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Even today with the Electoral College meeting Betfair punters rate Trump’s chances at 3% – political

SystemSystem Posts: 12,126
edited December 2020 in General
imageEven today with the Electoral College meeting Betfair punters rate Trump’s chances at 3% – politicalbetting.com

As the Betdarta.io chart shows the Betfair WH2020 is still open more than five weeks after other bookies settled Biden as the winner.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited December 2020
    It is disconcerting that there is no news release from BF since 27 Nov, see below:

    https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-betfair-market-settlement-latest-051120-204.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Swing to No in new Scottish indyref poll from Gold Standard Survation

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435570587099136?s=20
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    HYUFD said:

    Swing to No in new Scottish indyref poll from Gold Standard Survation

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435570587099136?s=20

    Oh dear - there's a split we're all very famiiar with!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20
  • I can't see BF paying now until Biden is holding the bible in his hand in late January.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    The EC will elect Biden today and that will be that, under the US constitution he will officially be President elect
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    My daughter`s been sent home from school because one pupil has tested positive. She was within two metres of him once - last Wednesday. She`s really upset about missing school.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    Stocky said:

    My daughter`s been sent home from school because one pupil has tested positive. She was within two metres of him once - last Wednesday. She`s really upset about missing school.

    How long was she within 2m? Presumably she only has to isolate for 10 days too?
  • HYUFD said:

    Swing to No in new Scottish indyref poll from Gold Standard Survation

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435570587099136?s=20

    What is about 52 v 48

    And I do think many SNP supporters may have been counting their chickens
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113

    Stocky said:

    My daughter`s been sent home from school because one pupil has tested positive. She was within two metres of him once - last Wednesday. She`s really upset about missing school.

    How long was she within 2m? Presumably she only has to isolate for 10 days too?
    One lesson.

    Ten days takes her past the end of term, so she doesn`t go back until January.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Morning @CorrectHorseBattery thanks for your earlier greetings and good to see you back
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    edited December 2020
    HYUFD said:

    The EC will elect Biden today and that will be that, under the US constitution he will officially be President elect

    It ought to be.
    Otherwise Betfair would appear to be in on the same style of grift as Trump himself, making money out of the lost causers.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited December 2020
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    New Jersey hits 2,000/million deaths. 14 states and DC now over 1,000/m.

    Slovenia also passes 1,000/m. UK next up (currently 943/m).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Hopefully, today is Betfair pay day!

    Meanwhile, one for SPOTY-watchers: what’s going on here? Is this an elaborate plan, a publicity stunt, or an athlete who genuinely doesn’t want to be nominated?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2020/12/14/tyson-fury-takes-legal-action-against-bbc-sports-personality/
  • Stocky said:

    My daughter`s been sent home from school because one pupil has tested positive. She was within two metres of him once - last Wednesday. She`s really upset about missing school.

    It's odd really, because my general impression of my local neighbourhood is people are pretty much carrying on as if this is over, other than pub and restaurant visiting.
  • HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    The Greens don't stand in constituencies. As they are tacit coalition partners, they only stand in the list so that they can maximise the SNP/Grn MSP totals
  • Either a typo or the biggest betting market in the history of the Universe "...The total of matched bets on Betfair is now heading for £1.7m BILLION.. "

    £1.7m billion = 1.7x10^6 x 10^9 = £1.7x10^15 or £1,500 trillion.

    That could sort out the UK's national debt and maybe even buy the entire EU in order to make Brexit better :D:D
  • The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has told member states that there could be a short no deal period at the beginning of January even if a deal is reached with the UK in the coming days, RTÉ News understands.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    Collaboration between SNP and Green, to encourage Green list votes. SNP list votes are pretty much worthless under the ‘top-up’ system, if they get a high number of constituency seats.
  • The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has told member states that there could be a short no deal period at the beginning of January even if a deal is reached with the UK in the coming days, RTÉ News understands.

    I have expeected that for some time
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    If they kept the restrictions over Christmas, Dan would instead be tweeting about how heartless the government is for not letting people see their families at ‘this special time’.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113

    Stocky said:

    My daughter`s been sent home from school because one pupil has tested positive. She was within two metres of him once - last Wednesday. She`s really upset about missing school.

    It's odd really, because my general impression of my local neighbourhood is people are pretty much carrying on as if this is over, other than pub and restaurant visiting.
    Yes, same here. In contrast, the self-isolation rules being imposed by schools are very rigid. A few friends have been similarly affected with this, sometimes a child has been tested but we are not sure why as no illness is apparent and we have not heard of any illness, child or teacher, emanating from these positive test results.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Sandpit said:

    Hopefully, today is Betfair pay day!

    Meanwhile, one for SPOTY-watchers: what’s going on here? Is this an elaborate plan, a publicity stunt, or an athlete who genuinely doesn’t want to be nominated?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2020/12/14/tyson-fury-takes-legal-action-against-bbc-sports-personality/

    I knew he'd asked to be removed. Didnt think he'd get lawyers involved.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has told member states that there could be a short no deal period at the beginning of January even if a deal is reached with the UK in the coming days, RTÉ News understands.

    Once again, Barnier showing he's the roadblock in all of this. If there's a deal agreed then some short extension will be approved to get it ratified.
  • The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has told member states that there could be a short no deal period at the beginning of January even if a deal is reached with the UK in the coming days, RTÉ News understands.

    I have expeected that for some time
    I think a lot of us have, but some on PB expect that No Deal period to be the chaos that makes the UK apply to EFTA/EEA tout de suite
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    The Greens don't stand in constituencies. As they are tacit coalition partners, they only stand in the list so that they can maximise the SNP/Grn MSP totals
    Ah yes. Makes sense thanks.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    Covid: London likely to move to tier 3 amid rising rates

    "London faces a move to tier three - England's highest level of coronavirus restrictions - in the coming days, the BBC has been told."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55301192
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    I seldom agree with Dan. But spot on.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    CatMan said:

    Covid: London likely to move to tier 3 amid rising rates

    "London faces a move to tier three - England's highest level of coronavirus restrictions - in the coming days, the BBC has been told."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55301192

    If they do this will that cover the Christmas period?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,946
    edited December 2020
    I go both ways on this. Compliance is already pretty low and it may not make much difference to people's actions anyway. But on the other hand, we are almost there.

    (Speaking as someone who doesn't give a monkey's about Christmas, except as an excuse for a holiday somewhere sunny.)
  • Sandpit said:

    If they kept the restrictions over Christmas, Dan would instead be tweeting about how heartless the government is for not letting people see their families at ‘this special time’.
    Well indeed.

    I'm not seeing anyone at Christmas but if anyone does I don't think it should be a matter for the Police.

    The restrictions that have been put in place for Christmas are still quite draconian compared to normal. If there had been no lifting at all then many would have just totally ignored them and it would have become a free for all.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    Collaboration between SNP and Green, to encourage Green list votes. SNP list votes are pretty much worthless under the ‘top-up’ system, if they get a high number of constituency seats.
    Cheers mr pit. Wonder how they'd get on post any independence.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Hi all,

    I've done a short piece that might work as a Header. Not sure. Can always just post as normal of course, no probs doing that, but I'm wondering what the submission procedure is?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    Collaboration between SNP and Green, to encourage Green list votes. SNP list votes are pretty much worthless under the ‘top-up’ system, if they get a high number of constituency seats.
    There is an SNP and Green Holyrood majority now, if that is the same result next year and there is no outright SNP majority Boris will just say no change and no SNP mandate and no indyref2
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    kinabalu said:

    Hi all,

    I've done a short piece that might work as a Header. Not sure. Can always just post as normal of course, no probs doing that, but I'm wondering what the submission procedure is?

    Message to OGH.
  • MaxPB said:

    The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has told member states that there could be a short no deal period at the beginning of January even if a deal is reached with the UK in the coming days, RTÉ News understands.

    Once again, Barnier showing he's the roadblock in all of this. If there's a deal agreed then some short extension will be approved to get it ratified.
    If a deal is agreed there's no reason whatsoever not to include an implementation period as part of that.
  • Rugby's dirty secret...

    Aphiwe Dyantyi: South Africa wing given four-year ban for doping

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/55300866
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    I was watching Sky News and was amazed to see Peter Cushing wasn't dead but it turned out to be Peter Bone.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited December 2020

    HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    The Scottish parliament voting system is a hybrid DeHondt. About half the seats are first past the post and the others are handed out on a list system on a proportional basis, taking into account seats already won FPTP. Voters get a vote for the constituency and a vote for list. SNP will max out on the FPTP constituency seats, so a proportion of their voters will switch their list vote to other parties that are more likely to pick up list seats. Most likely the Greens, who also support independence.
  • The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has told member states that there could be a short no deal period at the beginning of January even if a deal is reached with the UK in the coming days, RTÉ News understands.

    I have expeected that for some time
    I think a lot of us have, but some on PB expect that No Deal period to be the chaos that makes the UK apply to EFTA/EEA tout de suite
    I am still of the opinion that will be the final landing zone but maybe via Starmer winning in 2024 but not much before
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    It is - but virtually everywhere in Europe is doing the same. I think it is a recognition that government can only do so much - they have heavily recommended that people be cautious and sometimes people must make their own choices.
  • Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Hi all,

    I've done a short piece that might work as a Header. Not sure. Can always just post as normal of course, no probs doing that, but I'm wondering what the submission procedure is?

    Message to OGH.
    Or TSE. Mine I've had published went via TSE.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Sandpit said:

    If they kept the restrictions over Christmas, Dan would instead be tweeting about how heartless the government is for not letting people see their families at ‘this special time’.
    Absolutely - the irresponsibility of the press wrt to CV19 continues to exceed almost all other failings.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    Dura_Ace said:

    I was watching Sky News and was amazed to see Peter Cushing wasn't dead but it turned out to be Peter Bone.

    He must be alive. He was in Rogue One!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Dura_Ace said:

    I was watching Sky News and was amazed to see Peter Cushing wasn't dead but it turned out to be Peter Bone.

    It`s always amused me that Peter Bone`s constituency is in the rough circle in Northamptonshire made by Wellingboough, Kettering, Rushden and Raunds, that is know locally as the "arsehole of the county".
  • HYUFD said:
    That cannot be right if you read this forum
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    kinabalu said:

    Hi all,

    I've done a short piece that might work as a Header. Not sure. Can always just post as normal of course, no probs doing that, but I'm wondering what the submission procedure is?

    Prostration before OGH?
  • Sandpit said:

    If they kept the restrictions over Christmas, Dan would instead be tweeting about how heartless the government is for not letting people see their families at ‘this special time’.
    Well indeed.

    I'm not seeing anyone at Christmas but if anyone does I don't think it should be a matter for the Police.

    The restrictions that have been put in place for Christmas are still quite draconian compared to normal. If there had been no lifting at all then many would have just totally ignored them and it would have become a free for all.
    I do agree with you. There was a way around it: Lay it on thick.

    A government with credibility and trust could have laid it out straight. If you meet your friends and family for Christmas you might kill them. I know that its yet another thing we have to endure but endure we must. There will be other Christmases if we stall alive and healthy.

    But of course we have this government.
  • Sandpit said:

    If they kept the restrictions over Christmas, Dan would instead be tweeting about how heartless the government is for not letting people see their families at ‘this special time’.
    Well indeed.

    I'm not seeing anyone at Christmas but if anyone does I don't think it should be a matter for the Police.

    The restrictions that have been put in place for Christmas are still quite draconian compared to normal. If there had been no lifting at all then many would have just totally ignored them and it would have become a free for all.
    I do agree with you. There was a way around it: Lay it on thick.

    A government with credibility and trust could have laid it out straight. If you meet your friends and family for Christmas you might kill them. I know that its yet another thing we have to endure but endure we must. There will be other Christmases if we stall alive and healthy.

    But of course we have this government.
    But all four parts of the UK are the same so this is agreed UK wide
  • kinabalu said:

    Hi all,

    I've done a short piece that might work as a Header. Not sure. Can always just post as normal of course, no probs doing that, but I'm wondering what the submission procedure is?

    Please send to me at mike at politicalbetting.com
  • Mrs C, is the Betfair CEO Dr. Evil?
  • Sandpit said:

    If they kept the restrictions over Christmas, Dan would instead be tweeting about how heartless the government is for not letting people see their families at ‘this special time’.
    Well indeed.

    I'm not seeing anyone at Christmas but if anyone does I don't think it should be a matter for the Police.

    The restrictions that have been put in place for Christmas are still quite draconian compared to normal. If there had been no lifting at all then many would have just totally ignored them and it would have become a free for all.
    I do agree with you. There was a way around it: Lay it on thick.

    A government with credibility and trust could have laid it out straight. If you meet your friends and family for Christmas you might kill them. I know that its yet another thing we have to endure but endure we must. There will be other Christmases if we stall alive and healthy.

    But of course we have this government.
    Which is of course what they have done too. They have said they don't recommend it, they don't think it's a good idea to be hugging people, they don't recommend seeing anyone vulnerable and to be "jolly careful".

    And of course every adult in this country should be a sentient adult. If anyone in this country does not know that meeting people is risky then what kind of rock have they been hiding under for the last nine months? And what message will get through now?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    The Scottish parliament voting system is a hybrid DeHondt. About half the seats are first past the post and the others are handed out on a list system on a proportional basis, taking into account seats already won FPTP. Voters get a vote for the constituency and a vote for list. SNP will max out on the FPTP constituency seats, so a proportion of their voters will switch their list vote to other parties that are more likely to pick up list seats. Most likely the Greens, who also support independence.
    Loving all these Scottish election experts thanks. If the SNP set up a sister party called SNP2 which only stood in the proportional list while SNP only stood on the FPTP seats could they get more seats between them?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340

    HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    Because the SNP win virtually all constituencies. Therefore a list vote is unlikely to count for much. Many vote Green as a proxy.
  • Somebody has been very naughty...

    https://projectforpeaceandjustice.com/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited December 2020
    I see somebody challenged Starmer on his calls for a circuit breaker and he just billy bullshitted, claiming that is what we ended up having in England.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    edited December 2020
    Betfair shouldn't keep the market open longer than today. If they do, they're

    i) Withholding payment to Biden backers
    ii) Allowing Trump backers to bet into a market which by Betfair's own rules should already be settled.

    Today is the limit of what they could push things to, any further and lawyers/IBAS/gambling commission should be called to step in.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    kinabalu said:

    Hi all,

    I've done a short piece that might work as a Header. Not sure. Can always just post as normal of course, no probs doing that, but I'm wondering what the submission procedure is?

    Eagerly awaited. About time you did a header.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    The Scottish parliament voting system is a hybrid DeHondt. About half the seats are first past the post and the others are handed out on a list system on a proportional basis, taking into account seats already won FPTP. Voters get a vote for the constituency and a vote for list. SNP will max out on the FPTP constituency seats, so a proportion of their voters will switch their list vote to other parties that are more likely to pick up list seats. Most likely the Greens, who also support independence.
    Loving all these Scottish election experts thanks. If the SNP set up a sister party called SNP2 which only stood in the proportional list while SNP only stood on the FPTP seats could they get more seats between them?
    You mean the Scottish Greens ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Sandpit said:

    Hopefully, today is Betfair pay day!

    Meanwhile, one for SPOTY-watchers: what’s going on here? Is this an elaborate plan, a publicity stunt, or an athlete who genuinely doesn’t want to be nominated?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2020/12/14/tyson-fury-takes-legal-action-against-bbc-sports-personality/

    I knew he'd asked to be removed. Didnt think he'd get lawyers involved.
    Indeed.

    Can’t imagine the BBC would let someone stand against their will, nor hand the award to someone refusing to participate in the show, or someone with an unstable personality, known addiction issues and likely to make a total c#@t of the BBC on live TV.

    So, is this something stagemanaged between Fury and the BBC to increase ratings when there’s a pretty clear winner, is it Fury trying to embarrass the BBC by having all his fans vote for him and then not turn up, or does he genuinely not want to be considered for the award?

    Some of us have been betting on him since almost this time last year, the market was hugely distorted by the postponement of the Olympics.
    Disclaimer: I make a lot of money if he wins, and a bit of money if he’s placed.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    Somebody has been very naughty...

    https://projectforpeaceandjustice.com/

    It's funny and the image of 4 white folk in shorts immediately made me think of 'Tomorrow belongs to me' from Cabaret.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    kinabalu said:

    Hi all,

    I've done a short piece that might work as a Header. Not sure. Can always just post as normal of course, no probs doing that, but I'm wondering what the submission procedure is?

    Please send to me at mike at politicalbetting.com
    Ok great thanks. Will do.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Somebody has been very naughty...

    https://projectforpeaceandjustice.com/

    That’s very well done.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited December 2020
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hopefully, today is Betfair pay day!

    Meanwhile, one for SPOTY-watchers: what’s going on here? Is this an elaborate plan, a publicity stunt, or an athlete who genuinely doesn’t want to be nominated?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2020/12/14/tyson-fury-takes-legal-action-against-bbc-sports-personality/

    I knew he'd asked to be removed. Didnt think he'd get lawyers involved.
    Indeed.

    Can’t imagine the BBC would let someone stand against their will, nor hand the award to someone refusing to participate in the show, or someone with an unstable personality, known addiction issues and likely to make a total c#@t of the BBC on live TV.

    So, is this something stagemanaged between Fury and the BBC to increase ratings when there’s a pretty clear winner, is it Fury trying to embarrass the BBC by having all his fans vote for him and then not turn up, or does he genuinely not want to be considered for the award?

    Some of us have been betting on him since almost this time last year, the market was hugely distorted by the postponement of the Olympics.
    Disclaimer: I make a lot of money if he wins, and a bit of money if he’s placed.
    I would guess he genuinely doesn't like the BBC. Remember he feels like he got stitched up by lots of the media over his religious beliefs / gay marriage comments. And he feels traveller folk also get a bad wrap from the media.

    He is an odd unpredictable character at the best of times, and I don't believe it is all about promotion. He did Joe Rogan podcast a while back and it sounds like at times he has been very unwell.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Just heard Roger Gale saying Johnson would have to resign if he didn't get a deal.
    Am very surprised by this.
  • HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    Green votes on the list.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    Collaboration between SNP and Green, to encourage Green list votes. SNP list votes are pretty much worthless under the ‘top-up’ system, if they get a high number of constituency seats.
    There is an SNP and Green Holyrood majority now, if that is the same result next year and there is no outright SNP majority Boris will just say no change and no SNP mandate and no indyref2
    And what happens if there’s an SNP outright majority?
    I think I can make a wild guess..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830
    Sandpit said:

    If they kept the restrictions over Christmas, Dan would instead be tweeting about how heartless the government is for not letting people see their families at ‘this special time’.
    Probably. But he's right on this nonetheless
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166

    FPT:

    Scott_xP said:
    Prepare for WTO terms stupid Dunt.

    Been told that for months. 🤦🏻‍♂️
    WTO terms. Will not work. For so many importers / exporters. YOU have been told that for months. But know better. Apparently.
    So frigging what?

    Sometimes things don't work out the way you want them to. We have been told to prepare for WTO terms. No if's or buts. No wait for the negotiations to end. Simple and clean message: prepare for WTO.

    You can squeal and complain and stamp your feet and hold your breath until you go blue in the face saying it is unfair and WTO terms don't work. Doesn't change anything though. If WTO terms occur then getting angry won't change anything.

    Dunt claims people have not been told what to prepare for, that is a lie. It is categorically untrue. People keep talking about the importance of honesty but this LIE by Dunt and others gets spread consistently

    Businesses have been told to prepare for WTO. Whether you like it or not. Whether it works or not. And it may be reality in a matter of days.
    It really is funny just how angry the winners are.

    Why hasn't business and industry spent money it hasn't got preparing for something that can't be implemented and may yet be bypassed? Hmmm let me see. They haven't spent money integrating their planning and logistics systems into the new world (18 days away) of doing paperwork because the system to do the paperwork on doesn't exist and the people who will be checking the paperwork haven't been hired.

    Business can't prepare for WTO when nobody can tell them definitively what tariffs will be applied. What delays there will be. What oncosts they have to factor in. They literally don't know how much to charge for goods already in transit but do know they can't afford to shoulder the costs themselves and can't afford to pass them on either.

    "WTO" is a sticking plaster excuse for us not knowing how we trade in 18 days. It is not a detailed guidance of costs, times, systems. In the retail sector the latest from both the producer and retailer sides of the food industry table is that everyone expects "WTO" to go away as an issue. They aren't preparing for something that will not work.
    I agree. It makes me laugh when people rant on about businesses preparing for WTO.

    As a simple example Nissan have already said that a no deal brexit would make their operation in Sunderland uncompetitive and it would have to close. I can only assume that some people think they should have closed it 'just in case'.

    Thing is, if they had taken that action those same people would be insisting that we all have to boycott Nissan for their lack of faith in the ability of the UK to get a good deal. It's all very tedious.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hopefully, today is Betfair pay day!

    Meanwhile, one for SPOTY-watchers: what’s going on here? Is this an elaborate plan, a publicity stunt, or an athlete who genuinely doesn’t want to be nominated?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2020/12/14/tyson-fury-takes-legal-action-against-bbc-sports-personality/

    I knew he'd asked to be removed. Didnt think he'd get lawyers involved.
    Indeed.

    Can’t imagine the BBC would let someone stand against their will, nor hand the award to someone refusing to participate in the show, or someone with an unstable personality, known addiction issues and likely to make a total c#@t of the BBC on live TV.

    So, is this something stagemanaged between Fury and the BBC to increase ratings when there’s a pretty clear winner, is it Fury trying to embarrass the BBC by having all his fans vote for him and then not turn up, or does he genuinely not want to be considered for the award?

    Some of us have been betting on him since almost this time last year, the market was hugely distorted by the postponement of the Olympics.
    Disclaimer: I make a lot of money if he wins, and a bit of money if he’s placed.
    He really doesn't like the BBC. At all. In general I don't think he cares about awards, wants to do his winning in the ring.
  • Either a typo or the biggest betting market in the history of the Universe "...The total of matched bets on Betfair is now heading for £1.7m BILLION.. "

    £1.7m billion = 1.7x10^6 x 10^9 = £1.7x10^15 or £1,500 trillion.

    That could sort out the UK's national debt and maybe even buy the entire EU in order to make Brexit better :D:D

    Or m means milli, so a millibillion would be a million...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830
    CatMan said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I was watching Sky News and was amazed to see Peter Cushing wasn't dead but it turned out to be Peter Bone.

    He must be alive. He was in Rogue One!
    The more convincing CGI face effect of that movie.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hopefully, today is Betfair pay day!

    Meanwhile, one for SPOTY-watchers: what’s going on here? Is this an elaborate plan, a publicity stunt, or an athlete who genuinely doesn’t want to be nominated?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2020/12/14/tyson-fury-takes-legal-action-against-bbc-sports-personality/

    I knew he'd asked to be removed. Didnt think he'd get lawyers involved.
    Indeed.

    Can’t imagine the BBC would let someone stand against their will, nor hand the award to someone refusing to participate in the show, or someone with an unstable personality, known addiction issues and likely to make a total c#@t of the BBC on live TV.

    So, is this something stagemanaged between Fury and the BBC to increase ratings when there’s a pretty clear winner, is it Fury trying to embarrass the BBC by having all his fans vote for him and then not turn up, or does he genuinely not want to be considered for the award?

    Some of us have been betting on him since almost this time last year, the market was hugely distorted by the postponement of the Olympics.
    Disclaimer: I make a lot of money if he wins, and a bit of money if he’s placed.
    I would guess he genuinely doesn't like the BBC. Remember he feels like he got stitched up by lots of the media over his religious beliefs / gay marriage comments. And he feels traveller folk also get a bad wrap from the media.

    He is an odd unpredictable character at the best of times, and I don't believe it is all about promotion. He did Joe Rogan podcast a while back and it sounds like at times he has been very unwell.
    Yes, he was very open about his demons in that interview, unusually so for a boxer.

    Maybe he’s simply in a bad place at the moment, and doesn’t think he’d get a fair hearing from the Beeb.

    I might lay him back half way, definitely a two horse race now, between Hamilton and O’Sullivan.
  • dixiedean said:

    Just heard Roger Gale saying Johnson would have to resign if he didn't get a deal.
    Am very surprised by this.

    Roger Gale is out of touch.

    Not only did he vote Remain he was one of all Two Tory MPs total to reject the Internal Market Bill. He was also strongly against equal marriage and in favour of capital punishment though I don't know if he still is to be fair.

    So I don't see why he should be listened to? Takes more than 2 MPs to bring down a PM.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Betfair shouldn't keep the market open longer than today. If they do, they're

    i) Withholding payment to Biden backers
    ii) Allowing Trump backers to bet into a market which by Betfair's own rules should already be settled.

    Today is the limit of what they could push things to, any further and lawyers/IBAS/gambling commission should be called to step in.

    You are right but it is no certainty that Betfair will play fair, They are obsessed with throughput, and if they think they can milk the market for ore commission they may keep it open whatever anybody else thinks.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830
    edited December 2020

    Sandpit said:

    Hopefully, today is Betfair pay day!

    Meanwhile, one for SPOTY-watchers: what’s going on here? Is this an elaborate plan, a publicity stunt, or an athlete who genuinely doesn’t want to be nominated?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2020/12/14/tyson-fury-takes-legal-action-against-bbc-sports-personality/

    I knew he'd asked to be removed. Didnt think he'd get lawyers involved.
    Getting the lawyers elevates it from genuine to attention seeking in my view. It's such an inconsequential issue making his feelings clear was sufficient and getting the lawyers involved just looks like a petty person trying to make more drama out of it, like most bullcrap that comes from boxers.

    But I wouldn't say that to his face.

    I literally couldn't, hes got more than a foot on me.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Wow Google seems to have fallen.
  • I can't see BF paying now until Biden is holding the bible in his hand in late January.

    It does become more and more unjustifiable from Betfair.

    I had some sympathy with them while legal challenges were ongoing to certification (even though a lot of us knew those were meritless) because there was a tiny chance they may have paid out £1 billion in error. But those are now over, and the market rules state the decisive matter is projected Electoral College votes. We know the projected Electoral College vote and today we will know the actual Electoral College vote (although the Betfair rules also state faithless electors don't count so it should be enough already).

    Even if Republicans in Congress were to find a mechanism to overturn the Electoral College result and deny Biden the Presidency when it comes to the floor on 6th January (which is inconceivable in my view, but for the sake of argument) it wouldn't matter. Ditto if Biden were to be incapacitated and unable to take office on 20th January. Under the specific terms of the market, it's now over.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited December 2020
    For those hoping that BF will settle today/tomorrow, see what they have been telling Trump supporters below.

    "Won`t settle while it is contested".

    You may need incognito or Opera browser to view.

    Edit: the link below may not work if you just click on it. Instead, try copy and paste of the link.
    twitter.com/NickOwen4/status/1338226962377154562



    https://twitter.com/NickOwen4/status/1338226962377154562
  • Pulpstar said:

    Betfair shouldn't keep the market open longer than today. If they do, they're

    i) Withholding payment to Biden backers
    ii) Allowing Trump backers to bet into a market which by Betfair's own rules should already be settled.

    Today is the limit of what they could push things to, any further and lawyers/IBAS/gambling commission should be called to step in.

    You are right but it is no certainty that Betfair will play fair, They are obsessed with throughput, and if they think they can milk the market for ore commission they may keep it open whatever anybody else thinks.

    Has extending this market actually increased BF's commission?

    I think the Bets Matched stat is very misleading in this respect.
  • Corbyn's faux Church "Peace and Justice Initiative". I assume that it will be registered with the electoral commission as the Peace and Justice Party?
  • FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    The Scottish parliament voting system is a hybrid DeHondt. About half the seats are first past the post and the others are handed out on a list system on a proportional basis, taking into account seats already won FPTP. Voters get a vote for the constituency and a vote for list. SNP will max out on the FPTP constituency seats, so a proportion of their voters will switch their list vote to other parties that are more likely to pick up list seats. Most likely the Greens, who also support independence.
    Loving all these Scottish election experts thanks. If the SNP set up a sister party called SNP2 which only stood in the proportional list while SNP only stood on the FPTP seats could they get more seats between them?
    There are various proposals for that to happen, to the point I think of a couple of names being registered, but the thought of looking up those names makes me lose the will to live. However all these people hate each other and the SNP, so fruitful collaboration looks unlikely. In fact unless Salmond gets involved in one of these projects I predict nil MSPs for them. Even with Salmond on board, a zero return is the more likely outcome.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited December 2020

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP also down on both the Holyrood constituency and regional list votes with Scottish Labour moving up to tied second with the Tories at the constituency level and ahead of the Tories on the list

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435574638776322?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1338435578195537922?s=20

    Why is there such a difference in the SNP VI between the 2 polls? IANAE on the Scottish electoral system.
    The Scottish parliament voting system is a hybrid DeHondt. About half the seats are first past the post and the others are handed out on a list system on a proportional basis, taking into account seats already won FPTP. Voters get a vote for the constituency and a vote for list. SNP will max out on the FPTP constituency seats, so a proportion of their voters will switch their list vote to other parties that are more likely to pick up list seats. Most likely the Greens, who also support independence.
    Loving all these Scottish election experts thanks. If the SNP set up a sister party called SNP2 which only stood in the proportional list while SNP only stood on the FPTP seats could they get more seats between them?
    Scotland is definitely the place for electoral system nerds. We have three different systems for Holyrood, Westminster and Council. When we were in the EU we had a fourth system again for the European Parliament.

    Edit. Yes to your query. The Greens somewhat fulfil that role. Also some people like the extra choice and the option of giving representation to smaller parties with a list vote.

    * Arguably an extra system for Council byelections, which are decided on AV.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Betfair shouldn't keep the market open longer than today. If they do, they're

    i) Withholding payment to Biden backers
    ii) Allowing Trump backers to bet into a market which by Betfair's own rules should already be settled.

    Today is the limit of what they could push things to, any further and lawyers/IBAS/gambling commission should be called to step in.

    You are right but it is no certainty that Betfair will play fair, They are obsessed with throughput, and if they think they can milk the market for ore commission they may keep it open whatever anybody else thinks.

    Has extending this market actually increased BF's commission?

    I think the Bets Matched stat is very misleading in this respect.
    Why wouldn't it increase their commission? Literally hundreds of millions of pounds have been matched on the relevant markets since election day.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    Stocky said:

    For those hoping that BF will settle today/tomorrow, see what they have been telling Trump supporters below.

    "Won`t settle while it is contested".

    You may need incognito or Opera browser to view.

    https://twitter.com/NickOwen4/status/1338226962377154562

    Just because there are deluded backers doesn't mean Betfair should create a false market.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hopefully, today is Betfair pay day!

    Meanwhile, one for SPOTY-watchers: what’s going on here? Is this an elaborate plan, a publicity stunt, or an athlete who genuinely doesn’t want to be nominated?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2020/12/14/tyson-fury-takes-legal-action-against-bbc-sports-personality/

    I knew he'd asked to be removed. Didnt think he'd get lawyers involved.
    Getting the lawyers elevates it from genuine to attention seeking in my view. It's such an inconsequential issue making his feelings clear was sufficient and getting the lawyers involved just looks like a petty person trying to make more drama out of it, like most bullcrap that comes from boxers.

    But I wouldn't say that to his face.

    I literally couldn't, hes got more than a foot on me.
    That’s the worry, that he’s doing a pantomime dance with the BBC, to rile up his own fans to vote and get a higher TV audience - many of whom might not even have known about the show or the vote otherwise.
  • I can't see BF paying now until Biden is holding the bible in his hand in late January.

    It does become more and more unjustifiable from Betfair.

    I had some sympathy with them while legal challenges were ongoing to certification (even though a lot of us knew those were meritless) because there was a tiny chance they may have paid out £1 billion in error. But those are now over, and the market rules state the decisive matter is projected Electoral College votes. We know the projected Electoral College vote and today we will know the actual Electoral College vote (although the Betfair rules also state faithless electors don't count so it should be enough already).

    Even if Republicans in Congress were to find a mechanism to overturn the Electoral College result and deny Biden the Presidency when it comes to the floor on 6th January (which is inconceivable in my view, but for the sake of argument) it wouldn't matter. Ditto if Biden were to be incapacitated and unable to take office on 20th January. Under the specific terms of the market, it's now over.
    Agreed 100%.

    I disagreed with Peter and others wanting it paid out on projected votes prior to disputes being resolved. Projected votes were not finalised until SCOTUS ruled.

    They are finalised now. No if's or buts. Today they become actual votes.
  • MaxPB said:

    Wow Google seems to have fallen.

    Still working for me?
  • MaxPB said:

    Wow Google seems to have fallen.

    Just had a message from one of mine's schools implying that it's all the remote learning going on.

    But wow.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    edited December 2020

    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair shouldn't keep the market open longer than today. If they do, they're

    i) Withholding payment to Biden backers
    ii) Allowing Trump backers to bet into a market which by Betfair's own rules should already be settled.

    Today is the limit of what they could push things to, any further and lawyers/IBAS/gambling commission should be called to step in.

    You are right but it is no certainty that Betfair will play fair, They are obsessed with throughput, and if they think they can milk the market for ore commission they may keep it open whatever anybody else thinks.

    Has extending this market actually increased BF's commission?

    I think the Bets Matched stat is very misleading in this respect.
    Why wouldn't it increase their commission? Literally hundreds of millions of pounds have been matched on the relevant markets since election day.
    If people believe Kinnock won the 1992 General Election, would bookmakers be able to open a market on it ?

    It's telling that all the GOP congress critters whilst not saying Biden won all come out with "let the legal process play out". Most of them are playing a fine line with electoral tampering but haven't actually crossed it - Trump is probably over the line with his documented pressuring of vote certifiers mind.
    They all know it'll be Biden, just continuing to play their constituents for cash.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    For those hoping that BF will settle today/tomorrow, see what they have been telling Trump supporters below.

    "Won`t settle while it is contested".

    You may need incognito or Opera browser to view.

    https://twitter.com/NickOwen4/status/1338226962377154562

    Just because there are deluded backers doesn't mean Betfair should create a false market.
    I completely agree, but the point is that they are giving Trump backers a different message to their 27 November news release.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Betfair shouldn't keep the market open longer than today. If they do, they're

    i) Withholding payment to Biden backers
    ii) Allowing Trump backers to bet into a market which by Betfair's own rules should already be settled.

    Today is the limit of what they could push things to, any further and lawyers/IBAS/gambling commission should be called to step in.

    You are right but it is no certainty that Betfair will play fair, They are obsessed with throughput, and if they think they can milk the market for ore commission they may keep it open whatever anybody else thinks.

    Has extending this market actually increased BF's commission?

    I think the Bets Matched stat is very misleading in this respect.
    Why wouldn't it increase their commission? Literally hundreds of millions of pounds have been matched on the relevant markets since election day.
    If I bet at 10/1 with them, and then lay at 1/10, I stand still, but "bets matched" goes up.

    This problem is worse for short odds, as here.

    If I put £10,000 on Biden, I will win £300, or something like £6 to £15 of commission for Betfair. The starting point is already that a large "bet matched" is less profitable for BF than much smaller money at evens. However it is still £10,000 matched and, as above, if I trade out of it, the difference becomes even more stark.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair shouldn't keep the market open longer than today. If they do, they're

    i) Withholding payment to Biden backers
    ii) Allowing Trump backers to bet into a market which by Betfair's own rules should already be settled.

    Today is the limit of what they could push things to, any further and lawyers/IBAS/gambling commission should be called to step in.

    You are right but it is no certainty that Betfair will play fair, They are obsessed with throughput, and if they think they can milk the market for ore commission they may keep it open whatever anybody else thinks.

    Has extending this market actually increased BF's commission?

    I think the Bets Matched stat is very misleading in this respect.
    Why wouldn't it increase their commission? Literally hundreds of millions of pounds have been matched on the relevant markets since election day.
    If people believe Kinnock won the 1992 General Election, would bookmakers be able to open a market on it ?
    That election is over, the 2020 election isn't over yet.

    Blame the stupid US Constitution.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    Wow Google seems to have fallen.

    Still working for me?
    All of our docs have died and GCP is down.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    London into tier 3 today??

    Crivvens and crikey. And: shit
This discussion has been closed.