Categories
Options
Some Predictions For 2021 – politicalbetting.com
Some Predictions For 2021 – politicalbetting.com
(This is the first of several posts this week in which prominent PBers give their predictions for the New Year)
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Reveillez-vous !!
Back in the real world I had posted that I liked most of Robert's predictions. The only one with which I have a query is his optimism about the speed of covid's departure. Especially with mutations I think it may stick around a good bit longer than end Q2. Otherwise some great suggestions.
Now see if this vanishes again. I blame it on Dominion.
Nice piece Robert. On the predictions:
1 - I agree on the rollout - imo it could have its back broken well before Easter in the UK if we get our Rs in gear. Though I'm concerned at the blip downwards in vaccination rate in the last 10 days before Christmas.
2 - I think the changes to travel/visa arrangements may be a damp squib for many, many people. Arguably making it more difficult to live in 2 countries at once is a win for saving the planet - I'll never forget the Extinction Rebellion demonstrator admitting that she commuted weekly from the Netherlands to London.
But a small number of people may be seriously affected. And many more applications for Irish passports from those people for whom it is a serious problem.
3 - Ireland / NI will be a powerful choice of European Headquarters.
4 - There will be some changes in the insulation industry. Kingspan is a 4bn entrepreneurial Irish Company, and Kingspan is part of 20bn Saint Gobain who own Jewson and others.
Will they still exist? And what will they get stung for? And is this issue multinational?
5 - Currently disputed Planning Reforms will happen despite another level of Appeal from the various single issue groups, and that will loosen up repurposing of many buildings - which may help town centres.
(I'm talking about Use Classes - what you can do with a building, not the politics about the "formula". There has always been a formula to set requirements for local Housing Needs in Local Plans.)
6 - I would *like* to see Building Regulations inspections tightened up to be a full 100% on new estates, not a sample of a couple of houses.
Moderna & Pfizer/BioNTech are 95% effective in preventing any signs of CV19 infection. AZN is about 66% effective by that measure.
HOWEVER, AZN also reduces the chance of really serious CV19 by around 95%, and probably reduces your infectiousness quite significantly.
If everyone has the AZN vaccine, it reduces CV19 to flu season..
Perhaps bad flu season, but flu season nonetheless.
But, still, I'd probably want to most vulnerable - or those on the front line - the get the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.
I was wondering where the leak about MHRA approval comes from. I've noticed several Oxford sources trying to put subtle pressure on the regulator to approve, and I wonder if the leak is genuine or whether it's an attempt to bounce them. AZN's intervention might be in response to the leak, or it might be further pressure.
I guess it won't take long to find out, since approval will either happen next week or not, and they must publish soon.
--AS
Astra Zeneca’s chief executive, Pascal Soriot, today reveals that new data will show the vaccine is as effective as the Pfizer and Moderna jabs that have already been approved, protecting 95% of patients, and is “100% effective” in preventing severe illness requiring hospital treatment.
Then later it says...
“We think we have figured out the winning formula and how to get efficacy that, after two doses, is up there with everybody else,” said Soriot.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/future-relationship-trade-deal
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1343083317080555520?s=20
Let's hope thing do return to normal. Not sure I'm putting money on it, though.
Sectors will recover at varying speeds, and possibly travel will still be struggling into the summer with new restrictions related to vaccination. But the general short term outlook is very positive, and with a general feeling of exuberance as we are released from this winter, markets are likely to surge. I’d avoid the US which is already at record highs, but elsewhere markets look good value.
The suggestion that inflation returns in the second half of the year isn’t wild. Demand will be strong but supply will be limited, as production takes time to recover from this year’s disruption. It’s a classic inflation scenario, and only feels weird because we haven’t seen inflation for such a long time. This will likely deliver negative real interest rates and various other economic shocks, and 2021 will probably be a year to sell in May, as per the old adage.
LA county has faced an onslaught of terrifying Covid developments in recent days, including a surge in deaths, dire shortages of hospital resources, and fears that doctors will have to make agonizing choices to ration care.
Officials in LA county estimated that one in 95 residents were currently infectious, and that two residents were dying of Covid every hour. More than 6,000 Covid patients are in the hospital, and intensive care units (ICU) are filled to capacity.
On the economy, I think the recovery will be patchy. There is huge pent up demand, but it is not evenly spread - either geographically or demographically. Work from homers and the retired will have cash to burn. Others not so much. I hope my sister can hang on with her pub until springtime. If she can she’ll make a mint as it’s mostly a music venue and a lot of people in London are going to want to go to gigs. I also think the end of FoM is going to push up house prices in many coastal communities - something of a mixed blessing given many purchasers will be second homers or holiday let companies.
Brexit means more red tape and higher costs, so many export-led UK businesses will have to work to tighter margins or make sacrifices elsewhere. But this will have a cumulative rather than immediate effect so will not be massively apparent. As many others have said, a slow puncture rather than a car crash. Possession of an Irish passport becomes a golden ticket in the UK on 1st January.
All in all, 2021 should be a good year for the Tories. But they may find they are running out of kilter with the economy as the next general election approaches.
The early findings suggested the low dose, full dose regimen may have reduced the number of asymptomatic cases. Reducing the number of unknowingly infected people in a population could cut back on transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes Covid-19. But lead author Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford vaccine group, suggested more data are needed to see if this effect is real.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/08/detailed-data-on-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-show-it-has-moderate-efficacy/
It will also be a great vaccine for the third world, who can’t deal with the refrigeration costs of the other vaccines.
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/azd1222-oxford-phase-iii-trials-interim-analysis-results-published-in-the-lancet.html
While they collected data on asymptomatic collections, that has not been released. (Which is, in itself, mildly suspicious.)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-08/astra-shot-better-at-stopping-covid-than-slowing-transmission
It's a question of Occam's razor.
"The study also measured protection against asymptomatic infection by asking volunteers to do regular swabs to check if they had Covid without feeling unwell.
More of these cases were seen in the group that did not receive the vaccine."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55228422
"The Oxford and AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine prevented some asymptomatic covid-19 infections in phase III trials, but the effect was mainly seen in the group who received a half dose first, followed by a full dose, the peer reviewed efficacy results have shown.1
The study, published in the Lancet, found that vaccine efficacy against asymptomatic transmission was 59% in the group that received a half dose followed by a standard dose (seven cases among 1120 participants versus 17 cases among 1127 participants in the control group), but just 4% in the group that received two standard doses (22 among 2168 participants versus 23 among 2223 for the control). The researchers said, however, that as this was a secondary outcome, additional confirmation was still required."
By 31 December 2021 PB remainers will still be banging on about Brexit
The key point to remember is that what is likely to happen is a three way split in the vote, with Plaid, Labour and the Tories all hovering between 15 and 25. With things that close, quite marginal differential turnout could see Labour ambushed in a number of places (Bridgend, especially if Carwyn Jones retires, looks very vulnerable, and I wouldn’t rule out a major shock in Llanelli) while it seems very likely the former UKIP vote will be hoovered up by the Blues.
If there is a market on only those three parties to hold seats in the Assembly, any price would be good there. The Liberal Democrats will almost certainly lose Brecon and Radnor, and have few opportunities on the list that Plaid cannot exploit more effectively. This election will therefore mark the more or less formal end of Liberalism in Wales after a very proud tradition of 162 years of unbroken representation at a national level. Whatever Farage’s
ego tripparty is calling itself this week is not likely to cut through now Brexit is effectively over for the bulk of the populace.By June 2021 there will be a Labour/Plaid coalition of some sort. There will have to be, as neither Price nor Drakeford will in practice be willing to work with the Tories - it would piss off too many of their supporters. It is therefore frustrating that there is no market on Next First Minister. Plaid will almost certainly demand one of their own as FM as the price (no pun intended, for once) of their support in any formal arrangement. This is particularly true as between the disaster that is his management of Wales in many areas, most prominently but not solely Covid and with his key ally Corbyn completely removed, Drakeford is an increasingly isolated and abject figure even within Labour (if they come second in terms of seats, Vaughan Gething will be on manoeuvres).
I don’t think Price will be able to get himself to FM (although the Tories might offer him that, Labour will not) but Elin Jones, Rhun ab Iorwerth and even Helen Mary Jones might be possible alternatives. Elin Jones in particular has the experience and cross-party support, while Rhun ab Iorwerth has the national profile given his status as a bilingual television presenter for many years. So it is frustrating there is no market for next FM.
*quite likely with other vaccines too.
Asking for a friend.
Ah, my coat...
Meanwhile PB Leavers will go very quiet on sunlit uplands...🌄
Please remember this is a government that has effectively forbidden staff to isolate if in contact with infected students, and made some bizarre leaps of logic to do so, because otherwise schools would have had to shut.
I will be watching his devolution policies with a keen eye. My suspicion is they'll end up being bullshit to carve England into pieces.
The key point to remember is that what is likely to happen is a three way split in the vote, with Plaid, Labour and the Tories all hovering between 15 and 25. With things that close, quite marginal differential turnout could see Labour ambushed in a number of places (Bridgend, especially if Carwyn Jones retires, looks very vulnerable, and I wouldn’t rule out a major shock in Llanelli) while it seems very likely the former UKIP vote will be hoovered up by the Blues.
If there is a market on only those three parties to hold seats in the Assembly, any price would be good there. The Liberal Democrats will almost certainly lose Brecon and Radnor, and have few opportunities on the list that Plaid cannot exploit more effectively. This election will therefore mark the more or less formal end of Liberalism in Wales after a very proud tradition of 162 years of unbroken representation at a national level. Whatever Farage’s
ego tripparty is calling itself this week is not likely to cut through now Brexit is effectively over for the bulk of the populace.By June 2021 there will be a Labour/Plaid coalition of some sort. There will have to be, as neither Price nor Drakeford will in practice be willing to work with the Tories - it would piss off too many of their supporters. It is therefore frustrating that there is no market on Next First Minister. Plaid will almost certainly demand one of their own as FM as the price (no pun intended, for once) of their support in any formal arrangement. This is particularly true as between the disaster that is his management of Wales in many areas, most prominently but not solely Covid and with his key ally Corbyn completely removed, Drakeford is an increasingly isolated and abject figure even within Labour (if they come second in terms of seats, Vaughan Gething will be on manoeuvres).
I don’t think Price will be able to get himself to FM (although the Tories might offer him that, Labour will not) but Elin Jones, Rhun ab Iorwerth and even Helen Mary Jones might be possible alternatives. Elin Jones in particular has the experience and cross-party support, while Rhun ab Iorwerth has the national profile given his status as a bilingual television presenter for many years. So it is frustrating there is no market for next FM.
Value bets are very different to sure fire ones!
I think "entirely faded from sight" is hyperbolic, remembering that the world is wider than the Western world, and remembering the ever-present danger of the virus evolving in a way that may at least reduce the effectiveness of vaccines.
On the other hand, I think that within that timescale the vaccines should bring to an end the "crisis phase" of the pandemic, in which infection is in danger of running out of control.
It's what happens in the next couple of months in the UK that worries me. I hope a full lockdown will be capable of controlling the new variant, but it's not clear. There is a possibility that the NHS may be unable to cope, and that there will be a lot of unnecessary deaths.
Do the Tories ditch it, break their manifesto promise and piss off a large chunk of their voters?
Or do they keep it, ensuring that the worst financial hit of the pandemic goes on the young?
Incidentally, I expect them to choose option b, but I don’t think it’s quite as straightforward a tradeoff as they believe. How many parents will be in the unfortunate @Cyclefree’s position and seeking to support children going through financial shit due to Covid? I’m guessing it will be a lot. And they won’t be happy about that...
I’m hopeful for the AZN vaccine, but want to see any updated results published.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1343108237437108224?s=20
Unlike Adonis.
Given that the government have literally bet everything on keeping schools open, to the extent that there is a possible prosecution incoming for major breaches of the Health and Safety at Work act, that suggests that even they are also extremely worried.
There will probably have to be primary legislation to defer what would be seen as excessive rises in spending, as a result of a temporary spike in growth and inflation caused by coming out of a sharp recession.
Personally I think they have to go with option A, and eat the unpopularity and rebellion in the short term. There’s really no room for increases in public spending until the finances are back under control, with the exception of infrastructure investment that creates jobs.
As a counter example there's nothing to say that the Pfizer vaccine as a contrast couldn't simply turn most the symptomatic cases into asymptomatic resulting in actually *more* asymptomatic in the vaccine arm than control arm.
For the true stopping of infections being passed on it'd make more statistical sense to add up both the asymptomatic and symptomatic cases in both arms and compare.
If not, I think we should suspend judgement for now.
If we assume that 20% have had or will have had the virus by the end of the vaccines, I believe to achieve 60% herd immunity threshold you need to vaccinate about 65% of people to drop R under everything normal below 1.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext
That has 29 against 40 for the asymptomatic cases (Table 2).
1) It would help bring the infection rate under control again;
2) With schools closed, they could be used as vaccine centres if the AZN vaccine is approved, and speed up the rollout of the vaccine that way;
3) It would provide some certainty in terms of planning and delivery;
4) It would also mean that there’s a fighting chance that not every secondary school will simultaneously be plunged into bankruptcy due to higher costs and a staffing crisis due to every teacher thinking ‘fuck this for a game of soldiers’ in May.
And arguments against:
1) Remote learning is a very poor substitute even for the pale shadow of education we’re able to provide right now;
2) Not every child has access to it, and many of those that do have no suitable space to work at home;
3) Vulnerable children and those on free school meals suffer disproportionately when not able to go to school;
4) It would mean cancelling exams - although truthfully this is a meaningless argument as any government with half a brain cell would have cancelled them already.
The issue is that in putting forward the arguments in favour of staying open the government is ignoring the crucial point - now we have an end date, and it’s in the near future, it’s better to keep tight restrictions for a short time than have the utter chaos of on/off opening, closing, isolating, confusion that we have had up to now for longer. There are ways round arguments 2 and 3 against, although it would mean sacrificing argument 2 in favour. So the logical course is at least to look at blended learning.
But I am perfectly certain they won’t do it unless an actual gun is pointed at their heads.
And ultimately that’s not because they care about children - they don’t - but because they are too cowardly to admit they have failed in what they tried to do.
The raft of Covid-fighting measures taken, impacting liberty and the nation's finances, were to protect those of pension age. Sorry pensioners, but you are going to have to make your contribution to righting the nation's finances too. It can't be left to your grand-kids and their kids alone to climb out the black hole. That would not be fair.
And that will leave to some grumbles, from those who always grumble. But no great wailing of "broken promises" from the wider electorate. Becasue they will it is equitable. I really think Boris can sell that. (Although he may leave the job to Rishi....!)
If Robert's predictions are correct we will wonder why we didn't Brexit years ago.
After the de-mob happy spending spree is over, I believe what comes next will be very difficult, not just in the UK but across the world.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-26/overwhelmed-l-a-hospitals-brace-for-post-christmas-covid-wave
I am therefore quite comfortable in saying they are not reputable. And while I like the figures they publish here, and cited them myself a few weeks back with a rider that they couldn’t be trusted given the source, I am not going to bet the house on anything published in them.
So again - has it been published by a reputable journal?
The dismantling of the union as a result of Brexit is going to be a key talking point this year whatever else happens
Unemployment cheques run out for people today, eviction ban ends and there is a government shutdown on Monday.
The GOP are going for a burn it all down approach.
While it may be arguable that the Lancet is no longer a publication which has the reputation to add weight to a dubious paper, solid science is not tarnished simply by appearing in it.
Or are they just so dumb they haven’t thought of those?
Seeing into the future isn't my strong point but here are a few suggestions about possibilities, based on what we've experienced through this pandemic.
The assumption is we want to be better prepared for the next one. So:
1) Bring back National Service! Only this time, for staffing the Health Service and Care Homes rather than the armed forces. Set up an equivalent to the TA, so that people train for those roles alongside their ordinary jobs. Perhaps impossible to develop much above a basic level of expertise but even that could be useful, given that in the early days they were talking about redeploying air stewards to help out.
2) Expand training facilities for medicine/nursing. Since applications are always over-subscribed there are certainly enough people who want to take it up.
3) Provide facilities for quarantining people. That might mean hotels having action plans for turning themselves into isolation accommodation. Keep addressing the need for quarantine in a pandemic, so that (like smoking & drink-driving) public opinion will start to exert its own pressure.
4) Probably most important, be prepared to learn from other countries that handled it better than we did.
It shouldn’t, in an ideal world. But the first thing any PhD student looking to publish is taught is to pick their publishers carefully.