My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall, nor can they be seen to back No Deal, Long Bailey was more Eurosceptic than Starmer so the only challenge would come from a diehard Remainer like Ben Bradshaw or David Lammy but that would be very unlikely to succeed and unlikely to happen anyway
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
No, as 2/3 of Tory MPs would still have voted for a Deal, as would his most likely replacement Rishi Sunak, so he would survive any confidence vote
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
No, as 2/3 of Tory MPs would still have voted for a Deal, as would his most likely replacement Rishi Sunak, so he would survive any confidence vote
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall [snip]
Factory ships hoover them up to make fertilizer and the like, don't think the UK is much involved in it. It's a great detriment to seabird life as they're a vital part of the the food chain.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Just done mine. It says:
"Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 12/05/2021 and 03/06/2021"
This is much later that I had hoped.
I could be looking at mid September apparently. Eh, it'll be fine.
just noticed skybet have voided my bets on Shaun Bailey to get most votes in London Mayor Election without Sadiq Khan. but cant find the small print of their rules to argue with them. if there case is it had to be in 2020 then they should have voided it months ago. not happy.
Perhaps he is trying to bring home to them the consequences of not having any deal at all. They have massively overplayed their hand in relation to fish.
I have been crystal clear from before the referendum that we wanted a deal with the EU but many of the reasons for doing so are now being lost. A deal in October would have allowed some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities such as trusted trader schemes, road testing customs schemes on the Ferries and in the tunnel, the development of technology to facilitate easy and prompt transport etc etc. A deal now has none of these advantages. We are left with chaos because of the way that this has been dragged out to the last minute and beyond. I am seriously getting to the point I think its just not worth it. If we are going to have chaos anyway, and this is now inevitable in the short term, sod it, enough.
Are you really suggesting that "disruption" is the only disadvantage of trading on WTO terms?
Surely if that was the case, countries wouldn't be falling over themselves to sign free-trade agreements with other countries.
No, I am not saying that. Tariff free trade is a good thing. But the sort of deal the EU wants has disbenefits as well as benefits and restricts us. The upside of such a deal in October would have outweighed that. The balance is becoming finer by the hour.
We import about £85bn more from the EU than we export in goods (we have a surplus on services that offsets that somewhat but it is unclear if this deal is going to allow that to continue). A 5% tariff nets the UK over £4bn a year. Its a thought.
£4bn a year paid by UK consumers? I'm not sure that's a benefit.
There would be a series of potential benefits. We would, at the margins buy less from the EU. Domestic producers would receive a boost. This would encourage some of the EU exporters to absorb some or all of the cost in reduced margins.
To be clear, I still don't want any of this. But I will certainly be exercising consumer choice in relation to EU products going forward. I expect the EU of our trade to fall quite sharply now, deal or no deal. There is some evidence that this is happening already although it is difficult to eliminate Covid distortions.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
No, as 2/3 of Tory MPs would still have voted for a Deal, as would his most likely replacement Rishi Sunak, so he would survive any confidence vote
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
No, as 2/3 of Tory MPs would still have voted for a Deal, as would his most likely replacement Rishi Sunak, so he would survive any confidence vote
There you go again, lies, damned lies and opinion polling. I didn't see Liz Truss's name on the list anywhere. I get my evidence from the vox-poppers of PB, and as of yesterday Liz Truss is saying what the woke-haters want to hear.
Anyway, whilst Sunak continues to give me and everyone else, free money, who can fault the guy?
I do not understand why because a no deal exit will take away their legal right to fish in UK waters altogether
But not permanently. They might think they can get better terms if the UK is negotiating from a position of not having a deal on anything.
Who is "they"? The trouble with fishing in particular is there is more than one "they". There's the EU who can settle on reduced access but then there is another "they" who are all the other fishing nations who have to accept reduced CFP quotas. That's the problem -- for fish, the immediate knock-on consequences for the other countries and their fleets means the EU has limited space to manoeuvre, whereas FoM, state aid and other level playing field provisions are more abstract.
A third "they" is France and lord knows what Macron is up to.
is the phase in period the length of time from uk getting 22% up to 100%, when EU boats have no access to UK waters, or the time to get from now to 22% or whatever figure they might agree?
I believe the UK are seeking 40% and a 3 year deal
how much do we get currently?
The EU are currently demanding 80% access to UK waters
just noticed skybet have voided my bets on Shaun Bailey to get most votes in London Mayor Election without Sadiq Khan. but cant find the small print of their rules to argue with them. if there case is it had to be in 2020 then they should have voided it months ago. not happy.
They voided my bets on the 2020 election surprisingly recently, so it might be they just got round to these.
The tests are not being done by the teaching staff and to be honest the idea they may have to work over the holidays when we are in the teeth of this crisis with millions of private sector employees losing their jobs is unacceptable
I really don't think you appreciate what a mess the government has made of organising this.
Gibb on R4 this morning was utterly clueless, and unable to provide and answers to detailed questions at all, and answered everything with "the country has decided that education is a priority". Schools had already started making arrangements for testing, which have now been scrapped. They won't get guidance on how this is supposed to work until next week.
At the moment, the tests are not being done by anyone.
And most school SLTs would have been working over the holidays anyway, Big_G. You are defending incompetence.
There is no formula for dealing with this crisis nor the enormity of it
The logistics are off the scale of anything we have seen since the last war and of course it is complex
The accusation of incompetence could be applied across all four nations and of course errors are being made but I very much doubt any authority or anyone else would be able to do much better
If the line is that this is all complicated and difficult, so we can't discuss the absurdity or otherwise of particular policies, then I can't see much point in arguing the matter.
Look at the queues either side of the border. No Deal is already in effect. Its possible that a deal may be agreed later to remove the chaos but no deal has already happened.
As various (we've had enough of) experts have been saying for years you cannot go up until the final day then agree a deal and implement it the following day. Trade doesn't work like that.
The border issues are also cobvid related but of course no deal has not happened yet but of course it could on the 1January
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
No, as 2/3 of Tory MPs would still have voted for a Deal, as would his most likely replacement Rishi Sunak, so he would survive any confidence vote
There you go again, lies, damned lies and opinion polling. I didn't see Liz Truss's name on the list anywhere. I get my evidence from the vox-poppers of PB, and as of yesterday Liz Truss is saying what the woke-haters want to hear.
Anyway, whilst Sunak continues to give me and everyone else, free money, who can fault the guy?
Truss has a Yougov rating of +12% positive but -15% negative, Sunak has a Yougov rating of +48% positive and -17% negative.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
Perhaps he is trying to bring home to them the consequences of not having any deal at all. They have massively overplayed their hand in relation to fish.
I have been crystal clear from before the referendum that we wanted a deal with the EU but many of the reasons for doing so are now being lost. A deal in October would have allowed some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities such as trusted trader schemes, road testing customs schemes on the Ferries and in the tunnel, the development of technology to facilitate easy and prompt transport etc etc. A deal now has none of these advantages. We are left with chaos because of the way that this has been dragged out to the last minute and beyond. I am seriously getting to the point I think its just not worth it. If we are going to have chaos anyway, and this is now inevitable in the short term, sod it, enough.
Are you really suggesting that "disruption" is the only disadvantage of trading on WTO terms?
Surely if that was the case, countries wouldn't be falling over themselves to sign free-trade agreements with other countries.
No, I am not saying that. Tariff free trade is a good thing. But the sort of deal the EU wants has disbenefits as well as benefits and restricts us. The upside of such a deal in October would have outweighed that. The balance is becoming finer by the hour.
We import about £85bn more from the EU than we export in goods (we have a surplus on services that offsets that somewhat but it is unclear if this deal is going to allow that to continue). A 5% tariff nets the UK over £4bn a year. Its a thought.
£4bn a year paid by UK consumers? I'm not sure that's a benefit.
There would be a series of potential benefits. We would, at the margins buy less from the EU. Domestic producers would receive a boost. This would encourage some of the EU exporters to absorb some or all of the cost in reduced margins.
To be clear, I still don't want any of this. But I will certainly be exercising consumer choice in relation to EU products going forward. I expect the EU of our trade to fall quite sharply now, deal or no deal. There is some evidence that this is happening already although it is difficult to eliminate Covid distortions.
Whilst you are right - those would be benefits - I'm not sure the "theory" will survive a brush with reality. I'm expecting some odd politically meaningful consequences, which nobody really considered, to affect the lives of everyday people. I don't think it will be quite as simple as to just "buy stuff from elsewhere" in the short term.
For example, people are not going to stop buying Mercedes and BMWs just because of a no-deal Brexit but they will be annoyed that they are potentially more expensive because of it. That has a political cost. The kind of people who buy these cars are not going to start happily buying British-built Nissans.
Plus he totally fluked 2016 and even that was with Putin's help. Joke figure. Means nothing. Stands for nothing. Just a warning of what can happen if a critical mass of voters get morally lax and intellectually lazy. I've made a big, life changing decision and it's only right and proper that I announce it here before I even tell my mum. I have cancelled Donald Trump and I'm moving on - apart from the occasional post like this one on the (I predict) rapidly diminishing number of threads where he's the topic. He's going to fade away now and what a relief it will be. Ok, other grisly figures will no doubt emerge to pitch for his hardcore fanbase, but this will not detract from the massive positive of not having to constantly see or hear or read about him. For over 4 years almost every single day has had this toxic bozo prominent in the news. "What did Trump say?" being the BBC template, followed by a regurgitation of whatever idiocy or hate-speech or lying bullshit he had chosen to emit that day. No longer, least not here in the UK. I often reach for the words of Martin Luther King on a Friday morning and I do so without hesitation here. Free at last, free at last.
You will miss him.
Like a boil on the bum, was my first instinctive response to that. But in fact maybe I will. Sometimes in our life, we all need somebody to hate on, sort of thing. It can be energizing. Where can I pour my vitriol now? If it stays unpoured it might be dangerous to my health.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall, nor can they be seen to back No Deal, Long Bailey was more Eurosceptic than Starmer so the only challenge would come from a diehard Remainer like Ben Bradshaw or David Lammy but that would be very unlikely to succeed and unlikely to happen anyway
Of course Labour can at least abstain on the deal. "We are not opposing this dreadful deal, only because we fear no deal would be even worse".
If Red Wallers are living off post-Brexit, post- Covid, food bank charity, they will not be voting for anyone who has their fingerprints all over Brexit.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Labour must support the deal, any deal, if the alternative is "no deal".
It is inconceivable Labour would abstain or vote against something of this magnitude
I can only presume that they have modelled hospital rates in January and decided that, much though they want to, keeping schools and Universities open over the next month risks exceeding capacity in several parts of the country. I think, sadly, that has been fairly obvious for at least a couple of weeks.
It has been obvious for weeks that ending term a week early was the sensible thing to do - and would have been far less disruptive to pupils' education than the mess we're likely to experience. It is of a part with the official obfuscation of how many students and teachers have been absent from school isolating.
My son's school breaks up today. They have had 5 children off with Covid and no teachers. They have managed this because they have been remarkably effective and efficient in enforcing bubbles, distancing and disinfection work. It has been seriously difficult involving a massive effort by the teachers and a highly imaginative use of the entire school estate. Older kids, such as my son, have been encouraged not to be in the school unless they have classes.
Last night they had their Christmas dance in 2 large tents that have been erected in the school playground. It was quite funny to watch with a distanced version of Scottish country dancing but it seems to have gone better than I would have expected.
So it could be done. I accept that they have more space than many schools and probably better staff/pupil ratios. But I really don't understand what has been happening in schools where a third of the roll seem to be "isolating".
Perhaps he is trying to bring home to them the consequences of not having any deal at all. They have massively overplayed their hand in relation to fish.
I have been crystal clear from before the referendum that we wanted a deal with the EU but many of the reasons for doing so are now being lost. A deal in October would have allowed some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities such as trusted trader schemes, road testing customs schemes on the Ferries and in the tunnel, the development of technology to facilitate easy and prompt transport etc etc. A deal now has none of these advantages. We are left with chaos because of the way that this has been dragged out to the last minute and beyond. I am seriously getting to the point I think its just not worth it. If we are going to have chaos anyway, and this is now inevitable in the short term, sod it, enough.
Are you really suggesting that "disruption" is the only disadvantage of trading on WTO terms?
Surely if that was the case, countries wouldn't be falling over themselves to sign free-trade agreements with other countries.
No, I am not saying that. Tariff free trade is a good thing. But the sort of deal the EU wants has disbenefits as well as benefits and restricts us. The upside of such a deal in October would have outweighed that. The balance is becoming finer by the hour.
We import about £85bn more from the EU than we export in goods (we have a surplus on services that offsets that somewhat but it is unclear if this deal is going to allow that to continue). A 5% tariff nets the UK over £4bn a year. Its a thought.
£4bn a year paid by UK consumers? I'm not sure that's a benefit.
There would be a series of potential benefits. We would, at the margins buy less from the EU. Domestic producers would receive a boost. This would encourage some of the EU exporters to absorb some or all of the cost in reduced margins.
To be clear, I still don't want any of this. But I will certainly be exercising consumer choice in relation to EU products going forward. I expect the EU of our trade to fall quite sharply now, deal or no deal. There is some evidence that this is happening already although it is difficult to eliminate Covid distortions.
Minette Batters (NFU) was on this morning, and all over potential to substitute fruit and veg imports - which is quite plausible.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall, nor can they be seen to back No Deal, Long Bailey was more Eurosceptic than Starmer so the only challenge would come from a diehard Remainer like Ben Bradshaw or David Lammy but that would be very unlikely to succeed and unlikely to happen anyway
Of course Labour can at least abstain on the deal. "We are not opposing this dreadful deal, only because we fear no deal would be even worse".
If Red Wallers are living off post-Brexit, post- Covid, food bank charity, they will not be voting for anyone who has their fingerprints all over Brexit.
If Labour abstains then Boris still gets his Deal through even with 100 Tory hardline Brexiteer rebels
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall [snip]
I'm not sure we know that for a fact.
We definitely don`t know that as a fact.
Brexit has already happened, let`s not forget, whether or not there is a trade deal.
If Starmer support a BINO trade deal, one that red-wallers and other leavers feel doesn`t take back control of our borders, our money and our laws blah blah, then Starmer would be wise to oppose it, and call Johnson out for trying to push through a BINO which does not honour the decision of the British people.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall, nor can they be seen to back No Deal, Long Bailey was more Eurosceptic than Starmer so the only challenge would come from a diehard Remainer like Ben Bradshaw or David Lammy but that would be very unlikely to succeed and unlikely to happen anyway
Of course Labour can at least abstain on the deal. "We are not opposing this dreadful deal, only because we fear no deal would be even worse".
If Red Wallers are living off post-Brexit, post- Covid, food bank charity, they will not be voting for anyone who has their fingerprints all over Brexit.
If Labour abstains then Boris still gets his Deal through even with 100 Tory hardline Brexiteer rebels
What are the long-term consequences for the unity of the Conservative Party if that happens though?
The tests are not being done by the teaching staff and to be honest the idea they may have to work over the holidays when we are in the teeth of this crisis with millions of private sector employees losing their jobs is unacceptable
I really don't think you appreciate what a mess the government has made of organising this.
Gibb on R4 this morning was utterly clueless, and unable to provide and answers to detailed questions at all, and answered everything with "the country has decided that education is a priority". Schools had already started making arrangements for testing, which have now been scrapped. They won't get guidance on how this is supposed to work until next week.
At the moment, the tests are not being done by anyone.
And most school SLTs would have been working over the holidays anyway, Big_G. You are defending incompetence.
There is no formula for dealing with this crisis nor the enormity of it
The logistics are off the scale of anything we have seen since the last war and of course it is complex
The accusation of incompetence could be applied across all four nations and of course errors are being made but I very much doubt any authority or anyone else would be able to do much better
Yes, it's a tough situation for a government; one might almost say a textbook example of "be careful what you wish for".
However, this testing plan didn't come out of nowhere yesterday afternoon- the DfE have presumably been working on it for a while. Yet the first official announcement was Thursday afternoon, when many schools were preparing to send their pupils skipping of into the holidays. (Schools were encouraged, by the government, to take today as a staff training day, to make the contact tracing in the runup to Christmas a bit less nightmarish). Schools now know that something is going to happen in early January, without clarity in how to do it, who is going to do it, or where it's going to be done.
Oh, and the DfE have suddenly gone from "schools MUST STAY FULLY OPEN or else" to putting several year groups into remote learning for a week.
My daughter's school put out a letter this morning. Superficially, it's polite, but I recognise calm teacher fury when I see it.
And doing better than the DfE would be easy. Communicate evolving thinking as it becomes established. Listen as much as you transmit. Give as much notice as possible. And don't dump a huge project on people on the last day of term.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall, nor can they be seen to back No Deal, Long Bailey was more Eurosceptic than Starmer so the only challenge would come from a diehard Remainer like Ben Bradshaw or David Lammy but that would be very unlikely to succeed and unlikely to happen anyway
Of course Labour can at least abstain on the deal. "We are not opposing this dreadful deal, only because we fear no deal would be even worse".
If Red Wallers are living off post-Brexit, post- Covid, food bank charity, they will not be voting for anyone who has their fingerprints all over Brexit.
If Labour abstains then Boris still gets his Deal through even with 100 Tory hardline Brexiteer rebels
That suits me fine. It's tacit Labour support but whilst wearing gloves. (No fingerprints).
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall, nor can they be seen to back No Deal, Long Bailey was more Eurosceptic than Starmer so the only challenge would come from a diehard Remainer like Ben Bradshaw or David Lammy but that would be very unlikely to succeed and unlikely to happen anyway
Of course Labour can at least abstain on the deal. "We are not opposing this dreadful deal, only because we fear no deal would be even worse".
If Red Wallers are living off post-Brexit, post- Covid, food bank charity, they will not be voting for anyone who has their fingerprints all over Brexit.
If Labour abstains then Boris still gets his Deal through even with 100 Tory hardline Brexiteer rebels
What are the long-term consequences for the unity of the Conservative Party if that happens though?
100 rebels is 27% of the PCP.
May survived a confidence vote even with 117 Tory MPs voting against her in December 2018 and as there are more Tory MPs now most of whom owe their seats to Boris a rebellion even on that scale would be a smaller percentage of the PCP than 27%
Perhaps he is trying to bring home to them the consequences of not having any deal at all. They have massively overplayed their hand in relation to fish.
I have been crystal clear from before the referendum that we wanted a deal with the EU but many of the reasons for doing so are now being lost. A deal in October would have allowed some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities such as trusted trader schemes, road testing customs schemes on the Ferries and in the tunnel, the development of technology to facilitate easy and prompt transport etc etc. A deal now has none of these advantages. We are left with chaos because of the way that this has been dragged out to the last minute and beyond. I am seriously getting to the point I think its just not worth it. If we are going to have chaos anyway, and this is now inevitable in the short term, sod it, enough.
Are you really suggesting that "disruption" is the only disadvantage of trading on WTO terms?
Surely if that was the case, countries wouldn't be falling over themselves to sign free-trade agreements with other countries.
No, I am not saying that. Tariff free trade is a good thing. But the sort of deal the EU wants has disbenefits as well as benefits and restricts us. The upside of such a deal in October would have outweighed that. The balance is becoming finer by the hour.
We import about £85bn more from the EU than we export in goods (we have a surplus on services that offsets that somewhat but it is unclear if this deal is going to allow that to continue). A 5% tariff nets the UK over £4bn a year. Its a thought.
£4bn a year paid by UK consumers? I'm not sure that's a benefit.
There would be a series of potential benefits. We would, at the margins buy less from the EU. Domestic producers would receive a boost. This would encourage some of the EU exporters to absorb some or all of the cost in reduced margins.
To be clear, I still don't want any of this. But I will certainly be exercising consumer choice in relation to EU products going forward. I expect the EU of our trade to fall quite sharply now, deal or no deal. There is some evidence that this is happening already although it is difficult to eliminate Covid distortions.
Whilst you are right - those would be benefits - I'm not sure the "theory" will survive a brush with reality. I'm expecting some odd politically meaningful consequences, which nobody really considered, to affect the lives of everyday people. I don't think it will be quite as simple as to just "buy stuff from elsewhere" in the short term.
For example, people are not going to stop buying Mercedes and BMWs just because of a no-deal Brexit but they will be annoyed that they are potentially more expensive because of it. That has a political cost. The kind of people who buy these cars are not going to start happily buying British-built Nissans.
I think people might well stop buying Mercedes and BMWs actually, especially if there is no deal. They can buy Jags or range rovers instead.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall, nor can they be seen to back No Deal, Long Bailey was more Eurosceptic than Starmer so the only challenge would come from a diehard Remainer like Ben Bradshaw or David Lammy but that would be very unlikely to succeed and unlikely to happen anyway
Of course Labour can at least abstain on the deal. "We are not opposing this dreadful deal, only because we fear no deal would be even worse".
If Red Wallers are living off post-Brexit, post- Covid, food bank charity, they will not be voting for anyone who has their fingerprints all over Brexit.
If Labour abstains then Boris still gets his Deal through even with 100 Tory hardline Brexiteer rebels
What are the long-term consequences for the unity of the Conservative Party if that happens though?
100 rebels is 27% of the PCP.
May survived a confidence vote even with 117 Tory MPs voting against her in December 2018 and as there are more Tory MPs now most of whom owe their seats to Boris a rebellion even on that scale would be a smaller percentage of the PCP than 27%
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Perhaps he is trying to bring home to them the consequences of not having any deal at all. They have massively overplayed their hand in relation to fish.
I have been crystal clear from before the referendum that we wanted a deal with the EU but many of the reasons for doing so are now being lost. A deal in October would have allowed some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities such as trusted trader schemes, road testing customs schemes on the Ferries and in the tunnel, the development of technology to facilitate easy and prompt transport etc etc. A deal now has none of these advantages. We are left with chaos because of the way that this has been dragged out to the last minute and beyond. I am seriously getting to the point I think its just not worth it. If we are going to have chaos anyway, and this is now inevitable in the short term, sod it, enough.
Are you really suggesting that "disruption" is the only disadvantage of trading on WTO terms?
Surely if that was the case, countries wouldn't be falling over themselves to sign free-trade agreements with other countries.
No, I am not saying that. Tariff free trade is a good thing. But the sort of deal the EU wants has disbenefits as well as benefits and restricts us. The upside of such a deal in October would have outweighed that. The balance is becoming finer by the hour.
We import about £85bn more from the EU than we export in goods (we have a surplus on services that offsets that somewhat but it is unclear if this deal is going to allow that to continue). A 5% tariff nets the UK over £4bn a year. Its a thought.
£4bn a year paid by UK consumers? I'm not sure that's a benefit.
There would be a series of potential benefits. We would, at the margins buy less from the EU. Domestic producers would receive a boost. This would encourage some of the EU exporters to absorb some or all of the cost in reduced margins.
To be clear, I still don't want any of this. But I will certainly be exercising consumer choice in relation to EU products going forward. I expect the EU of our trade to fall quite sharply now, deal or no deal. There is some evidence that this is happening already although it is difficult to eliminate Covid distortions.
Whilst you are right - those would be benefits - I'm not sure the "theory" will survive a brush with reality. I'm expecting some odd politically meaningful consequences, which nobody really considered, to affect the lives of everyday people. I don't think it will be quite as simple as to just "buy stuff from elsewhere" in the short term.
For example, people are not going to stop buying Mercedes and BMWs just because of a no-deal Brexit but they will be annoyed that they are potentially more expensive because of it. That has a political cost. The kind of people who buy these cars are not going to start happily buying British-built Nissans.
I think people might well stop buying Mercedes and BMWs actually, especially if there is no deal. They can buy Jags or range rovers instead.
You think? In my experience "car people", the kind of people who buy the higher-value German cars, do not like British built cars in the same way they don't like French cars.
Mark Drakeford has blamed 'selfish' behaviour by the public for forcing a fresh lockdown in Wales.
The Welsh First Minister insisted his 17-day firebreak at the end of October had worked but afterwards some people had acted like coronavirus was 'in the rear view mirror'.
He's right in the sense that people are utterly useless and don't follow the rules here but he's wrong because the lockdown was too short and he was wrong to end it.
Even going into Tiers wouldn't have worked, as England has proved.
His mistake was ending the lockdown at all, just as England made the mistake too.
So all in all it's a score draw.
Drakeford is incredibly unpopular on here, and I respect that, but he did make imo a decent speech to the nation a while back where he delivered the exact line I had long thought needed delivering and did it well. This being -
"When contemplating doing something do not simply ask yourself whether it is allowed under the rules, ask yourself whether you should be doing it."
This line is all over now - it's the bedrock of the new messaging approach to Christmas from Johnson & Co - and I think Drakeford was the trailblazer.
I do not understand why because a no deal exit will take away their legal right to fish in UK waters altogether
I guess they expect that the UK will still want a trade deal even in the event of "no deal" in January and in such circumstances the EU will have an even stronger hand.
Maybe they're wrong, maybe they're not.
They are playing with fire and their fisherman's livelihoods
A tiny, tiny fraction of the livelihoods that are at risk [edit] in all businesses by the pampering of a few offshire fishing skipper-owners who, I now suspect, are being set up as the scapegoats for a no deal.
Who are going to lose their exports anyway.
I'm really worried for the fishing industry as a whole, especially the Scottish inshore industry.
Apropos a recent discussion of the Stones, good pics; can almost smell that carpet. Still think Charlie is cooler than Mick, Keef & Brian put together (Bill was never cool, even before the 'unpleasantness')
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall, nor can they be seen to back No Deal, Long Bailey was more Eurosceptic than Starmer so the only challenge would come from a diehard Remainer like Ben Bradshaw or David Lammy but that would be very unlikely to succeed and unlikely to happen anyway
Of course Labour can at least abstain on the deal. "We are not opposing this dreadful deal, only because we fear no deal would be even worse".
If Red Wallers are living off post-Brexit, post- Covid, food bank charity, they will not be voting for anyone who has their fingerprints all over Brexit.
If Labour abstains then Boris still gets his Deal through even with 100 Tory hardline Brexiteer rebels
What are the long-term consequences for the unity of the Conservative Party if that happens though?
100 rebels is 27% of the PCP.
May survived a confidence vote even with 117 Tory MPs voting against her in December 2018 and as there are more Tory MPs now most of whom owe their seats to Boris a rebellion even on that scale would be a smaller percentage of the PCP than 27%
And yet May did not survive.
Only because she lost large numbers of votes to the Brexit Party for failing to deliver Brexit, Boris will have delivered Brexit with a Deal that leaves the Single Market and Customs Union and ends free movement etc.
May's main rival, Boris, was to her right, Boris' main potential rival for the leadership, Sunak is even more moderate than Boris is
The Yeman connection and the Marsden Grotto are both reasonable answers - and because of its location Shields has always been a bit no mans land. Football support has always been 50% Toon and 50% Sunderland / Stadium of Shite so a lot of people took exception to being called Geordies and the other half hated being called Maccams.
There seem to be a few general responses to that kind of information.
1) To argue about the definitions of working class to deny it (eg the 'true working class people still vote Labour' argument) 2) To lament how backward the working class are to dismiss it (eg the 'So we have to be racist and stupid to get working class support?' argument) 3) To ignore it as irrelevant (eg the 'we can win without them' argument) 4) To over worry about it (eg the 'My great grandfather dies in the mines and would be outraged by this' argument
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Labour must support the deal, any deal, if the alternative is "no deal".
It is inconceivable Labour would abstain or vote against something of this magnitude
Why? Oppositions oppose, although I suspect they will abstain rather than oppose.
We all wish the Conservatives had voted against the Iraq war with the benefit of hindsight.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall, nor can they be seen to back No Deal, Long Bailey was more Eurosceptic than Starmer so the only challenge would come from a diehard Remainer like Ben Bradshaw or David Lammy but that would be very unlikely to succeed and unlikely to happen anyway
Of course Labour can at least abstain on the deal. "We are not opposing this dreadful deal, only because we fear no deal would be even worse".
If Red Wallers are living off post-Brexit, post- Covid, food bank charity, they will not be voting for anyone who has their fingerprints all over Brexit.
If Labour abstains then Boris still gets his Deal through even with 100 Tory hardline Brexiteer rebels
What are the long-term consequences for the unity of the Conservative Party if that happens though?
100 rebels is 27% of the PCP.
May survived a confidence vote even with 117 Tory MPs voting against her in December 2018 and as there are more Tory MPs now most of whom owe their seats to Boris a rebellion even on that scale would be a smaller percentage of the PCP than 27%
And yet May did not survive.
Only because she lost large numbers of votes to the Brexit Party by failing to deliver Brexit, Boris will have delivered Brexit with a Deal that leaves the Single Market and Customs Union and ends free movement etc
You're making the mistake of using logic. Logic does not apply to Brexit zealots and their fans. "Brexit" will never be done in a satisfactory manner. There will always be a grievance.
I do not understand why because a no deal exit will take away their legal right to fish in UK waters altogether
I guess they expect that the UK will still want a trade deal even in the event of "no deal" in January and in such circumstances the EU will have an even stronger hand.
Maybe they're wrong, maybe they're not.
They are playing with fire and their fisherman's livelihoods
A tiny, tiny fraction of the livelihoods that are at risk [edit] in all businesses by the pampering of a few offshire fishing skipper-owners who, I now suspect, are being set up as the scapegoats for a no deal.
Who are going to lose their exports anyway.
I'm really worried for the fishing industry as a whole, especially the Scottish inshore industry.
I honestly think that they will have a boom period. Whatever the transition period is they will be catching way more fish going forward without increasing their fixed costs because their boats are tied up so many days a month at the moment. There is a large domestic and international market for that produce and they will have a lot more of it to sell.
Look at the queues either side of the border. No Deal is already in effect. Its possible that a deal may be agreed later to remove the chaos but no deal has already happened.
As various (we've had enough of) experts have been saying for years you cannot go up until the final day then agree a deal and implement it the following day. Trade doesn't work like that.
Except those queues are while we're still members of both the Single Market and Customs Union.
There have always been queues either side of the border, its nothing unprecedented. They've been worse before, they'll be worse again in the future.
The tests are not being done by the teaching staff and to be honest the idea they may have to work over the holidays when we are in the teeth of this crisis with millions of private sector employees losing their jobs is unacceptable
I really don't think you appreciate what a mess the government has made of organising this.
Gibb on R4 this morning was utterly clueless, and unable to provide and answers to detailed questions at all, and answered everything with "the country has decided that education is a priority". Schools had already started making arrangements for testing, which have now been scrapped. They won't get guidance on how this is supposed to work until next week.
At the moment, the tests are not being done by anyone.
And most school SLTs would have been working over the holidays anyway, Big_G. You are defending incompetence.
There is no formula for dealing with this crisis nor the enormity of it
The logistics are off the scale of anything we have seen since the last war and of course it is complex
The accusation of incompetence could be applied across all four nations and of course errors are being made but I very much doubt any authority or anyone else would be able to do much better
Yes, it's a tough situation for a government; one might almost say a textbook example of "be careful what you wish for".
However, this testing plan didn't come out of nowhere yesterday afternoon- the DfE have presumably been working on it for a while. Yet the first official announcement was Thursday afternoon, when many schools were preparing to send their pupils skipping of into the holidays. (Schools were encouraged, by the government, to take today as a staff training day, to make the contact tracing in the runup to Christmas a bit less nightmarish). Schools now know that something is going to happen in early January, without clarity in how to do it, who is going to do it, or where it's going to be done.
Oh, and the DfE have suddenly gone from "schools MUST STAY FULLY OPEN or else" to putting several year groups into remote learning for a week.
My daughter's school put out a letter this morning. Superficially, it's polite, but I recognise calm teacher fury when I see it.
And doing better than the DfE would be easy. Communicate evolving thinking as it becomes established. Listen as much as you transmit. Give as much notice as possible. And don't dump a huge project on people on the last day of term.
It's been obvious for months that mass testing as a means of controlling infection spread is a sensible idea. Way too much rhetoric and way too little planning from this administration.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
No, as 2/3 of Tory MPs would still have voted for a Deal, as would his most likely replacement Rishi Sunak, so he would survive any confidence vote
Sunak? Keep up, Liz Truss is the future!
She's no Benny Hill, though, and Sunak even less so. Neither can be visualized chasing housewives on a milk float.
I think you're onto something with that btw. No kidding.
I do not understand why because a no deal exit will take away their legal right to fish in UK waters altogether
I guess they expect that the UK will still want a trade deal even in the event of "no deal" in January and in such circumstances the EU will have an even stronger hand.
Maybe they're wrong, maybe they're not.
They are playing with fire and their fisherman's livelihoods
A tiny, tiny fraction of the livelihoods that are at risk [edit] in all businesses by the pampering of a few offshire fishing skipper-owners who, I now suspect, are being set up as the scapegoats for a no deal.
Who are going to lose their exports anyway.
I'm really worried for the fishing industry as a whole, especially the Scottish inshore industry.
I honestly think that they will have a boom period. Whatever the transition period is they will be catching way more fish going forward without increasing their fixed costs because their boats are tied up so many days a month at the moment. There is a large domestic and international market for that produce and they will have a lot more of it to sell.
I hope so too - but no consolation for the collateral damage aka unemployed in other industries.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall, nor can they be seen to back No Deal, Long Bailey was more Eurosceptic than Starmer so the only challenge would come from a diehard Remainer like Ben Bradshaw or David Lammy but that would be very unlikely to succeed and unlikely to happen anyway
Of course Labour can at least abstain on the deal. "We are not opposing this dreadful deal, only because we fear no deal would be even worse".
If Red Wallers are living off post-Brexit, post- Covid, food bank charity, they will not be voting for anyone who has their fingerprints all over Brexit.
If Labour abstains then Boris still gets his Deal through even with 100 Tory hardline Brexiteer rebels
What are the long-term consequences for the unity of the Conservative Party if that happens though?
100 rebels is 27% of the PCP.
May survived a confidence vote even with 117 Tory MPs voting against her in December 2018 and as there are more Tory MPs now most of whom owe their seats to Boris a rebellion even on that scale would be a smaller percentage of the PCP than 27%
And yet May did not survive.
Only because she lost large numbers of votes to the Brexit Party by failing to deliver Brexit, Boris will have delivered Brexit with a Deal that leaves the Single Market and Customs Union and ends free movement etc
You're making the mistake of using logic. Logic does not apply to Brexit zealots and their fans. "Brexit" will never be done in a satisfactory manner. There will always be a grievance.
Yes but the Brexit Party vote after a Boris Deal having delivered Brexit would be 5% or less, under May after she failed to deliver Brexit it was over 20%
I can only presume that they have modelled hospital rates in January and decided that, much though they want to, keeping schools and Universities open over the next month risks exceeding capacity in several parts of the country. I think, sadly, that has been fairly obvious for at least a couple of weeks.
It has been obvious for weeks that ending term a week early was the sensible thing to do - and would have been far less disruptive to pupils' education than the mess we're likely to experience. It is of a part with the official obfuscation of how many students and teachers have been absent from school isolating.
My son's school breaks up today. They have had 5 children off with Covid and no teachers. They have managed this because they have been remarkably effective and efficient in enforcing bubbles, distancing and disinfection work. It has been seriously difficult involving a massive effort by the teachers and a highly imaginative use of the entire school estate. Older kids, such as my son, have been encouraged not to be in the school unless they have classes.
Last night they had their Christmas dance in 2 large tents that have been erected in the school playground. It was quite funny to watch with a distanced version of Scottish country dancing but it seems to have gone better than I would have expected.
So it could be done. I accept that they have more space than many schools and probably better staff/pupil ratios. But I really don't understand what has been happening in schools where a third of the roll seem to be "isolating".
What has been happening? Covid, of course. At my son's school, each year group has been considered to be a bubble, and the bubbles have been kept apart as far as is possible. Isolated Covid cases have been addressed by sending home anyone who sat near to or was friends with the pupil in question, while multiple cases have meant sending home the whole year group. This is all in accordance with government guidelines, and has resulted in roughly 1/3 of the pupils being absent at any one time. My lad is very lucky to have been one of the few that hasn't had to miss any school at all this term.
Frankly, I am in awe at the efforts that the school has gone to in order to provide as good an education as possible under the circumstances.
Perhaps he is trying to bring home to them the consequences of not having any deal at all. They have massively overplayed their hand in relation to fish.
I have been crystal clear from before the referendum that we wanted a deal with the EU but many of the reasons for doing so are now being lost. A deal in October would have allowed some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities such as trusted trader schemes, road testing customs schemes on the Ferries and in the tunnel, the development of technology to facilitate easy and prompt transport etc etc. A deal now has none of these advantages. We are left with chaos because of the way that this has been dragged out to the last minute and beyond. I am seriously getting to the point I think its just not worth it. If we are going to have chaos anyway, and this is now inevitable in the short term, sod it, enough.
Are you really suggesting that "disruption" is the only disadvantage of trading on WTO terms?
Surely if that was the case, countries wouldn't be falling over themselves to sign free-trade agreements with other countries.
No, I am not saying that. Tariff free trade is a good thing. But the sort of deal the EU wants has disbenefits as well as benefits and restricts us. The upside of such a deal in October would have outweighed that. The balance is becoming finer by the hour.
We import about £85bn more from the EU than we export in goods (we have a surplus on services that offsets that somewhat but it is unclear if this deal is going to allow that to continue). A 5% tariff nets the UK over £4bn a year. Its a thought.
£4bn a year paid by UK consumers? I'm not sure that's a benefit.
There would be a series of potential benefits. We would, at the margins buy less from the EU. Domestic producers would receive a boost. This would encourage some of the EU exporters to absorb some or all of the cost in reduced margins.
To be clear, I still don't want any of this. But I will certainly be exercising consumer choice in relation to EU products going forward. I expect the EU of our trade to fall quite sharply now, deal or no deal. There is some evidence that this is happening already although it is difficult to eliminate Covid distortions.
Whilst you are right - those would be benefits - I'm not sure the "theory" will survive a brush with reality. I'm expecting some odd politically meaningful consequences, which nobody really considered, to affect the lives of everyday people. I don't think it will be quite as simple as to just "buy stuff from elsewhere" in the short term.
For example, people are not going to stop buying Mercedes and BMWs just because of a no-deal Brexit but they will be annoyed that they are potentially more expensive because of it. That has a political cost. The kind of people who buy these cars are not going to start happily buying British-built Nissans.
I think people might well stop buying Mercedes and BMWs actually, especially if there is no deal. They can buy Jags or range rovers instead.
You think? In my experience "car people", the kind of people who buy the higher-value German cars, do not like British built cars in the same way they don't like French cars.
Labour has recovered some of the Brexit base, I wonder how much they recover from the Tories/BXP if they vote for a Brexit deal and/or Brexit is perceived to be finished.
We discuss complicated reasons for voting Tory but frankly I think it's quite simple: Corbyn and being anti-Brexit.
Those two are removed and the polls revert to a tie, which is basically what we saw post 2017.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Why? Labour cannot oppose the Deal and win back the Red Wall, nor can they be seen to back No Deal, Long Bailey was more Eurosceptic than Starmer so the only challenge would come from a diehard Remainer like Ben Bradshaw or David Lammy but that would be very unlikely to succeed and unlikely to happen anyway
Of course Labour can at least abstain on the deal. "We are not opposing this dreadful deal, only because we fear no deal would be even worse".
If Red Wallers are living off post-Brexit, post- Covid, food bank charity, they will not be voting for anyone who has their fingerprints all over Brexit.
If Labour abstains then Boris still gets his Deal through even with 100 Tory hardline Brexiteer rebels
What are the long-term consequences for the unity of the Conservative Party if that happens though?
100 rebels is 27% of the PCP.
May survived a confidence vote even with 117 Tory MPs voting against her in December 2018 and as there are more Tory MPs now most of whom owe their seats to Boris a rebellion even on that scale would be a smaller percentage of the PCP than 27%
And yet May did not survive.
Only because she lost large numbers of votes to the Brexit Party by failing to deliver Brexit, Boris will have delivered Brexit with a Deal that leaves the Single Market and Customs Union and ends free movement etc
You're making the mistake of using logic. Logic does not apply to Brexit zealots and their fans. "Brexit" will never be done in a satisfactory manner. There will always be a grievance.
Jesus if a third lockdown is on the cards for England cancel the damn Christmas easing!!!!
Ordinary people are way ahead of politicians. While the latter spend untold billions obsessing about harmless corona cases in young kids, voters are starting to focus on the almost unimaginable tsunami of debt that is building up as a a result of these policy responses.
And voters know where the almost unsupportable bill for that debt is headed. A gargantuan tax raid on an already beleaguered economy.
No wonder crypto currency prices are heading for the moon and beyond. Quick, hide it, or spend it, before the government takes it all.
Pence got his jab....bloody queue jumper... that's the correct criticism right?
I don't know why people who are jabbed are mentioning that it didn't hurt/didn't feel a thing. That's the sort of thing you reassure a child about, but I'd have thought anti-vaxxers (in general, or about this vaccine program) are not so much concerned with the pain of any jab.
It's your arm feeling sore a day or so later that makes you feel like a baby, in my experience.
I can only presume that they have modelled hospital rates in January and decided that, much though they want to, keeping schools and Universities open over the next month risks exceeding capacity in several parts of the country. I think, sadly, that has been fairly obvious for at least a couple of weeks.
It has been obvious for weeks that ending term a week early was the sensible thing to do - and would have been far less disruptive to pupils' education than the mess we're likely to experience. It is of a part with the official obfuscation of how many students and teachers have been absent from school isolating.
My son's school breaks up today. They have had 5 children off with Covid and no teachers. They have managed this because they have been remarkably effective and efficient in enforcing bubbles, distancing and disinfection work. It has been seriously difficult involving a massive effort by the teachers and a highly imaginative use of the entire school estate. Older kids, such as my son, have been encouraged not to be in the school unless they have classes.
Last night they had their Christmas dance in 2 large tents that have been erected in the school playground. It was quite funny to watch with a distanced version of Scottish country dancing but it seems to have gone better than I would have expected.
So it could be done. I accept that they have more space than many schools and probably better staff/pupil ratios. But I really don't understand what has been happening in schools where a third of the roll seem to be "isolating".
What has been happening? Covid, of course. At my son's school, each year group has been considered to be a bubble, and the bubbles have been kept apart as far as is possible. Isolated Covid cases have been addressed by sending home anyone who sat near to or was friends with the pupil in question, while multiple cases have meant sending home the whole year group. This is all in accordance with government guidelines, and has resulted in roughly 1/3 of the pupils being absent at any one time. My lad is very lucky to be one of the few that hasn't had to miss any school at all this term.
Frankly, I am in awe at the efforts that the school has gone to in order to provide as good an education as possible under the circumstances.
I share your admiration but isn't it weird that the level of disruption/lost schooling has varied so widely? No doubt there is an element of luck but some have done much, much better than others.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
Yep. Absolutely no question about it. Surely almost nobody is still taking the "big differences remain, could be no deal" hype seriously.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
No, as 2/3 of Tory MPs would still have voted for a Deal, as would his most likely replacement Rishi Sunak, so he would survive any confidence vote
Sunak? Keep up, Liz Truss is the future!
She's no Benny Hill, though, and Sunak even less so. Neither can be visualized chasing housewives on a milk float.
I think you're onto something with that btw. No kidding.
Have you not noticed the Fred Scuttle salute, gait, posture, clothing fit, and hair?
I can only presume that they have modelled hospital rates in January and decided that, much though they want to, keeping schools and Universities open over the next month risks exceeding capacity in several parts of the country. I think, sadly, that has been fairly obvious for at least a couple of weeks.
It has been obvious for weeks that ending term a week early was the sensible thing to do - and would have been far less disruptive to pupils' education than the mess we're likely to experience. It is of a part with the official obfuscation of how many students and teachers have been absent from school isolating.
My son's school breaks up today. They have had 5 children off with Covid and no teachers. They have managed this because they have been remarkably effective and efficient in enforcing bubbles, distancing and disinfection work. It has been seriously difficult involving a massive effort by the teachers and a highly imaginative use of the entire school estate. Older kids, such as my son, have been encouraged not to be in the school unless they have classes.
Last night they had their Christmas dance in 2 large tents that have been erected in the school playground. It was quite funny to watch with a distanced version of Scottish country dancing but it seems to have gone better than I would have expected.
So it could be done. I accept that they have more space than many schools and probably better staff/pupil ratios. But I really don't understand what has been happening in schools where a third of the roll seem to be "isolating".
What has been happening? Covid, of course. At my son's school, each year group has been considered to be a bubble, and the bubbles have been kept apart as far as is possible. Isolated Covid cases have been addressed by sending home anyone who sat near to or was friends with the pupil in question, while multiple cases have meant sending home the whole year group. This is all in accordance with government guidelines, and has resulted in roughly 1/3 of the pupils being absent at any one time. My lad is very lucky to be one of the few that hasn't had to miss any school at all this term.
Frankly, I am in awe at the efforts that the school has gone to in order to provide as good an education as possible under the circumstances.
I share your admiration but isn't it weird that the level of disruption/lost schooling has varied so widely? No doubt there is an element of luck but some have done much, much better than others.
It doesn't seem that weird, given the variation in the prevalence of Covid across the country and factors such as private schools having more space and a higher teacher-to-pupil ratio than state schools.
That's who they are scared of. They know that labour is going nowhere in the seats that matter. How could they be when they are against the deportation of serious foreign criminals?
I read somewhere that the bill for a month of lockdown is about equal to the entire budget of the NHS for a year.
Why not spend the money on the latter, rather than the former?
Not on any meaning of "bill", I am aware of. Gov't spending will be about £200 to 250bn to higher this year due to COVID, meaning it is only slightly higher for the year as NHS spending (£150bn).
That's who they are scared of. They know that labour is going nowhere in the seats that matter. How could they be when they are against the deportation of serious foreign criminals?
According to polling Labour is making progress in all the areas it needs to.
I can only presume that they have modelled hospital rates in January and decided that, much though they want to, keeping schools and Universities open over the next month risks exceeding capacity in several parts of the country. I think, sadly, that has been fairly obvious for at least a couple of weeks.
It has been obvious for weeks that ending term a week early was the sensible thing to do - and would have been far less disruptive to pupils' education than the mess we're likely to experience. It is of a part with the official obfuscation of how many students and teachers have been absent from school isolating.
My son's school breaks up today. They have had 5 children off with Covid and no teachers. They have managed this because they have been remarkably effective and efficient in enforcing bubbles, distancing and disinfection work. It has been seriously difficult involving a massive effort by the teachers and a highly imaginative use of the entire school estate. Older kids, such as my son, have been encouraged not to be in the school unless they have classes.
Last night they had their Christmas dance in 2 large tents that have been erected in the school playground. It was quite funny to watch with a distanced version of Scottish country dancing but it seems to have gone better than I would have expected.
So it could be done. I accept that they have more space than many schools and probably better staff/pupil ratios. But I really don't understand what has been happening in schools where a third of the roll seem to be "isolating".
What has been happening? Covid, of course. At my son's school, each year group has been considered to be a bubble, and the bubbles have been kept apart as far as is possible. Isolated Covid cases have been addressed by sending home anyone who sat near to or was friends with the pupil in question, while multiple cases have meant sending home the whole year group. This is all in accordance with government guidelines, and has resulted in roughly 1/3 of the pupils being absent at any one time. My lad is very lucky to be one of the few that hasn't had to miss any school at all this term.
Frankly, I am in awe at the efforts that the school has gone to in order to provide as good an education as possible under the circumstances.
I share your admiration but isn't it weird that the level of disruption/lost schooling has varied so widely? No doubt there is an element of luck but some have done much, much better than others.
Not really. Class sizes, crowding of premises, rate of Covid in the area, demographics of student body etc are massive variables. Of course school management can make a difference, but it is probably not the most significant variable.
Nearly a quarter of a million residents in the suburbs of the Australian city of Sydney have been told to remain in their homes for at least the next three days after a cluster of new Covid-19 cases rose to 28.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Labour must support the deal, any deal, if the alternative is "no deal".
I can't see how no deal lasts very long - it simply won't work. The bear trap for Labour is simple. I know that there are (as a local example) plenty of NE voters who support Brexit for the long-term benefits it will bring to Nissan. When Nissan announce it is closing due to Brexit those same Brexit supporting punters will be angry with everyone who lied to them and didn't protect them from the lies.
Saying Labour must vote for a deal that only cuts one leg off as its preferable to cutting off both legs is pretty desperate.
Hollie Doyle has suddenly been backed to 2nd favourite for SPoTY this Sunday. She's a female horse rider who is doubtless impressive, but the smart money earlier this week had her as a significant outsider. For one thing, women tend to get hammered at SPoTY. I've laid on all 3 Betfair markets, a bit on her not to win, some on not to win w/o Hamilton (the big favourite, also a decent bet just backing him now), and some on her not Top 3.
I read somewhere that the bill for a month of lockdown is about equal to the entire budget of the NHS for a year.
Why not spend the money on the latter, rather than the former?
Not on any meaning of "bill", I am aware of. Gov't spending will be about £200 to 250bn to higher this year due to COVID, meaning it is only slightly higher for the year as NHS spending (£150bn).
The deficit is forecast to be GBP400bn for the fiscal to April.
That's probably a conservative number with a new lockdown coming in January, now.
We are spending not far from half a trillion pounds more than we earn A YEAR.
closing that gap, 'without putting a strain on the NHS'. I dare you. I double dare you.
That's who they are scared of. They know that labour is going nowhere in the seats that matter. How could they be when they are against the deportation of serious foreign criminals?
It's surely true that fear of Farage is pushing the Tories towards no deal if they cannot get a deal that won't be interpreted as caving to Brussels. We only get a deal if the EU will concede enough ground for Boris to plausibly paint it as a victory which, to me, still seems unlikely. IMO, most likely is no deal, closely followed by a deal in which Boris is able to trumpet a victory on fish while keeping quiet about LPF and governance concessions.
Comments
To be clear, I still don't want any of this. But I will certainly be exercising consumer choice in relation to EU products going forward. I expect the EU of our trade to fall quite sharply now, deal or no deal. There is some evidence that this is happening already although it is difficult to eliminate Covid distortions.
Anyway, whilst Sunak continues to give me and everyone else, free money, who can fault the guy?
A third "they" is France and lord knows what Macron is up to.
https://twitter.com/Madz_Grant/status/1339916755515400193
Get on with it!
1) Does not rule out
2) Has no plans to yet
3) Would really not want to
4) Ok, will do it
@ydoethur may well feel differently.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Liz_Truss
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
For example, people are not going to stop buying Mercedes and BMWs just because of a no-deal Brexit but they will be annoyed that they are potentially more expensive because of it. That has a political cost. The kind of people who buy these cars are not going to start happily buying British-built Nissans.
If Red Wallers are living off post-Brexit, post- Covid, food bank charity, they will not be voting for anyone who has their fingerprints all over Brexit.
Last night they had their Christmas dance in 2 large tents that have been erected in the school playground. It was quite funny to watch with a distanced version of Scottish country dancing but it seems to have gone better than I would have expected.
So it could be done. I accept that they have more space than many schools and probably better staff/pupil ratios. But I really don't understand what has been happening in schools where a third of the roll seem to be "isolating".
Brexit has already happened, let`s not forget, whether or not there is a trade deal.
If Starmer support a BINO trade deal, one that red-wallers and other leavers feel doesn`t take back control of our borders, our money and our laws blah blah, then Starmer would be wise to oppose it, and call Johnson out for trying to push through a BINO which does not honour the decision of the British people.
He should judge the trade deal on it`s merits.
100 rebels is 27% of the PCP.
However, this testing plan didn't come out of nowhere yesterday afternoon- the DfE have presumably been working on it for a while. Yet the first official announcement was Thursday afternoon, when many schools were preparing to send their pupils skipping of into the holidays. (Schools were encouraged, by the government, to take today as a staff training day, to make the contact tracing in the runup to Christmas a bit less nightmarish). Schools now know that something is going to happen in early January, without clarity in how to do it, who is going to do it, or where it's going to be done.
Oh, and the DfE have suddenly gone from "schools MUST STAY FULLY OPEN or else" to putting several year groups into remote learning for a week.
My daughter's school put out a letter this morning. Superficially, it's polite, but I recognise calm teacher fury when I see it.
And doing better than the DfE would be easy. Communicate evolving thinking as it becomes established. Listen as much as you transmit. Give as much notice as possible. And don't dump a huge project on people on the last day of term.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandancer
The Tories don't get blamed for Iraq, this will be exactly the same.
"When contemplating doing something do not simply ask yourself whether it is allowed under the rules, ask yourself whether you should be doing it."
This line is all over now - it's the bedrock of the new messaging approach to Christmas from Johnson & Co - and I think Drakeford was the trailblazer.
Who are going to lose their exports anyway.
I'm really worried for the fishing industry as a whole, especially the Scottish inshore industry.
https://twitter.com/LostGlasgow/status/1339919252095201281?s=20
May's main rival, Boris, was to her right, Boris' main potential rival for the leadership, Sunak is even more moderate than Boris is
The Yeman connection and the Marsden Grotto are both reasonable answers - and because of its location Shields has always been a bit no mans land. Football support has always been 50% Toon and 50% Sunderland / Stadium of Shite so a lot of people took exception to being called Geordies and the other half hated being called Maccams.
1) To argue about the definitions of working class to deny it (eg the 'true working class people still vote Labour' argument)
2) To lament how backward the working class are to dismiss it (eg the 'So we have to be racist and stupid to get working class support?' argument)
3) To ignore it as irrelevant (eg the 'we can win without them' argument)
4) To over worry about it (eg the 'My great grandfather dies in the mines and would be outraged by this' argument
We all wish the Conservatives had voted against the Iraq war with the benefit of hindsight.
There have always been queues either side of the border, its nothing unprecedented. They've been worse before, they'll be worse again in the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-TNf8W5X38
Way too much rhetoric and way too little planning from this administration.
I think you're onto something with that btw. No kidding.
Frankly, I am in awe at the efforts that the school has gone to in order to provide as good an education as possible under the circumstances.
We discuss complicated reasons for voting Tory but frankly I think it's quite simple: Corbyn and being anti-Brexit.
Those two are removed and the polls revert to a tie, which is basically what we saw post 2017.
Most Brexit voters are not "zealots".
And voters know where the almost unsupportable bill for that debt is headed. A gargantuan tax raid on an already beleaguered economy.
No wonder crypto currency prices are heading for the moon and beyond. Quick, hide it, or spend it, before the government takes it all.
It's your arm feeling sore a day or so later that makes you feel like a baby, in my experience.
P.S. I never thought I would ever class Pence as a positive role model!
Why not spend the money on the latter, rather than the former?
Tonight Matthew, I am Benny Hill!
That's who they are scared of. They know that labour is going nowhere in the seats that matter. How could they be when they are against the deportation of serious foreign criminals?
Labour must support a second lockdown now.
Lockdown. Now.
The Christmas easing is insane, this must go down as Black Wednesday for any Government partaking in it.
Class sizes, crowding of premises, rate of Covid in the area, demographics of student body etc are massive variables.
Of course school management can make a difference, but it is probably not the most significant variable.
Nearly a quarter of a million residents in the suburbs of the Australian city of Sydney have been told to remain in their homes for at least the next three days after a cluster of new Covid-19 cases rose to 28.
Saying Labour must vote for a deal that only cuts one leg off as its preferable to cutting off both legs is pretty desperate.
Hollie Doyle has suddenly been backed to 2nd favourite for SPoTY this Sunday. She's a female horse rider who is doubtless impressive, but the smart money earlier this week had her as a significant outsider. For one thing, women tend to get hammered at SPoTY. I've laid on all 3 Betfair markets, a bit on her not to win, some on not to win w/o Hamilton (the big favourite, also a decent bet just backing him now), and some on her not Top 3.
I assume not, in which case the question becomes: is the vaccine`s efficacy reduced for someone whose system is already battling a covid infection?
That's probably a conservative number with a new lockdown coming in January, now.
We are spending not far from half a trillion pounds more than we earn A YEAR.
closing that gap, 'without putting a strain on the NHS'. I dare you. I double dare you.
Liz Truss for PM please!