As I posted earlier this is a Canada style FTA and the polling we have shows most Scots would be happy with a Canada style FTA.
Polling from when? About a theoretical deal?
Clueless. A fine choice to Chair the Association.
Yougov asked 'Imagine Britain left the EU on these terms:
Britain leaves the EU and instead agrees a free trade deal with the EU, like Canada. Britain can export goods to the EU without paying tariffs, but the deal does not include services, so does not allow British industries like financial services to export freely to the EU. Britain has full control over our borders and immigration, does not have to follow any EU regulations and does not have to contribute any money to the EU.
Do you think this outcome would be good or bad for Britain?'
UK voters overall were 50% happy with this outcome and only 25% unhappy.
Scots were 44% happy and only 29% unhappy.
In fact Londoners were more unhappy than Scots with only 41% of London voters happy with a Canada style deal and 32% unhappy.
Can you imagine the gnashing of false teeth when the film of Boris' life is made in a decade or two?
Won the Mayoralty twice Won the referendum Won the Tory Leadership Won a huge majority Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Of that 55% who voted no, a good quarter must be voting Yes in recent polls.
And you are as usual completly forgetting that the deal we have is an atrocious one which will even piss off the fishing communities in the Tory seats as well as many of the professionals in the cushier suburbs. That's two of your favourite Union voter communities. And that's before we see how the export through Dover actually works out. That's the fisherfolk and farming vote at huge risk from your point of view.
Irrespective of your scrabbling, there is the serious point that we have all in Scotland been waiting to see what happens, and even now Brexit is still not happening yet. There are far too many open ends yet.
All recent polls were taken with the presumption of No Deal so are now out of date.
So I think it will be a Deal most Scots can live with including professionals in the suburbs.
As for fishing communities they will welcome the fact they will get more of their own catch, certainly that will be better for them than the contemptible attitude of you and your fellow nationalists in having the audacity to criticise this deal when you would have kept Scotland firmly within the CFP
Your party sold out the Scottish fishermen and has been trying to blame everyone else since. You are utterly shameless.
And that poll is fouir years and more old.
No, the SNP sold out Scottish fishermen by pushing to keep Scotland in the CFP, hence fishing port seats like Banff and Buchan the SNP have held for decades went Tory at the 2017 and 2019 general elections.
That poll remains valid now, show me one poll most Scots oppose a Canada style trade deal?
You are literally clueless - a fine qualification for the Chair of a Tory Association.
People voted Tory in the years that followed the referendum specifically to deliver Brexit.
Now that Brexit is here - and does the opposite for them of how you advertised it - do you really think they will keep voting for you?
I know you and a few other parrots will insist its a great deal for fishing and these fishermen don't know what they are talking about. But in the real world you are toast now that promises and rhetoric splat against the wall of reality.
Again and in fairness have you read the Institute's report on fishing
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Setting aside your tankism regarding self-determination, you need to see past the Boris Bluster about his great deal vs no deal. The deal is shit for the people it was sold to like fishermen - at least that's what the fishing industry is saying in its initial response.
You and the blue rinse brigade can keep telling them its great, they will tell you in detail why its not at which point I anticipate the line once again being wheeled out that we've had enough of experts.
The feel is as important as the fact. Fishing was billed as a glorious stand for Blighty despite it being worth tuppence ha'penny. It was small but important. The dismissing of Scottish interests is also small but also important. Northern people don't tend to forget being sneered at and told their opinions are irrelevant, especially by southern gentlemen like yourself.
Have you read the institute for government report on the Fishing agreement
It is very interesting and should be reading for all those trying to make political points on it
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
There will be many like our own Scott who are bereft at leaving the EU and will fight on in their quest to rejoin while there will be a much smaller number of no dealers who would only be satisfied with full throttle no deal
However, I genuinely believe the country will move on and adapt to the changes and hopefully forge new relationships and ways of trade. It will be very different and there are bound to be ups and downs
Of course the good socialists in our midst like Polly Toynbee will rage at the difficulty she may have in going backwards and forwards to her Tuscan Villa second home, while the populace from the red wall areas will be able to go for their two weeks in the sun in Spain completely unaffected by our leaving
Rushi Sunak says today that the deal can bring people together and in a large part I think he is right
Also Boris has confounded us all again and just when you think he is on the way out he comes up with the goods
You underestimate Boris Johnson at your peril and I do not see him going anywhere soon
Big G, not sure where my grandparents, working class Tories who retired to Spain on their modest savings where the EU allowed them free access to Spanish healthcare, lie on your spectrum of Hampstead hypocrites to cheerful holidaying proletarians. Grateful for your expert guidance, perhaps you can find it in your Ladybird book of boring tabloid clichés?
Presumably they are Spanish citizens by now, or have acquired some form of residency.
No use to my grandparents, who are dead. No use to me, either.
Strangely enough, people manage to retire to foreign countries all the time. Even ones not part of the EU.
Of course. The EU certainly made it a lot easier. Personally I have no interest in retiring to the EU anyway. But to pretend that Brexit hasn't reduced people's freedoms in this area would be absurd. I am a big fan of freedom, there was a time when the Tories were too, hard to imagine as it is now.
A year ago I predicted that Nut Nuts would leave Downing Street this year, with Bozo to follow in 2021.
Still in play?
My prediction for 2021 is that the Tories will lose their mayoralties in the West Midlands and Teesside. Labour clean sweep for city region mayors.
There is literally no chance at all that Ben Houchen doesn't win a second term in Teesside: 1. He's a brilliant communicator. Embarrassingly he gets paid less than his team due to the poverty pay set up by Osborne but his team are fabulous at messaging and worth the money. 2. He has actually delivered against key campaign promises. Hard to argue that he is ineffective. 3. His Labour opponent is Jessie-Joe Jacobs who is brilliant about making sure that Jessie-Joe Jacobs is the only name you need to remember when thinking about Jessie-Joe Jacobs. Nobody in the party has much idea what she stands for other than the promotion of Jessie-Joe Jacobs and many of the more casual activists have already refused to work with her
By 31 December 2021 PB remainers will still be banging on about Brexit
Well you don’t seem to be able to leave it alone this morning.
And given the whole 4 year review thing, the debate ain't going anywhere for long. Is it a one-off, or will there be a review pencilled in for every 4 years? If the second, heaven help us all...
Brexit is a process where we will drift off gradually from the EU
Where will this process of drifting apart leave Northern Ireland?
What does the border look like, between an independent Scotland and England, if the former wishes to join the EU?
This question will play a big part in a second referendum, in a way that it didn’t in the first one.
There is a certain logic to this as I tried (and failed) to repeatedly point out in the cake and eat it approach to an EU deal.
However just as it was disingenuous to claim we could leave the EU without economic costs, so it is equally the case for Scotland leaving the UK. A better argument would be state that the gains in being part of the EU single market outweigh the loss of the UK one. Then just provide the evidence.
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Setting aside your tankism regarding self-determination, you need to see past the Boris Bluster about his great deal vs no deal. The deal is shit for the people it was sold to like fishermen - at least that's what the fishing industry is saying in its initial response.
You and the blue rinse brigade can keep telling them its great, they will tell you in detail why its not at which point I anticipate the line once again being wheeled out that we've had enough of experts.
The feel is as important as the fact. Fishing was billed as a glorious stand for Blighty despite it being worth tuppence ha'penny. It was small but important. The dismissing of Scottish interests is also small but also important. Northern people don't tend to forget being sneered at and told their opinions are irrelevant, especially by southern gentlemen like yourself.
Have you read the institute for government report on the Fishing agreement
It is very interesting and should be reading for all those trying to make political points on it
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
I see you have a new mantra for the day (week, month?). Makes a change from going on and on about Drakeford I guess.
Can you imagine the gnashing of false teeth when the film of Boris' life is made in a decade or two?
Won the Mayoralty twice Won the referendum Won the Tory Leadership Won a huge majority Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
It is a point to which they have no answer whatsoever other than driving them to despair
There will be many like our own Scott who are bereft at leaving the EU and will fight on in their quest to rejoin while there will be a much smaller number of no dealers who would only be satisfied with full throttle no deal
However, I genuinely believe the country will move on and adapt to the changes and hopefully forge new relationships and ways of trade. It will be very different and there are bound to be ups and downs
Of course the good socialists in our midst like Polly Toynbee will rage at the difficulty she may have in going backwards and forwards to her Tuscan Villa second home, while the populace from the red wall areas will be able to go for their two weeks in the sun in Spain completely unaffected by our leaving
Rushi Sunak says today that the deal can bring people together and in a large part I think he is right
Also Boris has confounded us all again and just when you think he is on the way out he comes up with the goods
You underestimate Boris Johnson at your peril and I do not see him going anywhere soon
Big G, not sure where my grandparents, working class Tories who retired to Spain on their modest savings where the EU allowed them free access to Spanish healthcare, lie on your spectrum of Hampstead hypocrites to cheerful holidaying proletarians. Grateful for your expert guidance, perhaps you can find it in your Ladybird book of boring tabloid clichés?
I do not know the detail on ex pats living abroad permanently but to be fair the point about the vast majority of ordinary folks enjoying their annual holiday in Spain or Portugal exactly as before is valid
And no need for silly comments
Sorry Big G but your comment really grated. A lot of people most of whom are far from the champagne socialists of your imagination have had their lives and hopes for their own future turned upside down by Brexit.
I do understand the pain of many but in the end we must move on
Like anti EU people did after 1975 you mean? The UK's relationship with the EU isn't going to go away as a topic of political debate. I would suggest you make peace with that fact if you want to argue about politics with strangers on the Internet!
At my age I am perfectly at peace and it is highly unlikely I will witness the UK rejoining the EU in my lifetime
Quite possibly not in my lifetime either (and I was born in 1975). And I wouldn't be advocating we rejoin soon anyway. But it's not going to go away as a topic of debate. We will be talking about UK-EU relations a lot more than we did before 2016, that is for sure.
By 31 December 2021 PB remainers will still be banging on about Brexit
Well you don’t seem to be able to leave it alone this morning.
And given the whole 4 year review thing, the debate ain't going anywhere for long. Is it a one-off, or will there be a review pencilled in for every 4 years? If the second, heaven help us all...
Brexit is a process where we will drift off gradually from the EU
Where will this process of drifting apart leave Northern Ireland?
What does the border look like, between an independent Scotland and England, if the former wishes to join the EU?
This question will play a big part in a second referendum, in a way that it didn’t in the first one.
A solution has already been found in Northern Ireland. Ulster manages to retain both EEA/CU and CTA membership. Scotland will be able to do the same.
A more accurate way of looking at it would be "UK opts to speed travel, while EU chooses to make it more difficult".
An even more accurate way of putting it would be "Travelling to our nearest neighbours gets more bureaucratic for Britons than it was when we were in the EU. So does coming back again. All because the Brexiteers lied"
Interestingly, The Times is reporting that even now Blair is so disliked by senior royals because of the way he dealt with the death of Diana, that they don't want to give him a top gong, and this is causing problems for Brown and May who are bedblocked. This is of course an excellent situation, because Brown does not deserve,nor should get one, just because it comes up with the rations.
The man who fecked the economy deserves our opprobrium not our lauding.
Labour's going to be in a bit of a tight spot if the Brexiter rebellion is any way significant. The more that Labour votes help carry the day, the more the story would be covered as Labour playing a significant role in Brexit.
By 31 December 2021 PB remainers will still be banging on about Brexit
Well you don’t seem to be able to leave it alone this morning.
And given the whole 4 year review thing, the debate ain't going anywhere for long. Is it a one-off, or will there be a review pencilled in for every 4 years? If the second, heaven help us all...
Brexit is a process where we will drift off gradually from the EU
Where will this process of drifting apart leave Northern Ireland?
What does the border look like, between an independent Scotland and England, if the former wishes to join the EU?
This question will play a big part in a second referendum, in a way that it didn’t in the first one.
A solution has already been found in Northern Ireland. Ulster manages to retain both EEA/CU and CTA membership. Scotland will be able to do the same.
Did I miss "The Troubles" in Scotland?
The Ireland "deal" was very specific to its circumstances.
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Setting aside your tankism regarding self-determination, you need to see past the Boris Bluster about his great deal vs no deal. The deal is shit for the people it was sold to like fishermen - at least that's what the fishing industry is saying in its initial response.
You and the blue rinse brigade can keep telling them its great, they will tell you in detail why its not at which point I anticipate the line once again being wheeled out that we've had enough of experts.
The feel is as important as the fact. Fishing was billed as a glorious stand for Blighty despite it being worth tuppence ha'penny. It was small but important. The dismissing of Scottish interests is also small but also important. Northern people don't tend to forget being sneered at and told their opinions are irrelevant, especially by southern gentlemen like yourself.
Have you read the institute for government report on the Fishing agreement
It is very interesting and should be reading for all those trying to make political points on it
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
I see you have a new mantra for the day (week, month?). Makes a change from going on and on about Drakeford I guess.
Interestingly, The Times is reporting that even now Blair is so disliked by senior royals because of the way he dealt with the death of Diana, that they don't want to give him a top gong, and this is causing problems for Brown and May who are bedblocked. This is of course an excellent situation, because Brown does not deserve,nor should get one, just because it comes up with the rations.
The man who fecked the economy deserves our opprobrium not our lauding.
Aren’t they both eligible for the Thistle, as Scots?
On the broader point of why we're still talking about Brexit, I'd say it's understandable. We're in a strange four-day limbo period after a deal, trying to avoid the elephant in the room, when many people are talking about something as if it's already over, when it hasn't even begun.
Interestingly, The Times is reporting that even now Blair is so disliked by senior royals because of the way he dealt with the death of Diana, that they don't want to give him a top gong, and this is causing problems for Brown and May who are bedblocked. This is of course an excellent situation, because Brown does not deserve,nor should get one, just because it comes up with the rations.
The man who fecked the economy deserves our opprobrium not our lauding.
Aren’t they both eligible for the Thistle, as Scots?
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Setting aside your tankism regarding self-determination, you need to see past the Boris Bluster about his great deal vs no deal. The deal is shit for the people it was sold to like fishermen - at least that's what the fishing industry is saying in its initial response.
You and the blue rinse brigade can keep telling them its great, they will tell you in detail why its not at which point I anticipate the line once again being wheeled out that we've had enough of experts.
The feel is as important as the fact. Fishing was billed as a glorious stand for Blighty despite it being worth tuppence ha'penny. It was small but important. The dismissing of Scottish interests is also small but also important. Northern people don't tend to forget being sneered at and told their opinions are irrelevant, especially by southern gentlemen like yourself.
Have you read the institute for government report on the Fishing agreement
It is very interesting and should be reading for all those trying to make political points on it
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
I see you have a new mantra for the day (week, month?). Makes a change from going on and on about Drakeford I guess.
Just as a matter of interest have you read it
No, you’re constant fluffing for it has put me off somewhat.
There will be many like our own Scott who are bereft at leaving the EU and will fight on in their quest to rejoin while there will be a much smaller number of no dealers who would only be satisfied with full throttle no deal
However, I genuinely believe the country will move on and adapt to the changes and hopefully forge new relationships and ways of trade. It will be very different and there are bound to be ups and downs
Of course the good socialists in our midst like Polly Toynbee will rage at the difficulty she may have in going backwards and forwards to her Tuscan Villa second home, while the populace from the red wall areas will be able to go for their two weeks in the sun in Spain completely unaffected by our leaving
Rushi Sunak says today that the deal can bring people together and in a large part I think he is right
Also Boris has confounded us all again and just when you think he is on the way out he comes up with the goods
You underestimate Boris Johnson at your peril and I do not see him going anywhere soon
Big G, not sure where my grandparents, working class Tories who retired to Spain on their modest savings where the EU allowed them free access to Spanish healthcare, lie on your spectrum of Hampstead hypocrites to cheerful holidaying proletarians. Grateful for your expert guidance, perhaps you can find it in your Ladybird book of boring tabloid clichés?
I do not know the detail on ex pats living abroad permanently but to be fair the point about the vast majority of ordinary folks enjoying their annual holiday in Spain or Portugal exactly as before is valid
And no need for silly comments
Sorry Big G but your comment really grated. A lot of people most of whom are far from the champagne socialists of your imagination have had their lives and hopes for their own future turned upside down by Brexit.
I do understand the pain of many but in the end we must move on
Like anti EU people did after 1975 you mean? The UK's relationship with the EU isn't going to go away as a topic of political debate. I would suggest you make peace with that fact if you want to argue about politics with strangers on the Internet!
At my age I am perfectly at peace and it is highly unlikely I will witness the UK rejoining the EU in my lifetime
Quite possibly not in my lifetime either (and I was born in 1975). And I wouldn't be advocating we rejoin soon anyway. But it's not going to go away as a topic of debate. We will be talking about UK-EU relations a lot more than we did before 2016, that is for sure.
It will fade over time but it is very raw to many at present
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Setting aside your tankism regarding self-determination, you need to see past the Boris Bluster about his great deal vs no deal. The deal is shit for the people it was sold to like fishermen - at least that's what the fishing industry is saying in its initial response.
You and the blue rinse brigade can keep telling them its great, they will tell you in detail why its not at which point I anticipate the line once again being wheeled out that we've had enough of experts.
The feel is as important as the fact. Fishing was billed as a glorious stand for Blighty despite it being worth tuppence ha'penny. It was small but important. The dismissing of Scottish interests is also small but also important. Northern people don't tend to forget being sneered at and told their opinions are irrelevant, especially by southern gentlemen like yourself.
Have you read the institute for government report on the Fishing agreement
It is very interesting and should be reading for all those trying to make political points on it
Or in other words, we should set aside the opinions of the fishing industry on fishing and listen to someone else patronisingly telling them how little their know about their own industry.
Again - the Fishermen have attacked the deal based on its impact on them as fishermen. SO you think we just tell them to read the IoG report instead?
This isn't going to play well for a Tory Party who have still had enough of experts.
There will be many like our own Scott who are bereft at leaving the EU and will fight on in their quest to rejoin while there will be a much smaller number of no dealers who would only be satisfied with full throttle no deal
However, I genuinely believe the country will move on and adapt to the changes and hopefully forge new relationships and ways of trade. It will be very different and there are bound to be ups and downs
Of course the good socialists in our midst like Polly Toynbee will rage at the difficulty she may have in going backwards and forwards to her Tuscan Villa second home, while the populace from the red wall areas will be able to go for their two weeks in the sun in Spain completely unaffected by our leaving
Rushi Sunak says today that the deal can bring people together and in a large part I think he is right
Also Boris has confounded us all again and just when you think he is on the way out he comes up with the goods
You underestimate Boris Johnson at your peril and I do not see him going anywhere soon
Big G, not sure where my grandparents, working class Tories who retired to Spain on their modest savings where the EU allowed them free access to Spanish healthcare, lie on your spectrum of Hampstead hypocrites to cheerful holidaying proletarians. Grateful for your expert guidance, perhaps you can find it in your Ladybird book of boring tabloid clichés?
Like me they are guaranteed to keep free access to healthcare and UK pesion, etc - I remain a UK citizen and have already got my new residence documents guaranteeing all the rights I came with in perpetuity.including that of voting in Spanish local elections while keeping my vote in UK elections. The Spanish government is very keen to keep British people working and retiring to Spain. for new retirees the pensions remain the same but the healthcare cover goes although for €60 a month they can get full access to the Spanish Health service after 1 year I believe. I suspect there will be longer-term a bilateral agreement to provide full healthcare as it is in the interests of both countries but I may be wrong on this.
Interestingly, The Times is reporting that even now Blair is so disliked by senior royals because of the way he dealt with the death of Diana, that they don't want to give him a top gong, and this is causing problems for Brown and May who are bedblocked. This is of course an excellent situation, because Brown does not deserve,nor should get one, just because it comes up with the rations.
The man who fecked the economy deserves our opprobrium not our lauding.
Most of Blair's actions were a result of him trying to protect the institution of the monarchy! No good deed goes unpunished.
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
That fishermen are unhappy with the deal? This is a bland statement from the Scottish Fishermen's Federation but it doesn't seem to be happy ?
By 31 December 2021 PB remainers will still be banging on about Brexit
Well you don’t seem to be able to leave it alone this morning.
And given the whole 4 year review thing, the debate ain't going anywhere for long. Is it a one-off, or will there be a review pencilled in for every 4 years? If the second, heaven help us all...
Brexit is a process where we will drift off gradually from the EU
Where will this process of drifting apart leave Northern Ireland?
What does the border look like, between an independent Scotland and England, if the former wishes to join the EU?
This question will play a big part in a second referendum, in a way that it didn’t in the first one.
A solution has already been found in Northern Ireland. Ulster manages to retain both EEA/CU and CTA membership. Scotland will be able to do the same.
Did I miss "The Troubles" in Scotland?
The Ireland "deal" was very specific to its circumstances.
HMG rewarding the Armalite not the ballot box: ‘it’s what we do!’
Not quite the sort of numbers Boris Johnson would want, I think. Given the kind of the breathless coverage in much of the Conservative-friendly press so far, I also personally would have expected some numbers a bit higher than that .
The survey figures have 60 for positive with about another 30 for 'too early to say'.
Interestingly, The Times is reporting that even now Blair is so disliked by senior royals because of the way he dealt with the death of Diana, that they don't want to give him a top gong, and this is causing problems for Brown and May who are bedblocked. This is of course an excellent situation, because Brown does not deserve,nor should get one, just because it comes up with the rations.
The man who fecked the economy deserves our opprobrium not our lauding.
Aren’t they both eligible for the Thistle, as Scots?
Labour's going to be in a bit of a tight spot if the Brexiter rebellion is any way significant. The more that Labour votes help carry the day, the more the story would be covered as Labour playing a significant role in Brexit.
It was interesting in this mornings interview on Sky she was directly challenged that she had let it be known she was intending voting against and her embarrassment was noticeable as she said they have lots of internal discussions, but Labour will support the deal
Can you imagine the gnashing of false teeth when the film of Boris' life is made in a decade or two?
Won the Mayoralty twice Won the referendum Won the Tory Leadership Won a huge majority Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
You have to remember, the reason the Boris-hate is so disproportionately strong on here is that many laid him to become leader of the Conservative Party and PM.
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Of that 55% who voted no, a good quarter must be voting Yes in recent polls.
And you are as usual completly forgetting that the deal we have is an atrocious one which will even piss off the fishing communities in the Tory seats as well as many of the professionals in the cushier suburbs. That's two of your favourite Union voter communities. And that's before we see how the export through Dover actually works out. That's the fisherfolk and farming vote at huge risk from your point of view.
Irrespective of your scrabbling, there is the serious point that we have all in Scotland been waiting to see what happens, and even now Brexit is still not happening yet. There are far too many open ends yet.
All recent polls were taken with the presumption of No Deal so are now out of date.
So I think it will be a Deal most Scots can live with including professionals in the suburbs.
As for fishing communities they will welcome the fact they will get more of their own catch, certainly that will be better for them than the contemptible attitude of you and your fellow nationalists in having the audacity to criticise this deal when you would have kept Scotland firmly within the CFP
Your party sold out the Scottish fishermen and has been trying to blame everyone else since. You are utterly shameless.
And that poll is fouir years and more old.
No, the SNP sold out Scottish fishermen by pushing to keep Scotland in the CFP, hence fishing port seats like Banff and Buchan the SNP have held for decades went Tory at the 2017 and 2019 general elections.
That poll remains valid now, show me one poll most Scots oppose a Canada style trade deal?
You are literally clueless - a fine qualification for the Chair of a Tory Association.
People voted Tory in the years that followed the referendum specifically to deliver Brexit.
Now that Brexit is here - and does the opposite for them of how you advertised it - do you really think they will keep voting for you?
I know you and a few other parrots will insist its a great deal for fishing and these fishermen don't know what they are talking about. But in the real world you are toast now that promises and rhetoric splat against the wall of reality.
Again and in fairness have you read the Institute's report on fishing
"Barrie Deas, the chief executive of the National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations (NFFO), said the deal had secured just “a fraction of what the UK has a right to under international law”, arguing that fishing had been “sacrificed for other national objectives”."
Big G - "have you read the Institute's report on fishing"
Fishermen - "you saying this Tory think tank knows more about fishing than fishermen"
Big G - "yes. Will you still be voting Tory at the next election"
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Setting aside your tankism regarding self-determination, you need to see past the Boris Bluster about his great deal vs no deal. The deal is shit for the people it was sold to like fishermen - at least that's what the fishing industry is saying in its initial response.
You and the blue rinse brigade can keep telling them its great, they will tell you in detail why its not at which point I anticipate the line once again being wheeled out that we've had enough of experts.
The feel is as important as the fact. Fishing was billed as a glorious stand for Blighty despite it being worth tuppence ha'penny. It was small but important. The dismissing of Scottish interests is also small but also important. Northern people don't tend to forget being sneered at and told their opinions are irrelevant, especially by southern gentlemen like yourself.
Have you read the institute for government report on the Fishing agreement
It is very interesting and should be reading for all those trying to make political points on it
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
I see you have a new mantra for the day (week, month?). Makes a change from going on and on about Drakeford I guess.
Just as a matter of interest have you read it
No, you’re constant fluffing for it has put me off somewhat.
Why not read it as it is the explanation of the deal
Can you imagine the gnashing of false teeth when the film of Boris' life is made in a decade or two?
Won the Mayoralty twice Won the referendum Won the Tory Leadership Won a huge majority Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
You have to remember, the reason the Boris-hate is so disproportionately strong on here is that many laid him to become leader of the Conservative Party and PM.
Muppets.
Lots of people who’ve laid Johnson end up hating him.
There will be many like our own Scott who are bereft at leaving the EU and will fight on in their quest to rejoin while there will be a much smaller number of no dealers who would only be satisfied with full throttle no deal
However, I genuinely believe the country will move on and adapt to the changes and hopefully forge new relationships and ways of trade. It will be very different and there are bound to be ups and downs
Of course the good socialists in our midst like Polly Toynbee will rage at the difficulty she may have in going backwards and forwards to her Tuscan Villa second home, while the populace from the red wall areas will be able to go for their two weeks in the sun in Spain completely unaffected by our leaving
Rushi Sunak says today that the deal can bring people together and in a large part I think he is right
Also Boris has confounded us all again and just when you think he is on the way out he comes up with the goods
You underestimate Boris Johnson at your peril and I do not see him going anywhere soon
Big G, not sure where my grandparents, working class Tories who retired to Spain on their modest savings where the EU allowed them free access to Spanish healthcare, lie on your spectrum of Hampstead hypocrites to cheerful holidaying proletarians. Grateful for your expert guidance, perhaps you can find it in your Ladybird book of boring tabloid clichés?
I do not know the detail on ex pats living abroad permanently but to be fair the point about the vast majority of ordinary folks enjoying their annual holiday in Spain or Portugal exactly as before is valid
And no need for silly comments
Sorry Big G but your comment really grated. A lot of people most of whom are far from the champagne socialists of your imagination have had their lives and hopes for their own future turned upside down by Brexit.
I do understand the pain of many but in the end we must move on
Like anti EU people did after 1975 you mean? The UK's relationship with the EU isn't going to go away as a topic of political debate. I would suggest you make peace with that fact if you want to argue about politics with strangers on the Internet!
At my age I am perfectly at peace and it is highly unlikely I will witness the UK rejoining the EU in my lifetime
Quite possibly not in my lifetime either (and I was born in 1975). And I wouldn't be advocating we rejoin soon anyway. But it's not going to go away as a topic of debate. We will be talking about UK-EU relations a lot more than we did before 2016, that is for sure.
It will fade over time but it is very raw to many at present
It really won't. It will ebb and flow but the issues haven't gone away and over time a greater proportion of those still alive will be saying "I didn't vote for this" every time they bump up against some inconvenience or cost in their life due to Brexit. The idea that as a country we will be any more comfortable outside the EU than in it is for the birds.
Can you imagine the gnashing of false teeth when the film of Boris' life is made in a decade or two?
Won the Mayoralty twice Won the referendum Won the Tory Leadership Won a huge majority Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
Spot on. The more he's underestimated, the more he wins; the more he wins, the more he's underestimated.
You'd think his opponents might have learned something after being comprehensively defeated on multiple occasions, but they haven't.
By 31 December 2021 PB remainers will still be banging on about Brexit
Well you don’t seem to be able to leave it alone this morning.
And given the whole 4 year review thing, the debate ain't going anywhere for long. Is it a one-off, or will there be a review pencilled in for every 4 years? If the second, heaven help us all...
Brexit is a process where we will drift off gradually from the EU
Where will this process of drifting apart leave Northern Ireland?
What does the border look like, between an independent Scotland and England, if the former wishes to join the EU?
This question will play a big part in a second referendum, in a way that it didn’t in the first one.
A solution has already been found in Northern Ireland. Ulster manages to retain both EEA/CU and CTA membership. Scotland will be able to do the same.
Except that it won’t and it can’t. The GB/NI border “in the Irish Sea” can’t be replicated for Scotland. Scotland will either need to get an opt-out for CU membership, or see a physical border erected between Scotland and England. CTA is for people, not for goods. A Scotland remaining in the CTA will still need to have goods inspected at the border.
Maybe this time the politicians will take the voters with them, but theyre not exactly renowned for their plain dealing.
BoZo is currently the best example that telling lies wins votes
Well he comes from the same stable as Cameron and Osborne so what do you expect ?
Same stable but I talked to the trainer and he says on this front - lying - Johnson is the best he's ever had by a distance. Couldn't believe his luck when he put him through his paces on the morning he arrived.
Disagree.
Boris comes across as an insecure liar who wants to cover up his lack of knowledge or to tell people what he thinks they want to hear.
Whereas Cameron, and likewise Blair and Clegg, were smooth sociopathic liars who had no problem lying when it suited their purposes.
We're concentrating on form in the book not style in running. The latter is too subjective. Some people prefer a Cameron lie to a Clegg or a Blair or a Johnson one in the same way that people swoon about the Federer backhand even when he loses the point. No, forget all of that nonsense. On the hard stats - actual whoppers in the bag - Johnson has it by a country mile. He is Billy Liar and Walter Mitty and Pinocchio rolled into one.
Perhaps the key thing is to be a 'loveable liar'.
To give the impression that your heart is the right place and you are trying your best.
Rather than look like an arrogant type who thinks its good to lie because other people are 'beneath him'.
Yep. The "Boris" brand has exactly this at its core. It is, in fact, a great fat lie in and of itself, but it is undeniably the most powerful such creation we have seen in modern British politics. His appeal, unlike other electoral wizards such as Thatcher and Blair, rests purely on his persona. This makes him both fragile and robust at the same time. For now there is more of the latter than the former and I don't see this changing for some time. He will be PM until at least 2023 and possibly for much longer. He will be kicked out at the point when his shtick is ceasing to work on the public. By the party, if they spot this first and act, or by the voters if they don't.
A year ago I predicted that Nut Nuts would leave Downing Street this year, with Bozo to follow in 2021.
Still in play?
My prediction for 2021 is that the Tories will lose their mayoralties in the West Midlands and Teesside. Labour clean sweep for city region mayors.
There is literally no chance at all that Ben Houchen doesn't win a second term in Teesside: 1. He's a brilliant communicator. Embarrassingly he gets paid less than his team due to the poverty pay set up by Osborne but his team are fabulous at messaging and worth the money. 2. He has actually delivered against key campaign promises. Hard to argue that he is ineffective. 3. His Labour opponent is Jessie-Joe Jacobs who is brilliant about making sure that Jessie-Joe Jacobs is the only name you need to remember when thinking about Jessie-Joe Jacobs. Nobody in the party has much idea what she stands for other than the promotion of Jessie-Joe Jacobs and many of the more casual activists have already refused to work with her
Can you imagine the gnashing of false teeth when the film of Boris' life is made in a decade or two?
Won the Mayoralty twice Won the referendum Won the Tory Leadership Won a huge majority Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
Did anything come of Farage’s proposed Hollywood extravaganza? I know he’s no longer one of your pinups but perhaps you’ve kept up with his afterlife?
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Setting aside your tankism regarding self-determination, you need to see past the Boris Bluster about his great deal vs no deal. The deal is shit for the people it was sold to like fishermen - at least that's what the fishing industry is saying in its initial response.
You and the blue rinse brigade can keep telling them its great, they will tell you in detail why its not at which point I anticipate the line once again being wheeled out that we've had enough of experts.
The feel is as important as the fact. Fishing was billed as a glorious stand for Blighty despite it being worth tuppence ha'penny. It was small but important. The dismissing of Scottish interests is also small but also important. Northern people don't tend to forget being sneered at and told their opinions are irrelevant, especially by southern gentlemen like yourself.
Have you read the institute for government report on the Fishing agreement
It is very interesting and should be reading for all those trying to make political points on it
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
I see you have a new mantra for the day (week, month?). Makes a change from going on and on about Drakeford I guess.
Just as a matter of interest have you read it
No, you’re constant fluffing for it has put me off somewhat.
Why not read it as it is the explanation of the deal
Interestingly, The Times is reporting that even now Blair is so disliked by senior royals because of the way he dealt with the death of Diana, that they don't want to give him a top gong, and this is causing problems for Brown and May who are bedblocked. This is of course an excellent situation, because Brown does not deserve,nor should get one, just because it comes up with the rations.
The man who fecked the economy deserves our opprobrium not our lauding.
Blair wouldn’t accept a peerage until he retires, there’s no way he will want to declare all his income, with the declaration in itself acting as a barrier to income from many other states.
Maybe this time the politicians will take the voters with them, but theyre not exactly renowned for their plain dealing.
BoZo is currently the best example that telling lies wins votes
Well he comes from the same stable as Cameron and Osborne so what do you expect ?
Same stable but I talked to the trainer and he says on this front - lying - Johnson is the best he's ever had by a distance. Couldn't believe his luck when he put him through his paces on the morning he arrived.
Disagree.
Boris comes across as an insecure liar who wants to cover up his lack of knowledge or to tell people what he thinks they want to hear.
Whereas Cameron, and likewise Blair and Clegg, were smooth sociopathic liars who had no problem lying when it suited their purposes.
We're concentrating on form in the book not style in running. The latter is too subjective. Some people prefer a Cameron lie to a Clegg or a Blair or a Johnson one in the same way that people swoon about the Federer backhand even when he loses the point. No, forget all of that nonsense. On the hard stats - actual whoppers in the bag - Johnson has it by a country mile. He is Billy Liar and Walter Mitty and Pinocchio rolled into one.
Perhaps the key thing is to be a 'loveable liar'.
To give the impression that your heart is the right place and you are trying your best.
Rather than look like an arrogant type who thinks its good to lie because other people are 'beneath him'.
Yep. The "Boris" brand has exactly this at its core. It is, in fact, a great fat lie in and of itself, but it is undeniably the most powerful such creation we have seen in modern British politics. His appeal, unlike other electoral wizards such as Thatcher and Blair, rests purely on his persona. This makes him both fragile and robust at the same time. For now there is more of the latter than the former and I don't see this changing for some time. He will be PM until at least 2023 and possibly for much longer. He will be kicked out at the point when his shtick is ceasing to work on the public. By the party, if they spot this first and act, or by the voters if they don't.
It will be his party who kick him out, or he will jump before he is pushed. Johnson is one of those people where the better you know him, the less you like him. As soon as they sense he's not an electoral asset he will be gone. I don't think he will ever run in and lose an election.
Can you imagine the gnashing of false teeth when the film of Boris' life is made in a decade or two?
Won the Mayoralty twice Won the referendum Won the Tory Leadership Won a huge majority Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
It is a point to which they have no answer whatsoever other than driving them to despair
Lol, there is a simple answer. One of my favourite films is the Godfather, Michael Corleone is a fascinating character, as is Johnson (or Trump), but I would not vote for him! Being a good film character is not part of my criteria for judging a politicians merit or success.
Funny to see Tories whipping themselves into hysteria today. Clearly some of this was expected as they negotiated a deal against the weight of their own spin, but talk of Boris the movie takes it to a new level. More than a slight whiff of hubris.
You pretend that all Brexiters are xenophobes and racists
That of course is not what I said.
I said Brexit is a Xenophobic exercise.
That remains true however much people are embarrassed by their support for it.
Happy to rewrite it for you.
You don't understand, do you? It's just a straw man. You Brexit was "a xenophobic exercise" so that you can just disengage from any other arguments there might be for leaving. In fact, being told I was a xenophobe and a racist contributed to me voting "out", on a screw you basis.
None of the people I know who voted for "out" can be described as xenophobic or racist.
"Xenophobic? You talking to me?"
"Fraid so."
"Right well screw you then. I'm gonna vote Xenophobe!"
Johnson would not recognise truth, whether about his private or political life, if confronted by it in an identity parade. In a commonplace book the other day, I came across an observation made in 1750 by a contemporary savant, Bishop Berkeley: “It is impossible that a man who is false to his friends and neighbours should be true to the public.” Almost the only people who think Johnson a nice guy are those who do not know him.
Nothing has happened since Hastings wrote those words to cast any doubt on them.
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
That fishermen are unhappy with the deal? This is a bland statement from the Scottish Fishermen's Federation but it doesn't seem to be happy ?
To be honest it is a measured statement and acknowledges the increase in catch of 25% over 5 years
And of course it confirms the UK will no longer be a member of the Common Fisheries Policy and will be an independent coastal state managing the resources in its waters
It's so odd, because one thing that the Tories used to really understand, and where they had a good case to make, was how this kind of annoying paperwork - "red tape" - has a deadening effect on economic activity. And yet they are presiding over the biggest explosion in costly paperwork in decades, all in the name of "free trade". It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.
It becomes painfully obvious that Brexit was never about free trade, but Xenophobia.
Adding Red tape for immigrants was always the point.
For skilled immigrants, like my wife, the red tape just got a whole load easier.
Treating everyone the same, on their own merits, no matter where in the world they come from, is the exact opposite of xenophobia.
That's far, far from what many Brexit voters want, however. Any significant uptick in non-EU migration after Brexit will cause a significant backlash for the Tories among many core Brexit voters, who were expecting the opposite.
I believe non-EU immigration has already risen. I'm not sure that is correct anyway - the issue has always been more about control rather than actual figures. I agree many Brexit voters want to see immigration fall - not sure that is likely to encourage them to vote for most of the other options available. The 2018 result certainly didn't. Either way calling people names has not been the most effective tactic of remainers in recent years. Not quite clear why they don't get this.
You think that since the issue was about control, not actual numbers, people will be relaxed about the numbers going in the opposite direction to the one they thought they were voting for?
I was chatting to some salt of the earth Cockney racists the other day, who were complaining that immigrants these days weren't as good as immigrants in the olden days, so maybe there are Brexit voters who will be happy with a shift back to Commonwealth immigration rather than European.
‘Them Huguenots were a great bunch of lads.’
One thing on immigration issue is that because of the various levels of bullshit on all sides, people don't say what they actually mean. Or talk about what actually happened.
Mass immigration was sold on the basis that it would (a) save current-contribution-benefit systems from the demographic time bomb and (b) we need the skills. There was also (c) holding wages down.
Inj the 90s, with the conversion of the Polys to universities and overall massive expansion of higher education, the new future was supposed to be that we all worked in nice white collar jobs.
What happened, in fact, was that the proportion of office jobs expanded. The high end ones were filled with Russell Group graduates* - in conjunction with high end graduates from overseas, to make up the shortage.
The non-Russell group graduates got the jobs that would formerly have gone to non-graduates.
So for the high fliers in the nice office jobs, it seemed great - rising wages, good condition *and* they get to congratulate themselves on how diverse their offices are. Certain ethnic groups are missing, but a nice group photo for lifestyle section of a magazine.
For those with the degrees from the "lower" universities - debt, wages not keeping up with massive house price inflation, and limited prospects.
For those in the non-graduate world - trade after trade becomes minimum wage (or below). This is because of the productivity curve issue - productivity is a function of environment. Social, legal, material, political &.... environmental. Wages rose overseas - so to get a big win in profits, it is easier to get the cheap labour to come to the UK (rather than overseas), and replace them when they start demanding better conditions.
*So there was an expansion of opportunity at the top - Oxbridge jobs now go to Russell Group. And their foreign equivalents.
It's so odd, because one thing that the Tories used to really understand, and where they had a good case to make, was how this kind of annoying paperwork - "red tape" - has a deadening effect on economic activity. And yet they are presiding over the biggest explosion in costly paperwork in decades, all in the name of "free trade". It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.
It becomes painfully obvious that Brexit was never about free trade, but Xenophobia.
Adding Red tape for immigrants was always the point.
For skilled immigrants, like my wife, the red tape just got a whole load easier.
Treating everyone the same, on their own merits, no matter where in the world they come from, is the exact opposite of xenophobia.
What rubbish. Irish citizens living in the U.K. are now in a far better position than British citizens. So are other EU citizens but the Irish trump even them because they have the automatic right to live in Britain.
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
That fishermen are unhappy with the deal? This is a bland statement from the Scottish Fishermen's Federation but it doesn't seem to be happy ?
Johnson would not recognise truth, whether about his private or political life, if confronted by it in an identity parade. In a commonplace book the other day, I came across an observation made in 1750 by a contemporary savant, Bishop Berkeley: “It is impossible that a man who is false to his friends and neighbours should be true to the public.” Almost the only people who think Johnson a nice guy are those who do not know him.
Nothing has happened since Hastings wrote those words to cast any doubt on them.
Oh, not quite right - Hastings' gall bladder has had to work overtime, since Boris become Hastings' Prime Minister.
Can you imagine the gnashing of false teeth when the film of Boris' life is made in a decade or two?
Won the Mayoralty twice Won the referendum Won the Tory Leadership Won a huge majority Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
I don't hate HIM. I hate that so many of my fellow citizens are fooled by him or (worse) not fooled by him but still vote for him. As your list emphasizes.
And I feel this despite making very good money backing that GE19 landslide. So, you know, it's pure altruistic wisdom on my part.
The German Federal elections next September are certainly the main international elections next year and will be the first since 2002 in which Merkel will not be the CDU/CSU Chancellor candidate. In my view the CDU membership will pick Friedrich Merz to be their candidate who is more rightwing and conservative than Merkel is as well as being a multimillionaire corporate lawyer and former CDU/CSU Bundestag leader from 2000 to 2002.
In terms of the election itself the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be the largest party in the Bundestag but I cannot see the Greens who are likely to overtake the SPD for second as Robert states supporting Merz for Chancellor and nor can I see a CDU led by Merz supporting the Greens leader, Annalena Baerbock for Chancellor either.
So that leaves Baerbock to become Chancellor if the Greens, SPD and Linke combined seat total is more than that for the CDU/CSU and FDP combined or Merz to become Chancellor if the CDU/CSU and FDP combined total is more than the Greens, SPD and Linke combined. Assuming too of course Merz will follow Merkel's lead and still refuse to do any deal with the AfD
Yes, why not keep on speculating about a subject on which you clearly know very little.
Well what makes you the oracle of German politics then if you want to make such a pompous, patronising comment?
Every time you comment on Germany you talk about the possibility of the CDU and the Afd doing a deal.
It's as if a German keeps commenting on British politics and every time says "if the LibDems fail to get an absolute majority at the next election...."
Where? Where did I mention that, nowhere.
However if say Merz is CDU chancellor candidate I think it is unlikely the Greens will do a deal with him and vice versa and if the only viable alternatives are a Green and SPD and Linke deal or a CDU and FDP and AfD deal who knows what would happen.
You're unbelievable, literally in the post I replied to you said
"Assuming too of course Merz will follow Merkel's lead and still refuse to do any deal with the Afd"
And now again
"or a CDU and FDP and AfD deal"
It's not going to happen. I'll indulge you: Say Merz becomes CDU chair (possible though far from certain) And say the CDU/CSU are the largest group after the next election (probable) And say the only 2 party coalition that can mathematically command a majority is with the Greens(which seems to be what you are suggesting) or Union plus AfD (which looks unlikely) And say the CDU first choice chancellor candidate is Merz And say the price for the Greens going into coalition is Merz not being chancellor Then we know what won't happen: the CDU won't go into coalition with the AfD. Either there will be a Union Green coalition with someone else as chancellor, or the CDU will go into coalition with FDP SPD, or there will be a CDU minority government, or there will be fresh elections (in that order of likelihood).
You suggest the possibility of a Green SPD Linke coalition, but as I think you will realise on reflection, if Union plus AfD (plus FDP) is a majority then Green plus SPD plus Linke isn't.
We seem to be stuck at the stage where remainers are furiously agreeing with each other that the deal actually means we'll be back in the EU in a few years.
Think I'm going to take a break and be back when everyone finally accepts brexit is done, the dea is done and there's no going back. Hopefully that will be the case by the new year.
You pretend that all Brexiters are xenophobes and racists
That of course is not what I said.
I said Brexit is a Xenophobic exercise.
That remains true however much people are embarrassed by their support for it.
Happy to rewrite it for you.
You don't understand, do you? It's just a straw man. You Brexit was "a xenophobic exercise" so that you can just disengage from any other arguments there might be for leaving. In fact, being told I was a xenophobe and a racist contributed to me voting "out", on a screw you basis.
None of the people I know who voted for "out" can be described as xenophobic or racist.
"Xenophobic? You talking to me?"
"Fraid so."
"Right well screw you then. I'm gonna vote Xenophobe!"
Well, no, because I knew all along Brexit isn' xenophobic.
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
That fishermen are unhappy with the deal? This is a bland statement from the Scottish Fishermen's Federation but it doesn't seem to be happy ?
I'm not surprised that the industry isn't happy it didn't get everything it wanted. But that was never going to happen, was it?
If you'd told UK fishing 5 years ago they'd get this deal within five years, they'd have bitten your arm off with more alactrity than a Great White Shark......
Maybe this time the politicians will take the voters with them, but theyre not exactly renowned for their plain dealing.
BoZo is currently the best example that telling lies wins votes
Well he comes from the same stable as Cameron and Osborne so what do you expect ?
Same stable but I talked to the trainer and he says on this front - lying - Johnson is the best he's ever had by a distance. Couldn't believe his luck when he put him through his paces on the morning he arrived.
Disagree.
Boris comes across as an insecure liar who wants to cover up his lack of knowledge or to tell people what he thinks they want to hear.
Whereas Cameron, and likewise Blair and Clegg, were smooth sociopathic liars who had no problem lying when it suited their purposes.
We're concentrating on form in the book not style in running. The latter is too subjective. Some people prefer a Cameron lie to a Clegg or a Blair or a Johnson one in the same way that people swoon about the Federer backhand even when he loses the point. No, forget all of that nonsense. On the hard stats - actual whoppers in the bag - Johnson has it by a country mile. He is Billy Liar and Walter Mitty and Pinocchio rolled into one.
Perhaps the key thing is to be a 'loveable liar'.
To give the impression that your heart is the right place and you are trying your best.
Rather than look like an arrogant type who thinks its good to lie because other people are 'beneath him'.
Yep. The "Boris" brand has exactly this at its core. It is, in fact, a great fat lie in and of itself, but it is undeniably the most powerful such creation we have seen in modern British politics. His appeal, unlike other electoral wizards such as Thatcher and Blair, rests purely on his persona. This makes him both fragile and robust at the same time. For now there is more of the latter than the former and I don't see this changing for some time. He will be PM until at least 2023 and possibly for much longer. He will be kicked out at the point when his shtick is ceasing to work on the public. By the party, if they spot this first and act, or by the voters if they don't.
It will be his party who kick him out, or he will jump before he is pushed. Johnson is one of those people where the better you know him, the less you like him. As soon as they sense he's not an electoral asset he will be gone. I don't think he will ever run in and lose an election.
I think it entirely possible he will go voluntarily - maybe even this year. If so that is not necessarily good news for Labour.
It's so odd, because one thing that the Tories used to really understand, and where they had a good case to make, was how this kind of annoying paperwork - "red tape" - has a deadening effect on economic activity. And yet they are presiding over the biggest explosion in costly paperwork in decades, all in the name of "free trade". It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.
It becomes painfully obvious that Brexit was never about free trade, but Xenophobia.
Adding Red tape for immigrants was always the point.
For skilled immigrants, like my wife, the red tape just got a whole load easier.
Treating everyone the same, on their own merits, no matter where in the world they come from, is the exact opposite of xenophobia.
What rubbish. Irish citizens living in the U.K. are now in a far better position than British citizens. So are other EU citizens but the Irish trump even them because they have the automatic right to live in Britain.
Isn't that just saying that people with dual citizenship in general have more rights with a single citizenship? Maybe unfair, but the way of the world.
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
That fishermen are unhappy with the deal? This is a bland statement from the Scottish Fishermen's Federation but it doesn't seem to be happy ?
I'm not surprised that the industry isn't happy it didn't get everything it wanted. But that was never going to happen, was it?
I agree with that. Expectations were unrealistic. I was expecting the EU to give up about a third of its quota - a meaningful amount for the UK while keeping things mostly the same for the EU. It worked out like that.
It's so odd, because one thing that the Tories used to really understand, and where they had a good case to make, was how this kind of annoying paperwork - "red tape" - has a deadening effect on economic activity. And yet they are presiding over the biggest explosion in costly paperwork in decades, all in the name of "free trade". It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.
It becomes painfully obvious that Brexit was never about free trade, but Xenophobia.
Adding Red tape for immigrants was always the point.
For skilled immigrants, like my wife, the red tape just got a whole load easier.
Treating everyone the same, on their own merits, no matter where in the world they come from, is the exact opposite of xenophobia.
What rubbish. Irish citizens living in the U.K. are now in a far better position than British citizens. So are other EU citizens but the Irish trump even them because they have the automatic right to live in Britain.
Irish citizens are an exception for well-known historic reasons. It’s certainly not rubbish that my wife and I can now choose to live in my country, having being forced to live abroad for the five years of our marriage to date.
It's so odd, because one thing that the Tories used to really understand, and where they had a good case to make, was how this kind of annoying paperwork - "red tape" - has a deadening effect on economic activity. And yet they are presiding over the biggest explosion in costly paperwork in decades, all in the name of "free trade". It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.
It becomes painfully obvious that Brexit was never about free trade, but Xenophobia.
Adding Red tape for immigrants was always the point.
For skilled immigrants, like my wife, the red tape just got a whole load easier.
Treating everyone the same, on their own merits, no matter where in the world they come from, is the exact opposite of xenophobia.
What rubbish. Irish citizens living in the U.K. are now in a far better position than British citizens. So are other EU citizens but the Irish trump even them because they have the automatic right to live in Britain.
So, in other words, the Irish do very well and all the rest are treated the same. I presume you are happy for them in view of the very special situation the history of that region has which necessitated it. Unless you feel the British are being too good to the Irish? Interesting.
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
That fishermen are unhappy with the deal? This is a bland statement from the Scottish Fishermen's Federation but it doesn't seem to be happy ?
I'm not surprised that the industry isn't happy it didn't get everything it wanted. But that was never going to happen, was it?
I agree with that. Expectations were unrealistic. I was expecting the EU to give up about a third of its quota - a meaningful amount for the UK while keeping things mostly the same for the EU. It worked out like that.
For 5.5 years, not the 14 they had originally asked for. In the end both sides compromised, and after the transition period the negotiations are like for other costal states.
By 31 December 2021 PB remainers will still be banging on about Brexit
Well you don’t seem to be able to leave it alone this morning.
And given the whole 4 year review thing, the debate ain't going anywhere for long. Is it a one-off, or will there be a review pencilled in for every 4 years? If the second, heaven help us all...
Brexit is a process where we will drift off gradually from the EU
Where will this process of drifting apart leave Northern Ireland?
What does the border look like, between an independent Scotland and England, if the former wishes to join the EU?
Same asd it has always been for the last 4 centuries or so, one village football ground aside. The different legal systems clearly identify the land in question, for one thing.
Apart from the barbed wire, and the customs posts?
Why any different to the border at Dover. Trade in goods and agriculture via trusted trader schemes (or so we get assured by Leavers).
The only way an Indyscotland border becomes a problem is if the England/EU becomes one too.
The Agreement makes Scottish Independence more rather than less viable.
Can you imagine the gnashing of false teeth when the film of Boris' life is made in a decade or two?
Won the Mayoralty twice Won the referendum Won the Tory Leadership Won a huge majority Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
You have to remember, the reason the Boris-hate is so disproportionately strong on here is that many laid him to become leader of the Conservative Party and PM.
Can you imagine the gnashing of false teeth when the film of Boris' life is made in a decade or two?
Won the Mayoralty twice Won the referendum Won the Tory Leadership Won a huge majority Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
Did anything come of Farage’s proposed Hollywood extravaganza? I know he’s no longer one of your pinups but perhaps you’ve kept up with his afterlife?
I didn't know he was planning a Hollywood extravaganza! Haha he is still probably my favourite politician, so allow yourself to call him one of my pin ups at your pleasure!
Can you imagine the gnashing of false teeth when the film of Boris' life is made in a decade or two?
Won the Mayoralty twice Won the referendum Won the Tory Leadership Won a huge majority Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
You have to remember, the reason the Boris-hate is so disproportionately strong on here is that many laid him to become leader of the Conservative Party and PM.
Muppets.
Falling ill is an achievement?
No, but rising from the dead on Easter Sunday is traditionally considered so by a couple of billion people.
By 31 December 2021 PB remainers will still be banging on about Brexit
Well you don’t seem to be able to leave it alone this morning.
And given the whole 4 year review thing, the debate ain't going anywhere for long. Is it a one-off, or will there be a review pencilled in for every 4 years? If the second, heaven help us all...
Brexit is a process where we will drift off gradually from the EU
Where will this process of drifting apart leave Northern Ireland?
What does the border look like, between an independent Scotland and England, if the former wishes to join the EU?
Same asd it has always been for the last 4 centuries or so, one village football ground aside. The different legal systems clearly identify the land in question, for one thing.
Apart from the barbed wire, and the customs posts?
Why any different to the border at Dover. Trade in goods and agriculture via trusted trader schemes (or so we get assured by Leavers).
The only way an Indyscotland border becomes a problem is if the England/EU becomes one too.
The Agreement makes Scottish Independence more rather than less viable.
The border at Dover has barbed wire and customs posts. An indy Scotland joining the CU would create the same at Berwick and Carlisle.
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
That fishermen are unhappy with the deal? This is a bland statement from the Scottish Fishermen's Federation but it doesn't seem to be happy ?
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Of that 55% who voted no, a good quarter must be voting Yes in recent polls.
And you are as usual completly forgetting that the deal we have is an atrocious one which will even piss off the fishing communities in the Tory seats as well as many of the professionals in the cushier suburbs. That's two of your favourite Union voter communities. And that's before we see how the export through Dover actually works out. That's the fisherfolk and farming vote at huge risk from your point of view.
Irrespective of your scrabbling, there is the serious point that we have all in Scotland been waiting to see what happens, and even now Brexit is still not happening yet. There are far too many open ends yet.
All recent polls were taken with the presumption of No Deal so are now out of date.
So I think it will be a Deal most Scots can live with including professionals in the suburbs.
As for fishing communities they will welcome the fact they will get more of their own catch, certainly that will be better for them than the contemptible attitude of you and your fellow nationalists in having the audacity to criticise this deal when you would have kept Scotland firmly within the CFP
Your party sold out the Scottish fishermen and has been trying to blame everyone else since. You are utterly shameless.
And that poll is fouir years and more old.
With respect the SNP will hand them back to Brussels and this deal will improve catches in an incremental way without creating violence amongst different fishing fleets
And maybe a more considered view would be helped by reading this
You do realise it is SNP policy also to renegotiate the CFP? You shouldn't believe what HYUFD says about it.
Good luck with that v the EU fishermen and after surrendering UK coastal waters to Brussels
BigG - yoiu do neede to read up about SNP policy. And history. They have never surrendered UK coastal waters to Brussels - I've pointed out to HYUFD that that has never been possible.
You pretend that all Brexiters are xenophobes and racists
That of course is not what I said.
I said Brexit is a Xenophobic exercise.
That remains true however much people are embarrassed by their support for it.
Happy to rewrite it for you.
You don't understand, do you? It's just a straw man. You Brexit was "a xenophobic exercise" so that you can just disengage from any other arguments there might be for leaving. In fact, being told I was a xenophobe and a racist contributed to me voting "out", on a screw you basis.
None of the people I know who voted for "out" can be described as xenophobic or racist.
"Xenophobic? You talking to me?"
"Fraid so."
"Right well screw you then. I'm gonna vote Xenophobe!"
Well, no, because I knew all along Brexit isn' xenophobic.
For some it was. The challenge is putting a quantum on it. A good proxy imo is the % of Leavers who were also strong supporters of President Trump. A recent survey put this at around 28% (cf 5% of Remainers). But whatever, I'd summarize on this as below -
(i) Brexit is pure xenophobia. (ii) A significant driver of the Leave vote was xenophobia.
(i) is offensive bollox and (ii) is clearly the truth.
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Of that 55% who voted no, a good quarter must be voting Yes in recent polls.
And you are as usual completly forgetting that the deal we have is an atrocious one which will even piss off the fishing communities in the Tory seats as well as many of the professionals in the cushier suburbs. That's two of your favourite Union voter communities. And that's before we see how the export through Dover actually works out. That's the fisherfolk and farming vote at huge risk from your point of view.
Irrespective of your scrabbling, there is the serious point that we have all in Scotland been waiting to see what happens, and even now Brexit is still not happening yet. There are far too many open ends yet.
All recent polls were taken with the presumption of No Deal so are now out of date.
So I think it will be a Deal most Scots can live with including professionals in the suburbs.
As for fishing communities they will welcome the fact they will get more of their own catch, certainly that will be better for them than the contemptible attitude of you and your fellow nationalists in having the audacity to criticise this deal when you would have kept Scotland firmly within the CFP
Your party sold out the Scottish fishermen and has been trying to blame everyone else since. You are utterly shameless.
And that poll is fouir years and more old.
With respect the SNP will hand them back to Brussels and this deal will improve catches in an incremental way without creating violence amongst different fishing fleets
And maybe a more considered view would be helped by reading this
You do realise it is SNP policy also to renegotiate the CFP? You shouldn't believe what HYUFD says about it.
Good luck with that v the EU fishermen and after surrendering UK coastal waters to Brussels
BigG - yoiu do neede to read up about SNP policy. And history. They have never surrendered UK coastal waters to Brussels - I've pointed out to HYUFD that that has never been possible.
I assume the proposal will be to rejoin the EU after inedependence?
It's so odd, because one thing that the Tories used to really understand, and where they had a good case to make, was how this kind of annoying paperwork - "red tape" - has a deadening effect on economic activity. And yet they are presiding over the biggest explosion in costly paperwork in decades, all in the name of "free trade". It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.
It becomes painfully obvious that Brexit was never about free trade, but Xenophobia.
Adding Red tape for immigrants was always the point.
For skilled immigrants, like my wife, the red tape just got a whole load easier.
Treating everyone the same, on their own merits, no matter where in the world they come from, is the exact opposite of xenophobia.
What rubbish. Irish citizens living in the U.K. are now in a far better position than British citizens. So are other EU citizens but the Irish trump even them because they have the automatic right to live in Britain.
So, in other words, the Irish do very well and all the rest are treated the same. I presume you are happy for them in view of the very special situation the history of that region has which necessitated it. Unless you feel the British are being too good to the Irish? Interesting.
As an Irish citizen I am delighted. I am even more delighted that my children also have Irish citizenship and therefore have options not as easily available to others.
But I was correcting the statement that everyone was being treated the same. They're not.
And I wonder whether it was intended by the Brexiteers - whose attitude towards Ireland during the last 4 years was not that of people realising that the the Irish might have some special claims on the British but of angry incomprehension at the idea that they had to take the Irish seriously - or whether it was an accidental but nonetheless happy outcome.
At any event, I have just recently completed the first stage of a piece of work, which will likely involve me spending time working in Ireland at a later stage. One of my selling points was my EU citizenship precisely because it avoids any issues re whether I could do any necessary follow up work. At the margin when choosing between candidate A and candidate B, this stuff can matter.
I am also bidding for another piece of work next year - again in an EU country - and will be making the same point again.
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Of that 55% who voted no, a good quarter must be voting Yes in recent polls.
And you are as usual completly forgetting that the deal we have is an atrocious one which will even piss off the fishing communities in the Tory seats as well as many of the professionals in the cushier suburbs. That's two of your favourite Union voter communities. And that's before we see how the export through Dover actually works out. That's the fisherfolk and farming vote at huge risk from your point of view.
Irrespective of your scrabbling, there is the serious point that we have all in Scotland been waiting to see what happens, and even now Brexit is still not happening yet. There are far too many open ends yet.
All recent polls were taken with the presumption of No Deal so are now out of date.
So I think it will be a Deal most Scots can live with including professionals in the suburbs.
As for fishing communities they will welcome the fact they will get more of their own catch, certainly that will be better for them than the contemptible attitude of you and your fellow nationalists in having the audacity to criticise this deal when you would have kept Scotland firmly within the CFP
Your party sold out the Scottish fishermen and has been trying to blame everyone else since. You are utterly shameless.
And that poll is fouir years and more old.
No, the SNP sold out Scottish fishermen by keeping Scotland in the CFP, hence fishing seats like Banff and Buchan the SNP have held for decades went Tory at the 2017 and 2019 general elections.
That poll remains valid now, show me one poll most Scots oppose a Canada style trade deal?
You are showing amazing ignorance, or mendacity, I won't speculate which, in your astonishing belief that the Scottish Governments were ever given power to renegotiate the various agreements with the EU.
See - you are trying to blame everyone else for your party's selling out the fishermen. As they have done yet again, on which the fishermen are very clear.
As for the poll, given how the background has changed and how public sentiment has changed over the last 4 years, it's about as useful as a Which article on the relative merits of an Austin Maxi and a Ford Cortina would be for the average buyer today. ,
You can insult me as much as your little Nat head wants, it does not change the fact the SNP were and are committed to keeping Scotland in the CFP and selling out Scottish fishermen.
As for that poll, I see you still have not found any evidence to contradict it, nor a single poll that shows Scots oppose a Canada style FTA
I didn't insult you - simply drew the clear two inferences from your repeated inaccuracy, to be very polite, on the fact that your party sold out the fishermen, which I pointed out yesterday. In fact, you can't claim ignorance, come to think of it, so ...
And you don't have a poll more recent than 4 years and a bit ago? That to me tells me your argument is utterly worthless.
It's so odd, because one thing that the Tories used to really understand, and where they had a good case to make, was how this kind of annoying paperwork - "red tape" - has a deadening effect on economic activity. And yet they are presiding over the biggest explosion in costly paperwork in decades, all in the name of "free trade". It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.
It becomes painfully obvious that Brexit was never about free trade, but Xenophobia.
Adding Red tape for immigrants was always the point.
For skilled immigrants, like my wife, the red tape just got a whole load easier.
Treating everyone the same, on their own merits, no matter where in the world they come from, is the exact opposite of xenophobia.
What rubbish. Irish citizens living in the U.K. are now in a far better position than British citizens. So are other EU citizens but the Irish trump even them because they have the automatic right to live in Britain.
Irish citizens are an exception for well-known historic reasons. It’s certainly not rubbish that my wife and I can now choose to live in my country, having being forced to live abroad for the five years of our marriage to date.
It's rubbish to attribute that to the EU or Brexit.
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
That fishermen are unhappy with the deal? This is a bland statement from the Scottish Fishermen's Federation but it doesn't seem to be happy ?
A great predictions piece to kick things off. A few people have already made many of my points: 1. Violence in America. They are not going to transition to the Biden Presidency without a whole load of blood. 2. The Brexit Betrayal. Never mind "remoaners" it will be leavers making the loudest noises. They were sold a magic bullet and as we go through the actual treaty and start implementing the thing it will make Osborne's Omnishambles budget look like a flawless piece of economics 3. The Ulster conundrum. On one hand Norniron has just become hot property, a one foot in each camp territory that should be able to do very very well in this decade. The conundrum is how the DUP handle this divergence. Its economically and socially Good for their electorate. But is clearly no longer a part of the main UK which they have always said is Bad for their electorate... 4. The Scottish Play. Combine the effects of points 2 and 3 and the push for independence will be something that even the truculent form of General HYUFD cannot stop. The SNP will win the 2021 election and win big - hell I might vote for them just to kick this off. At which point the fun begins... 5. I fear for party politics in England. The Brexit Betrayal will lead to people looking for other solutions. The Good News for both batshit elements of Labour and Tory Parties is that they will get an audience. The bad news for everyone else is that it will make our increasingly polarised politics increasingly polarised.
4 Had we gone to No Deal then the SNP would likely have won big, now we have a Deal I think most Scots will shrug their shoulders and move on, the 55% who voted No in particular will not take kindly to Sturgeon still pushing for indyref2 and Unionist tactical voting could well deny her a majority. At which point she will face a May 2017 style humiliation and the SNP will collapse into civil war between the Salmond and Sturgeon factions.
Even if the SNP did win a majority Boris would refuse a legal indyref2 and Unionists would boycott any illegal indyref making it irrelevant
Of that 55% who voted no, a good quarter must be voting Yes in recent polls.
And you are as usual completly forgetting that the deal we have is an atrocious one which will even piss off the fishing communities in the Tory seats as well as many of the professionals in the cushier suburbs. That's two of your favourite Union voter communities. And that's before we see how the export through Dover actually works out. That's the fisherfolk and farming vote at huge risk from your point of view.
Irrespective of your scrabbling, there is the serious point that we have all in Scotland been waiting to see what happens, and even now Brexit is still not happening yet. There are far too many open ends yet.
All recent polls were taken with the presumption of No Deal so are now out of date.
So I think it will be a Deal most Scots can live with including professionals in the suburbs.
As for fishing communities they will welcome the fact they will get more of their own catch, certainly that will be better for them than the contemptible attitude of you and your fellow nationalists in having the audacity to criticise this deal when you would have kept Scotland firmly within the CFP
Your party sold out the Scottish fishermen and has been trying to blame everyone else since. You are utterly shameless.
And that poll is fouir years and more old.
With respect the SNP will hand them back to Brussels and this deal will improve catches in an incremental way without creating violence amongst different fishing fleets
And maybe a more considered view would be helped by reading this
You do realise it is SNP policy also to renegotiate the CFP? You shouldn't believe what HYUFD says about it.
Good luck with that v the EU fishermen and after surrendering UK coastal waters to Brussels
BigG - yoiu do neede to read up about SNP policy. And history. They have never surrendered UK coastal waters to Brussels - I've pointed out to HYUFD that that has never been possible.
I assume the proposal will be to rejoin the EU after inedependence?
It generally is, but who knows? I honestly think everything is moving now and will take time to settle into new positions. As others on the board have noticed, the very fact of no No Deal is itself important in resolving the uncertainties. But as I suggested yesterday, it will take time to work through things some more. For instance, EFTA might well be a more practical option now.
It's so odd, because one thing that the Tories used to really understand, and where they had a good case to make, was how this kind of annoying paperwork - "red tape" - has a deadening effect on economic activity. And yet they are presiding over the biggest explosion in costly paperwork in decades, all in the name of "free trade". It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.
It becomes painfully obvious that Brexit was never about free trade, but Xenophobia.
Adding Red tape for immigrants was always the point.
For skilled immigrants, like my wife, the red tape just got a whole load easier.
Treating everyone the same, on their own merits, no matter where in the world they come from, is the exact opposite of xenophobia.
What rubbish. Irish citizens living in the U.K. are now in a far better position than British citizens. So are other EU citizens but the Irish trump even them because they have the automatic right to live in Britain.
Irish citizens are an exception for well-known historic reasons. It’s certainly not rubbish that my wife and I can now choose to live in my country, having being forced to live abroad for the five years of our marriage to date.
It's rubbish to attribute that to the EU or Brexit.
On the contrary, it’s entirely due to Brexit, and the ending of a two-tier system of immigration which treated EU and non-EU passport holders very differently. The new system is merit-based, rather than nationality-based, and my wife overwhelmingly qualifies for the new system when she didn’t under the old one.
I have been a bit confused by some of the interpretations on this thread of the AZN/Oxford vaccine data. Someone kindly linked to the Lancet paper and I have had a look at it. Here is my understanding of the data. Apologies if I'm just repeating what has already been said.
There were 131 symptomatic cases across all arms of the trial and the figure quoted on overall vaccine efficacy of 70.4% relates to these symptomatic cases.
Then there were also 69 asymptomatic cases identified. These were all from COV002, the UK arms of the trial where some had LD/SD and some had SD/SD. Here the LD/SD patients were protected by the vaccine from getting asymptomatic infection, 7 cases in the vaccinated group against 17 in the control group. This represents 58.9% efficacy. But the SD/SD regime was not effective at preventing asymptomatic infection, 22 cases against 23 in the control group. This represents 3.8% efficacy.
Interestingly in the COV002 UK placebo arms of the trial there were 68 symptomatic cases and 40 asymptomatic cases. So quite a high proportion of asymptomatic cases.
Can you imagine the gnashing of false teeth when the film of Boris' life is made in a decade or two?
Won the Mayoralty twice Won the referendum Won the Tory Leadership Won a huge majority Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
That fishermen are unhappy with the deal? This is a bland statement from the Scottish Fishermen's Federation but it doesn't seem to be happy ?
I'm not surprised that the industry isn't happy it didn't get everything it wanted. But that was never going to happen, was it?
I agree with that. Expectations were unrealistic. I was expecting the EU to give up about a third of its quota - a meaningful amount for the UK while keeping things mostly the same for the EU. It worked out like that.
For 5.5 years, not the 14 they had originally asked for. In the end both sides compromised, and after the transition period the negotiations are like for other costal states.
No they aren't. The way the agreement is written the presumption is that EU states will get the same quotas as during the transitional period. If they don't then the EU can impose retaliatory measures such as tariffs. So fishermen might get increased quotas but at the cost of reduced access to the market for their produce.
Furthermore, fishing is linked to the other parts of the deal and is not stand-alone as the government wanted. So divergence elsewhere could lead to retaliation against fishing.
This is not quite the same as negotiations for other coastal states.
It's so odd, because one thing that the Tories used to really understand, and where they had a good case to make, was how this kind of annoying paperwork - "red tape" - has a deadening effect on economic activity. And yet they are presiding over the biggest explosion in costly paperwork in decades, all in the name of "free trade". It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.
It becomes painfully obvious that Brexit was never about free trade, but Xenophobia.
Adding Red tape for immigrants was always the point.
For skilled immigrants, like my wife, the red tape just got a whole load easier.
Treating everyone the same, on their own merits, no matter where in the world they come from, is the exact opposite of xenophobia.
What rubbish. Irish citizens living in the U.K. are now in a far better position than British citizens. So are other EU citizens but the Irish trump even them because they have the automatic right to live in Britain.
Irish citizens are an exception for well-known historic reasons. It’s certainly not rubbish that my wife and I can now choose to live in my country, having being forced to live abroad for the five years of our marriage to date.
It's rubbish to attribute that to the EU or Brexit.
On the contrary, it’s entirely due to Brexit, and the ending of a two-tier system of immigration which treated EU and non-EU passport holders very differently. The new system is merit-based, rather than nationality-based, and my wife overwhelmingly qualifies for the new system when she didn’t under the old one.
So it was previously impossible for non-EU citizens to live in the UK?
It's so odd, because one thing that the Tories used to really understand, and where they had a good case to make, was how this kind of annoying paperwork - "red tape" - has a deadening effect on economic activity. And yet they are presiding over the biggest explosion in costly paperwork in decades, all in the name of "free trade". It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.
It becomes painfully obvious that Brexit was never about free trade, but Xenophobia.
Adding Red tape for immigrants was always the point.
For skilled immigrants, like my wife, the red tape just got a whole load easier.
Treating everyone the same, on their own merits, no matter where in the world they come from, is the exact opposite of xenophobia.
What rubbish. Irish citizens living in the U.K. are now in a far better position than British citizens. So are other EU citizens but the Irish trump even them because they have the automatic right to live in Britain.
Irish citizens are an exception for well-known historic reasons. It’s certainly not rubbish that my wife and I can now choose to live in my country, having being forced to live abroad for the five years of our marriage to date.
It's rubbish to attribute that to the EU or Brexit.
On the contrary, it’s entirely due to Brexit, and the ending of a two-tier system of immigration which treated EU and non-EU passport holders very differently. The new system is merit-based, rather than nationality-based, and my wife overwhelmingly qualifies for the new system when she didn’t under the old one.
So it was previously impossible for non-EU citizens to live in the UK?
In practical terms, as the spouse of a U.K. citizen currently living abroad, yes.
The non-EU system was designed for:
1. Indian brides, arranging marriages with British citizens living in the U.K. 2. Exceptionally-skilled workers, with PhDs or specific company skills.
The idea that a British citizen might meet and marry someone whilst living abroad, then wish to relocate back to the U.K., was a massive hole in the system. The key point was the need to prove my income in order to sponsor my wife, but with income earned outside the U.K. not eligible.
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
That fishermen are unhappy with the deal? This is a bland statement from the Scottish Fishermen's Federation but it doesn't seem to be happy ?
I'm not surprised that the industry isn't happy it didn't get everything it wanted. But that was never going to happen, was it?
I agree with that. Expectations were unrealistic. I was expecting the EU to give up about a third of its quota - a meaningful amount for the UK while keeping things mostly the same for the EU. It worked out like that.
For 5.5 years, not the 14 they had originally asked for. In the end both sides compromised, and after the transition period the negotiations are like for other costal states.
No they aren't. The way the agreement is written the presumption is that EU states will get the same quotas as during the transitional period. If they don't then the EU can impose retaliatory measures such as tariffs. So fishermen might get increased quotas but at the cost of reduced access to the market for their produce.
Furthermore, fishing is linked to the other parts of the deal and is not stand-alone as the government wanted. So divergence elsewhere could lead to retaliation against fishing.
This is not quite the same as negotiations for other coastal states.
From what I've read the tariffs apply if the access is withdrawn during the transition period, not at the end of it.
Labour's going to be in a bit of a tight spot if the Brexiter rebellion is any way significant. The more that Labour votes help carry the day, the more the story would be covered as Labour playing a significant role in Brexit.
"It's a trap!"
And sadly Labour are falling for it!
Not that it mattters, expect Labour to be polling in the mid 30s for quite some time now....
It's so odd, because one thing that the Tories used to really understand, and where they had a good case to make, was how this kind of annoying paperwork - "red tape" - has a deadening effect on economic activity. And yet they are presiding over the biggest explosion in costly paperwork in decades, all in the name of "free trade". It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.
It becomes painfully obvious that Brexit was never about free trade, but Xenophobia.
Adding Red tape for immigrants was always the point.
For skilled immigrants, like my wife, the red tape just got a whole load easier.
Treating everyone the same, on their own merits, no matter where in the world they come from, is the exact opposite of xenophobia.
What rubbish. Irish citizens living in the U.K. are now in a far better position than British citizens. So are other EU citizens but the Irish trump even them because they have the automatic right to live in Britain.
Irish citizens are an exception for well-known historic reasons. It’s certainly not rubbish that my wife and I can now choose to live in my country, having being forced to live abroad for the five years of our marriage to date.
It's rubbish to attribute that to the EU or Brexit.
On the contrary, it’s entirely due to Brexit, and the ending of a two-tier system of immigration which treated EU and non-EU passport holders very differently. The new system is merit-based, rather than nationality-based, and my wife overwhelmingly qualifies for the new system when she didn’t under the old one.
So it was previously impossible for non-EU citizens to live in the UK?
Rubbish. We didn't need to Brexit to change the UK spousal visa system.
It's so odd, because one thing that the Tories used to really understand, and where they had a good case to make, was how this kind of annoying paperwork - "red tape" - has a deadening effect on economic activity. And yet they are presiding over the biggest explosion in costly paperwork in decades, all in the name of "free trade". It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.
It becomes painfully obvious that Brexit was never about free trade, but Xenophobia.
Adding Red tape for immigrants was always the point.
For skilled immigrants, like my wife, the red tape just got a whole load easier.
Treating everyone the same, on their own merits, no matter where in the world they come from, is the exact opposite of xenophobia.
What rubbish. Irish citizens living in the U.K. are now in a far better position than British citizens. So are other EU citizens but the Irish trump even them because they have the automatic right to live in Britain.
Irish citizens are an exception for well-known historic reasons. It’s certainly not rubbish that my wife and I can now choose to live in my country, having being forced to live abroad for the five years of our marriage to date.
It's rubbish to attribute that to the EU or Brexit.
On the contrary, it’s entirely due to Brexit, and the ending of a two-tier system of immigration which treated EU and non-EU passport holders very differently. The new system is merit-based, rather than nationality-based, and my wife overwhelmingly qualifies for the new system when she didn’t under the old one.
As I understand it Britain had the right to treat non-EU citizens as favourably as it wanted long before Brexit. If so your complaint is with various British governments not with the EU.
The EU has been cunning on the fisheries deal, it seems, by maximising species in its quota for which the only market is the European Union. Even if the UK repatriated that quota, it wouldn't be able to sell it, while also losing its most important market for other species.
There is a reason why fishermen are unhappy. It's not a particularly good deal for them, overall.
And you conclude that from the Institute of Government's Fishing release?
That fishermen are unhappy with the deal? This is a bland statement from the Scottish Fishermen's Federation but it doesn't seem to be happy ?
I'm not surprised that the industry isn't happy it didn't get everything it wanted. But that was never going to happen, was it?
I agree with that. Expectations were unrealistic. I was expecting the EU to give up about a third of its quota - a meaningful amount for the UK while keeping things mostly the same for the EU. It worked out like that.
For 5.5 years, not the 14 they had originally asked for. In the end both sides compromised, and after the transition period the negotiations are like for other costal states.
No they aren't. The way the agreement is written the presumption is that EU states will get the same quotas as during the transitional period. If they don't then the EU can impose retaliatory measures such as tariffs. So fishermen might get increased quotas but at the cost of reduced access to the market for their produce.
Furthermore, fishing is linked to the other parts of the deal and is not stand-alone as the government wanted. So divergence elsewhere could lead to retaliation against fishing.
This is not quite the same as negotiations for other coastal states.
From what I've read the tariffs apply if the access is withdrawn during the transition period, not at the end of it.
Afaics 'compensatory measures' can apply both during the transition period and after
Comments
Britain leaves the EU and instead agrees a free trade deal with the EU, like Canada. Britain can export goods to the EU without paying tariffs, but the deal does not include services, so does not allow British industries like financial services to export freely to the EU. Britain has full control over our borders and immigration, does not have to follow any EU regulations and does not have to contribute any money to the EU.
Do you think this outcome would be good or bad for Britain?'
UK voters overall were 50% happy with this outcome and only 25% unhappy.
Scots were 44% happy and only 29% unhappy.
In fact Londoners were more unhappy than Scots with only 41% of London voters happy with a Canada style deal and 32% unhappy.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price- (p6)
Won the Mayoralty twice
Won the referendum
Won the Tory Leadership
Won a huge majority
Fell ill during a worldwide pandemic
Recovered to be PM of first country to get the vaccine
Agrees a deal with the EU
All on the backdrop of his haters saying he wouldn't be able to do any of them (against the odds) and bedding dozens of women. It is paint by numbers Hollywood, and the rush to point out all the bits that are exaggerated/left out will only make it more successful
Oh dear, wrong again!
https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1343166809248301056?s=20
A more accurate way of looking at it would be "UK opts to speed travel, while EU chooses to make it more difficult".
1. He's a brilliant communicator. Embarrassingly he gets paid less than his team due to the poverty pay set up by Osborne but his team are fabulous at messaging and worth the money.
2. He has actually delivered against key campaign promises. Hard to argue that he is ineffective.
3. His Labour opponent is Jessie-Joe Jacobs who is brilliant about making sure that Jessie-Joe Jacobs is the only name you need to remember when thinking about Jessie-Joe Jacobs. Nobody in the party has much idea what she stands for other than the promotion of Jessie-Joe Jacobs and many of the more casual activists have already refused to work with her
Houchen will walk it and frankly deservedly so.
However just as it was disingenuous to claim we could leave the EU without economic costs, so it is equally the case for Scotland leaving the UK. A better argument would be state that the gains in being part of the EU single market outweigh the loss of the UK one. Then just provide the evidence.
All because the Brexiteers lied"
This is of course an excellent situation, because Brown does not deserve,nor should get one, just because it comes up with the rations.
The man who fecked the economy deserves
our opprobrium not our lauding.
The Ireland "deal" was very specific to its circumstances.
Cue jokes about it going to donkeys too...
Again - the Fishermen have attacked the deal based on its impact on them as fishermen. SO you think we just tell them to read the IoG report instead?
This isn't going to play well for a Tory Party who have still had enough of experts.
https://twitter.com/sff_uk/status/1342177855090921477
Another one:
https://twitter.com/NFFO_UK/status/1342775348807626753
A committee has to sit on it.
Muppets.
Big G - "have you read the Institute's report on fishing"
Fishermen - "you saying this Tory think tank knows more about fishing than fishermen"
Big G - "yes. Will you still be voting Tory at the next election"
That'll do it G.
Starting with his many ex-wives.
You'd think his opponents might have learned something after being comprehensively defeated on multiple occasions, but they haven't.
And surely you will all be trumpeting the advantages it will be bringing, won't you?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/27/so-long-we-will-miss-you-we-europeans-see-how-you-have-helped-to-shape-us
"Fraid so."
"Right well screw you then. I'm gonna vote Xenophobe!"
Nothing has happened since Hastings wrote those words to cast any doubt on them.
And of course it confirms the UK will no longer be a member of the Common Fisheries Policy and will be an independent coastal state managing the resources in its waters
Mass immigration was sold on the basis that it would (a) save current-contribution-benefit systems from the demographic time bomb and (b) we need the skills. There was also (c) holding wages down.
Inj the 90s, with the conversion of the Polys to universities and overall massive expansion of higher education, the new future was supposed to be that we all worked in nice white collar jobs.
What happened, in fact, was that the proportion of office jobs expanded. The high end ones were filled with Russell Group graduates* - in conjunction with high end graduates from overseas, to make up the shortage.
The non-Russell group graduates got the jobs that would formerly have gone to non-graduates.
So for the high fliers in the nice office jobs, it seemed great - rising wages, good condition *and* they get to congratulate themselves on how diverse their offices are. Certain ethnic groups are missing, but a nice group photo for lifestyle section of a magazine.
For those with the degrees from the "lower" universities - debt, wages not keeping up with massive house price inflation, and limited prospects.
For those in the non-graduate world - trade after trade becomes minimum wage (or below). This is because of the productivity curve issue - productivity is a function of environment. Social, legal, material, political &.... environmental. Wages rose overseas - so to get a big win in profits, it is easier to get the cheap labour to come to the UK (rather than overseas), and replace them when they start demanding better conditions.
*So there was an expansion of opportunity at the top - Oxbridge jobs now go to Russell Group. And their foreign equivalents.
And I feel this despite making very good money backing that GE19 landslide. So, you know, it's pure altruistic wisdom on my part.
"Assuming too of course Merz will follow Merkel's lead and still refuse to do any deal with the Afd"
And now again
"or a CDU and FDP and AfD deal"
It's not going to happen.
I'll indulge you:
Say Merz becomes CDU chair (possible though far from certain)
And say the CDU/CSU are the largest group after the next election (probable)
And say the only 2 party coalition that can mathematically command a majority is with the Greens(which seems to be what you are suggesting) or Union plus AfD (which looks unlikely)
And say the CDU first choice chancellor candidate is Merz
And say the price for the Greens going into coalition is Merz not being chancellor
Then we know what won't happen: the CDU won't go into coalition with the AfD. Either there will be a Union Green coalition with someone else as chancellor, or the CDU will go into coalition with FDP SPD, or there will be a CDU minority government, or there will be fresh elections (in that order of likelihood).
You suggest the possibility of a Green SPD Linke coalition, but as I think you will realise on reflection, if Union plus AfD (plus FDP) is a majority then Green plus SPD plus Linke isn't.
Think I'm going to take a break and be back when everyone finally accepts brexit is done, the dea is done and there's no going back. Hopefully that will be the case by the new year.
See you then guys, have a good new year.
The only way an Indyscotland border becomes a problem is if the England/EU becomes one too.
The Agreement makes Scottish Independence more rather than less viable.
(i) Brexit is pure xenophobia.
(ii) A significant driver of the Leave vote was xenophobia.
(i) is offensive bollox and (ii) is clearly the truth.
But I was correcting the statement that everyone was being treated the same. They're not.
And I wonder whether it was intended by the Brexiteers - whose attitude towards Ireland during the last 4 years was not that of people realising that the the Irish might have some special claims on the British but of angry incomprehension at the idea that they had to take the Irish seriously - or whether it was an accidental but nonetheless happy outcome.
At any event, I have just recently completed the first stage of a piece of work, which will likely involve me spending time working in Ireland at a later stage. One of my selling points was my EU citizenship precisely because it avoids any issues re whether I could do any necessary follow up work. At the margin when choosing between candidate A and candidate B, this stuff can matter.
I am also bidding for another piece of work next year - again in an EU country - and will be making the same point again.
And you don't have a poll more recent than 4 years and a bit ago? That to me tells me your argument is utterly worthless.
There were 131 symptomatic cases across all arms of the trial and the figure quoted on overall vaccine efficacy of 70.4% relates to these symptomatic cases.
Then there were also 69 asymptomatic cases identified. These were all from COV002, the UK arms of the trial where some had LD/SD and some had SD/SD. Here the LD/SD patients were protected by the vaccine from getting asymptomatic infection, 7 cases in the vaccinated group against 17 in the control group. This represents 58.9% efficacy. But the SD/SD regime was not effective at preventing asymptomatic infection, 22 cases against 23 in the control group. This represents 3.8% efficacy.
Interestingly in the COV002 UK placebo arms of the trial there were 68 symptomatic cases and 40 asymptomatic cases. So quite a high proportion of asymptomatic cases.
Admired by the same kind of people.
Happy not to be one of them.
https://twitter.com/agoodfireburns/status/1343092812116619265?s=20
Furthermore, fishing is linked to the other parts of the deal and is not stand-alone as the government wanted. So divergence elsewhere could lead to retaliation against fishing.
This is not quite the same as negotiations for other coastal states.
The non-EU system was designed for:
1. Indian brides, arranging marriages with British citizens living in the U.K.
2. Exceptionally-skilled workers, with PhDs or specific company skills.
The idea that a British citizen might meet and marry someone whilst living abroad, then wish to relocate back to the U.K., was a massive hole in the system. The key point was the need to prove my income in order to sponsor my wife, but with income earned outside the U.K. not eligible.
It all makes sense!
And sadly Labour are falling for it!
Not that it mattters, expect Labour to be polling in the mid 30s for quite some time now....
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1343184585300062211?s=20
https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1342823322640396288?s=20
https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1342823664983691264?s=20