Just looking through some national infection rate curves across the world, I'd guess that this new strain is now present in the UK, Germany, the US and the Netherlands in detectable quantities which means it will be in the rest of Europe too by now.
Whatever vaccine plans Europe has got need to be doubled and then doubled agan. An R increase of 0.4 within current measures is just going to hammer the economy everywhere.
Honestly I can't see how the rest of the world copes with this, we're relatively well placed with our vaccine portfolio and deliveries. It's on us to get it out there. Lots of the rest of the world doesn't even have enough to cover their population or delivery in 2021, many will be waiting until 2022.
I'll recant on my original position of cancelling the aid budget and say the whole thing should be redirected to procuring and rolling the vaccine out across the world. We can't let this hide anywhere, mutate and then come back.
It's a no-brainer usage of the aid budget, which is why it won't happen.
People packing their bags and fleeing like this ain't gonna help, but I suspect that the new variant will get everywhere before very long, anyway. Actually, it probably is everywhere already - just not in so large a number. Locking down is about slowing the progress of this thing, it won't completely suppress it.
Anyway, we fall just into Hertfordshire (the South Cambs border is less than a mile up the road) so we're going to be incarcerated until at least Easter. I'm not sure that many of the local businesses are going to survive that long, but my opinion on this is well documented by now: I just want to get myself and my clinically extremely vulnerable other half through this in one piece, so I'm glad that this has happened, even though the whole Winter is now going to be one long, tense, anxious, depressing and very, very boring slog.
Now we just need the Government to relent on its stubbornness over the schools and shut them down as well.
I might be taking advantage of the option for private prayer in the next few days, for the first time in a long time.
There might be many on this site who'll mock me for this - but I feel rather empty about missing out on carols and a Christmas service.
It really moves me this time of year.
I realised on reading this that I haven't heard a single Christmas pop song this year. I consider this as something of a blessing as I'm usually fed up with them the day they start being played, but I do love some of the carols. I've had King's College Cambridge carols from youtube on since. Definitely feeling a little more festive 🎅
So that extra item they ordered us to take to prepare for it is, ummm, for what exactly?
Honestly, we’ve had four different policies in three days. My head is spinning.
I think Starmer (and Green) is missing an opportunity here; I'm disappointed that he hasn't gone for an all out attack on Williamson, Gibbs and the government on a range of education issues. The threatened legal action against Greenwich and Islington (and the hypocrisy of Eton closing a week early); the chaotic approach generally to infections in schools; this testing business; the impending exams fiasco mark 2 come May; and many others that you could relate.
If he's worried about being associated with 'militant' unions, he can avoid this by using headteachers as cover: "this is what headteachers are telling me......". I think Labour is missing some open goals. A pity.
But the same argument as last spring holds ; many of these businesses haven't even failed on capitalism's own terms, but because of government action, however unavoidable that may be. That means that if even one accepts this market ideologist approach in principle, which I personally don't at all, one has to admit that many, if not all, these businesses have not failed its own test without external factors.
Perhaps my wording was clumsy. I'm not suggesting many of these businesses failed or might fail because they were badly run (some undoubtedly were). The fact is, however, unless we try to save them all (both the well run and the poorly run), some will go under. That's tragic, no question but the nature of the beast is even well-run organisations fail if a key part of their business model changes.
That's not to denigrate the impact of Covid but simply to point out businesses fail all the time, new ones are set up, new entrepreneurs come through and replace those who couldn't make it. It's brutal.
Just looking through some national infection rate curves across the world, I'd guess that this new strain is now present in the UK, Germany, the US and the Netherlands in detectable quantities which means it will be in the rest of Europe too by now.
Whatever vaccine plans Europe has got need to be doubled and then doubled agan. An R increase of 0.4 within current measures is just going to hammer the economy everywhere.
Honestly I can't see how the rest of the world copes with this, we're relatively well placed with our vaccine portfolio and deliveries. It's on us to get it out there. Lots of the rest of the world doesn't even have enough to cover their population or delivery in 2021, many will be waiting until 2022.
I'll recant on my original position of cancelling the aid budget and say the whole thing should be redirected to procuring and rolling the vaccine out across the world. We can't let this hide anywhere, mutate and then come back.
We are already spending a massive amount of the aid budget on exactly that
I have decided that anyone trotting out the "clown" meme is wrong, as they are obviously doing that as an alternative to thinking. The same goes for "Bozo".
What about calling him "Boris" as opposed to Johnson?
Personally I think that's fairly neutral, used by both his supporters and detractors. So not being used as an alternative to thinking.
I have decided that anyone trotting out the "clown" meme is wrong, as they are obviously doing that as an alternative to thinking. The same goes for "Bozo".
What about calling him "Boris" as opposed to Johnson?
Personally I think that's fairly neutral, used by both his supporters and detractors. So not being used as an alternative to thinking.
It's evident a lot of his supporters don't do much thinking, see some of them here for examples.
I'll call him Boris when people call Starmer, Keir.
I have decided that anyone trotting out the "clown" meme is wrong, as they are obviously doing that as an alternative to thinking. The same goes for "Bozo".
What about calling him "Boris" as opposed to Johnson?
Personally I think that's fairly neutral, used by both his supporters and detractors. So not being used as an alternative to thinking.
It's evident a lot of his supporters don't do much thinking, see some of them here for examples.
I'll call him Boris when people call Starmer, Keir.
I have decided that anyone trotting out the "clown" meme is wrong, as they are obviously doing that as an alternative to thinking. The same goes for "Bozo".
What about calling him "Boris" as opposed to Johnson?
Personally I think that's fairly neutral, used by both his supporters and detractors. So not being used as an alternative to thinking.
It's evident a lot of his supporters don't do much thinking, see some of them here for examples.
I'll call him Boris when people call Starmer, Keir.
I'll call him Kier, you can call him Biros
I would have thought you'd be a stickler for spelling, with all the times you've called me out. Must be a slow day for you today.
I have decided that anyone trotting out the "clown" meme is wrong, as they are obviously doing that as an alternative to thinking. The same goes for "Bozo".
What about calling him "Boris" as opposed to Johnson?
Personally I think that's fairly neutral, used by both his supporters and detractors. So not being used as an alternative to thinking.
It's evident a lot of his supporters don't do much thinking, see some of them here for examples.
I'll call him Boris when people call Starmer, Keir.
I'll call him Kier, you can call him Biros
The knighthood muddies the waters, since it's often Sir [first name].
So that extra item they ordered us to take to prepare for it is, ummm, for what exactly?
Honestly, we’ve had four different policies in three days. My head is spinning.
I think Starmer (and Green) is missing an opportunity here; I'm disappointed that he hasn't gone for an all out attack on Williamson, Gibbs and the government on a range of education issues. The threatened legal action against Greenwich and Islington (and the hypocrisy of Eton closing a week early); the chaotic approach generally to infections in schools; this testing business; the impending exams fiasco mark 2 come May; and many others that you could relate.
If he's worried about being associated with 'militant' unions, he can avoid this by using headteachers as cover: "this is what headteachers are telling me......". I think Labour is missing some open goals. A pity.
I have decided that anyone trotting out the "clown" meme is wrong, as they are obviously doing that as an alternative to thinking. The same goes for "Bozo".
What about calling him "Boris" as opposed to Johnson?
Personally I think that's fairly neutral, used by both his supporters and detractors. So not being used as an alternative to thinking.
It's evident a lot of his supporters don't do much thinking, see some of them here for examples.
I'll call him Boris when people call Starmer, Keir.
Meanwhile, just about the only part of England in Tier 1 (for the next five minutes, anyway) is disappearing underwater.
2020 just keeps on giving - and there are still twelve days to go. What do we think's coming before January 1st 2021 folks? An asteroid strike, an alien invasion or a nuclear holocaust?
I never understand the 'Christmas is cancelled' claims.
Will the 16m people not be on holiday, not be eating and drinking excessively, not be watching special TV programs, not be giving and getting presents.
I wonder if such terminology is used in other countries.
What happened to the Nightingale Hospitals? The one in the Principality Stadium has been torn down.
I don't think they are being used. Certainly not in England.
They would make a useful overflow facility for recovering Covid patients, we will need this in London in January.
When my wifes hospital was being swamped with covid patients they were told they could use the nearest nightingale hospital. But it is 30 miles away and they'd have to provide the staff. When they were almost 1000 down due to covid. Never a practical option.
Meanwhile, just about the only part of England in Tier 1 (for the next five minutes, anyway) is disappearing underwater.
2020 just keeps on giving - and there are still twelve days to go. What do we think's coming before January 1st 2021 folks? An asteroid strike, an alien invasion or a nuclear holocaust?
Don't forget the Great Conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn on Monday hasn't apparently taken place since 1623...the long-term outlook after it is claimed by enthusiasts to be better, though, after a period of 'adjustment'.
If No Deal f*cks up vaccine delivery the Tories will lose in 2024 and not see power again for a generation.
For No Deal to mess up vaccine delivery it would have to be a lot more than just port issues. As has already been pointed out it only takes a couple of planes a week to deliver the vaccine necessary for the campaign and both the British and Belgian governments have already said they have contingency plans in place using their combined military assets if necessary.
As of tonight Boris risks annoying the Tory right with the new Christmas lockdown and the Tory anti No Deal left by continuing not to commit to a deal with the EU, it is certainly a brave strategy from the PM
I never understand the 'Christmas is cancelled' claims.
Will the 16m people not be on holiday, not be eating and drinking excessively, not be watching special TV programs, not be giving and getting presents.
I wonder if such terminology is used in other countries.
Well, on one level it's evidently hyperbole and the newspapers printing cheap headlines. On another it's understandable. I'm 44 years old now and this will be the first Christmas I've not spent with my Dad, who lives about ten miles down the road. Though, granted, we'd already given up on it. He lives on his own but fortunately has a friend who lives locally who's also on their tod and they therefore form one of these support bubble things, so at least he won't be by himself. Many others won't be so fortunate.
It's going to be an unhappy time for a great many people, though not nearly so bad as the dark, dreadful months that stretch out on the other side of it.
My Remainer credentials are impeccable but that is an old photo. How I know? Most trees in Kent are deciduous. There’s an awful lot of foliage in that picture. And the fields are newly harvested.
Will the 16m people not be on holiday, not be eating and drinking excessively, not be watching special TV programs, not be giving and getting presents.
Food distribution is all messed up because travel plans are cancelled. I ordered a turkey for people who now can't come, but they haven't ordered food.
When all these fuckwits get off the train at Sheffield South Yorkshire Police should tell them to get straight back on the next southbound service back to London.
Even without Tier 4 they are all breaking the current rules.
Meanwhile, just about the only part of England in Tier 1 (for the next five minutes, anyway) is disappearing underwater.
2020 just keeps on giving - and there are still twelve days to go. What do we think's coming before January 1st 2021 folks? An asteroid strike, an alien invasion or a nuclear holocaust?
Don't forget the Great Conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn on Monday hasn't apparently taken place since 1623...the long-term outlook after it is claimed by enthusiasts to be better, though, after a period of 'adjustment'.
As of tonight Boris risks annoying the Tory right with the new Christmas lockdown and the Tory anti No Deal left by continuing not to commit to a deal with the EU, it is certainly a brave strategy from the PM
Johnson isn't brave and nor is this a strategy. He's like a very drunk man stumbling blindly down an uneven pavement, tripping over every crooked slab in his clueless, directionless path.
Is the second set of figures from the 600 seat parliament? I thought Johnson had shelved that idea.
Whatever the nature of the boundary changes Starmer would almost certainly become PM but only thanks to SNP confidence and supply
That way Starmer kills the Union, so he can't do that. Johnson (or Steve Baker) remains (minority) PM.
I'll be writing an article on the dire predicament Labour is in within the next few weeks.
Likely adds as much value as me writing an article about while the Tories will never win again!
Here's the problem: we've won the last four elections.
I was just pointing out, you're not exactly impartial are you? There's nothing wrong with that, I just think you talking about how Labour will never win again is like me saying the Tories are crap. It's obvious and not surprising.
Still, I will read the article and digest it, when it comes. I'm not sure you have much interest in seeing Labour win though, I will leave it at that
Will the 16m people not be on holiday, not be eating and drinking excessively, not be watching special TV programs, not be giving and getting presents.
Food distribution is all messed up because travel plans are cancelled. I ordered a turkey for people who now can't come, but they haven't ordered food.
As of tonight Boris risks annoying the Tory right with the new Christmas lockdown and the Tory anti No Deal left by continuing not to commit to a deal with the EU, it is certainly a brave strategy from the PM
Is the second set of figures from the 600 seat parliament? I thought Johnson had shelved that idea.
Whatever the nature of the boundary changes Starmer would almost certainly become PM but only thanks to SNP confidence and supply
That way Starmer kills the Union, so he can't do that. Johnson (or Steve Baker) remains (minority) PM.
I'll be writing an article on the dire predicament Labour is in within the next few weeks.
Likely adds as much value as me writing an article about while the Tories will never win again!
Here's the problem: we've won the last four elections.
And may very well win the next one, which (along with the fact that the Tories are still getting more than 10% in the opinion polls at present) is testament to the truly hopeless state of the Opposition.
I might be taking advantage of the option for private prayer in the next few days, for the first time in a long time.
There might be many on this site who'll mock me for this - but I feel rather empty about missing out on carols and a Christmas service.
It really moves me this time of year.
I realised on reading this that I haven't heard a single Christmas pop song this year. I consider this as something of a blessing as I'm usually fed up with them the day they start being played, but I do love some of the carols. I've had King's College Cambridge carols from youtube on since. Definitely feeling a little more festive 🎅
King's College Cambridge is divine.
I usually go to Winchester Cathedral around about this time of year. That is sublime.
Is the second set of figures from the 600 seat parliament? I thought Johnson had shelved that idea.
Whatever the nature of the boundary changes Starmer would almost certainly become PM but only thanks to SNP confidence and supply
That way Starmer kills the Union, so he can't do that. Johnson (or Steve Baker) remains (minority) PM.
I'll be writing an article on the dire predicament Labour is in within the next few weeks.
Likely adds as much value as me writing an article about while the Tories will never win again!
Here's the problem: we've won the last four elections.
And may very well win the next one, which (along with the fact that the Tories are still getting more than 10% in the opinion polls at present) is testament to the truly hopeless state of the Opposition.
And you may well be right - I'm not making election predictions until much closer to the time, as I do know everyone here likes to laugh at my previous ones - but Labour is undoubtedly in a better position than a year ago. And that's better than nothing.
Is the second set of figures from the 600 seat parliament? I thought Johnson had shelved that idea.
Whatever the nature of the boundary changes Starmer would almost certainly become PM but only thanks to SNP confidence and supply
That way Starmer kills the Union, so he can't do that. Johnson (or Steve Baker) remains (minority) PM.
I'll be writing an article on the dire predicament Labour is in within the next few weeks.
Likely adds as much value as me writing an article about while the Tories will never win again!
Here's the problem: we've won the last four elections.
I was just pointing out, you're not exactly impartial are you? There's nothing wrong with that, I just think you talking about how Labour will never win again is like me saying the Tories are crap. It's obvious and not surprising.
Still, I will read the article and digest it, when it comes. I'm not sure you have much interest in seeing Labour win though, I will leave it at that
What happened to the Nightingale Hospitals? The one in the Principality Stadium has been torn down.
I don't think they are being used. Certainly not in England.
They would make a useful overflow facility for recovering Covid patients, we will need this in London in January.
Perhaps we would have been better off tearing down Mark Drakeford rather than the Nightingale Hospitals!
Were they all dismantled? I had only read about the one in the stadium that was taken down.
No I think most of them are still there. The one in Birmingham was put on notice a few weeks ago to prepare for patients and the others are all still available. I believe there was some talk of using the one at Excel in London for 'normal' non Covid patients over the summer but not sure if that ever happened.
Is the second set of figures from the 600 seat parliament? I thought Johnson had shelved that idea.
Whatever the nature of the boundary changes Starmer would almost certainly become PM but only thanks to SNP confidence and supply
That way Starmer kills the Union, so he can't do that. Johnson (or Steve Baker) remains (minority) PM.
I'll be writing an article on the dire predicament Labour is in within the next few weeks.
Likely adds as much value as me writing an article about while the Tories will never win again!
Here's the problem: we've won the last four elections.
I was just pointing out, you're not exactly impartial are you? There's nothing wrong with that, I just think you talking about how Labour will never win again is like me saying the Tories are crap. It's obvious and not surprising.
Still, I will read the article and digest it, when it comes. I'm not sure you have much interest in seeing Labour win though, I will leave it at that
Wait and see.
Well I will be sure to read it when it comes but I will take it with a pinch of salt. As I am sure you do me.
Will the 16m people not be on holiday, not be eating and drinking excessively, not be watching special TV programs, not be giving and getting presents.
Food distribution is all messed up because travel plans are cancelled. I ordered a turkey for people who now can't come, but they haven't ordered food.
Will the 16m people not be on holiday, not be eating and drinking excessively, not be watching special TV programs, not be giving and getting presents.
Food distribution is all messed up because travel plans are cancelled. I ordered a turkey for people who now can't come, but they haven't ordered food.
I know I'm seen as a Labour fanboy but I do undeniably the Coalition would have handled this competently, I don't doubt Cameron would have done a good job.
Is the second set of figures from the 600 seat parliament? I thought Johnson had shelved that idea.
Whatever the nature of the boundary changes Starmer would almost certainly become PM but only thanks to SNP confidence and supply
That way Starmer kills the Union, so he can't do that. Johnson (or Steve Baker) remains (minority) PM.
I'll be writing an article on the dire predicament Labour is in within the next few weeks.
Likely adds as much value as me writing an article about while the Tories will never win again!
Here's the problem: we've won the last four elections.
I was just pointing out, you're not exactly impartial are you? There's nothing wrong with that, I just think you talking about how Labour will never win again is like me saying the Tories are crap. It's obvious and not surprising.
Still, I will read the article and digest it, when it comes. I'm not sure you have much interest in seeing Labour win though, I will leave it at that
Wait and see.
Well I will be sure to read it when it comes but I will take it with a pinch of salt. As I am sure you do me.
You shouldn't. It's in no-one's interests for the UK to be a one party state.
My Remainer credentials are impeccable but that is an old photo. How I know? Most trees in Kent are deciduous. There’s an awful lot of foliage in that picture. And the fields are newly harvested.
And most obviously, there are queues both directions
Is the second set of figures from the 600 seat parliament? I thought Johnson had shelved that idea.
Whatever the nature of the boundary changes Starmer would almost certainly become PM but only thanks to SNP confidence and supply
That way Starmer kills the Union, so he can't do that. Johnson (or Steve Baker) remains (minority) PM.
I'll be writing an article on the dire predicament Labour is in within the next few weeks.
Likely adds as much value as me writing an article about while the Tories will never win again!
Here's the problem: we've won the last four elections.
And may very well win the next one, which (along with the fact that the Tories are still getting more than 10% in the opinion polls at present) is testament to the truly hopeless state of the Opposition.
And you may well be right - I'm not making election predictions until much closer to the time, as I do know everyone here likes to laugh at my previous ones - but Labour is undoubtedly in a better position than a year ago. And that's better than nothing.
Will the 16m people not be on holiday, not be eating and drinking excessively, not be watching special TV programs, not be giving and getting presents.
Food distribution is all messed up because travel plans are cancelled. I ordered a turkey for people who now can't come, but they haven't ordered food.
Is the second set of figures from the 600 seat parliament? I thought Johnson had shelved that idea.
Whatever the nature of the boundary changes Starmer would almost certainly become PM but only thanks to SNP confidence and supply
That way Starmer kills the Union, so he can't do that. Johnson (or Steve Baker) remains (minority) PM.
I'll be writing an article on the dire predicament Labour is in within the next few weeks.
Likely adds as much value as me writing an article about while the Tories will never win again!
Here's the problem: we've won the last four elections.
I was just pointing out, you're not exactly impartial are you? There's nothing wrong with that, I just think you talking about how Labour will never win again is like me saying the Tories are crap. It's obvious and not surprising.
Still, I will read the article and digest it, when it comes. I'm not sure you have much interest in seeing Labour win though, I will leave it at that
Wait and see.
Well I will be sure to read it when it comes but I will take it with a pinch of salt. As I am sure you do me.
You shouldn't. It's in no-one's interests for the UK to be a one party state.
I take anything with a pinch of salt when it's a political opponent who is a member (?) of another party, or at least actively supports it. I don't doubt you have useful things to say.
I am sure you take things I write with a pinch of salt, it's only natural.
Is the second set of figures from the 600 seat parliament? I thought Johnson had shelved that idea.
Whatever the nature of the boundary changes Starmer would almost certainly become PM but only thanks to SNP confidence and supply
That way Starmer kills the Union, so he can't do that. Johnson (or Steve Baker) remains (minority) PM.
I'll be writing an article on the dire predicament Labour is in within the next few weeks.
Likely adds as much value as me writing an article about while the Tories will never win again!
Here's the problem: we've won the last four elections.
And may very well win the next one, which (along with the fact that the Tories are still getting more than 10% in the opinion polls at present) is testament to the truly hopeless state of the Opposition.
And you may well be right - I'm not making election predictions until much closer to the time, as I do know everyone here likes to laugh at my previous ones - but Labour is undoubtedly in a better position than a year ago. And that's better than nothing.
Comments
Anyway, we fall just into Hertfordshire (the South Cambs border is less than a mile up the road) so we're going to be incarcerated until at least Easter. I'm not sure that many of the local businesses are going to survive that long, but my opinion on this is well documented by now: I just want to get myself and my clinically extremely vulnerable other half through this in one piece, so I'm glad that this has happened, even though the whole Winter is now going to be one long, tense, anxious, depressing and very, very boring slog.
Now we just need the Government to relent on its stubbornness over the schools and shut them down as well.
They would make a useful overflow facility for recovering Covid patients, we will need this in London in January.
If he's worried about being associated with 'militant' unions, he can avoid this by using headteachers as cover: "this is what headteachers are telling me......". I think Labour is missing some open goals. A pity.
That's not to denigrate the impact of Covid but simply to point out businesses fail all the time, new ones are set up, new entrepreneurs come through and replace those who couldn't make it. It's brutal.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1340404389509525517
I'll call him Boris when people call Starmer, Keir.
https://mobile.twitter.com/HarrietClugston/status/1340391687407984642
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55354564
(No, this isn’t where I work.)
He is, undoubtedly, A Johnson.
Meanwhile, just about the only part of England in Tier 1 (for the next five minutes, anyway) is disappearing underwater.
2020 just keeps on giving - and there are still twelve days to go. What do we think's coming before January 1st 2021 folks? An asteroid strike, an alien invasion or a nuclear holocaust?
Will the 16m people not be on holiday, not be eating and drinking excessively, not be watching special TV programs, not be giving and getting presents.
I wonder if such terminology is used in other countries.
https://twitter.com/HarrietClugston/status/1340383304143540227
They will come mid January.
If No Deal f*cks up vaccine delivery the Tories will lose in 2024 and not see power again for a generation.
So glad we have the excellent team of ministers we have in No 10.
It's going to be an unhappy time for a great many people, though not nearly so bad as the dark, dreadful months that stretch out on the other side of it.
They certainly did a few years ago.
Also
https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1340407183998148608
So yes, Christmas is indeed completely screwed for many, many people
Edit. Not the first to think this.
Even without Tier 4 they are all breaking the current rules.
It will be throughout Europe by end Dec.
Let's get on with the vaccines!!
Still, I will read the article and digest it, when it comes. I'm not sure you have much interest in seeing Labour win though, I will leave it at that
You have to order food for Christmas we're told.
Or perhaps you can go to the supermarket.
The term 'first world problems' comes to mind.
So, maybe you have learned something
I usually go to Winchester Cathedral around about this time of year. That is sublime.
Edit: https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/09/are-the-nightingale-hospitals-being-used-how-many-built-13395246/
I see no problem in doing this since it's exactly what parcel companies do in reverse - even in Tier 4.
https://twitter.com/hackneycharlie/status/1340410419232518149?s=19
I think probably she didn’t know what station she was on.
I will resign my Labour membership immediately!
I am sure you take things I write with a pinch of salt, it's only natural.