The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Over the next few weeks everyone in the army should be trained in how to give these jabs and they should all get the Pfizer vaccine so that in January they are ready to run a 1m per day vaccination programme.
Once again, the clarion calls bump up against the logistics. 68 million people equals 136 million shots (assuming we don't get the vaccine that only needs one shot).
How far have we got so far - 500,000 shots perhaps? Someone asked today for the number of vaccinations to be added to the daily figures for cases and deaths and that sounds a good idea if the information can be properly compiled.
10 million by Christmas looks a little challenging at this time - 1 million per week will take a year to get through the over 50s (25 million x 2 shots). There are 12 million over 65 so this is going to need more than a few soldiers and some fine words.
It's not 68m as children aren't eligible the actual number is ~50m. The issue at the moment is that we don't have the AZ vaccine available as it hasn't got certification. While we have just the Pfizer vaccine it will be limited to around 1m per week as it requires medically trained staff, specialist equipment and locations. The AZ vaccine is much less fussy and can be ramped up very quickly, especially for under 50s who are already less susceptible to severe symptoms.
We should be able to hit 1m per day with the AZ vaccine. We also have the J&J single jab trial set to report in early January and production already commenced so potentially we might have 3 available vaccines in Q1, one of which only needs a single dose.
This needs a national effort unlike anything this country has seen since the war. This more virulent strain is a death knell for the economy.
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Totally agree. Draft the army in. Train the squaddies to administer. Get it done by end of Feb.
The NHS is ready. The systems are in place. The problem is the vaccine can’t be manufactured quickly enough.
What do you think the army would actually do that isn’t being done already?
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Over the next few weeks everyone in the army should be trained in how to give these jabs and they should all get the Pfizer vaccine so that in January they are ready to run a 1m per day vaccination programme.
Once again, the clarion calls bump up against the logistics. 68 million people equals 136 million shots (assuming we don't get the vaccine that only needs one shot).
How far have we got so far - 500,000 shots perhaps? Someone asked today for the number of vaccinations to be added to the daily figures for cases and deaths and that sounds a good idea if the information can be properly compiled.
10 million by Christmas looks a little challenging at this time - 1 million per week will take a year to get through the over 50s (25 million x 2 shots). There are 12 million over 65 so this is going to need more than a few soldiers and some fine words.
When I got my flu jab this year it was in a car park
There were 4 nurses injecting those walking through
There was an appointment every 1 minute, they were there 9-5, Mon-Fri for a week
So 480 jabs a day by 4nurses is 600 jabs a week per nurse.
I make that to be ~230k nurse weeks required to vaccinate the whole nation
We need the nurses free to do the jabs, not be busy on the positive C-19 wards
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Over the next few weeks everyone in the army should be trained in how to give these jabs and they should all get the Pfizer vaccine so that in January they are ready to run a 1m per day vaccination programme.
Isn't part of the problem, which should be easy to overcome but knowing this lot... that the IT systems that they depend upon is old, crap and slow
Having had 9months to prepare not obvious that those kind of things have been addressed.
Tbh, the current roll out is going well under the circumstances of what is needed for the Pfizer vaccine. With the AZ vaccine we should be able to run at a much higher rate. Enough to hit 1m per day (200k Pfizer, 800k AZ) because it can be given by non specialised people in a non specialised setting allowing for community venues to be used and the army to get the jabbing.
Even at 1m per day we'd need 3 months to get everyone vaccinated but it's something we need now with this new more virulent mutation otherwise he whole country is indefinitely in tier 4.
I don’t think it’s that long. 1m per day = 30-31m per month. Around 53 million adults in the UK = 1 month, 3 weeks, and 1 or 2 days.
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Over the next few weeks everyone in the army should be trained in how to give these jabs and they should all get the Pfizer vaccine so that in January they are ready to run a 1m per day vaccination programme.
Once again, the clarion calls bump up against the logistics. 68 million people equals 136 million shots (assuming we don't get the vaccine that only needs one shot).
How far have we got so far - 500,000 shots perhaps? Someone asked today for the number of vaccinations to be added to the daily figures for cases and deaths and that sounds a good idea if the information can be properly compiled.
10 million by Christmas looks a little challenging at this time - 1 million per week will take a year to get through the over 50s (25 million x 2 shots). There are 12 million over 65 so this is going to need more than a few soldiers and some fine words.
When I got my flu jab this year it was in a car park
There were 4 nurses injecting those walking through
There was an appointment every 1 minute, they were there 9-5, Mon-Fri for a week
So 480 jabs a day by 4nurses is 600 jabs a week per nurse.
I make that to be ~230k nurse weeks required to vaccinate the whole nation
We need the nurses free to do the jabs, not be busy on the positive C-19 wards
@Big_G_NorthWales I don't respond to you anymore after your bullying incident but you have no right to call out comments to my posts, stop acting like the forum police and leave @IanB2 alone, it was clearly a light-hearted joke.
Do me a favour and sod off, thanks kindly.
He has no right? Can't anyone reply to anyone on here, unless they have been banned from doing so by the moderator?
Fine, he has the right to respond and take offence at somebody else's comment about somebody else - however stupid and pointless - but I have every right to tell him to sod off as well.
Actually, no, you don’t
This forum benefits from being generally polite. Randomly abusing a poster you don’t like is a trick worthy of Tim or @SeanT
I don't give a shit frankly, the poster called out a post about me and insulted somebody else, even though I had no problem with it. They didn't even ask me first, that's not polite either.
Of course I am not surprised you went for the person you ideologically agreed with, as is the way with this site sadly sometimes.
Big G is a bully and a bore, so I call them as I see them. And I stand by telling him to fuck off.
That's it from me on this issue, can't be arsed with it anymore.
My daughter and her partner have aeroplane tickets for the 23rd so that they can visit his family in Norwich. Nicola’s announcement today means that they can’t go. My son’s prelims (which are of more than normal importance since the bloody exams were cancelled) were due to start on the 11th so it looks like they are going to be delayed too.
It’s all incredibly frustrating and the last minute changes make it even harder to bear. My son’s school came off yesterday. I wonder how many teachers had the foresight to take everything hone with them that was needed for remote learning.
But I am going to go out on a limb here. This was the right thing to do. The mistakes were made earlier by people apparently unable to read graphs.
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Over the next few weeks everyone in the army should be trained in how to give these jabs and they should all get the Pfizer vaccine so that in January they are ready to run a 1m per day vaccination programme.
Once again, the clarion calls bump up against the logistics. 68 million people equals 136 million shots (assuming we don't get the vaccine that only needs one shot).
How far have we got so far - 500,000 shots perhaps? Someone asked today for the number of vaccinations to be added to the daily figures for cases and deaths and that sounds a good idea if the information can be properly compiled.
10 million by Christmas looks a little challenging at this time - 1 million per week will take a year to get through the over 50s (25 million x 2 shots). There are 12 million over 65 so this is going to need more than a few soldiers and some fine words.
When I got my flu jab this year it was in a car park
There were 4 nurses injecting those walking through
There was an appointment every 1 minute, they were there 9-5, Mon-Fri for a week
So 480 jabs a day by 4nurses is 600 jabs a week per nurse.
I make that to be ~230k nurse weeks required to vaccinate the whole nation
We need the nurses free to do the jabs, not be busy on the positive C-19 wards
Is the second set of figures from the 600 seat parliament? I thought Johnson had shelved that idea.
Whatever the nature of the boundary changes Starmer would almost certainly become PM but only thanks to SNP confidence and supply
That way Starmer kills the Union, so he can't do that. Johnson (or Steve Baker) remains (minority) PM.
Starmer has already said he would hold indyref2 if the SNP win a majority next year at Holyrood if he was PM unlike Boris so he would.
Starmer would become PM, probably with a devomax offer at the same time to the SNP as well as indyref2.
However he would face the risk that if he lost the referendum then Boris would automatically be returned as PM once Scottish and SNP MPs left the Commons as Boris would have won a majority in England, Wales and NI
Meanwhile, over on Con Home a couple of posters are blaming Northerners and Midlanders ignoring the rules for causing the lockdown in the SE. You couldn't make it up!
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Totally agree. Draft the army in. Train the squaddies to administer. Get it done by end of Feb.
The NHS is ready. The systems are in place. The problem is the vaccine can’t be manufactured quickly enough.
What do you think the army would actually do that isn’t being done already?
They do bayonet practice on sand bags, it ain’t much different.
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Over the next few weeks everyone in the army should be trained in how to give these jabs and they should all get the Pfizer vaccine so that in January they are ready to run a 1m per day vaccination programme.
Once again, the clarion calls bump up against the logistics. 68 million people equals 136 million shots (assuming we don't get the vaccine that only needs one shot).
How far have we got so far - 500,000 shots perhaps? Someone asked today for the number of vaccinations to be added to the daily figures for cases and deaths and that sounds a good idea if the information can be properly compiled.
10 million by Christmas looks a little challenging at this time - 1 million per week will take a year to get through the over 50s (25 million x 2 shots). There are 12 million over 65 so this is going to need more than a few soldiers and some fine words.
The Daily Merkle has done the sums had reckons it will take a decade just to do the vulnerable people
"It had already emerged last week that it would take a decade to vaccinate all of Britain's 30million vulnerable residents if the mammoth jab operation continues at its current speed. "
Is the second set of figures from the 600 seat parliament? I thought Johnson had shelved that idea.
Whatever the nature of the boundary changes Starmer would almost certainly become PM but only thanks to SNP confidence and supply
That way Starmer kills the Union, so he can't do that. Johnson (or Steve Baker) remains (minority) PM.
I am not so sure about that. My guess is that the quickest way for the SNP to lose a decent chunk of support from its left flank would be to do anything that could be portrayed as enabling the Tories to carry on governing in Westminster.
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Over the next few weeks everyone in the army should be trained in how to give these jabs and they should all get the Pfizer vaccine so that in January they are ready to run a 1m per day vaccination programme.
Once again, the clarion calls bump up against the logistics. 68 million people equals 136 million shots (assuming we don't get the vaccine that only needs one shot).
How far have we got so far - 500,000 shots perhaps? Someone asked today for the number of vaccinations to be added to the daily figures for cases and deaths and that sounds a good idea if the information can be properly compiled.
10 million by Christmas looks a little challenging at this time - 1 million per week will take a year to get through the over 50s (25 million x 2 shots). There are 12 million over 65 so this is going to need more than a few soldiers and some fine words.
When I got my flu jab this year it was in a car park
There were 4 nurses injecting those walking through
There was an appointment every 1 minute, they were there 9-5, Mon-Fri for a week
So 480 jabs a day by 4nurses is 600 jabs a week per nurse.
I make that to be ~230k nurse weeks required to vaccinate the whole nation
We need the nurses free to do the jabs, not be busy on the positive C-19 wards
They plan to recruit and train vaccinators.
Why didn't they do this well in advance?
They'd be sitting around with nothing to do
Just like the Army but we still have them ready for when the war starts.
Is the second set of figures from the 600 seat parliament? I thought Johnson had shelved that idea.
Whatever the nature of the boundary changes Starmer would almost certainly become PM but only thanks to SNP confidence and supply
That way Starmer kills the Union, so he can't do that. Johnson (or Steve Baker) remains (minority) PM.
Starmer has already said he would hold indyref2 if the SNP win a majority next year unlike Boris so he would.
Starmer would become PM, probably with a devomax offer at the same time to the SNP as well as indyref2.
However he would face the risk that if he lost the referendum then Boris would automatically be returned as PM once Scottish and SNP MPs left the Commons as Boris would have won a majority in England, Wales and NI
If Boris loses in 2024 he'll be back to mashing words on the Spectator and the Torygraph, so wouldn't benefit.
It's not 68m as children aren't eligible the actual number is ~50m. The issue at the moment is that we don't have the AZ vaccine available as it hasn't got certification. While we have just the Pfizer vaccine it will be limited to around 1m per week as it requires medically trained staff, specialist equipment and locations. The AZ vaccine is much less fussy and can be ramped up very quickly, especially for under 50s who are already less susceptible to severe symptoms.
We should be able to hit 1m per day with the AZ vaccine. We also have the J&J single jab trial set to report in early January and production already commenced so potentially we might have 3 available vaccines in Q1, one of which only needs a single dose.
This needs a national effort unlike anything this country has seen since the war. This more virulent strain is a death knell for the economy.
Agreed on the children but I stand by 25 million over 65s and it looks several orders of magnitude greater than the annual flu jab (just one jab over a period of weeks and months).
I'm going to disagree with you on the economy - the doomsayers are wrong, frankly. You have yourself stated there is going to be a strong post-Covid recovery and I agree - I have more money to spend next year because I've spent nothing this year and I won't be alone.
I'll be blunt - those businesses which make it through to the summer of 2021 are going to be fine - economic activity will be through the roof once vaccinations are in place and a degree of normality returns. Those which don't - well, there's an issue over how much Sunak should be propping up business to get through the next 6 months and I'd argue capitalism is a brutal machine. If you fall, someone will take your place - there are entrepreneurs who have done well out of Covid (anything to do with home delivery or home working for example).
Yes, the recovery may start later than some would have liked but by the second half of 2021 the world will look a very different place and the economic outlook will look very different.
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Over the next few weeks everyone in the army should be trained in how to give these jabs and they should all get the Pfizer vaccine so that in January they are ready to run a 1m per day vaccination programme.
Agreed. This isn't fast enough.
And the virus needs to be suppressed before it works out to side-step the vaccine. Or we might have another full year of this.
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Over the next few weeks everyone in the army should be trained in how to give these jabs and they should all get the Pfizer vaccine so that in January they are ready to run a 1m per day vaccination programme.
Isn't part of the problem, which should be easy to overcome but knowing this lot... that the IT systems that they depend upon is old, crap and slow
Having had 9months to prepare not obvious that those kind of things have been addressed.
Tbh, the current roll out is going well under the circumstances of what is needed for the Pfizer vaccine. With the AZ vaccine we should be able to run at a much higher rate. Enough to hit 1m per day (200k Pfizer, 800k AZ) because it can be given by non specialised people in a non specialised setting allowing for community venues to be used and the army to get the jabbing.
Even at 1m per day we'd need 3 months to get everyone vaccinated but it's something we need now with this new more virulent mutation otherwise he whole country is indefinitely in tier 4.
How far have we got so far - 500,000 shots perhaps? Someone asked today for the number of vaccinations to be added to the daily figures for cases and deaths and that sounds a good idea if the information can be properly compiled.
10 million by Christmas looks a little challenging at this time - 1 million per week will take a year to get through the over 50s (25 million x 2 shots). There are 12 million over 65 so this is going to need more than a few soldiers and some fine words.
Also, without wanting to add to the gloom, that 500,000 number we were all working on from previous discussion seemed to magically become 350,000 in the press conference today...?
Meh. Let's see what happens in the spring when tens of millions have been vaccinated, the gloom lifts, and life and liberty gradually return to normal. If that goes well, no one will care too much about a necessarily truncated Christmas.
Meanwhile, at least the Northerners will be (relatively!) happy...
I'm sorry but nobody believes a word of this bullsh8t any more, based if nothing else on the assurances given to MPs and the public by Johnson's government in the past.
Today its a mutant strain. In the spring it will be some other reason. For authoritarians, there is always a good reason. If you think the people who lord it over our lives are going to give up that power so easily, well I have a bridge to sell you.
We are in this for the duration. We are in it until this government is replaced by one that realises that rule by 'not overwhelming the NHS' is destroying our country. Its culture, its economy, its mental health, its future, its liberty. Almost irretrievably.
I mention the numbers Johnson is racking up, and all I get is insults. Presumably you don;t want to face them either.
No. You don't believe it. The majority of people clearly do and were very much in favour of tougher measures well before Johnson started signalling it. Go bury your head back in the sand where you belong.
Let’s be clear. I hate Johnson. I also despise him.
But anyone who thinks his instincts are authoritarian on this is simply not looking at the facts.
On the contrary, he’s been far too relaxed for far too long far too often.
Truthfully, that is a positive about him as a person. I prefer my leaders not to be fascists. But it isn’t helpful right now. May or Brown with their controlling instincts would have done better.
Not sure, Drakeford's instincts are pretty controlling actually. He's not done much better than Boris.
I think the horrible truth is that to beat this virus, you really do have to be semi-fascist in the control that you exert on your population (cf China).
Wouldn’t have said Drakeford was that controlling. Leaving aside the fact he’s even more incoherent and inconsistent than Johnson, the problem with his famous ‘circuit breaker’ was that it lasted one week before reopening the majority of schools and then a week later almost all restrictions vanished.
A true authoritarian would have kept a much tighter grip through November.
The Welsh lockdown was simply too short - Drakeford can absolutely be held responsible for that and he should be.
Has that new virus strain reached Wales yet?
It’s still stuck with dolphins, but it has Big Ambitions.
Blow me.
Well, that’s a very generous offer, but unless you are truly magnificently endowed it would be a breach of social distancing and I must regretfully decline.
So we weren’t doing ocean mammal puns after all, then? Honest mistake.
I did it on porpoise.
Otterly shameless.....
When you took Carnyx’s pun, were you in ignorance or did you have a Tarka purpose?
My puns are stellar, see? Cow......
Never thought I'd see Hydrodamalis gigas referenced in a political website!
It's not 68m as children aren't eligible the actual number is ~50m. The issue at the moment is that we don't have the AZ vaccine available as it hasn't got certification. While we have just the Pfizer vaccine it will be limited to around 1m per week as it requires medically trained staff, specialist equipment and locations. The AZ vaccine is much less fussy and can be ramped up very quickly, especially for under 50s who are already less susceptible to severe symptoms.
We should be able to hit 1m per day with the AZ vaccine. We also have the J&J single jab trial set to report in early January and production already commenced so potentially we might have 3 available vaccines in Q1, one of which only needs a single dose.
This needs a national effort unlike anything this country has seen since the war. This more virulent strain is a death knell for the economy.
Agreed on the children but I stand by 25 million over 65s and it looks several orders of magnitude greater than the annual flu jab (just one jab over a period of weeks and months).
I'm going to disagree with you on the economy - the doomsayers are wrong, frankly. You have yourself stated there is going to be a strong post-Covid recovery and I agree - I have more money to spend next year because I've spent nothing this year and I won't be alone.
I'll be blunt - those businesses which make it through to the summer of 2021 are going to be fine - economic activity will be through the roof once vaccinations are in place and a degree of normality returns. Those which don't - well, there's an issue over how much Sunak should be propping up business to get through the next 6 months and I'd argue capitalism is a brutal machine. If you fall, someone will take your place - there are entrepreneurs who have done well out of Covid (anything to do with home delivery or home working for example).
Yes, the recovery may start later than some would have liked but by the second half of 2021 the world will look a very different place and the economic outlook will look very different.
The point is that with the new strain we can't go back to normal until the vaccine hits 70-80% of the population so we get herd immunity. If we could slowly release the economy as we vaccinated the older people it would be fine, but with this new strain we can't. Too many young people are going to be hospitalised and clog up the hospitals at this rate in London.
We're now nationally in tier 4 from January indefinitely if the government doesn't get the vaccine programme running at anything like 1m per day.
He just announced we will be having it Australian style...
Nah. That requires drinking white wine in the sun and that is definitely not happening.
Mphm. Quite right. I remember a safari on Kangaroo Island - watching koalas and then drinking RED with the barbecued steaks at lunchtime. Just warmed in the sun to the right degree.
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Over the next few weeks everyone in the army should be trained in how to give these jabs and they should all get the Pfizer vaccine so that in January they are ready to run a 1m per day vaccination programme.
Once again, the clarion calls bump up against the logistics. 68 million people equals 136 million shots (assuming we don't get the vaccine that only needs one shot).
How far have we got so far - 500,000 shots perhaps? Someone asked today for the number of vaccinations to be added to the daily figures for cases and deaths and that sounds a good idea if the information can be properly compiled.
10 million by Christmas looks a little challenging at this time - 1 million per week will take a year to get through the over 50s (25 million x 2 shots). There are 12 million over 65 so this is going to need more than a few soldiers and some fine words.
When I got my flu jab this year it was in a car park
There were 4 nurses injecting those walking through
There was an appointment every 1 minute, they were there 9-5, Mon-Fri for a week
So 480 jabs a day by 4nurses is 600 jabs a week per nurse.
I make that to be ~230k nurse weeks required to vaccinate the whole nation
We need the nurses free to do the jabs, not be busy on the positive C-19 wards
My daughter and her partner have aeroplane tickets for the 23rd so that they can visit his family in Norwich. Nicola’s announcement today means that they can’t go. My son’s prelims (which are of more than normal importance since the bloody exams were cancelled) were due to start on the 11th so it looks like they are going to be delayed too.
It’s all incredibly frustrating and the last minute changes make it even harder to bear. My son’s school came off yesterday. I wonder how many teachers had the foresight to take everything hone with them that was needed for remote learning.
But I am going to go out on a limb here. This was the right thing to do. The mistakes were made earlier by people apparently unable to read graphs.
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Totally agree. Draft the army in. Train the squaddies to administer. Get it done by end of Feb.
The NHS is ready. The systems are in place. The problem is the vaccine can’t be manufactured quickly enough.
What do you think the army would actually do that isn’t being done already?
They do bayonet practice on sand bags, it ain’t much different.
They're trained to inject themselces and colleagues VERY quickly with such things as ACH antagonists if a nerve gas warhead (as advertised by A. R. P. Blair) explodes.
It's not 68m as children aren't eligible the actual number is ~50m. The issue at the moment is that we don't have the AZ vaccine available as it hasn't got certification. While we have just the Pfizer vaccine it will be limited to around 1m per week as it requires medically trained staff, specialist equipment and locations. The AZ vaccine is much less fussy and can be ramped up very quickly, especially for under 50s who are already less susceptible to severe symptoms.
We should be able to hit 1m per day with the AZ vaccine. We also have the J&J single jab trial set to report in early January and production already commenced so potentially we might have 3 available vaccines in Q1, one of which only needs a single dose.
This needs a national effort unlike anything this country has seen since the war. This more virulent strain is a death knell for the economy.
Agreed on the children but I stand by 25 million over 65s and it looks several orders of magnitude greater than the annual flu jab (just one jab over a period of weeks and months).
I'm going to disagree with you on the economy - the doomsayers are wrong, frankly. You have yourself stated there is going to be a strong post-Covid recovery and I agree - I have more money to spend next year because I've spent nothing this year and I won't be alone.
I'll be blunt - those businesses which make it through to the summer of 2021 are going to be fine - economic activity will be through the roof once vaccinations are in place and a degree of normality returns. Those which don't - well, there's an issue over how much Sunak should be propping up business to get through the next 6 months and I'd argue capitalism is a brutal machine. If you fall, someone will take your place - there are entrepreneurs who have done well out of Covid (anything to do with home delivery or home working for example).
Yes, the recovery may start later than some would have liked but by the second half of 2021 the world will look a very different place and the economic outlook will look very different.
The point is that with the new strain we can't go back to normal until the vaccine hits 70-80% of the population so we get herd immunity. If we could slowly release the economy as we vaccinated the older people it would be fine, but with this new strain we can't. Too many young people are going to be hospitalised and clog up the hospitals at this rate in London.
We're now nationally in tier 4 from January indefinitely if the government doesn't get the vaccine programme running at anything like 1m per day.
Best scenario for Britain?
Vacinnate the nation and then, the world. With Oxford. With special one-off UK aid.
Would buy superb influence and goodwill for years. Would really give us a fantastic boost in our new world role, and re-set perceptions about us.
But, we have to get it out asap. And before this virus (little bastard that it is) decides to mutate into something that renders it moot again.
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Totally agree. Draft the army in. Train the squaddies to administer. Get it done by end of Feb.
The NHS is ready. The systems are in place. The problem is the vaccine can’t be manufactured quickly enough.
What do you think the army would actually do that isn’t being done already?
We had 800,000 shots (multiplied by the effect of allowing use of the dregs) with more supposedly soon behind, and in nearly two weeks we’ve got through 500,000. Supply doesn’t appear the critical restriction right now.
@Big_G_NorthWales I don't respond to you anymore after your bullying incident but you have no right to call out comments to my posts, stop acting like the forum police and leave @IanB2 alone, it was clearly a light-hearted joke.
Do me a favour and sod off, thanks kindly.
He has no right? Can't anyone reply to anyone on here, unless they have been banned from doing so by the moderator?
Fine, he has the right to respond and take offence at somebody else's comment about somebody else - however stupid and pointless - but I have every right to tell him to sod off as well.
Actually, no, you don’t
This forum benefits from being generally polite. Randomly abusing a poster you don’t like is a trick worthy of Tim or @SeanT
I don't give a shit frankly, the poster called out a post about me and insulted somebody else, even though I had no problem with it. They didn't even ask me first, that's not polite either.
Of course I am not surprised you went for the person you ideologically agreed with, as is the way with this site sadly sometimes.
Big G is a bully and a bore, so I call them as I see them. And I stand by telling him to fuck off.
That's it from me on this issue, can't be arsed with it anymore.
Feel free to be as robust as you like in debate
But swearing and randomly being offensive to a poster you don’t like adds nothing to this board
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Totally agree. Draft the army in. Train the squaddies to administer. Get it done by end of Feb.
The NHS is ready. The systems are in place. The problem is the vaccine can’t be manufactured quickly enough.
What do you think the army would actually do that isn’t being done already?
We had 800,000 shots (multiplied by the effect of allowing use of the dregs) with more supposedly soon behind, and in nearly two weeks we’ve got through 500,000. Supply doesn’t appear the critical restriction right now.
Depends what the breakdown between the first and second week was. I doubt it started at maximum speed/efficiency.
I'll be writing an article on the dire predicament Labour is in within the next few weeks.
It's not a new predicament. Labour's position in England is so poor it needs all the help it can get from anti-Conservative forces here there and everywhere. The trouble for Starmer is the more he looks dependent on the SNP the less attractive he becomes to English voters - it's the same problem Ed M had.
I do think Starmer can win back some English votes and I suspect the attraction of Johnson won't be next time what it was last time. He basically needs to win 40-50 English seats and that's a big challenge.
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Over the next few weeks everyone in the army should be trained in how to give these jabs and they should all get the Pfizer vaccine so that in January they are ready to run a 1m per day vaccination programme.
Once again, the clarion calls bump up against the logistics. 68 million people equals 136 million shots (assuming we don't get the vaccine that only needs one shot).
How far have we got so far - 500,000 shots perhaps? Someone asked today for the number of vaccinations to be added to the daily figures for cases and deaths and that sounds a good idea if the information can be properly compiled.
10 million by Christmas looks a little challenging at this time - 1 million per week will take a year to get through the over 50s (25 million x 2 shots). There are 12 million over 65 so this is going to need more than a few soldiers and some fine words.
When I got my flu jab this year it was in a car park
There were 4 nurses injecting those walking through
There was an appointment every 1 minute, they were there 9-5, Mon-Fri for a week
So 480 jabs a day by 4nurses is 600 jabs a week per nurse.
I make that to be ~230k nurse weeks required to vaccinate the whole nation
We need the nurses free to do the jabs, not be busy on the positive C-19 wards
They plan to recruit and train vaccinators.
Why didn't they do this well in advance?
Too busy with all the preparations for no deal Brexit?
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Totally agree. Draft the army in. Train the squaddies to administer. Get it done by end of Feb.
The NHS is ready. The systems are in place. The problem is the vaccine can’t be manufactured quickly enough.
What do you think the army would actually do that isn’t being done already?
We had 800,000 shots (multiplied by the effect of allowing use of the dregs) with more supposedly soon behind, and in nearly two weeks we’ve got through 500,000. Supply doesn’t appear the critical restriction right now.
"The prime minister announced 350,000 people had been given the first dose of the vaccine in the first two weeks of the programme."
@Big_G_NorthWales I don't respond to you anymore after your bullying incident but you have no right to call out comments to my posts, stop acting like the forum police and leave @IanB2 alone, it was clearly a light-hearted joke.
Do me a favour and sod off, thanks kindly.
He has no right? Can't anyone reply to anyone on here, unless they have been banned from doing so by the moderator?
Fine, he has the right to respond and take offence at somebody else's comment about somebody else - however stupid and pointless - but I have every right to tell him to sod off as well.
Actually, no, you don’t
This forum benefits from being generally polite. Randomly abusing a poster you don’t like is a trick worthy of Tim or @SeanT
I don't give a shit frankly, the poster called out a post about me and insulted somebody else, even though I had no problem with it. They didn't even ask me first, that's not polite either.
Of course I am not surprised you went for the person you ideologically agreed with, as is the way with this site sadly sometimes.
Big G is a bully and a bore, so I call them as I see them. And I stand by telling him to fuck off.
That's it from me on this issue, can't be arsed with it anymore.
Feel free to be as robust as you like in debate
But swearing and randomly being offensive to a poster you don’t like adds nothing to this board
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Totally agree. Draft the army in. Train the squaddies to administer. Get it done by end of Feb.
The NHS is ready. The systems are in place. The problem is the vaccine can’t be manufactured quickly enough.
What do you think the army would actually do that isn’t being done already?
We had 800,000 shots (multiplied by the effect of allowing use of the dregs) with more supposedly soon behind, and in nearly two weeks we’ve got through 500,000. Supply doesn’t appear the critical restriction right now.
"The prime minister announced 350,000 people had been given the first dose of the vaccine in the first two weeks of the programme."
What is shameful? It took a couple of days to understand the effects of the new strain?
Are you saying Hancock and Johnson didn't talk about this until yesterday? All week?
Listen to Johnson, he was very very clever today to give himself get out clause if mutant COVID not as bad as his government has been ramping.
“The data looks like this is a more virulent strain... could turn out it adds 0.4 to r rate... we have shared what we know with WHO... it could turn out we were mistaken, but we would still have been right to act on what the data appears to be telling us...”.
The media i followed since having removed all the “could” 🙂.
Is it just mutant cov that caused the surge? To what degree did government taking us out of 2.0 into sporting stadia and crowded shopping precincts contribute to the surge?
We will never know the answers to those two questions.
Third question.
To what degree did 2.0 reduce r enough to allow the exit into tiers, the shopping, the Xmas free for all?
I think we can answer that one. It didn’t. Even if there had been no mutation/mutation is hyped, it didn’t. The government were in a hole before the “m” word, but now they are out of it. Because Johnson is absolutely right in what he has been very careful to tell us - even if mutant c proves not to be as bad as currently feared, it was still right for his government to act.
Politically the government have played a blinder today, and we should respect them for that. On this form, Brexit deal is DEFINITELY announced Thursday afternoon, on basis of minimal scrutiny and fastest rubber stamp in history.
He just announced we will be having it Australian style...
Nah. That requires drinking white wine in the sun and that is definitely not happening.
Quite sunny this morning walking my pup, albeit very muddy. Drinking a fairly decent Coonawarra red. Is that close enough?
Town crowded this PM. Pretty much like a regular Christmas, minus pubs and restaurants. Mask adherence of shoppers probably about 70% and not great social distancing. Lots of clothes in the sales, starting early. Glad I wore an N95 mask.
It's not 68m as children aren't eligible the actual number is ~50m. The issue at the moment is that we don't have the AZ vaccine available as it hasn't got certification. While we have just the Pfizer vaccine it will be limited to around 1m per week as it requires medically trained staff, specialist equipment and locations. The AZ vaccine is much less fussy and can be ramped up very quickly, especially for under 50s who are already less susceptible to severe symptoms.
We should be able to hit 1m per day with the AZ vaccine. We also have the J&J single jab trial set to report in early January and production already commenced so potentially we might have 3 available vaccines in Q1, one of which only needs a single dose.
This needs a national effort unlike anything this country has seen since the war. This more virulent strain is a death knell for the economy.
Agreed on the children but I stand by 25 million over 65s and it looks several orders of magnitude greater than the annual flu jab (just one jab over a period of weeks and months).
I'm going to disagree with you on the economy - the doomsayers are wrong, frankly. You have yourself stated there is going to be a strong post-Covid recovery and I agree - I have more money to spend next year because I've spent nothing this year and I won't be alone.
I'll be blunt - those businesses which make it through to the summer of 2021 are going to be fine - economic activity will be through the roof once vaccinations are in place and a degree of normality returns. Those which don't - well, there's an issue over how much Sunak should be propping up business to get through the next 6 months and I'd argue capitalism is a brutal machine. If you fall, someone will take your place - there are entrepreneurs who have done well out of Covid (anything to do with home delivery or home working for example).
Yes, the recovery may start later than some would have liked but by the second half of 2021 the world will look a very different place and the economic outlook will look very different.
But the same argument as last spring holds ; many of these businesses haven't even failed on capitalism's own terms, but because of government action, however unavoidable that may be. That means that if even one accepts this market ideologist approach in principle, which I personally don't at all, one has to admit that many, if not all, these businesses have not failed its own test without external factors.
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Totally agree. Draft the army in. Train the squaddies to administer. Get it done by end of Feb.
The NHS is ready. The systems are in place. The problem is the vaccine can’t be manufactured quickly enough.
What do you think the army would actually do that isn’t being done already?
We had 800,000 shots (multiplied by the effect of allowing use of the dregs) with more supposedly soon behind, and in nearly two weeks we’ve got through 500,000. Supply doesn’t appear the critical restriction right now.
Given that we are vaccinating named patients rather than all and sundry that’s pretty damn good
The government really needs to step up the vaccination programme from January once the AZ one is available. The current strategy is no longer enough, under 50s need to be vaccinated alongside older people or we're going to have no businesses left by April.
Totally agree. Draft the army in. Train the squaddies to administer. Get it done by end of Feb.
The NHS is ready. The systems are in place. The problem is the vaccine can’t be manufactured quickly enough.
What do you think the army would actually do that isn’t being done already?
We had 800,000 shots (multiplied by the effect of allowing use of the dregs) with more supposedly soon behind, and in nearly two weeks we’ve got through 500,000. Supply doesn’t appear the critical restriction right now.
Given that we are vaccinating named patients rather than all and sundry that’s pretty damn good
It appears it may only be 350000
I agree calling people by name in some sort of order is more difficult than offering a jab to whoever walks in
What is shameful? It took a couple of days to understand the effects of the new strain?
Are you saying Hancock and Johnson didn't talk about this until yesterday? All week?
No I am saying that the “effects of the new strain” are not necessarily just limited to the “rise in Covid infectivity”
We don’t know what Johnson has been briefed.
Although we do know he’s been caught with his pants well and truly down.
There was some wordplay about “theoretical” risk to vaccine immunity but “no evidence of it”. We have morons asking the questions but surely the question should have been:
“This new strain is now out there. If it dodges the vaccine, what’s your plan guys? Perpetual dystopian authoritarianism? What’s a permissible level of excess death in the pension age population for us to swallow this and move on?”
Shocking that 10 months into this no one is prepared to put grown up pants on and think through the truly hard questions.
It is only 12 months ago nice Johnson won an 80 seat majority. There has certainly been some buyer's remorse since then.
Nobody on here with anything about them has suggested Labour would be Infront at this point. I certainly haven't. It has been my view that the vaccine and Sunak's 3rd tranche of furlough would have given the Conservatives a bounce. I am surprised it hasn't. I would also imagine a Brexit deal bounce for Johnson next week too.
EdM had almost continual leads at the equivalent point, sometimes leads of over 10%:
Max B said "The point is that with the new strain we can't go back to normal until the vaccine hits 70-80% of the population so we get herd immunity." NOT SO. At least: there is no need to get herd immunity in order to massively reduce deaths from Covid. 5.7 million Britons are 75 or over. Those aged 75 or over account for 75 per cent of Covid fatalities to date. So: vaccinating everyone aged at least 75 could cut 71 per cent of the UK-wide risk, assuming a 95 per cent efficacy. [It's true that the new strain spreads faster, but absolutely no evidence that it spreads extra fast among those among whom it's more likely to be fatal.]
He just announced we will be having it Australian style...
Nah. That requires drinking white wine in the sun and that is definitely not happening.
Quite sunny this morning walking my pup, albeit very muddy. Drinking a fairly decent Coonawarra red. Is that close enough?
Town crowded this PM. Pretty much like a regular Christmas, minus pubs and restaurants. Mask adherence of shoppers probably about 70% and not great social distancing. Lots of clothes in the sales, starting early. Glad I wore an N95 mask.
You were drinking wine while walking the dog? I've seen that in the Calton in Glasgow..
Just looking through some national infection rate curves across the world, I'd guess that this new strain is now present in the UK, Germany, the US and the Netherlands in detectable quantities which means it will be in the rest of Europe too by now.
Whatever vaccine plans Europe has got need to be doubled and then doubled agan. An R increase of 0.4 within current measures is just going to hammer the economy everywhere.
Honestly I can't see how the rest of the world copes with this, we're relatively well placed with our vaccine portfolio and deliveries. It's on us to get it out there. Lots of the rest of the world doesn't even have enough to cover their population or delivery in 2021, many will be waiting until 2022.
I'll recant on my original position of cancelling the aid budget and say the whole thing should be redirected to procuring and rolling the vaccine out across the world. We can't let this hide anywhere, mutate and then come back.
I have decided that anyone trotting out the "clown" meme is wrong, as they are obviously doing that as an alternative to thinking. The same goes for "Bozo".
I have decided that anyone trotting out the "clown" meme is wrong, as they are obviously doing that as an alternative to thinking. The same goes for "Bozo".
What about calling him "Boris" as opposed to Johnson?
Max B said "The point is that with the new strain we can't go back to normal until the vaccine hits 70-80% of the population so we get herd immunity." NOT SO. At least: there is no need to get herd immunity in order to massively reduce deaths from Covid. 5.7 million Britons are 75 or over. Those aged 75 or over account for 75 per cent of Covid fatalities to date. So: vaccinating everyone aged at least 75 could cut 71 per cent of the UK-wide risk, assuming a 95 per cent efficacy. [It's true that the new strain spreads faster, but absolutely no evidence that it spreads extra fast among those among whom it's more likely to be fatal.]
No, with the new virus strain it will cause a hospitalisation rate far too high for the NHS to handle. The only way to beat it now is to vaccinate enough people. Even our best adhered to lockdowns only produced an R of 0.6, the new strain adds 0.4 to the R which means whatever we do, the R will never really go that far below 1 and we know that around half of hospitalisations come from young people.
Just looking through some national infection rate curves across the world, I'd guess that this new strain is now present in the UK, Germany, the US and the Netherlands in detectable quantities which means it will be in the rest of Europe too by now.
Whatever vaccine plans Europe has got need to be doubled and then doubled agan. An R increase of 0.4 within current measures is just going to hammer the economy everywhere.
Honestly I can't see how the rest of the world copes with this, we're relatively well placed with our vaccine portfolio and deliveries. It's on us to get it out there. Lots of the rest of the world doesn't even have enough to cover their population or delivery in 2021, many will be waiting until 2022.
I'll recant on my original position of cancelling the aid budget and say the whole thing should be redirected to procuring and rolling the vaccine out across the world. We can't let this hide anywhere, mutate and then come back.
Casino Royale made an excellent point about such actions both helping to restore Britain's international image and serving a crucial function for own health.
Comments
We should be able to hit 1m per day with the AZ vaccine. We also have the J&J single jab trial set to report in early January and production already commenced so potentially we might have 3 available vaccines in Q1, one of which only needs a single dose.
This needs a national effort unlike anything this country has seen since the war. This more virulent strain is a death knell for the economy.
Not. Fast. Enough.
Of course I am not surprised you went for the person you ideologically agreed with, as is the way with this site sadly sometimes.
Big G is a bully and a bore, so I call them as I see them. And I stand by telling him to fuck off.
That's it from me on this issue, can't be arsed with it anymore.
My son’s prelims (which are of more than normal importance since the bloody exams were cancelled) were due to start on the 11th so it looks like they are going to be delayed too.
It’s all incredibly frustrating and the last minute changes make it even harder to bear. My son’s school came off yesterday. I wonder how many teachers had the foresight to take everything hone with them that was needed for remote learning.
But I am going to go out on a limb here. This was the right thing to do. The mistakes were made earlier by people apparently unable to read graphs.
Starmer would become PM, probably with a devomax offer at the same time to the SNP as well as indyref2.
However he would face the risk that if he lost the referendum then Boris would automatically be returned as PM once Scottish and SNP MPs left the Commons as Boris would have won a majority in England, Wales and NI
BoZo did not in fact cancel Christmas.
He just announced we will be having it Australian style...
You couldn't make it up!
"It had already emerged last week that it would take a decade to vaccinate all of Britain's 30million vulnerable residents if the mammoth jab operation continues at its current speed. "
The NHS would be overwhelmed with hypothermia.
I'm going to disagree with you on the economy - the doomsayers are wrong, frankly. You have yourself stated there is going to be a strong post-Covid recovery and I agree - I have more money to spend next year because I've spent nothing this year and I won't be alone.
I'll be blunt - those businesses which make it through to the summer of 2021 are going to be fine - economic activity will be through the roof once vaccinations are in place and a degree of normality returns. Those which don't - well, there's an issue over how much Sunak should be propping up business to get through the next 6 months and I'd argue capitalism is a brutal machine. If you fall, someone will take your place - there are entrepreneurs who have done well out of Covid (anything to do with home delivery or home working for example).
Yes, the recovery may start later than some would have liked but by the second half of 2021 the world will look a very different place and the economic outlook will look very different.
And the virus needs to be suppressed before it works out to side-step the vaccine. Or we might have another full year of this.
Oxford- sign me up.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/18/northern-beaches-covid-cluster-grows-gladys-berejiklian-sydneysiders-masks
There might be many on this site who'll mock me for this - but I feel rather empty about missing out on carols and a Christmas service.
It really moves me this time of year.
We're now nationally in tier 4 from January indefinitely if the government doesn't get the vaccine programme running at anything like 1m per day.
We don’t know what Johnson has been briefed.
Vacinnate the nation and then, the world. With Oxford. With special one-off UK aid.
Would buy superb influence and goodwill for years. Would really give us a fantastic boost in our new world role, and re-set perceptions about us.
But, we have to get it out asap. And before this virus (little bastard that it is) decides to mutate into something that renders it moot again.
https://twitter.com/robertflorence/status/1340391504574083075?s=19
But swearing and randomly being offensive to a poster you don’t like adds nothing to this board
The rest of the country will be screwed shortly
I do think Starmer can win back some English votes and I suspect the attraction of Johnson won't be next time what it was last time. He basically needs to win 40-50 English seats and that's a big challenge.
Or maybe it's only 350,000
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55379220
Seems like it's on tomorrow, I must have got confused
https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1340397714010374144
Honestly, we’ve had four different policies in three days. My head is spinning.
“The data looks like this is a more virulent strain... could turn out it adds 0.4 to r rate... we have shared what we know with WHO... it could turn out we were mistaken, but we would still have been right to act on what the data appears to be telling us...”.
The media i followed since having removed all the “could” 🙂.
Is it just mutant cov that caused the surge? To what degree did government taking us out of 2.0 into sporting stadia and crowded shopping precincts contribute to the surge?
We will never know the answers to those two questions.
Third question.
To what degree did 2.0 reduce r enough to allow the exit into tiers, the shopping, the Xmas free for all?
I think we can answer that one. It didn’t. Even if there had been no mutation/mutation is hyped, it didn’t. The government were in a hole before the “m” word, but now they are out of it. Because Johnson is absolutely right in what he has been very careful to tell us - even if mutant c proves not to be as bad as currently feared, it was still right for his government to act.
Politically the government have played a blinder today, and we should respect them for that. On this form, Brexit deal is DEFINITELY announced Thursday afternoon, on basis of minimal scrutiny and fastest rubber stamp in history.
Town crowded this PM. Pretty much like a regular Christmas, minus pubs and restaurants. Mask adherence of shoppers probably about 70% and not great social distancing. Lots of clothes in the sales, starting early. Glad I wore an N95 mask.
Pants truly down. What a clown.
I want to krill this now.
I agree calling people by name in some sort of order is more difficult than offering a jab to whoever walks in
https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1340331760886935553?s=20
“This new strain is now out there. If it dodges the vaccine, what’s your plan guys? Perpetual dystopian authoritarianism? What’s a permissible level of excess death in the pension age population for us to swallow this and move on?”
Shocking that 10 months into this no one is prepared to put grown up pants on and think through the truly hard questions.
Sticking to the tiers has probably saved Boris from a challenge.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election_(2010–2012)#2011
NOT SO. At least: there is no need to get herd immunity in order to massively reduce deaths from Covid.
5.7 million Britons are 75 or over. Those aged 75 or over account for 75 per cent of Covid fatalities to date.
So: vaccinating everyone aged at least 75 could cut 71 per cent of the UK-wide risk, assuming a 95 per cent efficacy.
[It's true that the new strain spreads faster, but absolutely no evidence that it spreads extra fast among those among whom it's more likely to be fatal.]
Whatever vaccine plans Europe has got need to be doubled and then doubled agan. An R increase of 0.4 within current measures is just going to hammer the economy everywhere.
Honestly I can't see how the rest of the world copes with this, we're relatively well placed with our vaccine portfolio and deliveries. It's on us to get it out there. Lots of the rest of the world doesn't even have enough to cover their population or delivery in 2021, many will be waiting until 2022.
I'll recant on my original position of cancelling the aid budget and say the whole thing should be redirected to procuring and rolling the vaccine out across the world. We can't let this hide anywhere, mutate and then come back.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1340402307406716928