Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Interesting. Even though I'm a fair way down the priority list, I was surprised at how soon I might get the jab, if the assumptions are right. I hope they can achieve 1m a week (and get enough of the vaccines to do that).
Based on your profile, there are between 9,926,645 and 12,305,865 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK.
Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 25/02/2021 and 14/03/2021.
Cheltenham Day One: 16th March.
Has Cheltenham Festival 2021 been canned yet?
Well the event will go ahead. Just that no one knows how many if any spectators there will be.
The calculator which @Foxy pointed us to assumes that the take-up rate of the vaccine will be the same as that of the flu jab (70.6%). That strikes me as unlikely, I expect it to be higher. Also it assumes the government target of 1m a week is met (and met consistently), which is probably optimistic. So don't pencil your expected jab date in the diary quite yet.
Indeed, though it does let you tweak both assumptions if you want.
Seems to me a key question is how many people we need to vaccinate to sever the connection between cases and deaths. If we find in April that daily deaths are in the low double-digits despite 20k daily cases that might significantly change the trade-off for restrictions.
When the Oxford Vaccine is available we will do far more than a million a week
Mark Drakeford has blamed 'selfish' behaviour by the public for forcing a fresh lockdown in Wales.
The Welsh First Minister insisted his 17-day firebreak at the end of October had worked but afterwards some people had acted like coronavirus was 'in the rear view mirror'.
He does have a point, but of course it still falls back on him for not communicating the situation properly and misjudging the public.
2,801 cases in Wales today, up from 2,234 last Friday, so "only" up 25%. Would be good if it finally was the first sign of a slowdown due to the level 3 restrictions (and all the bad news).
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Very handy, thanks.
I like that you can change the settings as well.
Still no notification about mine!
My wife is between 22nd Dec and 18th Jan and I am between 18th Jan and 29th Jan
We await patiently
Big G like everything else in the NHS you need to sharpen your elbows. Call them and push if you haven't heard a date by now.
That is very nice of you but my wife and I will wait our turn as this is Wales and Drakeford's NHS where seeing is believing !!!
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Just done mine. It says:
"Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 12/05/2021 and 03/06/2021"
This is much later that I had hoped.
Any views on the assumptions that the utility is working on (1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%)?
Mark Drakeford has blamed 'selfish' behaviour by the public for forcing a fresh lockdown in Wales.
The Welsh First Minister insisted his 17-day firebreak at the end of October had worked but afterwards some people had acted like coronavirus was 'in the rear view mirror'.
The calculator which @Foxy pointed us to assumes that the take-up rate of the vaccine will be the same as that of the flu jab (70.6%). That strikes me as unlikely, I expect it to be higher. Also it assumes the government target of 1m a week is met (and met consistently), which is probably optimistic. So don't pencil your expected jab date in the diary quite yet.
Agreed. OTOH, provided we can get enough vaccine I doubt we will top out at 1m. I suspect it will be higher.
A lot depends on the AZ vaccine and when and who it gets approved for. If it's under 55s only I could see the government run weekend vaccination programmes for it in church halls with soldiers trained to give jabs doing it. I also wouldn't be surprised if it was done on a queue up at 8am basis rather than appointments. That way you maximise daily capacity so could easily get through a thousand people per day at one venue, ramp up to 1000 venues across the country and suddenly you're making huge headway into the under 55s which will bring the national R down basically 0.
There's an interesting dilemma for the Gov't if Oxford gets approved. Is a 2nd parallel queue for u55s set up ?
The soldiers/village halls idea isn't a bad one - the whole half/full dose on the 1st/2nd visits will need some managing though. It'd be a good use of the army though, better idea than paying SERCO to do the same job at any rate.
The calculator which @Foxy pointed us to assumes that the take-up rate of the vaccine will be the same as that of the flu jab (70.6%). That strikes me as unlikely, I expect it to be higher. Also it assumes the government target of 1m a week is met (and met consistently), which is probably optimistic. So don't pencil your expected jab date in the diary quite yet.
Agreed. OTOH, provided we can get enough vaccine I doubt we will top out at 1m. I suspect it will be higher.
A lot depends on the AZ vaccine and when and who it gets approved for. If it's under 55s only I could see the government run weekend vaccination programmes for it in church halls with soldiers trained to give jabs doing it. I also wouldn't be surprised if it was done on a queue up at 8am basis rather than appointments. That way you maximise daily capacity so could easily get through a thousand people per day at one venue, ramp up to 1000 venues across the country and suddenly you're making huge headway into the under 55s which will bring the national R down basically 0.
One of my nurse friends is doing a flu vaccine clinic this morning (8.30-1). She has 95 people booked in. She says that it is easy to do that many in a morning. The method of giving the Oxford Vaccine should be very similar. There are 10,000 GP surgeries in the UK. If you multiply that up a million a day is not inconceivable at all.
A planning application for a 250 acre opencast mine for the extraction of 800,000 tons of coal and 400,000 tons of fireclay is probably going to be rejected by Newcastle City Council today. A pity.
Good. No need for coal energy in this country. It's polluting and the leading cause of climate change.
There's different types of coal though isn't there?
Coal for burning absolutely is antiquated.
Coal for steel is different and still needed though isn't it?
No idea which this one is but there's a future usage I believe for the right types of coal even in a net zero future.
As I understand it the coal is to be used to make steel for.....er.......windfarms.
Its almost as if Maoist 20-year plans have horrendous unforeseen downsides.
What's wrong with that in your eyes? 🤔
Producing steel for long term energy production is a far superior usage of coal than merely burning it for electricity.
What's wrong with it is it that Zero 2050 is a Great Leap Forward Maoist target. Burning coal for steel is just one example of how when you have these, everything, and in particular inconvenient truth, gets completely and utterly ignored in pursuit of the goal. Destroying forests to grow biofuels is another example of this
Frank Dikotter's 'Mao's Great Famine' and Jung Chang's 'Mao, the Unknown Story' are instructive in this respect. Conservative politicians should know these books by rote.
There's a whole field of research called Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) that gets into this in detail - I once contributed to a review on different biofuel options using only full LCA papers, that estimate the full emissions from all te sources involved over the timescale used. There's plenty of research on the emissions implications of coal for steel for wind turbines compared to other sources of electricity. I won't provide the spoiler on what the results show...
Biofuels often do quite badly on a LCA basis, once fertilisers, water and transport costs are included.
It's time for UK Gov to get around the table with Scotland, Wales and NI and to get the entire UK locked down until January at the earliest.
What's Scotland done to deserve that? Its tiered approach seems to be working ok. Taking areas that don't need it into lockdown and back out again causes people to rush to the shops and pubs just before the lockdown and again after, and I think generally reduces adherence to the rules due to resentment and "confusion".
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Just done mine. It says:
"Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 12/05/2021 and 03/06/2021"
This is much later that I had hoped.
Any views on the assumptions that the utility is working on (1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%)?
Someone needs to drive Boris up and down the M20 to show him what leaving without a deal will look like in perpetuity.
I doubt it will be in perpetuity to be fair
Even no deal will see mitigation measures but of course a deal is really needed
Of course, we will adapt. But to what purpose?
To avoid losing face. In future, people wanting to do business with us will probably get training on the importance of face to our culture, so they don't inadvertently offend us while negotiating.
The calculator which @Foxy pointed us to assumes that the take-up rate of the vaccine will be the same as that of the flu jab (70.6%). That strikes me as unlikely, I expect it to be higher. Also it assumes the government target of 1m a week is met (and met consistently), which is probably optimistic. So don't pencil your expected jab date in the diary quite yet.
Agreed. OTOH, provided we can get enough vaccine I doubt we will top out at 1m. I suspect it will be higher.
A lot depends on the AZ vaccine and when and who it gets approved for. If it's under 55s only I could see the government run weekend vaccination programmes for it in church halls with soldiers trained to give jabs doing it. I also wouldn't be surprised if it was done on a queue up at 8am basis rather than appointments. That way you maximise daily capacity so could easily get through a thousand people per day at one venue, ramp up to 1000 venues across the country and suddenly you're making huge headway into the under 55s which will bring the national R down basically 0.
There's an interesting dilemma for the Gov't if Oxford gets approved. Is a 2nd parallel queue for u55s set up ?
The soldiers/village halls idea isn't a bad one - the whole half/full dose on the 1st/2nd visits will need some managing though. It'd be a good use of the army though, better idea than paying SERCO to do the same job at any rate.
Is getting lots of untested people to congregate in one place at unplanned times such a good idea?
The calculator which @Foxy pointed us to assumes that the take-up rate of the vaccine will be the same as that of the flu jab (70.6%). That strikes me as unlikely, I expect it to be higher. Also it assumes the government target of 1m a week is met (and met consistently), which is probably optimistic. So don't pencil your expected jab date in the diary quite yet.
Agreed. OTOH, provided we can get enough vaccine I doubt we will top out at 1m. I suspect it will be higher.
A lot depends on the AZ vaccine and when and who it gets approved for. If it's under 55s only I could see the government run weekend vaccination programmes for it in church halls with soldiers trained to give jabs doing it. I also wouldn't be surprised if it was done on a queue up at 8am basis rather than appointments. That way you maximise daily capacity so could easily get through a thousand people per day at one venue, ramp up to 1000 venues across the country and suddenly you're making huge headway into the under 55s which will bring the national R down basically 0.
One of my nurse friends is doing a flu vaccine clinic this morning (8.30-1). She has 95 people booked in. She says that it is easy to do that many in a morning. The method of giving the Oxford Vaccine should be very similar. There are 10,000 GP surgeries in the UK. If you multiply that up a million a day is not inconceivable at all.
it's a shame they cant get it into some sort of epipen format that they can post out to everybody to just do their own if they want to.
The tests are not being done by the teaching staff and to be honest the idea they may have to work over the holidays when we are in the teeth of this crisis with millions of private sector employees losing their jobs is unacceptable
The calculator which @Foxy pointed us to assumes that the take-up rate of the vaccine will be the same as that of the flu jab (70.6%). That strikes me as unlikely, I expect it to be higher. Also it assumes the government target of 1m a week is met (and met consistently), which is probably optimistic. So don't pencil your expected jab date in the diary quite yet.
Agreed. OTOH, provided we can get enough vaccine I doubt we will top out at 1m. I suspect it will be higher.
A lot depends on the AZ vaccine and when and who it gets approved for. If it's under 55s only I could see the government run weekend vaccination programmes for it in church halls with soldiers trained to give jabs doing it. I also wouldn't be surprised if it was done on a queue up at 8am basis rather than appointments. That way you maximise daily capacity so could easily get through a thousand people per day at one venue, ramp up to 1000 venues across the country and suddenly you're making huge headway into the under 55s which will bring the national R down basically 0.
One of my nurse friends is doing a flu vaccine clinic this morning (8.30-1). She has 95 people booked in. She says that it is easy to do that many in a morning. The method of giving the Oxford Vaccine should be very similar. There are 10,000 GP surgeries in the UK. If you multiply that up a million a day is not inconceivable at all.
it's a shame they cant get it into some sort of epipen format that they can post out to everybody to just do their own if they want to.
It's a thought, but Epipens are, or were in my day, expensive.
Back in the day I used to supply meningitis vaccine to school nurses for the meningitis campaigns. They got through that sort of number, and the situation was complicated by the fact that they had to have parental consent forms...... which were distributed a week or so earlier.
I can only presume that they have modelled hospital rates in January and decided that, much though they want to, keeping schools and Universities open over the next month risks exceeding capacity in several parts of the country. I think, sadly, that has been fairly obvious for at least a couple of weeks.
Someone needs to drive Boris up and down the M20 to show him what leaving without a deal will look like in perpetuity.
I doubt it will be in perpetuity to be fair
Even no deal will see mitigation measures but of course a deal is really needed
Of course, we will adapt. But to what purpose?
To avoid losing face. In future, people wanting to do business with us will probably get training on the importance of face to our culture, so they don't inadvertently offend us while negotiating.
Those worried about losing face are unlikely to be the ones doing business.
Someone needs to drive Boris up and down the M20 to show him what leaving without a deal will look like in perpetuity.
I doubt it will be in perpetuity to be fair
Even no deal will see mitigation measures but of course a deal is really needed
Of course, we will adapt. But to what purpose?
Time will tell and by that I do not mean weeks but months and years
I believe the end destination is likely to be as members of the single market and customs union
It won't be the end of civilisation as we know it. It was just an effing stupid thing to do and it will take a very long time to sort it out and undo the harm.
I've just read Liz Truss's speech on equality (it's on Conservative Home). It really is terribly confused, and confusing. She swipes hard at identity politics, but then goes on to recognise the discrimination/disadvantage faced by various identity groups. So, for example: We will not limit our fight for fairness to the nine protected characteristics laid out in the 2010 Equality Act… which include sex, race, and gender reassignment. While it is true people in these groups suffer discrimination, the focus on protected characteristics has led to a narrowing of the equality debate that overlooks socio-economic status and geographic inequality.
So it's true that "people in these groups suffer discrimination", but like a good leftie she says we need to add in "socio-economic status and geographic inequality" and "not limit our fight for fairness" to those with the nine protected characteristics.
Later, she says:
Next year, the United Kingdom will use its presidency of the G7 to ramp up its work worldwide with like-minded allies to champion freedom, human rights and the equality of opportunity. The UK is co-leading the new global Generation Equality Action Coalition on Gender Based Violence, and co-chairing the Equal Rights Coalition. In that role, we will be holding our International LGBT conference, on the theme of Safe To Be Me.
"Safe To Be Me" sounds very much like identity politics to me. Foucault would have approved. And as for "Generation Equality Action Coalition on Gender Based Violence" - sounds like something Momentum would come up with.
So, the soundbites don't quite match the rhetoric, do they? Despite her admonishments of wokeness, much of the speech reads pretty woke to me. Not sure the right should be as pleased with this as they seem to be - and she makes no pledge to repeal the Equalities Act, which would be the best dog whistle. Frankly, the speech is a mess.
Someone needs to drive Boris up and down the M20 to show him what leaving without a deal will look like in perpetuity.
I doubt it will be in perpetuity to be fair
Even no deal will see mitigation measures but of course a deal is really needed
Of course, we will adapt. But to what purpose?
To avoid losing face. In future, people wanting to do business with us will probably get training on the importance of face to our culture, so they don't inadvertently offend us while negotiating.
Those worried about losing face are unlikely to be the ones doing business.
Yes, I was joking about the stereotypes that used to be taught about doing business in Japan.
The calculator which @Foxy pointed us to assumes that the take-up rate of the vaccine will be the same as that of the flu jab (70.6%). That strikes me as unlikely, I expect it to be higher. Also it assumes the government target of 1m a week is met (and met consistently), which is probably optimistic. So don't pencil your expected jab date in the diary quite yet.
Agreed. OTOH, provided we can get enough vaccine I doubt we will top out at 1m. I suspect it will be higher.
A lot depends on the AZ vaccine and when and who it gets approved for. If it's under 55s only I could see the government run weekend vaccination programmes for it in church halls with soldiers trained to give jabs doing it. I also wouldn't be surprised if it was done on a queue up at 8am basis rather than appointments. That way you maximise daily capacity so could easily get through a thousand people per day at one venue, ramp up to 1000 venues across the country and suddenly you're making huge headway into the under 55s which will bring the national R down basically 0.
One of my nurse friends is doing a flu vaccine clinic this morning (8.30-1). She has 95 people booked in. She says that it is easy to do that many in a morning. The method of giving the Oxford Vaccine should be very similar. There are 10,000 GP surgeries in the UK. If you multiply that up a million a day is not inconceivable at all.
it's a shame they cant get it into some sort of epipen format that they can post out to everybody to just do their own if they want to.
It's a thought, but Epipens are, or were in my day, expensive.
Back in the day I used to supply meningitis vaccine to school nurses for the meningitis campaigns. They got through that sort of number, and the situation was complicated by the fact that they had to have parental consent forms...... which were distributed a week or so earlier.
So what happens to those kids whose parents don't give consent?
I do not understand why because a no deal exit will take away their legal right to fish in UK waters altogether
I guess they expect that the UK will still want a trade deal even in the event of "no deal" in January and in such circumstances the EU will have an even stronger hand.
is the phase in period the length of time from uk getting 22% up to 100%, when EU boats have no access to UK waters, or the time to get from now to 22% or whatever figure they might agree?
Mark Drakeford has blamed 'selfish' behaviour by the public for forcing a fresh lockdown in Wales.
The Welsh First Minister insisted his 17-day firebreak at the end of October had worked but afterwards some people had acted like coronavirus was 'in the rear view mirror'.
Drakeford, here, is by and large correct, but he made the significant error of only a two week fire break and very liberal post lockdown rules, which gave the impression that it was party time.
There was a talking heads interview thingy on BBC Wales earlier in the week with Gething, Paul Davies and Adam Price. The excellent Price was broadly agreeable to the firebreak policy but was critical of the errors I have highlighted. Paul Davies was still banging on about the damage the lockdowns are doing to the Welsh economy and non-essential shopping in supermarkets.
You seem very keen to bolster Johnson's performance by contesting that others have done worse. I don't think anyone can argue that the current Welsh performance puts it in the relegation zone, but Southern England in particular is only out of the drop zone on goal difference. Now, I believe, as Drakeford has claimed the public are behaving irresponsibly in England, I was in Portsmouth (now in tier 3) last week and it looked like Covid apathy was rife there too. That is not Johnson's fault, however when the post-Covid post-mortem is reported Johnson will have the gold medal for mixed messaging, and his statement from the summer, "it is your patriotic duty to go to the pub" will be his epitaph!
Someone needs to drive Boris up and down the M20 to show him what leaving without a deal will look like in perpetuity.
I doubt it will be in perpetuity to be fair
Even no deal will see mitigation measures but of course a deal is really needed
Of course, we will adapt. But to what purpose?
Time will tell and by that I do not mean weeks but months and years
I believe the end destination is likely to be as members of the single market and customs union
It won't be the end of civilisation as we know it. It was just an effing stupid thing to do and it will take a very long time to sort it out and undo the harm.
Perhaps he is trying to bring home to them the consequences of not having any deal at all. They have massively overplayed their hand in relation to fish.
I have been crystal clear from before the referendum that we wanted a deal with the EU but many of the reasons for doing so are now being lost. A deal in October would have allowed some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities such as trusted trader schemes, road testing customs schemes on the Ferries and in the tunnel, the development of technology to facilitate easy and prompt transport etc etc. A deal now has none of these advantages. We are left with chaos because of the way that this has been dragged out to the last minute and beyond. I am seriously getting to the point I think its just not worth it. If we are going to have chaos anyway, and this is now inevitable in the short term, sod it, enough.
Someone needs to drive Boris up and down the M20 to show him what leaving without a deal will look like in perpetuity.
I doubt it will be in perpetuity to be fair
Even no deal will see mitigation measures but of course a deal is really needed
Of course, we will adapt. But to what purpose?
Time will tell and by that I do not mean weeks but months and years
I believe the end destination is likely to be as members of the single market and customs union
It won't be the end of civilisation as we know it. It was just an effing stupid thing to do and it will take a very long time to sort it out and undo the harm.
Starmer to put rejoining customs union in 2024 manifesto?
I've just read Liz Truss's speech on equality (it's on Conservative Home). It really is terribly confused, and confusing. She swipes hard at identity politics, but then goes on to recognise the discrimination/disadvantage faced by various identity groups. So, for example: We will not limit our fight for fairness to the nine protected characteristics laid out in the 2010 Equality Act… which include sex, race, and gender reassignment. While it is true people in these groups suffer discrimination, the focus on protected characteristics has led to a narrowing of the equality debate that overlooks socio-economic status and geographic inequality.
So it's true that "people in these groups suffer discrimination", but like a good leftie she says we need to add in "socio-economic status and geographic inequality" and "not limit our fight for fairness" to those with the nine protected characteristics.
Later, she says:
Next year, the United Kingdom will use its presidency of the G7 to ramp up its work worldwide with like-minded allies to champion freedom, human rights and the equality of opportunity. The UK is co-leading the new global Generation Equality Action Coalition on Gender Based Violence, and co-chairing the Equal Rights Coalition. In that role, we will be holding our International LGBT conference, on the theme of Safe To Be Me.
"Safe To Be Me" sounds very much like identity politics to me. Foucault would have approved. And as for "Generation Equality Action Coalition on Gender Based Violence" - sounds like something Momentum would come up with.
So, the soundbites don't quite match the rhetoric, do they? Despite her admonishments of wokeness, much of the speech reads pretty woke to me. Not sure the right should be as pleased with this as they seem to be - and she makes no pledge to repeal the Equalities Act, which would be the best dog whistle. Frankly, the speech is a mess.
Perhaps she is being meta and delivering a bad speech to demonstrate how badly she was let down by 1970s/80s education policies?
Perhaps he is trying to bring home to them the consequences of not having any deal at all. They have massively overplayed their hand in relation to fish.
I have been crystal clear from before the referendum that we wanted a deal with the EU but many of the reasons for doing so are now being lost. A deal in October would have allowed some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities such as trusted trader schemes, road testing customs schemes on the Ferries and in the tunnel, the development of technology to facilitate easy and prompt transport etc etc. A deal now has none of these advantages. We are left with chaos because of the way that this has been dragged out to the last minute and beyond. I am seriously getting to the point I think its just not worth it. If we are going to have chaos anyway, and this is now inevitable in the short term, sod it, enough.
Are you really suggesting that "disruption" is the only disadvantage of trading on WTO terms?
Surely if that was the case, countries wouldn't be falling over themselves to sign free-trade agreements with other countries.
I do not understand why because a no deal exit will take away their legal right to fish in UK waters altogether
I guess they expect that the UK will still want a trade deal even in the event of "no deal" in January and in such circumstances the EU will have an even stronger hand.
Maybe they're wrong, maybe they're not.
They are playing with fire and their fisherman's livelihoods
I do not understand why because a no deal exit will take away their legal right to fish in UK waters altogether
I guess they expect that the UK will still want a trade deal even in the event of "no deal" in January and in such circumstances the EU will have an even stronger hand.
Maybe they're wrong, maybe they're not.
They are playing with fire and their fisherman's livelihoods
Our Government is also playing with fire and the livelihoods of much more people than just fishermen. What is your point?
is the phase in period the length of time from uk getting 22% up to 100%, when EU boats have no access to UK waters, or the time to get from now to 22% or whatever figure they might agree?
I believe the UK are seeking 40% and a 3 year deal
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The tests are not being done by the teaching staff and to be honest the idea they may have to work over the holidays when we are in the teeth of this crisis with millions of private sector employees losing their jobs is unacceptable
I really don't think you appreciate what a mess the government has made of organising this.
Gibb on R4 this morning was utterly clueless, and unable to provide and answers to detailed questions at all, and answered everything with "the country has decided that education is a priority". Schools had already started making arrangements for testing, which have now been scrapped. They won't get guidance on how this is supposed to work until next week.
At the moment, the tests are not being done by anyone.
And most school SLTs would have been working over the holidays anyway, Big_G. You are defending incompetence.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
I do not understand why because a no deal exit will take away their legal right to fish in UK waters altogether
I guess they expect that the UK will still want a trade deal even in the event of "no deal" in January and in such circumstances the EU will have an even stronger hand.
Maybe they're wrong, maybe they're not.
They are playing with fire and their fisherman's livelihoods
It takes two to tango BigG. However it looks like a charade to me, and if the current theatrics allow Johnson his big win on fishing, what is for you to not to like?
Someone needs to drive Boris up and down the M20 to show him what leaving without a deal will look like in perpetuity.
I doubt it will be in perpetuity to be fair
Even no deal will see mitigation measures but of course a deal is really needed
Of course, we will adapt. But to what purpose?
Time will tell and by that I do not mean weeks but months and years
I believe the end destination is likely to be as members of the single market and customs union
It won't be the end of civilisation as we know it. It was just an effing stupid thing to do and it will take a very long time to sort it out and undo the harm.
Starmer to put rejoining customs union in 2024 manifesto?
I think it is far to early to be talking of that but I would not rule it out by the time we arrive in 2024
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
I've just read Liz Truss's speech on equality (it's on Conservative Home). It really is terribly confused, and confusing. She swipes hard at identity politics, but then goes on to recognise the discrimination/disadvantage faced by various identity groups. So, for example: We will not limit our fight for fairness to the nine protected characteristics laid out in the 2010 Equality Act… which include sex, race, and gender reassignment. While it is true people in these groups suffer discrimination, the focus on protected characteristics has led to a narrowing of the equality debate that overlooks socio-economic status and geographic inequality.
So it's true that "people in these groups suffer discrimination", but like a good leftie she says we need to add in "socio-economic status and geographic inequality" and "not limit our fight for fairness" to those with the nine protected characteristics.
Later, she says:
Next year, the United Kingdom will use its presidency of the G7 to ramp up its work worldwide with like-minded allies to champion freedom, human rights and the equality of opportunity. The UK is co-leading the new global Generation Equality Action Coalition on Gender Based Violence, and co-chairing the Equal Rights Coalition. In that role, we will be holding our International LGBT conference, on the theme of Safe To Be Me.
"Safe To Be Me" sounds very much like identity politics to me. Foucault would have approved. And as for "Generation Equality Action Coalition on Gender Based Violence" - sounds like something Momentum would come up with.
So, the soundbites don't quite match the rhetoric, do they? Despite her admonishments of wokeness, much of the speech reads pretty woke to me. Not sure the right should be as pleased with this as they seem to be - and she makes no pledge to repeal the Equalities Act, which would be the best dog whistle. Frankly, the speech is a mess.
Perhaps she is being meta and delivering a bad speech to demonstrate how badly she was let down by 1970s/80s education policies?
Interesting anecdotal communication by the medical bush telegraph. The new SE covid variety seems to progress more rapidly, so keep an eye on your sats if you get it.
Just done mine. It says:
"Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 12/05/2021 and 03/06/2021"
This is much later that I had hoped.
Any views on the assumptions that the utility is working on (1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%)?
Key thing there is the million per week assumption, as you say.
That seems to me to be 20% to 30% of what will be achievable.
I'm currently predicted for Feb week one, but I am expecting a time more like Jan 20.
I really hope it is more than 70.6%.
My flu jab clinic at the GP back in September had capacity for at least 200 jabs per hour.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Perhaps he is trying to bring home to them the consequences of not having any deal at all. They have massively overplayed their hand in relation to fish.
I have been crystal clear from before the referendum that we wanted a deal with the EU but many of the reasons for doing so are now being lost. A deal in October would have allowed some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities such as trusted trader schemes, road testing customs schemes on the Ferries and in the tunnel, the development of technology to facilitate easy and prompt transport etc etc. A deal now has none of these advantages. We are left with chaos because of the way that this has been dragged out to the last minute and beyond. I am seriously getting to the point I think its just not worth it. If we are going to have chaos anyway, and this is now inevitable in the short term, sod it, enough.
Are you really suggesting that "disruption" is the only disadvantage of trading on WTO terms?
Surely if that was the case, countries wouldn't be falling over themselves to sign free-trade agreements with other countries.
No, I am not saying that. Tariff free trade is a good thing. But the sort of deal the EU wants has disbenefits as well as benefits and restricts us. The upside of such a deal in October would have outweighed that. The balance is becoming finer by the hour.
We import about £85bn more from the EU than we export in goods (we have a surplus on services that offsets that somewhat but it is unclear if this deal is going to allow that to continue). A 5% tariff nets the UK over £4bn a year. Its a thought.
I've just read Liz Truss's speech on equality (it's on Conservative Home). It really is terribly confused, and confusing. She swipes hard at identity politics, but then goes on to recognise the discrimination/disadvantage faced by various identity groups. So, for example: We will not limit our fight for fairness to the nine protected characteristics laid out in the 2010 Equality Act… which include sex, race, and gender reassignment. While it is true people in these groups suffer discrimination, the focus on protected characteristics has led to a narrowing of the equality debate that overlooks socio-economic status and geographic inequality.
So it's true that "people in these groups suffer discrimination", but like a good leftie she says we need to add in "socio-economic status and geographic inequality" and "not limit our fight for fairness" to those with the nine protected characteristics.
Later, she says:
Next year, the United Kingdom will use its presidency of the G7 to ramp up its work worldwide with like-minded allies to champion freedom, human rights and the equality of opportunity. The UK is co-leading the new global Generation Equality Action Coalition on Gender Based Violence, and co-chairing the Equal Rights Coalition. In that role, we will be holding our International LGBT conference, on the theme of Safe To Be Me.
"Safe To Be Me" sounds very much like identity politics to me. Foucault would have approved. And as for "Generation Equality Action Coalition on Gender Based Violence" - sounds like something Momentum would come up with.
So, the soundbites don't quite match the rhetoric, do they? Despite her admonishments of wokeness, much of the speech reads pretty woke to me. Not sure the right should be as pleased with this as they seem to be - and she makes no pledge to repeal the Equalities Act, which would be the best dog whistle. Frankly, the speech is a mess.
Perhaps she is being meta and delivering a bad speech to demonstrate how badly she was let down by 1970s/80s education policies?
That 60% Tory support from those with no qualifications is as good an explanation of current education policy as any.
Plus he totally fluked 2016 and even that was with Putin's help. Joke figure. Means nothing. Stands for nothing. Just a warning of what can happen if a critical mass of voters get morally lax and intellectually lazy. I've made a big, life changing decision and it's only right and proper that I announce it here before I even tell my mum. I have cancelled Donald Trump and I'm moving on - apart from the occasional post like this one on the (I predict) rapidly diminishing number of threads where he's the topic. He's going to fade away now and what a relief it will be. Ok, other grisly figures will no doubt emerge to pitch for his hardcore fanbase, but this will not detract from the massive positive of not having to constantly see or hear or read about him. For over 4 years almost every single day has had this toxic bozo prominent in the news. "What did Trump say?" being the BBC template, followed by a regurgitation of whatever idiocy or hate-speech or lying bullshit he had chosen to emit that day. No longer, least not here in the UK. I often reach for the words of Martin Luther King on a Friday morning and I do so without hesitation here. Free at last, free at last.
I just replied "loser" on his twitter feed. I hope to be blocked.
Ultimate badge of honour! I'd give a lot for that. But unfortunately I'm not on Twitter.
I do not understand why because a no deal exit will take away their legal right to fish in UK waters altogether
I guess they expect that the UK will still want a trade deal even in the event of "no deal" in January and in such circumstances the EU will have an even stronger hand.
Maybe they're wrong, maybe they're not.
They are playing with fire and their fisherman's livelihoods
Our Government is also playing with fire and the livelihoods of much more people than just fishermen. What is your point?
My point is that the deal is there but for agreeing that fishing post brexit is in an independent coastal nation which across the world controls the rights to their waters and must be recognised accordingly
Someone needs to drive Boris up and down the M20 to show him what leaving without a deal will look like in perpetuity.
I doubt it will be in perpetuity to be fair
Even no deal will see mitigation measures but of course a deal is really needed
Of course, we will adapt. But to what purpose?
Time will tell and by that I do not mean weeks but months and years
I believe the end destination is likely to be as members of the single market and customs union
It won't be the end of civilisation as we know it. It was just an effing stupid thing to do and it will take a very long time to sort it out and undo the harm.
Starmer to put rejoining customs union in 2024 manifesto?
I think it is far to early to be talking of that but I would not rule it out by the time we arrive in 2024
If Brexit by 2024 is not unicorns grazing the sunny uplands, as we were promised, it could even win Labour a vote or two.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
No, as 2/3 of Tory MPs would still have voted for a Deal, as would his most likely replacement Rishi Sunak, so he would survive any confidence vote
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
More than likely the case. There's absolutely no way BJ, even without Cummings on his right hand, would have worked towards a smooth, sensible transition with visible compromises on all sides, it has to be blood, toil, tears and sweat with a side order of sticking it to the Frogs/Huns (delete to taste). The idea that 'some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities' was ever on the menu is fantasy (sorry DavidL).
is the phase in period the length of time from uk getting 22% up to 100%, when EU boats have no access to UK waters, or the time to get from now to 22% or whatever figure they might agree?
I believe the UK are seeking 40% and a 3 year deal
Perhaps he is trying to bring home to them the consequences of not having any deal at all. They have massively overplayed their hand in relation to fish.
I have been crystal clear from before the referendum that we wanted a deal with the EU but many of the reasons for doing so are now being lost. A deal in October would have allowed some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities such as trusted trader schemes, road testing customs schemes on the Ferries and in the tunnel, the development of technology to facilitate easy and prompt transport etc etc. A deal now has none of these advantages. We are left with chaos because of the way that this has been dragged out to the last minute and beyond. I am seriously getting to the point I think its just not worth it. If we are going to have chaos anyway, and this is now inevitable in the short term, sod it, enough.
Are you really suggesting that "disruption" is the only disadvantage of trading on WTO terms?
Surely if that was the case, countries wouldn't be falling over themselves to sign free-trade agreements with other countries.
No, I am not saying that. Tariff free trade is a good thing. But the sort of deal the EU wants has disbenefits as well as benefits and restricts us. The upside of such a deal in October would have outweighed that. The balance is becoming finer by the hour.
We import about £85bn more from the EU than we export in goods (we have a surplus on services that offsets that somewhat but it is unclear if this deal is going to allow that to continue). A 5% tariff nets the UK over £4bn a year. Its a thought.
£4bn a year paid by UK consumers? I'm not sure that's a benefit.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
No, as 2/3 of Tory MPs would still have voted for a Deal, as would his most likely replacement Rishi Sunak, so he would survive any confidence vote
Look at the queues either side of the border. No Deal is already in effect. Its possible that a deal may be agreed later to remove the chaos but no deal has already happened.
As various (we've had enough of) experts have been saying for years you cannot go up until the final day then agree a deal and implement it the following day. Trade doesn't work like that.
Plus he totally fluked 2016 and even that was with Putin's help. Joke figure. Means nothing. Stands for nothing. Just a warning of what can happen if a critical mass of voters get morally lax and intellectually lazy. I've made a big, life changing decision and it's only right and proper that I announce it here before I even tell my mum. I have cancelled Donald Trump and I'm moving on - apart from the occasional post like this one on the (I predict) rapidly diminishing number of threads where he's the topic. He's going to fade away now and what a relief it will be. Ok, other grisly figures will no doubt emerge to pitch for his hardcore fanbase, but this will not detract from the massive positive of not having to constantly see or hear or read about him. For over 4 years almost every single day has had this toxic bozo prominent in the news. "What did Trump say?" being the BBC template, followed by a regurgitation of whatever idiocy or hate-speech or lying bullshit he had chosen to emit that day. No longer, least not here in the UK. I often reach for the words of Martin Luther King on a Friday morning and I do so without hesitation here. Free at last, free at last.
I should wait until he`s out of the White House.
Ok, good advice and I'll take it. I didn't get where I am today without deferring my gratification.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Look at the queues either side of the border. No Deal is already in effect. Its possible that a deal may be agreed later to remove the chaos but no deal has already happened.
As various (we've had enough of) experts have been saying for years you cannot go up until the final day then agree a deal and implement it the following day. Trade doesn't work like that.
No. They are running a trial to make sure it works smoothly once the minor problems exhibited today have been fixed.
Someone needs to drive Boris up and down the M20 to show him what leaving without a deal will look like in perpetuity.
I doubt it will be in perpetuity to be fair
Even no deal will see mitigation measures but of course a deal is really needed
Of course, we will adapt. But to what purpose?
Time will tell and by that I do not mean weeks but months and years
I believe the end destination is likely to be as members of the single market and customs union
It won't be the end of civilisation as we know it. It was just an effing stupid thing to do and it will take a very long time to sort it out and undo the harm.
Starmer to put rejoining customs union in 2024 manifesto?
I think it is far to early to be talking of that but I would not rule it out by the time we arrive in 2024
If Brexit by 2024 is not unicorns grazing the sunny uplands, as we were promised, it could even win Labour a vote or two.
The unicorns are stuck at Calais as they didn't have the necessary veterinary paperwork.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
No, as 2/3 of Tory MPs would still have voted for a Deal, as would his most likely replacement Rishi Sunak, so he would survive any confidence vote
I can only presume that they have modelled hospital rates in January and decided that, much though they want to, keeping schools and Universities open over the next month risks exceeding capacity in several parts of the country. I think, sadly, that has been fairly obvious for at least a couple of weeks.
It has been obvious for weeks that ending term a week early was the sensible thing to do - and would have been far less disruptive to pupils' education than the mess we're likely to experience. It is of a part with the official obfuscation of how many students and teachers have been absent from school isolating.
My prediction: this is theatrics to allow Johnson to claim the EU blinked on fish at the last minute, in order to distract from his compromise on dynamic alignment. Deal close to nailed on.
The problem is that the Brexiteers' definition of the EU blinking on fish may not match the reality. Will Johnson be able to sell a deal that his own supporters regard as a sell out?
With Labour support or even Labour abstention yes, Boris can then get a Deal through even if 50-100 Tory MPs join the DUP, the LDs, the SNP, Lucas and Plaid and vote against it
Would it be his final act as Tory leader?
If Labour support the deal, it may well he Starmer's final act as Labour leader.
Labour must support the deal, any deal, if the alternative is "no deal".
The tests are not being done by the teaching staff and to be honest the idea they may have to work over the holidays when we are in the teeth of this crisis with millions of private sector employees losing their jobs is unacceptable
I really don't think you appreciate what a mess the government has made of organising this.
Gibb on R4 this morning was utterly clueless, and unable to provide and answers to detailed questions at all, and answered everything with "the country has decided that education is a priority". Schools had already started making arrangements for testing, which have now been scrapped. They won't get guidance on how this is supposed to work until next week.
At the moment, the tests are not being done by anyone.
And most school SLTs would have been working over the holidays anyway, Big_G. You are defending incompetence.
There is no formula for dealing with this crisis nor the enormity of it
The logistics are off the scale of anything we have seen since the last war and of course it is complex
The accusation of incompetence could be applied across all four nations and of course errors are being made but I very much doubt any authority or anyone else would be able to do much better
Comments
2,801 cases in Wales today, up from 2,234 last Friday, so "only" up 25%. Would be good if it finally was the first sign of a slowdown due to the level 3 restrictions (and all the bad news).
"Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 12/05/2021 and 03/06/2021"
This is much later that I had hoped.
Any views on the assumptions that the utility is working on (1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%)?
The soldiers/village halls idea isn't a bad one - the whole half/full dose on the 1st/2nd visits will need some managing though. It'd be a good use of the army though, better idea than paying SERCO to do the same job at any rate.
Either declare deal or no deal
Biofuels often do quite badly on a LCA basis, once fertilisers, water and transport costs are included.
Lateral flow tests very poor at detection in the field, eg schools and care homes - about half of cases missed in asymptomatics in Liverpool
Even no deal will see mitigation measures but of course a deal is really needed
I believe the end destination is likely to be as members of the single market and customs union
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55354564
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1339910751415390208
Back in the day I used to supply meningitis vaccine to school nurses for the meningitis campaigns. They got through that sort of number, and the situation was complicated by the fact that they had to have parental consent forms...... which were distributed a week or so earlier.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1339910755706146816?s=20
So, for example:
We will not limit our fight for fairness to the nine protected characteristics laid out in the 2010 Equality Act… which include sex, race, and gender reassignment.
While it is true people in these groups suffer discrimination, the focus on protected characteristics has led to a narrowing of the equality debate that overlooks socio-economic status and geographic inequality.
So it's true that "people in these groups suffer discrimination", but like a good leftie she says we need to add in "socio-economic status and geographic inequality" and "not limit our fight for fairness" to those with the nine protected characteristics.
Later, she says:
Next year, the United Kingdom will use its presidency of the G7 to ramp up its work worldwide with like-minded allies to champion freedom, human rights and the equality of opportunity.
The UK is co-leading the new global Generation Equality Action Coalition on Gender Based Violence, and co-chairing the Equal Rights Coalition.
In that role, we will be holding our International LGBT conference, on the theme of Safe To Be Me.
"Safe To Be Me" sounds very much like identity politics to me. Foucault would have approved. And as for "Generation Equality Action Coalition on Gender Based Violence" - sounds like something Momentum would come up with.
So, the soundbites don't quite match the rhetoric, do they? Despite her admonishments of wokeness, much of the speech reads pretty woke to me. Not sure the right should be as pleased with this as they seem to be - and she makes no pledge to repeal the Equalities Act, which would be the best dog whistle.
Frankly, the speech is a mess.
Maybe they're wrong, maybe they're not.
If a no deals happens, and I do not want it to, then trade is wto and UK retains its coastal waters as do all maritime nations
There was a talking heads interview thingy on BBC Wales earlier in the week with Gething, Paul Davies and Adam Price. The excellent Price was broadly agreeable to the firebreak policy but was critical of the errors I have highlighted. Paul Davies was still banging on about the damage the lockdowns are doing to the Welsh economy and non-essential shopping in supermarkets.
You seem very keen to bolster Johnson's performance by contesting that others have done worse. I don't think anyone can argue that the current Welsh performance puts it in the relegation zone, but Southern England in particular is only out of the drop zone on goal difference. Now, I believe, as Drakeford has claimed the public are behaving irresponsibly in England, I was in Portsmouth (now in tier 3) last week and it looked like Covid apathy was rife there too. That is not Johnson's fault, however when the post-Covid post-mortem is reported Johnson will have the gold medal for mixed messaging, and his statement from the summer, "it is your patriotic duty to go to the pub" will be his epitaph!
I have been crystal clear from before the referendum that we wanted a deal with the EU but many of the reasons for doing so are now being lost. A deal in October would have allowed some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities such as trusted trader schemes, road testing customs schemes on the Ferries and in the tunnel, the development of technology to facilitate easy and prompt transport etc etc. A deal now has none of these advantages. We are left with chaos because of the way that this has been dragged out to the last minute and beyond. I am seriously getting to the point I think its just not worth it. If we are going to have chaos anyway, and this is now inevitable in the short term, sod it, enough.
Surely if that was the case, countries wouldn't be falling over themselves to sign free-trade agreements with other countries.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1339910175558385665?s=20
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1339826925141897218?s=20
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1339914359687004162?s=20
Gibb on R4 this morning was utterly clueless, and unable to provide and answers to detailed questions at all, and answered everything with "the country has decided that education is a priority".
Schools had already started making arrangements for testing, which have now been scrapped. They won't get guidance on how this is supposed to work until next week.
At the moment, the tests are not being done by anyone.
And most school SLTs would have been working over the holidays anyway, Big_G. You are defending incompetence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/12/18/microsoft-warns-uk-companies-targeted-solarwinds-hackers/
That seems to me to be 20% to 30% of what will be achievable.
I'm currently predicted for Feb week one, but I am expecting a time more like Jan 20.
I really hope it is more than 70.6%.
My flu jab clinic at the GP back in September had capacity for at least 200 jabs per hour.
We import about £85bn more from the EU than we export in goods (we have a surplus on services that offsets that somewhat but it is unclear if this deal is going to allow that to continue). A 5% tariff nets the UK over £4bn a year. Its a thought.
There's absolutely no way BJ, even without Cummings on his right hand, would have worked towards a smooth, sensible transition with visible compromises on all sides, it has to be blood, toil, tears and sweat with a side order of sticking it to the Frogs/Huns (delete to taste). The idea that 'some sensible adjustment and work on the practicalities' was ever on the menu is fantasy (sorry DavidL).
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1339910759917215747
As various (we've had enough of) experts have been saying for years you cannot go up until the final day then agree a deal and implement it the following day. Trade doesn't work like that.
Whether that's true or not is less important than whether they believe it to be true.
*innocent face*
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1339899858224898050?s=20
It is of a part with the official obfuscation of how many students and teachers have been absent from school isolating.
The logistics are off the scale of anything we have seen since the last war and of course it is complex
The accusation of incompetence could be applied across all four nations and of course errors are being made but I very much doubt any authority or anyone else would be able to do much better