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Cyclefree gives her Predictions for 2021 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,168
edited December 2020 in General
imageCyclefree gives her Predictions for 2021 – politicalbetting.com

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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited December 2020
    interesting and plausible

    Oh - and first
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,239
    edited December 2020
    Secundus.

    Alea iacta erit.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,239
    Thanks for the piece, @Cyclefree.

    I don't think I can say anything except .... oof.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Interesting, thanks Cyclefree. Point 6 is already happening to some extent - hospitals diverting patients to other hospitals, though not yet at the stage of refusing treatment anywhere.

    I put up a warning on local social media not to throw New Year parties, given the 130% rise in cases and our Tier 4 status. Mostly supportive comments, though one says scornfully "How convenient that they're announcing higher figures just as they're planning more lockdowns" - a remarkable example of cart and horse swapping places.
  • Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    I agree, Robert. The world knows how to do vaccinations. The only thing missing for the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines is the cold distribution chain. Not an issue with more standard vaccines.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Let’s hope Mrs Cyclefree is wrong about most of these!

    Oh, and so much for getting up early to watch the cricket... Ho hum.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    Let’s hope you’re right about the 20m doses. Presumably, absent the storage requirements of the Pfizer vaccine, and with the military doing the logistics, these are sitting in hospitals and clinics all over the country waiting for approval - could be in 10m arms pretty quickly once that approval comes.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Sandpit said:

    Let’s hope Mrs Cyclefree is wrong about most of these!

    Oh, and so much for getting up early to watch the cricket... Ho hum.

    Fantastic win by India. Rahane the deserved man of the match: superb.

    And, no offence, Cyclefree but I skipped.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    The validity of most of Cyclefree’s predictions hang on whether or not the AZN vaccine is rapidly approved.
    If so, we will not be waiting many months to be vaccinated, and 2021 will be a much better year irrespective of manifold government failings.

    China will I think continue to keep COVID under control - it has a formula (mass testing and ruthless lockdowns) which works. Ruthless repression of press freedoms will also continue, of course.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    What a twattish response by Everton Football Club. Prats.

    "Everton Football Club regret the postponement of tonight’s match against Manchester City – not only for the 2,000 fans who would have been attending, but for supporters on Merseyside and across the world.

    Our players were prepared for the game, as were both the team staff and everyone at Goodison. Matchday is the most important date in our calendar. And this was a big one.

    Whilst Everton will always have public safety uppermost, we will be requesting full disclosure of all the information that Manchester City provided to the Premier League so the Club can be clear on why this decision was taken.”
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Sandpit said:

    What a twattish response by Everton Football Club. Prats.

    "Everton Football Club regret the postponement of tonight’s match against Manchester City – not only for the 2,000 fans who would have been attending, but for supporters on Merseyside and across the world.

    Our players were prepared for the game, as were both the team staff and everyone at Goodison. Matchday is the most important date in our calendar. And this was a big one.

    Whilst Everton will always have public safety uppermost, we will be requesting full disclosure of all the information that Manchester City provided to the Premier League so the Club can be clear on why this decision was taken.”

    The issue is that the PL decision, taken four hours before the match and without Everton’s input, went against their own rules from when the season started.

    They’re asking for clarification from the PL why this match shouldn’t be forfeited by City [edited]
    Ridiculous. This is football all over. It's frigging common sense that it was called off. Walker and Jesus were confirmed covid positive on Christmas Day and Manchester City and the PL acted responsibly. We're in the middle of an extremely dangerous pandemic and football isn't above it.

    This has bugger all to do with anything except Everton's lust to be top of the table alongside their arch rivals.

    On Christmas Day, Manchester City forward Gabriel Jesus and defender Kyle Walker - along with two members of staff - were revealed to have tested positive for COVID-19 and entered self-isolation.

    The club has now reported further coronavirus cases and, as well as the postponement of the Everton game, will close their first team training ground for an "indeterminate period".

    A statement from Manchester City said: "After the latest round of COVID-19 testing, the club returned a number of positive cases, in addition to the four already reported on Christmas Day.

    "With the security of the bubble compromised, there posed a risk that the virus could spread further amongst the squad, the staff and potentially beyond.

    "Based on strong medical advice the Premier League, in consultation with both clubs, have decided to postpone the fixture."

    The club said its playing squad and associated bubble would undergo further testing before any decision is taken on when to resume training."


    p.s. I edited out your remark that this is because the Man City players can't be trusted to behave as there's no evidence that this is why they caught it.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    And it doesn't matter if the decision is taken 5 minutes before kick off if people's lives are at stake.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    edited December 2020
    We just need to get on with the vaccinations as quickly as possible so the lockdowns can end. Hopefully 3 to 4 months is enough time to vaccinate all the vulnerable groups.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    And it doesn't matter if the decision is taken 5 minutes before kick off if people's lives are at stake.

    I’m not saying the match should have been played.

    I’m saying that, at the start of the season the PL said that matches should go ahead or be forfeited if a team can’t field 14 players, but now appear to be taking a different line on this when it happened to a big club.

    In Everton’s view, MC should have either sent out the reserves last night, or Everton should be awarded the win in line with the PL statements at the start of the season.

    Irrespective of how this virus arrived at MC, a sporting penalty might actually concentrate the minds of the chairmen, in how they are allowing clubs to control bubbles of players and coaches.

    For some reason, sportsmen in general, and footballers in particular, seem incredibly susceptible to this virus. And not just because they’re regularly tested.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited December 2020
    Hmm. Looks like Starmer's first big challenge.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/28/starmer-high-profile-labour-rebellion-brexit-deal-vote

    "Keir Starmer is facing a high-profile rebellion against Labour’s Brexit position on the eve of the vote in parliament, as prominent MPs including John McDonnell and Clive Lewis accused him of “falling into the trap of rallying around this rotten deal”.

    Labour is likely to contain a major rebellion of frontbench MPs but an increasing number of prominent supporters are urging Starmer to change course. Backbenchers have also raised concerns on private WhatsApp groups that Labour’s endorsement for the deal has been given without the legislation being published.

    Those who signed the Labour statement urging Starmer not to support the deal come from across the political spectrum, including the former shadow chancellor McDonnell and Ben Bradshaw, a former cabinet minister who is a staunch supporter of Starmer.

    “This deal is a substantial downgrade of the UK’s relationship with the EU,” the statement warns, “and is designed to open the door to rampant economic deregulation – a loss of rights and protections for workers, the environment, food standards and many other areas of life.”
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    Let’s hope you’re right about the 20m doses. Presumably, absent the storage requirements of the Pfizer vaccine, and with the military doing the logistics, these are sitting in hospitals and clinics all over the country waiting for approval - could be in 10m arms pretty quickly once that approval comes.
    I suspect that the doses are in AZN facilities in the uk. But I don't think getting then to clinics is going to be a problem, the vaccine doesn't require a super cold distribution channel.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    I agree on point 11 happening. Not sure it'll be this year, but if I were Taiwan I'd be very nervous.
  • I like Cyclefree but not sure I am quite so negative

    We will see and of course vaccinating is the key to unlock a better time
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462
    edited December 2020
    Good morning ladies & gentlemen,
    Poor Ms Cyclefree is not having a good time is she? Her family problems, especially, the lack of business in the hospitality sector, are clearly and understandably looming very, very, large in her mind.

    As far as the vaccine and roll-out are concerned, I think (?hope) she's being too negative. There will be stutters and local problems (as we appear to have in N. Essex) but I think the NHS staff involved will move heaven and earth to get it done. The underfunding of community nursing services over the past few years is, though, coming home to roost.
    As people are vaccinated, then slowly the sectors which have been worst it will recover. They might not be quite the same as they were, but the people who can adapt to the 'new normal' will find opportunities.

    Where I do agree with her is about deteriorating standards in public life; I think we will see more, especially low-level, corruption. 'Who one knows' will become increasingly important, and, bit by bit the integrity of our processes will be damaged. This might provide opportunity for someone with 'clean hands', but not I think until 2022.

    The complexity of travelling to (and from) and doing business with Europe will, slowly get worse. At some point Nortedrn Ireland will decide to join the Republic; maybe not in 2021, but at their next elections pro-reunion and pro EU parties will eclipse the DUP.

    And like Mr Dancer I suspect that China will make life increasingly difficult for Taiwan. An influx of Hong Kong Chinese citizens will not be 'popular' with anti-immigrant voters here either.
  • Hmm. Looks like Starmer's first big challenge.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/28/starmer-high-profile-labour-rebellion-brexit-deal-vote

    "Keir Starmer is facing a high-profile rebellion against Labour’s Brexit position on the eve of the vote in parliament, as prominent MPs including John McDonnell and Clive Lewis accused him of “falling into the trap of rallying around this rotten deal”.

    Labour is likely to contain a major rebellion of frontbench MPs but an increasing number of prominent supporters are urging Starmer to change course. Backbenchers have also raised concerns on private WhatsApp groups that Labour’s endorsement for the deal has been given without the legislation being published.

    Those who signed the Labour statement urging Starmer not to support the deal come from across the political spectrum, including the former shadow chancellor McDonnell and Ben Bradshaw, a former cabinet minister who is a staunch supporter of Starmer.

    “This deal is a substantial downgrade of the UK’s relationship with the EU,” the statement warns, “and is designed to open the door to rampant economic deregulation – a loss of rights and protections for workers, the environment, food standards and many other areas of life.”

    The issue for Starmer is how many rebel beyond the usual suspects. McDonnell and Lewis both fall into that category. I don't think people like Bradshaw will worry Starmer too much either as they are not going to cause problems beyond this specific vote. His concern will be big names from the centre of the party around which ongoing opposition to him might correlate - a Cooper, say, or a Benn; or a prominent member of his front bench team.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    And the government continues to demonstrate it has the intellect of a stuffed cabbage and the integrity of a Barbara Wolf or a David Irving:*

    Covid-19: Military to support mass testing of students in England
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55471095

    Let’s crunch some figures here.

    First of all, let’s overlook the fact that every head has basically told the government to quit smoking pot and to fuck off, because their plans are undeliverable. Let’s assume, therefore, that this is a serious offer and not an attempt by a bunch of dangerous losers to pass the blame to somebody else.

    There will be no ‘other staff or volunteers’ involved in this process, because there has been no time to recruit or train them (this was announced in the last week of term - it would have had to be announced at the start of November to be practicable for January). So the military will be doing the lot.

    There are just under 4,000 secondary schools in England (again, let’s assume this isn’t happening in primary schools). So this would equate to four soldiers for every school. This equates well with the government’s firm belief that only three staff are needed to run this process.

    However, the government has again taken no account of this funny thing called the size of schools. In a best case scenario where everything works, as of course it always does, to test all pupils in the time available would require approximately 1 tester to 90 children. So at the smallest state secondary school in the land (wild guess - Fairfield in Herefordshire, roll about 500) we are talking about 5/6 staff. At the largest secondary schools in the land (Nottingham Academy, just under 4,000) we’re talking more like 50.
    (continued)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462
    Ydoethur, would it not be useful to give those in what old people like me call the VIth form a crash course is doing the tests?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Ydoethur, would it not be useful to give those in what old people like me call the VIth form a crash course is doing the tests?

    Do you mean for themselves, or for others?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Yesterday skiers, today backpackers:

    Covid: Sydney beach party sparks UK backpacker deportation threats
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55471235

    At least with that level of IQ they have fine careers at the DfE or in Parliament ahead of them.
  • TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    I agree, Robert. The world knows how to do vaccinations. The only thing missing for the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines is the cold distribution chain. Not an issue with more standard vaccines.
    Yet to see if the Oxford one is any good though, signs so far are that it is crap.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Scott_xP said:
    I hope they know what they’re doing. I can’t see the DUP being happy about this offer.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710

    Ydoethur, would it not be useful to give those in what old people like me call the VIth form a crash course is doing the tests?

    I have been doing the Lateral flow Test bi weekly for some weeks as part of a hospital study.

    1) first swab both tonsils, then at least one nostril as posteriorly as possible. That is the uncomfortable bit, and easy to get an inadequate sample.

    2) decant 6 drops of the solution from a eardrop style bottle into a plastic test tube.

    3) press the swab tip into the liquid and against the wall to dislodge the antigen for at least 10 seconds.

    4) cap the test tube

    5) squeeze 2 drops of the liquid from the cap into the recess on the test plate. This then soaks the blotting paper in the test, from one end.

    6) wait 20 min, and no longer than 30 min to read. There should be a dark positive control line. If there is a dark line before that the test is positive. If neither are dark then the test is void and needs to be repeated.

    7) enter results to a slightly clunky web page.

    For a scientifically trained person, not that much of a problem, taking maybe 5 minutes, apart from waiting time.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Foxy said:

    Ydoethur, would it not be useful to give those in what old people like me call the VIth form a crash course is doing the tests?

    I have been doing the Lateral flow Test bi weekly for some weeks as part of a hospital study.

    1) first swab both tonsils, then at least one nostril as posteriorly as possible. That is the uncomfortable bit, and easy to get an inadequate sample.

    2) decant 6 drops of the solution from a eardrop style bottle into a plastic test tube.

    3) press the swab tip into the liquid and against the wall to dislodge the antigen for at least 10 seconds.

    4) cap the test tube

    5) squeeze 2 drops of the liquid from the cap into the recess on the test plate. This then soaks the blotting paper in the test, from one end.

    6) wait 20 min, and no longer than 30 min to read. There should be a dark positive control line. If there is a dark line before that the test is positive. If neither are dark then the test is void and needs to be repeated.

    7) enter results to a slightly clunky web page.

    For a scientifically trained person, not that much of a problem, taking maybe 5 minutes, apart from waiting time.

    For a teenager, especially one with SEND?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    I received my new EHIC yesterday - it is for UK pensioners who live in the EU.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    I agree, Robert. The world knows how to do vaccinations. The only thing missing for the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines is the cold distribution chain. Not an issue with more standard vaccines.
    Yet to see if the Oxford one is any good though, signs so far are that it is crap.
    Great we have such eminent scientists posting on PB
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Coughs and Sneezes - Spread Diseases
    Facebook Spreads Conspiracy Theories

    Your friend Karen who once lived next door to a nurse is not an Epidemiologist
  • I know the Dutch are infamously laid back, but....

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1343796509784084480?s=19
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710
    edited December 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    Implicit in the GFA, but made explicit in the Withdrawal Agreement is the recognition of shared sovereignty over the disputed six counties.

    It does seem as if Dublin is more positive about the lives there than London.

    With the prosperity south of the border, and decline in religious sectarianism on both sides (though obviously some way to go still!) reunification is a matter of time, just awaiting a plebiscite. I think that the six counties would then become a devolved community of RoI rather than a devolved community of UK.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited December 2020
    The sad adverse impact on Cycle and her family has certainly led to some pessimistic predictions, particularly on the vaccine and virus! If things go as badly as she suggests, I would expect some more dramatic consequences - to markets, politics, even social disorder - beyond the direct ones stated.

    She rightly flags some of the pressure that will arise midway through the vaccination programme, which so far haven’t had much airtime amid the good news of its launch. Will the oldies, who have been protected by the changes everyone else has made, behave responsibly when they have immunity while the rest of the population is still waiting, or will we see crowds of unmasked silvers surfing the high streets and out at bingo until the small hours?
  • Sandpit said:

    And it doesn't matter if the decision is taken 5 minutes before kick off if people's lives are at stake.

    I’m not saying the match should have been played.

    I’m saying that, at the start of the season the PL said that matches should go ahead or be forfeited if a team can’t field 14 players, but now appear to be taking a different line on this when it happened to a big club.

    In Everton’s view, MC should have either sent out the reserves last night, or Everton should be awarded the win in line with the PL statements at the start of the season.

    Irrespective of how this virus arrived at MC, a sporting penalty might actually concentrate the minds of the chairmen, in how they are allowing clubs to control bubbles of players and coaches.

    For some reason, sportsmen in general, and footballers in particular, seem incredibly susceptible to this virus. And not just because they’re regularly tested.
    I agree entirely that rules agreed at the start should be upheld (even though I thought the rule problematic when it came out).

    It is fairly obvious that footballers should be more susceptible, their job means they are practising only limited social distancing and doing lots of travel. Since March I have met about an average of three or four people a week, mostly outdoors, and not travelled more than about 40 miles. A typical footballer is meeting 30 teammates and coaches, 30 opponents, half a dozen officials, doctors, physios and travelling a few hundred miles most weeks. Of course they will catch it more often, regardless of their social lives.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Andy_JS said:
    I'd be more reassured by some sort of plan, like the very detailed one already published in the US.

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725
    Something to cheer us all up. The Ozzies getting thrashed by India. Tim Paine is past his sell by date and if you get Smith out for a v low score the spine of Australia collapses.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421

    Good morning, everyone.

    I agree on point 11 happening. Not sure it'll be this year, but if I were Taiwan I'd be very nervous.

    I think there'd surely be some intermediate step before Taiwan. The experience over Hong Kong will have bolstered confidence in Beijing, but they would want some other confidence-building steps first.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    Could the other firms not make more of the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine under license? If so, govts should band together and make it clear this has to happen or facilities will be requisitioned to make it happen regardless.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    Let’s hope you’re right about the 20m doses. Presumably, absent the storage requirements of the Pfizer vaccine, and with the military doing the logistics, these are sitting in hospitals and clinics all over the country waiting for approval - could be in 10m arms pretty quickly once that approval comes.
    I don't think they distribute vaccines that haven't been approved, either here or in the US?
  • IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    I'd be more reassured by some sort of plan, like the very detailed one already published in the US.

    I notice all those media reports of AZN vaccine approved today are bollocks.
  • Good morning ladies & gentlemen,
    Poor Ms Cyclefree is not having a good time is she? Her family problems, especially, the lack of business in the hospitality sector, are clearly and understandably looming very, very, large in her mind.

    As far as the vaccine and roll-out are concerned, I think (?hope) she's being too negative. There will be stutters and local problems (as we appear to have in N. Essex) but I think the NHS staff involved will move heaven and earth to get it done. The underfunding of community nursing services over the past few years is, though, coming home to roost.
    As people are vaccinated, then slowly the sectors which have been worst it will recover. They might not be quite the same as they were, but the people who can adapt to the 'new normal' will find opportunities.

    Where I do agree with her is about deteriorating standards in public life; I think we will see more, especially low-level, corruption. 'Who one knows' will become increasingly important, and, bit by bit the integrity of our processes will be damaged. This might provide opportunity for someone with 'clean hands', but not I think until 2022.

    The complexity of travelling to (and from) and doing business with Europe will, slowly get worse. At some point Nortedrn Ireland will decide to join the Republic; maybe not in 2021, but at their next elections pro-reunion and pro EU parties will eclipse the DUP.

    And like Mr Dancer I suspect that China will make life increasingly difficult for Taiwan. An influx of Hong Kong Chinese citizens will not be 'popular' with anti-immigrant voters here either.

    I think she is just right. The spivs and crooks are running the country and this will spread to general public. I think oxford vaccine is a duffer and being out of EU will be a disaster. China will be flexing her muscles and we will have Raab saying "I am not happy" and little else, so not shaping to be a good year at this point. Can only keep fingers crossed and wish for freedom from being an abused colony into the bargain.
  • felix said:
    Embarrassing more like, we now need charity from Ireland, how the tables have turned.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    Foxy said:

    Ydoethur, would it not be useful to give those in what old people like me call the VIth form a crash course is doing the tests?

    I have been doing the Lateral flow Test bi weekly for some weeks as part of a hospital study.

    1) first swab both tonsils, then at least one nostril as posteriorly as possible. That is the uncomfortable bit, and easy to get an inadequate sample.

    2) decant 6 drops of the solution from a eardrop style bottle into a plastic test tube.

    3) press the swab tip into the liquid and against the wall to dislodge the antigen for at least 10 seconds.

    4) cap the test tube

    5) squeeze 2 drops of the liquid from the cap into the recess on the test plate. This then soaks the blotting paper in the test, from one end.

    6) wait 20 min, and no longer than 30 min to read. There should be a dark positive control line. If there is a dark line before that the test is positive. If neither are dark then the test is void and needs to be repeated.

    7) enter results to a slightly clunky web page.

    For a scientifically trained person, not that much of a problem, taking maybe 5 minutes, apart from waiting time.

    And if you have no tonsils?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Thanks for the article. 2021 could be no picnic. The economic reckoning could well be underestimated here.
  • felix said:

    I received my new EHIC yesterday - it is for UK pensioners who live in the EU.

    Good keepsake if as much use as a chocolate teapot now, you have 2 days to use it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    edited December 2020

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    I agree, Robert. The world knows how to do vaccinations. The only thing missing for the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines is the cold distribution chain. Not an issue with more standard vaccines.
    Yet to see if the Oxford one is any good though, signs so far are that it is crap.
    Any evidence to go with that or just your gut instinct.

    It actually doesn't need to be brilliant to be good enough- if it reduces the chance of needing a hospital visit to at worst a day or two in bed with reduced transmission it's more than good enough
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    How many of the 62’new’ trade deals are actually new and will bring new trade? The front page of the express implies that it’s new business if not true it’s a disgraceful lie and con job.
  • felix said:

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    I agree, Robert. The world knows how to do vaccinations. The only thing missing for the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines is the cold distribution chain. Not an issue with more standard vaccines.
    Yet to see if the Oxford one is any good though, signs so far are that it is crap.
    Great we have such eminent scientists posting on PB
    From what I have read this year I am likely to be as right as the "experts". They have not covered themselves in glory. If you have nothing to say then best to keep your trap shut.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710
    edited December 2020

    Foxy said:

    Ydoethur, would it not be useful to give those in what old people like me call the VIth form a crash course is doing the tests?

    I have been doing the Lateral flow Test bi weekly for some weeks as part of a hospital study.

    1) first swab both tonsils, then at least one nostril as posteriorly as possible. That is the uncomfortable bit, and easy to get an inadequate sample.

    2) decant 6 drops of the solution from a eardrop style bottle into a plastic test tube.

    3) press the swab tip into the liquid and against the wall to dislodge the antigen for at least 10 seconds.

    4) cap the test tube

    5) squeeze 2 drops of the liquid from the cap into the recess on the test plate. This then soaks the blotting paper in the test, from one end.

    6) wait 20 min, and no longer than 30 min to read. There should be a dark positive control line. If there is a dark line before that the test is positive. If neither are dark then the test is void and needs to be repeated.

    7) enter results to a slightly clunky web page.

    For a scientifically trained person, not that much of a problem, taking maybe 5 minutes, apart from waiting time.

    And if you have no tonsils?
    The tonsillar recess.

    If you haven't gagged or your eye watered for the nostrils, you probably aren't doing it right.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,239

    Sandpit said:

    And it doesn't matter if the decision is taken 5 minutes before kick off if people's lives are at stake.

    I’m not saying the match should have been played.

    I’m saying that, at the start of the season the PL said that matches should go ahead or be forfeited if a team can’t field 14 players, but now appear to be taking a different line on this when it happened to a big club.

    In Everton’s view, MC should have either sent out the reserves last night, or Everton should be awarded the win in line with the PL statements at the start of the season.

    Irrespective of how this virus arrived at MC, a sporting penalty might actually concentrate the minds of the chairmen, in how they are allowing clubs to control bubbles of players and coaches.

    For some reason, sportsmen in general, and footballers in particular, seem incredibly susceptible to this virus. And not just because they’re regularly tested.
    I agree entirely that rules agreed at the start should be upheld (even though I thought the rule problematic when it came out).

    It is fairly obvious that footballers should be more susceptible, their job means they are practising only limited social distancing and doing lots of travel. Since March I have met about an average of three or four people a week, mostly outdoors, and not travelled more than about 40 miles. A typical footballer is meeting 30 teammates and coaches, 30 opponents, half a dozen officials, doctors, physios and travelling a few hundred miles most weeks. Of course they will catch it more often, regardless of their social lives.
    They are perhaps more likely to get it at all those private gatherings and sex parties in their social lives. :smile:
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462
    ydoethur said:

    Ydoethur, would it not be useful to give those in what old people like me call the VIth form a crash course is doing the tests?

    Do you mean for themselves, or for others?
    Both; they are not much younger than many of the nurses who are doing the work already and, like their forefather's I've no doubt they'd 'step up to the plate' if circumstances demanded it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    Hmm. Looks like Starmer's first big challenge.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/28/starmer-high-profile-labour-rebellion-brexit-deal-vote

    "Keir Starmer is facing a high-profile rebellion against Labour’s Brexit position on the eve of the vote in parliament, as prominent MPs including John McDonnell and Clive Lewis accused him of “falling into the trap of rallying around this rotten deal”.

    Labour is likely to contain a major rebellion of frontbench MPs but an increasing number of prominent supporters are urging Starmer to change course. Backbenchers have also raised concerns on private WhatsApp groups that Labour’s endorsement for the deal has been given without the legislation being published.

    Those who signed the Labour statement urging Starmer not to support the deal come from across the political spectrum, including the former shadow chancellor McDonnell and Ben Bradshaw, a former cabinet minister who is a staunch supporter of Starmer.

    “This deal is a substantial downgrade of the UK’s relationship with the EU,” the statement warns, “and is designed to open the door to rampant economic deregulation – a loss of rights and protections for workers, the environment, food standards and many other areas of life.”

    "“This deal is a substantial downgrade of the UK’s relationship with the EU,” the statement warns"

    And Labour rebels propose to upgrade that downgrade - how, exactly?
  • eek said:

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    I agree, Robert. The world knows how to do vaccinations. The only thing missing for the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines is the cold distribution chain. Not an issue with more standard vaccines.
    Yet to see if the Oxford one is any good though, signs so far are that it is crap.
    Any evidence to go with that or just your gut instinct.

    It actually doesn't need to be brilliant to be good enough- if it reduces the chance of needing a hospital visit to at worst a day or two in bed with reduced transmission it's more than good enough
    Gut instinct and severe lack of any news other than hyping. If it had been any good we would have been bombarded with leaks from the dummies like Hancock, Gove, Williamson , etc. Their silence on it speaks volumes. At best my guess would be that they will fudge and approve and it will be UK only , it will be nothing like as good as the other vaccines. I am hoping not to get a second rate vaccine just because these idiots could not run a bath.
  • Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Implicit in the GFA, but made explicit in the Withdrawal Agreement is the recognition of shared sovereignty over the disputed six counties.

    It does seem as if Dublin is more positive about the lives there than London.

    With the prosperity south of the border, and decline in religious sectarianism on both sides (though obviously some way to go still!) reunification is a matter of time, just awaiting a plebiscite. I think that the six counties would then become a devolved community of RoI rather than a devolved community of UK.
    Sharing sovereignty is one thing.

    A bit more of sharing the bills to the Exchequer would be even better.

    This seems an ok start but I suspect the Republic is paying a tiny fraction of what the UK is paying.

    Paying for the "nice" trivialities while not paying for the bread and butter main bills is a fake kind of generosity. It reminds me of this Friends scene from the 3:30 mark where Rachel's dad pays for a full meal but leaves a small tip and then Ross pays for just the tip. Her dad is not a sympathetic character but his reaction is fair enough.

    https://youtu.be/zmfdfiOWWts
  • malcolmg22malcolmg22 Posts: 327
    edited December 2020
    nichomar said:

    How many of the 62’new’ trade deals are actually new and will bring new trade? The front page of the express implies that it’s new business if not true it’s a disgraceful lie and con job.

    None are new and I would hazard a guess that none are at best as good as we had previously.
    PS: there maybe some obscure island somewhere that is new. I have asked before if anyone could laud us with all teh new benefits of these deals but got total silence and lack of replies.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited December 2020

    ydoethur said:

    Ydoethur, would it not be useful to give those in what old people like me call the VIth form a crash course is doing the tests?

    Do you mean for themselves, or for others?
    Both; they are not much younger than many of the nurses who are doing the work already and, like their forefather's I've no doubt they'd 'step up to the plate' if circumstances demanded it.
    Not all schools have a sixth form. Mine doesn’t, for example.

    But even if we could/did do that, wouldn’t it rather defeat the object of having them in schools so they can study if we have to take them out of lessons to do tests?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    I'd be more reassured by some sort of plan, like the very detailed one already published in the US.

    I notice all those media reports of AZN vaccine approved today are bollocks.
    The share price has opened nearly 5% up, though
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    felix said:

    I received my new EHIC yesterday - it is for UK pensioners who live in the EU.

    Good keepsake if as much use as a chocolate teapot now, you have 2 days to use it.
    Not true, they will be recognized until they run out, not linked to Jan 1 replaced eventually by something for those who’s preconditions exclude them from insurance.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    I received my new EHIC yesterday - it is for UK pensioners who live in the EU.

    Good keepsake if as much use as a chocolate teapot now, you have 2 days to use it.

    felix said:

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    I agree, Robert. The world knows how to do vaccinations. The only thing missing for the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines is the cold distribution chain. Not an issue with more standard vaccines.
    Yet to see if the Oxford one is any good though, signs so far are that it is crap.
    Great we have such eminent scientists posting on PB
    From what I have read this year I am likely to be as right as the "experts". They have not covered themselves in glory. If you have nothing to say then best to keep your trap shut.
    Scientist and moderator now I see.
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    I'd be more reassured by some sort of plan, like the very detailed one already published in the US.

    I notice all those media reports of AZN vaccine approved today are bollocks.
    The share price has opened nearly 5% up, though
    The media now updated their reports to perhaps as early as tomorrow....they are just guessing.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421
    I wondered if this article had been discussed here at all? Similar sort of betting markets to next Cabinet minister out, etc.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2020/dec/28/the-kieran-trippier-case-and-why-some-betting-markets-should-not-be-allowed
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ydoethur, would it not be useful to give those in what old people like me call the VIth form a crash course is doing the tests?

    Do you mean for themselves, or for others?
    Both; they are not much younger than many of the nurses who are doing the work already and, like their forefather's I've no doubt they'd 'step up to the plate' if circumstances demanded it.
    Not all schools have a sixth form. Mine doesn’t, for example.

    But even if we could/did do that, wouldn’t it rather defeat the object of having them in schools so they can study if we have to take them out of lessons to do tests?
    There are hundreds of parents. Many available.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    philiph said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ydoethur, would it not be useful to give those in what old people like me call the VIth form a crash course is doing the tests?

    Do you mean for themselves, or for others?
    Both; they are not much younger than many of the nurses who are doing the work already and, like their forefather's I've no doubt they'd 'step up to the plate' if circumstances demanded it.
    Not all schools have a sixth form. Mine doesn’t, for example.

    But even if we could/did do that, wouldn’t it rather defeat the object of having them in schools so they can study if we have to take them out of lessons to do tests?
    There are hundreds of parents. Many available.
    Who would need to be DBS checked.
  • Who let Private Fraser write the thread header?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Who let Private Fraser write the thread header?

    He spelled it ‘Frazer.’
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    I received my new EHIC yesterday - it is for UK pensioners who live in the EU.

    Good keepsake if as much use as a chocolate teapot now, you have 2 days to use it.
    Not true, they will be recognized until they run out, not linked to Jan 1 replaced eventually by something for those who’s preconditions exclude them from insurance.
    MalcG gets it wrong - maybe he should stick to what he knows - apparently the science of vaccines :)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    Who let Private Fraser write the thread header?

    As an undertaker he would be well qualified to opine on the current crisis
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Interesting batch of predictions although many are not that well defined. I am similarly pessimistic about the start of 2021 at least.

    It will not be hard for Cf to convince herself that someone in labour regrets voting for the Brexit deal.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ydoethur, would it not be useful to give those in what old people like me call the VIth form a crash course is doing the tests?

    Do you mean for themselves, or for others?
    Both; they are not much younger than many of the nurses who are doing the work already and, like their forefather's I've no doubt they'd 'step up to the plate' if circumstances demanded it.
    Not all schools have a sixth form. Mine doesn’t, for example.

    But even if we could/did do that, wouldn’t it rather defeat the object of having them in schools so they can study if we have to take them out of lessons to do tests?
    There are hundreds of parents. Many available.
    Who would need to be DBS checked.
    And? Barriers are for navigating.
  • A great piece from Cyclefree and eminently realistic:
    1. The Pox is stronger than ever yet too many people seem utterly bored of even trying to keep themselves safe
    2 - 4. Of course. This government has repeatedly proven its ability to do the basics whilst endlessly ramping what a brilliant job it is doing.
    5. This government is corrupt. This government gets away with open corruption and thinks it is clever / we are stupid so absolutely will keep pushing the envelope to see just how outrageous they can be
    6. The NHS sounds like its in the midst of a catastrophic combination of a mass surge in cases, indifference through government policy and exhausted staff. Number 10 will undoubtedly start briefing against the doctors again. Slackers.
    7. Retail and hospitality are fucked. It won't completely collapse but it it going to continue to be pretty savagely pared back. Entertainment is the sector that has been completely ignored by government and looking at the Brexit deal continues to be. Watch venues shut and the skilled jobs in the sector lost - and more twatty adverts imploring creative arts dossers to retrain as customs officials.
    8. Sunak can't win. He couldn't find enough money to keep everyone happy if he wanted to, and will end up pleasing very few as this stretches on into year 2.
    9. The Brexit deal will continue to reveal more practicalities as it gets implemented and expect more outrage from more of the groups who had been sold it as salvation. And more patronising sneer from the Tories.
    10. I can't predict America. They're mad
    11. China? Or Russia...?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    philiph said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ydoethur, would it not be useful to give those in what old people like me call the VIth form a crash course is doing the tests?

    Do you mean for themselves, or for others?
    Both; they are not much younger than many of the nurses who are doing the work already and, like their forefather's I've no doubt they'd 'step up to the plate' if circumstances demanded it.
    Not all schools have a sixth form. Mine doesn’t, for example.

    But even if we could/did do that, wouldn’t it rather defeat the object of having them in schools so they can study if we have to take them out of lessons to do tests?
    There are hundreds of parents. Many available.
    Who would need to be DBS checked.
    And? Barriers are for navigating.
    It takes around a month. Which is why I said that it would have needed announcing in November to be live from next week.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Scott_xP said:

    Who let Private Fraser write the thread header?

    As an undertaker he would be well qualified to opine on the current crisis
    To him, What crisis?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710
    A rather downbeat header from @Cyclefree.

    I don't think it will be quite that bad, though there will be societal stresses as some are vaccinated while others are not. Being vaccinated isn't a get out of jail free card. Not least is the problem of new mutations.

    It seems as if there is a @HYUFD like love of calling out the troops to distribute vaccines and swab everyone that slightly neglects the depleted nature of our forces and their day jobs.

    Vaccination will roll out, but at 2 doses each, it is the call and recall system that needs the organising more than driving a lorry from point A to point B. It is a marathon task, and the vaccination staff skilled, but also fatigued. They have been working hard on other duties all year too.

    I expect there will be admissions delays and diverted ambulances. That is normal in a British winter, due to our lower bed base than comparable countries. They won't be refused though elective surgery will cease, as wards and staff are redeployed again, and again.

    As Sunak sees the bills come in, he is on the horns of a dilemma. Should he break the government finances? Or should he break a lot of small and large businesses?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Who let Private Fraser write the thread header?

    Better Frazer than the optimistic twaddle that brought us it will all be over by Xmas.
  • Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Implicit in the GFA, but made explicit in the Withdrawal Agreement is the recognition of shared sovereignty over the disputed six counties.

    It does seem as if Dublin is more positive about the lives there than London.

    With the prosperity south of the border, and decline in religious sectarianism on both sides (though obviously some way to go still!) reunification is a matter of time, just awaiting a plebiscite. I think that the six counties would then become a devolved community of RoI rather than a devolved community of UK.
    Sharing sovereignty is one thing.

    A bit more of sharing the bills to the Exchequer would be even better.

    This seems an ok start but I suspect the Republic is paying a tiny fraction of what the UK is paying.

    Paying for the "nice" trivialities while not paying for the bread and butter main bills is a fake kind of generosity. It reminds me of this Friends scene from the 3:30 mark where Rachel's dad pays for a full meal but leaves a small tip and then Ross pays for just the tip. Her dad is not a sympathetic character but his reaction is fair enough.

    https://youtu.be/zmfdfiOWWts
    And there was me thinking one of the tangible benefits of Brexit might be the end of absurd analogies for foreign policy......how naive I am at times.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Today will see the Spanish Cabinet approve a raft of measures related to the EU-UK deal, covering jobs, the recognition of official qualifications, access to universities and unemployment benefits. El País
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,996
    edited December 2020
    felix said:
    Not such great news for the UK as it is currently constituted though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    philiph said:

    To him, What crisis?

    That depends on whether he imports the coffins I guess
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Someone sent me this. It's funny! (sorry if it's already been posted)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ctZPNppUt4
  • Foxy said:

    A rather downbeat header from @Cyclefree.

    I don't think it will be quite that bad, though there will be societal stresses as some are vaccinated while others are not. Being vaccinated isn't a get out of jail free card. Not least is the problem of new mutations.

    It seems as if there is a @HYUFD like love of calling out the troops to distribute vaccines and swab everyone that slightly neglects the depleted nature of our forces and their day jobs.

    Vaccination will roll out, but at 2 doses each, it is the call and recall system that needs the organising more than driving a lorry from point A to point B. It is a marathon task, and the vaccination staff skilled, but also fatigued. They have been working hard on other duties all year too.

    I expect there will be admissions delays and diverted ambulances. That is normal in a British winter, due to our lower bed base than comparable countries. They won't be refused though elective surgery will cease, as wards and staff are redeployed again, and again.

    As Sunak sees the bills come in, he is on the horns of a dilemma. Should he break the government finances? Or should he break a lot of small and large businesses?

    It is inefficient that trained medical staff are being asked to staff the call and recall system. We were promised we would tackle this disease on the scale of a war footing, and had the best part of a million volunteers sign up to help, yet are extremely reluctant to provide significant extra people to any task that would benefit from it. Why?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    Could the other firms not make more of the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine under license? If so, govts should band together and make it clear this has to happen or facilities will be requisitioned to make it happen regardless.
    As I understand it - Pfizer promised 10m doses by end of year. This was then downgraded to 4m doses less than a month later. Not seen a more recent figure.

    Their manufacturing must be under enormous pressure - there may also be shortages of needed ingredients.

    We should view govt plans as best case, everything goes well, scenario.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Scott_xP said:

    philiph said:

    To him, What crisis?

    That depends on whether he imports the coffins I guess
    Or recycles them to save money .....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Implicit in the GFA, but made explicit in the Withdrawal Agreement is the recognition of shared sovereignty over the disputed six counties.

    It does seem as if Dublin is more positive about the lives there than London.

    With the prosperity south of the border, and decline in religious sectarianism on both sides (though obviously some way to go still!) reunification is a matter of time, just awaiting a plebiscite. I think that the six counties would then become a devolved community of RoI rather than a devolved community of UK.
    Sharing sovereignty is one thing.

    A bit more of sharing the bills to the Exchequer would be even better.

    This seems an ok start but I suspect the Republic is paying a tiny fraction of what the UK is paying.

    Paying for the "nice" trivialities while not paying for the bread and butter main bills is a fake kind of generosity. It reminds me of this Friends scene from the 3:30 mark where Rachel's dad pays for a full meal but leaves a small tip and then Ross pays for just the tip. Her dad is not a sympathetic character but his reaction is fair enough.

    ://youtu.be/zmfdfiOWWts
    Good at winning hearts and minds though, which helps with subsequent plebiscite. The hardiners of the DUP won't melt that easily, but there are others more susceptible to a bit of Irish wooing. Smart moves from Dublin.
  • rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    Could the other firms not make more of the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine under license? If so, govts should band together and make it clear this has to happen or facilities will be requisitioned to make it happen regardless.
    As I understand it - Pfizer promised 10m doses by end of year. This was then downgraded to 4m doses less than a month later. Not seen a more recent figure.

    Their manufacturing must be under enormous pressure - there may also be shortages of needed ingredients.

    We should view govt plans as best case, everything goes well, scenario.
    But why cant GSK or someone produce more Pfizer vaccines? Again we were promised a war scale effort to tackle this, demand it is done or requisition the capability.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Foxy said:

    I expect there will be admissions delays and diverted ambulances. That is normal in a British winter, due to our lower bed base than comparable countries. They won't be refused though elective surgery will cease, as wards and staff are redeployed again, and again.

    https://twitter.com/Cameron71708731/status/1343612941782888448

    I heard an interesting take from a US colleague yesterday. His daughter is a paramedic, and they are on standby at vaccination sites because the nurses giving the injections are not qualified to intervene if there is any adverse reactions.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Rather miserable and depressing predictions.

    No offence but I hope you're wrong.

    I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)

    Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.

    If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.

    The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.

    My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
    Could the other firms not make more of the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine under license? If so, govts should band together and make it clear this has to happen or facilities will be requisitioned to make it happen regardless.
    As I understand it - Pfizer promised 10m doses by end of year. This was then downgraded to 4m doses less than a month later. Not seen a more recent figure.

    Their manufacturing must be under enormous pressure - there may also be shortages of needed ingredients.

    We should view govt plans as best case, everything goes well, scenario.
    But why cant GSK or someone produce more Pfizer vaccines? Again we were promised a war scale effort to tackle this, demand it is done or requisition the capability.
    Yeah, publish the recipe and let us home brew vaccine in the shed.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    I expect there will be admissions delays and diverted ambulances. That is normal in a British winter, due to our lower bed base than comparable countries. They won't be refused though elective surgery will cease, as wards and staff are redeployed again, and again.

    https://twitter.com/Cameron71708731/status/1343612941782888448

    I heard an interesting take from a US colleague yesterday. His daughter is a paramedic, and they are on standby at vaccination sites because the nurses giving the injections are not qualified to intervene if there is any adverse reactions.
    How the hell did this happen?

    https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-german-care-home-workers-accidentally-given-vaccine-overdose/a-56077717
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,239
    OT: I've been pointed back to Reggie Perrin this morning. For some reason it seems relevant.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHOqgtCyws8
This discussion has been closed.