscriminately vilified whatever their reasons were. It is stated to be a 'near normal' winter and Christmas goes ahead with little more than the 'new normal' of personal distancing, and minor numerical restrictions in outbreak areas.
Britain also has a goods deficit globally, not just with the EU.
So you’re taking bollocks per usual.