Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
2020
2012
That is $100 000 household income a year, not a great deal more than average in the US in terms of household income and an income plenty of skilled white tradesmen will achieve as a household income, remember 'Joe the Plumber'?
Amongst upper middle class professional voters earning more than $200 000 a year household income Trump did far worse than Romney however
Listening to Obama's memoirs on R4, he is talking about meeting Merkel and Brown early in his first term. Amazing how long Merkel has been in power, while we have enjoyed Brown, Cameron, May and the clown.
Lasting 10 years in a genuine democracy is very impressive. Even if your party is dominant not being ousted in that time is not easy. Lasting as long as she has well beyond that is a huge achievement
If there were people to replace her she would have stepped down already. In the same way Thatcher did a few years too much, eventually the pymgies will take you down.
You can lay Brian Rose to win the 2021 London Mayoral Election at 7, or even lower if you are lucky (I just got a bunch matched at 6.4). It's an insane price, akin to the YangGang fervour last year but perhaps even weirder. Who are his enthusiastic backers? Unlike Yang he isn't even getting an impressive amount of media coverage for an outsider or anything like that.
The market is thin, but if you leave money up it is getting matched at around 7, many thousands have been matched so far.
Or you could just take the 1.25 or so available on Khan to win. Almost as safe and another 10% profit or so. I've got a bit on that too, but it's definitely another step away from 'Banker' compared to laying Rose.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
It is true, whenever I am down the pub I'm always hearing fellow drinkers complaining about the influence of Foucault on the education system in the 1980s. People talk of nothing else.
Actually, in the pubs I reckon you drink in, that probably not far from the truth
@Philip_Thompson you missed the discussion yesterday I think, we were talking about commuting to work and I remember you had some great ideas about cycling
In fairness he wasn't impeached. That was an absurd effort by the Democrats that did them and US democracy no good whatsoever.
Both of the major parties really need to start thinking of US democracy as something to be nurtured rather than manipulated and abused. If they don't the system is going to become ever more unstable.
This conservative line that Trump's impeachment was an abuse of democracy is absurd. It's a constitutionally mandated process that was eminently justified.
The issue is that it seems abundantly clear that Trump has committed 'high crimes and misdemeanors' and that he was impeached because the Democrats hate him and that he was acquitted because Republicans loved/feared him.
The process may be constitutionally mandated but it has been completed degraded and discredited by politicisation.
If Trump had committed high crimes and misdemeanours, why should it matter what Dems feel about him? Pretty sure that their loathing of Trump wasn’t any greater than that of Dems towards Nixon.
Boy who cried wolf syndrome.
Yes there was a wolf in the end, but Dem voters were banging on about impeachment since November 2016 before Trump was even inaugurated.
Trump was such a polarising figure that it didn't matter if he committed high crimes and misdemeanors or not - Dems wanted him impeached regardless of the facts, Republicans wanted him acquitted regardless of them.
Fingsaintwottheyusedtobe-ism doesn't just apply to a golden age when the limpid stream of English thought wasn't tainted by garlicky Gallic philosophy, it also applies to visions of past politics unsullied by low cunning and prejudice. There's always been partisanship, mutual loathing and some form of a culture war.
If you want evidence that the deranged and/or corrupt right has always been with us, the recent tv series Mrs America and a Sky documentary this week on Roy Cohn provides oodles of it.
There is so little money in London Mayoral market outside Khan, it wouldn't take much money from Rose himself to move his odds. The classic tactic that record companies used to use to boost their artists back in the day, where they would dispatch people to buy who records, so they could announce their artist is selling like hotcakes, which gets people interested and buying.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
2020
2012
That is $100 000 household income a year, not a great deal more than average in the US in terms of household income and an income plenty of skilled white tradesmen will achieve as a household income, remember 'Joe the Plumber'?
Amongst upper middle class professional voters earning more than $200 000 a year household income Trump did far worse than Romney however
The proportions in each category are shown in the graphic - did you miss that?
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
2020
2012
That is $100 000 household income a year, not a great deal more than average in the US in terms of household income and an income plenty of skilled white tradesmen will achieve as a household income, remember 'Joe the Plumber'?
Amongst upper middle class professional voters earning more than $200 000 a year household income Trump did far worse than Romney however
The median household income was $68,703 in 2019. So $100,000 would be a good 45% higher than the median.
You can lay Brian Rose to win the 2021 London Mayoral Election at 7, or even lower if you are lucky (I just got a bunch matched at 6.4). It's an insane price, akin to the YangGang fervour last year but perhaps even weirder. Who are his enthusiastic backers? Unlike Yang he isn't even getting an impressive amount of media coverage for an outsider or anything like that.
The market is thin, but if you leave money up it is getting matched at around 7, many thousands have been matched so far.
Or you could just take the 1.25 or so available on Khan to win. Almost as safe and another 10% profit or so. I've got a bit on that too, but it's definitely another step away from 'Banker' compared to laying Rose.
Election might be delayed again? But otherwise - great tip - many thanks.
You can lay Brian Rose to win the 2021 London Mayoral Election at 7, or even lower if you are lucky (I just got a bunch matched at 6.4). It's an insane price, akin to the YangGang fervour last year but perhaps even weirder. Who are his enthusiastic backers? Unlike Yang he isn't even getting an impressive amount of media coverage for an outsider or anything like that.
The market is thin, but if you leave money up it is getting matched at around 7, many thousands have been matched so far.
Or you could just take the 1.25 or so available on Khan to win. Almost as safe and another 10% profit or so. I've got a bit on that too, but it's definitely another step away from 'Banker' compared to laying Rose.
Now in to 6.0
Was thinking about boycotting Betfair with the way they mishandled the POTUS market. Between this and Trump still being 1.06 for a 2021 exit, that's over before it even begun.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
2020
2012
That is $100 000 household income a year, not a great deal more than average in the US in terms of household income and an income plenty of skilled white tradesmen will achieve as a household income, remember 'Joe the Plumber'?
Amongst upper middle class professional voters earning more than $200 000 a year household income Trump did far worse than Romney however
The median household income was $68,703 in 2019. So $100,000 would be a good 45% higher than the median.
Hy doesnt read the stuff he so quickly pastes into his own posts, clearly
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
Anyone sensible and ambitious who can see what awaits Bozo in 2021 would be setting themselves up as an alternative right now. It will be extremely ugly.
You can lay Brian Rose to win the 2021 London Mayoral Election at 7, or even lower if you are lucky (I just got a bunch matched at 6.4). It's an insane price, akin to the YangGang fervour last year but perhaps even weirder. Who are his enthusiastic backers? Unlike Yang he isn't even getting an impressive amount of media coverage for an outsider or anything like that.
The market is thin, but if you leave money up it is getting matched at around 7, many thousands have been matched so far.
Or you could just take the 1.25 or so available on Khan to win. Almost as safe and another 10% profit or so. I've got a bit on that too, but it's definitely another step away from 'Banker' compared to laying Rose.
I bet that verge is going to be covered in bottles of golden liquid which is definitely not Irn Bru. Don’t open those fast food boxes whatever you do..
No deal is here. We may fudge a last second deal which gets ratified at some later point, but no deal is already in effect.
The massive queues are as traffic ramps up to avoid tariffs. This week is demonstrating to the country what the industry already knew and has been highlighting - that customs checks and the current UK / EU traffic are simply incompatible.
As soon as we tip into 2021 the number of vehicles will drop significantly with the processing time per truck increasing significantly. The awkward problem being that we need the stuff that comes on trucks, but as soon as we try and ship it the border comes to a stop. If we don't trade the border delays may only be in single digit hours as opposed to the days it will be otherwise.
So we will adapt. 🤷🏻♂️
Life finds a way to adapt.
I wonder if regional inequality might be addressed if trade no longer occurs narrowly through a South East tunnel and is diversified across ports like Liverpool, Portsmouth etc too.
Regional inequality reduced by everyone being poorer, just the South East being proportionally more poorer?
I thought you guys opposed such things. Socialism and all that.
If we lower the Common External Tariff so that we aren't protecting trade with little Europe over the global trade then we can improve our livelihoods not lower them.
Mr. eek, I remember hearing somewhere that Perez had something lined up for 2022.
Rumours are it's with Williams. So Perez to Williams in 2022, Russell to Merc, Bottas out. Gives a new seat for Red Bull for the new Japanse driver if he's good enough, or Albon to come back if he's heads on right (or gasly to then step up).
I have to assume that Latifi comes with sponsor money as Sirotkin did as I can't think of any other reason Williams would keep him for 2021. What F1 needs badly is more teams - there aren't enough cars on the grid. I hope that the cost-cutting agreements will shave the top off the sillier spenders at the top and give other people a way in.
Final F1 comments before I go back to my monster spreadsheet of death. Alonso bombing around in that Renault R25 on tyres it wasn't designed for after 15 years as a museum exhibit and going quicker than today's cars were going. As various drivers / principles have commented it makes you wonder about the directions that F1 has decided to go since the V10 days. Yes we need new fuel efficient cars but do they have to be fatter heavier and lumpen with it?
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
It is true, whenever I am down the pub I'm always hearing fellow drinkers complaining about the influence of Foucault on the education system in the 1980s. People talk of nothing else.
Actually, in the pubs I reckon you drink in, that probably not far from the truth
A planning application for a 250 acre opencast mine for the extraction of 800,000 tons of coal and 400,000 tons of fireclay is probably going to be rejected by Newcastle City Council today. A pity.
Good. No need for coal energy in this country. It's polluting and the leading cause of climate change.
There's different types of coal though isn't there?
Coal for burning absolutely is antiquated.
Coal for steel is different and still needed though isn't it?
No idea which this one is but there's a future usage I believe for the right types of coal even in a net zero future.
As I understand it the coal is to be used to make steel for.....er.......windfarms.
Its almost as if Maoist 20-year plans have horrendous unforeseen downsides.
What's wrong with that in your eyes? 🤔
Producing steel for long term energy production is a far superior usage of coal than merely burning it for electricity.
What's wrong with it is it that Zero 2050 is a Great Leap Forward Maoist target. Burning coal for steel is just one example of how when you have these, everything, and in particular inconvenient truth, gets completely and utterly ignored in pursuit of the goal. Destroying forests to grow biofuels is another example of this
Frank Dikotter's 'Mao's Great Famine' and Jung Chang's 'Mao, the Unknown Story' are instructive in this respect. Conservative politicians should know these books by rote.
The idea that adopting clean energy is Maoist is preposterous absurd nonsense.
And you've still not said what you object to about producing steel? Steel is valuable. I have no qualms with steel being produced, what is your objection to it?
We aren't destroying forests for biofuel in this country. That is a silly suggestion.
A planning application for a 250 acre opencast mine for the extraction of 800,000 tons of coal and 400,000 tons of fireclay is probably going to be rejected by Newcastle City Council today. A pity.
Good. No need for coal energy in this country. It's polluting and the leading cause of climate change.
There's different types of coal though isn't there?
Coal for burning absolutely is antiquated.
Coal for steel is different and still needed though isn't it?
No idea which this one is but there's a future usage I believe for the right types of coal even in a net zero future.
As I understand it the coal is to be used to make steel for.....er.......windfarms.
Its almost as if Maoist 20-year plans have horrendous unforeseen downsides.
What's wrong with that in your eyes? 🤔
Producing steel for long term energy production is a far superior usage of coal than merely burning it for electricity.
What's wrong with it is it that Zero 2050 is a Great Leap Forward Maoist target. Burning coal for steel is just one example of how when you have these, everything, and in particular inconvenient truth, gets completely and utterly ignored in pursuit of the goal. Destroying forests to grow biofuels is another example of this
Frank Dikotter's 'Mao's Great Famine' and Jung Chang's 'Mao, the Unknown Story' are instructive in this respect. Conservative politicians should know these books by rote.
The idea that adopting clean energy is Maoist is preposterous absurd nonsense.
And you've still not said what you object to about producing steel? Steel is valuable. I have no qualms with steel being produced, what is your objection to it?
We aren't destroying forests for biofuel in this country. That is a silly suggestion.
There is a site that manufactures bricks 5 minutes down the road from this proposed opencast mine.
I can't think of a more "green" method of manufacturing than that.
Plus he totally fluked 2016 and even that was with Putin's help. Joke figure. Means nothing. Stands for nothing. Just a warning of what can happen if a critical mass of voters get morally lax and intellectually lazy. I've made a big, life changing decision and it's only right and proper that I announce it here before I even tell my mum. I have cancelled Donald Trump and I'm moving on - apart from the occasional post like this one on the (I predict) rapidly diminishing number of threads where he's the topic. He's going to fade away now and what a relief it will be. Ok, other grisly figures will no doubt emerge to pitch for his hardcore fanbase, but this will not detract from the massive positive of not having to constantly see or hear or read about him. For over 4 years almost every single day has had this toxic bozo prominent in the news. "What did Trump say?" being the BBC template, followed by a regurgitation of whatever idiocy or hate-speech or lying bullshit he had chosen to emit that day. No longer, least not here in the UK. I often reach for the words of Martin Luther King on a Friday morning and I do so without hesitation here. Free at last, free at last.
You can lay Brian Rose to win the 2021 London Mayoral Election at 7, or even lower if you are lucky (I just got a bunch matched at 6.4). It's an insane price, akin to the YangGang fervour last year but perhaps even weirder. Who are his enthusiastic backers? Unlike Yang he isn't even getting an impressive amount of media coverage for an outsider or anything like that.
The market is thin, but if you leave money up it is getting matched at around 7, many thousands have been matched so far.
Or you could just take the 1.25 or so available on Khan to win. Almost as safe and another 10% profit or so. I've got a bit on that too, but it's definitely another step away from 'Banker' compared to laying Rose.
I've not watched The Mandalorian yet. Is it family friendly?
Thinking of watching it over the Christmas holidays with my children if it is. Watched the original trilogy with them in the summer, it didn't hold the four year olds attention but the six year old really liked Yoda and has seen pictures of 'baby Yoda' and says 'baby Yoda' is "so cute".
Might like Chewbacca's son too. Highly unlikely as Episode IV and a half The Holiday Special is utterly shite. I think the cartoon in the middle introducing Bobba Fett is the only vaguely redeeming part. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xSkC4PUsTw
Mr. eek, I remember hearing somewhere that Perez had something lined up for 2022.
Rumours are it's with Williams. So Perez to Williams in 2022, Russell to Merc, Bottas out. Gives a new seat for Red Bull for the new Japanse driver if he's good enough, or Albon to come back if he's heads on right (or gasly to then step up).
I have to assume that Latifi comes with sponsor money as Sirotkin did as I can't think of any other reason Williams would keep him for 2021. What F1 needs badly is more teams - there aren't enough cars on the grid. I hope that the cost-cutting agreements will shave the top off the sillier spenders at the top and give other people a way in.
Final F1 comments before I go back to my monster spreadsheet of death. Alonso bombing around in that Renault R25 on tyres it wasn't designed for after 15 years as a museum exhibit and going quicker than today's cars were going. As various drivers / principles have commented it makes you wonder about the directions that F1 has decided to go since the V10 days. Yes we need new fuel efficient cars but do they have to be fatter heavier and lumpen with it?
Was it going quicker? I thought I saw reports saying it was lapping several seconds slower, but it just felt quicker.
In fairness he wasn't impeached. That was an absurd effort by the Democrats that did them and US democracy no good whatsoever.
Both of the major parties really need to start thinking of US democracy as something to be nurtured rather than manipulated and abused. If they don't the system is going to become ever more unstable.
This conservative line that Trump's impeachment was an abuse of democracy is absurd. It's a constitutionally mandated process that was eminently justified.
The issue is that it seems abundantly clear that Trump has committed 'high crimes and misdemeanors' and that he was impeached because the Democrats hate him and that he was acquitted because Republicans loved/feared him.
The process may be constitutionally mandated but it has been completed degraded and discredited by politicisation.
If Trump had committed high crimes and misdemeanours, why should it matter what Dems feel about him? Pretty sure that their loathing of Trump wasn’t any greater than that of Dems towards Nixon.
Boy who cried wolf syndrome.
Yes there was a wolf in the end, but Dem voters were banging on about impeachment since November 2016 before Trump was even inaugurated.
Trump was such a polarising figure that it didn't matter if he committed high crimes and misdemeanors or not - Dems wanted him impeached regardless of the facts, Republicans wanted him acquitted regardless of them.
Fingsaintwottheyusedtobe-ism doesn't just apply to a golden age when the limpid stream of English thought wasn't tainted by garlicky Gallic philosophy, it also applies to visions of past politics unsullied by low cunning and prejudice. There's always been partisanship, mutual loathing and some form of a culture war.
If you want evidence that the deranged and/or corrupt right has always been with us, the recent tv series Mrs America and a Sky documentary this week on Roy Cohn provides oodles of it.
Not just right. There's derangement and corruption aplenty on both sides. Good people call out their own side as much as the opposition.
One key flaw of the US Constitution though is it was written without partisan politics in mind. Our Constitution has evolved and adapted to work with partisans but theirs was written with some idealised notions and then inevitably within a few years partisanship took over. But the "checks and balances" were already written and many have not evolved since.
Nothing new there, Johnson's popularity amongst the working public comes as no surprise. Benny Hill, on whom Johnson bases his "Boris" character was of course the peoples' celebrity throughout the 1970s.
Nothing new there, Johnson's popularity amongst the working public comes as no surprise. Benny Hill, on whom Johnson bases his "Boris" character was of course the peoples' celebrity throughout the 1970s.
Current polling would suggest that Johnson is losing many of the voters he gained in 2019, not Corbyn has been a strong pull for Labour
Mr. eek, I remember hearing somewhere that Perez had something lined up for 2022.
Rumours are it's with Williams. So Perez to Williams in 2022, Russell to Merc, Bottas out. Gives a new seat for Red Bull for the new Japanse driver if he's good enough, or Albon to come back if he's heads on right (or gasly to then step up).
I have to assume that Latifi comes with sponsor money as Sirotkin did as I can't think of any other reason Williams would keep him for 2021. What F1 needs badly is more teams - there aren't enough cars on the grid. I hope that the cost-cutting agreements will shave the top off the sillier spenders at the top and give other people a way in.
Final F1 comments before I go back to my monster spreadsheet of death. Alonso bombing around in that Renault R25 on tyres it wasn't designed for after 15 years as a museum exhibit and going quicker than today's cars were going. As various drivers / principles have commented it makes you wonder about the directions that F1 has decided to go since the V10 days. Yes we need new fuel efficient cars but do they have to be fatter heavier and lumpen with it?
Was it going quicker? I thought I saw reports saying it was lapping several seconds slower, but it just felt quicker.
It was ultimately faster than the race laps of the modern cars (in a race where they all used the hard tyres in preservation mode) but slower than the qualifying times of the 2020 cars.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
2020
2012
In 2012 Romney won 52% of voters earning $200 000 - $249 999 and Romney won 55% of voters earning over $250 000.
In 2020 Trump could only tie Biden with voters earning over $200 000 at 44% each.
In 2012 Romney won 51% of graduates but only 48% of high school only graduates and just 35% of non high school graduates.
In 2020 Trump won just 47% of graduates but won 54% of those with only a high school or less education and Trump won only 48% of white college graduates but Trump won 67% of whites with no college degree.
So my point was absolutely right, the GOP coalition has shifted to white voters without a college degree.
I think you're partly right but it's exaggerated. A few points:
1. This is not all about Trump - it's also the comparator. Romney was a very traditional GOP candidate who could have been sent by central casting for high earning moderates - no intention of shaking up the system, and would cut taxes.
2. The extreme expression of your argument just isn't right - although Trump made inroads with non-college educated voters, the Republican base continues to be relatively wealthy. Similarly in the UK, the red wall broke not because Johnson "won" the working class vote in an absolute sense but that he kept the voters of posh parts of Bolsover (of which there are plenty) and did less badly than previous Tories in parts that used to provide a Labour block vote. It's a subtle difference but an important one - it's an important shift but not a "flipping" of party roles as happened with the strange death of Southern Democrats/Northern Republicans.
3. There appears to have been some reversion to the mean in 2020 compared with 2016. Interestingly, for all the talk of Trump alienating women and ethnic minority voters, the biggest pro-Biden shifts were among white men (both college and non-college educated) and slightly less well off voters. That's partly low base, and partly that Clinton did very well among black voters (the Clinton brand remains very strong) and very poorly among men. But the 2020 vote was more "normal" than 2016 in many ways. I'd suggest this is partly because, for all Trump's personal eccentricities, he governed as a somewhat traditional, "old Republican" in some respects - tax cuts and social conservatism. In 2016 you could project what you wanted on him - many new GOP voters predicted he'd be quite socially liberal and prioritise tax breaks for less well off, but they were disappointed.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
Yes, a denunciation of Foucault is always guaranteed to appeal to the WWC.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Mr. eek, I remember hearing somewhere that Perez had something lined up for 2022.
Rumours are it's with Williams. So Perez to Williams in 2022, Russell to Merc, Bottas out. Gives a new seat for Red Bull for the new Japanse driver if he's good enough, or Albon to come back if he's heads on right (or gasly to then step up).
I have to assume that Latifi comes with sponsor money as Sirotkin did as I can't think of any other reason Williams would keep him for 2021. What F1 needs badly is more teams - there aren't enough cars on the grid. I hope that the cost-cutting agreements will shave the top off the sillier spenders at the top and give other people a way in.
Final F1 comments before I go back to my monster spreadsheet of death. Alonso bombing around in that Renault R25 on tyres it wasn't designed for after 15 years as a museum exhibit and going quicker than today's cars were going. As various drivers / principles have commented it makes you wonder about the directions that F1 has decided to go since the V10 days. Yes we need new fuel efficient cars but do they have to be fatter heavier and lumpen with it?
Was it going quicker? I thought I saw reports saying it was lapping several seconds slower, but it just felt quicker.
It was ultimately faster than the race laps of the modern cars (in a race where they all used the hard tyres in preservation mode) but slower than the qualifying times of the 2020 cars.
Made one hell of a noise though!
Yeah, the noise, smaller size, and agility made it seem far faster. Just checked - fastest lap was about 4 seconds off of pole and a second and a half behind Latifi in the final Williams; I think qualifying would be a better comparison. Especially as Alonso needed a cool-off lap immediately after setting his fastest lap.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
Yes, a denunciation of Foucault is always guaranteed to appeal to the WWC.
Tea break at medical school interviews. Am ensuring every candidate has a thorough knowledge of Foucalt and modern trends in Critical Theory. Indeed demonstrating asymmetric power dynamics again shortly...
You can lay Brian Rose to win the 2021 London Mayoral Election at 7, or even lower if you are lucky (I just got a bunch matched at 6.4). It's an insane price, akin to the YangGang fervour last year but perhaps even weirder. Who are his enthusiastic backers? Unlike Yang he isn't even getting an impressive amount of media coverage for an outsider or anything like that.
The market is thin, but if you leave money up it is getting matched at around 7, many thousands have been matched so far.
Or you could just take the 1.25 or so available on Khan to win. Almost as safe and another 10% profit or so. I've got a bit on that too, but it's definitely another step away from 'Banker' compared to laying Rose.
Now in to 6.0
I've taken it all. Sorry
No need to apologise, I won't pretend that I didn't fill up on all I was willing to risk before posting it here. I averaged 6.95 though, so nicely done.
In fairness he wasn't impeached. That was an absurd effort by the Democrats that did them and US democracy no good whatsoever.
Both of the major parties really need to start thinking of US democracy as something to be nurtured rather than manipulated and abused. If they don't the system is going to become ever more unstable.
Trump should have been impeached on the evidence but the Senate is hyperpartisan these days. If Nixon were still with us, he'd have wondered about the injustice of it all.
Trump technically was impeached.
Nixon technically was not.
There’s no “technically” about it. He was impeached. Full stop. Impeachment is just the referring by the House to the Senate for trial.
He wasn’t convicted.
That's what technically means. He was impeached.
But people (mistakenly) use the term to mean removed from office. That didn't happen. It has never happened via the impeachment process.
That didn't happen with Trump, either, so either way your formulation was wrong.
Mr. eek, I remember hearing somewhere that Perez had something lined up for 2022.
Rumours are it's with Williams. So Perez to Williams in 2022, Russell to Merc, Bottas out. Gives a new seat for Red Bull for the new Japanse driver if he's good enough, or Albon to come back if he's heads on right (or gasly to then step up).
Or Perez when he wins the championship for them next year...
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
Yes, a denunciation of Foucault is always guaranteed to appeal to the WWC.
Tea break at medical school interviews. Am ensuring every candidate has a thorough knowledge of Foucalt and modern trends in Critical Theory. Indeed demonstrating asymmetric power dynamics again shortly...
One of Foucault's seminal works is 'A History of Madness'.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
Yes, a denunciation of Foucault is always guaranteed to appeal to the WWC.
As they take out their copy of Intellectual Impostures and join in the mockery.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
It is true, whenever I am down the pub I'm always hearing fellow drinkers complaining about the influence of Foucault on the education system in the 1980s. People talk of nothing else.
Actually, in the pubs I reckon you drink in, that probably not far from the truth
I didn't realise Easter Road has got so fancy.
Do you suppose they debate Bourdieu in the pubs down Gorgie Road?
In fairness he wasn't impeached. That was an absurd effort by the Democrats that did them and US democracy no good whatsoever.
Both of the major parties really need to start thinking of US democracy as something to be nurtured rather than manipulated and abused. If they don't the system is going to become ever more unstable.
Trump should have been impeached on the evidence but the Senate is hyperpartisan these days. If Nixon were still with us, he'd have wondered about the injustice of it all.
Trump technically was impeached.
Nixon technically was not.
There’s no “technically” about it. He was impeached. Full stop. Impeachment is just the referring by the House to the Senate for trial.
He wasn’t convicted.
That's what technically means. He was impeached.
But people (mistakenly) use the term to mean removed from office. That didn't happen. It has never happened via the impeachment process.
That didn't happen with Trump, either, so either way your formulation was wrong.
What are you talking about?
My formulation was right.
He was technically impeached. He wasn't removed from office if that is what you mistakenly mean by impeachment (no President has ever been removed via impeachment) but technically he was impeached.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Thanks. Useful info. I would have used the like button but that doesn't seem right.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
In fairness he wasn't impeached. That was an absurd effort by the Democrats that did them and US democracy no good whatsoever.
Both of the major parties really need to start thinking of US democracy as something to be nurtured rather than manipulated and abused. If they don't the system is going to become ever more unstable.
This conservative line that Trump's impeachment was an abuse of democracy is absurd. It's a constitutionally mandated process that was eminently justified.
The issue is that it seems abundantly clear that Trump has committed 'high crimes and misdemeanors' and that he was impeached because the Democrats hate him and that he was acquitted because Republicans loved/feared him.
The process may be constitutionally mandated but it has been completed degraded and discredited by politicisation.
If Trump had committed high crimes and misdemeanours, why should it matter what Dems feel about him? Pretty sure that their loathing of Trump wasn’t any greater than that of Dems towards Nixon.
Boy who cried wolf syndrome.
Yes there was a wolf in the end, but Dem voters were banging on about impeachment since November 2016 before Trump was even inaugurated.
Trump was such a polarising figure that it didn't matter if he committed high crimes and misdemeanors or not - Dems wanted him impeached regardless of the facts, Republicans wanted him acquitted regardless of them.
Fingsaintwottheyusedtobe-ism doesn't just apply to a golden age when the limpid stream of English thought wasn't tainted by garlicky Gallic philosophy, it also applies to visions of past politics unsullied by low cunning and prejudice. There's always been partisanship, mutual loathing and some form of a culture war.
If you want evidence that the deranged and/or corrupt right has always been with us, the recent tv series Mrs America and a Sky documentary this week on Roy Cohn provides oodles of it.
Not just right. There's derangement and corruption aplenty on both sides. Good people call out their own side as much as the opposition.
One key flaw of the US Constitution though is it was written without partisan politics in mind. Our Constitution has evolved and adapted to work with partisans but theirs was written with some idealised notions and then inevitably within a few years partisanship took over. But the "checks and balances" were already written and many have not evolved since.
The US has been extremely partisan in the past, indeed they had a civil war in the 19th century ! The electoral count act of 1887 is a useful safeguard against Pence pulling off the same nonsense that happened in 1876.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Any stats on immunity after one jab?
Yes. The Pfizer statistics show almost 100% immunity from ten days after the first jab.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Very handy, thanks.
I like that you can change the settings as well.
Give it a week or two and I'll be ticking "morbid obesity" as an u/l health condition.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Any stats on immunity after one jab?
Yes. The Pfizer statistics show almost 100% immunity from ten days after the first jab.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
It is true, whenever I am down the pub I'm always hearing fellow drinkers complaining about the influence of Foucault on the education system in the 1980s. People talk of nothing else.
Actually, in the pubs I reckon you drink in, that probably not far from the truth
I didn't realise Easter Road has got so fancy.
Do you suppose they debate Bourdieu in the pubs down Gorgie Road?
I had taken that as a given.
To be fair, there are actually a fair few places on Easter that are probably hotbeds of Continental Philosophy.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Based on your profile, there are between 27,132,105 and 38,844,493 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK. 📅 Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 26/06/2021 and 16/09/2021.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Any stats on immunity after one jab?
Yes. The Pfizer statistics show almost 100% immunity from ten days after the first jab.
Thanks! And I suppose it's cumulative.
Hard to tell. The data shows an almost flatline of next to no COVID infections coming from ten days after the first jab. The ~5% of infections come almost all in the first ten days after the jab (and may even refer to people infected before they got the jab but didn't know about it).
Whether the second jab is even necessary or not isn't really known since there's no data on people who didn't get the second jab.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
It is true, whenever I am down the pub I'm always hearing fellow drinkers complaining about the influence of Foucault on the education system in the 1980s. People talk of nothing else.
Actually, in the pubs I reckon you drink in, that probably not far from the truth
I didn't realise Easter Road has got so fancy.
Do you suppose they debate Bourdieu in the pubs down Gorgie Road?
I had taken that as a given.
To be fair, there are actually a fair few places on Easter that are probably hotbeds of Continental Philosophy.
I had rather assumed the Gorgie denizens, given their view of the Easter Road habitues, would go more for the Common Sense Realism school ...
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Any stats on immunity after one jab?
Yes. The Pfizer statistics show almost 100% immunity from ten days after the first jab.
Thanks! And I suppose it's cumulative.
Hard to tell. The data shows an almost flatline of next to no COVID infections coming from ten days after the first jab. The ~5% of infections come almost all in the first ten days after the jab (and may even refer to people infected before they got the jab but didn't know about it).
Whether the second jab is even necessary or not isn't really known since there's no data on people who didn't get the second jab.
Thanks. One to ask Tim Harford but I suspect he and his panel of experts will say what you have.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Interesting. Even though I'm a fair way down the priority list, I was surprised at how soon I might get the jab, if the assumptions are right. I hope they can achieve 1m a week (and get enough of the vaccines to do that).
Based on your profile, there are between 9,926,645 and 12,305,865 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK.
Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 25/02/2021 and 14/03/2021.
Mr. eek, I remember hearing somewhere that Perez had something lined up for 2022.
Rumours are it's with Williams. So Perez to Williams in 2022, Russell to Merc, Bottas out. Gives a new seat for Red Bull for the new Japanse driver if he's good enough, or Albon to come back if he's heads on right (or gasly to then step up).
I have to assume that Latifi comes with sponsor money as Sirotkin did as I can't think of any other reason Williams would keep him for 2021. What F1 needs badly is more teams - there aren't enough cars on the grid. I hope that the cost-cutting agreements will shave the top off the sillier spenders at the top and give other people a way in.
Final F1 comments before I go back to my monster spreadsheet of death. Alonso bombing around in that Renault R25 on tyres it wasn't designed for after 15 years as a museum exhibit and going quicker than today's cars were going. As various drivers / principles have commented it makes you wonder about the directions that F1 has decided to go since the V10 days. Yes we need new fuel efficient cars but do they have to be fatter heavier and lumpen with it?
Was it going quicker? I thought I saw reports saying it was lapping several seconds slower, but it just felt quicker.
It was ultimately faster than the race laps of the modern cars (in a race where they all used the hard tyres in preservation mode) but slower than the qualifying times of the 2020 cars.
Made one hell of a noise though!
Yeah, the noise, smaller size, and agility made it seem far faster. Just checked - fastest lap was about 4 seconds off of pole and a second and a half behind Latifi in the final Williams; I think qualifying would be a better comparison. Especially as Alonso needed a cool-off lap immediately after setting his fastest lap.
The size difference is very noticeable.
Part of that, though, is for safety improvements rather than power-plant tech.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
It is true, whenever I am down the pub I'm always hearing fellow drinkers complaining about the influence of Foucault on the education system in the 1980s. People talk of nothing else.
Actually, in the pubs I reckon you drink in, that probably not far from the truth
I didn't realise Easter Road has got so fancy.
Do you suppose they debate Bourdieu in the pubs down Gorgie Road?
I had taken that as a given.
To be fair, there are actually a fair few places on Easter that are probably hotbeds of Continental Philosophy.
You cannae throw a rock on Great Western Rd without hitting a Jags fan with a volume of Sartre peeping out the pocket of their French railwayman's jacket. You also have the added bonus of having hit them with a rock.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
2020
2012
In 2012 Romney won 52% of voters earning $200 000 - $249 999 and Romney won 55% of voters earning over $250 000.
In 2020 Trump could only tie Biden with voters earning over $200 000 at 44% each.
In 2012 Romney won 51% of graduates but only 48% of high school only graduates and just 35% of non high school graduates.
In 2020 Trump won just 47% of graduates but won 54% of those with only a high school or less education and Trump won only 48% of white college graduates but Trump won 67% of whites with no college degree.
So my point was absolutely right, the GOP coalition has shifted to white voters without a college degree.
I think you're partly right but it's exaggerated. A few points:
1. This is not all about Trump - it's also the comparator. Romney was a very traditional GOP candidate who could have been sent by central casting for high earning moderates - no intention of shaking up the system, and would cut taxes.
2. The extreme expression of your argument just isn't right - although Trump made inroads with non-college educated voters, the Republican base continues to be relatively wealthy. Similarly in the UK, the red wall broke not because Johnson "won" the working class vote in an absolute sense but that he kept the voters of posh parts of Bolsover (of which there are plenty) and did less badly than previous Tories in parts that used to provide a Labour block vote. It's a subtle difference but an important one - it's an important shift but not a "flipping" of party roles as happened with the strange death of Southern Democrats/Northern Republicans.
3. There appears to have been some reversion to the mean in 2020 compared with 2016. Interestingly, for all the talk of Trump alienating women and ethnic minority voters, the biggest pro-Biden shifts were among white men (both college and non-college educated) and slightly less well off voters. That's partly low base, and partly that Clinton did very well among black voters (the Clinton brand remains very strong) and very poorly among men. But the 2020 vote was more "normal" than 2016 in many ways. I'd suggest this is partly because, for all Trump's personal eccentricities, he governed as a somewhat traditional, "old Republican" in some respects - tax cuts and social conservatism. In 2016 you could project what you wanted on him - many new GOP voters predicted he'd be quite socially liberal and prioritise tax breaks for less well off, but they were disappointed.
Agree on 1, same with Cameron here.
2 I don't disagree on average the Tories and Republicans still tend to win wealthy voters, even if by less than Cameron and Romney did but my point was more about education than income eg a high earning non graduate voter will be more likely to vote Tory or GOP now still than a low earning graduate who will likely still be a Labour or Democratic voter.
3 Biden made his biggest gains amongst middle income earners yes and eroded Trump's lead with non college educated white men, though Trump still won them convincingly, which was why he was the best Democratic candidate in terms of beating Trump and did narrowly manage to do so.
However it should be pointed out Trump did better with the poorest voters earning under $30 000 than he did in 2016 and with African Americans too, for them I suspect issues like law and order were paramount rather than economics and immigration would have been an issue for low income whites
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Based on your profile, there are between 27,132,105 and 38,844,493 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK. 📅 Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 26/06/2021 and 16/09/2021.
Mine was between 12/05/2021 and 03/06/2021. What is better news is that my Mum who is in her late 70s should get it late January. That will remove almost all of the personal concerns I have.
I see the Telegraph is promoting Tier 1 Isle of Wight as "Your next staycation destination".
Have a pleasant holiday and kill other people's deadwood grannies rather than your own, win win.
One-time friend of mine owned a pharmacy on Wight. Got into trouble with the NHS, basically because he thought he was cleverer than anyone else about the NHS contract. I was acting as an advisor to people in his position then and he asked for my help. Took a good look at his 'defence' and advised him to plead guilty and apologise. He refused my advice (and didn't pay me) defended himself, got fined the maximum and eventually struck off.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Very handy, thanks.
I like that you can change the settings as well.
Still no notification about mine!
My wife is between 22nd Dec and 18th Jan and I am between 18th Jan and 29th Jan
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
2020
2012
That is $100 000 household income a year, not a great deal more than average in the US in terms of household income and an income plenty of skilled white tradesmen will achieve as a household income, remember 'Joe the Plumber'?
Amongst upper middle class professional voters earning more than $200 000 a year household income Trump did far worse than Romney however
The median household income was $68,703 in 2019. So $100,000 would be a good 45% higher than the median.
26% of US voters have a household income over $100 000 so earning that much gives you an above average income but it does not make you rich.
Only 7% of US voters have a household income over $200 000 however, so earning more than $200 000 means you have reached a level to be counted as rich
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Very handy, thanks.
I like that you can change the settings as well.
Still no notification about mine!
My wife is between 22nd Dec and 18th Jan and I am between 18th Jan and 29th Jan
We await patiently
Big G like everything else in the NHS you need to sharpen your elbows. Call them and push if you haven't heard a date by now.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Interesting. Even though I'm a fair way down the priority list, I was surprised at how soon I might get the jab, if the assumptions are right. I hope they can achieve 1m a week (and get enough of the vaccines to do that).
Based on your profile, there are between 9,926,645 and 12,305,865 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK.
Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 25/02/2021 and 14/03/2021.
I see the Telegraph is promoting Tier 1 Isle of Wight as "Your next staycation destination".
Have a pleasant holiday and kill other people's deadwood grannies rather than your own, win win.
One-time friend of mine owned a pharmacy on Wight. Got into trouble with the NHS, basically because he thought he was cleverer than anyone else about the NHS contract. I was acting as an advisor to people in his position then and he asked for my help. Took a good look at his 'defence' and advised him to plead guilty and apologise. He refused my advice (and didn't pay me) defended himself, got fined the maximum and eventually struck off.
If it were ever in doubt, I will always take the OKC advice
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
It is true, whenever I am down the pub I'm always hearing fellow drinkers complaining about the influence of Foucault on the education system in the 1980s. People talk of nothing else.
Actually, in the pubs I reckon you drink in, that probably not far from the truth
I didn't realise Easter Road has got so fancy.
Do you suppose they debate Bourdieu in the pubs down Gorgie Road?
I had taken that as a given.
To be fair, there are actually a fair few places on Easter that are probably hotbeds of Continental Philosophy.
You cannae throw a rock on Great Western Rd without hitting a Jags fan with a volume of Sartre peeping out the pocket of their French railwayman's jacket. You also have the added bonus of having hit them with a rock.
It'll be an added bonus for them too, since they know that they cannot escape anguish, for they are anguish.
Mark Drakeford has blamed 'selfish' behaviour by the public for forcing a fresh lockdown in Wales.
The Welsh First Minister insisted his 17-day firebreak at the end of October had worked but afterwards some people had acted like coronavirus was 'in the rear view mirror'.
The calculator which @Foxy pointed us to assumes that the take-up rate of the vaccine will be the same as that of the flu jab (70.6%). That strikes me as unlikely, I expect it to be higher. Also it assumes the government target of 1m a week is met (and met consistently), which is probably optimistic. So don't pencil your expected jab date in the diary quite yet.
Mark Drakeford has blamed 'selfish' behaviour by the public for forcing a fresh lockdown in Wales.
The Welsh First Minister insisted his 17-day firebreak at the end of October had worked but afterwards some people had acted like coronavirus was 'in the rear view mirror'.
He's right in the sense that people are utterly useless and don't follow the rules here but he's wrong because the lockdown was too short and he was wrong to end it.
Even going into Tiers wouldn't have worked, as England has proved.
His mistake was ending the lockdown at all, just as England made the mistake too.
Mark Drakeford has blamed 'selfish' behaviour by the public for forcing a fresh lockdown in Wales.
The Welsh First Minister insisted his 17-day firebreak at the end of October had worked but afterwards some people had acted like coronavirus was 'in the rear view mirror'.
Working assumption when dealing with Covid has to be that people are prone to think that the regulations are for other people, because they are being sensible, limiting the BBQ in their back garden to just 50 people....
Mark Drakeford has blamed 'selfish' behaviour by the public for forcing a fresh lockdown in Wales.
The Welsh First Minister insisted his 17-day firebreak at the end of October had worked but afterwards some people had acted like coronavirus was 'in the rear view mirror'.
Working assumption when dealing with Covid has to be that people are prone to think that the regulations are for other people, because they are being sensible, limiting the BBQ in their back garden to just 50 people....
The calculator which @Foxy pointed us to assumes that the take-up rate of the vaccine will be the same as that of the flu jab (70.6%). That strikes me as unlikely, I expect it to be higher. Also it assumes the government target of 1m a week is met (and met consistently), which is probably optimistic. So don't pencil your expected jab date in the diary quite yet.
Agreed. OTOH, provided we can get enough vaccine I doubt we will top out at 1m. I suspect it will be higher.
Mark Drakeford has blamed 'selfish' behaviour by the public for forcing a fresh lockdown in Wales.
The Welsh First Minister insisted his 17-day firebreak at the end of October had worked but afterwards some people had acted like coronavirus was 'in the rear view mirror'.
Wait, so he's blaming the people for taking him seriously when he and Labour presented this idea as a solution? He told them that "this will make it go away" and "the stupid English aren't doing it so we must be right", now suddenly it's the people that are at fault for his idiotic idea.
Mark Drakeford has blamed 'selfish' behaviour by the public for forcing a fresh lockdown in Wales.
The Welsh First Minister insisted his 17-day firebreak at the end of October had worked but afterwards some people had acted like coronavirus was 'in the rear view mirror'.
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Interesting. Even though I'm a fair way down the priority list, I was surprised at how soon I might get the jab, if the assumptions are right. I hope they can achieve 1m a week (and get enough of the vaccines to do that).
Based on your profile, there are between 9,926,645 and 12,305,865 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK.
Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 25/02/2021 and 14/03/2021.
Much as with Trump, Boris' core vote comes from white voters without a degree.
In 2015 Cameron won graduates as did Romney in 2012, there has been a sizeable shift in both the Tory and GOP coalitions from the upper middle class to the white working class
People with whom Liz Truss’s speech yesterday will have gone down well, no matter what the woke commentariat of Islington think of it.
Yes, a denunciation of Foucault is always guaranteed to appeal to the WWC.
Tea break at medical school interviews. Am ensuring every candidate has a thorough knowledge of Foucalt and modern trends in Critical Theory. Indeed demonstrating asymmetric power dynamics again shortly...
One of Foucault's seminal works is 'A History of Madness'.
The calculator which @Foxy pointed us to assumes that the take-up rate of the vaccine will be the same as that of the flu jab (70.6%). That strikes me as unlikely, I expect it to be higher. Also it assumes the government target of 1m a week is met (and met consistently), which is probably optimistic. So don't pencil your expected jab date in the diary quite yet.
I think we'll be exceeding 1 million a week eventually.
Mark Drakeford has blamed 'selfish' behaviour by the public for forcing a fresh lockdown in Wales.
The Welsh First Minister insisted his 17-day firebreak at the end of October had worked but afterwards some people had acted like coronavirus was 'in the rear view mirror'.
Wait, so he's blaming the people for taking him seriously when he and Labour presented this idea as a solution? He told them that "this will make it go away" and "the stupid English aren't doing it so we must be right", now suddenly it's the people that are at fault for his idiotic idea.
I see the Telegraph is promoting Tier 1 Isle of Wight as "Your next staycation destination".
Have a pleasant holiday and kill other people's deadwood grannies rather than your own, win win.
One-time friend of mine owned a pharmacy on Wight. Got into trouble with the NHS, basically because he thought he was cleverer than anyone else about the NHS contract. I was acting as an advisor to people in his position then and he asked for my help. Took a good look at his 'defence' and advised him to plead guilty and apologise. He refused my advice (and didn't pay me) defended himself, got fined the maximum and eventually struck off.
If it were ever in doubt, I will always take the OKC advice
Very wise! LOL. Must confess my advice, though always good, didn't always result in exoneration.
The calculator which @Foxy pointed us to assumes that the take-up rate of the vaccine will be the same as that of the flu jab (70.6%). That strikes me as unlikely, I expect it to be higher. Also it assumes the government target of 1m a week is met (and met consistently), which is probably optimistic. So don't pencil your expected jab date in the diary quite yet.
Indeed, though it does let you tweak both assumptions if you want.
Seems to me a key question is how many people we need to vaccinate to sever the connection between cases and deaths. If we find in April that daily deaths are in the low double-digits despite 20k daily cases that might significantly change the trade-off for restrictions.
The calculator which @Foxy pointed us to assumes that the take-up rate of the vaccine will be the same as that of the flu jab (70.6%). That strikes me as unlikely, I expect it to be higher. Also it assumes the government target of 1m a week is met (and met consistently), which is probably optimistic. So don't pencil your expected jab date in the diary quite yet.
Agreed. OTOH, provided we can get enough vaccine I doubt we will top out at 1m. I suspect it will be higher.
A lot depends on the AZ vaccine and when and who it gets approved for. If it's under 55s only I could see the government run weekend vaccination programmes for it in church halls with soldiers trained to give jabs doing it. I also wouldn't be surprised if it was done on a queue up at 8am basis rather than appointments. That way you maximise daily capacity so could easily get through a thousand people per day at one venue, ramp up to 1000 venues across the country and suddenly you're making huge headway into the under 55s which will bring the national R down basically 0.
Comments
Amongst upper middle class professional voters earning more than $200 000 a year household income Trump did far worse than Romney however
BBC News - Greater Manchester Police failings: Andy Burnham 'should resign'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-55361452
If you want evidence that the deranged and/or corrupt right has always been with us, the recent tv series Mrs America and a Sky documentary this week on Roy Cohn provides oodles of it.
Between this and Trump still being 1.06 for a 2021 exit, that's over before it even begun.
Final F1 comments before I go back to my monster spreadsheet of death. Alonso bombing around in that Renault R25 on tyres it wasn't designed for after 15 years as a museum exhibit and going quicker than today's cars were going. As various drivers / principles have commented it makes you wonder about the directions that F1 has decided to go since the V10 days. Yes we need new fuel efficient cars but do they have to be fatter heavier and lumpen with it?
And you've still not said what you object to about producing steel? Steel is valuable. I have no qualms with steel being produced, what is your objection to it?
We aren't destroying forests for biofuel in this country. That is a silly suggestion.
I can't think of a more "green" method of manufacturing than that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xSkC4PUsTw
I thought I saw reports saying it was lapping several seconds slower, but it just felt quicker.
One key flaw of the US Constitution though is it was written without partisan politics in mind. Our Constitution has evolved and adapted to work with partisans but theirs was written with some idealised notions and then inevitably within a few years partisanship took over. But the "checks and balances" were already written and many have not evolved since.
I remember just weeks ago when some here insisted this time, this time, the Tories would do broadband properly
Made one hell of a noise though!
I remember when this was called Project Fear
1. This is not all about Trump - it's also the comparator. Romney was a very traditional GOP candidate who could have been sent by central casting for high earning moderates - no intention of shaking up the system, and would cut taxes.
2. The extreme expression of your argument just isn't right - although Trump made inroads with non-college educated voters, the Republican base continues to be relatively wealthy. Similarly in the UK, the red wall broke not because Johnson "won" the working class vote in an absolute sense but that he kept the voters of posh parts of Bolsover (of which there are plenty) and did less badly than previous Tories in parts that used to provide a Labour block vote. It's a subtle difference but an important one - it's an important shift but not a "flipping" of party roles as happened with the strange death of Southern Democrats/Northern Republicans.
3. There appears to have been some reversion to the mean in 2020 compared with 2016. Interestingly, for all the talk of Trump alienating women and ethnic minority voters, the biggest pro-Biden shifts were among white men (both college and non-college educated) and slightly less well off voters. That's partly low base, and partly that Clinton did very well among black voters (the Clinton brand remains very strong) and very poorly among men. But the 2020 vote was more "normal" than 2016 in many ways. I'd suggest this is partly because, for all Trump's personal eccentricities, he governed as a somewhat traditional, "old Republican" in some respects - tax cuts and social conservatism. In 2016 you could project what you wanted on him - many new GOP voters predicted he'd be quite socially liberal and prioritise tax breaks for less well off, but they were disappointed.
An app to say when:
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Just checked - fastest lap was about 4 seconds off of pole and a second and a half behind Latifi in the final Williams; I think qualifying would be a better comparison. Especially as Alonso needed a cool-off lap immediately after setting his fastest lap.
The size difference is very noticeable.
My formulation was right.
He was technically impeached. He wasn't removed from office if that is what you mistakenly mean by impeachment (no President has ever been removed via impeachment) but technically he was impeached.
I like that you can change the settings as well.
Fifty Shades of QE: Conflicts of Interest in Economic Research
https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/research-summary/fifty-shades-of-qe-conflicts-of-interest-in-economic-research/
To be fair, there are actually a fair few places on Easter that are probably hotbeds of Continental Philosophy.
📅 Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 26/06/2021 and 16/09/2021.
Whether the second jab is even necessary or not isn't really known since there's no data on people who didn't get the second jab.
Based on your profile, there are between 9,926,645 and 12,305,865 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK.
Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 25/02/2021 and 14/03/2021.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/mullet-hairdo-back-dead-barmy-23185496.amp
Continues to put fish at the forefront of the news.
2 I don't disagree on average the Tories and Republicans still tend to win wealthy voters, even if by less than Cameron and Romney did but my point was more about education than income eg a high earning non graduate voter will be more likely to vote Tory or GOP now still than a low earning graduate who will likely still be a Labour or Democratic voter.
3 Biden made his biggest gains amongst middle income earners yes and eroded Trump's lead with non college educated white men, though Trump still won them convincingly, which was why he was the best Democratic candidate in terms of beating Trump and did narrowly manage to do so.
However it should be pointed out Trump did better with the poorest voters earning under $30 000 than he did in 2016 and with African Americans too, for them I suspect issues like law and order were paramount rather than economics and immigration would have been an issue for low income whites
We await patiently
That underlying medical condition is finally paying off!
Only 7% of US voters have a household income over $200 000 however, so earning more than $200 000 means you have reached a level to be counted as rich
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
The Welsh First Minister insisted his 17-day firebreak at the end of October had worked but afterwards some people had acted like coronavirus was 'in the rear view mirror'.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9067273/Mark-Drakeford-blames-selfish-behaviour-fresh-lockdown-Wales.html
Even going into Tiers wouldn't have worked, as England has proved.
His mistake was ending the lockdown at all, just as England made the mistake too.
So all in all it's a score draw.
Oh, wait a minute...
The bottleneck will be availability of vaccine.
Seems to me a key question is how many people we need to vaccinate to sever the connection between cases and deaths. If we find in April that daily deaths are in the low double-digits despite 20k daily cases that might significantly change the trade-off for restrictions.