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After the weekend’s dramatic Boris U-turn the papers are not good for the PM this morning – politica
After the weekend’s dramatic Boris U-turn the papers are not good for the PM this morning – politicalbetting.com
Former PM speech writer and top aide @ClareFoges in powerful attack on Johnson's approach to the pandemic in the Timeshttps://t.co/zS8cCiRDfR pic.twitter.com/NlfhQhWP6K
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I'm generally cautious about posting up his statements, and they should perhaps come with a health warning, to coin a phrase, as the virus-sceptic press keeps holding them up as gospel ; but this interests me.
"Carl Heneghan, Professor of Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford University's Nuffield Department of Primary Care, expressed scepticism over the 70 per cent greater transmissibility figure.
He said: 'I've been doing this job for 25 years and I can tell you can't establish a quantifiable number in such a short time frame.'
He added 'every expert is saying it's too early to draw such an inference'.
Professor Heneghan said there was no doubt this time of the year, the 'height of the viral season', was a difficult time for the NHS. But he said failure to put out the basis of the figures was undermining public trust.
He added: 'I would want to have very clear evidence rather than 'we think it's more transmissible' so we can see if it is or not.
'It has massive implications. It's causing fear and panic, but we should not be in this situation when the Government is putting out data that is unquantifiable.'
Of course sometimes (e.g. with Labour after the ERM debacle in 1992 and the Conservatives after the 2008 financial crisis) that doesn't matter. But people would be unwise to bet too heavily on that.
Starmer is clearly not a Blair-type political genius. Whether he's a Cameron-style competent, or a Kinnock-type also-ran, I guess we'll see.
The border closures outside New South Wales (NSW) have dashed Christmas plans and family reunions for many people.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-55390731
Although you do wonder how many of these “shutting the stable door” countries already have the variant, just aren’t doing the genomic testing to identify it.
An extraordinary isolationist juxtaposition of Brexit and mutant virus.
So "every expert is saying it's too early to draw such an inference'. Well, every expert except those advising the Government. The alternative is Heneghan would have us wait a few more weeks, when he can safely say "As you were. Yep, it is now the right time to draw that inference. Sorry, NHS...."
Boris's every instinct is to allow people the chance to have the most freedom they can over Christmas. There's a whole body of evidence of that, which the Boris haters have been dredging up from months back. That he has declared a Tier 4 which cuts across that is therefore not consistent the action of somebody who will take chances, that will wing it to be adored.
Our Prime Minister has received reports from the scientists tasked with modelling this new variant. Those reports have reasonably-based worst case scenarios which say "Leave this variant to go at its own pace - and the NHS will crash, early in the New Year." So hands up, who's with Heneghan's wait and see if the worst case scenario comes about?
Not that it matters. The PM has taken decisive action to head off those reasonably-based worst case scenarios. And the polling says the people are largely fine with that. Even if it screws up their Christmas plans. Sorry, Boris haters....
“Action this day” was one of the regular memo responses by Churchill when faced with a difficult decision. He had a few to make and, although he didn’t get them all right, he could rarely be accused of dithering, delaying and avoiding the tough calls as Johnson has, repeatedly, since he took office.
https://twitter.com/iamgkadam/status/1340867792598228992?s=21
https://twitter.com/iamgkadam/status/1340871626703785984?s=21
OTOH, scientists are deeply averse to jumping to conclusions (and rightly so)... but it took (for instance) many of them an awfully long time to accept the strong possibility that masks might be effective, until it was demonstrated nearly beyond doubt.
It's curious that the rest of the world was caught on the hop. You'd think they'd have been monitoring this sort of thing irrespective of UK Christmas plans. Presumably they all knew about this weeks ago, odd that it needed our scientists to be worried for them to also be worried. Almost as though they don't know what they are doing...
Similar considerations apply to the new South African variant, and the rest of Africa.
And, as I pointed out at the time, that's because it's virtually impossible to conduct a double-blind trial of mask wearing efficacy. Double-blind trials are their go-to benchmark. To many grounded people it was bleeding obvious that a respiratory virus would be less transmisable if parties are wearing face masks. As most people in Asia knew from experience of SARS.
The raw stats of exponentially rising infection rates are a pretty good indication that this mutant form is spreading bloody quickly. Which is kind-of all we need to know.
Whether or not this latest travel ban is bolting the stable door on this particular strain, there will be other mutations that might spread easier and/or be more deadly and/or be not prevented by the vaccines we already have.
Countries like Taiwan, New Zealand etc were successful because they pretty much blocked ALL incoming travel.
“In summary, NERVTAG has moderate confidence that VUI-202012/01 demonstrates a substantial increase in transmissibility compared to other variants.”
Can anyone define in precise terms “moderate confidence” ? An awful lot is now kicking off in response to those two words.
To be honest, I'm actually delighted that the world has started banning travel - I want us to ban travel! It's just the French that have decided to use it as an excuse to be utterly cuntish.
And actually we could have done with some international panic back in January. Unfortunately, the Europeans are kidding themselves if they think it's just us.
Or alternatively, more likely than not.
The problem is that we enjoyed the Summer too much and now we're paying the price.
The whole country could die of Covid and he'd be all like "it is too early to draw conclusions..."
Not that closing air travel isn't the right thing to do though.
FPT: Mr. JohnL, always back Hamilton?
At the penultimate race of the season I had a 61 winning tip on Perez to win
Almost like a government that isn't stopping to think about the importance of its international relationships and dependencies.
The idea there are tens of thousands of cases, of Supercovid, in Kent and London, and basically zero on the continent, is prima facie nonsensical. Kent and London interact with mainland Europe more than anywhere else in the UK. It’s virtually inconceivable it hasn’t spread abroad (or, possibly, arrived here from abroad).
And it does explain the 2nd waves of countries which had it so controlled.
It might even be in Asia. See the latest surge in Korea, Thailand and so on.
It would still be a case of this new scary mutant variant is definitely in the UK and unknown whether in their country.
Every politician can either close the border with the UK, even if it's too late, and still see it spread ... Or they can keep the border open, see it spread, then get blame from voters saying why did you not close the border?
The precautionary principle is to close the border either way. Nothing Boris did or did not say changes that.
BoZo announced it on Friday.
Which part of that is not a U-turn?
https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/1340834374258814976?s=21
So it is very definitely in France, Holland, Germany...
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/83151/2020-12-21/detailed
Quite frankly, we aren’t blessed with gritty, ballsy, smart, capable, determined, inspiring and unflinching leaders.
The best I can come up with is Jeremy Hunt, which says it all.
The implications if the 70% figure were right would be terrifying. If it's 40% it will be extremely bad, but may be just about possible to handle with a full lockdown as in the Spring. I don't think any scientist in his/her right mind is suggesting the slightest degree of complacency about this.
I don't know whether this has been posted here, but the 70% figure apparently comes from the work presented in the video at 2h45m:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3CT9N89L-c
The person presenting it says “it’s really too early to tell”, comments that the model is not a good fit, and seems to place no reliance on the actual number that comes out of it, but is in no doubt that the new variant is growing very quickly.
The figures for the change in its prevalence in London alone seem more consistent with 40%.
That said I can see why the French govt did this and I don’t think it’s that devious or evil. If a terrifying new strain of the Pest was identified in France the British public would clamour for the channel ports to be closed, in just the same way.
It’s fruitless tho. If the science is even half right Hard New Bastard Covid is already in the EU and will inexorably spread
It would not change any facts on the ground. They know for a fact we have this.
The EU procedures are of the finger in the dyke variety. (No jokes please!)
This lot were chosen precisely because they wouldn't show that kind of leadership and good sense.
My guess, based on the information provided, is that we are somewhere near half way what the death toll is going to be from this pernicious virus before vaccination gives enough of us protection. January will almost certainly be the worst month yet.
I feel sorry for Boris (unlike many here), but he has also been the author of his own misfortune.
It doesn't matter if they probably have it or not, they might not while we DEFINITELY do.
If we followed his advise over the course of the pandemic thousands more would be dead. He disguises his Covid denial behind "not yet certain" weasel words.
This lot were chosen because they wouldn't show ANY kind of leadership or good sense.
Which is why, when Boris waves the white flag, they won't stand up either for the ERG or whatever they're called this week.
They'll meekly queue up for electoral slaughter.
The real question is whether that'll be in May, or whether some Tory PM will bottle it this spring, then have no choice once the locals have declared.
And to those still believing the vaccine will save the Tories: that's what Churchill thought in early 1945.
Germany was in part successful in the Spring because they rapidly abandoned Schengen and shut their borders.
So no shock the same is happening now. It isn't a Brexit or Schengen issue.
We focus on BoZo because he is the one fucking it up.
Every time.