The one area over which the UK government does have control is the ability to request an emergency extension of the transition period. Given the current chaos and unpredictability, surely even the most ardent Brexiteer would support that. Inflicting more uncertainty on ourselves at this time makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
Given the COVID situation - and you clearly think the French action has fuck all to do with Brexit - it makes no difference.
I am shocked that a Remainer is coming to the conclusion that we need to agree a bad deal.
These are old battles. There is no deal. We don't need to worry about what we sign as there isn't one to sign. What is now absolutely clear is that the border arrangement doesn't work. Your "bad deal" or even a "good deal" will in all practical senses have the same impact as no deal - gridlock.
When negotiations resume it will be the UK asking for a new deal because we will want to find an arrangement that lets the border function again.
Brexit boosters have told us it will be fine, because human ingenuity will find a way to solve the problems of borders. Perhaps their youthfulness means they don't recognise that the Single Market and Customs Union were ingenious solutions to the problems of borders.
And those of us who didn't deal much with Europe just had to go swivel, did we?
No.
But the UK still hasn't had the grown up conversation with itself about the advantages and disadvantages of the 1990-2020 setup compared with alternatives. Or how to help the losers from that setup.
If we're honest, we don't have a workable alternative understood for... eleven days time, just a hope that the market will provide. And while the market can unlock remarkable things, some things are just impossible.
I know I posted this yesterday, it for me it sums up Brexit and Boris.
“I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a Brexit code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, mis-placed, irrelevant to the real needs, and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Tory government – a Tory government - stuck in Brussels, negotiating about fish, ignoring the pandemic at home and forced to cancel Christmas for its own people".
Yes, it was a painfully dull post then. And it still is.
It's pathetic how some people want to make everything about Boris and Brexit.
In fact, it's worse than pathetic: it's a disease, a pathological condition. One worse that Superrona and longer lasting - with no hope of recovery.
You are infected with LongBrexit mutant strain 1.7.7.8.2. For you, there is no hope.
That just so doesn't work any longer. You sound like a junior officer on the Titanic trying to raise a laugh about the passengers having an outbreak of iceberg resentment disorder.
Nope. The last 48 hours have been about Superrona.
The terminal pub bores on here want to make it about Boris and Brexit, particularly the Labour rampers who have a political agenda.
It makes me think less of them. And those who defend them.
It's about Brexit as well because of the small matter of the 31st December deadline.
Sometimes timing is all you need to have one issue affect another.
The good news today is that that vaccine roll out is going very well. From the nurses I know that are involved in its delivery there have been allergic reactions at all. The world will be a different place in 2 months
Another reason not to rush through Brexit right now. Do it properly in three months.
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
What expectation ? There's no evidence at all either way, AFAIK.
There's been a lot of chat about how viruses mutate to become less virulent, but I think that mainly wishful thinking. There's zero evidence of a virus with a 1% or thereabouts fatality rate doing so on the timescales we're talking about.
FFS, Sky News interview with Shapps was literally should we panic buy, no, but should we, no, but should we, no...so what you are saying people shouldn't buy that extra amount they normally get in for Christmas...no...but should we....no.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Someone in the Patel mold needs to be stuck in charge of transport. Not a time for the jolly japes of Shapps, need someone who relishes keeping others out.
I don't see how hanging and flogging helps transport. Keep her at the Home Office, where her skillset can be properly utilised.
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
This is what I was wondering last night on here. The proportion of cases to deaths looks slightly odd so far, even considering the lag time.
Ah - sorry I wasn`t on here last night - I`ll look back but was there any mention of the possibility that those with the mutation will have some immunity against both variants for a while? We`ve gone into full-scale panic mode and I`m wondering whether on reflection the mutation could prove a (slightly) positive development rather than one to panic about. The hospitalisation rate of the mutation victims will reveal this I guess.
I haven't heard much on the first point, but the discussion last night with Barnesian, FearsumEnjinya, myself and others I think was more connected to the hope that there doesn't seem to be firm evidence that deaths are rising in line with the current pattern of cases and hospitalisations - as yet, and even considering the lag. Cases have obviously been rising a lot. Let's hope that stays something like the situation overall.
Hopefully if more countries close their borders it may shake our leaders out of their complacency from not doing the same.
Had we not been encouraging a week in Spain during a bloody global pandemic we might have avoided this.
No, we wouldn’t have avoided this. Blaming the 2nd wave of a global pandemic on people partying in Malaga is like blaming the Vietnam War on flamethrowers
I know I posted this yesterday, it for me it sums up Brexit and Boris.
“I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a Brexit code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, mis-placed, irrelevant to the real needs, and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Tory government – a Tory government - stuck in Brussels, negotiating about fish, ignoring the pandemic at home and forced to cancel Christmas for its own people".
Yes, it was a painfully dull post then. And it still is.
It's pathetic how some people want to make everything about Boris and Brexit.
In fact, it's worse than pathetic: it's a disease, a pathological condition. One worse that Superrona and longer lasting - with no hope of recovery.
You are infected with LongBrexit mutant strain 1.7.7.8.2. For you, there is no hope.
That just so doesn't work any longer. You sound like a junior officer on the Titanic trying to raise a laugh about the passengers having an outbreak of iceberg resentment disorder.
Nope. The last 48 hours have been about Superrona.
The terminal pub bores on here want to make it about Boris and Brexit, particularly the Labour rampers who have a political agenda.
It makes me think less of them. And those who defend them.
It's about Brexit as well because of the small matter of the 31st December deadline.
Sometimes timing is all you need to have one issue affect another.
I just cannot see the 1st January being anything other than confirmation we have left the EU and lots of temporary measures put in place, indeed I expect the same in a deal situation
Rightly or wrongly I do not expect Boris to ask for an actual extension
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
This is what I was wondering last night on here. The proportion of cases to deaths looks slightly odd so far, even considering the lag time.
Ah - sorry I wasn`t on here last night - I`ll look back but was there any mention of the possibility that those with the mutation will have some immunity against both variants for a while? We`ve gone into full-scale panic mode and I`m wondering whether on reflection the mutation could prove a (slightly) positive development rather than one to panic about. The hospitalisation rate of the mutation victims will reveal this I guess.
The report suggested 4 deaths every 1000 infections.
Someone in the Patel mold needs to be stuck in charge of transport. Not a time for the jolly japes of Shapps, need someone who relishes keeping others out.
Patel is literally in charge of the border. HM Border Force are in the Home Office. She runs them. She could give the order at any time...
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
What expectation ? There's no evidence at all either way, AFAIK.
There's been a lot of chat about how viruses mutate to become less virulent, but I think that mainly wishful thinking. There's zero evidence of a virus with a 1% or thereabouts fatality rate doing so on the timescales we're talking about.
Especially as it can spread before symptoms show. That reduces the evolutionary pressure to become less virulent. Apparently one of the reasons the original SARS turned out easier to suppress was that, by the time you were infectious, you were too ill to go out. So patients tended to self-isolate.
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
I think mutations towards higher transmissibility also resulting in lower virulence has been observed as a general tendency, but that doesn't mean that it always applies to individual mutations. It's quite possible to get worse in both respects.
To everyone suggesting Bojo is not up to the job - and I agree his upbeat personality is a bad fit with Black Death - they also need to suggest their desired alternative.
Quite frankly, we aren’t blessed with gritty, ballsy, smart, capable, determined, inspiring and unflinching leaders.
The best I can come up with is Jeremy Hunt, which says it all.
Perfectly fresh fruit is rare, so we'll just settle for the piece that is the most rotten and mouldy? It's a view, I suppose.
So who do you suggest? That’s my question. My best yet disappointing answer is Hunt
Theresa May has the experience to do the job and is available. She also appears to be less prone to panicking than many other UK politicians.
We now face the possibility of blockage to UK trade with Europe that could lead to food shortages, rationing, and economic meltdown. Did it occur to anyone in the government, scientists or ministers or advisors, that this could be the results of this weekend's scary announcements? The matter has been overdramatised, at a time when the increased transmissibility of the new variant has not been proven yet. The Johnson government seems to be disintegrating before our eyes.
Christ no. TMay? The worst prime minister since Cameron.
Seriously, she’s dreadful. Her utterly moronic ‘red line’ Conference speech single handedly turned Brexit into a nightmare. Besides being ignorant, myopic, stubborn, awkward and vain, she is deeply boring in a Merkel-esque way, without any of the Teutonic competence of Merkel.
She’s probably a nice kind person and all that, and I wish her a happy retirement, but No
I've long thought that Hague was the 'under the bus' stand in reserve leader for the Tory party. I think it still applies whilst he's a Lord
FFS, Sky News interview with Shapps was literally should we panic buy, no, but should we, no, but should we, no...so what you are saying people shouldn't buy that extra amount they normally get in for Christmas...no...but should we....no.
At least Kay Burley is off the case!
Praise the Lord.....she would be asking stuff about the fact she usually buy a fresh game / bird from France, for Christmas, can I have it imported via the postal service...
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
As so often, we're probably looking at the smaller question.
The story of this week is the clown's fondness for playing politics, and for avoiding confrontation with his own MPs. So making fun of Starmer on Wednesday and avoiding any parliamentary scrutiny on Thursday made waiting until the end of the week the preferred time to change direction.
The bigger question is why on earth we didn't continue the semi-lockdown through the first few weeks of December? - as many of us suggested and expected back in November - thus maximising the chance that we'd be able to spend Christmas with our families. What we've done is arrange things so that the peak risk period has dropped right into the middle of the holidays, depriving many people of a chance to see their friends and relatives; something that had been sustaining them through the dark days of autumn and winter. That's the real stupidity. We know the 'new' strain has been around since Sept/Oct yet the November infection rates were falling almost everywhere (except, notably, London in mid-November, which was when London 'went bad').
If this strain is prevalent, rather than just present, in places on the continent, we should know it by puzzlingly failed or failing lockdowns, we should know it by direct comparison with how it has spread, under lockdown, in Kent.
Are there any such outbreaks in Europe which for the bill??
UK lockdowns don't work because they aren't really lockdowns. Compare what we did in November (which was a hell of a lot less restrictive than March and far less complied with) with France where they were back to requiring papers, night-time curfews, the works.
As i said above - Tier 4 in London at the weekend was normal life for many people without being able to eat an evening meal in a restaurant.
Lockdown is another word who's meaning has changed and become devalued.
Oh I see Casino_Royale is back to his condescending posting style, I'll wait until he's left the building
I see the PB Uber Tories have dusted themselves down after the shock of Saturday evening. Clearly they have decided the best form of defence is attack.
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
What expectation ? There's no evidence at all either way, AFAIK.
There's been a lot of chat about how viruses mutate to become less virulent, but I think that mainly wishful thinking. There's zero evidence of a virus with a 1% or thereabouts fatality rate doing so on the timescales we're talking about.
Another unnerving possibility doing the rounds is that Supercovid is so different to its inferior parent, if you caught the first version you no longer have immunity to New, Improved Covid
Reading the NERVTAG comments, they are....er.....'moderately confident' the strain is up to 70% quicker in transmission.
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
If it isn't the UK, my money would be on somewhere like California, where there's been a huge growth in cases. And you'd expect anything from there to arrive in London first.
Where the virus originated is irrelevant - it appears to have emerged from a seriously ill and probably immune-compromised individual who survived long enough for the virus to mutate and reinfect others.
What does matter is its identification and the (emerging, but far from complete) understanding of its properties - in this, the UK has done the world a favour.
Truly, no good deed goes unpunished.
I suspect recent "unexplained" explosions in case numbers in some European countries will find an explanation soon enough.
As to the border closures its what panicking governments not in command of the facts do - so its far from surprising.
Here are the contributions to the understanding of one of the strains:
https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.N501?p=grid&r=country Argentina (6) Australia (329) Bahrain (13) Bangladesh (20) Belgium (1) Botswana (1) Brazil (26) Canada (60) Chile (25) China (56) Colombia (2) Czech Republic (1) Côte d'Ivoire (4) Democratic Republic of the Congo (17) Denmark (54) Ecuador (30) Egypt (5) Finland (1) France (37) Gambia (3) Georgia (1) Germany (6) Ghana (5) Greece (1) Hong Kong (9) Iceland (2) India (92) Indonesia (2) Israel (8) Italy (23) Japan (24) Jordan (1) Kenya (20) Luxembourg (3) Madagascar (1) Malaysia (1) Mexico (3) Morocco (5) Netherlands (75) New Zealand (46) Nigeria (7) North Macedonia (3) Norway (5) Oman (1) Pakistan (4) Palestine (1) Peru (125) Russia (12) Saint Barthélemy (1) Saint Martin (1) Saudi Arabia (24) Senegal (4) Sierra Leone (1) Singapore (36) Slovenia (3) South Africa (389) South Korea (6) Spain (10) Sri Lanka (5) Sweden (8) Switzerland (5) Taiwan (6) Thailand (11) Trinidad (3) Tunisia (11) USA (306) Uganda (1) United Arab Emirates (25) United Kingdom (1547) Uruguay (2) Vietnam (7)
Reading the NERVTAG comments, they are....er.....'moderately confident' the strain is up to 70% quicker in transmission.
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
So the Brits have discovered a variant that is (a) less virulent and (b) more infective, meaning it will rapidly supplant the original deadly Chinese version. But the world is shutting its doors because it prefers the old one?
Heading for a three cent fall in a day, which is pretty unusual
Never mind, I am sure someone will be along in a minute to explain why that's a good thing.
Btw, I couldn't open the instagram pic of your dog but will try again later. I am sure it is cute!
Since we do not have a balance of trade surplus the pound falling helps our exporters and hurts importers. It also eases the pressure on FTSE etc which haven't fallen as much as the DAX.
Swings and roundabouts. There's no reason to put some phallic symbolism in the exchange rate as a form of strength or manliness.
Heading for a three cent fall in a day, which is pretty unusual
Never mind, I am sure someone will be along in a minute to explain why that's a good thing.
Btw, I couldn't open the instagram pic of your dog but will try again later. I am sure it is cute!
Since we do not have a balance of trade surplus the pound falling helps our exporters and hurts importers. It also eases the pressure on FTSE etc which haven't fallen as much as the DAX.
Swings and roundabouts. There's no reason to put some phallic symbolism in the exchange rate as a form of strength or manliness.
Reading the NERVTAG comments, they are....er.....'moderately confident' the strain is up to 70% quicker in transmission.
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
So the Brits have discovered a variant that is (a) less virulent and (b) more infective, meaning it will rapidly supplant the original deadly Chinese version. But the world is shutting its doors because it prefers the old one?
We don't know its less virulent, NERVTAG have not discerned any change in virulence yet just infectivity.
Heading for a three cent fall in a day, which is pretty unusual
Never mind, I am sure someone will be along in a minute to explain why that's a good thing.
Btw, I couldn't open the instagram pic of your dog but will try again later. I am sure it is cute!
Since we do not have a balance of trade surplus the pound falling helps our exporters and hurts importers. It also eases the pressure on FTSE etc which haven't fallen as much as the DAX.
Swings and roundabouts. There's no reason to put some phallic symbolism in the exchange rate as a form of strength or manliness.
See my earlier post! WTF are we actually exporting via our gridlocked M2 and closed ports?
Shapps has presided over one of the UK's most egregious COVID policy failures - its complete failure to mount any sort of effective border control/quarantine.
Shapps has effectively communicated that policy failure. If the government are going to continue with failed policies (likely) then he could be their man
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
Philip. The government knew this new pox was out there which was why Shagger talked about it on Monday. So, politically, was on Wednesday calling the idea of cancelling Christmas "inhuman" (a) wise, or (b) unwise?
Your argument is that Johnson knew literally nothing and could not foresee any circumstance where the plans for Christmas might need to be changed. Which as we both know isn't the case. So why are you once again parroting patent bollox?
Heading for a three cent fall in a day, which is pretty unusual
Never mind, I am sure someone will be along in a minute to explain why that's a good thing.
Btw, I couldn't open the instagram pic of your dog but will try again later. I am sure it is cute!
Since we do not have a balance of trade surplus the pound falling helps our exporters and hurts importers. It also eases the pressure on FTSE etc which haven't fallen as much as the DAX.
Swings and roundabouts. There's no reason to put some phallic symbolism in the exchange rate as a form of strength or manliness.
You can’t export today.
Oh shit the internet has been shut down? We can't export our services? 😲
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
I think mutations towards higher transmissibility also resulting in lower virulence has been observed as a general tendency, but that doesn't mean that it always applies to individual mutations. It's quite possible to get worse in both respects.
But unlikely. Covid - or its strapping offspring - is doing a pretty brilliant job of its one and only task: infecting every human on earth.
What would it gain (yes, I know it isn’t actually sentient) from becoming nastier and killing more hosts, thus reducing its ability to spread? Corpses don’t generally infect other people. And if it becomes more lethal humans will go into ultimate lockdown, which is also a setback for the bug.
I am not a virologist but the evolutionary pressure on a virus like this is not to become nastier.
Someone in the Patel mold needs to be stuck in charge of transport. Not a time for the jolly japes of Shapps, need someone who relishes keeping others out.
You mean someone with the ambition of Stalin and the acumen of Mr Bean?
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
Philip. The government knew this new pox was out there which was why Shagger talked about it on Monday. So, politically, was on Wednesday calling the idea of cancelling Christmas "inhuman" (a) wise, or (b) unwise?
Your argument is that Johnson knew literally nothing and could not foresee any circumstance where the plans for Christmas might need to be changed. Which as we both know isn't the case. So why are you once again parroting patent bollox?
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
SAGE were clearly incensed when we moved out of lockdown in early December. They made sure their latest initiative to restore their power could not be scrutinised by parliament.
And they know that Johnson is a very weak man, happy to sacrifice those who can hurt him least on any given day.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
If you can't see why Wednesday's attitude is a problem then I can't help you. However, were someone to try and pull that trick on a client, I would be asking them to explain what evidence they had on Wednesday to justify their attitude that day and considering whether to keep them in that role.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
SAGE were clearly incensed when we moved out of lockdown in early December. They made sure their latest initiative to restore their power could not be scrutinised by parliament.
And they know that Johnson is a very weak man, happy to sacrifice those who can hurt him least on any given day.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
SAGE were clearly incensed when we moved out of lockdown in early December. They made sure their latest initiative to restore their power could not be scrutinised by parliament.
And they know that Johnson is a very weak man, happy to sacrifice those who can hurt him least on any given day.
Reading the NERVTAG comments, they are....er.....'moderately confident' the strain is up to 70% quicker in transmission.
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
So the Brits have discovered a variant that is (a) less virulent and (b) more infective, meaning it will rapidly supplant the original deadly Chinese version. But the world is shutting its doors because it prefers the old one?
We don't know its less virulent, NERVTAG have not discerned any change in virulence yet just infectivity.
We don;t even know its 70% quicker in transmission. This is not a fact. SAGE are 'moderately confident' it may be true.
If it isn't the UK, my money would be on somewhere like California, where there's been a huge growth in cases. And you'd expect anything from there to arrive in London first.
Where the virus originated is irrelevant - it appears to have emerged from a seriously ill and probably immune-compromised individual who survived long enough for the virus to mutate and reinfect others.
What does matter is its identification and the (emerging, but far from complete) understanding of its properties - in this, the UK has done the world a favour.
Truly, no good deed goes unpunished.
I suspect recent "unexplained" explosions in case numbers in some European countries will find an explanation soon enough.
As to the border closures its what panicking governments not in command of the facts do - so its far from surprising.
Here are the contributions to the understanding of one of the strains:
https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.N501?p=grid&r=country Argentina (6) Australia (329) Bahrain (13) Bangladesh (20) Belgium (1) Botswana (1) Brazil (26) Canada (60) Chile (25) China (56) Colombia (2) Czech Republic (1) Côte d'Ivoire (4) Democratic Republic of the Congo (17) Denmark (54) Ecuador (30) Egypt (5) Finland (1) France (37) Gambia (3) Georgia (1) Germany (6) Ghana (5) Greece (1) Hong Kong (9) Iceland (2) India (92) Indonesia (2) Israel (8) Italy (23) Japan (24) Jordan (1) Kenya (20) Luxembourg (3) Madagascar (1) Malaysia (1) Mexico (3) Morocco (5) Netherlands (75) New Zealand (46) Nigeria (7) North Macedonia (3) Norway (5) Oman (1) Pakistan (4) Palestine (1) Peru (125) Russia (12) Saint Barthélemy (1) Saint Martin (1) Saudi Arabia (24) Senegal (4) Sierra Leone (1) Singapore (36) Slovenia (3) South Africa (389) South Korea (6) Spain (10) Sri Lanka (5) Sweden (8) Switzerland (5) Taiwan (6) Thailand (11) Trinidad (3) Tunisia (11) USA (306) Uganda (1) United Arab Emirates (25) United Kingdom (1547) Uruguay (2) Vietnam (7)
The world's hardest hit country:
Belgium (1).
Very interesting point. No one has adequately explained why Belgium is such a tragic outlier. Its death toll is awful and its statistics aren’t collated so very differently.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
SAGE were clearly incensed when we moved out of lockdown in early December. They made sure their latest initiative to restore their power could not be scrutinised by parliament.
And they know that Johnson is a very weak man, happy to sacrifice those who can hurt him least on any given day.
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
What expectation ? There's no evidence at all either way, AFAIK.
There's been a lot of chat about how viruses mutate to become less virulent, but I think that mainly wishful thinking. There's zero evidence of a virus with a 1% or thereabouts fatality rate doing so on the timescales we're talking about.
Another unnerving possibility doing the rounds is that Supercovid is so different to its inferior parent, if you caught the first version you no longer have immunity to New, Improved Covid
Perhaps but surely we'd have heard by now? Unless Covid causes amnesia, newly-diagnosed patients will remember if they had it last summer. Of course, that's not to say that one of the next hundred variants will not fool the immune system.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
If you can't see why Wednesday's attitude is a problem then I can't help you. However, were someone to try and pull that trick on a client, I would be asking them to explain what evidence they had on Wednesday to justify their attitude that day and considering whether to keep them in that role.
PMQs is Punch and Judy. Always has been. Starmer stokes that by going on the attack every week and Boris feeds into it too. C'est la vie, why get hung up on Punch and Judy gibberish from either side?
The science changed on Thursday. They immediately acted. When the facts change you need to change your mind, he did and acted quickly.
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
What expectation ? There's no evidence at all either way, AFAIK.
There's been a lot of chat about how viruses mutate to become less virulent, but I think that mainly wishful thinking. There's zero evidence of a virus with a 1% or thereabouts fatality rate doing so on the timescales we're talking about.
Another unnerving possibility doing the rounds is that Supercovid is so different to its inferior parent, if you caught the first version you no longer have immunity to New, Improved Covid
It's possible. Not likely, from what I can understand, but something they will be desperate to get data on asap - and even more so on whether or not it can evade the vaccine induced immunity. Given the new variant can fairly readily be detected through our existing PCR testing (as it fails one of the confirmatory tests), it can be tracked pretty well, so we ought to know one way or the other fairly soon.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
SAGE were clearly incensed when we moved out of lockdown in early December. They made sure their latest initiative to restore their power could not be scrutinised by parliament.
And they know that Johnson is a very weak man, happy to sacrifice those who can hurt him least on any given day.
FFS, Sky News interview with Shapps was literally should we panic buy, no, but should we, no, but should we, no...so what you are saying people shouldn't buy that extra amount they normally get in for Christmas...no...but should we....no.
Even without Kay and Beth, they still find a way to ask stupid questions to ministers.
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
I think mutations towards higher transmissibility also resulting in lower virulence has been observed as a general tendency, but that doesn't mean that it always applies to individual mutations. It's quite possible to get worse in both respects.
But unlikely. Covid - or its strapping offspring - is doing a pretty brilliant job of its one and only task: infecting every human on earth.
What would it gain (yes, I know it isn’t actually sentient) from becoming nastier and killing more hosts, thus reducing its ability to spread? Corpses don’t generally infect other people. And if it becomes more lethal humans will go into ultimate lockdown, which is also a setback for the bug.
I am not a virologist but the evolutionary pressure on a virus like this is not to become nastier.
Or so I hope, up here in Suffolk
All very good points, but the evolutionary pressures don't apply to the mutation itself, but to its success afterwards. In the longer term, a more deadly variant might die out quicker, but in the shorter term, it's the transmissibility that determines its success.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Feels very unlikely Boris will go. No unity candidate available until Brexit is done at least.
Patently obvious that Starmer would have been better - several times he's suggested acting earlier and been proved right.
May and Hunt would have done the work and turned up to COBRA back in Feb/March too. My guess is that would have been beneficial.
I'm not a Boris fan but saying that Starmer has suggested acting sooner a couple of times and got it right is any evidence for his ability to lead is madness. Literally all he has to do is oppose the government by saying they are over or under reacting. Of course he will get this right sometimes.
On the other hand it doesn't mean he wouldn't be better, just that being opposition leader is a poor measure.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
Philip. The government knew this new pox was out there which was why Shagger talked about it on Monday. So, politically, was on Wednesday calling the idea of cancelling Christmas "inhuman" (a) wise, or (b) unwise?
Your argument is that Johnson knew literally nothing and could not foresee any circumstance where the plans for Christmas might need to be changed. Which as we both know isn't the case. So why are you once again parroting patent bollox?
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday not Monday.
Thursday is after Wednesday.
So what was communicated to the PM and Hancock over the previous weekend to prompt their Monday statements?
They knew it was bad. They said it was bad. The NERVTAG report was to confirm how bad. So what kind of pillock says cancelling Christmas would be inhuman whilst waiting for the confirmation that you need to cancel Christmas?
Reading the NERVTAG comments, they are....er.....'moderately confident' the strain is up to 70% quicker in transmission.
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
So the Brits have discovered a variant that is (a) less virulent and (b) more infective, meaning it will rapidly supplant the original deadly Chinese version. But the world is shutting its doors because it prefers the old one?
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
What expectation ? There's no evidence at all either way, AFAIK.
There's been a lot of chat about how viruses mutate to become less virulent, but I think that mainly wishful thinking. There's zero evidence of a virus with a 1% or thereabouts fatality rate doing so on the timescales we're talking about.
Another unnerving possibility doing the rounds is that Supercovid is so different to its inferior parent, if you caught the first version you no longer have immunity to New, Improved Covid
Perhaps but surely we'd have heard by now? Unless Covid causes amnesia, newly-diagnosed patients will remember if they had it last summer. Of course, that's not to say that one of the next hundred variants will not fool the immune system.
Well, I saw two quite eminent scientists discussing this exact point on Twitter last night, and they weren’t sure. So who knows.
I would link, but I’ve forgotten who it was. A surfeit of info confuses
If it isn't the UK, my money would be on somewhere like California, where there's been a huge growth in cases. And you'd expect anything from there to arrive in London first.
Where the virus originated is irrelevant - it appears to have emerged from a seriously ill and probably immune-compromised individual who survived long enough for the virus to mutate and reinfect others.
What does matter is its identification and the (emerging, but far from complete) understanding of its properties - in this, the UK has done the world a favour.
Truly, no good deed goes unpunished.
I suspect recent "unexplained" explosions in case numbers in some European countries will find an explanation soon enough.
As to the border closures its what panicking governments not in command of the facts do - so its far from surprising.
Here are the contributions to the understanding of one of the strains:
https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.N501?p=grid&r=country Argentina (6) Australia (329) Bahrain (13) Bangladesh (20) Belgium (1) Botswana (1) Brazil (26) Canada (60) Chile (25) China (56) Colombia (2) Czech Republic (1) Côte d'Ivoire (4) Democratic Republic of the Congo (17) Denmark (54) Ecuador (30) Egypt (5) Finland (1) France (37) Gambia (3) Georgia (1) Germany (6) Ghana (5) Greece (1) Hong Kong (9) Iceland (2) India (92) Indonesia (2) Israel (8) Italy (23) Japan (24) Jordan (1) Kenya (20) Luxembourg (3) Madagascar (1) Malaysia (1) Mexico (3) Morocco (5) Netherlands (75) New Zealand (46) Nigeria (7) North Macedonia (3) Norway (5) Oman (1) Pakistan (4) Palestine (1) Peru (125) Russia (12) Saint Barthélemy (1) Saint Martin (1) Saudi Arabia (24) Senegal (4) Sierra Leone (1) Singapore (36) Slovenia (3) South Africa (389) South Korea (6) Spain (10) Sri Lanka (5) Sweden (8) Switzerland (5) Taiwan (6) Thailand (11) Trinidad (3) Tunisia (11) USA (306) Uganda (1) United Arab Emirates (25) United Kingdom (1547) Uruguay (2) Vietnam (7)
The world's hardest hit country:
Belgium (1).
Very interesting point. No one has adequately explained why Belgium is such a tragic outlier. Its death toll is awful and its statistics aren’t collated so very differently.
Belgian Flu 2 it is
It has a lot to do with the relatively high proportion of the population in care homes. On a population adjusted basis well above ours.
Reading the NERVTAG comments, they are....er.....'moderately confident' the strain is up to 70% quicker in transmission.
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
Moderately confident about that - but absolutely certain that cases in London/SE are rising very rapidly indeed.
Reading the NERVTAG comments, they are....er.....'moderately confident' the strain is up to 70% quicker in transmission.
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
So the Brits have discovered a variant that is (a) less virulent and (b) more infective, meaning it will rapidly supplant the original deadly Chinese version. But the world is shutting its doors because it prefers the old one?
Reading the NERVTAG comments, they are....er.....'moderately confident' the strain is up to 70% quicker in transmission.
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
So the Brits have discovered a variant that is (a) less virulent and (b) more infective, meaning it will rapidly supplant the original deadly Chinese version. But the world is shutting its doors because it prefers the old one?
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
If you can't see why Wednesday's attitude is a problem then I can't help you. However, were someone to try and pull that trick on a client, I would be asking them to explain what evidence they had on Wednesday to justify their attitude that day and considering whether to keep them in that role.
PMQs is Punch and Judy. Always has been. Starmer stokes that by going on the attack every week and Boris feeds into it too. C'est la vie, why get hung up on Punch and Judy gibberish from either side?
The science changed on Thursday. They immediately acted. When the facts change you need to change your mind, he did and acted quickly.
Boris on Wednesday - Christmas is fine Starmer is lying
Boris on Saturday - Christmas is off and it's off in ways you can't imagine 30 seconds earlier.
The fact it's punch and Judy means there are times you should be more careful in what you say and Wednesday was one of those days.
The Government went from possibility of an issue, to nothing to worry about and then to it's Cancelled in under a week.
And it's the middle bit there that is a problem as it wasn't necessary it was there to score points and it rather backfired.
Half my life is spent doing expectation management and Boris last week is a textbook example on how to complete screw it up by building up false hope after the initial there is a potential problem statement has been issued.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
SAGE were clearly incensed when we moved out of lockdown in early December. They made sure their latest initiative to restore their power could not be scrutinised by parliament.
And they know that Johnson is a very weak man, happy to sacrifice those who can hurt him least on any given day.
In this case the ordinary people of Britain.
You really do live in a fantasy world.
You live in the fantasy world where SAGE are objective and infallible saints despite a stack of hard evidence to the contrary. You do know that shagger Ferguson is on the NERVTAG team right?
Heading for a three cent fall in a day, which is pretty unusual
Never mind, I am sure someone will be along in a minute to explain why that's a good thing.
Btw, I couldn't open the instagram pic of your dog but will try again later. I am sure it is cute!
Since we do not have a balance of trade surplus the pound falling helps our exporters and hurts importers. It also eases the pressure on FTSE etc which haven't fallen as much as the DAX.
Swings and roundabouts. There's no reason to put some phallic symbolism in the exchange rate as a form of strength or manliness.
You can’t export today.
Oh shit the internet has been shut down? We can't export our services? 😲
We have a trade surplus in services, not a deficit as you posted, so the exchange rate movement hurts us (well, except for all the foreign exchange dealers).
A wider question is why Brexit negotiations concentrated on goods, where we do have a thumping great deficit and not services. That's another cunning EU trap we blundered into.
Reading the NERVTAG comments, they are....er.....'moderately confident' the strain is up to 70% quicker in transmission.
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
Moderately confident about that - but absolutely certain that cases in London/SE are rising very rapidly indeed.
Well true. Cases that, in 99.5% of instances, will lead to a complete recovery by the patient, as well as some sort of immunity.
Reading the NERVTAG comments, they are....er.....'moderately confident' the strain is up to 70% quicker in transmission.
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
Moderately confident about that - but absolutely certain that cases in London/SE are rising very rapidly indeed.
Also very confident that case numbers in Kent refused to decline, despite quasi-lockdown, whereas similar restrictions worked fine elsewhere. Why?
I think what this exposes most is the government's naivete on vaccine passports and the vaccine scheduling. Key workers, including those in freight who are very likely to go overseas and NHS staff, should have been first in the queue and they should all get a valid photo ID two weeks after their second jab to say they've had it.
I've been banging on about this for months, there's no point in saving all the old people if there's no economy left to function afterwards. Our vaccine strategy is completely wrong and now with this new mutation we've been caught out again.
For months we should have been testing every single person who entered and left the UK and prevented people who test positive from doing so, the complete failure of the government to do this is why the whole world is closing the border to us including shipping and freight.
If we had a working test on exit solution it's unlikely that any of these measures from other countries would continue beyond a day or two. Now the government needs to scramble one together at the ports to reopen freight and shipping and hope that France etc... think it's enough.
This government has failed to meet every single challenge thrown up by the virus. We're now paying the price for it. It's not been an easy situation but frankly amateurs on PB have had a better crisis than every single minister. It hasn't been an impossible task as some are pretending.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
If you can't see why Wednesday's attitude is a problem then I can't help you. However, were someone to try and pull that trick on a client, I would be asking them to explain what evidence they had on Wednesday to justify their attitude that day and considering whether to keep them in that role.
PMQs is Punch and Judy. Always has been. Starmer stokes that by going on the attack every week and Boris feeds into it too. C'est la vie, why get hung up on Punch and Judy gibberish from either side?
The science changed on Thursday. They immediately acted. When the facts change you need to change your mind, he did and acted quickly.
Boris on Wednesday - Christmas is fine Starmer is lying
Boris on Saturday - Christmas is off and it's off in ways you can't imagine 30 seconds earlier.
The fact it's punch and Judy means there are times you should be more careful in what you say and Wednesday was one of those days.
The Government went from possibility of an issue, to nothing to worry about and then to it's Cancelled in under a week.
And it's the middle bit there that is a problem as it wasn't necessary it was there to score points and it rather backfired.
Half my life is spent doing expectation management and Boris last week is a textbook example on how to complete screw it up by building up false hope after the initial there is a potential problem statement has been issued.
NERVTAG reported between Wednesday and Saturday.
When the facts change you change your mind. All you are doing is emphasising how rapidly and agily Boris was able to pivot and adjust to the post-NERVTAG new reality. Kudos Boris, well done.
Heading for a three cent fall in a day, which is pretty unusual
Never mind, I am sure someone will be along in a minute to explain why that's a good thing.
Btw, I couldn't open the instagram pic of your dog but will try again later. I am sure it is cute!
Since we do not have a balance of trade surplus the pound falling helps our exporters and hurts importers. It also eases the pressure on FTSE etc which haven't fallen as much as the DAX.
Swings and roundabouts. There's no reason to put some phallic symbolism in the exchange rate as a form of strength or manliness.
You can’t export today.
Oh shit the internet has been shut down? We can't export our services? 😲
We have a trade surplus in services, not a deficit as you posted, so the exchange rate movement hurts us (well, except for all the foreign exchange dealers).
A wider question is why Brexit negotiations concentrated on goods, where we do have a thumping great deficit and not services. That's another cunning EU trap we blundered into.
I agree with that which is why I'd lose no sleep over the trade talks failing and us moving to WTO.
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
I think mutations towards higher transmissibility also resulting in lower virulence has been observed as a general tendency, but that doesn't mean that it always applies to individual mutations. It's quite possible to get worse in both respects.
But unlikely. Covid - or its strapping offspring - is doing a pretty brilliant job of its one and only task: infecting every human on earth.
What would it gain (yes, I know it isn’t actually sentient) from becoming nastier and killing more hosts, thus reducing its ability to spread? Corpses don’t generally infect other people. And if it becomes more lethal humans will go into ultimate lockdown, which is also a setback for the bug.
I am not a virologist but the evolutionary pressure on a virus like this is not to become nastier.
Or so I hope, up here in Suffolk
One of the key features of Covid has been that people are infectious in the presymptomatic phase. So if a lot of transmission occurs before someone has symptoms then it matters less to the survival of the virus if the symptoms subsequently developed are fatal to the host.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
If you can't see why Wednesday's attitude is a problem then I can't help you. However, were someone to try and pull that trick on a client, I would be asking them to explain what evidence they had on Wednesday to justify their attitude that day and considering whether to keep them in that role.
PMQs is Punch and Judy. Always has been. Starmer stokes that by going on the attack every week and Boris feeds into it too. C'est la vie, why get hung up on Punch and Judy gibberish from either side?
The science changed on Thursday. They immediately acted. When the facts change you need to change your mind, he did and acted quickly.
Boris on Wednesday - Christmas is fine Starmer is lying
Boris on Saturday - Christmas is off and it's off in ways you can't imagine 30 seconds earlier.
The fact it's punch and Judy means there are times you should be more careful in what you say and Wednesday was one of those days.
The Government went from possibility of an issue, to nothing to worry about and then to it's Cancelled in under a week.
And it's the middle bit there that is a problem as it wasn't necessary it was there to score points and it rather backfired.
Half my life is spent doing expectation management and Boris last week is a textbook example on how to complete screw it up by building up false hope after the initial there is a potential problem statement has been issued.
NERVTAG reported between Wednesday and Saturday.
When the facts change you change your mind. All you are doing is emphasising how rapidly and agily Boris was able to pivot and adjust to the post-NERVTAG new reality. Kudos Boris, well done.
You are missing the point - we knew there was a problem on Monday - the only thing we didn't know was the scale of it.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
If you can't see why Wednesday's attitude is a problem then I can't help you. However, were someone to try and pull that trick on a client, I would be asking them to explain what evidence they had on Wednesday to justify their attitude that day and considering whether to keep them in that role.
PMQs is Punch and Judy. Always has been. Starmer stokes that by going on the attack every week and Boris feeds into it too. C'est la vie, why get hung up on Punch and Judy gibberish from either side?
The science changed on Thursday. They immediately acted. When the facts change you need to change your mind, he did and acted quickly.
Boris on Wednesday - Christmas is fine Starmer is lying
Boris on Saturday - Christmas is off and it's off in ways you can't imagine 30 seconds earlier.
The fact it's punch and Judy means there are times you should be more careful in what you say and Wednesday was one of those days.
The Government went from possibility of an issue, to nothing to worry about and then to it's Cancelled in under a week.
And it's the middle bit there that is a problem as it wasn't necessary it was there to score points and it rather backfired.
Half my life is spent doing expectation management and Boris last week is a textbook example on how to complete screw it up by building up false hope after the initial there is a potential problem statement has been issued.
NERVTAG reported between Wednesday and Saturday.
When the facts change you change your mind. All you are doing is emphasising how rapidly and agily Boris was able to pivot and adjust to the post-NERVTAG new reality. Kudos Boris, well done.
That would be fine had the report come completely out of the blue. It did not. Again, the government knew there was a super strain tearing through the south east. They needed to know how much worse it was but knew it was worse.
Standing there saying it would be inhuman to cancel Christmas whilst knowing this is almost as stupid as defending it this morning on here.
FTP - I think @Nigelb posted a good article from a scientific magazine last night.
My takeaways:
(1) This virus probably is more contagious but probably not as much as it first looks (first results from raw data are often deceptive) (2) It does mutate fast (once or twice a month, in fact) but we have labs here constantly tracking it and working on that (3) It's probably out in the world already (4) Ending social interactions and having complete physical barriers will stop its spread - even if the R is 100.
So, if we do have a new lockdown it will still be effective it's just there will be different rules. Like 5m spacing. Masks on inside and outside. Full PPE for staff. Far fewer in shops etc.
To add to that is the unknown virulence of this mutated strain. I think I`m correct in saying that the jury is still out on this, though there is expectation in some quarters that that the mutation will prove less virulent that the original. Anyone been following this?
I think mutations towards higher transmissibility also resulting in lower virulence has been observed as a general tendency, but that doesn't mean that it always applies to individual mutations. It's quite possible to get worse in both respects.
But unlikely. Covid - or its strapping offspring - is doing a pretty brilliant job of its one and only task: infecting every human on earth.
What would it gain (yes, I know it isn’t actually sentient) from becoming nastier and killing more hosts, thus reducing its ability to spread? Corpses don’t generally infect other people. And if it becomes more lethal humans will go into ultimate lockdown, which is also a setback for the bug.
I am not a virologist but the evolutionary pressure on a virus like this is not to become nastier.
Or so I hope, up here in Suffolk
One of the key features of Covid has been that people are infectious in the presymptomatic phase. So if a lot of transmission occurs before someone has symptoms then it matters less to the survival of the virus if the symptoms subsequently developed are fatal to the host.
Matters less, but still matters quite a lot. AIUI 60-70% of transmissions are from symptomatic sufferers
Oh I see Casino_Royale is back to his condescending posting style, I'll wait until he's left the building
I see the PB Uber Tories have dusted themselves down after the shock of Saturday evening. Clearly they have decided the best form of defence is attack.
What happened on Saturday? Were they all hoping that Jamie would win Strictly?
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
If you can't see why Wednesday's attitude is a problem then I can't help you. However, were someone to try and pull that trick on a client, I would be asking them to explain what evidence they had on Wednesday to justify their attitude that day and considering whether to keep them in that role.
PMQs is Punch and Judy. Always has been. Starmer stokes that by going on the attack every week and Boris feeds into it too. C'est la vie, why get hung up on Punch and Judy gibberish from either side?
The science changed on Thursday. They immediately acted. When the facts change you need to change your mind, he did and acted quickly.
Boris on Wednesday - Christmas is fine Starmer is lying
Boris on Saturday - Christmas is off and it's off in ways you can't imagine 30 seconds earlier.
The fact it's punch and Judy means there are times you should be more careful in what you say and Wednesday was one of those days.
The Government went from possibility of an issue, to nothing to worry about and then to it's Cancelled in under a week.
And it's the middle bit there that is a problem as it wasn't necessary it was there to score points and it rather backfired.
Half my life is spent doing expectation management and Boris last week is a textbook example on how to complete screw it up by building up false hope after the initial there is a potential problem statement has been issued.
NERVTAG reported between Wednesday and Saturday.
When the facts change you change your mind. All you are doing is emphasising how rapidly and agily Boris was able to pivot and adjust to the post-NERVTAG new reality. Kudos Boris, well done.
I've got no problem with the tier 4 or with other countries closing their borders to the UK temporarily. My issue is why the government doesn't already have a test on entry and exit system in place, why don't we already test every single person who enters and exits the country and prevent those who test positive from doing so? What exactly is the benefit of maintaining a basically completely open border at this time?
Shapps and Boris have been getting this wrong for almost a year now. It's completely destroyed any chance we had of returning to normality by the end of the year as Boris set out in the summer.
I think what this exposes most is the government's naivete on vaccine passports and the vaccine scheduling. Key workers, including those in freight who are very likely to go overseas and NHS staff, should have been first in the queue and they should all get a valid photo ID two weeks after their second jab to say they've had it.
I've been banging on about this for months, there's no point in saving all the old people if there's no economy left to function afterwards. Our vaccine strategy is completely wrong and now with this new mutation we've been caught out again.
For months we should have been testing every single person who entered and left the UK and prevented people who test positive from doing so, the complete failure of the government to do this is why the whole world is closing the border to us including shipping and freight.
If we had a working test on exit solution it's unlikely that any of these measures from other countries would continue beyond a day or two. Now the government needs to scramble one together at the ports to reopen freight and shipping and hope that France etc... think it's enough.
This government has failed to meet every single challenge thrown up by the virus. We're now paying the price for it. It's not been an easy situation but frankly amateurs on PB have had a better crisis than every single minister. It hasn't been an impossible task as some are pretending.
BiB - Isn't there a big problem that many (most?) of the hauliers crossing the channel are foreigners?
I think what this exposes most is the government's naivete on vaccine passports and the vaccine scheduling. Key workers, including those in freight who are very likely to go overseas and NHS staff, should have been first in the queue and they should all get a valid photo ID two weeks after their second jab to say they've had it.
I've been banging on about this for months, there's no point in saving all the old people if there's no economy left to function afterwards. Our vaccine strategy is completely wrong and now with this new mutation we've been caught out again.
For months we should have been testing every single person who entered and left the UK and prevented people who test positive from doing so, the complete failure of the government to do this is why the whole world is closing the border to us including shipping and freight.
If we had a working test on exit solution it's unlikely that any of these measures from other countries would continue beyond a day or two. Now the government needs to scramble one together at the ports to reopen freight and shipping and hope that France etc... think it's enough.
This government has failed to meet every single challenge thrown up by the virus. We're now paying the price for it. It's not been an easy situation but frankly amateurs on PB have had a better crisis than every single minister. It hasn't been an impossible task as some are pretending.
I have to agree. Without trying to minimise the difficulty of what was thrown at the government, I am absolutely certain that a MaxPB PM would have done a great deal better. (And that is not me being ironic.)
To everyone suggesting Bojo is not up to the job - and I agree his upbeat personality is a bad fit with Black Death - they also need to suggest their desired alternative.
Quite frankly, we aren’t blessed with gritty, ballsy, smart, capable, determined, inspiring and unflinching leaders.
The best I can come up with is Jeremy Hunt, which says it all.
I think what this exposes most is the government's naivete on vaccine passports and the vaccine scheduling. Key workers, including those in freight who are very likely to go overseas and NHS staff, should have been first in the queue and they should all get a valid photo ID two weeks after their second jab to say they've had it.
I've been banging on about this for months, there's no point in saving all the old people if there's no economy left to function afterwards. Our vaccine strategy is completely wrong and now with this new mutation we've been caught out again.
For months we should have been testing every single person who entered and left the UK and prevented people who test positive from doing so, the complete failure of the government to do this is why the whole world is closing the border to us including shipping and freight.
If we had a working test on exit solution it's unlikely that any of these measures from other countries would continue beyond a day or two. Now the government needs to scramble one together at the ports to reopen freight and shipping and hope that France etc... think it's enough.
This government has failed to meet every single challenge thrown up by the virus. We're now paying the price for it. It's not been an easy situation but frankly amateurs on PB have had a better crisis than every single minister. It hasn't been an impossible task as some are pretending.
BiB - Isn't there a big problem that many (most?) of the hauliers crossing the channel are foreigners?
Which why we also need a test on entry/exit. That we're still not seeing any government action on it is ridiculous. I can't wait until the party dumps Boris and basically this whole cabinet except Rishi and Liz.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
If you can't see why Wednesday's attitude is a problem then I can't help you. However, were someone to try and pull that trick on a client, I would be asking them to explain what evidence they had on Wednesday to justify their attitude that day and considering whether to keep them in that role.
PMQs is Punch and Judy. Always has been. Starmer stokes that by going on the attack every week and Boris feeds into it too. C'est la vie, why get hung up on Punch and Judy gibberish from either side?
The science changed on Thursday. They immediately acted. When the facts change you need to change your mind, he did and acted quickly.
Boris on Wednesday - Christmas is fine Starmer is lying
Boris on Saturday - Christmas is off and it's off in ways you can't imagine 30 seconds earlier.
The fact it's punch and Judy means there are times you should be more careful in what you say and Wednesday was one of those days.
The Government went from possibility of an issue, to nothing to worry about and then to it's Cancelled in under a week.
And it's the middle bit there that is a problem as it wasn't necessary it was there to score points and it rather backfired.
Half my life is spent doing expectation management and Boris last week is a textbook example on how to complete screw it up by building up false hope after the initial there is a potential problem statement has been issued.
NERVTAG reported between Wednesday and Saturday.
When the facts change you change your mind. All you are doing is emphasising how rapidly and agily Boris was able to pivot and adjust to the post-NERVTAG new reality. Kudos Boris, well done.
You are missing the point - we knew there was a problem on Monday - the only thing we didn't know was the scale of it.
When the facts change you change your mind
There are no facts. The 70% quicker transmission of the disease is not a fact. It is still a hypothesis. The strength of the new strain is also completely unknown and will be for weeks.
Minds are being changed on shrill hypotheses from a body that has a track record of form in shrill hypotheses.
Shapps has presided over one of the UK's most egregious COVID policy failures - its complete failure to mount any sort of effective border control/quarantine.
On R4 this a.m. he told of a wedding party after which one attendee was diagnosed with CV-19 on attending hospital for another matter, then all 11 were contacted and each tested positive. But all were entirely symptom free. It was implied they had caught the new variant. It's an anecdote but the following occurred to me: the new more contagious(?) strain is out-competing the earlier strains; but if it leaves many hosts symptom-free perhaps it is less harmful; this may be a beneficial evolution for the virus; and for humans it may appear like an inverse form of Gresham's Law ("bad money drives out good"), namely faster but milder virus drives out slower but stronger virus. Nature thus delivering a kind of natural immunisation programme. Probably nonsense but I am a glass half-full person.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
If you can't see why Wednesday's attitude is a problem then I can't help you. However, were someone to try and pull that trick on a client, I would be asking them to explain what evidence they had on Wednesday to justify their attitude that day and considering whether to keep them in that role.
PMQs is Punch and Judy. Always has been. Starmer stokes that by going on the attack every week and Boris feeds into it too. C'est la vie, why get hung up on Punch and Judy gibberish from either side?
The science changed on Thursday. They immediately acted. When the facts change you need to change your mind, he did and acted quickly.
Boris on Wednesday - Christmas is fine Starmer is lying
Boris on Saturday - Christmas is off and it's off in ways you can't imagine 30 seconds earlier.
The fact it's punch and Judy means there are times you should be more careful in what you say and Wednesday was one of those days.
The Government went from possibility of an issue, to nothing to worry about and then to it's Cancelled in under a week.
And it's the middle bit there that is a problem as it wasn't necessary it was there to score points and it rather backfired.
Half my life is spent doing expectation management and Boris last week is a textbook example on how to complete screw it up by building up false hope after the initial there is a potential problem statement has been issued.
NERVTAG reported between Wednesday and Saturday.
When the facts change you change your mind. All you are doing is emphasising how rapidly and agily Boris was able to pivot and adjust to the post-NERVTAG new reality. Kudos Boris, well done.
I've got no problem with the tier 4 or with other countries closing their borders to the UK temporarily. My issue is why the government doesn't already have a test on entry and exit system in place, why don't we already test every single person who enters and exits the country and prevent those who test positive from doing so? What exactly is the benefit of maintaining a basically completely open border at this time?
Shapps and Boris have been getting this wrong for almost a year now. It's completely destroyed any chance we had of returning to normality by the end of the year as Boris set out in the summer.
I agree we should have testing at the border. Surely a half hour Lateral Flow Test could be administered at Dover/Calais before crossing and the results would be known before reaching the other side.
But in general allowing hauliers to get through makes sense. Hauliers tend to be less of a risk than booze cruisers.
Reading the NERVTAG comments, they are....er.....'moderately confident' the strain is up to 70% quicker in transmission.
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
On topic of course today's headlines are going to be poor for Boris and he undoubtedly is not the politician for this crisis.
I doubt Starmer or May would have been any better though I would think that Hunt would be
However, the talk of replacing Boris in reality is hope over expectation unless he resigns and I see very little likelihood of that happening
The news that the impasse on HGVs is on the way to being resolved is good news
The European markets have slumped and more than the UK due to the expectation the mutant virus is across Europe, so lots to worry policymakers today
Neither Starmer or May would have spent Wednesday's PMQs joking about things that then became true 3 days later.
Both would have enough sense to see that that could play out very badly.
Prior to the NERVTAG report that changed everything.
And the PMQs hasn't changed anything. You love to bang on about it but it makes no difference. If Starmer is going to spend every damn PMQs trying to score points off Boris then inevitably Boris is going to respond. It is the Punch and Judy nature of PMQs that always happens.
If NERVTAG is so important I will refer you to the fact the new mutation was explicitly referenced on Monday as London was sent (outside of normal timetable) into tier 3.
That only shows that the issue was known to be very serious.
Serious enough to justify Tier 3 yes.
Not known to be serious enough to justify Tier 4 and worldwide panic.
Probably because the world saw things as:-
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Because NERVTAG reported on Thursday afternoon yes.
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
If you can't see why Wednesday's attitude is a problem then I can't help you. However, were someone to try and pull that trick on a client, I would be asking them to explain what evidence they had on Wednesday to justify their attitude that day and considering whether to keep them in that role.
PMQs is Punch and Judy. Always has been. Starmer stokes that by going on the attack every week and Boris feeds into it too. C'est la vie, why get hung up on Punch and Judy gibberish from either side?
The science changed on Thursday. They immediately acted. When the facts change you need to change your mind, he did and acted quickly.
Boris on Wednesday - Christmas is fine Starmer is lying
Boris on Saturday - Christmas is off and it's off in ways you can't imagine 30 seconds earlier.
The fact it's punch and Judy means there are times you should be more careful in what you say and Wednesday was one of those days.
The Government went from possibility of an issue, to nothing to worry about and then to it's Cancelled in under a week.
And it's the middle bit there that is a problem as it wasn't necessary it was there to score points and it rather backfired.
Half my life is spent doing expectation management and Boris last week is a textbook example on how to complete screw it up by building up false hope after the initial there is a potential problem statement has been issued.
NERVTAG reported between Wednesday and Saturday.
When the facts change you change your mind. All you are doing is emphasising how rapidly and agily Boris was able to pivot and adjust to the post-NERVTAG new reality. Kudos Boris, well done.
You are missing the point - we knew there was a problem on Monday - the only thing we didn't know was the scale of it.
When the facts change you change your mind
There are no facts. The 70% quicker transmission of the disease is not a fact. It is still a hypothesis. The strength of the new strain is also completely unknown and will be for weeks.
Minds are being changed on shrill hypotheses from a body that has a track record of form in shrill hypotheses.
Comments
But the UK still hasn't had the grown up conversation with itself about the advantages and disadvantages of the 1990-2020 setup compared with alternatives. Or how to help the losers from that setup.
If we're honest, we don't have a workable alternative understood for... eleven days time, just a hope that the market will provide. And while the market can unlock remarkable things, some things are just impossible.
Sometimes timing is all you need to have one issue affect another.
There's no evidence at all either way, AFAIK.
There's been a lot of chat about how viruses mutate to become less virulent, but I think that mainly wishful thinking. There's zero evidence of a virus with a 1% or thereabouts fatality rate doing so on the timescales we're talking about.
Monday - there is a problem but we are working on resolving it.
Wednesday - we've fixed the issue
Thursday - standard tidying up.
Saturday - PANIC..
That's not a good look for any Government and you have to remember that for a lot of the South East it went Friday Tier 2, Saturday Tier 3, Sunday Brand new Tier 4 with zero real notice.
Btw, I couldn't open the instagram pic of your dog but will try again later. I am sure it is cute!
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/C75149/2020-12-21/detailed
Rightly or wrongly I do not expect Boris to ask for an actual extension
But don't let actual facts get in the way with your pointscoring agenda. I'm sure there's enough gullible fools to believe NERVTAG are engaged in this conspiracy you are inventing.
Maybe they really are SCEPTRE. Maybe they invented it. You might be on to something - does Boris own a cat?
The story of this week is the clown's fondness for playing politics, and for avoiding confrontation with his own MPs. So making fun of Starmer on Wednesday and avoiding any parliamentary scrutiny on Thursday made waiting until the end of the week the preferred time to change direction.
The bigger question is why on earth we didn't continue the semi-lockdown through the first few weeks of December? - as many of us suggested and expected back in November - thus maximising the chance that we'd be able to spend Christmas with our families. What we've done is arrange things so that the peak risk period has dropped right into the middle of the holidays, depriving many people of a chance to see their friends and relatives; something that had been sustaining them through the dark days of autumn and winter. That's the real stupidity. We know the 'new' strain has been around since Sept/Oct yet the November infection rates were falling almost everywhere (except, notably, London in mid-November, which was when London 'went bad').
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
"There are no delays to shipping in Brexitland"
Belgium (1).
Swings and roundabouts. There's no reason to put some phallic symbolism in the exchange rate as a form of strength or manliness.
Your argument is that Johnson knew literally nothing and could not foresee any circumstance where the plans for Christmas might need to be changed. Which as we both know isn't the case. So why are you once again parroting patent bollox?
What would it gain (yes, I know it isn’t actually sentient) from becoming nastier and killing more hosts, thus reducing its ability to spread? Corpses don’t generally infect other people. And if it becomes more lethal humans will go into ultimate lockdown, which is also a setback for the bug.
I am not a virologist but the evolutionary pressure on a virus like this is not to become nastier.
Or so I hope, up here in Suffolk
Thursday is after Wednesday.
And they know that Johnson is a very weak man, happy to sacrifice those who can hurt him least on any given day.
In this case the ordinary people of Britain.
Its the others falling for it that is surprising.
Belgian Flu 2 it is
The science changed on Thursday. They immediately acted. When the facts change you need to change your mind, he did and acted quickly.
Not likely, from what I can understand, but something they will be desperate to get data on asap - and even more so on whether or not it can evade the vaccine induced immunity.
Given the new variant can fairly readily be detected through our existing PCR testing (as it fails one of the confirmatory tests), it can be tracked pretty well, so we ought to know one way or the other fairly soon.
On the other hand it doesn't mean he wouldn't be better, just that being opposition leader is a poor measure.
They knew it was bad. They said it was bad. The NERVTAG report was to confirm how bad. So what kind of pillock says cancelling Christmas would be inhuman whilst waiting for the confirmation that you need to cancel Christmas?
I would link, but I’ve forgotten who it was. A surfeit of info confuses
If you've had your arm chopped off I guess surgery is pointless, just let the patient die instead
https://twitter.com/simon4ndorset/status/1340944973752119298?s=21
Boris on Saturday - Christmas is off and it's off in ways you can't imagine 30 seconds earlier.
The fact it's punch and Judy means there are times you should be more careful in what you say and Wednesday was one of those days.
The Government went from possibility of an issue, to nothing to worry about and then to it's Cancelled in under a week.
And it's the middle bit there that is a problem as it wasn't necessary it was there to score points and it rather backfired.
Half my life is spent doing expectation management and Boris last week is a textbook example on how to complete screw it up by building up false hope after the initial there is a potential problem statement has been issued.
A wider question is why Brexit negotiations concentrated on goods, where we do have a thumping great deficit and not services. That's another cunning EU trap we blundered into.
I've been banging on about this for months, there's no point in saving all the old people if there's no economy left to function afterwards. Our vaccine strategy is completely wrong and now with this new mutation we've been caught out again.
For months we should have been testing every single person who entered and left the UK and prevented people who test positive from doing so, the complete failure of the government to do this is why the whole world is closing the border to us including shipping and freight.
If we had a working test on exit solution it's unlikely that any of these measures from other countries would continue beyond a day or two. Now the government needs to scramble one together at the ports to reopen freight and shipping and hope that France etc... think it's enough.
This government has failed to meet every single challenge thrown up by the virus. We're now paying the price for it. It's not been an easy situation but frankly amateurs on PB have had a better crisis than every single minister. It hasn't been an impossible task as some are pretending.
When the facts change you change your mind. All you are doing is emphasising how rapidly and agily Boris was able to pivot and adjust to the post-NERVTAG new reality. Kudos Boris, well done.
If its right we're frozen out of world travel for months
If its wrong, well, the tories are the party that destroyed Christmas for nothing.
We still don't know of course! its just supposition!
How exciting!
Standing there saying it would be inhuman to cancel Christmas whilst knowing this is almost as stupid as defending it this morning on here.
Shapps and Boris have been getting this wrong for almost a year now. It's completely destroyed any chance we had of returning to normality by the end of the year as Boris set out in the summer.
Without trying to minimise the difficulty of what was thrown at the government, I am absolutely certain that a MaxPB PM would have done a great deal better. (And that is not me being ironic.)
Good. Allow haulage but nothing else, that would be perfect. Haulage is necessary trade, holiday makers can stay at home.
There are no facts. The 70% quicker transmission of the disease is not a fact. It is still a hypothesis. The strength of the new strain is also completely unknown and will be for weeks.
Minds are being changed on shrill hypotheses from a body that has a track record of form in shrill hypotheses.
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/C75152/2020-12-21/detailed
But the Amsterdam train didn't run this morning:
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/C75090/2020-12-21/detailed
It's an anecdote but the following occurred to me: the new more contagious(?) strain is out-competing the earlier strains; but if it leaves many hosts symptom-free perhaps it is less harmful; this may be a beneficial evolution for the virus; and for humans it may appear like an inverse form of Gresham's Law ("bad money drives out good"), namely faster but milder virus drives out slower but stronger virus. Nature thus delivering a kind of natural immunisation programme.
Probably nonsense but I am a glass half-full person.
But in general allowing hauliers to get through makes sense. Hauliers tend to be less of a risk than booze cruisers.
It is a hypothesis based on facts.